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WP46: evaluation + inference modules, pilot script, protocol docs, decisions log, data dictionary, job lists

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added docs/data_dictionary.md +36 −0
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1+# Data dictionary (WP46)
2+
3+## Daily panel (`<cache>/panels/<symbol>.parquet`, one row per session; built by `scripts/build_panels.py`)
4+| column | unit | definition |
5+|---|---|---|
6+| session | date | session identifier (ET date for equities/futures/FX, UTC date for crypto; see D-02) |
7+| close, open | price | session close (last 1-minute bar close in the window) and open; equities: vendor split+dividend-adjusted daily bars |
8+| r | percent | 100·log(close_t / close_{t−1}) — the modelled daily return |
9+| r_on | percent | 100·log(open_t / close_{t−1}) (overnight; 0 for FX/crypto, break return for futures) |
10+| r_oc | percent | 100·log(close_t / open_t) |
11+| rv_1m | percent² | Σ squared 1-minute log returns within the window |
12+| rv_5m | percent² | Σ squared 5-minute calendar returns (grid anchored at the window start, previous tick) |
13+| rv_5m_ss | percent² | average of the five 5-minute RV estimates with 1-minute grid offsets (primary intraday measure) |
14+| bv_5m | percent² | (π/2)·Σ|r_j||r_{j−1}| on the 5-minute grid |
15+| rsv_pos_5m, rsv_neg_5m | percent² | realized semivariances on the 5-minute grid |
16+| medrv_5m | percent² | median realized variance on the 5-minute grid |
17+| n_bars, n_5m | count | 1-minute bars used; 5-minute returns |
18+| expected_bars | count | full-session bar count (391/211 equities; modal count otherwise) |
19+| valid_rm | bool | realized measures usable (D-05, D-06) |
20+
21+## Forecast table (`results/forecasts/<run>/<symbol>/<spec_id>.parquet`, one row per origin)
22+origin (date of the information set), fit_id, status ∈ {ok, stale_fit, failed, forecast_failed, no_fit, missing_input},
23+method ∈ {analytic, simulation, direct}, h1/h5/h22 (percent², cumulative variance forecasts of the 1/5/22-day returns),
24+sigma2_t, mu (one-step mean, percent), dp1/dp2 (distribution parameters), time_fc_s, admissible, plus the keys symbol,
25+model_id, dist, spec_id, tier, window, refit_every, expanding.
26+
27+## Fits table (`<spec_id>.fits.parquet`, one row per refit attempt)
28+fit_id, origin, status ∈ {ok, inadmissible, failed}, error, loglik, n_iter, n_restarts, time_s, n_obs, admissible, params, param_names.
29+
30+## Loss table (`results/metrics/losses/<symbol>.parquet`)
31+origin, spec_id, model_id, dist, tier, h, proxy, loss, value, status, forecast, target.
32+
33+## Keys
34+`spec_id = <model_id>__<dist>__w<window>_r<refit>` (or `exp` for expanding). Run manifests (`_runs.jsonl`) carry git SHA, host,
35+package versions, wall/CPU time and peak memory per job; dataset versions and SHA-256 of every exported file are in
36+`results/manifests/ingest_manifest.json`.
added docs/methodology_decisions.md +21 −0
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1+# Methodology decisions log (WP46)
2+
3+Each decision is dated, motivated, and tied to evidence. "Before freeze" = taken before the pre-registration tag.
