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N7: external consistency of 8-K mentions with 8-K item codes extracted from the body text (proxy, not precision/recall)

Items: FIRC0001-EDIT-01 (external benchmark), AI_C-19.
Item codes found in 99.7% of the 400,601 8-K sections; P(ma_integration | Item 2.01) = 0.91 [0.90, 0.92] vs 0.03 for Item 5.02 (control);
P(Item 2.01 or 1.01 | ma_integration) = 0.47; P(cost_reduction | Item 2.05) = 0.71 (lift 92x); by year, weight tercile and run.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Simon-Pierre Boucher committed (Nov 5, 2026) parent 6a7431b Browse files

7 changed files +498 −0

7 changed files
Unified Split
added code/audit/a07_8k_item_benchmark.py +69 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
1+"""N7 - external consistency of 8-K mentions with the 8-K item codes found in the body text (cluster A, proxy).
2+
3+The archived submissions/<cik>.json files hold only the entity header, so item codes are extracted from the
4+8-K full_body text: regexp 'Item\\s+([1-9]\\.[0-9]{2})' (case-insensitive). Reported as a consistency proxy,
5+not precision/recall. Read-only.
6+"""
7+from __future__ import annotations
8+import json, sys, math
9+from pathlib import Path
10+sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent))
11+from common import *
12+
13+r = Run("benchmark_8k")
14+con = connect(SPID_DB)
15+tmin = con.execute("select min(extracted_at) from extracted_sections").fetchone()[0]
16+print("extracting item codes from 8-K bodies ...", flush=True)
17+con.execute(f"""CREATE TEMP TABLE k8 AS
18+SELECT e.section_id, e.accession_number, e.n_mentions, CASE WHEN e.extracted_at = TIMESTAMP '{tmin}' THEN 'backfilled_june' ELSE 'october' END run,
19+ f.cik, year(f.filing_date) yr, co.russell_weight_pct, co.in_sp500,
20+ list_distinct(regexp_extract_all(s.text, '(?i)item\\s+([1-9]\\.[0-9]{{2}})', 1)) items,
21+ s.word_count, regexp_matches(s.text, '\\b(project|initiative|program|invest|expan|construct|build|launch|develop|deploy|implement|acqui|partner|facilit|capacity|capital|migrat|transform|pipeline|plant|data ?cent|automat|sustainab|renewable|restructur)\\w*', 'i') gate
22+FROM extracted_sections e JOIN src_sections s USING (section_id) JOIN src_filings f ON f.accession_number = e.accession_number LEFT JOIN src_companies co ON f.cik = co.cik
23+WHERE f.form_type = '8-K'""")
24+S = {}
25+S["sections_8k"] = con.execute("select count(*) from k8").fetchone()[0]
26+S["sections_with_item_code"] = con.execute("select count(*) from k8 where len(items)>0").fetchone()[0]
27+S["coverage_pct"] = round(100.0 * S["sections_with_item_code"] / S["sections_8k"], 2)
28+r.dump("item_code_distribution.csv", con, "SELECT item, count(*) sections FROM (SELECT unnest(items) item FROM k8) GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 2 DESC")
29+r.dump("item_code_coverage_by_year.csv", con, "SELECT yr, count(*) sections, count(*) FILTER (WHERE len(items)>0) with_code, round(100.0*count(*) FILTER (WHERE len(items)>0)/count(*),2) pct FROM k8 GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1")
