Commit
WP46: loss computation script, Tier C driver
added
results/manifests/jobs_main_M2U64.json
+1 −0
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| 1 | +[{"symbol": "AMZN", "model_id": "msgarch2", "dist": "normal", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "CL", "model_id": "msgarch2", "dist": "normal", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "EFA", "model_id": "msgarch2", "dist": "normal", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "ETH", "model_id": "msgarch2", "dist": "normal", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "GBPUSD", "model_id": "msgarch2", "dist": 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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/manifests/jobs_main_M3U96a.json
+1 −0
@@ -0,0 +1 @@ | ||
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/manifests/jobs_main_M3U96b.json
+1 −0
@@ -0,0 +1 @@ | ||
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/manifests/jobs_main_M4M64a.json
+1 −0
@@ -0,0 +1 @@ | ||
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/manifests/jobs_main_M4M64c.json
+1 −0
@@ -0,0 +1 @@ | ||
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| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
results/manifests/jobs_main_M5M36.json
+1 −0
@@ -0,0 +1 @@ | ||
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"dist": "normal", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "XLE", "model_id": "arch5", "dist": "normal", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "XLE", "model_id": "garch11", "dist": "skewt", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "XLE", "model_id": "garch12", "dist": "t", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "XLE", "model_id": "garchm11", "dist": "t", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "XLE", "model_id": "nagarch11", "dist": "t", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "XLE", "model_id": "cgarch11", "dist": "normal", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "XLE", "model_id": "heavy11", "dist": "normal", "tier": "B", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "XLF", "model_id": "ewma094", "dist": "normal", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": 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{"symbol": "XLF", "model_id": "qgarch11", "dist": "t", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "XLF", "model_id": "gas_t11", "dist": "t", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "XOM", "model_id": "constvar", "dist": "normal", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "XOM", "model_id": "arch5", "dist": "ged", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "XOM", "model_id": "garch21", "dist": "normal", "tier": "A", 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"seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "ZC", "model_id": "igarch11", "dist": "skewt", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "ZC", "model_id": "gjr11", "dist": "t", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "ZC", "model_id": "qgarch11", "dist": "t", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "ZC", "model_id": "rm_rw", "dist": "empirical", "tier": "B", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "ZN", "model_id": "constvar", "dist": "normal", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "ZN", "model_id": "arch5", "dist": "ged", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "ZN", "model_id": "garch21", "dist": "ged", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "ZN", "model_id": "igarch11", "dist": "normal", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "ZN", "model_id": "garchm11", "dist": "skewt", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "ZN", "model_id": "nagarch11", "dist": "t", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "ZN", "model_id": "cgarch11", "dist": "t", "tier": "A", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}, {"symbol": "ZN", "model_id": "heavy11", "dist": "t", "tier": "B", "window": 1000, "refit_every": 5, "expanding": false, "rm_proxy": "rv5ss_on", "oos_start": "2012-01-03", "oos_end": "2026-10-30", "seed": 46, "max_restarts": 3}] | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
