1{"text": "{\"genre\":\"mixed_theory_empirical\",\"subfield\":\"financial_intermediation_banking\",\"subfield_secondary\":\"international_finance\",\"primary_method\":\"reduced_form_regression\",\"identification\":{\"estimand\":\"Effect of the host-home interest rate differential (IOER rates) on a global bank's foreign-currency loan supply\",\"strategy\":\"Within-borrower and within-syndicate comparison across banks from different currency areas. Borrower-quarter and lender-quarter fixed effects isolate supply responses to IOER differentials. This is complemented by firm-level exposure analysis based on the past share of foreign banks.\",\"key_assumptions\":[\"Borrower-quarter fixed effects absorb time-varying loan demand\",\"Lender-quarter fixed effects absorb home-country shocks to banks\",\"Changes in IOER differentials are not driven by borrower-specific credit conditions\"],\"threats_addressed\":[\"Loan demand confounding\",\"Home-country shocks to bank health (e.g., Japanese banking crisis)\"],\"causal_language_strength\":3,\"uses_causal_claim\":true},\"abstract_moves\":{\"question\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":0},\"gap\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":1},\"method\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":3},\"results\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":2},\"magnitude\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"contribution\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1}},\"introduction\":{\"moves\":[{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"motivation\"},{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"contribution_statement\"},{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"mechanism_or_theory_sketch\"},{\"paragraph_index\":1,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":1,\"move\":\"identification_defense\"},{\"paragraph_index\":2,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":3,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"},{\"paragraph_index\":3,\"move\":\"literature_gap\"},{\"paragraph_index\":4,\"move\":\"roadmap\"}],\"contribution_paragraph_index\":3,\"contribution_types\":[\"new_theory_or_model\",\"new_evidence\"],\"roadmap_present\":true,\"literature_positioning_location\":\"inside_introduction\"},\"section_roles\":[{\"idx\":0,\"role\":\"introduction\"},{\"idx\":1,\"role\":\"theory\"},{\"idx\":2,\"role\":\"data\"},{\"idx\":3,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":4,\"role\":\"conclusion\"}],\"results_presentation\":{\"economic_significance_discussed\":true,\"statistical_significance_language\":\"unclear\",\"magnitude_statements_in_intro\":true},\"robustness\":{\"location\":\"none_seen\",\"types\":[]},\"tables\":{\"convention_notes\":\"Table notes define dependent variables, units of observation (bank×currency×quarter, borrower-lender), and units (USD billions, percentage points, percent). The first table lists IOER rate changes by currency area.\",\"units_stated_in_notes\":true,\"standard_errors_description\":\"unclear\"},\"figures\":{\"uncertainty_shown\":\"unclear\"},\"conclusion\":{\"bounded_claims\":false,\"policy_implications\":false,\"open_questions\":false,\"restates_contribution\":true},\"hedging\":{\"level\":\"low\",\"typical_devices\":[\"'tend to' phrasing\",\"'is associated with' for firm-level magnitudes\",\"model-conditional statements ('if capital constrained')\"]},\"claim_evidence\":[{\"claim\":\"With limited equity, lower domestic rates raise domestic lending and reduce foreign lending\",\"evidence_type\":\"equation_or_proof\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Section I model\"},{\"claim\":\"Introduction of IOER led to a large rise in foreign banks' Fed reserve holdings\",\"evidence_type\":\"figure\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Figure 1\"},{\"claim\":\"A 25bp IOER differential lowers foreign-bank lending probability ~1.6% and volume ~3.6%\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table VII\"},{\"claim\":\"Firms with a larger past share of foreign banks get fewer and smaller loans after home-country easing\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table VIII\"},{\"claim\":\"Bank-level foreign currency lending share responds to the IOER difference\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table VI\"}],\"structural_summary\":\"The introduction motivates the paper with the scale of global bank activity, then claims a first framework linking monetary policy to loan supply across currencies via capital constraints. It previews bank-firm and firm-level results with magnitudes and defends identification through fixed effects. It positions the paper against the internal capital markets literature and closes with a roadmap. A simple analytical model derives testable hypotheses. Data from Call Reports, BIS and DealScan feed results that move from aggregate US and cross-country evidence to bank-, loan- and borrower-level regressions. The conclusion restates that spillovers run opposite to the internal markets view.\",\"writing_profile_keywords\":[\"model-then-test\",\"capital constraint mechanism\",\"syndicated loans\",\"fixed effects identification\",\"cross-border spillovers\",\"contrarian to existing view\"],\"confidence\":0.8,\"notes\":\"Standard error treatment and robustness checks are not visible in the excerpts. Significance conventions are unclear.