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1{"text": "{\"genre\":\"empirical\",\"subfield\":\"macro_finance\",\"subfield_secondary\":\"financial_intermediation_banking\",\"primary_method\":\"instrumental_variables\",\"identification\":{\"estimand\":\"Effect of credit supply expansion on nontradable vs. tradable employment, nontradable prices, and later business-cycle amplitude across states and countries\",\"strategy\":\"Cross-state variation in the timing of 1980s US banking deregulation, used as an instrument or exposure score for loading on the 1982-1992 aggregate credit supply cycle. A first stage on leverage is shown. 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Heteroskedasticity-robust SEs appear in parentheses, with +, * and ** marking the 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01 levels. Some notes refer to Internet Appendix tables.\",\"units_stated_in_notes\":true,\"standard_errors_description\":\"robust\"},\"figures\":{\"uncertainty_shown\":\"mixed\"},\"conclusion\":{\"bounded_claims\":true,\"policy_implications\":false,\"open_questions\":false,\"restates_contribution\":true},\"hedging\":{\"level\":\"moderate\",\"typical_devices\":[\"consistent with\",\"could be one reason\",\"may have\",\"suggest\",\"plausibly exogenous\",\"explained in part\"]},\"claim_evidence\":[{\"claim\":\"Earlier deregulation predicts a larger rise in household leverage during 1982-1989 (first stage)\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Tables III-IV, Figure 4\"},{\"claim\":\"Early-deregulation states saw relative nontradable employment growth with little change in tradable employment\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table V, Figure 5\"},{\"claim\":\"Credit expansion raised consumer and nontradable prices in early-deregulation states\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table VI, Figure 6\"},{\"claim\":\"Early-deregulation states showed no higher cyclicality in previous expansions\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table VII\"},{\"claim\":\"Early-deregulation states had an amplified boom and a more severe 1989-1992 recession\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table VIII, Figure 7\"},{\"claim\":\"Household leverage growth in the boom is the strongest predictor of recession severity\",\"evidence_type\":\"figure\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Figure 8\"},{\"claim\":\"Nominal wages rose and did not reverse, consistent with downward nominal rigidity\",\"evidence_type\":\"figure\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Figure 9\"},{\"claim\":\"Across 56 countries, household (not firm) credit growth is associated with rising nontradable-to-tradable employment, output and prices\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table IX\"},{\"claim\":\"In the 2000s US boom, household credit expansion is associated with similar patterns\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table X\"},{\"claim\":\"A household demand channel implies inflation and relative nontradable employment growth\",\"evidence_type\":\"equation_or_proof\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Section II, Figure 3\"}],\"structural_summary\":\"The introduction frames two channels of credit supply expansion and motivates distinguishing them. It then previews a test based on tradable/nontradable employment and prices, summarizes results on amplification and its mechanisms, defends identification via deregulation timing, and closes with a roadmap. The body proceeds through data, a simple equilibrium framework giving comparative statics, and the deregulation natural experiment with first stage and exclusion restriction. Main results on employment and prices follow, with placebo tests on earlier cycles, then business-cycle amplification and its explanations. 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