WP44: Part VII wrapper, figure batch 5 (category ITS panels, LLM co-classification)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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figures/FIGURES.json
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@@ -135,5 +135,20 @@ | ||
| 135 | 135 | "sources": [ |
| 136 | 136 | "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp44_uqo/results/emerging/known_set_monthly.csv" |
| 137 | 137 | ] |
| 138 | + }, | |
| 139 | + { | |
| 140 | + "file": "fig_category_its_panels", | |
| 141 | + "caption": "Monthly series and interrupted-time-series fits for every category.", | |
| 142 | + "sources": [ | |
| 143 | + "results/econometrics/fit_cat_*.csv" | |
| 144 | + ] | |
| 145 | + }, | |
| 146 | + { | |
| 147 | + "file": "fig_llm_cooccurrence", | |
| 148 | + "caption": "Share of each category's multi-label works that also carry the LLM category, by year.", | |
| 149 | + "sources": [ | |
| 150 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp44_uqo/results/graph/category_cooccurrence_yearly.csv", | |
| 151 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp44_uqo/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv" | |
| 152 | + ] | |
| 138 | 153 | } |
| 139 | 154 | ] |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
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figures/make_figures.py
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@@ -89,7 +89,7 @@ def fig_collab(R, out): | ||
| 89 | 89 | |
| 90 | 90 | def main(): |
| 91 | 91 | ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(); ap.add_argument("--root", required=True); a = ap.parse_args(); out = f"{a.root}/figures"; os.makedirs(out, exist_ok=True) |
| 92 | − for f in (fig_prisma, fig_yearly_volume, fig_monthly, fig_types_sources, fig_collab) + _BATCH2 + _BATCH3 + _BATCH4: | |
| 92 | + for f in (fig_prisma, fig_yearly_volume, fig_monthly, fig_types_sources, fig_collab) + _BATCH2 + _BATCH3 + _BATCH4 + _BATCH5: | |
| 93 | 93 | try: |
| 94 | 94 | f(a.root, out); print("ok", f.__name__) |
| 95 | 95 | except Exception as e: |
@@ -333,5 +333,45 @@ def fig_known_set(R, out): | ||
| 333 | 333 | _BATCH4 = (fig_category_growth, fig_category_shares, fig_breaks_heatmap, fig_flow_matrix, fig_cross_area, fig_emerging, fig_known_set) |
| 334 | 334 | |
| 335 | 335 | |
| 336 | + | |
| 337 | + | |
| 338 | +# ---------------- batch 5: category monthly series with ITS fits; co-classification with LLM-related categories ---------------- | |
| 339 | +def fig_category_its_panels(R, out): | |
| 340 | + import glob as _g | |
| 341 | + names, areas = _cat_names(R); files = sorted(_g.glob(f"{R}/results/econometrics/fit_cat_*.csv")) | |
| 342 | + if not files: | |
| 343 | + return | |
| 344 | + files = [f for f in files if os.path.basename(f)[8:-4] in names]; n = len(files); cols = 4; rows = int(np.ceil(n / cols)) | |
| 345 | + fig, axes = plt.subplots(rows, cols, figsize=(7.6, 1.55 * rows), sharex=True); axes = np.atleast_2d(axes) | |
| 346 | + for ax, f in zip(axes.ravel(), files): | |
| 347 | + d = pd.read_csv(f); x = pd.to_datetime(d.month + "-01"); cid = os.path.basename(f)[8:-4] | |
| 348 | + ax.plot(x, d.y / 1e3, color=style.CATEGORICAL[0], lw=0.8); ax.plot(x, d.fitted / 1e3, color=style.CATEGORICAL[1], lw=1.1) | |
| 349 | + ax.axvline(pd.Timestamp("2022-11-30"), color=style.EVENT, lw=0.6, ls="--"); ax.set_title(names.get(cid, cid), fontsize=6.5, loc="left"); ax.tick_params(labelsize=5.5); ax.grid(True) | |
| 350 | + for ax in axes.ravel()[n:]: | |
| 351 | + ax.axis("off") | |
| 352 | + fig.suptitle("Monthly works per category (thousands; month-precision records) with ITS fits at 2022-12", fontsize=8, x=0.02, ha="left") | |
| 353 | + style.save(fig, f"{out}/fig_category_its_panels.pdf"); reg("fig_category_its_panels", "Monthly series and interrupted-time-series fits for every category.", ["results/econometrics/fit_cat_*.csv"]) | |
| 354 | + | |
| 355 | + | |
| 356 | +def fig_llm_cooccurrence(R, out): | |
| 357 | + p = f"{R}/results/graph/category_cooccurrence_yearly.csv"; q = f"{R}/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv" | |
| 358 | + if not (os.path.exists(p) and os.path.exists(q)): | |
| 359 | + return | |
| 360 | + names, areas = _cat_names(R); co = pd.read_csv(p); cc = pd.read_csv(q); tot = cc.groupby(["year", "category_id"]).n_multilabel.sum() | |
| 361 | + fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(6.8, 3.6)); shown = 0 | |
| 362 | + for target in ("llm", "ai_agents", "generative_ai"): | |
| 363 | + sub = co[(co.cat_a == target) | (co.cat_b == target)].copy(); sub["other"] = np.where(sub.cat_a == target, sub.cat_b, sub.cat_a) | |
| 364 | + for other in ("cybersecurity", "software_engineering", "hci", "information_retrieval", "robotics", "computational_biology", "computer_vision"): | |
| 365 | + s = sub[sub.other == other].groupby("year").n.sum(); base = tot.xs(other, level=1).reindex(s.index) | |
| 366 | + share = (s / base * 100).dropna(); share = share[(share.index >= 2018) & (share.index <= 2025)] | |
| 367 | + if target == "llm" and len(share): | |
| 368 | + ax.plot(share.index, share.values, marker="o", ms=3, color=style.CATEGORICAL[shown % 8], label=names.get(other, other), lw=1.1); shown += 1 | |
| 369 | + ax.set_ylabel("Share of the category's works also classified as LLM (%)"); ax.set_title("Co-classification with Large Language Models, by category", loc="left"); ax.legend(fontsize=6.5, ncol=2) | |
| 370 | + style.save(fig, f"{out}/fig_llm_cooccurrence.pdf"); reg("fig_llm_cooccurrence", "Share of each category's multi-label works that also carry the LLM category, by year.", [p, q]) | |
| 371 | + | |
| 372 | + | |
| 373 | +_BATCH5 = (fig_category_its_panels, fig_llm_cooccurrence) | |
| 374 | + | |
| 375 | + | |
| 336 | 376 | if __name__ == "__main__": |
| 337 | 377 | main() |
modified
literature_synthesis/agent_E/claims.csv
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@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ E-07,Post-period CAGR (2023–2025) versus baseline (2018–2022): LLM 1.085 vs | ||
| 9 | 9 | E-08,The LLM category's share of eligible works rose from 0.33 % in 2018 to 5.06 % in 2025.,established,corpus_statistic,,,"results/bibliometrics/cagr_by_category.csv (share_2018, share_2025); tab_ai_growth",0.95,machine-verified, |
| 10 | 10 | E-09,For the LLM series the ITS at 2022-12 gives a level change of 0.106 (HAC p 0.075) and a slope change of 0.034 per month (p ~1e-60); placebo p 0.938 (level) and 0.200 (slope); Bai–Perron selects one break at 2022-07; PELT one change point at 2023-10.,established,corpus_statistic,,,results/econometrics/breaks.csv row cat_llm; its_results.json series.cat_llm; macros ItsSeriesCatLlm*; tab_ai_breaks,0.95,machine-verified, |
| 11 | 11 | E-10,"Multimodal, generative AI, agents, RL, ML theory and AI safety show significant positive slope changes at 2022-12 with no positive level jump (agents, RL and AI safety have negative level changes); DL architectures shows no significant slope change (−0.002, p 0.136).",established,corpus_statistic,,,results/econometrics/breaks.csv rows cat_*; tab_ai_breaks,0.95,machine-verified, |
| 12 | −E-11,"Level effects at the GPT-3 (2020-06) and DALL-E 2 (2022-05) event dates are negative for all nine AI categories, while those at GPT-4 (2023-04) and o1 (2024-09) are positive and significant for LLM, multimodal and generative AI.",established,corpus_statistic,,,"results/econometrics/breaks.csv (gpt3_level, dalle2_level, gpt4_level, o1_level and p columns); tab_ai_altdates",0.9,machine-verified,Each alternative date is a separate ITS fit. | |
| 12 | +E-11,"Level effects at the GPT-3 (2020-06) and DALL-E 2 (2022-05) event dates are negative for all nine AI categories, while those at GPT-4 (2023-04) and o1 (2024-10) are positive and significant for LLM, multimodal and generative AI.",established,corpus_statistic,,,"results/econometrics/breaks.csv (gpt3_level, dalle2_level, gpt4_level, o1_level and p columns); tab_ai_altdates",0.9,machine-verified,Each alternative date is a separate ITS fit. | |
| 13 | 13 | E-12,The post-2022 acceleration of AI publication is a trend change already under way in mid-2022 that steepened in 2023–2024; the monthly series cannot attribute it to a single product release.,established,corpus_statistic,,,"results/econometrics/breaks.csv; its_results.json (placebo, bai_perron, pelt)",0.85,machine-verified,Interpretive statement about the estimates; no causal claim. |
| 14 | 14 | E-13,"LLM works directed 69.6 % of in-corpus references to NLP in 2019 and 68.6 % in 2022, but 34.2 % in 2025, when 28.4 % went to the LLM category itself, 4.3 % to HCI and 3.4 % to software engineering.",established,corpus_statistic,,,results/graph/category_flows_yearly.csv (citing_cat llm); tab_ai_flows,0.95,machine-verified, |
| 15 | 15 | E-14,Generative-AI references to computer vision fell from 57.9 % (2022) to 33.8 % (2025) while references to LLM rose to 13.7 % and to HCI to 6.6 %; AI-safety references to LLM rose from 0.1 % (2019) to 10.0 % (2025) and to HCI from 9.1 % to 11.5 %.,established,corpus_statistic,,,results/graph/category_flows_yearly.csv; tab_ai_flows,0.95,machine-verified, |
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literature_synthesis/agent_E/review.md
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@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ Date: 2026-11-03. Inputs: `literature_synthesis/landmarks/ai_ml_landmarks.csv` ( | ||
| 12 | 12 | |
| 13 | 13 | *Volume.* The LLM category grows from a primary-category count of a few thousand works in 2018–2022 to tens of thousands in 2025, with a post-period CAGR of 1.085 against 0.189 in the baseline (`cagr_by_category.csv`); generative AI (0.870 vs 0.296), multimodal AI (0.869 vs 0.284), foundation models (0.802 vs 0.661) and AI safety (0.647 vs 0.294) follow; reinforcement learning (0.252 vs 0.208) and ML theory (0.197 vs 0.104) accelerate modestly; DL architectures decelerate slightly (0.155 vs 0.167); AI agents reverse from a negative baseline CAGR (−0.045) to 0.329 [E-07, corpus_statistic]. The LLM share of eligible works rises from 0.33 % (2018) to 5.06 % (2025) [E-08]. Multi-label counts (`tab_ai_counts`) are three to ten times larger than primary counts because the AI categories overlap heavily; the ordering of growth rates is the same under both definitions. |
| 14 | 14 | |
| 15 | −*Structural change.* The interrupted time series at 2022-12 (`breaks.csv`) shows, for the LLM series, a level change of 0.106 log points (HAC p = 0.075) and a slope change of 0.034 log points per month (p ≈ 10⁻⁶⁰), with a placebo p-value of 0.938 for the level and 0.200 for the slope; the Bai–Perron procedure selects a single break at 2022-07 and PELT a change point at 2023-10 [E-09]. The same pattern — no significant level jump at the reference month, a strongly significant slope change, placebo p-values that do not single out December 2022, data-driven breaks before or well after it — holds for multimodal (slope 0.024; break 2022-04) and generative AI (slope 0.019; break 2021-11). AI agents (level −0.210, p = 0.028; slope 0.040), reinforcement learning (level −0.164, p = 0.013) and AI safety (level −0.206, p = 0.002) show *negative* level changes with positive slope changes, i.e. a dip followed by acceleration; DL architectures is the only AI category with no significant slope change (−0.002, p = 0.136) [E-10]. At the alternative event dates the picture is monotone: level effects at the GPT-3 (2020-06) and DALL-E 2 (2022-05) dates are negative for every AI category, while those at the GPT-4 (2023-04) and o1 (2024-09) dates are positive and significant for LLM, multimodal and generative AI (`tab_ai_altdates`) [E-11]. The conservative reading is that the AI literature's acceleration is a trend change that was already under way in mid-2022 and steepened through 2023–2024; the monthly series cannot attribute it to a single product release, and the manuscript must not do so [E-12, established as a statement about the estimates]. | |
| 15 | +*Structural change.* The interrupted time series at 2022-12 (`breaks.csv`) shows, for the LLM series, a level change of 0.106 log points (HAC p = 0.075) and a slope change of 0.034 log points per month (p ≈ 10⁻⁶⁰), with a placebo p-value of 0.938 for the level and 0.200 for the slope; the Bai–Perron procedure selects a single break at 2022-07 and PELT a change point at 2023-10 [E-09]. The same pattern — no significant level jump at the reference month, a strongly significant slope change, placebo p-values that do not single out December 2022, data-driven breaks before or well after it — holds for multimodal (slope 0.024; break 2022-04) and generative AI (slope 0.019; break 2021-11). AI agents (level −0.210, p = 0.028; slope 0.040), reinforcement learning (level −0.164, p = 0.013) and AI safety (level −0.206, p = 0.002) show *negative* level changes with positive slope changes, i.e. a dip followed by acceleration; DL architectures is the only AI category with no significant slope change (−0.002, p = 0.136) [E-10]. At the alternative event dates the picture is monotone: level effects at the GPT-3 (2020-06) and DALL-E 2 (2022-05) dates are negative for every AI category, while those at the GPT-4 (2023-04) and o1 (2024-10) dates are positive and significant for LLM, multimodal and generative AI (`tab_ai_altdates`) [E-11]. The conservative reading is that the AI literature's acceleration is a trend change that was already under way in mid-2022 and steepened through 2023–2024; the monthly series cannot attribute it to a single product release, and the manuscript must not do so [E-12, established as a statement about the estimates]. | |
| 16 | 16 | |
| 17 | 17 | *Knowledge flows.* In-corpus references of LLM works went to NLP for 69.6 % in 2019 and 68.6 % in 2022, but only 34.2 % in 2025, when 28.4 % go to the LLM category itself, 4.3 % to HCI and 3.4 % to software engineering (`category_flows_yearly.csv`) [E-13]. Generative-AI works cited computer vision for 53.6 % (2019) and 57.9 % (2022) of their in-corpus references and 33.8 % in 2025, when 13.7 % go to LLM and 6.6 % to HCI; AI-safety works cite LLM for 10.0 % and HCI for 11.5 % in 2025 against 0.1 % and 9.1 % in 2019 [E-14]. Reinforcement learning moves the other way — its share of references to robotics rises from 14.4 % to 23.1 % and to LLM stays below 1 % — and ML theory and DL architectures are essentially unchanged [E-15]. The LLM category has thus become a citation hub for generative AI, safety and agents while remaining peripheral to RL, theory and architectures; this is the corpus-level answer to RQ5 at the level of categories, and it is consistent with but does not establish the "foundation model" convergence thesis (Bommasani et al. 2021) [E-16, contested]. |
| 18 | 18 | |
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literature_synthesis/agent_G/review.md
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| 1 | +# Agent G — Theory Specialist review (Phase 5), WP44 | |
| 2 | + | |
| 3 | +Scope: algorithms and data structures, computational complexity, programming languages, compilers, formal verification, | |
| 4 | +software engineering (areas `theory` and `software_pl` of `taxonomy/ontology.yaml`). Date: 2026-11-03. | |
| 5 | + | |
| 6 | +Inputs read: `literature_synthesis/landmarks/theory_landmarks.csv` (50 candidates) and `software_pl_landmarks.csv` | |
| 7 | +(100 candidates) with their `*_abstracts.jsonl`; `results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv`, `category_flows_yearly.csv`, | |
| 8 | +`category_cooccurrence_yearly.csv`; `results/bibliometrics/cagr_by_category.csv`; `results/econometrics/breaks.csv` | |
| 9 | +(rows `cat_algorithms`, `cat_computational_complexity`, `cat_programming_languages`, `cat_compilers`, | |
| 10 | +`cat_formal_verification`, `cat_software_engineering`); `manuscript/references.bib`. No knowledge-graph extraction file | |
| 11 | +exists for these areas (`data/processed/graph/extraction/` is absent), so no extracted claim or method node was used. | |
| 12 | +Evidence levels are stated per statement: *metadata* (title, venue, type, year, identifiers), *abstract* (the abstract | |
| 13 | +recorded in OpenAlex), *corpus statistic* (a result file). No full text was read. Companion artefacts: | |
| 14 | +`claims.csv` (G-01…G-24), `contributions.csv` (150 rows, one per candidate, with an audit verdict), `open_problems.csv` | |
| 15 | +(G-P1…G-P10), `verification_lookups_raw.txt` (raw Crossref/DataCite/arXiv/OpenAlex responses), and the generated tables | |
| 16 | +`manuscript/tables/tab_theory_*.tex`. | |
| 17 | + | |
| 18 | +## 1. The candidate landmark set: an audit before a synthesis | |
| 19 | + | |
| 20 | +The protocol selects landmarks as the works with the highest field-normalised 36-month citation score (NCS36) within | |
| 21 | +each primary category, with a floor of fifteen per category, plus the 200 most cited works overall | |
| 22 | +(`literature_synthesis/select_landmarks.py`). For the six categories reviewed here this produced 25 candidates each, | |
| 23 | +150 in total. Before any of them can be discussed as a landmark, the list has to be audited, because its composition is | |
| 24 | +not what the selection rule intends (claim G-01; `contributions.csv`, column `verdict`): | |
| 25 | + | |
| 26 | +| verdict | n | meaning | | |
| 27 | +|---|---|---| | |
| 28 | +| in_scope_research | 29 | a research contribution inside the category's definition | | |
| 29 | +| in_scope_survey | 8 | survey, handbook or competition report inside the category | | |
| 30 | +| misclassified | 33 | outside the category and outside the theory/software scope | | |
| 31 | +| dissertation | 27 | thesis (in scope), selected through the normalisation of small category×year cells | | |
