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L1-A1, L1-A2 (WP07-DATA-01, ADVE-09, THEO-09, DATA-10, ADVE-01, THEO-03, EDIT-10, ECON-03, LITE-03): RQ3 rebuilt 2010-2025, post-origin stress grid

- scripts/04: stage 1b build_from_parquets() (29 names, NaN-tolerant realized
  correlation, n_constituents>=20, complete VIX) -> correlation_divergence_v2.parquet
  (regenerable, not committed) + rq3_diagnostics.csv; --legacy reproduces
  rq3_stress_prediction.csv and rq3_crisis_analysis.csv byte-for-byte.
- stress_regressions_v2: series{shipped, rebuilt30, v2} x sample x definition
  {S1 shipped, S2 post-origin, S3 realized} x transform{raw, log, winsor1, rank}
  x spec{A-D} x controls{baseline, extended} x onset x estimator{LPM NW(h),
  logit HAC(h)} -> rq3_stress_prediction_v2.csv (30,240 rows); nine headline
  tests with episode block bootstrap (B=1000), Holm and Romano-Wolf ->
  rq3_headline.csv, rq3_bootstrap.csv; crisis windows on both samples.
- Anchors reproduced exactly: legacy 3.27/4.13/2.33 (5.22/7.39/4.68 pp);
  DATA-01 3.03/3.31/2.03; ADVE-01 1.87/2.64/1.41; ECON-03 rank 1.87/1.90/1.19,
  log 2.80/3.03/1.67. Headline (2010-2025, S2, log, extended): t 1.55/2.50/1.73,
  Holm p 0.49/0.10/0.42, RW p 0.67/0.37/0.62, bootstrap CIs include zero.
- scripts/tables_rq3.py -> tab_rq3_v2, tab_rq3_headline, tab_app_crises_v2, tab_rq3_diag.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Simon-Pierre Boucher committed · Nov 4, 2026 parent a7156cb
10 changed files +19,998 −0 Browse files
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modified .gitignore +1 −0
@@ -30,3 +30,4 @@ data/processed/vix_daily.parquet
30 30 # Large regenerable result artefacts (Stage D)
31 31 results/*.parquet
32 32 external_data/
33 +data/processed/correlation_divergence_v2.parquet
added paper/tables/tab_app_crises_v2.tex +37 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
1 +\begin{table}[H]
2 +\centering
3 +\caption{Implied and realized correlation around major market events (both samples).}
4 +\label{tab:app_crises_v2}
5 +\begin{threeparttable}
6 +\footnotesize
7 +\begin{tabular}{@{}lrrrrrrr@{}}
8 +\toprule
9 +& \multicolumn{3}{c}{Implied correlation} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Realized corr.} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{VIX} \\
10 +\cmidrule(lr){2-4}\cmidrule(lr){5-6}\cmidrule(lr){7-8}
11 +Event & Pre & Post & $\Delta$ & Pre & Post & Pre & Post \\
12 +\midrule
13 +\multicolumn{8}{@{}l}{\textit{Panel A: rebuilt series, 2010--2025}} \\
14 +Flash Crash (May 2010) & 0.223 & 0.404 & +0.181 & 0.180 & 0.565 & 17.7 & 28.1 \\
15 +Euro crisis (Aug.\ 2011) & 0.317 & 0.468 & +0.151 & 0.381 & 0.731 & 20.4 & 40.3 \\
16 +China devaluation (Aug.\ 2015) & 0.228 & 0.487 & +0.259 & 0.285 & 0.640 & 14.3 & 30.6 \\
17 +Volmageddon (Feb.\ 2018) & 0.107 & 0.431 & +0.324 & 0.247 & 0.633 & 11.9 & 28.4 \\
18 +COVID-19 (Mar.\ 2020) & 0.466 & 0.637 & +0.171 & 0.606 & 0.783 & 36.5 & 70.0 \\
19 +Meme stocks (Jan.\ 2021) & 0.225 & 0.324 & +0.099 & 0.152 & 0.338 & 23.2 & 27.7 \\
20 +Rate shock (June 2022) & 0.414 & 0.445 & +0.031 & 0.546 & 0.606 & 26.9 & 31.4 \\
21 +SVB (Mar.\ 2023) & 0.329 & 0.371 & +0.042 & 0.323 & 0.363 & 20.3 & 24.9 \\
22 +VIX spike (Aug.\ 2024) & 0.136 & 0.312 & +0.176 & 0.086 & 0.253 & 15.6 & 24.2 \\
23 +\addlinespace
24 +\multicolumn{8}{@{}l}{\textit{Panel B: rebuilt series restricted to February 2016 onwards}} \\
25 +Volmageddon (Feb.\ 2018) & 0.107 & 0.431 & +0.324 & 0.247 & 0.633 & 11.9 & 28.4 \\
26 +COVID-19 (Mar.\ 2020) & 0.466 & 0.637 & +0.171 & 0.606 & 0.783 & 36.5 & 70.0 \\
27 +Meme stocks (Jan.\ 2021) & 0.225 & 0.324 & +0.099 & 0.152 & 0.338 & 23.2 & 27.7 \\
28 +Rate shock (June 2022) & 0.414 & 0.445 & +0.031 & 0.546 & 0.606 & 26.9 & 31.4 \\
29 +SVB (Mar.\ 2023) & 0.329 & 0.371 & +0.042 & 0.323 & 0.363 & 20.3 & 24.9 \\
30 +VIX spike (Aug.\ 2024) & 0.136 & 0.312 & +0.176 & 0.086 & 0.253 & 15.6 & 24.2 \\
31 +\bottomrule
32 +\end{tabular}
33 +\begin{tablenotes}[flushleft]\footnotesize
34 +\item \textit{Notes.} Pre: mean over the 30 calendar days before the event date; Post: mean over the 10 calendar days from the event date. Series rebuilt from the shipped parquets (29 constituents, NaN-tolerant realized correlation), so that all nine events are covered; version~1.2 reported only the six events after February 2016.
