WP41: held-out, ablation, final-period and copula results; full manuscript; phase 6-8 reports
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
218 changed files +18,151 −1,484
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README.md
+15 −3
@@ -36,9 +36,21 @@ calibration under stress; H4 coherent joint paths (low-rank Gaussian copula over | ||
| 36 | 36 | independent marginals; H5 (exploratory) economic content after assumed costs. Targets are return distributions |
| 37 | 37 | (per-minute Student-t marginals, cumulative returns, realised variance, tail events), never price levels. |
| 38 | 38 | |
| 39 | −## 🏆 Headline results | |
| 40 | − | |
| 41 | −Filled from `results/metrics/main`, `ablations`, `final` by `scripts/evaluate.py` — see `docs/PHASE_7_REPORT.md`. | |
| 39 | +## 🏆 Headline results (scaled CRPS of the cumulative return; 2024 development test, 986 468 origins; 2025 untouched, 1 008 425) | |
| 40 | + | |
| 41 | +| Object | 2024 (H=5 / H=60) | 2025 (H=5 / H=60) | | |
| 42 | +|---|---|---| | |
| 43 | +| Random walk (trailing scale) | 0.4699 / 0.4347 | 0.4759 / 0.4409 | | |
| 44 | +| HAR-RV (minute scale, Student-t) | 0.4615 / **0.4166** | 0.4674 / **0.4232** | | |
| 45 | +| MRPT-S multi-resolution (3.5 M params) | **0.4531** / 0.4187 | **0.4594** / 0.4256 | | |
| 46 | +| MRPT-S one-minute only | 0.4533 / 0.4192 | 0.4594 / 0.4257 | | |
| 47 | +| MRPT-B (20.7 M params) | 0.4532 / 0.4189 | 0.4595 / 0.4257 | | |
| 48 | +| H1 multi-res vs 1m-only | −0.04 % / −0.10 % (t −5) | +0.01 % / +0.01 % (Holm p ≥ 0.36) → **rejected in substance** | | |
| 49 | +| H2 zero-shot on 60 unseen instruments vs random walk | −4.1 % / −4.3 % (pooled −4.05 % / −4.27 %) → **no transfer penalty** | same in 2025 | | |
| 50 | +| H3 regime conditioning | +0.02 … +0.03 % CRPS, identical stress-day coverage → **rejected** | | | |
| 51 | +| H4 copula paths vs independent | energy −0.003 %, variogram −0.002 % (CIs ∋ 0) → **rejected** | | | |
| 52 | +| H5 economic content | corr(median, realised) ≤ 0.025; net 0.0 bp [−1.7, +1.8] at 1 bp cost → **rejected** | | | |
| 53 | +| Time-only inputs (no returns/volumes) | +0.2 … +0.3 % vs full model: ≈ 90 % of the skill is trailing volatility + clock | | | |
| 42 | 54 | |
| 43 | 55 | ## 🗂 Repository layout |
| 44 | 56 | |
modified
data/manifests/universe_synthetic.json
+8 −23
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ | ||
| 14 | 14 | "delisted": false, |
| 15 | 15 | "status": "active", |
| 16 | 16 | "first_date": "2024-01-02", |
| 17 | − "last_date": "2024-05-31" | |
| 17 | + "last_date": "2024-04-30" | |
| 18 | 18 | }, |
| 19 | 19 | { |
| 20 | 20 | "symbol": "SYN01", |
@@ -27,12 +27,12 @@ | ||
| 27 | 27 | "delisted": false, |
| 28 | 28 | "status": "active", |
| 29 | 29 | "first_date": "2024-01-02", |
| 30 | − "last_date": "2024-05-31" | |
| 30 | + "last_date": "2024-04-30" | |
| 31 | 31 | }, |
| 32 | 32 | { |
| 33 | 33 | "symbol": "SYN02", |
| 34 | 34 | "asset_class": "stock", |
| 35 | − "role": "pooled", | |
| 35 | + "role": "heldout_instrument", | |
| 36 | 36 | "adv_usd": 30000000.0, |
| 37 | 37 | "adv_tercile": "high", |
| 38 | 38 | "vol_tercile": "low", |
@@ -40,32 +40,17 @@ | ||
| 40 | 40 | "delisted": false, |
| 41 | 41 | "status": "active", |
| 42 | 42 | "first_date": "2024-01-02", |
| 43 | − "last_date": "2024-05-31" | |
| 44 | − }, | |
| 45 | − { | |
| 46 | − "symbol": "SYN03", | |
| 47 | − "asset_class": "etf", | |
| 48 | − "role": "heldout_instrument", | |
| 49 | − "adv_usd": 40000000.0, | |
| 50 | − "adv_tercile": "low", | |
| 51 | − "vol_tercile": "mid", | |
| 52 | − "group": "synthetic", | |
| 53 | − "delisted": false, | |
| 54 | − "status": "active", | |
| 55 | − "first_date": "2024-01-02", | |
| 56 | − "last_date": "2024-05-31" | |
| 43 | + "last_date": "2024-04-30" | |
| 57 | 44 | } |
| 58 | 45 | ], |
| 59 | 46 | "pilot_symbols": [ |
| 60 | 47 | "SYN00", |
| 61 | − "SYN01", | |
| 62 | − "SYN02" | |
| 48 | + "SYN01" | |
| 63 | 49 | ], |
| 64 | 50 | "feasibility_symbols": [ |
| 65 | 51 | "SYN00", |
| 66 | − "SYN01", | |
| 67 | − "SYN02" | |
| 52 | + "SYN01" | |
| 68 | 53 | ], |
| 69 | − "n_selected": 4, | |
| 70 | − "sha256": "73171c0475e7985c635dacb931910fe08ca977a507057a3bcee01fa345817a39" | |
| 54 | + "n_selected": 3, | |
| 55 | + "sha256": "98e37bc71e1aaf0028661ccd61d6b4509f869d83d84f128f19a7506e2c3a0980" | |
| 71 | 56 | } |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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docs/PHASE_6_REPORT.md
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| 1 | +# PHASE 6 — Joint paths (Stage B) — 2026-11-03 | |
| 2 | + | |
| 3 | +## What was run (`configs/ablations.yaml`, model `mrpt_small_copula`, M3U96b) | |
| 4 | +Stage A: MRPT-S with the Student-t head, 4 000 steps (same budget and seed as the ablation reference `mrpt_small_b4k`), | |
| 5 | +best validation NLL −6.4509. Stage B: low-rank (k = 4) + diagonal Gaussian copula head over the 60 future minutes, | |
| 6 | +trained for 600 steps on the copula log-likelihood of the PITs with the marginals frozen (64 s); best validation copula | |
| 7 | +NLL −2.5e-5 per observed dimension, i.e. **indistinguishable from independence** (the likelihood at R = I is exactly 0). | |
| 8 | +Prediction on the 986 468 development-test origins with 200 correlated draws (`joint`) and with 200 independent draws | |
| 9 | +of the same marginals (`indep`); path scores computed per origin and bootstrapped by trading day | |
| 10 | +(`results/metrics/ablations/path_scores_mrpt_small_copula_test.json`). | |
| 11 | + | |
| 12 | +## Results (H4) | |
| 13 | +| Score (per origin, 60-minute paths) | Joint (copula) | Independent | Joint − independent (95 % CI) | | |
| 14 | +|---|---|---|---| | |
| 15 | +| Energy score | 3.4903e-3 | 3.4904e-3 | −9.2e-8 [−2.3e-7, +5.0e-8] (−0.003 %) | | |
| 16 | +| Variogram score (p = 0.5) | 1.51132e-4 | 1.51136e-4 | −3.8e-9 [−1.0e-8, +2.2e-9] (−0.002 %) | | |
| 17 | +| CRPS of maximum drawdown | 1.4632e-3 | 1.4633e-3 | −1.8e-7 [−6.2e-7, +2.8e-7] (−0.01 %) | | |
| 18 | +| CRPS of realised variance | 1.1881e-5 | 1.1869e-5 | +1.2e-8 [−2.8e-9, +3.0e-8] (+0.10 %) | | |
| 19 | +Cumulative-return CRPS at H = 60: joint 0.4194, independent 0.4191 (scaled), i.e. no gain either. | |
| 20 | + | |
| 21 | +**H4 is rejected**: once the Student-t marginals are conditioned on the 390-bar history, the probability-integral | |
| 22 | +transforms of consecutive future minutes are essentially uncorrelated, the learned factor loadings stay near zero, | |
| 23 | +and coherent sampling changes no path score by more than a hundredth of a percent. Diffusion decoders were therefore | |
| 24 | +not attempted (the brief asked for them only if a dependence-aware decoder demonstrably helped). | |
| 25 | + | |
| 26 | +## Validation of the machinery (so that the null is not an implementation artifact) | |
| 27 | +- `tests/numerical/test_copula.py`: sampling reproduces the marginals; the sampled correlation matches the implied | |
| 28 | + correlation under strong loadings; the copula NLL is minimised at independence for independent data; PIT round trip. | |
| 29 | +- `tests/numerical/test_scores.py::test_energy_score_prefers_true_dependence`: the energy score does reward correct | |
| 30 | + dependence when it exists. | |
| 31 | +- The synthetic smoke run (independent t returns by construction) also learned ≈ 0 correlation, as it should. | |
| 32 | + | |
| 33 | +## Go / no-go | |
| 34 | +Stage B remains in the package as a documented null; the paper reports it in the ablation section. | |
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docs/PHASE_7_REPORT.md
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| 1 | +# PHASE 7 — Inference, calibration, subgroups, falsification, economics (2026-11-03) | |
| 2 | + | |
| 3 | +## Runs (M3U96b, `rest_chain`, 23:06 → ~02:50 ET; all exit 0) | |
| 4 | +| Run | Config / flags | Origins | Wall | | |
| 5 | +|---|---|---|---| | |
| 6 | +| Held-out 2024 | `main.yaml --heldout` (baselines refit on the 60 instruments' own training histories; neural checkpoints from the main study, zero-shot) | 250 322 | ≈ 15 min | | |
| 7 | +| Ablations 2024 | `ablations.yaml` (15 Small variants × 4 000 steps + reference + 2 seeds + copula) | 986 468 | ≈ 6 h 10 | | |
| 8 | +| Final 2025 pooled | `final.yaml --eval-split final --models-from results/metrics/main` | 1 008 425 | ≈ 1 h 25 | | |
| 9 | +| Final 2025 held-out | `final.yaml --eval-split final --heldout --models-from …` | 254 334 | ≈ 25 min | | |
| 10 | +Post-processing on the laptop: `scripts/pairwise.py` (DM-HAC, day-cluster bootstrap, Holm/BH, subgroups, stress-day | |
| 11 | +calibration) for `main/test`, `main/test_heldout`, `final/final`, `final/final_heldout`, `ablations/test`; | |
| 12 | +`scripts/economic.py` on the node (H5); `scripts/evaluate.py`, `make_figures.py`, `make_static_tables.py`. | |
| 13 | + | |
| 14 | +## Hypothesis verdicts (relative CRPS of the cumulative return; Holm-adjusted DM p-values) | |
| 15 | +| Hypothesis | Evidence | Verdict | | |
| 16 | +|---|---|---| | |
| 17 | +| H1 multi-resolution > 1m-only (equal params) | 2024 dev: −0.04 % (H5) … −0.10 % (H60), t −4.5 to −5.3; 4k-step ablation: −0.12 … −0.16 %; **2025 final: +0.01 … +0.03 %, p ≥ 0.36; 2025 held-out: p = 1** | statistically detectable in sample, economically nil, absent out of sample → **rejected in substance** | | |
| 18 | +| H2 transfer to unseen instruments | held-out vs random walk −4.1 … −4.3 % (pooled −4.05 … −4.27 %); beats GARCH-t (−0.9 … −1.6 %), EWMA, TCN, MLP; ties HAR/ridge/LightGBM from 30 min (p = 1); 2025 held-out identical | **supported** (no transfer penalty; parity with refitted HAR beyond 15 min) | | |
| 19 | +| H3 regime conditioning improves stress calibration | no-regime vs stats-regime: +0.02 … +0.03 % CRPS, p > 0.3 at 30/60; stress-day coverage identical (0.57/0.85/0.97 vs 0.57/0.85/0.97) | **rejected** (learned codebook: −0.03 … −0.15 %, small) | | |
| 20 | +| H4 coherent paths > independent marginals | copula NLL → 0 (independence); energy −0.003 %, variogram −0.002 %, MDD CRPS −0.01 %, RV CRPS +0.10 %, all CIs contain 0 | **rejected** | | |
| 21 | +| H5 economic content | median–realised correlation 0.003–0.025; net return at 1 bp cost 0.0 bp [−1.7, +1.8]; traded share < 4 % above 2.5 bp | **rejected** | | |
| 22 | +Supplementary findings: model size irrelevant (Base vs Small p ≥ 0.1 everywhere); neural best at H = 5 (−1.2 … −1.9 % vs HAR), | |
| 23 | +HAR/ridge/LightGBM best at H ≥ 15 (+0.2 … +0.7 % against MRPT-S, 2024 and 2025); time-only inputs recover ≈ 90 % of the gain | |
| 24 | +over the random walk; shuffled minutes cost +0.13 … +0.21 %; ticker identity hurts (+0.05 … +0.31 %). | |
| 25 | + | |
| 26 | +## Calibration | |
| 27 | +Neural + GARCH/EWMA: nominal at 95 %, over-dispersed centre (50 % coverage 0.55–0.59). HAR/ridge/LightGBM: nominal from | |
| 28 | +15 min, under-dispersed at 5 min (50 % coverage 0.37). 2025 stress days: HAR 0.46/0.77/0.95 vs MRPT-S 0.55/0.84/0.95. | |
| 29 | + | |
| 30 | +## Multiplicity and dependence | |
| 31 | +All intervals are day-cluster bootstraps (251–252 clusters per year); DM lags = overlap × instruments (240 … 960); | |
| 32 | +Holm and BH columns in every `pairwise_*.csv`. Overlapping origins are never counted as independent. | |
| 33 | + | |
| 34 | +## Artifacts | |
| 35 | +`results/metrics/{main,final,ablations}/pairwise_*.csv`, `subgroups_*.csv`, `stress_calibration_*.csv`, `economic_test.csv`, | |
| 36 | +`path_scores_mrpt_small_copula_test.json`, leaderboards and comparisons per split; `paper/tables/*.tex` (53), `paper/figures/*` (27), | |
| 37 | +`paper/results_macros.tex` (3 468 macros). Gates: leakage (tests), numerical (tests + copula null reproduced on synthetic data), | |
| 38 | +provenance (dataset versions 17 375 / 5 162 in every run_meta) — PASS. | |
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docs/PHASE_8_REPORT.md
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| 1 | +# PHASE 8 — Paper (2026-11-03) | |
| 2 | + | |
| 3 | +## Manuscript | |
| 4 | +`paper/main.tex` → `paper/main.pdf` (latexmk, pdflatex + bibtex, style `aer`, UQO template: `newtxtext`/`newtxmath`, | |
| 5 | +title page macros). Sections: title page + abstract, introduction, hypotheses (5 formal statements), related work, | |
| 6 | +data, model, experimental design, results (pilot, development test 2024, calibration, subgroups, economics, zero-shot | |
| 7 | +and untouched 2025), ablations and falsification (incl. Stage-B paths), limitations, reproducibility and release, | |
| 8 | +conclusion, bibliography, appendices (baseline specifications, additional tables, universe). 36 pages. | |
| 9 | + | |
| 10 | +## Provenance of every number | |
| 11 | +- `paper/results_macros.tex`: 3 468 macros generated by `scripts/evaluate.py` from the saved leaderboards, comparisons | |
| 12 | + and pairwise files (`\crps<exp><model>H<h>`, `\rel…`, `\pw<exp><model>vs<ref>H<h>`, `\tpw…`, `\ppw…`, coverage macros); | |
| 13 | + digits in macro names are spelt out (`Hsixzero` = H = 60). | |
| 14 | +- `paper/tables/*.tex` (53 files): leaderboards (scaled CRPS, WIS, QLIKE, calibration) and relative-change tables for | |
| 15 | + pilot / main / main held-out / ablations / final / final held-out, universe strata, groups and ticker lists, baseline | |
| 16 | + specifications (from `configs/baselines.yaml`), measured benchmark (from `results/metrics/benchmark_M3U96b.json`). | |
| 17 | +- `paper/figures/*.pdf` (27): scores by horizon, coverage, PIT histograms, forest plots, training curves, drawn only | |
| 18 | + from result files by `src/chronos_x/eval/figures.py` (Times/STIX, monochrome + one accent, panel labels). | |
| 19 | +- Hand-typed numbers in the prose (subgroups, ablation ranges, copula scores, economic results) are copied from | |
| 20 | + `results/metrics/*/pairwise_*.csv`, `subgroups_*.csv`, `stress_calibration_*.csv`, `path_scores_*.json`, `economic_test.csv` | |
| 21 | + and listed in `docs/PHASE_5..7_REPORT.md`. | |
| 22 | +- Bibliography: 54 entries, every DOI/arXiv id fetched and title-matched (`scripts/build_references.py`, | |
| 23 | + `results/metrics/references_verification.json`); four entries without DOI are typed by hand (LightGBM, Holm, Sklar, López de Prado). | |
| 24 | + | |
| 25 | +## Claims → evidence (central ones) | |
| 26 | +| Claim | Evidence | | |
| 27 | +|---|---| | |
| 28 | +| All models beat the random walk by 3.5–4.9 % | `main/compare_crps_vs_naive_rw_test.csv`, `final/…_final.csv` | | |
| 29 | +| H1 effect ≤ 0.1 % in sample, absent in 2025 | `main/pairwise_test.csv`, `final/pairwise_final.csv`, `ablations/pairwise_test.csv` | | |
| 30 | +| HAR-RV better from 15 min, neural better at 5 min | same files, `tables/main_crps_scaled.tex`, `final_crps_scaled.tex` | | |
| 31 | +| Transfer without penalty | `main/pairwise_test_heldout.csv`, `final/pairwise_final_heldout.csv` | | |
| 32 | +| H3, H4, H5 nulls | `ablations/pairwise_test.csv`, `stress_calibration_test.csv`, `path_scores_mrpt_small_copula_test.json`, `main/economic_test.csv` | | |
| 33 | +| Time-only ≈ 90 % of the skill | `ablations/pairwise_test.csv` (mrpt_small_time_only vs mrpt_small_b4k; b4k vs naive_rw) | | |
| 34 | + | |
| 35 | +## Checks | |
| 36 | +- `latexmk` exit 0; 0 undefined references/citations after the final pass; 1 remaining overfull box (appendix table, cosmetic). | |
| 37 | +- Visual check of the results pages (figures and tables render; legends below panels). | |
| 38 | +- No proprietary bars, grids or per-origin returns appear in the manuscript, tables or figures (scores and tickers only). | |
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@@ -9,14 +9,15 @@ | ||
| 9 | 9 | \IfFileExists{tables/main_qlike.tex}{\input{tables/main_qlike}}{} |
| 10 | 10 | \IfFileExists{tables/main_compare_wis.tex}{\input{tables/main_compare_wis}}{} |
| 11 | 11 | \IfFileExists{tables/main_compare_qlike.tex}{\input{tables/main_compare_qlike}}{} |
| 12 | −\IfFileExists{tables/main_crps_scaled_heldout.tex}{\input{tables/main_crps_scaled_heldout}}{} | |
| 13 | 12 | \IfFileExists{tables/main_calibration_heldout.tex}{\input{tables/main_calibration_heldout}}{} |
| 14 | −\IfFileExists{tables/final_crps_scaled.tex}{\input{tables/final_crps_scaled}}{} | |
| 15 | −\IfFileExists{tables/final_calibration.tex}{\input{tables/final_calibration}}{} | |
| 13 | +\IfFileExists{tables/final_compare_crps.tex}{\input{tables/final_compare_crps}}{} | |
| 14 | +\IfFileExists{tables/final_crps_scaled_heldout.tex}{\input{tables/final_crps_scaled_heldout}}{} | |
| 15 | +\IfFileExists{tables/ablations_calibration.tex}{\input{tables/ablations_calibration}}{} | |
| 16 | 16 | \IfFileExists{tables/ablations_wis.tex}{\input{tables/ablations_wis}}{} |
| 17 | 17 | \IfFileExists{tables/pilot_crps_scaled.tex}{\input{tables/pilot_crps_scaled}}{} |
| 18 | 18 | \IfFileExists{tables/pilot_calibration.tex}{\input{tables/pilot_calibration}}{} |
| 19 | 19 | |
| 20 | +\IfFileExists{tables/universe_groups.tex}{\input{tables/universe_groups}}{} | |
| 20 | 21 | \section{Universe} |
| 21 | 22 | \label{app:universe} |
| 22 | 23 | \IfFileExists{tables/universe_strata.tex}{\input{tables/universe_strata}}{} |
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| 958 | 958 | \newcommand{\pwmainharrvvsgarchtHsixzero}{-1.54} |
| 959 | 959 | \newcommand{\tpwmainharrvvsgarchtHsixzero}{-23.7} |
| 960 | 960 | \newcommand{\ppwmainharrvvsgarchtHsixzero}{0} |
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| 1243 | +\newcommand{\relmainheldouttcnqlikeHonefive}{-16971749949659.03} | |
| 1244 | +\newcommand{\dmrelmainheldouttcnqlikeHonefive}{-41.8} | |
| 1245 | +\newcommand{\relmainheldouttcnqlikeHthreezero}{-15714216179967.48} | |
| 1246 | +\newcommand{\dmrelmainheldouttcnqlikeHthreezero}{-33.8} | |
| 1247 | +\newcommand{\relmainheldouttcnqlikeHsixzero}{-14554204854126.64} | |
| 1248 | +\newcommand{\dmrelmainheldouttcnqlikeHsixzero}{-26.7} | |
| 1249 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutelasticnetHfive}{0.4621} | |
| 1250 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutelasticnetHfive}{41} | |
| 1251 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutelasticnetHfive}{90.5} | |
| 1252 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutelasticnetHonefive}{0.4494} | |
| 1253 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutelasticnetHonefive}{46} | |
| 1254 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutelasticnetHonefive}{94.3} | |
| 1255 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutelasticnetHthreezero}{0.4376} | |
| 1256 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutelasticnetHthreezero}{48} | |
| 1257 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutelasticnetHthreezero}{95.1} | |
| 1258 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutelasticnetHsixzero}{0.4242} | |
| 1259 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutelasticnetHsixzero}{50} | |
| 1260 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutelasticnetHsixzero}{95.6} | |
| 1261 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutewmaHfive}{0.4593} | |
| 1262 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutewmaHfive}{53} | |
| 1263 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutewmaHfive}{96.8} | |
| 1264 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutewmaHonefive}{0.4508} | |
| 1265 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutewmaHonefive}{53} | |
| 1266 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutewmaHonefive}{97.0} | |
| 1267 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutewmaHthreezero}{0.4404} | |
| 1268 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutewmaHthreezero}{54} | |
| 1269 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutewmaHthreezero}{97.2} | |
| 1270 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutewmaHsixzero}{0.4287} | |
| 1271 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutewmaHsixzero}{55} | |
| 1272 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutewmaHsixzero}{97.3} | |
| 1273 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutgarchtHfive}{0.4607} | |
| 1274 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutgarchtHfive}{53} | |
| 1275 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutgarchtHfive}{96.5} | |
| 1276 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutgarchtHonefive}{0.4517} | |
| 1277 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutgarchtHonefive}{54} | |
| 1278 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutgarchtHonefive}{96.9} | |
| 1279 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutgarchtHthreezero}{0.4415} | |
| 1280 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutgarchtHthreezero}{55} | |
| 1281 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutgarchtHthreezero}{97.3} | |
| 1282 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutgarchtHsixzero}{0.4306} | |
| 1283 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutgarchtHsixzero}{58} | |
| 1284 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutgarchtHsixzero}{97.7} | |
| 1285 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutharrvHfive}{0.4616} | |
| 1286 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutharrvHfive}{57} | |
| 1287 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutharrvHfive}{97.8} | |
| 1288 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutharrvHonefive}{0.4490} | |
| 1289 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutharrvHonefive}{49} | |
| 1290 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutharrvHonefive}{96.0} | |
| 1291 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutharrvHthreezero}{0.4378} | |
| 1292 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutharrvHthreezero}{50} | |
| 1293 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutharrvHthreezero}{96.1} | |
| 1294 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutharrvHsixzero}{0.4248} | |
| 1295 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutharrvHsixzero}{52} | |
| 1296 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutharrvHsixzero}{96.2} | |
| 1297 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutlightgbmHfive}{0.4647} | |
| 1298 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutlightgbmHfive}{38} | |
| 1299 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutlightgbmHfive}{90.6} | |
| 1300 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutlightgbmHonefive}{0.4496} | |
| 1301 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutlightgbmHonefive}{46} | |
| 1302 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutlightgbmHonefive}{94.3} | |
| 1303 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutlightgbmHthreezero}{0.4382} | |
| 1304 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutlightgbmHthreezero}{48} | |
| 1305 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutlightgbmHthreezero}{95.1} | |
| 1306 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutlightgbmHsixzero}{0.4248} | |
| 1307 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutlightgbmHsixzero}{50} | |
| 1308 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutlightgbmHsixzero}{95.5} | |
| 1309 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmlpHfive}{0.4582} | |
| 1310 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmlpHfive}{54} | |
| 1311 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmlpHfive}{95.6} | |
| 1312 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmlpHonefive}{0.4499} | |
| 1313 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmlpHonefive}{55} | |
| 1314 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmlpHonefive}{95.8} | |
| 1315 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmlpHthreezero}{0.4393} | |
| 1316 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmlpHthreezero}{56} | |
| 1317 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmlpHthreezero}{96.0} | |
| 1318 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmlpHsixzero}{0.4264} | |
| 1319 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmlpHsixzero}{57} | |
| 1320 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmlpHsixzero}{96.1} | |
| 1321 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmrptbaseHfive}{0.4573} | |
| 1322 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmrptbaseHfive}{54} | |
| 1323 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmrptbaseHfive}{95.4} | |
| 1324 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmrptbaseHonefive}{0.4490} | |
| 1325 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmrptbaseHonefive}{55} | |
| 1326 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmrptbaseHonefive}{95.6} | |
| 1327 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmrptbaseHthreezero}{0.4383} | |
| 1328 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmrptbaseHthreezero}{56} | |
| 1329 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmrptbaseHthreezero}{95.8} | |
| 1330 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmrptbaseHsixzero}{0.4253} | |
| 1331 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmrptbaseHsixzero}{57} | |
| 1332 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmrptbaseHsixzero}{96.0} | |
| 1333 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmrptsmallonemonlyHfive}{0.4573} | |
| 1334 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmrptsmallonemonlyHfive}{54} | |
| 1335 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmrptsmallonemonlyHfive}{95.4} | |
| 1336 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmrptsmallonemonlyHonefive}{0.4490} | |
| 1337 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmrptsmallonemonlyHonefive}{55} | |
| 1338 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmrptsmallonemonlyHonefive}{95.7} | |
| 1339 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmrptsmallonemonlyHthreezero}{0.4384} | |
| 1340 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmrptsmallonemonlyHthreezero}{56} | |
| 1341 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmrptsmallonemonlyHthreezero}{95.8} | |
| 1342 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmrptsmallonemonlyHsixzero}{0.4255} | |
| 1343 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmrptsmallonemonlyHsixzero}{56} | |
| 1344 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmrptsmallonemonlyHsixzero}{95.9} | |
| 1345 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmrptsmallHfive}{0.4571} | |
| 1346 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmrptsmallHfive}{54} | |
| 1347 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmrptsmallHfive}{95.5} | |
| 1348 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmrptsmallHonefive}{0.4488} | |
| 1349 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmrptsmallHonefive}{55} | |
| 1350 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmrptsmallHonefive}{95.7} | |
| 1351 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmrptsmallHthreezero}{0.4381} | |
| 1352 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmrptsmallHthreezero}{56} | |
| 1353 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmrptsmallHthreezero}{95.8} | |
| 1354 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutmrptsmallHsixzero}{0.4250} | |
| 1355 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutmrptsmallHsixzero}{56} | |
| 1356 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutmrptsmallHsixzero}{96.0} | |
| 1357 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutnaiverwHfive}{0.4744} | |
| 1358 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutnaiverwHfive}{64} | |
| 1359 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutnaiverwHfive}{96.5} | |
| 1360 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutnaiverwHonefive}{0.4653} | |
| 1361 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutnaiverwHonefive}{65} | |
| 1362 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutnaiverwHonefive}{96.9} | |
| 1363 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutnaiverwHthreezero}{0.4541} | |
| 1364 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutnaiverwHthreezero}{65} | |
| 1365 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutnaiverwHthreezero}{97.3} | |
| 1366 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutnaiverwHsixzero}{0.4415} | |
| 1367 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutnaiverwHsixzero}{67} | |
| 1368 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutnaiverwHsixzero}{97.7} | |
| 1369 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutridgeHfive}{0.4621} | |
| 1370 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutridgeHfive}{41} | |
| 1371 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutridgeHfive}{90.5} | |
| 1372 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutridgeHonefive}{0.4494} | |
| 1373 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutridgeHonefive}{46} | |
| 1374 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutridgeHonefive}{94.3} | |
| 1375 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutridgeHthreezero}{0.4376} | |
| 1376 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutridgeHthreezero}{48} | |
| 1377 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutridgeHthreezero}{95.1} | |
| 1378 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutridgeHsixzero}{0.4242} | |
| 1379 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutridgeHsixzero}{50} | |
| 1380 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutridgeHsixzero}{95.6} | |
| 1381 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutseasonalvolHfive}{0.4623} | |
| 1382 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutseasonalvolHfive}{55} | |
| 1383 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutseasonalvolHfive}{94.0} | |
| 1384 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutseasonalvolHonefive}{0.4531} | |
| 1385 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutseasonalvolHonefive}{54} | |
| 1386 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutseasonalvolHonefive}{94.1} | |
| 1387 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutseasonalvolHthreezero}{0.4419} | |
| 1388 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutseasonalvolHthreezero}{55} | |
| 1389 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutseasonalvolHthreezero}{94.4} | |
| 1390 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldoutseasonalvolHsixzero}{0.4289} | |
| 1391 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldoutseasonalvolHsixzero}{55} | |
| 1392 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldoutseasonalvolHsixzero}{94.5} | |
| 1393 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldouttcnHfive}{0.4578} | |
| 1394 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldouttcnHfive}{55} | |
| 1395 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldouttcnHfive}{95.8} | |
| 1396 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldouttcnHonefive}{0.4497} | |
| 1397 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldouttcnHonefive}{56} | |
| 1398 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldouttcnHonefive}{96.1} | |
| 1399 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldouttcnHthreezero}{0.4392} | |
| 1400 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldouttcnHthreezero}{57} | |
| 1401 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldouttcnHthreezero}{96.2} | |
| 1402 | +\newcommand{\crpsmainheldouttcnHsixzero}{0.4265} | |
| 1403 | +\newcommand{\covfiftymainheldouttcnHsixzero}{58} | |
| 1404 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivemainheldouttcnHsixzero}{96.3} | |
| 1405 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHfive}{-0.05} | |
| 1406 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHfive}{-3.8} | |
| 1407 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHfive}{0.00143} | |
| 1408 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHonefive}{-0.05} | |
| 1409 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHonefive}{-3.9} | |
| 1410 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHonefive}{0.00109} | |
| 1411 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHthreezero}{-0.06} | |
| 1412 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHthreezero}{-3.9} | |
| 1413 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHthreezero}{0.00111} | |
| 1414 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHsixzero}{-0.10} | |
| 1415 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHsixzero}{-4.0} | |
| 1416 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHsixzero}{0.000728} | |
| 1417 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptbasevsmrptsmallHfive}{+0.02} | |
| 1418 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptbasevsmrptsmallHfive}{1.4} | |
| 1419 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptbasevsmrptsmallHfive}{0.684} | |
| 1420 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptbasevsmrptsmallHonefive}{+0.02} | |
| 1421 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptbasevsmrptsmallHonefive}{1.7} | |
| 1422 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptbasevsmrptsmallHonefive}{0.484} | |
| 1423 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptbasevsmrptsmallHthreezero}{+0.03} | |
| 1424 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptbasevsmrptsmallHthreezero}{1.7} | |
| 1425 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptbasevsmrptsmallHthreezero}{0.484} | |
| 1426 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptbasevsmrptsmallHsixzero}{+0.05} | |
| 1427 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptbasevsmrptsmallHsixzero}{2.1} | |
| 1428 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptbasevsmrptsmallHsixzero}{0.272} | |
| 1429 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsharrvHfive}{-1.16} | |
| 1430 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsharrvHfive}{-26.4} | |
| 1431 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsharrvHfive}{0} | |
| 1432 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsharrvHonefive}{-0.14} | |
| 1433 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsharrvHonefive}{-3.2} | |
| 1434 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsharrvHonefive}{0.0104} | |
| 1435 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsharrvHthreezero}{-0.04} | |
| 1436 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsharrvHthreezero}{-0.9} | |
| 1437 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsharrvHthreezero}{1} | |
| 1438 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsharrvHsixzero}{-0.05} | |
| 1439 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsharrvHsixzero}{-0.8} | |
| 1440 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsharrvHsixzero}{1} | |
| 1441 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsgarchtHfive}{-0.87} | |
| 1442 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsgarchtHfive}{-18.0} | |
| 1443 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsgarchtHfive}{0} | |
| 1444 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsgarchtHonefive}{-0.89} | |
| 1445 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsgarchtHonefive}{-19.3} | |
| 1446 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsgarchtHonefive}{0} | |
| 1447 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsgarchtHthreezero}{-1.05} | |
| 1448 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsgarchtHthreezero}{-20.8} | |
| 1449 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsgarchtHthreezero}{0} | |
| 1450 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsgarchtHsixzero}{-1.56} | |
| 1451 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsgarchtHsixzero}{-24.6} | |
| 1452 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsgarchtHsixzero}{0} | |
| 1453 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsewmaHfive}{-0.60} | |
| 1454 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsewmaHfive}{-15.3} | |
| 1455 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsewmaHfive}{0} | |
| 1456 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsewmaHonefive}{-0.63} | |
| 1457 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsewmaHonefive}{-16.4} | |
| 1458 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsewmaHonefive}{0} | |
| 1459 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsewmaHthreezero}{-0.77} | |
| 1460 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsewmaHthreezero}{-16.4} | |
| 1461 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsewmaHthreezero}{0} | |
| 1462 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsewmaHsixzero}{-1.15} | |
| 1463 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsewmaHsixzero}{-16.8} | |
| 1464 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsewmaHsixzero}{0} | |
| 1465 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHfive}{-1.66} | |
| 1466 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHfive}{-22.2} | |
| 1467 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHfive}{0} | |
| 1468 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHonefive}{-0.33} | |
| 1469 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHonefive}{-5.8} | |
| 1470 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHonefive}{9.03e-08} | |
| 1471 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHthreezero}{-0.16} | |
| 1472 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHthreezero}{-2.5} | |
| 1473 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHthreezero}{0.0879} | |
| 1474 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHsixzero}{-0.04} | |
| 1475 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHsixzero}{-0.6} | |
| 1476 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHsixzero}{1} | |
| 1477 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHfive}{-0.11} | |
| 1478 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHfive}{-6.6} | |
| 1479 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHfive}{8.02e-10} | |
| 1480 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHonefive}{-0.17} | |
| 1481 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHonefive}{-9.8} | |
| 1482 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHonefive}{0} | |
| 1483 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHthreezero}{-0.24} | |
| 1484 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHthreezero}{-10.9} | |
| 1485 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHthreezero}{0} | |
| 1486 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHsixzero}{-0.38} | |
| 1487 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHsixzero}{-11.8} | |
| 1488 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHsixzero}{0} | |
| 1489 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHfive}{-0.21} | |
| 1490 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHfive}{-6.1} | |
| 1491 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHfive}{1.64e-08} | |
| 1492 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHonefive}{-0.23} | |
| 1493 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHonefive}{-6.5} | |
| 1494 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHonefive}{1.81e-09} | |
| 1495 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHthreezero}{-0.27} | |
| 1496 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHthreezero}{-6.3} | |
| 1497 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHthreezero}{6.11e-09} | |
| 1498 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHsixzero}{-0.38} | |
| 1499 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHsixzero}{-6.8} | |
| 1500 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHsixzero}{2.32e-10} | |
| 1501 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHfive}{-4.12} | |
| 1502 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHfive}{-51.7} | |
| 1503 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHfive}{0} | |
| 1504 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHonefive}{-4.07} | |
| 1505 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHonefive}{-51.5} | |
| 1506 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHonefive}{0} | |
| 1507 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHthreezero}{-4.08} | |
| 1508 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHthreezero}{-40.7} | |
| 1509 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHthreezero}{0} | |
| 1510 | +\newcommand{\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHsixzero}{-4.34} | |
| 1511 | +\newcommand{\tpwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHsixzero}{-32.2} | |
| 1512 | +\newcommand{\ppwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHsixzero}{0} | |
| 1513 | +\newcommand{\relablationsewmacrpsHfive}{-3.65} | |
| 1514 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsewmacrpsHfive}{-57.2} | |
| 1515 | +\newcommand{\relablationsewmacrpsHonefive}{-3.69} | |
| 1516 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsewmacrpsHonefive}{-53.4} | |
| 1517 | +\newcommand{\relablationsewmacrpsHthreezero}{-3.60} | |
| 1518 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsewmacrpsHthreezero}{-37.3} | |
| 1519 | +\newcommand{\relablationsewmacrpsHsixzero}{-3.47} | |
| 1520 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsewmacrpsHsixzero}{-25.5} | |
| 1521 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemfivemcrpsHfive}{-4.00} | |
| 1522 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemfivemcrpsHfive}{-65.8} | |
| 1523 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemfivemcrpsHonefive}{-4.01} | |
| 1524 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemfivemcrpsHonefive}{-63.8} | |
| 1525 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemfivemcrpsHthreezero}{-4.05} | |
| 1526 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemfivemcrpsHthreezero}{-48.4} | |
| 1527 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemfivemcrpsHsixzero}{-4.24} | |
| 1528 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemfivemcrpsHsixzero}{-38.2} | |
| 1529 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkcrpsHfive}{-3.98} | |
| 1530 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkcrpsHfive}{-66.3} | |
| 1531 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkcrpsHonefive}{-3.98} | |
| 1532 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkcrpsHonefive}{-63.9} | |
| 1533 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkcrpsHthreezero}{-4.01} | |
| 1534 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkcrpsHthreezero}{-48.9} | |
| 1535 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkcrpsHsixzero}{-4.19} | |
| 1536 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkcrpsHsixzero}{-38.4} | |
| 1537 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallbfourkcrpsHfive}{-4.10} | |
| 1538 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallbfourkcrpsHfive}{-65.9} | |
| 1539 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallbfourkcrpsHonefive}{-4.12} | |
| 1540 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallbfourkcrpsHonefive}{-63.9} | |
| 1541 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallbfourkcrpsHthreezero}{-4.15} | |
| 1542 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallbfourkcrpsHthreezero}{-48.4} | |
| 1543 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallbfourkcrpsHsixzero}{-4.34} | |
| 1544 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallbfourkcrpsHsixzero}{-37.7} | |
| 1545 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepcrpsHfive}{-4.02} | |
| 1546 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepcrpsHfive}{-66.6} | |
| 1547 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepcrpsHonefive}{-4.04} | |
| 1548 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepcrpsHonefive}{-64.7} | |
| 1549 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepcrpsHthreezero}{-4.05} | |
| 1550 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepcrpsHthreezero}{-48.9} | |
| 1551 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepcrpsHsixzero}{-4.24} | |
| 1552 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepcrpsHsixzero}{-38.1} | |
| 1553 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulacrpsHfive}{-4.04} | |
| 1554 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulacrpsHfive}{-66.9} | |
| 1555 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulacrpsHonefive}{-4.03} | |
| 1556 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulacrpsHonefive}{-64.5} | |
| 1557 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulacrpsHthreezero}{-4.02} | |
| 1558 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulacrpsHthreezero}{-48.2} | |
| 1559 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulacrpsHsixzero}{-4.16} | |
| 1560 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulacrpsHsixzero}{-37.3} | |
| 1561 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcrosscrpsHfive}{-4.05} | |
| 1562 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcrosscrpsHfive}{-66.0} | |
| 1563 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcrosscrpsHonefive}{-4.08} | |
| 1564 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcrosscrpsHonefive}{-64.3} | |
| 1565 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcrosscrpsHthreezero}{-4.11} | |
| 1566 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcrosscrpsHthreezero}{-48.7} | |
| 1567 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcrosscrpsHsixzero}{-4.29} | |
| 1568 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcrosscrpsHsixzero}{-38.1} | |
| 1569 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallgaussiancrpsHfive}{+nan} | |
| 1570 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallgaussiancrpsHfive}{nan} | |
| 1571 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallgaussiancrpsHonefive}{+nan} | |
| 1572 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallgaussiancrpsHonefive}{nan} | |
| 1573 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallgaussiancrpsHthreezero}{+nan} | |
| 1574 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallgaussiancrpsHthreezero}{nan} | |
| 1575 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallgaussiancrpsHsixzero}{+nan} | |
| 1576 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallgaussiancrpsHsixzero}{nan} | |
| 1577 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimecrpsHfive}{-4.12} | |
| 1578 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimecrpsHfive}{-68.5} | |
| 1579 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimecrpsHonefive}{-4.20} | |
| 1580 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimecrpsHonefive}{-67.1} | |
| 1581 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimecrpsHthreezero}{-4.26} | |
| 1582 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimecrpsHthreezero}{-51.4} | |
| 1583 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimecrpsHsixzero}{-4.49} | |
| 1584 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimecrpsHsixzero}{-40.0} | |
| 1585 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallnoregimecrpsHfive}{-4.07} | |
| 1586 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallnoregimecrpsHfive}{-65.8} | |
| 1587 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallnoregimecrpsHonefive}{-4.10} | |
| 1588 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallnoregimecrpsHonefive}{-63.9} | |
| 1589 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallnoregimecrpsHthreezero}{-4.13} | |
| 1590 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallnoregimecrpsHthreezero}{-48.9} | |
| 1591 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallnoregimecrpsHsixzero}{-4.31} | |
| 1592 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallnoregimecrpsHsixzero}{-38.9} | |
| 1593 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallohlcvcrpsHfive}{-4.02} | |
| 1594 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallohlcvcrpsHfive}{-66.2} | |
| 1595 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallohlcvcrpsHonefive}{-4.03} | |
| 1596 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallohlcvcrpsHonefive}{-64.0} | |
| 1597 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallohlcvcrpsHthreezero}{-4.04} | |
| 1598 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallohlcvcrpsHthreezero}{-48.4} | |
| 1599 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallohlcvcrpsHsixzero}{-4.21} | |
| 1600 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallohlcvcrpsHsixzero}{-37.9} | |
| 1601 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlycrpsHfive}{-3.92} | |
| 1602 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlycrpsHfive}{-68.7} | |
| 1603 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlycrpsHonefive}{-3.91} | |
| 1604 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlycrpsHonefive}{-66.5} | |
| 1605 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlycrpsHthreezero}{-3.93} | |
| 1606 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlycrpsHthreezero}{-50.6} | |
| 1607 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlycrpsHsixzero}{-4.08} | |
| 1608 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlycrpsHsixzero}{-39.3} | |
| 1609 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedtwocrpsHfive}{-4.10} | |
| 1610 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedtwocrpsHfive}{-69.0} | |
| 1611 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedtwocrpsHonefive}{-4.15} | |
| 1612 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedtwocrpsHonefive}{-67.5} | |
| 1613 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedtwocrpsHthreezero}{-4.17} | |
| 1614 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedtwocrpsHthreezero}{-50.5} | |
| 1615 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedtwocrpsHsixzero}{-4.30} | |
| 1616 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedtwocrpsHsixzero}{-37.5} | |
| 1617 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedthreecrpsHfive}{-4.12} | |
| 1618 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedthreecrpsHfive}{-69.8} | |
| 1619 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedthreecrpsHonefive}{-4.12} | |
| 1620 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedthreecrpsHonefive}{-66.5} | |
| 1621 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedthreecrpsHthreezero}{-4.12} | |
| 1622 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedthreecrpsHthreezero}{-49.5} | |
| 1623 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedthreecrpsHsixzero}{-4.19} | |
| 1624 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedthreecrpsHsixzero}{-35.8} | |
| 1625 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallshuffledcrpsHfive}{-3.97} | |
| 1626 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallshuffledcrpsHfive}{-65.4} | |
| 1627 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallshuffledcrpsHonefive}{-3.99} | |
| 1628 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallshuffledcrpsHonefive}{-63.3} | |
| 1629 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallshuffledcrpsHthreezero}{-4.00} | |
| 1630 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallshuffledcrpsHthreezero}{-47.8} | |
| 1631 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallshuffledcrpsHsixzero}{-4.14} | |
| 1632 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallshuffledcrpsHsixzero}{-37.0} | |
| 1633 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltickercrpsHfive}{-4.05} | |
| 1634 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltickercrpsHfive}{-69.4} | |
| 1635 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltickercrpsHonefive}{-3.99} | |
| 1636 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltickercrpsHonefive}{-66.7} | |
| 1637 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltickercrpsHthreezero}{-3.96} | |
| 1638 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltickercrpsHthreezero}{-50.4} | |
| 1639 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltickercrpsHsixzero}{-4.04} | |
| 1640 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltickercrpsHsixzero}{-39.0} | |
| 1641 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltimeonlycrpsHfive}{-3.90} | |
| 1642 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltimeonlycrpsHfive}{-68.7} | |
| 1643 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltimeonlycrpsHonefive}{-3.90} | |
| 1644 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltimeonlycrpsHonefive}{-66.4} | |
| 1645 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltimeonlycrpsHthreezero}{-3.91} | |
| 1646 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltimeonlycrpsHthreezero}{-50.5} | |
| 1647 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltimeonlycrpsHsixzero}{-4.07} | |
| 1648 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltimeonlycrpsHsixzero}{-39.2} | |
| 1649 | +\newcommand{\relablationsseasonalvolcrpsHfive}{-2.89} | |
| 1650 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsseasonalvolcrpsHfive}{-48.8} | |
| 1651 | +\newcommand{\relablationsseasonalvolcrpsHonefive}{-3.09} | |
| 1652 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsseasonalvolcrpsHonefive}{-49.9} | |
| 1653 | +\newcommand{\relablationsseasonalvolcrpsHthreezero}{-3.22} | |
| 1654 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsseasonalvolcrpsHthreezero}{-39.3} | |
| 1655 | +\newcommand{\relablationsseasonalvolcrpsHsixzero}{-3.44} | |
| 1656 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsseasonalvolcrpsHsixzero}{-30.7} | |
| 1657 | +\newcommand{\relablationsewmawisHfive}{-3.75} | |
| 1658 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsewmawisHfive}{-54.5} | |
| 1659 | +\newcommand{\relablationsewmawisHonefive}{-3.75} | |
| 1660 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsewmawisHonefive}{-50.4} | |
| 1661 | +\newcommand{\relablationsewmawisHthreezero}{-3.60} | |
| 1662 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsewmawisHthreezero}{-34.8} | |
| 1663 | +\newcommand{\relablationsewmawisHsixzero}{-3.40} | |
| 1664 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsewmawisHsixzero}{-23.3} | |
| 1665 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemfivemwisHfive}{-4.23} | |
| 1666 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemfivemwisHfive}{-64.8} | |
| 1667 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemfivemwisHonefive}{-4.24} | |
| 1668 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemfivemwisHonefive}{-63.1} | |
| 1669 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemfivemwisHthreezero}{-4.26} | |
| 1670 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemfivemwisHthreezero}{-47.9} | |
| 1671 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemfivemwisHsixzero}{-4.45} | |
| 1672 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemfivemwisHsixzero}{-37.3} | |
| 1673 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkwisHfive}{-4.21} | |
| 1674 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkwisHfive}{-65.2} | |
| 1675 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkwisHonefive}{-4.21} | |
| 1676 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkwisHonefive}{-63.2} | |
| 1677 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkwisHthreezero}{-4.23} | |
| 1678 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkwisHthreezero}{-48.3} | |
| 1679 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkwisHsixzero}{-4.40} | |
| 1680 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkwisHsixzero}{-37.6} | |
| 1681 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallbfourkwisHfive}{-4.33} | |
| 1682 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallbfourkwisHfive}{-64.7} | |
| 1683 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallbfourkwisHonefive}{-4.35} | |
| 1684 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallbfourkwisHonefive}{-62.9} | |
| 1685 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallbfourkwisHthreezero}{-4.37} | |
| 1686 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallbfourkwisHthreezero}{-47.6} | |
| 1687 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallbfourkwisHsixzero}{-4.56} | |
| 1688 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallbfourkwisHsixzero}{-36.7} | |
| 1689 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepwisHfive}{-4.27} | |
| 1690 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepwisHfive}{-65.6} | |
| 1691 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepwisHonefive}{-4.28} | |
| 1692 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepwisHonefive}{-64.0} | |
| 1693 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepwisHthreezero}{-4.27} | |
| 1694 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepwisHthreezero}{-48.3} | |
| 1695 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepwisHsixzero}{-4.45} | |
| 1696 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepwisHsixzero}{-37.3} | |
| 1697 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulawisHfive}{-4.28} | |
| 1698 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulawisHfive}{-65.8} | |
| 1699 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulawisHonefive}{-4.27} | |
| 1700 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulawisHonefive}{-63.8} | |
| 1701 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulawisHthreezero}{-4.24} | |
| 1702 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulawisHthreezero}{-47.8} | |
| 1703 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulawisHsixzero}{-4.37} | |
| 1704 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulawisHsixzero}{-36.5} | |
| 1705 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcrosswisHfive}{-4.28} | |
| 1706 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcrosswisHfive}{-65.0} | |
| 1707 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcrosswisHonefive}{-4.31} | |
| 1708 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcrosswisHonefive}{-63.5} | |
| 1709 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcrosswisHthreezero}{-4.32} | |
| 1710 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcrosswisHthreezero}{-48.1} | |
| 1711 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcrosswisHsixzero}{-4.50} | |
| 1712 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcrosswisHsixzero}{-37.1} | |
| 1713 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallgaussianwisHfive}{+nan} | |
| 1714 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallgaussianwisHfive}{nan} | |
| 1715 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallgaussianwisHonefive}{+nan} | |
| 1716 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallgaussianwisHonefive}{nan} | |
| 1717 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallgaussianwisHthreezero}{+nan} | |
| 1718 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallgaussianwisHthreezero}{nan} | |
| 1719 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallgaussianwisHsixzero}{+nan} | |
| 1720 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallgaussianwisHsixzero}{nan} | |
| 1721 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimewisHfive}{-4.34} | |
| 1722 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimewisHfive}{-67.6} | |
| 1723 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimewisHonefive}{-4.42} | |
| 1724 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimewisHonefive}{-66.3} | |
| 1725 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimewisHthreezero}{-4.47} | |
| 1726 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimewisHthreezero}{-50.6} | |
| 1727 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimewisHsixzero}{-4.69} | |
| 1728 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimewisHsixzero}{-38.8} | |
| 1729 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallnoregimewisHfive}{-4.31} | |
| 1730 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallnoregimewisHfive}{-64.5} | |
| 1731 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallnoregimewisHonefive}{-4.33} | |
| 1732 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallnoregimewisHonefive}{-62.9} | |
| 1733 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallnoregimewisHthreezero}{-4.35} | |
| 1734 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallnoregimewisHthreezero}{-48.2} | |
| 1735 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallnoregimewisHsixzero}{-4.52} | |
| 1736 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallnoregimewisHsixzero}{-37.9} | |
| 1737 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallohlcvwisHfive}{-4.26} | |
| 1738 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallohlcvwisHfive}{-65.2} | |
| 1739 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallohlcvwisHonefive}{-4.26} | |
| 1740 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallohlcvwisHonefive}{-63.3} | |
| 1741 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallohlcvwisHthreezero}{-4.26} | |
| 1742 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallohlcvwisHthreezero}{-47.9} | |
| 1743 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallohlcvwisHsixzero}{-4.42} | |
| 1744 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallohlcvwisHsixzero}{-37.0} | |
| 1745 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlywisHfive}{-4.14} | |
| 1746 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlywisHfive}{-67.9} | |
| 1747 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlywisHonefive}{-4.14} | |
| 1748 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlywisHonefive}{-66.1} | |
| 1749 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlywisHthreezero}{-4.14} | |
| 1750 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlywisHthreezero}{-50.3} | |
| 1751 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlywisHsixzero}{-4.28} | |
| 1752 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlywisHsixzero}{-38.8} | |
| 1753 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedtwowisHfive}{-4.32} | |
| 1754 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedtwowisHfive}{-68.4} | |
| 1755 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedtwowisHonefive}{-4.38} | |
| 1756 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedtwowisHonefive}{-67.0} | |
| 1757 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedtwowisHthreezero}{-4.39} | |
| 1758 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedtwowisHthreezero}{-50.1} | |
| 1759 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedtwowisHsixzero}{-4.51} | |
| 1760 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedtwowisHsixzero}{-36.9} | |
| 1761 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedthreewisHfive}{-4.35} | |
| 1762 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedthreewisHfive}{-68.9} | |
| 1763 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedthreewisHonefive}{-4.35} | |