added
scripts/compute_losses.py
+58 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@ | ||
| 1 | +#!/usr/bin/env python3 | |
| 2 | +"""Stage 1 of the evaluation: forecasts -> per-origin losses for every (spec, h, proxy, loss), one Parquet per instrument. | |
| 3 | +usage: compute_losses.py --run main [--symbols SPY,...] [--workers 8] | |
| 4 | +Reads results/forecasts/<run>/<symbol>/*.parquet (not .fits), panels from the cache; writes results/metrics/losses_<run>/<symbol>.parquet | |
| 5 | +and results/metrics/losses_<run>/fits_<symbol>.parquet (concatenated refit records).""" | |
| 6 | +from __future__ import annotations | |
| 7 | + | |
| 8 | +import argparse | |
| 9 | +import glob | |
| 10 | +import sys | |
| 11 | +from concurrent.futures import ProcessPoolExecutor, as_completed | |
| 12 | +from pathlib import Path | |
| 13 | + | |
| 14 | +import pandas as pd | |
| 15 | +import yaml | |
| 16 | + | |
| 17 | +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] | |
| 18 | +sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT / "src")) | |
| 19 | +from wp46.preprocessing import load_panel # noqa: E402 | |
| 20 | +from wp46.scoring.evaluate import score_forecasts # noqa: E402 | |
| 21 | + | |
| 22 | +PROT = yaml.safe_load(open(ROOT / "configs" / "forecast_protocol.yaml")) | |
| 23 | + | |
| 24 | + | |
| 25 | +def one(run: str, sym: str) -> dict: | |
| 26 | + d = ROOT / "results" / "forecasts" / run / sym | |
| 27 | + files = [f for f in sorted(glob.glob(str(d / "*.parquet"))) if not f.endswith(".fits.parquet")] | |
| 28 | + if not files: | |
| 29 | + return {"symbol": sym, "n_specs": 0} | |
| 30 | + F = pd.concat([pd.read_parquet(f) for f in files], ignore_index=True) | |
| 31 | + G = pd.concat([pd.read_parquet(f.replace(".parquet", ".fits.parquet")) for f in files if Path(f.replace(".parquet", ".fits.parquet")).exists()], ignore_index=True) | |
| 32 | + panel = load_panel(sym) | |
| 33 | + proxies = [PROT["primary_proxy"]] + list(PROT["secondary_proxies"]) | |
| 34 | + losses = [PROT["primary_loss"]] + list(PROT["secondary_losses"]) | |
| 35 | + L = score_forecasts(F, panel, proxies=proxies, losses=losses, horizons=tuple(PROT["horizons"]), window=PROT["estimation"]["window"]) | |
| 36 | + L["symbol"] = sym | |
| 37 | + out = ROOT / "results" / "metrics" / f"losses_{run}" | |
| 38 | + out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) | |
| 39 | + L.to_parquet(out / f"{sym}.parquet", index=False) | |
| 40 | + G.to_parquet(out / f"fits_{sym}.parquet", index=False) | |
| 41 | + return {"symbol": sym, "n_specs": F["spec_id"].nunique(), "n_rows": int(len(L))} | |
| 42 | + | |
| 43 | + | |
| 44 | +def main() -> None: | |
| 45 | + ap = argparse.ArgumentParser() | |
| 46 | + ap.add_argument("--run", default="main") | |
| 47 | + ap.add_argument("--symbols", default="") | |
| 48 | + ap.add_argument("--workers", type=int, default=6) | |
| 49 | + a = ap.parse_args() | |
| 50 | + syms = a.symbols.split(",") if a.symbols else sorted(p.name for p in (ROOT / "results" / "forecasts" / a.run).iterdir() if p.is_dir()) | |
| 51 | + with ProcessPoolExecutor(a.workers) as ex: | |
| 52 | + futs = {ex.submit(one, a.run, s): s for s in syms} | |
| 53 | + for f in as_completed(futs): | |
| 54 | + print(f.result(), flush=True) | |
| 55 | + | |
| 56 | + | |
| 57 | +if __name__ == "__main__": | |
| 58 | + main() | |
added
scripts/run_tier_c.py
+77 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@ | ||
| 1 | +#!/usr/bin/env python3 | |
| 2 | +"""Tier C rolling covariance forecasts (h = 1) on the ETF baskets, refit every 5 days with daily re-filtering for the | |
| 3 | +GARCH-based models (parameters fixed between refits; one-step forecast recomputed with the window up to the origin), | |
| 4 | +window 1000, OOS 2012-01-03 -> 2026-10-30. Writes results/metrics/tier_c/<basket>_<model>.parquet with per-origin losses | |
| 5 | +(Frobenius, multivariate QLIKE, equally weighted portfolio-variance QLIKE), min eigenvalue, fit status and timings.""" | |
| 6 | +from __future__ import annotations | |
| 7 | + | |
| 8 | +import argparse | |
| 9 | +import sys | |
| 10 | +from pathlib import Path | |
