R03-ADVE-17/EDIT-01/THEO-03/THEO-01/THEO-02/ECON-05/EDIT-14/THEO-12/ADVE-22/THEO-14/EDIT-13/THEO-15: geo inference from the OOF predictions (laptop, 7 min)

Commit

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Simon-Pierre Boucher committed 5 days ago · Nov 4, 2026 parent bb142f5

9 changed files +241 −0 Browse files

added results/geo_inference/duplicates_random_split_v2.csv +4 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@`
	1	+model,n_test,n_test_with_train_duplicate,r2_all,r2_without_duplicates,r2_duplicates_only
	2	+ols_full_ols,156770,1119,0.6456102254377329,0.6459413892588407,0.5931454227446081
	3	+xgb_full_nested,156770,1119,0.8329228670019893,0.832566097545269,0.8854042950510388
	4	+xgb_full_fixed1000,156770,1119,0.8329228670019893,0.832566097545269,0.8854042950510388

added results/geo_inference/feasible_level_correction.csv +31 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@`
	1	+design,model,k_calibration,reps,r2_raw,r2_oracle_level,r2_feasible_median,r2_feasible_p25,r2_feasible_p75,r2_feasible_mean,median_state_r2_feasible
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added results/geo_inference/gap_bootstrap.csv +36 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@`
	1	+design,n_test,n_zip3,r2_ols,comparator,n_seeds,r2_comparator_mean,r2_comparator_sd,r2_comparator_min,r2_comparator_max,gap_ols_minus_comparator_mean,gap_sd_over_seeds,gap_min_over_seeds,gap_max_over_seeds,gap_seed42,gap_boot_se_zip3,gap_ci_low_zip3,gap_ci_high_zip3,n_draws
	2	+random,156770,885,0.6456102254377329,xgb_full_nested,5,0.8329723228255996,0.00021782254562833546,0.8326211326007648,0.8331774002388672,-0.18736209738786663,0.00021782254562833543,-0.18756717480113427,-0.18701090716303181,-0.1873126415642563,0.006017969917708394,-0.1988663863217556,-0.17552641948001713,1000
	3	+random,156770,885,0.6456102254377329,xgb_full_fixed1000,5,0.8329723228255996,0.00021782254562833546,0.8326211326007648,0.8331774002388672,-0.18736209738786663,0.00021782254562833543,-0.18756717480113427,-0.18701090716303181,-0.1873126415642563,0.006017969917708394,-0.1988663863217556,-0.17552641948001713,1000
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	32	+loso,783872,886,0.5734489975199385,xgb_full_nested,5,0.636502997352946,0.0012311074348327344,0.6351277637549587,0.6383276445351115,-0.0630539998330075,0.0012311074348327344,-0.06487864701517299,-0.06167876623502022,-0.06167876623502022,0.007317022731860359,-0.0756004944934514,-0.046551867688160546,1000
	33	+loso,783872,886,0.5734489975199385,xgb_full_fixed1000,5,0.6231141878406692,0.0022723622347106936,0.6193222887249745,0.6251736572823366,-0.04966519032073069,0.0022723622347106936,-0.05172465976239815,-0.045873291205036026,-0.049437355572542696,0.011684470856569507,-0.07164355883388375,-0.024923197822355105,1000
	34	+loso,783872,886,0.5734489975199385,xgb_full_fixed100,5,0.6394770799240842,0.0007851261740993866,0.638217484574553,0.6400803200649465,-0.06602808240414562,0.0007851261740993867,-0.06663132254500803,-0.06476848705461447,-0.06476848705461447,0.006368219980389966,-0.07723579221874591,-0.05185227603450512,1000
