1#!/usr/bin/env python32"""WP44 — generate LaTeX tables (booktabs) from result files into manuscript/tables/*.tex. Every table is regenerated from3CSV/JSON artefacts; the inventory manuscript/tables/TABLES.json records source files and captions for Appendix G."""4import json, os, sys, csv, glob5import pandas as pd6R = sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))7OUT = os.path.join(R, "manuscript/tables"); os.makedirs(OUT, exist_ok=True); INV = []8910def tex_escape(s):11 s = str(s).replace("&", "\\&").replace("%", "\\%").replace("_", "\\_").replace("#", "\\#")12 for a, b in (("↔", "$\\leftrightarrow$"), ("→", "$\\rightarrow$"), ("…", "\\ldots{}"), ("∨", "$\\vee$"), ("∧", "$\\wedge$"), ("≥", "$\\geq$"), ("≤", "$\\leq$"), ("–", "--"), ("—", "---"), ("×", "$\\times$")):13 s = s.replace(a, b)14 return s151617def write(name, df, caption, label, sources, fmt=None, col_names=None, longtable=False, note=None):18 df = df.copy()19 if col_names: df.columns = col_names20 for c in df.columns:21 if pd.api.types.is_float_dtype(df[c]):22 df[c] = df[c].map(lambda v: "" if pd.isna(v) else (fmt or {}).get(c, "{:,.3f}").format(v).replace(",", "{,}"))23 elif pd.api.types.is_integer_dtype(df[c]):24 df[c] = df[c].map(lambda v: f"{v:,}".replace(",", "{,}"))25 else:26 df[c] = df[c].map(lambda v: tex_escape("" if pd.isna(v) else v))27 cols = "l" + "r" * (len(df.columns) - 1)28 head = " & ".join(f"\\textbf{{{tex_escape(c)}}}" for c in df.columns) + " \\\\"29 body = "\n".join(" & ".join(map(str, r)) + " \\\\" for r in df.itertuples(index=False))30 env = "longtable" if longtable else "tabular"31 s = f"% generated by tables/make_tables.py from {', '.join(sources)}\n"32 if longtable:33 s += f"\\begin{{longtable}}{{{cols}}}\n\\caption{{{caption}}}\\label{{{label}}}\\\\\n\\toprule\n{head}\n\\midrule\n\\endfirsthead\n\\toprule\n{head}\n\\midrule\n\\endhead\n{body}\n\\bottomrule\n"34 if note: s += f"\\multicolumn{{{len(df.columns)}}}{{p{{0.95\\linewidth}}}}{{\\footnotesize {note}}}\\\\\n"35 s += "\\end{longtable}\n"36 else:37 s += f"\\begin{{table}}[htbp]\\centering\\caption{{{caption}}}\\label{{{label}}}\n\\begin{{threeparttable}}\\small\n\\begin{{tabular}}{{{cols}}}\n\\toprule\n{head}\n\\midrule\n{body}\n\\bottomrule\n\\end{{tabular}}\n"38 if note: s += f"\\begin{{tablenotes}}\\footnotesize\\item {note}\\end{{tablenotes}}\n"39 s += "\\end{threeparttable}\\end{table}\n"40 open(os.path.join(OUT, name + ".tex"), "w").write(s); INV.append({"file": name + ".tex", "caption": caption, "label": label, "sources": sources, "rows": int(len(df))})414243def main():44 p = f"{R}/data/metadata/prisma_counts.json"45 if os.path.exists(p):46 P = json.load(open(p)); rows = [("Identified: OpenAlex works with a CS topic, 2018–2026 (snapshot 2026-10-14, both passes)", P["identified"]["openalex_total_records_loaded"])]47 labels = {"e1_outside_window": "E1 outside the window", "e2_type": "E2 non-research document type", "e3_xpac": "E3 XPAC expansion record (not DBLP-linked)", "e4_no_title": "E4 no title", "e5_duplicate": "E5 preprint merged into its published version", "e7_generic_deposit": "E7 generic deposit platform without DBLP/arXiv support"}48 rows += [("Excluded " + labels.get(k, k), v) for k, v in P["excluded_sequential"].items()]49 rows += [("After exclusions", P["after_exclusions"]), ("CS core (mapping corpus)", P["cs_core_eligible"]), ("CS penumbra (sensitivity set)", P["cs_penumbra_eligible_otherwise"]), ("Strict core: DBLP-indexed and primary field CS", P["strict_core_dblp_and_cs_primary"])]50 write("tab_prisma", pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["Stage", "Records"]), "Record flow of the mapping corpus (PRISMA-style, sequential exclusions).", "tab:prisma", ["data/metadata/prisma_counts.json"])51 write("tab_eligible_by_year", pd.DataFrame(sorted(P["eligible_by_year"].items()), columns=["Year", "Eligible works"]), "Eligible works by publication year (2026 incomplete).", "tab:eligible_year", ["data/metadata/prisma_counts.json"])52 write("tab_eligible_by_type", pd.DataFrame(P["eligible_by_type"].items(), columns=["OpenAlex type", "Eligible works"]), "Eligible works by document type.", "tab:eligible_type", ["data/metadata/prisma_counts.json"])53 p = f"{R}/data/metadata/linkage_report.json"54 if os.path.exists(p):55 L = json.load(open(p)); rows = [("DBLP records 2018–2026", L["dblp_2018_2026"]), ("… with DOI", L["dblp_with_doi"]), ("DBLP ↔ OpenAlex links by DOI", L["link_dblp_oa"].get("doi", 0)), ("… by normalised title + year (+ first author)", L["link_dblp_oa"].get("title_year", 0)), ("DBLP records linked (distinct)", L["dblp_linked_distinct"]), ("DBLP records without OpenAlex record", L["dblp_unlinked"]),56 ("arXiv cs records created 2018–2026", L["arxiv_created_2018_2026"]), ("arXiv ↔ OpenAlex by arXiv id", L["link_arxiv_oa"].get("arxiv_id", 0)), ("… by DOI", L["link_arxiv_oa"].get("doi", 0)), ("… by title + year", L["link_arxiv_oa"].get("title_year", 0)), ("ACL entries 2018–2026", L["acl_2018_2026"]), ("ACL ↔ OpenAlex linked (2018–2026)", L["acl_linked_distinct_2018_2026"])]57 write("tab_linkage", pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["Quantity", "Count"]), "Record linkage between sources.", "tab:linkage", ["data/metadata/linkage_report.json"])58 for f, name, cap, cols in [("volume_yearly", "tab_volume_yearly", "Yearly volume and composition of the eligible corpus.", ["year", "n", "n_dblp", "n_cs_primary", "n_arxiv", "n_abstract", "n_oa", "n_preprint", "n_conf", "n_article", "mean_authors", "mean_refs"]),59 ("citation_windows_yearly", "tab_citation_windows", "Fixed-window citation statistics by publication year (c12: publication year + 1; c36: + 2 calendar years).", ["year", "n", "mean_c12", "mean_c36", "med_c36", "share_uncited_36", "p99_c36", "gini_c36", "gini_c12", "mean_fwci"]),60 ("team_size_yearly", "tab_team_size", "Team size and collaboration by year.", ["year", "n", "mean_authors", "med_authors", "single", "five_plus", "ten_plus", "intl", "multi_inst"]),61 ("industry_share_yearly", "tab_industry", "Works with a company affiliation by year.", ["year", "n_with_inst", "n_company", "share_company"]),62 ("venue_hhi_yearly", "tab_venue_hhi", "Venue concentration by year.", ["year", "n", "n_sources", "hhi", "top1_share"]),63 ("diversity_yearly", "tab_diversity", "Rao–Stirling and Leinster–Cobbold diversity of the category mix by year (bootstrap 95\\% CI).", ["year", "n", "rao_stirling", "rs_ci_low", "rs_ci_high", "leinster_cobbold_q2"]),64 ("cagr_by_category", "tab_cagr", "Compound annual growth by category, baseline (2018–2022) and post (2023–2025).", ["category", "n_2018", "n_2022", "n_2025", "cagr_baseline", "cagr_post", "share_2018", "share_2025"])]:65 p = f"{R}/results/bibliometrics/{f}.csv"66 if os.path.exists(p):67 d = pd.read_csv(p)68 if "period" in d.columns: d = d[d.period.isin(["baseline", "post"])]69 d = d[[c for c in cols if c in d.columns]]70 if "team" in f or "volume" in f: d = d[d.iloc[:, 0] <= 2026]71 write(name, d, cap, f"tab:{name[4:]}", [f"results/bibliometrics/{f}.csv"], longtable=len(d) > 30)72 p = f"{R}/results/bibliometrics/countries_yearly.csv"73 if os.path.exists(p):74 d = pd.read_csv(p); top = d.groupby("country").n_frac.sum().nlargest(15).index; piv = d[d.country.isin(top)].pivot_table(index="country", columns="year", values="n_frac").loc[top]75 piv = piv.round(0).astype(int).reset_index(); write("tab_countries", piv, "Fractional output of the fifteen largest countries by year.", "tab:countries", [p])76 p = f"{R}/results/econometrics/breaks.csv"77 if os.path.exists(p):78 d = pd.read_csv(p); cols = ["series", "chatgpt_level", "chatgpt_level_p", "chatgpt_slope", "chatgpt_slope_p", "placebo_level_p", "placebo_slope_p", "bp_breaks_bic", "pelt"]79 write("tab_breaks", d[[c for c in cols if c in d.columns]], "Structural-change estimates by series: ITS level and slope changes at 2022-12 (HAC p-values), placebo p-values, Bai–Perron (BIC) and PELT break dates.", "tab:breaks", [p], longtable=len(d) > 25)80 p = f"{R}/taxonomy/validation/metrics.json"81 if os.path.exists(p):82 M = json.load(open(p)); rows = []83 for k, v in M.items():84 if isinstance(v, dict) and "per_category" in v:85 for c, m in v["per_category"].items():86 rows.append({"comparison": k, "category": c, "precision": m["precision"], "recall": m["recall"], "f1": m["f1"], "tp": m["tp"], "fp": m["fp"], "fn": m["fn"]})87 if rows: write("tab_validation", pd.DataFrame(rows), "Taxonomy validation: precision, recall and F1 of the rule-based assignment against each rater and the rater consensus, by category.", "tab:validation", [p], longtable=True)88 for f in glob.glob(f"{R}/results/emerging/metrics_h*.json"):89 M = json.load(open(f)); rows = [{"model": m, "AUC": M[m]["auc"], "P@20": M[m]["precision_at_20"], "P@50": M[m]["precision_at_50"]} for m in ("zscore_baseline", "logistic", "gbm") if m in M]90 write("tab_emerging_h%d" % M["horizon"], pd.DataFrame(rows), f"Out-of-time performance of the emerging-topic detectors at horizon {M['horizon']} months (test cutoffs {M['test_cutoffs'][0]}–{M['test_cutoffs'][-1]}).", f"tab:emerging_h{M['horizon']}", [f])91 p = f"{R}/results/emerging/known_set_lead_times.csv"92 if os.path.exists(p):93 d = pd.read_csv(p)[["concept", "total_works", "detection_month", "peak_growth_month", "lead_months"]]; write("tab_known_set", d, "Preregistered known-emergence set: detection month, peak-growth month and lead time.", "tab:known_set", [p])94 tables_part08() # Part VIII tables (appended 2026-11-03)95 tables_part05() # Part V tables (Agent