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They state the dependent variable and its units (percentage points), the geographic level of the experience measure in each column, the fixed effects and controls included, and the clustering level. Significance stars are used, with standard errors shown in parentheses.",194 "units_stated_in_notes": true,195 "standard_errors_description": "clustered"196 },197 "figures": {198 "uncertainty_shown": "unclear"199 },200 "conclusion": {201 "bounded_claims": false,202 "policy_implications": false,203 "open_questions": false,204 "restates_contribution": true205 },206 "hedging": {207 "level": "moderate",208 "typical_devices": [209 "'suggests' for mechanism interpretations",210 "'plausible foundation' and 'one possible explanation' for broader implications",211 "'unlikely to explain' when ruling out alternatives"212 ]213 },214 "claim_evidence": [215 {216 "claim": "Prior-year local house price changes raise expected U.S. house price changes",217 "evidence_type": "table",218 "evidence_ref": "Table II, Figure 1"219 },220 {221 "claim": "Personally experiencing unemployment raises the stated likelihood of higher U.S. unemployment by about 1.44 pp",222 "evidence_type": "table",223 "evidence_ref": "Table VII"224 },225 {226 "claim": "Higher experienced local price volatility is associated with wider expected national price distributions",227 "evidence_type": "table",228 "evidence_ref": "Table VI"229 },230 {231 "claim": "The extent of extrapolation does not depend on how informative local prices are for national prices",232 "evidence_type": "table",233 "evidence_ref": "Tables III, V; Figure 2"234 },235 {236 "claim": "Less sophisticated respondents extrapolate more",237 "evidence_type": "table",238 "evidence_ref": "Tables VIII, X"239 },240 {241 "claim": "Domain-specific experiences do not shift expectations about other aggregate outcomes",242 "evidence_type": "table",243 "evidence_ref": "Table XI"244 },245 {246 "claim": "Elicited expectations predict job loss and attitudes toward housing investment",247 "evidence_type": "table",248 "evidence_ref": "Tables XII, XIII"249 }250 ],251 "structural_summary": "The introduction motivates the paper with prior work on experience-based expectations and poses questions about what counts as a relevant personal experience. It then previews two designs: local house-price variation and within-person job transitions. Data are described next, followed by a framework separating full-information from limited-information interpretations. House-price results come first, covering prior-year effects, informativeness, geographic levels, weighted histories and volatility. Unemployment results follow, then heterogeneity used to adjudicate between mechanisms, then cross-domain expectations, and finally a check that expectations predict outcomes. The conclusion restates the findings and three contributions. Appendices provide a measurement-error simulation, lasso estimation and recall robustness.",252 "writing_profile_keywords": [253 "survey expectations",254 "extrapolation",255 "experience effects",256 "mechanism discrimination",257 "panel within-person variation",258 "heterogeneity by sophistication",259 "house prices",260 "unemployment"261 ],262 "confidence": 0.8,263 "notes": "The abstract does not report magnitudes; the intro reports the 1.44 pp unemployment effect. Figure captions are truncated, so whether figures show uncertainty is unclear. 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