35 +\end{tablenotes}
36 +\end{threeparttable}
37 +\end{table}
added paper/tables/tab_rq3_diag.tex +28 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
1 +\begin{table}[H]
2 +\centering
3 +\caption{Implied-correlation series: construction diagnostics.}
4 +\label{tab:rq3_diag}
5 +\begin{threeparttable}
6 +\footnotesize
7 +\begin{tabular}{@{}ll@{}}
8 +\toprule
9 +Diagnostic & Value \\
10 +\midrule
11 +Constituents in the list & 29 (GOOGL removed: GOOG/GOOGL double count) \\
12 +Days in the rebuilt series & 3{,}678 (2010-01-11 to 2025-12-31) \\
13 +Days dropped ($n_{const}<20$) & 116 \\
14 +Share of days with implied correlation clipped at 0 & 0.98\% \\
15 +Share of days with implied correlation clipped at 1 & 0.00\% \\
16 +First day with a realized correlation & 2010-01-11 (shipped series: 2016-02-01) \\
17 +Minimum number of valid pairs & 325 of 406 \\
18 +Days with 20--25 / 26--28 / 29 constituents & 625 / 2215 / 838 \\
19 +Audit: 30-name rebuild vs shipped implied correlation & max $|\Delta|$ = 1.3e-15 on 3{,}794 days \\
20 +Audit: rebuilt vs shipped realized correlation (2016+) & mean $|\Delta|$ = 6.9e-03 \\
21 +VIX source & vix\_daily.parquet (FinData OS, scripts/19) \\
22 +\bottomrule
23 +\end{tabular}
24 +\begin{tablenotes}[flushleft]\footnotesize
25 +\item \textit{Notes.} Series rebuilt by stage 1b of \texttt{scripts/04} from \texttt{options\_features.parquet} (ATM IVs of SPX and the constituents, eq.~(implcorr)) and \texttt{realized\_vol.parquet} (22-day pairwise correlations with \texttt{min\_periods=15}; the February-2016 start of the shipped series was caused by a single constituent (AVGO) with missing returns, which made every window mean NaN). Entry dates of each constituent are in \texttt{results/rq3\_diagnostics.csv}.