\"}", "json": {"genre": "mixed_theory_empirical", "subfield": "financial_intermediation_banking", "subfield_secondary": "international_finance", "primary_method": "reduced_form_regression", "identification": {"estimand": "Effect of the host-home interest rate differential (IOER rates) on a global bank's foreign-currency loan supply", "strategy": "Within-borrower and within-syndicate comparison across banks from different currency areas. Borrower-quarter and lender-quarter fixed effects isolate supply responses to IOER differentials. This is complemented by firm-level exposure analysis based on the past share of foreign banks.", "key_assumptions": ["Borrower-quarter fixed effects absorb time-varying loan demand", "Lender-quarter fixed effects absorb home-country shocks to banks", "Changes in IOER differentials are not driven by borrower-specific credit conditions"], "threats_addressed": ["Loan demand confounding", "Home-country shocks to bank health (e.g., Japanese banking crisis)"], "causal_language_strength": 3, "uses_causal_claim": true}, "abstract_moves": {"question": {"present": true, "sentence_index": 0}, "gap": {"present": true, "sentence_index": 1}, "method": {"present": true, "sentence_index": 3}, "results": {"present": true, "sentence_index": 2}, "magnitude": {"present": false, "sentence_index": -1}, "contribution": {"present": false, "sentence_index": -1}}, "introduction": {"moves": [{"paragraph_index": 0, "move": "motivation"}, {"paragraph_index": 0, "move": "contribution_statement"}, {"paragraph_index": 0, "move": "mechanism_or_theory_sketch"}, {"paragraph_index": 1, "move": "preview_of_results"}, {"paragraph_index": 1, "move": "identification_defense"}, {"paragraph_index": 2, "move": "preview_of_results"}, {"paragraph_index": 3, "move": "related_literature_positioning"}, {"paragraph_index": 3, "move": "literature_gap"}, {"paragraph_index": 4, "move": "roadmap"}], "contribution_paragraph_index": 3, "contribution_types": ["new_theory_or_model", "new_evidence"], "roadmap_present": true, "literature_positioning_location": "inside_introduction"}, "section_roles": [{"idx": 0, "role": "introduction"}, {"idx": 1, "role": "theory"}, {"idx": 2, "role": "data"}, {"idx": 3, "role": "results"}, {"idx": 4, "role": "conclusion"}], "results_presentation": {"economic_significance_discussed": true, "statistical_significance_language": "unclear", "magnitude_statements_in_intro": true}, "robustness": {"location": "none_seen", "types": []}, "tables": {"convention_notes": "Table notes define dependent variables, units of observation (bank×currency×quarter, borrower-lender), and units (USD billions, percentage points, percent). The first table lists IOER rate changes by currency area.", "units_stated_in_notes": true, "standard_errors_description": "unclear"}, "figures": {"uncertainty_shown": "unclear"}, "conclusion": {"bounded_claims": false, "policy_implications": false, "open_questions": false, "restates_contribution": true}, "hedging": {"level": "low", "typical_devices": ["'tend to' phrasing", "'is associated with' for firm-level magnitudes", "model-conditional statements ('if capital constrained')"]}, "claim_evidence": [{"claim": "With limited equity, lower domestic rates raise domestic lending and reduce foreign lending", "evidence_type": "equation_or_proof", "evidence_ref": "Section I model"}, {"claim": "Introduction of IOER led to a large rise in foreign banks' Fed reserve holdings", "evidence_type": "figure", "evidence_ref": "Figure 1"}, {"claim": "A 25bp IOER differential lowers foreign-bank lending probability ~1.6% and volume ~3.6%", "evidence_type": "table", "evidence_ref": "Table VII"}, {"claim": "Firms with a larger past share of foreign banks get fewer and smaller loans after home-country easing", "evidence_type": "table", "evidence_ref": "Table VIII"}, {"claim": "Bank-level foreign currency lending share responds to the IOER difference", "evidence_type": "table", "evidence_ref": "Table VI"}], "structural_summary": "The introduction motivates the paper with the scale of global bank activity, then claims a first framework linking monetary policy to loan supply across currencies via capital constraints. It previews bank-firm and firm-level results with magnitudes and defends identification through fixed effects. It positions the paper against the internal capital markets literature and closes with a roadmap. A simple analytical model derives testable hypotheses. Data from Call Reports, BIS and DealScan feed results that move from aggregate US and cross-country evidence to bank-, loan- and borrower-level regressions. The conclusion restates that spillovers run opposite to the internal markets view.", "writing_profile_keywords": ["model-then-test", "capital constraint mechanism", "syndicated loans", "fixed effects identification", "cross-border spillovers", "contrarian to existing view"], "confidence": 0.8, "notes": "Standard error treatment and robustness checks are not visible in the excerpts. Significance conventions are unclear."}, "model": "claude-opus-5-5", "stop_reason": "end_turn", "latency_s": 15.14, "usage": {"input": 6314, "output": 1811, "cache_read": 3968, "cache_write": 0}, "cost_usd": 0.06227, "request_id": "req_011Cggr23eUojpAyvc4DvqGv", "cached": false, "ts": "2026-11-03T23:16:06+00:00", "effort": "medium"}