spb/qc-election

1{2  "election": "Québec 2022",3  "generated": "2026-08-27",4  "note": "Aucune correction maison appliquée en backtest (pas de données antérieures à 2018) — le backtest mesure le modèle de tendance + simulation seul.",5  "horizons": [6    {7      "horizon": 120,8      "as_of": "2022-06-05",9      "n_polls": 52,10      "national": {11        "mae_pp": 2.65,12        "rmse_pp": 3.21,13        "coverage_95": 1.0,14        "forecast": {15          "CAQ": 40.37,16          "PCQ": 14.6,17          "PLQ": 18.19,18          "PQ": 9.01,19          "QS": 13.9220        },21        "actual": {22          "CAQ": 40.98,23          "PCQ": 12.91,24          "PLQ": 14.37,25          "PQ": 14.61,26          "QS": 15.4327        }28      },29      "seats": {30        "mae": 3.1,31        "coverage_90": 1.0,32        "expected": {33          "CAQ": 83.1,34          "PCQ": 7.0,35          "PLQ": 21.2,36          "PQ": 3.6,37          "QS": 10.038        },39        "actual": {40          "CAQ": 90,41          "PLQ": 21,42          "QS": 11,43          "PQ": 3,44          "PCQ": 0,45          "AUT": 046        },47        "prob_majority_caq": 0.937648      },49      "districts": {50        "brier": 0.1473,51        "log_loss": 0.2867,52        "winner_accuracy": 0.9253      }54    },55    {56      "horizon": 90,57      "as_of": "2022-07-05",58      "n_polls": 56,59      "national": {60        "mae_pp": 2.89,61        "rmse_pp": 3.23,62        "coverage_95": 1.0,63        "forecast": {64          "CAQ": 39.52,65          "PCQ": 15.86,66          "PLQ": 17.65,67          "PQ": 9.25,68          "QS": 14.0269        },70        "actual": {71          "CAQ": 40.98,72          "PCQ": 12.91,73          "PLQ": 14.37,74          "PQ": 14.61,75          "QS": 15.4376        }77      },78      "seats": {79        "mae": 3.6,80        "coverage_90": 1.0,81        "expected": {82          "CAQ": 82.7,83          "PCQ": 8.3,84          "PLQ": 20.2,85          "PQ": 3.6,86          "QS": 10.187        },88        "actual": {89          "CAQ": 90,90          "PLQ": 21,91          "QS": 11,92          "PQ": 3,93          "PCQ": 0,94          "AUT": 095        },96        "prob_majority_caq": 0.95197      },98      "districts": {99        "brier": 0.1547,100        "log_loss": 0.2924,101        "winner_accuracy": 0.912102      }103    },104    {105      "horizon": 60,106      "as_of": "2022-08-04",107      "n_polls": 57,108      "national": {109        "mae_pp": 2.23,110        "rmse_pp": 2.83,111        "coverage_95": 1.0,112        "forecast": {113          "CAQ": 40.71,114          "PCQ": 14.29,115          "PLQ": 17.58,116          "PQ": 9.47,117          "QS": 14.3118        },119        "actual": {120          "CAQ": 40.98,121          "PCQ": 12.91,122          "PLQ": 14.37,123          "PQ": 14.61,124          "QS": 15.43125        }126      },127      "seats": {128        "mae": 2.2,129        "coverage_90": 1.0,130        "expected": {131          "CAQ": 86.4,132          "PCQ": 5.1,133          "PLQ": 20.3,134          "PQ": 3.3,135          "QS": 9.9136        },137        "actual": {138          "CAQ": 90,139          "PLQ": 21,140          "QS": 11,141          "PQ": 3,142          "PCQ": 0,143          "AUT": 0144        },145        "prob_majority_caq": 0.9968146      },147      "districts": {148        "brier": 0.1331,149        "log_loss": 0.2458,150        "winner_accuracy": 0.912151      }152    },153    {154      "horizon": 30,155      "as_of": "2022-09-03",156      "n_polls": 65,157      "national": {158        "mae_pp": 4.15,159        "rmse_pp": 4.46,160        "coverage_95": 0.8,161        "forecast": {162          "CAQ": 38.56,163          "PCQ": 18.48,164          "PLQ": 18.1,165          "PQ": 8.1,166          "QS": 12.92167        },168        "actual": {169          "CAQ": 40.98,170          "PCQ": 12.91,171          "PLQ": 14.37,172          "PQ": 14.61,173          "QS": 15.43174        }175      },176      "seats": {177        "mae": 4.0,178        "coverage_90": 0.8,179        "expected": {180          "CAQ": 82.6,181          "PCQ": 10.1,182          "PLQ": 21.0,183          "PQ": 2.2,184          "QS": 9.1185        },186        "actual": {187          "CAQ": 90,188          "PLQ": 21,189          "QS": 11,190          "PQ": 3,191          "PCQ": 0,192          "AUT": 0193        },194        "prob_majority_caq": 0.9961195      },196      "districts": {197        "brier": 0.1794,198        "log_loss": 0.3284,199        "winner_accuracy": 0.888200      }201    },202    {203      "horizon": 14,204      "as_of": "2022-09-19",205      "n_polls": 83,206      "national": {207        "mae_pp": 3.61,208        "rmse_pp": 3.9,209        "coverage_95": 0.6,210        "forecast": {211          "CAQ": 39.24,212          "PCQ": 18.31,213          "PLQ": 16.95,214          "PQ": 9.36,215          "QS": 12.34216        },217        "actual": {218          "CAQ": 40.98,219          "PCQ": 12.91,220          "PLQ": 14.37,221          "PQ": 14.61,222          "QS": 15.43223        }224      },225      "seats": {226        "mae": 3.9,227        "coverage_90": 0.8,228        "expected": {229          "CAQ": 84.8,230          "PCQ": 9.7,231          "PLQ": 18.7,232          "PQ": 3.1,233          "QS": 8.6234        },235        "actual": {236          "CAQ": 90,237          "PLQ": 21,238          "QS": 11,239          "PQ": 3,240          "PCQ": 0,241          "AUT": 0242        },243        "prob_majority_caq": 1.0244      },245      "districts": {246        "brier": 0.1805,247        "log_loss": 0.3256,248        "winner_accuracy": 0.88249      }250    },251    {252      "horizon": 7,253      "as_of": "2022-09-26",254      "n_polls": 95,255      "national": {256        "mae_pp": 2.76,257        "rmse_pp": 3.03,258        "coverage_95": 0.6,259        "forecast": {260          "CAQ": 38.8,261          "PCQ": 17.52,262          "PLQ": 15.78,263          "PQ": 10.75,264          "QS": 13.67265        },266        "actual": {267          "CAQ": 40.98,268          "PCQ": 12.91,269          "PLQ": 14.37,270          "PQ": 14.61,271          "QS": 15.43272        }273      },274      "seats": {275        "mae": 4.2,276        "coverage_90": 0.8,277        "expected": {278          "CAQ": 85.0,279          "PCQ": 9.2,280          "PLQ": 16.7,281          "PQ": 4.4,282          "QS": 9.8283        },284        "actual": {285          "CAQ": 90,286          "PLQ": 21,287          "QS": 11,288          "PQ": 3,289          "PCQ": 0,290          "AUT": 0291        },292        "prob_majority_caq": 1.0293      },294      "districts": {295        "brier": 0.1768,296        "log_loss": 0.3194,297        "winner_accuracy": 0.864298      }299    },300    {301      "horizon": 1,302      "as_of": "2022-10-02",303      "n_polls": 104,304      "national": {305        "mae_pp": 2.19,306        "rmse_pp": 2.31,307        "coverage_95": 1.0,308        "forecast": {309          "CAQ": 39.02,310          "PCQ": 16.37,311          "PLQ": 15.6,312          "PQ": 12.63,313          "QS": 13.12314        },315        "actual": {316          "CAQ": 40.98,317          "PCQ": 12.91,318          "PLQ": 14.37,319          "PQ": 14.61,320          "QS": 15.43321        }322      },323      "seats": {324        "mae": 4.2,325        "coverage_90": 0.8,326        "expected": {327          "CAQ": 85.5,328          "PCQ": 7.3,329          "PLQ": 16.7,330          "PQ": 6.3,331          "QS": 9.2332        },333        "actual": {334          "CAQ": 90,335          "PLQ": 21,336          "QS": 11,337          "PQ": 3,338          "PCQ": 0,339          "AUT": 0340        },341        "prob_majority_caq": 1.0342      },343      "districts": {344        "brier": 0.1793,345        "log_loss": 0.3217,346        "winner_accuracy": 0.864347      }348    }349  ],350  "calibration": [351    {352      "bin": "0–10 %",353      "predicted": 0.005,354      "observed": 0.004,355      "n": 3973356    },357    {358  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