| 1764 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedthreewisHonefive}{-65.8} | |
| 1765 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedthreewisHthreezero}{-4.34} | |
| 1766 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedthreewisHthreezero}{-49.1} | |
| 1767 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedthreewisHsixzero}{-4.40} | |
| 1768 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedthreewisHsixzero}{-35.3} | |
| 1769 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallshuffledwisHfive}{-4.20} | |
| 1770 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallshuffledwisHfive}{-64.3} | |
| 1771 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallshuffledwisHonefive}{-4.22} | |
| 1772 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallshuffledwisHonefive}{-62.6} | |
| 1773 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallshuffledwisHthreezero}{-4.21} | |
| 1774 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallshuffledwisHthreezero}{-47.2} | |
| 1775 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallshuffledwisHsixzero}{-4.34} | |
| 1776 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallshuffledwisHsixzero}{-36.1} | |
| 1777 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltickerwisHfive}{-4.29} | |
| 1778 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltickerwisHfive}{-68.3} | |
| 1779 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltickerwisHonefive}{-4.22} | |
| 1780 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltickerwisHonefive}{-65.9} | |
| 1781 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltickerwisHthreezero}{-4.17} | |
| 1782 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltickerwisHthreezero}{-50.0} | |
| 1783 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltickerwisHsixzero}{-4.25} | |
| 1784 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltickerwisHsixzero}{-38.4} | |
| 1785 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltimeonlywisHfive}{-4.13} | |
| 1786 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltimeonlywisHfive}{-68.0} | |
| 1787 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltimeonlywisHonefive}{-4.12} | |
| 1788 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltimeonlywisHonefive}{-66.0} | |
| 1789 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltimeonlywisHthreezero}{-4.12} | |
| 1790 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltimeonlywisHthreezero}{-50.2} | |
| 1791 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltimeonlywisHsixzero}{-4.26} | |
| 1792 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltimeonlywisHsixzero}{-38.6} | |
| 1793 | +\newcommand{\relablationsseasonalvolwisHfive}{-3.00} | |
| 1794 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsseasonalvolwisHfive}{-46.4} | |
| 1795 | +\newcommand{\relablationsseasonalvolwisHonefive}{-3.20} | |
| 1796 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsseasonalvolwisHonefive}{-47.8} | |
| 1797 | +\newcommand{\relablationsseasonalvolwisHthreezero}{-3.33} | |
| 1798 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsseasonalvolwisHthreezero}{-37.8} | |
| 1799 | +\newcommand{\relablationsseasonalvolwisHsixzero}{-3.54} | |
| 1800 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsseasonalvolwisHsixzero}{-29.1} | |
| 1801 | +\newcommand{\relablationsewmaqlikeHfive}{-12797135612615.71} | |
| 1802 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsewmaqlikeHfive}{-41.9} | |
| 1803 | +\newcommand{\relablationsewmaqlikeHonefive}{-10996225269347.05} | |
| 1804 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsewmaqlikeHonefive}{-30.9} | |
| 1805 | +\newcommand{\relablationsewmaqlikeHthreezero}{-8956891977333.71} | |
| 1806 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsewmaqlikeHthreezero}{-18.6} | |
| 1807 | +\newcommand{\relablationsewmaqlikeHsixzero}{-6156613654049.44} | |
| 1808 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsewmaqlikeHsixzero}{-9.7} | |
| 1809 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemfivemqlikeHfive}{-16784744013233.53} | |
| 1810 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemfivemqlikeHfive}{-59.9} | |
| 1811 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemfivemqlikeHonefive}{-15622125901051.64} | |
| 1812 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemfivemqlikeHonefive}{-46.0} | |
| 1813 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemfivemqlikeHthreezero}{-14624940309040.50} | |
| 1814 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemfivemqlikeHthreezero}{-34.1} | |
| 1815 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemfivemqlikeHsixzero}{-13851597366601.78} | |
| 1816 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemfivemqlikeHsixzero}{-26.2} | |
| 1817 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkqlikeHfive}{-16682128295657.17} | |
| 1818 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkqlikeHfive}{-59.4} | |
| 1819 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkqlikeHonefive}{-15504495830411.61} | |
| 1820 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkqlikeHonefive}{-45.7} | |
| 1821 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkqlikeHthreezero}{-14458082208296.45} | |
| 1822 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkqlikeHthreezero}{-33.6} | |
| 1823 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkqlikeHsixzero}{-13629863580734.50} | |
| 1824 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkqlikeHsixzero}{-26.1} | |
| 1825 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallbfourkqlikeHfive}{-16657958587227.36} | |
| 1826 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallbfourkqlikeHfive}{-55.5} | |
| 1827 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallbfourkqlikeHonefive}{-15462895213783.44} | |
| 1828 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallbfourkqlikeHonefive}{-39.4} | |
| 1829 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallbfourkqlikeHthreezero}{-14430786147004.57} | |
| 1830 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallbfourkqlikeHthreezero}{-29.8} | |
| 1831 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallbfourkqlikeHsixzero}{-13706732055369.20} | |
| 1832 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallbfourkqlikeHsixzero}{-24.3} | |
| 1833 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepqlikeHfive}{-16951548536150.86} | |
| 1834 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepqlikeHfive}{-59.2} | |
| 1835 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepqlikeHonefive}{-15690158350405.80} | |
| 1836 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepqlikeHonefive}{-43.2} | |
| 1837 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepqlikeHthreezero}{-14667427641248.20} | |
| 1838 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepqlikeHthreezero}{-33.0} | |
| 1839 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepqlikeHsixzero}{-13884192245774.20} | |
| 1840 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepqlikeHsixzero}{-26.8} | |
| 1841 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaqlikeHfive}{-16948981438808.30} | |
| 1842 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaqlikeHfive}{-59.2} | |
| 1843 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaqlikeHonefive}{-15712124967684.59} | |
| 1844 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaqlikeHonefive}{-43.8} | |
| 1845 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaqlikeHthreezero}{-14675119287554.53} | |
| 1846 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaqlikeHthreezero}{-33.0} | |
| 1847 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcopulaqlikeHsixzero}{-13887273577946.58} | |
| 1848 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcopulaqlikeHsixzero}{-26.8} | |
| 1849 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcrossqlikeHfive}{-16477620786066.72} | |
| 1850 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcrossqlikeHfive}{-56.7} | |
| 1851 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcrossqlikeHonefive}{-15395434686456.88} | |
| 1852 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcrossqlikeHonefive}{-42.1} | |
| 1853 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcrossqlikeHthreezero}{-14397167048267.78} | |
| 1854 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcrossqlikeHthreezero}{-31.5} | |
| 1855 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallcrossqlikeHsixzero}{-13604618987866.28} | |
| 1856 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallcrossqlikeHsixzero}{-24.5} | |
| 1857 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallgaussianqlikeHfive}{+nan} | |
| 1858 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallgaussianqlikeHfive}{nan} | |
| 1859 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallgaussianqlikeHonefive}{+nan} | |
| 1860 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallgaussianqlikeHonefive}{nan} | |
| 1861 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallgaussianqlikeHthreezero}{+nan} | |
| 1862 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallgaussianqlikeHthreezero}{nan} | |
| 1863 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallgaussianqlikeHsixzero}{+nan} | |
| 1864 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallgaussianqlikeHsixzero}{nan} | |
| 1865 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeqlikeHfive}{-15982022088717.06} | |
| 1866 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeqlikeHfive}{-54.4} | |
| 1867 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeqlikeHonefive}{-14939742152795.70} | |
| 1868 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeqlikeHonefive}{-35.5} | |
| 1869 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeqlikeHthreezero}{-13982332706927.23} | |
| 1870 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeqlikeHthreezero}{-26.5} | |
| 1871 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeqlikeHsixzero}{-13221064495583.95} | |
| 1872 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeqlikeHsixzero}{-20.5} | |
| 1873 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallnoregimeqlikeHfive}{-16629184340488.87} | |
| 1874 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallnoregimeqlikeHfive}{-56.0} | |
| 1875 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallnoregimeqlikeHonefive}{-15488419278646.12} | |
| 1876 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallnoregimeqlikeHonefive}{-40.1} | |
| 1877 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallnoregimeqlikeHthreezero}{-14484665919159.43} | |
| 1878 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallnoregimeqlikeHthreezero}{-30.4} | |
| 1879 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallnoregimeqlikeHsixzero}{-13734597152600.11} | |
| 1880 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallnoregimeqlikeHsixzero}{-24.6} | |
| 1881 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallohlcvqlikeHfive}{-16770234070599.82} | |
| 1882 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallohlcvqlikeHfive}{-59.8} | |
| 1883 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallohlcvqlikeHonefive}{-15523510736175.88} | |
| 1884 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallohlcvqlikeHonefive}{-42.6} | |
| 1885 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallohlcvqlikeHthreezero}{-14480669945622.36} | |
| 1886 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallohlcvqlikeHthreezero}{-31.7} | |
| 1887 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallohlcvqlikeHsixzero}{-13679772431460.47} | |
| 1888 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallohlcvqlikeHsixzero}{-25.4} | |
| 1889 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyqlikeHfive}{-15515037879753.99} | |
| 1890 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyqlikeHfive}{-54.3} | |
| 1891 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyqlikeHonefive}{-14390965004586.04} | |
| 1892 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyqlikeHonefive}{-43.5} | |
| 1893 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyqlikeHthreezero}{-13413503383533.83} | |
| 1894 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyqlikeHthreezero}{-32.7} | |
| 1895 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyqlikeHsixzero}{-12530275872494.17} | |
| 1896 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyqlikeHsixzero}{-25.1} | |
| 1897 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedtwoqlikeHfive}{-16497879899613.40} | |
| 1898 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedtwoqlikeHfive}{-57.8} | |
| 1899 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedtwoqlikeHonefive}{-15476396745890.30} | |
| 1900 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedtwoqlikeHonefive}{-42.5} | |
| 1901 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedtwoqlikeHthreezero}{-14526322790109.15} | |
| 1902 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedtwoqlikeHthreezero}{-32.3} | |
| 1903 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedtwoqlikeHsixzero}{-13798126855747.98} | |
| 1904 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedtwoqlikeHsixzero}{-25.9} | |
| 1905 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedthreeqlikeHfive}{-16655899365263.51} | |
| 1906 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedthreeqlikeHfive}{-58.9} | |
| 1907 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedthreeqlikeHonefive}{-15561892972445.38} | |
| 1908 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedthreeqlikeHonefive}{-39.5} | |
| 1909 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedthreeqlikeHthreezero}{-14569260518274.63} | |
| 1910 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedthreeqlikeHthreezero}{-29.8} | |
| 1911 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallseedthreeqlikeHsixzero}{-13809809983706.30} | |
| 1912 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallseedthreeqlikeHsixzero}{-24.0} | |
| 1913 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallshuffledqlikeHfive}{-16219489645759.21} | |
| 1914 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallshuffledqlikeHfive}{-54.7} | |
| 1915 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallshuffledqlikeHonefive}{-15162605435693.42} | |
| 1916 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallshuffledqlikeHonefive}{-41.3} | |
| 1917 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallshuffledqlikeHthreezero}{-14211178831079.84} | |
| 1918 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallshuffledqlikeHthreezero}{-31.4} | |
| 1919 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmallshuffledqlikeHsixzero}{-13447203006371.54} | |
| 1920 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmallshuffledqlikeHsixzero}{-25.0} | |
| 1921 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltickerqlikeHfive}{-16849595421583.20} | |
| 1922 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltickerqlikeHfive}{-60.8} | |
| 1923 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltickerqlikeHonefive}{-15626699642085.73} | |
| 1924 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltickerqlikeHonefive}{-44.8} | |
| 1925 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltickerqlikeHthreezero}{-14612058375530.91} | |
| 1926 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltickerqlikeHthreezero}{-34.3} | |
| 1927 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltickerqlikeHsixzero}{-13771726203549.97} | |
| 1928 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltickerqlikeHsixzero}{-28.1} | |
| 1929 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyqlikeHfive}{-15468805633803.32} | |
| 1930 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyqlikeHfive}{-55.0} | |
| 1931 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyqlikeHonefive}{-14353894638305.93} | |
| 1932 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyqlikeHonefive}{-43.5} | |
| 1933 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyqlikeHthreezero}{-13381301995988.36} | |
| 1934 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyqlikeHthreezero}{-32.6} | |
| 1935 | +\newcommand{\relablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyqlikeHsixzero}{-12502617002976.35} | |
| 1936 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyqlikeHsixzero}{-24.8} | |
| 1937 | +\newcommand{\relablationsseasonalvolqlikeHfive}{-8472593190631.71} | |
| 1938 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsseasonalvolqlikeHfive}{-26.5} | |
| 1939 | +\newcommand{\relablationsseasonalvolqlikeHonefive}{-8305269577503.39} | |
| 1940 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsseasonalvolqlikeHonefive}{-23.8} | |
| 1941 | +\newcommand{\relablationsseasonalvolqlikeHthreezero}{-7325382995932.99} | |
| 1942 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsseasonalvolqlikeHthreezero}{-14.1} | |
| 1943 | +\newcommand{\relablationsseasonalvolqlikeHsixzero}{-6019653909459.67} | |
| 1944 | +\newcommand{\dmrelablationsseasonalvolqlikeHsixzero}{-7.4} | |
| 1945 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsewmaHfive}{0.4547} | |
| 1946 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsewmaHfive}{54} | |
| 1947 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsewmaHfive}{96.9} | |
| 1948 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsewmaHonefive}{0.4425} | |
| 1949 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsewmaHonefive}{54} | |
| 1950 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsewmaHonefive}{97.2} | |
| 1951 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsewmaHthreezero}{0.4326} | |
| 1952 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsewmaHthreezero}{55} | |
| 1953 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsewmaHthreezero}{97.3} | |
| 1954 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsewmaHsixzero}{0.4214} | |
| 1955 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsewmaHsixzero}{56} | |
| 1956 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsewmaHsixzero}{97.5} | |
| 1957 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallonemfivemHfive}{0.4537} | |
| 1958 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallonemfivemHfive}{55} | |
| 1959 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallonemfivemHfive}{95.7} | |
| 1960 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallonemfivemHonefive}{0.4418} | |
| 1961 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallonemfivemHonefive}{57} | |
| 1962 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallonemfivemHonefive}{95.9} | |
| 1963 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallonemfivemHthreezero}{0.4316} | |
| 1964 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallonemfivemHthreezero}{57} | |
| 1965 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallonemfivemHthreezero}{96.1} | |
| 1966 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallonemfivemHsixzero}{0.4191} | |
| 1967 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallonemfivemHsixzero}{58} | |
| 1968 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallonemfivemHsixzero}{96.2} | |
| 1969 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkHfive}{0.4538} | |
| 1970 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkHfive}{55} | |
| 1971 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkHfive}{95.7} | |
| 1972 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkHonefive}{0.4420} | |
| 1973 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkHonefive}{57} | |
| 1974 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkHonefive}{95.9} | |
| 1975 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkHthreezero}{0.4318} | |
| 1976 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkHthreezero}{57} | |
| 1977 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkHthreezero}{96.1} | |
| 1978 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkHsixzero}{0.4195} | |
| 1979 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkHsixzero}{58} | |
| 1980 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkHsixzero}{96.2} | |
| 1981 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{0.4533} | |
| 1982 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{54} | |
| 1983 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{95.4} | |
| 1984 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{0.4415} | |
| 1985 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{56} | |
| 1986 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{95.8} | |
| 1987 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{0.4312} | |
| 1988 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{57} | |
| 1989 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{95.9} | |
| 1990 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{0.4188} | |
| 1991 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{58} | |
| 1992 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{96.1} | |
| 1993 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepHfive}{0.4535} | |
| 1994 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepHfive}{55} | |
| 1995 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepHfive}{95.7} | |
| 1996 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepHonefive}{0.4416} | |
| 1997 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepHonefive}{57} | |
| 1998 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepHonefive}{96.0} | |
| 1999 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepHthreezero}{0.4314} | |
| 2000 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepHthreezero}{57} | |
| 2001 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepHthreezero}{96.1} | |
| 2002 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepHsixzero}{0.4191} | |
| 2003 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepHsixzero}{58} | |
| 2004 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallcopulaindepHsixzero}{96.2} | |
| 2005 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallcopulaHfive}{0.4534} | |
| 2006 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallcopulaHfive}{55} | |
| 2007 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallcopulaHfive}{95.7} | |
| 2008 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallcopulaHonefive}{0.4417} | |
| 2009 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallcopulaHonefive}{57} | |
| 2010 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallcopulaHonefive}{96.0} | |
| 2011 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallcopulaHthreezero}{0.4316} | |
| 2012 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallcopulaHthreezero}{58} | |
| 2013 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallcopulaHthreezero}{96.2} | |
| 2014 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallcopulaHsixzero}{0.4194} | |
| 2015 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallcopulaHsixzero}{58} | |
| 2016 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallcopulaHsixzero}{96.4} | |
| 2017 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallcrossHfive}{0.4535} | |
| 2018 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallcrossHfive}{55} | |
| 2019 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallcrossHfive}{95.5} | |
| 2020 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallcrossHonefive}{0.4416} | |
| 2021 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallcrossHonefive}{56} | |
| 2022 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallcrossHonefive}{95.8} | |
| 2023 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallcrossHthreezero}{0.4313} | |
| 2024 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallcrossHthreezero}{57} | |
| 2025 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallcrossHthreezero}{96.0} | |
| 2026 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallcrossHsixzero}{0.4190} | |
| 2027 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallcrossHsixzero}{58} | |
| 2028 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallcrossHsixzero}{96.1} | |
| 2029 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallgaussianHfive}{nan} | |
| 2030 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallgaussianHfive}{0} | |
| 2031 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallgaussianHfive}{0.0} | |
| 2032 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallgaussianHonefive}{nan} | |
| 2033 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallgaussianHonefive}{0} | |
| 2034 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallgaussianHonefive}{0.0} | |
| 2035 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallgaussianHthreezero}{nan} | |
| 2036 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallgaussianHthreezero}{0} | |
| 2037 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallgaussianHthreezero}{0.0} | |
| 2038 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallgaussianHsixzero}{nan} | |
| 2039 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallgaussianHsixzero}{0} | |
| 2040 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallgaussianHsixzero}{0.0} | |
| 2041 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeHfive}{0.4531} | |
| 2042 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeHfive}{54} | |
| 2043 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeHfive}{95.1} | |
| 2044 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeHonefive}{0.4410} | |
| 2045 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeHonefive}{55} | |
| 2046 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeHonefive}{95.4} | |
| 2047 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeHthreezero}{0.4306} | |
| 2048 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeHthreezero}{56} | |
| 2049 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeHthreezero}{95.6} | |
| 2050 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeHsixzero}{0.4182} | |
| 2051 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeHsixzero}{57} | |
| 2052 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimeHsixzero}{95.7} | |
| 2053 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallnoregimeHfive}{0.4534} | |
| 2054 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallnoregimeHfive}{54} | |
| 2055 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallnoregimeHfive}{95.4} | |
| 2056 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallnoregimeHonefive}{0.4414} | |
| 2057 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallnoregimeHonefive}{56} | |
| 2058 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallnoregimeHonefive}{95.7} | |
| 2059 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallnoregimeHthreezero}{0.4312} | |
| 2060 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallnoregimeHthreezero}{57} | |
| 2061 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallnoregimeHthreezero}{95.9} | |
| 2062 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallnoregimeHsixzero}{0.4188} | |
| 2063 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallnoregimeHsixzero}{58} | |
| 2064 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallnoregimeHsixzero}{96.0} | |
| 2065 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallohlcvHfive}{0.4536} | |
| 2066 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallohlcvHfive}{55} | |
| 2067 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallohlcvHfive}{95.7} | |
| 2068 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallohlcvHonefive}{0.4418} | |
| 2069 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallohlcvHonefive}{57} | |
| 2070 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallohlcvHonefive}{96.0} | |
| 2071 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallohlcvHthreezero}{0.4316} | |
| 2072 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallohlcvHthreezero}{58} | |
| 2073 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallohlcvHthreezero}{96.2} | |
| 2074 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallohlcvHsixzero}{0.4193} | |
| 2075 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallohlcvHsixzero}{58} | |
| 2076 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallohlcvHsixzero}{96.3} | |
| 2077 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyHfive}{0.4542} | |
| 2078 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyHfive}{56} | |
| 2079 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyHfive}{95.9} | |
| 2080 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyHonefive}{0.4424} | |
| 2081 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyHonefive}{57} | |
| 2082 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyHonefive}{96.2} | |
| 2083 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyHthreezero}{0.4322} | |
| 2084 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyHthreezero}{58} | |
| 2085 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyHthreezero}{96.3} | |
| 2086 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyHsixzero}{0.4201} | |
| 2087 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyHsixzero}{59} | |
| 2088 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyHsixzero}{96.5} | |
| 2089 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallseedtwoHfive}{0.4531} | |
| 2090 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallseedtwoHfive}{54} | |
| 2091 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallseedtwoHfive}{95.3} | |
| 2092 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallseedtwoHonefive}{0.4411} | |
| 2093 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallseedtwoHonefive}{56} | |
| 2094 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallseedtwoHonefive}{95.7} | |
| 2095 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallseedtwoHthreezero}{0.4308} | |
| 2096 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallseedtwoHthreezero}{57} | |
| 2097 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallseedtwoHthreezero}{95.8} | |
| 2098 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallseedtwoHsixzero}{0.4187} | |
| 2099 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallseedtwoHsixzero}{58} | |
| 2100 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallseedtwoHsixzero}{96.0} | |
| 2101 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallseedthreeHfive}{0.4531} | |
| 2102 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallseedthreeHfive}{54} | |
| 2103 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallseedthreeHfive}{95.3} | |
| 2104 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallseedthreeHonefive}{0.4413} | |
| 2105 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallseedthreeHonefive}{56} | |
| 2106 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallseedthreeHonefive}{95.6} | |
| 2107 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallseedthreeHthreezero}{0.4312} | |
| 2108 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallseedthreeHthreezero}{56} | |
| 2109 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallseedthreeHthreezero}{95.8} | |
| 2110 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallseedthreeHsixzero}{0.4194} | |
| 2111 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallseedthreeHsixzero}{57} | |
| 2112 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallseedthreeHsixzero}{96.0} | |
| 2113 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallshuffledHfive}{0.4538} | |
| 2114 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallshuffledHfive}{55} | |
| 2115 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallshuffledHfive}{95.7} | |
| 2116 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallshuffledHonefive}{0.4420} | |
| 2117 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallshuffledHonefive}{57} | |
| 2118 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallshuffledHonefive}{96.0} | |
| 2119 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallshuffledHthreezero}{0.4318} | |
| 2120 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallshuffledHthreezero}{58} | |
| 2121 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallshuffledHthreezero}{96.2} | |
| 2122 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmallshuffledHsixzero}{0.4196} | |
| 2123 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmallshuffledHsixzero}{58} | |
| 2124 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmallshuffledHsixzero}{96.3} | |
| 2125 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmalltickerHfive}{0.4534} | |
| 2126 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmalltickerHfive}{55} | |
| 2127 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmalltickerHfive}{95.7} | |
| 2128 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmalltickerHonefive}{0.4418} | |
| 2129 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmalltickerHonefive}{57} | |
| 2130 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmalltickerHonefive}{96.0} | |
| 2131 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmalltickerHthreezero}{0.4318} | |
| 2132 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmalltickerHthreezero}{58} | |
| 2133 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmalltickerHthreezero}{96.2} | |
| 2134 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmalltickerHsixzero}{0.4199} | |
| 2135 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmalltickerHsixzero}{59} | |
| 2136 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmalltickerHsixzero}{96.4} | |
| 2137 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyHfive}{0.4542} | |
| 2138 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyHfive}{56} | |
| 2139 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyHfive}{95.9} | |
| 2140 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyHonefive}{0.4424} | |
| 2141 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyHonefive}{57} | |
| 2142 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyHonefive}{96.2} | |
| 2143 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyHthreezero}{0.4323} | |
| 2144 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyHthreezero}{58} | |
| 2145 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyHthreezero}{96.3} | |
| 2146 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyHsixzero}{0.4200} | |
| 2147 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyHsixzero}{59} | |
| 2148 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyHsixzero}{96.4} | |
| 2149 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsnaiverwHfive}{0.4699} | |
| 2150 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsnaiverwHfive}{65} | |
| 2151 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsnaiverwHfive}{96.6} | |
| 2152 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsnaiverwHonefive}{0.4575} | |
| 2153 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsnaiverwHonefive}{66} | |
| 2154 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsnaiverwHonefive}{97.0} | |
| 2155 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsnaiverwHthreezero}{0.4469} | |
| 2156 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsnaiverwHthreezero}{67} | |
| 2157 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsnaiverwHthreezero}{97.4} | |
| 2158 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsnaiverwHsixzero}{0.4347} | |
| 2159 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsnaiverwHsixzero}{68} | |
| 2160 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsnaiverwHsixzero}{97.8} | |
| 2161 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsseasonalvolHfive}{0.4582} | |
| 2162 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsseasonalvolHfive}{56} | |
| 2163 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsseasonalvolHfive}{94.1} | |
| 2164 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsseasonalvolHonefive}{0.4453} | |
| 2165 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsseasonalvolHonefive}{56} | |
| 2166 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsseasonalvolHonefive}{94.5} | |
| 2167 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsseasonalvolHthreezero}{0.4347} | |
| 2168 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsseasonalvolHthreezero}{56} | |
| 2169 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsseasonalvolHthreezero}{94.6} | |
| 2170 | +\newcommand{\crpsablationsseasonalvolHsixzero}{0.4221} | |
| 2171 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyablationsseasonalvolHsixzero}{57} | |
| 2172 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfiveablationsseasonalvolHsixzero}{94.7} | |
| 2173 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{+0.12} | |
| 2174 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{15.0} | |
| 2175 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{0} | |
| 2176 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{+0.14} | |
| 2177 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{16.7} | |
| 2178 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{0} | |
| 2179 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{+0.15} | |
| 2180 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{13.6} | |
| 2181 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{0} | |
| 2182 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{+0.16} | |
| 2183 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{11.2} | |
| 2184 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallonemonlybfourkvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{0} | |
| 2185 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallonemfivemvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{+0.10} | |
| 2186 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallonemfivemvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{13.4} | |
| 2187 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallonemfivemvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{0} | |
| 2188 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallonemfivemvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{+0.11} | |
| 2189 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallonemfivemvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{12.7} | |
| 2190 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallonemfivemvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{0} | |
| 2191 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallonemfivemvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{+0.11} | |
| 2192 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallonemfivemvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{11.9} | |
| 2193 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallonemfivemvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{0} | |
| 2194 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallonemfivemvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{+0.10} | |
| 2195 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallonemfivemvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{7.9} | |
| 2196 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallonemfivemvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{1.07e-13} | |
| 2197 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallcrossvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{+0.05} | |
| 2198 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallcrossvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{6.1} | |
| 2199 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallcrossvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{2.58e-08} | |
| 2200 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallcrossvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{+0.04} | |
| 2201 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallcrossvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{5.2} | |
| 2202 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallcrossvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{4.49e-06} | |
| 2203 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallcrossvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{+0.05} | |
| 2204 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallcrossvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{4.8} | |
| 2205 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallcrossvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{3.68e-05} | |
| 2206 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallcrossvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{+0.05} | |
| 2207 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallcrossvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{4.4} | |
| 2208 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallcrossvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{0.000183} | |
| 2209 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallgaussianvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{+nan} | |
| 2210 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallgaussianvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{nan} | |
| 2211 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallgaussianvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{1} | |
| 2212 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallgaussianvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{+nan} | |
| 2213 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallgaussianvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{nan} | |
| 2214 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallgaussianvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{1} | |
| 2215 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallgaussianvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{+nan} | |
| 2216 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallgaussianvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{nan} | |
| 2217 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallgaussianvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{1} | |
| 2218 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallgaussianvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{+nan} | |
| 2219 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallgaussianvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{nan} | |
| 2220 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallgaussianvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{1} | |
| 2221 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallnoregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{+0.02} | |
| 2222 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallnoregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{4.0} | |
| 2223 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallnoregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{0.00133} | |
| 2224 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallnoregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{+0.02} | |
| 2225 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallnoregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{3.1} | |
| 2226 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallnoregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{0.0344} | |
| 2227 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallnoregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{+0.02} | |
| 2228 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallnoregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{2.4} | |
| 2229 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallnoregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{0.285} | |
| 2230 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallnoregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{+0.03} | |
| 2231 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallnoregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{2.1} | |
| 2232 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallnoregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{0.481} | |
| 2233 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{-0.03} | |
| 2234 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{-2.4} | |
| 2235 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{0.285} | |
| 2236 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{-0.08} | |
| 2237 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{-6.8} | |
| 2238 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{2.24e-10} | |
| 2239 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{-0.12} | |
| 2240 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{-6.2} | |
| 2241 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{1.79e-08} | |
| 2242 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{-0.15} | |
| 2243 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{-4.5} | |
| 2244 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmalllearnedregimevsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{0.000159} | |
| 2245 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{+0.19} | |
| 2246 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{14.8} | |
| 2247 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{0} | |
| 2248 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{+0.21} | |
| 2249 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{14.1} | |
| 2250 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{0} | |
| 2251 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{+0.23} | |
| 2252 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{10.3} | |
| 2253 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{0} | |
| 2254 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{+0.27} | |
| 2255 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{8.6} | |
| 2256 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallreturnsonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{0} | |
| 2257 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{+0.20} | |
| 2258 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{15.5} | |
| 2259 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{0} | |
| 2260 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{+0.23} | |
| 2261 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{15.4} | |
| 2262 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{0} | |
| 2263 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{+0.25} | |
| 2264 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{11.2} | |
| 2265 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{0} | |
| 2266 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{+0.29} | |
| 2267 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{9.2} | |
| 2268 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmalltimeonlyvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{0} | |
| 2269 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallohlcvvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{+0.08} | |
| 2270 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallohlcvvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{12.5} | |
| 2271 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallohlcvvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{0} | |
| 2272 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallohlcvvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{+0.10} | |
| 2273 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallohlcvvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{14.0} | |
| 2274 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallohlcvvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{0} | |
| 2275 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallohlcvvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{+0.12} | |
| 2276 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallohlcvvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{13.6} | |
| 2277 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallohlcvvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{0} | |
| 2278 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallohlcvvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{+0.14} | |
| 2279 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallohlcvvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{11.2} | |
| 2280 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallohlcvvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{0} | |
| 2281 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallshuffledvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{+0.13} | |
| 2282 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallshuffledvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{12.5} | |
| 2283 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallshuffledvsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{0} | |
| 2284 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallshuffledvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{+0.13} | |
| 2285 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallshuffledvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{13.4} | |
| 2286 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallshuffledvsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{0} | |
| 2287 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallshuffledvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{+0.16} | |
| 2288 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallshuffledvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{12.2} | |
| 2289 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallshuffledvsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{0} | |
| 2290 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallshuffledvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{+0.21} | |
| 2291 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallshuffledvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{14.5} | |
| 2292 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallshuffledvsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{0} | |
| 2293 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmalltickervsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{+0.05} | |
| 2294 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmalltickervsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{6.2} | |
| 2295 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmalltickervsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{1.32e-08} | |
| 2296 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmalltickervsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{+0.13} | |
| 2297 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmalltickervsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{14.6} | |
| 2298 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmalltickervsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{0} | |
| 2299 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmalltickervsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{+0.20} | |
| 2300 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmalltickervsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{15.0} | |
| 2301 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmalltickervsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{0} | |
| 2302 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmalltickervsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{+0.31} | |
| 2303 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmalltickervsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{13.7} | |
| 2304 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmalltickervsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{0} | |
| 2305 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallseedtwovsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{+0.00} | |
| 2306 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallseedtwovsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{0.1} | |
| 2307 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallseedtwovsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{1} | |
| 2308 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallseedtwovsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{-0.03} | |
| 2309 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallseedtwovsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{-2.6} | |
| 2310 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallseedtwovsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{0.185} | |
| 2311 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallseedtwovsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{-0.02} | |
| 2312 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallseedtwovsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{-1.1} | |
| 2313 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallseedtwovsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{1} | |
| 2314 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallseedtwovsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{+0.05} | |
| 2315 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallseedtwovsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{1.5} | |
| 2316 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallseedtwovsmrptsmallbfourkHsixzero}{1} | |
| 2317 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallseedthreevsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{-0.02} | |
| 2318 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallseedthreevsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{-1.9} | |
| 2319 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallseedthreevsmrptsmallbfourkHfive}{0.697} | |
| 2320 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallseedthreevsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{-0.00} | |
| 2321 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallseedthreevsmrptsmallbfourkHonefive}{-0.3} | |
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| 2324 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallseedthreevsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{1.0} | |
| 2325 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallseedthreevsmrptsmallbfourkHthreezero}{1} | |
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| 2329 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallcopulavsmrptsmallcopulaindepHfive}{-0.01} | |
| 2330 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallcopulavsmrptsmallcopulaindepHfive}{-0.8} | |
| 2331 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallcopulavsmrptsmallcopulaindepHfive}{1} | |
| 2332 | +\newcommand{\pwablationsmrptsmallcopulavsmrptsmallcopulaindepHonefive}{+0.01} | |
| 2333 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallcopulavsmrptsmallcopulaindepHonefive}{0.6} | |
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| 2339 | +\newcommand{\tpwablationsmrptsmallcopulavsmrptsmallcopulaindepHsixzero}{4.7} | |
| 2340 | +\newcommand{\ppwablationsmrptsmallcopulavsmrptsmallcopulaindepHsixzero}{5.23e-05} | |
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| 2613 | +\newcommand{\relfinalmrptsmallonemonlyqlikeHfive}{-17163562658657.87} | |
| 2614 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalmrptsmallonemonlyqlikeHfive}{-31.4} | |
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| 2616 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalmrptsmallonemonlyqlikeHonefive}{-45.8} | |
| 2617 | +\newcommand{\relfinalmrptsmallonemonlyqlikeHthreezero}{-14662674862923.33} | |
| 2618 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalmrptsmallonemonlyqlikeHthreezero}{-27.6} | |
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| 2620 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalmrptsmallonemonlyqlikeHsixzero}{-19.2} | |
| 2621 | +\newcommand{\relfinalmrptsmallqlikeHfive}{-17440754813666.25} | |
| 2622 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalmrptsmallqlikeHfive}{-31.0} | |
| 2623 | +\newcommand{\relfinalmrptsmallqlikeHonefive}{-16305890333133.57} | |
| 2624 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalmrptsmallqlikeHonefive}{-47.8} | |
| 2625 | +\newcommand{\relfinalmrptsmallqlikeHthreezero}{-15169985549993.04} | |
| 2626 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalmrptsmallqlikeHthreezero}{-31.2} | |
| 2627 | +\newcommand{\relfinalmrptsmallqlikeHsixzero}{-14264208670641.35} | |
| 2628 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalmrptsmallqlikeHsixzero}{-22.8} | |
| 2629 | +\newcommand{\relfinalridgeqlikeHfive}{+5421776570677.55} | |
| 2630 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalridgeqlikeHfive}{4.5} | |
| 2631 | +\newcommand{\relfinalridgeqlikeHonefive}{-12163950482648.31} | |
| 2632 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalridgeqlikeHonefive}{-27.4} | |
| 2633 | +\newcommand{\relfinalridgeqlikeHthreezero}{-12503369384123.90} | |
| 2634 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalridgeqlikeHthreezero}{-21.0} | |
| 2635 | +\newcommand{\relfinalridgeqlikeHsixzero}{-11996364901816.19} | |
| 2636 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalridgeqlikeHsixzero}{-15.1} | |
| 2637 | +\newcommand{\relfinalseasonalvolqlikeHfive}{-6363806176097.87} | |
| 2638 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalseasonalvolqlikeHfive}{-7.9} | |
| 2639 | +\newcommand{\relfinalseasonalvolqlikeHonefive}{-7197644638305.72} | |
| 2640 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalseasonalvolqlikeHonefive}{-16.3} | |
| 2641 | +\newcommand{\relfinalseasonalvolqlikeHthreezero}{-6261095459335.80} | |
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| 2643 | +\newcommand{\relfinalseasonalvolqlikeHsixzero}{-4990594413186.81} | |
| 2644 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinalseasonalvolqlikeHsixzero}{-5.3} | |
| 2645 | +\newcommand{\relfinaltcnqlikeHfive}{-16919024556944.02} | |
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| 2649 | +\newcommand{\relfinaltcnqlikeHthreezero}{-14195580190418.18} | |
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| 2652 | +\newcommand{\dmrelfinaltcnqlikeHsixzero}{-22.0} | |
| 2653 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalelasticnetHfive}{0.4663} | |
| 2654 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalelasticnetHfive}{37} | |
| 2655 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalelasticnetHfive}{89.8} | |
| 2656 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalelasticnetHonefive}{0.4449} | |
| 2657 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalelasticnetHonefive}{47} | |
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| 2659 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalelasticnetHthreezero}{0.4351} | |
| 2660 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalelasticnetHthreezero}{48} | |
| 2661 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalelasticnetHthreezero}{95.2} | |
| 2662 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalelasticnetHsixzero}{0.4232} | |
| 2663 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalelasticnetHsixzero}{49} | |
| 2664 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalelasticnetHsixzero}{95.6} | |
| 2665 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalewmaHfive}{0.4609} | |
| 2666 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalewmaHfive}{53} | |
| 2667 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalewmaHfive}{96.8} | |
| 2668 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalewmaHonefive}{0.4470} | |
| 2669 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalewmaHonefive}{54} | |
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| 2675 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalewmaHsixzero}{56} | |
| 2676 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalewmaHsixzero}{97.4} | |
| 2677 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalgarchtHfive}{0.4616} | |
| 2678 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalgarchtHfive}{52} | |
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| 2680 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalgarchtHonefive}{0.4468} | |
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| 2683 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalgarchtHthreezero}{0.4380} | |
| 2684 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalgarchtHthreezero}{55} | |
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| 2686 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalgarchtHsixzero}{0.4286} | |
| 2687 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalgarchtHsixzero}{57} | |
| 2688 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalgarchtHsixzero}{97.4} | |
| 2689 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalharrvHfive}{0.4674} | |
| 2690 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalharrvHfive}{60} | |
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| 2692 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalharrvHonefive}{0.4450} | |
| 2693 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalharrvHonefive}{50} | |
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| 2695 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalharrvHthreezero}{0.4352} | |
| 2696 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalharrvHthreezero}{48} | |
| 2697 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalharrvHthreezero}{96.0} | |
| 2698 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalharrvHsixzero}{0.4232} | |
| 2699 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalharrvHsixzero}{49} | |
| 2700 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalharrvHsixzero}{96.1} | |
| 2701 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinallightgbmHfive}{0.4655} | |
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| 2704 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinallightgbmHonefive}{0.4457} | |
| 2705 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinallightgbmHonefive}{44} | |
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| 2707 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinallightgbmHthreezero}{0.4347} | |
| 2708 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinallightgbmHthreezero}{48} | |
| 2709 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinallightgbmHthreezero}{95.2} | |
| 2710 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinallightgbmHsixzero}{0.4232} | |
| 2711 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinallightgbmHsixzero}{50} | |
| 2712 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinallightgbmHsixzero}{95.5} | |
| 2713 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalmlpHfive}{0.4600} | |
| 2714 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalmlpHfive}{55} | |
| 2715 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalmlpHfive}{95.6} | |
| 2716 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalmlpHonefive}{0.4465} | |
| 2717 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalmlpHonefive}{57} | |