E, appended 2026-11-03)96 tables_part07b() # Part VII-b security tables (Agent H, appended 2026-11-03)97 tables_part06() # Part VI systems table (appended by Agent F, 2026-11-03)98 tables_part09() # Part IX results tables (appended by the Part IX writer, 2026-11-03)99 json.dump(INV, open(os.path.join(OUT, "TABLES.json"), "w"), indent=1); print(len(INV), "tables")100101102# ---------------- Part VIII (Scientific Knowledge Networks): tables appended by Agent L/I, 2026-11-03 ----------------103def _ascii(s, n=None):104 """Titles and venue names contain characters (U+2010, curly quotes, ...) that inputenc does not define; normalise to ASCII."""105 import unicodedata106 t = str(s).replace("‐", "-").replace("‑", "-").replace("–", "-").replace("—", "-").replace("’", "'").replace("‘", "'").replace("“", '"').replace("”", '"').replace("×", "x")107 t = unicodedata.normalize("NFKD", t).encode("ascii", "ignore").decode("ascii").replace("$", "\\$").replace("^", "").replace("~", "-").replace("{", "").replace("}", "")108 return (t[: n - 3].rstrip() + "\\dots") if (n and len(t) > n) else t109110111def tables_part08():112 B = f"{R}/results/bibliometrics"; G = f"{R}/results/graph"113 p = f"{B}/team_size_yearly.csv"; q = f"{B}/international_collab_yearly.csv"114 if os.path.exists(p):115 d = pd.read_csv(p); d = d[d.year <= 2026]116 d["sum_authors"] = d.mean_authors * d.n117 g = d.groupby("year").agg(n=("n", "sum"), sum_authors=("sum_authors", "sum"), single=("single", "sum"), five_plus=("five_plus", "sum"), ten_plus=("ten_plus", "sum"), multi_inst=("multi_inst", "sum"), no_country=("no_country", "sum")).reset_index()118 t = pd.DataFrame({"Year": g.year, "Works": g.n, "Mean authors": g.sum_authors / g.n, "Single (%)": 100 * g.single / g.n, "5+ (%)": 100 * g.five_plus / g.n, "10+ (%)": 100 * g.ten_plus / g.n, "Multi-inst. (%)": 100 * g.multi_inst / g.n, "No country (%)": 100 * g.no_country / g.n})119 if os.path.exists(q):120 i = pd.read_csv(q); t = t.merge(pd.DataFrame({"Year": i.year, "Intl. (%)": 100 * i.share_intl}), on="Year", how="left")121 t["Year"] = t.Year.astype(str)122 write("tab_collaboration", t, "Team size and collaboration indicators by publication year (all eligible works; periods of the source file summed).", "tab:collaboration", [p, q], fmt={"Mean authors": "{:.3f}", "Single (%)": "{:.1f}", "5+ (%)": "{:.1f}", "10+ (%)": "{:.1f}", "Multi-inst. (%)": "{:.1f}", "No country (%)": "{:.1f}", "Intl. (%)": "{:.1f}"},123 note="Columns: works with one author, five or more, ten or more authors, and more than one institution. Shares are over all eligible works of the year, including works without affiliation data (column `No country'); the international share is over works with at least one resolved country (ICS, Part IV). 2026 is incomplete.")124 p = f"{B}/institution_types_yearly.csv"125 if os.path.exists(p):126 d = pd.read_csv(p); d = d[d.year <= 2026]; tot = d.groupby("year").n.transform("sum"); d["share"] = 100 * d.n / tot127 piv = d.pivot_table(index="itype", columns="year", values="share").fillna(0); piv = piv.loc[piv.sum(axis=1).sort_values(ascending=False).index].reset_index(); piv.columns = ["Institution type"] + [str(c) for c in piv.columns[1:]]128 write("tab_institution_types", piv, "Share of typed affiliations by OpenAlex institution type and year (per cent of affiliation-work pairs).", "tab:institution_types", [p], fmt={c: "{:.2f}" for c in piv.columns[1:]}, note="A work with affiliations of several types counts once under each type; shares therefore describe the mix of affiliation types, not of works. Types follow the OpenAlex institution ontology (education, facility, company, government, healthcare, nonprofit, funder, archive, other).")129 p = f"{B}/countries_yearly.csv"130 if os.path.exists(p):131 d = pd.read_csv(p); d = d[d.year <= 2026]; tot = d.groupby("year")[["n_full", "n_frac"]].sum()132 top = d.groupby("country").n_frac.sum().nlargest(15).index133 sh = d[d.country.isin(top)].copy(); sh["share"] = 100 * sh.n_frac / sh.year.map(tot.n_frac); piv = sh.pivot_table(index="country", columns="year", values="share").loc[top].reset_index(); piv.columns = ["Country"] + [str(c) for c in piv.columns[1:]]134 write("tab_country_shares", piv, "Share of fractional output of the fifteen largest countries by year (per cent).", "tab:country_shares", [p], fmt={c: "{:.2f}" for c in piv.columns[1:]}, note="Fractional counting: each work is divided equally among its distinct author countries, so the shares of all countries sum to 100 within a year. ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 codes. 2026 is incomplete.")135 rows = []136 for y, g in d.groupby("year"):137 pf = g.n_frac / g.n_frac.sum(); cn = g[g.country == "CN"]; us = g[g.country == "US"]138 rows.append({"Year": str(y), "Works": int(round(g.n_frac.sum())), "Countries": int(len(g)), "HHI": float((pf ** 2).sum()), "Top-5 (%)": 100 * pf.nlargest(5).sum(), "Top-10 (%)": 100 * pf.nlargest(10).sum(), "CN works (%)": 100 * float(cn.n_full.sum()) / g.n_frac.sum(), "US works (%)": 100 * float(us.n_full.sum()) / g.n_frac.sum(), "CN full/frac": float(cn.n_full.sum()) / float(cn.n_frac.sum()), "US full/frac": float(us.n_full.sum()) / float(us.n_frac.sum())})139 write("tab_country_concentration", pd.DataFrame(rows), "Concentration of output across countries by year, and the two largest producers under full counting.", "tab:country_concentration", [p], fmt={"HHI": "{:.4f}", "Top-5 (%)": "{:.1f}", "Top-10 (%)": "{:.1f}", "CN works (%)": "{:.2f}", "US works (%)": "{:.2f}", "CN full/frac": "{:.3f}", "US full/frac": "{:.3f}"},140 note="Works: fractional total of works with at least one country; Countries: number of countries with any output; HHI: Herfindahl--Hirschman index of fractional country shares; Top-5/Top-10: fractional share of the five and ten largest countries. CN/US works: share of works with at least one author in the country among works with a country (full counting); CN/US full/frac: ratio of the country's full count to its fractional count, which exceeds one by the extent to which its works are co-authored with other countries.")141 p = f"{B}/country_pairs_by_period.csv"142 if os.path.exists(p):143 d = pd.read_csv(p); d = d[d.period.isin(["baseline", "post"])]144 rows = []145 for per in ["baseline", "post"]:146 g = d[d.period == per]; w = g.n.sum(); cu = g[g.c1.isin(["CN", "US"]) & g.c2.isin(["CN", "US"])].n.sum(); st = pd.concat([g[["c1", "n"]].rename(columns={"c1": "c"}), g[["c2", "n"]].rename(columns={"c2": "c"})]).groupby("c").n.sum().sort_values(ascending=False)147 rows.append({"Period": per, "Edges": int(len(g)), "Countries": int(len(set(g.c1) | set(g.c2))), "Weight": int(w), "CN--US": int(cu), "CN--US (%)": 100 * cu / w, "Top strength": st.index[0] + ", " + st.index[1] + ", " + st.index[2]})148 write("tab_country_network", pd.DataFrame(rows), "The country co-authorship network by period: edges with at least fifty joint works.", "tab:country_network", [p], fmt={"CN--US (%)": "{:.2f}"}, note="Edges: country pairs with at least fifty joint works; Weight: total joint works over these edges; CN--US: weight of the China--United States edge and its share of the total; Top strength: the three countries with the largest strength (sum of edge weights). Baseline: 2018-01-01 to 2022-11-29; post: 2022-11-30 to 2026-11-02 (incomplete).")149 b = d[d.period == "baseline"].sort_values("n", ascending=False).head(20).reset_index(drop=True); q = d[d.period == "post"].sort_values("n", ascending=False).head(20).reset_index(drop=True)150 t = pd.DataFrame({"Rank": [str(i + 1) for i in range(20)], "Pair (baseline)": b.c1 + "--" + b.c2, "Joint works (baseline)": b.n.astype(int), "Pair (post)": q.c1 + "--" + q.c2, "Joint works (post)": q.n.astype(int)})151 write("tab_country_pairs", t, "The twenty strongest country pairs by period (number of joint works).", "tab:country_pairs", [p], note="Pairs are unordered; HK and MO are OpenAlex country codes for Hong Kong and Macau and are distinct from CN in the affiliation data. The post period is incomplete.")152 p = f"{B}/top_institutions_by_period.csv"153 if os.path.exists(p):154 d = pd.read_csv(p); b = d[d.period == "baseline"].set_index("inst_id"); q = d[d.period == "post"].set_index("inst_id"); j = b.join(q, lsuffix="_b", rsuffix="_p", how="inner")155 rows = []156 for per, g in [("baseline", b), ("post", q)]:157 pf = g.n_frac / g.n_frac.sum()158 rows.append({"Period": per, "Institutions": int(len(g)), "Fractional works": int(round(g.n_frac.sum())), "Full-count works": int(g.n_full.sum()), "Top-10 (%)": 100 * pf.nlargest(10).sum(), "Top-50 (%)": 100 * pf.nlargest(50).sum(), "Top-100 (%)": 100 * pf.nlargest(100).sum()})159 rows.append({"Period": "both periods", "Institutions": int(len(j)), "Fractional works": int(round(j.n_frac_b.sum())), "Full-count works": int(j.n_full_b.sum()), "Top-10 (%)": float("nan"), "Top-50 (%)": float("nan"), "Top-100 (%)": float("nan")})160 t = pd.DataFrame(rows); write("tab_institution_concentration", t, "Institutions with at least two hundred works per period: coverage and concentration (fractional counting).", "tab:institution_concentration", [p], fmt={"Top-10 (%)": "{:.2f}", "Top-50 (%)": "{:.2f}", "Top-100 (%)": "{:.2f}"},161 note=f"Institutions: number with at least two hundred works in the period; Top-10/50/100: fractional share of the largest listed institutions relative to the listed institutions, not to all works. The row `both periods' counts the institutions present in both lists (its work columns are their baseline totals); the