v3.1.0 — replay historique multi-élections + modèle d'erreur des sondeurs (σ appris)
Méthodologie ultra avancée, première vague (§100 : replay + scoring + erreur dynamique des sondeurs) : - ingest/wikipedia_historical.py : 462 sondages archivés sur 6 élections (2007: 34, 2008: 36, 2012: 121, 2014: 60, 2018: 106, 2022: 105), ères de partis (ADQ 2007-2008), cache data/historical/*.csv avec provenance - Cœur alr PARAMÉTRÉ par liste de partis (trend/forecast/house_effects/ fundamentals) — zéro changement de comportement 2026, replay multi-ères - validation/historical_replay.py : LOEO STRICT (house effects, fondamentaux exclude_year, σ sur les autres élections), rolling origin J-120→J-1, CRPS + log score + couverture 50/90/95 + sharpness (scoring.py) - national/pollster_error.py : erreur d'INDUSTRIE par élection (2018 CAQ −5,4, 2007 PLQ −9,2, 2014 PQ +4,9…), σ_industrie estimé LOEO ≈0,21 (composantes principales ≥5 %, borné [0,08; 0,25]), house effects hiérarchiques n/(n+k)+τ - ADOPTION σ appris (use_empirical_industry_error=True) validée par replay : log score −3,80 vs −5,33, CRPS 2,64 vs 2,67, couverture 95 % 83 % vs 76,5 %, EAM inchangée (3,71 vs 3,69) — fuite du backtest fondamentaux corrigée - API /api/replay, /api/pollster-error (+ v3), POST /api/admin/replay - Audits §100 : METHODOLOGY_AUDIT, STATISTICAL_DEBT (dette paramétrique complète), V3_MODEL_ARCHITECTURE, HISTORICAL_REPLAY_PLAN - 33/33 tests (CRPS/log score, bornes σ, replay 2018 smoke, ère ADQ 5 partis) Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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HISTORICAL_REPLAY_PLAN.md
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| 1 | +<!-- QC Élection Forecast — Plateforme de prévision électorale du Québec 2026 --> | ||||
| 2 | +<!-- Auteur : Simon-Pierre Boucher --> | ||||
| 3 | +<!-- Contact : contact@spboucher.ai --> | ||||
| 4 | +<!-- https://www.qc-election.com --> | ||||
| 5 | + | ||||
| 6 | +# HISTORICAL REPLAY PLAN — replay multi-élections (§52-54) | ||||
| 7 | + | ||||
| 8 | +## Base disponible (Wikipédia EN, vérifiée le 2026-08-30) | ||||
| 9 | +| Élection | Sondages | Source | Partis modélisés | Niveau | | ||||
| 10 | +|---|---|---|---|---| | ||||
| 11 | +| 2022-10-03 | 161 (déjà en base) | page dédiée | CAQ PLQ PQ QS PCQ AUT | national + 125 circ. | | ||||
| 12 | +| 2018-10-01 | ~121 | page dédiée « Opinion polling for… » | CAQ PLQ PQ QS AUT | national | | ||||
| 13 | +| 2014-04-07 | ~22 | page principale | CAQ PLQ PQ QS AUT | national | | ||||
| 14 | +| 2012-09-04 | ~55 | page principale | CAQ PLQ PQ QS AUT | national | | ||||
| 15 | +| 2008-12-08 | ~13 | page principale | ADQ PLQ PQ QS AUT | national | | ||||
| 16 | +| 2007-03-26 | ~34 | page principale | ADQ PLQ PQ QS AUT | national | | ||||
| 17 | +| 2003-04-14 | aucun archivé | — | — | fondamentaux seulement | | ||||
| 18 | +| 1998-11-30 | aucun archivé | — | — | fondamentaux seulement | | ||||
| 19 | + | ||||
| 20 | +## Protocole (aucune fuite, §1.4/§53) | ||||
| 21 | +- **LOEO strict** : pour tester l'élection E — house effects appris sur les | ||||
| 22 | + élections ≠ E; prior de fondamentaux ajusté avec `exclude_year=E`; | ||||
| 23 | + σ_industrie estimé sur les élections ≠ E; aucun paramètre recalibré sur E. | ||||
| 24 | +- **Rolling origin** : J-120, J-90, J-60, J-45, J-30, J-21, J-14, J-7, J-3, J-1 | ||||
| 25 | + (seulement l'information ≤ date). | ||||
| 26 | +- Partis par ère (compositions dynamiques) : le cœur alr est paramétré par la | ||||
