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1{"text": "{\"genre\":\"mixed_theory_empirical\",\"subfield\":\"asset_pricing\",\"subfield_secondary\":\"delegated portfolio management / mutual funds / managerial compensation\",\"primary_method\":\"reduced_form_regression\",\"identification\":{\"estimand\":\"How a fund's mid-year distance from its benchmark affects second-half risk-shifting (relative tracking-error volatility), and whether this differs for managers with versus without performance-based contracts\",\"strategy\":\"Median quantile regressions of the risk adjustment ratio on Distance and excess return. Contract types are hand-collected from SAI filings. Treated funds (performance contracts) are matched to control funds (no performance contracts) on observables. A placebo test randomly reassigns benchmarks.\",\"key_assumptions\":[\"After matching on observables, contract type is uncorrelated with unobservables\",\"The self-designated prospectus benchmark is the relevant compensation benchmark\",\"The ratio of tracking-error volatility captures managerial risk-shifting\"],\"threats_addressed\":[\"selection into contract type on observables\",\"spurious benchmark effects (placebo randomization)\",\"competing flow-performance tournament incentives\",\"managerial ownership, active share and tenure as confounds\",\"alternative risk-shifting measures\"],\"causal_language_strength\":4,\"uses_causal_claim\":true},\"abstract_moves\":{\"question\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"gap\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"method\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":1},\"results\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":2},\"magnitude\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"contribution\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":3}},\"introduction\":{\"moves\":[{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"motivation\"},{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"literature_gap\"},{\"paragraph_index\":1,\"move\":\"mechanism_or_theory_sketch\"},{\"paragraph_index\":1,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"},{\"paragraph_index\":2,\"move\":\"preview_of_approach\"},{\"paragraph_index\":2,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":2,\"move\":\"identification_defense\"},{\"paragraph_index\":3,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":4,\"move\":\"robustness_mention\"},{\"paragraph_index\":4,\"move\":\"contribution_statement\"},{\"paragraph_index\":4,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"},{\"paragraph_index\":5,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"},{\"paragraph_index\":6,\"move\":\"roadmap\"}],\"contribution_paragraph_index\":4,\"contribution_types\":[\"new_evidence\",\"new_data_or_measure\",\"resolution_of_puzzle\"],\"roadmap_present\":true,\"literature_positioning_location\":\"inside_introduction\"},\"section_roles\":[{\"idx\":0,\"role\":\"introduction\"},{\"idx\":1,\"role\":\"theory\"},{\"idx\":2,\"role\":\"data\"},{\"idx\":3,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":4,\"role\":\"conclusion\"},{\"idx\":5,\"role\":\"appendix\"}],\"results_presentation\":{\"economic_significance_discussed\":false,\"statistical_significance_language\":\"unclear\",\"magnitude_statements_in_intro\":false},\"robustness\":{\"location\":\"mixed\",\"types\":[\"placebo\",\"alternative_measure\",\"subsample\",\"alternative_specification\"]},\"tables\":{\"convention_notes\":\"Table notes define dependent variables (risk adjustment ratio as a second-half versus first-half tracking-error volatility ratio) and give the quantile-regression specification. Pooled OLS and median quantile regressions are reported side by side. A bootstrap placebo table summarizes 500 benchmark randomizations.\",\"units_stated_in_notes\":false,\"standard_errors_description\":\"unclear\"},\"figures\":{\"uncertainty_shown\":\"no_figures\"},\"conclusion\":{\"bounded_claims\":true,\"policy_implications\":false,\"open_questions\":true,\"restates_contribution\":true},\"hedging\":{\"level\":\"moderate\",\"typical_devices\":[\"'our results suggest'\",\"stating that the contract and tournament channels are not mutually exclusive\",\"declaring agnosticism on contract optimality\",\"explicitly stating the matching assumption\"],\"typical_devices_note\":null},\"claim_evidence\":[{\"claim\":\"An asymmetric bonus contract is valued like an exchange option whose vega peaks when the portfolio's return is close to the benchmark's\",\"evidence_type\":\"equation_or_proof\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Section I; Appendix A (Margrabe 1978)\"},{\"claim\":\"Funds performing closer to the benchmark at mid-year increase relative risk more in the second half\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table II\"},{\"claim\":\"Risk-shifting is concentrated among funds with a clear compensation benchmark and is absent without performance pay\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table III\"},{\"claim\":\"Matched treated-control comparison supports a causal effect of contracts on risk-shifting\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table IV\"},{\"claim\":\"Manager ownership reduces risk-shifting, active share increases it, and tenure mitigates it; Distance remains important\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table VI\"},{\"claim\":\"Random benchmark assignment does not reproduce the effect\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table VII\"},{\"claim\":\"The contract-based incentive dominates flow-performance tournament incentives\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Section III.G\"}],\"structural_summary\":\"The paper opens with an agency-and-contracting motivation, then sketches an option-based theory of the manager's bonus that predicts a hypothesis, priced in the appendix. After describing the data, one long empirical section moves through baseline quantile regressions, hand-collected contract heterogeneity, a matched-sample causal analysis, cross-sectional moderators, a placebo, a horse race against flow incentives, and robustness checks. A brief conclusion bounds the interpretation.\",\"writing_profile_keywords\":[\"option-pricing hypothesis\",\"quantile regression\",\"hand-collected compensation data\",\"matching for causality\",\"placebo bootstrap\",\"tournament versus contract\"],\"confidence\":0.8,\"notes\":\"The empirical section is a single large section with robustness checks as subsections, so robustness location is coded as mixed. The theory is light: one hypothesis, with an appendix derivation.\"}", "json": {"genre": "mixed_theory_empirical", "subfield": "asset_pricing", "subfield_secondary": "delegated portfolio management / mutual funds / managerial compensation", "primary_method": "reduced_form_regression", "identification": {"estimand": "How a fund's mid-year distance from its benchmark affects second-half risk-shifting (relative tracking-error volatility), and whether this differs for managers with versus without performance-based contracts", "strategy": "Median quantile regressions of the risk adjustment ratio on Distance and excess return. Contract types are hand-collected from SAI filings. Treated funds (performance contracts) are matched to control funds (no performance contracts) on observables. 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