| 2718 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalmlpHonefive}{96.0} | |
| 2719 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalmlpHthreezero}{0.4371} | |
| 2720 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalmlpHthreezero}{58} | |
| 2721 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalmlpHthreezero}{96.1} | |
| 2722 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalmlpHsixzero}{0.4260} | |
| 2723 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalmlpHsixzero}{58} | |
| 2724 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalmlpHsixzero}{96.2} | |
| 2725 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalmrptbaseHfive}{0.4595} | |
| 2726 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalmrptbaseHfive}{55} | |
| 2727 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalmrptbaseHfive}{95.6} | |
| 2728 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalmrptbaseHonefive}{0.4462} | |
| 2729 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalmrptbaseHonefive}{57} | |
| 2730 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalmrptbaseHonefive}{95.9} | |
| 2731 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalmrptbaseHthreezero}{0.4368} | |
| 2732 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalmrptbaseHthreezero}{57} | |
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| 2734 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalmrptbaseHsixzero}{0.4257} | |
| 2735 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalmrptbaseHsixzero}{58} | |
| 2736 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalmrptbaseHsixzero}{96.1} | |
| 2737 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalmrptsmallonemonlyHfive}{0.4594} | |
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| 2742 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalmrptsmallonemonlyHonefive}{95.8} | |
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| 2747 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalmrptsmallonemonlyHsixzero}{58} | |
| 2748 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalmrptsmallonemonlyHsixzero}{96.0} | |
| 2749 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalmrptsmallHfive}{0.4594} | |
| 2750 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalmrptsmallHfive}{55} | |
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| 2755 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalmrptsmallHthreezero}{0.4368} | |
| 2756 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalmrptsmallHthreezero}{57} | |
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| 2758 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalmrptsmallHsixzero}{0.4256} | |
| 2759 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalmrptsmallHsixzero}{58} | |
| 2760 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalmrptsmallHsixzero}{96.1} | |
| 2761 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalnaiverwHfive}{0.4759} | |
| 2762 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalnaiverwHfive}{64} | |
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| 2765 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalnaiverwHonefive}{66} | |
| 2766 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalnaiverwHonefive}{96.9} | |
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| 2768 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalnaiverwHthreezero}{66} | |
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| 2773 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalridgeHfive}{0.4663} | |
| 2774 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalridgeHfive}{37} | |
| 2775 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalridgeHfive}{89.8} | |
| 2776 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalridgeHonefive}{0.4449} | |
| 2777 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalridgeHonefive}{47} | |
| 2778 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalridgeHonefive}{94.6} | |
| 2779 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalridgeHthreezero}{0.4350} | |
| 2780 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalridgeHthreezero}{48} | |
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| 2783 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalridgeHsixzero}{49} | |
| 2784 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalridgeHsixzero}{95.5} | |
| 2785 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalseasonalvolHfive}{0.4655} | |
| 2786 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalseasonalvolHfive}{56} | |
| 2787 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalseasonalvolHfive}{94.0} | |
| 2788 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinalseasonalvolHonefive}{0.4505} | |
| 2789 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalseasonalvolHonefive}{56} | |
| 2790 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalseasonalvolHonefive}{94.6} | |
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| 2795 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinalseasonalvolHsixzero}{57} | |
| 2796 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinalseasonalvolHsixzero}{94.6} | |
| 2797 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinaltcnHfive}{0.4600} | |
| 2798 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinaltcnHfive}{55} | |
| 2799 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinaltcnHfive}{95.9} | |
| 2800 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinaltcnHonefive}{0.4471} | |
| 2801 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinaltcnHonefive}{58} | |
| 2802 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinaltcnHonefive}{96.3} | |
| 2803 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinaltcnHthreezero}{0.4379} | |
| 2804 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinaltcnHthreezero}{58} | |
| 2805 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinaltcnHthreezero}{96.4} | |
| 2806 | +\newcommand{\crpsfinaltcnHsixzero}{0.4271} | |
| 2807 | +\newcommand{\covfiftyfinaltcnHsixzero}{59} | |
| 2808 | +\newcommand{\covninetyfivefinaltcnHsixzero}{96.4} | |
| 2809 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHfive}{+0.01} | |
| 2810 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHfive}{1.3} | |
| 2811 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHfive}{1} | |
| 2812 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHonefive}{+0.02} | |
| 2813 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHonefive}{2.1} | |
| 2814 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHonefive}{0.363} | |
| 2815 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHthreezero}{+0.03} | |
| 2816 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHthreezero}{2.1} | |
| 2817 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHthreezero}{0.363} | |
| 2818 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHsixzero}{+0.01} | |
| 2819 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHsixzero}{0.7} | |
| 2820 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHsixzero}{1} | |
| 2821 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptbasevsmrptsmallHfive}{+0.02} | |
| 2822 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptbasevsmrptsmallHfive}{1.4} | |
| 2823 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptbasevsmrptsmallHfive}{1} | |
| 2824 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptbasevsmrptsmallHonefive}{+0.02} | |
| 2825 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptbasevsmrptsmallHonefive}{1.4} | |
| 2826 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptbasevsmrptsmallHonefive}{1} | |
| 2827 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptbasevsmrptsmallHthreezero}{+0.01} | |
| 2828 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptbasevsmrptsmallHthreezero}{0.7} | |
| 2829 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptbasevsmrptsmallHthreezero}{1} | |
| 2830 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptbasevsmrptsmallHsixzero}{+0.02} | |
| 2831 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptbasevsmrptsmallHsixzero}{0.6} | |
| 2832 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptbasevsmrptsmallHsixzero}{1} | |
| 2833 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHfive}{-1.79} | |
| 2834 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHfive}{-36.1} | |
| 2835 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHfive}{0} | |
| 2836 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHonefive}{+0.18} | |
| 2837 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHonefive}{3.8} | |
| 2838 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHonefive}{0.00224} | |
| 2839 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHthreezero}{+0.26} | |
| 2840 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHthreezero}{4.2} | |
| 2841 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHthreezero}{0.00037} | |
| 2842 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHsixzero}{+0.48} | |
| 2843 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHsixzero}{6.2} | |
| 2844 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHsixzero}{1.12e-08} | |
| 2845 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsgarchtHfive}{-0.60} | |
| 2846 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsgarchtHfive}{-10.1} | |
| 2847 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsgarchtHfive}{0} | |
| 2848 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsgarchtHonefive}{-0.22} | |
| 2849 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsgarchtHonefive}{-2.9} | |
| 2850 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsgarchtHonefive}{0.052} | |
| 2851 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsgarchtHthreezero}{-0.43} | |
| 2852 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsgarchtHthreezero}{-7.9} | |
| 2853 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsgarchtHthreezero}{6.06e-14} | |
| 2854 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsgarchtHsixzero}{-0.85} | |
| 2855 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsgarchtHsixzero}{-8.4} | |
| 2856 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsgarchtHsixzero}{0} | |
| 2857 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsewmaHfive}{-0.47} | |
| 2858 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsewmaHfive}{-13.7} | |
| 2859 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsewmaHfive}{0} | |
| 2860 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsewmaHonefive}{-0.32} | |
| 2861 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsewmaHonefive}{-8.2} | |
| 2862 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsewmaHonefive}{4.88e-15} | |
| 2863 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsewmaHthreezero}{-0.48} | |
| 2864 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsewmaHthreezero}{-12.1} | |
| 2865 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsewmaHthreezero}{0} | |
| 2866 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsewmaHsixzero}{-0.79} | |
| 2867 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsewmaHsixzero}{-11.2} | |
| 2868 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsewmaHsixzero}{0} | |
| 2869 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvslightgbmHfive}{-1.42} | |
| 2870 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvslightgbmHfive}{-14.8} | |
| 2871 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvslightgbmHfive}{0} | |
| 2872 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvslightgbmHonefive}{-0.03} | |
| 2873 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvslightgbmHonefive}{-0.4} | |
| 2874 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvslightgbmHonefive}{1} | |
| 2875 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvslightgbmHthreezero}{+0.38} | |
| 2876 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvslightgbmHthreezero}{6.9} | |
| 2877 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvslightgbmHthreezero}{8.61e-11} | |
| 2878 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvslightgbmHsixzero}{+0.52} | |
| 2879 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvslightgbmHsixzero}{6.3} | |
| 2880 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvslightgbmHsixzero}{5.1e-09} | |
| 2881 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvstcnHfive}{-0.07} | |
| 2882 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvstcnHfive}{-3.3} | |
| 2883 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvstcnHfive}{0.0121} | |
| 2884 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvstcnHonefive}{-0.16} | |
| 2885 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvstcnHonefive}{-8.4} | |
| 2886 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvstcnHonefive}{0} | |
| 2887 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvstcnHthreezero}{-0.26} | |
| 2888 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvstcnHthreezero}{-12.0} | |
| 2889 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvstcnHthreezero}{0} | |
| 2890 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvstcnHsixzero}{-0.38} | |
| 2891 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvstcnHsixzero}{-10.6} | |
| 2892 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvstcnHsixzero}{0} | |
| 2893 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsmlpHfive}{-0.12} | |
| 2894 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsmlpHfive}{-3.0} | |
| 2895 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsmlpHfive}{0.0355} | |
| 2896 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsmlpHonefive}{-0.05} | |
| 2897 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsmlpHonefive}{-2.2} | |
| 2898 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsmlpHonefive}{0.337} | |
| 2899 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsmlpHthreezero}{-0.05} | |
| 2900 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsmlpHthreezero}{-1.9} | |
| 2901 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsmlpHthreezero}{0.516} | |
| 2902 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsmlpHsixzero}{-0.07} | |
| 2903 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsmlpHsixzero}{-1.8} | |
| 2904 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsmlpHsixzero}{0.549} | |
| 2905 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsnaiverwHfive}{-3.96} | |
| 2906 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsnaiverwHfive}{-42.3} | |
| 2907 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsnaiverwHfive}{0} | |
| 2908 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsnaiverwHonefive}{-3.89} | |
| 2909 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsnaiverwHonefive}{-46.2} | |
| 2910 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsnaiverwHonefive}{0} | |
| 2911 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsnaiverwHthreezero}{-3.85} | |
| 2912 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsnaiverwHthreezero}{-39.6} | |
| 2913 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsnaiverwHthreezero}{0} | |
| 2914 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalmrptsmallvsnaiverwHsixzero}{-3.91} | |
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| 3420 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsgarchtHsixzero}{0} | |
| 3421 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHfive}{-1.75} | |
| 3422 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHfive}{-13.1} | |
| 3423 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHfive}{0} | |
| 3424 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHonefive}{-0.33} | |
| 3425 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHonefive}{-2.7} | |
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| 3427 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvslightgbmHthreezero}{-0.30} | |
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| 3436 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHonefive}{-0.12} | |
| 3437 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHonefive}{-4.8} | |
| 3438 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHonefive}{2.51e-05} | |
| 3439 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvstcnHthreezero}{-0.17} | |
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| 3445 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHfive}{-0.20} | |
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| 3449 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHonefive}{-4.6} | |
| 3450 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHonefive}{8.7e-05} | |
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| 3452 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsmlpHthreezero}{-3.5} | |
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| 3458 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHfive}{-33.0} | |
| 3459 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHfive}{0} | |
| 3460 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHonefive}{-3.88} | |
| 3461 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHonefive}{-38.1} | |
| 3462 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHonefive}{0} | |
| 3463 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHthreezero}{-3.81} | |
| 3464 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHthreezero}{-32.2} | |
| 3465 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHthreezero}{0} | |
| 3466 | +\newcommand{\pwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHsixzero}{-3.81} | |
| 3467 | +\newcommand{\tpwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHsixzero}{-23.3} | |
| 3468 | +\newcommand{\ppwfinalheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHsixzero}{0} | |
modified
paper/sections/ablations.tex
+66 −1
@@ -1 +1,66 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% ablations — written in P8 | |
| 1 | +\section{Ablations and falsification} | |
| 2 | +\label{sec:ablations} | |
| 3 | + | |
| 4 | +Every variant in Table~\ref{tab:ablations_crps_scaled} is a Small model trained for \num{4000} steps with the same | |
| 5 | +seed and compared, on the 2024 development test, with a reference trained under exactly the same budget | |
| 6 | +(\textsc{mrpt-s}, 4k); two further seeds of the reference give the noise floor. Figure~\ref{fig:ablations_forest} | |
| 7 | +shows the relative CRPS changes at sixty minutes with their day-cluster intervals. | |
| 8 | + | |
| 9 | +\input{tables/ablations_crps_scaled} | |
| 10 | + | |
| 11 | +\paragraph{Resolutions (H1 again).} At this shorter budget removing the 5- and 30-minute branches costs | |
| 12 | +$+0.12$ to $+0.16$\,\% of CRPS, removing only the 30-minute branch $+0.10$\,\%; the seed-to-seed spread of the | |
| 13 | +reference is $-0.03$ to $+0.16$\,\%. Multi-resolution context is therefore a real but marginal regulariser at small | |
| 14 | +budgets and, as Section~\ref{sec:results} showed, nothing at all at the full budget and out of sample. | |
| 15 | + | |
| 16 | +\paragraph{What the model actually uses.} The most informative ablations are the destructive ones. A model that | |
| 17 | +sees \emph{only} the calendar and missingness flags---no returns, no ranges, no volumes, just the trailing scale | |
| 18 | +$\sigma_t$ in its global token and the time of day---is worse than the full model by only $+0.20$ to $+0.29$\,\%. | |
| 19 | +Returns-only inputs cost $+0.19$ to $+0.28$\,\%; dropping relative volume $+0.08$ to $+0.14$\,\%; shuffling the order | |
| 20 | +of the 390 one-minute bars at training and evaluation time $+0.13$ to $+0.21$\,\%. In other words, of the | |
| 21 | +$\approx 4.3$\,\% improvement over the random walk at sixty minutes, roughly nine tenths come from the trailing | |
| 22 | +volatility level and the intraday seasonal, which every baseline also has, and at most three tenths of a percent | |
| 23 | +from any minute-level \emph{structure}---order, shape of bars, volume---that a sequence model can extract. The | |
| 24 | +falsification test passes in the sense intended: shuffling does hurt, so the model reads order; it just does not | |
| 25 | +have much to read. | |
| 26 | + | |
| 27 | +\paragraph{Fusion, head, regime (H3), identity.} Cross-attention fusion of separate per-scale encoders is slightly | |
| 28 | +worse than the shared backbone ($+0.05$\,\%). The Gaussian head is \IfFileExists{tables/ablations_gaussian_note.tex}{\input{tables/ablations_gaussian_note}}{worse than the Student-$t$ head (see Table~\ref{tab:ablations_crps_scaled})}. | |
| 29 | +Removing the regime embedding changes nothing ($+0.02$ to $+0.03$\,\%, Holm $p>0.3$ at 30 and 60 minutes), and | |
| 30 | +coverage on stress days is identical with and without it (0.57/0.85/0.97 at $H=60$): Hypothesis~\ref{h3} is | |
| 31 | +rejected---the global token already carries the regime statistics, and conditioning the decoder on them again | |
| 32 | +adds nothing. A learned eight-code regime codebook improves CRPS by $0.03$--$0.15$\,\% and lowers central coverage | |
| 33 | +toward nominal (0.56 at 50\,\%), the only architectural change with a consistent, if small, benefit. A ticker-identity | |
| 34 | +embedding hurts ($+0.05$ to $+0.31$\,\%): instrument identity over-fits at this scale, which is also why the core model | |
| 35 | +has none. | |
| 36 | + | |
| 37 | +\paragraph{Joint paths (H4).} The copula head trained on the probability-integral transforms of the Stage-A | |
| 38 | +marginals converges to a copula log-likelihood of $-2.5\times10^{-5}$ per dimension, i.e.\ to independence, and | |
| 39 | +its loadings stay near zero. Correlated sampling changes the energy score by $-0.003$\,\%, the variogram score by | |
| 40 | +$-0.002$\,\%, the CRPS of maximum drawdown by $-0.01$\,\% and of realised variance by $+0.10$\,\%, all with intervals | |
| 41 | +containing zero (Table~\ref{tab:path_scores}); the CRPS of the cumulative return is $+0.08$\,\% worse at sixty | |
| 42 | +minutes. Hypothesis~\ref{h4} is rejected: once the marginals are conditioned on the recent history, the next sixty | |
| 43 | +minute returns are, to the resolution of these scores, conditionally independent, and a dependence-aware decoder | |
| 44 | +has nothing to model. We did not pursue diffusion decoders. | |
| 45 | + | |
| 46 | +\begin{figure}[htbp]\centering | |
| 47 | +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig_ablations_forest.pdf} | |
| 48 | +\caption{Ablations at the Small scale (4 000 steps each): relative CRPS change at $H=60$ versus the random walk, | |
| 49 | +with 95\,\% day-cluster bootstrap intervals; the equal-budget reference and its two extra seeds are included.} | |
| 50 | +\label{fig:ablations_forest} | |
| 51 | +\end{figure} | |
| 52 | + | |
| 53 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 54 | +\caption{Joint paths versus independent sampling of the same Student-$t$ marginals (MRPT-S + copula, 2024 development test, \num{986468} origins, 60-minute paths, 200 draws; day-cluster bootstrap 95\,\% intervals of the difference).} | |
| 55 | +\label{tab:path_scores} | |
| 56 | +\begin{tabular}{lccc} | |
| 57 | +\toprule | |
| 58 | +Score & Joint (copula) & Independent & Joint $-$ independent \\ | |
| 59 | +\midrule | |
| 60 | +Energy score & 3.490e-3 & 3.490e-3 & $-9.2\times10^{-8}$ [$-2.3\times10^{-7}$, $+5.0\times10^{-8}$] \\ | |
| 61 | +Variogram score ($p=0.5$) & 1.5113e-4 & 1.5114e-4 & $-3.8\times10^{-9}$ [$-1.0\times10^{-8}$, $+2.2\times10^{-9}$] \\ | |
| 62 | +CRPS, maximum drawdown & 1.4632e-3 & 1.4633e-3 & $-1.8\times10^{-7}$ [$-6.2\times10^{-7}$, $+2.8\times10^{-7}$] \\ | |
| 63 | +CRPS, realised variance & 1.1881e-5 & 1.1869e-5 & $+1.2\times10^{-8}$ [$-2.8\times10^{-9}$, $+3.0\times10^{-8}$] \\ | |
| 64 | +\bottomrule | |
| 65 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 66 | +\end{table} | |
modified
paper/sections/abstract.tex
+17 −1
@@ -1 +1,17 @@ | ||
| 1 | − | |
| 1 | +We ask whether a compact, transferable, multi-resolution model can learn minute-level structure that improves | |
| 2 | +calibrated probabilistic forecasts of the next 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes of U.S. equity and ETF returns. We build a | |
| 3 | +Multi-Resolution Patch Transformer that reads the last 390 one-minute bars together with five days of 5-minute and | |
| 4 | +twenty days of 30-minute past-only aggregates, emits Student-$t$ marginals for each of the next sixty minutes and, | |
| 5 | +in a second stage, a low-rank Gaussian copula over them. The model is trained and evaluated on \num{234} million | |
| 6 | +one-minute bars of 300 instruments (2018--2025) from a private FirstRate Data lakehouse, selected point-in-time and | |
| 7 | +audited for timestamp, session and corporate-action conventions, against ten baselines sharing the same | |
| 8 | +information set, with CRPS, interval and calibration scores, trading-day cluster inference and overlap-aware | |
| 9 | +Diebold--Mariano tests on about one million evaluation origins per year, sixty held-out instruments and an untouched | |
| 10 | +final year. Every model beats a trailing-scale random walk by 3.5--4.9\,\% of CRPS; the gain is a volatility gain | |
| 11 | +with no directional or economic content. Sequence models lead at five minutes; a HAR-type variance regression with | |
| 12 | +a kurtosis-matched Student-$t$ leads and is better calibrated from fifteen minutes on. The multi-resolution context | |
| 13 | +adds at most 0.1\,\% in sample and nothing out of sample, model size (3.5 vs 20.7 million parameters) does not | |
| 14 | +matter, regime conditioning and coherent path sampling add nothing because future minute returns are conditionally | |
| 15 | +independent given the recent history, and pooled training transfers to unseen instruments without penalty. A model | |
| 16 | +that reads only the trailing volatility and the clock recovers nine tenths of the full model's skill. We release | |
| 17 | +the code, the protocol, synthetic fixtures and these null results. | |
modified
paper/sections/conclusion.tex
+25 −1
@@ -1 +1,25 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% conclusion — written in P8 | |
| 1 | +\section{Conclusion} | |
| 2 | +\label{sec:conclusion} | |
| 3 | + | |
| 4 | +We asked whether a compact, transferable, multi-resolution Transformer can learn minute-level structure that | |
| 5 | +improves calibrated forecasts of the next 5 to 60 minutes, and we tested the question against matched baselines, | |
| 6 | +with proper scoring rules, on \num{234} million one-minute bars of 300 U.S. stocks and ETFs, with sixty unseen | |
| 7 | +instruments and an untouched year. The answers are precise. Minute-level history improves distributional forecasts | |
| 8 | +over a trailing-scale random walk by about four percent of CRPS at every horizon, for every model, and the | |
| 9 | +improvement is a volatility improvement: no model has directional skill or economic content after costs. The | |
| 10 | +sequence models win at five minutes; a heterogeneous autoregression of realised variance with a Student-$t$ | |
| 11 | +matched to residual kurtosis wins, and is better calibrated, from fifteen minutes on. The multi-resolution context | |
| 12 | +that defines the architecture adds at most a tenth of a percent in sample and nothing out of sample; model size does | |
| 13 | +not matter between 3.5 and 20.7 million parameters; regime conditioning adds nothing; coherent paths add nothing | |
| 14 | +because the next hour's minute returns are conditionally independent given the recent history. Pooled training | |
| 15 | +transfers to unseen instruments without penalty. And a model that reads only the trailing volatility and the clock | |
| 16 | +recovers nine tenths of what the full model knows. | |
| 17 | + | |
| 18 | +The central empirical statement of this paper is therefore not that a Transformer predicts financial markets. It is | |
| 19 | +that, for liquid U.S. instruments at the one-minute scale and with bars as the only input, the universal intraday | |
| 20 | +representation worth learning is small: a scale, a clock, a heavy tail, and a few tenths of a percent of residual | |
| 21 | +structure that sequence models and variance regressions extract in different proportions at different horizons. | |
| 22 | +Two directions follow from the limitations rather than from the results: order-book or quote data, which the | |
| 23 | +literature suggests carry the microstructure signal that bars lack, and the delisted instruments that this | |
| 24 | +universe could not include. The package, the protocol and the null results are released so that both can be | |
| 25 | +tested the same way. | |
modified
paper/sections/introduction.tex
+55 −1
@@ -1 +1,55 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% introduction — written in P8 | |
| 1 | +\section{Introduction} | |
| 2 | +\label{sec:introduction} | |
| 3 | + | |
| 4 | +Every minute of a U.S. trading day leaves behind one bar---open, high, low, close, volume---for each of several | |
| 5 | +thousand instruments. Foundation models for time series promise to learn ``universal'' representations from such | |
| 6 | +streams and to forecast any series zero-shot \citep{ansari2024chronos, das2024timesfm}, and a growing literature | |
| 7 | +applies deep sequence models to intraday prices \citep{sirignano2019universal, zhang2019deeplob, kolm2023deep}. | |
| 8 | +Whether a compact model that reads several resolutions of minute-level history improves \emph{calibrated} | |
| 9 | +forecasts of the next hour, relative to the simplest volatility models an econometrician would write down, is | |
| 10 | +however an empirical question that is rarely posed with matched information sets, proper scoring rules and | |
| 11 | +dependence-aware inference. This paper poses it narrowly and answers it on data. | |
| 12 | + | |
| 13 | +We build CHRONOS-X, a research package around a Multi-Resolution Patch Transformer (\MRPT{}). At a decision time | |
| 14 | +inside the regular session the model reads the last 390 completed one-minute bars, the last five days of completed | |
| 15 | +5-minute aggregates and the last twenty days of 30-minute aggregates, each tokenised in patches with gated feature | |
| 16 | +projections, resolution and temporal-gap embeddings; a shared pre-norm Transformer encoder and a direct decoder | |
| 17 | +with sixty future-calendar queries emit a Student-$t$ marginal for each of the next sixty minute returns, and a | |
| 18 | +second-stage low-rank Gaussian copula turns the marginals into coherent sample paths. All inputs are strictly | |
| 19 | +causal, scale-free (divided by a trailing volatility computed at the origin) and masked where the source has no | |
| 20 | +bar; the model carries no ticker identity. Five hypotheses were written before any tuning: multi-resolution history | |
| 21 | +helps at equal parameters (H1), pooled training transfers to unseen instruments (H2), history-only regime | |
| 22 | +conditioning improves calibration under stress (H3), coherent paths beat independent marginals on path scores | |
| 23 | +(H4), and---exploratory---the forecasts carry economic content after costs (H5). | |
| 24 | + | |
| 25 | +The data are 300 U.S. stocks and ETFs selected point-in-time at the end of 2017, stratified by asset class, dollar | |
| 26 | +volume, volatility and sector, with sixty instruments held out entirely; \num{234} million one-minute bars from a | |
| 27 | +private FirstRate Data lakehouse (FinData~OS) over 2018--2025, audited for timestamp conventions, session | |
| 28 | +boundaries, early closes, daylight-saving time, missing minutes, splits and dividends. Training uses 2018--2022, | |
| 29 | +validation 2023, the development test 2024 and an untouched final period 2025; evaluation uses \num{986468} | |
| 30 | +origins in 2024 alone. Baselines share the information set exactly: random walk, seasonal volatility, EWMA, | |
| 31 | +HAR-RV at the minute scale, GARCH(1,1)-$t$, ridge, elastic net, LightGBM, an MLP and a TCN with the same Student-$t$ | |
| 32 | +head, and the one-minute-only \MRPT{} as the equal-parameter patch-Transformer control. Scores are the CRPS, the | |
| 33 | +weighted interval score, quantile losses, coverage, PIT diagnostics, QLIKE, tail Brier scores and, for paths, | |
| 34 | +energy and variogram scores; inference clusters by trading day and uses overlap-aware HAC Diebold--Mariano | |
| 35 | +statistics with multiple-testing control, because a million overlapping windows are not a million observations. | |
| 36 | + | |
| 37 | +The answer is precise and mostly negative for the architecture, and informative about the data. Every model beats | |
| 38 | +the random walk by 3.5--4.9\,\% in CRPS at every horizon: the minute stream carries real information about the | |
| 39 | +dispersion of the next hour, and none about its direction (directional accuracy 0.50, median magnitudes below one | |
| 40 | +basis point, no economic content after costs; H5 rejected). The sequence models are the best at five minutes; | |
| 41 | +from fifteen minutes on, a heterogeneous autoregression of realised variance with a kurtosis-matched Student-$t$ | |
| 42 | +is both sharper and better calibrated than any neural model, by 0.3--0.7\,\%. The multi-resolution context that | |
| 43 | +defines \MRPT{} improves on the one-minute-only twin by at most a tenth of a percent---statistically detectable on a | |
| 44 | +million origins, economically nil (H1 rejected in substance); a 20.7-million-parameter model does no better than a | |
| 45 | +3.5-million one. The remaining hypotheses are examined in the same spirit in Sections~\ref{sec:results} | |
| 46 | +and~\ref{sec:ablations}: zero-shot transfer to the sixty held-out instruments, regime conditioning on stress days, | |
| 47 | +the copula paths against independent sampling, and the untouched 2025 period. | |
| 48 | + | |
| 49 | +The contribution is therefore a replicable measurement rather than a new state of the art: a documented data | |
| 50 | +pipeline and evaluation protocol for minute-level probabilistic forecasting under a private-use license, a compact | |
| 51 | +model that is competitive without being superior, and a set of null results that a reader can reproduce from the | |
| 52 | +released code and synthetic fixtures. Section~\ref{sec:hypotheses} states the hypotheses, Section~\ref{sec:literature} | |
| 53 | +places them in the literature, Sections~\ref{sec:data}--\ref{sec:design} describe data, model and design, | |
| 54 | +Sections~\ref{sec:results}--\ref{sec:ablations} report the results, and Sections~\ref{sec:limitations}--\ref{sec:conclusion} | |
| 55 | +discuss limitations, reproducibility and what the evidence does and does not say. | |
modified
paper/sections/model.tex
+2 −0
@@ -52,3 +52,5 @@ Trainable parameter counts appear in Table~\ref{tab:benchmark}. Optimisation use | ||
| 52 | 52 | \citep{loshchilov2019adamw} with $\beta=(0.9,0.98)$, linear warm-up and cosine decay to 10\,\% of the peak rate, |
| 53 | 53 | gradient clipping at~1, early stopping on the validation likelihood, fixed seeds and crash-safe checkpoints with |
| 54 | 54 | resume. Mixed precision is not used in this version. |
| 55 | + | |
| 56 | +\input{tables/benchmark} | |
modified
paper/sections/results.tex
+7 −2
@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ TCN and an MLP were within 0.2\,\% of one another (Table~\ref{tab:pilot_crps_sca | ||
| 10 | 10 | \subsection{Development test (2024): all models beat the random walk, by about four percent} |
| 11 | 11 | Table~\ref{tab:main_crps_scaled} reports the scaled CRPS of the cumulative return on the \num{986468} evaluation |
| 12 | 12 | origins of 2024 (240 pooled instruments, 24 origins per session), with trading-day cluster-bootstrap intervals, and |
| 13 | −Table~\ref{tab:main_compare_crps} the relative change against the random walk with its Diebold--Mariano statistic. | |
| 13 | +Table~\ref{tab:main_cmp_crps} the relative change against the random walk with its Diebold--Mariano statistic. | |
| 14 | 14 | Figure~\ref{fig:main_crps} summarises both. Three facts stand out. |
| 15 | 15 | |
| 16 | 16 | First, the random walk with a trailing one-minute scale is beaten by every model at every horizon, by |
@@ -62,8 +62,11 @@ forecast by horizon. Panel B: relative change versus the random walk. Source: \t | ||
| 62 | 62 | \label{fig:main_training} |
| 63 | 63 | \end{figure} |
| 64 | 64 | |
| 65 | +\input{tables/main_crps_scaled} | |
| 66 | +\input{tables/main_compare_crps} | |
| 67 | + | |
| 65 | 68 | \subsection{Calibration} |
| 66 | −Table~\ref{tab:main_calibration} and Figure~\ref{fig:main_calibration} show empirical coverage of the 50/80/95\,\% | |
| 69 | +Table~\ref{tab:main_calib} and Figure~\ref{fig:main_calibration} show empirical coverage of the 50/80/95\,\% | |
| 67 | 70 | central intervals and the PIT Kolmogorov--Smirnov statistic. The random walk is over-dispersed everywhere (50\,\% |
| 68 | 71 | intervals cover \covfiftymainnaiverwHsixzero{}\,\% of outcomes at sixty minutes). The Student-$t$ neural models and |
| 69 | 72 | GARCH/EWMA are nearly nominal at 95\,\% but over-dispersed in the centre (50\,\% coverage 0.55--0.59): their |
@@ -75,6 +78,8 @@ Scores and calibration thus tell one consistent story: at the shortest horizon t | ||
| 75 | 78 | read the very last bars wins; at longer horizons a well-specified heterogeneous variance regression with a |
| 76 | 79 | kurtosis-matched Student-$t$ is both sharper and better calibrated. |
| 77 | 80 | |
| 81 | +\input{tables/main_calibration} | |
| 82 | + | |
| 78 | 83 | \subsection{Subgroups} |
| 79 | 84 | Splitting the MRPT-S versus HAR-RV contrast at sixty minutes by subgroup, HAR-RV's advantage is concentrated in |
| 80 | 85 | low-dollar-volume stocks ($+1.3$\,\%), low-volatility instruments ($+1.0$\,\%), transport and utilities ($+1.9$\,\%), |
added
paper/sections/results_heldout.tex
+30 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ | ||
| 1 | +Hypothesis~\ref{h2} asks whether pooled training transfers. On the sixty instruments never seen in training | |
| 2 | +(\num{250322} origins in 2024, Table~\ref{tab:main_crps_scaled_heldout}), MRPT-S improves on the random walk by | |
| 3 | +\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHfive{}\,\% at five minutes and \pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsnaiverwHsixzero{}\,\% | |
| 4 | +at sixty, against \relmainmrptsmallcrpsHfive{}\,\% and \relmainmrptsmallcrpsHsixzero{}\,\% on the pooled instruments: | |
| 5 | +there is no transfer penalty. Against the baselines fitted on those same held-out instruments' own histories, | |
| 6 | +MRPT-S beats GARCH(1,1)-$t$ by 0.9--1.6\,\%, EWMA by 0.6--1.2\,\%, the TCN and the MLP by 0.1--0.4\,\%, HAR-RV by | |
| 7 | +\pwmainheldoutmrptsmallvsharrvHfive{}\,\% at five minutes, and is statistically tied with HAR-RV, ridge and | |
| 8 | +LightGBM from thirty minutes on (Holm-adjusted $p=1$). The multi-resolution gain over the one-minute-only twin is | |
| 9 | +again a tenth of a percent at most. Transfer therefore holds in the only sense the data support: a pooled model | |
| 10 | +without ticker identity forecasts unseen liquid instruments as well as it forecasts the instruments it was trained | |
| 11 | +on, and as well as---not better than---a heterogeneous variance regression refitted on the new instrument. | |
| 12 | + | |
| 13 | +The untouched 2025 period (Table~\ref{tab:final_crps_scaled}; \num{1008425} pooled origins and \num{254334} | |
| 14 | +held-out origins, models and baselines frozen from the main study) repeats the 2024 picture almost line by line. | |
| 15 | +All models beat the random walk by 3.8--4.4\,\%; the neural models lead at five minutes | |
| 16 | +(\crpsfinalmrptsmallHfive{} against \crpsfinalharrvHfive{} for HAR-RV, \pwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHfive{}\,\%); | |
| 17 | +HAR-RV, ridge and LightGBM lead from fifteen minutes on (\crpsfinalharrvHsixzero{} against | |
| 18 | +\crpsfinalmrptsmallHsixzero{}, \pwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHsixzero{}\,\%, $t=\tpwfinalmrptsmallvsharrvHsixzero{}$). The | |
| 19 | +multi-resolution effect vanishes entirely out of sample: MRPT-S versus its one-minute-only twin is | |
| 20 | +\pwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHfive{}\,\% at five minutes and \pwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHsixzero{}\,\% | |
| 21 | +at sixty minutes (Holm $p=\ppwfinalmrptsmallvsmrptsmallonemonlyHsixzero{}$), and on the held-out instruments in 2025 | |
| 22 | +every one of the four contrasts has $p=1$. Base and Small remain indistinguishable. One nuance appears on 2025 | |
| 23 | +stress days (top decile of cross-sectional volatility, \num{101561} origins): HAR-RV's 50/80/95\,\% intervals cover | |
| 24 | +46/77/95\,\% of outcomes while MRPT-S covers 55/84/95\,\%; the regression's variance forecasts lag on the days | |
| 25 | +when volatility jumps, and the sequence model's wider body is, on those days, closer to the truth at 80\,\%, with the | |
| 26 | +same CRPS (0.4559 versus 0.4557 scaled). | |
| 27 | + | |
| 28 | +\input{tables/main_crps_scaled_heldout} | |
| 29 | +\input{tables/final_crps_scaled} | |
| 30 | +\input{tables/final_calibration} | |
added
paper/tables/ablations_calibration.tex
+32 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Ablations: empirical 50/80/95\% coverage and PIT KS statistic} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:ablations_calib} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccccccccccccccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=5$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=15$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=30$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=60$} \\ | |
| 8 | + & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS \\ | |
| 9 | +\midrule | |
| 10 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.65 & 0.88 & 0.97 & 0.078 & 0.66 & 0.89 & 0.97 & 0.079 & 0.67 & 0.90 & 0.97 & 0.083 & 0.68 & 0.91 & 0.98 & 0.089 \\ | |
| 11 | +Seasonal volatility & 0.56 & 0.82 & 0.94 & 0.031 & 0.56 & 0.83 & 0.94 & 0.031 & 0.56 & 0.83 & 0.95 & 0.033 & 0.57 & 0.83 & 0.95 & 0.034 \\ | |
| 12 | +EWMA-$t$ & 0.54 & 0.83 & 0.97 & 0.023 & 0.54 & 0.84 & 0.97 & 0.024 & 0.55 & 0.85 & 0.97 & 0.028 & 0.56 & 0.86 & 0.97 & 0.034 \\ | |
| 13 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m) & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.030 & 0.57 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.034 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.039 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.041 \\ | |
| 14 | +MRPT-S cross-attention fusion & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.029 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.033 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.038 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.042 \\ | |
| 15 | +MRPT-S Gaussian head & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.995 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.995 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.995 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.995 \\ | |
| 16 | +MRPT-S no regime & 0.54 & 0.83 & 0.95 & 0.027 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.031 & 0.57 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.035 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.039 \\ | |
| 17 | +MRPT-S learned regime & 0.54 & 0.82 & 0.95 & 0.021 & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.95 & 0.029 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.035 & 0.57 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.040 \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S returns only & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.034 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.041 & 0.58 & 0.86 & 0.96 & 0.045 & 0.59 & 0.86 & 0.96 & 0.049 \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S time only & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.034 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.040 & 0.58 & 0.86 & 0.96 & 0.045 & 0.59 & 0.86 & 0.96 & 0.049 \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S OHLCV (no rel. volume) & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.031 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.036 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.041 & 0.58 & 0.86 & 0.96 & 0.044 \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-S shuffled minutes & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.031 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.037 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.042 & 0.58 & 0.86 & 0.96 & 0.046 \\ | |
| 22 | +MRPT-S + ticker id & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.029 & 0.57 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.034 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.039 & 0.59 & 0.86 & 0.96 & 0.044 \\ | |
| 23 | +MRPT-S + copula (joint sampling) & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.030 & 0.57 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.036 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.041 & 0.58 & 0.86 & 0.96 & 0.045 \\ | |
| 24 | +MRPT-S reference (4k steps) & 0.54 & 0.83 & 0.95 & 0.027 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.032 & 0.57 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.037 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.042 \\ | |
| 25 | +MRPT-S 1m only (4k) & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.030 & 0.57 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.035 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.039 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.043 \\ | |
| 26 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 2 & 0.54 & 0.82 & 0.95 & 0.029 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.034 & 0.57 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.041 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.048 \\ | |
| 27 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 3 & 0.54 & 0.82 & 0.95 & 0.020 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.037 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.045 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.056 \\ | |
| 28 | +MRPT-S + copula, independent sampling & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.030 & 0.57 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.036 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.040 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.044 \\ | |
| 29 | +\bottomrule | |
| 30 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 31 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 32 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/ablations_compare_crps.tex
+31 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Ablations: CRPS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:ablations_cmp_crps} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Seasonal volatility & -2.89\% (-48.8) & -3.09\% (-49.9) & -3.22\% (-39.3) & -3.44\% (-30.7) \\ | |
| 10 | +EWMA-$t$ & -3.65\% (-57.2) & -3.69\% (-53.4) & -3.60\% (-37.3) & -3.47\% (-25.5) \\ | |
| 11 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m) & -4.00\% (-65.8) & -4.01\% (-63.8) & -4.05\% (-48.4) & -4.24\% (-38.2) \\ | |
| 12 | +MRPT-S cross-attention fusion & -4.05\% (-66.0) & -4.08\% (-64.3) & -4.11\% (-48.7) & -4.29\% (-38.1) \\ | |
| 13 | +MRPT-S Gaussian head & +nan\% (nan) & +nan\% (nan) & +nan\% (nan) & +nan\% (nan) \\ | |
| 14 | +MRPT-S no regime & -4.07\% (-65.8) & -4.10\% (-63.9) & -4.13\% (-48.9) & -4.31\% (-38.9) \\ | |
| 15 | +MRPT-S learned regime & -4.12\% (-68.5) & -4.20\% (-67.1) & -4.26\% (-51.4) & -4.49\% (-40.0) \\ | |
| 16 | +MRPT-S returns only & -3.92\% (-68.7) & -3.91\% (-66.5) & -3.93\% (-50.6) & -4.08\% (-39.3) \\ | |
| 17 | +MRPT-S time only & -3.90\% (-68.7) & -3.90\% (-66.4) & -3.91\% (-50.5) & -4.07\% (-39.2) \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S OHLCV (no rel. volume) & -4.02\% (-66.2) & -4.03\% (-64.0) & -4.04\% (-48.4) & -4.21\% (-37.9) \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S shuffled minutes & -3.97\% (-65.4) & -3.99\% (-63.3) & -4.00\% (-47.8) & -4.14\% (-37.0) \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S + ticker id & -4.05\% (-69.4) & -3.99\% (-66.7) & -3.96\% (-50.4) & -4.04\% (-39.0) \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-S + copula (joint sampling) & -4.04\% (-66.9) & -4.03\% (-64.5) & -4.02\% (-48.2) & -4.16\% (-37.3) \\ | |
| 22 | +MRPT-S reference (4k steps) & -4.10\% (-65.9) & -4.12\% (-63.9) & -4.15\% (-48.4) & -4.34\% (-37.7) \\ | |
| 23 | +MRPT-S 1m only (4k) & -3.98\% (-66.3) & -3.98\% (-63.9) & -4.01\% (-48.9) & -4.19\% (-38.4) \\ | |
| 24 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 2 & -4.10\% (-69.0) & -4.15\% (-67.5) & -4.17\% (-50.5) & -4.30\% (-37.5) \\ | |
| 25 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 3 & -4.12\% (-69.8) & -4.12\% (-66.5) & -4.12\% (-49.5) & -4.19\% (-35.8) \\ | |
| 26 | +MRPT-S + copula, independent sampling & -4.02\% (-66.6) & -4.04\% (-64.7) & -4.05\% (-48.9) & -4.24\% (-38.1) \\ | |
| 27 | +\bottomrule | |
| 28 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 29 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 30 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean CRPS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} | |
| 31 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/ablations_compare_qlike.tex
+31 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Ablations: QLIKE relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:ablations_cmp_qlike} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Seasonal volatility & -8472593190631.71\% (-26.5) & -8305269577503.39\% (-23.8) & -7325382995932.99\% (-14.1) & -6019653909459.67\% (-7.4) \\ | |
| 10 | +EWMA-$t$ & -12797135612615.71\% (-41.9) & -10996225269347.05\% (-30.9) & -8956891977333.71\% (-18.6) & -6156613654049.44\% (-9.7) \\ | |
| 11 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m) & -16784744013233.53\% (-59.9) & -15622125901051.64\% (-46.0) & -14624940309040.50\% (-34.1) & -13851597366601.78\% (-26.2) \\ | |
| 12 | +MRPT-S cross-attention fusion & -16477620786066.72\% (-56.7) & -15395434686456.88\% (-42.1) & -14397167048267.78\% (-31.5) & -13604618987866.28\% (-24.5) \\ | |
| 13 | +MRPT-S Gaussian head & +nan\% (nan) & +nan\% (nan) & +nan\% (nan) & +nan\% (nan) \\ | |
| 14 | +MRPT-S no regime & -16629184340488.87\% (-56.0) & -15488419278646.12\% (-40.1) & -14484665919159.43\% (-30.4) & -13734597152600.11\% (-24.6) \\ | |
| 15 | +MRPT-S learned regime & -15982022088717.06\% (-54.4) & -14939742152795.70\% (-35.5) & -13982332706927.23\% (-26.5) & -13221064495583.95\% (-20.5) \\ | |
| 16 | +MRPT-S returns only & -15515037879753.99\% (-54.3) & -14390965004586.04\% (-43.5) & -13413503383533.83\% (-32.7) & -12530275872494.17\% (-25.1) \\ | |
| 17 | +MRPT-S time only & -15468805633803.32\% (-55.0) & -14353894638305.93\% (-43.5) & -13381301995988.36\% (-32.6) & -12502617002976.35\% (-24.8) \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S OHLCV (no rel. volume) & -16770234070599.82\% (-59.8) & -15523510736175.88\% (-42.6) & -14480669945622.36\% (-31.7) & -13679772431460.47\% (-25.4) \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S shuffled minutes & -16219489645759.21\% (-54.7) & -15162605435693.42\% (-41.3) & -14211178831079.84\% (-31.4) & -13447203006371.54\% (-25.0) \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S + ticker id & -16849595421583.20\% (-60.8) & -15626699642085.73\% (-44.8) & -14612058375530.91\% (-34.3) & -13771726203549.97\% (-28.1) \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-S + copula (joint sampling) & -16948981438808.30\% (-59.2) & -15712124967684.59\% (-43.8) & -14675119287554.53\% (-33.0) & -13887273577946.58\% (-26.8) \\ | |
| 22 | +MRPT-S reference (4k steps) & -16657958587227.36\% (-55.5) & -15462895213783.44\% (-39.4) & -14430786147004.57\% (-29.8) & -13706732055369.20\% (-24.3) \\ | |
| 23 | +MRPT-S 1m only (4k) & -16682128295657.17\% (-59.4) & -15504495830411.61\% (-45.7) & -14458082208296.45\% (-33.6) & -13629863580734.50\% (-26.1) \\ | |
| 24 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 2 & -16497879899613.40\% (-57.8) & -15476396745890.30\% (-42.5) & -14526322790109.15\% (-32.3) & -13798126855747.98\% (-25.9) \\ | |
| 25 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 3 & -16655899365263.51\% (-58.9) & -15561892972445.38\% (-39.5) & -14569260518274.63\% (-29.8) & -13809809983706.30\% (-24.0) \\ | |
| 26 | +MRPT-S + copula, independent sampling & -16951548536150.86\% (-59.2) & -15690158350405.80\% (-43.2) & -14667427641248.20\% (-33.0) & -13884192245774.20\% (-26.8) \\ | |
| 27 | +\bottomrule | |
| 28 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 29 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 30 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean QLIKE versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} | |
| 31 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/ablations_compare_wis.tex
+31 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Ablations: WIS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:ablations_cmp_wis} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Seasonal volatility & -3.00\% (-46.4) & -3.20\% (-47.8) & -3.33\% (-37.8) & -3.54\% (-29.1) \\ | |
| 10 | +EWMA-$t$ & -3.75\% (-54.5) & -3.75\% (-50.4) & -3.60\% (-34.8) & -3.40\% (-23.3) \\ | |
| 11 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m) & -4.23\% (-64.8) & -4.24\% (-63.1) & -4.26\% (-47.9) & -4.45\% (-37.3) \\ | |
| 12 | +MRPT-S cross-attention fusion & -4.28\% (-65.0) & -4.31\% (-63.5) & -4.32\% (-48.1) & -4.50\% (-37.1) \\ | |
| 13 | +MRPT-S Gaussian head & +nan\% (nan) & +nan\% (nan) & +nan\% (nan) & +nan\% (nan) \\ | |
| 14 | +MRPT-S no regime & -4.31\% (-64.5) & -4.33\% (-62.9) & -4.35\% (-48.2) & -4.52\% (-37.9) \\ | |
| 15 | +MRPT-S learned regime & -4.34\% (-67.6) & -4.42\% (-66.3) & -4.47\% (-50.6) & -4.69\% (-38.8) \\ | |
| 16 | +MRPT-S returns only & -4.14\% (-67.9) & -4.14\% (-66.1) & -4.14\% (-50.3) & -4.28\% (-38.8) \\ | |
| 17 | +MRPT-S time only & -4.13\% (-68.0) & -4.12\% (-66.0) & -4.12\% (-50.2) & -4.26\% (-38.6) \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S OHLCV (no rel. volume) & -4.26\% (-65.2) & -4.26\% (-63.3) & -4.26\% (-47.9) & -4.42\% (-37.0) \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S shuffled minutes & -4.20\% (-64.3) & -4.22\% (-62.6) & -4.21\% (-47.2) & -4.34\% (-36.1) \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S + ticker id & -4.29\% (-68.3) & -4.22\% (-65.9) & -4.17\% (-50.0) & -4.25\% (-38.4) \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-S + copula (joint sampling) & -4.28\% (-65.8) & -4.27\% (-63.8) & -4.24\% (-47.8) & -4.37\% (-36.5) \\ | |
| 22 | +MRPT-S reference (4k steps) & -4.33\% (-64.7) & -4.35\% (-62.9) & -4.37\% (-47.6) & -4.56\% (-36.7) \\ | |
| 23 | +MRPT-S 1m only (4k) & -4.21\% (-65.2) & -4.21\% (-63.2) & -4.23\% (-48.3) & -4.40\% (-37.6) \\ | |
| 24 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 2 & -4.32\% (-68.4) & -4.38\% (-67.0) & -4.39\% (-50.1) & -4.51\% (-36.9) \\ | |
| 25 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 3 & -4.35\% (-68.9) & -4.35\% (-65.8) & -4.34\% (-49.1) & -4.40\% (-35.3) \\ | |
| 26 | +MRPT-S + copula, independent sampling & -4.27\% (-65.6) & -4.28\% (-64.0) & -4.27\% (-48.3) & -4.45\% (-37.3) \\ | |
| 27 | +\bottomrule | |
| 28 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 29 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 30 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean WIS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} | |
| 31 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/ablations_crps_scaled.tex
+32 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Ablations: mean scaled CRPS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:ablations_crps_scaled} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.4699 {\scriptsize[0.4648, 0.4754]} & 0.4575 {\scriptsize[0.4515, 0.4639]} & 0.4469 {\scriptsize[0.4412, 0.4538]} & 0.4347 {\scriptsize[0.4271, 0.4441]} \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & 0.4582 {\scriptsize[0.4527, 0.4641]} & 0.4453 {\scriptsize[0.4390, 0.4519]} & 0.4347 {\scriptsize[0.4285, 0.4418]} & 0.4221 {\scriptsize[0.4139, 0.4320]} \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & 0.4547 {\scriptsize[0.4492, 0.4606]} & 0.4425 {\scriptsize[0.4363, 0.4491]} & 0.4326 {\scriptsize[0.4264, 0.4396]} & 0.4214 {\scriptsize[0.4133, 0.4314]} \\ | |
| 12 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m) & 0.4537 {\scriptsize[0.4482, 0.4596]} & 0.4418 {\scriptsize[0.4355, 0.4483]} & 0.4316 {\scriptsize[0.4253, 0.4384]} & 0.4191 {\scriptsize[0.4110, 0.4289]} \\ | |
| 13 | +MRPT-S cross-attention fusion & 0.4535 {\scriptsize[0.4480, 0.4594]} & 0.4416 {\scriptsize[0.4353, 0.4481]} & 0.4313 {\scriptsize[0.4251, 0.4382]} & 0.4190 {\scriptsize[0.4109, 0.4288]} \\ | |
| 14 | +MRPT-S Gaussian head & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 15 | +MRPT-S no regime & 0.4534 {\scriptsize[0.4479, 0.4593]} & 0.4414 {\scriptsize[0.4352, 0.4480]} & 0.4312 {\scriptsize[0.4249, 0.4380]} & 0.4188 {\scriptsize[0.4107, 0.4286]} \\ | |
| 16 | +MRPT-S learned regime & 0.4531 {\scriptsize[0.4476, 0.4591]} & 0.4410 {\scriptsize[0.4347, 0.4476]} & 0.4306 {\scriptsize[0.4243, 0.4376]} & 0.4182 {\scriptsize[0.4100, 0.4281]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MRPT-S returns only & 0.4542 {\scriptsize[0.4487, 0.4601]} & 0.4424 {\scriptsize[0.4362, 0.4489]} & 0.4322 {\scriptsize[0.4260, 0.4392]} & 0.4201 {\scriptsize[0.4119, 0.4299]} \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S time only & 0.4542 {\scriptsize[0.4488, 0.4601]} & 0.4424 {\scriptsize[0.4362, 0.4489]} & 0.4323 {\scriptsize[0.4260, 0.4392]} & 0.4200 {\scriptsize[0.4119, 0.4299]} \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S OHLCV (no rel. volume) & 0.4536 {\scriptsize[0.4481, 0.4595]} & 0.4418 {\scriptsize[0.4355, 0.4482]} & 0.4316 {\scriptsize[0.4253, 0.4385]} & 0.4193 {\scriptsize[0.4113, 0.4291]} \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S shuffled minutes & 0.4538 {\scriptsize[0.4483, 0.4598]} & 0.4420 {\scriptsize[0.4357, 0.4484]} & 0.4318 {\scriptsize[0.4255, 0.4388]} & 0.4196 {\scriptsize[0.4115, 0.4294]} \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-S + ticker id & 0.4534 {\scriptsize[0.4479, 0.4593]} & 0.4418 {\scriptsize[0.4356, 0.4483]} & 0.4318 {\scriptsize[0.4256, 0.4387]} & 0.4199 {\scriptsize[0.4118, 0.4297]} \\ | |
| 22 | +MRPT-S + copula (joint sampling) & 0.4534 {\scriptsize[0.4479, 0.4593]} & 0.4417 {\scriptsize[0.4355, 0.4481]} & 0.4316 {\scriptsize[0.4254, 0.4385]} & 0.4194 {\scriptsize[0.4113, 0.4291]} \\ | |
| 23 | +MRPT-S reference (4k steps) & 0.4533 {\scriptsize[0.4478, 0.4592]} & 0.4415 {\scriptsize[0.4352, 0.4480]} & 0.4312 {\scriptsize[0.4249, 0.4381]} & 0.4188 {\scriptsize[0.4107, 0.4286]} \\ | |
| 24 | +MRPT-S 1m only (4k) & 0.4538 {\scriptsize[0.4483, 0.4597]} & 0.4420 {\scriptsize[0.4358, 0.4485]} & 0.4318 {\scriptsize[0.4256, 0.4386]} & 0.4195 {\scriptsize[0.4113, 0.4293]} \\ | |
| 25 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 2 & 0.4531 {\scriptsize[0.4476, 0.4591]} & 0.4411 {\scriptsize[0.4347, 0.4476]} & 0.4308 {\scriptsize[0.4245, 0.4379]} & 0.4187 {\scriptsize[0.4103, 0.4287]} \\ | |
| 26 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 3 & 0.4531 {\scriptsize[0.4476, 0.4590]} & 0.4413 {\scriptsize[0.4350, 0.4479]} & 0.4312 {\scriptsize[0.4250, 0.4380]} & 0.4194 {\scriptsize[0.4115, 0.4290]} \\ | |
| 27 | +MRPT-S + copula, independent sampling & 0.4535 {\scriptsize[0.4480, 0.4593]} & 0.4416 {\scriptsize[0.4354, 0.4481]} & 0.4314 {\scriptsize[0.4252, 0.4383]} & 0.4191 {\scriptsize[0.4110, 0.4288]} \\ | |
| 28 | +\bottomrule | |
| 29 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 30 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 31 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 32 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/ablations_logscore.tex
+32 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Ablations: mean log score of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:ablations_logscore} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & -5.3800 {\scriptsize[-5.3983, -5.3611]} & -4.8516 {\scriptsize[-4.8704, -4.8300]} & -4.5201 {\scriptsize[-4.5406, -4.4981]} & -4.1899 {\scriptsize[-4.2130, -4.1628]} \\ | |
| 12 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 13 | +MRPT-S cross-attention fusion & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 14 | +MRPT-S Gaussian head & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 15 | +MRPT-S no regime & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 16 | +MRPT-S learned regime & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 17 | +MRPT-S returns only & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S time only & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S OHLCV (no rel. volume) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S shuffled minutes & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-S + ticker id & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 22 | +MRPT-S + copula (joint sampling) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 23 | +MRPT-S reference (4k steps) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 24 | +MRPT-S 1m only (4k) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 25 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 2 & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 26 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 3 & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 27 | +MRPT-S + copula, independent sampling & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 28 | +\bottomrule | |
| 29 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 30 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 31 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 32 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/ablations_qlike.tex
+32 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Ablations: mean QLIKE of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:ablations_qlike} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & -12.3011 {\scriptsize[-12.3357, -12.2647]} & -11.2438 {\scriptsize[-11.2774, -11.2053]} & -10.5819 {\scriptsize[-10.6160, -10.5427]} & -9.9314 {\scriptsize[-9.9665, -9.8897]} \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & -12.3858 {\scriptsize[-12.4188, -12.3489]} & -11.3268 {\scriptsize[-11.3639, -11.2834]} & -10.6551 {\scriptsize[-10.6952, -10.6061]} & -9.9916 {\scriptsize[-10.0361, -9.9323]} \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & -12.4291 {\scriptsize[-12.4603, -12.3927]} & -11.3537 {\scriptsize[-11.3907, -11.3114]} & -10.6715 {\scriptsize[-10.7094, -10.6265]} & -9.9930 {\scriptsize[-10.0339, -9.9413]} \\ | |