26 +\end{tablenotes}
27 +\end{threeparttable}
28 +\end{table}
added paper/tables/tab_rq3_headline.tex +26 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
1 +\begin{table}[H]
2 +\centering
3 +\caption{RQ3 headline tests: post-origin stress, full sample, multiple-testing adjustment and episode-bootstrap intervals.}
4 +\label{tab:rq3_headline}
5 +\begin{threeparttable}
6 +\footnotesize
7 +\begin{tabular}{@{}llrrrrrcr@{}}
8 +\toprule
9 +Transform & $h$ & $b$ (pp) & $t_{NW(h)}$ & $p$ & $p_{\text{Holm}}$ & $p_{\text{RW}}$ & 95\% episode-bootstrap CI & Episodes \\
10 +\midrule
11 +raw ratio & 5 & 2.44 & 2.03 & 0.042 & 0.252 & 0.510 & [$-$0.88, 5.58] & 328 \\
12 +raw ratio & 10 & 5.17 & 3.47 & 0.001 & 0.005 & 0.119 & [0.46, 8.80] & 384 \\
13 +raw ratio & 20 & 4.08 & 2.26 & 0.024 & 0.166 & 0.454 & [$-$0.71, 8.32] & 378 \\
14 +log ratio & 5 & 1.77 & 1.55 & 0.121 & 0.486 & 0.665 & [$-$1.39, 5.18] & 328 \\
15 +log ratio & 10 & 4.20 & 2.50 & 0.012 & 0.099 & 0.373 & [$-$0.48, 8.75] & 384 \\
16 +log ratio & 20 & 3.78 & 1.73 & 0.084 & 0.419 & 0.616 & [$-$1.53, 9.28] & 378 \\
17 +rank & 5 & 0.66 & 0.58 & 0.559 & 0.559 & 0.665 & [$-$2.33, 4.03] & 328 \\
18 +rank & 10 & 2.32 & 1.38 & 0.166 & 0.498 & 0.665 & [$-$2.85, 7.26] & 384 \\
19 +rank & 20 & 2.69 & 1.24 & 0.216 & 0.498 & 0.665 & [$-$2.88, 8.31] & 378 \\
20 +\bottomrule
21 +\end{tabular}
22 +\begin{tablenotes}[flushleft]\footnotesize
23 +\item \textit{Notes.} The nine headline tests of the revision: rebuilt series 2010--2025 (3{,}668 days at $h=5$), post-origin stress definition S2, specification A with extended controls, LPM with Newey--West($h$) $t$-statistics. $p$: unadjusted two-sided normal $p$-value; $p_{\text{Holm}}$: Holm step-down over the nine tests; $p_{\text{RW}}$: Romano--Wolf step-down with the episode bootstrap. The 95\% interval and the Romano--Wolf null are obtained by resampling with replacement the maximal runs of equal target value (stress episodes and calm spells), 1{,}000 draws, seed 42. Coefficients in percentage points of probability per standard deviation of the (transformed) ratio.
24 +\end{tablenotes}
25 +\end{threeparttable}
26 +\end{table}
added paper/tables/tab_rq3_v2.tex +66 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
1 +\begin{table}[H]
2 +\centering
3 +\caption{Implied versus realized correlation as a predictor of market stress: stress definitions and transforms.}
4 +\label{tab:rq3_v2}
5 +\begin{threeparttable}
6 +\scriptsize
7 +\begin{tabular}{@{}lrrrrrr@{}}
8 +\toprule
9 +& \multicolumn{2}{c}{5-day} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{10-day} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{20-day} \\
10 +\cmidrule(lr){2-3}\cmidrule(lr){4-5}\cmidrule(lr){6-7}
11 +Stress definition, transform of $\hat\rho_{impl}/\hat\rho_{real}$ & $b$ & $(t)$ & $b$ & $(t)$ & $b$ & $(t)$ \\
12 +\midrule
13 +\multicolumn{7}{@{}l}{\textit{Panel A: shipped series (30 names), February 2016--December 2025}} \\
14 +\multicolumn{7}{@{}l}{\quad \textit{baseline controls}} \\
15 +S1, raw ratio & 5.22\sym{***} & (3.27) & 7.39\sym{***} & (4.13) & 4.68\sym{**} & (2.33) \\
16 +S1, log ratio & 4.55\sym{***} & (2.80) & 6.46\sym{***} & (3.03) & 4.38\sym{*} & (1.67) \\
17 +S1, rank & 3.21\sym{*} & (1.87) & 4.31\sym{*} & (1.90) & 3.10 & (1.19) \\
18 +S2, raw ratio & 2.73\sym{*} & (1.87) & 5.05\sym{***} & (2.64) & 3.32 & (1.41) \\
19 +S2, log ratio & 2.00 & (1.40) & 3.51\sym{*} & (1.68) & 1.88 & (0.68) \\
20 +S2, rank & 1.05 & (0.70) & 1.58 & (0.75) & 0.81 & (0.30) \\
21 +S3, raw ratio & 1.44 & (1.18) & 1.81 & (1.06) & 0.70 & (0.29) \\
22 +S3, log ratio & 0.66 & (0.59) & 0.82 & (0.53) & 0.13 & (0.06) \\
23 +S3, rank & 0.20 & (0.17) & 0.18 & (0.11) & $-$0.18 & ($-$0.08) \\
24 +\multicolumn{7}{@{}l}{\quad \textit{extended controls}} \\
25 +S1, raw ratio & 4.20\sym{***} & (2.68) & 6.77\sym{***} & (3.70) & 4.52\sym{**} & (2.15) \\
26 +S1, log ratio & 3.54\sym{**} & (2.22) & 5.85\sym{***} & (2.64) & 4.26 & (1.53) \\
27 +S1, rank & 2.22 & (1.35) & 3.60 & (1.56) & 2.90 & (1.06) \\
28 +S2, raw ratio & 3.79\sym{***} & (2.60) & 6.42\sym{***} & (3.43) & 5.07\sym{**} & (2.18) \\
29 +S2, log ratio & 3.28\sym{**} & (2.36) & 5.10\sym{**} & (2.42) & 3.87 & (1.37) \\