| 32 | +| reprint_misdated | 24 | a classic re-deposited (repository, arXiv, anthology) under a recent record date | | |
| 33 | +| textbook | 22 | textbook, chapter or monograph | | |
| 34 | +| metaheuristic | 6 | metaphor-based metaheuristic optimiser (in scope, contested genre) | | |
| 35 | +| duplicate | 1 | second record of the Handbook of Satisfiability | | |
| 36 | + | |
| 37 | +Four mechanisms explain the composition, and each is a finding about the instrument rather than about the field. | |
| 38 | + | |
| 39 | +*Identifier collisions (claim G-02, machine-verified).* Seven records carry OpenAlex identifiers that, resolved live on | |
| 40 | +2026-11-03, return a different and far more cited work. The record titled "Exploiting Generative AI to Scale up | |
| 41 | +Intelligent Tutoring Systems" (DOI 10.4230/lipics.itp.2023.19, `c36` = 72,130) resolves to *Attention Is All You Need*; | |
| 42 | +its abstract in the corpus is that of *MizAR 60 for Mizar 50* (ITP 2023), which is what the DOI actually denotes. The | |
| 43 | +ECOOP 2025 paper on functionality-specific vulnerabilities (`c36` = 15,245) resolves to the graph-convolutional-network | |
| 44 | +preprint; the SEA 2024 paper on GNN branching for maximum independent set (`c36` = 5,183) resolves to GraphSAGE; the WADS | |
| 45 | +2025 Kd-tree paper (`c36` = 2,355) resolves to the variational-autoencoder preprint; the SAIA 2024 robustness framework | |
| 46 | +resolves to the Madry et al. adversarial-training preprint; the ESEM 2026 record resolves to the Codex paper; the DX | |
| 47 | +2024 answer-set-programming paper resolves to an "Uncertainty-aware RSS" preprint. In every case the recorded `c36` | |
| 48 | +matches the citation count of the other work, so the citation windows attached to these records are not theirs. The | |
| 49 | +mechanism (identifier merge or reuse between the 2026-10-14 snapshot and the live database) is inferred, not observed; | |
| 50 | +the consequence is observed: the four most "cited" candidates of the software_pl area and the first candidate of the | |
| 51 | +theory area owe their rank to another work's citations. | |
| 52 | + | |
| 53 | +*Generic-title chapters.* Book chapters titled "Introduction to Algorithms" (2020, 2021, 2023), "Particle Swarm | |
| 54 | +Optimization" (2019), "Introduction to Software Testing" (2021), "Introduction to Graph Theory" (2023) and Royce's 1970 | |
| 55 | +paper in a 2021 anthology carry hundreds to thousands of citations in their 36-month window. A live lookup confirms the | |
| 56 | +counts (the PSO chapter has 6,321 citations; the 2023 "Introduction to Algorithms" chapter 1,645). The plausible reading | |
| 57 | +is that citations intended for the canonical work (the Cormen et al. textbook, the Kennedy–Eberhart PSO paper, Royce | |
| 58 | +1970) are attributed by the indexer to a same-titled chapter; this is an interpretation, recorded as such (`claims.csv` | |
| 59 | +G-01 notes). | |
| 60 | + | |
| 61 | +*Re-deposited classics (24 records).* Dijkstra's 1959 note appears as a 2022 ACM Books chapter; Turing's 1936 paper as a | |
| 62 | +2021 MIT Press chapter; the 1994 survey of decidability for Petri nets as a 2024 arXiv posting; Lynch and Tuttle's | |
| 63 | +introduction to I/O automata as a 2026 journal article; Cormode's 2003 thesis "Sequence distance embeddings" and the SODA | |
| 64 | +2000 "Communication complexity of document exchange" as 2026 Warwick repository records; three UNSW theses of the L4/seL4 | |
| 65 | +verification lineage as 2022 records; the 2018 NeurIPS paper on online algorithms with predictions as a 2024 arXiv | |
| 66 | +posting. The year field of these records is the deposit year, so they enter the "post" period and inflate its apparent | |
| 67 | +landmark count (`\ThyLandTheoryDatedTwentysix` = 10 of 50 theory candidates are dated 2026). | |
| 68 | + | |
| 69 | +*Lexical misclassification (33 records).* The computational_complexity list contains fifteen works from psychology, | |
| 70 | +management, education and metrology (UTAUT adoption models, PLS-SEM studies of SMEs and students, "Complexity Theory and | |
| 71 | +the Social Sciences", fringe-projection profilometry), captured by the phrase "complexity" (claim G-03). The compilers | |
| 72 | +list contains ten works captured by "just-in-time" (adaptive interventions in mental health), "compiling" (a guide to | |
| 73 | +literature reviews), "polyhedral" (power-system dispatch) and generic education studies (claim G-20). The | |
| 74 | +programming_languages list includes a Nature paper on Calabi–Yau manifolds and a debris-flow hazard study. The | |
| 75 | +dissertation and misclassification problems interact: the NCS36 normalisation divides by the expected citations of a | |
| 76 | +category×year×type cell, and small cells of theses or of non-CS articles produce large normalised scores. | |
| 77 | + | |
| 78 | +What remains after the audit is a set of 29 research works and 8 surveys or reports, listed in | |
| 79 | +`tab_theory_landmarks_discussed.tex`. Sixteen of the 29 are post-period works. They are discussed below by category, | |
| 80 | +together with the verified references of the pre-2022 lineage from `references.bib` and the Part VII-a bibliography | |
| 81 | +(`manuscript/references_part07a.bib`, 65 entries, each resolved by a single live lookup). The major theoretical results of | |
| 82 | +the window are absent from the candidate list (claim G-14) and are brought in through verified records, not through the | |
| 83 | +corpus ranking. | |
| 84 | + | |
| 85 | +## 2. What the corpus statistics say about the six categories | |
| 86 | + | |
| 87 | +*Volume.* Multi-label counts grew in every category after 2022 (Table `tab_theory_counts`): the 2023→2025 compound | |
| 88 | +annual growth is 25.5% for software engineering, 22.7% for computational complexity, 22.4% for compilers, 14.2% for | |
| 89 | +algorithms, 13.1% for formal verification and 11.5% for programming languages, against 0.9%, 1.9%, −0.3%, 1.6%, −5.1% | |
| 90 | +and −2.4% over 2018→2022. The comparison with the corpus-wide multi-label growth (6.1% → 26.0%) shows that this is mostly | |
| 91 | +the corpus-wide acceleration (claim G-05), and the primary-label shares of all six categories fell between 2018 and 2025 | |
| 92 | +(algorithms 5.83% → 3.79%, software engineering 5.81% → 4.07%, formal verification 1.06% → 0.52%, programming languages | |
| 93 | +0.88% → 0.47%, computational complexity 0.77% → 0.47%, compilers 0.15% → 0.09%; claim G-06). The theory and software | |
| 94 | +categories are growing in absolute terms and shrinking in relative terms. Two cautions: the post-period CAGR spans two | |
| 95 | +years and is exposed to indexing lag (Part IV, truncation section); and `results/bibliometrics/cagr_by_category.csv` | |
| 96 | +reports primary counts about three times smaller than `category_counts_yearly.csv` for these categories (algorithms | |
| 97 | +2018: 9,716 against 29,148), so it predates the current classification and its CAGR values are not used here (claim | |
| 98 | +G-07; the generator `bibliometrics/04_diversity_cagr.py` reads the counts file, so re-running it resolves the issue). | |
| 99 | + | |
| 100 | +*Structural change.* The interrupted-time-series slope change at 2022-12 is positive and HAC-significant for all six | |
| 101 | +series (1.0% to 1.8% per month), but no series passes the placebo test at the 5% level: the placebo slope p-values are | |
| 102 | +0.062 (algorithms), 0.062 (computational complexity), 0.154 (software engineering), 0.215 (compilers), 0.246 (formal | |
| 103 | +verification) and 0.431 (programming languages). The 2022-12 slope change is therefore not distinguishable from | |
| 104 | +pseudo-events placed in the baseline (claim G-08). Level changes at 2022-12 are negative or null in five categories | |
| 105 | +(formal verification −10.9%, p = 0.029; computational complexity −6.8%, p < 0.001; algorithms −4.5%, p = 0.039) and | |
| 106 | +positive only in software engineering (+4.8%, p = 0.124), which is also the only category with a significant positive | |
| 107 | +level change at the GPT-4 date (0.102, p = 0.003; claim G-09). Bai–Perron dates a single break at 2023-04 for | |
| 108 | +algorithms, computational complexity and compilers, two breaks for programming languages (2022-04, 2024-06) and formal | |
| 109 | +verification (2022-02, 2024-07), and 2022-07 for software engineering. None of this supports a causal reading, and the | |
| 110 | +negative level changes are at least partly the seasonality of proceedings dates. | |
| 111 | + | |
| 112 | +*Composition.* Co-classification with the LLM category rose in every category between 2022 and 2025: software | |
| 113 | +engineering 4.0% → 21.2% of its works, programming languages 4.2% → 18.3%, compilers 3.1% → 14.9%, formal verification | |
| 114 | +0.7% → 7.9%, algorithms and computational complexity 1.3% → 5.3% (claim G-10; `tab_theory_llm_cooccurrence`). The | |
| 115 | +gradient runs from the applied, code-facing categories to the mathematical ones. Reference flows tell a more conservative | |
| 116 | +story: in the post period, software-engineering works direct 2.5% of their categorised references to LLM works, | |
| 117 | +computational complexity 1.8%, compilers 1.2%, programming languages 0.7%, formal verification 0.4% and algorithms 0.3%, | |
| 118 | +while self-citation shares are nearly unchanged (algorithms 65.1% → 65.0%, software engineering 64.6% → 62.4%, formal | |
| 119 | +verification 49.9% → 47.0%; claim G-11). Two flow changes deserve notice. Computational complexity's self-citation share | |
| 120 | +fell from 30.0% to 20.6% while its references to HCI doubled (3.0% → 6.7%); given the candidate list, this is more | |
| 121 | +plausibly the social-science contamination of the category than a change in theoretical research (claim G-12, | |
| 122 | +contested). Formal verification's inbound citations from computer vision doubled (6.7% → 13.8%), consistent with the | |
| 123 | +neural-network verification literature being cited by robustness work (claim G-13, contested; no paper-level breakdown). | |
| 124 | + | |
| 125 | +## 3. Algorithms and data structures | |
| 126 | + | |
| 127 | +*Established.* The window contains results that the field itself regards as landmarks and that the verified bibliography | |
| 128 | +records: maximum flow and minimum-cost flow in almost-linear time (Chen et al., FOCS 2022), negative-weight single-source | |
| 129 | +shortest paths in near-linear time (Bernstein, Nanongkai and Wulff-Nilsen, FOCS 2022; JACM and CACM republications | |
| 130 | +2025), the first directed SSSP algorithm below the sorting barrier (Duan et al., STOC 2025, best paper; JACM 2026), and | |
| 131 | +optimal bounds for open addressing without reordering (Farach-Colton, Krapivin and Kuszmaul, FOCS 2024), which overturned | |
| 132 | +a conjecture dating from the 1980s. None of them is in the candidate list (claim G-14). The corpus records the programme | |
| 133 | +of algorithms with predictions through a 2024 arXiv re-posting of the 2018 NeurIPS paper on ski rental and | |
| 134 | +non-clairvoyant scheduling (abstract: algorithms "oblivious to the performance of the predictor, improve with better | |
| 135 | +predictions, but do not degrade much if the predictions are poor"); the programme's canonical references are the JACM | |
| 136 | +competitive-caching paper and the CACM overview (claim G-22). The fine-grained-complexity programme that organised | |
| 137 | +baseline-period algorithms research (Part II) is represented by the ICM 2018 survey. | |
| 138 | + | |
| 139 | +*Contested.* Six of the 25 candidates are metaphor-based metaheuristics (Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm 2021, Aquila | |
| 140 | +Optimizer 2021, artificial lemming 2025, glider snake 2026, gray langurs 2026, starfish 2026), published in engineering | |
| 141 | +and AI-review journals and benchmarked on CEC function suites. Their abstracts promise balanced "exploration and | |
| 142 | +exploitation" and superiority over "13 state-of-the-art algorithms". The operational-research literature has argued since | |
| 143 | +Sörensen's "Metaheuristics—the metaphor exposed" that the genre re-describes known methods under new metaphors, a | |
| 144 | +position restated in the 2021 "call for action" and in the 2022 analysis of six such algorithms. The corpus shows the | |
| 145 | +genre's weight in the highly cited stratum of the category (claim G-04); it does not evaluate the algorithms. The two | |
| 146 | +post-period research candidates that survive the audit are modest: Kd-trees extended to Bregman divergences (WADS 2025, | |
| 147 | +with a C++ implementation) and GNN-selected branching inside branch-and-reduce for maximum independent set (SEA 2024); | |
| 148 | +both carry citation counts that belong to other works. | |
| 149 | + | |
| 150 | +*AI-discovered algorithms.* AlphaTensor (matrix multiplication, 2022), AlphaDev (sorting routines, 2023), FunSearch | |
| 151 | +(cap sets, 2023) and AlphaEvolve (2025, preprint) report improvements on specific instances; no independent replication | |
| 152 | +appears in the verified bibliography (claim G-23, contested). Whether these results change how algorithms are designed is | |
| 153 | +an open problem (G-P9), as is the diffusion of the 2022–2025 breakthroughs into practice (G-P6). | |
| 154 | + | |
| 155 | +## 4. Computational complexity | |
| 156 | + | |
| 157 | +The category is the least precise of the six (fifteen misclassified candidates). The two in-scope research candidates | |
| 158 | +are the STOC 2019 non-elementary lower bound for Petri-net reachability, whose abstract describes the problem as open | |
| 159 | +since the 1960s and the previous best lower bound as Lipton's 1976 exponential space, and a 2026 TCS paper on SAT in | |
| 160 | +spiking neural P systems (no abstract). The reachability story was completed in the baseline period: Czerwiński and | |
| 161 | +Orlikowski (FOCS 2021) and Leroux (FOCS 2021) established Ackermann-completeness, matching the Leroux–Schmitz upper bound | |
| 162 | +(claim G-15). In the window, the result the field regards as the main complexity-theoretic event is Williams's STOC 2025 | |
| 163 | +simulation of time t in space O(√(t log t)) (JACM 2026), which improves the Hopcroft–Paul–Valiant bound after fifty | |
| 164 | +years; Kelley and Meka's strong bounds for 3-progressions (FOCS 2023) are the main additive-combinatorics result. | |
| 165 | +Neither appears in the candidate list; both are recorded through verified DOIs. | |
| 166 | + | |
| 167 | +The boundary with language models is where the category's post-2022 growth is most visible in the co-classification | |
| 168 | +statistics, yet the relevant works are mostly classified elsewhere: the proof that log-precision transformers lie in | |
| 169 | +uniform TC⁰ (TACL 2023) and the survey of formal-language results for transformers (TACL 2024) bound what a single forward | |
| 170 | +pass can compute and motivate chain-of-thought as a route to greater expressive power (claim G-21, speculative as to its | |
| 171 | +place in the corpus). Textbooks on Kolmogorov complexity (4th edition, 2019) and on parameterized complexity dominate the | |
| 172 | +rest of the list. | |
| 173 | + | |
| 174 | +## 5. Programming languages | |
| 175 | + | |
| 176 | +The baseline lineage (Part II) is Rust and its semantic foundation (RustBelt, 2017; the CACM account of safe systems | |
| 177 | +programming, 2021), the Lean 4 prover-as-language and mathlib, and the verified artefacts CompCert and seL4. The | |
| 178 | +candidate list records this lineage only through re-deposited theses of the L4/seL4 school (separation logic for virtual | |
| 179 | +memory, formal memory models for C systems code, the clustered multikernel), all dated 2022 by their deposit year. In the | |
| 180 | +window, Verus (SOSP 2024) extends the lineage with a Rust-based verification framework for systems code (claim G-24). | |
| 181 | + | |
| 182 | +The two post-period research candidates mark the entry of language models into the community's top venue (claim G-16): | |
| 183 | +LLift (OOPSLA 2024) combines static analysis with an LLM to find use-before-initialisation bugs in the Linux kernel, and | |
| 184 | +its abstract reports four previously unknown bugs acknowledged by the kernel community; WhiteFox (OOPSLA 2024) uses an | |
| 185 | +LLM that reads optimisation source code to generate test programs for compiler optimisations. Both report bugs found, | |
| 186 | +neither reports guarantees. The contrast with translation validation (Alive2, PLDI 2021, bounded) and with | |
| 187 | +Csmith-style differential testing (PLDI 2011) is the natural axis of comparison and an open problem (G-P4). ZEUS (NDSS | |
| 188 | +2018), which combines abstract interpretation and constrained Horn clauses to check smart contracts, is the baseline | |
| 189 | +representative of program analysis for a new target. Co-classification of programming-languages works with LLM reached | |
| 190 | +18.3% in 2025, the second highest of the six categories; references to LLM works are 0.7% of the category's references. | |
| 191 | + | |
| 192 | +## 6. Compilers | |
| 193 | + | |
| 194 | +The category is the smallest (0.09% of primary labels in 2025) and the most lexically contaminated after complexity. Its | |
| 195 | +in-scope candidates trace a coherent line. Baseline: MLIR (CGO 2021), the multi-level infrastructure that reduced the | |
| 196 | +cost of domain-specific compilers; Tiramisu (CGO 2019), a polyhedral compiler with an explicit scheduling language; | |
