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Model-property tables report variance decompositions for alternative parameterizations.",196 "units_stated_in_notes": true,197 "standard_errors_description": "unclear"198 },199 "figures": {200 "uncertainty_shown": "unclear"201 },202 "conclusion": {203 "bounded_claims": true,204 "policy_implications": false,205 "open_questions": false,206 "restates_contribution": true207 },208 "hedging": {209 "level": "moderate",210 "typical_devices": [211 "explicit statements that components cannot be determined reliably",212 "'at least without imposing restrictive assumptions'",213 "'point estimates are consistent with... but uncertainty cannot rule out'",214 "'in the neighborhood of'"215 ]216 },217 "claim_evidence": [218 {219 "claim": "Inflation news variance is roughly 10-20% of quarterly yield shock variance.",220 "evidence_type": "table",221 "evidence_ref": "Table I, Table III"222 },223 {224 "claim": "Low inflation variance ratios hold across monetary regimes and subperiods.",225 "evidence_type": "table",226 "evidence_ref": "Table II"227 },228 {229 "claim": "Yield innovations are more than twice as volatile as inflation news.",230 "evidence_type": "figure",231 "evidence_ref": "Figures 1-4"232 },233 {234 "claim": "Long-run risk models imply variance ratios near one because real-rate news is small.",235 "evidence_type": "figure",236 "evidence_ref": "Figures 7-8, Table V"237 },238 {239 "claim": "Habit formation models fit the documented volatilities somewhat better.",240 "evidence_type": "figure",241 "evidence_ref": "Figure 10"242 },243 {244 "claim": "The data cannot separate real-rate news from term premium news in yield variance.",245 "evidence_type": "table",246 "evidence_ref": "Table IV, Table VI, Figure 11"247 }248 ],249 "structural_summary": "The introduction frames a literature lacking consensus facts and poses one focused question about the inflation share of yield shocks, built on an accounting identity. It previews the low ratio and the inability to split the remainder between real rates and term premia. Section I defines the ratio and its measurement. Section II estimates it with surveys at short horizons and a trend-cycle model at long horizons, including subsamples and a revisit of earlier work. Section III compares the facts with long-run risk, New Keynesian and habit models. Section IV estimates a dynamic model and finds the remaining decomposition is not identified. The brief conclusion restates the robust fact and its use for evaluating models.",250 "writing_profile_keywords": [251 "accounting identity",252 "stylized fact",253 "model evaluation",254 "survey expectations",255 "variance decomposition",256 "candid negative result",257 "single-author voice"258 ],259 "confidence": 0.75,260 "notes": "Several section entries (idx 3-7, 10, 12) are figure-panel artifacts parsed as headings. Significance reporting conventions are not visible in the excerpts. 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