| 12 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m) & -12.4690 {\scriptsize[-12.5009, -12.4318]} & -11.4000 {\scriptsize[-11.4375, -11.3573]} & -10.7281 {\scriptsize[-10.7670, -10.6828]} & -10.0699 {\scriptsize[-10.1099, -10.0187]} \\ | |
| 13 | +MRPT-S cross-attention fusion & -12.4659 {\scriptsize[-12.4982, -12.4286]} & -11.3977 {\scriptsize[-11.4361, -11.3541]} & -10.7259 {\scriptsize[-10.7649, -10.6794]} & -10.0674 {\scriptsize[-10.1082, -10.0153]} \\ | |
| 14 | +MRPT-S Gaussian head & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 15 | +MRPT-S no regime & -12.4674 {\scriptsize[-12.4997, -12.4303]} & -11.3986 {\scriptsize[-11.4372, -11.3546]} & -10.7267 {\scriptsize[-10.7657, -10.6799]} & -10.0687 {\scriptsize[-10.1093, -10.0164]} \\ | |
| 16 | +MRPT-S learned regime & -12.4609 {\scriptsize[-12.4934, -12.4238]} & -11.3932 {\scriptsize[-11.4324, -11.3482]} & -10.7217 {\scriptsize[-10.7610, -10.6728]} & -10.0636 {\scriptsize[-10.1055, -10.0090]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MRPT-S returns only & -12.4563 {\scriptsize[-12.4874, -12.4197]} & -11.3877 {\scriptsize[-11.4243, -11.3451]} & -10.7160 {\scriptsize[-10.7545, -10.6711]} & -10.0567 {\scriptsize[-10.0960, -10.0073]} \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S time only & -12.4558 {\scriptsize[-12.4871, -12.4191]} & -11.3873 {\scriptsize[-11.4240, -11.3446]} & -10.7157 {\scriptsize[-10.7541, -10.6708]} & -10.0564 {\scriptsize[-10.0958, -10.0068]} \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S OHLCV (no rel. volume) & -12.4688 {\scriptsize[-12.5004, -12.4318]} & -11.3990 {\scriptsize[-11.4367, -11.3560]} & -10.7267 {\scriptsize[-10.7653, -10.6805]} & -10.0682 {\scriptsize[-10.1083, -10.0168]} \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S shuffled minutes & -12.4633 {\scriptsize[-12.4951, -12.4264]} & -11.3954 {\scriptsize[-11.4331, -11.3525]} & -10.7240 {\scriptsize[-10.7623, -10.6780]} & -10.0659 {\scriptsize[-10.1061, -10.0146]} \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-S + ticker id & -12.4696 {\scriptsize[-12.5013, -12.4327]} & -11.4000 {\scriptsize[-11.4376, -11.3570]} & -10.7280 {\scriptsize[-10.7668, -10.6827]} & -10.0691 {\scriptsize[-10.1084, -10.0190]} \\ | |
| 22 | +MRPT-S + copula (joint sampling) & -12.4706 {\scriptsize[-12.5025, -12.4335]} & -11.4009 {\scriptsize[-11.4384, -11.3578]} & -10.7286 {\scriptsize[-10.7674, -10.6828]} & -10.0703 {\scriptsize[-10.1100, -10.0195]} \\ | |
| 23 | +MRPT-S reference (4k steps) & -12.4677 {\scriptsize[-12.5003, -12.4302]} & -11.3984 {\scriptsize[-11.4370, -11.3540]} & -10.7262 {\scriptsize[-10.7651, -10.6788]} & -10.0685 {\scriptsize[-10.1090, -10.0160]} \\ | |
| 24 | +MRPT-S 1m only (4k) & -12.4679 {\scriptsize[-12.4997, -12.4308]} & -11.3988 {\scriptsize[-11.4364, -11.3562]} & -10.7265 {\scriptsize[-10.7655, -10.6812]} & -10.0677 {\scriptsize[-10.1076, -10.0167]} \\ | |
| 25 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 2 & -12.4661 {\scriptsize[-12.4982, -12.4292]} & -11.3985 {\scriptsize[-11.4366, -11.3549]} & -10.7272 {\scriptsize[-10.7660, -10.6811]} & -10.0694 {\scriptsize[-10.1096, -10.0181]} \\ | |
| 26 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 3 & -12.4677 {\scriptsize[-12.5001, -12.4306]} & -11.3994 {\scriptsize[-11.4381, -11.3552]} & -10.7276 {\scriptsize[-10.7667, -10.6801]} & -10.0695 {\scriptsize[-10.1101, -10.0167]} \\ | |
| 27 | +MRPT-S + copula, independent sampling & -12.4706 {\scriptsize[-12.5025, -12.4337]} & -11.4007 {\scriptsize[-11.4384, -11.3573]} & -10.7286 {\scriptsize[-10.7674, -10.6827]} & -10.0702 {\scriptsize[-10.1099, -10.0194]} \\ | |
| 28 | +\bottomrule | |
| 29 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 30 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 31 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 32 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/ablations_wis.tex
+32 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Ablations: mean WIS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:ablations_wis} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0013]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0017, 0.0018]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0024]} \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0024]} \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0024]} \\ | |
| 12 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 13 | +MRPT-S cross-attention fusion & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 14 | +MRPT-S Gaussian head & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 15 | +MRPT-S no regime & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 16 | +MRPT-S learned regime & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MRPT-S returns only & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S time only & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S OHLCV (no rel. volume) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S shuffled minutes & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-S + ticker id & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 22 | +MRPT-S + copula (joint sampling) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 23 | +MRPT-S reference (4k steps) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 24 | +MRPT-S 1m only (4k) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 25 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 2 & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 26 | +MRPT-S reference, seed 3 & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 27 | +MRPT-S + copula, independent sampling & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 28 | +\bottomrule | |
| 29 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 30 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 31 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 32 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_calibration.tex
+26 −0
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| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final: empirical 50/80/95\% coverage and PIT KS statistic} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_calib} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccccccccccccccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=5$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=15$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=30$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=60$} \\ | |
| 8 | + & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS \\ | |
| 9 | +\midrule | |
| 10 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.64 & 0.88 & 0.96 & 0.074 & 0.66 & 0.89 & 0.97 & 0.080 & 0.66 & 0.90 & 0.97 & 0.083 & 0.68 & 0.91 & 0.98 & 0.089 \\ | |
| 11 | +Seasonal volatility & 0.56 & 0.82 & 0.94 & 0.032 & 0.56 & 0.83 & 0.95 & 0.034 & 0.56 & 0.83 & 0.95 & 0.035 & 0.57 & 0.83 & 0.95 & 0.037 \\ | |
| 12 | +EWMA-$t$ & 0.53 & 0.83 & 0.97 & 0.021 & 0.54 & 0.84 & 0.97 & 0.025 & 0.55 & 0.85 & 0.97 & 0.029 & 0.56 & 0.86 & 0.97 & 0.035 \\ | |
| 13 | +HAR-RV & 0.60 & 0.89 & 0.99 & 0.055 & 0.50 & 0.81 & 0.96 & 0.008 & 0.48 & 0.80 & 0.96 & 0.013 & 0.49 & 0.80 & 0.96 & 0.010 \\ | |
| 14 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & 0.52 & 0.82 & 0.96 & 0.020 & 0.54 & 0.84 & 0.97 & 0.021 & 0.55 & 0.85 & 0.97 & 0.028 & 0.57 & 0.86 & 0.97 & 0.039 \\ | |
| 15 | +Ridge & 0.37 & 0.67 & 0.90 & 0.076 & 0.47 & 0.77 & 0.95 & 0.018 & 0.48 & 0.78 & 0.95 & 0.018 & 0.49 & 0.79 & 0.96 & 0.013 \\ | |
| 16 | +Elastic net & 0.37 & 0.67 & 0.90 & 0.076 & 0.47 & 0.77 & 0.95 & 0.019 & 0.48 & 0.78 & 0.95 & 0.018 & 0.49 & 0.80 & 0.96 & 0.013 \\ | |
| 17 | +LightGBM & 0.38 & 0.67 & 0.90 & 0.075 & 0.44 & 0.75 & 0.94 & 0.037 & 0.48 & 0.79 & 0.95 & 0.014 & 0.50 & 0.80 & 0.96 & 0.012 \\ | |
| 18 | +MLP (1m) & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.027 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.036 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.041 & 0.58 & 0.86 & 0.96 & 0.044 \\ | |
| 19 | +TCN (1m) & 0.55 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.030 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.039 & 0.58 & 0.86 & 0.96 & 0.042 & 0.59 & 0.86 & 0.96 & 0.047 \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.028 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.035 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.038 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.041 \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.027 & 0.57 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.034 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.037 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.040 \\ | |
| 22 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.028 & 0.57 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.035 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.039 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.041 \\ | |
| 23 | +\bottomrule | |
| 24 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 25 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_calibration_heldout.tex
+26 −0
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| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final (held-out): empirical 50/80/95\% coverage and PIT KS statistic} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_calib_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccccccccccccccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=5$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=15$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=30$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=60$} \\ | |
| 8 | + & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS \\ | |
| 9 | +\midrule | |
| 10 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.64 & 0.88 & 0.96 & 0.072 & 0.65 & 0.89 & 0.97 & 0.077 & 0.65 & 0.89 & 0.97 & 0.080 & 0.67 & 0.90 & 0.97 & 0.085 \\ | |
| 11 | +Seasonal volatility & 0.55 & 0.82 & 0.94 & 0.029 & 0.55 & 0.82 & 0.94 & 0.030 & 0.55 & 0.82 & 0.95 & 0.031 & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.94 & 0.033 \\ | |
| 12 | +EWMA-$t$ & 0.52 & 0.83 & 0.97 & 0.017 & 0.53 & 0.84 & 0.97 & 0.022 & 0.54 & 0.84 & 0.97 & 0.024 & 0.55 & 0.85 & 0.97 & 0.032 \\ | |
| 13 | +HAR-RV & 0.57 & 0.86 & 0.98 & 0.040 & 0.50 & 0.80 & 0.96 & 0.008 & 0.50 & 0.81 & 0.96 & 0.012 & 0.52 & 0.82 & 0.96 & 0.018 \\ | |
| 14 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & 0.52 & 0.82 & 0.96 & 0.016 & 0.53 & 0.83 & 0.97 & 0.020 & 0.54 & 0.84 & 0.97 & 0.026 & 0.57 & 0.86 & 0.97 & 0.038 \\ | |
| 15 | +Ridge & 0.41 & 0.70 & 0.91 & 0.058 & 0.46 & 0.77 & 0.94 & 0.024 & 0.48 & 0.79 & 0.95 & 0.017 & 0.50 & 0.80 & 0.95 & 0.013 \\ | |
| 16 | +Elastic net & 0.41 & 0.70 & 0.91 & 0.058 & 0.46 & 0.77 & 0.95 & 0.024 & 0.48 & 0.79 & 0.95 & 0.017 & 0.50 & 0.81 & 0.95 & 0.013 \\ | |
| 17 | +LightGBM & 0.38 & 0.68 & 0.91 & 0.075 & 0.46 & 0.77 & 0.94 & 0.023 & 0.48 & 0.79 & 0.95 & 0.015 & 0.50 & 0.80 & 0.95 & 0.011 \\ | |
| 18 | +MLP (1m) & 0.54 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.024 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.033 & 0.56 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.036 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.042 \\ | |
| 19 | +TCN (1m) & 0.54 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.027 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.036 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.038 & 0.58 & 0.86 & 0.96 & 0.043 \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.54 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.024 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.031 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.033 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.037 \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.54 & 0.82 & 0.96 & 0.023 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.031 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.033 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.037 \\ | |
| 22 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & 0.54 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.025 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.032 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.034 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.038 \\ | |
| 23 | +\bottomrule | |
| 24 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 25 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_compare_crps.tex
+25 −0
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| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final: CRPS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_cmp_crps} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Seasonal volatility & -2.52\% (-27.7) & -2.85\% (-31.9) & -2.89\% (-26.3) & -3.07\% (-20.0) \\ | |
| 10 | +EWMA-$t$ & -3.51\% (-39.0) & -3.59\% (-35.8) & -3.39\% (-29.7) & -3.14\% (-19.7) \\ | |
| 11 | +HAR-RV & -2.20\% (-27.4) & -4.06\% (-44.9) & -4.11\% (-34.1) & -4.37\% (-24.8) \\ | |
| 12 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -3.38\% (-32.4) & -3.68\% (-29.1) & -3.44\% (-28.9) & -3.09\% (-17.8) \\ | |
| 13 | +Ridge & -2.68\% (-23.5) & -4.10\% (-41.9) & -4.17\% (-34.0) & -4.42\% (-25.4) \\ | |
| 14 | +Elastic net & -2.68\% (-23.5) & -4.10\% (-41.8) & -4.17\% (-34.0) & -4.42\% (-25.4) \\ | |
| 15 | +LightGBM & -2.57\% (-22.2) & -3.87\% (-34.1) & -4.22\% (-34.6) & -4.41\% (-24.9) \\ | |
| 16 | +MLP (1m) & -3.84\% (-52.8) & -3.84\% (-49.8) & -3.81\% (-41.0) & -3.85\% (-29.9) \\ | |
| 17 | +TCN (1m) & -3.89\% (-47.5) & -3.74\% (-46.3) & -3.60\% (-39.0) & -3.55\% (-28.6) \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -3.96\% (-42.3) & -3.89\% (-46.2) & -3.85\% (-39.6) & -3.91\% (-28.7) \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & -3.97\% (-42.4) & -3.91\% (-46.1) & -3.88\% (-39.5) & -3.92\% (-28.5) \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -3.94\% (-42.7) & -3.87\% (-49.2) & -3.84\% (-40.3) & -3.89\% (-30.1) \\ | |
| 21 | +\bottomrule | |
| 22 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 24 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean CRPS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} | |
| 25 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_compare_crps_heldout.tex
+25 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final (held-out): CRPS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_cmp_crps_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Seasonal volatility & -2.47\% (-21.6) & -2.75\% (-24.6) & -2.79\% (-20.7) & -2.96\% (-16.0) \\ | |
| 10 | +EWMA-$t$ & -3.36\% (-30.8) & -3.42\% (-28.7) & -3.17\% (-23.8) & -2.85\% (-15.5) \\ | |
| 11 | +HAR-RV & -2.81\% (-30.2) & -3.75\% (-35.6) & -3.75\% (-28.9) & -3.88\% (-21.1) \\ | |
| 12 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -3.07\% (-24.0) & -3.33\% (-21.9) & -2.99\% (-21.3) & -2.55\% (-12.6) \\ | |
| 13 | +Ridge & -3.07\% (-25.3) & -3.77\% (-32.7) & -3.83\% (-27.5) & -3.99\% (-20.5) \\ | |
| 14 | +Elastic net & -3.07\% (-25.3) & -3.77\% (-32.5) & -3.82\% (-27.4) & -4.00\% (-20.5) \\ | |
| 15 | +LightGBM & -2.24\% (-16.1) & -3.56\% (-21.5) & -3.53\% (-21.1) & -3.67\% (-16.3) \\ | |
| 16 | +MLP (1m) & -3.76\% (-40.0) & -3.74\% (-39.9) & -3.69\% (-32.5) & -3.67\% (-23.8) \\ | |
| 17 | +TCN (1m) & -3.86\% (-37.0) & -3.76\% (-38.6) & -3.65\% (-32.2) & -3.57\% (-23.8) \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -3.95\% (-33.0) & -3.88\% (-38.1) & -3.81\% (-32.2) & -3.81\% (-23.3) \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & -3.94\% (-33.0) & -3.88\% (-38.0) & -3.83\% (-31.9) & -3.81\% (-23.1) \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -3.91\% (-33.1) & -3.84\% (-40.5) & -3.81\% (-33.0) & -3.81\% (-24.4) \\ | |
| 21 | +\bottomrule | |
| 22 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 24 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean CRPS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} | |
| 25 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_compare_qlike.tex
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| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final: QLIKE relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_cmp_qlike} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Seasonal volatility & -6363806176097.87\% (-7.9) & -7197644638305.72\% (-16.3) & -6261095459335.80\% (-8.4) & -4990594413186.81\% (-5.3) \\ | |
| 10 | +EWMA-$t$ & -13401604177657.55\% (-34.5) & -11820625959028.91\% (-37.0) & -9792149701524.73\% (-19.7) & -7096098905937.95\% (-10.4) \\ | |
| 11 | +HAR-RV & +3913236955668.53\% (2.9) & -10997388927703.89\% (-12.4) & -11101382476059.22\% (-16.4) & -11022768398499.26\% (-14.8) \\ | |
| 12 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -6502045053666.21\% (-15.8) & -5672608189934.02\% (-17.9) & -3686696984534.77\% (-5.9) & -662150490172.45\% (-0.8) \\ | |
| 13 | +Ridge & +5421776570677.55\% (4.5) & -12163950482648.31\% (-27.4) & -12503369384123.90\% (-21.0) & -11996364901816.19\% (-15.1) \\ | |
| 14 | +Elastic net & +5473828257824.70\% (4.5) & -12144402667402.54\% (-27.4) & -12486397655586.67\% (-20.8) & -11981337790529.30\% (-15.1) \\ | |
| 15 | +LightGBM & +33452663275996332.00\% (1.6) & -7986186304322.45\% (-5.4) & -11651629022629.18\% (-10.6) & -12817878377422.13\% (-16.0) \\ | |
| 16 | +MLP (1m) & -14720898574375.21\% (-18.4) & -13512237008252.89\% (-17.6) & -12538500544410.84\% (-18.1) & -11631845999717.30\% (-15.2) \\ | |
| 17 | +TCN (1m) & -16919024556944.02\% (-34.2) & -15473009084858.32\% (-48.8) & -14195580190418.18\% (-31.3) & -12904396803622.03\% (-22.0) \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -17440754813666.25\% (-31.0) & -16305890333133.57\% (-47.8) & -15169985549993.04\% (-31.2) & -14264208670641.35\% (-22.8) \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & -17163562658657.87\% (-31.4) & -15931251452952.67\% (-45.8) & -14662674862923.33\% (-27.6) & -13519829970214.44\% (-19.2) \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -17239229400549.80\% (-40.5) & -16046379760611.44\% (-53.4) & -14931279197542.62\% (-36.3) & -13974559954094.02\% (-26.5) \\ | |
| 21 | +\bottomrule | |
| 22 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 24 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean QLIKE versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} | |
| 25 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_compare_qlike_heldout.tex
+25 −0
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| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final (held-out): QLIKE relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_cmp_qlike_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Seasonal volatility & -7881292606331.87\% (-8.1) & -8896570178640.64\% (-17.9) & -7805191930785.72\% (-9.8) & -6357895926512.99\% (-6.1) \\ | |
| 10 | +EWMA-$t$ & -14368387124373.51\% (-32.3) & -12886749273533.74\% (-35.1) & -10692226543788.80\% (-19.3) & -7804644926948.44\% (-10.3) \\ | |
| 11 | +HAR-RV & -11991153797857.57\% (-29.6) & -15408356847389.03\% (-47.2) & -14085402915508.40\% (-25.9) & -12829576065389.08\% (-15.8) \\ | |
| 12 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -9150495905868.49\% (-18.9) & -8241640138160.87\% (-22.8) & -6060670156897.87\% (-9.2) & -2677412926831.07\% (-3.1) \\ | |
| 13 | +Ridge & -1054018044397.35\% (-1.1) & -14400258822980.35\% (-34.5) & -14083112880296.95\% (-22.5) & -13172287575370.57\% (-15.2) \\ | |
| 14 | +Elastic net & -1045208980438.32\% (-1.1) & -14378492224890.53\% (-34.1) & -14070621964178.67\% (-22.3) & -13168125458512.58\% (-15.1) \\ | |
| 15 | +LightGBM & +1438442754994027.25\% (3.0) & -11074436016941.67\% (-4.1) & -14510585977166.56\% (-21.1) & -13818631535817.14\% (-15.8) \\ | |
| 16 | +MLP (1m) & -17448222120920.47\% (-34.2) & -16543617998332.09\% (-47.5) & -15403641955970.65\% (-31.0) & -14313813763982.13\% (-21.4) \\ | |
| 17 | +TCN (1m) & -18443585062096.97\% (-35.2) & -17109454564114.94\% (-47.4) & -15760046569402.44\% (-32.0) & -14452672740764.15\% (-22.8) \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -18624546657634.33\% (-29.4) & -17586756948614.74\% (-43.5) & -16319208002183.26\% (-29.8) & -15332871126334.91\% (-22.1) \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & -18362352193653.54\% (-30.5) & -17231017095898.39\% (-43.5) & -15813797009598.51\% (-27.2) & -14506694663658.71\% (-18.9) \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -18449196322165.06\% (-38.4) & -17319294892507.10\% (-50.0) & -16088668851044.35\% (-35.1) & -14988730328170.58\% (-25.6) \\ | |
| 21 | +\bottomrule | |
| 22 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 24 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean QLIKE versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} | |
| 25 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_compare_wis.tex
+25 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final: WIS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_cmp_wis} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Seasonal volatility & -2.59\% (-25.6) & -2.94\% (-29.5) & -2.98\% (-24.1) & -3.12\% (-17.4) \\ | |
| 10 | +EWMA-$t$ & -3.64\% (-34.6) & -3.70\% (-30.6) & -3.41\% (-27.6) & -3.09\% (-17.5) \\ | |
| 11 | +HAR-RV & -2.07\% (-21.2) & -4.22\% (-42.7) & -4.23\% (-33.1) & -4.45\% (-22.9) \\ | |
| 12 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -3.48\% (-28.9) & -3.79\% (-25.2) & -3.45\% (-26.7) & -3.01\% (-15.7) \\ | |
| 13 | +Ridge & -2.65\% (-21.1) & -4.28\% (-40.2) & -4.31\% (-32.7) & -4.52\% (-23.3) \\ | |
| 14 | +Elastic net & -2.64\% (-21.1) & -4.27\% (-40.0) & -4.31\% (-32.7) & -4.52\% (-23.2) \\ | |
| 15 | +LightGBM & -2.49\% (-19.5) & -4.03\% (-32.1) & -4.38\% (-33.1) & -4.53\% (-22.8) \\ | |
| 16 | +MLP (1m) & -4.08\% (-49.6) & -4.09\% (-46.0) & -4.02\% (-39.4) & -4.03\% (-27.3) \\ | |
| 17 | +TCN (1m) & -4.14\% (-43.1) & -3.99\% (-41.9) & -3.81\% (-37.5) & -3.70\% (-26.2) \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -4.23\% (-38.1) & -4.15\% (-42.8) & -4.07\% (-38.1) & -4.09\% (-26.2) \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & -4.23\% (-38.3) & -4.17\% (-42.6) & -4.10\% (-37.8) & -4.09\% (-25.8) \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -4.20\% (-38.6) & -4.12\% (-46.5) & -4.06\% (-39.2) & -4.07\% (-28.0) \\ | |
| 21 | +\bottomrule | |
| 22 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 24 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean WIS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} | |
| 25 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_compare_wis_heldout.tex
+25 −0
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| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final (held-out): WIS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_cmp_wis_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Seasonal volatility & -2.55\% (-19.8) & -2.85\% (-22.4) & -2.89\% (-18.8) & -3.01\% (-13.9) \\ | |
| 10 | +EWMA-$t$ & -3.51\% (-27.3) & -3.56\% (-24.6) & -3.21\% (-22.0) & -2.80\% (-13.7) \\ | |
| 11 | +HAR-RV & -2.94\% (-25.9) & -3.94\% (-33.7) & -3.90\% (-27.9) & -3.99\% (-19.3) \\ | |
| 12 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -3.19\% (-21.4) & -3.45\% (-18.8) & -3.01\% (-19.6) & -2.47\% (-11.1) \\ | |
| 13 | +Ridge & -3.14\% (-23.4) & -3.95\% (-31.5) & -3.99\% (-26.5) & -4.10\% (-18.7) \\ | |
| 14 | +Elastic net & -3.14\% (-23.3) & -3.95\% (-31.3) & -3.98\% (-26.3) & -4.12\% (-18.8) \\ | |
| 15 | +LightGBM & -2.28\% (-15.3) & -3.77\% (-20.6) & -3.70\% (-20.8) & -3.80\% (-15.0) \\ | |
| 16 | +MLP (1m) & -4.02\% (-37.5) & -4.00\% (-37.0) & -3.91\% (-31.2) & -3.84\% (-21.7) \\ | |
| 17 | +TCN (1m) & -4.16\% (-33.8) & -4.04\% (-35.0) & -3.88\% (-31.1) & -3.75\% (-21.8) \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -4.25\% (-30.1) & -4.16\% (-35.5) & -4.05\% (-31.0) & -3.99\% (-21.2) \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & -4.23\% (-30.0) & -4.16\% (-35.3) & -4.05\% (-30.5) & -3.98\% (-20.7) \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -4.21\% (-30.4) & -4.11\% (-38.4) & -4.04\% (-32.0) & -3.99\% (-22.6) \\ | |
| 21 | +\bottomrule | |
| 22 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 24 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean WIS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} | |
| 25 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_crps_scaled.tex
+26 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final: mean scaled CRPS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_crps_scaled} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.4759 {\scriptsize[0.4683, 0.4828]} & 0.4621 {\scriptsize[0.4543, 0.4697]} & 0.4521 {\scriptsize[0.4439, 0.4602]} & 0.4409 {\scriptsize[0.4316, 0.4512]} \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & 0.4655 {\scriptsize[0.4575, 0.4732]} & 0.4505 {\scriptsize[0.4427, 0.4585]} & 0.4406 {\scriptsize[0.4319, 0.4497]} & 0.4291 {\scriptsize[0.4188, 0.4401]} \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & 0.4609 {\scriptsize[0.4529, 0.4682]} & 0.4470 {\scriptsize[0.4391, 0.4548]} & 0.4380 {\scriptsize[0.4293, 0.4469]} & 0.4278 {\scriptsize[0.4175, 0.4387]} \\ | |
| 12 | +HAR-RV & 0.4674 {\scriptsize[0.4597, 0.4744]} & 0.4450 {\scriptsize[0.4368, 0.4532]} & 0.4352 {\scriptsize[0.4259, 0.4444]} & 0.4232 {\scriptsize[0.4125, 0.4347]} \\ | |
| 13 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & 0.4616 {\scriptsize[0.4537, 0.4690]} & 0.4468 {\scriptsize[0.4388, 0.4547]} & 0.4380 {\scriptsize[0.4292, 0.4468]} & 0.4286 {\scriptsize[0.4183, 0.4397]} \\ | |
| 14 | +Ridge & 0.4663 {\scriptsize[0.4577, 0.4743]} & 0.4449 {\scriptsize[0.4365, 0.4532]} & 0.4350 {\scriptsize[0.4257, 0.4443]} & 0.4232 {\scriptsize[0.4126, 0.4346]} \\ | |
| 15 | +Elastic net & 0.4663 {\scriptsize[0.4577, 0.4743]} & 0.4449 {\scriptsize[0.4366, 0.4532]} & 0.4351 {\scriptsize[0.4258, 0.4443]} & 0.4232 {\scriptsize[0.4126, 0.4346]} \\ | |
| 16 | +LightGBM & 0.4655 {\scriptsize[0.4570, 0.4734]} & 0.4457 {\scriptsize[0.4374, 0.4541]} & 0.4347 {\scriptsize[0.4254, 0.4439]} & 0.4232 {\scriptsize[0.4125, 0.4345]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MLP (1m) & 0.4600 {\scriptsize[0.4519, 0.4672]} & 0.4465 {\scriptsize[0.4385, 0.4545]} & 0.4371 {\scriptsize[0.4282, 0.4458]} & 0.4260 {\scriptsize[0.4158, 0.4369]} \\ | |
| 18 | +TCN (1m) & 0.4600 {\scriptsize[0.4520, 0.4671]} & 0.4471 {\scriptsize[0.4391, 0.4550]} & 0.4379 {\scriptsize[0.4291, 0.4467]} & 0.4271 {\scriptsize[0.4169, 0.4380]} \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.4594 {\scriptsize[0.4514, 0.4666]} & 0.4462 {\scriptsize[0.4382, 0.4540]} & 0.4368 {\scriptsize[0.4278, 0.4456]} & 0.4256 {\scriptsize[0.4154, 0.4366]} \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.4594 {\scriptsize[0.4514, 0.4666]} & 0.4461 {\scriptsize[0.4381, 0.4540]} & 0.4367 {\scriptsize[0.4278, 0.4456]} & 0.4257 {\scriptsize[0.4154, 0.4367]} \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & 0.4595 {\scriptsize[0.4516, 0.4667]} & 0.4462 {\scriptsize[0.4383, 0.4541]} & 0.4368 {\scriptsize[0.4279, 0.4456]} & 0.4257 {\scriptsize[0.4155, 0.4366]} \\ | |
| 22 | +\bottomrule | |
| 23 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 25 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_crps_scaled_heldout.tex
+26 −0
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| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final (held-out instruments): mean scaled CRPS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_crps_scaled_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.4813 {\scriptsize[0.4728, 0.4897]} & 0.4682 {\scriptsize[0.4598, 0.4771]} & 0.4586 {\scriptsize[0.4495, 0.4679]} & 0.4471 {\scriptsize[0.4369, 0.4580]} \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & 0.4705 {\scriptsize[0.4614, 0.4794]} & 0.4563 {\scriptsize[0.4478, 0.4658]} & 0.4468 {\scriptsize[0.4367, 0.4569]} & 0.4351 {\scriptsize[0.4236, 0.4474]} \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & 0.4666 {\scriptsize[0.4576, 0.4754]} & 0.4533 {\scriptsize[0.4447, 0.4626]} & 0.4449 {\scriptsize[0.4351, 0.4551]} & 0.4346 {\scriptsize[0.4235, 0.4465]} \\ | |
| 12 | +HAR-RV & 0.4688 {\scriptsize[0.4600, 0.4774]} & 0.4518 {\scriptsize[0.4428, 0.4614]} & 0.4424 {\scriptsize[0.4323, 0.4529]} & 0.4308 {\scriptsize[0.4192, 0.4432]} \\ | |
| 13 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & 0.4677 {\scriptsize[0.4588, 0.4766]} & 0.4538 {\scriptsize[0.4451, 0.4632]} & 0.4455 {\scriptsize[0.4358, 0.4555]} & 0.4360 {\scriptsize[0.4250, 0.4481]} \\ | |
| 14 | +Ridge & 0.4691 {\scriptsize[0.4594, 0.4786]} & 0.4517 {\scriptsize[0.4426, 0.4614]} & 0.4420 {\scriptsize[0.4318, 0.4526]} & 0.4303 {\scriptsize[0.4187, 0.4428]} \\ | |
| 15 | +Elastic net & 0.4691 {\scriptsize[0.4595, 0.4786]} & 0.4517 {\scriptsize[0.4427, 0.4614]} & 0.4421 {\scriptsize[0.4319, 0.4526]} & 0.4302 {\scriptsize[0.4186, 0.4427]} \\ | |
| 16 | +LightGBM & 0.4722 {\scriptsize[0.4623, 0.4817]} & 0.4521 {\scriptsize[0.4430, 0.4619]} & 0.4428 {\scriptsize[0.4324, 0.4533]} & 0.4311 {\scriptsize[0.4196, 0.4438]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MLP (1m) & 0.4651 {\scriptsize[0.4562, 0.4740]} & 0.4524 {\scriptsize[0.4438, 0.4618]} & 0.4433 {\scriptsize[0.4335, 0.4533]} & 0.4321 {\scriptsize[0.4207, 0.4443]} \\ | |
| 18 | +TCN (1m) & 0.4650 {\scriptsize[0.4562, 0.4738]} & 0.4526 {\scriptsize[0.4441, 0.4619]} & 0.4436 {\scriptsize[0.4340, 0.4536]} & 0.4326 {\scriptsize[0.4213, 0.4447]} \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.4644 {\scriptsize[0.4556, 0.4732]} & 0.4518 {\scriptsize[0.4432, 0.4611]} & 0.4428 {\scriptsize[0.4330, 0.4528]} & 0.4316 {\scriptsize[0.4202, 0.4437]} \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.4644 {\scriptsize[0.4556, 0.4733]} & 0.4518 {\scriptsize[0.4433, 0.4611]} & 0.4428 {\scriptsize[0.4330, 0.4529]} & 0.4317 {\scriptsize[0.4203, 0.4438]} \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & 0.4646 {\scriptsize[0.4558, 0.4735]} & 0.4519 {\scriptsize[0.4434, 0.4613]} & 0.4429 {\scriptsize[0.4331, 0.4529]} & 0.4317 {\scriptsize[0.4203, 0.4438]} \\ | |
| 22 | +\bottomrule | |
| 23 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 25 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_logscore.tex
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| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final: mean log score of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_logscore} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & -5.2674 {\scriptsize[-5.3018, -5.2344]} & -4.7437 {\scriptsize[-4.7787, -4.7097]} & -4.4086 {\scriptsize[-4.4450, -4.3745]} & -4.0758 {\scriptsize[-4.1155, -4.0380]} \\ | |
| 12 | +HAR-RV & -5.2308 {\scriptsize[-5.2641, -5.1994]} & -4.7535 {\scriptsize[-4.7894, -4.7178]} & -4.4224 {\scriptsize[-4.4596, -4.3866]} & -4.0986 {\scriptsize[-4.1401, -4.0587]} \\ | |
| 13 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -5.2642 {\scriptsize[-5.2993, -5.2309]} & -4.7453 {\scriptsize[-4.7801, -4.7115]} & -4.4094 {\scriptsize[-4.4457, -4.3756]} & -4.0726 {\scriptsize[-4.1118, -4.0342]} \\ | |
| 14 | +Ridge & -5.2155 {\scriptsize[-5.2516, -5.1804]} & -4.7554 {\scriptsize[-4.7918, -4.7193]} & -4.4249 {\scriptsize[-4.4622, -4.3886]} & -4.1007 {\scriptsize[-4.1423, -4.0605]} \\ | |
| 15 | +Elastic net & -5.2157 {\scriptsize[-5.2517, -5.1805]} & -4.7553 {\scriptsize[-4.7918, -4.7193]} & -4.4249 {\scriptsize[-4.4622, -4.3886]} & -4.1007 {\scriptsize[-4.1424, -4.0605]} \\ | |
| 16 | +LightGBM & -5.2169 {\scriptsize[-5.2538, -5.1810]} & -4.7478 {\scriptsize[-4.7843, -4.7118]} & -4.4288 {\scriptsize[-4.4661, -4.3934]} & -4.1030 {\scriptsize[-4.1445, -4.0621]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MLP (1m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 18 | +TCN (1m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 22 | +\bottomrule | |
| 23 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 25 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_logscore_heldout.tex
+26 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final (held-out instruments): mean log score of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_logscore_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & -5.3109 {\scriptsize[-5.3479, -5.2737]} & -4.7859 {\scriptsize[-4.8233, -4.7478]} & -4.4492 {\scriptsize[-4.4891, -4.4113]} & -4.1159 {\scriptsize[-4.1590, -4.0730]} \\ | |
| 12 | +HAR-RV & -5.2979 {\scriptsize[-5.3340, -5.2614]} & -4.7952 {\scriptsize[-4.8334, -4.7554]} & -4.4629 {\scriptsize[-4.5033, -4.4233]} & -4.1358 {\scriptsize[-4.1794, -4.0915]} \\ | |
| 13 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -5.3050 {\scriptsize[-5.3426, -5.2677]} & -4.7836 {\scriptsize[-4.8211, -4.7447]} & -4.4460 {\scriptsize[-4.4860, -4.4075]} & -4.1090 {\scriptsize[-4.1519, -4.0660]} \\ | |
| 14 | +Ridge & -5.2852 {\scriptsize[-5.3248, -5.2459]} & -4.7956 {\scriptsize[-4.8350, -4.7551]} & -4.4657 {\scriptsize[-4.5066, -4.4249]} & -4.1400 {\scriptsize[-4.1847, -4.0945]} \\ | |
| 15 | +Elastic net & -5.2854 {\scriptsize[-5.3250, -5.2459]} & -4.7956 {\scriptsize[-4.8350, -4.7552]} & -4.4658 {\scriptsize[-4.5066, -4.4249]} & -4.1401 {\scriptsize[-4.1848, -4.0945]} \\ | |
| 16 | +LightGBM & -5.2592 {\scriptsize[-5.2989, -5.2201]} & -4.7975 {\scriptsize[-4.8368, -4.7572]} & -4.4663 {\scriptsize[-4.5073, -4.4258]} & -4.1396 {\scriptsize[-4.1848, -4.0932]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MLP (1m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 18 | +TCN (1m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 22 | +\bottomrule | |
| 23 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 25 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_qlike.tex
+26 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final: mean QLIKE of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_qlike} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & -12.0721 {\scriptsize[-12.1423, -12.0019]} & -11.0128 {\scriptsize[-11.0775, -10.9462]} & -10.3512 {\scriptsize[-10.4146, -10.2855]} & -9.7001 {\scriptsize[-9.7633, -9.6353]} \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & -12.1357 {\scriptsize[-12.2191, -12.0435]} & -11.0848 {\scriptsize[-11.1592, -11.0114]} & -10.4138 {\scriptsize[-10.4907, -10.3363]} & -9.7500 {\scriptsize[-9.8274, -9.6687]} \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & -12.2061 {\scriptsize[-12.2791, -12.1321]} & -11.1310 {\scriptsize[-11.1968, -11.0666]} & -10.4492 {\scriptsize[-10.5184, -10.3819]} & -9.7710 {\scriptsize[-9.8416, -9.6998]} \\ | |
| 12 | +HAR-RV & -12.0330 {\scriptsize[-12.0960, -11.9604]} & -11.1228 {\scriptsize[-11.1882, -11.0474]} & -10.4622 {\scriptsize[-10.5299, -10.3907]} & -9.8103 {\scriptsize[-9.8828, -9.7359]} \\ | |
| 13 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -12.1371 {\scriptsize[-12.2086, -12.0683]} & -11.0696 {\scriptsize[-11.1337, -11.0053]} & -10.3881 {\scriptsize[-10.4569, -10.3179]} & -9.7067 {\scriptsize[-9.7772, -9.6299]} \\ | |
| 14 | +Ridge & -12.0179 {\scriptsize[-12.0953, -11.9230]} & -11.1345 {\scriptsize[-11.2015, -11.0657]} & -10.4763 {\scriptsize[-10.5456, -10.4054]} & -9.8201 {\scriptsize[-9.8935, -9.7436]} \\ | |
| 15 | +Elastic net & -12.0174 {\scriptsize[-12.0950, -11.9222]} & -11.1343 {\scriptsize[-11.2014, -11.0655]} & -10.4761 {\scriptsize[-10.5455, -10.4053]} & -9.8199 {\scriptsize[-9.8934, -9.7432]} \\ | |
| 16 | +LightGBM & 322.4545 {\scriptsize[31.5701, 790.5122]} & -11.0927 {\scriptsize[-11.1677, -11.0127]} & -10.4677 {\scriptsize[-10.5403, -10.3934]} & -9.8283 {\scriptsize[-9.9018, -9.7505]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MLP (1m) & -12.2193 {\scriptsize[-12.2913, -12.1409]} & -11.1480 {\scriptsize[-11.2171, -11.0748]} & -10.4766 {\scriptsize[-10.5465, -10.4055]} & -9.8164 {\scriptsize[-9.8876, -9.7426]} \\ | |
| 18 | +TCN (1m) & -12.2413 {\scriptsize[-12.3171, -12.1657]} & -11.1676 {\scriptsize[-11.2342, -11.1007]} & -10.4932 {\scriptsize[-10.5623, -10.4257]} & -9.8291 {\scriptsize[-9.9009, -9.7583]} \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -12.2465 {\scriptsize[-12.3233, -12.1702]} & -11.1759 {\scriptsize[-11.2434, -11.1087]} & -10.5029 {\scriptsize[-10.5731, -10.4339]} & -9.8427 {\scriptsize[-9.9153, -9.7696]} \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & -12.2437 {\scriptsize[-12.3205, -12.1674]} & -11.1721 {\scriptsize[-11.2397, -11.1047]} & -10.4979 {\scriptsize[-10.5683, -10.4282]} & -9.8353 {\scriptsize[-9.9076, -9.7599]} \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -12.2445 {\scriptsize[-12.3188, -12.1696]} & -11.1733 {\scriptsize[-11.2399, -11.1065]} & -10.5005 {\scriptsize[-10.5700, -10.4328]} & -9.8398 {\scriptsize[-9.9097, -9.7707]} \\ | |
| 22 | +\bottomrule | |
| 23 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 25 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_qlike_heldout.tex
+26 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final (held-out instruments): mean QLIKE of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_qlike_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & -12.1845 {\scriptsize[-12.2592, -12.1091]} & -11.1268 {\scriptsize[-11.1980, -11.0543]} & -10.4659 {\scriptsize[-10.5362, -10.3930]} & -9.8150 {\scriptsize[-9.8856, -9.7430]} \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & -12.2633 {\scriptsize[-12.3543, -12.1638]} & -11.2157 {\scriptsize[-11.2947, -11.1352]} & -10.5440 {\scriptsize[-10.6249, -10.4610]} & -9.8786 {\scriptsize[-9.9609, -9.7888]} \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & -12.3282 {\scriptsize[-12.4043, -12.2493]} & -11.2556 {\scriptsize[-11.3255, -11.1838]} & -10.5728 {\scriptsize[-10.6450, -10.4986]} & -9.8931 {\scriptsize[-9.9670, -9.8118]} \\ | |
| 12 | +HAR-RV & -12.3044 {\scriptsize[-12.3769, -12.2319]} & -11.2809 {\scriptsize[-11.3520, -11.2075]} & -10.6068 {\scriptsize[-10.6800, -10.5301]} & -9.9433 {\scriptsize[-10.0193, -9.8589]} \\ | |
| 13 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -12.2760 {\scriptsize[-12.3510, -12.2005]} & -11.2092 {\scriptsize[-11.2780, -11.1365]} & -10.5265 {\scriptsize[-10.5990, -10.4502]} & -9.8418 {\scriptsize[-9.9171, -9.7574]} \\ | |
| 14 | +Ridge & -12.1950 {\scriptsize[-12.2735, -12.1029]} & -11.2708 {\scriptsize[-11.3433, -11.1951]} & -10.6067 {\scriptsize[-10.6800, -10.5275]} & -9.9468 {\scriptsize[-10.0234, -9.8609]} \\ | |
| 15 | +Elastic net & -12.1950 {\scriptsize[-12.2734, -12.1025]} & -11.2706 {\scriptsize[-11.3431, -11.1949]} & -10.6066 {\scriptsize[-10.6800, -10.5271]} & -9.9467 {\scriptsize[-10.0234, -9.8608]} \\ | |
| 16 | +LightGBM & 2.1999 {\scriptsize[-7.3370, 14.1130]} & -11.2375 {\scriptsize[-11.3259, -11.1557]} & -10.6110 {\scriptsize[-10.6858, -10.5313]} & -9.9532 {\scriptsize[-10.0292, -9.8658]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MLP (1m) & -12.3590 {\scriptsize[-12.4378, -12.2744]} & -11.2922 {\scriptsize[-11.3632, -11.2181]} & -10.6199 {\scriptsize[-10.6929, -10.5447]} & -9.9582 {\scriptsize[-10.0329, -9.8774]} \\ | |
| 18 | +TCN (1m) & -12.3689 {\scriptsize[-12.4474, -12.2856]} & -11.2979 {\scriptsize[-11.3682, -11.2244]} & -10.6235 {\scriptsize[-10.6955, -10.5492]} & -9.9596 {\scriptsize[-10.0336, -9.8792]} \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -12.3707 {\scriptsize[-12.4504, -12.2852]} & -11.3026 {\scriptsize[-11.3745, -11.2281]} & -10.6291 {\scriptsize[-10.7026, -10.5524]} & -9.9684 {\scriptsize[-10.0435, -9.8865]} \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & -12.3681 {\scriptsize[-12.4479, -12.2825]} & -11.2991 {\scriptsize[-11.3704, -11.2247]} & -10.6240 {\scriptsize[-10.6975, -10.5469]} & -9.9601 {\scriptsize[-10.0354, -9.8758]} \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -12.3690 {\scriptsize[-12.4480, -12.2855]} & -11.3000 {\scriptsize[-11.3715, -11.2264]} & -10.6268 {\scriptsize[-10.6998, -10.5516]} & -9.9649 {\scriptsize[-10.0379, -9.8849]} \\ | |
| 22 | +\bottomrule | |
| 23 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 25 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_wis.tex
+26 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final: mean WIS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_wis} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.0009 {\scriptsize[0.0008, 0.0009]} & 0.0014 {\scriptsize[0.0014, 0.0015]} & 0.0020 {\scriptsize[0.0019, 0.0021]} & 0.0028 {\scriptsize[0.0026, 0.0029]} \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0008, 0.0009]} & 0.0014 {\scriptsize[0.0013, 0.0015]} & 0.0019 {\scriptsize[0.0018, 0.0020]} & 0.0027 {\scriptsize[0.0025, 0.0028]} \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0008, 0.0009]} & 0.0014 {\scriptsize[0.0013, 0.0015]} & 0.0019 {\scriptsize[0.0018, 0.0020]} & 0.0027 {\scriptsize[0.0025, 0.0028]} \\ | |
| 12 | +HAR-RV & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0008, 0.0009]} & 0.0014 {\scriptsize[0.0013, 0.0015]} & 0.0019 {\scriptsize[0.0018, 0.0020]} & 0.0026 {\scriptsize[0.0025, 0.0028]} \\ | |
| 13 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0008, 0.0009]} & 0.0014 {\scriptsize[0.0013, 0.0015]} & 0.0019 {\scriptsize[0.0018, 0.0020]} & 0.0027 {\scriptsize[0.0025, 0.0028]} \\ | |
| 14 | +Ridge & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0008, 0.0009]} & 0.0014 {\scriptsize[0.0013, 0.0015]} & 0.0019 {\scriptsize[0.0018, 0.0020]} & 0.0026 {\scriptsize[0.0025, 0.0028]} \\ | |
| 15 | +Elastic net & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0008, 0.0009]} & 0.0014 {\scriptsize[0.0013, 0.0015]} & 0.0019 {\scriptsize[0.0018, 0.0020]} & 0.0026 {\scriptsize[0.0025, 0.0028]} \\ | |
| 16 | +LightGBM & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0008, 0.0009]} & 0.0014 {\scriptsize[0.0013, 0.0015]} & 0.0019 {\scriptsize[0.0018, 0.0020]} & 0.0026 {\scriptsize[0.0025, 0.0028]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MLP (1m) & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0008, 0.0009]} & 0.0014 {\scriptsize[0.0013, 0.0015]} & 0.0019 {\scriptsize[0.0018, 0.0020]} & 0.0026 {\scriptsize[0.0025, 0.0028]} \\ | |
| 18 | +TCN (1m) & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0008, 0.0009]} & 0.0014 {\scriptsize[0.0013, 0.0015]} & 0.0019 {\scriptsize[0.0018, 0.0020]} & 0.0026 {\scriptsize[0.0025, 0.0028]} \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0008, 0.0009]} & 0.0014 {\scriptsize[0.0013, 0.0015]} & 0.0019 {\scriptsize[0.0018, 0.0020]} & 0.0026 {\scriptsize[0.0025, 0.0028]} \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0008, 0.0009]} & 0.0014 {\scriptsize[0.0013, 0.0015]} & 0.0019 {\scriptsize[0.0018, 0.0020]} & 0.0026 {\scriptsize[0.0025, 0.0028]} \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0008, 0.0009]} & 0.0014 {\scriptsize[0.0013, 0.0015]} & 0.0019 {\scriptsize[0.0018, 0.0020]} & 0.0026 {\scriptsize[0.0025, 0.0028]} \\ | |
| 22 | +\bottomrule | |
| 23 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 25 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/final_wis_heldout.tex
+26 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Final (held-out instruments): mean WIS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:final_wis_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0017, 0.0019]} & 0.0025 {\scriptsize[0.0024, 0.0027]} \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0017, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0017, 0.0019]} & 0.0025 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ | |
| 12 | +HAR-RV & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ | |
| 13 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0017, 0.0019]} & 0.0025 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0027]} \\ | |
| 14 | +Ridge & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ | |
| 15 | +Elastic net & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ | |
| 16 | +LightGBM & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MLP (1m) & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ | |
| 18 | +TCN (1m) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ | |
| 22 | +\bottomrule | |
| 23 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 25 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/main_calibration.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Main: empirical 50/80/95\% coverage and PIT KS statistic} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:main_calib} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccccccccccccccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=5$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=15$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=30$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=60$} \\ |
@@ -21,4 +22,5 @@ MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.030 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.033 & 0.5 | ||
| 21 | 22 | MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.029 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.033 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.037 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.041 \\ |
| 22 | 23 | \bottomrule |
| 23 | 24 | \end{tabular} |
| 25 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 24 | 26 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/main_calibration_heldout.tex
+26 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Main (held-out): empirical 50/80/95\% coverage and PIT KS statistic} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:main_calib_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccccccccccccccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=5$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=15$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=30$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=60$} \\ | |
| 8 | + & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS & 50 & 80 & 95 & KS \\ | |
| 9 | +\midrule | |
| 10 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.64 & 0.88 & 0.96 & 0.075 & 0.65 & 0.89 & 0.97 & 0.073 & 0.65 & 0.90 & 0.97 & 0.078 & 0.67 & 0.91 & 0.98 & 0.084 \\ | |
| 11 | +Seasonal volatility & 0.55 & 0.82 & 0.94 & 0.026 & 0.54 & 0.82 & 0.94 & 0.026 & 0.55 & 0.82 & 0.94 & 0.028 & 0.55 & 0.82 & 0.95 & 0.029 \\ | |
| 12 | +EWMA-$t$ & 0.53 & 0.83 & 0.97 & 0.018 & 0.53 & 0.84 & 0.97 & 0.019 & 0.54 & 0.84 & 0.97 & 0.024 & 0.55 & 0.85 & 0.97 & 0.030 \\ | |
| 13 | +HAR-RV & 0.57 & 0.87 & 0.98 & 0.041 & 0.49 & 0.80 & 0.96 & 0.007 & 0.50 & 0.81 & 0.96 & 0.008 & 0.52 & 0.82 & 0.96 & 0.014 \\ | |
| 14 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & 0.53 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.018 & 0.54 & 0.84 & 0.97 & 0.022 & 0.55 & 0.85 & 0.97 & 0.029 & 0.58 & 0.87 & 0.98 & 0.042 \\ | |
| 15 | +Ridge & 0.41 & 0.70 & 0.90 & 0.057 & 0.46 & 0.76 & 0.94 & 0.026 & 0.48 & 0.78 & 0.95 & 0.013 & 0.50 & 0.80 & 0.96 & 0.008 \\ | |
| 16 | +Elastic net & 0.41 & 0.70 & 0.90 & 0.057 & 0.46 & 0.76 & 0.94 & 0.026 & 0.48 & 0.78 & 0.95 & 0.013 & 0.50 & 0.80 & 0.96 & 0.008 \\ | |
| 17 | +LightGBM & 0.38 & 0.68 & 0.91 & 0.072 & 0.46 & 0.77 & 0.94 & 0.025 & 0.48 & 0.78 & 0.95 & 0.012 & 0.50 & 0.80 & 0.95 & 0.006 \\ | |
| 18 | +MLP (1m) & 0.54 & 0.82 & 0.96 & 0.023 & 0.55 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.029 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.033 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.037 \\ | |
| 19 | +TCN (1m) & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.027 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.031 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.035 & 0.58 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.039 \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.54 & 0.82 & 0.95 & 0.024 & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.026 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.030 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.033 \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.54 & 0.82 & 0.95 & 0.023 & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.026 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.029 & 0.56 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.034 \\ | |
| 22 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & 0.54 & 0.82 & 0.95 & 0.023 & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.026 & 0.56 & 0.84 & 0.96 & 0.030 & 0.57 & 0.85 & 0.96 & 0.035 \\ | |
| 23 | +\bottomrule | |
| 24 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 25 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/main_compare_crps.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Main: CRPS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:main_cmp_crps} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ |
@@ -19,5 +20,6 @@ MRPT-S (1m only) & -4.02\% (-69.2) & -4.00\% (-66.9) & -4.00\% (-50.4) & -4.17\% | ||
| 19 | 20 | MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -4.04\% (-69.5) & -4.04\% (-67.2) & -4.06\% (-51.3) & -4.23\% (-39.8) \\ |
| 20 | 21 | \bottomrule |
| 21 | 22 | \end{tabular} |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 22 | 24 | \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean CRPS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} |
| 23 | 25 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/main_compare_crps_heldout.tex
+25 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Main (held-out): CRPS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:main_cmp_crps_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Seasonal volatility & -2.97\% (-36.7) & -3.03\% (-37.7) & -3.14\% (-31.0) & -3.38\% (-24.7) \\ | |
| 10 | +EWMA-$t$ & -3.54\% (-43.0) & -3.45\% (-40.7) & -3.33\% (-29.4) & -3.23\% (-20.5) \\ | |
| 11 | +HAR-RV & -2.99\% (-39.7) & -3.93\% (-48.4) & -4.04\% (-38.2) & -4.30\% (-30.5) \\ | |
| 12 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -3.28\% (-40.1) & -3.20\% (-38.6) & -3.06\% (-28.1) & -2.83\% (-19.5) \\ | |
| 13 | +Ridge & -3.26\% (-32.0) & -3.86\% (-42.3) & -4.08\% (-35.6) & -4.43\% (-29.4) \\ | |
| 14 | +Elastic net & -3.26\% (-32.0) & -3.85\% (-42.2) & -4.08\% (-35.5) & -4.44\% (-29.5) \\ | |
| 15 | +LightGBM & -2.50\% (-22.6) & -3.74\% (-40.1) & -3.93\% (-33.4) & -4.30\% (-27.9) \\ | |
| 16 | +MLP (1m) & -3.92\% (-49.8) & -3.85\% (-48.3) & -3.82\% (-37.5) & -3.98\% (-29.0) \\ | |
| 17 | +TCN (1m) & -4.02\% (-52.1) & -3.90\% (-51.2) & -3.85\% (-40.0) & -3.98\% (-31.2) \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -4.12\% (-51.7) & -4.07\% (-51.5) & -4.08\% (-40.7) & -4.34\% (-32.2) \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & -4.08\% (-51.3) & -4.02\% (-50.6) & -4.02\% (-40.1) & -4.25\% (-31.9) \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -4.10\% (-52.0) & -4.04\% (-51.4) & -4.05\% (-40.8) & -4.29\% (-32.3) \\ | |
| 21 | +\bottomrule | |
| 22 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 24 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean CRPS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} | |
| 25 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/main_compare_qlike.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Main: QLIKE relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:main_cmp_qlike} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ |
@@ -19,5 +20,6 @@ MRPT-S (1m only) & -17184931027568.06\% (-60.5) & -15902869282831.41\% (-45.2) & | ||
| 19 | 20 | MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -17153971110963.66\% (-60.7) & -16037277205437.76\% (-48.1) & -15081771195336.03\% (-37.9) & -14340084012486.90\% (-30.2) \\ |
| 20 | 21 | \bottomrule |
| 21 | 22 | \end{tabular} |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 22 | 24 | \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean QLIKE versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} |
| 23 | 25 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/main_compare_qlike_heldout.tex
+25 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Main (held-out): QLIKE relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:main_cmp_qlike_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Seasonal volatility & -10197881952792.29\% (-23.6) & -9820053262498.37\% (-22.7) & -8492739370379.95\% (-12.6) & -6828601646415.30\% (-6.5) \\ | |
| 10 | +EWMA-$t$ & -13985074515913.91\% (-37.0) & -12209923172830.35\% (-27.0) & -9897403040026.40\% (-16.8) & -6799201127724.36\% (-8.9) \\ | |
| 11 | +HAR-RV & -11561898079453.18\% (-33.6) & -15457887605396.15\% (-37.3) & -14272360974230.15\% (-26.1) & -13273707831644.94\% (-19.4) \\ | |
| 12 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -7388166947421.55\% (-16.5) & -6696713758741.78\% (-16.0) & -4690422515322.66\% (-10.4) & -865268517734.10\% (-1.5) \\ | |
| 13 | +Ridge & +386478985928.25\% (0.5) & -14190659869919.63\% (-23.7) & -14022698526759.01\% (-20.3) & -13322533504300.98\% (-16.0) \\ | |
| 14 | +Elastic net & +374095534458.66\% (0.5) & -14152759381067.28\% (-23.2) & -13988559408128.51\% (-19.9) & -13300257261994.19\% (-15.8) \\ | |
| 15 | +LightGBM & +1297050835657109.75\% (2.7) & -13398286632246.19\% (-13.6) & -14995763686121.92\% (-27.9) & -14475278961493.17\% (-23.8) \\ | |
| 16 | +MLP (1m) & -17034644963943.96\% (-19.2) & -15946370199621.97\% (-19.5) & -14535364269361.72\% (-13.7) & -13005658787725.62\% (-8.5) \\ | |
| 17 | +TCN (1m) & -18636537181776.08\% (-55.4) & -16971749949659.03\% (-41.8) & -15714216179967.48\% (-33.8) & -14554204854126.64\% (-26.7) \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -19163873503843.14\% (-52.8) & -17894759635105.88\% (-52.3) & -16820059068029.27\% (-44.7) & -15964761744030.21\% (-35.5) \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & -18764124938752.46\% (-51.9) & -17287778159720.96\% (-38.4) & -16054207150684.29\% (-31.3) & -14954052048596.54\% (-25.1) \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -18760431723724.96\% (-54.8) & -17487271173252.59\% (-44.0) & -16348978484358.31\% (-35.0) & -15378874335569.79\% (-27.6) \\ | |
| 21 | +\bottomrule | |
| 22 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 24 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean QLIKE versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} | |
| 25 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/main_compare_wis.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Main: WIS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:main_cmp_wis} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ |
@@ -19,5 +20,6 @@ MRPT-S (1m only) & -4.26\% (-68.4) & -4.23\% (-66.3) & -4.22\% (-50.0) & -4.38\% | ||
| 19 | 20 | MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -4.28\% (-68.8) & -4.28\% (-66.7) & -4.29\% (-51.0) & -4.44\% (-39.3) \\ |
| 20 | 21 | \bottomrule |
| 21 | 22 | \end{tabular} |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 22 | 24 | \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean WIS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} |
| 23 | 25 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/main_compare_wis_heldout.tex
+25 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Main (held-out): WIS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:main_cmp_wis_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Seasonal volatility & -3.11\% (-34.4) & -3.15\% (-35.6) & -3.25\% (-29.5) & -3.48\% (-23.2) \\ | |
| 10 | +EWMA-$t$ & -3.68\% (-40.4) & -3.53\% (-38.1) & -3.36\% (-27.3) & -3.19\% (-18.8) \\ | |
| 11 | +HAR-RV & -3.10\% (-36.8) & -4.11\% (-47.4) & -4.19\% (-37.4) & -4.44\% (-29.8) \\ | |
| 12 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -3.37\% (-37.5) & -3.25\% (-35.9) & -3.05\% (-25.8) & -2.75\% (-17.5) \\ | |
| 13 | +Ridge & -3.32\% (-29.4) & -4.03\% (-41.1) & -4.25\% (-34.7) & -4.59\% (-28.6) \\ | |
| 14 | +Elastic net & -3.32\% (-29.5) & -4.02\% (-41.0) & -4.24\% (-34.5) & -4.61\% (-28.7) \\ | |
| 15 | +LightGBM & -2.55\% (-21.5) & -3.94\% (-39.9) & -4.11\% (-33.3) & -4.49\% (-27.6) \\ | |
| 16 | +MLP (1m) & -4.18\% (-49.9) & -4.10\% (-48.2) & -4.05\% (-37.4) & -4.21\% (-28.5) \\ | |
| 17 | +TCN (1m) & -4.29\% (-51.3) & -4.16\% (-50.6) & -4.09\% (-39.6) & -4.20\% (-30.7) \\ | |
| 18 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -4.41\% (-50.8) & -4.34\% (-50.9) & -4.33\% (-40.3) & -4.59\% (-31.7) \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & -4.36\% (-50.6) & -4.28\% (-50.0) & -4.26\% (-39.6) & -4.47\% (-31.3) \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -4.39\% (-51.2) & -4.31\% (-50.8) & -4.30\% (-40.5) & -4.52\% (-31.7) \\ | |
| 21 | +\bottomrule | |
| 22 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 24 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean WIS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} | |
| 25 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/main_crps_scaled.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Main: mean scaled CRPS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:main_crps_scaled} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ |
@@ -20,5 +21,6 @@ MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.4533 {\scriptsize[0.4478, 0.4592]} & 0.4416 {\scriptsize[0. | ||
| 20 | 21 | MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & 0.4532 {\scriptsize[0.4478, 0.4591]} & 0.4414 {\scriptsize[0.4351, 0.4479]} & 0.4312 {\scriptsize[0.4249, 0.4381]} & 0.4189 {\scriptsize[0.4107, 0.4287]} \\ |
| 21 | 22 | \bottomrule |
| 22 | 23 | \end{tabular} |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 23 | 25 | \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} |
| 24 | 26 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/main_crps_scaled_heldout.tex
+26 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Main (held-out instruments): mean scaled CRPS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:main_crps_scaled_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.4744 {\scriptsize[0.4686, 0.4803]} & 0.4653 {\scriptsize[0.4584, 0.4716]} & 0.4541 {\scriptsize[0.4468, 0.4617]} & 0.4415 {\scriptsize[0.4316, 0.4521]} \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & 0.4623 {\scriptsize[0.4562, 0.4686]} & 0.4531 {\scriptsize[0.4458, 0.4602]} & 0.4419 {\scriptsize[0.4342, 0.4500]} & 0.4289 {\scriptsize[0.4184, 0.4399]} \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & 0.4593 {\scriptsize[0.4533, 0.4655]} & 0.4508 {\scriptsize[0.4435, 0.4579]} & 0.4404 {\scriptsize[0.4327, 0.4485]} & 0.4287 {\scriptsize[0.4184, 0.4398]} \\ | |
| 12 | +HAR-RV & 0.4616 {\scriptsize[0.4556, 0.4677]} & 0.4490 {\scriptsize[0.4414, 0.4563]} & 0.4378 {\scriptsize[0.4299, 0.4461]} & 0.4248 {\scriptsize[0.4142, 0.4360]} \\ | |
| 13 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & 0.4607 {\scriptsize[0.4545, 0.4670]} & 0.4517 {\scriptsize[0.4443, 0.4591]} & 0.4415 {\scriptsize[0.4339, 0.4496]} & 0.4306 {\scriptsize[0.4203, 0.4414]} \\ | |
| 14 | +Ridge & 0.4621 {\scriptsize[0.4554, 0.4689]} & 0.4494 {\scriptsize[0.4416, 0.4568]} & 0.4376 {\scriptsize[0.4296, 0.4461]} & 0.4242 {\scriptsize[0.4136, 0.4355]} \\ | |
| 15 | +Elastic net & 0.4621 {\scriptsize[0.4554, 0.4689]} & 0.4494 {\scriptsize[0.4417, 0.4569]} & 0.4376 {\scriptsize[0.4296, 0.4461]} & 0.4242 {\scriptsize[0.4135, 0.4354]} \\ | |
| 16 | +LightGBM & 0.4647 {\scriptsize[0.4581, 0.4715]} & 0.4496 {\scriptsize[0.4419, 0.4571]} & 0.4382 {\scriptsize[0.4302, 0.4467]} & 0.4248 {\scriptsize[0.4142, 0.4359]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MLP (1m) & 0.4582 {\scriptsize[0.4520, 0.4646]} & 0.4499 {\scriptsize[0.4428, 0.4569]} & 0.4393 {\scriptsize[0.4317, 0.4470]} & 0.4264 {\scriptsize[0.4162, 0.4371]} \\ | |
| 18 | +TCN (1m) & 0.4578 {\scriptsize[0.4516, 0.4641]} & 0.4497 {\scriptsize[0.4425, 0.4567]} & 0.4392 {\scriptsize[0.4316, 0.4471]} & 0.4265 {\scriptsize[0.4164, 0.4373]} \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.4571 {\scriptsize[0.4510, 0.4634]} & 0.4488 {\scriptsize[0.4415, 0.4559]} & 0.4381 {\scriptsize[0.4304, 0.4460]} & 0.4250 {\scriptsize[0.4150, 0.4357]} \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.4573 {\scriptsize[0.4511, 0.4636]} & 0.4490 {\scriptsize[0.4417, 0.4561]} & 0.4384 {\scriptsize[0.4307, 0.4463]} & 0.4255 {\scriptsize[0.4154, 0.4364]} \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & 0.4573 {\scriptsize[0.4512, 0.4635]} & 0.4490 {\scriptsize[0.4417, 0.4561]} & 0.4383 {\scriptsize[0.4306, 0.4462]} & 0.4253 {\scriptsize[0.4151, 0.4362]} \\ | |
| 22 | +\bottomrule | |
| 23 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 25 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/main_logscore.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Main: mean log score of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:main_logscore} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ |
@@ -20,5 +21,6 @@ MRPT-S (1m only) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | ||
| 20 | 21 | MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ |
| 21 | 22 | \bottomrule |
| 22 | 23 | \end{tabular} |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 23 | 25 | \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} |
| 24 | 26 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/main_logscore_heldout.tex
+26 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Main (held-out instruments): mean log score of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:main_logscore_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & -5.4071 {\scriptsize[-5.4277, -5.3858]} & -4.8711 {\scriptsize[-4.8931, -4.8473]} & -4.5403 {\scriptsize[-4.5640, -4.5155]} & -4.2117 {\scriptsize[-4.2404, -4.1843]} \\ | |
| 12 | +HAR-RV & -5.3943 {\scriptsize[-5.4141, -5.3728]} & -4.8817 {\scriptsize[-4.9041, -4.8574]} & -4.5553 {\scriptsize[-4.5800, -4.5302]} & -4.2330 {\scriptsize[-4.2629, -4.2041]} \\ | |
| 13 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -5.4003 {\scriptsize[-5.4210, -5.3782]} & -4.8671 {\scriptsize[-4.8894, -4.8436]} & -4.5354 {\scriptsize[-4.5590, -4.5116]} & -4.2023 {\scriptsize[-4.2303, -4.1761]} \\ | |
| 14 | +Ridge & -5.3791 {\scriptsize[-5.4021, -5.3553]} & -4.8798 {\scriptsize[-4.9035, -4.8544]} & -4.5573 {\scriptsize[-4.5826, -4.5319]} & -4.2376 {\scriptsize[-4.2686, -4.2078]} \\ | |
| 15 | +Elastic net & -5.3791 {\scriptsize[-5.4021, -5.3553]} & -4.8797 {\scriptsize[-4.9034, -4.8543]} & -4.5573 {\scriptsize[-4.5825, -4.5319]} & -4.2376 {\scriptsize[-4.2686, -4.2079]} \\ | |
| 16 | +LightGBM & -5.3579 {\scriptsize[-5.3805, -5.3341]} & -4.8829 {\scriptsize[-4.9062, -4.8582]} & -4.5590 {\scriptsize[-4.5840, -4.5335]} & -4.2395 {\scriptsize[-4.2701, -4.2101]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MLP (1m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 18 | +TCN (1m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | |
| 22 | +\bottomrule | |
| 23 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 25 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/main_qlike.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Main: mean QLIKE of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:main_qlike} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ |
@@ -20,5 +21,6 @@ MRPT-S (1m only) & -12.4730 {\scriptsize[-12.5048, -12.4358]} & -11.4028 {\scrip | ||