| 27 | + liste de partis de l'élection. | ||||
| 28 | +- Couches non disponibles historiquement (partielles pré-2022 structurées, | ||||
| 29 | + médias, social) : absentes du replay, documenté. | ||||
| 30 | + | ||||
| 31 | +## Scores (règles propres, §55) | ||||
| 32 | +EAM/RMSE du vote; couverture 50/90/95; **CRPS** (échantillons du posterior); | ||||
| 33 | +**log score** (densité prédictive alr de la composition réelle); sharpness; | ||||
| 34 | +biais signé par parti. Niveau circonscription (Brier, exactitude) pour 2022. | ||||
| 35 | + | ||||
| 36 | +## Livrables | ||||
| 37 | +`data/historical/polls_{année}.csv` (cache, provenance URL), `data/replay_report.json`, | ||||
| 38 | +API `/api/replay`, `POST /api/admin/replay`. Utilisé par : σ_industrie empirique, | ||||
| 39 | +effets de mode, futur tournoi de modèles/stacking (Phase F). | ||||
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METHODOLOGY.md
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@@ -245,6 +245,30 @@ données futures dans les replays. | |||||
| 245 | - **API v3** : `/api/v3/forecast|ridings|social|battlegrounds|events|beyond| | 245 | - **API v3** : `/api/v3/forecast|ridings|social|battlegrounds|events|beyond| | ||
| 246 | calibration|ablation` (la v1 `/api/*` reste inchangée). | 246 | calibration|ablation` (la v1 `/api/*` reste inchangée). | ||
| 247 | 247 | ||||
| 248 | +## 9 ter. v3.1 — Replay historique multi-élections et erreur des sondeurs | ||||
| 249 | + | ||||
| 250 | +- **Replay 2007-2022** (§52-54 du cahier méthodologique) : six élections | ||||
| 251 | + rejouées (462 sondages Wikipédia archivés, `data/historical/`), horizons | ||||
| 252 | + J-120→J-1, **LOEO strict** — house effects, prior de fondamentaux | ||||
| 253 | + (`exclude_year`) et σ_industrie appris uniquement sur les AUTRES élections. | ||||
| 254 | + Scores propres : EAM/RMSE, couverture 50/90/95, **CRPS**, **log score**, | ||||
| 255 | + sharpness (`/api/replay`). Le cœur alr est paramétré par l'ère de partis | ||||
| 256 | + (ADQ 2007-2008, CAQ depuis 2012, PCQ en 2022). | ||||
| 257 | +- **Modèle d'erreur des sondeurs** (`/api/pollster-error`) : l'erreur | ||||
| 258 | + d'INDUSTRIE (biais partagé des sondages finaux) est mesurée à chaque | ||||
| 259 | + élection — p. ex. 2018 : CAQ −5,4 pp, PLQ +3,6; 2014 : PQ +4,9; 2007 : | ||||
| 260 | + PLQ −9,2. σ_industrie devient une quantité **apprise** (RMS des composantes | ||||
| 261 | + principales, LOEO, bornée [0,08; 0,25]) ≈ **0,21** au lieu du 0,12 manuel. | ||||
| 262 | + Adoption validée par le replay : log score −3,80 vs −5,33, CRPS 2,64 vs | ||||
| 263 | + 2,67, couverture 95 % 83 % vs 76,5 %, EAM inchangée — les intervalles | ||||
| 264 | + publiés sont plus larges parce que l'histoire le commande. House effects | ||||
| 265 | + hiérarchiques : moyenne inter-élections rétrécie n/(n+k) + dispersion τ | ||||
| 266 | + (une maison vue une fois reste incertaine, pas simplement pénalisée). | ||||
| 267 | +- Leçon des queues (2007 : surge ADQ, EAM 6,6; 2014 : effondrement PQ, 5,2) : | ||||
| 268 | + les grands mouvements de campagne sont la première source d'erreur — | ||||
| 269 | + chantier suivant : innovations à queues lourdes (Student-t) testées par le | ||||
| 270 | + même replay. | ||||
| 271 | + | ||||
| 248 | ## 10. Limites connues | 272 | ## 10. Limites connues | ||
| 249 | 273 | ||||
