1\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small2\caption{Pilot: CRPS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)}3\label{tab:pilot_cmp_crps}4\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth}5\begin{tabular}{lcccc}6\toprule7Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\8\midrule9Seasonal volatility & -1.98\% (-5.7) & -2.51\% (-6.6) & -2.69\% (-5.8) & -2.12\% (-3.4) \\10EWMA-$t$ & -2.83\% (-8.1) & -2.79\% (-6.7) & -2.62\% (-5.2) & -1.77\% (-2.3) \\11HAR-RV & -0.24\% (-0.7) & -3.20\% (-8.1) & -3.25\% (-7.0) & -3.04\% (-4.6) \\12GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -2.58\% (-8.9) & -2.63\% (-8.0) & -2.45\% (-7.2) & -1.60\% (-3.7) \\13Ridge & -2.06\% (-3.7) & -3.07\% (-5.7) & -3.29\% (-5.5) & -2.96\% (-4.1) \\14Elastic net & -2.14\% (-3.8) & -3.10\% (-5.8) & -3.31\% (-5.6) & -2.91\% (-3.9) \\15LightGBM & +3.20\% (3.7) & +1.62\% (2.0) & +1.59\% (1.5) & +2.49\% (1.8) \\16MLP (1m) & -3.08\% (-9.1) & -2.96\% (-8.3) & -3.01\% (-7.2) & -2.47\% (-4.2) \\17TCN (1m) & -3.11\% (-9.8) & -2.94\% (-7.8) & -3.16\% (-7.3) & -2.50\% (-4.0) \\18MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -2.96\% (-8.8) & -3.07\% (-7.9) & -3.36\% (-7.2) & -2.62\% (-4.2) \\19MRPT-S (1m only) & -3.00\% (-8.9) & -2.99\% (-7.8) & -3.16\% (-6.8) & -2.42\% (-3.9) \\20\bottomrule21\end{tabular}22\end{adjustbox}23\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean CRPS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage}24\end{table}