30 +S2, rank & 2.25 & (1.60) & 2.94 & (1.40) & 2.60 & (0.94) \\
31 +S3, raw ratio & 0.32 & (0.26) & 0.53 & (0.30) & $-$0.34 & ($-$0.14) \\
32 +S3, log ratio & $-$0.49 & ($-$0.44) & $-$0.56 & ($-$0.37) & $-$1.00 & ($-$0.43) \\
33 +S3, rank & $-$1.01 & ($-$0.86) & $-$1.23 & ($-$0.79) & $-$1.31 & ($-$0.56) \\
34 +$N$ (days), S2 & \multicolumn{2}{c}{2{,}486} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{2{,}481} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{2{,}471} \\
35 +Base rate, S2 & \multicolumn{2}{c}{0.300} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{0.420} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{0.571} \\
36 +\addlinespace
37 +\multicolumn{7}{@{}l}{\textit{Panel B: rebuilt series (29 names, NaN-tolerant realized correlation), January 2010--December 2025}} \\
38 +\multicolumn{7}{@{}l}{\quad \textit{baseline controls}} \\
39 +S1, raw ratio & 4.17\sym{***} & (3.17) & 5.83\sym{***} & (3.75) & 3.75\sym{**} & (2.24) \\
40 +S1, log ratio & 3.59\sym{***} & (2.70) & 4.99\sym{***} & (2.74) & 3.50 & (1.63) \\
41 +S1, rank & 2.45\sym{*} & (1.79) & 3.07 & (1.63) & 2.26 & (1.05) \\
42 +S2, raw ratio & 1.67 & (1.35) & 4.19\sym{***} & (2.71) & 2.78 & (1.52) \\
43 +S2, log ratio & 0.83 & (0.71) & 2.97\sym{*} & (1.78) & 2.09 & (0.98) \\
44 +S2, rank & $-$0.15 & ($-$0.13) & 1.32 & (0.79) & 1.22 & (0.58) \\
45 +S3, raw ratio & 0.90 & (0.98) & 1.42 & (1.03) & 0.40 & (0.23) \\
46 +S3, log ratio & 0.28 & (0.33) & 0.47 & (0.38) & 0.07 & (0.04) \\
47 +S3, rank & $-$0.15 & ($-$0.17) & $-$0.18 & ($-$0.15) & $-$0.23 & ($-$0.13) \\
48 +\multicolumn{7}{@{}l}{\quad \textit{extended controls}} \\
49 +S1, raw ratio & 2.93\sym{**} & (2.24) & 4.86\sym{***} & (3.05) & 3.24\sym{*} & (1.89) \\
50 +S1, log ratio & 2.17\sym{*} & (1.65) & 3.88\sym{**} & (2.07) & 2.95 & (1.32) \\
51 +S1, rank & 0.97 & (0.73) & 1.84 & (0.96) & 1.61 & (0.72) \\
52 +S2, raw ratio & 2.44\sym{**} & (2.03) & 5.17\sym{***} & (3.47) & 4.08\sym{**} & (2.26) \\
53 +S2, log ratio & 1.77 & (1.55) & 4.20\sym{**} & (2.50) & 3.78\sym{*} & (1.73) \\
54 +S2, rank & 0.66 & (0.58) & 2.32 & (1.38) & 2.69 & (1.24) \\
55 +S3, raw ratio & $-$0.26 & ($-$0.29) & 0.20 & (0.14) & $-$0.68 & ($-$0.37) \\
56 +S3, log ratio & $-$1.01 & ($-$1.17) & $-$0.93 & ($-$0.75) & $-$1.13 & ($-$0.66) \\
57 +S3, rank & $-$1.51\sym{*} & ($-$1.70) & $-$1.66 & ($-$1.38) & $-$1.48 & ($-$0.86) \\
58 +$N$ (days), S2 & \multicolumn{2}{c}{3{,}673} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{3{,}668} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{3{,}658} \\
59 +Base rate, S2 & \multicolumn{2}{c}{0.294} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{0.422} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{0.582} \\
60 +\bottomrule
61 +\end{tabular}
62 +\begin{tablenotes}[flushleft]\footnotesize
63 +\item \textit{Notes.} Linear probability models of the indicator that a stress event occurs within the next $h$ trading days on the standardized correlation ratio (specification A) and controls; coefficients in percentage points per standard deviation, Newey--West $t$-statistics with $h$ lags in parentheses. S1: shipped (VIX $>25$ or trailing 5-day VIX change $>20\%$ inside $[t+1,t+h]$). S2: post-origin (VIX$_{t+j}>25$ or VIX$_{t+j}/$VIX$_t-1>20\%$, $j\le h$). S3: realized (SPX return over $[t+1,t+h]\le-5\%$ or forward RV above trailing 95th pct.). S1 is the definition of version~1.2, in which four of the five days of the VIX change precede the forecast origin; S2 and S3 are strictly post-origin. Baseline controls: VIX level and SPX ATM IV; extended controls add the trailing 5-day VIX change, $\ln$ VIX and $\mathbf{1}[\text{VIX}_t>25]$. Panel A reproduces the shipped series of Table~12 of version~1.2 (S1, raw, baseline = the published cell); Panel B uses the series rebuilt on 2010--2025 from the shipped parquets (29 constituents, GOOGL removed; realized correlation from pairwise-complete 22-day windows; days with fewer than 20 constituents dropped). Logit (HAC) marginal effects, specifications B--D and the no-stress-at-origin subsample are in \texttt{results/rq3\_stress\_prediction\_v2.csv}. \sym{***}, \sym{**}, \sym{*}: $|t|>2.576$, $1.96$, $1.645$ (unadjusted).