| 250 | 1. Pas de sondages régionaux publics structurés — la variation régionale vient de la | 274 | 1. Pas de sondages régionaux publics structurés — la variation régionale vient de la | ||
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METHODOLOGY_AUDIT.md
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| 1 | +<!-- QC Élection Forecast — Plateforme de prévision électorale du Québec 2026 --> | ||||
| 2 | +<!-- Auteur : Simon-Pierre Boucher --> | ||||
| 3 | +<!-- Contact : contact@spboucher.ai --> | ||||
| 4 | +<!-- https://www.qc-election.com --> | ||||
| 5 | + | ||||
| 6 | +# METHODOLOGY AUDIT — reconstruction exacte du modèle actuel (§100.3) | ||||
| 7 | + | ||||
| 8 | +Baseline figé : commit `e632529`, modèle 3.0.0, 29 tests verts, forecast et | ||||
| 9 | +backtest reproduits localement le 2026-08-30 (graines fixes). | ||||
| 10 | + | ||||
| 11 | +## Chaîne actuelle (observé → publié) | ||||
| 12 | +1. **Observation** : sondage Wikipédia (sections nationales) → renormalisation | ||||
| 13 | + → correction house effect (biais final 21 j, shrink 0,5, borné ±3 pp) → | ||||
| 14 | + alr → covariance multinomiale (n_eff = n/deff par mode, plafond 2500) | ||||
| 15 | + + erreur excédentaire diag (±1,5 pp; ×1,25 maison inconnue). Partielles : | ||||
| 16 | + pseudo-observations nationales (swing local ×0,6, n≈350, ±3 pp). | ||||
| 17 | +2. **État latent** : marche aléatoire alr 5D, q estimé par MV (grille 12 pts, | ||||
| 18 | + borné), Kalman exact + RTS. | ||||
| 19 | +3. **Forecast** : moyenne martingale; variance += q·jours·1,6·m_volatilité | ||||
| 20 | + (m ∈ [1;1,5], attention wiki+social) + 0,12² systémique. | ||||
| 21 | +4. **Fondamentaux** : ridge (vote sortant ~ vote préc. + satisfaction) sur 8 | ||||
| 22 | + élections, pénalité 1,5 pp/mandat; blend précision w(t)=min(0,8,(j/540)^1,3). | ||||
| 23 | +5. **Médias** : nudge borné ±0,35 pp (tanh sentiment 14 j, seuil volume). | ||||
| 24 | +6. **Circonscriptions** : alr(base 2022 locale) + swing national alr + ε_région | ||||
| 25 | + (0,14) + ε_circ (0,20) − retrait sortant (0,06); softmax. | ||||
| 26 | +7. **Simulation** : 25 000 tirages corrélés (état→national→régional→local); | ||||
| 27 | + sièges, P(1er), P(maj), pivots (8k). | ||||
| 28 | +8. **Publication** : P(1er) = 0,88·modèle + 0,12·Polymarket. | ||||
| 29 | + | ||||
| 30 | +## Écarts vs la cible « ultra avancée » (§ du cahier des charges) | ||||
| 31 | +| § | Cible | État actuel | Écart | | ||||
| 32 | +|---|---|---|---| | ||||
| 33 | +| 2 | état latent joint (démo × région) | national seulement + couches d'erreur | majeur (Phases C/D) | | ||||
| 34 | +| 3-4 | RW challengé (LLT, mean-rev, Student-t) | RW gaussien | à tester par replay | | ||||
| 35 | +| 6-10 | modèle de mesure complet (mode/population/LV/cov inter-partis) | house+mode deff+excès | partiel → `national/pollster_error.py` | | ||||
| 36 | +| 11 | terrain = moyenne sur la période | assigné à la fin de terrain | mineur, plan replay | | ||||
| 37 | +| 14-16 | MRP dynamique | absent (plan POPULATION_FEATURES) | majeur (Phase D) | | ||||
| 38 | +| 17-19 | participation probabiliste | scénario manuel (simulateur) | majeur (Phase E) | | ||||
| 39 | +| 20-24 | hiérarchie/facteurs spatiaux appris | régions administratives + ε indépendants | majeur (Phase C) | | ||||
| 40 | +| 27-29 | effets candidats estimés | pénalité retrait fixe | Phase E | | ||||
| 41 | +| 30 | modèle de partielle décomposé | shrink fixe 0,6 | amélioration ciblée | | ||||
| 42 | +| 31-33 | fondamentaux bayésiens LOEO | ridge LOO, fuite en replay (corrigée) | ✔ corrigé | | ||||
