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These condition on cognitive ability, risk tolerance, time preference, education, income, net worth and Big-Five traits. Sibling-group (mother) fixed effects absorb shared family background, and interactions with shocks and parental net worth capture heterogeneity.",28 "key_assumptions": [29 "Conditional on observed abilities, preferences and socioeconomic controls, remaining variation in self-efficacy is not driven by omitted factors that also affect distress",30 "Within-sibling differences in self-efficacy are not correlated with unobserved determinants of delinquency",31 "Self-efficacy is relatively stable over time, so it is not mechanically caused by distress"32 ],33 "threats_addressed": [34 "confounding by cognitive ability and preferences",35 "confounding by education, earnings and net worth",36 "shared parental support (sibling fixed effects)",37 "other personality traits (Big-Five)",38 "higher indebtedness as alternative explanation",39 "optimism and time preferences as alternative hypotheses",40 "sample construction and measurement of self-efficacy"41 ],42 "causal_language_strength": 3,43 "uses_causal_claim": true44 },45 "abstract_moves": {46 "question": {47 "present": true,48 "sentence_index": 049 },50 "gap": {51 "present": false,52 "sentence_index": -153 },54 "method": {55 "present": false,56 "sentence_index": -157 },58 "results": {59 "present": true,60 "sentence_index": 161 },62 "magnitude": {63 "present": false,64 "sentence_index": -165 },66 "contribution": {67 "present": true,68 "sentence_index": 369 }70 },71 "introduction": {72 "moves": [73 {74 "paragraph_index": 0,75 "move": "motivation"76 },77 {78 "paragraph_index": 1,79 "move": "preview_of_approach"80 },81 {82 "paragraph_index": 1,83 "move": "related_literature_positioning"84 },85 {86 "paragraph_index": 1,87 "move": "mechanism_or_theory_sketch"88 },89 {90 "paragraph_index": 2,91 "move": "identification_defense"92 },93 {94 "paragraph_index": 2,95 "move": "robustness_mention"96 },97 {98 "paragraph_index": 3,99 "move": "preview_of_results"100 },101 {102 "paragraph_index": 4,103 "move": "preview_of_results"104 },105 {106 "paragraph_index": 4,107 "move": "other"108 },109 {110 "paragraph_index": 5,111 "move": "related_literature_positioning"112 },113 {114 "paragraph_index": 5,115 "move": "contribution_statement"116 },117 {118 "paragraph_index": 6,119 "move": "related_literature_positioning"120 },121 {122 "paragraph_index": 7,123 "move": "roadmap"124 }125 ],126 "contribution_paragraph_index": 5,127 "contribution_types": [128 "new_evidence"129 ],130 "roadmap_present": true,131 "literature_positioning_location": "inside_introduction"132 },133 "section_roles": [134 {135 "idx": 0,136 "role": "introduction"137 },138 {139 "idx": 1,140 "role": "theory"141 },142 {143 "idx": 2,144 "role": "data"145 },146 {147 "idx": 3,148 "role": "results"149 },150 {151 "idx": 4,152 "role": "robustness"153 },154 {155 "idx": 5,156 "role": "conclusion"157 }158 ],159 "results_presentation": {160 "economic_significance_discussed": true,161 "statistical_significance_language": "stars_and_tstats",162 "magnitude_statements_in_intro": true163 },164 "robustness": {165 "location": "main_text_section",166 "types": [167 "alternative_specification",168 "alternative_measure",169 "subsample",170 "other"171 ]172 },173 "tables": {174 "convention_notes": "Notes open by stating what the table reports, then define the dependent-variable indicators and sample restrictions. Most coefficient tables are linear probability models with standard errors clustered by individual. Self-efficacy enters as a percentile rank. The correlation table marks 5% significance with an asterisk. Robustness tables are organized in panels covering survey weights, person-level collapse and alternative measures.",175 "units_stated_in_notes": true,176 "standard_errors_description": "clustered"177 },178 "figures": {179 "uncertainty_shown": "mixed"180 },181 "conclusion": {182 "bounded_claims": true,183 "policy_implications": true,184 "open_questions": false,185 "restates_contribution": true186 },187 "hedging": {188 "level": "moderate",189 "typical_devices": [190 "predicts/correlated wording alongside