4+
5+| ID | Date | Decision | Motivation / evidence |
6+|---|---|---|---|
7+| D-01 | 2026-11-09 | Returns in **percent** log units; variances in percent². | Numerical conditioning of the GARCH likelihoods (arch rescales otherwise); explicit units everywhere. |
8+| D-02 | 2026-11-09 | Session windows: equities 09:30–16:00 ET (XNYS calendar, early closes), futures CME trading day 18:00→17:00 ET, FX 17:00→17:00 ET, crypto UTC day. | `docs/findata_audit.md` §4: vendor `session_date` for futures/FX is an ET calendar day, not the trading day; the CME/NY convention aligns the daily return and the realized measure on the same window. |
9+| D-03 | 2026-11-09 | Realized measures: 1-min RV, 5-min calendar RV, subsampled 5-min RV (primary), bipower, semivariances, medRV; previous-tick sampling. | Liu, Patton & Sheppard (2015): 5-min RV is hard to beat; subsampling reduces grid dependence. |
10+| D-04 | 2026-11-09 | Primary proxy = subsampled 5-min RV + squared overnight return (full-day variance); secondary: r², RV1, RV5, BV, medRV, Hansen–Lunde scaled RV. | The models forecast the close-to-close variance; audit shows mean(RV5ss + r_on²)/mean(r²) ∈ [0.93, 1.15] for equities/futures/FX. |
11+| D-05 | 2026-11-09 | Session validity: ≥ 60 % of the instrument's **modal** 1-minute bar count (equities: 391/211 per calendar). | Grains (ZC) trade ~730 min/day, NG ~1,100, FX 1,440; a fixed 1,380 threshold invalidated 74 % of ZC days. |
12+| D-06 | 2026-11-09 | Crypto realized measures are invalid before 2020-01-01 (daily returns kept). | Audit: BTC 1-min RV is 10–100× the squared daily return in 2013–2019 (12,810 one-minute moves > 5 % in 2017 alone: cross-venue bounce in the vendor aggregate); from 2020 the ratio is ≈ 1.2–1.5. |
13+| D-07 | 2026-11-09 | Tier B input = primary proxy of day t−1 (observed at the close of t−1); invalid days imputed by r² inside the recursion only (flagged). | Keeps the recursion defined; the imputation never enters the evaluation target. |
14+| D-08 | 2026-11-09 | Rolling window 1,000 days, refit every 5 days, daily filtering with fixed parameters; expanding and 2,000-day windows as robustness. | Compute budget (≈ 90 specs × 42 instruments × 3,700 origins); weekly re-estimation changes parameters negligibly relative to daily. |
15+| D-09 | 2026-11-09 | Multi-step forecasts: exact analytic recursions (GARCH, GJR with κ = E[z²1{z<0}], NAGARCH, QGARCH, CGARCH, IGARCH, GAS, HEAVY, GARCH-X, MS-GARCH Haas recursion, FIGARCH via arch); simulation with 2,000 paths and a fixed seed for EGARCH, APARCH, TARCH, AVGARCH, Realized GARCH; HAR direct projections per horizon. | The brief forbids naive extrapolation; each model card states the recursion. |
16+| D-10 | 2026-11-09 | Failure policy: bounded retries (3 starting values + Nelder–Mead polish for custom models; 2 restarts for arch), then keep the last successful parameters (flag `stale_fit`), else NaN. No replacement by another model. | Brief §"Computation, failures and fairness". |
17+| D-11 | 2026-11-09 | Unsupported architectures (FIEGARCH, FIAPARCH, HYGARCH, smooth-transition GARCH, GARCH-MIDAS, SV, Realized EGARCH) are listed in the registry as `unsupported` and not scored. | No vetted implementation in the version-locked libraries (arch 8.0.0, rugarch 1.5-6) or outside the pre-registered information set; a custom implementation without an authoritative cross-check would violate the verification rule. |
18+| D-12 | 2026-11-09 | Innovation distributions: normal, Student-t, GED, Hansen skew-t for arch and custom GARCH-type models; normal/t only for MS-GARCH, Realized GARCH, HEAVY, GARCH-X; t only for GAS-t. | Formal validity and implementation availability; recorded as `unsupported` combinations otherwise. |
19+| D-13 | 2026-11-09 | Validation period 2012-01-03 → 2015-12-31 (design checks, pilot, failure accounting); test period 2016-01-04 → 2026-10-30, untouched until the protocol freeze. | FX starts in 2010 (+1,000-day window → 2014), crypto later: validation checks use the instruments available. |
20+| D-14 | 2026-11-09 | Cross-check policy: every arch-backed and custom model is compared with rugarch 1.5-6 on a shared fixture (`results/metrics/rugarch_crosscheck.json`); FIGARCH differs by 1.47 log-likelihood units (different truncation/constraints between arch and rugarch) and is reported as an implementation caveat. | Verified 2026-11-09. |
21+| D-15 | 2026-11-09 | Smoke tests of the forecasting machinery were run on SPY 2024 forecasts (values only, no losses) before the freeze; the pilot uses the validation period only. | Disclosure of what was seen before the pre-registration. |
added docs/preregistered_protocol.md +95 −0
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1+# Pre-registered protocol — WP46 "Four Decades of Conditional Volatility Modeling"
2+
3+**Status: FROZEN** at git tag `prereg-frozen` (date in `progress.md`). Written after the data audit (`docs/findata_audit.md`),
4+the literature matrix (`docs/literature_matrix.md`) and the validation-period pilot (`docs/feasibility_report.md`), and
5+BEFORE any loss, ranking or test statistic computed on the test period. Deviations after the freeze are amendments
6+(A-xx) logged in `progress.md` with their motivation; exploratory analyses are labelled as such in the paper.
