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1{"text": "{\"genre\":\"mixed_theory_empirical\",\"subfield\":\"asset_pricing\",\"subfield_secondary\":\"experimental finance; bond markets / credit risk\",\"primary_method\":\"survey_or_experiment\",\"identification\":{\"estimand\":\"How far experimental IPO and secondary-market bond prices deviate from the equilibrium fundamental value, and whether that deviation shrinks across repeated rounds\",\"strategy\":\"Controlled laboratory experiments with between-subject treatments (decreasing vs. increasing fundamental value path in Experiment I; structural-form model in Experiment II). Independent groups are compared with model-derived equilibrium benchmarks using nonparametric Wilcoxon signed-rank tests.\",\"key_assumptions\":[\"Groups do not interact, so group-level observations are statistically independent\",\"The equilibrium computed from the models is the correct benchmark\",\"Laboratory control isolates the feedback effect from confounds present in field markets\"],\"threats_addressed\":[\"Field confounds such as the unknown link between default risk and IPO price, auction rules, trader set and information, handled through laboratory control\",\"Learning versus initial mispricing, separated by comparing Round 1 with Round 4\"],\"causal_language_strength\":2,\"uses_causal_claim\":false},\"abstract_moves\":{\"question\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":2},\"gap\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":3},\"method\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":4},\"results\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":6},\"magnitude\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"contribution\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":3}},\"introduction\":{\"moves\":[{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"motivation\"},{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"literature_gap\"},{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"contribution_statement\"},{\"paragraph_index\":1,\"move\":\"literature_gap\"},{\"paragraph_index\":2,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"},{\"paragraph_index\":3,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"},{\"paragraph_index\":4,\"move\":\"related_literature_positioning\"}],\"contribution_paragraph_index\":0,\"contribution_types\":[\"new_evidence\",\"new_theory_or_model\"],\"roadmap_present\":false,\"literature_positioning_location\":\"inside_introduction\"},\"section_roles\":[{\"idx\":0,\"role\":\"introduction\"},{\"idx\":1,\"role\":\"theory\"},{\"idx\":2,\"role\":\"empirical_design\"},{\"idx\":3,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":4,\"role\":\"conclusion\"}],\"results_presentation\":{\"economic_significance_discussed\":true,\"statistical_significance_language\":\"p_values\",\"magnitude_statements_in_intro\":false},\"robustness\":{\"location\":\"none_seen\",\"types\":[]},\"tables\":{\"convention_notes\":\"Tables report round-by-round means and medians of IPO prices and of the relative absolute deviation (RAD) and relative deviation (RD) from equilibrium, with equilibrium values given alongside for comparison. Companion tables report p-values from two-sided Wilcoxon signed-rank tests, with each null hypothesis stated in the notes.\",\"units_stated_in_notes\":false,\"standard_errors_description\":\"none\"},\"figures\":{\"uncertainty_shown\":\"no\",\"notes_placeholder_removed\":null},\"conclusion\":{\"bounded_claims\":true,\"policy_implications\":false,\"open_questions\":true,\"restates_contribution\":true},\"hedging\":{\"level\":\"moderate\",\"typical_devices\":[\"'it is likely that' when extrapolating from the lab to the field\",\"conditioning results on subject experience\",\"'a priori unclear' framing of the question\",\"explicit acknowledgment that field tests lack control\"]},\"claim_evidence\":[{\"claim\":\"Subjects learn to set IPO prices close to equilibrium after a few rounds\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Tables I-II, Figure 8\"},{\"claim\":\"Deviations of market prices from fundamentals shrink with experience and bubbles disappear\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Tables III-IV, Figure 7\"},{\"claim\":\"No prior experiment studies bonds whose default probability depends on the IPO price\",\"evidence_type\":\"prior_literature\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Intro paragraphs 1-3; surveys by Bossaerts, Noussair & Tucker, Palan\"},{\"claim\":\"Equilibrium fundamental values and default probabilities follow from the reduced-form and structural models\",\"evidence_type\":\"equation_or_proof\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Section I; Figures 1-2, 5-6\"}],\"structural_summary\":\"The introduction motivates the topic through the feedback from IPO prices to default risk and claims the first experimental study of such assets. It then positions the paper against experimental asset-market work, the contingent-convertible feedback experiment, and research on uniform-price multiunit auctions, without a visible roadmap. Next come two lab-implementable models, reduced-form and structural, with numerically computed equilibria. The two experiments with their treatments are described, followed by results comparing IPO and market prices with equilibrium using nonparametric tests on independent groups. The conclusion restates the convergence finding, suggests implications for experimental methodology, and cautiously extrapolates to field markets.