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It then builds a two-agent equilibrium model and calibrates it to the US business cycle, showing that disagreement spikes countercyclically. From the model it derives predictions on return predictability and momentum. Finally, it tests these predictions by setting simulated statistics beside the same statistics computed on empirical proxies, and closes with avenues for future research.",210 "writing_profile_keywords": [211 "equilibrium model",212 "heterogeneous beliefs",213 "disagreement",214 "calibration",215 "model vs. data simulations",216 "time-series momentum",217 "business cycle"218 ],219 "confidence": 0.8,220 "notes": "Theory-led paper with an empirical validation section. Robustness checks are not visible in the excerpts. 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