64 +\end{tablenotes}
65 +\end{threeparttable}
66 +\end{table}
added results/rq3_bootstrap.csv +1001 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,1001 @@
1 +draw,raw_5d,raw_10d,raw_20d,log_5d,log_10d,log_20d,rank_5d,rank_10d,rank_20d
2 +1,0.006592630719711646,0.06964253926856402,0.04398035336325438,0.026601589522273286,0.047255957318229,0.041183290669697274,-0.005349780258632704,-0.0005555002290293798,0.030914407521979687
3 +2,0.04063856776318928,0.01724421642316833,0.07695741415019602,0.012163093958297322,0.05516407912317538,0.005341526646535754,-0.022927314960389668,0.03398417566129629,0.019324833693966176
4 +3,0.018725746367029686,0.06072474896679111,0.032278697669697126,0.012830227394706984,0.006708071555928102,0.05422554968380362,0.03240971227314028,0.002046609153723304,-0.013583822093879636
5 +4,0.0627845342786306,0.04842383619008686,0.012368188340334409,0.036549752133172485,0.028403142782397143,0.0027426903390516105,0.0002555014405949194,-0.0023491469661099627,0.034752711392226354
6 +5,0.0025627913470929785,0.06579548207136178,0.0629165299094631,0.016443388873013803,0.010227646832045134,0.04529188961787609,0.018854157403169224,0.008663338457441301,0.031431399533972795
7 +6,0.02728012980398985,0.08749402010309225,0.0244601862152226,0.032753925927376804,0.027018253410796955,0.06700799020573817,0.0062819459512238485,0.06573333754657185,0.05141157917084665
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9 +8,0.034663240136969,0.053882149515635185,0.05164136153454473,0.022803371663781834,0.02171837892573394,0.018553008788759682,0.012180230777842237,-0.0022240291853283353,0.08424783851115017
10 +9,0.03685595550417389,0.03098729099178989,0.07037647273276983,0.015081447407891992,0.02252947193805467,0.017069212998758156,-0.012457459348357784,0.03212752402430351,0.0727857103429811
11 +10,0.022128963669784393,0.04710600539358991,0.055744526635546084,0.04248232453382417,0.03673000645355323,0.011322569607744136,0.013941202269421167,0.06565406221954506,0.02514595611989321
12 +11,0.019000422985036944,0.04959851071823783,0.04321543717306787,0.0044847697734335884,0.0016368637474194773,0.02256868350212556,0.004239324161771487,0.018145234323266327,0.046086868156041134
13 +12,0.016953501680815216,0.02823137385324664,0.07414124810390645,0.004911872220713046,0.0365961730810095,0.025564540163145917,-0.0006174497126392147,0.034042091101675775,0.03957623766397916
14 +13,0.0034432059419330727,0.03868158052222045,0.05730684943283838,0.038710920348388474,0.047712303979473916,0.0568426525839144,0.027700150507655237,0.006223857678021554,0.001300119848629523
15 +14,0.022946786722916588,0.06394980624500128,0.010674656723985283,0.054044744586975134,0.062418201401470634,0.009427526120934946,0.0013592365298109768,0.09322419289196143,0.038697750517559366
16 +15,0.0010612968550383897,0.0616454750176255,0.03571511491146591,0.02642962436886683,0.053786498138874504,0.09475430705760023,-0.03075706325758107,0.05310832555618062,0.03757305560456383
17 +16,0.02236977567304931,0.05824960437855219,0.04286851606876069,0.021063012470533483,0.006013865625005357,0.05975610277682106,-0.013550856201604582,-0.006013942967483648,0.020584186631858455
18 +17,0.03438106817802631,0.03989832339286004,0.05658595331538123,0.025298390662731342,0.07335071972165391,0.054112321269603185,0.008557701569979747,0.04310868562370253,0.045785518494820765
19 +18,-0.001170357158626453,0.0710102949970936,0.046928879158903716,-0.022507048729730177,0.014435512342609645,0.02041167423014996,-0.01170224703498129,0.0009921657121065137,0.02990893391349982
20 +19,0.01987349667587802,0.050792039910252794,0.0319099640217574,0.029620855300238457,0.05600152516156326,0.010227219872643346,-0.01319238559716293,0.02173558800212419,0.058073187608853515
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991 +990,0.036060039571832486,0.05368245589329445,0.004767197644612673,0.02520209964472425,0.06006837912890528,0.07401268438795233,0.016846912483003552,0.05317026602753066,0.08690578862089585