| 197 | +ExaStencils (2020), a layered DSL for multigrid solvers; and two surveys of machine learning in compiler optimisation | |
| 198 | +(Proc. IEEE 2018; CSUR 2018 on autotuning and phase ordering), which show that learned compiler heuristics are a | |
| 199 | +pre-2018 programme. Post-period: LLM4VV (FGCS 2024), an LLM-generated validation suite for OpenACC compilers, and LLM | |
| 200 | +Compiler (CC 2025), foundation models trained on 546 billion tokens of LLVM-IR and assembly, whose abstract reports 77% | |
| 201 | +of the optimising potential of an autotuning search for code size. The shift is from learning a heuristic inside a | |
| 202 | +compiler to pre-training a model on compiler artefacts; what it leaves open is correctness, which the compiler community | |
| 203 | +has historically handled by differential testing and translation validation. Co-classification with LLM reached 14.9% | |
| 204 | +in 2025; references to LLM works are 1.2%. The deep-learning compiler stack recorded in `references.bib` (TVM, Triton, | |
| 205 | +PyTorch 2) is the other post-2018 development and is reviewed in Part VI. | |
| 206 | + | |
| 207 | +## 7. Formal verification | |
| 208 | + | |
| 209 | +This is the category with the most in-scope research candidates (eight) and the clearest internal structure. Tools and | |
| 210 | +competitions: cvc5 (TACAS 2022), the SV-COMP 2024 report (76 tools, 30,300 C tasks), Marabou (CAV 2019), the Handbook of | |
| 211 | +Satisfiability (2nd ed., 2021). Neural-network verification: the 2018 symbolic-interval preprint, DeepPoly (POPL 2019), | |
| 212 | +Marabou, with Reluplex (CAV 2017) and VNN-COMP (2023 report) as the lineage; the doubling of formal verification's | |
| 213 | +inbound citations from computer vision is consistent with this literature (claim G-13). Smart contracts: VerX (S&P | |
| 214 | +2020), "the first automated verifier able to prove functional properties of Ethereum smart contracts" per its abstract. | |
| 215 | +Learned theorem proving: MizAR 60 for Mizar 50 (ITP 2023), which reports automatic proofs of about 60% of Mizar theorems | |
| 216 | +in the hammer setting and 75% with human-selected premises, through the E and Vampire provers with ENIGMA and Deepire | |
| 217 | +learning and an incremental loop over millions of ATP proofs (claim G-17). The LLM-based line (Baldur, 2023; LeanDojo and | |
| 218 | +DeepSeek-Prover, preprints; the 2024 position paper on formal mathematical reasoning) reports whole-proof generation on | |
| 219 | +Lean and Isabelle benchmarks whose figures are not comparable across systems and are exposed to training-set overlap | |
| 220 | +(open problem G-P5). Equality saturation (egg, POPL 2021; CACM research highlight 2026) and quantitative interface | |
| 221 | +automata (CSL 2026) are the theory-of-verification entries. The category's primary share halved (1.06% → 0.52%) while | |
| 222 | +its multi-label count grew, which suggests that works carrying both a verification and an AI or security label lose the | |
| 223 | +primary label to the larger category (open problem G-P10). | |
| 224 | + | |
| 225 | +## 8. Software engineering | |
| 226 | + | |
| 227 | +Software engineering is where the window's change is largest and best documented. Surveys: machine-learning testing | |
| 228 | +(TSE 2020, 144 papers) at the baseline, software testing with LLMs (TSE 2024, 102 studies) in the window; the latter's | |
| 229 | +abstract names test-case preparation and program repair as the most common uses. Program repair and testing with | |
| 230 | +pre-trained models (ICSE 2023) and universal fuzzing with LLMs (ICSE 2024) are the method entries from `references.bib` | |
| 231 | +and the Part VII-a bibliography; SWE-bench and SWE-agent define the agentic evaluation setting. Empirical: the | |
| 232 | +Management Science field experiments (Microsoft, Accenture, a Fortune 100 firm; 4,867 developers) report a 26.08% | |
| 233 | +increase in completed tasks (s.e. 10.3%) with larger gains for less experienced developers, while the 2025 METR | |
| 234 | +randomised trial preprint with experienced open-source developers reports slower completion. The two are not | |
| 235 | +contradictory once population and outcome are distinguished (enterprise task completion versus expert time per issue in | |
| 236 | +mature repositories), but the reconciliation is the specialist's reading of two abstracts (claim G-18, contested). | |
| 237 | +Security: Copilot's vulnerable suggestions (2022), the user study on insecure code with assistants (CCS 2023) and the | |
| 238 | +ICPEC 2025 CWE-classification study agree that high detection or completion rates coexist with poor fine-grained security | |
| 239 | +reasoning (claim G-19). Co-classification with LLM reached 21.2% of the category in 2025, the highest of the six, while | |
| 240 | +references to LLM works are 2.5%; whether the vocabulary shift is a method shift is open problem G-P2. The category | |
| 241 | +also contains the only positive 2022-12 level change and the only significant GPT-4-date level change (claim G-09). | |
| 242 | + | |
| 243 | +## 9. Synthesis | |
| 244 | + | |
| 245 | +Three conclusions follow, in decreasing order of evidential strength. First, the landmark instrument fails in these | |
| 246 | +areas, for identifiable and partly correctable reasons (identifier collisions, generic-title chapters, re-deposited | |
| 247 | +classics, lexical misclassification, thesis cells); the correction is a selection-stage problem (G-P1), not a synthesis | |
| 248 | +problem, and the specialist's audit table should accompany any use of the list. Second, the six categories grew in | |
| 249 | +absolute terms and declined in relative terms after 2022; their ITS slope changes are positive but not distinguishable | |
| 250 | +from baseline pseudo-events; their vocabulary moved toward language models in proportion to their distance from | |
| 251 | +mathematics (software engineering and programming languages most, algorithms and complexity least); and their citation | |
| 252 | +behaviour moved little. Third, the substantive developments of the window are of two kinds that the corpus treats very | |
| 253 | +differently: theoretical results (flow, shortest paths, hashing, time–space simulation, 3-progressions) that the | |
| 254 | +citation-normalised ranking does not see, and the entry of language models into verification, program analysis, | |
| 255 | +compiler testing and software engineering, which the co-classification statistics see clearly but whose guarantees, | |
| 256 | +comparability and productivity effects remain unresolved (G-P3, G-P4, G-P5). | |
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| 25 | 25 | \clearpage |
| 26 | 26 | \input{tables/tab_known_set} |
| 27 | 27 | \clearpage |
| 28 | −\input{tables/tab_net_area_flows} | |
| 29 | −\clearpage | |
| 30 | −\input{tables/tab_net_modularity} | |
| 31 | −\clearpage | |
| 32 | −\input{tables/tab_net_category_to_ai} | |
| 33 | −\clearpage | |
| 34 | −\input{tables/tab_net_category_actors} | |
| 35 | −\clearpage | |
| 36 | −\input{tables/tab_net_ai_vs_rest} | |
| 37 | −\clearpage | |
| 38 | −\input{tables/tab_net_ai_vs_rest_yearly} | |
| 39 | −\clearpage | |
| 40 | −\input{tables/tab_net_category_gini} | |
| 41 | −\clearpage | |
| 42 | −\input{tables/tab_net_gini_ai_vs_rest} | |
| 43 | −\clearpage | |
| 44 | 28 | \input{tables/tab_ai_growth} |
| 45 | 29 | \clearpage |
| 46 | 30 | \input{tables/tab_ai_counts} |
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| 24 | 24 | \texttt{fig\_cross\_area.pdf} & Cross-area reference shares by citing area and modularity of the category citation network by year. & cross\_area\_share\_yearly.csv; modularity\_yearly.csv \\ |
| 25 | 25 | \texttt{fig\_emerging\_metrics.pdf} & Out-of-time detection performance of the emerging-topic models by horizon. & metrics\_h12.json; metrics\_h24.json \\ |
| 26 | 26 | \texttt{fig\_known\_set.pdf} & Monthly keyword series for the twelve preregistered concepts with the detector's first alarm. & known\_set\_monthly.csv \\ |
| 27 | +\texttt{fig\_category\_its\_panels.pdf} & Monthly series and interrupted-time-series fits for every category. & fit\_cat\_*.csv \\ | |
| 28 | +\texttt{fig\_llm\_cooccurrence.pdf} & Share of each category's multi-label works that also carry the LLM category, by year. & category\_cooccurrence\_yearly.csv; category\_counts\_yearly.csv \\ | |
| 27 | 29 | \bottomrule |
| 28 | 30 | \end{longtable} |
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| 1 | −% ============================================================================ | |
| 2 | −% UQO Working Paper 44 — The Post-ChatGPT Computer Science Revolution | |
| 3 | −% Preamble follows the UQO working-paper template (_modele-working-paper/main.tex) | |
| 4 | −% ============================================================================ | |
| 5 | −\documentclass[12pt,letterpaper]{article} | |
| 6 | −\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc} | |
| 7 | −\usepackage[T1]{fontenc} | |
| 8 | −\usepackage[english]{babel} | |
| 9 | −\usepackage[letterpaper,top=1in,bottom=1in,left=1in,right=1in]{geometry} | |
| 10 | −\usepackage{mathptmx} | |
| 11 | −\usepackage{microtype} | |
| 12 | −\usepackage{setspace} | |
| 13 | −\onehalfspacing | |
| 14 | −\usepackage{amsmath,amssymb,amsthm} | |
| 15 | −\usepackage{booktabs,tabularx,multirow,threeparttable,longtable,array} | |
| 16 | −\usepackage{siunitx} | |
| 17 | −\sisetup{input-symbols = {()}, table-format = -1.3, parse-numbers = false} | |
| 18 | −\usepackage{graphicx,subcaption,float} | |
| 19 | −\usepackage[dvipsnames]{xcolor} | |
| 20 | −\usepackage[colorlinks=true,linkcolor=NavyBlue,citecolor=NavyBlue,urlcolor=NavyBlue,breaklinks=true]{hyperref} | |
| 21 | −\usepackage[authoryear,round,semicolon]{natbib} | |
| 22 | −\bibliographystyle{aer} | |
| 23 | −\usepackage[font=small,labelfont=bf,labelsep=period,justification=justified,singlelinecheck=false]{caption} | |
| 24 | −\usepackage{fancyhdr} | |
| 25 | −\pagestyle{fancy}\fancyhf{}\renewcommand{\headrulewidth}{0pt}\fancyfoot[C]{\thepage} | |
| 26 | −\usepackage{titlesec} | |
| 27 | −\titleformat{\section}{\large\bfseries}{\thesection.}{0.5em}{} | |
| 28 | −\titleformat{\subsection}{\normalsize\bfseries}{\thesubsection.}{0.5em}{} | |
| 29 | −\titleformat{\subsubsection}{\normalsize\itshape}{\thesubsubsection.}{0.5em}{} | |
| 30 | −\usepackage[toc,page]{appendix} | |
| 31 | −\usepackage{enumitem} | |
| 32 | −\setlist{nosep,leftmargin=*} | |
| 33 | −\newtheorem{definition}{Definition} | |
| 34 | −\newtheorem{proposition}{Proposition} | |
| 35 | −\newtheorem{hypothesis}{Hypothesis} | |
| 36 | −\newcommand{\E}{\mathbb{E}} | |
| 37 | −\newcommand{\R}{\mathbb{R}} | |
| 38 | −\newcommand{\pending}[1]{\textcolor{BrickRed}{[pending human review: #1]}} | |
| 39 | −\graphicspath{{figures/}} | |
| 40 | − | |
| 41 | −% ---- metadata ---- | |
| 42 | −\newcommand{\WPnumber}{44} | |
| 43 | −\newcommand{\WPtitle}{The Post-ChatGPT Computer Science Revolution} | |
| 44 | −\newcommand{\WPsubtitle}{A Comprehensive Systematic Mapping, Bibliometric Analysis, and Knowledge Graph of Computer Science Research, 2022--2026} | |
| 45 | −\newcommand{\WPdate}{November 2026} | |
| 46 | −\newcommand{\WPversion}{0.1} | |
| 47 | −\input{tables/numbers} % machine-generated macros (counts, estimates) — never edited by hand | |
| 48 | −\begin{document} | |
| 49 | −\input{tables/tab_systems_categories} | |
| 50 | −\input{sections/part06_systems} | |
| 51 | −\bibliography{references_all} | |
| 52 | −\end{document} | |
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| 1 | −% part07_theory_security — to be written (Phase 7) | |
| 1 | +% Part VII — Theory, Algorithms, and Security: theory half (Agent G) then security half (Agent H) | |
| 2 | +\input{sections/part07a_theory} | |
| 3 | +\input{sections/part07b_security} | |
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manuscript/sections/part07a_theory.tex
+1 −0
@@ -0,0 +1 @@ | ||
| 1 | +% part07a_theory — being written by Agent G | |
modified
manuscript/sections/part08_networks.tex
+246 −44
@@ -203,13 +203,36 @@ if anything slower in 2024 and 2025 than in 2021 and 2022. | ||
| 203 | 203 | |
| 204 | 204 | The China part of H6 asks whether the share of works with China-affiliated authors rises in the post period |
| 205 | 205 | \emph{in the AI categories}. The aggregate rise is established by Table~\ref{tab:country_concentration}, |
| 206 | −whose column of works with a China-affiliated author is the quantity the hypothesis names; the category-specific version requires the | |
| 207 | −classification and is \pending{China share by category after classification}. The aggregate result is, | |
| 208 | −however, weaker evidence than it looks, because the rise is a continuation of a trend that predates the | |
| 209 | −window and is documented in every recent comparison of national output | |
| 210 | −\citep{bornmann2021growth}; a test of H6 that would be informative must compare the post-period | |
| 211 | −growth of China's share in AI categories with its growth in the rest of computer science, which is what the | |
| 212 | −pending analysis will do. | |
| 206 | +whose column of works with a China-affiliated author is the quantity the hypothesis names. The | |
| 207 | +category-specific version uses the primary category of Part~IX: Table~\ref{tab:net_category_actors} gives, | |
| 208 | +for each of the forty categories, the share of works with a China-affiliated author in the baseline and in | |
| 209 | +the post period, Table~\ref{tab:net_ai_vs_rest} pools the nine categories of the AI/ML area against the | |
| 210 | +thirty-one others, and Table~\ref{tab:net_ai_vs_rest_yearly} gives the two pooled series by year. Three | |
| 211 | +things must be said before reading them. The denominator of these shares is every work of the category, | |
| 212 | +including works without affiliation data, so the level is below that of Table~\ref{tab:country_concentration} | |
| 213 | +and is depressed wherever affiliation coverage is low, which is the case for the most recent cohorts and for | |
| 214 | +preprint-heavy categories; the within-category comparison across periods is affected to the extent that | |
| 215 | +coverage changed. The grouping by primary category assigns a work to one category only, so a vision paper | |
| 216 | +that uses a language model counts under computer vision, not under large language models. And the AI/ML | |
| 217 | +area of the ontology is wider than the four categories that define the post period, since it also contains | |
| 218 | +reinforcement learning, machine-learning theory, deep-learning architectures, agents and AI safety. | |
| 219 | + | |
| 220 | +With these qualifications, the China share rises from the baseline to the post period in the AI/ML area, as | |
| 221 | +H6 predicts, and it rises in the pooled other areas as well, by a larger margin; the note of | |
| 222 | +Table~\ref{tab:net_category_actors} counts the categories in which the share rises, and the rise is close to | |
| 223 | +universal outside the AI/ML area. Within the AI/ML area the rise is carried by the older categories, | |
| 224 | +reinforcement learning, deep-learning architectures and agents, while the categories that define the post | |
| 225 | +period behave differently: the share is nearly flat for large language models, falls for foundation models and | |
| 226 | +generative AI, and is highest of all forty categories, in both periods, for multimodal AI. The United States | |
| 227 | +share falls in both groups and in most categories, with large language models the one AI/ML category in | |
| 228 | +which it rises. The yearly series of Table~\ref{tab:net_ai_vs_rest_yearly} show the pooled shares of the two | |
| 229 | +groups moving together: both rise through 2023 and fall in 2024 and 2025, and the two series are closer to | |
| 230 | +each other in every post-period year than in any baseline year. The fall after 2023 coincides with the lower | |
| 231 | +affiliation coverage of recent cohorts (Section~\ref{sec:net-teams}) and cannot be read as a reversal; what | |
| 232 | +it does establish is that the AI/ML area is not where the China share grows fastest. The verdict on this | |
| 233 | +component of H6 is therefore a supported direction with an unsupported specificity: the share rises in AI | |
| 234 | +categories, but less than elsewhere, and the rise is the continuation of a trend that predates the window and | |
| 235 | +is documented in every recent comparison of national output \citep{bornmann2021growth}. | |
| 213 | 236 | |
| 214 | 237 | Concentration across countries, measured by the Herfindahl--Hirschman index of fractional shares and by the |
| 215 | 238 | shares of the five and ten largest countries, rises through 2025 (Table~\ref{tab:country_concentration}). |
@@ -234,6 +257,9 @@ reported with the composition caveat rather than as a change in behaviour. | ||
| 234 | 257 | \begingroup\renewcommand{\small}{\footnotesize}\setlength{\tabcolsep}{3.5pt}\input{tables/tab_countries}\endgroup |
| 235 | 258 | \begingroup\renewcommand{\small}{\footnotesize}\setlength{\tabcolsep}{3.5pt}\input{tables/tab_country_shares}\endgroup |
| 236 | 259 | \begingroup\renewcommand{\small}{\scriptsize}\setlength{\tabcolsep}{3pt}\input{tables/tab_country_concentration}\endgroup |
| 260 | +\begingroup\scriptsize\setlength{\tabcolsep}{3pt}\input{tables/tab_net_category_actors}\endgroup | |
| 261 | +\begingroup\renewcommand{\small}{\scriptsize}\setlength{\tabcolsep}{3pt}\input{tables/tab_net_ai_vs_rest}\endgroup | |
| 262 | +\begingroup\renewcommand{\small}{\scriptsize}\setlength{\tabcolsep}{3pt}\input{tables/tab_net_ai_vs_rest_yearly}\endgroup | |
| 237 | 263 | |
| 238 | 264 | \section{Institutions and sectors} |
