1\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small2\caption{Final: CRPS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)}3\label{tab:final_cmp_crps}4\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth}5\begin{tabular}{lcccc}6\toprule7Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\8\midrule9Seasonal volatility & -2.52\% (-27.7) & -2.85\% (-31.9) & -2.89\% (-26.3) & -3.07\% (-20.0) \\10EWMA-$t$ & -3.51\% (-39.0) & -3.59\% (-35.8) & -3.39\% (-29.7) & -3.14\% (-19.7) \\11HAR-RV & -2.20\% (-27.4) & -4.06\% (-44.9) & -4.11\% (-34.1) & -4.37\% (-24.8) \\12GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -3.38\% (-32.4) & -3.68\% (-29.1) & -3.44\% (-28.9) & -3.09\% (-17.8) \\13Ridge & -2.68\% (-23.5) & -4.10\% (-41.9) & -4.17\% (-34.0) & -4.42\% (-25.4) \\14Elastic net & -2.68\% (-23.5) & -4.10\% (-41.8) & -4.17\% (-34.0) & -4.42\% (-25.4) \\15LightGBM & -2.57\% (-22.2) & -3.87\% (-34.1) & -4.22\% (-34.6) & -4.41\% (-24.9) \\16MLP (1m) & -3.84\% (-52.8) & -3.84\% (-49.8) & -3.81\% (-41.0) & -3.85\% (-29.9) \\17TCN (1m) & -3.89\% (-47.5) & -3.74\% (-46.3) & -3.60\% (-39.0) & -3.55\% (-28.6) \\18MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -3.96\% (-42.3) & -3.89\% (-46.2) & -3.85\% (-39.6) & -3.91\% (-28.7) \\19MRPT-S (1m only) & -3.97\% (-42.4) & -3.91\% (-46.1) & -3.88\% (-39.5) & -3.92\% (-28.5) \\20MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -3.94\% (-42.7) & -3.87\% (-49.2) & -3.84\% (-40.3) & -3.89\% (-30.1) \\21\bottomrule22\end{tabular}23\end{adjustbox}24\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean CRPS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage}25\end{table}