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The target quantity is the approximation error of Campbell-Shiller log-linearized solutions relative to global projection solutions, measured in model moments and predictions.",27 "strategy": "Numerical comparison under calibrated or estimated parameters from published studies. Log-linearized and global (projection/spline) solutions are compared for equity premium, price-dividend volatility, predictability regressions and yield curves.",28 "key_assumptions": [29 "The global projection solution is accurate enough to serve as the benchmark, supported by Euler-error and moment accuracy checks in the appendix.",30 "Parameter values taken from the original studies are representative of the literature."31 ],32 "threats_addressed": [33 "Accuracy of the benchmark solution, via Euler errors and moment convergence.",34 "Dependence of errors on parameter choices, via sensitivity plots over γ, ψ and persistence.",35 "Special case where the SDF is linear (unitary EIS), with closed forms in the appendix."36 ],37 "causal_language_strength": 1,38 "uses_causal_claim": false39 },40 "abstract_moves": {41 "question": {42 "present": false,43 "sentence_index": -144 },45 "gap": {46 "present": false,47 "sentence_index": -148 },49 "method": {50 "present": false,51 "sentence_index": -152 },53 "results": {54 "present": true,55 "sentence_index": 056 },57 "magnitude": {58 "present": false,59 "sentence_index": -160 },61 "contribution": {62 "present": true,63 "sentence_index": 064 }65 },66 "introduction": {67 "moves": [68 {69 "paragraph_index": 0,70 "move": "motivation"71 },72 {73 "paragraph_index": 0,74 "move": "related_literature_positioning"75 },76 {77 "paragraph_index": 0,78 "move": "tension_or_puzzle"79 },80 {81 "paragraph_index": 0,82 "move": "contribution_statement"83 },84 {85 "paragraph_index": 0,86 "move": "preview_of_results"87 },88 {89 "paragraph_index": 1,90 "move": "preview_of_approach"91 },92 {93 "paragraph_index": 1,94 "move": "preview_of_results"95 },96 {97 "paragraph_index": 2,98 "move": "preview_of_results"99 },100 {101 "paragraph_index": 2,102 "move": "policy_or_broader_implication"103 },104 {105 "paragraph_index": 3,106 "move": "preview_of_results"107 },108 {109 "paragraph_index": 3,110 "move": "policy_or_broader_implication"111 },112 {113 "paragraph_index": 3,114 "move": "roadmap"115 }116 ],117 "contribution_paragraph_index": 0,118 "contribution_types": [119 "new_evidence",120 "replication_or_correction"121 ],122 "roadmap_present": true,123 "literature_positioning_location": "inside_introduction"124 },125 "section_roles": [126 {127 "idx": 0,128 "role": "introduction"129 },130 {131 "idx": 1,132 "role": "theory"133 },134 {135 "idx": 2,136 "role": "results"137 },138 {139 "idx": 3,140 "role": "results"141 },142 {143 "idx": 4,144 "role": "conclusion"145 },146 {147 "idx": 5,148 "role": "appendix"149 },150 {151 "idx": 6,152 "role": "appendix"153 },154 {155 "idx": 7,156 "role": "appendix"157 },158 {159 "idx": 8,160 "role": "appendix"161 },162 {163 "idx": 9,164 "role": "appendix"165 },166 {167 "idx": 10,168 "role": "appendix"169 },170 {171 "idx": 11,172 "role": "appendix"173 },174 {175 "idx": 12,176 "role": "appendix"177 },178 {179 "idx": 13,180 "role": "appendix"181 }182 ],183 "results_presentation": {184 "economic_significance_discussed": true,185 "statistical_significance_language": "unclear",186 "magnitude_statements_in_intro": true187 },188 "robustness": {189 "location": "mixed",190 "types": [191 "sensitivity_to_parameters",192 "alternative_specification",193 "other"194 ]195 },196 "tables": {197 "convention_notes": "Tables set annualized moments from the log-linear solution beside the global solution, with relative errors in percent. Parameter values are listed in the notes with page references to the original studies. Euler-error tables report MAE and RMSE. No standard errors are shown because the outputs are numerical.",198 "units_stated_in_notes": true,199 "standard_errors_description": "none"200 },201 "figures": {202 "uncertainty_shown": "no"203 },204 "conclusion": {205 "bounded_claims": true,206 "policy_implications": false,207 "open_questions": false,208 "restates_contribution": true209 },210 "hedging": {211 "level": "low",212 "typical_devices": [213 "modal 'can' for error magnitudes",214 "conditioning on high persistence or parameter regions",215 "noting that lower-persistence models have small errors"216 ]217 },218 "claim_evidence": [219 {220 "claim": "Log-linearization overstates the equity premium by about 100 bps and return predictability by roughly a factor of two in the Bansal-Kiku-Yaron calibration.",221 "evidence_type": "table",222 "evidence_ref": "Table V, Table VI"223 },224 {225 "claim": "Approximation errors in moments can exceed 70% at the high-persistence (95% quantile) estimates of Schorfheide-Song-Yaron.",226 "evidence_type": "table",227 "evidence_ref": "Appendix table of annualized moments and errors for Schorfheide, Song, and Yaron (2018); Figure E3"228 },229 {230 "claim": "Nonlinearities stem from highly persistent state processes and their interaction with stochastic volatility.",231 "evidence_type": "figure",232 "evidence_ref": "Figures 1, 2, 6, 7; Table I"233 },234 {235 "claim": "Errors grow with persistence and risk aversion across parameter choices.",236 "evidence_type": "figure",237 "evidence_ref": "Figures 4, 5"238 },239 {240 "claim": "Log-linearization can invert the slope of the nominal yield curve in bond models.",241 "evidence_type": "figure",242 "evidence_ref": "Figures 8, 9"243 },244 {245 "claim": "The projection benchmark is highly accurate, with Euler errors below 4e-9.",246 "evidence_type": "table",247 "evidence_ref": "Table II; Appendix B"248 }249 ],250 "structural_summary": "The paper opens from a landmark model and the standard approximation technique, then asks whether neglected higher-order terms matter. It previews large errors with concrete magnitudes across six published models, closing the introduction with a usage recommendation and a roadmap. A model-framework section is followed by an analysis isolating the sources of nonlinearity (persistence, volatility interaction, the unitary-EIS special case). A model-by-model comparison of moments, predictability and yield curves comes next. The conclusion restates the findings with bounds, noting small errors for low-persistence models. Appendices document solution methods, benchmark accuracy, closed forms and extra figures.",251 "writing_profile_keywords": [252 "numerical accuracy",253 "log-linearization critique",254 "global projection methods",255 "long-run risk",256 "replication of published calibrations",257 "relative error reporting",258 "parameter sensitivity"259 ],260 "confidence": 0.8,261 "notes": "Genre could alternatively be read as theoretical or computational; I classed it as methodological because the core contribution is assessing a solution technique. Sections II and III are tagged theory by the rule, but their content is numerical results comparison. 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