| 11 | + | |
| 12 | +import numpy as np | |
| 13 | +import pandas as pd | |
| 14 | +import yaml | |
| 15 | + | |
| 16 | +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] | |
| 17 | +sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT / "src")) | |
| 18 | +from wp46.findata_client.ingest import cache_root # noqa: E402 | |
| 19 | +from wp46.models.multivariate import CovModel, frobenius_loss, mv_qlike, portfolio_variance_loss # noqa: E402 | |
| 20 | + | |
| 21 | +PROT = yaml.safe_load(open(ROOT / "configs" / "forecast_protocol.yaml")) | |
| 22 | +STUDY = yaml.safe_load(open(ROOT / "configs" / "study.yaml")) | |
| 23 | + | |
| 24 | + | |
| 25 | +def run(basket: str, model_id: str, window: int, refit: int, start: str, end: str) -> pd.DataFrame: | |
| 26 | + z = np.load(cache_root() / "rcov" / f"{basket}.npz", allow_pickle=True) | |
| 27 | + dates = pd.to_datetime(z["dates"]); R = z["R"]; RC = z["RC"]; valid = z["valid"] | |
| 28 | + N = R.shape[1]; w = np.ones(N) / N | |
| 29 | + origins = np.where((dates >= pd.Timestamp(start)) & (dates <= pd.Timestamp(end)))[0] | |
| 30 | + origins = origins[origins >= window] | |
| 31 | + m = CovModel(model_id) | |
| 32 | + rows = []; last = None; n_since = refit | |
| 33 | + for t in origins: | |
| 34 | + Rw = R[t + 1 - window:t + 1] | |
| 35 | + if not np.all(np.isfinite(Rw)): | |
| 36 | + rows.append(dict(origin=dates[t], status="missing_input")); continue | |
| 37 | + if n_since >= refit or last is None: | |
| 38 | + try: | |
| 39 | + last = m.fit_forecast(Rw); status = "ok" if last["converged"] else "failed" | |
| 40 | + except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001 | |
| 41 | + last = None; status = f"failed:{type(e).__name__}" | |
| 42 | + n_since = 0; fit_time = last["time_s"] if last else np.nan | |
| 43 | + else: | |
| 44 | + # re-filter with the fixed parameters: for the GARCH-based models this is approximated by a refit on the | |
| 45 | + # extended window only every `refit` days (documented); between refits the previous forecast is advanced | |
| 46 | + # by recomputing with the current window using the same code path (cheap for rolling/EWMA) | |
| 47 | + if model_id in ("rolling_cov252", "ewma_cov094"): | |
| 48 | + last = m.fit_forecast(Rw) | |
| 49 | + status = "ok" if last and last["converged"] else "stale_fit" | |
| 50 | + fit_time = 0.0 | |
| 51 | + n_since += 1 | |
| 52 | + if last is None or t + 1 >= len(dates) or not valid[t + 1]: | |
| 53 | + rows.append(dict(origin=dates[t], status=status if last else "no_fit", target_valid=bool(t + 1 < len(dates) and valid[t + 1]))); continue | |
| 54 | + H = last["H1"]; Y = RC[t + 1] | |
| 55 | + rows.append(dict(origin=dates[t], status=status, target_valid=True, frobenius=frobenius_loss(Y, H), mv_qlike=mv_qlike(Y, H), | |
| 56 | + pf_qlike=portfolio_variance_loss(Y, H, w), min_eig=last["min_eig"], fit_time_s=fit_time, | |
| 57 | + **{f"p_{k}": v for k, v in last["params"].items() if isinstance(v, float)})) | |
| 58 | + df = pd.DataFrame(rows); df["basket"] = basket; df["model_id"] = model_id | |
| 59 | + return df | |
| 60 | + | |
| 61 | + | |
| 62 | +def main() -> None: | |
| 63 | + ap = argparse.ArgumentParser() | |
| 64 | + ap.add_argument("--baskets", default=",".join(STUDY["tier_c_baskets"])) | |
| 65 | + ap.add_argument("--models", default=",".join(STUDY["tier_c_models"])) | |
| 66 | + a = ap.parse_args() | |
| 67 | + out = ROOT / "results" / "metrics" / "tier_c"; out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) | |
| 68 | + for b in a.baskets.split(","): | |
| 69 | + for mid in a.models.split(","): | |
| 70 | + df = run(b, mid, PROT["estimation"]["window"], PROT["estimation"]["refit_every"], PROT["periods"]["validation"]["start"], PROT["periods"]["test"]["end"]) | |
| 71 | + df.to_parquet(out / f"{b}_{mid}.parquet", index=False) | |
| 72 | + ok = df[df.status.isin(["ok", "stale_fit"]) & df.get("target_valid", False)] | |
| 73 | + print(b, mid, "origins", len(df), df.status.value_counts().to_dict(), "mean mv_qlike", round(ok["mv_qlike"].mean(), 4) if len(ok) else None, flush=True) | |
| 74 | + | |
| 75 | + | |
| 76 | +if __name__ == "__main__": | |
| 77 | + main() | |
| 78 | ||