1\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small2\caption{Main: mean scaled CRPS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)}3\label{tab:main_crps_scaled}4\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth}5\begin{tabular}{lcccc}6\toprule7Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\8\midrule9Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.4699 {\scriptsize[0.4648, 0.4754]} & 0.4575 {\scriptsize[0.4515, 0.4639]} & 0.4469 {\scriptsize[0.4412, 0.4538]} & 0.4347 {\scriptsize[0.4271, 0.4441]} \\10Seasonal volatility & 0.4582 {\scriptsize[0.4527, 0.4641]} & 0.4453 {\scriptsize[0.4390, 0.4519]} & 0.4347 {\scriptsize[0.4285, 0.4418]} & 0.4221 {\scriptsize[0.4139, 0.4320]} \\11EWMA-$t$ & 0.4547 {\scriptsize[0.4492, 0.4606]} & 0.4425 {\scriptsize[0.4363, 0.4491]} & 0.4326 {\scriptsize[0.4264, 0.4396]} & 0.4214 {\scriptsize[0.4133, 0.4314]} \\12HAR-RV & 0.4615 {\scriptsize[0.4563, 0.4671]} & 0.4403 {\scriptsize[0.4338, 0.4471]} & 0.4295 {\scriptsize[0.4230, 0.4369]} & 0.4166 {\scriptsize[0.4080, 0.4270]} \\13GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & 0.4558 {\scriptsize[0.4502, 0.4616]} & 0.4430 {\scriptsize[0.4367, 0.4497]} & 0.4333 {\scriptsize[0.4271, 0.4403]} & 0.4232 {\scriptsize[0.4153, 0.4328]} \\14Ridge & 0.4603 {\scriptsize[0.4542, 0.4667]} & 0.4405 {\scriptsize[0.4339, 0.4476]} & 0.4297 {\scriptsize[0.4231, 0.4371]} & 0.4167 {\scriptsize[0.4081, 0.4272]} \\15Elastic net & 0.4603 {\scriptsize[0.4543, 0.4668]} & 0.4406 {\scriptsize[0.4339, 0.4476]} & 0.4296 {\scriptsize[0.4231, 0.4370]} & 0.4167 {\scriptsize[0.4081, 0.4272]} \\16LightGBM & 0.4591 {\scriptsize[0.4531, 0.4655]} & 0.4415 {\scriptsize[0.4347, 0.4484]} & 0.4293 {\scriptsize[0.4228, 0.4366]} & 0.4166 {\scriptsize[0.4080, 0.4269]} \\17MLP (1m) & 0.4538 {\scriptsize[0.4484, 0.4598]} & 0.4421 {\scriptsize[0.4357, 0.4486]} & 0.4319 {\scriptsize[0.4258, 0.4388]} & 0.4197 {\scriptsize[0.4116, 0.4291]} \\18TCN (1m) & 0.4538 {\scriptsize[0.4484, 0.4597]} & 0.4427 {\scriptsize[0.4364, 0.4491]} & 0.4327 {\scriptsize[0.4265, 0.4396]} & 0.4207 {\scriptsize[0.4126, 0.4303]} \\19MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.4531 {\scriptsize[0.4476, 0.4590]} & 0.4414 {\scriptsize[0.4351, 0.4479]} & 0.4311 {\scriptsize[0.4249, 0.4381]} & 0.4187 {\scriptsize[0.4105, 0.4284]} \\20MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.4533 {\scriptsize[0.4478, 0.4592]} & 0.4416 {\scriptsize[0.4352, 0.4481]} & 0.4314 {\scriptsize[0.4251, 0.4382]} & 0.4192 {\scriptsize[0.4110, 0.4290]} \\21MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & 0.4532 {\scriptsize[0.4478, 0.4591]} & 0.4414 {\scriptsize[0.4351, 0.4479]} & 0.4312 {\scriptsize[0.4249, 0.4381]} & 0.4189 {\scriptsize[0.4107, 0.4287]} \\22\bottomrule23\end{tabular}24\end{adjustbox}25\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage}26\end{table}