992 +991,0.021343019613364416,0.038738839990069406,0.042459751922096306,0.02532776365189128,0.03243455093377157,-0.001329608699824493,0.007993191077604671,0.03903942150681087,0.04376298939240142
993 +992,0.02005554692423943,-0.010328780411297662,0.06470969832308943,0.009116960115004864,0.04927144780170249,0.02187685255267449,0.018409617266106265,-0.012439044749631352,-0.027243013527084407
994 +993,0.04983765134501264,0.057280823106759755,0.019691935785561415,0.031177738048966445,0.023729107491489577,0.04650340109066906,0.022867143280818975,-0.004270843475193488,-0.004886756821532315
995 +994,-0.006560760053979147,0.04539667530877598,-0.004375454719264208,0.01750425951194408,0.05150872787835828,0.012929181828427823,-0.007456105811794403,0.05396046955610991,0.036639365839943525
996 +995,0.0422874481948228,0.04431912120705289,0.05867922951028877,0.023810523952351014,0.07268109478112149,0.05852794824610561,0.009053601091808632,0.061468940811575244,-0.0009521678150636733
997 +996,0.008129670165558463,0.057278731570788076,0.037157347678873416,0.029020455227454053,0.024734751768365155,0.04056663700910921,0.024600343216898066,0.020812640912128796,0.013731666536970579
998 +997,0.020557886792788103,0.08124789630208593,0.009131065821480327,0.03159993663660335,0.05695504915982633,0.057591485392036,0.0213719253641672,0.027911224628511505,-0.01502804980936804
999 +998,0.031202862462065686,0.03209608277597911,0.015698001797411074,0.03149178283563138,0.045696500743733964,0.038063845327096966,0.018242434458383982,0.032396952010002984,0.029201729305008937
1000 +999,0.042629195187948464,0.05727250004008226,0.026170728530088803,0.0038676896679932277,0.03318519607152514,0.022246272044612898,-0.002143976218284248,0.035023263435239656,-0.0062085536901135135
1001 +1000,0.039566469899526,0.07897488938790836,0.043386727019793375,0.017217276805196906,0.06681944267368141,0.06443811532477246,0.015091086832515048,0.03891783146550055,0.04642892978298483
added results/rq3_crisis_analysis_v2.csv +16 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
1 +sample,crisis,pre_impl_corr,pre_real_corr,pre_divergence,post_impl_corr,post_real_corr,post_divergence,divergence_change,pre_vix,post_vix
2 +2016+,Volmageddon (2018-02-05),0.10725050656588538,0.24664067183889288,-0.1393901652730075,0.43129550617940215,0.632982281947551,-0.2016867757681488,-0.06229661049514132,11.880526315789474,28.423750000000002
3 +2016+,COVID Crash (2020-03-16),0.4655637448114786,0.6063939990609691,-0.14083025424949044,0.6367999986660984,0.7829436258193196,-0.1461436271532212,-0.0053133729037307675,36.54263157894737,70.0375
4 +2016+,Meme Stocks (2021-01-27),0.22490617816713124,0.15158407227888288,0.07332210588824832,0.32401450626238637,0.3375651776005222,-0.013550671338135811,-0.08687277722638413,23.154,27.7325
5 +2016+,Rate Shock (2022-06-13),0.4135431799549171,0.5460823672571122,-0.1325391873021951,0.44479966655319775,0.6056840765406982,-0.1608844099875005,-0.0283452226853054,26.90052631578947,31.364285714285717
6 +2016+,SVB Crisis (2023-03-10),0.3286024042895288,0.32340490899116214,0.00519749529836671,0.3709690368675124,0.3634713355306136,0.007497701336898782,0.0023002060385320725,20.32095238095238,24.948333333333334
7 +2016+,Aug VIX Spike (2024-08-05),0.13647547113676622,0.08624072907913286,0.050234742057633376,0.31206168557021613,0.2527378483516726,0.059323837218543514,0.009089095160910138,15.574999999999998,24.16375
8 +2010-2025,Flash Crash (2010-05-06),0.22274111823476653,0.1802351265264149,0.04250599170835166,0.40397480335090574,0.5647387543535963,-0.16076395100269064,-0.20326994271104232,17.73,28.119999999999997
9 +2010-2025,Euro Crisis (2011-08-05),0.3173495440685263,0.3808337453306064,-0.06348420126208011,0.46846842965311036,0.7305446217641839,-0.2620761921110736,-0.19859199084899348,20.369285714285713,40.282000000000004