	35	+loso,783872,886,0.5734489975199385,xgb_plus_missing_nested,5,0.6315127343595497,0.0020243916101128257,0.6299077828063808,0.6340300128737546,-0.05806373683961119,0.0020243916101128257,-0.0605810153538161,-0.056458785286442326,-0.056458785286442326,0.007875672583089436,-0.0712267237605698,-0.04002317060564658,1000
	36	+loso,783872,886,0.5734489975199385,lgb_full_nested,1,0.6432447639419501,,0.6432447639419501,0.6432447639419501,-0.06979576642201157,,-0.06979576642201157,-0.06979576642201157,-0.06979576642201157,0.007166404316154107,-0.08514702866640139,-0.05696992689135108,1000

added results/geo_inference/gap_range.csv +5 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@`
	1	+comparator,designs,gap_min_design,gap_max_design,design_of_min,design_of_max,min_ci_low,max_ci_high,n_designs_ci_excludes_zero,n_designs
	2	+lgb_full_nested,random size_matched ten_state gkf_state gkf_zip3 gkf_zip5 loso,-0.16384827124480317,-0.024238133969622933,random,ten_state,-0.17471304172854035,-0.0036175993589945402,7,7
	3	+xgb_full_fixed100,random size_matched ten_state gkf_state gkf_zip3 gkf_zip5 loso,-0.12440235657573932,0.002889574965290587,random,ten_state,-0.1351430033908628,0.03699014354366216,6,7
	4	+xgb_full_fixed1000,random size_matched ten_state gkf_state gkf_zip3 gkf_zip5 loso,-0.18736209738786663,0.11560772802827142,random,ten_state,-0.1988663863217556,0.18375811086653077,7,7
	5	+xgb_full_nested,random size_matched ten_state gkf_state gkf_zip3 gkf_zip5 loso,-0.18736209738786663,0.026198804309241198,random,ten_state,-0.1988663863217556,0.07444823005360865,6,7

added results/geo_inference/loso_paired_tests.csv +6 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@`
	1	+comparison,n_states,mean_diff,median_diff,n_states_ols_better,sign_test_p,wilcoxon_p,paired_t_p,listing_weighted_mean_diff
	2	+OLS minus xgb_full_nested,51,-0.087179169375482,-0.08246785695275438,7,1.2115257419509362e-07,5.055926561021708e-07,6.307691028280957e-07,-0.07268818148628055
	3	+OLS minus xgb_full_fixed1000,51,-0.08822743249132595,-0.09930903526139512,11,5.703811637403078e-05,1.3657985654881168e-05,1.000334861257604e-06,-0.060277172709891184
	4	+OLS minus xgb_full_fixed100,51,-0.08345850718011777,-0.07588613364454688,5,2.3280151140170346e-09,3.0893518598250487e-07,1.1524834718701943e-06,-0.07589230780190707
	5	+OLS minus xgb_plus_missing_nested,51,-0.0885489073992876,-0.08378853527499308,6,1.8323628836469652e-08,4.155953299630489e-07,1.210200293519739e-06,-0.06785684081885968
	6	+OLS minus lgb_full_nested,51,-0.08266481204904233,-0.08227779809010227,7,1.2115257419509362e-07,1.1503972479053565e-05,4.882895337364143e-06,-0.07824044840098288

added results/geo_inference/loso_per_state.csv +52 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@`
	1	+state,n_test,r2_ols,r2_within_ols,mean_error_ols,r2_xgb_full_nested,r2_xgb_full_nested_sd,r2_within_xgb_full_nested,mean_error_xgb_full_nested,diff_ols_minus_xgb_full_nested,r2_xgb_full_fixed1000,r2_xgb_full_fixed1000_sd,r2_within_xgb_full_fixed1000,mean_error_xgb_full_fixed1000,diff_ols_minus_xgb_full_fixed1000,r2_xgb_full_fixed100,r2_xgb_full_fixed100_sd,r2_within_xgb_full_fixed100,mean_error_xgb_full_fixed100,diff_ols_minus_xgb_full_fixed100,r2_xgb_plus_missing_nested,r2_xgb_plus_missing_nested_sd,r2_within_xgb_plus_missing_nested,mean_error_xgb_plus_missing_nested,diff_ols_minus_xgb_plus_missing_nested,r2_lgb_full_nested,r2_lgb_full_nested_sd,r2_within_lgb_full_nested,mean_error_lgb_full_nested,diff_ols_minus_lgb_full_nested
