1\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small2\caption{Pilot: mean scaled CRPS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)}3\label{tab:pilot_crps_scaled}4\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth}5\begin{tabular}{lcccc}6\toprule7Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\8\midrule9Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.4803 {\scriptsize[0.4618, 0.5012]} & 0.4874 {\scriptsize[0.4641, 0.5093]} & 0.4952 {\scriptsize[0.4688, 0.5225]} & 0.4819 {\scriptsize[0.4381, 0.5395]} \\10Seasonal volatility & 0.4746 {\scriptsize[0.4545, 0.4957]} & 0.4793 {\scriptsize[0.4526, 0.5047]} & 0.4870 {\scriptsize[0.4569, 0.5190]} & 0.4767 {\scriptsize[0.4268, 0.5419]} \\11EWMA-$t$ & 0.4699 {\scriptsize[0.4502, 0.4912]} & 0.4775 {\scriptsize[0.4517, 0.5023]} & 0.4868 {\scriptsize[0.4561, 0.5196]} & 0.4773 {\scriptsize[0.4276, 0.5428]} \\12HAR-RV & 0.4833 {\scriptsize[0.4648, 0.5032]} & 0.4761 {\scriptsize[0.4492, 0.5019]} & 0.4845 {\scriptsize[0.4540, 0.5168]} & 0.4728 {\scriptsize[0.4223, 0.5391]} \\13GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & 0.4714 {\scriptsize[0.4522, 0.4932]} & 0.4783 {\scriptsize[0.4545, 0.5018]} & 0.4876 {\scriptsize[0.4602, 0.5167]} & 0.4789 {\scriptsize[0.4331, 0.5388]} \\14Ridge & 0.4734 {\scriptsize[0.4518, 0.4968]} & 0.4765 {\scriptsize[0.4494, 0.5028]} & 0.4842 {\scriptsize[0.4533, 0.5170]} & 0.4723 {\scriptsize[0.4216, 0.5368]} \\15Elastic net & 0.4732 {\scriptsize[0.4516, 0.4967]} & 0.4764 {\scriptsize[0.4494, 0.5026]} & 0.4841 {\scriptsize[0.4532, 0.5169]} & 0.4725 {\scriptsize[0.4217, 0.5371]} \\16LightGBM & 0.5090 {\scriptsize[0.4871, 0.5325]} & 0.5034 {\scriptsize[0.4756, 0.5308]} & 0.5116 {\scriptsize[0.4812, 0.5471]} & 0.5019 {\scriptsize[0.4484, 0.5765]} \\17MLP (1m) & 0.4689 {\scriptsize[0.4497, 0.4908]} & 0.4769 {\scriptsize[0.4522, 0.5015]} & 0.4847 {\scriptsize[0.4559, 0.5157]} & 0.4743 {\scriptsize[0.4250, 0.5390]} \\18TCN (1m) & 0.4687 {\scriptsize[0.4497, 0.4896]} & 0.4767 {\scriptsize[0.4526, 0.5008]} & 0.4838 {\scriptsize[0.4552, 0.5144]} & 0.4743 {\scriptsize[0.4252, 0.5388]} \\19MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.4697 {\scriptsize[0.4509, 0.4903]} & 0.4763 {\scriptsize[0.4526, 0.5001]} & 0.4831 {\scriptsize[0.4553, 0.5135]} & 0.4736 {\scriptsize[0.4238, 0.5381]} \\20MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.4693 {\scriptsize[0.4506, 0.4899]} & 0.4765 {\scriptsize[0.4527, 0.5006]} & 0.4842 {\scriptsize[0.4558, 0.5148]} & 0.4745 {\scriptsize[0.4245, 0.5395]} \\21\bottomrule22\end{tabular}23\end{adjustbox}24\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage}25\end{table}