| 43 | +| 34-36 | marchés = observation d'événement, poids appris | blend fixe 12 % | dette assumée (pas d'historique) | | ||||
| 44 | +| 37-45 | social = attention/volatilité | ✔ conforme (bornée, jamais directionnelle) | ✔ | | ||||
| 45 | +| 46-48 | distribution prédictive du prochain sondage | absent | backlog court terme | | ||||
| 46 | +| 49-51 | stacking / champion-challenger | ablation implémentée; stacking à venir | Phase F | | ||||
| 47 | +| 52-58 | replay multi-élections + scoring propre | 2022 seulement → **implémenté : 2007-2022 (6 élections), CRPS/log score** | ✔ ce commit | | ||||
| 48 | +| 59-61 | hyperparamètres estimés | voir STATISTICAL_DEBT.md | en cours (σ_industrie empirique) | | ||||
| 49 | +| 62-66 | simulation copules/queues | gaussien corrélé | à tester | | ||||
| 50 | +| 89-93 | modèle du soir d'élection | absent | Phase G (avant le 5 oct.) | | ||||
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STATISTICAL_DEBT.md
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| 1 | +<!-- QC Élection Forecast — Plateforme de prévision électorale du Québec 2026 --> | ||||
| 2 | +<!-- Auteur : Simon-Pierre Boucher --> | ||||
| 3 | +<!-- Contact : contact@spboucher.ai --> | ||||
| 4 | +<!-- https://www.qc-election.com --> | ||||
| 5 | + | ||||
| 6 | +# STATISTICAL DEBT — inventaire honnête des paramètres manuels (§100.8-9) | ||||
| 7 | + | ||||
| 8 | +Chaque paramètre « choisi à la main » est une dette : il doit devenir estimé | ||||
| 9 | +(inférence hiérarchique, validation croisée) ou documenté comme prior | ||||
| 10 | +conservateur assumé. État au 2026-08-30 (v3.0.x). | ||||
| 11 | + | ||||
| 12 | +## Paramètres manuels du cœur (config.py) | ||||
| 13 | + | ||||
| 14 | +| Paramètre | Valeur | Origine | Dette | Plan | | ||||
| 15 | +|---|---|---|---|---| | ||||
| 16 | +| `time_decay_halflife_days` | 12 j | convention (538-like) | moyenne | replay multi-élections → profil de vraisemblance | | ||||
| 17 | +| `max_effective_n` | 2500 | anti-domination, heuristique | faible | test de sensibilité | | ||||
| 18 | +| `design_effects` (web 1,30…) | littérature | littérature générale, pas QC | moyenne | `pollster_error.mode_effects` sur 6 élections | | ||||
| 19 | +| `excess_poll_sd_pp` | 1,5 pp | littérature TSE | moyenne | résidus multi-élections | | ||||
| 20 | +| `rw_daily_sd` bornes | [0,004; 0,030] | garde-fous | faible | q déjà estimé par MV dans les bornes | | ||||
| 21 | +| `campaign_drift_inflation` | 1,6 | « cycles passés », non formalisé | **élevée** | replay : estimer l'inflation campagne vs hors-campagne | | ||||
| 22 | +| `house_effect_shrinkage` | 0,5 | heuristique | moyenne | hiérarchique (global + déviation élection, τ estimé) | | ||||
| 23 | +| `house_effect_max_pp` | ±3 pp | garde-fou | faible | conserver comme borne | | ||||
| 24 | +| `industry_error_sd` | 0,12 (alr) | calibré sur 2018+2022 SEULEMENT | **élevée** (§60 : no single-election calibration) | `pollster_error.industry_sigma` empirique sur 6 élections (implémenté) | | ||||
| 25 | +| `regional_error_sd` | 0,14 | résidus backtest 2022, atténués à la main | **élevée** | résidus multi-élections (2018→2022 + 2014→2018…) quand les résultats par circ. seront ingérés | | ||||
| 26 | +| `riding_error_sd` | 0,20 | idem | **élevée** | idem | | ||||
| 27 | +| `incumbent_retirement_penalty` | 0,06 alr | littérature | moyenne | §29 : apprendre P(perte du vote personnel) par contexte | | ||||