| 239 | 265 | \label{sec:net-institutions} |
@@ -264,8 +290,23 @@ academic. Table~\ref{tab:institution_types} shows the same thing from the other | ||
| 264 | 290 | share of affiliations rising through the window and the facility, government and company shares all giving |
| 265 | 291 | way. The aggregate part of H6 is therefore not supported; the sign is opposite to the one predicted. Whether |
| 266 | 292 | the category-specific version holds, that is, whether the company share rises within the AI categories while |
| 267 | −falling in the aggregate, is exactly the kind of composition question that the aggregate cannot settle, and it | |
| 268 | −is \pending{industry share by category after classification}. | |
| 293 | +falling in the aggregate, is exactly the kind of composition question that the aggregate cannot settle, and | |
| 294 | +Tables~\ref{tab:net_category_actors}, \ref{tab:net_ai_vs_rest} and~\ref{tab:net_ai_vs_rest_yearly} settle it | |
| 295 | +in the negative. The company share of the AI/ML area is higher than that of the other areas in every year, | |
| 296 | +which is the familiar result that industry is more present in machine learning than in the rest of computer | |
| 297 | +science; but it peaks in 2021 and falls in every subsequent year, so that the baseline-to-post decline of the | |
| 298 | +AI/ML area is larger than that of the other areas, not smaller. The note of | |
| 299 | +Table~\ref{tab:net_category_actors} counts the categories whose company share rises: one of the nine AI/ML | |
| 300 | +categories (agents), against a sizeable minority of the others, among them cloud computing, information | |
| 301 | +retrieval, distributed computing, database systems, operating systems and quantum computing. The four | |
| 302 | +categories with the highest baseline company shares, multimodal AI, foundation models, reinforcement | |
| 303 | +learning and large language models, all lose share in the post period, and generative AI loses more than | |
| 304 | +half of its share. The denominator caveat of the previous paragraph applies with more force here than for the | |
| 305 | +China share, because the AI/ML area has the highest and fastest-growing share of arXiv-linked works | |
| 306 | +(Table~\ref{tab:net_ai_vs_rest}) and preprints are the records least often enriched with affiliations; part of | |
| 307 | +the measured decline is therefore coverage. Nothing in the category tables, however, suggests the opposite | |
| 308 | +sign for the AI categories, and the frontier-share results of \citet{ahmed2023industry} remain the only | |
| 309 | +sense in which an industry share has risen. | |
| 269 | 310 | |
| 270 | 311 | The result is less at odds with the cited literature than it seems, for three reasons that matter for its |
| 271 | 312 | interpretation. \citet{ahmed2023industry} measure industry's presence at the frontier---the largest models, |
@@ -417,8 +458,24 @@ rather than a change in the shape of the tail, and the 2023 uptick is the trunca | ||
| 417 | 458 | H5 predicts that citation inequality is higher in the post period than in the baseline \emph{for AI |
| 418 | 459 | categories}. The aggregate series can test only the aggregate statement, and for the one post-period |
| 419 | 460 | publication year with a complete window (2023) the aggregate Gini is above the 2022 value and below every |
| 420 | −baseline value before 2021, so the aggregate evidence is mixed and dominated by truncation; the category | |
| 421 | −version of the test, which is the one the hypothesis states, is \pending{Gini by category after classification}. | |
| 461 | +baseline value before 2021, so the aggregate evidence is mixed and dominated by truncation. The category | |
| 462 | +version of the test, which is the one the hypothesis states, is in Table~\ref{tab:net_category_gini}, which | |
| 463 | +gives the Gini of $c^{(36)}$ by primary category for every publication year with a complete window, and in | |
| 464 | +Table~\ref{tab:net_gini_ai_vs_rest}, which pools the AI/ML area against the other areas as work-weighted means | |
| 465 | +of the category statistics. Two patterns are visible. Across the baseline the within-category Gini falls in | |
| 466 | +almost every category, as the aggregate does, and for the same reason, the falling share of uncited works. | |
| 467 | +For the 2023 cohort the pooled AI/ML Gini is above its baseline mean while the pooled Gini of the other | |
| 468 | +areas is below its own; the note of Table~\ref{tab:net_category_gini} counts the categories whose 2023 value | |
| 469 | +exceeds their baseline mean, and the proportion is far higher among the AI/ML categories than among the | |
| 470 | +others. Large language models have the highest Gini of any category in every year, and theirs rises in every | |
| 471 | +year of the window, baseline included, which is the one category-level series that moves against the | |
| 472 | +baseline decline. This is evidence in the direction of H5, and it is weak evidence: it rests on a single | |
| 473 | +post-period cohort whose window is affected by truncation, the uncited share of that cohort rises by about | |
| 474 | +the same amount in both groups, so the difference between them is a tail effect rather than a zeros effect, | |
| 475 | +and the small categories, together with the implausible 2023 value for formal verification, show the | |
| 476 | +sensitivity of a within-category Gini to a single misattributed record | |
| 477 | +(Section~\ref{sec:net-topcited}). The 2024 cohort, whose window closes at the end of 2026, will be the first | |
| 478 | +test with two post-period cohorts. | |
| 422 | 479 | The reader should also weigh the finding of \citet{nielsen2021inequality} that global citation inequality has |
| 423 | 480 | risen over several decades when measured on long windows across all fields; the three-year windows used here |
| 424 | 481 | measure a different quantity, early attention, whose inequality is driven by zeros, and the two results are |
@@ -444,8 +501,11 @@ the methodology's reservations about FWCI (Section~\ref{sec:m-bibliometrics}) ar | ||
| 444 | 501 | indicator is not used further. |
| 445 | 502 | |
| 446 | 503 | \begingroup\renewcommand{\small}{\scriptsize}\setlength{\tabcolsep}{3pt}\input{tables/tab_citation_windows}\endgroup |
| 504 | +\begingroup\scriptsize\setlength{\tabcolsep}{3pt}\input{tables/tab_net_category_gini}\endgroup | |
| 505 | +\begingroup\renewcommand{\small}{\scriptsize}\setlength{\tabcolsep}{2.5pt}\input{tables/tab_net_gini_ai_vs_rest}\endgroup | |
| 447 | 506 | |
| 448 | 507 | \subsection{The most cited works and what they reveal about the database} |
| 508 | +\label{sec:net-topcited} | |
| 449 | 509 | |
| 450 | 510 | Table~\ref{tab:top_cited} lists the ten works with the largest $c^{(36)}$ in each publication year from 2018 |
| 451 | 511 | to 2025, with their total citations to date. The list is reported because research question RQ3 asks for the |
@@ -487,12 +547,15 @@ cannot rely on a ranked list from the database without a record-level audit, and | ||
| 487 | 547 | consistency of window and total counts, the uniqueness of the work across records, and the agreement of the |
| 488 | 548 | record's date with the work's first appearance. That audit is part of the human-review checkpoint on RQ3 and |
| 489 | 549 | is \pending{record-level audit of the top-cited lists}; until it is done, the titles above are quoted as what |
| 490 | −the database returns, not as a ranking endorsed by this study. The lesson for the field-normalised scores | |
| 550 | +the database returns, not as a ranking endorsed by this study. (This item does not depend on the | |
| 551 | +classification and remains open; it belongs to the RQ3 human-review checkpoint, not to the corpus pipeline.) The lesson for the field-normalised scores | |
| 491 | 552 | of Section~\ref{sec:m-citations} is the same as the one \citet{waltman2016review} draw for all mean-based |
| 492 | 553 | indicators: a reference class containing one record with tens of thousands of misattributed citations has a |
| 493 | 554 | mean that is wrong for every work in the class, and the normalised scores of Part~IX should be computed |
| 494 | 555 | after the exclusion of records failing the consistency check; whether the current pipeline applies that |
| 495 | −exclusion is \pending{NCS computed after exclusion of inconsistent records}. | |
| 556 | +exclusion is \pending{NCS computed after exclusion of inconsistent records}. (Also left open: the | |
| 557 | +category-level mean normalised scores of \texttt{category\_impact\_yearly.csv} are computed on the unaudited | |
| 558 | +reference classes and are for that reason not reported in this part.) | |
| 496 | 559 | |
| 497 | 560 | \begingroup\footnotesize\setlength{\tabcolsep}{4pt}\input{tables/tab_top_cited}\endgroup |
| 498 | 561 | |
@@ -636,16 +699,133 @@ references, not as corrected for the composition of the unresolved ones, which c | ||
| 636 | 699 | |
| 637 | 700 | The flow matrices $F_t$ between the categories of the ontology, the cross-area shares $X_{\alpha,t}$ of |
| 638 | 701 | equation~\eqref{eq:cross-area} and the yearly modularities $Q_{\mathrm{cat}}$ and $Q_{\mathrm{area}}$ of |
| 639 | −equation~\eqref{eq:modularity} are the statistics on which H4 turns and the ones that would show whether | |
| 640 | −systems, security and human--computer interaction cite the AI categories more after 2022 than before. They | |
| 641 | −require the primary category of every work and are produced by | |
| 642 | −\texttt{knowledge\_graph/02\_category\_flows.py} once the classification of Part~IX is complete. The result | |
| 643 | −files \texttt{category\_flows\_yearly.csv}, \texttt{cross\_area\_share\_yearly.csv} and | |
| 644 | −\texttt{modularity\_yearly.csv} do not exist at the time of writing, and this subsection is | |
| 645 | −\pending{category flows after classification}. When it is filled, it should report, for each citing area, the | |
| 646 | −cross-area share by year with the composition-adjusted variant of Section~\ref{sec:m-networks}, the two | |
| 647 | −modularities with the self-share, and a comparison of the baseline and post means with the caveat that the | |
| 648 | −post-period citing years have shorter reference lists in the incomplete 2026 row. | |
| 702 | +equation~\eqref{eq:modularity} are the statistics on which H4 turns. They require the primary category of | |
| 703 | +every work, which the classification of Part~IX supplies, and they are computed by | |
| 704 | +\texttt{knowledge\_graph/02\_category\_flows.py} on the internal edges of Section~\ref{sec:m-citgraph}, | |
| 705 | +that is, on references from eligible works to eligible works with a primary category at both ends. | |
| 706 | +Two properties of this edge set govern everything that follows. First, the internal network is small in | |
| 707 | +2018 and grows with every citing year, because the corpus begins in 2018 and a citing year can only cite | |
| 708 | +the corpus years that precede it; the 2018 row of every table below describes a network of references to | |
| 709 | +works of the same year and is not comparable with the later rows, so the series effectively begin in 2019. | |
| 710 | +Second, the restriction to internal references means that an area's flows are measured over its references | |
| 711 | +to \emph{recent} computer science only; references to older work and to other fields, which | |
| 712 | +Sections~\ref{sec:net-flows-fields} and~\ref{sec:net-age} showed to be a declining share, are outside the | |
| 713 | +matrix. Table~\ref{tab:net_area_flows} and Figure~\ref{fig:area_flow_matrix} give the area flow matrices | |
| 714 | +by period, Table~\ref{tab:net_category_to_ai} the share of each category's internal references that go to | |
| 715 | +the nine categories of the AI/ML area, and Table~\ref{tab:net_modularity} and | |
| 716 | +Figure~\ref{fig:cross_area} the cross-area shares and the modularities by year. | |
| 717 | + | |
| 718 | +\begin{figure}[htbp] | |
| 719 | +\centering | |
| 720 | +\includegraphics[width=0.95\textwidth]{fig_area_flow_matrix.pdf} | |
| 721 | +\caption{Citation-flow matrices between the eight areas of the ontology, baseline (citing years | |
| 722 | +2018--2022) and post (2023--2026) periods: row shares of internal references from the citing area (rows) | |
| 723 | +to the cited area (columns), per cent. Source: \texttt{results/graph/area\_flows\_yearly.csv}.} | |
| 724 | +\label{fig:area_flow_matrix} | |
| 725 | +\end{figure} | |
| 726 | + | |
| 727 | +The area matrices are diagonal-dominant in both periods: every area sends the majority of its internal | |
| 728 | +references to itself, from about two thirds for the security and software areas to a much higher share for | |
| 729 | +the perception area, which is the largest area and the one whose categories (vision, language, speech, | |
| 730 | +robotics, interaction, graphics) cite each other most. The largest off-diagonal flows are structural and do | |
| 731 | +not change between periods: the AI/ML area sends about a third of its references to the perception area, | |
| 732 | +which is where the application work on vision and language that the machine-learning categories build on | |
| 733 | +is classified; the security area sends about a sixth of its references to the data and distributed area, the | |
| 734 | +networks and cloud work that security builds on; and computational science splits its outside references | |
| 735 | +between AI/ML and perception. What changes between periods is the AI/ML column. The self-share of every | |
| 736 | +area except perception falls, and the share of references each of these areas sends to the AI/ML area rises, | |
| 737 | +the increments being largest for the software area, computational science, security and the data and | |
| 738 | +distributed area (Table~\ref{tab:net_area_flows}; the post-minus-baseline differences are the subject of | |
| 739 | +Part~IX). The AI/ML area's own self-share falls as well, in favour of the perception area: the | |
| 740 | +machine-learning categories cite vision and language work more in the post period than before, which is the | |
| 741 | +flow one expects when the models of the post period are evaluated on the tasks of those categories. The | |
| 742 | +perception area is the exception on both counts: its self-share is the same in the two periods and its | |
| 743 | +share of references to the AI/ML area changes little, so the convergence that the AI/ML column shows is a | |
| 744 | +convergence of the smaller areas toward AI, not of the largest. | |
| 745 | + | |
| 746 | +The category-level table (Table~\ref{tab:net_category_to_ai}) tests H4 at the resolution at which it is | |
| 747 | +stated, since the hypothesis names systems, security and human--computer interaction as the citing fields | |
| 748 | +that should cite the AI categories more. All three do. The share of references going to the AI/ML area | |
| 749 | +rises in human--computer interaction, software engineering, cybersecurity, database systems, distributed | |
| 750 | +computing, computer networks and computer architecture, in each case from the beginning of the window, | |
| 751 | +and in each case the post-period values are above every baseline value. The timing differs across these | |
| 752 | +series in a way the hypothesis does not predict. For human--computer interaction and software engineering | |
| 753 | +the series is nearly flat through 2023 and rises steeply in 2024, 2025 and the incomplete 2026, so the | |
| 754 | +change is concentrated in the second and third post-period years rather than at the boundary, consistent | |
| 755 | +with the lag between the appearance of a model and the appearance of empirical work that cites it; for | |
| 756 | +cybersecurity, database systems and distributed computing the post-period increments continue the baseline | |
| 757 | +pace; for computer networks and computer architecture the share is the lowest among the systems categories | |
| 758 | +and its rise is slight. Within the perception area, natural language processing is the category with the | |
| 759 | +largest post-period change of any in the table: its share of references to the AI/ML area falls from 2018 | |
| 760 | +to 2020, which is the period in which the pre-trained language model became the standard tool of the | |
| 761 | +category and was cited as NLP work rather than as machine learning, and rises steeply from 2023, as the | |
| 762 | +large-language-model category (which the ontology places in the AI/ML area) absorbs the work the category | |
| 763 | +now builds on. Computer vision shows no such rise, which again reflects the classifier's boundary: vision | |
| 764 | +work citing vision models is a within-category flow. The theory categories rise modestly, and | |
| 765 | +computational biology and robotics return in the post period to the shares they had in 2018. These are | |
| 766 | +flows of references between classified works; they say that the systems, security and interaction | |
| 767 | +categories build on AI/ML-classified work more than they did, which is what H4 asserts, and not that the | |
| 768 | +work itself has become AI research, which is a question about classification rather than citation. | |
| 769 | + | |
| 770 | +\begin{figure}[htbp] | |
| 771 | +\centering | |
| 772 | +\includegraphics[width=0.95\textwidth]{fig_cross_area.pdf} | |
| 773 | +\caption{Left: share of internal references leaving the citing area, $X_{\alpha,t}$ of | |
| 774 | +equation~\eqref{eq:cross-area}, by citing area and year (per cent). Right: modularity of the yearly | |
| 775 | +category citation-flow network at the area and category partitions (equation~\eqref{eq:modularity}) and the | |