7+
8+## 1. Research question and hypotheses
9+Q. Across asset classes, horizons, regimes and information sets, when — if ever — do more complex conditional
10+volatility models reliably outperform GARCH(1,1), and is any gain worth the numerical and computational cost?
11+
12+Confirmatory hypotheses (each tested with the primary loss, primary proxy, test period, common-success sample):
13+- **H1 (asymmetry).** Asymmetric models (GJR, EGARCH, TGARCH, APARCH, NAGARCH, QGARCH) with the same innovation
14+ distribution have lower QLIKE than GARCH(1,1) at h = 1 for equity instruments (ETFs and stocks). Prediction: pooled
15+ loss ratio < 1 with a 90 % block-bootstrap CI excluding 1; MCS membership of GARCH(1,1) lost for a majority of equity instruments.
16+- **H2 (distribution).** Within an architecture, non-Gaussian innovations do not change QLIKE-based variance-forecast rankings
17+ materially (|pooled ratio − 1| < 0.02 at all horizons) but improve the 1 % VaR coverage tests (fewer rejections).
18+- **H3 (realized information).** Tier B models with the lagged realized measure (HAR, Realized GARCH, HEAVY, GARCH-X)
19+ beat the best Tier A model at h = 1 (pooled ratio < 0.9) and the advantage shrinks with the horizon (ratio at h = 22 closer to 1).
20+- **H4 (persistence structure).** Long-memory/component/regime models (FIGARCH, CGARCH, MS-GARCH) improve over GARCH(1,1)
21+ only at h = 22, if at all (no improvement at h = 1).
22+- **H5 (cost).** Complex models have materially higher failure rates (non-convergence or inadmissibility) and compute
23+ time; on the failure-adjusted ("operational") sample their advantage, if any, is reduced relative to the common-success sample.
24+- **H6 (regimes).** Rankings differ between tranquil and stressed regimes: asymmetric and realized-measure models gain
25+ most in the high-trailing-volatility tercile; GARCH(1,1) is rarely excluded from the MCS in the low tercile.
26+Direction and magnitude thresholds above are fixed now; "materially" always refers to the thresholds stated.
27+
28+## 2. Universe (frozen)
29+42 instruments from FinData OS (FirstRate Data), all alive on 2026-11-06 (selection bias toward liquid survivors is
30+disclosed): ETFs SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, EEM, EFA, XLF, XLE, TLT, IEF, HYG, LQD, GLD, SLV, USO; stocks AAPL, MSFT, AMZN,
31+NVDA, JPM, XOM, JNJ, PG, KO, WMT; futures (continuous, ratio back-adjusted, vendor rolls) ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG,
32+ZN, ZC; FX EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF; crypto BTC, ETH. Sample 2000-01-03 → 2026-10-30 (instrument
33+start dates in `docs/findata_audit.md`). Regime variables: VIX (daily, index dataset). No instrument is added or
34+removed after the freeze; an instrument whose forecasts cannot be produced for a model is a recorded failure.
