1\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small2\caption{Main (held-out): CRPS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)}3\label{tab:main_cmp_crps_heldout}4\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth}5\begin{tabular}{lcccc}6\toprule7Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\8\midrule9Seasonal volatility & -2.97\% (-36.7) & -3.03\% (-37.7) & -3.14\% (-31.0) & -3.38\% (-24.7) \\10EWMA-$t$ & -3.54\% (-43.0) & -3.45\% (-40.7) & -3.33\% (-29.4) & -3.23\% (-20.5) \\11HAR-RV & -2.99\% (-39.7) & -3.93\% (-48.4) & -4.04\% (-38.2) & -4.30\% (-30.5) \\12GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -3.28\% (-40.1) & -3.20\% (-38.6) & -3.06\% (-28.1) & -2.83\% (-19.5) \\13Ridge & -3.26\% (-32.0) & -3.86\% (-42.3) & -4.08\% (-35.6) & -4.43\% (-29.4) \\14Elastic net & -3.26\% (-32.0) & -3.85\% (-42.2) & -4.08\% (-35.5) & -4.44\% (-29.5) \\15LightGBM & -2.50\% (-22.6) & -3.74\% (-40.1) & -3.93\% (-33.4) & -4.30\% (-27.9) \\16MLP (1m) & -3.92\% (-49.8) & -3.85\% (-48.3) & -3.82\% (-37.5) & -3.98\% (-29.0) \\17TCN (1m) & -4.02\% (-52.1) & -3.90\% (-51.2) & -3.85\% (-40.0) & -3.98\% (-31.2) \\18MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -4.12\% (-51.7) & -4.07\% (-51.5) & -4.08\% (-40.7) & -4.34\% (-32.2) \\19MRPT-S (1m only) & -4.08\% (-51.3) & -4.02\% (-50.6) & -4.02\% (-40.1) & -4.25\% (-31.9) \\20MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -4.10\% (-52.0) & -4.04\% (-51.4) & -4.05\% (-40.8) & -4.29\% (-32.3) \\21\bottomrule22\end{tabular}23\end{adjustbox}24\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean CRPS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage}25\end{table}