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	49	+WA,11934,0.539720580933406,0.561422367269689,-0.09016926805456321,0.4796881832380775,0.0054585207174983035,0.626032487709375,-0.23412255428223566,0.06003239769532853,0.4071863077926469,0.016928083745408554,0.6264781237019569,-0.2865136296389891,0.1325342731407591,0.4796881832380775,0.0054585207174983035,0.626032487709375,-0.23412255428223566,0.06003239769532853,0.47034610612851646,0.019238902167817942,0.6266493910095507,-0.241714586036975,0.06937447480488956,0.45482683456027284,,0.623551098888484,-0.25141985654364807,0.08489374637313318
	50	+WI,9114,0.547760431711011,0.6263616206292151,-0.18012720657848075,0.6395688165249405,0.012719189608646507,0.6669736518822372,0.1050977653024244,-0.0918083848139295,0.7033278783969032,0.0037689921084205604,0.7040804881163295,0.016762453332413683,-0.15556744668589229,0.6269694227087417,0.015019383842600183,0.6583500399121119,0.11244668220816219,-0.07920899099773071,0.6579384139518485,0.006843936640375384,0.6805100641595514,0.09642616347978498,-0.11017798224083752,0.6679049485576153,,0.6857866726767485,0.08591509042777166,-0.12014451684660432
	51	+WV,3179,0.43000220999152006,0.5860707250243584,0.32405689948719074,0.26610609045596945,0.016829067043768953,0.5800065193791599,0.45947243772094054,0.1638961195355506,0.24094286014998767,0.01951439838182537,0.589664706263571,0.48430429602919806,0.1890593498415324,0.2604286816295454,0.01433165525327737,0.573217917143314,0.458701550221866,0.16957352836197465,0.27931859804406667,0.008802465935651751,0.5920933964648984,0.4587229640651655,0.1506836119474534,0.2607262712982442,,0.5898414602007485,0.4705844651710784,0.16927593869327584
	52	+WY,1653,0.48586860802326914,0.5193970387515139,0.1484338772079342,0.5393035740270868,0.01224750431380413,0.588617712305979,0.17960313020966442,-0.0534349660038177,0.5840775085296086,0.012097234417371592,0.634882739028803,0.18253098374722224,-0.09820890050633946,0.5338031787861255,0.008796761322347265,0.5788252654743781,0.1717538646512751,-0.04793457076285634,0.5398687432679086,0.004542804529636478,0.5811035852550546,0.16447457428872256,-0.054000135244639424,0.5045739270694296,,0.5711208805204148,0.20911756207630658,-0.018705319046160462

added results/geo_inference/loso_summaries.csv +7 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@`
	1	+model,median,listing_weighted_mean,unweighted_mean,p10,p90,min,max,n_states_gt_05,n_negative,median_abs_mean_error
	2	+ols,0.5512486894011834,0.5048358060300299,0.5161801982828872,0.3756707875883838,0.62319135272013,0.12850375934316993,0.7107035577268772,33,0,0.12711877701495605
	3	+xgb_full_nested,0.6340727066587656,0.5775239875163104,0.6033593676583691,0.4413239081793764,0.727063518865732,0.21954745334388742,0.7969200411989921,42,0,0.1050151071919545
	4	+xgb_full_fixed1000,0.6587952075544857,0.5651129787399211,0.6044076307742131,0.4071863077926469,0.7408022393146428,0.0013163488683741065,0.7665020628336742,43,0,0.10128986770048083