35+
36+## 3. Data conventions (frozen; details in `docs/data_dictionary.md`, decisions D-01…D-07)
37+Daily log returns in percent; session windows per asset class (D-02); realized measures on the session window (D-03);
38+primary proxy = subsampled 5-min RV + squared overnight return (D-04); validity rules D-05/D-06; crypto realized
39+measures from 2020 only (D-06). Tier B input = primary proxy lagged one day (D-07).
40+
41+## 4. Information tiers and model set (frozen; `configs/model_registry.yaml`)
42+- Tier A (daily returns only): baselines (constant, historical 22/66/252, EWMA 0.94, RiskMetrics 2006); ARCH(5);
43+ GARCH(1,1) **benchmark**, GARCH(2,1), GARCH(1,2); IGARCH; GARCH-M; GJR; TGARCH (Zakoïan); EGARCH; NAGARCH; QGARCH;
44+ AVGARCH; APARCH; FIGARCH(1,d,1); CGARCH; MS-GARCH(2); GAS-t (non-GARCH comparator). Innovations: normal, Student-t,
45+ GED, Hansen skew-t where supported (registry).
46+- Tier B (plus lagged realized measure): realized random walk, HAR-RV, log-HAR-RV, Realized GARCH, HEAVY, GARCH-X(RV).
47+- Tier C (multivariate, `configs/study.yaml`): rolling covariance, EWMA covariance, CCC-GARCH, DCC, asymmetric DCC,
48+ scalar BEKK on two ETF baskets, h = 1, scored against the 5-minute realized covariance + overnight outer product with
49+ the Frobenius loss and the multivariate QLIKE; portfolio-variance diagnostics for the equally weighted portfolio.
50+Order grid: (1,1) everywhere, plus GARCH(2,1)/(1,2) and ARCH(5) as pre-specified order variants. Nothing else is tuned.
51+
52+## 5. Forecasting design (frozen; `configs/forecast_protocol.yaml`, D-08…D-10)
53+Rolling window 1,000 days, refit every 5 trading days, daily filtering; horizons 1, 5, 22 (cumulative variance);
54+multi-step rules per model (D-09); failure policy D-10; seed 46; 2,000 simulation paths. Robustness (exploratory):
55+expanding window and window 2,000 for a subset of models; refit every 22 days.
56+
57+## 6. Periods (frozen; D-13)
58+Validation 2012-01-03 → 2015-12-31 (design checks only). **Test 2016-01-04 → 2026-10-30** (all confirmatory results).
59+Crypto and FX instruments enter the test period when their window allows (BTC ≥ 2017, ETH ≥ 2020 for daily; realized
60+measures from 2020).
61+
62+## 7. Losses, proxies, samples
63+Primary: QLIKE (zero-safe form) on the primary proxy. Secondary: MSE, MAE, MSE on the standard-deviation scale
64+(sensitivity only), log predictive score at h = 1 for models with a density, Mincer–Zarnowitz R². Proxy sensitivity:
65+rv5_on, rv1_on, bv5_on, medrv_on, r², Hansen–Lunde scaled RV.
66+Samples: (i) **common-success sample** per instrument×horizon = origins at which every compared specification has a valid
67+forecast and the target is valid; (ii) **operational sample** = each model's own valid origins, with failures counted
68+(coverage rate reported next to the loss); (iii) full-information reporting of failure rates. Cross-tier comparisons
69+(A vs B) are always labelled with the information-set difference.
70+
71+## 8. Inference (frozen)
72+Diebold–Mariano tests vs GARCH(1,1)-normal with Newey–West HAC (bandwidth h−1+⌊4(n/100)^{2/9}⌋, HLN correction);
73+MCS (α = 0.10, Tmax statistic, stationary bootstrap, expected block 22 days, 2,000 replications) per instrument×horizon
74+within each tier; SPA (Hansen 2005) with GARCH(1,1) as the benchmark per instrument×horizon; pooled cross-asset loss
75+ratios with a stationary block bootstrap over dates that resamples all instruments jointly (90 % CIs); Holm adjustment
76+across the 42 instruments for each (model, horizon) family when counting significant wins. Effect sizes = loss ratios.