\",\"writing_profile_keywords\":[\"laboratory experiment\",\"feedback effects\",\"equilibrium benchmark\",\"learning across rounds\",\"nonparametric tests\",\"first-study claim\",\"editor-suggested extension\"],\"confidence\":0.8,\"notes\":\"The second experiment and structural model were added at the editors' suggestion, as acknowledged in the text. No explicit robustness section is visible. The figures object includes an extra field that should not be there; it is ignored here.\"}", "json": {"genre": "mixed_theory_empirical", "subfield": "asset_pricing", "subfield_secondary": "experimental finance; bond markets / credit risk", "primary_method": "survey_or_experiment", "identification": {"estimand": "How far experimental IPO and secondary-market bond prices deviate from the equilibrium fundamental value, and whether that deviation shrinks across repeated rounds", "strategy": "Controlled laboratory experiments with between-subject treatments (decreasing vs. increasing fundamental value path in Experiment I; structural-form model in Experiment II). Independent groups are compared with model-derived equilibrium benchmarks using nonparametric Wilcoxon signed-rank tests.", "key_assumptions": ["Groups do not interact, so group-level observations are statistically independent", "The equilibrium computed from the models is the correct benchmark", "Laboratory control isolates the feedback effect from confounds present in field markets"], "threats_addressed": ["Field confounds such as the unknown link between default risk and IPO price, auction rules, trader set and information, handled through laboratory control", "Learning versus initial mispricing, separated by comparing Round 1 with Round 4"], "causal_language_strength": 2, "uses_causal_claim": false}, "abstract_moves": {"question": {"present": true, "sentence_index": 2}, "gap": {"present": true, "sentence_index": 3}, "method": {"present": true, "sentence_index": 4}, "results": {"present": true, "sentence_index": 6}, "magnitude": {"present": false, "sentence_index": -1}, "contribution": {"present": true, "sentence_index": 3}}, "introduction": {"moves": [{"paragraph_index": 0, "move": "motivation"}, {"paragraph_index": 0, "move": "literature_gap"}, {"paragraph_index": 0, "move": "contribution_statement"}, {"paragraph_index": 1, "move": "literature_gap"}, {"paragraph_index": 2, "move": "related_literature_positioning"}, {"paragraph_index": 3, "move": "related_literature_positioning"}, {"paragraph_index": 4, "move": "related_literature_positioning"}], "contribution_paragraph_index": 0, "contribution_types": ["new_evidence", "new_theory_or_model"], "roadmap_present": false, "literature_positioning_location": "inside_introduction"}, "section_roles": [{"idx": 0, "role": "introduction"}, {"idx": 1, "role": "theory"}, {"idx": 2, "role": "empirical_design"}, {"idx": 3, "role": "results"}, {"idx": 4, "role": "conclusion"}], "results_presentation": {"economic_significance_discussed": true, "statistical_significance_language": "p_values", "magnitude_statements_in_intro": false}, "robustness": {"location": "none_seen", "types": []}, "tables": {"convention_notes": "Tables report round-by-round means and medians of IPO prices and of the relative absolute deviation (RAD) and relative deviation (RD) from equilibrium, with equilibrium values given alongside for comparison. 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It then positions the paper against experimental asset-market work, the contingent-convertible feedback experiment, and research on uniform-price multiunit auctions, without a visible roadmap. Next come two lab-implementable models, reduced-form and structural, with numerically computed equilibria. The two experiments with their treatments are described, followed by results comparing IPO and market prices with equilibrium using nonparametric tests on independent groups. The conclusion restates the convergence finding, suggests implications for experimental methodology, and cautiously extrapolates to field markets.", "writing_profile_keywords": ["laboratory experiment", "feedback effects", "equilibrium benchmark", "learning across rounds", "nonparametric tests", "first-study claim", "editor-suggested extension"], "confidence": 0.8, "notes": "The second experiment and structural model were added at the editors' suggestion, as acknowledged in the text. No explicit robustness section is visible. The figures object includes an extra field that should not be there; it is ignored here."}, "model": "claude-opus-5-5", "stop_reason": "end_turn", "latency_s": 17.1, "usage": {"input": 6803, "output": 1938, "cache_read": 3968, "cache_write": 0}, "cost_usd": 0.066766, "request_id": "req_011Cggq2Af3QB3oknBMjycR1", "cached": false, "ts": "2026-11-03T23:03:03+00:00", "effort": "medium"}
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