	5	+xgb_full_fixed100,0.6288625887091397,0.5807281138319369,0.5996387054630048,0.4482003605160704,0.72612449009739,0.22446995834288336,0.7724785449283543,42,0,0.11188017289442147
	6	+xgb_plus_missing_nested,0.649320643107839,0.5726926468488894,0.6047291056821746,0.4337234725290354,0.7365703514747539,0.12172864132810905,0.7925585689017476,42,0,0.09642616347978498
	7	+lgb_full_nested,0.641469103090226,0.5830762544310127,0.5988450103319295,0.3709724266955974,0.730368461933895,0.0942716310348396,0.7935684423446029,43,0,0.10170254137626654

added results/geo_inference/sse_decomposition.csv +54 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,54 @@`
	1	+design,model,seed,n,r2,r2_within_state_oracle,sse_within_share_state,sse_between_share_state,between_share_of_variance_state,r2_within_zip3_oracle,sse_within_share_zip3,sse_between_share_zip3,between_share_of_variance_zip3,r2_within_zip5_oracle,sse_within_share_zip5,sse_between_share_zip5,between_share_of_variance_zip5
	2	+random,ols_full_ols,42,156770,0.6456102254377329,0.6148446448470406,0.3243874887733237,0.030002285788943397,0.1577749486450799,,,,,,,,
	3	+random,ols_no_region_ols,42,156770,0.6187823683830618,0.6002203105822603,0.3367044694505098,0.044513162166428415,0.1577749486450799,,,,,,,,
	4	+random,ols_state_fe_no_region_ols,42,156770,0.6903480564883254,0.6324896215461213,0.3095264473667841,0.00012549614489048308,0.1577749486450799,,,,,,,,
	5	+random,xgb_full_nested,42,156770,0.8329228670019893,0.8019900146338617,0.16676897009349845,0.000308162904512281,0.1577749486450799,,,,,,,,
	6	+random,xgb_full_fixed1000,42,156770,0.8329228670019893,0.8019900146338617,0.16676897009349845,0.000308162904512281,0.1577749486450799,,,,,,,,
	7	+random,xgb_full_fixed100,42,156770,0.7703744387978304,0.7328709109089477,0.2249828107779229,0.004642750424246789,0.1577749486450799,,,,,,,,
	8	+random,xgb_plus_missing_nested,42,156770,0.8351479400748878,0.8045933825359355,0.1645763484284666,0.0002757114966456607,0.1577749486450799,,,,,,,,
	9	+random,lgb_full_nested,42,156770,0.8094584966825361,0.7746157535970795,0.18982425850128978,0.0007172448161741197,0.1577749486450799,,,,,,,,
	10	+size_matched,ols_full_ols,42,435574,0.648799759621949,0.6180845441702134,0.32146653819714094,0.02973370218091004,0.1582782699938351,,,,,,,,
	11	+size_matched,ols_no_region_ols,42,435574,0.6220670926940582,0.6028463783348263,0.3342928335062238,0.04364007379971798,0.1582782699938351,,,,,,,,
	12	+size_matched,ols_state_fe_no_region_ols,42,435574,0.6934217000980134,0.6358677192447,0.30649805330844176,8.024659354488493e-05,0.1582782699938351,,,,,,,,
	13	+size_matched,xgb_full_nested,42,435574,0.8294945125936812,0.7978467688594553,0.17015676744175007,0.00034871996456875814,0.1582782699938351,,,,,,,,
	14	+size_matched,xgb_full_fixed1000,42,435574,0.8294945125936812,0.7978467688594553,0.17015676744175007,0.00034871996456875814,0.1582782699938351,,,,,,,,
	15	+size_matched,xgb_full_fixed100,42,435574,0.7711365154454447,0.7335250096507145,0.22429778987985027,0.004565694674705041,0.1582782699938351,,,,,,,,
	16	+size_matched,xgb_plus_missing_nested,42,435574,0.831523500099118,0.8002280167096862,0.16815241938136635,0.00032408051951565155,0.1582782699938351,,,,,,,,