77+Economic materiality threshold: a QLIKE ratio within ±2 % of 1 is reported as "no material difference" regardless of significance.
78+
79+## 9. Tail risk
80+VaR/ES at 1 % and 5 % for h = 1 from each model's own innovation distribution (empirical quantiles of standardized
81+in-window residuals for distribution-free models): Kupiec unconditional coverage, Christoffersen conditional coverage,
82+Engle–Manganelli dynamic quantile (4 lags), Fissler–Ziegel FZ0 joint VaR–ES loss with DM comparisons vs GARCH(1,1)-t.
83+
84+## 10. Regimes (frozen, defined without look-ahead)
85+Trailing 22-day realized variance terciles at the origin (thresholds from the validation period per instrument);
86+calendar episodes fixed now: COVID 2020-02-20→2020-06-30, 2022 rate shock (calendar year 2022), tariff shock
87+2025-04-02→2025-05-30; sign of the previous day's return; VIX terciles (equities). Sensitivity: 66-day trailing terciles.
88+
89+## 11. Computation and failures
90+Per job: wall time, CPU time, peak RSS, fit time per refit, iterations, restarts, convergence/admissibility flags,
91+forecast coverage. Pareto frontiers: accuracy (pooled QLIKE ratio) vs median fit time and vs failure rate.
92+
93+## 12. What is exploratory
94+Everything not listed in §1–§11 (e.g. per-asset narratives, alternative regime definitions beyond the sensitivity list,
95+window-length comparisons, tier-C multi-step forecasts) is reported as exploratory.
added results/manifests/jobs_main.json +19849 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,45866 @@
1+[
2+{
3+"symbol": "AAPL",
4+"model_id": "msgarch2",
5+"dist": "normal",
6+"tier": "A",
7+"window": 1000,
8+"refit_every": 5,
9+"expanding": false,
10+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
11+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
12+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
13+"seed": 46,
14+"max_restarts": 3
15+},
16+{
17+"symbol": "AAPL",
18+"model_id": "msgarch2",
19+"dist": "t",
20+"tier": "A",
21+"window": 1000,
22+"refit_every": 5,
23+"expanding": false,
24+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
25+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
26+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
27+"seed": 46,
28+"max_restarts": 3
29+},
30+{
31+"symbol": "AMZN",
32+"model_id": "msgarch2",
33+"dist": "normal",
34+"tier": "A",
35+"window": 1000,
36+"refit_every": 5,
37+"expanding": false,
38+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
39+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
40+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
41+"seed": 46,
42+"max_restarts": 3
43+},
44+{
45+"symbol": "AMZN",
46+"model_id": "msgarch2",
47+"dist": "t",
48+"tier": "A",
49+"window": 1000,
50+"refit_every": 5,
51+"expanding": false,
52+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
53+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
54+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
55+"seed": 46,
56+"max_restarts": 3
57+},
58+{
59+"symbol": "AUDUSD",
60+"model_id": "msgarch2",
61+"dist": "normal",
62+"tier": "A",
63+"window": 1000,
64+"refit_every": 5,
65+"expanding": false,
66+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
67+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
68+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
69+"seed": 46,
70+"max_restarts": 3
71+},
72+{
73+"symbol": "AUDUSD",
74+"model_id": "msgarch2",
75+"dist": "t",
76+"tier": "A",
77+"window": 1000,
78+"refit_every": 5,
79+"expanding": false,
80+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
81+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
82+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
83+"seed": 46,
84+"max_restarts": 3
85+},
86+{
87+"symbol": "BTC",
88+"model_id": "msgarch2",
89+"dist": "normal",
90+"tier": "A",
91+"window": 1000,
92+"refit_every": 5,
93+"expanding": false,
94+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
95+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
96+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
97+"seed": 46,
98+"max_restarts": 3
99+},
100+{
101+"symbol": "BTC",
102+"model_id": "msgarch2",
103+"dist": "t",
104+"tier": "A",
105+"window": 1000,
106+"refit_every": 5,
107+"expanding": false,
108+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
109+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
110+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
111+"seed": 46,
112+"max_restarts": 3
113+},
114+{
115+"symbol": "CL",
116+"model_id": "msgarch2",
117+"dist": "normal",
118+"tier": "A",
119+"window": 1000,
120+"refit_every": 5,