10 +2010-2025,China Deval (2015-08-24),0.2279885526732514,0.2851966945524171,-0.057208141879165654,0.48699098312017197,0.6402264191315861,-0.15323543601141418,-0.09602729413224853,14.306000000000001,30.64375
11 +2010-2025,Volmageddon (2018-02-05),0.10725050656588538,0.24664067183889288,-0.1393901652730075,0.43129550617940215,0.632982281947551,-0.2016867757681488,-0.06229661049514132,11.880526315789474,28.423750000000002
12 +2010-2025,COVID Crash (2020-03-16),0.4655637448114786,0.6063939990609691,-0.14083025424949044,0.6367999986660984,0.7829436258193196,-0.1461436271532212,-0.0053133729037307675,36.54263157894737,70.0375
13 +2010-2025,Meme Stocks (2021-01-27),0.22490617816713124,0.15158407227888288,0.07332210588824832,0.32401450626238637,0.3375651776005222,-0.013550671338135811,-0.08687277722638413,23.154,27.7325
14 +2010-2025,Rate Shock (2022-06-13),0.4135431799549171,0.5460823672571122,-0.1325391873021951,0.44479966655319775,0.6056840765406982,-0.1608844099875005,-0.0283452226853054,26.90052631578947,31.364285714285717
15 +2010-2025,SVB Crisis (2023-03-10),0.3286024042895288,0.32340490899116214,0.00519749529836671,0.3709690368675124,0.3634713355306136,0.007497701336898782,0.0023002060385320725,20.32095238095238,24.948333333333334
16 +2010-2025,Aug VIX Spike (2024-08-05),0.13647547113676622,0.08624072907913286,0.050234742057633376,0.31206168557021613,0.2527378483516726,0.059323837218543514,0.009089095160910138,15.574999999999998,24.16375
added results/rq3_diagnostics.csv +52 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
1 +statistic,value,note
2 +n_constituents_in_list,29,"GOOGL removed (GOOG/GOOGL double count, WP07-DATA-10)"
3 +n_days_series,3678,2010-01-11 to 2025-12-31
4 +n_days_dropped_lt_min_constituents,116,n_constituents < 20
5 +share_days_implied_corr_clipped_at_0,0.009752240379546653,"raw implied correlation below 0 (clipped to 0), all days with SPX IV"
6 +share_days_implied_corr_clipped_at_1,0.0,raw implied correlation above 1 (clipped to 1)
7 +realized_corr_first_date,2010-01-11,"NaN-tolerant 22-day correlation, min_periods=15"
8 +realized_corr_min_valid_pairs,325,of 406 pairs
9 +vix_source,"vix_daily.parquet (FinData OS, scripts/19)",
10 +vix_missing_days,0,
11 +n_constituents_hist_20,49,days
12 +n_constituents_hist_21,75,days
13 +n_constituents_hist_22,72,days
14 +n_constituents_hist_23,104,days
15 +n_constituents_hist_24,126,days
16 +n_constituents_hist_25,199,days
17 +n_constituents_hist_26,164,days
18 +n_constituents_hist_27,439,days
19 +n_constituents_hist_28,1612,days
20 +n_constituents_hist_29,838,days
21 +entry_date_AAPL,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
22 +entry_date_UNH,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
23 +entry_date_PG,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
24 +entry_date_PFE,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
25 +entry_date_NVDA,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
26 +entry_date_NFLX,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
27 +entry_date_MSFT,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
28 +entry_date_MA,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
29 +entry_date_LLY,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
30 +entry_date_WFC,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
31 +entry_date_INTC,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
32 +entry_date_JPM,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
33 +entry_date_GS,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
34 +entry_date_ADBE,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
35 +entry_date_AMD,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
36 +entry_date_AMZN,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
37 +entry_date_HD,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
38 +entry_date_CRM,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
39 +entry_date_BAC,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