	17	+size_matched,lgb_full_nested,42,435574,0.8091463133745088,0.7741146979537803,0.19013256722130914,0.0007211194041820734,0.1582782699938351,,,,,,,,
	18	+ten_state,ols_full_ols,42,435553,0.5410240706619607,0.5733164979541343,0.3741548152473895,0.08482111409064973,0.12310925204891021,,,,,,,,
	19	+ten_state,ols_no_region_ols,42,435553,0.5329198869704466,0.5592132997677062,0.3865217792535889,0.08055833377596458,0.12310925204891021,,,,,,,,
	20	+ten_state,xgb_full_nested,42,435553,0.5062275140596075,0.6377064448560381,0.3176918665475986,0.1760806193927939,0.12310925204891021,,,,,,,,
	21	+ten_state,xgb_full_fixed1000,42,435553,0.4251463951360921,0.6292141410841008,0.3251386891543099,0.2497149157095981,0.12310925204891021,,,,,,,,
	22	+ten_state,xgb_full_fixed100,42,435553,0.5305429889620326,0.6310679946013724,0.32351306215690473,0.1459439488810626,0.12310925204891021,,,,,,,,
	23	+ten_state,xgb_plus_missing_nested,42,435553,0.5375724536356579,0.6381576277221372,0.31729622846698474,0.14513131789735736,0.12310925204891021,,,,,,,,
	24	+ten_state,lgb_full_nested,42,435553,0.5652622046315836,0.6430831660430818,0.3129770694848169,0.12176072588359947,0.12310925204891021,,,,,,,,
	25	+gkf_state,ols_full_ols,42,783872,0.5795287522457634,0.5871029449337679,0.3477621927855369,0.07270905496869974,0.15775085213491513,,,,,,,,
	26	+gkf_state,ols_no_region_ols,42,783872,0.5682669954021127,0.5762137115739873,0.35693364030371627,0.07479936429417108,0.15775085213491513,,,,,,,,
	27	+gkf_state,xgb_full_nested,42,783872,0.6278340371843459,0.6488925395731642,0.2957199593530173,0.07644600346263679,0.15775085213491513,,,,,,,,
	28	+gkf_state,xgb_full_fixed1000,42,783872,0.6174077727064935,0.6574782276087585,0.28848867092156744,0.09410355637193905,0.15775085213491513,,,,,,,,
	29	+gkf_state,xgb_full_fixed100,42,783872,0.6331131612549874,0.6460030267757475,0.29815364904473046,0.06873318970028214,0.15775085213491513,,,,,,,,
	30	+gkf_state,xgb_plus_missing_nested,42,783872,0.6367177326935938,0.6547887164310686,0.2907539094191257,0.07252835788728061,0.15775085213491513,,,,,,,,
	31	+gkf_state,lgb_full_nested,42,783872,0.6312238830022328,0.6507150233446679,0.29418497395002957,0.07459114304773773,0.15775085213491513,,,,,,,,
	32	+gkf_zip3,ols_full_ols,42,783872,0.6348350241981837,0.6063836541680407,0.3315230318627362,0.033641943939080196,0.15775085213491513,0.6172811760681788,0.2647568220213933,0.10040815378042309,0.3082210608262166,,,,
	33	+gkf_zip3,ols_no_region_ols,42,783872,0.6090573471896896,0.5931624223702672,0.3426586030781377,0.04828404973217266,0.15775085213491513,0.5920242134867638,0.28222905680271654,0.1087135960075939,0.3082210608262166,,,,
	34	+gkf_zip3,ols_state_fe_no_region_ols,42,783872,0.6726588135064769,0.6161574870671498,0.3232910294320859,0.004050157061437257,0.15775085213491513,0.6377459643316584,0.2505997125060673,0.0767414739874558,0.3082210608262166,,,,
	35	+gkf_zip3,xgb_full_nested,42,783872,0.7665553489094761,0.7273298361963993,0.22965621311157572,0.0037884379789481643,0.15775085213491513,0.7304504093393199,0.18646872988167426,0.0469759212088496,0.3082210608262166,,,,
	36	+gkf_zip3,xgb_full_fixed1000,42,783872,0.767803237198001,0.7287421261801093,0.22846671307613486,0.003730049725864093,0.15775085213491513,0.7310395595930259,0.18606116814416743,0.0461355946578315,0.3082210608262166,,,,
