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1\begin{table}[htbp]2\centering\footnotesize3\begin{threeparttable}4\caption{Scheduled macroeconomic releases and the risk-neutral expected policy change}5\label{tab:event_study}6\setlength{\tabcolsep}{4pt}7\begin{tabular}{l l r rrr rrr}8\toprule9\multicolumn{9}{l}{\textit{Panel A: individual releases in the sample}} \\10\addlinespace[2pt]11 & & $\mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}_t[\Delta r]$ & \multicolumn{3}{c}{$\Delta \mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}[\Delta r]$ (bps)} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{$\Delta p_{\text{No change}}$ (pp)} \\12\cmidrule(lr){4-6}\cmidrule(lr){7-9}13Release & Date & level (bps) & $[0]$ & $[-1,+1]$ & $[-3,+3]$ & $[0]$ & $[-1,+1]$ & $[-3,+3]$ \\14\midrule15 FOMC & 17 Dec 2025 & -11.6 & 0.39 & 1.23 & 1.03 & 1.50 & 0.00 & 0.00 \\16 FOMC & 28 Jan 2026 & -14.5 & 0.99 & -1.06 & 1.08 & -11.50 & -9.00 & -10.00 \\17 FOMC & 18 Mar 2026 & -1.6 & 6.02 & 6.28 & 6.05 & 23.00 & 24.00 & 22.00 \\18 FOMC & 06 May 2026 & -0.7 & -0.12 & -0.30 & 0.54 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 1.95 \\19 CPI & 14 Jan 2026 & -14.1 & -0.04 & -0.40 & 0.13 & 0.00 & 0.00 & -1.00 \\20 CPI & 11 Feb 2026 & -15.5 & 1.24 & 0.19 & 0.34 & 7.00 & 7.00 & 8.00 \\21 CPI & 11 Mar 2026 & -9.1 & 1.32 & -0.48 & 2.50 & 4.00 & 1.50 & 11.00 \\22 CPI & 12 May 2026 & -0.3 & 0.15 & 0.20 & 0.22 & 0.90 & 0.60 & 1.00 \\23 Employment report & 09 Jan 2026 & -12.7 & -1.66 & -3.44 & -3.27 & -0.50 & 0.00 & 0.00 \\24 Employment report & 06 Feb 2026 & -15.8 & -0.68 & -1.38 & -1.92 & -3.50 & -11.50 & -11.50 \\25 Employment report & 06 Mar 2026 & -8.1 & -1.02 & -2.21 & 3.28 & -12.00 & -11.50 & 8.00 \\26 Employment report & 04 Apr 2026 & -1.3 & -0.96 & -1.48 & -0.50 & 6.00 & 4.00 & 6.00 \\27 Employment report & 08 May 2026 & -0.4 & 0.31 & 0.45 & -0.06 & 1.55 & 1.95 & 1.15 \\28\bottomrule29\end{tabular}\par\bigskip30\begin{tabular}{l r rrrrr rrrrr}31\toprule32\multicolumn{12}{l}{\textit{Panel B: absolute daily changes on release days versus all other days}} \\33\addlinespace[2pt]34 & & \multicolumn{5}{c}{$|\Delta \mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}[\Delta r]|$ (bps)} & \multicolumn{5}{c}{$|\Delta p_{\text{No change}}|$ (pp)} \\35\cmidrule(lr){3-7}\cmidrule(lr){8-12}36Days & $K$ & Ann. & Other & VR & $p_{BF}$ & $p_{MW}$ & Ann. & Other & VR & $p_{BF}$ & $p_{MW}$ \\37\midrule38 All scheduled releases & 13 & 1.15 & 0.51 & 4.85 & 0.008 & 0.012 & 5.50 & 1.38 & 14.23 & 0.000 & 0.003 \\39 FOMC & 4 & 1.88 & 0.53 & 10.60 & 0.004 & 0.113 & 9.00 & 1.55 & 30.44 & 0.000 & 0.083 \\40 CPI & 4 & 0.69 & 0.56 & 0.51 & 0.908 & 0.352 & 2.98 & 1.72 & 0.92 & 0.576 & 0.176 \\41 Employment report & 5 & 0.93 & 0.56 & 0.52 & 0.798 & 0.018 & 4.71 & 1.65 & 4.47 & 0.023 & 0.013 \\42 Weekend vs.\ weekday (no release) & 41 & 0.37 & 0.58 & 0.33 & 0.113 & 0.861 & 0.91 & 1.59 & 0.34 & 0.053 & 0.970 \\43\bottomrule44\end{tabular}45\begin{tablenotes}46\small47\item \textit{Notes:} $\mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}_t[\Delta r]=\sum_j q_{j,t}\,x_j$ with $x=(-50,-25,0,25,50)$ basis points and $q_{j,t}=p_{j,t}/\Sigma_t$; the open-ended states are valued at $\pm 50$ bps. Day 0 is the UTC calendar day of the release (FOMC statements at 14:00 ET, CPI and employment reports at 08:30 ET), which is contained in the Polymarket close of that day (00:00 UTC). Windows cumulate daily changes; the 3 April 2026 employment report (Good Friday) is assigned the first subsequent close, and the 14 April 2026 CPI release has no close within two days and is dropped. Panel B compares absolute daily changes on the $K$ release days with all other days ($T=145$ daily changes, listing day excluded): ``Ann.'' and ``Other'' are means, VR is the ratio of variances, $p_{BF}$ the Brown--Forsythe test of equal variances and $p_{MW}$ the one-sided Mann--Whitney test that absolute changes are larger on release days. The last row compares weekend days with weekdays among non-release days. For comparison, the absolute daily change in the 10-year Treasury yield (CBOE TNX) is 3.2 bps on release days versus 3.3 bps otherwise (variance ratio 0.90, $p_{BF}=0.966$).48\end{tablenotes}49\end{threeparttable}50\end{table}