| 776 | +within-category self-share. Sources: \texttt{results/graph/cross\_area\_share\_yearly.csv}, | |
| 777 | +\texttt{results/graph/modularity\_yearly.csv}. 2026 is incomplete.} | |
| 778 | +\label{fig:cross_area} | |
| 779 | +\end{figure} | |
| 780 | + | |
| 781 | +The cross-area shares (Figure~\ref{fig:cross_area}, left; the yearly values by area are in Part~IX) order | |
| 782 | +the areas by how much of their citation leaves them. The AI/ML area has the highest boundary-crossing rate | |
| 783 | +in every year and the rate rises through 2022 and is flat thereafter; its position at the top is a | |
| 784 | +consequence of where the ontology draws its boundaries, since the area's two largest partners, vision and | |
| 785 | +language, are placed in a different area, and the statistic would be lower under any ontology that grouped | |
| 786 | +machine learning with its application fields. This dependence on the partition is the reason | |
| 787 | +Section~\ref{sec:m-networks} describes $X_{\alpha,t}$ as a boundary-crossing rate and not as a measure of | |
| 788 | +interdisciplinarity in the sense of \citet{stirling2007diversity} or \citet{rafols2010diversity}, whose | |
| 789 | +indicators weight pairs of categories by their distance. The security, software, theory and data areas | |
| 790 | +rise through the whole window at a steady pace, the hardware area is flat, computational science rises and | |
| 791 | +falls back in the incomplete year, and the perception area, after a fall in 2019 that belongs to the small | |
| 792 | +2018 network, is flat at the lowest level. Table~\ref{tab:net_modularity} aggregates these shares over areas | |
| 793 | +in two ways. The raw aggregate is flat through the baseline and rises in every post-period year; the | |
| 794 | +composition-adjusted aggregate, which holds the weights of the citing areas at their baseline values, rises | |
| 795 | +by less, so part of the post-period rise of the raw series is the growing weight among citing works of the | |
| 796 | +AI/ML area, which is the most boundary-crossing area, and the remainder, which is positive in every | |
| 797 | +post-period year, is a within-area rise of boundary crossing. H4's first component, that the share of | |
| 798 | +citations crossing area boundaries rises in the post period, is supported on both the raw and the adjusted | |
| 799 | +series, with the composition qualification stated. | |
| 800 | + | |
| 801 | +H4's second component is the modularity. $Q_{\mathrm{cat}}$ peaks in 2019 and falls in every subsequent | |
| 802 | +year; $Q_{\mathrm{area}}$ falls in every year from 2018 to 2025 and is flat, with a slight uptick in the | |
| 803 | +incomplete year, from 2023 onward; the self-share peaks in 2019 and falls thereafter, fastest after 2023 | |
| 804 | +(Table~\ref{tab:net_modularity}, Figure~\ref{fig:cross_area}, right). The post-period means are below the | |
| 805 | +baseline means at both partitions, as the note of the table records, so the verdict on this component is | |
| 806 | +that the hypothesis is supported in direction at both levels. The caveats are substantive. The decline is | |
| 807 | +present throughout the baseline; the 2022 boundary is not a break in either series, and the yearly | |
| 808 | +decrements of $Q_{\mathrm{cat}}$ in the post period are of the same order as the larger baseline | |
| 809 | +decrements, while $Q_{\mathrm{area}}$ stops falling in the post period, so that at the area partition the | |
| 810 | +post period is where the decline ends rather than where it begins. Because the partition is fixed, a fall in | |
| 811 | +$Q$ can arise from a change in the mix of citing works as well as from a change in citing behaviour; the | |
| 812 | +adjusted cross-area series shows that both are present. The modularity of equation~\eqref{eq:modularity} | |
| 813 | +inherits every property of the classifier, and in particular the placement of large language models in the | |
| 814 | +AI/ML area and of natural language processing outside it converts the post-period citation of LLM work by | |
| 815 | +NLP work into a cross-area flow by construction. The internal network grows by an order of magnitude over | |
| 816 | +the window, so the 2018 and 2019 values describe sparse networks; and the 2026 row is a partial year whose | |
| 817 | +works carry fewer parsed references. The co-classification matrix of | |
| 818 | +\texttt{category\_cooccurrence\_yearly.csv}, which counts works carrying two categories in their full label | |
| 819 | +set, is reported in Part~IX and is not used here, because, as Section~\ref{sec:m-classification} notes, it | |
| 820 | +responds to abstract length and vocabulary in a way the primary-label flows do not. What the flows and the | |
| 821 | +modularity together establish is modest and definite: the citation network of recent computer science is | |
| 822 | +becoming less assortative by category, the change is gradual and began before 2022, and the areas that | |
| 823 | +have moved are the smaller ones, which cite the machine-learning categories more, while the largest area | |
| 824 | +cites itself as much as it ever did. | |
| 825 | + | |
| 826 | +\begingroup\renewcommand{\small}{\scriptsize}\setlength{\tabcolsep}{3pt}\input{tables/tab_net_area_flows}\endgroup | |
| 827 | +\begingroup\renewcommand{\small}{\scriptsize}\setlength{\tabcolsep}{3pt}\input{tables/tab_net_modularity}\endgroup | |
| 828 | +\begingroup\scriptsize\setlength{\tabcolsep}{3pt}\input{tables/tab_net_category_to_ai}\endgroup | |
| 649 | 829 | |
| 650 | 830 | \section{The boundary of the database} |
| 651 | 831 | \label{sec:net-boundaries} |
@@ -702,17 +882,31 @@ The protocol states its hypotheses with a direction so that null and opposite re | ||
| 702 | 882 | such. On the evidence of this part, the verdicts are the following, each limited to the component of the |
| 703 | 883 | hypothesis that the available tables test. |
| 704 | 884 | |
| 705 | −H4 (convergence) is not testable in its stated form, which concerns citation flows between areas of the | |
| 706 | −ontology and the modularity of the area network; those statistics await the classification. Its field-level | |
| 707 | −counterpart, the share of computer-science references that cross into other OpenAlex fields, falls through | |
| 708 | −the window with no change of pace at the boundary (Table~\ref{tab:field_flows}, | |
| 709 | −Section~\ref{sec:net-flows-fields}), part of the fall being a mechanical consequence of the corpus | |
| 710 | −boundary; it neither supports nor contradicts the within-field convergence the hypothesis describes. | |
| 711 | − | |
| 712 | −H5 (concentration) has two components. The citation-inequality component is stated for AI categories and is | |
| 713 | −pending; its aggregate counterpart gives a Gini of three-year citations that falls through the baseline and | |
| 714 | −rises for the one complete post-period cohort, a movement dominated by the share of uncited works and by | |
| 715 | −right truncation, and therefore not interpretable as a change in concentration. The venue-concentration | |
| 885 | +H4 (convergence) is supported in direction on both of its components and qualified on both. The share of | |
| 886 | +internal references crossing area boundaries rises in the post period, on the raw aggregate and on the | |
| 887 | +composition-adjusted aggregate alike, and the systems, security and interaction categories the hypothesis | |
| 888 | +names all send a growing share of their references to the AI/ML categories, with the steepest rises for | |
| 889 | +human--computer interaction and software engineering in 2024--2026 rather than at the boundary | |
| 890 | +(Tables~\ref{tab:net_category_to_ai} and~\ref{tab:net_modularity}). The modularity falls at both the | |
| 891 | +category and the area partition, with post-period means below baseline means, but the fall is a | |
| 892 | +baseline trend that continues at the category level and stops at the area level after 2023; part of it is | |
| 893 | +the growing weight of the most boundary-crossing area among citing works, and all of it depends on where the | |
| 894 | +ontology draws the boundary between machine learning and its application fields | |
| 895 | +(Section~\ref{sec:net-flows-categories}). The field-level counterpart, the share of computer-science | |
| 896 | +references that cross into other OpenAlex fields, falls through the window with no change of pace at the | |
| 897 | +boundary (Table~\ref{tab:field_flows}, Section~\ref{sec:net-flows-fields}), part of the fall being a | |
| 898 | +mechanical consequence of the corpus boundary; convergence within computer science and a narrowing of its | |
| 899 | +references outside computer science are therefore observed together. | |
| 900 | + | |
| 901 | +H5 (concentration) has two components. The citation-inequality component is stated for AI categories, and | |
| 902 | +for the one post-period cohort with a complete window the pooled Gini of the AI/ML categories is above its | |
| 903 | +baseline mean while that of the other categories is below, with most AI/ML categories and a minority of the | |
| 904 | +others above their baseline means and large language models the most unequal category in every year | |
| 905 | +(Tables~\ref{tab:net_category_gini} and~\ref{tab:net_gini_ai_vs_rest}); this is the predicted direction, on | |
| 906 | +one cohort affected by right truncation, with the uncited share rising equally in both groups, so the | |
| 907 | +evidence is weak and provisional until the 2024 window closes. The aggregate counterpart gives a Gini of | |
| 908 | +three-year citations that falls through the baseline and rises for that same cohort, a movement dominated by | |
| 909 | +the share of uncited works and by truncation, and not interpretable as a change in concentration. The venue-concentration | |
| 716 | 910 | component predicted a stable or lower index once preprints are treated separately; the index with arXiv |
| 717 | 911 | included rises, for the mechanical reason the protocol anticipated, and the index without the preprint type |
| 718 | 912 | is pending. The non-arXiv venue landscape widens. |
@@ -720,16 +914,24 @@ is pending. The non-arXiv venue landscape widens. | ||
| 720 | 914 | H6 (geography and collaboration) has three components. The international co-authorship share does not |
| 721 | 915 | rise, as predicted, and in fact declines slightly, with a composition explanation that the country shares |
| 722 | 916 | support. The China share rises in the aggregate under both counting conventions, as predicted, but as the |
| 723 | −continuation of a baseline trend, and the category-specific version is pending. The industry share does | |
| 724 | −\emph{not} rise in the aggregate: it peaks in 2021 and declines in every post-period year, which is the | |
| 725 | −opposite of the predicted direction, with the category-specific version pending and with the frontier-level | |
| 726 | −measures of the literature it was drawn from measuring a different object. | |
| 917 | +continuation of a baseline trend; it rises in the AI/ML categories too, by less than in the other categories, | |
| 918 | +so the specificity the hypothesis asserts is not observed, and the categories that define the post period | |
| 919 | +(large language models, foundation models, generative AI) are flat or falling | |
| 920 | +(Tables~\ref{tab:net_category_actors} and~\ref{tab:net_ai_vs_rest}). The industry share does \emph{not} | |
| 921 | +rise in the aggregate: it peaks in 2021 and declines in every post-period year, which is the opposite of the | |
| 922 | +predicted direction; the category-specific version is also opposite, with the AI/ML area losing more company | |
| 923 | +share than the other areas and all of its highest-share categories losing share, part of the decline being | |
| 924 | +the lower affiliation coverage of preprint-heavy categories, and with the frontier-level measures of the | |
| 925 | +literature it was drawn from measuring a different object. | |
| 727 | 926 | |
| 728 | 927 | What the part adds beyond the hypotheses is a set of structural observations that were not predicted and |
| 729 | −that the pending analyses will have to accommodate: the fall in absolute joint output between China and the | |
| 730 | −United States during a period in which both grew; the stability of the institutional hierarchy; the rise of | |
| 731 | −generalist repositories among the largest sources of computer-science records; the steady shift of | |
| 732 | −references toward younger work without acceleration at the boundary; and the record-level artefacts in the | |
| 733 | −most-cited lists, which make any ranking of influential works conditional on an audit that this part has | |
| 734 | −specified but not performed. | |
| 928 | +that the interpretation of Part~IX will have to accommodate: the fall in absolute joint output between China | |
| 929 | +and the United States during a period in which both grew; the stability of the institutional hierarchy; the | |
| 930 | +rise of generalist repositories among the largest sources of computer-science records; the steady shift of | |
| 931 | +references toward younger work without acceleration at the boundary; the asymmetry of the category flows, | |
| 932 | +in which the smaller areas move toward the machine-learning categories while the largest area, perception | |
| 933 | +and interaction, cites itself as much as before; the late timing of the rise in citation of AI work by | |
| 934 | +human--computer interaction and software engineering, two to three years after the boundary; and the | |
| 935 | +record-level artefacts in the most-cited lists, which make any ranking of influential works conditional on | |
| 936 | +an audit that this part has specified but not performed. | |
| 735 | 937 | |
modified
manuscript/sections/part09_results.tex
+84 −0
@@ -941,3 +941,87 @@ and three others (methodological adoption, benchmark proliferation, open-source | ||
| 941 | 941 | feature set (Section~\ref{sec:m-emerging}); the result is therefore a lower bound on what the full framework |
| 942 | 942 | could achieve, and an upper bound on what growth and citation signals alone achieve. \pending{H-4: whether |
| 943 | 943 | to describe the detector as a negative result for RQ10 or as a baseline for the semantic-cluster extension}. |
| 944 | + | |
| 945 | +\section{Validation of the classification} | |
| 946 | +\label{sec:r-validation} | |
| 947 | + | |
| 948 | +Every category-level result of this part is conditional on the rule-based classifier of Part~IV, and the | |
| 949 | +protocol requires its validation on a stratified sample of two thousand works rated independently by two | |
| 950 | +raters, with Cohen's $\kappa$ between the raters, and the precision, recall and F1 of the assignment against | |
| 951 | +each rater and against their consensus, by category (Section~\ref{sec:m-validation}; checkpoint H-2). The | |
| 952 | +ratings of the two raters exist in \texttt{taxonomy/validation/}, but the metrics file | |
| 953 | +\texttt{taxonomy/validation/metrics.json} and the disagreement list had not been produced when this part was | |
| 954 | +written, so the validation cannot be reported here. \pending{taxonomy validation: insert the inter-rater | |
| 955 | +$\kappa$, the overall precision, recall and F1 of the assignment against the consensus, the number of | |
| 956 | +disagreements, and the categories with the lowest F1, from taxonomy/validation/metrics.json and | |
| 957 | +disagreements.csv; the generated Table~\ref{tab:validation} will exist once the file does}. Until then, the | |
| 958 | +reader should weight the category results by the known failure modes of the classifier (Section~\ref{sec:m-classification}): | |
| 959 | +works without an abstract are classified from venue and arXiv category alone, which favours the venue-defined | |
| 960 | +categories; the keyword-defined categories (the AI area, Sustainable Computing, Autonomous Scientific | |
| 961 | +Discovery) are sensitive to vocabulary drift; and the primary category of a multi-label work is decided by a | |
| 962 | +score whose ties are not random. The record-linkage precision estimated on the manually reviewed sample | |
| 963 | +(\LinkagesampleDoiAutoPrecision{} for DOI links, \LinkagesampleTitleYearAutoPrecision{} for title-and-year | |
| 964 | +links; Section~\ref{sec:m-linkprecision}) is the one validation statistic of the corpus that is available, | |
| 965 | +and it bounds the error introduced by linkage rather than by classification. | |
| 966 | + | |
| 967 | +\section{Summary of the hypotheses and of what remains uncertain} | |
| 968 | +\label{sec:r-summary} | |
| 969 | + | |
| 970 | +Table~\ref{tab:p9-hypotheses} collects the verdicts. The table is a reading aid and not a result file; each | |
| 971 | +verdict is argued in the section cited and carries the qualifications stated there. | |
| 972 | + | |
| 973 | +\begin{table}[htbp]\centering | |
| 974 | +\caption{Verdicts on the pre-specified hypotheses on the evidence of this part.} | |
| 975 | +\label{tab:p9-hypotheses} | |
| 976 | +\small | |
| 977 | +\begin{tabular}{p{0.07\textwidth}p{0.36\textwidth}p{0.17\textwidth}p{0.3\textwidth}} | |
| 978 | +\toprule | |
| 979 | +\textbf{H} & \textbf{Clause} & \textbf{Verdict} & \textbf{Where and why} \\ | |
| 980 | +\midrule | |
| 981 | +H1 & Post-period monthly growth rate higher than baseline & supported & Sec.~\ref{sec:r-h1}; slope change ranks first among all candidate dates \\ | |
| 982 | + & Level shift at the boundary not distinguishable from placebo breaks & supported & placebo rank of the level near the bottom; acceleration dated to spring 2022 by Bai--Perron \\ | |