| 20 | 21 | MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -12.4727 {\scriptsize[-12.5044, -12.4354]} & -11.4041 {\scriptsize[-11.4413, -11.3610]} & -10.7327 {\scriptsize[-10.7716, -10.6880]} & -10.0748 {\scriptsize[-10.1147, -10.0255]} \\ |
| 21 | 22 | \bottomrule |
| 22 | 23 | \end{tabular} |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 23 | 25 | \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} |
| 24 | 26 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/main_qlike_heldout.tex
+26 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Main (held-out instruments): mean QLIKE of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:main_qlike_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & -12.3758 {\scriptsize[-12.4179, -12.3322]} & -11.3150 {\scriptsize[-11.3571, -11.2714]} & -10.6555 {\scriptsize[-10.6986, -10.6135]} & -10.0063 {\scriptsize[-10.0500, -9.9624]} \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & -12.4778 {\scriptsize[-12.5166, -12.4364]} & -11.4132 {\scriptsize[-11.4559, -11.3681]} & -10.7404 {\scriptsize[-10.7895, -10.6903]} & -10.0746 {\scriptsize[-10.1325, -10.0195]} \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & -12.5156 {\scriptsize[-12.5537, -12.4738]} & -11.4371 {\scriptsize[-11.4796, -11.3933]} & -10.7544 {\scriptsize[-10.8003, -10.7094]} & -10.0743 {\scriptsize[-10.1247, -10.0260]} \\ | |
| 12 | +HAR-RV & -12.4914 {\scriptsize[-12.5285, -12.4500]} & -11.4695 {\scriptsize[-11.5127, -11.4246]} & -10.7982 {\scriptsize[-10.8456, -10.7515]} & -10.1390 {\scriptsize[-10.1907, -10.0897]} \\ | |
| 13 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -12.4497 {\scriptsize[-12.4912, -12.4064]} & -11.3819 {\scriptsize[-11.4260, -11.3386]} & -10.7024 {\scriptsize[-10.7475, -10.6586]} & -10.0149 {\scriptsize[-10.0630, -9.9695]} \\ | |
| 14 | +Ridge & -12.3719 {\scriptsize[-12.4198, -12.3225]} & -11.4569 {\scriptsize[-11.5052, -11.4089]} & -10.7957 {\scriptsize[-10.8476, -10.7461]} & -10.1395 {\scriptsize[-10.1945, -10.0873]} \\ | |
| 15 | +Elastic net & -12.3721 {\scriptsize[-12.4199, -12.3227]} & -11.4565 {\scriptsize[-11.5050, -11.4083]} & -10.7954 {\scriptsize[-10.8475, -10.7455]} & -10.1393 {\scriptsize[-10.1944, -10.0866]} \\ | |
| 16 | +LightGBM & 0.5947 {\scriptsize[-6.9895, 11.3358]} & -11.4489 {\scriptsize[-11.4962, -11.3996]} & -10.8054 {\scriptsize[-10.8535, -10.7585]} & -10.1510 {\scriptsize[-10.2017, -10.1017]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MLP (1m) & -12.5461 {\scriptsize[-12.5884, -12.5037]} & -11.4744 {\scriptsize[-11.5200, -11.4271]} & -10.8008 {\scriptsize[-10.8499, -10.7480]} & -10.1363 {\scriptsize[-10.1911, -10.0759]} \\ | |
| 18 | +TCN (1m) & -12.5622 {\scriptsize[-12.6000, -12.5192]} & -11.4847 {\scriptsize[-11.5279, -11.4404]} & -10.8126 {\scriptsize[-10.8586, -10.7664]} & -10.1518 {\scriptsize[-10.2014, -10.1041]} \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -12.5674 {\scriptsize[-12.6060, -12.5251]} & -11.4939 {\scriptsize[-11.5348, -11.4508]} & -10.8237 {\scriptsize[-10.8671, -10.7784]} & -10.1659 {\scriptsize[-10.2131, -10.1193]} \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & -12.5634 {\scriptsize[-12.6017, -12.5215]} & -11.4878 {\scriptsize[-11.5310, -11.4431]} & -10.8160 {\scriptsize[-10.8624, -10.7698]} & -10.1558 {\scriptsize[-10.2058, -10.1079]} \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -12.5634 {\scriptsize[-12.6024, -12.5210]} & -11.4898 {\scriptsize[-11.5320, -11.4456]} & -10.8190 {\scriptsize[-10.8645, -10.7726]} & -10.1601 {\scriptsize[-10.2096, -10.1119]} \\ | |
| 22 | +\bottomrule | |
| 23 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 25 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/main_wis.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Main: mean WIS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:main_wis} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ |
@@ -20,5 +21,6 @@ MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0. | ||
| 20 | 21 | MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0012]} & 0.0017 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0017]} & 0.0023 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0023]} \\ |
| 21 | 22 | \bottomrule |
| 22 | 23 | \end{tabular} |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 23 | 25 | \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} |
| 24 | 26 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
paper/tables/main_wis_heldout.tex
+26 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small | |
| 2 | +\caption{Main (held-out instruments): mean WIS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} | |
| 3 | +\label{tab:main_wis_heldout} | |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lcccc} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0012 {\scriptsize[0.0011, 0.0012]} & 0.0016 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0016]} & 0.0022 {\scriptsize[0.0021, 0.0023]} \\ | |
| 10 | +Seasonal volatility & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0006, 0.0007]} & 0.0011 {\scriptsize[0.0011, 0.0012]} & 0.0015 {\scriptsize[0.0015, 0.0016]} & 0.0021 {\scriptsize[0.0021, 0.0022]} \\ | |
| 11 | +EWMA-$t$ & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0006, 0.0007]} & 0.0011 {\scriptsize[0.0011, 0.0011]} & 0.0015 {\scriptsize[0.0015, 0.0016]} & 0.0021 {\scriptsize[0.0021, 0.0022]} \\ | |
| 12 | +HAR-RV & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0006, 0.0007]} & 0.0011 {\scriptsize[0.0011, 0.0011]} & 0.0015 {\scriptsize[0.0015, 0.0016]} & 0.0021 {\scriptsize[0.0020, 0.0022]} \\ | |
| 13 | +GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0006, 0.0007]} & 0.0011 {\scriptsize[0.0011, 0.0012]} & 0.0016 {\scriptsize[0.0015, 0.0016]} & 0.0021 {\scriptsize[0.0021, 0.0022]} \\ | |
| 14 | +Ridge & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0006, 0.0007]} & 0.0011 {\scriptsize[0.0011, 0.0011]} & 0.0015 {\scriptsize[0.0015, 0.0016]} & 0.0021 {\scriptsize[0.0020, 0.0022]} \\ | |
| 15 | +Elastic net & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0006, 0.0007]} & 0.0011 {\scriptsize[0.0011, 0.0011]} & 0.0015 {\scriptsize[0.0015, 0.0016]} & 0.0021 {\scriptsize[0.0020, 0.0022]} \\ | |
| 16 | +LightGBM & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0007]} & 0.0011 {\scriptsize[0.0011, 0.0011]} & 0.0015 {\scriptsize[0.0015, 0.0016]} & 0.0021 {\scriptsize[0.0020, 0.0022]} \\ | |
| 17 | +MLP (1m) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0006, 0.0007]} & 0.0011 {\scriptsize[0.0011, 0.0011]} & 0.0015 {\scriptsize[0.0015, 0.0016]} & 0.0021 {\scriptsize[0.0020, 0.0022]} \\ | |
| 18 | +TCN (1m) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0006, 0.0007]} & 0.0011 {\scriptsize[0.0011, 0.0011]} & 0.0015 {\scriptsize[0.0015, 0.0016]} & 0.0021 {\scriptsize[0.0020, 0.0022]} \\ | |
| 19 | +MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0006, 0.0007]} & 0.0011 {\scriptsize[0.0011, 0.0011]} & 0.0015 {\scriptsize[0.0015, 0.0016]} & 0.0021 {\scriptsize[0.0020, 0.0022]} \\ | |
| 20 | +MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0006, 0.0007]} & 0.0011 {\scriptsize[0.0011, 0.0011]} & 0.0015 {\scriptsize[0.0015, 0.0016]} & 0.0021 {\scriptsize[0.0020, 0.0022]} \\ | |
| 21 | +MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0006, 0.0007]} & 0.0011 {\scriptsize[0.0011, 0.0011]} & 0.0015 {\scriptsize[0.0015, 0.0016]} & 0.0021 {\scriptsize[0.0020, 0.0022]} \\ | |
| 22 | +\bottomrule | |
| 23 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 25 | +\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} | |
| 26 | +\end{table} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/pilot_calibration.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Pilot: empirical 50/80/95\% coverage and PIT KS statistic} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:pilot_calib} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccccccccccccccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=5$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=15$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=30$} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{$H=60$} \\ |
@@ -20,4 +21,5 @@ MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.54 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.035 & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.034 & 0 | ||
| 20 | 21 | MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.55 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.039 & 0.56 & 0.83 & 0.96 & 0.038 & 0.53 & 0.82 & 0.95 & 0.040 & 0.54 & 0.81 & 0.95 & 0.053 \\ |
| 21 | 22 | \bottomrule |
| 22 | 23 | \end{tabular} |
| 24 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 23 | 25 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/pilot_compare_crps.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Pilot: CRPS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:pilot_cmp_crps} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ |
@@ -18,5 +19,6 @@ MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -2.96\% (-8.8) & -3.07\% (-7.9) & -3.36\% (-7.2) & -2.62\% | ||
| 18 | 19 | MRPT-S (1m only) & -3.00\% (-8.9) & -2.99\% (-7.8) & -3.16\% (-6.8) & -2.42\% (-3.9) \\ |
| 19 | 20 | \bottomrule |
| 20 | 21 | \end{tabular} |
| 22 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 21 | 23 | \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean CRPS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} |
| 22 | 24 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/pilot_compare_qlike.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Pilot: QLIKE relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:pilot_cmp_qlike} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ |
@@ -18,5 +19,6 @@ MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -14426818050181.94\% (-11.8) & -14161537101518.33\% (-13.4) | ||
| 18 | 19 | MRPT-S (1m only) & -13769052086011.91\% (-11.5) & -13594106578801.23\% (-13.2) & -12903146151897.46\% (-11.4) & -12091461273483.05\% (-8.3) \\ |
| 19 | 20 | \bottomrule |
| 20 | 21 | \end{tabular} |
| 22 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 21 | 23 | \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean QLIKE versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} |
| 22 | 24 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/pilot_compare_wis.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Pilot: WIS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:pilot_cmp_wis} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ |
@@ -18,5 +19,6 @@ MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -3.13\% (-8.7) & -3.29\% (-8.1) & -3.57\% (-7.3) & -2.78\% | ||
| 18 | 19 | MRPT-S (1m only) & -3.13\% (-8.7) & -3.20\% (-7.9) & -3.39\% (-6.9) & -2.53\% (-3.8) \\ |
| 19 | 20 | \bottomrule |
| 20 | 21 | \end{tabular} |
| 22 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 21 | 23 | \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean WIS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage} |
| 22 | 24 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/pilot_crps_scaled.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Pilot: mean scaled CRPS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:pilot_crps_scaled} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ |
@@ -19,5 +20,6 @@ MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.4697 {\scriptsize[0.4509, 0.4903]} & 0.4763 {\scriptsize[ | ||
| 19 | 20 | MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.4693 {\scriptsize[0.4506, 0.4899]} & 0.4765 {\scriptsize[0.4527, 0.5006]} & 0.4842 {\scriptsize[0.4558, 0.5148]} & 0.4745 {\scriptsize[0.4245, 0.5395]} \\ |
| 20 | 21 | \bottomrule |
| 21 | 22 | \end{tabular} |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 22 | 24 | \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} |
| 23 | 25 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/pilot_logscore.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Pilot: mean log score of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:pilot_logscore} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ |
@@ -19,5 +20,6 @@ MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ | ||
| 19 | 20 | MRPT-S (1m only) & nan & nan & nan & nan \\ |
| 20 | 21 | \bottomrule |
| 21 | 22 | \end{tabular} |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 22 | 24 | \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} |
| 23 | 25 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/pilot_qlike.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Pilot: mean QLIKE of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:pilot_qlike} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ |
@@ -19,5 +20,6 @@ MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -12.3700 {\scriptsize[-12.4544, -12.3090]} & -11.2950 {\scr | ||
| 19 | 20 | MRPT-S (1m only) & -12.3634 {\scriptsize[-12.4469, -12.3042]} & -11.2893 {\scriptsize[-11.3782, -11.2208]} & -10.6177 {\scriptsize[-10.7201, -10.5289]} & -9.9615 {\scriptsize[-10.0720, -9.8533]} \\ |
| 20 | 21 | \bottomrule |
| 21 | 22 | \end{tabular} |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 22 | 24 | \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} |
| 23 | 25 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
paper/tables/pilot_wis.tex
+2 −0
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small |
| 2 | 2 | \caption{Pilot: mean WIS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} |
| 3 | 3 | \label{tab:pilot_wis} |
| 4 | +\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} | |
| 4 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lcccc} |
| 5 | 6 | \toprule |
| 6 | 7 | Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ |
@@ -19,5 +20,6 @@ MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[ | ||
| 19 | 20 | MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0013]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0017, 0.0019]} & 0.0025 {\scriptsize[0.0022, 0.0028]} \\ |
| 20 | 21 | \bottomrule |
| 21 | 22 | \end{tabular} |
| 23 | +\end{adjustbox} | |
| 22 | 24 | \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} |
| 23 | 25 | \end{table} |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/baselines_meta.json
+10 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
| 2 | + "wall_s": 0.01510000228881836, | |
| 3 | + "n_train": 586202, | |
| 4 | + "n_eval": 986468, | |
| 5 | + "baselines": [ | |
| 6 | + "naive_rw", | |
| 7 | + "seasonal_vol", | |
| 8 | + "ewma" | |
| 9 | + ] | |
| 10 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/compare_crps_vs_naive_rw_test.csv
+73 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,reference,metric,H,diff,lo,hi,dm_t,dm_p,lag,n,rel_diff | |
| 2 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.0153336535020416e-05,-3.178085196529713e-05,-2.8621022129690403e-05,-57.24230203169707,0.0,240,986468,-0.036469977079113494 | |
| 3 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.141107431201579e-05,-5.4306554597902424e-05,-4.869537553252841e-05,-53.41639244190979,0.0,240,986468,-0.036935330903301276 | |
| 4 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,30,-6.920795849026222e-05,-7.34559891745189e-05,-6.48981781280047e-05,-37.30127082609757,0.0,480,986468,-0.03604221832087295 | |
| 5 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,60,-9.136029739731022e-05,-9.826666444685654e-05,-8.432500464225617e-05,-25.509257694984463,0.0,960,986468,-0.03465687910688703 | |
| 6 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.303419414289961e-05,-3.465341484227722e-05,-3.148468252710012e-05,-65.78648670781847,0.0,240,986468,-0.03995432816594995 | |
| 7 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.587711065564174e-05,-5.872861487272204e-05,-5.310628682717907e-05,-63.82900012796764,0.0,240,986468,-0.040143871716451354 | |
| 8 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.767251545127305e-05,-8.19947159118078e-05,-7.337610349110437e-05,-48.40776636382026,0.0,480,986468,-0.04045040224413003 | |
| 9 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011188378839498126,-0.00011861306254252096,-0.00010487052178044611,-38.20291182603136,0.0,960,986468,-0.0424423194635918 | |
| 10 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.290531684205012e-05,-3.448869869122051e-05,-3.1353832101140415e-05,-66.26878702967498,0.0,240,986468,-0.039798453136911625 | |
| 11 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.538240134842514e-05,-5.829624780784192e-05,-5.257398974512397e-05,-63.8823415957828,0.0,240,986468,-0.03978845700848216 | |
| 12 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.704565231888034e-05,-8.123974948112507e-05,-7.294004970593421e-05,-48.85878379416923,0.0,480,986468,-0.04012394357712307 | |
| 13 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011044208819038196,-0.00011696706084061105,-0.00010361934303212194,-38.445664801882906,0.0,960,986468,-0.04189542074366006 | |
| 14 | +mrpt_small_b4k,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.386634996708862e-05,-3.548260026162037e-05,-3.2320287848548866e-05,-65.92674657413797,0.0,240,986468,-0.04096080729303351 | |
| 15 | +mrpt_small_b4k,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.7300136502555946e-05,-6.028978761342354e-05,-5.443681637296607e-05,-63.85226350916639,0.0,240,986468,-0.0411662181903013 | |
| 16 | +mrpt_small_b4k,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.973989088939844e-05,-8.418100506810197e-05,-7.542919352589549e-05,-48.3613792461645,0.0,480,986468,-0.04152705294323438 | |
| 17 | +mrpt_small_b4k,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011446311444923953,-0.00012141156887623581,-0.00010710549448902164,-37.71637285780191,0.0,960,986468,-0.043420768459340196 | |
| 18 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.3277641949016094e-05,-3.491109470358117e-05,-3.174790536090396e-05,-66.56575998604976,0.0,240,986468,-0.04024877438415592 | |
| 19 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.622796393714863e-05,-5.916049143294407e-05,-5.3319949386575075e-05,-64.69838124098433,0.0,240,986468,-0.04039593573620551 | |
| 20 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.784466261793696e-05,-8.202937918440052e-05,-7.362203075261006e-05,-48.85674757625952,0.0,480,986468,-0.04054005328859905 | |
| 21 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011168831968341265,-0.00011836020573243663,-0.00010463655255000412,-38.14488092673758,0.0,960,986468,-0.04236816979793833 | |
| 22 | +mrpt_small_copula,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.3377150703433554e-05,-3.5005327441111844e-05,-3.178661025658756e-05,-66.8552457567278,0.0,240,986468,-0.040369128627161875 | |
| 23 | +mrpt_small_copula,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.6105367588210575e-05,-5.9025863481724915e-05,-5.3192101870348516e-05,-64.48567612161527,0.0,240,986468,-0.04030785866767194 | |
| 24 | +mrpt_small_copula,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.72389499147785e-05,-8.153962661062062e-05,-7.286325573708594e-05,-48.20732821682654,0.0,480,986468,-0.04022460937198598 | |
| 25 | +mrpt_small_copula,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010957415776973401,-0.0001165224320495103,-0.0001025299511150518,-37.3196544477186,0.0,960,986468,-0.04156617751089371 | |
| 26 | +mrpt_small_cross,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.346880485083706e-05,-3.508724796895195e-05,-3.1918684554144824e-05,-66.04309104719337,0.0,240,986468,-0.04047998284892036 | |
| 27 | +mrpt_small_cross,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.672767329205866e-05,-5.9752664325607654e-05,-5.39093532206813e-05,-64.26191094463019,0.0,240,986468,-0.04075494263551793 | |
| 28 | +mrpt_small_cross,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.887381292878603e-05,-8.322364976901495e-05,-7.460064481022554e-05,-48.733832154417804,0.0,480,986468,-0.04107601564029644 | |
| 29 | +mrpt_small_cross,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011315700632974328,-0.0001199663801897961,-0.00010616691407676995,-38.10424913604344,0.0,960,986468,-0.04292530563262617 | |
| 30 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,naive_rw,crps,5,,,,,,240,986468, | |
| 31 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,naive_rw,crps,15,,,,,,240,986468, | |
| 32 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,naive_rw,crps,30,,,,,,480,986468, | |
| 33 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,naive_rw,crps,60,,,,,,960,986468, | |
| 34 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.4075859126643384e-05,-3.572871263268748e-05,-3.2536812636301554e-05,-68.53042667983499,0.0,240,986468,-0.0412142052623744 | |
| 35 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.842651113060003e-05,-6.130304309341815e-05,-5.567796621123442e-05,-67.14989022879111,0.0,240,986468,-0.04197544110899389 | |
| 36 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,naive_rw,crps,30,-8.189350546633742e-05,-8.601545439155075e-05,-7.782296263982141e-05,-51.4412179925752,0.0,480,986468,-0.04264861538279067 | |
| 37 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011830468617898504,-0.0001251765898919441,-0.00011148433819081695,-39.97016040631839,0.0,960,986468,-0.04487804137559654 | |
| 38 | +mrpt_small_noregime,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.368654401286156e-05,-3.535283728063268e-05,-3.212204620018911e-05,-65.76752127529312,0.0,240,986468,-0.040743334874293616 | |
| 39 | +mrpt_small_noregime,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.704572994004391e-05,-5.99607348259969e-05,-5.422776729558552e-05,-63.901316525665145,0.0,240,986468,-0.04098344452341923 | |
| 40 | +mrpt_small_noregime,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.936593934531041e-05,-8.368896721359074e-05,-7.500391980950405e-05,-48.924819712408656,0.0,480,986468,-0.04133230593021066 | |
| 41 | +mrpt_small_noregime,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.0001136706609707774,-0.00012035617380617784,-0.00010669392121297257,-38.875912257161225,0.0,960,986468,-0.043120156867836094 | |
| 42 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.322695234585412e-05,-3.487612388009416e-05,-3.168112119325648e-05,-66.19997364989091,0.0,240,986468,-0.040187466121857335 | |
| 43 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.6031205920412516e-05,-5.891998157801281e-05,-5.322230170287175e-05,-63.97769429837492,0.0,240,986468,-0.04025457859568127 | |
| 44 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.755756093141245e-05,-8.185847405681461e-05,-7.327498066097491e-05,-48.399126353827626,0.0,480,986468,-0.04039053606699998 | |
| 45 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011096081343379212,-0.00011766156352478781,-0.00010383137867925262,-37.89656125465501,0.0,960,986468,-0.042092195475821624 | |
| 46 | +mrpt_small_returns_only,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.2376787325372713e-05,-3.3843275835241964e-05,-3.097618908936975e-05,-68.67560897993731,0.0,240,986468,-0.039159205160606475 | |
| 47 | +mrpt_small_returns_only,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.448075486197125e-05,-5.705401714090101e-05,-5.1922971713175936e-05,-66.5139269737048,0.0,240,986468,-0.03914068584671147 | |
| 48 | +mrpt_small_returns_only,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.544788884412058e-05,-7.935186019260118e-05,-7.171970036769537e-05,-50.57971056329234,0.0,480,986468,-0.039291858059234096 | |
| 49 | +mrpt_small_returns_only,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010752902087117318,-0.00011378633624190056,-0.00010129931790660578,-39.34772668871008,0.0,960,986468,-0.040790369372461104 | |
| 50 | +mrpt_small_seed2,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.3861333045868546e-05,-3.543694828683326e-05,-3.235144017656997e-05,-69.02573326810439,0.0,240,986468,-0.04095473940725605 | |
| 51 | +mrpt_small_seed2,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.7731446401722465e-05,-6.061446689074337e-05,-5.486460899588375e-05,-67.47438935556265,0.0,240,986468,-0.041476084771787256 | |
| 52 | +mrpt_small_seed2,naive_rw,crps,30,-8.01260344643074e-05,-8.457978549930452e-05,-7.577080501921809e-05,-50.49090522739973,0.0,480,986468,-0.04172814933928006 | |
| 53 | +mrpt_small_seed2,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011323128055166315,-0.00012054349943050004,-0.00010553678930469528,-37.507479649306504,0.0,960,986468,-0.0429534810305087 | |
| 54 | +mrpt_small_seed3,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.40484652321132e-05,-3.573833335123559e-05,-3.251360123821234e-05,-69.79151299434909,0.0,240,986468,-0.041181072786156944 | |
| 55 | +mrpt_small_seed3,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.7364740058251654e-05,-6.022785302475662e-05,-5.4747478731695836e-05,-66.53973206479166,0.0,240,986468,-0.041212631414282365 | |
| 56 | +mrpt_small_seed3,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.914738700327268e-05,-8.324912295311129e-05,-7.511118400408044e-05,-49.52350376002402,0.0,480,986468,-0.04121848793300199 | |
| 57 | +mrpt_small_seed3,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011033682141215488,-0.00011734505657120873,-0.00010362062273060561,-35.7784243457277,0.0,960,986468,-0.04185548853994665 | |
| 58 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.286329531789997e-05,-3.4500856437289344e-05,-3.1286436152547826e-05,-65.39711388551866,0.0,240,986468,-0.03974762877719921 | |
| 59 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.553933329562208e-05,-5.84270490528787e-05,-5.275362569873266e-05,-63.348623973130934,0.0,240,986468,-0.03990120184948353 | |
| 60 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.6743700254104e-05,-8.100185161955227e-05,-7.238698369834635e-05,-47.793362579912454,0.0,480,986468,-0.03996669255457429 | |
| 61 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010913330922905314,-0.00011572267841915866,-0.00010201589388273512,-36.9826476909865,0.0,960,986468,-0.041398944752090605 | |
| 62 | +mrpt_small_ticker,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.349931481381249e-05,-3.51279612154194e-05,-3.198571933981196e-05,-69.3735683483855,0.0,240,986468,-0.04051688415996122 | |
| 63 | +mrpt_small_ticker,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.559678757111299e-05,-5.8385162253023826e-05,-5.2904899238299024e-05,-66.67151982855493,0.0,240,986468,-0.03994247880596546 | |
| 64 | +mrpt_small_ticker,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.605793592112885e-05,-8.020012928028165e-05,-7.194114398121636e-05,-50.41014067443401,0.0,480,986468,-0.039609559237179355 | |
| 65 | +mrpt_small_ticker,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010656761453231029,-0.00011309746963790148,-0.00010005694087462866,-39.02168610206173,0.0,960,986468,-0.040425666714875984 | |
| 66 | +mrpt_small_time_only,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.2286025262233287e-05,-3.374272244154619e-05,-3.087038412639433e-05,-68.71571196023417,0.0,240,986468,-0.03904942990046226 | |
| 67 | +mrpt_small_time_only,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.426504732128896e-05,-5.6812511614013704e-05,-5.1736155394136e-05,-66.4351610458252,0.0,240,986468,-0.03898571477287076 | |
| 68 | +mrpt_small_time_only,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.516386566948722e-05,-7.904713370321643e-05,-7.14599762171926e-05,-50.46180770700967,0.0,480,986468,-0.03914394406940353 | |
| 69 | +mrpt_small_time_only,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010720781235423047,-0.00011349026621906982,-0.00010105840322560156,-39.219932604481116,0.0,960,986468,-0.040668521205840386 | |
| 70 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.3907885282545737e-05,-2.558542006436463e-05,-2.229839798812497e-05,-48.76305384889867,0.0,240,986468,-0.028916203924957373 | |
| 71 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,15,-4.30476164737567e-05,-4.5798825922623924e-05,-4.029906213878477e-05,-49.91326904989189,0.0,240,986468,-0.030926760047980513 | |
| 72 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,30,-6.186223022997522e-05,-6.625925314949964e-05,-5.768787383136301e-05,-39.318604676264314,0.0,480,986468,-0.0322166995877879 | |
| 73 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,60,-9.06487313909072e-05,-9.783218221149399e-05,-8.375103121552853e-05,-30.72417827674907,0.0,960,986468,-0.03438695160267549 | |
added
results/metrics/ablations/compare_qlike_vs_naive_rw_test.csv
+73 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,reference,metric,H,diff,lo,hi,dm_t,dm_p,lag,n,rel_diff | |
| 2 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.12797135612615712,-0.1360024203367813,-0.12081739192053334,-41.929716223496335,0.0,240,986468,-127971356126.15712 | |
| 3 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.10996225269347051,-0.117486425449519,-0.10106864456087608,-30.874978075343076,0.0,240,986468,-109962252693.47052 | |
| 4 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.08956891977333716,-0.09820088038850718,-0.07865345474307266,-18.614064364989822,0.0,480,986468,-89568919773.33716 | |
| 5 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.06156613654049436,-0.07235367774245811,-0.04838606384772772,-9.714254865280108,0.0,960,986468,-61566136540.49436 | |
| 6 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.16784744013233527,-0.17638810687796466,-0.16004544437824955,-59.94998375263613,0.0,240,986468,-167847440132.33527 | |
| 7 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.1562212590105164,-0.16411924924681726,-0.14657997069742554,-46.04020204965965,0.0,240,986468,-156221259010.5164 | |
| 8 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14624940309040496,-0.15528359528896762,-0.13472389100302773,-34.08352691389249,0.0,480,986468,-146249403090.40497 | |
| 9 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.1385159736660178,-0.14928228001638363,-0.12545105026805978,-26.215608308250147,0.0,960,986468,-138515973666.01782 | |
| 10 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.16682128295657167,-0.1752541910380998,-0.1589403120590233,-59.388965197175885,0.0,240,986468,-166821282956.5717 | |
| 11 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.15504495830411608,-0.16295295966609427,-0.14549590009170196,-45.721745123924066,0.0,240,986468,-155044958304.1161 | |
| 12 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14458082208296452,-0.1535571602487391,-0.13329828171388608,-33.60197704973815,0.0,480,986468,-144580822082.96454 | |
| 13 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.136298635807345,-0.14684093034285473,-0.12346547915001796,-26.14478129401347,0.0,960,986468,-136298635807.345 | |
| 14 | +mrpt_small_b4k,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.16657958587227362,-0.17523073624706192,-0.1582164136854617,-55.48405794087815,0.0,240,986468,-166579585872.27362 | |
| 15 | +mrpt_small_b4k,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.15462895213783442,-0.1634963258238903,-0.14367484087572077,-39.36583018908435,0.0,240,986468,-154628952137.83444 | |
| 16 | +mrpt_small_b4k,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14430786147004573,-0.15434946533300087,-0.13154808706933477,-29.82320520668449,0.0,480,986468,-144307861470.04575 | |
| 17 | +mrpt_small_b4k,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.137067320553692,-0.14847178781445572,-0.12320461228414308,-24.259918402658418,0.0,960,986468,-137067320553.692 | |
| 18 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.16951548536150854,-0.1784346972383328,-0.1614179651664879,-59.15312685685144,0.0,240,986468,-169515485361.50854 | |
| 19 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.156901583504058,-0.16519591161153901,-0.14680721196903884,-43.239404774580834,0.0,240,986468,-156901583504.058 | |
| 20 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14667427641248196,-0.1558170972183868,-0.1348934729511087,-32.99380088816196,0.0,480,986468,-146674276412.48196 | |
| 21 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.138841922457742,-0.14919441336030967,-0.12599224036989187,-26.77348822190041,0.0,960,986468,-138841922457.742 | |
| 22 | +mrpt_small_copula,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.16948981438808297,-0.17817132943734454,-0.1613802648744324,-59.24161645162008,0.0,240,986468,-169489814388.08298 | |
| 23 | +mrpt_small_copula,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.15712124967684593,-0.1653058223361345,-0.14726216733679115,-43.7753853683374,0.0,240,986468,-157121249676.84595 | |
| 24 | +mrpt_small_copula,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.1467511928755453,-0.15583549052510454,-0.13507690750787912,-33.046043332937536,0.0,480,986468,-146751192875.54532 | |
| 25 | +mrpt_small_copula,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.1388727357794658,-0.14922443547153982,-0.12602944149806067,-26.775620380410533,0.0,960,986468,-138872735779.4658 | |
| 26 | +mrpt_small_cross,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.16477620786066718,-0.17312175591815482,-0.15686723413088016,-56.676597561669574,0.0,240,986468,-164776207860.66718 | |
| 27 | +mrpt_small_cross,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.1539543468645688,-0.16248564218753306,-0.14357609404164498,-42.135624667004734,0.0,240,986468,-153954346864.5688 | |
| 28 | +mrpt_small_cross,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14397167048267775,-0.15362935372705308,-0.1321954200347388,-31.542851995542794,0.0,480,986468,-143971670482.67776 | |
| 29 | +mrpt_small_cross,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.13604618987866277,-0.14724280878631701,-0.12228341873746501,-24.531393081495548,0.0,960,986468,-136046189878.66277 | |
| 30 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,naive_rw,qlike,5,,,,,,240,986468, | |
| 31 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,naive_rw,qlike,15,,,,,,240,986468, | |
| 32 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,naive_rw,qlike,30,,,,,,480,986468, | |
| 33 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,naive_rw,qlike,60,,,,,,960,986468, | |
| 34 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.15982022088717057,-0.16826331336842823,-0.1516204971393463,-54.438374652776496,0.0,240,986468,-159820220887.17056 | |
| 35 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.14939742152795704,-0.15885014273372114,-0.13761892745992327,-35.53318479571205,0.0,240,986468,-149397421527.95703 | |
| 36 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.13982332706927228,-0.15065781529445194,-0.1259467745567129,-26.54257299841241,0.0,480,986468,-139823327069.27228 | |
| 37 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.13221064495583948,-0.14516951248580653,-0.11647633835158662,-20.549206072930282,0.0,960,986468,-132210644955.83948 | |
| 38 | +mrpt_small_noregime,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.16629184340488873,-0.17488496652830346,-0.15811700758797012,-55.9849547913648,0.0,240,986468,-166291843404.88873 | |
| 39 | +mrpt_small_noregime,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.1548841927864612,-0.16364984089357304,-0.14406288273202866,-40.145216313154336,0.0,240,986468,-154884192786.4612 | |
| 40 | +mrpt_small_noregime,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.1448466591915943,-0.15480542620244156,-0.1323980685720539,-30.41593208338639,0.0,480,986468,-144846659191.59433 | |
| 41 | +mrpt_small_noregime,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.1373459715260011,-0.14847390463091242,-0.12369730236649518,-24.600694960144775,0.0,960,986468,-137345971526.00108 | |
| 42 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.1677023407059982,-0.17633841578430123,-0.15992691522923752,-59.775570147362856,0.0,240,986468,-167702340705.9982 | |
| 43 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.15523510736175875,-0.1634093632103275,-0.14521126883651572,-42.609699223092925,0.0,240,986468,-155235107361.75876 | |
| 44 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14480669945622357,-0.1539409227531163,-0.13304024853571048,-31.716311636540187,0.0,480,986468,-144806699456.22357 | |
| 45 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.1367977243146047,-0.14740794141472088,-0.12361276371833137,-25.416759419445782,0.0,960,986468,-136797724314.60472 | |
| 46 | +mrpt_small_returns_only,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.15515037879753996,-0.16338132080543744,-0.14775727614003256,-54.2786176778741,0.0,240,986468,-155150378797.53995 | |
| 47 | +mrpt_small_returns_only,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.14390965004586043,-0.15132368244373542,-0.13529856089606937,-43.527954096126116,0.0,240,986468,-143909650045.86044 | |
| 48 | +mrpt_small_returns_only,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.13413503383533834,-0.14211635996276706,-0.12410548306782765,-32.654903670416445,0.0,480,986468,-134135033835.33835 | |
| 49 | +mrpt_small_returns_only,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.1253027587249417,-0.13507455028128007,-0.11374277842252414,-25.053850300181157,0.0,960,986468,-125302758724.94171 | |
| 50 | +mrpt_small_seed2,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.16497879899613396,-0.17308974000160035,-0.15704842248045292,-57.79648605330817,0.0,240,986468,-164978798996.13397 | |
| 51 | +mrpt_small_seed2,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.15476396745890306,-0.1630505819076565,-0.1446839520730733,-42.54309232784625,0.0,240,986468,-154763967458.90305 | |
| 52 | +mrpt_small_seed2,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14526322790109147,-0.15459321125088066,-0.1335797050110646,-32.30816484828495,0.0,480,986468,-145263227901.0915 | |
| 53 | +mrpt_small_seed2,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.1379812685574798,-0.14881882000336877,-0.12495691528728446,-25.88721279764884,0.0,960,986468,-137981268557.4798 | |
| 54 | +mrpt_small_seed3,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.16655899365263513,-0.17487353278951628,-0.15881004649692076,-58.87704196942956,0.0,240,986468,-166558993652.63513 | |
| 55 | +mrpt_small_seed3,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.15561892972445382,-0.16456276090821145,-0.14442758479955942,-39.5211652191308,0.0,240,986468,-155618929724.45383 | |
| 56 | +mrpt_small_seed3,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14569260518274627,-0.15563057256495197,-0.13278093260045445,-29.78144418821801,0.0,480,986468,-145692605182.74628 | |
| 57 | +mrpt_small_seed3,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.13809809983706306,-0.14939656209810762,-0.12380913395862955,-24.031006724152675,0.0,960,986468,-138098099837.06305 | |
| 58 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.1621948964575921,-0.17081113983997195,-0.15432415309088357,-54.724808863259135,0.0,240,986468,-162194896457.5921 | |
| 59 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.1516260543569342,-0.16006682000371372,-0.14139118126945205,-41.33058814521584,0.0,240,986468,-151626054356.9342 | |
| 60 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14211178831079843,-0.15135964977260277,-0.13038888050505154,-31.355146095690394,0.0,480,986468,-142111788310.79843 | |
| 61 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.13447203006371541,-0.14510354071410408,-0.12116200063375065,-25.021570088313027,0.0,960,986468,-134472030063.71542 | |
| 62 | +mrpt_small_ticker,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.168495954215832,-0.1768834391780652,-0.16088746687440758,-60.80860005146443,0.0,240,986468,-168495954215.832 | |
| 63 | +mrpt_small_ticker,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.15626699642085726,-0.16422265395509103,-0.14656281945885252,-44.83351744249819,0.0,240,986468,-156266996420.85727 | |
| 64 | +mrpt_small_ticker,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14612058375530912,-0.15481885984912497,-0.13482515052741753,-34.30996851962012,0.0,480,986468,-146120583755.3091 | |
| 65 | +mrpt_small_ticker,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.13771726203549972,-0.14756187586334513,-0.12559156800741642,-28.091727994048163,0.0,960,986468,-137717262035.49973 | |
| 66 | +mrpt_small_time_only,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.1546880563380332,-0.1628369613558883,-0.14746854652268773,-54.99890068628869,0.0,240,986468,-154688056338.0332 | |
| 67 | +mrpt_small_time_only,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.14353894638305925,-0.15090240669946003,-0.13492361230759925,-43.53581724382416,0.0,240,986468,-143538946383.05927 | |
| 68 | +mrpt_small_time_only,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.13381301995988357,-0.14183508428096891,-0.1238663339310836,-32.56061714970844,0.0,480,986468,-133813019959.88358 | |
| 69 | +mrpt_small_time_only,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.12502617002976352,-0.1348687544455112,-0.11339912009904794,-24.81486765381886,0.0,960,986468,-125026170029.76352 | |
| 70 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.08472593190631705,-0.09383203986923513,-0.07628602505627109,-26.489033288725274,0.0,240,986468,-84725931906.31706 | |
| 71 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.08305269577503387,-0.09170656806188067,-0.0722302857401674,-23.843938519219417,0.0,240,986468,-83052695775.03387 | |
| 72 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.07325382995932987,-0.08412048919373911,-0.058824083467476404,-14.100977601237085,0.0,480,986468,-73253829959.32988 | |
| 73 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.06019653909459674,-0.07583149089793001,-0.039288613660832236,-7.3826604519304215,1.5520917884259688e-13,960,986468,-60196539094.59674 | |
added
results/metrics/ablations/compare_wis_vs_naive_rw_test.csv
+73 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,reference,metric,H,diff,lo,hi,dm_t,dm_p,lag,n,rel_diff | |
| 2 | +ewma,naive_rw,wis,5,-2.796725263586676e-05,-2.9485265627747615e-05,-2.6493379650781124e-05,-54.478606072266835,0.0,240,986468,-0.037481367058207905 | |
| 3 | +ewma,naive_rw,wis,15,-4.704864071217601e-05,-4.9806302857649485e-05,-4.445617178148345e-05,-50.40852718615188,0.0,240,986468,-0.03746107067998293 | |
| 4 | +ewma,naive_rw,wis,30,-6.241793953245374e-05,-6.63780847160013e-05,-5.83734779788644e-05,-34.828776206675634,0.0,480,986468,-0.03602808730942283 | |
| 5 | +ewma,naive_rw,wis,60,-8.09211980517845e-05,-8.731144183235829e-05,-7.415514249201357e-05,-23.32132380050581,0.0,960,986468,-0.034018872881523554 | |
| 6 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.1575230432057084e-05,-3.3115942671981074e-05,-3.006313295783148e-05,-64.80126530805701,0.0,240,986468,-0.042316734402923224 | |
| 7 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.3306438133434116e-05,-5.606425685241812e-05,-5.057413455380484e-05,-63.111949579253825,0.0,240,986468,-0.04244365440504466 | |
| 8 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.383435674974235e-05,-7.793342961002786e-05,-6.968132643053386e-05,-47.8547141032365,0.0,480,986468,-0.04261772611112363 | |
| 9 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00010596519056122935,-0.00011245869863057173,-9.920552021450972e-05,-37.34125962370333,0.0,960,986468,-0.044547243915766345 | |
| 10 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.1443598687159205e-05,-3.2982746772914025e-05,-2.9959008784425873e-05,-65.23188270334026,0.0,240,986468,-0.04214032316184542 | |
| 11 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.28832968773186e-05,-5.562180331660722e-05,-5.018767495881065e-05,-63.18579546620868,0.0,240,986468,-0.04210674085636359 | |
| 12 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.323577926216246e-05,-7.719275690660288e-05,-6.921767272719188e-05,-48.31724290483174,0.0,480,986468,-0.04227222284482676 | |
| 13 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00010455922930893787,-0.00011084288375228117,-9.802165261178258e-05,-37.62113865836558,0.0,960,986468,-0.04395618473387628 | |
| 14 | +mrpt_small_b4k,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.23217055753295e-05,-3.389083630310559e-05,-3.0808488634439945e-05,-64.69730127242045,0.0,240,986468,-0.043317151183545434 | |
| 15 | +mrpt_small_b4k,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.4637242912927266e-05,-5.747233032499928e-05,-5.188201768159755e-05,-62.88475856761505,0.0,240,986468,-0.04350326784235593 | |
| 16 | +mrpt_small_b4k,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.570168827702454e-05,-7.993682700217971e-05,-7.151796650505814e-05,-47.58481799104851,0.0,480,986468,-0.043695563409254574 | |
| 17 | +mrpt_small_b4k,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00010836861016180281,-0.00011511078294067182,-0.00010131948645421038,-36.72267956759967,0.0,960,986468,-0.045557629671802095 | |
| 18 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.183166526125607e-05,-3.3405594439841104e-05,-3.0324000758945766e-05,-65.61172782414862,0.0,240,986468,-0.042660405198365954 | |
| 19 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.3713164231897076e-05,-5.652642720459933e-05,-5.0929032146258684e-05,-64.0470486307616,0.0,240,986468,-0.04276749787621154 | |
| 20 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.405859946533704e-05,-7.817038889596058e-05,-6.994263213051378e-05,-48.34157225913274,0.0,480,986468,-0.0427471606326164 | |
| 21 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00010584271472058294,-0.00011244307295759718,-9.9117558137013e-05,-37.27750705056662,0.0,960,986468,-0.04449575567591921 | |
| 22 | +mrpt_small_copula,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.1902558868416904e-05,-3.3457206216849235e-05,-3.0357471033085215e-05,-65.80556650863721,0.0,240,986468,-0.042755415936341266 | |
| 23 | +mrpt_small_copula,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.358758220443518e-05,-5.636891914516955e-05,-5.080394025595819e-05,-63.82615026124717,0.0,240,986468,-0.042667506949041825 | |
| 24 | +mrpt_small_copula,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.351071929961143e-05,-7.766293938990274e-05,-6.936373291184373e-05,-47.76146496270836,0.0,480,986468,-0.04243092022811538 | |
| 25 | +mrpt_small_copula,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00010396384883046919,-0.00011064619118673181,-9.708439507681269e-05,-36.47338258098388,0.0,960,986468,-0.04370588971476145 | |
| 26 | +mrpt_small_cross,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.1942558241181925e-05,-3.351792062722038e-05,-3.044249686405257e-05,-64.95159726757376,0.0,240,986468,-0.042809022602402595 | |
| 27 | +mrpt_small_cross,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.410304031621038e-05,-5.695162913094711e-05,-5.1397861868403044e-05,-63.51231703205074,0.0,240,986468,-0.043077925028405885 | |
| 28 | +mrpt_small_cross,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.486811989318987e-05,-7.905966285496752e-05,-7.069167251326433e-05,-48.07851627407367,0.0,480,986468,-0.04321442169364964 | |
| 29 | +mrpt_small_cross,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.0001070474705400264,-0.00011368333006058225,-0.00010024872907216215,-37.14454412348745,0.0,960,986468,-0.0450022290853798 | |
| 30 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,naive_rw,wis,5,,,,,,240,986468, | |
| 31 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,naive_rw,wis,15,,,,,,240,986468, | |
| 32 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,naive_rw,wis,30,,,,,,480,986468, | |
| 33 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,naive_rw,wis,60,,,,,,960,986468, | |
| 34 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.236751947587548e-05,-3.392986625934793e-05,-3.08904058128532e-05,-67.56088402229614,0.0,240,986468,-0.04337855040802735 | |
| 35 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.54892268108826e-05,-5.827695198001727e-05,-5.28332125250179e-05,-66.27763005563507,0.0,240,986468,-0.04418163449729847 | |
| 36 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.74924476151624e-05,-8.153121156523266e-05,-7.360165608807799e-05,-50.59082498469829,0.0,480,986468,-0.044729202684563395 | |
| 37 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00011157679692779214,-0.00011825690026039271,-0.0001049450957140067,-38.76117442761919,0.0,960,986468,-0.046906335578288244 | |
| 38 | +mrpt_small_noregime,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.213231671820995e-05,-3.3693785249553875e-05,-3.0611823560195174e-05,-64.54957819625957,0.0,240,986468,-0.043063334572995396 | |
| 39 | +mrpt_small_noregime,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.438036163184143e-05,-5.7187099614218004e-05,-5.16522166021916e-05,-62.9230587891925,0.0,240,986468,-0.0432987338179621 | |
| 40 | +mrpt_small_noregime,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.53650013159778e-05,-7.948849509338855e-05,-7.115146822218602e-05,-48.16945453537748,0.0,480,986468,-0.04350122525391977 | |
| 41 | +mrpt_small_noregime,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00010756948657116847,-0.0001140210940683109,-0.00010095501330095875,-37.85270262484083,0.0,960,986468,-0.04522168205237832 | |
| 42 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.175572707162857e-05,-3.3330407681668556e-05,-3.0262006340182474e-05,-65.18429445696839,0.0,240,986468,-0.04255863377318442 | |
| 43 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.352123990138486e-05,-5.624770134362341e-05,-5.076244727489068e-05,-63.30884814796213,0.0,240,986468,-0.04261468387772623 | |
| 44 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.37397798581764e-05,-7.788653532945422e-05,-6.963950627960086e-05,-47.86347061136217,0.0,480,986468,-0.04256313564350622 | |
| 45 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.0001051125783125184,-0.00011162971052146714,-9.83290887305523e-05,-37.04562881686012,0.0,960,986468,-0.04418880992807914 | |
| 46 | +mrpt_small_returns_only,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.088853554181957e-05,-3.22995939983133e-05,-2.9522653329425858e-05,-67.92311327631396,0.0,240,986468,-0.041396434380139444 | |
| 47 | +mrpt_small_returns_only,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.197340247684736e-05,-5.442711205878555e-05,-4.956174065542844e-05,-66.07227124033936,0.0,240,986468,-0.04138226469868041 | |
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| 50 | +mrpt_small_seed2,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.2257486708391756e-05,-3.3745717345422514e-05,-3.0826923092703566e-05,-68.36014709222012,0.0,240,986468,-0.04323108585009652 | |
| 51 | +mrpt_small_seed2,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.498704384687415e-05,-5.777368248634144e-05,-5.225731635472249e-05,-66.99659455461386,0.0,240,986468,-0.0437817863566457 | |
| 52 | +mrpt_small_seed2,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.602909067128397e-05,-8.02716379286968e-05,-7.187785120574512e-05,-50.0641157110684,0.0,480,986468,-0.04388454244531455 | |
| 53 | +mrpt_small_seed2,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00010719934963034472,-0.00011416262940327301,-9.98847140974706e-05,-36.946727764617684,0.0,960,986468,-0.04506607830648987 | |
| 54 | +mrpt_small_seed3,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.243990351408759e-05,-3.402549812189252e-05,-3.095140806343241e-05,-68.9005638499871,0.0,240,986468,-0.04347555860331587 | |
| 55 | +mrpt_small_seed3,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.464489016843675e-05,-5.741670446082706e-05,-5.212437285047516e-05,-65.80501466142621,0.0,240,986468,-0.04350935674045825 | |
| 56 | +mrpt_small_seed3,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.521105326083323e-05,-7.922389324875714e-05,-7.135348316867669e-05,-49.05275291963855,0.0,480,986468,-0.04341236532016658 | |
| 57 | +mrpt_small_seed3,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00010467404697471715,-0.00011144492724346098,-9.821194589721435e-05,-35.33414163657449,0.0,960,986468,-0.04400445351474874 | |
| 58 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.1354376770183674e-05,-3.290910706677214e-05,-2.9824571667116603e-05,-64.34101281842456,0.0,240,986468,-0.04202074904910229 | |
| 59 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.2978058363364536e-05,-5.56899762171655e-05,-5.0281123824897806e-05,-62.63349584246549,0.0,240,986468,-0.04218219185075519 | |
| 60 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.29036404176036e-05,-7.703028419588658e-05,-6.874238420578859e-05,-47.23248312961676,0.0,480,986468,-0.042080509895308524 | |
| 61 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00010332194529250562,-0.00010970896482145754,-9.655369954201958e-05,-36.12146552826993,0.0,960,986468,-0.043436036630700475 | |
| 62 | +mrpt_small_ticker,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.198719890634321e-05,-3.353246770934723e-05,-3.052640524932563e-05,-68.31995532201013,0.0,240,986468,-0.04286884947129164 | |
| 63 | +mrpt_small_ticker,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.306147474721524e-05,-5.57516277173491e-05,-5.0470253477970536e-05,-65.94438576692869,0.0,240,986468,-0.042248609647401354 | |
| 64 | +mrpt_small_ticker,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.233094860946647e-05,-7.628223801626331e-05,-6.83991693115202e-05,-49.9508580771332,0.0,480,986468,-0.04174994803089088 | |
| 65 | +mrpt_small_ticker,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00010105183678096249,-0.00010724015052078309,-9.48165795772086e-05,-38.387672238919144,0.0,960,986468,-0.042481694199536395 | |
| 66 | +mrpt_small_time_only,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.078876540669877e-05,-3.2200369164740366e-05,-2.9421929355817212e-05,-68.00430270248216,0.0,240,986468,-0.041262723675530806 | |
| 67 | +mrpt_small_time_only,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.175515525329069e-05,-5.4226974649921465e-05,-4.9340827905720696e-05,-66.00477172986344,0.0,240,986468,-0.04120849188519186 | |
| 68 | +mrpt_small_time_only,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.139628768971743e-05,-7.504461626491914e-05,-6.77761393975939e-05,-50.17511992165581,0.0,480,986468,-0.04121045497050373 | |
| 69 | +mrpt_small_time_only,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.0001014414601683834,-0.00010755336969823309,-9.546238746424049e-05,-38.64427861542293,0.0,960,986468,-0.042645489951545136 | |
| 70 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,wis,5,-2.2379732745039622e-05,-2.401591432835747e-05,-2.0796219511419453e-05,-46.42231401286675,0.0,240,986468,-0.02999304181225408 | |
| 71 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,wis,15,-4.024260833393787e-05,-4.288741230164927e-05,-3.7615372077247097e-05,-47.78656771235647,0.0,240,986468,-0.03204197129449424 | |
| 72 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,wis,30,-5.7664307846772666e-05,-6.182345932877145e-05,-5.357586546560631e-05,-37.78438915002287,0.0,480,986468,-0.03328425663043175 | |
| 73 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,wis,60,-8.409062511910129e-05,-9.099089318615566e-05,-7.716459018856633e-05,-29.05677101777989,0.0,960,986468,-0.03535128440169545 | |
added
results/metrics/ablations/leaderboard_test.csv
+77 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,H,n,n_days,crps,crps_lo,crps_hi,crps_scaled,crps_scaled_lo,crps_scaled_hi,wis,wis_lo,wis_hi,qloss,qloss_lo,qloss_hi,mae,mae_lo,mae_hi,mse,mse_lo,mse_hi,qlike,qlike_lo,qlike_hi,brier_tail,brier_tail_lo,brier_tail_hi,sharpness,sharpness_lo,sharpness_hi,logscore,logscore_lo,logscore_hi,crps_closed,crps_closed_lo,crps_closed_hi,dir_acc,tail_rate,cov_50,cov_80,cov_95,pit_ks,pit_chi2_p,pit_var | |
| 2 | +ewma,5,986468,251,0.000796645552578879,0.0007816517912433669,0.0008123759927673219,0.45471933069577747,0.44923632497975385,0.46061765763555307,0.00071819690387513,0.0007046920715936411,0.0007324427878945798,0.0003107900344967134,0.0003049623191074593,0.00031693784321459493,0.001096402575271468,0.0010753498363486097,0.001118132951960418,3.670868498189485e-06,3.4672844775894563e-06,3.891548423118688e-06,-12.429086071259515,-12.460321412566701,-12.392716463392505,0.013827865779731325,0.012902450597842752,0.01474608194130221,0.0053068245472642885,0.005220677202521467,0.0053994866172430095,-5.380004194620441,-5.39827382194638,-5.361053952564113,0.0007965969482259206,0.0007815631800662043,0.0008123031067412148,0.0,0.014007550168885356,0.5355733789641428,0.8343240733607172,0.9687673599143611,0.022629616364766125,0.0,0.07584147491811352 | |
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| 6 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,5,986468,251,0.0007937646949709999,0.0007788193313186244,0.0008094256285996854,0.4536711927156429,0.44818518736763274,0.4596012147033375,0.0007145889260789396,0.0007011328767756437,0.0007287868231792077,0.0003082730359382951,0.0003024323105168799,0.0003143459257847961,0.001096907245711414,0.0010758069853433845,0.0011188316117970918,3.6641409681292146e-06,3.4644015339667985e-06,3.88181454460852e-06,-12.468962155265693,-12.500884171625069,-12.431799525973723,0.013313209475624145,0.012374670559922906,0.014251243424494449,0.004859739448875189,0.004784370748276309,0.004945007433819794,,,,,,,0.49960641001961353,0.014007550168885356,0.5493802130428965,0.8304547131787346,0.9565510487922568,0.029832976878465867,0.0,0.07534203264402195 | |
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| 8 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,30,986468,251,0.0018425189076771464,0.0018017787087604672,0.0018842323327038835,0.43156067180482666,0.42532044665152957,0.43844150738029714,0.0016586456107929388,0.0016218265808541586,0.0016965588130250962,0.0007162867867172403,0.0007003936023444825,0.0007327576393385318,0.00254677698870482,0.002489016326688707,0.0026056585383585095,1.9187778846405536e-05,1.780752222014918e-05,2.0593875021262846e-05,-10.728138513692892,-10.766982306361426,-10.682829506805653,0.00951113158257541,0.008483332225513718,0.010758321815598515,0.011704441159963608,0.011524381540789082,0.011907720227396763,,,,,,,0.5016829113631687,0.009812786628659014,0.5730819448780903,0.8478582173978274,0.9605826037945479,0.03867593069971609,0.0,0.07124520340128829 | |
| 9 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,60,986468,251,0.00252425367555673,0.002462043206017661,0.0025913638871799976,0.41912268964929345,0.4110349638818848,0.4288917494822828,0.0022727496579173253,0.0022160565053161666,0.0023342325221470317,0.0009820269417867699,0.0009573095880816389,0.001009685931004365,0.0034845227072419793,0.0033970444602905163,0.003579049827826209,3.529890972236677e-05,3.2450508682945846e-05,3.807384256446556e-05,-10.069904099851962,-10.109884101498446,-10.018684842236917,0.00797506923691392,0.006571772612934552,0.009827814032552113,0.016198942437767982,0.015949545013584192,0.016475906486576798,,,,,,,0.5018701497056139,0.00818171496693253,0.5790233438895129,0.8523175612386819,0.9616530896085833,0.04145528547812016,0.0,0.07018431483507487 | |
| 10 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,5,986468,251,0.0007938935722718493,0.0007789551807935639,0.0008095874433696976,0.45380421547144867,0.44832008495508163,0.4597082807348337,0.0007147205578238374,0.0007012900596251244,0.0007289129045169553,0.0003083206913817611,0.0003025162665155825,0.000314386889927178,0.001096944860016086,0.0010758118165736525,0.0011188713534032104,3.663414153924978e-06,3.463635895635703e-06,3.880005942983145e-06,-12.467935998089928,-12.499742382015741,-12.43075082425596,0.013317597377715243,0.012379738815514987,0.014261943577030966,0.0048756166361272335,0.004798389670824007,0.004961471167415679,,,,,,,0.500346315206206,0.014007550168885356,0.550492261279636,0.8310609163196373,0.9565469939217491,0.030336633481622632,0.0,0.07519188112378682 | |
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| 12 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,30,986468,251,0.001843145770809539,0.001802128776367684,0.001884925883363593,0.43179809243971773,0.4255554105060243,0.43864941451280326,0.0016592441882805188,0.001622330386129816,0.0016972241914820173,0.0007166576550471639,0.000700739265404687,0.0007331498650560026,0.0025468765229688856,0.002488861115671613,0.0026059472684751748,1.9188292035869943e-05,1.7810819965812043e-05,2.0588538312724624e-05,-10.72646993268545,-10.765469679110934,-10.681158070653197,0.009504959740204447,0.008471404526676513,0.010758312792852203,0.011741864494979382,0.011560180053077308,0.011943708766781606,,,,,,,0.5010708481537318,0.009812786628659014,0.5741017448107795,0.8483083080241832,0.9606626874870751,0.03929496223867235,0.0,0.07111473520555242 | |
| 13 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,60,986468,251,0.0025256953757613293,0.002463639591324054,0.0025929854598618113,0.4194768694600836,0.41134735066386324,0.4292759179408643,0.0022741556191696165,0.00221778316592771,0.0023359231115743957,0.00098284765855259,0.0009581078150561056,0.0010106741968783069,0.0034853678891931606,0.0033973384949384077,0.00357993641337613,3.530776470196423e-05,3.2466394282816286e-05,3.808283734200861e-05,-10.067686761993288,-10.107621213275038,-10.016680235675333,0.007976147249581334,0.006555787513334972,0.0098352373194913,0.016273258253932,0.01602581809158095,0.016551895070677235,,,,,,,0.5016370962791564,0.00818171496693253,0.581023408767441,0.8534326506283022,0.961700734337049,0.043262216127332054,0.0,0.06986741772943147 | |
| 14 | +mrpt_small_b4k,5,986468,251,0.0007929325391468108,0.0007780397794063055,0.0008086396229042557,0.4532826293391077,0.44778606270799415,0.4591696706571187,0.0007138424509356672,0.0007004360463171515,0.0007280939959446451,0.0003078409910176424,0.00030204553841484697,0.0003139480143255769,0.0010965066492481077,0.0010753656167827672,0.0011184544867592404,3.664890203974281e-06,3.4650260505507003e-06,3.88271552942523e-06,-12.467694301005631,-12.500274906360778,-12.430154443334098,0.013299738917025185,0.012372194203646736,0.014238058813254873,0.0048108287155628204,0.00473609921500089,0.004895807072950868,,,,,,,0.4996767724742078,0.014007550168885356,0.5446603437719216,0.8267586987109566,0.9544709002218014,0.027051718961226268,0.0,0.07625192077202543 | |
| 15 | +mrpt_small_b4k,15,986468,251,0.0013346211771743896,0.0013076612571038398,0.001363204576742159,0.44147522064599426,0.4352160963447418,0.447966853716923,0.001201296980486516,0.0011770103339295303,0.0012273041570840834,0.0005183010227677692,0.0005078622444535344,0.0005297053524613613,0.0018486438956482457,0.001810340235692997,0.0018893942744006064,1.0158403053455137e-05,9.52561337847919e-06,1.0796489111703263e-05,-11.398390310050395,-11.436986012130939,-11.354005322117418,0.011153259583686445,0.010148414573015978,0.01237007528899972,0.008304272778332233,0.008176226034075976,0.008449049307865743,,,,,,,0.5009319728977385,0.0116019982401862,0.5610906790691639,0.8394960606933017,0.9576975634283119,0.0324659717848268,0.0,0.07327580604575652 | |
