1{"text": "{\"genre\":\"empirical\",\"subfield\":\"behavioral_finance\",\"subfield_secondary\":\"asset_pricing\",\"primary_method\":\"reduced_form_regression\",\"identification\":{\"estimand\":\"Effect of the previous trading day's value-weighted earnings surprise of large firms on the announcement return reaction of firms announcing today, holding their own surprise constant\",\"strategy\":\"Panel regressions of announcement-window returns on the prior-day salient surprise. Identification rests on announcement dates being scheduled weeks in advance, which makes announcement sequencing plausibly unrelated to fundamentals. Supplemented by timing tests, long-run reversal tests and tests ruling out information transmission.\",\"key_assumptions\":[\"Announcement dates are set in advance and are not strategically timed relative to other firms' surprises\",\"The prior-day surprise does not carry information relevant to today's announcers\",\"Return predictability reflects mispricing rather than risk compensation\"],\"threats_addressed\":[\"information transmission from earlier announcements\",\"expectational errors versus perception errors\",\"risk changes\",\"trading frictions and capital constraints\",\"strategic timing of announcements\",\"analyst forecast bias or staleness\"],\"causal_language_strength\":4,\"uses_causal_claim\":true},\"abstract_moves\":{\"question\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":0},\"gap\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":1},\"method\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"results\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":2},\"magnitude\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"contribution\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":3}},\"introduction\":{\"moves\":[{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"other\"},{\"paragraph_index\":7,\"move\":\"motivation\"},{\"paragraph_index\":8,\"move\":\"mechanism_or_theory_sketch\"},{\"paragraph_index\":9,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":10,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":11,\"move\":\"identification_defense\"},{\"paragraph_index\":12,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":13,\"move\":\"contribution_statement\"},{\"paragraph_index\":13,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"}],\"contribution_paragraph_index\":13,\"contribution_types\":[\"new_evidence\"],\"roadmap_present\":false,\"literature_positioning_location\":\"inside_introduction\"},\"section_roles\":[{\"idx\":0,\"role\":\"introduction\"},{\"idx\":1,\"role\":\"data\"},{\"idx\":2,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":3,\"role\":\"robustness\"},{\"idx\":4,\"role\":\"robustness\"},{\"idx\":5,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":6,\"role\":\"conclusion\"}],\"results_presentation\":{\"economic_significance_discussed\":true,\"statistical_significance_language\":\"stars_and_tstats\",\"magnitude_statements_in_intro\":true},\"robustness\":{\"location\":\"main_text_section\",\"types\":[\"alternative_measure\",\"subsample\",\"falsification\",\"other\"]},\"tables\":{\"convention_notes\":\"Table notes define variables and return windows and refer back to Table II for definitions. Standard errors are clustered by date and reported in parentheses, with stars marking the 10/5/1% significance levels. Specification differences are described column by column.\",\"units_stated_in_notes\":true,\"standard_errors_description\":\"clustered\"},\"figures\":{\"uncertainty_shown\":\"unclear\"},\"conclusion\":{\"bounded_claims\":true,\"policy_implications\":true,\"open_questions\":true,\"restates_contribution\":true},\"hedging\":{\"level\":\"moderate\",\"typical_devices\":[\"'consistent with' phrasing\",\"'suggestive evidence' for heterogeneity results\",\"'potentially' and 'may' for extrapolation beyond markets\",\"'unlikely to be correlated' in the identification argument\"],\"claim_evidence\":[{\"claim\":\"Announcement returns fall as the prior day's large-firm surprise rises; moving from the worst to the best decile lowers today's return response by about 53 bp\",\"evidence_type\":\"figure\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Figure 1; Table II\"},{\"claim\":\"The effect is a level shift that does not depend on an interaction with today's own surprise\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table III; Figure 3\"},{\"claim\":\"The return distortion reverses within roughly 50 trading days\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table IV\"},{\"claim\":\"A long-short strategy in large firms based on the prior-day surprise earns about 15% per year abnormal return\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table V; Figure 4\"},{\"claim\":\"The prior-day surprise does not predict today's surprises and does not move today's announcers' prices on day t-1\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table VI\"},{\"claim\":\"The results are not explained by risk, trading frictions or strategic timing of announcements\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Tables VII, VIII\"},{\"claim\":\"Only the t-1 surprise matters; t-2, t-3 and lead surprises do not\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table X\"}],\"structural_summary\":\"The paper opens with a literary epigraph and lab evidence on contrast effects, then states the theoretical prediction. It previews the main result with a figure and quantifies it. It argues against information-transmission explanations by previewing the trading-strategy and reversal results, and positions contribution against the limited-attention and expectational-error literatures. The body moves through data, baseline results (reversals, trading strategy), a long section on alternative explanations, robustness to alternative surprise measures, and further exploration of timing, heterogeneity and industry effects. The conclusion restates the finding, argues generality and implications outside finance, and suggests extensions such as habit formation.\",\"writing_profile_keywords\":[\"behavioral bias in the field\",\"epigraph opening\",\"figure-led preview\",\"alternative explanations section\",\"trading strategy\",\"event study returns\",\"lab-to-field contribution\"],\"confidence\":0.85,\"notes\":\"Introduction paragraphs 0-6 are fragments of a Plato epigraph. The 'Further Exploration' section is mapped to the results role. Figure captions in the excerpts do not mention confidence bands, so uncertainty in figures is marked unclear.\"}", "json": null, "model": "claude-opus-5-5", "stop_reason": "end_turn", "latency_s": 17.77, "usage": {"input": 8269, "output": 2130, "cache_read": 3968, "cache_write": 0}, "cost_usd": 0.07647, "request_id": "req_011CggpyixtzBwxJLpmxpdtR", "cached": false, "ts": "2026-11-03T23:02:31+00:00", "effort": "medium"}