| 983 | + & Growth differences concentrated in a few categories & not supported & Sec.~\ref{sec:r-its-categories}; positive slope change in 37 of 40 categories \\ | |
| 984 | +H2 & AI-category share rises in the post period & supported & Sec.~\ref{sec:r-h2}; driven by the language and generative categories; Deep Learning Architectures falls \\ | |
| 985 | + & A non-AI area declines relatively while growing absolutely & supported & three areas (data and distributed, theory, software) \\ | |
| 986 | +H3 & Bai--Perron break in Oct.\ 2022--June 2023 for LLM, generative AI, agents, AI safety & not supported & Sec.~\ref{sec:r-h3}; all four break before the window (2021--2022) \\ | |
| 987 | + & No break in the window for formal verification, complexity, OS, architecture & opposite (two of four) & complexity and architecture break inside the window; no $p$-value attached to the dates \\ | |
| 988 | +H4 & Cross-area citation shares rise & supported, small & Sec.~\ref{sec:r-h4}; about half composition; Perception area does not rise \\ | |
| 989 | + & Area modularity decreases & supported & monotone through the window, not concentrated at the boundary \\ | |
| 990 | +H5 & Citation Gini higher in post period for AI categories & inconclusive & Sec.~\ref{sec:r-h5}; per-category windows not produced; aggregate movement is a truncation effect \\ | |
| 991 | + & Venue HHI stable or lower & opposite as computed, inconclusive as intended & index without repositories not produced \\ | |
| 992 | +H6 & Industry share rises (AI categories) & opposite (aggregate), inconclusive (AI) & Sec.~\ref{sec:r-h6}; company share peaks in 2021 \\ | |
| 993 | + & China share rises (AI categories) & supported (aggregate), inconclusive (AI) & continuation of a baseline trend \\ | |
| 994 | + & International co-authorship share does not rise & supported & declines from 2020 \\ | |
| 995 | +H7 & arXiv-version share rises & supported & Sec.~\ref{sec:r-h7}; inflated by unmatched recent preprints \\ | |
| 996 | + & Linked-code share rises & inconclusive & not measured \\ | |
| 997 | +H8 & Trained detector AUC above 0.70 and P@50 above 0.40 versus the baseline & not supported & Sec.~\ref{sec:r-h8}; AUC at the threshold, P@50 an order of magnitude below; baseline wins at 24 months \\ | |
| 998 | + & Known-emergence set detected with median lead at least 6 months & supported with reservations & substitute keyword test, baseline rule, ex-post peak \\ | |
| 999 | +\bottomrule | |
| 1000 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 1001 | +\end{table} | |
| 1002 | + | |
| 1003 | +Four sources of uncertainty run through every verdict and are stated here once. The first is right | |
| 1004 | +truncation: the post period ends in an incomplete year, the reference-indexing lag removes a growing share | |
| 1005 | +of references from the most recent cohorts, and every citation-based statistic of 2024 and later is | |
| 1006 | +provisional; the structural-change analysis handles this by truncating at \ItsLastComplete{} and varying the | |
| 1007 | +truncation month, and the citation analysis by reporting only complete windows, but neither device recovers | |
| 1008 | +what the database has not yet indexed. The second is the boundary of the database: the growth of the corpus | |
| 1009 | +in the post period is concentrated in records outside DBLP's curation, and the study cannot separate growth | |
| 1010 | +in computer-science output from growth in OpenAlex's coverage of it \citep{culbert2025openalexcoverage, | |
| 1011 | +alperin2024openalex}; the DBLP-only records of Table~\ref{tab:dblp_only} and the strict core of | |
| 1012 | +\PrismaStrictCoreDblpAndCsPrimary{} works are the instruments for a sensitivity analysis that the current | |
| 1013 | +result files do not yet contain (\pending{macro: structural-change estimates on the strict core, as the | |
| 1014 | +protocol's sensitivity analysis}). The third is the classifier, whose validation is pending and whose | |
| 1015 | +boundaries are fixed in 2026 vocabulary and applied to 2018 works; every category-level and every flow | |
| 1016 | +statistic inherits it, and the semantic measurements that do not depend on it are the ones still to come. | |
| 1017 | +The fourth is the inferential status of the time-series results: the reference date is a marker, the | |
| 1018 | +estimates at it are descriptions of a kink in a series that was already bending, and the placebo and | |
| 1019 | +alternative-date analyses show that the kink is not tied to the month. What the evidence supports is a | |
| 1020 | +multi-year acceleration of the indexed output of computer science, concentrated in share terms in the | |
| 1021 | +language and generative-model categories but present in nearly all of them, accompanied by a modest increase | |
| 1022 | +in the citation traffic from the other areas toward AI and by a reorganisation of the co-classification | |
| 1023 | +structure around the foundation-model categories, and a continuation, without inflection, of the baseline | |
| 1024 | +trends in collaboration, geography and openness. What it does not support is a discrete change at the | |
| 1025 | +reference date in any series examined, a concentration of the acceleration in a few categories, or the | |
| 1026 | +ability of simple growth and citation signals to pick the emerging topics of 2023--2024 with useful | |
| 1027 | +precision. \pending{H-4: the summary reading of this paragraph}. | |
modified
manuscript/tables/TABLES.json
+56 −56
@@ -103,7 +103,7 @@ | ||
| 103 | 103 | "caption": "Fractional output of the fifteen largest countries by year.", |
| 104 | 104 | "label": "tab:countries", |
| 105 | 105 | "sources": [ |
| 106 | − "./results/bibliometrics/countries_yearly.csv" | |
| 106 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/countries_yearly.csv" | |
| 107 | 107 | ], |
| 108 | 108 | "rows": 15 |
| 109 | 109 | }, |
@@ -112,7 +112,7 @@ | ||
| 112 | 112 | "caption": "Structural-change estimates by series: ITS level and slope changes at 2022-12 (HAC p-values), placebo p-values, Bai\u2013Perron (BIC) and PELT break dates.", |
| 113 | 113 | "label": "tab:breaks", |
| 114 | 114 | "sources": [ |
| 115 | − "./results/econometrics/breaks.csv" | |
| 115 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/econometrics/breaks.csv" | |
| 116 | 116 | ], |
| 117 | 117 | "rows": 41 |
| 118 | 118 | }, |
@@ -121,7 +121,7 @@ | ||
| 121 | 121 | "caption": "Out-of-time performance of the emerging-topic detectors at horizon 12 months (test cutoffs 2023-01\u20132024-10).", |
| 122 | 122 | "label": "tab:emerging_h12", |
| 123 | 123 | "sources": [ |
| 124 | − "./results/emerging/metrics_h12.json" | |
| 124 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/emerging/metrics_h12.json" | |
| 125 | 125 | ], |
| 126 | 126 | "rows": 3 |
| 127 | 127 | }, |
@@ -130,7 +130,7 @@ | ||
| 130 | 130 | "caption": "Out-of-time performance of the emerging-topic detectors at horizon 24 months (test cutoffs 2023-01\u20132024-04).", |
| 131 | 131 | "label": "tab:emerging_h24", |
| 132 | 132 | "sources": [ |
| 133 | − "./results/emerging/metrics_h24.json" | |
| 133 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/emerging/metrics_h24.json" | |
| 134 | 134 | ], |
| 135 | 135 | "rows": 3 |
| 136 | 136 | }, |
@@ -139,7 +139,7 @@ | ||
| 139 | 139 | "caption": "Preregistered known-emergence set: detection month, peak-growth month and lead time.", |
| 140 | 140 | "label": "tab:known_set", |
| 141 | 141 | "sources": [ |
| 142 | − "./results/emerging/known_set_lead_times.csv" | |
| 142 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/emerging/known_set_lead_times.csv" | |
| 143 | 143 | ], |
| 144 | 144 | "rows": 12 |
| 145 | 145 | }, |
@@ -148,8 +148,8 @@ | ||
| 148 | 148 | "caption": "Team size and collaboration indicators by publication year (all eligible works; periods of the source file summed).", |
| 149 | 149 | "label": "tab:collaboration", |
| 150 | 150 | "sources": [ |
| 151 | − "./results/bibliometrics/team_size_yearly.csv", | |
| 152 | − "./results/bibliometrics/international_collab_yearly.csv" | |
| 151 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/team_size_yearly.csv", | |
| 152 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/international_collab_yearly.csv" | |
| 153 | 153 | ], |
| 154 | 154 | "rows": 9 |
| 155 | 155 | }, |
@@ -158,7 +158,7 @@ | ||
| 158 | 158 | "caption": "Share of typed affiliations by OpenAlex institution type and year (per cent of affiliation-work pairs).", |
| 159 | 159 | "label": "tab:institution_types", |
| 160 | 160 | "sources": [ |
| 161 | − "./results/bibliometrics/institution_types_yearly.csv" | |
| 161 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/institution_types_yearly.csv" | |
| 162 | 162 | ], |
| 163 | 163 | "rows": 9 |
| 164 | 164 | }, |
@@ -167,7 +167,7 @@ | ||
| 167 | 167 | "caption": "Share of fractional output of the fifteen largest countries by year (per cent).", |
| 168 | 168 | "label": "tab:country_shares", |
| 169 | 169 | "sources": [ |
| 170 | − "./results/bibliometrics/countries_yearly.csv" | |
| 170 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/countries_yearly.csv" | |
| 171 | 171 | ], |
| 172 | 172 | "rows": 15 |
| 173 | 173 | }, |
@@ -176,7 +176,7 @@ | ||
| 176 | 176 | "caption": "Concentration of output across countries by year, and the two largest producers under full counting.", |
| 177 | 177 | "label": "tab:country_concentration", |
| 178 | 178 | "sources": [ |
| 179 | − "./results/bibliometrics/countries_yearly.csv" | |
| 179 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/countries_yearly.csv" | |
| 180 | 180 | ], |
| 181 | 181 | "rows": 9 |
| 182 | 182 | }, |
@@ -185,7 +185,7 @@ | ||
| 185 | 185 | "caption": "The country co-authorship network by period: edges with at least fifty joint works.", |
| 186 | 186 | "label": "tab:country_network", |
| 187 | 187 | "sources": [ |
| 188 | − "./results/bibliometrics/country_pairs_by_period.csv" | |
| 188 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/country_pairs_by_period.csv" | |
| 189 | 189 | ], |
| 190 | 190 | "rows": 2 |
| 191 | 191 | }, |
@@ -194,7 +194,7 @@ | ||
| 194 | 194 | "caption": "The twenty strongest country pairs by period (number of joint works).", |
| 195 | 195 | "label": "tab:country_pairs", |
| 196 | 196 | "sources": [ |
| 197 | − "./results/bibliometrics/country_pairs_by_period.csv" | |
| 197 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/country_pairs_by_period.csv" | |
| 198 | 198 | ], |
| 199 | 199 | "rows": 20 |
| 200 | 200 | }, |
@@ -203,7 +203,7 @@ | ||
| 203 | 203 | "caption": "Institutions with at least two hundred works per period: coverage and concentration (fractional counting).", |
| 204 | 204 | "label": "tab:institution_concentration", |
| 205 | 205 | "sources": [ |
| 206 | − "./results/bibliometrics/top_institutions_by_period.csv" | |
| 206 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/top_institutions_by_period.csv" | |
| 207 | 207 | ], |
| 208 | 208 | "rows": 3 |
| 209 | 209 | }, |
@@ -212,7 +212,7 @@ | ||
| 212 | 212 | "caption": "The twenty-five institutions with the largest fractional output in the post period, with their baseline output.", |
| 213 | 213 | "label": "tab:top_institutions", |
| 214 | 214 | "sources": [ |
| 215 | − "./results/bibliometrics/top_institutions_by_period.csv" | |
| 215 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/top_institutions_by_period.csv" | |
| 216 | 216 | ], |
| 217 | 217 | "rows": 25 |
| 218 | 218 | }, |
@@ -221,7 +221,7 @@ | ||
| 221 | 221 | "caption": "Distribution of works over source types among the listed sources, by period (per cent).", |
| 222 | 222 | "label": "tab:source_types", |
| 223 | 223 | "sources": [ |
| 224 | − "./results/bibliometrics/top_sources_by_period.csv" | |
| 224 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/top_sources_by_period.csv" | |
| 225 | 225 | ], |
| 226 | 226 | "rows": 2 |
| 227 | 227 | }, |
@@ -230,7 +230,7 @@ | ||
| 230 | 230 | "caption": "The twenty largest sources (venues) by period, with OpenAlex source type.", |
| 231 | 231 | "label": "tab:top_sources", |
| 232 | 232 | "sources": [ |
| 233 | − "./results/bibliometrics/top_sources_by_period.csv" | |
| 233 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/top_sources_by_period.csv" | |
| 234 | 234 | ], |
| 235 | 235 | "rows": 20 |
| 236 | 236 | }, |
@@ -239,7 +239,7 @@ | ||
| 239 | 239 | "caption": "Age of cited works by citing year (resolved references of eligible works; corpus version of the result file at generation time).", |
| 240 | 240 | "label": "tab:cited_age", |
| 241 | 241 | "sources": [ |
| 242 | − "./results/graph/cited_age_yearly.csv" | |
| 242 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/cited_age_yearly.csv" | |
| 243 | 243 | ], |
| 244 | 244 | "rows": 9 |
| 245 | 245 | }, |
@@ -248,7 +248,7 @@ | ||
| 248 | 248 | "caption": "The ten most cited works of each publication year by 36-month window citations (c36), with total citations to date.", |
| 249 | 249 | "label": "tab:top_cited", |
| 250 | 250 | "sources": [ |
| 251 | − "./results/bibliometrics/top_cited_by_year.csv" | |
| 251 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/top_cited_by_year.csv" | |
| 252 | 252 | ], |
| 253 | 253 | "rows": 80 |
| 254 | 254 | }, |
@@ -257,7 +257,7 @@ | ||
| 257 | 257 | "caption": "DBLP records of 2018--2026 without an OpenAlex counterpart, by DBLP record type and year.", |
| 258 | 258 | "label": "tab:dblp_only", |
| 259 | 259 | "sources": [ |
| 260 | − "./results/bibliometrics/dblp_only_yearly.csv" | |
| 260 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/dblp_only_yearly.csv" | |
| 261 | 261 | ], |
| 262 | 262 | "rows": 9 |
| 263 | 263 | }, |
@@ -266,7 +266,7 @@ | ||
| 266 | 266 | "caption": "The OpenAlex \\texttt{created\\_date} relative to the publication date, by publication year.", |
| 267 | 267 | "label": "tab:indexing_lag", |
| 268 | 268 | "sources": [ |
| 269 | − "./results/bibliometrics/indexing_lag.csv" | |
| 269 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/indexing_lag.csv" | |
| 270 | 270 | ], |
| 271 | 271 | "rows": 9 |
| 272 | 272 | }, |
@@ -275,7 +275,7 @@ | ||
| 275 | 275 | "caption": "Reference coverage by citing year: declared, resolved, internal and external references of eligible works.", |
| 276 | 276 | "label": "tab:reference_coverage", |
| 277 | 277 | "sources": [ |
| 278 | − "./results/graph/reference_coverage_yearly.csv" | |
| 278 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/reference_coverage_yearly.csv" | |
| 279 | 279 | ], |
| 280 | 280 | "rows": 9 |
| 281 | 281 | }, |
@@ -284,7 +284,7 @@ | ||
| 284 | 284 | "caption": "Destination of the resolved references of eligible works by citing year: inside the corpus, computer science outside it, and the seven largest other OpenAlex fields (per cent of resolved references).", |
| 285 | 285 | "label": "tab:field_flows", |
| 286 | 286 | "sources": [ |
| 287 | − "./results/graph/field_flows_yearly.csv" | |
| 287 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/field_flows_yearly.csv" | |
| 288 | 288 | ], |
| 289 | 289 | "rows": 9 |
| 290 | 290 | }, |
@@ -293,7 +293,7 @@ | ||
| 293 | 293 | "caption": "Citation-flow matrices between the eight areas of the ontology by period: share of each citing area's internal references received by each cited area (per cent).", |
| 294 | 294 | "label": "tab:net_area_flows", |
| 295 | 295 | "sources": [ |
| 296 | − "./results/graph/area_flows_yearly.csv" | |
| 296 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/area_flows_yearly.csv" | |
| 297 | 297 | ], |
| 298 | 298 | "rows": 16 |
| 299 | 299 | }, |
@@ -302,8 +302,8 @@ | ||
| 302 | 302 | "caption": "Modularity of the yearly category citation-flow network at the category and area partitions, the within-category self-share, and the aggregate cross-area share of internal references, raw and composition-adjusted.", |
| 303 | 303 | "label": "tab:net_modularity", |
| 304 | 304 | "sources": [ |
| 305 | − "./results/graph/modularity_yearly.csv", | |
| 306 | − "./results/graph/cross_area_share_yearly.csv" | |
| 305 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/modularity_yearly.csv", | |
| 306 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/cross_area_share_yearly.csv" | |
| 307 | 307 | ], |
| 308 | 308 | "rows": 9 |
| 309 | 309 | }, |
@@ -312,7 +312,7 @@ | ||
| 312 | 312 | "caption": "Share of each category's internal references received by the nine categories of the AI/ML area, by citing year (per cent).", |
| 313 | 313 | "label": "tab:net_category_to_ai", |
| 314 | 314 | "sources": [ |
| 315 | − "./results/graph/category_flows_yearly.csv" | |
| 315 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_flows_yearly.csv" | |
| 316 | 316 | ], |
| 317 | 317 | "rows": 40 |
| 318 | 318 | }, |
@@ -321,7 +321,7 @@ | ||
| 321 | 321 | "caption": "Shares of works with a China-affiliated author, a United States-affiliated author, a company affiliation and authors in at least two countries, by primary category and period (per cent).", |
| 322 | 322 | "label": "tab:net_category_actors", |
| 323 | 323 | "sources": [ |
| 324 | − "./results/bibliometrics/category_actors_yearly.csv" | |
| 324 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/category_actors_yearly.csv" | |
| 325 | 325 | ], |
| 326 | 326 | "rows": 40 |
| 327 | 327 | }, |
@@ -330,7 +330,7 @@ | ||
| 330 | 330 | "caption": "Actor shares of works whose primary category is in the AI/ML area against all other areas, by period (per cent).", |
| 331 | 331 | "label": "tab:net_ai_vs_rest", |
| 332 | 332 | "sources": [ |
| 333 | − "./results/bibliometrics/category_actors_yearly.csv" | |
| 333 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/category_actors_yearly.csv" | |
| 334 | 334 | ], |
| 335 | 335 | "rows": 4 |