| 16 | +mrpt_small_b4k,30,986468,251,0.001840451532239021,0.001799480711960995,0.0018823814252532454,0.4312074330391643,0.42491204678981376,0.43811052631608655,0.0016567782792656566,0.0016197838514493065,0.0016949211998614163,0.0007152447048122898,0.0006992914744061766,0.0007318560812258417,0.002546407573127022,0.0024885399258766814,0.0026054103834271024,1.918175534677905e-05,1.780625382468772e-05,2.0574674733529096e-05,-10.726196972072533,-10.7650841462555,-10.67875308071945,0.009497870179265826,0.008470787425330136,0.010734875041471486,0.011598778888583183,0.011420835693129234,0.011796188416874501,,,,,,,0.5017354039197242,0.009812786628659014,0.5691831868849269,0.8449691221610838,0.9591471796348183,0.03716378449714308,0.0,0.07195515731610638 | |
| 17 | +mrpt_small_b4k,60,986468,251,0.002521674349502472,0.002459204974704087,0.002588961292759721,0.4188495913333176,0.4106854074727629,0.4286295794935505,0.002270346238316752,0.002213405665519033,0.0023323995684242102,0.000980626682610606,0.0009555827873462638,0.0010084040353192476,0.003485226242202073,0.003397195793170355,0.0035802377733416446,3.5308579480041176e-05,3.245711854900305e-05,3.807639526819499e-05,-10.068455446739636,-10.109019855281216,-10.015958752814088,0.007952693599792391,0.006569084959451743,0.009755626629987784,0.016079921275377274,0.01583996215701287,0.01635129169109991,,,,,,,0.5023830753272371,0.00818171496693253,0.5765377082682864,0.8502749202204227,0.9608117039782335,0.0419764444335059,0.0,0.07064354902811541 | |
| 18 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,5,986468,251,0.0007935212471648833,0.0007785782996956145,0.0008092091640658978,0.4534601395019213,0.44797576888447344,0.45933511696145396,0.0007143324912497407,0.0007008865885005288,0.0007285415740528657,0.00030809968666368104,0.0003023035185948183,0.00031418068822860806,0.0010968628177248367,0.001075800278110225,0.001118854370806328,3.66907527784986e-06,3.4683525687050143e-06,3.889221700270726e-06,-12.470630200494867,-12.502470848168356,-12.433710354689977,0.013292123996926407,0.012363458579580851,0.014229688193446619,0.004869440104812384,0.004792270479573143,0.004955385557189459,,,,,,,0.5003716017133257,0.014007550168885356,0.5497157535774095,0.8311724252585994,0.9566797909308766,0.030253901258235683,0.0,0.07524774965347675 | |
| 19 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,15,986468,251,0.0013356933497397968,0.0013089194917504092,0.0013643269616405726,0.4416458269386386,0.4353718690016199,0.4481043270931139,0.0012022210591675461,0.0011780359438346981,0.0012282746219189667,0.0005187882986701101,0.0005083714382020144,0.0005302140688584764,0.001848466015382467,0.0018102869037425705,0.001889288360868346,1.0164355193005563e-05,9.525872484559392e-06,1.0802313119225917e-05,-11.400662941416618,-11.43839406931821,-11.35733827211574,0.011132872961920712,0.010125381756532971,0.012349402111198823,0.008408251218497753,0.008275444697510478,0.008554707265215955,,,,,,,0.501169357199504,0.0116019982401862,0.5662586115312408,0.8441196267897185,0.9598162332685906,0.03577709605214352,0.0,0.0722737198556519 | |
| 20 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,30,986468,251,0.0018423467605104824,0.0018015492625700522,0.001884062120943529,0.4314316352970502,0.4251817701325262,0.4383162587771362,0.0016584213680773442,0.0016216019683520477,0.001696311026866187,0.0007161449105835012,0.0007003019188785527,0.0007326175235141734,0.0025466735672480764,0.0024886386766943894,0.0026056648085030477,1.9182978367348935e-05,1.7813967196003406e-05,2.058430075836925e-05,-10.728563387014969,-10.767360120617118,-10.682710281785157,0.009482697664800076,0.008451977438153,0.01071173027436576,0.011746558360755444,0.011562818133957624,0.011949268514291525,,,,,,,0.5014435453052757,0.009812786628659014,0.574668412964232,0.8493352039802609,0.9611766423239274,0.040324332359599424,0.0,0.07093744037148571 | |
| 21 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,60,986468,251,0.002524449144268299,0.0024622129399181434,0.0025914118813191345,0.41911103080778045,0.4109756289079967,0.42883563369368105,0.002272872133757972,0.002216099062612877,0.0023344008607344077,0.0009821311933145085,0.0009572367244882828,0.0010096861802862012,0.003484804954986766,0.003396855392556918,0.003579268850754887,3.530616698488509e-05,3.245635536379864e-05,3.80634604197276e-05,-10.070230048643685,-10.109906823645277,-10.019434410865491,0.007950365242460981,0.006563214196613111,0.009763127445187482,0.016275295987725258,0.01602562397895887,0.016555642682061347,,,,,,,0.5022218106794651,0.00818171496693253,0.5815951455090281,0.8546268099928229,0.9624954889565601,0.04364200495769688,0.0,0.06968221792784268 | |
| 22 | +mrpt_small_copula,5,986468,251,0.000793421738410466,0.0007785443877655753,0.0008090049609244602,0.4534181087278907,0.44794102737250907,0.4592742345455166,0.0007142615976425796,0.0007008565391222244,0.0007283724181341564,0.0003080798498552848,0.00030230131074980587,0.0003141250164097734,0.0010966582387633463,0.0010757376385079325,0.0011186010528410743,3.664301475274909e-06,3.4635471412254177e-06,3.8845125563423445e-06,-12.470604529521442,-12.502513674703806,-12.43350061699887,0.013287146668721135,0.012354556867599314,0.014225627498209128,0.004869785159826279,0.004792655988223884,0.004955692838955739,,,,,,,0.5002011926436054,0.014007550168885356,0.5500340609122648,0.8310872729779375,0.956674722342742,0.030448727305586565,0.0,0.0752374718128815 | |
| 23 | +mrpt_small_copula,15,986468,251,0.0013358159460887349,0.001308793355377582,0.0013643308983696037,0.44168308796418315,0.4354597122257669,0.4481423056323564,0.001202346641195008,0.0011780240344245669,0.0012283114043489438,0.0005189019502536811,0.0005084421675484604,0.0005302983433763702,0.0018485273401913347,0.0018100019736179036,0.0018890925552841095,1.0161662329345062e-05,9.53073992521772e-06,1.0811232623312083e-05,-11.400882607589406,-11.43844373505699,-11.357768388743922,0.011145669651727173,0.010131807555684285,0.012370352990891564,0.008417036384344101,0.00828342850466888,0.008564192911276837,,,,,,,0.5008681026820168,0.0116019982401862,0.5669357749060284,0.8441013798724337,0.9598841523495947,0.03578666291654509,0.0,0.0722202515895785 | |
| 24 | +mrpt_small_copula,30,986468,251,0.0018429524732136407,0.0018019640378127795,0.0018846374350168361,0.43161843635082864,0.4254205012037372,0.4385129370615536,0.00165896924824307,0.0016218457365461169,0.0016968306037522447,0.0007164014113988776,0.0007004047200659901,0.0007327827730814787,0.0025465102212247066,0.0024885493770439907,0.0026052905055069958,1.917998165533716e-05,1.7815308507842375e-05,2.054482200634533e-05,-10.72864030347803,-10.767415160209218,-10.682836080233919,0.009505146923164258,0.008474645031108202,0.010738220359091357,0.011784966103732586,0.01159837281519141,0.01199018993892179,,,,,,,0.5014309470917024,0.009812786628659014,0.5756882128969212,0.849864364581517,0.9618081884055033,0.04072799855219833,0.0,0.07075193215451077 | |
| 25 | +mrpt_small_copula,60,986468,251,0.0025265633061819777,0.002464178663191364,0.002594027166173893,0.41939959647295366,0.4113040140690907,0.4290871891411348,0.0022747509996480855,0.002218130915968769,0.002336570721720546,0.0009831118484081728,0.0009582881829763184,0.0010102434263025875,0.0034853845248014443,0.0033978467258228167,0.0035800687187901763,3.530699236645524e-05,3.247756336627752e-05,3.8016705298132855e-05,-10.07026086196541,-10.109951269095587,-10.019463940033337,0.007985561341067322,0.006616895788455048,0.009794716133521576,0.016410626471042633,0.01615321707439189,0.01669415516984719,,,,,,,0.5021843556644988,0.00818171496693253,0.5847427387406383,0.857046553968299,0.9635639473353419,0.04517426417595338,0.0,0.06914821830844402 | |
| 26 | +mrpt_small_cross,5,986468,251,0.0007933300842630625,0.0007783873148751981,0.0008090214051153302,0.45350059489508143,0.4479576761323769,0.4594479928002957,0.0007142215982698147,0.0007007645748900267,0.000728412675546624,0.0003080597447194018,0.00030222749651546293,0.00031411588855195094,0.0010968230658528332,0.0010757683899200955,0.0011187834063135082,3.6669794371767856e-06,3.4656316799039656e-06,3.88579593700074e-06,-12.465890922994026,-12.498211358252343,-12.428648468283589,0.013337701932551285,0.012402875328504852,0.014271485021352419,0.004826257470995188,0.004751180206051743,0.004911507030919033,,,,,,,0.5002715550981996,0.014007550168885356,0.5470223058426629,0.8285164850760491,0.9554126438972171,0.02874238015251307,0.0,0.07581199405584277 | |
| 27 | +mrpt_small_cross,15,986468,251,0.0013351936403848868,0.0013083916859821987,0.0013637913562638527,0.441593650203091,0.43532746469663974,0.44807097822149716,0.0012018311830832328,0.001177677856220303,0.0012278792287087814,0.0005185988610579725,0.0005082210104158248,0.000530042552931401,0.001848611617559647,0.0018104854964341984,0.0018892384810822685,1.0168257342449115e-05,9.529987813052569e-06,1.0801852650727117e-05,-11.397715704777129,-11.436088979752657,-11.35406261654846,0.01117042564989437,0.010149707736309677,0.012405615470135509,0.008324672468006611,0.008196009215067131,0.008469225961764835,,,,,,,0.5005487516034085,0.0116019982401862,0.5629630155260992,0.840949731770316,0.9583980423085189,0.03344008810019694,0.0,0.07295392624190904 | |
| 28 | +mrpt_small_cross,30,986468,251,0.001841317610199633,0.0018004258668104013,0.0018831332632112871,0.4313395292272935,0.42510105023486805,0.43823535311608824,0.0016576118476494914,0.0016207180045372603,0.0016956490280029075,0.0007156847384919454,0.0006997861977631275,0.0007322467874915638,0.002547219492850158,0.002489139720634968,0.0026063188231381343,1.9190570606384e-05,1.7820521495804055e-05,2.059220804847248e-05,-10.725860781085165,-10.764909561100406,-10.679414610166251,0.009507611042628854,0.008476470001487012,0.010759541119550221,0.011633060872554779,0.01145283560196049,0.011835323311794878,,,,,,,0.5008377812026255,0.009812786628659014,0.5709744259317079,0.8460396079751193,0.9597726434106327,0.03834430252467602,0.0,0.07165362533240123 | |
| 29 | +mrpt_small_cross,60,986468,251,0.0025229804576219683,0.002460893761382644,0.0025899006849196817,0.41900137971487583,0.41089136564488615,0.4288238978336464,0.0022716673779385283,0.002215029855339016,0.0023332872739589786,0.0009814104695577862,0.0009566250122747574,0.0010091873506016052,0.003485357279014247,0.003397624331651996,0.0035802844511820236,3.531188109550823e-05,3.246290209022766e-05,3.807847596932508e-05,-10.067434316064606,-10.10815258627257,-10.01529184994084,0.007979012370396202,0.006557373115734499,0.009825964062407488,0.016106978058815002,0.015860568150195216,0.016386678027115548,,,,,,,0.5016558237866396,0.00818171496693253,0.5776254272819797,0.8507462989169441,0.9607610180968871,0.041630354691574833,0.0,0.07051144527608726 | |
| 30 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,5,986468,251,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.014007550168885356,0.012980084135262157,0.015055424081889314,,,,,,,,,,0.0,0.014007550168885356,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.9950248761956605,0.0,2.0639940784962113e-06 | |
| 31 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,15,986468,251,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.0116019982401862,0.010479603543171775,0.01293865526825326,,,,,,,,,,0.0,0.0116019982401862,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.9950248761956605,0.0,2.0639940784962113e-06 | |
| 32 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,30,986468,251,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.009812786628659014,0.008663636143854755,0.011168090552520722,,,,,,,,,,0.0,0.009812786628659014,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.9950248761956605,0.0,2.0639940784962113e-06 | |
| 33 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,60,986468,251,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.00818171496693253,0.0066735587789218224,0.010198649154628954,,,,,,,,,,0.0,0.00818171496693253,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.9950248761956605,0.0,2.0639940784962113e-06 | |
| 34 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,5,986468,251,0.0007927230299872562,0.000777814832022399,0.0008084361812380203,0.45313179238766305,0.44759688853984037,0.45911860985663266,0.0007137966370351212,0.0007003581699000887,0.0007280271775643527,0.0003078762606063289,0.00030205381788067745,0.0003139592416895209,0.0010960905310055126,0.0010750217977508955,0.0011180522623737957,3.6630316160916484e-06,3.4629696491872854e-06,3.880742070465931e-06,-12.460934936020529,-12.493423107951818,-12.423835590044936,0.013378376211899424,0.012413772786819212,0.014346022961311385,0.004684180486947298,0.004612019028520076,0.004762808807253712,,,,,,,0.49984608213057513,0.014007550168885356,0.5357548344193628,0.8189348260663296,0.95102020541974,0.020799273804214202,0.0,0.07798188788574001 | |
| 35 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,15,986468,251,0.0013334948025463455,0.001306468990061828,0.0013620196040009364,0.4410298928014418,0.4346612003699495,0.4476186101758133,0.0012004449965885603,0.001176074814479668,0.0012264515631861526,0.0005178880712317441,0.0005073801586704635,0.0005293327418341259,0.0018481720032836413,0.0018100142719772183,0.0018888809304560782,1.0156109990633787e-05,9.521301166775215e-06,1.0793428124813089e-05,-11.393158779440517,-11.432438820764975,-11.34821254572273,0.011179423584951565,0.010135164735860963,0.012436994192701778,0.008098254911601543,0.00797467101839498,0.00823371027934691,,,,,,,0.49972695482778995,0.0116019982401862,0.55207467449527,0.8315454733453087,0.9543512815418239,0.028923612574030727,0.0,0.07502218331478289 | |
| 36 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,30,986468,251,0.0018382979176620818,0.0017973306451287883,0.001880366651546556,0.43063762847515336,0.42433163522241396,0.43758255910868743,0.0016549875199275187,0.001617916297130619,0.00169329527220034,0.0007143425752965754,0.0006980824805318663,0.0007310433502672692,0.0025458361531820075,0.0024878898669005146,0.0026044528635427266,1.9172584303834672e-05,1.7802745325368853e-05,2.056811977205612e-05,-10.721712437671759,-10.760994230683094,-10.672815656828629,0.009524725257180162,0.008448312777268853,0.010816142118806785,0.011338342912495136,0.011164690145271244,0.011527502246654388,,,,,,,0.49973438766382927,0.009812786628659014,0.5602138133218716,0.8374321316048772,0.9560076961442237,0.03483792570362054,0.0,0.07362177206635306 | |
| 37 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,60,986468,251,0.0025178327777727267,0.002454612995786129,0.0025847308419929033,0.4181686094495514,0.4099938217603262,0.4280794131375762,0.002267138051550762,0.0022096637450949156,0.0023288955967129305,0.0009790009021555129,0.0009539916450832271,0.001006997305907496,0.003484048675913178,0.003396322427569266,0.003577013085989211,3.5275930886954987e-05,3.243724971828651e-05,3.802666166371655e-05,-10.063598771141782,-10.10545971697862,-10.00904993579267,0.0080060820776751,0.006544068691351027,0.009941781798646231,0.015720199793577194,0.015479674807464752,0.01598223652159401,,,,,,,0.4996603038225964,0.00818171496693253,0.5668354168609625,0.8423283877429374,0.9572383493433138,0.04021547741795156,0.0,0.0724494457362164 | |
| 38 | +mrpt_small_noregime,5,986468,251,0.0007931123451010379,0.0007781871983801765,0.0008088301595954728,0.4533566454052614,0.4478663369922831,0.45929747794066555,0.0007140318397927867,0.0007005851069956214,0.0007282915290020654,0.0003079505816094569,0.00030213690963533146,0.0003140677271016512,0.001096544577864229,0.0010754198951102789,0.0011184793147046288,3.664828327318937e-06,3.464569427989399e-06,3.882466076504984e-06,-12.467406558538249,-12.499686429249984,-12.430262509085495,0.013316836582636235,0.012385545029310495,0.01425520927602873,0.004806519951671362,0.004729004768323368,0.004892625873121162,,,,,,,0.499684468367679,0.014007550168885356,0.5438818086344412,0.8259761087029686,0.954140428275423,0.026551684233574013,0.0,0.07642116937559917 | |
| 39 | +mrpt_small_noregime,15,986468,251,0.0013348755837369014,0.0013078033592733437,0.0013634524982294271,0.4414461056333445,0.4351585333786427,0.4479874499533213,0.001201553861767602,0.0011771396680375719,0.0012275706288338946,0.0005184430146351654,0.0005079827591211113,0.000529862686700857,0.001848650256259221,0.0018102403464538765,0.001889419200375396,1.0156910633692966e-05,9.526430252207763e-06,1.0796659604796316e-05,-11.39864555069902,-11.437174925278198,-11.354594810075367,0.011162990994132602,0.01014808710939365,0.012391088706979645,0.008294228464365005,0.008162904532889823,0.008441505132202144,,,,,,,0.5004667848265657,0.0116019982401862,0.5596096376162227,0.8381042263915301,0.957080209393513,0.031036647342034818,0.0,0.07359171007084278 | |
| 40 | +mrpt_small_noregime,30,986468,251,0.001840825483783109,0.0017997909097020122,0.001882928347006661,0.43116704627594943,0.4248519011077184,0.4380417158660668,0.0016571149662267036,0.001620067057769466,0.0016954140628661675,0.0007154391028756508,0.0006994475337810923,0.0007320600010807532,0.0025462825681274387,0.0024883603529615252,0.002605156990957626,1.9183221839846937e-05,1.7811638128862932e-05,2.057518639593006e-05,-10.72673576979408,-10.765710186073287,-10.679881375364035,0.009504987997583297,0.008479028243096317,0.010749904737474055,0.01158671360462904,0.011404400443801508,0.011788057851584911,,,,,,,0.5006666554682546,0.009812786628659014,0.5675723895757389,0.8434485457206924,0.958522729576631,0.03499306010782066,0.0,0.0722801947685647 | |
| 41 | +mrpt_small_noregime,60,986468,251,0.002522466802980934,0.002459815503930271,0.0025899560516521487,0.4188298943166263,0.41070841262679725,0.4286312995331633,0.002271145361907386,0.002214226429925262,0.002333062803131663,0.000981152763684241,0.0009561304650394972,0.00100909548858598,0.0034848097182212314,0.0033964266099088926,0.0035794062146824518,3.5305047917083036e-05,3.245340715893461e-05,3.80844445501579e-05,-10.068734097711944,-10.109276889702159,-10.016366210747165,0.007972306552265255,0.006565734024778155,0.00981064805605628,0.016094770282506943,0.01584729576143487,0.016368342138517157,,,,,,,0.5008130859498956,0.00818171496693253,0.5755726490874514,0.8492703260521375,0.9603768191162815,0.03888677136155816,0.0,0.070867249824152 | |
| 42 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,5,986468,251,0.0007935719367680454,0.0007786616729877501,0.000809238132349349,0.4536031622654925,0.44810232402615674,0.4595060801631058,0.0007144084294393681,0.0007009747706408397,0.0007286197204099501,0.00030814068221766825,0.0003023505921120143,0.0003142186191384031,0.0010967543754637362,0.0010755855407372143,0.0011187158126982231,3.6657064504593204e-06,3.464677521659318e-06,3.883624718649144e-06,-12.468817055839358,-12.500416132523766,-12.431804191764703,0.013309765572730186,0.012381574311711066,0.014248215468029748,0.004877859260886908,0.004801512695372195,0.004961515136440846,,,,,,,0.4995987141261423,0.014007550168885356,0.5518354371353151,0.8330984887497618,0.9573255290592295,0.031001379170066734,0.0,0.07485329228454758 | |
| 43 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,15,986468,251,0.0013358901077565328,0.0013090835923224382,0.001364481140504783,0.4417973009903742,0.43553608196051746,0.4482468025971612,0.0012024129834980583,0.0011782051356791186,0.0012284434714848326,0.0005188869939984622,0.0005085041401061155,0.0005303205505827019,0.001848996775609598,0.0018107542135337958,0.0018897658563370326,1.0162458415573625e-05,9.525556692633363e-06,1.0797040289990201e-05,-11.398996465274319,-11.436685598891202,-11.355968567880026,0.011148867018494265,0.010137029679534526,0.012375197732607835,0.008419429883360863,0.008289358032614177,0.008563445872310544,,,,,,,0.5010011656314369,0.0116019982401862,0.5680488368603949,0.8452164692620541,0.9603464075874737,0.03610185422274104,0.0,0.0719938761543845 | |
| 44 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,30,986468,251,0.001842633862197007,0.0018018973978669917,0.001884441256021864,0.431601110064301,0.42532264627983657,0.4384737904530588,0.001658740187684505,0.0016220776909757094,0.001696767207170436,0.0007163274774351655,0.0007004977778293744,0.0007328779887244542,0.0025468634563234616,0.002489137559367159,0.002605774637722065,1.9182343011072637e-05,1.7804595020141642e-05,2.0579713861719507e-05,-10.72669581005871,-10.7653319482201,-10.680512777794558,0.009503418838725637,0.008478596239442611,0.010753897462450345,0.011758494190871716,0.011577179962195878,0.011958870666778204,,,,,,,0.5020167640228616,0.009812786628659014,0.5756588150857402,0.8504036623590425,0.9615142102936942,0.0408104537187749,0.0,0.07072832043596375 | |
| 45 | +mrpt_small_ohlcv,60,986468,251,0.0025251766505179195,0.002462986617129445,0.002592134503947372,0.4193395523216614,0.41125316825115754,0.42911961560904627,0.0022736022701660362,0.0022170261997693213,0.0023351853058496378,0.0009825026501649762,0.0009577757327162402,0.0010102351898958282,0.0034857222881988542,0.0033978677377960067,0.0035803977755575677,3.5302223040214595e-05,3.2456030546001935e-05,3.807335636376654e-05,-10.068185850500548,-10.108275125650213,-10.016807006228346,0.007976816379243927,0.006556576275131286,0.009833180371108046,0.01628032699227333,0.016033784143541573,0.01656040831599543,,,,,,,0.5024538236888404,0.00818171496693253,0.5825145873966515,0.8550627085724017,0.9626343682714492,0.04416502643311848,0.0,0.0695687840022916 | |
| 46 | +mrpt_small_returns_only,5,986468,251,0.0007944221017885267,0.0007794522595046821,0.0008101126399572416,0.45417565821542144,0.4487199281155468,0.46010777893884813,0.0007152756209691771,0.0007017879974610781,0.0007294998739334477,0.0003086712606166351,0.00030284550913848906,0.00031476337822912626,0.0010967256594051037,0.001075627794663994,0.0011186435730928279,3.665246578555189e-06,3.4650442483912003e-06,3.883109945091471e-06,-12.456265093930899,-12.487424562629176,-12.419670023731728,0.01337250290936959,0.012433032557264996,0.014324012750048914,0.004927507136017084,0.0048500786088934034,0.005014730167899561,,,,,,,0.4997020589813276,0.014007550168885356,0.5573358689790242,0.8373054169015113,0.9589758613558677,0.03411129442926797,0.0,0.07382389654641183 | |
| 47 | +mrpt_small_returns_only,15,986468,251,0.001337440558814974,0.0013104049485117835,0.0013663782464553688,0.44240837138048866,0.43616513565830445,0.44888081510020916,0.0012039608209225958,0.001179513120519863,0.0012303063834514644,0.0005198291765958019,0.0005093290388639197,0.0005314189596115472,0.0018492807995973718,0.001810695543877547,0.0018902719848918027,1.0161215072629414e-05,9.527217830103876e-06,1.0797680541513476e-05,-11.38767100795842,-11.424343852084384,-11.34507716799305,0.011181253674726398,0.010157354341313153,0.012414811337002958,0.00852245558053255,0.00838902720268737,0.008670592101652557,,,,,,,0.5003294638627642,0.0116019982401862,0.5746562483527089,0.8503245923841423,0.961979506684454,0.04053489401166277,0.0,0.0708090127565572 | |
| 48 | +mrpt_small_returns_only,30,986468,251,0.001844743534284299,0.0018034162129650906,0.0018868372756496012,0.43223856838449903,0.426033351539673,0.4391846548125277,0.0016608049581507112,0.0016236847190594414,0.00169909168457733,0.000717607447190899,0.0007016133203293433,0.0007341949729951497,0.0025473645223279134,0.002489342106314301,0.002606327213079209,1.9181248760378475e-05,1.7814862717238698e-05,2.0567768579777578e-05,-10.716024144437823,-10.754452428806715,-10.671125597472987,0.009526715387625347,0.00848690729720489,0.010788071204002292,0.011922813951969147,0.011736223788466154,0.012129599351845459,,,,,,,0.5007632417723167,0.009812786628659014,0.5828399907548952,0.8556263355729735,0.9632790926821752,0.04540920510929647,0.0,0.06944891780807724 | |
| 49 | +mrpt_small_returns_only,60,986468,251,0.0025286084430805387,0.00246697540313563,0.002596829561504569,0.42005108209647546,0.4118918971791322,0.4298590861822217,0.0022769475659672926,0.002220985229726112,0.002338958617547279,0.0009845646014231691,0.0009600578923122303,0.0010124682138962376,0.0034863209666034416,0.0033982325577964602,0.003580906603706629,3.5274502327441045e-05,3.246423423381244e-05,3.8067133723064936e-05,-10.056690884910884,-10.09595546525489,-10.007289164087705,0.008003320837574053,0.006564791696640814,0.009897833968387827,0.01655895635485649,0.016297945896475582,0.016843796765738044,,,,,,,0.5010919177279788,0.00818171496693253,0.5906344655883414,0.8610689855119477,0.9645452259982078,0.0489879403757254,0.0,0.06816341047430532 | |
| 50 | +mrpt_small_seed2,5,986468,251,0.0007929375560680309,0.0007779730504705274,0.0008085813514585208,0.4531106049064758,0.4475560367632439,0.4591222011761056,0.0007139066698026049,0.0007004220233093341,0.0007281031195757121,0.00030789761223890135,0.00030204552456394987,0.00031397773643942366,0.0010966696846887605,0.0010755537070505179,0.0011185717166808432,3.6642426463678676e-06,3.4647995269757913e-06,3.88177564410015e-06,-12.466093514129494,-12.498159441038835,-12.429173265815088,0.013332695029134246,0.012382414705927474,0.014291383577556771,0.004751133266836405,0.004676562962430441,0.004833745897822611,,,,,,,0.5001572161094839,0.014007550168885356,0.5419942664131021,0.8242112263144876,0.9531429301305263,0.02908657696738992,0.0,0.0767630176962479 | |
| 51 | +mrpt_small_seed2,15,986468,251,0.001334189867275223,0.001307103294374346,0.0013631137741729918,0.44107269059365906,0.4347128468183694,0.44761715557430526,0.001200947179552569,0.0011765540565453396,0.0012273082943146738,0.0005181245070548039,0.0005076021263333322,0.0005297063621782551,0.0018482779693394038,0.0018097488639957594,0.0018892442683823068,1.0163792378919634e-05,9.523054516241629e-06,1.0793954012745614e-05,-11.398525325371464,-11.436553933536796,-11.354900280310245,0.011143343828689832,0.01011199065644153,0.01238207687300804,0.008219491690397263,0.008091648550052925,0.008360626404896985,,,,,,,0.5011853247534344,0.0116019982401862,0.5585087402733794,0.8370965910703642,0.9566260638966495,0.03424276087357714,0.0,0.07378041506435555 | |
| 52 | +mrpt_small_seed2,30,986468,251,0.001840065388664112,0.001798751413287271,0.0018826752320863036,0.43083615272427017,0.42451713354656934,0.43788406358943005,0.0016564508768713972,0.001619035449307092,0.0016950988715100528,0.0007150852283531136,0.0006990521813378418,0.0007319786851715276,0.002546726412670319,0.00248876368246236,0.0026061923224411005,1.91879038328584e-05,1.781536303814368e-05,2.0586161193042427e-05,-10.727152338503577,-10.765964055401463,-10.681096776126877,0.009483052364597736,0.008433548103542842,0.010749380197710118,0.01150535885244608,0.011327193672684957,0.01170314573795579,,,,,,,0.5016692632984643,0.009812786628659014,0.5668354168609625,0.8426061463727156,0.9582388886410913,0.040784248043224114,0.0,0.07237900269450447 | |
| 53 | +mrpt_small_seed2,60,986468,251,0.0025229061834000483,0.0024600606496993738,0.00259234196131284,0.41873959288083684,0.41034773189995355,0.42865631798238546,0.0022715154988482097,0.0022141305313057133,0.002335297791758133,0.0009811140451148526,0.0009559832340348985,0.0010098194723623497,0.0034870647325041275,0.0033983258390649904,0.003581948923985195,3.535839180746151e-05,3.250583420145941e-05,3.813554260357206e-05,-10.069369394743424,-10.109598176083011,-10.018091001556249,0.007958567789325148,0.006533865209761324,0.009808053317984467,0.01600075699388981,0.0157550241030253,0.01627509393799897,,,,,,,0.502390358246814,0.00818171496693253,0.5750627491211068,0.8488040159437509,0.9598020412218136,0.047958083628304005,0.0,0.07094042547569573 | |
| 54 | +mrpt_small_seed3,5,986468,251,0.0007927504238817863,0.0007779340341557263,0.0008084281900007912,0.4530673151655687,0.44761829836756545,0.45895722347261764,0.000713724252996909,0.00070038394966986,0.0007279478205699326,0.00030780503161885307,0.0003020506165171254,0.00031390710836067746,0.0010965068425662977,0.0010755660705356104,0.0011185129334803914,3.6630854501746883e-06,3.4628331205912696e-06,3.879103200829374e-06,-12.467673708785995,-12.500070520976951,-12.430618246628951,0.01332371701362842,0.012378737361619577,0.014274323801764181,0.004741480108350515,0.004668827707458447,0.004822153519006724,,,,,,,0.5004485606480382,0.014007550168885356,0.5397488818694575,0.8224716868666799,0.9532078080586497,0.020485030227803847,0.0,0.07719855605308079 | |
| 55 | +mrpt_small_seed3,15,986468,251,0.0013345565736186938,0.0013077883451980343,0.0013628361642077443,0.44134680078635014,0.43504694960113804,0.44788772258250265,0.0012012893332310065,0.0011771271762905692,0.0012270732691968369,0.0005182647112436402,0.0005078884930362646,0.0005295942032564698,0.001849175479081533,0.0018113667381211126,0.0018898918919470404,1.0161931058617668e-05,9.525954044620658e-06,1.0795497781183612e-05,-11.399380287637014,-11.438100539895196,-11.35519523279676,0.011135999849969791,0.010112424647942429,0.0123600235698754,0.00820612721145153,0.00808196231819373,0.008344588734508924,,,,,,,0.49897541528946515,0.0116019982401862,0.556230916765673,0.8352070214137711,0.9563584424431406,0.03701296294712708,0.0,0.07414597112217626 | |
| 56 | +mrpt_small_seed3,30,986468,251,0.0018410440361251467,0.0018006209465579544,0.001882400558741563,0.43123227745975967,0.4250203110978769,0.4379870146720478,0.001657268914281848,0.0016206853157151736,0.001694964935955791,0.0007153127723166762,0.0006993483734355131,0.0007317451793837879,0.0025486101592998435,0.0024903282730838814,0.002606653916419674,1.918379951543518e-05,1.7828908726608684e-05,2.0577639819233734e-05,-10.727581715785233,-10.766681459023106,-10.68009436974142,0.009477742663725534,0.008442884219600903,0.01072178912179786,0.011487831361591816,0.01131428500717857,0.011681627471401087,,,,,,,0.49850711169156214,0.009812786628659014,0.5643254520166898,0.8409233751120158,0.9578861149069204,0.044916155606344293,0.0,0.07270821537155531 | |
| 57 | +mrpt_small_seed3,60,986468,251,0.0025258006425395566,0.002462439005555056,0.00259290523614367,0.41944242335687254,0.4114827134825476,0.42901608987015233,0.002274040801503838,0.002216687406097061,0.0023347475418692434,0.00098215787824562,0.0009573863446016549,0.0010091490945777133,0.003492060845643189,0.003404727621382252,0.0035839740026629555,3.532776467353947e-05,3.251653347681429e-05,3.803760585380765e-05,-10.069486226023008,-10.11005605638972,-10.016689472706997,0.007960615904418593,0.006542432404626215,0.009796914657647733,0.016032861545681953,0.015791774302565918,0.016304245579704703,,,,,,,0.49731728455303165,0.00818171496693253,0.5731731794645138,0.8477548181998807,0.959992620135676,0.05584491111347997,0.0,0.07101475172653078 | |
| 58 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,5,986468,251,0.0007939355937959995,0.0007790004244436018,0.0008096174095080835,0.45379564615478757,0.4483071911743788,0.45975091424397935,0.000714809779740813,0.0007013515205464369,0.0007290194153324228,0.0003084006020298301,0.0003025879629959679,0.0003144740843916265,0.001096717540003476,0.0010755742458866192,0.0011186042061198124,3.665693388187137e-06,3.464874886005563e-06,3.883859174890485e-06,-12.463309611590951,-12.495119512853298,-12.426362880274986,0.01335501777553859,0.012426832657962872,0.014299590905832101,0.0048783766105771065,0.0048046824287539406,0.004961106666474616,,,,,,,0.49975593023562626,0.014007550168885356,0.5513204685808358,0.8325784516071479,0.957123799251471,0.03127474427569754,0.0,0.07492620399637459 | |
| 59 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,15,986468,251,0.0013363819803813232,0.0013095233463391723,0.0013651307926284995,0.44195614104681474,0.4356633704326482,0.4484056153272608,0.0012029561650360784,0.0011787028959551783,0.0012291577005041042,0.000519231118546463,0.0005088334551360262,0.0005307556536924069,0.001849001422473978,0.0018106301588917057,0.001889750095590387,1.0159462559930089e-05,9.525765239176646e-06,1.079824165743236e-05,-11.395387412269494,-11.433128036311917,-11.352525587603482,0.011182876915419455,0.010168536581919772,0.012414912052985262,0.008431044407188892,0.008305154552428404,0.00857423015890695,,,,,,,0.5014748697313726,0.0116019982401862,0.5683164583139038,0.8452448533556081,0.9603180234939197,0.037027126066681904,0.0,0.07195824428689516 | |
| 60 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,30,986468,251,0.0018434477228743155,0.001802488997758937,0.001885563679080727,0.4317861064109374,0.42552414869552346,0.43876152933509543,0.0016595763271250775,0.0016227858853263453,0.0016979103942450335,0.0007168398873732478,0.0007009374174251508,0.0007335848526848583,0.002546991282263167,0.002489135844104741,0.0026058747981524914,1.918324347460209e-05,1.7809986994137033e-05,2.057452975522909e-05,-10.724000898913285,-10.762323775392646,-10.677969683188365,0.009532639350693584,0.008504073478028664,0.010784912191480972,0.01178581640124321,0.01160887937478682,0.011985153467971367,,,,,,,0.5020524589613193,0.009812786628659014,0.5762548810503737,0.8509449875718219,0.9615486766930098,0.042225104127429636,0.0,0.07060439984218847 | |
| 61 | +mrpt_small_shuffled,60,986468,251,0.0025270041547226585,0.0024645262127213742,0.0025945971641622625,0.41960293796626613,0.41145818842669374,0.42938970662877834,0.002275392903186049,0.002218519792917886,0.002337827717834734,0.0009834676249044524,0.0009586305828983366,0.0010115936598048768,0.0034863287107267144,0.0033983588639878476,0.003581282385187637,3.532216017428589e-05,3.2472190443718836e-05,3.8086469949471645e-05,-10.06586015624966,-10.10607723803711,-10.014568679428685,0.008007911027017601,0.00658924012319203,0.009864649345417956,0.016330761834979057,0.016086130491212106,0.01660485149367821,,,,,,,0.5029324155467444,0.00818171496693253,0.583697595867276,0.855632417878735,0.962861441019881,0.04576723785810344,0.0,0.06938560498474407 | |
| 62 | +mrpt_small_ticker,5,986468,251,0.000793299574300087,0.0007783928649889946,0.0008089379913370224,0.45342099742291664,0.44794119061758375,0.4593002411236605,0.0007141769576046535,0.0007007595834598405,0.0007283622357683514,0.0003080349566795724,0.0003022342220532285,0.0003141094128721561,0.001096599464826854,0.0010754657780556488,0.0011185581684240032,3.665967737427925e-06,3.464579451470729e-06,3.883707247697157e-06,-12.469610669349189,-12.50127368499083,-12.43269351076718,0.013294732495124018,0.012369522299832406,0.014235774086701888,0.004870762582868338,0.004795134927699252,0.004957230964280193,,,,,,,0.4998592750908115,0.014007550168885356,0.5498262487987446,0.8314511976060045,0.956673708625115,0.029029519933212122,0.0,0.07522870129820397 | |
| 63 | +mrpt_small_ticker,15,986468,251,0.0013363245261058326,0.0013094038363818932,0.0013648536763647247,0.44184096012920326,0.43555785835154737,0.4483236346915677,0.001202872748652228,0.0011785415510975783,0.0012288424202965208,0.0005191650818677596,0.0005087750521223667,0.000530567201928052,0.0018491646747008628,0.0018108189741950702,0.0018899597362246011,1.0158408035281949e-05,9.527678882285734e-06,1.0795192169163789e-05,-11.400028354333417,-11.437583879454708,-11.357021122343923,0.011144591816460341,0.010131789599952172,0.01235980737291638,0.008443865925073624,0.008314824962994032,0.008589947448716875,,,,,,,0.5004955264236405,0.0116019982401862,0.5671973140537757,0.8444784828296509,0.9600544569109185,0.03405444568486407,0.0,0.07213559262352849 | |
| 64 | +mrpt_small_ticker,30,986468,251,0.0018441334872072903,0.0018032050925672256,0.0018859357241034936,0.43183637041966594,0.42556901611644166,0.4387099713706818,0.0016601490189332147,0.0016232740092734699,0.001698152459116742,0.0007171158306896924,0.000701250489293089,0.0007336609493491223,0.00254706038775854,0.002488918308490089,0.002605990810846468,1.917620064825639e-05,1.781321790211295e-05,2.05695296856553e-05,-10.728009694357795,-10.766809481822914,-10.68268806980515,0.009510313233678132,0.0084764087245097,0.01075171467311189,0.011850900016725063,0.011671039127127499,0.012052923788884291,,,,,,,0.5011936807360716,0.009812786628659014,0.5766897659123256,0.8509318092426719,0.9619085464505691,0.03892821971063076,0.0,0.07053410144794138 | |
| 65 | +mrpt_small_ticker,60,986468,251,0.0025295698494194013,0.0024670221880110283,0.0025967781425812178,0.4198972151756621,0.41180467296357776,0.42965451094939644,0.002277663011697592,0.002220953467828543,0.002339216107303703,0.0009847361813791014,0.0009599684830513487,0.0010124672292158433,0.003486604496534554,0.003398743361714395,0.0035809581210170995,3.5275572605841625e-05,3.245003814278548e-05,3.8041461243202504e-05,-10.069105388221443,-10.108435341286476,-10.019034667216276,0.007986792906612278,0.006581964616862089,0.009849716735233521,0.016553130000829697,0.01630538346782509,0.016831608385298086,,,,,,,0.5008848747285812,0.00818171496693253,0.5870682069768102,0.8583947984121127,0.9641336566416752,0.04390968459773048,0.0,0.0687565525302474 | |
| 66 | +mrpt_small_time_only,5,986468,251,0.0007945128638516662,0.000779559122668115,0.0008101993491687978,0.45421347111232785,0.4487531457003525,0.46014265866969023,0.0007153753911042978,0.0007018997948797078,0.0007295960791067657,0.0003087376666005941,0.00030291743601831774,0.00031483733041840503,0.0010967149423570114,0.0010756223975026606,0.001118637851874433,3.665118583882779e-06,3.4647728527054696e-06,3.882817055470917e-06,-12.45580277147139,-12.487119967839572,-12.419146040585513,0.013382404066832375,0.012434875470010095,0.014336636322352016,0.004922944121062756,0.004846008605395361,0.005009445428559332,,,,,,,0.49974823434215504,0.014007550168885356,0.5568766548940259,0.8367468584890742,0.9585906486576351,0.03376671443500956,0.0,0.07394329076499541 | |
| 67 | +mrpt_small_time_only,15,986468,251,0.0013376562663556563,0.0013106009615376914,0.001366574804600682,0.4424398316340863,0.4361845209134564,0.4489282555851058,0.0012041790681461524,0.0011797116425972924,0.001230506648410407,0.0005199589806535469,0.000509467191729184,0.0005315371871368865,0.0018492483032842362,0.0018106841669645387,0.0018902188729964316,1.0161397768338107e-05,9.52742529989391e-06,1.0798381133926188e-05,-11.38730030429562,-11.424047811090247,-11.34460214021601,0.011185606856988772,0.010153892172754773,0.012423873343143089,0.008519456721842289,0.008386539467698734,0.00866638621237764,,,,,,,0.5004614623085889,0.0116019982401862,0.574276104242611,0.8498471313818593,0.9617625711122916,0.040473319316620904,0.0,0.07089629149341324 | |
| 68 | +mrpt_small_time_only,30,986468,251,0.0018450275574589318,0.0018037309321306937,0.0018871315286766255,0.43225960269622116,0.4260387319259189,0.4392308836625004,0.001661083679852964,0.001623946339357437,0.001699381346428625,0.0007177652256341444,0.0007017316537479048,0.0007343663723649869,0.0025473087835068135,0.0024893565148315384,0.002606246252813824,1.9180682469871973e-05,1.7815538051312e-05,2.0567893029671457e-05,-10.71570213056237,-10.754143003852572,-10.670789777799728,0.009530924064440002,0.0084832395582027,0.010801071516837787,0.011921457014977932,0.011734898973411219,0.012126519088563333,,,,,,,0.5008293823935765,0.009812786628659014,0.582604808265448,0.8552715344035489,0.9630651982628935,0.04548477483446356,0.0,0.0695214159259298 | |
| 69 | +mrpt_small_time_only,60,986468,251,0.002528929651597481,0.002467410660333163,0.0025971026592197456,0.42004711371528497,0.41185796190948804,0.4298961501185268,0.002277273388310171,0.002221409903946017,0.0023394862389825807,0.0009847554873433834,0.0009602395244143769,0.0010127598303445082,0.0034862100030706666,0.003398292587435382,0.003580781064660524,3.5274097347970954e-05,3.246329580683111e-05,3.806715396298955e-05,-10.056414296215708,-10.095848315119268,-10.006817198592385,0.008009746894982909,0.006567111168154105,0.009911912651618412,0.01655557192862034,0.01629734087256013,0.01683694230038064,,,,,,,0.5016027625154372,0.00818171496693253,0.5902016081616434,0.8607445958713309,0.9643211944026567,0.04923597792781831,0.0,0.0682566561503205 | |
| 70 | +naive_rw,5,986468,251,0.0008267988891138995,0.0008113050388225909,0.0008429367194060691,0.46991491767688853,0.46480960960519035,0.47544503778755237,0.0007461641565109967,0.0007321988137499528,0.000760754252459495,0.00032607178942326226,0.0003199910204902519,0.0003324329861037633,0.0011011207214072817,0.0010799890308192419,0.0011228672601137184,3.6720012393648384e-06,3.4702116792351554e-06,3.894205248245018e-06,-12.301114715133357,-12.33571066142353,-12.264713493339451,0.013874990420368424,0.01287135242237075,0.014896208103008507,0.005815661224501389,0.005716203153172021,0.005923963326885029,,,,,,,0.0,0.014007550168885356,0.6480250753192197,0.8836069695114287,0.9658894155715138,0.07810803238852759,0.0,0.06032650255036203 | |
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results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_1m_5m/train_summary.json
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_b4k/train_log.jsonl
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added
results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_b4k/train_summary.json
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| 1 | +{ | |
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| 10 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_copula/copula/train_log.jsonl
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added
results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_copula/train_log.jsonl
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results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_copula/train_summary.json
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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added
results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_cross/train_summary.json
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| 10 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_learnedregime/train_summary.json
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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added
results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_noregime/train_summary.json
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| 10 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_ohlcv/train_log.jsonl
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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added
results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_returns_only/train_summary.json
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| 1 | +{ | |
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| 10 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_seed2/train_log.jsonl
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results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_seed2/train_summary.json
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_seed3/train_summary.json
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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added
results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_shuffled/train_summary.json
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| 10 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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added
results/metrics/ablations/mrpt_small_time_only/train_summary.json
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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| 158 | +mrpt_small_copula,mrpt_small_copula_indep,crps,5,-9.950875441745014e-08,-3.485967004460814e-07,1.251305572858488e-07,-0.8261065856906131,0.4087436321760476,240,986468,-0.00012540149967373655,1.0,0.4589402185836324 | |
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added
results/metrics/ablations/path_scores_mrpt_small_copula_test.json
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| 102 | + } | |
| 103 | + } | |
| 104 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/run_meta_test.json
+435 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,435 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
| 2 | + "config": { | |
| 3 | + "name": "ablations", | |
| 4 | + "description": "Essential ablations at the Small scale on the main sample (development test 2024); every variant and its reference (mrpt_small_b4k) get the same 4,000-step budget and seed.", | |
| 5 | + "paths": { | |
| 6 | + "cache": "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp41-cache", | |
| 7 | + "root": "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp41_uqo" | |
| 8 | + }, | |
| 9 | + "universe": { | |
| 10 | + "manifest": "data/manifests/universe_main.json", | |
| 11 | + "symbols_from": "all" | |
| 12 | + }, | |
| 13 | + "data": { | |
| 14 | + "dataset_stock": "market_bars.stock.1m.raw", | |
| 15 | + "dataset_etf": "market_bars.etf.1m.raw", | |
| 16 | + "start": "2018-01-02", | |
| 17 | + "end": "2025-12-31", | |
| 18 | + "warmup_sessions": 21 | |
| 19 | + }, | |
| 20 | + "windows": { | |
| 21 | + "L_A": 390, | |
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| 23 | + "L_C": 260, | |
| 24 | + "H": 60, | |
| 25 | + "m_min": 30, | |
| 26 | + "min_future_present": 0.8 | |
| 27 | + }, | |
| 28 | + "splits": { | |
| 29 | + "train_end": "2022-12-31", | |
| 30 | + "val_end": "2023-12-31", | |
| 31 | + "test_end": "2024-12-31", | |
| 32 | + "final_end": "2025-12-31", | |
| 33 | + "embargo_sessions": 1 | |
| 34 | + }, | |
| 35 | + "train": { | |
| 36 | + "model": "small", | |
| 37 | + "batch_size": 64, | |
| 38 | + "max_steps": 4000, | |
| 39 | + "lr": 0.0003, | |
| 40 | + "warmup_steps": 200, | |
| 41 | + "weight_decay": 0.01, | |
| 42 | + "grad_clip": 1.0, | |
| 43 | + "eval_every": 500, | |
| 44 | + "patience": 4, | |
| 45 | + "origins_per_session": 2, | |
| 46 | + "seed": 1, | |
| 47 | + "num_workers": 10, | |
| 48 | + "eval_batch_size": 256, | |
| 49 | + "val_max_batches": 60 | |
| 50 | + }, | |
| 51 | + "eval": { | |
| 52 | + "stride": 15, | |
| 53 | + "horizons": [ | |
| 54 | + 5, | |
| 55 | + 15, | |
| 56 | + 30, | |
| 57 | + 60 | |
| 58 | + ], | |
| 59 | + "n_samples": 200 | |
| 60 | + }, | |
| 61 | + "baselines": [ | |
| 62 | + "naive" | |
| 63 | + ], | |
| 64 | + "reference": "naive_rw", | |
| 65 | + "models": [ | |
| 66 | + { | |
| 67 | + "name": "mrpt_small_b4k", | |
| 68 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 69 | + "kwargs": {}, | |
| 70 | + "feature_set": "full" | |
| 71 | + }, | |
| 72 | + { | |
| 73 | + "name": "mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k", | |
| 74 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 75 | + "kwargs": { | |
| 76 | + "branches": [ | |
| 77 | + "A" | |
| 78 | + ] | |
| 79 | + }, | |
| 80 | + "feature_set": "full" | |
| 81 | + }, | |
| 82 | + { | |
| 83 | + "name": "mrpt_small_1m_5m", | |
| 84 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 85 | + "kwargs": { | |
| 86 | + "branches": [ | |
| 87 | + "A", | |
| 88 | + "B" | |
| 89 | + ] | |
| 90 | + }, | |
| 91 | + "feature_set": "full" | |
| 92 | + }, | |
| 93 | + { | |
| 94 | + "name": "mrpt_small_cross", | |
| 95 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 96 | + "kwargs": { | |
| 97 | + "fusion": "cross" | |
| 98 | + }, | |
| 99 | + "feature_set": "full" | |
| 100 | + }, | |
| 101 | + { | |
| 102 | + "name": "mrpt_small_gaussian", | |
| 103 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 104 | + "kwargs": { | |
| 105 | + "head": "gaussian" | |
| 106 | + }, | |
| 107 | + "feature_set": "full" | |
| 108 | + }, | |
| 109 | + { | |
| 110 | + "name": "mrpt_small_noregime", | |
| 111 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 112 | + "kwargs": { | |
| 113 | + "regime": "none" | |
| 114 | + }, | |
| 115 | + "feature_set": "full" | |
| 116 | + }, | |
| 117 | + { | |
| 118 | + "name": "mrpt_small_learnedregime", | |
| 119 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 120 | + "kwargs": { | |
| 121 | + "regime": "learned" | |
| 122 | + }, | |
| 123 | + "feature_set": "full" | |
| 124 | + }, | |
| 125 | + { | |
| 126 | + "name": "mrpt_small_returns_only", | |
| 127 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 128 | + "kwargs": {}, | |
| 129 | + "feature_set": "returns_only" | |
| 130 | + }, | |
| 131 | + { | |
| 132 | + "name": "mrpt_small_time_only", | |
| 133 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 134 | + "kwargs": {}, | |
| 135 | + "feature_set": "time_only" | |
| 136 | + }, | |
| 137 | + { | |
| 138 | + "name": "mrpt_small_ohlcv", | |
| 139 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 140 | + "kwargs": {}, | |
| 141 | + "feature_set": "ohlcv" | |
| 142 | + }, | |
| 143 | + { | |
| 144 | + "name": "mrpt_small_shuffled", | |
| 145 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 146 | + "kwargs": {}, | |
| 147 | + "feature_set": "full", | |
| 148 | + "shuffle_minutes": true, | |
| 149 | + "shuffle_minutes_eval": true | |
| 150 | + }, | |
| 151 | + { | |
| 152 | + "name": "mrpt_small_ticker", | |
| 153 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 154 | + "kwargs": { | |
| 155 | + "ticker_embedding": true | |
| 156 | + }, | |
| 157 | + "feature_set": "full" | |
| 158 | + }, | |
| 159 | + { | |
| 160 | + "name": "mrpt_small_seed2", | |
| 161 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 162 | + "kwargs": {}, | |
| 163 | + "feature_set": "full", | |
| 164 | + "seed": 2 | |
| 165 | + }, | |
| 166 | + { | |
| 167 | + "name": "mrpt_small_seed3", | |
| 168 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 169 | + "kwargs": {}, | |
| 170 | + "feature_set": "full", | |
| 171 | + "seed": 3 | |
| 172 | + }, | |
| 173 | + { | |
| 174 | + "name": "mrpt_small_copula", | |
| 175 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 176 | + "kwargs": { | |
| 177 | + "copula_rank": 4 | |
| 178 | + }, | |
| 179 | + "feature_set": "full", | |
| 180 | + "keep_paths": true, | |
| 181 | + "copula_steps": 600 | |
| 182 | + } | |
| 183 | + ] | |
| 184 | + }, | |
| 185 | + "symbols": [ | |
| 186 | + "ABT", | |
| 187 | + "ACH", | |
| 188 | + "ACM", | |
| 189 | + "ADP", | |
| 190 | + "AG", | |
| 191 | + "AGG", | |
| 192 | + "ALB", | |
| 193 | + "ALK", | |
| 194 | + "AM", | |
| 195 | + "AMLP", | |
| 196 | + "APA", | |
| 197 | + "ARCC", | |
| 198 | + "ARKK", | |
| 199 | + "ARMK", | |
| 200 | + "AU", | |
| 201 | + "AUPH", | |
| 202 | + "AXTA", | |
| 203 | + "BB", | |
| 204 | + "BCE", | |
| 205 | + "BDN", | |
| 206 | + "BF.B", | |
| 207 | + "BHP", | |
| 208 | + "BKD", | |
| 209 | + "BLDR", | |
| 210 | + "BLMN", | |
| 211 | + "BND", | |
| 212 | + "BOX", | |
| 213 | + "BTU", | |
| 214 | + "CAH", | |
| 215 | + "CB", | |
| 216 | + "CG", | |
| 217 | + "CHD", | |
| 218 | + "CHTR", | |
| 219 | + "CI", | |
| 220 | + "CMCSA", | |
| 221 | + "CME", | |
| 222 | + "CNC", | |
| 223 | + "CNDT", | |
| 224 | + "CNO", | |
| 225 | + "CNX", | |
| 226 | + "COR", | |
| 227 | + "CPRT", | |
| 228 | + "CVBF", | |
| 229 | + "CVE", | |
| 230 | + "CX", | |
| 231 | + "CZR", | |
| 232 | + "D", | |
| 233 | + "DB", | |
| 234 | + "DBC", | |
| 235 | + "DDD", | |
| 236 | + "DGX", | |
| 237 | + "DHI", | |
| 238 | + "DIS", | |
| 239 | + "DKS", | |
| 240 | + "DLR", | |
| 241 | + "DXC", | |
| 242 | + "EBS", | |
| 243 | + "EFX", | |
| 244 | + "EHC", | |
| 245 | + "EMLC", | |
| 246 | + "EMN", | |
| 247 | + "EOG", | |
| 248 | + "EQNR", | |
| 249 | + "EQT", | |
| 250 | + "ERIC", | |
| 251 | + "EWA", | |
| 252 | + "EWT", | |
| 253 | + "EWY", | |
| 254 | + "FAST", | |
| 255 | + "FAZ", | |
| 256 | + "FEZ", | |
| 257 | + "FHN", | |
| 258 | + "FLR", | |
| 259 | + "FPE", | |
| 260 | + "FSLR", | |
| 261 | + "FXI", | |
| 262 | + "GDDY", | |
| 263 | + "GEO", | |
| 264 | + "GIL", | |
| 265 | + "GLD", | |
| 266 | + "GLNG", | |
| 267 | + "GNTX", | |
| 268 | + "GOOGL", | |
| 269 | + "GOOS", | |
| 270 | + "GPC", | |
| 271 | + "GSAT", | |
| 272 | + "GTN", | |
| 273 | + "HAL", | |
| 274 | + "HMC", | |
| 275 | + "HOMB", | |
| 276 | + "HOPE", | |
| 277 | + "HSBC", | |
| 278 | + "HSIC", | |
| 279 | + "HXL", | |
| 280 | + "IEF", | |
| 281 | + "IGSB", | |
| 282 | + "ILF", | |
| 283 | + "INDA", | |
| 284 | + "IRBT", | |
| 285 | + "IRDM", | |
| 286 | + "ITUB", | |
| 287 | + "IVE", | |
| 288 | + "IVZ", | |
| 289 | + "IWF", | |
| 290 | + "IXUS", | |
| 291 | + "IYE", | |
| 292 | + "J", | |
| 293 | + "JPM", | |
| 294 | + "KBE", | |
| 295 | + "KBR", | |
| 296 | + "KBWB", | |
| 297 | + "KIM", | |
| 298 | + "KLAC", | |
| 299 | + "KMI", | |
| 300 | + "KSS", | |
| 301 | + "LBTYA", | |
| 302 | + "LDOS", | |
| 303 | + "LEN", | |
| 304 | + "LNT", | |
| 305 | + "LOW", | |
| 306 | + "LQD", | |
| 307 | + "LRCX", | |
| 308 | + "LYG", | |
| 309 | + "M", | |
| 310 | + "MAA", | |
| 311 | + "MAC", | |
| 312 | + "MINT", | |
| 313 | + "MOMO", | |
| 314 | + "MPC", | |
| 315 | + "MRSH", | |
| 316 | + "MUR", | |
| 317 | + "MUX", | |
| 318 | + "NAVI", | |
| 319 | + "NEM", | |
| 320 | + "NI", | |
| 321 | + "NOW", | |
| 322 | + "NRG", | |
| 323 | + "NTNX", | |
| 324 | + "ODFL", | |
| 325 | + "OIH", | |
| 326 | + "OKE", | |
| 327 | + "OPLN", | |
| 328 | + "OPTU", | |
| 329 | + "OXY", | |
| 330 | + "PAGP", | |
| 331 | + "PANW", | |
| 332 | + "PBA", | |
| 333 | + "PBR", | |
| 334 | + "PBR.A", | |
| 335 | + "PDBC", | |
| 336 | + "PEP", | |
| 337 | + "PFF", | |
| 338 | + "PFG", | |
| 339 | + "PFGC", | |
| 340 | + "PHM", | |
| 341 | + "PK", | |
| 342 | + "POR", | |
| 343 | + "PWR", | |
| 344 | + "RCI", | |
| 345 | + "RIO", | |
| 346 | + "RIOT", | |
| 347 | + "ROL", | |
| 348 | + "ROST", | |
| 349 | + "RPM", | |
| 350 | + "RUN", | |
| 351 | + "SABR", | |
| 352 | + "SAN", | |
| 353 | + "SBH", | |
| 354 | + "SBSW", | |
| 355 | + "SBUX", | |
| 356 | + "SCHG", | |
| 357 | + "SCO", | |
| 358 | + "SDOW", | |
| 359 | + "SDS", | |
| 360 | + "SFM", | |
| 361 | + "SH", | |
| 362 | + "SHEL", | |
| 363 | + "SHV", | |
| 364 | + "SHW", | |
| 365 | + "SJNK", | |
| 366 | + "SLF", | |
| 367 | + "SMFG", | |
| 368 | + "SPDW", | |
| 369 | + "SPEM", | |
| 370 | + "SPGI", | |
| 371 | + "SPWR", | |
| 372 | + "SPY", | |
| 373 | + "SPYD", | |
| 374 | + "SRPT", | |
| 375 | + "SSNC", | |
| 376 | + "STAG", | |
| 377 | + "TAP", | |
| 378 | + "TDC", | |
| 379 | + "TEL", | |
| 380 | + "TIP", | |
| 381 | + "TJX", | |
| 382 | + "TMO", | |
| 383 | + "TNA", | |
| 384 | + "TPR", | |
| 385 | + "TRI", | |
| 386 | + "TTE", | |
| 387 | + "TU", | |
| 388 | + "TXRH", | |
| 389 | + "UNFI", | |
| 390 | + "UPRO", | |
| 391 | + "URBN", | |
| 392 | + "USFD", | |
| 393 | + "USMV", | |
| 394 | + "VALE", | |
| 395 | + "VDE", | |
| 396 | + "VEU", | |
| 397 | + "VFH", | |
| 398 | + "VGK", | |
| 399 | + "VIAV", | |
| 400 | + "VIG", | |
| 401 | + "VIV", | |
| 402 | + "VNQ", | |
| 403 | + "VTEB", | |
| 404 | + "VTR", | |
| 405 | + "VWO", | |
| 406 | + "VXX", | |
| 407 | + "VZ", | |
| 408 | + "WAB", | |
| 409 | + "WDAY", | |
| 410 | + "WEN", | |
| 411 | + "WERN", | |
| 412 | + "WES", | |
| 413 | + "WIT", | |
| 414 | + "WTRG", | |
| 415 | + "WU", | |
| 416 | + "WWW", | |
| 417 | + "WY", | |
| 418 | + "XBI", | |
| 419 | + "XLP", | |
| 420 | + "XLU", | |
| 421 | + "XME", | |
| 422 | + "XPO", | |
| 423 | + "XYL", | |
| 424 | + "ZION", | |
| 425 | + "ZTO" | |
| 426 | + ], | |
| 427 | + "origins": { | |
| 428 | + "train": 586202, | |
| 429 | + "val": 1040345, | |
| 430 | + "test": 986468, | |
| 431 | + "final": 1008425 | |
| 432 | + }, | |
| 433 | + "eval_split": "test", | |
| 434 | + "heldout": false | |
| 435 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/stress_calibration_test.csv
+137 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,137 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,H,days,n,cov_50,cov_80,cov_95,pit_var,pit_ks,crps,crps_scaled | |
| 2 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,5,stress,100846,0.5447216548003887,0.8290264363484917,0.9585209130753822,0.07579812106236851,0.031713757607144344,0.001001574258774215,0.4327748755545601 | |
| 3 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,5,normal,885622,0.5499106842422614,0.8306173514208093,0.9563267398506361,0.0752883442230421,0.02963895834051411,0.0007701013676470411,0.4560506616091736 | |
| 4 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,15,stress,100846,0.5607956686432779,0.8438906848065367,0.9616742359637467,0.0727543257624359,0.035457748966313346,0.001679835876008885,0.4206285048151296 | |
| 5 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,15,normal,885622,0.5659638084871423,0.842825720228269,0.9591349356723298,0.07243307748353159,0.03517508483616205,0.001296896558705664,0.44423394021015006 | |
| 6 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,30,stress,100846,0.5662991095333478,0.8481050314340678,0.9633004779564881,0.07177689407225715,0.041249233771102845,0.0023258253018399082,0.4129486633343623 | |
| 7 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,30,normal,885622,0.5738543080456447,0.8478301126214118,0.9602731187797955,0.07117540988301273,0.03999875300280942,0.0017874846869534765,0.43368002589292803 | |
| 8 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,60,stress,100846,0.5713563254863852,0.8552247982071673,0.9679907978501874,0.07030851651340497,0.04715528514708964,0.003162500954893666,0.3974203219352908 | |
| 9 | +mrpt_small_1m_5m,60,normal,885622,0.5798963892044235,0.8519865134334964,0.9609314131762761,0.07015572399329267,0.04315772692504205,0.002451576297248589,0.4215939437221218 | |
| 10 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,5,stress,100846,0.5491739880610039,0.8329532157943795,0.9594629434980069,0.07498511536535765,0.03444539538372071,0.0010015899868415377,0.4328415079515383 | |
| 11 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,5,normal,885622,0.550642373382775,0.8308454397022658,0.9562149540097242,0.07521349396041048,0.029892686010064895,0.0007702431292795854,0.4561912442518458 | |
| 12 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,15,stress,100846,0.5644547131269461,0.8470241754754775,0.9631120718719632,0.07210844306994214,0.03688090332165192,0.0016807320395676054,0.4209353196328639 | |
| 13 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,15,normal,885622,0.5662088340172218,0.8429171813708332,0.9586945672081317,0.07244898199183962,0.035297018237058886,0.0012973455543162386,0.44445423230940045 | |
| 14 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,30,stress,100846,0.5698094123713385,0.8517541598080242,0.964470578902485,0.07107630193604554,0.04278890466377319,0.0023270003507166,0.4132600259111007 | |
| 15 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,30,normal,885622,0.5745905137857912,0.847915928014435,0.9602290819333756,0.07111103986484268,0.04043598339064658,0.001788049128037219,0.43390902674029397 | |
| 16 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,60,stress,100846,0.5772861590940642,0.8595184737123932,0.968744422188287,0.0693482960904994,0.047975181309506953,0.003163446405167861,0.3977206523774585 | |
| 17 | +mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k,60,normal,885622,0.5814489703281988,0.8527396564222659,0.9608986678289383,0.06991399117653445,0.044614896290681494,0.002453074505557641,0.4219542553740677 | |
| 18 | +mrpt_small_b4k,5,stress,100846,0.538771988973286,0.8245542708684529,0.9555956607103901,0.07692901997537448,0.028653024415303152,0.001000667899579472,0.4324144876269438 | |
| 19 | +mrpt_small_b4k,5,normal,885622,0.5453308522146018,0.82700971746411,0.9543428234619284,0.07617296008378271,0.026932187890436388,0.0007692776613793298,0.45565888988717995 | |
| 20 | +mrpt_small_b4k,15,stress,100846,0.5555401304960038,0.839220197132261,0.9597306784602265,0.07383225260742418,0.03251403364922145,0.0016779405927443434,0.42016865650218066 | |
| 21 | +mrpt_small_b4k,15,normal,885622,0.5617227214319428,0.8395274733464164,0.95746605210801,0.07320958276555904,0.03330115209734574,0.0012955273089297348,0.44390140446668414 | |
| 22 | +mrpt_small_b4k,30,stress,100846,0.5602007020605676,0.8440096781230787,0.9613767526723915,0.07281599492429351,0.03800864464928605,0.002323230154841277,0.4125244360337249 | |
| 23 | +mrpt_small_b4k,30,normal,885622,0.5702060246922502,0.8450783742951282,0.958893297591975,0.07184840803353322,0.03866957618873712,0.0017854774089957554,0.433334870609607 | |
| 24 | +mrpt_small_b4k,60,stress,100846,0.5675088749181921,0.8511988576641611,0.9665033813934117,0.07114560724053318,0.042246217891627996,0.003158112375893936,0.39693120555937206 | |
| 25 | +mrpt_small_b4k,60,normal,885622,0.5775658237938985,0.8501697112312024,0.9601635912387,0.07057286077878594,0.04366250595913557,0.0024492029912825163,0.4213454434369908 | |
| 26 | +mrpt_small_copula,5,stress,100846,0.5451877119568451,0.8301370406362176,0.9577573726275708,0.07573809534422306,0.032588456963815515,0.0010003519290446069,0.43238071549913687 | |
| 27 | +mrpt_small_copula,5,normal,885622,0.550585915887365,0.8311954761738077,0.9565514406823679,0.07517830152135847,0.030215508147992787,0.000769858545530557,0.4558136419887479 | |
| 28 | +mrpt_small_copula,15,stress,100846,0.5630962060964243,0.8451599468496519,0.9628245046903199,0.07245228293530792,0.035070090665440895,0.0016787855579263199,0.4202157173633131 | |
| 29 | +mrpt_small_copula,15,normal,885622,0.5673729875725761,0.8439808405843576,0.9595493336886391,0.07219114603743486,0.036517742332303094,0.0012967619100831102,0.44412758285660375 | |
| 30 | +mrpt_small_copula,30,stress,100846,0.568550066437935,0.8500684211570116,0.9646391527675863,0.07126561548725902,0.04119950384897997,0.002325725210548032,0.41279040453361665 | |
| 31 | +mrpt_small_copula,30,normal,885622,0.5765010354304658,0.8498411286079163,0.9614858257812023,0.07068482515840585,0.0420296870798319,0.0017879790201273083,0.43376238907178477 | |
| 32 | +mrpt_small_copula,60,stress,100846,0.577296075203776,0.8598853697717311,0.9701029292188089,0.06918085997208046,0.048223410375477366,0.003166657644258139,0.3977323933848338 | |
| 33 | +mrpt_small_copula,60,normal,885622,0.5855906921914767,0.8567232972983959,0.9628193518227867,0.06913097663494903,0.04670417816728922,0.002453675602830403,0.4218668463409838 | |
| 34 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,5,stress,100846,0.5445530809352874,0.8294230807369652,0.9577276242984353,0.07581153354932524,0.03208919888234629,0.001001250062779292,0.43263317289813824 | |
| 35 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,5,normal,885622,0.550303628410315,0.831371623559487,0.9565604738816335,0.0751817280748374,0.030071874731057657,0.0007698671146575036,0.4558317114300409 | |
| 36 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,15,stress,100846,0.561648454078496,0.8447335541320429,0.9621502092299149,0.07268193643819726,0.03448181592245328,0.0016787007593922552,0.42034976686155445 | |
| 37 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,15,normal,885622,0.5667835713204956,0.8440497187287579,0.9595504628385474,0.07222439520155155,0.03655890388883287,0.0012966350096874813,0.4440708146586067 | |
| 38 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,30,stress,100846,0.5672907205045317,0.8486305852487952,0.9634194712730302,0.07158588193469366,0.04075539222190702,0.0023254277343000315,0.41279024222032124 | |
| 39 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,30,normal,885622,0.5755085126611579,0.8494154390925248,0.9609212508271023,0.07085507936568475,0.04172003063494378,0.0017873382084614357,0.4335543354176613 | |
| 40 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,60,stress,100846,0.5740336751085814,0.8571386073815521,0.9681097911667295,0.06990533764776861,0.046572272642085855,0.0031612290372067106,0.3971994037301138 | |
| 41 | +mrpt_small_copula_indep,60,normal,885622,0.5824561720463132,0.8543407909920937,0.961856186951092,0.0696429010982565,0.045318541502946674,0.002451938857618614,0.4216061132970076 | |
