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It then documents a new survey of mortality beliefs and their salience-based formation. Next, it presents a canonical life-cycle model calibrated to the elicited beliefs and compares its results with an actuarial benchmark, including SMM fit to data and comparison with alternative mechanisms. Reduced-form ordered logit regressions on the survey then validate the model's predictions, with an explicit omitted-variable defense. The conclusion restates the findings, discusses policy relevance and points to general-equilibrium and insurance questions for future work.",238 "writing_profile_keywords": [239 "new survey",240 "subjective expectations",241 "life-cycle calibration",242 "salience",243 "household finance puzzles",244 "model-plus-regression validation",245 "cautious causality"246 ],247 "confidence": 0.8,248 "notes": "Section IV is labeled as validating model predictions; it is assigned the results role. 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