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1{"text": "{\"genre\":\"mixed_theory_empirical\",\"subfield\":\"asset_pricing\",\"subfield_secondary\":\"financial_econometrics\",\"primary_method\":\"theoretical_model_analytical\",\"identification\":{\"estimand\":\"Conditional expected (excess and excess-of-market) returns on individual stocks implied by option-based risk-neutral variances\",\"strategy\":\"Derive a parameter-free formula from the growth-optimal SDF, then test predicted coefficients in pooled and fixed-effects panel forecasting regressions and in out-of-sample R2 comparisons against benchmarks\",\"key_assumptions\":[\"Theoretical conditions linking the growth-optimal return to option-implied variances hold approximately\",\"Option prices accurately measure risk-neutral variance\",\"Bootstrap inference is valid given overlapping observations and cross-sectional correlation\"],\"threats_addressed\":[\"Data snooping / free parameters (formula has none)\",\"Overlapping returns and panel dependence in standard errors (block bootstrap)\",\"Omitted characteristics (beta, size, book-to-market, momentum)\",\"Out-of-sample validity\"],\"causal_language_strength\":1,\"uses_causal_claim\":false},\"abstract_moves\":{\"question\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"gap\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"method\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":0},\"results\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":2},\"magnitude\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"contribution\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":3}},\"introduction\":{\"moves\":[{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"preview_of_approach\"},{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"contribution_statement\"},{\"paragraph_index\":1,\"move\":\"preview_of_approach\"},{\"paragraph_index\":2,\"move\":\"contribution_statement\"},{\"paragraph_index\":2,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"},{\"paragraph_index\":3,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":4,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":5,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":6,\"move\":\"roadmap\"},{\"paragraph_index\":6,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"},{\"paragraph_index\":7,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"},{\"paragraph_index\":8,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"},{\"paragraph_index\":9,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"},{\"paragraph_index\":10,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"}],\"contribution_paragraph_index\":2,\"contribution_types\":[\"new_theory_or_model\",\"new_evidence\",\"new_data_or_measure\"],\"roadmap_present\":true,\"literature_positioning_location\":\"inside_introduction\"},\"section_roles\":[{\"idx\":0,\"role\":\"introduction\"},{\"idx\":1,\"role\":\"theory\"},{\"idx\":2,\"role\":\"data\"},{\"idx\":3,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":4,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":5,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":6,\"role\":\"conclusion\"},{\"idx\":7,\"role\":\"appendix\"},{\"idx\":8,\"role\":\"appendix\"}],\"results_presentation\":{\"economic_significance_discussed\":true,\"statistical_significance_language\":\"unclear\",\"magnitude_statements_in_intro\":false},\"robustness\":{\"location\":\"mixed\",\"types\":[\"subsample\",\"alternative_specification\",\"other\"]},\"tables\":{\"convention_notes\":\"Notes describe the sample (S&P 100/500 firms, monthly data from 1996 to 2014), the regression specification and its panels. 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