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Figure 3"228 },229 {230 "claim": "Labor-share positively forecasts dividend and consumption growth.",231 "evidence_type": "table",232 "evidence_ref": "Table IV"233 },234 {235 "claim": "The transitory dividend component not tied to income insurance does not explain the slope of dividend risk.",236 "evidence_type": "table",237 "evidence_ref": "Table V"238 },239 {240 "claim": "The calibrated model matches cash-flow moments and standard asset pricing moments.",241 "evidence_type": "table",242 "evidence_ref": "Tables VI, VII, IX"243 },244 {245 "claim": "The model generates downward-sloping dividend strip volatility and premia.",246 "evidence_type": "figure",247 "evidence_ref": "Figure 6"248 }249 ],250 "structural_summary": "The introduction frames a puzzle: leading models imply long-run priced risk, while the data show downward-sloping equity term structures. It poses questions, previews four empirical findings, sketches the income-insurance model, contrasts the paper with competing mechanisms, admits a limitation on interest rates, and gives a roadmap. Section I presents the regression evidence on variance ratios and dividend strips. Section II builds the general equilibrium model. Section III calibrates it and compares asset pricing results with the data. Section IV extends the model to time-varying uncertainty. The conclusion restates the contribution and points to possible extensions.",251 "writing_profile_keywords": [252 "term structure of equity",253 "variance ratios",254 "income insurance",255 "labor-share",256 "dividend strips",257 "general equilibrium calibration",258 "recursive preferences"259 ],260 "confidence": 0.8,261 "notes": "The empirical part precedes the model. Figure 1 shows confidence bands, but the model figures appear not to show uncertainty. Robustness is located within Section I.D. 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