30+con.execute("""CREATE TEMP TABLE mt AS SELECT section_id, bool_or(project_type='ma_integration') ma, bool_or(project_type='cost_reduction') cost, bool_or(project_type='partnership') partn,
31+ bool_or(project_type IN ('capex_program','plant_construction','manufacturing_expansion','infrastructure','data_center')) capex FROM project_mentions GROUP BY 1""")
32+con.execute("""CREATE TEMP TABLE j AS SELECT k.*, coalesce(m.ma,FALSE) ma, coalesce(m.cost,FALSE) cost, coalesce(m.partn,FALSE) partn, coalesce(m.capex,FALSE) capex,
33+ list_contains(items,'2.01') i201, list_contains(items,'1.01') i101, list_contains(items,'2.05') i205, list_contains(items,'8.01') i801, list_contains(items,'5.02') i502, list_contains(items,'2.03') i203, list_contains(items,'7.01') i701,
34+ list_contains(items,'2.01') OR list_contains(items,'1.01') i201or101,
35+ CASE WHEN russell_weight_pct IS NULL THEN 'na' ELSE ntile(3) OVER (PARTITION BY russell_weight_pct IS NULL ORDER BY russell_weight_pct) ::varchar END tercile
36+ FROM k8 k LEFT JOIN mt m USING (section_id)""")
37+def wilson(k, n, z=1.96):
38+ if n == 0: return (None, None, None)
39+ p = k/n; d = 1 + z*z/n; c = (p + z*z/(2*n))/d; h = z*math.sqrt(p*(1-p)/n + z*z/(4*n*n))/d
40+ return (round(p, 4), round(c-h, 4), round(c+h, 4))
41+PAIRS = [("ma_integration", "ma", "Item 2.01", "i201"), ("ma_integration", "ma", "Item 2.01 or 1.01", "i201or101"), ("ma_integration", "ma", "Item 1.01", "i101"),
42+ ("cost_reduction", "cost", "Item 2.05", "i205"), ("partnership", "partn", "Item 1.01", "i101"), ("capex-type", "capex", "Item 1.01", "i101"),
43+ ("ma_integration", "ma", "Item 8.01 (control)", "i801"), ("ma_integration", "ma", "Item 5.02 (control)", "i502"), ("cost_reduction", "cost", "Item 8.01 (control)", "i801"),
44+ ("ma_integration", "ma", "Item 2.03 (control)", "i203"), ("partnership", "partn", "Item 8.01 (control)", "i801")]
45+rows = []
46+def block(where, label_scope, label_group):
47+ for tname, tcol, iname, icol in PAIRS:
48+ n_i, k_ti, n_t, k_it, n_all, k_ti_only, k_i_only, k_both = con.execute(f"""
49+ SELECT count(*) FILTER (WHERE {icol}), count(*) FILTER (WHERE {icol} AND {tcol}), count(*) FILTER (WHERE {tcol}), count(*) FILTER (WHERE {tcol} AND {icol}), count(*),
50+ count(*) FILTER (WHERE {tcol} AND NOT {icol}), count(*) FILTER (WHERE {icol} AND NOT {tcol}), count(*) FILTER (WHERE {icol} AND {tcol})
51+ FROM j WHERE {where}""").fetchone()
52+ p1 = wilson(k_ti, n_i); p2 = wilson(k_it, n_t)
53+ base = wilson(n_t, n_all)
54+ rows.append((label_scope, label_group, tname, iname, n_all, n_i, k_ti, *p1, n_t, k_it, *p2, *base, round((p1[0]/base[0]) if (p1[0] is not None and base[0]) else float('nan'), 3)))
55+block("TRUE", "all_8k_sections", "all")
56+block("gate AND word_count >= 30", "calls_only", "all")
57+block("len(items) > 0", "sections_with_item_code", "all")
58+for yr in range(2010, 2027):
59+ block(f"len(items) > 0 AND yr = {yr}", "sections_with_item_code", f"year={yr}")
60+for t in ("1", "2", "3", "na"):
61+ block(f"len(items) > 0 AND tercile = '{t}'", "sections_with_item_code", f"weight_tercile={t}")