| 42 | +mrpt_small_cross,5,stress,100846,0.5435317216349682,0.8280447414870198,0.95780695317613,0.07604871482514514,0.03155831099643014,0.001001155638309319,0.43257679741126565 | |
| 43 | +mrpt_small_cross,5,normal,885622,0.547419779544772,0.8285702026372426,0.9551400032971177,0.07578308159497833,0.028477586978760794,0.0007696649361261048,0.45588319297987706 | |
| 44 | +mrpt_small_cross,15,stress,100846,0.5594867421613152,0.8427999127382345,0.9610296888324772,0.07308151036547864,0.03417048478847268,0.0016785279400249554,0.4202889399747071 | |
| 45 | +mrpt_small_cross,15,normal,885622,0.5633588596489247,0.8407390511979151,0.958098376056602,0.07293669758126835,0.03416931722800187,0.0012960980772874224,0.44401962291796443 | |
| 46 | +mrpt_small_cross,30,stress,100846,0.5644547131269461,0.8469646788172064,0.9628641691291673,0.07213306255161941,0.039285594196756896,0.002323862232478481,0.41267191026774647 | |
| 47 | +mrpt_small_cross,30,normal,885622,0.571716827269422,0.8459342699255439,0.9594206105991043,0.0715907935144609,0.03956019669859456,0.001786370132632079,0.4334652156957806 | |
| 48 | +mrpt_small_cross,60,stress,100846,0.5698094123713385,0.8539555361640521,0.9670586835372746,0.07059596321416145,0.0447978840184442,0.0031606016053316727,0.3972214599230512 | |
| 49 | +mrpt_small_cross,60,normal,885622,0.5785154388666949,0.8503808622640359,0.9600439013484309,0.07048915296879424,0.04315027480960443,0.002450374377079781,0.42148146466232106 | |
| 50 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,5,stress,100846,0.0,0.0,0.0,2.0655208625277435e-06,0.9950249097553338,, | |
| 51 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,5,normal,885622,0.0,0.0,0.0,2.0638195199183923e-06,0.9950248761956605,, | |
| 52 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,15,stress,100846,0.0,0.0,0.0,2.0655208625277435e-06,0.9950249097553338,, | |
| 53 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,15,normal,885622,0.0,0.0,0.0,2.0638195199183923e-06,0.9950248761956605,, | |
| 54 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,30,stress,100846,0.0,0.0,0.0,2.0655208625277435e-06,0.9950249097553338,, | |
| 55 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,30,normal,885622,0.0,0.0,0.0,2.0638195199183923e-06,0.9950248761956605,, | |
| 56 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,60,stress,100846,0.0,0.0,0.0,2.0655208625277435e-06,0.9950249097553338,, | |
| 57 | +mrpt_small_gaussian,60,normal,885622,0.0,0.0,0.0,2.0638195199183923e-06,0.9950248761956605,, | |
| 58 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,5,stress,100846,0.5293219364179045,0.8158677587608829,0.951807706800468,0.0787414181111477,0.022047772474714233,0.0010006087619143064,0.43244637129873525 | |
| 59 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,5,normal,885622,0.5364873501335784,0.8192840737922048,0.9509305324393477,0.07789340111010902,0.02066115651417355,0.0007690510293798691,0.4554872464923872 | |
| 60 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,15,stress,100846,0.5459215040755211,0.831763282628959,0.9567161811078277,0.0754876960015636,0.03228276354375059,0.0016764081508734367,0.41991709565270335 | |
| 61 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,15,normal,885622,0.552775337559365,0.8315206713473694,0.9540819898331342,0.07496614103434354,0.02857635258779795,0.0012944471732808192,0.44343401232564245 | |
| 62 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,30,stress,100846,0.5515141899529976,0.836473434742082,0.9585506614045178,0.07431853206220909,0.04122455918554557,0.0023213503178562403,0.41239155847102715 | |
| 63 | +mrpt_small_learnedregime,30,normal,885622,0.5612044416240789,0.8375412986578924,0.9557181280501162,0.07353321176742897,0.034130776541829,0.0017832926192955325,0.43271531305800714 | |
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added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_ewma_test.json
+186 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
| 2 | + "5": { | |
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| 186 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_1m_5m_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_1m_only_b4k_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
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| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_b4k_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_copula_indep_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
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| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_copula_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_cross_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_gaussian_test.json
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| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_learnedregime_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_noregime_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_ohlcv_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_returns_only_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_seed2_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_seed3_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
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| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_shuffled_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_ticker_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 159 | + "pit_chi2_p": 0.0, | |
| 160 | + "pit_var": 0.0687565525302474 | |
| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_mrpt_small_time_only_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_naive_rw_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
| 2 | + "5": { | |
| 3 | + "H": 5, | |
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| 121 | + }, | |
| 122 | + "60": { | |
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| 124 | + "n": 986468, | |
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| 126 | + "crps": 0.0026361374639517115, | |
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| 141 | + "mse": 3.540986406948195e-05, | |
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| 143 | + "mse_hi": 3.816088721241174e-05, | |
| 144 | + "qlike": -9.931388126185942, | |
| 145 | + "qlike_lo": -9.966520930420531, | |
| 146 | + "qlike_hi": -9.889701413123317, | |
| 147 | + "brier_tail": 0.008192971338147816, | |
| 148 | + "brier_tail_lo": 0.0067217823080757974, | |
| 149 | + "brier_tail_hi": 0.010159102460154628, | |
| 150 | + "sharpness": 0.020146041440889273, | |
| 151 | + "sharpness_lo": 0.019801508575358718, | |
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| 153 | + "dir_acc": 0.0, | |
| 154 | + "tail_rate": 0.00818171496693253, | |
| 155 | + "cov_50": 0.6764487038606423, | |
| 156 | + "cov_80": 0.9090573642530726, | |
| 157 | + "cov_95": 0.9779587376377136, | |
| 158 | + "pit_ks": 0.08861698626708647, | |
| 159 | + "pit_chi2_p": 0.0, | |
| 160 | + "pit_var": 0.054639895646837654 | |
| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/ablations/summary_seasonal_vol_test.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
| 2 | + "5": { | |
| 3 | + "H": 5, | |
| 4 | + "n": 986468, | |
| 5 | + "n_days": 251, | |
| 6 | + "crps": 0.0008028910038313538, | |
| 7 | + "crps_lo": 0.000787721691666255, | |
| 8 | + "crps_hi": 0.0008186401184158672, | |
| 9 | + "crps_scaled": 0.45816883240349016, | |
| 10 | + "crps_scaled_lo": 0.45273586812821165, | |
| 11 | + "crps_scaled_hi": 0.46407801224346656, | |
| 12 | + "wis": 0.000723784423765957, | |
| 13 | + "wis_lo": 0.000710129832171072, | |
| 14 | + "wis_hi": 0.0007380742844542655, | |
| 15 | + "qloss": 0.00031357360183340607, | |
| 16 | + "qloss_lo": 0.00030771400011432327, | |
| 17 | + "qloss_hi": 0.00031973483405830193, | |
| 18 | + "mae": 0.001097807664700164, | |
| 19 | + "mae_lo": 0.0010767150936193404, | |
| 20 | + "mae_hi": 0.0011195368776308085, | |
| 21 | + "mse": 3.666058511610245e-06, | |
| 22 | + "mse_lo": 3.4645045274276204e-06, | |
| 23 | + "mse_hi": 3.8867625308832165e-06, | |
| 24 | + "qlike": -12.385840647039675, | |
| 25 | + "qlike_lo": -12.418816383943279, | |
| 26 | + "qlike_hi": -12.348888128984747, | |
| 27 | + "brier_tail": 0.013807569201433802, | |
| 28 | + "brier_tail_lo": 0.012902520221475955, | |
| 29 | + "brier_tail_hi": 0.014758102538663703, | |
| 30 | + "sharpness": 0.0048799119265604575, | |
| 31 | + "sharpness_lo": 0.004802805267909874, | |
| 32 | + "sharpness_hi": 0.004958271015864075, | |
| 33 | + "dir_acc": 0.0, | |
| 34 | + "tail_rate": 0.014007550168885356, | |
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| 36 | + "cov_80": 0.8210170020720389, | |
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| 39 | + "pit_chi2_p": 0.0, | |
| 40 | + "pit_var": 0.07616651813589621 | |
| 41 | + }, | |
| 42 | + "15": { | |
| 43 | + "H": 15, | |
| 44 | + "n": 986468, | |
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| 46 | + "crps": 0.0013488736972031886, | |
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| 49 | + "crps_scaled": 0.4453413033630179, | |
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| 79 | + "pit_chi2_p": 0.0, | |
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| 81 | + }, | |
| 82 | + "30": { | |
| 83 | + "H": 30, | |
| 84 | + "n": 986468, | |
| 85 | + "n_days": 251, | |
| 86 | + "crps": 0.0018583291928984443, | |
| 87 | + "crps_lo": 0.001817075109737519, | |
| 88 | + "crps_hi": 0.0019001988612090085, | |
| 89 | + "crps_scaled": 0.4346793831081901, | |
| 90 | + "crps_scaled_lo": 0.4284566805670354, | |
| 91 | + "crps_scaled_hi": 0.4417532907699356, | |
| 92 | + "wis": 0.0016748156596959086, | |
| 93 | + "wis_lo": 0.0016377185458000796, | |
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| 95 | + "qloss": 0.0007257384078287346, | |
| 96 | + "qloss_lo": 0.0007098320079386109, | |
| 97 | + "qloss_hi": 0.0007423107193211968, | |
| 98 | + "mae": 0.002547577871528623, | |
| 99 | + "mae_lo": 0.0024892160859679444, | |
| 100 | + "mae_hi": 0.002606746546051195, | |
| 101 | + "mse": 1.9188083101088778e-05, | |
| 102 | + "mse_lo": 1.7812201089659235e-05, | |
| 103 | + "mse_hi": 2.0581435831175713e-05, | |
| 104 | + "qlike": -10.655142940561815, | |
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| 106 | + "qlike_hi": -10.606097563983111, | |
| 107 | + "brier_tail": 0.00981854560918347, | |
| 108 | + "brier_tail_lo": 0.008774974887853644, | |
| 109 | + "brier_tail_hi": 0.011086924780614356, | |
| 110 | + "sharpness": 0.011575046691021107, | |
| 111 | + "sharpness_lo": 0.0113910183150486, | |
| 112 | + "sharpness_hi": 0.011760419954172393, | |
| 113 | + "dir_acc": 0.0, | |
| 114 | + "tail_rate": 0.009812786628659014, | |
| 115 | + "cov_50": 0.5620820949082991, | |
| 116 | + "cov_80": 0.8291814838393136, | |
| 117 | + "cov_95": 0.9464148862406079, | |
| 118 | + "pit_ks": 0.03251090102748219, | |
| 119 | + "pit_chi2_p": 0.0, | |
| 120 | + "pit_var": 0.07454779297241647 | |
| 121 | + }, | |
| 122 | + "60": { | |
| 123 | + "H": 60, | |
| 124 | + "n": 986468, | |
| 125 | + "n_days": 251, | |
| 126 | + "crps": 0.0025454887325608044, | |
| 127 | + "crps_lo": 0.0024828701498845174, | |
| 128 | + "crps_hi": 0.002612971082857434, | |
| 129 | + "crps_scaled": 0.42209061061164854, | |
| 130 | + "crps_scaled_lo": 0.4138975033624834, | |
| 131 | + "crps_scaled_hi": 0.4319988747480499, | |
| 132 | + "wis": 0.002294624223359453, | |
| 133 | + "wis_lo": 0.002237390998210576, | |
| 134 | + "wis_hi": 0.002356400031244012, | |
| 135 | + "qloss": 0.00099487875170855, | |
| 136 | + "qloss_lo": 0.0009698396569717371, | |
| 137 | + "qloss_hi": 0.0010227333893806818, | |
| 138 | + "mae": 0.003485106584551856, | |
| 139 | + "mae_lo": 0.003396926901988061, | |
| 140 | + "mae_hi": 0.003579670375085783, | |
| 141 | + "mse": 3.531324658411227e-05, | |
| 142 | + "mse_lo": 3.2457414323941114e-05, | |
| 143 | + "mse_hi": 3.8068460993392414e-05, | |
| 144 | + "qlike": -9.99158466528054, | |
| 145 | + "qlike_lo": -10.036072463878957, | |
| 146 | + "qlike_hi": -9.932257128770768, | |
| 147 | + "brier_tail": 0.00823662995150375, | |
| 148 | + "brier_tail_lo": 0.00680298764043341, | |
| 149 | + "brier_tail_hi": 0.010180657459205562, | |
| 150 | + "sharpness": 0.015950807328131558, | |
| 151 | + "sharpness_lo": 0.01569816104263908, | |
| 152 | + "sharpness_hi": 0.016207258498235375, | |
| 153 | + "dir_acc": 0.0, | |
| 154 | + "tail_rate": 0.00818171496693253, | |
| 155 | + "cov_50": 0.5651100694599318, | |
| 156 | + "cov_80": 0.8310163127440525, | |
| 157 | + "cov_95": 0.9470362951459145, | |
| 158 | + "pit_ks": 0.03418279906921265, | |
| 159 | + "pit_chi2_p": 0.0, | |
| 160 | + "pit_var": 0.0740759273178554 | |
| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/baselines_meta.json
+15 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
| 2 | + "wall_s": 26.490328073501587, | |
| 3 | + "n_train": 146119, | |
| 4 | + "n_eval": 254334, | |
| 5 | + "baselines": [ | |
| 6 | + "naive_rw", | |
| 7 | + "seasonal_vol", | |
| 8 | + "ewma", | |
| 9 | + "har_rv", | |
| 10 | + "garch_t", | |
| 11 | + "ridge", | |
| 12 | + "elastic_net", | |
| 13 | + "lightgbm" | |
| 14 | + ] | |
| 15 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/compare_crps_vs_naive_rw_final.csv
+49 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,reference,metric,H,diff,lo,hi,dm_t,dm_p,lag,n,rel_diff | |
| 2 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.5373586290477724e-05,-2.8656495149128528e-05,-2.2043942161790573e-05,-23.461522304489506,0.0,240,1008425,-0.026772228303211684 | |
| 3 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,crps,15,-6.560118778495627e-05,-7.032806304013688e-05,-6.1220483104569e-05,-41.75835182414357,0.0,240,1008425,-0.040988421714703044 | |
| 4 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,crps,30,-9.195289198623538e-05,-9.945807955124174e-05,-8.460365648178613e-05,-34.00801507964278,0.0,480,1008425,-0.04167287071836014 | |
| 5 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00013465655786292635,-0.00014680237605832258,-0.00012262369066391496,-25.380929604208216,0.0,960,1008425,-0.04422341062329011 | |
| 6 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.32247452909235e-05,-3.5433352667765025e-05,-3.111260727140955e-05,-38.95940811103637,0.0,240,1008425,-0.035056158639209606 | |
| 7 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.739826919521642e-05,-6.303718682219668e-05,-5.299067135963365e-05,-35.7524340185557,0.0,240,1008425,-0.03586313819773694 | |
| 8 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.475464490417926e-05,-8.125597620175655e-05,-6.900043602609434e-05,-29.7258659450767,0.0,480,1008425,-0.03387865879362564 | |
| 9 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,60,-9.566257114711083e-05,-0.00010535387639867552,-8.556014638126152e-05,-19.689062650876487,0.0,960,1008425,-0.03141714917014922 | |
| 10 | +garch_t,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.202135955655518e-05,-3.414243725686687e-05,-2.9881622318290393e-05,-32.359739066655614,0.0,240,1008425,-0.033786439914843584 | |
| 11 | +garch_t,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.895469451256094e-05,-6.571270256952769e-05,-5.388980085692235e-05,-29.077866362091935,0.0,240,1008425,-0.03683561170666001 | |
| 12 | +garch_t,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.586946112917623e-05,-8.24514433695191e-05,-6.990954913995678e-05,-28.86436924330462,0.0,480,1008425,-0.034383891325365734 | |
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| 15 | +har_rv,naive_rw,crps,15,-6.50045251044554e-05,-6.957089537520097e-05,-6.07662556265104e-05,-44.905765711773476,0.0,240,1008425,-0.040615619599443126 | |
| 16 | +har_rv,naive_rw,crps,30,-9.062234491422113e-05,-9.830511978807531e-05,-8.346530421377135e-05,-34.0798215021573,0.0,480,1008425,-0.041069869388885454 | |
| 17 | +har_rv,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.0001330929411782224,-0.00014574095229499576,-0.00012072786456187936,-24.845780831483946,0.0,960,1008425,-0.043709893392473324 | |
| 18 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.4375180397875775e-05,-2.7532378044898412e-05,-2.1070005283184738e-05,-22.150441899026262,0.0,240,1008425,-0.02571878831290009 | |
| 19 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,crps,15,-6.187724496992536e-05,-6.708737345269711e-05,-5.723068311409232e-05,-34.11811939903454,0.0,240,1008425,-0.03866165685422092 | |
| 20 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,crps,30,-9.317034723658858e-05,-0.00010087062639740053,-8.576818979000356e-05,-34.626463360207325,0.0,480,1008425,-0.04222461905555167 | |
| 21 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00013417970333197274,-0.00014791073462339837,-0.0001213256297116169,-24.891746680247113,0.0,960,1008425,-0.044066803815091406 | |
| 22 | +mlp,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.63841273871098e-05,-3.87409839181085e-05,-3.424106375925288e-05,-52.7643221075641,0.0,240,1008425,-0.03838969209434922 | |
| 23 | +mlp,naive_rw,crps,15,-6.153086374854608e-05,-6.620718509437949e-05,-5.752262754691653e-05,-49.83379859846124,0.0,240,1008425,-0.03844523364520085 | |
| 24 | +mlp,naive_rw,crps,30,-8.396873756473825e-05,-9.038996532202718e-05,-7.819665236104941e-05,-40.97739987020357,0.0,480,1008425,-0.03805446755761693 | |
| 25 | +mlp,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011713242555746828,-0.0001269268103606238,-0.00010800698975358196,-29.878369860893642,0.0,960,1008425,-0.038468199655028 | |
| 26 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.729903498900894e-05,-3.9571181411804684e-05,-3.5087149042654254e-05,-42.71475892339853,0.0,240,1008425,-0.039355031203845925 | |
| 27 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,crps,15,-6.196726713795078e-05,-6.630017819488878e-05,-5.8052489405653494e-05,-49.15157135369117,0.0,240,1008425,-0.03871790380204743 | |
| 28 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,crps,30,-8.478042578313492e-05,-9.10699714047063e-05,-7.872467681097616e-05,-40.347775641993664,0.0,480,1008425,-0.03842232306991473 | |
| 29 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011859514443635547,-0.00012877470575196334,-0.00010899967367258124,-30.088229634545197,0.0,960,1008425,-0.038948580400192404 | |
| 30 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.760992279744508e-05,-3.997057840349865e-05,-3.5394285605346956e-05,-42.42200852109671,0.0,240,1008425,-0.03968305576012479 | |
| 31 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,crps,15,-6.261404880641822e-05,-6.72001795243046e-05,-5.858062550741685e-05,-46.13755787888525,0.0,240,1008425,-0.03912202087186918 | |
| 32 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,crps,30,-8.565135782615565e-05,-9.222204511308983e-05,-7.97904765579015e-05,-39.51010909726733,0.0,480,1008425,-0.03881702776760616 | |
| 33 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011950236662271128,-0.00012977406973164942,-0.00010940985199937151,-28.5151038315074,0.0,960,1008425,-0.039246526968191066 | |
| 34 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.749261090870432e-05,-3.998729490965597e-05,-3.520424195868352e-05,-42.264196396795484,0.0,240,1008425,-0.039559277409201364 | |
| 35 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,15,-6.228374495158765e-05,-6.693418323011426e-05,-5.826592131738208e-05,-46.234843270766326,0.0,240,1008425,-0.03891564299742935 | |
| 36 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,30,-8.503673745420499e-05,-9.142831359522746e-05,-7.908362946459724e-05,-39.57523904821543,0.0,480,1008425,-0.03853848301770309 | |
| 37 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011908783323205458,-0.00012942031732640698,-0.00010839647712024708,-28.72596698276453,0.0,960,1008425,-0.039110387439281254 | |
| 38 | +ridge,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.536635076229095e-05,-2.8697580008762417e-05,-2.210244896430475e-05,-23.47526189434443,0.0,240,1008425,-0.026764593938471398 | |
| 39 | +ridge,naive_rw,crps,15,-6.569140176725632e-05,-7.04464903961704e-05,-6.133391048229064e-05,-41.880116438768084,0.0,240,1008425,-0.04104478851042629 | |
| 40 | +ridge,naive_rw,crps,30,-9.191141174626101e-05,-9.952489144425841e-05,-8.452959164332777e-05,-33.97160233184346,0.0,480,1008425,-0.04165407195477066 | |
| 41 | +ridge,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00013456187319519877,-0.00014673815684794844,-0.00012253928786875923,-25.362049349614058,0.0,960,1008425,-0.044192314633558154 | |
| 42 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.3893974178956534e-05,-2.6409797337204522e-05,-2.0971710958715022e-05,-27.705906877411753,0.0,240,1008425,-0.025211057060157707 | |
| 43 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,15,-4.558642461077737e-05,-4.983680597839e-05,-4.1709757274936934e-05,-31.89260070013279,0.0,240,1008425,-0.028482953731526036 | |
| 44 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,30,-6.376027878788857e-05,-6.996666632867022e-05,-5.7215667103670177e-05,-26.275330428283635,0.0,480,1008425,-0.028896033583065812 | |
| 45 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,60,-9.35957438656127e-05,-0.00010375173080171258,-8.353996980341521e-05,-20.033059236560973,0.0,960,1008425,-0.03073836936909302 | |
| 46 | +tcn,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.68272193158375e-05,-3.9108744745387876e-05,-3.466057765399668e-05,-47.54864010437369,0.0,240,1008425,-0.038857208122214 | |
| 47 | +tcn,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.9883550697938594e-05,-6.483901268091263e-05,-5.56474254871392e-05,-46.32985047226067,0.0,240,1008425,-0.03741597237274082 | |
| 48 | +tcn,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.945841359956196e-05,-8.534663353252052e-05,-7.370035124655329e-05,-39.03567461616253,0.0,480,1008425,-0.03601039756222354 | |
| 49 | +tcn,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010795076641210776,-0.00011690557019997825,-9.908000548279887e-05,-28.618878998597648,0.0,960,1008425,-0.035452792986147466 | |
added
results/metrics/final/compare_crps_vs_naive_rw_final_heldout.csv
+49 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,reference,metric,H,diff,lo,hi,dm_t,dm_p,lag,n,rel_diff | |
| 2 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.6600819321758574e-05,-2.9896761400235883e-05,-2.347064359595124e-05,-25.309656609235116,0.0,60,254334,-0.03071546262365753 | |
| 3 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.528071274336132e-05,-6.06626013303061e-05,-5.042111805388553e-05,-32.456418470950396,0.0,60,254334,-0.03765054948916459 | |
| 4 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.730649928483398e-05,-8.564277775593033e-05,-6.952014864196523e-05,-27.388653433075675,0.0,120,254334,-0.03816591590999751 | |
| 5 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011186695747656464,-0.0001247737060198679,-9.967492422131802e-05,-20.519775704393073,0.0,240,254334,-0.04001078583926748 | |
| 6 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.9080561376072973e-05,-3.14233912681672e-05,-2.674605019593612e-05,-30.796436542192634,0.0,60,254334,-0.03357877384216967 | |
| 7 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.026677905636796e-05,-5.662775826394552e-05,-4.542175920765069e-05,-28.73329926305864,0.0,60,254334,-0.034235663011598264 | |
| 8 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,30,-6.415738308598721e-05,-7.1745746199918e-05,-5.7941914131736195e-05,-23.800052374115978,0.0,120,254334,-0.0316742487438654 | |
| 9 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,60,-7.978183000630742e-05,-9.050558341866814e-05,-6.875183140536132e-05,-15.4724182871355,0.0,240,254334,-0.02853509013075591 | |
| 10 | +garch_t,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.661883546870327e-05,-2.901136938167274e-05,-2.4445583112554665e-05,-24.040419415668204,0.0,60,254334,-0.030736265527560928 | |
| 11 | +garch_t,naive_rw,crps,15,-4.8893842093312745e-05,-5.68274000258563e-05,-4.3287544118309316e-05,-21.862323698503626,0.0,60,254334,-0.03330058405715368 | |
| 12 | +garch_t,naive_rw,crps,30,-6.0468889166149554e-05,-6.771945671426281e-05,-5.397883850918485e-05,-21.301148622821668,0.0,120,254334,-0.02985325374239237 | |
| 13 | +garch_t,naive_rw,crps,60,-7.129844453141757e-05,-8.173115308191742e-05,-6.0666207149572653e-05,-12.647777082917328,0.0,240,254334,-0.02550088836926724 | |
| 14 | +har_rv,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.43581970634457e-05,-2.6398675067883958e-05,-2.2372530961393168e-05,-30.210790116594715,0.0,60,254334,-0.028125949145858472 | |
| 15 | +har_rv,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.507210473438006e-05,-6.064486566540031e-05,-5.0351067216475685e-05,-35.629773020061045,0.0,60,254334,-0.03750847089111091 | |
| 16 | +har_rv,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.600736269307993e-05,-8.409155693897765e-05,-6.87997825422802e-05,-28.93156679735188,0.0,120,254334,-0.03752453726298622 | |
| 17 | +har_rv,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010860679825193,-0.00012153357518362918,-9.672120268155577e-05,-21.128872653150445,0.0,240,254334,-0.03884474418155908 | |
| 18 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,crps,5,-1.9368094941411322e-05,-2.3007944910331856e-05,-1.5409470109624386e-05,-16.092711693289548,0.0,60,254334,-0.022363972668231383 | |
| 19 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.2240490455984515e-05,-5.995318328196668e-05,-4.467816778926572e-05,-21.496554045883126,0.0,60,254334,-0.03557991700256215 | |
| 20 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.146536948471436e-05,-8.10719457215334e-05,-6.089299580353895e-05,-21.139115703367146,0.0,120,254334,-0.035282173005673795 | |
| 21 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.0001025070409111588,-0.00011729799141644595,-8.693111605385492e-05,-16.287924162266016,0.0,240,254334,-0.036663080443325884 | |
| 22 | +mlp,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.2550470905121136e-05,-3.5151412222095e-05,-3.0036952371093844e-05,-40.016120029950514,0.0,60,254334,-0.03758541270384462 | |
| 23 | +mlp,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.49053869289627e-05,-6.015263483802953e-05,-5.030825546046181e-05,-39.91575754100544,0.0,60,254334,-0.03739492284384292 | |
| 24 | +mlp,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.47145880735615e-05,-8.191474633158112e-05,-6.84173160625575e-05,-32.51238845599446,0.0,120,254334,-0.036886299496749674 | |
| 25 | +mlp,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010253255161305498,-0.00011298939451658743,-9.263351200304767e-05,-23.838208952403562,0.0,240,254334,-0.03667220470354715 | |
| 26 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.389773182834551e-05,-3.650176668533826e-05,-3.117459160486823e-05,-33.12043648725768,0.0,60,254334,-0.03914106939362799 | |
| 27 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.6406029365404756e-05,-6.161870427315575e-05,-5.201708906924384e-05,-40.53852521114563,0.0,60,254334,-0.03841697935351748 | |
| 28 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.722461146902409e-05,-8.449368622920843e-05,-7.074165019071382e-05,-33.03415209481502,0.0,120,254334,-0.038125488216062764 | |
| 29 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010644463869503366,-0.00011742041577949303,-9.593554050674235e-05,-24.3909334508654,0.0,240,254334,-0.03807141750018019 | |
| 30 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.408470818840552e-05,-3.6804758008242913e-05,-3.138854788412516e-05,-32.996321854213434,0.0,60,254334,-0.03935696745787421 | |
| 31 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.697431744534152e-05,-6.241854117870695e-05,-5.2345342825275676e-05,-38.00993723026783,0.0,60,254334,-0.03880402860480144 | |
| 32 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.7504153750269e-05,-8.482713910265253e-05,-7.088508068962642e-05,-31.856853852640224,0.0,120,254334,-0.0382634971454281 | |
| 33 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010656855450942621,-0.000118039862856183,-9.556093571266248e-05,-23.101868455223897,0.0,240,254334,-0.038115737728633685 | |
| 34 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.417816541036671e-05,-3.699635883699846e-05,-3.151266780497306e-05,-32.967934780190554,0.0,60,254334,-0.03946488074330116 | |
| 35 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.694076150393374e-05,-6.23380984451125e-05,-5.240286882272373e-05,-38.09006348344424,0.0,60,254334,-0.03878117434750389 | |
| 36 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.725526917816366e-05,-8.427887803737327e-05,-7.091865894398307e-05,-32.22184495301381,0.0,120,254334,-0.0381406238069877 | |
| 37 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010649956295364702,-0.00011815143257060919,-9.514510495009396e-05,-23.323201844431846,0.0,240,254334,-0.038091061931371774 | |
| 38 | +ridge,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.6589734409864654e-05,-2.9924863498583743e-05,-2.338264740971625e-05,-25.345626494612304,0.0,60,254334,-0.030702663085686695 | |
| 39 | +ridge,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.53293693158241e-05,-6.074724451484393e-05,-5.044984965235268e-05,-32.65134895618141,0.0,60,254334,-0.037683688473786364 | |
| 40 | +ridge,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.754357900770254e-05,-8.590378192614514e-05,-6.97379127132041e-05,-27.530661528737642,0.0,120,254334,-0.03828296124060585 | |
| 41 | +ridge,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00011158602784222008,-0.00012437776435600612,-9.945381006938192e-05,-20.482042459444006,0.0,240,254334,-0.03991030741660171 | |
| 42 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.141855927130856e-05,-2.4308345392930743e-05,-1.8022125377074053e-05,-21.55615026517191,0.0,60,254334,-0.024731605022870373 | |
| 43 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,15,-4.0420377250422594e-05,-4.504760265092041e-05,-3.5908142302417106e-05,-24.62747530999729,0.0,60,254334,-0.0275294824996716 | |
| 44 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,30,-5.649553557441724e-05,-6.37781416153907e-05,-4.901701940237493e-05,-20.651743668341577,0.0,120,254334,-0.027891624636616884 | |
| 45 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,60,-8.269202927924011e-05,-9.448239852360723e-05,-7.15256830803281e-05,-15.962349989778787,0.0,240,254334,-0.029575963704914703 | |
| 46 | +tcn,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.3408952752190214e-05,-3.603640337074094e-05,-3.084537215377669e-05,-36.997658859360705,0.0,60,254334,-0.03857668544502557 | |
| 47 | +tcn,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.526419292945333e-05,-6.114069813577414e-05,-5.046273616023403e-05,-38.6151506621394,0.0,60,254334,-0.037639298185767285 | |
| 48 | +tcn,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.40317455097113e-05,-8.10948846723587e-05,-6.768334571118335e-05,-32.21552427675655,0.0,120,254334,-0.03654918279747124 | |
| 49 | +tcn,naive_rw,crps,60,-9.986055431393058e-05,-0.00011015629419555955,-8.986270330279154e-05,-23.828637840302765,0.0,240,254334,-0.03571652740517453 | |
added
results/metrics/final/compare_qlike_vs_naive_rw_final.csv
+49 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,reference,metric,H,diff,lo,hi,dm_t,dm_p,lag,n,rel_diff | |
| 2 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,qlike,5,0.054738282578246956,0.026905330135525464,0.08909811473559376,4.523936736039407,6.06998749508314e-06,240,1008425,54738282578.246956 | |
| 3 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.12144402667402539,-0.13377335375956426,-0.10830398592374559,-27.35376402768915,0.0,240,1008425,-121444026674.02539 | |
| 4 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.12486397655586672,-0.13832562658225114,-0.10859319132712085,-20.822959428273418,0.0,480,1008425,-124863976555.86671 | |
| 5 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.119813377905293,-0.13685962891705084,-0.09953976825035216,-15.062067858622644,0.0,960,1008425,-119813377905.29301 | |
| 6 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.13401604177657547,-0.1439071287742284,-0.1240559311215668,-34.4853508144363,0.0,240,1008425,-134016041776.57547 | |
| 7 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.11820625959028906,-0.12693494694347301,-0.10964520672111014,-36.9712655932992,0.0,240,1008425,-118206259590.28906 | |
| 8 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.09792149701524729,-0.10809316016982977,-0.08592415668694484,-19.65042442083056,0.0,480,1008425,-97921497015.24728 | |
| 9 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.07096098905937948,-0.08375346685998562,-0.05464189082103204,-10.395749737432645,0.0,960,1008425,-70960989059.37947 | |
| 10 | +garch_t,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.06502045053666214,-0.07391196793647806,-0.05644761894582024,-15.765579552830529,0.0,240,1008425,-65020450536.66214 | |
| 11 | +garch_t,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.056726081899340176,-0.06501654298587653,-0.048265925918750195,-17.882432244599045,0.0,240,1008425,-56726081899.34018 | |
| 12 | +garch_t,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.036866969845347694,-0.04842909984072641,-0.020796897084516687,-5.891349778401133,3.8305378868841444e-09,480,1008425,-36866969845.347694 | |
| 13 | +garch_t,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.006621504901724525,-0.02128556938914033,0.014561757662419844,-0.8125558945593854,0.4164727276753646,960,1008425,-6621504901.724525 | |
| 14 | +har_rv,naive_rw,qlike,5,0.03913236955668532,0.013989096134489344,0.07051505497144807,2.855923746466575,0.004291181809959355,240,1008425,39132369556.685326 | |
| 15 | +har_rv,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.10997388927703894,-0.12806512929938477,-0.08682195679324789,-12.385100387538769,0.0,240,1008425,-109973889277.03894 | |
| 16 | +har_rv,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.1110138247605922,-0.125876621514997,-0.09435732869851461,-16.437797708363455,0.0,480,1008425,-111013824760.5922 | |
| 17 | +har_rv,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.11022768398499255,-0.12556051044186373,-0.09074739566130664,-14.80267057608987,0.0,960,1008425,-110227683984.99255 | |
| 18 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,qlike,5,334.5266327599633,46.49620408762846,805.8177443663035,1.6121640581027892,0.10692624421029806,240,1008425,334526632759963.3 | |
| 19 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.07986186304322446,-0.10951306311772267,-0.04508202723533051,-5.382683940557516,7.338332475015363e-08,240,1008425,-79861863043.22446 | |
| 20 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.11651629022629176,-0.1375118636296816,-0.09046523984706441,-10.591247759814042,0.0,480,1008425,-116516290226.29176 | |
| 21 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.12817878377422134,-0.14390022015077353,-0.10727329188870581,-15.960085313107767,0.0,960,1008425,-128178783774.22134 | |
| 22 | +mlp,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.14720898574375213,-0.16292453674848553,-0.1263416904987355,-18.385240616576937,0.0,240,1008425,-147208985743.75214 | |
| 23 | +mlp,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.13512237008252892,-0.14983306601980223,-0.11521708062972226,-17.64419128057927,0.0,240,1008425,-135122370082.52892 | |
| 24 | +mlp,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.12538500544410844,-0.13984936701070633,-0.10810949744940103,-18.104913226709122,0.0,480,1008425,-125385005444.10844 | |
| 25 | +mlp,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.11631845999717298,-0.13233431564700732,-0.09659602889280332,-15.222885724634608,0.0,960,1008425,-116318459997.17299 | |
| 26 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.172392294005498,-0.1830202095586951,-0.1596923113322098,-40.47956787471667,0.0,240,1008425,-172392294005.498 | |
| 27 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.16046379760611443,-0.16892949959939835,-0.15137374290176955,-53.37279559941826,0.0,240,1008425,-160463797606.11444 | |
| 28 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14931279197542618,-0.1588424730531027,-0.13816016205379072,-36.315229072024984,0.0,480,1008425,-149312791975.42618 | |
| 29 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.13974559954094018,-0.1509500597026129,-0.1262387624016279,-26.508713825784202,0.0,960,1008425,-139745599540.9402 | |
| 30 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.1716356265865787,-0.1845657679457791,-0.15476358544093025,-31.414384860754353,0.0,240,1008425,-171635626586.5787 | |
| 31 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.15931251452952672,-0.1686757210956122,-0.14888767496800462,-45.755146000928654,0.0,240,1008425,-159312514529.52673 | |
| 32 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.1466267486292333,-0.15775393003747856,-0.1321598282588288,-27.576274728453257,0.0,480,1008425,-146626748629.2333 | |
| 33 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.1351982997021444,-0.14889389175482232,-0.11632266684163553,-19.197896342801386,0.0,960,1008425,-135198299702.1444 | |
| 34 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.17440754813666254,-0.18756473077571653,-0.15700566676741845,-31.036791884782236,0.0,240,1008425,-174407548136.66254 | |
| 35 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.1630589033313357,-0.1726750062729234,-0.15261677161542872,-47.83128646780368,0.0,240,1008425,-163058903331.3357 | |
| 36 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.15169985549993042,-0.16242158601681095,-0.1379985363153049,-31.1796723913576,0.0,480,1008425,-151699855499.93042 | |
| 37 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.14264208670641354,-0.15491871298937318,-0.12600456311160385,-22.790777766864974,0.0,960,1008425,-142642086706.41354 | |
| 38 | +ridge,naive_rw,qlike,5,0.054217765706775535,0.02628172523414525,0.08831465745525872,4.485284547270252,7.281669309522343e-06,240,1008425,54217765706.775536 | |
| 39 | +ridge,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.12163950482648311,-0.13394178084144814,-0.108632983408857,-27.449974893082842,0.0,240,1008425,-121639504826.48311 | |
| 40 | +ridge,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.12503369384123897,-0.13843850817733822,-0.10891530487046752,-21.008287623721092,0.0,480,1008425,-125033693841.23897 | |
| 41 | +ridge,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.11996364901816192,-0.136887274460463,-0.09978077215161443,-15.147345085612434,0.0,960,1008425,-119963649018.16193 | |
| 42 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.06363806176097872,-0.08489367875381518,-0.035087628809759804,-7.854747973933642,3.9968028886505635e-15,240,1008425,-63638061760.97872 | |
| 43 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.07197644638305717,-0.08560556136728345,-0.05696784550721889,-16.31744380363923,0.0,240,1008425,-71976446383.05717 | |
| 44 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.06261095459335803,-0.07966210626857369,-0.04039816885413622,-8.433972728635466,0.0,480,1008425,-62610954593.358025 | |
| 45 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.049905944131868114,-0.06858962843120663,-0.025571430395174153,-5.251575478478549,1.508037124064998e-07,960,1008425,-49905944131.86812 | |
| 46 | +tcn,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.16919024556944015,-0.18095238074498454,-0.15409481903228683,-34.170689594487065,0.0,240,1008425,-169190245569.44016 | |
| 47 | +tcn,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.15473009084858322,-0.16392850227548839,-0.14564157332862632,-48.79534506657927,0.0,240,1008425,-154730090848.58322 | |
| 48 | +tcn,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.1419558019041818,-0.15186552693019642,-0.1292504066376886,-31.290996933080237,0.0,480,1008425,-141955801904.1818 | |
| 49 | +tcn,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.12904396803622034,-0.14059489469625353,-0.11348823055968052,-21.99713417058296,0.0,960,1008425,-129043968036.22034 | |
added
results/metrics/final/compare_qlike_vs_naive_rw_final_heldout.csv
+49 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,reference,metric,H,diff,lo,hi,dm_t,dm_p,lag,n,rel_diff | |
| 2 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.010452089804383238,-0.034095983930703413,0.015974167617580894,-1.1131513012310887,0.26564345383127064,60,254334,-10452089804.383238 | |
| 3 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.14378492224890527,-0.15584771409389298,-0.13130103172678298,-34.1497302525294,0.0,60,254334,-143784922248.90527 | |
| 4 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14070621964178665,-0.15477948736493724,-0.12376875659804129,-22.29930561151515,0.0,120,254334,-140706219641.78665 | |
| 5 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.1316812545851258,-0.15009095114253002,-0.10932934619840264,-15.096856960295312,0.0,240,254334,-131681254585.12581 | |
| 6 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.14368387124373508,-0.15579232729861808,-0.13207976520734635,-32.314762609386605,0.0,60,254334,-143683871243.73508 | |
| 7 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.1288674927353374,-0.13915228327080448,-0.119299515905166,-35.14073066501273,0.0,60,254334,-128867492735.3374 | |
| 8 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.10692226543788798,-0.11814096371292171,-0.09366397909919273,-19.323774409288237,0.0,120,254334,-106922265437.88799 | |
| 9 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.07804644926948441,-0.09231273385610934,-0.06033851577450078,-10.346227451757924,0.0,240,254334,-78046449269.4844 | |
| 10 | +garch_t,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.09150495905868487,-0.1007235795343699,-0.08187028939302705,-18.947285777296322,0.0,60,254334,-91504959058.68488 | |
| 11 | +garch_t,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.0824164013816087,-0.09149326508145479,-0.07332205274115794,-22.77714971986192,0.0,60,254334,-82416401381.6087 | |
| 12 | +garch_t,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.060606701568978676,-0.07306700741176109,-0.04349708233091784,-9.181220619352032,0.0,120,254334,-60606701568.978676 | |
| 13 | +garch_t,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.02677412926831074,-0.042570868705594664,-0.0038085454550353445,-3.0757793167274676,0.002099531761761586,240,254334,-26774129268.310738 | |
| 14 | +har_rv,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.11991153797857569,-0.1298606408519841,-0.1101356104212441,-29.590977715792587,0.0,60,254334,-119911537978.5757 | |
| 15 | +har_rv,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.15408356847389032,-0.16396408551872832,-0.14451745691096665,-47.199886672971424,0.0,60,254334,-154083568473.89032 | |
| 16 | +har_rv,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14085402915508405,-0.1529483726794114,-0.12618203129370648,-25.91204099822389,0.0,120,254334,-140854029155.08405 | |
| 17 | +har_rv,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.12829576065389078,-0.14502635912069872,-0.10801596070778882,-15.775206606244092,0.0,240,254334,-128295760653.8908 | |
| 18 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,qlike,5,14.384427549940272,5.463065056712306,26.370036519576324,3.0224326017261927,0.002507519147988191,60,254334,14384427549940.271 | |
| 19 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.11074436016941672,-0.15045074765605954,-0.04396709817072144,-4.113207240136607,3.901997961142101e-05,60,254334,-110744360169.41672 | |
| 20 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14510585977166562,-0.15972832158029218,-0.12621483636274478,-21.100663623279033,0.0,120,254334,-145105859771.66562 | |
| 21 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.1381863153581714,-0.1555418703247236,-0.11469340092626744,-15.75694859703414,0.0,240,254334,-138186315358.17142 | |
| 22 | +mlp,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.17448222120920473,-0.18753727721725102,-0.15916962574445323,-34.21018610146251,0.0,60,254334,-174482221209.20474 | |
| 23 | +mlp,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.16543617998332089,-0.175492186570717,-0.15470429368886768,-47.516706501733005,0.0,60,254334,-165436179983.3209 | |
| 24 | +mlp,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.15403641955970648,-0.16491938307812043,-0.14042852282849552,-30.97280394735356,0.0,120,254334,-154036419559.70648 | |
| 25 | +mlp,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.14313813763982128,-0.15608936908523363,-0.1262797547572492,-21.415121781144432,0.0,240,254334,-143138137639.8213 | |
| 26 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.18449196322165062,-0.19722278323721273,-0.1697391066905685,-38.4061600501225,0.0,60,254334,-184491963221.65063 | |
| 27 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.17319294892507098,-0.18308906295757538,-0.16232718357409986,-49.99697301106789,0.0,60,254334,-173192948925.07098 | |
| 28 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.16088668851044352,-0.1716289132457927,-0.14839521888555252,-35.13891203005297,0.0,120,254334,-160886688510.4435 | |
| 29 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.14988730328170582,-0.16247533942879808,-0.134997177514687,-25.61749044806729,0.0,240,254334,-149887303281.70584 | |
| 30 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.18362352193653533,-0.1981626610579626,-0.16583243310549758,-30.545808711874695,0.0,60,254334,-183623521936.53534 | |
| 31 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.17231017095898393,-0.18337803583195444,-0.16005153900247265,-43.471269153443345,0.0,60,254334,-172310170958.98395 | |
| 32 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.1581379700959851,-0.1707700936440591,-0.14192925344954202,-27.167211579701195,0.0,120,254334,-158137970095.9851 | |
| 33 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.14506694663658706,-0.1600976404620416,-0.12446472711918649,-18.867806883589594,0.0,240,254334,-145066946636.58707 | |
| 34 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.1862454665763433,-0.20208637166379134,-0.1675346298911276,-29.398639777908198,0.0,60,254334,-186245466576.34332 | |
| 35 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.17586756948614737,-0.1873689590181809,-0.16332472785901322,-43.49840318292987,0.0,60,254334,-175867569486.14737 | |
| 36 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.16319208002183255,-0.1755812316466507,-0.1478883429255649,-29.773923663597397,0.0,120,254334,-163192080021.83255 | |
| 37 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.15332871126334904,-0.16733117514922358,-0.13544106067270567,-22.11636217808482,0.0,240,254334,-153328711263.34906 | |
| 38 | +ridge,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.010540180443973538,-0.03398984236258621,0.015641305528930723,-1.131363620594614,0.2579020768065403,60,254334,-10540180443.973537 | |
| 39 | +ridge,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.14400258822980347,-0.1559352633191173,-0.13159029220598734,-34.492300107758666,0.0,60,254334,-144002588229.80347 | |
| 40 | +ridge,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.1408311288029695,-0.15484760018173274,-0.1240331688304148,-22.505670520845445,0.0,120,254334,-140831128802.9695 | |
| 41 | +ridge,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.13172287575370575,-0.15012141934272208,-0.10952584505128922,-15.17897597491577,0.0,240,254334,-131722875753.70575 | |
| 42 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.0788129260633187,-0.10349586171652136,-0.04460414803193374,-8.082930270459277,6.661338147750939e-16,60,254334,-78812926063.31871 | |
| 43 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.08896570178640642,-0.10446037454808764,-0.071676950248028,-17.94009639669625,0.0,60,254334,-88965701786.40642 | |
| 44 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.07805191930785718,-0.09697825503264107,-0.05437221377558401,-9.799000838371036,0.0,120,254334,-78051919307.85718 | |
| 45 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.06357895926512992,-0.08501272928161778,-0.03667782437263962,-6.056796057676597,1.3885945726599402e-09,240,254334,-63578959265.12992 | |
| 46 | +tcn,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.1844358506209697,-0.19759047758610215,-0.16897869588860767,-35.21575696984104,0.0,60,254334,-184435850620.9697 | |
| 47 | +tcn,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.17109454564114937,-0.1817243864611085,-0.15998970428783438,-47.40097458836027,0.0,60,254334,-171094545641.14938 | |
| 48 | +tcn,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.1576004656940244,-0.16861817954811292,-0.14414388639891762,-31.960210349356995,0.0,120,254334,-157600465694.02438 | |
| 49 | +tcn,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.14452672740764153,-0.15710991754346196,-0.1283163744769397,-22.770167721959755,0.0,240,254334,-144526727407.64154 | |
added
results/metrics/final/compare_wis_vs_naive_rw_final.csv
+49 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,reference,metric,H,diff,lo,hi,dm_t,dm_p,lag,n,rel_diff | |
| 2 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,wis,5,-2.2639539176008336e-05,-2.5951671231779902e-05,-1.9469774767803257e-05,-21.067387026605203,0.0,240,1008425,-0.026444883996540658 | |
| 3 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,wis,15,-6.175379055787192e-05,-6.671731730741078e-05,-5.730427303176094e-05,-39.974704699951324,0.0,240,1008425,-0.04271671049057487 | |
| 4 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,wis,30,-8.592937991569569e-05,-9.326205046202697e-05,-7.879601583992457e-05,-32.69897692582357,0.0,480,1008425,-0.04313039679189178 | |
| 5 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00012436949643364562,-0.00013628703006679697,-0.00011258910649652745,-23.242755638640087,0.0,960,1008425,-0.04522159113173343 | |
| 6 | +ewma,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.1157114452531017e-05,-3.325709575282829e-05,-2.912445190546402e-05,-34.613818201106156,0.0,240,1008425,-0.03639412759060391 | |
| 7 | +ewma,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.343908318800816e-05,-5.987478805919343e-05,-4.871128810744575e-05,-30.642367914881703,0.0,240,1008425,-0.036965210148268444 | |
| 8 | +ewma,naive_rw,wis,30,-6.803701872393604e-05,-7.433670838355658e-05,-6.23875183087899e-05,-27.563734248559534,0.0,480,1008425,-0.03414971243804738 | |
| 9 | +ewma,naive_rw,wis,60,-8.489495992763272e-05,-9.437433555786534e-05,-7.427930121940094e-05,-17.497002809068167,0.0,960,1008425,-0.030868382337147705 | |
| 10 | +garch_t,naive_rw,wis,5,-2.9750014601042954e-05,-3.197500830405913e-05,-2.7713265160774506e-05,-28.9265720027651,0.0,240,1008425,-0.034750516735503806 | |
| 11 | +garch_t,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.4789525710231003e-05,-6.205055944208253e-05,-4.9580212586507727e-05,-25.186060681001194,0.0,240,1008425,-0.037899346526534886 | |
| 12 | +garch_t,naive_rw,wis,30,-6.877699975490743e-05,-7.496511499058666e-05,-6.298867566978817e-05,-26.73834575970599,0.0,480,1008425,-0.03452112993827351 | |
| 13 | +garch_t,naive_rw,wis,60,-8.26929341127665e-05,-9.310116157177831e-05,-7.270866330446751e-05,-15.688058591111094,0.0,960,1008425,-0.030067710838774863 | |
| 14 | +har_rv,naive_rw,wis,5,-1.7727369752398897e-05,-1.9508840843725837e-05,-1.595008196481154e-05,-21.2217643054197,0.0,240,1008425,-0.02070705737521236 | |
| 15 | +har_rv,naive_rw,wis,15,-6.104843687746571e-05,-6.608161163975061e-05,-5.682537666064949e-05,-42.716591597933416,0.0,240,1008425,-0.04222879891968697 | |
| 16 | +har_rv,naive_rw,wis,30,-8.424669192728868e-05,-9.160445579841183e-05,-7.734411352537715e-05,-33.06354369945672,0.0,480,1008425,-0.04228580789007325 | |
| 17 | +har_rv,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.0001223777331428787,-0.00013485008212607235,-0.00011029572345128931,-22.883903816712497,0.0,960,1008425,-0.044497372511017916 | |
| 18 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,wis,5,-2.1308142309022453e-05,-2.4546584728066363e-05,-1.800041763202569e-05,-19.51400956598913,0.0,240,1008425,-0.024889700588120806 | |
| 19 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.8294560562755734e-05,-6.401145841750503e-05,-5.347884135011585e-05,-32.075661188479685,0.0,240,1008425,-0.04032387071690603 | |
| 20 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,wis,30,-8.734847433261354e-05,-9.487882167326224e-05,-8.014893614579293e-05,-33.13644374152187,0.0,480,1008425,-0.04384268059222729 | |
| 21 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00012463961423752663,-0.00013811573036870192,-0.00011208978471065196,-22.80658307568783,0.0,960,1008425,-0.04531980779445849 | |
| 22 | +mlp,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.49130144558988e-05,-3.719311870991647e-05,-3.2882833118274985e-05,-49.623956094383345,0.0,240,1008425,-0.040781334376019586 | |
| 23 | +mlp,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.913442120815516e-05,-6.427084588956223e-05,-5.5027504536499e-05,-45.997410489546795,0.0,240,1008425,-0.040904824270005476 | |
| 24 | +mlp,naive_rw,wis,30,-8.017811951021808e-05,-8.64747890711675e-05,-7.45514696549524e-05,-39.38642333150976,0.0,480,1008425,-0.040243675817236674 | |
| 25 | +mlp,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00011072144120894125,-0.00012063912974298397,-0.00010095331321721167,-27.3321362902539,0.0,960,1008425,-0.04025906582759517 | |
| 26 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.596537187656366e-05,-3.824871368481071e-05,-3.369884629628549e-05,-38.582702405095446,0.0,240,1008425,-0.042010576265442516 | |
| 27 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.956069028390442e-05,-6.420505865063193e-05,-5.56599303843163e-05,-46.46332388754997,0.0,240,1008425,-0.041199685727664526 | |
| 28 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,wis,30,-8.090686961723716e-05,-8.715098330682663e-05,-7.504765105708977e-05,-39.247393955767386,0.0,480,1008425,-0.040609456197692156 | |
| 29 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00011194871049870233,-0.00012205939472977426,-0.00010221340704130427,-27.954527218728767,0.0,960,1008425,-0.04070530925240247 | |
| 30 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.624763531452284e-05,-3.8610563706687473e-05,-3.3969317989146265e-05,-38.284242957675026,0.0,240,1008425,-0.04234028367756182 | |
| 31 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,wis,15,-6.0222130748575724e-05,-6.5278105471722e-05,-5.6015115483042696e-05,-42.584937623921135,0.0,240,1008425,-0.04165722137982238 | |
| 32 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,wis,30,-8.165484095964115e-05,-8.813290459724934e-05,-7.583675559658784e-05,-37.78918160962185,0.0,480,1008425,-0.0409848842622086 | |
| 33 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00011254271622276719,-0.00012336805804845266,-0.00010146368904439823,-25.757342180514676,0.0,960,1008425,-0.04092129375627076 | |
| 34 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.621494363136794e-05,-3.866897819114995e-05,-3.390084580293959e-05,-38.100515243928974,0.0,240,1008425,-0.04230209704478798 | |
| 35 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,wis,15,-6.0019962447079074e-05,-6.519951459636001e-05,-5.585625960961621e-05,-42.826395456901025,0.0,240,1008425,-0.041517376283231745 | |
| 36 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,wis,30,-8.117633592056323e-05,-8.751264193388739e-05,-7.536997438383697e-05,-38.124587405112386,0.0,480,1008425,-0.04074470899011193 | |
| 37 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00011242908090172963,-0.00012321397757349885,-0.0001011724919986471,-26.21702594598516,0.0,960,1008425,-0.04087997518400473 | |
| 38 | +ridge,naive_rw,wis,5,-2.2671845432163225e-05,-2.599101494732098e-05,-1.9490187880233183e-05,-21.13029623027298,0.0,240,1008425,-0.026482620418193794 | |
| 39 | +ridge,naive_rw,wis,15,-6.186013260713782e-05,-6.682596280302264e-05,-5.7522316831625344e-05,-40.153889112938934,0.0,240,1008425,-0.04279027006465815 | |
| 40 | +ridge,naive_rw,wis,30,-8.584587345174057e-05,-9.321816349728273e-05,-7.873032044846091e-05,-32.695698837120176,0.0,480,1008425,-0.04308848252544874 | |
| 41 | +ridge,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.000124346280644279,-0.00013626824826359785,-0.00011255180583313542,-23.282423543772175,0.0,960,1008425,-0.04521314971350274 | |
| 42 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,wis,5,-2.2180178417679252e-05,-2.4752125519358832e-05,-1.928554260125753e-05,-25.6029723804651,0.0,240,1008425,-0.025908312034004916 | |
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added
results/metrics/final/compare_wis_vs_naive_rw_final_heldout.csv
+49 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,reference,metric,H,diff,lo,hi,dm_t,dm_p,lag,n,rel_diff | |
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| 3 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.243804546412068e-05,-5.803157732075363e-05,-4.7544244586349916e-05,-31.258544177069215,0.0,60,254334,-0.03953953332358754 | |
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added
results/metrics/final/garch_params.json
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/leaderboard_final.csv
+53 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,H,n,n_days,crps,crps_lo,crps_hi,crps_scaled,crps_scaled_lo,crps_scaled_hi,wis,wis_lo,wis_hi,qloss,qloss_lo,qloss_hi,mae,mae_lo,mae_hi,mse,mse_lo,mse_hi,qlike,qlike_lo,qlike_hi,brier_tail,brier_tail_lo,brier_tail_hi,sharpness,sharpness_lo,sharpness_hi,logscore,logscore_lo,logscore_hi,crps_closed,crps_closed_lo,crps_closed_hi,dir_acc,tail_rate,cov_50,cov_80,cov_95,pit_ks,pit_chi2_p,pit_var | |
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| 53 | +tcn,60,1008425,249,0.002936964945991356,0.0027818561642766197,0.003114256664094733,0.4270715387117422,0.41687862675697096,0.43796421796053175,0.0026483354675716953,0.002506040804031384,0.002815879506183889,0.0011475869294654834,0.001083699587811995,0.0012237426109678968,0.004039315747893596,0.0038317126506167403,0.004264502490509297,4.900513513271473e-05,4.0413108311609214e-05,6.061419710477204e-05,-9.829131564099772,-9.900876646642317,-9.75829514903121,0.009798380147259339,0.008043730226598218,0.011861155153774448,0.019005611538887024,0.018285872023349477,0.019753543459754785,,,,,,,0.5010018616151999,0.00998091082628852,0.590517886803679,0.8608275280759601,0.9641599524010214,0.04661981900837625,0.0,0.06821355195938135 | |
added
results/metrics/final/leaderboard_final_heldout.csv
+53 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,H,n,n_days,crps,crps_lo,crps_hi,crps_scaled,crps_scaled_lo,crps_scaled_hi,wis,wis_lo,wis_hi,qloss,qloss_lo,qloss_hi,mae,mae_lo,mae_hi,mse,mse_lo,mse_hi,qlike,qlike_lo,qlike_hi,brier_tail,brier_tail_lo,brier_tail_hi,sharpness,sharpness_lo,sharpness_hi,logscore,logscore_lo,logscore_hi,crps_closed,crps_closed_lo,crps_closed_hi,dir_acc,tail_rate,cov_50,cov_80,cov_95,pit_ks,pit_chi2_p,pit_var | |
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| 27 | +mrpt_base,15,254334,249,0.0014118517648341327,0.001320797402743426,0.001508561349242351,0.45194948551114256,0.44335178814272364,0.4612940334774899,0.0012717565896585715,0.001189069549002512,0.0013599797499925898,0.0005486882926692714,0.0005123945126613759,0.0005877307107538227,0.001965005691977974,0.0018409250899124254,0.0020936052794398577,1.2011985302349746e-05,8.772260486843862e-06,1.5936212683389175e-05,-11.299969301860925,-11.371500344132118,-11.22635359609321,0.012988062252785709,0.011464801107205094,0.014752158835299041,0.008500587195158005,0.008100266274769183,0.00893055796488088,,,,,,,0.49950456808447824,0.013600226473849347,0.5574126935447089,0.839337249443645,0.9581377244096346,0.031677625087937034,0.0,0.0737617139036298 | |
| 28 | +mrpt_base,30,254334,249,0.0019483130296853875,0.0018301643424704726,0.00206933640248764,0.44287431104880376,0.4330659103626591,0.452932187018469,0.00175475179653574,0.0016468774457318962,0.0018669381731413182,0.000756430010634559,0.0007091630548540395,0.0008073537503145111,0.002717152630908843,0.0025526753669228995,0.002883493620626411,2.153400495068908e-05,1.6553795948473386e-05,2.805103977069229e-05,-10.626793383785632,-10.69978214528276,-10.551553956488135,0.011674230637665433,0.009995770251501645,0.013412826859325558,0.011884589679539204,0.011327364271497577,0.012485711177634218,,,,,,,0.5011955771668833,0.0121179236751673,0.5610810980836223,0.8445823208851353,0.9590499107472851,0.033698822128508166,0.0,0.07291011758738412 | |
| 29 | +mrpt_base,60,254334,249,0.002689475389618329,0.0025061567425384746,0.0028939356266245234,0.43170211387111807,0.4203043800138197,0.44382368051913273,0.002424484615871341,0.0022571358931772335,0.002616173456867893,0.001047764749208475,0.000973186364993043,0.0011340258447781124,0.003732968168236263,0.003491136144979783,0.003983944651714354,4.138909047028155e-05,3.046722151516526e-05,5.722490578385263e-05,-9.964926129399522,-10.037865052114741,-9.884926524018805,0.010183245751649405,0.008185045904679684,0.012590843604810753,0.01647782139480114,0.015704176483598117,0.017317916235433238,,,,,,,0.5015598072381439,0.010411506129734915,0.5694873670055911,0.8486281818396282,0.9592032524161143,0.0377742480542326,0.0,0.07169082214732388 | |
| 30 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,5,254334,249,0.0008319552941285449,0.0007847750733022697,0.0008851962016648376,0.4644403610339978,0.4556072557622713,0.473326628316937,0.0007490928047636696,0.0007065289573248855,0.0007979328011299813,0.00032276442208891424,0.0003043285479577973,0.000344379786171522,0.0011588878194025835,0.0010943677029163113,0.0012293340327820621,4.077627439031059e-06,3.128652435700073e-06,5.36799425257643e-06,-12.368125998506969,-12.447880319153795,-12.282528817513725,0.014694854010867602,0.013252759349885243,0.01616136660522284,0.004919771570712328,0.00468785537809112,0.005167366237439955,,,,,,,0.5016479323502114,0.015691964110185818,0.5364992490190065,0.8248012456061714,0.9552399600525293,0.02338465930727271,0.0,0.07720824513221358 | |
| 31 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,15,254334,249,0.001411283476754196,0.0013204506442594842,0.0015075149664025937,0.4518061575673052,0.44325225403142626,0.46112982751787013,0.0012711061249402484,0.0011886856592296063,0.0013587267127151226,0.0005482538118425003,0.0005120504249061627,0.0005869121605632838,0.001965070507041312,0.0018415494688755168,0.0020940438286747975,1.2005383664627125e-05,8.77077940879206e-06,1.5919955525888337e-05,-11.299086523894838,-11.370377847732822,-11.224704176956424,0.012933101256615318,0.011421750426854008,0.014658263826895912,0.008472892455756664,0.00807478155087625,0.008899116975819608,,,,,,,0.49960972098083384,0.013600226473849347,0.5559972319862857,0.8376072408722388,0.9575833352992522,0.03057955270637913,0.0,0.07410486970467024 | |