Spearman rank correlation of their fractional counts across periods is {j.n_frac_b.rank().corr(j.n_frac_p.rank(), method='spearman'):.3f}.")162 top = j.sort_values("n_frac_p", ascending=False).head(25)163 t = pd.DataFrame({"OpenAlex id": ["I" + str(i) for i in top.index], "Full, base": top.n_full_b.astype(int).values, "Frac., base": top.n_frac_b.values, "Full, post": top.n_full_p.astype(int).values, "Frac., post": top.n_frac_p.values, "Ratio": (top.n_frac_p / top.n_frac_b).values})164 write("tab_top_institutions", t, "The twenty-five institutions with the largest fractional output in the post period, with their baseline output.", "tab:top_institutions", [p], fmt={"Frac., base": "{:,.0f}", "Frac., post": "{:,.0f}", "Ratio": "{:.2f}"}, longtable=False,165 note="Full and fractional counts in the baseline and post periods; Ratio is the post-to-baseline ratio of fractional counts. Institution names are not stored in the result file; the identifiers resolve at https://openalex.org/I<id>. The post period is about ten months shorter than the baseline, so a ratio below the corpus-wide ratio does not indicate decline.")166 p = f"{B}/top_sources_by_period.csv"167 if os.path.exists(p):168 d = pd.read_csv(p); d = d[d.period.isin(["baseline", "post"])]169 rows = []170 for per in ["baseline", "post"]:171 g = d[d.period == per]; bt = g.groupby("source_type").n.sum(); w = bt.sum()172 r = {"Period": per, "Sources": int(len(g)), "Works": int(w)}173 for ty in ["journal", "conference", "repository", "book series", "ebook platform"]:174 r[ty.replace("ebook platform", "ebook").replace("book series", "series") + " (%)"] = 100 * float(bt.get(ty, 0)) / w175 rows.append(r)176 write("tab_source_types", pd.DataFrame(rows), "Distribution of works over source types among the listed sources, by period (per cent).", "tab:source_types", [p], fmt={c: "{:.1f}" for c in ["journal (%)", "conference (%)", "repository (%)", "series (%)", "ebook (%)"]}, note="Source types are OpenAlex's (series = book series; ebook = ebook platform). The listed sources are those retained by the bibliometric script for each period; works whose primary source is not listed are excluded from the denominators.")177 b = d[d.period == "baseline"].sort_values("n", ascending=False).head(20).reset_index(drop=True); q = d[d.period == "post"].sort_values("n", ascending=False).head(20).reset_index(drop=True)178 t = pd.DataFrame({"Rank": [str(i + 1) for i in range(20)], "Source (baseline)": [_ascii(x, 30) for x in b.source_name], "Type": [_ascii(x).replace("ebook platform", "ebook").replace("book series", "series").replace("repository", "repos.").replace("conference", "conf.") for x in b.source_type], "Works": b.n.astype(int), "Source (post)": [_ascii(x, 30) for x in q.source_name], "Type ": [_ascii(x).replace("ebook platform", "ebook").replace("book series", "series").replace("repository", "repos.").replace("conference", "conf.") for x in q.source_type], "Works ": q.n.astype(int)})179 write("tab_top_sources", t, "The twenty largest sources (venues) by period, with OpenAlex source type.", "tab:top_sources", [p], longtable=True, note="Source names are OpenAlex display names, truncated; types abbreviated (repos. = repository, conf. = conference, series = book series, ebook = ebook platform).")180 p = f"{G}/cited_age_yearly.csv"181 if os.path.exists(p):182 d = pd.read_csv(p); rows = []183 for y, g in d.groupby("citing_year"):184 if y < 2018 or y > 2026: continue185 n = g.n.sum(); neg = g[g.age < 0].n.sum(); gg = g[g.age >= 0].sort_values("age"); w = gg.n.values; ag = gg.age.values186 import numpy as np187 cum = np.cumsum(w) / w.sum(); med = int(ag[np.searchsorted(cum, 0.5)])188 rows.append({"Citing year": str(y), "References": int(n), "Negative (%)": 100 * neg / n, "Mean age": float((w * ag).sum() / w.sum()), "Median": med, "0--2 y (%)": 100 * gg[gg.age <= 2].n.sum() / w.sum(), "0--5 y (%)": 100 * gg[gg.age <= 5].n.sum() / w.sum(), "over 10 y (%)": 100 * gg[gg.age > 10].n.sum() / w.sum()})189 write("tab_cited_age", pd.DataFrame(rows), "Age of cited works by citing year (resolved references of eligible works; corpus version of the result file at generation time).", "tab:cited_age", [p], fmt={"Negative (%)": "{:.2f}", "Mean age": "{:.2f}", "0--2 y (%)": "{:.1f}", "0--5 y (%)": "{:.1f}", "over 10 y (%)": "{:.1f}"},190 note="References: resolved references of eligible works of the citing year. Age is the citing year minus the cited work's publication year. Negative ages (cited work dated after the citing work: preprints cited before their published version, or year-only dates) are excluded from the age statistics and reported as a share. The 2026 row is incomplete.")191 p = f"{B}/top_cited_by_year.csv"192 if os.path.exists(p):193 d = pd.read_csv(p); d = d[(d.year >= 2018) & (d.year <= 2025) & (d.rk <= 10)].sort_values(["year", "rk"])194 t = pd.DataFrame({"Year": d.year.astype(str).values, "Rk": d.rk.astype(str).values, "Title (truncated)": [_ascii(x, 44) for x in d.title], "c36": d.c36.astype(int).values, "Total": d.cited_by_count.astype(int).values})195 write("tab_top_cited", t, "The ten most cited works of each publication year by 36-month window citations (c36), with total citations to date.", "tab:top_cited", [p], longtable=True, note="As recorded in OpenAlex (snapshot 2026-10-14 plus increment). Several entries are duplicate or misdated records of canonical works, or records whose citation counts are inconsistent with their total (c36 larger than the total, or a total of zero); they are kept because the table documents what the database returns, and are discussed in the text.")196 p = f"{B}/dblp_only_yearly.csv"197 if os.path.exists(p):198 d = pd.read_csv(p); piv = d.pivot_table(index="year", columns="rec_type", values="n", aggfunc="sum").fillna(0).astype(int); piv["total"] = piv.sum(axis=1); piv["with DOI (%)"] = 100 * d.groupby("year").with_doi.sum() / d.groupby("year").n.sum()199 piv = piv.reset_index(); piv["year"] = piv.year.astype(str); piv.columns = ["Year"] + [str(c) for c in piv.columns[1:]]200 write("tab_dblp_only", piv, "DBLP records of 2018--2026 without an OpenAlex counterpart, by DBLP record type and year.", "tab:dblp_only", [p], fmt={"with DOI (%)": "{:.1f}"}, note="These records are in DBLP but were not linked to any OpenAlex work by DOI, arXiv identifier or normalised title (Part IV). They are not in the eligible corpus; the table bounds what DBLP-based studies would see that this corpus does not.")201 p = f"{B}/indexing_lag.csv"202 if os.path.exists(p):203 d = pd.read_csv(p); d["year"] = d.pub_month.str[:4].astype(int); rows = []204 for y, g in d.groupby("year"):205 jan = g[g.pub_month.str.endswith("-01")]; jun = g[g.pub_month.str.endswith("-06")]206 rows.append({"Year": str(y), "Works": int(g.n.sum()), "Lag, Jan. (d)": float(jan.lag_days_p50.iloc[0]) if len(jan) else float("nan"), "Lag, June (d)": float(jun.lag_days_p50.iloc[0]) if len(jun) else float("nan"), "Within 90 d (%)": 100 * g.n_indexed_within_90d.sum() / g.n.sum(), "After 180 d (%)": 100 * g.n_indexed_after_180d.sum() / g.n.sum()})207 write("tab_indexing_lag", pd.DataFrame(rows), "The OpenAlex \\texttt{created\\_date} relative to the publication date, by publication year.", "tab:indexing_lag", [p], fmt={"Lag, Jan. (d)": "{:.0f}", "Lag, June (d)": "{:.0f}", "Within 90 d (%)": "{:.1f}", "After 180 d (%)": "{:.1f}"},208 note="Lag is created\\_date minus publication date; the two lag columns give the median lag in days for works published in January and in June of the year; the last two columns give the shares of the year's works whose record was created within 90 days and after 180 days of publication. The near-constant decline of the median by one month per publication month in 2018--2024 identifies a single creation date for most records (a re-ingestion), not an indexing delay; see Part III.")209 # ---- corpus v3 graph tables (appended by Agent L/M, 2026-11-03): reference coverage and field-level inflows ----210 p = f"{G}/reference_coverage_yearly.csv"211 if os.path.exists(p):212 d = pd.read_csv(p); d = d[(d.year >= 2018) & (d.year <= 2026)].copy(); res = d.n_internal + d.n_external213 t = pd.DataFrame({"Year": d.year.astype(str), "Works": d.n_works.astype(int), "Declared refs.": d.n_refs_declared.astype(int), "Refs./work": d.n_refs_declared / d.n_works, "Resolved (%)": 100 * res / d.n_refs_declared, "Internal": d.n_internal.astype(int), "External": d.n_external.astype(int), "Internal (%)": 100 * d.n_internal / res})214 write("tab_reference_coverage", t, "Reference coverage by citing year: declared, resolved, internal and external references of eligible works.", "tab:reference_coverage", [p], fmt={"Refs./work": "{:.2f}", "Resolved (%)": "{:.2f}", "Internal (%)": "{:.2f}"},215 note="Works: eligible works of the year (including works with no reference list); Declared: entries of their OpenAlex \\texttt{referenced\\_works} lists; Resolved: declared references that resolve to an OpenAlex record (internal = cited work in the eligible corpus; external = cited work outside it), as a share of the declared count; Internal (\\%): internal share of resolved references. The resolved share of 2025--2026 is higher than in earlier years because the recent cohorts carry fewer parsed references per work (reference extraction lags publication) and the parsed ones resolve more often; it describes the database, not citing behaviour. The 2026 row is incomplete.")216 p = f"{G}/field_flows_yearly.csv"217 if os.path.exists(p):218 d = pd.read_csv(p); d = d[(d.citing_year >= 2018) & (d.citing_year <= 2026)]; tot = d.groupby("citing_year").n.sum()219 names = {17: "CS", 22: "Eng.", 33: "Soc.", 27: "Med.", 26: "Math.", 18: "Dec.", 32: "Psy.", 31: "Phys."