62+for rn in ("backfilled_june", "october"):
63+ block(f"len(items) > 0 AND run = '{rn}'", "sections_with_item_code", f"run={rn}")
64+r.write_csv("item_vs_type.csv", ["scope", "group", "project_type", "item", "n_sections", "n_item", "n_item_and_type", "p_type_given_item", "ci_low_1", "ci_high_1",
65+ "n_type", "n_type_and_item", "p_item_given_type", "ci_low_2", "ci_high_2", "base_rate_type", "base_ci_low", "base_ci_high", "lift_type_given_item"], rows)
66+S["tercile_bounds"] = con.execute("select tercile, min(russell_weight_pct), max(russell_weight_pct), count(distinct cik) from j group by 1 order by 1").fetchall()
67+r.dump("items_in_ma_sections.csv", con, "SELECT item, count(*) sections FROM (SELECT unnest(items) item FROM j WHERE ma) GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 2 DESC LIMIT 25")
68+r.write_json("summary.json", S)
69+r.finish()
added results/benchmark_8k/item_code_coverage_by_year.csv +18 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
1+yr,sections,with_code,pct
2+2010,17672,17608,99.64
3+2011,18533,18496,99.8
4+2012,19436,19400,99.81
5+2013,19771,19736,99.82
6+2014,20926,20886,99.81
7+2015,22077,22030,99.79
8+2016,22447,22389,99.74
9+2017,22897,22820,99.66
10+2018,23709,23618,99.62
11+2019,24256,24139,99.52
12+2020,27424,27293,99.52
13+2021,27944,27859,99.7
14+2022,26532,26472,99.77
15+2023,26851,26801,99.81
16+2024,27438,27394,99.84
17+2025,28716,28664,99.82
18+2026,23972,23938,99.86
added results/benchmark_8k/item_code_distribution.csv +41 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
1+item,sections
2+9.01,320370
3+2.02,132020
4+7.01,98001
5+8.01,92840
6+5.02,71781
7+1.01,46888
8+5.07,31963
9+2.03,22460
10+5.03,11798
11+3.02,6003
12+2.01,5456
13+1.02,4763
14+3.03,3009
15+2.05,1700
16+4.01,1364
17+3.01,1270
18+2.06,654
19+5.05,539
20+5.01,518
21+4.02,427
22+2.04,371
23+5.04,323
24+5.08,224
25+1.04,156
26+5.06,132
27+1.03,72
28+1.05,39
29+6.01,21
30+8.02,19
31+4.04,9
32+9.09,4
33+9.02,4
34+1.10,2
35+7.02,2
36+3.04,2
37+8.10,1
38+9.03,1
39+7.07,1
40+9.10,1
41+2.10,1
added results/benchmark_8k/item_vs_type.csv +287 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,287 @@
1+scope,group,project_type,item,n_sections,n_item,n_item_and_type,p_type_given_item,ci_low_1,ci_high_1,n_type,n_type_and_item,p_item_given_type,ci_low_2,ci_high_2,base_rate_type,base_ci_low,base_ci_high,lift_type_given_item
2+all_8k_sections,all,ma_integration,Item 2.01,400601,5456,4968,0.9106,0.9027,0.9178,37998,4968,0.1307,0.1274,0.1342,0.0949,0.0939,0.0958,9.595
3+all_8k_sections,all,ma_integration,Item 2.01 or 1.01,400601,49868,17751,0.356,0.3518,0.3602,37998,17751,0.4672,0.4621,0.4722,0.0949,0.0939,0.0958,3.751
4+all_8k_sections,all,ma_integration,Item 1.01,400601,46888,14894,0.3177,0.3135,0.3219,37998,14894,0.392,0.3871,0.3969,0.0949,0.0939,0.0958,3.348
5+all_8k_sections,all,cost_reduction,Item 2.05,400601,1700,1205,0.7088,0.6868,0.7299,3071,1205,0.3924,0.3753,0.4098,0.0077,0.0074,0.0079,92.052
6+all_8k_sections,all,partnership,Item 1.01,400601,46888,1876,0.04,0.0383,0.0418,4453,1876,0.4213,0.4069,0.4359,0.0111,0.0108,0.0114,3.604
