1{"text": "{\"genre\":\"empirical\",\"subfield\":\"asset_pricing\",\"subfield_secondary\":\"macro_finance\",\"primary_method\":\"reduced_form_regression\",\"identification\":{\"estimand\":\"Average excess stock returns by week of the FOMC cycle (even versus odd weeks), and how much of the equity premium is attributable to Fed monetary policy news.\",\"strategy\":\"Regress daily excess returns on FOMC-cycle dummies. Rule out non-Fed explanations with controls for macro releases, earnings and reserve periods. Link the pattern to the Fed through the timing of intermeeting target changes, Fed funds futures changes, Board meeting interactions, Fed-put predictability regressions and changes in equity premium bounds.\",\"key_assumptions\":[\"The irregular FOMC calendar is unrelated to other news calendars.\",\"Board meetings and intermeeting changes proxy for the timing of Fed news.\",\"The Martin (2017) bounds measure the equity premium.\"],\"threats_addressed\":[\"Macroeconomic data release timing\",\"Corporate earnings announcements\",\"Reserve maintenance periods\",\"Data mining / small sample, via out-of-sample period 2014–2016\",\"Formal Fed releases and speeches as an alternative channel\"],\"causal_language_strength\":4,\"uses_causal_claim\":true},\"abstract_moves\":{\"question\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"gap\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"method\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":1},\"results\":{\"present\":true,\"sentence_index\":0},\"magnitude\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1},\"contribution\":{\"present\":false,\"sentence_index\":-1}},\"introduction\":{\"moves\":[{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"motivation\"},{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"literature_gap\"},{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"preview_of_approach\"},{\"paragraph_index\":0,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":1,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":1,\"move\":\"mechanism_or_theory_sketch\"},{\"paragraph_index\":2,\"move\":\"mechanism_or_theory_sketch\"},{\"paragraph_index\":3,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"},{\"paragraph_index\":4,\"move\":\"policy_or_broader_implication\"},{\"paragraph_index\":4,\"move\":\"preview_of_results\"}],\"contribution_paragraph_index\":0,\"contribution_types\":[\"new_evidence\"],\"roadmap_present\":false,\"literature_positioning_location\":\"inside_introduction\"},\"section_roles\":[{\"idx\":0,\"role\":\"introduction\"},{\"idx\":1,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":2,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":3,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":4,\"role\":\"results\"},{\"idx\":5,\"role\":\"other\"},{\"idx\":6,\"role\":\"conclusion\"}],\"results_presentation\":{\"economic_significance_discussed\":true,\"statistical_significance_language\":\"stars_and_tstats\",\"magnitude_statements_in_intro\":false},\"robustness\":{\"location\":\"within_results\",\"types\":[\"alternative_sample_period\",\"subsample\",\"other\"]},\"tables\":{\"convention_notes\":\"Notes define FOMC-cycle week dummies, give units in percent (0.1 = 10 bps per day), report heteroskedasticity-robust t-statistics in parentheses with stars, state data sources, and include a narrative table of leak examples.\",\"units_stated_in_notes\":true,\"standard_errors_description\":\"robust\"},\"figures\":{\"uncertainty_shown\":\"unclear\"},\"conclusion\":{\"bounded_claims\":true,\"policy_implications\":true,\"open_questions\":false,\"restates_contribution\":true},\"hedging\":{\"level\":\"moderate\",\"typical_devices\":[\"'evidence suggests'\",\"'make it likely'\",\"'appears'\",\"'we argue'\",\"'suggests that'\"]},\"claim_evidence\":[{\"claim\":\"Since 1994 the equity premium is earned entirely in even weeks of FOMC cycle time.\",\"evidence_type\":\"figure\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Figure 1; Table I\"},{\"claim\":\"The pattern is also present in international stock indices.\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table II\"},{\"claim\":\"Non-Fed news (macro releases, earnings) does not explain the even-week pattern.\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table III\"},{\"claim\":\"Intermeeting target changes and Fed funds futures declines concentrate in even weeks.\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Tables IV, V\"},{\"claim\":\"The even-week effect is driven disproportionately by days following Board of Governors meetings.\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table VI\"},{\"claim\":\"Even-week returns mean-revert after market declines and predict target changes (Fed put).\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Tables VII–IX; Figure 4\"},{\"claim\":\"Even-week reductions in the equity premium account for most of the high even-week returns.\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Table X; Figure 5\"},{\"claim\":\"Official Fed releases and speeches do not account for the even-week returns; informal communication does.\",\"evidence_type\":\"table\",\"evidence_ref\":\"Tables XI, XII; Figure 6\"}],\"structural_summary\":\"Opens with questions about the Fed's impact on stocks and notes that prior work focuses on announcement days. Section I presents the new fact (an even-week pattern), with statistical significance, out-of-sample checks, trading strategies, international evidence and cross-sectional evidence. Section II rules out non-Fed explanations, then ties the pattern to the Fed through several pieces of evidence. Section III argues the mechanism runs through reductions in the equity premium (a downside-risk channel). Section IV examines formal versus informal communication channels and Fed motives. The paper closes with a policy discussion and a conclusion.\",\"writing_profile_keywords\":[\"new stylized fact\",\"calendar-time anomaly\",\"monetary policy and stocks\",\"narrative evidence\",\"Fed put\",\"informal communication\",\"causal linking via multiple evidence pieces\"],\"confidence\":0.8,\"notes\":\"Causal claims rest on a triangulation of several pieces of evidence rather than a single quasi-experiment. Section IV's rule label of 'robustness' is overridden here as results, since it reports channel analysis rather than robustness checks.\"}", "json": {"genre": "empirical", "subfield": "asset_pricing", "subfield_secondary": "macro_finance", "primary_method": "reduced_form_regression", "identification": {"estimand": "Average excess stock returns by week of the FOMC cycle (even versus odd weeks), and how much of the equity premium is attributable to Fed monetary policy news.", "strategy": "Regress daily excess returns on FOMC-cycle dummies. Rule out non-Fed explanations with controls for macro releases, earnings and reserve periods. 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Section I presents the new fact (an even-week pattern), with statistical significance, out-of-sample checks, trading strategies, international evidence and cross-sectional evidence. Section II rules out non-Fed explanations, then ties the pattern to the Fed through several pieces of evidence. Section III argues the mechanism runs through reductions in the equity premium (a downside-risk channel). Section IV examines formal versus informal communication channels and Fed motives. The paper closes with a policy discussion and a conclusion.", "writing_profile_keywords": ["new stylized fact", "calendar-time anomaly", "monetary policy and stocks", "narrative evidence", "Fed put", "informal communication", "causal linking via multiple evidence pieces"], "confidence": 0.8, "notes": "Causal claims rest on a triangulation of several pieces of evidence rather than a single quasi-experiment. 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