}220 ext = d[d.kind == "external"]; internal = d[d.kind == "internal"].groupby("citing_year").n.sum().reindex(tot.index).fillna(0)221 byf = ext.pivot_table(index="citing_year", columns="cited_field_id", values="n", aggfunc="sum").reindex(tot.index).fillna(0)222 cs = byf[17.0] if 17.0 in byf.columns else 0 * tot223 t = pd.DataFrame({"Year": [str(y) for y in tot.index], "Inside": 100 * internal.values / tot.values, "CS out": 100 * cs.values / tot.values, "Other": 100 * (tot.values - internal.values - cs.values) / tot.values})224 for fid in [22, 33, 27, 26, 18, 32, 31]:225 t[names[fid]] = 100 * (byf[float(fid)].values if float(fid) in byf.columns else 0) / tot.values226 write("tab_field_flows", t, "Destination of the resolved references of eligible works by citing year: inside the corpus, computer science outside it, and the seven largest other OpenAlex fields (per cent of resolved references).", "tab:field_flows", [p], fmt={c: "{:.2f}" for c in t.columns[1:]},227 note="Shares of all resolved references of the citing year. Inside: cited work is an eligible work (computer science, 2018--2026); CS out: cited work outside the corpus whose primary OpenAlex field is Computer Science (field 17; mostly pre-2018 work); Other: all remaining external references, including those without a field. The seven field columns are the largest components of `Other': Eng. = Engineering (OpenAlex field 22), Soc. = Social Sciences (33), Med. = Medicine (27), Math. = Mathematics (26), Dec. = Decision Sciences (18), Psy. = Psychology (32), Phys. = Physics and Astronomy (31). The rise of the inside-corpus share is mechanical: the corpus starts in 2018, so later citing years have more corpus to cite. The 2026 row is incomplete.")228229230def tables_part06():231 """Part VI — the eleven systems categories: primary-category counts and CAGR (cagr_by_category.csv) joined with the232 structural-change estimates of breaks.csv (ITS slope change at 2022-12, HAC p, placebo p, Bai–Perron BIC break dates)."""233 B = f"{R}/results/bibliometrics"; E = f"{R}/results/econometrics"234 cats = ["computer_architecture", "ai_accelerators", "operating_systems", "distributed_computing", "cloud_computing", "edge_computing", "computer_networks", "database_systems", "information_retrieval", "quantum_computing", "sustainable_computing"]235 names = {"computer_architecture": "Computer architecture", "ai_accelerators": "Accelerators and AI hardware", "operating_systems": "Operating systems", "distributed_computing": "Distributed computing", "cloud_computing": "Cloud computing", "edge_computing": "Edge computing", "computer_networks": "Computer networks", "database_systems": "Database systems", "information_retrieval": "Information retrieval", "quantum_computing": "Quantum computing", "sustainable_computing": "Sustainable computing"}236 p, q = f"{B}/cagr_by_category.csv", f"{E}/breaks.csv"237 if os.path.exists(p) and os.path.exists(q):238 c = pd.read_csv(p).set_index("category"); b = pd.read_csv(q).set_index("series"); rows = []239 for k in cats:240 if k not in c.index: continue241 r = c.loc[k]; s = b.loc["cat_" + k] if ("cat_" + k) in b.index else None242 rows.append({"Category": names[k], "n 2018": int(r.n_2018), "n 2022": int(r.n_2022), "n 2025": int(r.n_2025), "CAGR base": float(r.cagr_baseline), "CAGR post": float(r.cagr_post),243 "Slope ch.": float(s.chatgpt_slope) if s is not None else float("nan"), "p": float(s.chatgpt_slope_p) if s is not None else float("nan"),244 "Placebo p": float(s.placebo_slope_p) if s is not None else float("nan"), "BP breaks": str(s.bp_breaks_bic) if s is not None else ""})245 write("tab_systems_categories", pd.DataFrame(rows), "The systems and infrastructure categories of Part VI: primary-category output, compound annual growth, and structural-change estimates of the monthly log-volume series.", "tab:systems_categories", [p, q],246 fmt={"CAGR base": "{:.3f}", "CAGR post": "{:.3f}", "Slope ch.": "{:.3f}", "p": "{:.3f}", "Placebo p": "{:.3f}"},247 note="Counts are eligible works whose primary category is the row category (multi-label memberships are larger). CAGR base: 2018 to 2022; CAGR post: 2023 to 2025 (complete years). Slope ch.: change in the monthly trend of the log-volume series at 2022-12 in the interrupted time-series model of Part IV, with its HAC p-value; Placebo p: share of placebo event dates whose slope statistic is at least as extreme; BP breaks: Bai--Perron break dates selected by BIC. 2026 is incomplete and excluded from the growth columns.")248249250251# ---------------- Part VII-b (security half of Part VII): tables appended by Agent H, 2026-11-03 ----------------252def tables_part07b():253 G = f"{R}/results/graph"; B = f"{R}/results/bibliometrics"; E = f"{R}/results/econometrics"254 SEC = ["cybersecurity", "applied_cryptography", "blockchain", "privacy_preserving_computation", "federated_learning"]255 NAMES = {"cybersecurity": "Cybersecurity", "applied_cryptography": "Applied cryptography", "blockchain": "Blockchain systems", "privacy_preserving_computation": "Privacy-preserving computation", "federated_learning": "Federated learning"}256 SHORT = {"cybersecurity": "Cyber.", "applied_cryptography": "Crypto.", "blockchain": "Blockch.", "privacy_preserving_computation": "Privacy", "federated_learning": "Fed. learn."}257 p = f"{G}/category_counts_yearly.csv"; agg = None258 if os.path.exists(p):259 d = pd.read_csv(p); d = d[d.category_id.isin(SEC)].groupby(["year", "category_id"])[["n_multilabel", "n_primary"]].sum().reset_index()260 agg = d261 t = pd.DataFrame({"Year": sorted(d.year.unique().astype(str))})262 for v, suffix in (("n_multilabel", " (all)"), ("n_primary", " (prim.)")):263 piv = d.pivot_table(index="year", columns="category_id", values=v, aggfunc="sum", fill_value=0).astype(int)264 for c in SEC: t[SHORT[c] + suffix] = piv[c].values265 write("tab_security_counts", t, "Eligible works in the five security-and-privacy categories by publication year: works carrying the category (all) and works whose primary category it is (prim.).", "tab:security_counts", [p], longtable=True,266 note="Counts of eligible works (Part III) per publication year, summed over the pre/baseline/post period labels of the result file. `all' counts every work to which the multi-label classifier assigns the category (a work can carry several categories); `prim.' counts works for which the category is the argmax of the assignment score (Part IV). Cyber. = cybersecurity; Crypto. = applied cryptography; Blockch. = blockchain systems; Privacy = privacy-preserving computation; Fed. learn. = federated learning. The 2026 row is incomplete (the corpus ends on 2026-11-02 and recent months are under-indexed).")267 p = f"{E}/breaks.csv"; q = f"{B}/cagr_by_category.csv"268 if os.path.exists(p) and agg is not None:269 b = pd.read_csv(p).set_index("series"); rows = []270 for c in SEC:271 g = agg[agg.category_id == c].set_index("year")272 m18, m22, m23, m25 = (int(g.loc[y, "n_multilabel"]) if y in g.index else 0 for y in (2018, 2022, 2023, 2025))273 r = b.loc[f"cat_{c}"]274 rows.append({"Category": NAMES[c], "Works 2018": m18, "Works 2025": m25, "CAGR 18--22 (%)": 100 * ((m22 / m18) ** 0.25 - 1) if m18 else float("nan"), "CAGR 23--25 (%)": 100 * ((m25 / m23) ** 0.5 - 1) if m23 else float("nan"),275 "Level 2022-12": float(r.chatgpt_level), "p": float(r.chatgpt_level_p), "Slope change": float(r.chatgpt_slope), "p ": float(r.chatgpt_slope_p), "Placebo p (slope)": float(r.placebo_slope_p), "Bai--Perron": str(r.bp_breaks_bic).replace(";", ", "), "PELT": str(r.pelt).replace(";", ", ")})276 write("tab_security_summary", pd.DataFrame(rows), "Growth and structural-change summary for the five security-and-privacy categories (multi-label counts).", "tab:security_summary", [f"{G}/category_counts_yearly.csv", p], fmt={"CAGR 18--22 (%)": "{:.1f}", "CAGR 23--25 (%)": "{:.1f}", "Level 2022-12": "{:.3f}", "p": "{:.3f}", "Slope change": "{:.3f}", "p ": "{:.3f}", "Placebo p (slope)": "{:.3f}"},277 note="Works: eligible works carrying the category (multi-label). CAGR: compound annual growth of the multi-label count between the years shown (2026 excluded as incomplete). Level and slope change: interrupted-time-series estimates on the log monthly series at the 2022-12 reference month with HAC p-values (Part IV, Section~\\ref{sec:m-its}); Placebo p: share of placebo event months whose slope t-statistic exceeds the one at 2022-12 (Section~\\ref{sec:m-placebo}); Bai--Perron: BIC-selected break months (Section~\\ref{sec:m-bp}); PELT: penalised change-point months. The ITS, placebo and break columns are those of Table~\\ref{tab:breaks}.")278 p = f"{G}/category_cooccurrence_yearly.csv"279 if os.path.exists(p) and agg is not None:280 d = pd.read_csv(p); pairs = [("cybersecurity", "llm"), ("cybersecurity", "ai_safety"), ("cybersecurity", "ai_agents"), ("applied_cryptography", "llm"), ("blockchain", "llm"), ("privacy_preserving_computation", "llm"), ("federated_learning", "llm")]281 LAB = {"llm": "LLM", "ai_safety": "AI safety", "ai_agents": "AI agents"}282 rows = []283 for y in sorted(d.year.unique()):284 if y < 2018 or y > 2026: continue285 row = {"Year": str(y)}286 for a, bb in pairs:287 n = d[(d.year == y) & (((d.cat_a == a) & (d.cat_b == bb)) | ((d.cat_a == bb) & (d.cat_b == a)))].n.sum()288 m = agg[(agg.year == y) & (agg.category_id == a)].n_multilabel.sum()289 row[f"{SHORT[a]} x {LAB[bb]}"] = int(n); row[f"{SHORT[a]} x {LAB[bb]} (%)"] = 100 * n / m if m else float("nan")290 rows.append(row)291 t = pd.DataFrame(rows); cols = ["Year"] + [c for c in t.columns if c != "Year"]292 write("tab_security_llm_cooccurrence", t[cols], "Co-classification of security-and-privacy works with the LLM, AI-safety and AI-agents categories, by publication year: number of works carrying both categories and share of the security category's works.", "tab:security_llm_cooccurrence", [p, f"{G}/category_counts_yearly.csv"], longtable=True, fmt={c: "{:.1f}" for c in cols if c.endswith("(%)")},293 note="A work is co-classified when the multi-label classifier assigns both categories (Part IV). Shares are relative to all eligible works carrying the security category in the year (multi-label count). Non-zero counts before 2022 reflect the breadth of the keyword patterns of the AI categories (for example `language model' matches pre-transformer work), not the use of LLMs; the table should be read for its trend, not its level. The 2026 row is incomplete.")294 p = f"{R}/literature_synthesis/landmarks/security_privacy_landmarks.csv"295 if os.path.exists(p):296 d = pd.read_csv(p); rows = []297 for c in SEC:298 g = d[d.primary_category == c]299 rows.append({"Category": NAMES[c], "Works": int(len(g)), "Post-period": int((g.period == "post").sum()), "Dated 2026": int((g.year == 2026).sum()), "Articles": int(g.type.isin(["article", "review"]).sum()), "Conf.": int((g.type == "conference-paper").sum()), "Preprints": int((g.type == "preprint").sum()), "Grey": int(g.type.isin(["dissertation", "report", "book-chapter", "book"]).sum()), "Abstract": int((g.has_abstract == True).sum()), "No DOI": int(g.doi.isna().sum())})300 write("tab_security_landmarks", pd.DataFrame(rows), "Composition of the automatically selected landmark set of the security-and-privacy area, by category.", "tab:security_landmarks", [p],301 note="Landmarks are the works with the highest field-normalised 36-month citation score (NCS36; 2025--2026 works ranked by 12-month citations) within each primary category, with a floor of fifteen per category, plus the 200 most cited works of the corpus overall (literature_synthesis/select_landmarks.py). Grey = dissertations, reports, book chapters and books as typed by OpenAlex. Abstract = works whose abstract is available in the metadata; the synthesis of Part VII reads these abstracts only, never full texts. The set is flagged for principal-investigator review; Part VII documents the records that are duplicates, misdated or misclassified.")302303304# ---------------- Part IX (Empirical Results): tables appended by Agent L/I/J (Part IX writer), 2026-11-03 ----------------305def _p9_names():306 import yaml307 o = yaml.safe_load(open(f"{R}/taxonomy/ontology.yaml"))308 return {c["id"]: c["name"] for c in o["categories"]}, {c["id"]: c["area"] for c in o["categories"]}, {a["id"]: a["name"] for a in o["areas"]}309310311_P9_AREA_SHORT = {"ai_ml": "AI & ML", "perception_interaction": "Perception & interaction", "software_pl": "Software & PL", "theory": "Theory", "data_distributed": "Data & distributed",312 "security_privacy": "Security & privacy", "hardware_emerging": "Hardware & emerging", "computational_science": "Computational science"}313_P9_EVENTS = [("gpt3", "GPT-3 (2020-06)"), ("dalle2", "DALL$\\cdot$E 2 (2022-05)"), ("chatgpt", "ChatGPT (2022-12)"), ("gpt4", "GPT-4 (2023-04)"), ("o1", "o1 (2024-10)")]314315316def _p9_estp(e, p):317 return f"{e:+.3f} ({p:.3f})" if pd.notna(e) and pd.notna(p) else ""318319320def tables_part09():321 import numpy as np322 names, area, area_names = _p9_names(); B = f"{R}/results/bibliometrics"; G = f"{R}/results/graph"; E = f"{R}/results/econometrics"; X = f"{R}/results/emerging"323 # --- corpus by period (volume_monthly, baseline vs post) ---324 p = f"{B}/volume_monthly.csv"325 if os.path.exists(p):326 m = pd.read_csv(p); m = m[m.period.isin(["baseline", "post"])]; rows = []327 tot = m.groupby("period").n.sum()328 def share(mask, label):329 s = m[mask].groupby("period").n.sum().reindex(["baseline", "post"]).fillna(0) / tot * 100330 rows.append({"Indicator": label, "Baseline": float(s["baseline"]), "Post": float(s["post"])})331 rows.append({"Indicator": "Eligible works (count)", "Baseline": float(tot["baseline"]), "Post": float(tot["post"])})332 share(m.date_precision.eq("month"), "Month-precision first date (%)"); share(m.in_dblp.astype(bool), "DBLP-indexed (%)"); share(m.cs_primary.astype(bool), "OpenAlex primary field CS (%)")333 share(m.has_arxiv.astype(bool), "arXiv-linked (%)")334 for c, lab in [("n_abstract", "With abstract (%)"), ("n_with_refs", "With at least one reference (%)"), ("n_oa", "Open access (%)")]:335 s = m.groupby("period")[c].sum() / tot * 100; rows.append({"Indicator": lab, "Baseline": float(s["baseline"]), "Post": float(s["post"])})336 for ty, lab in [("article", "Type: article (%)"), ("conference-paper", "Type: conference paper (%)"), ("preprint", "Type: preprint (%)"), ("book-chapter", "Type: book chapter (%)"), ("dissertation", "Type: dissertation (%)")]:337 share(m.type.eq(ty), lab)338 t = pd.DataFrame(rows)339 for c in ("Baseline", "Post"): t[c] = [f"{v:,.0f}" if i == 0 else f"{v:.2f}" for i, v in enumerate(t[c])]340 write("tab_p9_periods", t, "The eligible corpus by protocol period: completeness, source membership and document type.", "tab:p9-periods", [p], fmt={"Baseline": "{:,.2f}", "Post": "{:,.2f}"},341 note="Baseline: first date 2018-01-01 to 2022-11-29; post: 2022-11-30 to 2026-11-02 (right-truncated, see Part III). Percentages are over all eligible works of the period. The first row is a count.")342 # --- classification coverage by year ---343 p = f"{G}/category_counts_yearly.csv"; q = f"{R}/data/metadata/prisma_counts.json"344 if os.path.exists(p) and os.path.exists(q):345 cc = pd.read_csv(p); cc = cc[(cc.year >= 2018) & (cc.year <= 2026)]; P = json.load(open(q))["eligible_by_year"]346 y = cc.groupby("year")[["n_primary", "n_multilabel"]].sum(); y["eligible"] = [P[str(i)] for i in y.index]347 t = pd.DataFrame({"Year": y.index.astype(str), "Eligible works": y.eligible, "With primary category": y.n_primary, "Coverage (%)": 100 * y.n_primary / y.eligible, "Category assignments": y.n_multilabel, "Labels per classified work": y.n_multilabel / y.n_primary})348 write("tab_p9_classification", t, "Classification coverage by publication year: eligible works, works with a primary category, and multi-label assignments.", "tab:p9-classification", [p, q], fmt={"Coverage (%)": "{:.1f}", "Labels per classified work": "{:.2f}"},349 note="A work receives a primary category when at least one category score passes the threshold of Part IV; works without any assignment (no abstract, unmapped venue and no arXiv category) have no primary category and enter no category series. Assignments count every (work, category) pair. 2026 is incomplete.")350 cc["area"] = cc.category_id.map(area)351 ya = cc.groupby(["year", "area"]).n_primary.sum().unstack().fillna(0); sh = ya.div(ya.sum(1), axis=0) * 100352 per = cc[cc.period.isin(["baseline", "post"])].groupby(["period", "area"]).n_primary.sum().unstack().fillna(0); shp = per.div(per.sum(1), axis=0) * 100353 t = pd.concat([sh, shp.loc[["baseline", "post"]]]); t.index = [str(i) for i in sh.index] + ["Baseline (2018-01 to 2022-11)", "Post (2022-12 to 2026-11)"]354 t = t[[a for a in _P9_AREA_SHORT if a in t.columns]].rename(columns=_P9_AREA_SHORT).reset_index().rename(columns={"index": "Year / period"})355 write("tab_p9_area_shares", t, "Share of primary-category assignments by top-level area and year (per cent), with the two protocol periods.", "tab:p9-area-shares", [p], fmt={c: "{:.2f}" for c in _P9_AREA_SHORT.values()},356 note="Shares of works with a primary category (Table~\\ref{tab:p9-classification}); rows sum to 100. The period rows split at the reference date; the year rows split at the calendar year. 2026 is incomplete.")357 # category-level periods joined with CAGR358 cp = cc[cc.period.isin(["baseline", "post"])].groupby(["period", "category_id"])[["n_primary", "n_multilabel"]].sum().unstack(0)359 cp.columns = ["_".join(c) for c in cp.columns]360 r = f"{B}/cagr_by_category.csv"; cg = pd.read_csv(r).set_index("category") if os.path.exists(r) else None361 rows = []362 for k in cp.index:363 rr = cp.loc[k]; rows.append({"Category": names.get(k, k), "Area": _P9_AREA_SHORT.get(area.get(k), area.get(k)), "Primary, base": int(rr.n_primary_baseline), "Primary, post": int(rr.n_primary_post),364 "Share base (%)": 100 * rr.n_primary_baseline / cp.n_primary_baseline.sum(), "Share post (%)": 100 * rr.n_primary_post / cp.n_primary_post.sum(),365 "Multi-label post/base": rr.n_multilabel_post / rr.n_multilabel_baseline if rr.n_multilabel_baseline > 0 else float("nan"),366 "CAGR base": float(cg.loc[k, "cagr_baseline"]) if cg is not None and k in cg.index else float("nan"), "CAGR post": float(cg.loc[k, "cagr_post"]) if cg is not None and k in cg.index else float("nan")})367 t = pd.DataFrame(rows).sort_values("Share post (%)", ascending=False)368 write("tab_p9_category_periods", t, "The forty categories by protocol period: primary-category output, composition shares, multi-label growth and compound annual growth rates.", "tab:p9-category-periods", [p, r], longtable=True,369 fmt={"Share base (%)": "{:.2f}", "Share post (%)": "{:.2f}", "Multi-label post/base": "{:.2f}", "CAGR base": "{:.3f}", "CAGR post": "{:.3f}"},370 note="Primary counts