7+all_8k_sections,all,capex-type,Item 1.01,400601,46888,6209,0.1324,0.1294,0.1355,13270,6209,0.4679,0.4594,0.4764,0.0331,0.0326,0.0337,4.0
8+all_8k_sections,all,ma_integration,Item 8.01 (control),400601,92840,18510,0.1994,0.1968,0.202,37998,18510,0.4871,0.4821,0.4922,0.0949,0.0939,0.0958,2.101
9+all_8k_sections,all,ma_integration,Item 5.02 (control),400601,71781,2239,0.0312,0.0299,0.0325,37998,2239,0.0589,0.0566,0.0613,0.0949,0.0939,0.0958,0.329
10+all_8k_sections,all,cost_reduction,Item 8.01 (control),400601,92840,1384,0.0149,0.0141,0.0157,3071,1384,0.4507,0.4331,0.4683,0.0077,0.0074,0.0079,1.935
11+all_8k_sections,all,ma_integration,Item 2.03 (control),400601,22460,4721,0.2102,0.2049,0.2156,37998,4721,0.1242,0.121,0.1276,0.0949,0.0939,0.0958,2.215
12+all_8k_sections,all,partnership,Item 8.01 (control),400601,92840,1556,0.0168,0.016,0.0176,4453,1556,0.3494,0.3356,0.3636,0.0111,0.0108,0.0114,1.514
13+calls_only,all,ma_integration,Item 2.01,204442,5422,4968,0.9163,0.9086,0.9233,37998,4968,0.1307,0.1274,0.1342,0.1859,0.1842,0.1876,4.929
14+calls_only,all,ma_integration,Item 2.01 or 1.01,204442,44543,17751,0.3985,0.394,0.4031,37998,17751,0.4672,0.4621,0.4722,0.1859,0.1842,0.1876,2.144
15+calls_only,all,ma_integration,Item 1.01,204442,41596,14894,0.3581,0.3535,0.3627,37998,14894,0.392,0.3871,0.3969,0.1859,0.1842,0.1876,1.926
16+calls_only,all,cost_reduction,Item 2.05,204442,1642,1205,0.7339,0.712,0.7547,3071,1205,0.3924,0.3753,0.4098,0.015,0.0145,0.0156,48.927
17+calls_only,all,partnership,Item 1.01,204442,41596,1876,0.0451,0.0431,0.0471,4453,1876,0.4213,0.4069,0.4359,0.0218,0.0212,0.0224,2.069
18+calls_only,all,capex-type,Item 1.01,204442,41596,6209,0.1493,0.1459,0.1527,13270,6209,0.4679,0.4594,0.4764,0.0649,0.0638,0.066,2.3
19+calls_only,all,ma_integration,Item 8.01 (control),204442,58038,18510,0.3189,0.3151,0.3227,37998,18510,0.4871,0.4821,0.4922,0.1859,0.1842,0.1876,1.715
20+calls_only,all,ma_integration,Item 5.02 (control),204442,38291,2239,0.0585,0.0562,0.0609,37998,2239,0.0589,0.0566,0.0613,0.1859,0.1842,0.1876,0.315
21+calls_only,all,cost_reduction,Item 8.01 (control),204442,58038,1384,0.0238,0.0226,0.0251,3071,1384,0.4507,0.4331,0.4683,0.015,0.0145,0.0156,1.587
22+calls_only,all,ma_integration,Item 2.03 (control),204442,20651,4721,0.2286,0.2229,0.2344,37998,4721,0.1242,0.121,0.1276,0.1859,0.1842,0.1876,1.23
23+calls_only,all,partnership,Item 8.01 (control),204442,58038,1556,0.0268,0.0255,0.0282,4453,1556,0.3494,0.3356,0.3636,0.0218,0.0212,0.0224,1.229
24+sections_with_item_code,all,ma_integration,Item 2.01,399543,5456,4968,0.9106,0.9027,0.9178,37941,4968,0.1309,0.1276,0.1344,0.095,0.0941,0.0959,9.585
25+sections_with_item_code,all,ma_integration,Item 2.01 or 1.01,399543,49868,17751,0.356,0.3518,0.3602,37941,17751,0.4679,0.4628,0.4729,0.095,0.0941,0.0959,3.747
26+sections_with_item_code,all,ma_integration,Item 1.01,399543,46888,14894,0.3177,0.3135,0.3219,37941,14894,0.3926,0.3877,0.3975,0.095,0.0941,0.0959,3.344
27+sections_with_item_code,all,cost_reduction,Item 2.05,399543,1700,1205,0.7088,0.6868,0.7299,3061,1205,0.3937,0.3765,0.4111,0.0077,0.0074,0.0079,92.052