effect wording",191 "explicit caveat that relationships may not be causal",192 "'consistent with' framing of mechanism",193 "acknowledgment that omitted variables bias is possible",194 "'appear to' qualifiers"195 ]196 },197 "claim_evidence": [198 {199 "claim": "Higher self-efficacy is associated with lower delinquency on debt and bill payments",200 "evidence_type": "table",201 "evidence_ref": "Table III; Figure 2"202 },203 {204 "claim": "Higher self-efficacy is associated with fewer collections, foreclosures, repossessions and credit-related consequences",205 "evidence_type": "table",206 "evidence_ref": "Tables IV and V"207 },208 {209 "claim": "The negative relation survives sibling-group fixed effects, so shared parental support does not drive it",210 "evidence_type": "table",211 "evidence_ref": "Table VI"212 },213 {214 "claim": "The self-efficacy–default relation is strongest for individuals from the poorest parental backgrounds",215 "evidence_type": "table",216 "evidence_ref": "Table VII"217 },218 {219 "claim": "A one-SD increase in self-efficacy raises the likelihood of emergency savings by about 2 percentage points",220 "evidence_type": "table",221 "evidence_ref": "Table VIII"222 },223 {224 "claim": "Older adults with higher self-efficacy save, plan for retirement and buy long-term care insurance more",225 "evidence_type": "table",226 "evidence_ref": "Table IX"227 },228 {229 "claim": "Low self-efficacy individuals default much more after job loss or illness; high self-efficacy individuals show little increase",230 "evidence_type": "table",231 "evidence_ref": "Table X"232 },233 {234 "claim": "Results are robust to Big-Five traits, optimism, time preferences, survey weights and alternative self-efficacy measures",235 "evidence_type": "table",236 "evidence_ref": "Tables XI and XII"237 },238 {239 "claim": "Self-efficacy is relatively stable over the life course",240 "evidence_type": "prior_literature",241 "evidence_ref": "Gecas (1989); Section II.C"242 }243 ],244 "structural_summary": "The paper motivates the question with intertemporal trade-offs, where perceived effectiveness of costly actions shapes decisions. It then sketches an effort-choice mechanism and previews the approach: survey panel regressions with rich controls and sibling fixed effects. Results are previewed with magnitudes and an explicit non-causality caveat. Positioning is against the cognitive-ability and subjective-expectations literatures, followed by a roadmap. A conceptual section defines and measures self-efficacy, and the data section documents the stability of the measure. Results then proceed from delinquency to its consequences, the parental-support mechanism, preparedness, and shock interactions. A separate section addresses alternative hypotheses and robustness. The conclusion restates the findings and notes that noncognitive skills may be malleable.",245 "writing_profile_keywords": [246 "household finance",247 "noncognitive skills",248 "survey panel data",249 "linear probability models",250 "sibling fixed effects",251 "heterogeneity by shocks",252 "explicit causality caveat",253 "psychology-informed"254 ],255 "confidence": 0.82,256 "notes": "Causal wording ('effects', 'determinant', 'raises') coexists with an explicit caveat that the estimated relationships may not be causal. I therefore coded strength 3. Section IV's rule-based role was 'theory', but its content is alternative hypotheses and robustness. Section I is a conceptual/mechanism section without a formal model and is coded as theory. Magnitudes appear in the introduction but not in the abstract."257 },258 "deterministic_checks": {259 "roadmap_regex": true,260 "contribution_regex_in_intro": true,261 "magnitude_in_abstract": false,262 "abstract_n_sentences": 4,263 "intro_n_paragraphs": 8,264 "intro_n_words": 1267,265 "causal_words_in_abstract": 0,266 "hedge_words_in_abstract": 2,267 "stars_mentioned": false,268 "clustered_se_mentioned": true,269 "internet_appendix_mentioned": false,270 "section_roles_rule": {271 "0": "introduction",272 "1": "other",273 "2": "data",274 "3": "results",275 "4": "theory",276 "5": "conclusion"277 }278 },279 "schema_valid": true,280 "code_version": "feb6c9e-dirty"281}