Commit
R03-EDIT-01/ADVE-01/ADVE-02/ADVE-03/ADVE-04/ADVE-16/ECON-01/ECON-06/EDIT-06/THEO-03/THEO-13/THEO-11: batch N1 metrics (M4BP48, 5 h)
OLS vs XGBoost (nested rounds) pooled out-of-fold R2 on the v2 design: random 0.646 vs 0.833; ZIP5-blocked 0.647 vs 0.815; ZIP3-blocked 0.635 vs 0.767; GroupKFold by state 0.580 vs 0.628; LOSO 0.573 vs 0.637; ten-state 0.541 vs 0.515 (XGB 1,000 rounds 0.425 reproduces v1.2; LightGBM nested 0.565). THEO-11: 1,856 held-out listings with |error| > 2 under the v1.1 OLS (not 204), carrying ~100% of the SSE; R2 = -1,955,902.5 reproduced. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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results/geo/fold_membership.csv
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| 1 | +design,fold,n_train,n_test,n_states_test,states_test,n_groups_test | |
| 2 | +random,random,627102,156770,51,, | |
| 3 | +size_matched,size_matched,348298,435574,51,, | |
| 4 | +ten_state,ten_state,348319,435553,10,CA CO FL GA IL NC NY OH TX WA,10.0 | |
| 5 | +gkf_state,fold1,626868,157004,7,AK FL MT NH OR UT WY,7.0 | |
| 6 | +gkf_state,fold2,626685,157187,9,HI LA MD NE NJ RI TX VT WA,9.0 | |
| 7 | +gkf_state,fold3,627528,156344,11,AL AR AZ CA DE ID KS MI MN MO SD,11.0 | |
| 8 | +gkf_state,fold4,627142,156730,12,CO CT GA MS ND NV OH OK TN VA WI WV,12.0 | |
| 9 | +gkf_state,fold5,627265,156607,12,DC IA IL IN KY MA ME NC NM NY PA SC,12.0 | |
| 10 | +gkf_zip3,fold1,627097,156775,44,,177.0 | |
| 11 | +gkf_zip3,fold2,627095,156777,45,,177.0 | |
| 12 | +gkf_zip3,fold3,627105,156767,46,,178.0 | |
| 13 | +gkf_zip3,fold4,627097,156775,49,,177.0 | |
| 14 | +gkf_zip3,fold5,627094,156778,45,,177.0 | |
| 15 | +gkf_zip5,fold1,627097,156775,51,,5279.0 | |
| 16 | +gkf_zip5,fold2,627097,156775,51,,5281.0 | |
| 17 | +gkf_zip5,fold3,627098,156774,51,,5280.0 | |
| 18 | +gkf_zip5,fold4,627098,156774,51,,5280.0 | |
| 19 | +gkf_zip5,fold5,627098,156774,51,,5280.0 | |
| 20 | +loso,AK,783064,808,1,AK,1.0 | |
| 21 | +loso,AL,766953,16919,1,AL,1.0 | |
| 22 | +loso,AR,773207,10665,1,AR,1.0 | |
| 23 | +loso,AZ,760001,23871,1,AZ,1.0 | |
| 24 | +loso,CA,736222,47650,1,CA,1.0 | |
| 25 | +loso,CO,766392,17480,1,CO,1.0 | |
| 26 | +loso,CT,779745,4127,1,CT,1.0 | |
| 27 | +loso,DC,782463,1409,1,DC,1.0 | |
| 28 | +loso,DE,781874,1998,1,DE,1.0 | |
| 29 | +loso,FL,651686,132186,1,FL,1.0 | |
| 30 | +loso,GA,751884,31988,1,GA,1.0 | |
| 31 | +loso,HI,778859,5013,1,HI,1.0 | |
| 32 | +loso,IA,775607,8265,1,IA,1.0 | |
| 33 | +loso,ID,779340,4532,1,ID,1.0 | |
| 34 | +loso,IL,764702,19170,1,IL,1.0 | |
| 35 | +loso,IN,769534,14338,1,IN,1.0 | |
| 36 | +loso,KS,777898,5974,1,KS,1.0 | |
| 37 | +loso,KY,773235,10637,1,KY,1.0 | |
| 38 | +loso,LA,768938,14934,1,LA,1.0 | |
| 39 | +loso,MA,778571,5301,1,MA,1.0 | |
| 40 | +loso,MD,774206,9666,1,MD,1.0 | |
| 41 | +loso,ME,780606,3266,1,ME,1.0 | |
| 42 | +loso,MI,764682,19190,1,MI,1.0 | |
| 43 | +loso,MN,775162,8710,1,MN,1.0 | |
| 44 | +loso,MO,769088,14784,1,MO,1.0 | |
| 45 | +loso,MS,777099,6773,1,MS,1.0 | |
| 46 | +loso,MT,779913,3959,1,MT,1.0 | |
| 47 | +loso,NC,754627,29245,1,NC,1.0 | |
| 48 | +loso,ND,782533,1339,1,ND,1.0 | |
| 49 | +loso,NE,779947,3925,1,NE,1.0 | |
| 50 | +loso,NH,781583,2289,1,NH,1.0 | |
| 51 | +loso,NJ,776551,7321,1,NJ,1.0 | |
| 52 | +loso,NM,779168,4704,1,NM,1.0 | |
| 53 | +loso,NV,773112,10760,1,NV,1.0 | |
| 54 | +loso,NY,759049,24823,1,NY,1.0 | |
| 55 | +loso,OH,764464,19408,1,OH,1.0 | |
| 56 | +loso,OK,771626,12246,1,OK,1.0 | |
| 57 | +loso,OR,774387,9485,1,OR,1.0 | |
| 58 | +loso,PA,768745,15127,1,PA,1.0 | |
| 59 | +loso,RI,782832,1040,1,RI,1.0 | |
| 60 | +loso,SC,763550,20322,1,SC,1.0 | |
| 61 | +loso,SD,781821,2051,1,SD,1.0 | |
| 62 | +loso,TN,759275,24597,1,TN,1.0 | |
| 63 | +loso,TX,682203,101669,1,TX,1.0 | |
| 64 | +loso,UT,777248,6624,1,UT,1.0 | |
| 65 | +loso,VA,768153,15719,1,VA,1.0 | |
| 66 | +loso,VT,782187,1685,1,VT,1.0 | |
| 67 | +loso,WA,771938,11934,1,WA,1.0 | |
| 68 | +loso,WI,774758,9114,1,WI,1.0 | |
| 69 | +loso,WV,780693,3179,1,WV,1.0 | |
| 70 | +loso,WY,782219,1653,1,WY,1.0 | |
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results/geo/metrics.csv
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results/geo/metrics_pooled.csv
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results/geo/n_corrupt_heldout.csv
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results/geo/rounds_selection.csv
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results/geo/trees_curves.csv
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