28+sections_with_item_code,all,partnership,Item 1.01,399543,46888,1876,0.04,0.0383,0.0418,4447,1876,0.4219,0.4074,0.4364,0.0111,0.0108,0.0115,3.604
29+sections_with_item_code,all,capex-type,Item 1.01,399543,46888,6209,0.1324,0.1294,0.1355,13235,6209,0.4691,0.4606,0.4776,0.0331,0.0326,0.0337,4.0
30+sections_with_item_code,all,ma_integration,Item 8.01 (control),399543,92840,18510,0.1994,0.1968,0.202,37941,18510,0.4879,0.4828,0.4929,0.095,0.0941,0.0959,2.099
31+sections_with_item_code,all,ma_integration,Item 5.02 (control),399543,71781,2239,0.0312,0.0299,0.0325,37941,2239,0.059,0.0567,0.0614,0.095,0.0941,0.0959,0.328
32+sections_with_item_code,all,cost_reduction,Item 8.01 (control),399543,92840,1384,0.0149,0.0141,0.0157,3061,1384,0.4521,0.4346,0.4698,0.0077,0.0074,0.0079,1.935
33+sections_with_item_code,all,ma_integration,Item 2.03 (control),399543,22460,4721,0.2102,0.2049,0.2156,37941,4721,0.1244,0.1211,0.1278,0.095,0.0941,0.0959,2.213
34+sections_with_item_code,all,partnership,Item 8.01 (control),399543,92840,1556,0.0168,0.016,0.0176,4447,1556,0.3499,0.336,0.364,0.0111,0.0108,0.0115,1.514
35+sections_with_item_code,year=2010,ma_integration,Item 2.01,17608,252,235,0.9325,0.8946,0.9575,1675,235,0.1403,0.1245,0.1578,0.0951,0.0909,0.0995,9.805
36+sections_with_item_code,year=2010,ma_integration,Item 2.01 or 1.01,17608,2191,819,0.3738,0.3538,0.3943,1675,819,0.489,0.4651,0.5129,0.0951,0.0909,0.0995,3.931
37+sections_with_item_code,year=2010,ma_integration,Item 1.01,17608,2042,680,0.333,0.3129,0.3537,1675,680,0.406,0.3827,0.4297,0.0951,0.0909,0.0995,3.502
38+sections_with_item_code,year=2010,cost_reduction,Item 2.05,17608,86,59,0.686,0.5818,0.7744,145,59,0.4069,0.3303,0.4883,0.0082,0.007,0.0097,83.659
39+sections_with_item_code,year=2010,partnership,Item 1.01,17608,2042,79,0.0387,0.0312,0.048,202,79,0.3911,0.3264,0.4598,0.0115,0.01,0.0132,3.365
40+sections_with_item_code,year=2010,capex-type,Item 1.01,17608,2042,223,0.1092,0.0964,0.1235,544,223,0.4099,0.3694,0.4517,0.0309,0.0284,0.0336,3.534
41+sections_with_item_code,year=2010,ma_integration,Item 8.01 (control),17608,4272,734,0.1718,0.1608,0.1834,1675,734,0.4382,0.4146,0.4621,0.0951,0.0909,0.0995,1.807
42+sections_with_item_code,year=2010,ma_integration,Item 5.02 (control),17608,2939,59,0.0201,0.0156,0.0258,1675,59,0.0352,0.0274,0.0452,0.0951,0.0909,0.0995,0.211
43+sections_with_item_code,year=2010,cost_reduction,Item 8.01 (control),17608,4272,63,0.0147,0.0115,0.0188,145,63,0.4345,0.3565,0.5158,0.0082,0.007,0.0097,1.793
44+sections_with_item_code,year=2010,ma_integration,Item 2.03 (control),17608,713,158,0.2216,0.1927,0.2535,1675,158,0.0943,0.0812,0.1093,0.0951,0.0909,0.0995,2.33
45+sections_with_item_code,year=2010,partnership,Item 8.01 (control),17608,4272,56,0.0131,0.0101,0.017,202,56,0.2772,0.2201,0.3427,0.0115,0.01,0.0132,1.139
46+sections_with_item_code,year=2011,ma_integration,Item 2.01,18496,298,276,0.9262,0.8908,0.9507,1837,276,0.1502,0.1346,0.1673,0.0993,0.0951,0.1037,9.327