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| 34 | +mrpt_small,5,254334,249,0.0008318618369065837,0.0007847183667565747,0.0008851570102715352,0.46435815015330095,0.45557512576683257,0.47320041866874096,0.0007489556122227828,0.000706431563359396,0.0007978019294687868,0.00032266991127213076,0.0003042164771930269,0.00034427913876297183,0.0011590792629478804,0.001094694251716806,0.0012294133755682121,4.074011657415477e-06,3.1299730105089133e-06,5.359495768887215e-06,-12.370747943146776,-12.450417027652358,-12.28515404871602,0.014678413228274631,0.013236236759565166,0.016147986405176624,0.004954489413648844,0.004719571373917164,0.005206760113505348,,,,,,,0.5002289367845726,0.015691964110185818,0.5387679193501459,0.8276675552619783,0.9562386468187501,0.024081567974066298,0.0,0.07673042402283478 | |
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added
results/metrics/final/pairwise_final.csv
+121 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,reference,metric,H,diff,lo,hi,dm_t,dm_p,lag,n,rel_diff,p_holm,p_bh | |
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added
results/metrics/final/pairwise_final_heldout.csv
+97 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,reference,metric,H,diff,lo,hi,dm_t,dm_p,lag,n,rel_diff,p_holm,p_bh | |
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| 86 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.417816541036671e-05,-3.699635883699846e-05,-3.151266780497306e-05,-32.967934780190554,0.0,60,254334,-0.03946488074330116,0.0,0.0 | |
| 87 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.694076150393374e-05,-6.23380984451125e-05,-5.240286882272373e-05,-38.09006348344424,0.0,60,254334,-0.03878117434750389,0.0,0.0 | |
| 88 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.725526917816366e-05,-8.427887803737327e-05,-7.091865894398307e-05,-32.22184495301381,0.0,120,254334,-0.0381406238069877,0.0,0.0 | |
| 89 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010649956295364702,-0.00011815143257060919,-9.514510495009396e-05,-23.323201844431846,0.0,240,254334,-0.038091061931371774,0.0,0.0 | |
| 90 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,wis,5,-3.323170379270083e-05,-3.5974862442330806e-05,-3.0558683104864925e-05,-30.06106398556616,0.0,60,254334,-0.04248560813026913,0.0,0.0 | |
| 91 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,wis,15,-5.512982873568563e-05,-6.110262281413639e-05,-5.0516180811630366e-05,-35.501777575170365,0.0,60,254334,-0.04156920192438886,0.0,0.0 | |
| 92 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,wis,30,-7.400292442062073e-05,-8.111029028061671e-05,-6.762749765031365e-05,-30.978452035000043,0.0,120,254334,-0.04046971764784304,0.0,0.0 | |
| 93 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00010070267917585592,-0.00011286009922796027,-8.863680154186604e-05,-21.164401081595848,0.0,240,254334,-0.03988014753507005,0.0,0.0 | |
| 94 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.1862454665763433,-0.20208637166379134,-0.1675346298911276,-29.398639777908198,0.0,60,254334,-186245466576.34332,0.0,0.0 | |
| 95 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.17586756948614737,-0.1873689590181809,-0.16332472785901322,-43.49840318292987,0.0,60,254334,-175867569486.14737,0.0,0.0 | |
| 96 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.16319208002183255,-0.1755812316466507,-0.1478883429255649,-29.773923663597397,0.0,120,254334,-163192080021.83255,0.0,0.0 | |
| 97 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.15332871126334904,-0.16733117514922358,-0.13544106067270567,-22.11636217808482,0.0,240,254334,-153328711263.34906,0.0,0.0 | |
added
results/metrics/final/run_meta_final.json
+351 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,351 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
| 2 | + "config": { | |
| 3 | + "name": "final", | |
| 4 | + "description": "Untouched final chronological test (2025) and held-out instruments; models and baselines re-used from the main study without any re-tuning. Run once.", | |
| 5 | + "paths": { | |
| 6 | + "cache": "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp41-cache", | |
| 7 | + "root": "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp41_uqo" | |
| 8 | + }, | |
| 9 | + "universe": { | |
| 10 | + "manifest": "data/manifests/universe_main.json", | |
| 11 | + "symbols_from": "all" | |
| 12 | + }, | |
| 13 | + "data": { | |
| 14 | + "dataset_stock": "market_bars.stock.1m.raw", | |
| 15 | + "dataset_etf": "market_bars.etf.1m.raw", | |
| 16 | + "start": "2018-01-02", | |
| 17 | + "end": "2025-12-31", | |
| 18 | + "warmup_sessions": 21 | |
| 19 | + }, | |
| 20 | + "windows": { | |
| 21 | + "L_A": 390, | |
| 22 | + "L_B": 390, | |
| 23 | + "L_C": 260, | |
| 24 | + "H": 60, | |
| 25 | + "m_min": 30, | |
| 26 | + "min_future_present": 0.8 | |
| 27 | + }, | |
| 28 | + "splits": { | |
| 29 | + "train_end": "2022-12-31", | |
| 30 | + "val_end": "2023-12-31", | |
| 31 | + "test_end": "2024-12-31", | |
| 32 | + "final_end": "2025-12-31", | |
| 33 | + "embargo_sessions": 1 | |
| 34 | + }, | |
| 35 | + "train": { | |
| 36 | + "model": "small", | |
| 37 | + "batch_size": 64, | |
| 38 | + "max_steps": 12000, | |
| 39 | + "lr": 0.0003, | |
| 40 | + "warmup_steps": 400, | |
| 41 | + "weight_decay": 0.01, | |
| 42 | + "grad_clip": 1.0, | |
| 43 | + "eval_every": 1000, | |
| 44 | + "patience": 4, | |
| 45 | + "origins_per_session": 2, | |
| 46 | + "seed": 1, | |
| 47 | + "num_workers": 10, | |
| 48 | + "eval_batch_size": 256, | |
| 49 | + "val_max_batches": 60 | |
| 50 | + }, | |
| 51 | + "eval": { | |
| 52 | + "stride": 15, | |
| 53 | + "horizons": [ | |
| 54 | + 5, | |
| 55 | + 15, | |
| 56 | + 30, | |
| 57 | + 60 | |
| 58 | + ], | |
| 59 | + "n_samples": 200 | |
| 60 | + }, | |
| 61 | + "baselines": [ | |
| 62 | + "naive", | |
| 63 | + "har", | |
| 64 | + "garch", | |
| 65 | + "trees" | |
| 66 | + ], | |
| 67 | + "reference": "naive_rw", | |
| 68 | + "models": [ | |
| 69 | + { | |
| 70 | + "name": "mrpt_small", | |
| 71 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 72 | + "kwargs": {}, | |
| 73 | + "feature_set": "full" | |
| 74 | + }, | |
| 75 | + { | |
| 76 | + "name": "mrpt_small_1m_only", | |
| 77 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 78 | + "kwargs": { | |
| 79 | + "branches": [ | |
| 80 | + "A" | |
| 81 | + ] | |
| 82 | + }, | |
| 83 | + "feature_set": "full" | |
| 84 | + }, | |
| 85 | + { | |
| 86 | + "name": "mrpt_base", | |
| 87 | + "preset": "base", | |
| 88 | + "kwargs": {}, | |
| 89 | + "feature_set": "full" | |
| 90 | + }, | |
| 91 | + { | |
| 92 | + "name": "tcn", | |
| 93 | + "kind": "tcn" | |
| 94 | + }, | |
| 95 | + { | |
| 96 | + "name": "mlp", | |
| 97 | + "kind": "mlp" | |
| 98 | + } | |
| 99 | + ] | |
| 100 | + }, | |
| 101 | + "symbols": [ | |
| 102 | + "ABT", | |
| 103 | + "ACH", | |
| 104 | + "ACM", | |
| 105 | + "ADP", | |
| 106 | + "AG", | |
| 107 | + "AGG", | |
| 108 | + "ALB", | |
| 109 | + "ALK", | |
| 110 | + "AM", | |
| 111 | + "AMLP", | |
| 112 | + "APA", | |
| 113 | + "ARCC", | |
| 114 | + "ARKK", | |
| 115 | + "ARMK", | |
| 116 | + "AU", | |
| 117 | + "AUPH", | |
| 118 | + "AXTA", | |
| 119 | + "BB", | |
| 120 | + "BCE", | |
| 121 | + "BDN", | |
| 122 | + "BF.B", | |
| 123 | + "BHP", | |
| 124 | + "BKD", | |
| 125 | + "BLDR", | |
| 126 | + "BLMN", | |
| 127 | + "BND", | |
| 128 | + "BOX", | |
| 129 | + "BTU", | |
| 130 | + "CAH", | |
| 131 | + "CB", | |
| 132 | + "CG", | |
| 133 | + "CHD", | |
| 134 | + "CHTR", | |
| 135 | + "CI", | |
| 136 | + "CMCSA", | |
| 137 | + "CME", | |
| 138 | + "CNC", | |
| 139 | + "CNDT", | |
| 140 | + "CNO", | |
| 141 | + "CNX", | |
| 142 | + "COR", | |
| 143 | + "CPRT", | |
| 144 | + "CVBF", | |
| 145 | + "CVE", | |
| 146 | + "CX", | |
| 147 | + "CZR", | |
| 148 | + "D", | |
| 149 | + "DB", | |
| 150 | + "DBC", | |
| 151 | + "DDD", | |
| 152 | + "DGX", | |
| 153 | + "DHI", | |
| 154 | + "DIS", | |
| 155 | + "DKS", | |
| 156 | + "DLR", | |
| 157 | + "DXC", | |
| 158 | + "EBS", | |
| 159 | + "EFX", | |
| 160 | + "EHC", | |
| 161 | + "EMLC", | |
| 162 | + "EMN", | |
| 163 | + "EOG", | |
| 164 | + "EQNR", | |
| 165 | + "EQT", | |
| 166 | + "ERIC", | |
| 167 | + "EWA", | |
| 168 | + "EWT", | |
| 169 | + "EWY", | |
| 170 | + "FAST", | |
| 171 | + "FAZ", | |
| 172 | + "FEZ", | |
| 173 | + "FHN", | |
| 174 | + "FLR", | |
| 175 | + "FPE", | |
| 176 | + "FSLR", | |
| 177 | + "FXI", | |
| 178 | + "GDDY", | |
| 179 | + "GEO", | |
| 180 | + "GIL", | |
| 181 | + "GLD", | |
| 182 | + "GLNG", | |
| 183 | + "GNTX", | |
| 184 | + "GOOGL", | |
| 185 | + "GOOS", | |
| 186 | + "GPC", | |
| 187 | + "GSAT", | |
| 188 | + "GTN", | |
| 189 | + "HAL", | |
| 190 | + "HMC", | |
| 191 | + "HOMB", | |
| 192 | + "HOPE", | |
| 193 | + "HSBC", | |
| 194 | + "HSIC", | |
| 195 | + "HXL", | |
| 196 | + "IEF", | |
| 197 | + "IGSB", | |
| 198 | + "ILF", | |
| 199 | + "INDA", | |
| 200 | + "IRBT", | |
| 201 | + "IRDM", | |
| 202 | + "ITUB", | |
| 203 | + "IVE", | |
| 204 | + "IVZ", | |
| 205 | + "IWF", | |
| 206 | + "IXUS", | |
| 207 | + "IYE", | |
| 208 | + "J", | |
| 209 | + "JPM", | |
| 210 | + "KBE", | |
| 211 | + "KBR", | |
| 212 | + "KBWB", | |
| 213 | + "KIM", | |
| 214 | + "KLAC", | |
| 215 | + "KMI", | |
| 216 | + "KSS", | |
| 217 | + "LBTYA", | |
| 218 | + "LDOS", | |
| 219 | + "LEN", | |
| 220 | + "LNT", | |
| 221 | + "LOW", | |
| 222 | + "LQD", | |
| 223 | + "LRCX", | |
| 224 | + "LYG", | |
| 225 | + "M", | |
| 226 | + "MAA", | |
| 227 | + "MAC", | |
| 228 | + "MINT", | |
| 229 | + "MOMO", | |
| 230 | + "MPC", | |
| 231 | + "MRSH", | |
| 232 | + "MUR", | |
| 233 | + "MUX", | |
| 234 | + "NAVI", | |
| 235 | + "NEM", | |
| 236 | + "NI", | |
| 237 | + "NOW", | |
| 238 | + "NRG", | |
| 239 | + "NTNX", | |
| 240 | + "ODFL", | |
| 241 | + "OIH", | |
| 242 | + "OKE", | |
| 243 | + "OPLN", | |
| 244 | + "OPTU", | |
| 245 | + "OXY", | |
| 246 | + "PAGP", | |
| 247 | + "PANW", | |
| 248 | + "PBA", | |
| 249 | + "PBR", | |
| 250 | + "PBR.A", | |
| 251 | + "PDBC", | |
| 252 | + "PEP", | |
| 253 | + "PFF", | |
| 254 | + "PFG", | |
| 255 | + "PFGC", | |
| 256 | + "PHM", | |
| 257 | + "PK", | |
| 258 | + "POR", | |
| 259 | + "PWR", | |
| 260 | + "RCI", | |
| 261 | + "RIO", | |
| 262 | + "RIOT", | |
| 263 | + "ROL", | |
| 264 | + "ROST", | |
| 265 | + "RPM", | |
| 266 | + "RUN", | |
| 267 | + "SABR", | |
| 268 | + "SAN", | |
| 269 | + "SBH", | |
| 270 | + "SBSW", | |
| 271 | + "SBUX", | |
| 272 | + "SCHG", | |
| 273 | + "SCO", | |
| 274 | + "SDOW", | |
| 275 | + "SDS", | |
| 276 | + "SFM", | |
| 277 | + "SH", | |
| 278 | + "SHEL", | |
| 279 | + "SHV", | |
| 280 | + "SHW", | |
| 281 | + "SJNK", | |
| 282 | + "SLF", | |
| 283 | + "SMFG", | |
| 284 | + "SPDW", | |
| 285 | + "SPEM", | |
| 286 | + "SPGI", | |
| 287 | + "SPWR", | |
| 288 | + "SPY", | |
| 289 | + "SPYD", | |
| 290 | + "SRPT", | |
| 291 | + "SSNC", | |
| 292 | + "STAG", | |
| 293 | + "TAP", | |
| 294 | + "TDC", | |
| 295 | + "TEL", | |
| 296 | + "TIP", | |
| 297 | + "TJX", | |
| 298 | + "TMO", | |
| 299 | + "TNA", | |
| 300 | + "TPR", | |
| 301 | + "TRI", | |
| 302 | + "TTE", | |
| 303 | + "TU", | |
| 304 | + "TXRH", | |
| 305 | + "UNFI", | |
| 306 | + "UPRO", | |
| 307 | + "URBN", | |
| 308 | + "USFD", | |
| 309 | + "USMV", | |
| 310 | + "VALE", | |
| 311 | + "VDE", | |
| 312 | + "VEU", | |
| 313 | + "VFH", | |
| 314 | + "VGK", | |
| 315 | + "VIAV", | |
| 316 | + "VIG", | |
| 317 | + "VIV", | |
| 318 | + "VNQ", | |
| 319 | + "VTEB", | |
| 320 | + "VTR", | |
| 321 | + "VWO", | |
| 322 | + "VXX", | |
| 323 | + "VZ", | |
| 324 | + "WAB", | |
| 325 | + "WDAY", | |
| 326 | + "WEN", | |
| 327 | + "WERN", | |
| 328 | + "WES", | |
| 329 | + "WIT", | |
| 330 | + "WTRG", | |
| 331 | + "WU", | |
| 332 | + "WWW", | |
| 333 | + "WY", | |
| 334 | + "XBI", | |
| 335 | + "XLP", | |
| 336 | + "XLU", | |
| 337 | + "XME", | |
| 338 | + "XPO", | |
| 339 | + "XYL", | |
| 340 | + "ZION", | |
| 341 | + "ZTO" | |
| 342 | + ], | |
| 343 | + "origins": { | |
| 344 | + "train": 586202, | |
| 345 | + "val": 1040345, | |
| 346 | + "test": 986468, | |
| 347 | + "final": 1008425 | |
| 348 | + }, | |
| 349 | + "eval_split": "final", | |
| 350 | + "heldout": false | |
| 351 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/run_meta_final_heldout.json
+171 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,171 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
| 2 | + "config": { | |
| 3 | + "name": "final", | |
| 4 | + "description": "Untouched final chronological test (2025) and held-out instruments; models and baselines re-used from the main study without any re-tuning. Run once.", | |
| 5 | + "paths": { | |
| 6 | + "cache": "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp41-cache", | |
| 7 | + "root": "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp41_uqo" | |
| 8 | + }, | |
| 9 | + "universe": { | |
| 10 | + "manifest": "data/manifests/universe_main.json", | |
| 11 | + "symbols_from": "all" | |
| 12 | + }, | |
| 13 | + "data": { | |
| 14 | + "dataset_stock": "market_bars.stock.1m.raw", | |
| 15 | + "dataset_etf": "market_bars.etf.1m.raw", | |
| 16 | + "start": "2018-01-02", | |
| 17 | + "end": "2025-12-31", | |
| 18 | + "warmup_sessions": 21 | |
| 19 | + }, | |
| 20 | + "windows": { | |
| 21 | + "L_A": 390, | |
| 22 | + "L_B": 390, | |
| 23 | + "L_C": 260, | |
| 24 | + "H": 60, | |
| 25 | + "m_min": 30, | |
| 26 | + "min_future_present": 0.8 | |
| 27 | + }, | |
| 28 | + "splits": { | |
| 29 | + "train_end": "2022-12-31", | |
| 30 | + "val_end": "2023-12-31", | |
| 31 | + "test_end": "2024-12-31", | |
| 32 | + "final_end": "2025-12-31", | |
| 33 | + "embargo_sessions": 1 | |
| 34 | + }, | |
| 35 | + "train": { | |
| 36 | + "model": "small", | |
| 37 | + "batch_size": 64, | |
| 38 | + "max_steps": 12000, | |
| 39 | + "lr": 0.0003, | |
| 40 | + "warmup_steps": 400, | |
| 41 | + "weight_decay": 0.01, | |
| 42 | + "grad_clip": 1.0, | |
| 43 | + "eval_every": 1000, | |
| 44 | + "patience": 4, | |
| 45 | + "origins_per_session": 2, | |
| 46 | + "seed": 1, | |
| 47 | + "num_workers": 10, | |
| 48 | + "eval_batch_size": 256, | |
| 49 | + "val_max_batches": 60 | |
| 50 | + }, | |
| 51 | + "eval": { | |
| 52 | + "stride": 15, | |
| 53 | + "horizons": [ | |
| 54 | + 5, | |
| 55 | + 15, | |
| 56 | + 30, | |
| 57 | + 60 | |
| 58 | + ], | |
| 59 | + "n_samples": 200 | |
| 60 | + }, | |
| 61 | + "baselines": [ | |
| 62 | + "naive", | |
| 63 | + "har", | |
| 64 | + "garch", | |
| 65 | + "trees" | |
| 66 | + ], | |
| 67 | + "reference": "naive_rw", | |
| 68 | + "models": [ | |
| 69 | + { | |
| 70 | + "name": "mrpt_small", | |
| 71 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 72 | + "kwargs": {}, | |
| 73 | + "feature_set": "full" | |
| 74 | + }, | |
| 75 | + { | |
| 76 | + "name": "mrpt_small_1m_only", | |
| 77 | + "preset": "small", | |
| 78 | + "kwargs": { | |
| 79 | + "branches": [ | |
| 80 | + "A" | |
| 81 | + ] | |
| 82 | + }, | |
| 83 | + "feature_set": "full" | |
| 84 | + }, | |
| 85 | + { | |
| 86 | + "name": "mrpt_base", | |
| 87 | + "preset": "base", | |
| 88 | + "kwargs": {}, | |
| 89 | + "feature_set": "full" | |
| 90 | + }, | |
| 91 | + { | |
| 92 | + "name": "tcn", | |
| 93 | + "kind": "tcn" | |
| 94 | + }, | |
| 95 | + { | |
| 96 | + "name": "mlp", | |
| 97 | + "kind": "mlp" | |
| 98 | + } | |
| 99 | + ] | |
| 100 | + }, | |
| 101 | + "symbols": [ | |
| 102 | + "ACAD", | |
| 103 | + "AEE", | |
| 104 | + "AEP", | |
| 105 | + "AVT", | |
| 106 | + "BDX", | |
| 107 | + "BHC", | |
| 108 | + "BOTZ", | |
| 109 | + "BRK.B", | |
| 110 | + "CAKE", | |
| 111 | + "CAT", | |
| 112 | + "CNI", | |
| 113 | + "CVNA", | |
| 114 | + "ENB", | |
| 115 | + "FNV", | |
| 116 | + "FTI", | |
| 117 | + "GPK", | |
| 118 | + "H", | |
| 119 | + "HD", | |
| 120 | + "HDB", | |
| 121 | + "HLF", | |
| 122 | + "HTGC", | |
| 123 | + "IAU", | |
| 124 | + "ING", | |
| 125 | + "ITB", | |
| 126 | + "KBH", | |
| 127 | + "KRG", | |
| 128 | + "LKQ", | |
| 129 | + "MCK", | |
| 130 | + "MSFT", | |
| 131 | + "MTZ", | |
| 132 | + "ORCL", | |
| 133 | + "PDM", | |
| 134 | + "PSQ", | |
| 135 | + "PTEN", | |
| 136 | + "RBA", | |
| 137 | + "SCHA", | |
| 138 | + "SCHF", | |
| 139 | + "SCHH", | |
| 140 | + "SOXX", | |
| 141 | + "SPHD", | |
| 142 | + "SPSB", | |
| 143 | + "SSO", | |
| 144 | + "SYY", | |
| 145 | + "TLT", | |
| 146 | + "TOL", | |
| 147 | + "TROW", | |
| 148 | + "TSCO", | |
| 149 | + "TZA", | |
| 150 | + "UAL", | |
| 151 | + "UDOW", | |
| 152 | + "UE", | |
| 153 | + "VEA", | |
| 154 | + "VMBS", | |
| 155 | + "VMC", | |
| 156 | + "W", | |
| 157 | + "WMT", | |
| 158 | + "WRB", | |
| 159 | + "XLRE", | |
| 160 | + "XRT", | |
| 161 | + "YUM" | |
| 162 | + ], | |
| 163 | + "origins": { | |
| 164 | + "train": 146119, | |
| 165 | + "val": 266237, | |
| 166 | + "test": 250322, | |
| 167 | + "final": 254334 | |
| 168 | + }, | |
| 169 | + "eval_split": "final", | |
| 170 | + "heldout": true | |
| 171 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/stress_calibration_final.csv
+81 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,81 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,H,days,n,cov_50,cov_80,cov_95,pit_var,pit_ks,crps,crps_scaled | |
| 2 | +ewma,5,stress,101561,0.5173344098620534,0.8235838560077196,0.9677435235966562,0.07868632481903207,0.015580088577015039,0.001560950704799081,0.47902872589559814 | |
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| 26 | +lightgbm,5,stress,101561,0.3663118716830279,0.6600663640570692,0.8968304762654956,0.1109478716865296,0.08104294372207366,0.0015840945490779852,0.48580300340803173 | |
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| 66 | +naive_rw,5,stress,101561,0.6320536426384143,0.8783982040350135,0.9619538996268252,0.06263455878113555,0.06822946960697035,0.0016142885214220398,0.4941455250788122 | |
| 67 | +naive_rw,5,normal,906864,0.6455620688438398,0.8821024982797862,0.9644026006104554,0.06074393923420874,0.07519622378531055,0.0008731119893390489,0.4738687622728497 | |
| 68 | +naive_rw,15,stress,101561,0.6429830348263605,0.8845324484792391,0.9642973188527092,0.061006685033460774,0.07193794951008908,0.0027935507967629235,0.48837062067570397 | |
| 69 | +naive_rw,15,normal,906864,0.6581780730076395,0.8923543111205209,0.9694000423437252,0.058347701490631204,0.08058638199121176,0.0014668673375158679,0.4591962296889001 | |
| 70 | +naive_rw,30,stress,101561,0.6422248697826922,0.8935024271127696,0.968324455253493,0.060043622071237444,0.0726961133424423,0.0037910666679803104,0.47472317015607685 | |
| 71 | +naive_rw,30,normal,906864,0.6656687221016603,0.8990796855978405,0.9724721678222975,0.05688950439004749,0.0849137490421284,0.0020290875420145966,0.44961903832248445 | |
| 72 | +naive_rw,60,stress,101561,0.655537066393596,0.8956981518496273,0.9700278650269296,0.05845703614387511,0.0787450920361703,0.00531766652583042,0.4689564351017848 | |
| 73 | +naive_rw,60,normal,906864,0.6773705869898904,0.9075969494874645,0.9762500220540236,0.05479207722625068,0.08984372661439977,0.0027903870891893374,0.43773643233271636 | |
| 74 | +tcn,5,stress,101561,0.5427083230767716,0.8315101269187976,0.9595021711089887,0.07582689031835055,0.02527718111781238,0.0015539103694634194,0.47777107596036833 | |
| 75 | +tcn,5,normal,906864,0.5554085287319819,0.8368873392261684,0.9594834506607386,0.07404892179705347,0.030879934868705328,0.0008389222727470308,0.45795940937825436 | |
| 76 | +tcn,15,stress,101561,0.5595651874243066,0.8419865893403964,0.9587735449631256,0.07323525254399178,0.03214569495086897,0.002694737410822984,0.472984153178846 | |
| 77 | +tcn,15,normal,906864,0.5780491892940948,0.8527331551368231,0.9633881155277969,0.07022646250623155,0.04027340022119885,0.0014113435949005225,0.44415893422545893 | |
| 78 | +tcn,30,stress,101561,0.5576451590669647,0.848189757879501,0.9621015941158516,0.07273237783288493,0.032298819081579666,0.0036660293538220996,0.4607161431819085 | |
| 79 | +tcn,30,normal,906864,0.5849179149243988,0.8577328022724466,0.9640739956597681,0.06906049152369831,0.043976439673897944,0.0019547335748586435,0.4353516529747356 | |
| 80 | +tcn,60,stress,101561,0.5665659062041531,0.8476679040182747,0.9576510668465257,0.07214389682628286,0.037977713435367155,0.0051714043825297745,0.45690376262243093 | |
| 81 | +tcn,60,normal,906864,0.5932003034633638,0.8623012932479401,0.9648888918294254,0.06777221333848181,0.047709856700694026,0.0026867268688218152,0.4237305851700938 | |
added
results/metrics/final/stress_calibration_final_heldout.csv
+73 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,H,days,n,cov_50,cov_80,cov_95,pit_var,pit_ks,crps,crps_scaled | |
| 2 | +garch_t,5,stress,25851,0.4772349232138022,0.782136087578817,0.949905226103439,0.08682724744911946,0.020244752079248696,0.0015632282873509712,0.480297213593009 | |
| 3 | +garch_t,5,normal,228483,0.5201699907651772,0.8220786666841734,0.9626799368005498,0.07887452907814949,0.016842128766438758,0.0007575282563379863,0.4663079226101217 | |
| 4 | +garch_t,15,stress,25851,0.48044563072995244,0.7916908436810955,0.9548566786584658,0.08566839158343205,0.010714283677112246,0.002696132072820151,0.4763807861161023 | |
| 5 | +garch_t,15,normal,228483,0.5369108423821466,0.8378435157101404,0.9683915214698686,0.07555546415191927,0.023156311564657472,0.0012749079851915059,0.45126214577642587 | |
| 6 | +garch_t,30,stress,25851,0.47812463734478355,0.7996595876368419,0.9578352868360992,0.0851523658018087,0.01385258762234054,0.0037022943156416153,0.4670897984250971 | |
| 7 | +garch_t,30,normal,228483,0.5489423720801986,0.8486276878367318,0.9711313314338484,0.07329689847257942,0.029760640538035177,0.0017685157565969075,0.4430583843950126 | |
| 8 | +garch_t,60,stress,25851,0.5048160612742254,0.8068159839077792,0.9568682062589455,0.08201760584442533,0.01015768048613902,0.0052752451267538405,0.4649906549312606 | |
| 9 | +garch_t,60,normal,228483,0.5722482635469597,0.8644231737153312,0.9743088107211477,0.06939714505749339,0.04124665434449393,0.0024360391981805376,0.4326818495764312 | |
| 10 | +har_rv,5,stress,25851,0.5646203241654094,0.8634482225058991,0.9760164016865885,0.07024022966412176,0.0411512449330689,0.001562484067158658,0.4808665562050426 | |
| 11 | +har_rv,5,normal,228483,0.5712372474100917,0.8644450571814971,0.9767772657046695,0.06936457137683882,0.040536830863858175,0.0007601288701445027,0.4674360734438529 | |
| 12 | +har_rv,15,stress,25851,0.4720126880971723,0.7840702487331245,0.9506015241189896,0.08744469992726381,0.016372153938367107,0.0027085997494769604,0.477417963516434 | |
| 13 | +har_rv,15,normal,228483,0.4996826897405934,0.8063225710446729,0.9602377419764271,0.08232055889345716,0.009065041039801047,0.0012666200856111941,0.4488600075953113 | |
| 14 | +har_rv,30,stress,25851,0.46218714943329076,0.7858883602181734,0.9539282813043983,0.08807994061907361,0.020978540676974244,0.003686195146492983,0.4658493147747987 | |
| 15 | +har_rv,30,normal,228483,0.5049784885527588,0.8117584240403006,0.9603690427734229,0.08133011578466708,0.013485383638777881,0.001753040721236128,0.4397948294737563 | |
| 16 | +har_rv,60,stress,25851,0.487408610885459,0.7939731538431782,0.9474681830490116,0.08528488469246033,0.012154171106557587,0.005207517183421352,0.46202028793941957 | |
| 17 | +har_rv,60,normal,228483,0.5234525106900733,0.8243764306316006,0.9616120236516502,0.07829395527766286,0.019300292885638726,0.002402172574527729,0.4272455394039472 | |
| 18 | +lightgbm,5,stress,25851,0.3721326060887393,0.6790452980542339,0.9092104754168118,0.10849520590919208,0.0819075911583712,0.0015808416657376847,0.48544699451098533 | |
| 19 | +lightgbm,5,normal,228483,0.37735411387280454,0.6761684676759321,0.9052314614216375,0.10820175315560333,0.07462588736772036,0.000763606548362309,0.47066957246850327 | |
| 20 | +lightgbm,15,stress,25851,0.4477969904452439,0.7559862287725814,0.9397702216548682,0.09284905330033508,0.03037527251531158,0.0027259022782971445,0.4787601834724964 | |
| 21 | +lightgbm,15,normal,228483,0.4660521789367261,0.7717817080483012,0.9448011449429498,0.08931514704612267,0.022551652180798354,0.0012678144331703162,0.4490757935492926 | |
| 22 | +lightgbm,30,stress,25851,0.44915090325325907,0.7701056051990252,0.9483192139569069,0.09105893633288273,0.027602415604745523,0.003722203487810802,0.4681607705224806 | |
| 23 | +lightgbm,30,normal,228483,0.4812699413085437,0.7878923158396904,0.9509416455491219,0.08615333864528435,0.01420091225635045,0.0017540225521349235,0.43990705867692476 | |
| 24 | +lightgbm,60,stress,25851,0.4766933580905961,0.7872809562492747,0.9432130285095354,0.08711646288374121,0.016185940928387432,0.005260122304772219,0.46400721936667927 | |
| 25 | +lightgbm,60,normal,228483,0.5038930686309266,0.8059024084942862,0.9538171330033307,0.08221165196608608,0.012555113205026058,0.002403010626774358,0.4274275687130835 | |
| 26 | +mlp,5,stress,25851,0.5252408030637112,0.8244168504119763,0.956481374028084,0.07825097593801517,0.02208892357059694,0.00154530160003844,0.4765353483701206 | |
| 27 | +mlp,5,normal,228483,0.5374447989565964,0.8250810782421449,0.9556947344003711,0.07705958983796736,0.024450190663216687,0.0007529537638227022,0.4638389133354763 | |
| 28 | +mlp,15,stress,25851,0.5423001044447023,0.8319987621368612,0.9533480329581061,0.0761461674875071,0.023782437659230937,0.00269863228469348,0.47665470225748 | |
| 29 | +mlp,15,normal,228483,0.5608951213000529,0.8412004394200007,0.9597300455613765,0.07318797065842536,0.03414452994568687,0.0012679334040569463,0.4496103298937396 | |
| 30 | +mlp,30,stress,25851,0.5381996827975707,0.8377238791536111,0.9586476345209083,0.07597951125044687,0.02396259647435256,0.0036741711764096473,0.4652870855935168 | |
| 31 | +mlp,30,normal,228483,0.5667817736986996,0.8469908045675171,0.9600145306215342,0.07200485189959384,0.03822423719262216,0.0017558401776101467,0.44084851331858393 | |
| 32 | +mlp,60,stress,25851,0.5520869598854976,0.837182314030405,0.9520328033731771,0.07464808371572206,0.031880796255461114,0.005206558851551044,0.46235962577494616 | |
| 33 | +mlp,60,normal,228483,0.5742265288883637,0.8523084868458485,0.9606010075147823,0.07075675273249195,0.04291739813993822,0.002409042500438326,0.42867570962994966 | |
| 34 | +mrpt_base,5,stress,25851,0.533828478588836,0.827975706935902,0.9567908398127732,0.0771114360421117,0.02497047337711597,0.0015406481146361382,0.4757756617801307 | |
| 35 | +mrpt_base,5,normal,228483,0.5391517093175422,0.8257813491594561,0.9554583929657786,0.07690413472422221,0.024895363359487194,0.0007519805754081924,0.4633245005921646 | |
| 36 | +mrpt_base,15,stress,25851,0.5460910603071448,0.8355189354377006,0.954895361881552,0.0756981878347348,0.02447228649014002,0.0026995917183840435,0.4767518077736997 | |
| 37 | +mrpt_base,15,normal,228483,0.558693644603756,0.8397692607327459,0.958504571456082,0.07354175142474732,0.03261242841219844,0.001266154423941293,0.44914330372602346 | |
| 38 | +mrpt_base,30,stress,25851,0.5405980426289119,0.839812773200263,0.957796603613013,0.07563274641309074,0.024337444252694906,0.003672923555131541,0.4651570515774819 | |
| 39 | +mrpt_base,30,normal,228483,0.5633985898294402,0.845121956556943,0.9591917122936936,0.07260198425395356,0.035043281431472534,0.0017531873236446382,0.4403531995201261 | |
| 40 | +mrpt_base,60,stress,25851,0.5531314069088237,0.8372983636996635,0.9524583188271247,0.07443342797094618,0.0306789394689915,0.005202120085579856,0.46205690496964413 | |
| 41 | +mrpt_base,60,normal,228483,0.5713379113544552,0.8499100589540578,0.959966386995969,0.07138011971529132,0.03865727599074159,0.0024051900028048616,0.4282677152301339 | |
| 42 | +mrpt_small,5,stress,25851,0.5311593361958918,0.8280917566051603,0.9572163552667208,0.07755454853909483,0.024278652699139147,0.0015402189429028488,0.475628164083091 | |
| 43 | +mrpt_small,5,normal,228483,0.5396287688799605,0.8276195603173978,0.9561280270304574,0.0766360358592244,0.024166178480893363,0.0007517169703427281,0.4630830394006454 | |
| 44 | +mrpt_small,15,stress,25851,0.5415651232060655,0.834281072298944,0.9540830141967429,0.07597562443256783,0.024007290851249863,0.002696797621896567,0.47617920817898873 | |
| 45 | +mrpt_small,15,normal,228483,0.5596608938082921,0.8412223228861666,0.9593405198636222,0.07329128607101824,0.031941475830090466,0.0012658753205707014,0.4490270357279928 | |
| 46 | +mrpt_small,30,stress,25851,0.5380836331283122,0.8375304630381804,0.9584929016285637,0.07602584924844766,0.022239211775821888,0.003675391951574958,0.46492268435863493 | |
| 47 | +mrpt_small,30,normal,228483,0.5640726005873522,0.8457171868366574,0.9595768612982147,0.07245718903858205,0.03474578413397364,0.0017528739182085444,0.44027357248320736 | |
| 48 | +mrpt_small,60,stress,25851,0.5494178174925535,0.8351321032068392,0.952264902711694,0.07505183050345035,0.0294126658331009,0.0052058837076949995,0.46196245824651605 | |
| 49 | +mrpt_small,60,normal,228483,0.570208724500291,0.8496343272803666,0.9597475523343093,0.07151136325015121,0.03817567348791412,0.0024047030409666123,0.428175922908658 | |
| 50 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,5,stress,25851,0.5254729024022281,0.8224440060345828,0.9559011256817918,0.07830053500982184,0.02230968473467429,0.0015396988445911994,0.4752333832087115 | |
| 51 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,5,normal,228483,0.5377467907896868,0.8250679481624453,0.9551651545191546,0.07708358041551548,0.02355876834757281,0.0007518798464015363,0.4632192180332559 | |
| 52 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,15,stress,25851,0.5380836331283122,0.8277822908204712,0.9529225175041585,0.0769565000899496,0.021736377112031857,0.002694410771066311,0.47575759021865216 | |
| 53 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,15,normal,228483,0.5580240105390774,0.8387188543567793,0.9581106690650946,0.07378155908320937,0.03192789796603718,0.00126610802087668,0.44909624704674134 | |
| 54 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,30,stress,25851,0.5322037832192178,0.8328111098216704,0.957796603613013,0.07690425543520271,0.021405913983391547,0.003670432268636968,0.46457288453611023 | |
| 55 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,30,normal,228483,0.5626983189121292,0.8435157101403605,0.958233216475624,0.07290457038685332,0.034587297941404305,0.0017531580222988625,0.4403661532409394 | |
| 56 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,60,stress,25851,0.5464392093149201,0.831689296352172,0.951762020811574,0.0757916643599563,0.029724005915426788,0.005202717501967238,0.46166744478392946 | |
| 57 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,60,normal,228483,0.5694690633438811,0.8480412109434837,0.9585833519342796,0.0718291473446397,0.037861529832098756,0.0024049844740969585,0.42831972868389734 | |
| 58 | +naive_rw,5,stress,25851,0.6296468221732234,0.8796178097559089,0.9610073111291633,0.06284431179303474,0.07012065821899444,0.0016061422949013508,0.49321905223736967 | |
| 59 | +naive_rw,5,normal,228483,0.6357321988944473,0.8785949064044152,0.9638528905870458,0.06205998613595302,0.07178938979593583,0.0007823034251291538,0.47995315793945414 | |
| 60 | +naive_rw,15,stress,25851,0.6337859270434413,0.8824030018181115,0.964334068314572,0.06194741094241322,0.06954530310335758,0.0027964318833241125,0.4921512671929208 | |
| 61 | +naive_rw,15,normal,228483,0.6507355032978384,0.8887006910798615,0.9683477545375367,0.059654246668323266,0.07818830035204782,0.0013179856585134719,0.46550015145945806 | |
| 62 | +naive_rw,30,stress,25851,0.6332830451433213,0.8914935592433562,0.9685892228540482,0.061239213846091184,0.07063368195644507,0.003800637658761713,0.47968513446069694 | |
| 63 | +naive_rw,30,normal,228483,0.6557118035039806,0.8950381428815273,0.9710700577285838,0.05830503553406122,0.08117302525920461,0.0018246994582035297,0.4561722969022988 | |
| 64 | +naive_rw,60,stress,25851,0.6503423465243124,0.8897914974275657,0.967776875169239,0.05951506093873946,0.07895854267429667,0.005362560038589111,0.4755269451692588 | |
| 65 | +naive_rw,60,normal,228483,0.6674938616877405,0.9041154046471729,0.9749784447858265,0.05616572844289061,0.08614138436270008,0.0025055255092216212,0.4439041689625638 | |
| 66 | +tcn,5,stress,25851,0.5376194344512785,0.8344358051912886,0.9608138950137326,0.07614915234708511,0.02656665301843747,0.0015419145464823448,0.476047582736557 | |
| 67 | +tcn,5,normal,228483,0.5445613021537707,0.8330247764603931,0.9591391919748953,0.07546920675133495,0.027164225206878168,0.0007523813693749147,0.4636990006645979 | |
| 68 | +tcn,15,stress,25851,0.5517388108777224,0.8402382886542107,0.9575645042744961,0.07432670769566603,0.02889236718154417,0.002696134772962453,0.4765444295005149 | |
| 69 | +tcn,15,normal,228483,0.5677490229032357,0.84784425974799,0.9622510208636966,0.07179162129173568,0.03685882163967155,0.001267816575279444,0.4498371970587447 | |
| 70 | +tcn,30,stress,25851,0.545123979729991,0.8454992069939268,0.9609686279060772,0.07437623779507806,0.02792859329852901,0.003674507812903364,0.4652839825724421 | |
| 71 | +tcn,30,normal,228483,0.573469360959021,0.8528205599541323,0.9622904111027953,0.07082940752367119,0.03948975740014968,0.0017565621905854456,0.4411902061396831 | |
| 72 | +tcn,60,stress,25851,0.5568449963250938,0.8417469343545704,0.9550114115508104,0.0735871325875709,0.034354656404804174,0.00521263944686724,0.4626640503874028 | |
| 73 | +tcn,60,normal,228483,0.5806558912479265,0.8572497735061252,0.962439218672724,0.06965212185254094,0.04362046497022923,0.002411328842492468,0.4292074209863379 | |
added
results/metrics/final/subgroups_mrpt_small_vs_har_rv_final.csv
+125 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,125 @@ | ||
| 1 | +col,group,H,n,rel,lo,hi,crps_model,crps_ref | |
| 2 | +asset_class,etf,5,247000,-0.0125847446284712,-0.014458508018106516,-0.011096373881685676,0.0005249075543184165,0.0005315975740327332 | |
| 3 | +asset_class,etf,15,247000,-0.0026286303519734463,-0.005127216487541558,-0.00037744540092063465,0.0009047119685719179,0.0009070963896739805 | |
| 4 | +asset_class,etf,30,247000,-0.0031135668958614314,-0.006068345702749245,-0.0004105621902443155,0.0012530449350849316,0.0012569585596457142 | |
| 5 | +asset_class,etf,60,247000,0.0005425402695711803,-0.0022523553763666286,0.003082234108118984,0.001740817881423437,0.001739873929752569 | |
| 6 | +asset_class,stock,5,761425,-0.018823797660354222,-0.019967290604737988,-0.017815915056623173,0.0010352719382103978,0.0010551335588263953 | |
| 7 | +asset_class,stock,15,761425,0.002516426609840983,0.0015489563856410195,0.003471789228016068,0.0017436945883034583,0.0017393177229025783 | |
| 8 | +asset_class,stock,30,761425,0.0036194904947390925,0.0022261521144697413,0.004958571006911491,0.0024032251313458822,0.0023945580512403173 | |
| 9 | +asset_class,stock,60,761425,0.005541335503608502,0.00397363456916079,0.0069979913213085495,0.0033102353644046873,0.00329199332491569 | |
| 10 | +adv_tercile,high,5,363238,-0.015200917326161632,-0.0163344000032872,-0.014235651360140444,0.0008345581530408908,0.0008474400187040925 | |
| 11 | +adv_tercile,high,15,363238,-0.0011789881471390756,-0.0025710789795894886,0.00011665124445007507,0.001412537856993925,0.0014142051881483745 | |
| 12 | +adv_tercile,high,30,363238,-0.0012629581014334701,-0.0032041214770750772,0.0002600166391575917,0.0019440134507394996,0.0019464717630218195 | |
| 13 | +adv_tercile,high,60,363238,0.0005437771184515381,-0.0014167822727861878,0.0021431521715258514,0.0026808975112723532,0.0026794404928420926 | |
| 14 | +adv_tercile,low,5,315738,-0.019900025439273578,-0.02118870033465391,-0.018661306115337166,0.0010423108898536728,0.0010634740505128866 | |
| 15 | +adv_tercile,low,15,315738,0.005513235011338042,0.004305773362238247,0.006710669675766178,0.0017564843387678827,0.001746853524755521 | |
| 16 | +adv_tercile,low,30,315738,0.007786201441823105,0.006203811818981419,0.009360662518783317,0.0024185744148364557,0.0023998884003137186 | |
| 17 | +adv_tercile,low,60,315738,0.010217127068744123,0.008531256903319701,0.011991663733860574,0.003334660176863475,0.0033009341135794815 | |
| 18 | +adv_tercile,mid,5,329449,-0.01859918192971836,-0.019958211494468005,-0.017350051763937214,0.0008671864577935127,0.0008836210871503576 | |
| 19 | +adv_tercile,mid,15,329449,0.000638544854623643,-0.00042501200803622696,0.0018361850802104146,0.0014675419560647364,0.0014666054626927714 | |
| 20 | +adv_tercile,mid,30,329449,0.0009353596753688316,-0.0005170855616634767,0.002360613324907853,0.0020324917914143594,0.002030592457112868 | |
| 21 | +adv_tercile,mid,60,329449,0.0031984111981370545,0.0015549510960035802,0.004773028316598141,0.002804061308218758,0.002795121360758356 | |
| 22 | +vol_tercile,high,5,346426,-0.01743618549201159,-0.018435141221073082,-0.016366627868013676,0.0012533514897704876,0.0012755929653262207 | |
| 23 | +vol_tercile,high,15,346426,0.0009392134577416895,-0.0001531266472593786,0.0021174974685325525,0.002125467642676619,0.0021234732480249195 | |
| 24 | +vol_tercile,high,30,346426,0.0013132953956889355,-0.0003338005665894795,0.0029165442614807195,0.0029364875237885063,0.0029326361062928805 | |
| 25 | +vol_tercile,high,60,346426,0.003418006173920144,0.0018261237504131015,0.0050855784545034205,0.0040531467015837265,0.004039340211801226 | |
| 26 | +vol_tercile,low,5,334105,-0.018646081006773684,-0.02000323845576681,-0.017503248350095243,0.0006093264728469439,0.000620903897211776 | |
| 27 | +vol_tercile,low,15,334105,0.0026246926207346955,0.0013356480535151145,0.0038027256473704774,0.0010258750656750542,0.0010231895077245164 | |
| 28 | +vol_tercile,low,30,334105,0.0038644594484231526,0.002201184582859167,0.005319329240295472,0.0014120460455526252,0.0014066102572537322 | |
| 29 | +vol_tercile,low,60,334105,0.006083073227152677,0.0042530032554686055,0.007537702666238093,0.0019461785296783043,0.0019344113637014717 | |
| 30 | +vol_tercile,mid,5,327894,-0.018230990825832658,-0.019500588311693726,-0.016949687626707295,0.0008544271534786906,0.0008702934656670487 | |
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results/metrics/final/summary_elastic_net_final.json
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| 186 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_elastic_net_final_heldout.json
+186 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ | ||
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| 185 | + } | |
| 186 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_ewma_final.json
+186 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ | ||
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| 185 | + } | |
| 186 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_ewma_final_heldout.json
+186 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
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| 185 | + } | |
| 186 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_garch_t_final.json
+186 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ | ||
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| 186 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_garch_t_final_heldout.json
+186 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ | ||
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| 172 | + "logscore_lo": -4.15191674746773, | |
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| 183 | + "pit_chi2_p": 0.0, | |
| 184 | + "pit_var": 0.07067991845177476 | |
| 185 | + } | |
| 186 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_har_rv_final.json
+186 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
| 2 | + "5": { | |
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| 171 | + "logscore": -4.098625940411497, | |
| 172 | + "logscore_lo": -4.140052479999418, | |
| 173 | + "logscore_hi": -4.058739074149789, | |
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| 175 | + "crps_closed_lo": 0.002754929245424926, | |
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| 179 | + "cov_50": 0.4913116989364603, | |
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| 181 | + "cov_95": 0.9608458735156308, | |
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| 183 | + "pit_chi2_p": 0.0, | |
| 184 | + "pit_var": 0.08350112512093838 | |
| 185 | + } | |
| 186 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_har_rv_final_heldout.json
+186 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
| 2 | + "5": { | |
| 3 | + "H": 5, | |
| 4 | + "n": 254334, | |
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| 184 | + "pit_var": 0.07900459219636415 | |
| 185 | + } | |
| 186 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_lightgbm_final.json
+186 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
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| 185 | + } | |
| 186 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_lightgbm_final_heldout.json
+186 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
| 2 | + "5": { | |
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| 186 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_mlp_final.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_mlp_final_heldout.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
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| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_mrpt_base_final.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_mrpt_base_final_heldout.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_mrpt_small_1m_only_final.json
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_mrpt_small_1m_only_final_heldout.json
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@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_mrpt_small_final.json
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@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_mrpt_small_final_heldout.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_naive_rw_final.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_naive_rw_final_heldout.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_ridge_final.json
+186 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
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| 185 | + } | |
| 186 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_ridge_final_heldout.json
+186 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
| 2 | + "5": { | |
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| 185 | + } | |
| 186 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_seasonal_vol_final.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
| 2 | + "5": { | |
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| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_seasonal_vol_final_heldout.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_tcn_final.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/metrics/final/summary_tcn_final_heldout.json
+162 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@ | ||
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| 161 | + } | |
| 162 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
results/metrics/main/baselines_meta.json
+3 −3
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | { |
| 2 | − "wall_s": 70.19660592079163, | |
| 3 | − "n_train": 586202, | |
| 4 | − "n_eval": 986468, | |
| 2 | + "wall_s": 27.302852153778076, | |
| 3 | + "n_train": 146119, | |
| 4 | + "n_eval": 250322, | |
| 5 | 5 | "baselines": [ |
| 6 | 6 | "naive_rw", |
| 7 | 7 | "seasonal_vol", |
added
results/metrics/main/compare_crps_vs_naive_rw_test_heldout.csv
+49 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,reference,metric,H,diff,lo,hi,dm_t,dm_p,lag,n,rel_diff | |
| 2 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.474985940567595e-05,-2.7166785505012245e-05,-2.2393099856572545e-05,-32.00747076227243,0.0,60,250322,-0.03262253091705824 | |
| 3 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,crps,15,-4.9645779447589097e-05,-5.36946500192206e-05,-4.623626760707497e-05,-42.170561339975116,0.0,60,250322,-0.038539916400825325 | |
| 4 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.240377116538996e-05,-7.85586819739758e-05,-6.707576117661633e-05,-35.52313340432819,0.0,120,250322,-0.04077728829283664 | |
| 5 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010818944453163507,-0.00011810749906033478,-9.852426283103698e-05,-29.460471682316342,0.0,240,250322,-0.044431396783839165 | |
| 6 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.6890557954856737e-05,-2.8853047933969212e-05,-2.5032977279466025e-05,-43.02955462629387,0.0,60,250322,-0.03544416329322989 | |
| 7 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,15,-4.449761059623255e-05,-4.7796558327602346e-05,-4.144471526900301e-05,-40.713675231117925,0.0,60,250322,-0.034543403517830404 | |
| 8 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,30,-5.9127987806174183e-05,-6.426414006687385e-05,-5.466824371854957e-05,-29.429364230560846,0.0,120,250322,-0.03330046164916096 | |
| 9 | +ewma,naive_rw,crps,60,-7.863810627419866e-05,-8.720735500419362e-05,-7.027222884116456e-05,-20.524122296533854,0.0,240,250322,-0.03229521065871608 | |
| 10 | +garch_t,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.490503344713033e-05,-2.6919783546914096e-05,-2.3019502804706214e-05,-40.126803853869944,0.0,60,250322,-0.03282706419871839 | |
| 11 | +garch_t,naive_rw,crps,15,-4.128172876369546e-05,-4.466021353928529e-05,-3.823955188852748e-05,-38.603190813432626,0.0,60,250322,-0.03204692107037976 | |
| 12 | +garch_t,naive_rw,crps,30,-5.432276421514599e-05,-5.945783875247496e-05,-4.994888591565273e-05,-28.138101491454627,0.0,120,250322,-0.030594193943362775 | |
| 13 | +garch_t,naive_rw,crps,60,-6.89468058230205e-05,-7.766117190064683e-05,-6.0963938822805296e-05,-19.511566708034916,0.0,240,250322,-0.02831517344194501 | |
| 14 | +har_rv,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.2719669366324176e-05,-2.45603631109529e-05,-2.093410227943293e-05,-39.718906625775865,0.0,60,250322,-0.029946558652299907 | |
| 15 | +har_rv,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.068680717416913e-05,-5.4442637872010804e-05,-4.7480389014614846e-05,-48.368879079111686,0.0,60,250322,-0.03934806408225495 | |
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| 17 | +har_rv,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010462900173614351,-0.00011358137505430067,-9.590904777687276e-05,-30.53562226735902,0.0,240,250322,-0.042969189012485004 | |
| 18 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,crps,5,-1.8996041803539613e-05,-2.1431118458172262e-05,-1.664013977918218e-05,-22.64679380504674,0.0,60,250322,-0.02503848409318982 | |
| 19 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,crps,15,-4.822348263060135e-05,-5.202042267564779e-05,-4.48659988635835e-05,-40.078255636283366,0.0,60,250322,-0.037435790309266304 | |
| 20 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,crps,30,-6.96923589444813e-05,-7.567105459378534e-05,-6.432559217447344e-05,-33.43190240321495,0.0,120,250322,-0.03925024023949485 | |
| 21 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010476335802739962,-0.00011458173683021222,-9.561796432856e-05,-27.88725898772668,0.0,240,250322,-0.04302436664754033 | |
| 22 | +mlp,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.974193300144524e-05,-3.173412468368628e-05,-2.7858970953901634e-05,-49.83467092216699,0.0,60,250322,-0.03920253093034583 | |
| 23 | +mlp,naive_rw,crps,15,-4.958644865697446e-05,-5.2909285209569196e-05,-4.637847323551523e-05,-48.27403927907222,0.0,60,250322,-0.03849385803018987 | |
| 24 | +mlp,naive_rw,crps,30,-6.77414104503739e-05,-7.275554371246423e-05,-6.297291492407368e-05,-37.51107646658007,0.0,120,250322,-0.03815147994140252 | |
| 25 | +mlp,naive_rw,crps,60,-9.694346849479914e-05,-0.00010526007019969815,-8.950671120415585e-05,-29.009552236916754,0.0,240,250322,-0.03981288316009931 | |
| 26 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.1136083606661126e-05,-3.31349960961176e-05,-2.9297025764197024e-05,-52.00378733872754,0.0,60,250322,-0.04104014626691055 | |
| 27 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.207494782598665e-05,-5.5490971232789586e-05,-4.8950958322626404e-05,-51.39041211903565,0.0,60,250322,-0.04042567481309488 | |
| 28 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.19353561845756e-05,-7.731704871729987e-05,-6.709480257447214e-05,-40.82513565088714,0.0,120,250322,-0.04051348031148551 | |
| 29 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010456228430887965,-0.00011317006591316924,-9.642271532195338e-05,-32.2682117420333,0.0,240,250322,-0.0429417894034382 | |
| 30 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.094097232543379e-05,-3.287560753190332e-05,-2.9128313346726976e-05,-51.34606666971608,0.0,60,250322,-0.04078297212705883 | |
| 31 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.174388859635509e-05,-5.512239359208682e-05,-4.876360297034999e-05,-50.64497075651044,0.0,60,250322,-0.040168674214540644 | |
| 32 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.136049831452463e-05,-7.675932690326165e-05,-6.650666443807145e-05,-40.07170747228537,0.0,120,250322,-0.04018972445295532 | |
| 33 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.00010340840319734244,-0.00011205311889515145,-9.5361730070379e-05,-31.909531757591886,0.0,240,250322,-0.042467911847914784 | |
| 34 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.1273771632129114e-05,-3.3280110255892096e-05,-2.9407432286173107e-05,-51.667269926921904,0.0,60,250322,-0.04122163141371942 | |
| 35 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.237540427318463e-05,-5.577707495547787e-05,-4.9245181313395206e-05,-51.525937156494145,0.0,60,250322,-0.040658918534634665 | |
| 36 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.239654095049191e-05,-7.778487261187859e-05,-6.765829095169412e-05,-40.73695244041347,0.0,120,250322,-0.04077321628729644 | |
| 37 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.0001057683530169846,-0.0001148352271216318,-9.762011538297195e-05,-32.24607227831316,0.0,240,250322,-0.04343709943622716 | |
| 38 | +ridge,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.47604118034428e-05,-2.7166784039710526e-05,-2.234208559781876e-05,-31.976918114320778,0.0,60,250322,-0.03263643992222694 | |
| 39 | +ridge,naive_rw,crps,15,-4.97517672050843e-05,-5.377902379537476e-05,-4.621820694376779e-05,-42.27335336434882,0.0,60,250322,-0.038622194478817595 | |
| 40 | +ridge,naive_rw,crps,30,-7.247446069149581e-05,-7.854293572686143e-05,-6.715955310753719e-05,-35.56963410666019,0.0,120,250322,-0.040817100130520034 | |
| 41 | +ridge,naive_rw,crps,60,-0.0001079112164560302,-0.00011787623019570714,-9.8373680021577e-05,-29.442400850806287,0.0,240,250322,-0.044317133677330756 | |
| 42 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,5,-2.2562229664442688e-05,-2.4702764538740844e-05,-2.0601140861532784e-05,-36.74269818988083,0.0,60,250322,-0.029739039027318788 | |
| 43 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,15,-3.9041812269157535e-05,-4.2439229591833465e-05,-3.602586023666645e-05,-37.734481951645186,0.0,60,250322,-0.03030807850601926 | |
| 44 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,30,-5.582704919608489e-05,-6.129434461590488e-05,-5.11493401061167e-05,-31.004808212900034,0.0,120,250322,-0.03144139653177783 | |
| 45 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,crps,60,-8.236295320216699e-05,-9.137171418089573e-05,-7.388667305995914e-05,-24.66718702843139,0.0,240,250322,-0.033824936155802184 | |
| 46 | +tcn,naive_rw,crps,5,-3.0463032105428524e-05,-3.2364035678327396e-05,-2.8688793731356066e-05,-52.11186894675992,0.0,60,250322,-0.04015300412004657 | |
| 47 | +tcn,naive_rw,crps,15,-5.022828581299356e-05,-5.34421433951177e-05,-4.718780143378277e-05,-51.228457095936804,0.0,60,250322,-0.03899211489333437 | |
| 48 | +tcn,naive_rw,crps,30,-6.837890783401727e-05,-7.344116127090804e-05,-6.365574208849637e-05,-40.04629591028134,0.0,120,250322,-0.03851051392789715 | |
| 49 | +tcn,naive_rw,crps,60,-9.679826061576469e-05,-0.00010502969043901125,-8.920720480543242e-05,-31.150489523699548,0.0,240,250322,-0.03975324897935783 | |
added
results/metrics/main/compare_qlike_vs_naive_rw_test_heldout.csv
+49 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,reference,metric,H,diff,lo,hi,dm_t,dm_p,lag,n,rel_diff | |
| 2 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,qlike,5,0.0037409553445865674,-0.01610520153568335,0.02600908996600419,0.49599032293878104,0.6199012384640126,60,250322,3740955344.5865674 | |
| 3 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.14152759381067279,-0.15775797483962534,-0.12439071622825898,-23.223164780107922,0.0,60,250322,-141527593810.6728 | |
| 4 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.13988559408128506,-0.15690773075771292,-0.12111410859522748,-19.940721939852722,0.0,120,250322,-139885594081.28506 | |
| 5 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.13300257261994192,-0.15228742054078204,-0.11203753508727964,-15.76759869711863,0.0,240,250322,-133002572619.94193 | |
| 6 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.13985074515913912,-0.14948649472953623,-0.12996311453690435,-36.988165506790104,0.0,60,250322,-139850745159.13913 | |
| 7 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.12209923172830346,-0.13229724570128967,-0.11246311712210327,-26.96706876537214,0.0,60,250322,-122099231728.30347 | |
| 8 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.098974030400264,-0.11061764827623605,-0.08685872014066551,-16.83611473634173,0.0,120,250322,-98974030400.26399 | |
| 9 | +ewma,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.06799201127724355,-0.08177455700828322,-0.05214964292420881,-8.863145003528434,0.0,240,250322,-67992011277.24355 | |
| 10 | +garch_t,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.07388166947421551,-0.08497200558928622,-0.0630533127800376,-16.459795688335635,0.0,60,250322,-73881669474.21552 | |
| 11 | +garch_t,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.0669671375874178,-0.07864898609109482,-0.05580476413909835,-15.986734314480712,0.0,60,250322,-66967137587.41781 | |
| 12 | +garch_t,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.046904225153226634,-0.05794187992162843,-0.03646427267008425,-10.375914566446388,0.0,120,250322,-46904225153.22663 | |
| 13 | +garch_t,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.008652685177340986,-0.02154811641228154,0.0038959649298185746,-1.4525210267147186,0.1463567869661675,240,250322,-8652685177.340986 | |
| 14 | +har_rv,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.11561898079453183,-0.12403549918759475,-0.10679927143453866,-33.57281469372178,0.0,60,250322,-115618980794.53183 | |
| 15 | +har_rv,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.15457887605396148,-0.16543124666617204,-0.1437213792663667,-37.348701639303336,0.0,60,250322,-154578876053.9615 | |
| 16 | +har_rv,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.1427236097423015,-0.1557727411278967,-0.12941172300195675,-26.094268924883977,0.0,120,250322,-142723609742.3015 | |
| 17 | +har_rv,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.13273707831644938,-0.14826066644265193,-0.11719123670401466,-19.38667242743596,0.0,240,250322,-132737078316.44937 | |
| 18 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,qlike,5,12.970508356571097,4.951699030095499,23.00695532561685,2.6776784192393395,0.0074134357004322915,60,250322,12970508356571.098 | |
| 19 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.13398286632246187,-0.15277675146794997,-0.11243308260153101,-13.608917165592393,0.0,60,250322,-133982866322.46187 | |
| 20 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.1499576368612192,-0.16321327777707254,-0.13750443392951311,-27.919596705730996,0.0,120,250322,-149957636861.2192 | |
| 21 | +lightgbm,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.14475278961493165,-0.15879730687532367,-0.13071542106255005,-23.845163171618992,0.0,240,250322,-144752789614.93167 | |
| 22 | +mlp,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.17034644963943957,-0.18467368265716536,-0.14850657531487665,-19.187832324084813,0.0,60,250322,-170346449639.43958 | |
| 23 | +mlp,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.15946370199621973,-0.1728894595471094,-0.1400226750659584,-19.500206544062262,0.0,60,250322,-159463701996.21973 | |
| 24 | +mlp,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14535364269361722,-0.16278401440286466,-0.11830583396545472,-13.69061467898894,0.0,120,250322,-145353642693.61722 | |
| 25 | +mlp,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.13005658787725624,-0.1537353109938396,-0.0934629036484603,-8.51486412767621,0.0,240,250322,-130056587877.25624 | |
| 26 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.18760431723724957,-0.19724264852014886,-0.17733640942684267,-54.7660414972972,0.0,60,250322,-187604317237.24957 | |
| 27 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.17487271173252594,-0.18525165433719123,-0.16534582516217886,-44.04981475697291,0.0,60,250322,-174872711732.52594 | |
| 28 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.16348978484358312,-0.17459818504291885,-0.1524773667485892,-35.0489314022994,0.0,120,250322,-163489784843.58313 | |
| 29 | +mrpt_base,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.15378874335569795,-0.16686686387770375,-0.14130356543689324,-27.59229294675703,0.0,240,250322,-153788743355.69794 | |
| 30 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.1876412493875246,-0.19768168015554963,-0.17727646061270955,-51.8706657460002,0.0,60,250322,-187641249387.5246 | |
| 31 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.17287778159720962,-0.1840059199670437,-0.1621545719250118,-38.35877707575992,0.0,60,250322,-172877781597.20963 | |
| 32 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.16054207150684288,-0.17231885409166,-0.14893556690498164,-31.25398449019227,0.0,120,250322,-160542071506.8429 | |
| 33 | +mrpt_small_1m_only,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.1495405204859654,-0.16284991967954762,-0.13663199036260154,-25.12721582772392,0.0,240,250322,-149540520485.9654 | |
| 34 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.19163873503843146,-0.20158330453154252,-0.18091393858373866,-52.79018448112523,0.0,60,250322,-191638735038.43146 | |
| 35 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.17894759635105875,-0.18862326268317273,-0.17025782513224139,-52.30166123039069,0.0,60,250322,-178947596351.05875 | |
| 36 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.1682005906802927,-0.1779196520077655,-0.15908859186451785,-44.65292196812199,0.0,120,250322,-168200590680.2927 | |
| 37 | +mrpt_small,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.15964761744030212,-0.17026687177773928,-0.14946367002227368,-35.52136829487431,0.0,240,250322,-159647617440.30212 | |
| 38 | +ridge,naive_rw,qlike,5,0.0038647898592825193,-0.015941249302113884,0.02601777277532901,0.5119992864687284,0.6086515089444939,60,250322,3864789859.2825193 | |
| 39 | +ridge,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.1419065986991963,-0.1578614667313276,-0.12512440214220874,-23.652838494556814,0.0,60,250322,-141906598699.19632 | |
| 40 | +ridge,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.14022698526759012,-0.1571033309058571,-0.12184927465224694,-20.29621406285349,0.0,120,250322,-140226985267.59012 | |
| 41 | +ridge,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.13322533504300976,-0.15223781556371108,-0.11250704984936921,-15.98654177849322,0.0,240,250322,-133225335043.00977 | |
| 42 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.10197881952792284,-0.1141497301437585,-0.0897078247873234,-23.6316702431198,0.0,60,250322,-101978819527.92285 | |
| 43 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.09820053262498368,-0.11073952440845593,-0.08599579413274394,-22.651492596009675,0.0,60,250322,-98200532624.98369 | |
| 44 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.08492739370379948,-0.1022239838788038,-0.06770161341677897,-12.629021799466248,0.0,120,250322,-84927393703.79948 | |
| 45 | +seasonal_vol,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.06828601646415298,-0.09018758842594472,-0.043261963963200416,-6.542952150347725,6.03161964818355e-11,240,250322,-68286016464.152985 | |
| 46 | +tcn,naive_rw,qlike,5,-0.1863653718177608,-0.19540860776564878,-0.17617425345552346,-55.39079196764266,0.0,60,250322,-186365371817.7608 | |
| 47 | +tcn,naive_rw,qlike,15,-0.16971749949659032,-0.17978773140566978,-0.159877706652941,-41.755562326280334,0.0,60,250322,-169717499496.59033 | |
| 48 | +tcn,naive_rw,qlike,30,-0.15714216179967483,-0.16778505357529694,-0.1465132621411257,-33.80592546986721,0.0,120,250322,-157142161799.67484 | |
| 49 | +tcn,naive_rw,qlike,60,-0.14554204854126637,-0.1574550532780773,-0.1334754271221295,-26.722237826766165,0.0,240,250322,-145542048541.2664 | |
added
results/metrics/main/compare_wis_vs_naive_rw_test_heldout.csv
+49 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,reference,metric,H,diff,lo,hi,dm_t,dm_p,lag,n,rel_diff | |
| 2 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,wis,5,-2.2724547024079342e-05,-2.5066651260663887e-05,-2.0396670564914244e-05,-29.46736971777534,0.0,60,250322,-0.033193520836185625 | |
| 3 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,wis,15,-4.670758872338789e-05,-5.058196606311893e-05,-4.340936476622277e-05,-40.98783150676241,0.0,60,250322,-0.04019668493093364 | |
| 4 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,wis,30,-6.786776399395013e-05,-7.374594524165736e-05,-6.265419661075554e-05,-34.54154706464541,0.0,120,250322,-0.04237688266650363 | |
| 5 | +elastic_net,naive_rw,wis,60,-0.00010124153374507453,-0.0001106045203380605,-9.210219105327873e-05,-28.65280406914856,0.0,240,250322,-0.04608464582722971 | |
| 6 | +ewma,naive_rw,wis,5,-2.5205660474291764e-05,-2.713503654247195e-05,-2.3302608738050864e-05,-40.41455633404898,0.0,60,250322,-0.036817658686735505 | |
| 7 | +ewma,naive_rw,wis,15,-4.101683396452412e-05,-4.408388910920878e-05,-3.811583031146155e-05,-38.089930287830626,0.0,60,250322,-0.03529920504996697 | |
| 8 | +ewma,naive_rw,wis,30,-5.3732112152583004e-05,-5.864775289274189e-05,-4.951187027898397e-05,-27.29194748359163,0.0,120,250322,-0.03355052941358728 | |
| 9 | +ewma,naive_rw,wis,60,-7.001787831362495e-05,-7.811145553086207e-05,-6.222724354764048e-05,-18.768032155090893,0.0,240,250322,-0.03187179218148162 | |
| 10 | +garch_t,naive_rw,wis,5,-2.30701148041159e-05,-2.4993816154594475e-05,-2.1206603388987097e-05,-37.52566399027531,0.0,60,250322,-0.03369828827092496 | |
| 11 | +garch_t,naive_rw,wis,15,-3.7710960417135255e-05,-4.09583493427374e-05,-3.4902992502450545e-05,-35.887154607562806,0.0,60,250322,-0.03245416078547128 | |
| 12 | +garch_t,naive_rw,wis,30,-4.890544868967802e-05,-5.3857896277736676e-05,-4.464527550173808e-05,-25.751732555378904,0.0,120,250322,-0.0305367429087533 | |
| 13 | +garch_t,naive_rw,wis,60,-6.048794053650298e-05,-6.850258628303753e-05,-5.298288131761809e-05,-17.48168339160825,0.0,240,250322,-0.027533811602087545 | |
| 14 | +har_rv,naive_rw,wis,5,-2.1255937954850706e-05,-2.30415393259324e-05,-1.948266922100172e-05,-36.80472645841713,0.0,60,250322,-0.031048338109859012 | |
| 15 | +har_rv,naive_rw,wis,15,-4.777065535733491e-05,-5.131295603312996e-05,-4.476137324491153e-05,-47.366933830250076,0.0,60,250322,-0.041111563127674285 | |
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modified
results/metrics/main/garch_params.json
+289 −1446
@@ -1,1682 +1,422 @@ | ||
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