	37	+gkf_zip3,xgb_full_fixed100,42,783872,0.7368828553930022,0.6963544386036962,0.25574521533871675,0.007371929268280983,0.15775085213491513,0.7077573284160357,0.20216732532940554,0.06094981927759215,0.3082210608262166,,,,
	38	+gkf_zip3,xgb_plus_missing_nested,42,783872,0.7682166298536927,0.7291784221441137,0.22809924317240562,0.0036841269739017546,0.15775085213491513,0.7327025497501981,0.18491074657742032,0.04687262356888704,0.3082210608262166,,,,
	39	+gkf_zip3,lgb_full_nested,42,783872,0.7591104879007253,0.7185222901127251,0.23707436129557283,0.003815150803701895,0.15775085213491513,0.7242572632115589,0.19075301794038363,0.05013649415889109,0.3082210608262166,,,,
	40	+gkf_zip5,ols_full_ols,42,783872,0.6470557804860677,0.6161357038704817,0.3233093763109174,0.029634843203014797,0.15775085213491513,,,,,0.5931432406586912,0.1896427307870361,0.1633014887268961,0.533883298156179
	41	+gkf_zip5,ols_no_region_ols,42,783872,0.6202018330952841,0.6013493811759716,0.3357631440004266,0.04403502290428924,0.15775085213491513,,,,,0.5590128843005702,0.20555145992543772,0.17424670697927813,0.533883298156179
	42	+gkf_zip5,ols_state_fe_no_region_ols,42,783872,0.6906346374225547,0.6326980088057166,0.30935978909253414,5.5734849111070905e-06,0.15775085213491513,,,,,0.6193628959899757,0.1774213115205359,0.13194405105690934,0.533883298156179
	43	+gkf_zip5,xgb_full_nested,42,783872,0.814995745875507,0.780770691544276,0.18464569823357516,0.00035855589091771426,0.15775085213491513,,,,,0.7260624289530265,0.1276868771272466,0.05731737699724629,0.533883298156179
	44	+gkf_zip5,xgb_full_fixed1000,42,783872,0.814995745875507,0.780770691544276,0.18464569823357516,0.00035855589091771426,0.15775085213491513,,,,,0.7260624289530265,0.1276868771272466,0.05731737699724629,0.533883298156179
	45	+gkf_zip5,xgb_full_fixed100,42,783872,0.7636676554609991,0.7246856248296505,0.23188329788178935,0.0044490466572115065,0.15775085213491513,,,,,0.6930807827977747,0.14306017325451767,0.09327217128448319,0.533883298156179
	46	+gkf_zip5,xgb_plus_missing_nested,42,783872,0.8171244823973203,0.7832592697901222,0.18254969532662416,0.00032582227605556754,0.15775085213491513,,,,,0.7292579202279879,0.1261974052733938,0.056678112329285935,0.533883298156179
	47	+gkf_zip5,lgb_full_nested,42,783872,0.7989617117324068,0.7621734630780236,0.2003091980622388,0.0007290902053543231,0.15775085213491513,,,,,0.7144011896978093,0.13312237550857622,0.06791591275901689,0.533883298156179
	48	+loso,ols_full_ols,42,783872,0.5734489975199385,0.5920097421681496,0.34362944699613224,0.08292155548392931,0.15775085213491513,,,,,,,,
	49	+loso,ols_no_region_ols,42,783872,0.5644611719025954,0.5774533829123414,0.35588952817535474,0.07964929992204993,0.15775085213491513,,,,,,,,
	50	+loso,xgb_full_nested,42,783872,0.6351277637549587,0.657994084983488,0.28805419048702247,0.07681804575801883,0.15775085213491513,,,,,,,,
	51	+loso,xgb_full_fixed1000,42,783872,0.6228863530924812,0.6676215359986218,0.2799454780735698,0.09716816883394909,0.15775085213491513,,,,,,,,
	52	+loso,xgb_full_fixed100,42,783872,0.638217484574553,0.6530760593239839,0.2921963934080142,0.06958612201743286,0.15775085213491513,,,,,,,,
