1\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small2\caption{Main: CRPS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)}3\label{tab:main_cmp_crps}4\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth}5\begin{tabular}{lcccc}6\toprule7Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\8\midrule9Seasonal volatility & -2.89\% (-48.8) & -3.09\% (-49.9) & -3.22\% (-39.3) & -3.44\% (-30.7) \\10EWMA-$t$ & -3.65\% (-57.2) & -3.69\% (-53.4) & -3.60\% (-37.3) & -3.47\% (-25.5) \\11HAR-RV & -2.19\% (-35.7) & -4.36\% (-64.1) & -4.56\% (-47.4) & -4.89\% (-36.6) \\12GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -3.60\% (-57.1) & -3.77\% (-56.0) & -3.70\% (-40.5) & -3.40\% (-27.9) \\13Ridge & -2.88\% (-33.2) & -4.35\% (-58.3) & -4.55\% (-45.9) & -4.89\% (-36.2) \\14Elastic net & -2.88\% (-33.2) & -4.35\% (-58.2) & -4.56\% (-46.1) & -4.89\% (-36.2) \\15LightGBM & -2.88\% (-33.4) & -4.12\% (-51.1) & -4.56\% (-47.4) & -4.85\% (-37.6) \\16MLP (1m) & -3.94\% (-71.6) & -3.93\% (-68.6) & -3.94\% (-51.5) & -4.07\% (-38.7) \\17TCN (1m) & -3.93\% (-69.2) & -3.75\% (-65.1) & -3.68\% (-48.7) & -3.73\% (-37.3) \\18MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -4.05\% (-69.3) & -4.03\% (-67.0) & -4.05\% (-50.6) & -4.27\% (-39.7) \\19MRPT-S (1m only) & -4.02\% (-69.2) & -4.00\% (-66.9) & -4.00\% (-50.4) & -4.17\% (-39.6) \\20MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -4.04\% (-69.5) & -4.04\% (-67.2) & -4.06\% (-51.3) & -4.23\% (-39.8) \\21\bottomrule22\end{tabular}23\end{adjustbox}24\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean CRPS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage}25\end{table}