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1{2 "validation_errors": [],3 "repairs": [4  "dropped figures.convention_notes_placeholder_removed"5 ],6 "doc_id": "jof_12499",7 "ontology_version": "1.0",8 "prompt_version": "1.0",9 "model": "claude-opus-5-5",10 "effort": "medium",11 "annotated_at": "2026-11-03T23:26:10+00:00",12 "source_sha256": "4b2f62ba52a66448b39539a0d6864e9f14617c2e3e779fcd7b7fc526baca0750",13 "parser": "pymupdf-jof-heuristics-1.3",14 "payload_chars": 24119,15 "usage": {16  "input": 8219,17  "output": 2639,18  "cache_read": 3968,19  "cache_write": 020 },21 "cost_usd": 0.08645,22 "request_id": "req_011CggpaZC8nFHh4jFxnj4se",23 "annotation": {24  "genre": "mixed_theory_empirical",25  "subfield": "international_finance",26  "subfield_secondary": "asset_pricing; macro_finance (monetary policy announcements)",27  "primary_method": "natural_experiment_event_study",28  "identification": {29   "estimand": "Difference in average currency excess returns (vs. USD) on scheduled FOMC announcement days relative to nonannouncement days, and how this difference varies with interest rate differentials, monetary policy uncertainty, and the sign of the policy shock",30   "strategy": "High-frequency event-study comparison of announcement and nonannouncement days. Time-series regressions use an announcement dummy interacted with uncertainty proxies and a monetary policy indicator, with returns split into pre- and postannouncement windows. Results are interpreted through a constrained-financier model.",31   "key_assumptions": [32    "Scheduled FOMC dates are predetermined, so announcement-day timing is exogenous to currency returns",33    "The uncertainty proxies capture market uncertainty about monetary policy",34    "The high-frequency monetary policy indicator measures the policy surprise"35   ],36   "threats_addressed": [37    "Unscheduled meetings excluded",38    "Outliers handled with a truncated sample",39    "Inference checked with bootstrapped standard errors and random sampling",40    "Transaction costs",41    "Other macroeconomic announcements (payroll, CPI, PPI)",42    "Other central bank announcements (Bank of Japan)",43    "Alternative measures of uncertainty"44   ],45   "causal_language_strength": 2,46   "uses_causal_claim": false47  },48  "abstract_moves": {49   "question": {50    "present": false,51    "sentence_index": -152   },53   "gap": {54    "present": false,55    "sentence_index": -156   },57   "method": {58    "present": true,59    "sentence_index": 260   },61   "results": {62    "present": true,63    "sentence_index": 064   },65   "magnitude": {66    "present": false,67    "sentence_index": -168   },69   "contribution": {70    "present": true,71    "sentence_index": 272   }73  },74  "introduction": {75   "moves": [76    {77     "paragraph_index": 0,78     "move": "motivation"79    },80    {81     "paragraph_index": 0,82     "move": "preview_of_results"83    },84    {85     "paragraph_index": 1,86     "move": "preview_of_approach"87    },88    {89     "paragraph_index": 1,90     "move": "preview_of_results"91    },92    {93     "paragraph_index": 2,94     "move": "preview_of_results"95    },96    {97     "paragraph_index": 3,98     "move": "mechanism_or_theory_sketch"99    },100    {101     "paragraph_index": 3,102     "move": "preview_of_results"103    },104    {105     "paragraph_index": 4,106     "move": "preview_of_approach"107    },108    {109     "paragraph_index": 4,110     "move": "preview_of_results"111    },112    {113     "paragraph_index": 5,114     "move": "preview_of_results"115    },116    {117     "paragraph_index": 5,118     "move": "robustness_mention"119    },120    {121     "paragraph_index": 6,122     "move": "contribution_statement"123    },124    {125     "paragraph_index": 6,126     "move": "related_literature_positioning"127    },128    {129     "paragraph_index": 7,130     "move": "related_literature_positioning"131    },132    {133     "paragraph_index": 8,134     "move": "related_literature_positioning"135    },136    {137     "paragraph_index": 8,138     "move": "roadmap"139    }140   ],141   "contribution_paragraph_index": 6,142   "contribution_types": [143    "new_evidence",144    "new_theory_or_model"145   ],146   "roadmap_present": true,147   "literature_positioning_location": "inside_introduction"148  },149  "section_roles": [150   {151    "idx": 0,152    "role": "introduction"153   },154   {155    "idx": 1,156    "role": "theory"157   },158   {159    "idx": 2,160    "role": "data"161   },162   {163    "idx": 3,164    "role": "results"165   },166   {167    "idx": 4,168    "role": "other"169   },170   {171    "idx": 5,172    "role": "other"173   },174   {175    "idx": 6,176    "role": "results"177   },178   {179    "idx": 7,180    "role": "conclusion"181   },182   {183    "idx": 8,184    "role": "appendix"185   }186  ],187  "results_presentation": {188   "economic_significance_discussed": true,189   "statistical_significance_language": "stars_and_tstats",190   "magnitude_statements_in_intro": true191  },192  "robustness": {193   "location": "mixed",194   "types": [195    "alternative_measure",196    "falsification",197    "other",198    "alternative_specification"199   ]200  },201  "tables": {202   "convention_notes": "Table notes define panels (full sample, nonannouncement days, announcement days), the return windows in ET clock times, portfolio labels (pf1–pf3, dol), and regressors such as the announcement dummy and the standardized uncertainty measure (TIV). Summary statistics are reported in daily basis points alongside Sharpe ratios. Regression tables are time-series regressions of portfolio excess returns.",203   "units_stated_in_notes": true,204   "standard_errors_description": "unclear"205  },206  "figures": {207   "uncertainty_shown": "mixed"208  },209  "conclusion": {210   "bounded_claims": true,211   "policy_implications": false,212   "open_questions": false,213   "restates_contribution": true214  },215  "hedging": {216   "level": "moderate",217   "typical_devices": [218    "'we interpret' framing of results through the model",219    "'consistent with / in line with our model'",220    "'associated with' wording for the uncertainty link",221    "'potentially' in the motivation"222   ]223  },224  "claim_evidence": [225   {226    "claim": "Short-USD strategy earns larger excess returns on FOMC announcement days than on other days",227    "evidence_type": "table",228    "evidence_ref": "Table I, Table II, Figure 1"229   },230   {231    "claim": "Announcement-day returns are larger for high interest rate currency portfolios (14.47 vs 1.73 bps)",232    "evidence_type": "table",233    "evidence_ref": "Table II, Table III, Figure 3"234   },235   {236    "claim": "Higher monetary policy uncertainty is associated with higher preannouncement returns",237    "evidence_type": "table",238    "evidence_ref": "Table V, Table IX"239   },240   {241    "claim": "Postannouncement returns are higher after monetary easing than after tightening",242    "evidence_type": "table",243    "evidence_ref": "Table VI, Figure 4"244   },245   {246    "claim": "Conditioning the strategy on the policy stance and interest rate differential raises announcement-day returns from 10.77 to 20.54 bps",247    "evidence_type": "table",248    "evidence_ref": "Table VII"249   },250   {251    "claim": "Volatility does not rise proportionally on announcement days, so Sharpe ratios are higher",252    "evidence_type": "figure",253    "evidence_ref": "Figure 2, Table I"254   },255   {256    "claim": "In the model, monetary policy uncertainty raises currency risk premia, more so for high interest rate currencies",257    "evidence_type": "equation_or_proof",258    "evidence_ref": "Section I, Appendix A"259   }260  ],261  "structural_summary": "The introduction motivates the paper with the importance of FOMC announcements and the size and leverage of currency markets. It then previews a sequence of results with magnitudes: announcement-day excess returns, the interest-differential cross-section, the uncertainty link, the pre/post decomposition, and improved trading strategies. A contribution paragraph contrasts the paper with equity-market announcement work, followed by literature positioning and a roadmap. A Gabaix–Maggiori-style constrained-financier model comes first and generates predictions. Data and empirical sections follow: summary statistics, time-series regressions with announcement dummies interacted with uncertainty and policy-shock measures, trading strategies, other central banks, and an in-text robustness subsection. A brief conclusion restates findings through the model, with proofs in the appendix.",262  "writing_profile_keywords": [263   "announcement-day returns",264   "high-frequency data",265   "model-guided empirics",266   "risk premium interpretation",267   "currency portfolios",268   "trading strategy",269   "robustness battery"270  ],271  "confidence": 0.85,272  "notes": "Sections idx 4–6 are parsing artifacts (currency labels taken as headings); idx 6 actually holds the time-series analysis, trading strategy, other-central-bank, and robustness subsections. The Internet Appendix holds further robustness checks. The standard error type is not visible in the excerpts. In the figures field, the 'convention_notes_placeholder_removed' key is not in the schema and should be dropped."273 },274 "deterministic_checks": {275  "roadmap_regex": true,276  "contribution_regex_in_intro": true,277  "magnitude_in_abstract": false,278  "abstract_n_sentences": 4,279  "intro_n_paragraphs": 9,280  "intro_n_words": 1341,281  "causal_words_in_abstract": 0,282  "hedge_words_in_abstract": 0,283  "stars_mentioned": false,284  "clustered_se_mentioned": false,285  "internet_appendix_mentioned": true,286  "section_roles_rule": {287   "0": "introduction",288   "1": "theory",289   "2": "data",290   "3": "other",291   "4": "other",292   "5": "other",293   "6": "other",294   "7": "conclusion",295   "8": "appendix"296  }297 },298 "schema_valid": true,299 "code_version": "87c73cd-dirty"300}
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