	53	+loso,xgb_plus_missing_nested,42,783872,0.6299077828063808,0.6596532640306689,0.2866567483486504,0.08343546884496877,0.15775085213491513,,,,,,,,
	54	+loso,lgb_full_nested,42,783872,0.6432447639419501,0.6591497344977245,0.2870808456688795,0.06967439038917041,0.15775085213491513,,,,,,,,

added results/geo_inference/two_by_two_region_rounds.csv +46 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@`
	1	+design,variant,rounds_rule,region_dummies,school_vars,r2_mean,r2_sd,n_seeds,r2_within_state_oracle,mdape,selected_rounds,median_fold_r2
	2	+ten_state,full,nested,True,True,0.5148252663527195,0.005193772828157293,5,0.6369917978820967,27.55908273603017,175.0,
	3	+ten_state,full,fixed100,True,True,0.5381344956966702,0.006995976159187171,5,0.6307178797352632,27.22907918488429,175.0,
	4	+ten_state,full,fixed1000,True,True,0.4254163426336892,0.014559686386052732,5,0.6280245523590041,29.744459321194274,175.0,
	5	+ten_state,no_region,nested,False,True,0.5274114981401111,,1,0.6265164365141151,28.631441405071676,300.0,
	6	+ten_state,no_region,fixed100,False,True,0.5199067385123349,,1,0.618787648751793,29.686152524205323,300.0,
	7	+ten_state,no_region,fixed1000,False,True,0.5210717274247431,,1,0.618823852046578,28.324961827811347,300.0,
	8	+ten_state,no_school,nested,True,False,0.4901196643702701,,1,0.6209794152574755,27.92575241677817,300.0,
	9	+ten_state,no_school,fixed100,True,False,0.536257798041633,,1,0.620220132944739,26.690061415568067,300.0,
	10	+ten_state,no_school,fixed1000,True,False,0.4066807718797706,,1,0.6066928134966423,30.4899020858462,300.0,
	11	+ten_state,no_school_no_region,nested,False,False,0.5155684933354511,,1,0.6071367430499568,27.47957583837256,300.0,
	12	+ten_state,no_school_no_region,fixed100,False,False,0.513158551433424,,1,0.6034606616839397,27.537374049655497,300.0,
	13	+ten_state,no_school_no_region,fixed1000,False,False,0.4876140535585622,,1,0.5946457813483892,28.18318781925044,300.0,
	14	+ten_state,plus_missing,nested,True,True,0.5225464569737828,0.010388667216276591,5,0.6395169785606303,26.938077607914447,300.0,
	15	+ten_state,plus_missing,fixed100,True,True,0.5596492793403864,0.007069819909388129,5,0.6302299974655697,26.61748212298192,300.0,
	16	+ten_state,plus_missing,fixed1000,True,True,0.4579936603270621,0.018515279689988163,5,0.6282367278179037,28.525981565298245,300.0,
	17	+loso,full,nested,True,True,0.636502997352946,0.0012311074348327344,5,0.6574798411185295,25.934554364592582,,0.634553496655507
	18	+loso,full,fixed100,True,True,0.6394770799240842,0.0007851261740993866,5,0.6534972663419438,25.702718867562844,,0.632452400332777
	19	+loso,full,fixed1000,True,True,0.6231141878406692,0.0022723622347106936,5,0.6660034999139086,25.588064837394406,,0.6586670877356726
	20	+loso,no_region,nested,False,True,0.6244586730440242,,1,0.6575885291510433,27.18554859106067,,0.6172923130326452
	21	+loso,no_region,fixed100,False,True,0.6137806520472747,,1,0.6476647712075461,27.56221846168708,,0.616122391167615
	22	+loso,no_region,fixed1000,False,True,0.623662979298638,,1,0.6578687103965071,26.79109364099834,,0.617547998013882
	23	+loso,no_school,nested,True,False,0.622470640520358,,1,0.6536265818495746,25.72127414736124,,0.6139543315659286
