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1{"text": "{\"genre\":\"theoretical\",\"subfield\":\"macro_finance\",\"subfield_secondary\":\"asset_pricing (term structure / monetary policy communication)\",\"primary_method\":\"theoretical_model_analytical\",\"identification\":{\"estimand\":\"not applicable (theoretical model; equilibrium degree of policy-rate adjustment and welfare under discretion vs commitment)\",\"strategy\":\"not applicable; analytical rational-expectations model with private information and volatility-averse central bank, solved numerically for some parameter cases\",\"key_assumptions\":[\"Fed has private information about its long-run target rate\",\"Fed's objective includes bond market volatility (reduced form)\",\"Market forms rational expectations about Fed's adjustment\",\"Discretionary meeting-by-meeting decision making\"],\"threats_addressed\":[],\"causal_language_strength\":1,\"uses_causal_claim\":false},\"abstract_moves\":{\"question\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":0},\"gap\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"method\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":0},\"results\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":1},\"magnitude\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"contribution\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":4}},\"introduction\":{\"moves\":[{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"motivation\"},{\"paragraph_index\":1,\"move\":\"preview_of_approach\"},{\"paragraph_index\":1,\"move\":\"motivation\"},{\"paragraph_index\":1,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"},{\"paragraph_index\":2,\"move\":\"mechanism_or_theory_sketch\"},{\"paragraph_index\":3,\"move\":\"mechanism_or_theory_sketch\"},{\"paragraph_index\":4,\"move\":\"mechanism_or_theory_sketch\"},{\"paragraph_index\":5,\"move\":\"policy_or_broader_implication\"},{\"paragraph_index\":5,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":6,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":6,\"move\":\"contribution_statement\"},{\"paragraph_index\":7,\"move\":\"roadmap\"}],\"contribution_paragraph_index\":6,\"contribution_types\":[\"new_theory_or_model\"],\"roadmap_present\":true,\"literature_positioning_location\":\"inside_introduction\"},\"section_roles\":[{\"idx\":0,\"role\":\"introduction\"},{\"idx\":1,\"role\":\"other\"},{\"idx\":2,\"role\":\"theory\"},{\"idx\":3,\"role\":\"theory\"},{\"idx\":4,\"role\":\"other\"},{\"idx\":5,\"role\":\"conclusion\"},{\"idx\":6,\"role\":\"appendix\"}],\"results_presentation\":{\"economic_significance_discussed\":false,\"statistical_significance_language\":\"unclear\",\"magnitude_statements_in_intro\":false},\"robustness\":{\"location\":\"none_seen\",\"types\":[]},\"tables\":{\"convention_notes\":\"The tables report numerical equilibrium characterizations across parameter grids: volatility aversion and variance ratios, adjustment coefficients with and without commitment, and the optimal appointed-banker aversion. 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Notes define each symbol.\",\"units_stated_in_notes\":false,\"standard_errors_description\":\"none\"},\"figures\":{\"uncertainty_shown\":\"no\"},\"conclusion\":{\"bounded_claims\":true,\"policy_implications\":true,\"open_questions\":true,\"restates_contribution\":true},\"hedging\":{\"level\":\"moderate\",\"typical_devices\":[\"'in our setting' qualifiers\",\"'can help explain' / 'can be valuable'\",\"explicit caveat paragraph disclaiming guidance on transition\",\"'behaves as if' modeling framing\"]},\"claim_evidence\":[{\"claim\":\"FOMC members articulate gradual adjustment toward a target and cite financial market stability as a rationale.\",\"evidence_type\":\"prior_literature\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Section I; Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2012) transcript quotes\"},{\"claim\":\"Attention to financial market terms in FOMC deliberations varies over time and is substantial.\",\"evidence_type\":\"figure\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Figure 1\"},{\"claim\":\"In any rational expectations equilibrium, the policy rate underadjusts relative to the first best.\",\"evidence_type\":\"equation_or_proof\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Section II.B; Appendix proofs\"},{\"claim\":\"For some parameters, Pareto-ranked multiple equilibria arise from feedback between market conjecture and Fed's gradualism.\",\"evidence_type\":\"figure\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Figure 2; Section II.B.2\"},{\"claim\":\"Discretion yields welfare losses vs commitment, and a less market-sensitive appointed central banker improves welfare.\",\"evidence_type\":\"equation_or_proof\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Section II.C; Table I; Appendix proofs\"},{\"claim\":\"In dynamic extensions, private-information shocks are impounded into the policy rate gradually over time.\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Tables IV–V; Section III\"}],\"structural_summary\":\"Opens with an anecdotal motivation about Fed-watching, then introduces a model built on private information and volatility aversion. The introduction sketches the signal-jamming intuition, the commitment problem, and a Rogoff-style remedy, then previews positive and normative results and gives a roadmap. A short section of narrative transcript evidence follows. A static model carries the core propositions on underadjustment, multiple equilibria, and time inconsistency, plus extensions to the objective function and to additional shocks. A dynamic section adds three-period and near-rational versions, followed by a discussion of further applications. 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