and shares use the primary category; the multi-label ratio is the post-period count of all assignments to the category divided by the baseline count (periods split at the reference date). CAGR base: 2018 to 2022 (four years); CAGR post: 2023 to 2025 (two years), both on primary counts of complete calendar years (equation~\\eqref{eq:cagr}). Sorted by post-period share.")371 # --- AI categories: share with bootstrap CI (H2) ---372 p = f"{B}/category_share_ci_yearly.csv"373 if os.path.exists(p):374 s = pd.read_csv(p); ai = [k for k, a in area.items() if a == "ai_ml"]; rows = []375 for k in ai:376 r = {"Category": names[k]}377 for yv in (2018, 2022, 2025):378 z = s[(s.category == k) & (s.year == yv)]379 r[str(yv)] = f"{100 * float(z.share.iloc[0]):.2f} [{100 * float(z.ci_low.iloc[0]):.2f}, {100 * float(z.ci_high.iloc[0]):.2f}]" if len(z) else ""380 rows.append(r)381 r = {"Category": "AI & ML area (sum)"}382 for yv in (2018, 2022, 2025):383 z = s[(s.category.isin(ai)) & (s.year == yv)]; r[str(yv)] = f"{100 * float(z.share.sum()):.2f}" if len(z) else ""384 rows.append(r)385 write("tab_p9_ai_shares", pd.DataFrame(rows), "Share of primary-category assignments held by the AI and machine-learning categories in 2018, 2022 and 2025 (per cent, bootstrap 95\\% intervals).", "tab:p9-ai-shares", [p],386 note="Shares are of the year's works with a primary category; intervals from 500 multinomial resamples of the works (seed 44). The area row is the sum of the category shares (no interval). Categories 1--8 and 38 of the mandate.")387 # --- ITS total: events, robustness ---388 p = f"{E}/its_results.json"389 if os.path.exists(p):390 J = json.load(open(p)); S = J["series"]; T = S["total"]; rows = []391 for key, lab in _P9_EVENTS:392 e = T.get("its_" + key)393 if e: rows.append({"Event (month)": lab, "Pre-slope (SE)": f"{e['pre_slope']:.4f} ({e['pre_slope_se']:.4f})", "Level change (SE)": f"{e['level_change']:+.3f} ({e['level_se']:.3f})", "HAC p (level)": e["level_p"], "Slope change (SE)": f"{e['slope_change']:+.4f} ({e['slope_se']:.4f})", "HAC p (slope)": e["slope_p"], "$R^2$": e["r2"]})394 write("tab_p9_its_total_events", pd.DataFrame(rows), "Interrupted time series of the total monthly series at the reference date and at four alternative event dates (log counts, month-of-year dummies, Newey--West standard errors).", "tab:p9-its-total-events", [p],395 fmt={"HAC p (level)": "{:.3f}", "HAC p (slope)": "{:.3g}", "$R^2$": "{:.3f}"}, note="Equation~\\eqref{eq:its}; each event is coded as the first full month after the public release. Slopes are monthly log growth rates. A HAC $p$ printed as 0.000 is below 0.0005.")396 rows = [("Observations (months), first to last complete month", f"{T['n_months']} ({J['first']} to {J['last_complete']})"),397 ("Placebo rank of the level $t$-statistic (all candidate months)", f"rank {T['placebo_chatgpt']['level_t_rank']} of {T['placebo_chatgpt']['n_placebo']}, placebo $p$ = {T['placebo_chatgpt']['level_t_placebo_p']:.3f}"),398 ("Placebo rank of the slope $t$-statistic (all candidate months)", f"rank {T['placebo_chatgpt']['slope_t_rank']} of {T['placebo_chatgpt']['n_placebo']}, placebo $p$ = {T['placebo_chatgpt']['slope_t_placebo_p']:.3f}"),399 ("Placebo $p$, baseline candidate months only (level; slope)", f"{T['placebo_chatgpt_baseline_only']['level_t_placebo_p']:.3f}; {T['placebo_chatgpt_baseline_only']['slope_t_placebo_p']:.3f} (n = {T['placebo_chatgpt_baseline_only']['n_placebo']}; zero is attainable)"),400 ("Donut ITS, $\\pm$3 months removed: level change (HAC $p$)", f"{T['its_chatgpt_donut']['level_change']:+.3f} ({T['its_chatgpt_donut']['level_p']:.3f}), n = {T['its_chatgpt_donut']['n']}"),401 ("Donut ITS: slope change (HAC $p$)", f"{T['its_chatgpt_donut']['slope_change']:+.4f} ({T['its_chatgpt_donut']['slope_p']:.2g})"),402 ("Bai--Perron break dates, BIC (LWZ)", f"{', '.join(T['bai_perron']['break_dates_bic'])} ({', '.join(T['bai_perron']['break_dates_lwz'])}); m = {T['bai_perron']['m_bic']}, h = {T['bai_perron']['h']}"),403 ("Bai--Perron BIC by number of breaks m = 0, 1, 2, 3", ", ".join(f"{T['bai_perron']['bic_by_m'][k]:.1f}" for k in ("0", "1", "2", "3"))),404 ("PELT changepoints (piecewise-constant mean)", ", ".join(T["pelt"]) or "none"),405 ("BOCPD: max P(run length $\\le$ 3) over 2022-12 to 2023-03; MAP resets", f"{T['bocpd_cp_prob_2022_12_to_2023_03']:.3f}; {', '.join(T['bocpd_resets']) or 'none'}")]406 for lm, v in J.get("sensitivity_last_complete_total", {}).items():407 e = v["its_chatgpt"]; rows.append((f"Last complete month {lm}: level (p); slope (p); Bai--Perron", f"{e['level_change']:+.3f} ({e['level_p']:.3f}); {e['slope_change']:+.4f} ({e['slope_p']:.2g}); {', '.join(v['bai_perron'])}"))408 write("tab_p9_total_robustness", pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["Diagnostic", "Total series"]), "Robustness diagnostics of the structural-change analysis of the total monthly series.", "tab:p9-total-robustness", [p],409 note="Placebo ranks follow equation~\\eqref{eq:placebo}; the baseline-only rank excludes the true event from the candidate set, so a value of zero means that no baseline month yields a larger $t$-statistic. Bai--Perron on the seasonally adjusted log series with trimming $h$; PELT with the $\\ell_2$ cost; BOCPD with hazard 1/60 (Part IV).")410 # categories: slopes411 rows = []; rows2 = []; rows3 = []; rows4 = []412 for sid, v in S.items():413 if sid == "total": continue414 k = sid[4:]; e = v["its_chatgpt"]; pl = v["placebo_chatgpt"]; plb = v["placebo_chatgpt_baseline_only"]; dn = v.get("its_chatgpt_donut", {})415 rows.append({"Category": names.get(k, k), "Works": int(v["total"]), "Pre-slope": e["pre_slope"], "Slope change": e["slope_change"], "SE": e["slope_se"], "HAC p": e["slope_p"], "Placebo p (all)": pl["slope_t_placebo_p"], "Placebo p (base)": plb["slope_t_placebo_p"], "Post slope": e["pre_slope"] + e["slope_change"]})416 rows2.append({"Category": names.get(k, k), "Level change": e["level_change"], "SE": e["level_se"], "HAC p": e["level_p"], "Placebo p (all)": pl["level_t_placebo_p"], "Placebo p (base)": plb["level_t_placebo_p"], "Donut level": dn.get("level_change", float("nan")), "Donut p": dn.get("level_p", float("nan")), "BOCPD P": v["bocpd_cp_prob_2022_12_to_2023_03"]})417 bp = v["bai_perron"]; inw = any("2022-10-01" <= d <= "2023-06-01" for d in bp["break_dates_bic"]); pin = any("2022-10" <= d <= "2023-06" for d in v["pelt"])418 rows3.append({"Category": names.get(k, k), "Bai--Perron (BIC)": ", ".join(d[:7] for d in bp["break_dates_bic"]) or "none", "Bai--Perron (LWZ)": ", ".join(d[:7] for d in bp["break_dates_lwz"]) or "none", "PELT": ", ".join(v["pelt"]) or "none", "BOCPD resets": ", ".join(v["bocpd_resets"]) or "none", "BIC break in window": "yes" if inw else "no", "PELT in window": "yes" if pin else "no"})419 r4 = {"Category": names.get(k, k)}420 for key, lab in _P9_EVENTS:421 ev = v.get("its_" + key); r4[lab.split(" (")[0]] = _p9_estp(ev["level_change"], ev["level_p"]) if ev else ""422 rows4.append(r4)423 t = pd.DataFrame(rows).sort_values("Slope change", ascending=False)424 write("tab_p9_its_slopes", t, "ITS slope change at December 2022 by category: pre-period slope, change, HAC and placebo $p$-values, and implied post-period slope (monthly log growth).", "tab:p9-its-slopes", [p], longtable=True,425 fmt={"Pre-slope": "{:.4f}", "Slope change": "{:+.4f}", "SE": "{:.4f}", "HAC p": "{:.3g}", "Placebo p (all)": "{:.3f}", "Placebo p (base)": "{:.3f}", "Post slope": "{:.4f}"},426 note="Multi-label monthly series of month-precision works (Part IV); Works: series total over the window. Placebo $p$ (all): rank of the slope $t$-statistic among all candidate event months; (base): among baseline months only, where zero is attainable. Sorted by slope change.")427 t = pd.DataFrame(rows2).sort_values("Category")428 write("tab_p9_its_levels", t, "ITS level change at December 2022 by category: full-sample and donut estimates, HAC and placebo $p$-values, and the BOCPD change probability over December 2022 to March 2023.", "tab:p9-its-levels", [p], longtable=True,429 fmt={"Level change": "{:+.3f}", "SE": "{:.3f}", "HAC p": "{:.3f}", "Placebo p (all)": "{:.3f}", "Placebo p (base)": "{:.3f}", "Donut level": "{:+.3f}", "Donut p": "{:.3f}", "BOCPD P": "{:.3f}"},430 note="Donut: the event month and three months on each side removed. BOCPD P: maximum posterior probability that a changepoint occurred within the last four months, taken over December 2022 to March 2023.")431 write("tab_p9_unknown_breaks", pd.DataFrame(rows3).sort_values("Category"), "Data-driven break and changepoint dates by category, and whether any falls in the H3 window (October 2022 to June 2023).", "tab:p9-unknown-breaks", [p], longtable=True,432 note="Bai--Perron on the seasonally adjusted log series with trimming $h = 15$ months (no break possible after April 2025); PELT with the $\\ell_2$ cost and a six-month minimum segment; BOCPD resets as defined in Part IV. The window test is the one pre-specified in H3; Bai--Perron dates carry no $p$-value.")433 write("tab_p9_altdates", pd.DataFrame(rows4).sort_values("Category"), "ITS level change (HAC $p$) by category at the five pre-specified event dates.", "tab:p9-altdates", [p], longtable=True,434 note="Each column re-estimates equation~\\eqref{eq:its} with the event at the stated month; entries are the log level change with the HAC $p$-value in parentheses. The five estimates of a row are not independent: they are the same series with the break moved.")435 # H3 focus table436 h3 = [("llm", "break expected"), ("generative_ai", "break expected"), ("ai_agents", "break expected"), ("ai_safety", "break expected"), ("formal_verification", "no break expected"), ("computational_complexity", "no break expected"), ("operating_systems", "no break expected"), ("computer_architecture", "no break expected")]437 rows = []438 for k, pred in h3:439 v = S.get("cat_" + k)440 if not v: continue441 bp = v["bai_perron"]; e = v["its_chatgpt"]442 rows.append({"Category": names[k], "H3 prediction": pred, "Bai--Perron (BIC)": ", ".join(d[:7] for d in bp["break_dates_bic"]) or "none", "PELT": ", ".join(v["pelt"]) or "none", "In window": "yes" if any("2022-10-01" <= d <= "2023-06-01" for d in bp["break_dates_bic"]) else "no",443 "Level change (p)": _p9_estp(e["level_change"], e["level_p"]), "Slope change (p)": f"{e['slope_change']:+.4f} ({e['slope_p']:.2g})", "Placebo p (slope)": v["placebo_chatgpt"]["slope_t_placebo_p"], "BOCPD P": v["bocpd_cp_prob_2022_12_to_2023_03"]})444 write("tab_p9_h3", pd.DataFrame(rows), "Hypothesis H3: break dates and ITS estimates for the eight categories named in the protocol.", "tab:p9-h3", [p], fmt={"Placebo p (slope)": "{:.3f}", "BOCPD P": "{:.3f}"},445 note="In window: a Bai--Perron (BIC) break date between October 2022 and June 2023. The protocol predicted a break in that window for the first four categories and none for the last four.")446 # --- cross-area shares, modularity, flows ---447 p = f"{G}/cross_area_share_yearly.csv"448 if os.path.exists(p):449 cs = pd.read_csv(p); piv = cs.pivot(index="citing_year", columns="citing_area", values="share_cross") * 100450 cs["period"] = np.where(cs.citing_year <= 2022, "baseline", "post"); g = cs.groupby(["period", "citing_area"])[["n", "n_cross"]].sum(); w = g.loc["baseline"].n / g.loc["baseline"].n.sum()451 yr = cs.groupby("citing_year")[["n", "n_cross"]].sum(); raw = 100 * yr.n_cross / yr.n452 adj = pd.Series({y: 100 * float((w.reindex(gg.set_index("citing_area").index) * gg.set_index("citing_area").share_cross).sum()) for y, gg in cs.groupby("citing_year")})453 piv["All areas, raw"] = raw; piv["All areas, baseline area weights"] = adj; piv["Internal references (count)"] = yr.n454 t = piv.T.reset_index().rename(columns={"citing_area": "Citing area", "index": "Citing area"}); t.columns = ["Citing area"] + [str(c) for c in t.columns[1:]]455 t["Citing area"] = t["Citing area"].map(lambda a: _P9_AREA_SHORT.get(a, a))456 write("tab_p9_cross_area", t, "Cross-area share of internal references by citing area and citing year (per cent), with the aggregate share and its composition-adjusted counterpart.", "tab:p9-cross-area", [p], fmt={c: "{:,.1f}" for c in t.columns[1:]},457 note="Equation~\\eqref{eq:cross-area}: the share of an area's resolved internal references whose cited work has a primary category in another area. The composition-adjusted aggregate fixes each area's weight at its 2018--2022 share of internal references, so that it moves only when the areas' own cross-area rates move. The last row is the number of internal references with both ends classified. 2026 is incomplete.")458 p = f"{G}/modularity_yearly.csv"459 if os.path.exists(p):460 d = pd.read_csv(p); t = pd.DataFrame({"Year": d.year.astype(str), "Internal citations": d.edges.astype(int), "Q (categories)": d.Q_categories, "Q (areas)": d.Q_areas, "Self-share (%)": 100 * d.self_share})461 write("tab_p9_modularity", t, "Modularity of the yearly category citation-flow network at the category and area partitions, and the within-category self-share of citations.", "tab:p9-modularity", [p], fmt={"Q (categories)": "{:.4f}", "Q (areas)": "{:.4f}", "Self-share (%)": "{:.2f}"},462 note="Equation~\\eqref{eq:modularity} at the fixed partitions; the citation counts are internal references of works of the citing year whose two ends have a primary category. The 2018 network is small because few cited works of 2018 or later existed; 2026 is incomplete.")463 p = f"{G}/area_flows_yearly.csv"464 if os.path.exists(p):465 af = pd.read_csv(p); A = [a for a in _P9_AREA_SHORT if a in set(af.citing_area)]466 def mat(mask):467 mm = af[mask].pivot_table(index="citing_area", columns="cited_area", values="n", aggfunc="sum", fill_value=0).reindex(index=A, columns=A).fillna(0); return mm.div(mm.sum(1), axis=0) * 100468 base = mat(af.citing_year <= 2022); post = mat(af.citing_year >= 2023); diff = (post - base)469 t = diff.copy(); t.index = [_P9_AREA_SHORT[a] for a in t.index]; t.columns = [_P9_AREA_SHORT[a] for a in t.columns]; t = t.reset_index().rename(columns={"index": "Citing area"})470 write("tab_p9_area_flow_change", t, "Change in the area citation-flow matrix between 2018--2022 and 2023--2026: post-period row share minus baseline row share (percentage points).", "tab:p9-area-flow-change", [p], fmt={c: "{:+.1f}" for c in t.columns[1:]},471 note="Rows: citing area; columns: cited area; row shares of internal references with both ends classified, split by citing calendar year (2022 entirely in the first span). Figure~\\ref{fig:p9-area-flow-matrix} shows the two underlying matrices.")472 p = f"{G}/category_cooccurrence_yearly.csv"473 if os.path.exists(p):474 co = pd.read_csv(p); co["period"] = np.where(co.year <= 2022, "baseline", "post"); rows = []475 tb = co[co.period == "baseline"].groupby(["cat_a", "cat_b"]).n.sum().sort_values(ascending=False).head(15); tp = co[co.period == "post"].groupby(["cat_a", "cat_b"]).n.sum().sort_values(ascending=False).head(15)476 for i in range(15):477 rows.append({"Rank": i + 1, "Pair, 2018--2022": f"{names.get(tb.index[i][0], tb.index[i][0])} / {names.get(tb.index[i][1], tb.index[i][1])}", "Works": int(tb.iloc[i]), "Pair, 2023--2026": f"{names.get(tp.index[i][0], tp.index[i][0])} / {names.get(tp.index[i][1], tp.index[i][1])}", "Works ": int(tp.iloc[i])})478 write("tab_p9_cooccurrence", pd.DataFrame(rows), "The fifteen most frequent co-classification pairs (works carrying both categories in their label set), 2018--2022 and 2023--2026.", "tab:p9-cooccurrence", [p],479 note="Counts of works with both labels, summed over the calendar years of each span (2022 in the first); the post span is incomplete. Co-classification depends on abstract availability and vocabulary (Part IV), so the pairs describe the classifier's view of the literature.")480 ll = co[(co.cat_a == "llm") | (co.cat_b == "llm")].copy(); ll["partner"] = np.where(ll.cat_a == "llm", ll.cat_b, ll.cat_a)481 g = ll.groupby(["partner", "period"]).n.sum().unstack().fillna(0); g = g.sort_values("post", ascending=False).head(15)482 t = pd.DataFrame({"Partner category": [names.get(k, k) for k in g.index], "Works, 2018--2022": g.baseline.astype(int).values, "Works, 2023--2026": g.post.astype(int).values, "Ratio": (g.post / g.baseline.replace(0, np.nan)).values})483 write("tab_p9_llm_partners", t, "Categories most often co-assigned with Large Language Models, by span.", "tab:p9-llm-partners", [p], fmt={"Ratio": "{:.2f}"}, note="Works carrying both the LLM label and the partner label; spans split by calendar year; the second span is incomplete.")484 # --- openness by year ---485 p = f"{B}/volume_yearly.csv"486 if os.path.exists(p):487 v = pd.read_csv(p); v = v[v.year <= 2026]488 t = pd.DataFrame({"Year": v.year.astype(str), "Works": v.n, "DBLP (%)": 100 * v.n_dblp / v.n, "arXiv-linked (%)": 100 * v.n_arxiv / v.n, "Preprint type (%)": 100 * v.n_preprint / v.n, "Open access (%)": 100 * v.n_oa / v.n, "Abstract (%)": 100 * v.n_abstract / v.n, "Conference (%)": 100 * v.n_conf / v.n, "Article (%)": 100 * v.n_article / v.n, "Mean refs.": v.mean_refs})489 write("tab_p9_openness", t, "Openness and metadata indicators by publication year: arXiv linkage, preprint share, open access, abstract availability and document type (per cent of eligible works).", "tab:p9-openness", [p], fmt={c: "{:.1f}" for c in t.columns[2:]},490 note="arXiv-linked: the work is linked to an arXiv e-print (any version); preprint type: the surviving record's OpenAlex type is preprint; open access: any OA location in OpenAlex. Mean refs.: declared references per work, which falls in recent years because references are indexed with a lag. 2026 is incomplete.")491 # --- landmarks ---492 p = f"{R}/literature_synthesis/landmarks/selection_report.json"493 if os.path.exists(p):494 Sj = json.load(open(p)); rows = [{"Group": "Area", "Level": area_names.get(k, k), "Landmarks": v} for k, v in Sj["by_area"].items()] + [{"Group": "Year", "Level": k, "Landmarks": v} for k, v in sorted(Sj["by_year_landmarks"].items())]495 write("tab_p9_landmarks", pd.DataFrame(rows), "Composition of the landmark set by area and by publication year.", "tab:p9-landmarks", [p], note="Selection by field-normalised impact within category and year with per-area quotas (Part IV); the specialist review of the set (checkpoint H-3) is pending, so the composition is reported without any assessment of the works.")496 # --- emerging: setup and AUC by cutoff ---497 fs = {h: f"{X}/metrics_h{h}.json" for h in (12, 24)}498 if all(os.path.exists(f) for f in fs.values()):499 M = {h: json.load(open(f)) for h, f in fs.items()}; rows = []500 for h in (12, 24):501 m = M[h]; rows.append({"Horizon (months)": str(h), "Training cutoffs": f"{m['train_cutoffs'][0]} to {m['train_cutoffs'][-1]} ({len(m['train_cutoffs'])})", "Test cutoffs": f"{m['test_cutoffs'][0]} to {m['test_cutoffs'][-1]} ({len(m['test_cutoffs'])})", "Train rows": m["n_train"], "Test rows": m["n_test"], "Positive rate, train": m["pos_rate_train"], "Positive rate, test": m["pos_rate_test"]})502 