	24	+loso,no_school,fixed100,True,False,0.622400055221239,,1,0.6531003673785869,25.821479106351603,,0.6105026273843106
	25	+loso,no_school,fixed1000,True,False,0.5980908179923428,,1,0.6503838752944583,26.14702437491979,,0.6220137152759335
	26	+loso,no_school_no_region,nested,False,False,0.5931903749482679,,1,0.6472161024497249,27.086233587826115,,0.5934007541848625
	27	+loso,no_school_no_region,fixed100,False,False,0.592644108835983,,1,0.6459679625337396,27.405585973517333,,0.579392416320973
	28	+loso,no_school_no_region,fixed1000,False,False,0.5761749415165356,,1,0.639205580411338,26.90323489368596,,0.608034793284258
	29	+loso,plus_missing,nested,True,True,0.6315127343595497,0.0020243916101128257,5,0.661488229212057,25.939277750294234,,0.6475578083728143
	30	+loso,plus_missing,fixed100,True,True,0.6431472152433949,0.0007952569200288755,5,0.6561157174832714,25.578819591836112,,0.6317840354748598
	31	+loso,plus_missing,fixed1000,True,True,0.6140596634347704,0.009231631225101651,5,0.6701544572667524,25.52612315539925,,0.6587246471142698
	32	+gkf_state,full,nested,True,True,0.6277812558209507,0.0013163191487206535,5,0.6505987433023674,26.082397863577505,,0.6225984732013471
	33	+gkf_state,full,fixed100,True,True,0.6345218777603504,0.002286860454352599,5,0.6487464092180584,25.88917304945079,,0.6363683331533156
	34	+gkf_state,full,fixed1000,True,True,0.6145691447607312,0.002654180354443142,5,0.6591441664125097,26.11965840194182,,0.6278734817018109
	35	+gkf_state,no_region,nested,False,True,0.6231494365079198,,1,0.6560077917833376,27.115469757413756,,0.6339698242474012
	36	+gkf_state,no_region,fixed100,False,True,0.6140977426969149,,1,0.6477011632435524,27.46145803485898,,0.62687107981194
	37	+gkf_state,no_region,fixed1000,False,True,0.6295419001162207,,1,0.6584958866605184,26.611344030828576,,0.642357669323742
	38	+gkf_state,no_school,nested,True,False,0.6219672975984546,,1,0.6517703221415395,25.947583017698072,,0.6204556534925225
	39	+gkf_state,no_school,fixed100,True,False,0.6259014021176076,,1,0.6505709626948867,25.80638194717254,,0.6312659304920614
	40	+gkf_state,no_school,fixed1000,True,False,0.5885634961384596,,1,0.6475306510738124,26.460951455417987,,0.5945997604360154
	41	+gkf_state,no_school_no_region,nested,False,False,0.5929010388089913,,1,0.6404243032804562,27.54783797945464,,0.5715823418448281
	42	+gkf_state,no_school_no_region,fixed100,False,False,0.5914018569428643,,1,0.6406252265897561,27.68570163223792,,0.566994928733233
	43	+gkf_state,no_school_no_region,fixed1000,False,False,0.57671564693885,,1,0.6324559729344166,27.008581192126226,,0.5736451391066493
	44	+gkf_state,plus_missing,nested,True,True,0.6343627348965247,0.002204606000580103,5,0.6547788146410884,25.9991009451739,,0.6381340522639285
	45	+gkf_state,plus_missing,fixed100,True,True,0.6395409475657953,0.0014374430119788954,5,0.6517426662942354,25.705628323102268,,0.6381340522639285
	46	+gkf_state,plus_missing,fixed1000,True,True,0.6197571067568683,0.004036245557655796,5,0.6644775886777056,25.565642713163076,,0.6482356359750423
	47

spb wp3_uqo

R03-ADVE-17/EDIT-01/THEO-03/THEO-01/THEO-02/ECON-05/EDIT-14/THEO-12/ADVE-22/THEO-14/EDIT-13/THEO-15: geo inference from the OOF predictions (laptop, 7 min)

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