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Panels split the shipping-cost and weight-to-value sorts. The calibration tables give parameter sources and report simulated moments with Newey-West standard errors.",186 "units_stated_in_notes": true,187 "standard_errors_description": "mixed"188 },189 "figures": {190 "uncertainty_shown": "unclear"191 },192 "conclusion": {193 "bounded_claims": true,194 "policy_implications": false,195 "open_questions": true,196 "restates_contribution": true197 },198 "hedging": {199 "level": "moderate",200 "typical_devices": [201 "suggesting that",202 "can be consistent with",203 "we hope to stimulate",204 "we leave to future research",205 "may help rationalize"206 ]207 },208 "claim_evidence": [209 {210 "claim": "Shipping costs vary substantially across industries, persist over time, and correlate negatively with trade flows",211 "evidence_type": "table",212 "evidence_ref": "Tables I-III"213 },214 {215 "claim": "The long high-SC, short low-SC portfolio earns about -7% per year, and five-factor alphas are large",216 "evidence_type": "table",217 "evidence_ref": "Tables IV-V"218 },219 {220 "claim": "The premium also holds in European stocks",221 "evidence_type": "table",222 "evidence_ref": "Table VI"223 },224 {225 "claim": "No evidence of mispricing from earnings-announcement returns or analyst forecast errors",226 "evidence_type": "table",227 "evidence_ref": "Tables VII-VIII"228 },229 {230 "claim": "The premium is concentrated among small, less profitable firms, which load negatively on Chinese import growth",231 "evidence_type": "table",232 "evidence_ref": "Tables IX-X"233 },234 {235 "claim": "The premium is stronger in industries with high trade elasticity and strong business-stealing effects, as the model predicts",236 "evidence_type": "table",237 "evidence_ref": "Tables XI-XII"238 },239 {240 "claim": "With perfect risk-sharing the model fails; with limited risk-sharing consumption falls after foreign shocks",241 "evidence_type": "figure",242 "evidence_ref": "Figures 1-3, Table XIV"243 }244 ],245 "structural_summary": "The introduction moves from the mixed domestic effects of globalization to an asset-pricing lens. It previews the shipping-cost measure, the portfolio results and robustness, and the displacement interpretation, which it frames as a puzzle. It then sketches the model, previews the calibration outcome, positions the paper in four literatures, and closes with a roadmap. Section I builds the measure and estimates the premium, with robustness and mispricing checks folded into the results. Section II develops and calibrates a Melitz-type model and tests its cross-sectional predictions. A short conclusion restates the findings and leaves alternative frictions to future work.",246 "writing_profile_keywords": [247 "portfolio sorts",248 "risk premium",249 "puzzle framing",250 "trade model with asset prices",251 "calibration",252 "limited risk-sharing",253 "shipping costs proxy"254 ],255 "confidence": 0.8,256 "notes": "The empirical part relies on portfolio sorts with factor alphas; reduced_form_regression is the closest method category. 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