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How standard errors are computed is not visible in the excerpts.",186 "units_stated_in_notes": false,187 "standard_errors_description": "unclear"188 },189 "figures": {190 "uncertainty_shown": "no"191 },192 "conclusion": {193 "bounded_claims": true,194 "policy_implications": false,195 "open_questions": false,196 "restates_contribution": true197 },198 "hedging": {199 "level": "moderate",200 "typical_devices": [201 "consistent with",202 "suggesting",203 "appears to be related",204 "under the plausible assumption",205 "seems unique"206 ]207 },208 "claim_evidence": [209 {210 "claim": "A fund's turnover positively predicts its subsequent benchmark-adjusted return in the time series",211 "evidence_type": "table",212 "evidence_ref": "Table I"213 },214 {215 "claim": "The time-series turnover-performance slope exceeds the cross-sectional slope, as the model predicts",216 "evidence_type": "table",217 "evidence_ref": "Table I"218 },219 {220 "claim": "The relation is stronger for small-stock funds, small funds, and high-fee funds",221 "evidence_type": "table",222 "evidence_ref": "Table II"223 },224 {225 "claim": "Fund turnover comoves strongly across funds, especially among similar funds",226 "evidence_type": "table",227 "evidence_ref": "Table IV, Table V, Figure 1"228 },229 {230 "claim": "Average turnover rises with investor sentiment and return dispersion and falls with market liquidity",231 "evidence_type": "table",232 "evidence_ref": "Table VI, Figure 2"233 },234 {235 "claim": "A one-SD rise in similar funds' average turnover is associated with about 0.43% per year higher performance",236 "evidence_type": "table",237 "evidence_ref": "Table VII"238 },239 {240 "claim": "The model implies a positive time-series turnover-performance relation",241 "evidence_type": "equation_or_proof",242 "evidence_ref": "Section I, equation (11)"243 }244 ],245 "structural_summary": "The paper opens with motivation about active fund skill and immediately sketches the model's intuition. The introduction then previews results (main relation, heterogeneity, commonality, predictive power of peer turnover), offers two model-based interpretations (measurement error and suboptimal trading), and positions the work against three literatures before a roadmap. Section I presents an analytical model of optimal turnover. Section II estimates time-series versus cross-sectional slopes and includes robustness subsections. Section III tests heterogeneity across fund categories. Section IV studies common turnover, its links to mispricing proxies, and its predictive power. The conclusion restates the findings, and the appendices hold the model extension and the econometric and proof derivations.",246 "writing_profile_keywords": [247 "model-then-test",248 "prediction-confirmation framing",249 "time-series vs cross-section",250 "fund fixed effects",251 "mutual fund skill",252 "commonality",253 "mispricing proxies",254 "appendix derivations"255 ],256 "confidence": 0.85,257 "notes": "Results are framed as confirming model predictions rather than as causal estimates. Robustness appears as subsections within Section II (turnover measurement, benchmark models, out-of-sample evidence). The out-of-sample check is mapped to the alternative_sample_period type, which is an approximation. 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