40 +entry_date_CVX,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
41 +entry_date_DIS,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
42 +entry_date_GOOG,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
43 +entry_date_XOM,2010-01-11,first day with a 30d ATM IV
44 +entry_date_KO,2010-01-12,first day with a 30d ATM IV
45 +entry_date_JNJ,2010-01-12,first day with a 30d ATM IV
46 +entry_date_V,2010-01-12,first day with a 30d ATM IV
47 +entry_date_AVGO,2010-01-19,first day with a 30d ATM IV
48 +entry_date_TSLA,2010-07-12,first day with a 30d ATM IV
49 +entry_date_META,2021-07-16,first day with a 30d ATM IV
50 +audit_30name_implied_corr_max_abs_diff_vs_shipped,1.3322676295501878e-15,3794 days
51 +audit_30name_n_constituents_identical,True,
52 +audit_29name_realized_corr_mean_abs_diff_vs_shipped_2016plus,0.006880030720292184,2491 days with a shipped value
added results/rq3_headline.csv +10 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
1 +series,sample,definition,transform,horizon,spec,controls,estimator,coefficient,coefficient_pp,se_nw,t_nw,p_raw,boot_ci_lo_pp,boot_ci_hi_pp,boot_se_pp,n_episodes,n_obs,base_rate,r2,p_holm,p_romano_wolf
2 +v2,2010-2025,S2,raw,5d,A: ratio,extended,LPM NW(h),0.02443065366208745,2.443065366208745,0.01200963352751072,2.034254717774996,0.04192592019532658,-0.879956126407108,5.577730507254994,1.6887734605027422,328,3668,0.29389312977099236,0.30961315155488633,0.25155552117195945,0.5104895104895105
3 +v2,2010-2025,S2,raw,10d,A: ratio,extended,LPM NW(h),0.05170153800795068,5.170153800795068,0.01488580939425295,3.473209728717297,0.0005142733158729712,0.46181850361491056,8.79612469575562,2.115804546413298,384,3663,0.4215124215124215,0.18072169625318968,0.004628459842856741,0.11888111888111888
4 +v2,2010-2025,S2,raw,20d,A: ratio,extended,LPM NW(h),0.04080932572644176,4.080932572644176,0.018042409641204172,2.2618556244972887,0.023706324827577126,-0.7132217134299368,8.322288988679603,2.375907051246001,378,3653,0.581713660005475,0.0979827006350934,0.1659442737930399,0.45354645354645357
5 +v2,2010-2025,S2,log,5d,A: ratio,extended,LPM NW(h),0.017711363378218534,1.7711363378218534,0.011433918688213572,1.5490195322515228,0.12137702478478515,-1.3859727861621158,5.184563146580294,1.6827373896837143,328,3668,0.29389312977099236,0.3083020149290817,0.4855080991391406,0.6653346653346653
6 +v2,2010-2025,S2,log,10d,A: ratio,extended,LPM NW(h),0.04203559069707101,4.203559069707101,0.016811722913796838,2.500373751852272,0.012406234301738015,-0.4762235501178801,8.7549573863527,2.3867343068837066,384,3663,0.4215124215124215,0.17704249344644796,0.09924987441390412,0.3726273726273726
7 +v2,2010-2025,S2,log,20d,A: ratio,extended,LPM NW(h),0.03778564673601605,3.7785646736016054,0.021849928464648186,1.7293258784417012,0.08375078757168437,-1.5295393720441717,9.276614839267468,2.7622395525522476,378,3653,0.581713660005475,0.09687890897347295,0.41875393785842185,0.6163836163836164
8 +v2,2010-2025,S2,rank,5d,A: ratio,extended,LPM NW(h),0.0066211447920053925,0.6621144792005392,0.011342747804085805,0.583733757143077,0.5593994519750358,-2.3293974456276545,4.025130368208886,1.6570847194016924,328,3668,0.29389312977099236,0.3071479505087843,0.5593994519750358,0.6653346653346653
9 +v2,2010-2025,S2,rank,10d,A: ratio,extended,LPM NW(h),0.02322015157974412,2.3220151579744117,0.016766711029695933,1.3848960322998554,0.16608426043740354,-2.852473489333658,7.257618757585309,2.525921772050509,384,3663,0.4215124215124215,0.1725831107845177,0.4982527813122106,0.6653346653346653
10 +v2,2010-2025,S2,rank,20d,A: ratio,extended,LPM NW(h),0.02691321863545477,2.691321863545477,0.02174354587674169,1.2377566560679,0.2158063044619667,-2.881343481924951,8.310673603906087,2.846814521489002,378,3653,0.581713660005475,0.0943292181818004,0.4982527813122106,0.6653346653346653
added results/rq3_stress_prediction_v2.csv +18761 −0
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