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Asymptotic Newey-West standard errors (two lags) appear in parentheses, and notes state the number of GMM moment restrictions. Fama-MacBeth tables report results by test-asset panel with adjusted R2. Notes specify the CEX tranche used and the sample period.\",\"units_stated_in_notes\":false,\"standard_errors_description\":\"newey_west\"},\"figures\":{\"uncertainty_shown\":\"unclear\"},\"conclusion\":{\"bounded_claims\":true,\"policy_implications\":false,\"open_questions\":false,\"restates_contribution\":true},\"hedging\":{\"level\":\"moderate\",\"typical_devices\":[\"can, in principle\",\"results suggest\",\"fits reasonably well\",\"acknowledgment that estimates are noisy due to measurement error\",\"at least as well as\"]},\"claim_evidence\":[{\"claim\":\"Cross-sectional skewness of household consumption growth is mostly negative and countercyclical, and moderately correlated with recessions\",\"evidence_type\":\"figure\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Figure 1; Table II\"},{\"claim\":\"Moments of household consumption growth are persistent, with positive autocorrelations of the third moment and the fifth percentile\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table I\"},{\"claim\":\"The estimated model matches household cross-sectional moments and asset-price moments with a low EIS\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table III\"},{\"claim\":\"Results are similar over the longer quarterly sample and at annual frequency\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Tables IV, V\"},{\"claim\":\"Recursive preferences are needed to address the equity premium and risk-free rate puzzles\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Tables VI, VII\"},{\"claim\":\"Negative skewness of household shocks is pivotal for fitting the data\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table VIII\"},{\"claim\":\"Household consumption risk prices the cross section of portfolio returns at least as well as the Fama-French factors\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Tables X, XI\"},{\"claim\":\"Rare-disaster calibrations magnify annual consumption declines in an ad hoc way\",\"evidence_type\":\"prior_literature\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Constantinides (2008); Julliard and Ghosh (2012)\"}],\"structural_summary\":\"The introduction motivates the paper with labor-income evidence that the left skewness of idiosyncratic shocks is countercyclical. It positions uninsurable idiosyncratic risk as a paradigm alternative to long-run risks, habit, and disaster models, previews descriptive skewness evidence, and contrasts the approach with related literature. A parsimonious incomplete-market model with recursive preferences and a single state variable is then laid out. Data construction from CRSP and the CEX follows, along with descriptive household consumption statistics. The model is estimated by GMM jointly on aggregate and household moments. Variant estimations then probe sample period, data frequency, preferences, and the shock distribution. A Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional test is presented, and the conclusion restates the findings. Proofs and derivations are placed in appendices.\",\"writing_profile_keywords\":[\"structural GMM\",\"incomplete markets\",\"recursive preferences\",\"household heterogeneity\",\"model-fit tables\",\"paradigm positioning\",\"ablation of model ingredients\",\"Fama-MacBeth\"],\"confidence\":0.8,\"notes\":\"Section V functions as both robustness and ablation analysis. The introduction excerpt shows no explicit roadmap. 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