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Notes state the data source and sample period, say moments are annualized, and describe the simulation design (1000 quarterly simulations over 10 or 70 years, averaged). 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It frames the paper as a first-step quantitative benchmark, then sketches the marginal-utility mechanism and previews qualitative, quantitative and counterfactual results. Limitations are candidly listed before the authors position the paper against intensity-based, corporate-default and strategic-default literatures, ending with a roadmap. The body proceeds from an institutional primer on CDS to an equilibrium model and then a calibrated quantitative analysis. That analysis covers moment matching, the mechanism, term structures, dynamics and policy counterfactuals. The conclusion restates the findings and draws hedged policy implications.",239 "writing_profile_keywords": [240 "quantitative macrofinance",241 "calibrated equilibrium model",242 "recursive preferences",243 "sovereign CDS",244 "fiscal limits",245 "first-step framing",246 "candid limitations",247 "policy counterfactuals"248 ],249 "confidence": 0.82,250 "notes": "No regressions are reported, so standard errors appear only in the cross-correlation figures (Figures 4, 5), not in tables. Statistical significance language is therefore marked unclear and table standard errors as none. The long-run sample analysis (Tables VI, VII) serves as a counterfactual, recorded here as an alternative sample period. 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