1{"text": "{\"genre\":\"empirical\",\"subfield\":\"behavioral_finance\",\"subfield_secondary\":\"asset_pricing\",\"primary_method\":\"reduced_form_regression\",\"identification\":{\"estimand\":\"Marginal effect of investors' unrealized returns since purchase on announcement-window selling probability and abnormal volume/returns, conditional on earnings news\",\"strategy\":\"Cox proportional hazard models of fund-manager sales using Ancerno position-level data, controlling for earnings surprise; stock-level OLS regressions of abnormal volume and returns on capital gains overhang interacted with unexpected earnings, with portfolio sorts\",\"key_assumptions\":[\"Trades in short windows around earnings announcements are motivated by the announcements\",\"Proportional hazards assumption holds\",\"CGO proxies the representative investor's unrealized gain/loss position\",\"Controlling for earnings news isolates preference effects from belief shocks\"],\"threats_addressed\":[\"Belief shocks confounding preference-driven selling (controls for earnings surprise)\",\"Violation of proportional hazards assumption\",\"Tax-motivated trading and turn-of-year effects\",\"January-performance explanation for CGO return predictability (Novy-Marx)\",\"Alternative CGO measure (Frazzini)\"],\"causal_language_strength\":3,\"uses_causal_claim\":true},\"abstract_moves\":{\"question\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":0},\"gap\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"method\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":0},\"results\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":1},\"magnitude\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"contribution\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":4}},\"introduction\":{\"moves\":[{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"motivation\"},{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"tension_or_puzzle\"},{\"paragraph_index\":1,\"move\":\"motivation\"},{\"paragraph_index\":1,\"move\":\"preview_of_approach\"},{\"paragraph_index\":2,\"move\":\"preview_of_approach\"},{\"paragraph_index\":3,\"move\":\"preview_of_approach\"},{\"paragraph_index\":3,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":4,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":4,\"move\":\"mechanism_or_theory_sketch\"},{\"paragraph_index\":5,\"move\":\"contribution_statement\"},{\"paragraph_index\":5,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"},{\"paragraph_index\":6,\"move\":\"contribution_statement\"},{\"paragraph_index\":6,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"},{\"paragraph_index\":7,\"move\":\"roadmap\"}],\"contribution_paragraph_index\":5,\"contribution_types\":[\"new_evidence\",\"resolution_of_puzzle\"],\"roadmap_present\":true,\"literature_positioning_location\":\"inside_introduction\"},\"section_roles\":[{\"idx\":0,\"role\":\"introduction\"},{\"idx\":1,\"role\":\"data\"},{\"idx\":2,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":3,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":4,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":5,\"role\":\"conclusion\"},{\"idx\":6,\"role\":\"appendix\"}],\"results_presentation\":{\"economic_significance_discussed\":true,\"statistical_significance_language\":\"unclear\",\"magnitude_statements_in_intro\":true},\"robustness\":{\"location\":\"mixed\",\"types\":[\"alternative_measure\",\"subsample\",\"alternative_specification\",\"other\"]},\"tables\":{\"convention_notes\":\"Notes define the sample and estimator (OLS), refer to the Appendix for variable definitions, state that continuous regressors are ranked into quarterly deciles and scaled, and report significance thresholds for correlations.\",\"units_stated_in_notes\":true,\"standard_errors_description\":\"unclear\"},\"figures\":{\"uncertainty_shown\":\"unclear\"},\"conclusion\":{\"bounded_claims\":true,\"policy_implications\":false,\"open_questions\":true,\"restates_contribution\":true},\"hedging\":{\"level\":\"moderate\",\"typical_devices\":[\"'consistent with' framing\",\"'suggest' verbs\",\"'generally consistent'\",\"ceteris paribus qualifiers\"]},\"claim_evidence\":[{\"claim\":\"Fund managers' marginal selling schedule approximates an inverse V-shape around zero unrealized returns, steeper in the loss domain\",\"evidence_type\":\"figure\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Figure 1, Figure 2\"},{\"claim\":\"Gain-position holders sell more and loss-position holders sell less as earnings news improves\",\"evidence_type\":\"figure\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Figure 3\"},{\"claim\":\"Hazard-of-sale for 22–26% winners is about 1.24 times that of 22–26% losers\",\"evidence_type\":\"figure\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Figure 2\"},{\"claim\":\"Stockholders' CGO moderates abnormal seller-initiated volume around announcements\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table IV\"},{\"claim\":\"CGO is associated with short-window return underreaction to earnings news\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table V, Table VI, Figure 4, Figure 5\"}],\"structural_summary\":\"The introduction motivates the work with a puzzle: preference-based accounts of the disposition effect are questioned by evidence of V-shaped selling. 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