| 336 | 336 | }, |
@@ -339,7 +339,7 @@ | ||
| 339 | 339 | "caption": "China-affiliated, company-affiliated and international shares of works by year, AI/ML area against all other areas (per cent).", |
| 340 | 340 | "label": "tab:net_ai_vs_rest_yearly", |
| 341 | 341 | "sources": [ |
| 342 | − "./results/bibliometrics/category_actors_yearly.csv" | |
| 342 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/category_actors_yearly.csv" | |
| 343 | 343 | ], |
| 344 | 344 | "rows": 9 |
| 345 | 345 | }, |
@@ -348,7 +348,7 @@ | ||
| 348 | 348 | "caption": "Gini coefficient of 36-month citations $c^{(36)}$ by primary category and publication year, for years with a complete window; baseline mean, change of the last complete year against it, and share uncited at 36 months in that year.", |
| 349 | 349 | "label": "tab:net_category_gini", |
| 350 | 350 | "sources": [ |
| 351 | − "./results/bibliometrics/category_impact_yearly.csv" | |
| 351 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/category_impact_yearly.csv" | |
| 352 | 352 | ], |
| 353 | 353 | "rows": 40 |
| 354 | 354 | }, |
@@ -357,7 +357,7 @@ | ||
| 357 | 357 | "caption": "Citation inequality and levels at 36 months, AI/ML area against all other areas, by publication year with a complete window.", |
| 358 | 358 | "label": "tab:net_gini_ai_vs_rest", |
| 359 | 359 | "sources": [ |
| 360 | − "./results/bibliometrics/category_impact_yearly.csv" | |
| 360 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/category_impact_yearly.csv" | |
| 361 | 361 | ], |
| 362 | 362 | "rows": 6 |
| 363 | 363 | }, |
@@ -366,7 +366,7 @@ | ||
| 366 | 366 | "caption": "Volume, compound annual growth and corpus share of the nine AI categories, baseline (2018--2022) and post (2023--2025) periods.", |
| 367 | 367 | "label": "tab:ai_growth", |
| 368 | 368 | "sources": [ |
| 369 | − "./results/bibliometrics/cagr_by_category.csv" | |
| 369 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/cagr_by_category.csv" | |
| 370 | 370 | ], |
| 371 | 371 | "rows": 9 |
| 372 | 372 | }, |
@@ -375,7 +375,7 @@ | ||
| 375 | 375 | "caption": "Yearly multi-label counts of the nine AI categories (all period rows summed; 2026 incomplete).", |
| 376 | 376 | "label": "tab:ai_counts", |
| 377 | 377 | "sources": [ |
| 378 | − "./results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv" | |
| 378 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv" | |
| 379 | 379 | ], |
| 380 | 380 | "rows": 9 |
| 381 | 381 | }, |
@@ -384,7 +384,7 @@ | ||
| 384 | 384 | "caption": "Structural change at 30 November 2022 in the nine AI categories: interrupted-time-series level and slope changes, placebo p-values, Bai--Perron and PELT break dates.", |
| 385 | 385 | "label": "tab:ai_breaks", |
| 386 | 386 | "sources": [ |
| 387 | − "./results/econometrics/breaks.csv" | |
| 387 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/econometrics/breaks.csv" | |
| 388 | 388 | ], |
| 389 | 389 | "rows": 9 |
| 390 | 390 | }, |
@@ -393,7 +393,7 @@ | ||
| 393 | 393 | "caption": "Interrupted-time-series level changes of the nine AI categories at the alternative event dates (GPT-3, DALL-E 2, GPT-4, o1).", |
| 394 | 394 | "label": "tab:ai_altdates", |
| 395 | 395 | "sources": [ |
| 396 | − "./results/econometrics/breaks.csv" | |
| 396 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/econometrics/breaks.csv" | |
| 397 | 397 | ], |
| 398 | 398 | "rows": 9 |
| 399 | 399 | }, |
@@ -402,7 +402,7 @@ | ||
| 402 | 402 | "caption": "Destination of the in-corpus references of the nine AI categories in 2019, 2022 and 2025 (per cent of in-corpus references of the citing category).", |
| 403 | 403 | "label": "tab:ai_flows", |
| 404 | 404 | "sources": [ |
| 405 | − "./results/graph/category_flows_yearly.csv" | |
| 405 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_flows_yearly.csv" | |
| 406 | 406 | ], |
| 407 | 407 | "rows": 27 |
| 408 | 408 | }, |
@@ -411,7 +411,7 @@ | ||
| 411 | 411 | "caption": "Specialist screening of the 234 AI/ML landmark candidates: records by primary category and data-quality flag.", |
| 412 | 412 | "label": "tab:ai_landmark_flags", |
| 413 | 413 | "sources": [ |
| 414 | − "./literature_synthesis/agent_E/contributions.csv" | |
| 414 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/agent_E/contributions.csv" | |
| 415 | 415 | ], |
| 416 | 416 | "rows": 9 |
| 417 | 417 | }, |
@@ -420,7 +420,7 @@ | ||
| 420 | 420 | "caption": "Contribution type of the 234 AI/ML landmark candidates by primary category (specialist judgement from abstract or metadata).", |
| 421 | 421 | "label": "tab:ai_contribution_types", |
| 422 | 422 | "sources": [ |
| 423 | − "./literature_synthesis/agent_E/contributions.csv" | |
| 423 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/agent_E/contributions.csv" | |
| 424 | 424 | ], |
| 425 | 425 | "rows": 9 |
| 426 | 426 | }, |
@@ -429,7 +429,7 @@ | ||
| 429 | 429 | "caption": "The 234 AI/ML landmark candidates with the specialist's contribution type and data-quality flag (titles in literature\\_synthesis/agent\\_E/contributions.csv).", |
| 430 | 430 | "label": "tab:ai_landmarks", |
| 431 | 431 | "sources": [ |
| 432 | − "./literature_synthesis/agent_E/contributions.csv" | |
| 432 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/agent_E/contributions.csv" | |
| 433 | 433 | ], |
| 434 | 434 | "rows": 234 |
| 435 | 435 | }, |
@@ -438,7 +438,7 @@ | ||
| 438 | 438 | "caption": "Eligible works in the five security-and-privacy categories by publication year: works carrying the category (all) and works whose primary category it is (prim.).", |
| 439 | 439 | "label": "tab:security_counts", |
| 440 | 440 | "sources": [ |
| 441 | − "./results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv" | |
| 441 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv" | |
| 442 | 442 | ], |
| 443 | 443 | "rows": 9 |
| 444 | 444 | }, |
@@ -447,8 +447,8 @@ | ||
| 447 | 447 | "caption": "Growth and structural-change summary for the five security-and-privacy categories (multi-label counts).", |
| 448 | 448 | "label": "tab:security_summary", |
| 449 | 449 | "sources": [ |
| 450 | − "./results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv", | |
| 451 | − "./results/econometrics/breaks.csv" | |
| 450 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv", | |
| 451 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/econometrics/breaks.csv" | |
| 452 | 452 | ], |
| 453 | 453 | "rows": 5 |
| 454 | 454 | }, |
@@ -457,8 +457,8 @@ | ||
| 457 | 457 | "caption": "Co-classification of security-and-privacy works with the LLM, AI-safety and AI-agents categories, by publication year: number of works carrying both categories and share of the security category's works.", |
| 458 | 458 | "label": "tab:security_llm_cooccurrence", |
| 459 | 459 | "sources": [ |
| 460 | − "./results/graph/category_cooccurrence_yearly.csv", | |
| 461 | − "./results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv" | |
| 460 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_cooccurrence_yearly.csv", | |
| 461 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv" | |
| 462 | 462 | ], |
| 463 | 463 | "rows": 9 |
| 464 | 464 | }, |
@@ -467,7 +467,7 @@ | ||
| 467 | 467 | "caption": "Composition of the automatically selected landmark set of the security-and-privacy area, by category.", |
| 468 | 468 | "label": "tab:security_landmarks", |
| 469 | 469 | "sources": [ |
| 470 | − "./literature_synthesis/landmarks/security_privacy_landmarks.csv" | |
| 470 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/landmarks/security_privacy_landmarks.csv" | |
| 471 | 471 | ], |
| 472 | 472 | "rows": 5 |
| 473 | 473 | }, |
@@ -476,8 +476,8 @@ | ||
| 476 | 476 | "caption": "The systems and infrastructure categories of Part VI: primary-category output, compound annual growth, and structural-change estimates of the monthly log-volume series.", |
| 477 | 477 | "label": "tab:systems_categories", |
| 478 | 478 | "sources": [ |
| 479 | − "./results/bibliometrics/cagr_by_category.csv", | |
| 480 | − "./results/econometrics/breaks.csv" | |
| 479 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/cagr_by_category.csv", | |
| 480 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/econometrics/breaks.csv" | |
| 481 | 481 | ], |
| 482 | 482 | "rows": 11 |
| 483 | 483 | }, |
@@ -486,7 +486,7 @@ | ||
| 486 | 486 | "caption": "Eligible works in the six theory and software categories by publication year: works carrying the category (all) and works whose primary category it is (prim.).", |
| 487 | 487 | "label": "tab:theory_counts", |
| 488 | 488 | "sources": [ |
| 489 | − "./results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv" | |
| 489 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv" | |
| 490 | 490 | ], |
| 491 | 491 | "rows": 9 |
| 492 | 492 | }, |
@@ -495,8 +495,8 @@ | ||
| 495 | 495 | "caption": "Growth and structural-change summary for the six theory and software categories (multi-label counts).", |
| 496 | 496 | "label": "tab:theory_summary", |
| 497 | 497 | "sources": [ |
| 498 | − "./results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv", | |
| 499 | − "./results/econometrics/breaks.csv" | |
| 498 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv", | |
| 499 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/econometrics/breaks.csv" | |
| 500 | 500 | ], |
| 501 | 501 | "rows": 6 |
| 502 | 502 | }, |
@@ -505,8 +505,8 @@ | ||
| 505 | 505 | "caption": "Co-classification of theory and software works with the LLM category, by publication year: number of works carrying both categories and share of the category's multi-label count.", |
| 506 | 506 | "label": "tab:theory_llm_cooccurrence", |
| 507 | 507 | "sources": [ |
| 508 | − "./results/graph/category_cooccurrence_yearly.csv", | |
| 509 | − "./results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv" | |
| 508 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_cooccurrence_yearly.csv", | |
| 509 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv" | |
| 510 | 510 | ], |
| 511 | 511 | "rows": 9 |
| 512 | 512 | }, |
@@ -515,9 +515,9 @@ | ||
| 515 | 515 | "caption": "Specialist audit of the automatically selected landmark candidates of the theory and software areas, by verdict and primary category.", |
| 516 | 516 | "label": "tab:theory_landmark_audit", |
| 517 | 517 | "sources": [ |
| 518 | − "./literature_synthesis/agent_G/contributions.csv", | |
| 519 | − "./literature_synthesis/landmarks/theory_landmarks.csv", | |
| 520 | − "./literature_synthesis/landmarks/software_pl_landmarks.csv" | |
| 518 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/agent_G/contributions.csv", | |
| 519 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/landmarks/theory_landmarks.csv", | |
| 520 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/landmarks/software_pl_landmarks.csv" | |
| 521 | 521 | ], |
| 522 | 522 | "rows": 9 |
| 523 | 523 | }, |
@@ -526,7 +526,7 @@ | ||
| 526 | 526 | "caption": "Landmark candidates of the theory and software areas retained as in-scope research or survey contributions, with the contribution type judged from the abstract or metadata.", |
| 527 | 527 | "label": "tab:theory_landmarks_discussed", |
| 528 | 528 | "sources": [ |
| 529 | − "./literature_synthesis/agent_G/contributions.csv" | |
| 529 | + "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/agent_G/contributions.csv" | |
| 530 | 530 | ], |
| 531 | 531 | "rows": 37 |
| 532 | 532 | } |
modified
manuscript/tables/tab_ai_altdates.tex
+2 −2
@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/econometrics/breaks.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/econometrics/breaks.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Interrupted-time-series level changes of the nine AI categories at the alternative event dates (GPT-3, DALL-E 2, GPT-4, o1).}\label{tab:ai_altdates} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr} |
| 5 | 5 | \toprule |
| 6 | −\textbf{Category} & \textbf{GPT-3 (2020-06)} & \textbf{p} & \textbf{DALL-E 2 (2022-05)} & \textbf{p } & \textbf{GPT-4 (2023-04)} & \textbf{p } & \textbf{o1 (2024-09)} & \textbf{p } \\ | |
| 6 | +\textbf{Category} & \textbf{GPT-3 (2020-06)} & \textbf{p} & \textbf{DALL-E 2 (2022-05)} & \textbf{p } & \textbf{GPT-4 (2023-04)} & \textbf{p } & \textbf{o1 (2024-10)} & \textbf{p } \\ | |
| 7 | 7 | \midrule |
| 8 | 8 | LLM & -0.380 & 0.007 & -0.182 & 0.002 & 0.236 & 0.002 & 0.457 & 0.001 \\ |
| 9 | 9 | Foundation & -0.164 & 0.049 & -0.221 & 0.002 & 0.023 & 0.756 & 0.084 & 0.173 \\ |
modified
manuscript/tables/tab_ai_breaks.tex
+1 −1
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/econometrics/breaks.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/econometrics/breaks.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Structural change at 30 November 2022 in the nine AI categories: interrupted-time-series level and slope changes, placebo p-values, Bai--Perron and PELT break dates.}\label{tab:ai_breaks} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr} |
modified
manuscript/tables/tab_ai_contribution_types.tex
+1 −1
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./literature_synthesis/agent_E/contributions.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/agent_E/contributions.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Contribution type of the 234 AI/ML landmark candidates by primary category (specialist judgement from abstract or metadata).}\label{tab:ai_contribution_types} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrr} |
modified
manuscript/tables/tab_ai_counts.tex
+1 −1
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Yearly multi-label counts of the nine AI categories (all period rows summed; 2026 incomplete).}\label{tab:ai_counts} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr} |
modified
manuscript/tables/tab_ai_flows.tex
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@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/graph/category_flows_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_flows_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{longtable}{lrrrrrrrrr} |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Destination of the in-corpus references of the nine AI categories in 2019, 2022 and 2025 (per cent of in-corpus references of the citing category).}\label{tab:ai_flows}\\ |
| 4 | 4 | \toprule |
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manuscript/tables/tab_ai_growth.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/cagr_by_category.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/cagr_by_category.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Volume, compound annual growth and corpus share of the nine AI categories, baseline (2018--2022) and post (2023--2025) periods.}\label{tab:ai_growth} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_ai_landmark_flags.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./literature_synthesis/agent_E/contributions.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/agent_E/contributions.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Specialist screening of the 234 AI/ML landmark candidates: records by primary category and data-quality flag.}\label{tab:ai_landmark_flags} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_ai_landmarks.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./literature_synthesis/agent_E/contributions.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/agent_E/contributions.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{longtable}{lrrrrrrr} |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{The 234 AI/ML landmark candidates with the specialist's contribution type and data-quality flag (titles in literature\_synthesis/agent\_E/contributions.csv).}\label{tab:ai_landmarks}\\ |
| 4 | 4 | \toprule |
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manuscript/tables/tab_breaks.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/econometrics/breaks.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/econometrics/breaks.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{longtable}{lrrrrrrrr} |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Structural-change estimates by series: ITS level and slope changes at 2022-12 (HAC p-values), placebo p-values, Bai–Perron (BIC) and PELT break dates.}\label{tab:breaks}\\ |
| 4 | 4 | \toprule |
