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1\begin{table}[htbp]2\centering3\begin{threeparttable}4\caption{Event Study: Cumulative Abnormal Returns Around Macroeconomic Events}5\label{tab:event_study}6\begin{tabular}{l l c c c c}7\toprule8Event Type & Window & {CAR} & {$t$-stat} & {$p$-value} & $N$ \\9\midrule10 FOMC: 25 bps decrease & [-3,3] & $-0.615$ & -5.89 & 0.107 & 2 \\11 FOMC: 25 bps increase & [-3,3] & $-0.054$ & -0.21 & 0.866 & 2 \\12 FOMC: 50+ bps decrease & [-3,3] & $-0.041$ & -0.08 & 0.951 & 2 \\13 FOMC: 50+ bps increase & [-3,3] & $-0.599$ & -0.88 & 0.542 & 2 \\14 FOMC: No change & [-3,3] & $0.115$ & 0.52 & 0.694 & 2 \\15 CPI: 25 bps decrease & [-3,3] & $-0.116$ & -1.49 & 0.275 & 3 \\16 CPI: 25 bps increase & [-3,3] & $-0.999^{*}$ & -3.01 & 0.095 & 3 \\17 CPI: 50+ bps decrease & [-3,3] & $-0.228$ & -2.83 & 0.105 & 3 \\18 CPI: 50+ bps increase & [-3,3] & $-0.545$ & -1.56 & 0.260 & 3 \\19 CPI: No change & [-3,3] & $0.023$ & 0.28 & 0.807 & 3 \\20 Election: Donald Trump & [-5,5] & $-0.057$ & -0.88 & 0.470 & 3 \\21\bottomrule22\end{tabular}23\begin{tablenotes}24\small25\item \textit{Notes:} This table reports cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) for prediction market26prices around macroeconomic events. Abnormal returns are computed relative to a constant mean27model estimated over a 60-day estimation window. $t$-statistics are computed using the28cross-sectional standard deviation of CARs. $^{***}$, $^{**}$, $^{*}$ denote29significance at 1\%, 5\%, 10\%.30\end{tablenotes}31\end{threeparttable}32\end{table}