121+"expanding": false,
122+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
123+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
124+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
125+"seed": 46,
126+"max_restarts": 3
127+},
128+{
129+"symbol": "CL",
130+"model_id": "msgarch2",
131+"dist": "t",
132+"tier": "A",
133+"window": 1000,
134+"refit_every": 5,
135+"expanding": false,
136+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
137+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
138+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
139+"seed": 46,
140+"max_restarts": 3
141+},
142+{
143+"symbol": "DIA",
144+"model_id": "msgarch2",
145+"dist": "normal",
146+"tier": "A",
147+"window": 1000,
148+"refit_every": 5,
149+"expanding": false,
150+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
151+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
152+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
153+"seed": 46,
154+"max_restarts": 3
155+},
156+{
157+"symbol": "DIA",
158+"model_id": "msgarch2",
159+"dist": "t",
160+"tier": "A",
161+"window": 1000,
162+"refit_every": 5,
163+"expanding": false,
164+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
165+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
166+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
167+"seed": 46,
168+"max_restarts": 3
169+},
170+{
171+"symbol": "EEM",
172+"model_id": "msgarch2",
173+"dist": "normal",
174+"tier": "A",
175+"window": 1000,
176+"refit_every": 5,
177+"expanding": false,
178+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
179+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
180+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
181+"seed": 46,
182+"max_restarts": 3
183+},
184+{
185+"symbol": "EEM",
186+"model_id": "msgarch2",
187+"dist": "t",
188+"tier": "A",
189+"window": 1000,
190+"refit_every": 5,
191+"expanding": false,
192+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
193+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
194+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
195+"seed": 46,
196+"max_restarts": 3
197+},
198+{
199+"symbol": "EFA",
200+"model_id": "msgarch2",
201+"dist": "normal",
202+"tier": "A",
203+"window": 1000,
204+"refit_every": 5,
205+"expanding": false,
206+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
207+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
208+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
209+"seed": 46,
210+"max_restarts": 3
211+},
212+{
213+"symbol": "EFA",
214+"model_id": "msgarch2",
215+"dist": "t",
216+"tier": "A",
217+"window": 1000,
218+"refit_every": 5,
219+"expanding": false,
220+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
221+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
222+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
223+"seed": 46,
224+"max_restarts": 3
225+},
226+{
227+"symbol": "ES",
228+"model_id": "msgarch2",
229+"dist": "normal",
230+"tier": "A",
231+"window": 1000,
232+"refit_every": 5,
233+"expanding": false,
234+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
235+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
236+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
237+"seed": 46,
238+"max_restarts": 3
239+},
240+{
241+"symbol": "ES",
242+"model_id": "msgarch2",
243+"dist": "t",
244+"tier": "A",
245+"window": 1000,
246+"refit_every": 5,
247+"expanding": false,
248+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
249+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
250+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
251+"seed": 46,
252+"max_restarts": 3
253+},
254+{
255+"symbol": "ETH",
256+"model_id": "msgarch2",
257+"dist": "normal",
258+"tier": "A",
259+"window": 1000,
260+"refit_every": 5,
261+"expanding": false,
262+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
263+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
264+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
265+"seed": 46,
266+"max_restarts": 3
267+},
268+{
269+"symbol": "ETH",
270+"model_id": "msgarch2",
271+"dist": "t",
272+"tier": "A",
273+"window": 1000,
274+"refit_every": 5,
275+"expanding": false,
276+"rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on",
277+"oos_start": "2012-01-03",
278+"oos_end": "2026-10-30",
279+"seed": 46,
280+"max_restarts": 3
281+},
282+{
283+"symbol": "EURUSD",
284+"model_id": "msgarch2",
285+"dist": "normal",
286+"tier": "A",
287+"window": 1000,
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Diff truncated — file too large.

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