47+sections_with_item_code,year=2011,ma_integration,Item 2.01 or 1.01,18496,2460,880,0.3577,0.339,0.3769,1837,880,0.479,0.4563,0.5019,0.0993,0.0951,0.1037,3.602
48+sections_with_item_code,year=2011,ma_integration,Item 1.01,18496,2279,710,0.3115,0.2929,0.3309,1837,710,0.3865,0.3645,0.409,0.0993,0.0951,0.1037,3.137
49+sections_with_item_code,year=2011,cost_reduction,Item 2.05,18496,71,44,0.6197,0.5034,0.7237,161,44,0.2733,0.2103,0.3468,0.0087,0.0075,0.0101,71.23
50+sections_with_item_code,year=2011,partnership,Item 1.01,18496,2279,97,0.0426,0.035,0.0516,213,97,0.4554,0.3899,0.5225,0.0115,0.0101,0.0132,3.704
51+sections_with_item_code,year=2011,capex-type,Item 1.01,18496,2279,265,0.1163,0.1038,0.1301,564,265,0.4699,0.429,0.5111,0.0305,0.0281,0.0331,3.813
52+sections_with_item_code,year=2011,ma_integration,Item 8.01 (control),18496,4523,895,0.1979,0.1865,0.2097,1837,895,0.4872,0.4644,0.5101,0.0993,0.0951,0.1037,1.993
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256+sections_with_item_code,weight_tercile=na,ma_integration,Item 2.01 or 1.01,0,0,0,,,,0,0,,,,,,,nan
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258+sections_with_item_code,weight_tercile=na,cost_reduction,Item 2.05,0,0,0,,,,0,0,,,,,,,nan
259+sections_with_item_code,weight_tercile=na,partnership,Item 1.01,0,0,0,,,,0,0,,,,,,,nan
260+sections_with_item_code,weight_tercile=na,capex-type,Item 1.01,0,0,0,,,,0,0,,,,,,,nan
261+sections_with_item_code,weight_tercile=na,ma_integration,Item 8.01 (control),0,0,0,,,,0,0,,,,,,,nan
262+sections_with_item_code,weight_tercile=na,ma_integration,Item 5.02 (control),0,0,0,,,,0,0,,,,,,,nan
263+sections_with_item_code,weight_tercile=na,cost_reduction,Item 8.01 (control),0,0,0,,,,0,0,,,,,,,nan
264+sections_with_item_code,weight_tercile=na,ma_integration,Item 2.03 (control),0,0,0,,,,0,0,,,,,,,nan
265+sections_with_item_code,weight_tercile=na,partnership,Item 8.01 (control),0,0,0,,,,0,0,,,,,,,nan
266+sections_with_item_code,run=backfilled_june,ma_integration,Item 2.01,103759,978,885,0.9049,0.8849,0.9217,9945,885,0.089,0.0836,0.0947,0.0958,0.0941,0.0977,9.446
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added results/benchmark_8k/items_in_ma_sections.csv +26 −0
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2+9.01,32089
3+8.01,18510
4+1.01,14894
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25+4.02,13
26+1.03,13
added results/benchmark_8k/manifest.json +32 −0
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3+ "script": "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/firc0001_review/scripts/a07_8k_item_benchmark.py",
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7+ "wall_seconds": 8.4,
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28+ "item_vs_type.csv": 286,
29+ "items_in_ma_sections.csv": 25
30+ },
31+ "notes": {}
32+}
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added results/benchmark_8k/summary.json +25 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
1+{
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3+ "sections_with_item_code": 399543,
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26
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