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# docs/risks.md — risk register (Phase 0, 2026-11-02; update at every gate)

# Risk Likelihood Impact Mitigation / decision Owner phase
R1 No FP64 on Metal → GPU estimates drift from FP64 references on long reductions (390 000 bars, ill-conditioned X'X) certain (verified) high FP32 + Kahan/pairwise reductions; sufficient statistics accumulated per chunk then combined in FP64 on CPU; mixed-precision policy per method; tolerances per method; GPU paths that cannot meet tolerance are flagged precision=fp32-approx, not silently accepted 3, 4
R2 GPU does not beat the 18-core CPU for small/medium workloads (realistic for 1-day RV on one series) high medium (it is a result, not a failure) Publish break-even charts and CPU-wins cases (charter §8); auto backend picks CPU below measured break-even 3, 6
R3 GARCH optimization on GPU unstable (nonconvex, constraints) medium medium GPU only evaluates batched likelihoods/gradients; CPU optimizer (L-BFGS-B / Nelder–Mead with transforms) drives; report convergence codes; never mark non-converged fits as success 4
R4 FinData rate limit (600/min) / export caps (31 d per 1m call, 12 y per export) certain low token bucket, retries with Retry-After, exports chunked ≤ 10 y, on-disk cache keyed by (dataset, version, symbol, range) with SHA-256 2
R5 Duplicate last session in exports (base + delta layouts, WP 39) high low dedupe on (instrument_id, timestamp_utc), counted in QualityReport 2
R6 License breach by committing real bars or figures that reveal raw prices low critical .gitignore for *.parquet/data/; pre-commit hook scanning for fd_ keys and large binaries; paper tables show only aggregates/ratios; fixtures synthetic all
R7 Secret leakage (FINDATA_API_KEY) in logs/manifests low critical client redacts Authorization header; manifests store key prefix hash only; scripts/check_no_secrets.sh in CI 2, 8
R8 Thermal throttling / background load on the laptop biases benchmarks medium medium record pmset -g therm, load average, and powermetrics when available; randomized order, warm-ups, ≥ 5 repetitions, medians + bootstrap CIs; rerun flagged outliers 6
R9 Cluster nodes lack Homebrew/cmake in SSH PATH; m2m8b lacks developer tools; 7 nodes unreachable certain low self-contained static bundle built on the laptop; nodes that stay unreachable are reported as "not tested" in E7 6
R10 Production interference (FinData on M3U96a, Ka apps on M4M64a/b, gateway M1M32) low high those nodes excluded from timing runs (M1M32: ≤ 2-minute microbench only, off-hours); never install software on nodes; no sudo 6
R11 Arrow C++ dependency makes wheels/Linux builds heavy medium medium Arrow optional (RAID_WITH_ARROW); core library and tests build without it; Parquet reader behind an interface; Python path can fall back to pyarrow → NumPy views 1
R12 clang 21 does not know -mcpu=apple-m5 certain low use -mcpu=apple-m4 on M5/M6 hosts (recorded in manifest); ISA difference irrelevant for the claims 1
R13 Reference software definitional differences (BPV constants, HARQ scaling, GARCH initialization, HAC bandwidth, DoF of HC corrections) high high (validation tables) per-method registry pins the exact competitor options; tests compare under identical conventions; discrepancies documented, not hidden 4
R14 Scope creep (Tier B/C lists) high medium gates: Tier B only after Tier A passes; Tier C only with validated inputs; RESEARCH_STATUS lists "not implemented" honestly 5
R15 Survivorship / PIT issues if a HAR-X uses fundamentals medium medium methods paper uses market covariates only (realized measures, returns, VIX-type indices from FinData index bars); no fundamentals in Tier A experiments 4, 6
R16 Nondeterministic GPU reductions (threadgroup scheduling) break bitwise reproducibility certain low deterministic reduction order within fixed threadgroup sizes; ExecutionPlan.deterministic=true forces fixed-order tree reductions; nondeterminism bound reported when disabled 3
R17 Energy claims without an instrument medium medium energy reported only from powermetrics samples (requires sudo on the laptop, password available to the owner); otherwise "not measured" 6
R18 Paper claims not traceable to artifacts medium high every table/figure generated by experiments/scripts/* from experiments/results/*.json with SHA-256 in experiments/manifests/; Phase 8 reproduction from clean checkout 7, 8
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