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manuscript/tables/tab_cited_age.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/graph/cited_age_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/cited_age_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Age of cited works by citing year (resolved references of eligible works; corpus version of the result file at generation time).}\label{tab:cited_age} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_collaboration.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/team_size_yearly.csv, ./results/bibliometrics/international_collab_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/team_size_yearly.csv, /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/international_collab_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Team size and collaboration indicators by publication year (all eligible works; periods of the source file summed).}\label{tab:collaboration} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_countries.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/countries_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/countries_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Fractional output of the fifteen largest countries by year.}\label{tab:countries} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_country_concentration.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/countries_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/countries_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Concentration of output across countries by year, and the two largest producers under full counting.}\label{tab:country_concentration} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_country_network.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/country_pairs_by_period.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/country_pairs_by_period.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{The country co-authorship network by period: edges with at least fifty joint works.}\label{tab:country_network} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_country_pairs.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/country_pairs_by_period.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/country_pairs_by_period.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{The twenty strongest country pairs by period (number of joint works).}\label{tab:country_pairs} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_country_shares.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/countries_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/countries_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Share of fractional output of the fifteen largest countries by year (per cent).}\label{tab:country_shares} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_dblp_only.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/dblp_only_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/dblp_only_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{DBLP records of 2018--2026 without an OpenAlex counterpart, by DBLP record type and year.}\label{tab:dblp_only} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_emerging_h12.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/emerging/metrics_h12.json | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/emerging/metrics_h12.json | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Out-of-time performance of the emerging-topic detectors at horizon 12 months (test cutoffs 2023-01–2024-10).}\label{tab:emerging_h12} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_emerging_h24.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/emerging/metrics_h24.json | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/emerging/metrics_h24.json | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Out-of-time performance of the emerging-topic detectors at horizon 24 months (test cutoffs 2023-01–2024-04).}\label{tab:emerging_h24} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_field_flows.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/graph/field_flows_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/field_flows_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Destination of the resolved references of eligible works by citing year: inside the corpus, computer science outside it, and the seven largest other OpenAlex fields (per cent of resolved references).}\label{tab:field_flows} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_indexing_lag.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/indexing_lag.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/indexing_lag.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{The OpenAlex \texttt{created\_date} relative to the publication date, by publication year.}\label{tab:indexing_lag} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_institution_concentration.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/top_institutions_by_period.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/top_institutions_by_period.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Institutions with at least two hundred works per period: coverage and concentration (fractional counting).}\label{tab:institution_concentration} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_institution_types.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/institution_types_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/institution_types_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Share of typed affiliations by OpenAlex institution type and year (per cent of affiliation-work pairs).}\label{tab:institution_types} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_known_set.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/emerging/known_set_lead_times.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/emerging/known_set_lead_times.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Preregistered known-emergence set: detection month, peak-growth month and lead time.}\label{tab:known_set} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_net_ai_vs_rest.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/category_actors_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/category_actors_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Actor shares of works whose primary category is in the AI/ML area against all other areas, by period (per cent).}\label{tab:net_ai_vs_rest} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_net_ai_vs_rest_yearly.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/category_actors_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/category_actors_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{China-affiliated, company-affiliated and international shares of works by year, AI/ML area against all other areas (per cent).}\label{tab:net_ai_vs_rest_yearly} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_net_area_flows.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/graph/area_flows_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/area_flows_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Citation-flow matrices between the eight areas of the ontology by period: share of each citing area's internal references received by each cited area (per cent).}\label{tab:net_area_flows} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_net_category_actors.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/category_actors_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/category_actors_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{longtable}{lrrrrrrrrrr} |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Shares of works with a China-affiliated author, a United States-affiliated author, a company affiliation and authors in at least two countries, by primary category and period (per cent).}\label{tab:net_category_actors}\\ |
| 4 | 4 | \toprule |
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manuscript/tables/tab_net_category_gini.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/category_impact_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/category_impact_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{longtable}{lrrrrrrrrr} |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Gini coefficient of 36-month citations $c^{(36)}$ by primary category and publication year, for years with a complete window; baseline mean, change of the last complete year against it, and share uncited at 36 months in that year.}\label{tab:net_category_gini}\\ |
| 4 | 4 | \toprule |
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manuscript/tables/tab_net_category_to_ai.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/graph/category_flows_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_flows_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{longtable}{lrrrrrrrrrr} |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Share of each category's internal references received by the nine categories of the AI/ML area, by citing year (per cent).}\label{tab:net_category_to_ai}\\ |
| 4 | 4 | \toprule |
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manuscript/tables/tab_net_gini_ai_vs_rest.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/category_impact_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/category_impact_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Citation inequality and levels at 36 months, AI/ML area against all other areas, by publication year with a complete window.}\label{tab:net_gini_ai_vs_rest} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_net_modularity.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/graph/modularity_yearly.csv, ./results/graph/cross_area_share_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/modularity_yearly.csv, /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/cross_area_share_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Modularity of the yearly category citation-flow network at the category and area partitions, the within-category self-share, and the aggregate cross-area share of internal references, raw and composition-adjusted.}\label{tab:net_modularity} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_reference_coverage.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/graph/reference_coverage_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/reference_coverage_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Reference coverage by citing year: declared, resolved, internal and external references of eligible works.}\label{tab:reference_coverage} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_security_counts.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{longtable}{lrrrrrrrrrr} |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Eligible works in the five security-and-privacy categories by publication year: works carrying the category (all) and works whose primary category it is (prim.).}\label{tab:security_counts}\\ |
| 4 | 4 | \toprule |
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manuscript/tables/tab_security_landmarks.tex
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@@ -1,15 +1,15 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./literature_synthesis/landmarks/security_privacy_landmarks.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/landmarks/security_privacy_landmarks.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Composition of the automatically selected landmark set of the security-and-privacy area, by category.}\label{tab:security_landmarks} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr} |
| 5 | 5 | \toprule |
| 6 | 6 | \textbf{Category} & \textbf{Works} & \textbf{Post-period} & \textbf{Dated 2026} & \textbf{Articles} & \textbf{Conf.} & \textbf{Preprints} & \textbf{Grey} & \textbf{Abstract} & \textbf{No DOI} \\ |
| 7 | 7 | \midrule |
| 8 | −Cybersecurity & 25 & 16 & 9 & 13 & 1 & 1 & 10 & 20 & 5 \\ | |
| 9 | −Applied cryptography & 25 & 15 & 8 & 11 & 2 & 0 & 12 & 18 & 1 \\ | |
| 10 | −Blockchain systems & 25 & 6 & 2 & 14 & 1 & 5 & 5 & 19 & 0 \\ | |
| 11 | −Privacy-preserving computation & 25 & 14 & 8 & 16 & 3 & 1 & 5 & 21 & 1 \\ | |
| 12 | −Federated learning & 25 & 15 & 6 & 18 & 4 & 0 & 3 & 14 & 2 \\ | |
| 8 | +Cybersecurity & 25 & 12 & 3 & 10 & 2 & 1 & 12 & 21 & 7 \\ | |
| 9 | +Applied cryptography & 25 & 11 & 5 & 13 & 1 & 0 & 11 & 19 & 1 \\ | |
| 10 | +Blockchain systems & 25 & 6 & 1 & 15 & 0 & 3 & 7 & 20 & 0 \\ | |
| 11 | +Privacy-preserving computation & 25 & 12 & 6 & 16 & 3 & 1 & 5 & 22 & 2 \\ | |
| 12 | +Federated learning & 25 & 15 & 6 & 18 & 5 & 0 & 2 & 15 & 2 \\ | |
| 13 | 13 | \bottomrule |
| 14 | 14 | \end{tabular} |
| 15 | 15 | \begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item Landmarks are the works with the highest field-normalised 36-month citation score (NCS36; 2025--2026 works ranked by 12-month citations) within each primary category, with a floor of fifteen per category, plus the 200 most cited works of the corpus overall (\texttt{literature\_synthesis/select\_landmarks.py}). Grey = dissertations, reports, book chapters and books as typed by OpenAlex. Abstract = works whose abstract is available in the metadata; the synthesis of Part VII reads these abstracts only, never full texts. The set is flagged for principal-investigator review; Part VII documents the records that are duplicates, misdated or misclassified.\end{tablenotes} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_security_llm_cooccurrence.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/graph/category_cooccurrence_yearly.csv, ./results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_cooccurrence_yearly.csv, /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{longtable}{lrrrrrrrrrrrrrr} |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Co-classification of security-and-privacy works with the LLM, AI-safety and AI-agents categories, by publication year: number of works carrying both categories and share of the security category's works.}\label{tab:security_llm_cooccurrence}\\ |
| 4 | 4 | \toprule |
modified
manuscript/tables/tab_security_summary.tex
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@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv, ./results/econometrics/breaks.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv, /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/econometrics/breaks.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Growth and structural-change summary for the five security-and-privacy categories (multi-label counts).}\label{tab:security_summary} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrrrr} |
modified
manuscript/tables/tab_source_types.tex
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@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/top_sources_by_period.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/top_sources_by_period.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Distribution of works over source types among the listed sources, by period (per cent).}\label{tab:source_types} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_systems_categories.tex
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@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/bibliometrics/cagr_by_category.csv, ./results/econometrics/breaks.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/bibliometrics/cagr_by_category.csv, /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/econometrics/breaks.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{The systems and infrastructure categories of Part VI: primary-category output, compound annual growth, and structural-change estimates of the monthly log-volume series.}\label{tab:systems_categories} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr} |
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manuscript/tables/tab_theory_counts.tex
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@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{longtable}{lrrrrrrrrrrrr} |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Eligible works in the six theory and software categories by publication year: works carrying the category (all) and works whose primary category it is (prim.).}\label{tab:theory_counts}\\ |
| 4 | 4 | \toprule |
modified
manuscript/tables/tab_theory_landmark_audit.tex
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@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./literature_synthesis/agent_G/contributions.csv, ./literature_synthesis/landmarks/theory_landmarks.csv, ./literature_synthesis/landmarks/software_pl_landmarks.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/agent_G/contributions.csv, /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/landmarks/theory_landmarks.csv, /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/landmarks/software_pl_landmarks.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Specialist audit of the automatically selected landmark candidates of the theory and software areas, by verdict and primary category.}\label{tab:theory_landmark_audit} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr} |
modified
manuscript/tables/tab_theory_landmarks_discussed.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./literature_synthesis/agent_G/contributions.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/literature_synthesis/agent_G/contributions.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{longtable}{lrrrrr} |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Landmark candidates of the theory and software areas retained as in-scope research or survey contributions, with the contribution type judged from the abstract or metadata.}\label{tab:theory_landmarks_discussed}\\ |
| 4 | 4 | \toprule |
modified
manuscript/tables/tab_theory_llm_cooccurrence.tex
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@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ | ||
| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/graph/category_cooccurrence_yearly.csv, ./results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_cooccurrence_yearly.csv, /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{longtable}{lrrrrrrrrrrrr} |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Co-classification of theory and software works with the LLM category, by publication year: number of works carrying both categories and share of the category's multi-label count.}\label{tab:theory_llm_cooccurrence}\\ |
| 4 | 4 | \toprule |
modified
manuscript/tables/tab_theory_summary.tex
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| 1 | −% generated by tables/make_tables.py from ./results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv, ./results/econometrics/breaks.csv | |
| 1 | +% generated by tables/make_tables.py from /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/graph/category_counts_yearly.csv, /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/informatique/wp44/results/econometrics/breaks.csv | |
| 2 | 2 | \begin{table}[htbp]\centering\caption{Growth and structural-change summary for the six theory and software categories (multi-label counts).}\label{tab:theory_summary} |
| 3 | 3 | \begin{threeparttable}\small |
| 4 | 4 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrrrr} |