write("tab_p9_emerging_setup", pd.DataFrame(rows), "Out-of-time evaluation design of the emerging-topic detector: cutoffs, panel sizes and positive rates.", "tab:p9-emerging-setup", list(fs.values()), fmt={"Positive rate, train": "{:.4f}", "Positive rate, test": "{:.4f}"},503 note="Rows are eligible (topic, cutoff) pairs; the label of equation~\\eqref{eq:label} requires top-decile future growth and a doubling of volume, so the positive rate is below ten per cent.")504 cut = sorted(set(M[12]["auc_by_cutoff"]) | set(M[24]["auc_by_cutoff"])); rows = []505 for c in cut:506 r = {"Test cutoff": c}507 for h in (12, 24):508 a = M[h]["auc_by_cutoff"].get(c, {})509 for mdl, lab in (("zscore_baseline", "z-score"), ("logistic", "logistic"), ("gbm", "GBM")): r[f"h{h}: {lab}"] = a.get(mdl, float("nan"))510 rows.append(r)511 t = pd.DataFrame(rows); write("tab_p9_emerging_cutoffs", t, "AUC of the three detectors at each test cutoff, by horizon.", "tab:p9-emerging-cutoffs", list(fs.values()), fmt={c: "{:.3f}" for c in t.columns[1:]},512 note="Within-cutoff AUC on the eligible topics of the cutoff; blank where the label window of the cutoff extends beyond the panel. Pooled values are in Tables~\\ref{tab:emerging_h12} and~\\ref{tab:emerging_h24}.")513514515# ---------------- Part V (The Artificial Intelligence Transformation): tables appended by Agent E, 2026-11-03 ----------------516AI_CATS = ["llm", "foundation_models", "multimodal_ai", "generative_ai", "ai_agents", "reinforcement_learning", "ml_theory", "deep_learning_architectures", "ai_safety"]517AI_NAMES = {"llm": "Large language models", "foundation_models": "Foundation models", "multimodal_ai": "Multimodal AI", "generative_ai": "Generative AI", "ai_agents": "AI agents", "reinforcement_learning": "Reinforcement learning", "ml_theory": "ML theory", "deep_learning_architectures": "DL architectures", "ai_safety": "AI safety and alignment"}518519520def tables_part05():521 B = f"{R}/results/bibliometrics"; G = f"{R}/results/graph"; E = f"{R}/results/econometrics"; S = f"{R}/literature_synthesis"522 p = f"{B}/cagr_by_category.csv"523 if os.path.exists(p):524 d = pd.read_csv(p).drop_duplicates("category"); d = d[d.category.isin(AI_CATS)].set_index("category").loc[AI_CATS].reset_index()525 t = pd.DataFrame({"Category": d.category.map(AI_NAMES), "2018": d.n_2018, "2022": d.n_2022, "2023": d.n_2023, "2025": d.n_2025, "CAGR 2018--22": d.cagr_baseline, "CAGR 2023--25": d.cagr_post, "Share 2018 (%)": 100 * d.share_2018, "Share 2022 (%)": 100 * d.share_2022, "Share 2025 (%)": 100 * d.share_2025})526 write("tab_ai_growth", t, "Volume, compound annual growth and corpus share of the nine AI categories, baseline (2018--2022) and post (2023--2025) periods.", "tab:ai_growth", [p], fmt={"CAGR 2018--22": "{:.3f}", "CAGR 2023--25": "{:.3f}", "Share 2018 (%)": "{:.2f}", "Share 2022 (%)": "{:.2f}", "Share 2025 (%)": "{:.2f}"},527 note="Counts are multi-label (a work counts in every category it is assigned to), restricted to the eligible mapping corpus. CAGR as in Part IV, eq.~\\ref{eq:cagr}; the post-period CAGR uses 2023 and 2025 end points. Shares are over all eligible works of the year.")528 p = f"{G}/category_counts_yearly.csv"529 if os.path.exists(p):530 d = pd.read_csv(p); d = d[d.category_id.isin(AI_CATS) & (d.year <= 2026)].groupby(["category_id", "year"]).n_multilabel.sum().unstack("year").loc[AI_CATS]531 d.columns = [str(c) for c in d.columns]; d = d.reset_index(); d["category_id"] = d.category_id.map(AI_NAMES); d = d.rename(columns={"category_id": "Category"})532 write("tab_ai_counts", d, "Yearly multi-label counts of the nine AI categories (all period rows summed; 2026 incomplete).", "tab:ai_counts", [p], longtable=False, note="The source file splits each year into period rows (baseline / pre / post relative to 30 November 2022); they are summed here. 2026 covers publications dated up to the snapshot of 14 October 2026.")533 p = f"{E}/breaks.csv"534 if os.path.exists(p):535 d = pd.read_csv(p); d = d[d.series.isin(["cat_" + c for c in AI_CATS])].set_index("series").loc[["cat_" + c for c in AI_CATS]].reset_index()536 t = pd.DataFrame({"Category": d.series.str[4:].map(AI_NAMES), "Level 2022-12": d.chatgpt_level, "p": d.chatgpt_level_p, "Slope 2022-12": d.chatgpt_slope, "p ": d.chatgpt_slope_p, "Level 2023-04": d.gpt4_level, "p ": d.gpt4_level_p, "Level 2024-09": d.o1_level, "p ": d.o1_level_p, "Placebo p (level)": d.placebo_level_p, "Placebo p (slope)": d.placebo_slope_p, "Bai--Perron (BIC)": d.bp_breaks_bic.fillna("").astype(str).str.replace(";", "; "), "PELT": d.pelt.fillna("").astype(str).str.replace(";", "; ")})537 write("tab_ai_breaks", t, "Structural-change estimates for the nine AI categories: interrupted-time-series level and slope changes at 2022-12 (ChatGPT), level changes at the alternative event dates 2023-04 (GPT-4) and 2024-09 (o1), placebo p-values, and Bai--Perron and PELT break dates.", "tab:ai_breaks", [p], fmt={c: "{:.3f}" for c in ["Level 2022-12", "p", "Slope 2022-12", "p ", "Level 2023-04", "p ", "Level 2024-09", "p ", "Placebo p (level)", "Placebo p (slope)"]}, longtable=True,538 note="Monthly log counts, seasonally adjusted; HAC p-values (Part IV, Section~\\ref{sec:m-its}). Level changes are in log points of the monthly count; slope changes in log points per month. Placebo p-values are the share of placebo event dates (Section~\\ref{sec:m-placebo}) whose t-statistic exceeds the true one. Bai--Perron dates: breaks selected by BIC with trimming h=15 months; PELT: penalised exact linear-time change points. The categories are multi-label, so the series overlap.")539 p = f"{G}/category_flows_yearly.csv"540 if os.path.exists(p):541 d = pd.read_csv(p); cols = ["self", "llm", "nlp", "computer_vision", "hci", "robotics", "software_engineering", "ai_safety"]; rows = []542 for c in AI_CATS:543 for y in (2019, 2022, 2025):544 s = d[(d.citing_cat == c) & (d.citing_year == y)].set_index("cited_cat").row_share545 rows.append({"Category": AI_NAMES[c], "Year": str(y), "Self": 100 * s.get(c, 0), "LLM": 100 * s.get("llm", 0), "NLP": 100 * s.get("nlp", 0), "Vision": 100 * s.get("computer_vision", 0), "HCI": 100 * s.get("hci", 0), "Robotics": 100 * s.get("robotics", 0), "Softw. eng.": 100 * s.get("software_engineering", 0), "AI safety": 100 * s.get("ai_safety", 0)})546 t = pd.DataFrame(rows); write("tab_ai_flows", t, "Destination of the in-corpus references of the nine AI categories in 2019, 2022 and 2025 (per cent of in-corpus references of the citing category).", "tab:ai_flows", [p], fmt={c: "{:.1f}" for c in ["Self", "LLM", "NLP", "Vision", "HCI", "Robotics", "Softw. eng.", "AI safety"]}, longtable=True,547 note="Row shares of category-to-category citation flows (Part IV, eq.~\\ref{eq:flow}); references outside the eligible corpus are excluded. `Self' is the share going to the citing category itself (for LLM, the Self and LLM columns coincide). Categories are multi-label, so a reference can count under several destination categories.")548 p = f"{S}/agent_E/contributions.csv"549 if os.path.exists(p):550 d = pd.read_csv(p, dtype={"openalex_id": str})551 piv = pd.crosstab(d.primary_category.map(AI_NAMES), d.data_quality_flag).loc[[AI_NAMES[c] for c in AI_CATS]]552 piv["total"] = piv.sum(axis=1); piv = piv.reset_index().rename(columns={"primary_category": "Primary category"})553 write("tab_ai_landmark_flags", piv, "Specialist screening of the 234 AI/ML landmark candidates: records by primary category and data-quality flag.", "tab:ai_landmark_flags", [p], note="Flags assigned by Agent E from title, venue, identifiers, citation counts and (where available) the abstract: identifier\\_mismatch = title/abstract do not correspond to the arXiv identifier or citation count attached to the record; abstract\\_mismatch = stored abstract belongs to another work; year\\_implausible = OpenAlex year contradicts the first publication; normalisation\\_artefact = very small c36 with very large NCS36; off\\_scope = not an AI contribution; no\\_abstract = metadata only. `ok' records were judged from the abstract.")554 ct = pd.crosstab(d.primary_category.map(AI_NAMES), d.contribution_type).loc[[AI_NAMES[c] for c in AI_CATS]]; ct["total"] = ct.sum(axis=1); ct = ct.reset_index().rename(columns={"primary_category": "Primary category"})555 write("tab_ai_contribution_types", ct, "Contribution type of the 234 AI/ML landmark candidates by primary category (specialist judgement from abstract or metadata).", "tab:ai_contribution_types", [p], note="Types follow CLAUDE.md~\\S1 item 6: theory, method, empirical, benchmark, engineering, survey. Judged from the abstract for 190 records and from title/venue/type for 44 records without abstract (column judged\\_from of the source file).")556 f = d[["openalex_id", "year", "type", "primary_category", "c36", "ncs36", "contribution_type", "data_quality_flag"]].copy(); f["primary_category"] = f.primary_category.map(AI_NAMES); f["c36"] = f.c36.astype(int); f["year"] = f.year.astype(str)557 f.columns = ["OpenAlex id", "Year", "Type", "Category", "c36", "NCS36", "Contribution", "Flag"]558 write("tab_ai_landmarks", f, "The 234 AI/ML landmark candidates with the specialist's contribution type and data-quality flag (titles in literature_synthesis/agent_E/contributions.csv).", "tab:ai_landmarks", [p], fmt={"NCS36": "{:.1f}"}, longtable=True, note="Selection score and windows as in Part IV (Section~\\ref{sec:m-score}); c36 and NCS36 as stored in the landmark file.")559560561if __name__ == "__main__":562 main()563