| 28 | +| `byelection_swing_shrink` | 0,6 | littérature partielles | moyenne | §30 : modèle de partielle avec effet participation/candidat | | ||||
| 29 | +| `byelection_equivalent_n` / excess | 350 / ±3 pp | jugement | moyenne | idem | | ||||
| 30 | +| `media_nudge_pp_max` | ±0,35 pp | borne prudente, NON backtestée | assumée (borne stricte, décomposée) | validation post-2026 (§96) | | ||||
| 31 | +| `market_blend_weight` | 12 % | prudence, NON appris | **élevée** (§36 : no fixed 88/12) | stacking appris quand historique de marchés QC existera (aucun marché 2022) | | ||||
| 32 | +| `fundamentals_horizon_days`/`max_weight`/exp 1,3 | 540/0,8/1,3 | forme 538-like | **élevée** (§33) | replay : apprendre la décroissance | | ||||
| 33 | +| `fundamentals_term_penalty_pp` | 1,5 pp/mandat | littérature | moyenne | LOEO (8 obs. — restera un prior) | | ||||
| 34 | +| `RIDGE_LAMBDA` (fondamentaux) | 4,0 | jugement | moyenne | LOEO sur grille | | ||||
| 35 | +| volatilité A/B/C (0,10/0,06/0,05) et cap 1,5 | jugement borné | **assumée** (variance seulement, bornée, décomposée) | validation post-2026 | | ||||
| 36 | +| catégories Solide/Probable/Favorisé (95/80/60) | convention | faible | présentation seulement | | ||||
| 37 | + | ||||
| 38 | +## Couches non backtestées (état) | ||||
| 39 | +- **Partielles, nudge médias, volatilité sociale/wiki** : non rejouables avant | ||||
| 40 | + 2022 (données absentes) — bornées par construction, Δ=0 documenté dans | ||||
| 41 | + l'ablation, évaluation après le 5 octobre 2026 (§96). | ||||
| 42 | +- **Ensemble marchés** : aucun marché 2022 → poids prudent 12 % assumé. | ||||
| 43 | +- **Sondage synthétique LLM** : poids nul, objet d'étude (§97). | ||||
| 44 | + | ||||
| 45 | +## Fuites potentielles identifiées (et leur état) | ||||
| 46 | +1. ~~`compute_pollster_profiles` en backtest~~ — le backtest 2022 passe `{}` | ||||
| 47 | + (aucune correction maison) : pas de fuite, mais sous-utilise l'info → | ||||
| 48 | + remplacé par LOEO dans le replay (profils appris sur les AUTRES élections). | ||||
| 49 | +2. **Fondamentaux en replay** : `_ridge_fit()` s'ajuste sur les 8 élections, | ||||
| 50 | + INCLUANT celle testée → fuite dans le backtest 2022 actuel (faible mais | ||||
| 51 | + réelle). Corrigé : `compute_prior(exclude_year=…)` (LOEO strict). | ||||
| 52 | +3. `industry_error_sd=0,12` calibré sur 2018/2022 puis testé sur 2022 → | ||||
| 53 | + circulaire. Corrigé par l'estimation multi-élections LOEO. | ||||
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V3_MODEL_ARCHITECTURE.md
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| 1 | +<!-- QC Élection Forecast — Plateforme de prévision électorale du Québec 2026 --> | ||||
| 2 | +<!-- Auteur : Simon-Pierre Boucher --> | ||||
| 3 | +<!-- Contact : contact@spboucher.ai --> | ||||
| 4 | +<!-- https://www.qc-election.com --> | ||||
| 5 | + | ||||
| 6 | +# V3 MODEL ARCHITECTURE — cible et chemin de migration | ||||
| 7 | + | ||||
| 8 | +Cible : P(issue | sondages, population, historique, candidats, participation, | ||||
| 9 | +fondamentaux, signaux) — composantes interdépendantes d'un même système. | ||||
| 10 | + | ||||
| 11 | +``` | ||||
| 12 | +backend/app/modeling/ | ||||
| 13 | +├── national/ pollster_error.py ✅ · latent_vote (=trend.py, à migrer) | ||||
| 14 | +├── validation/ scoring.py ✅ · ablation.py ✅ · historical_replay.py ✅ | ||||
| 15 | +├── signals/ social.py ✅ · volatility.py ✅ · event_detection.py ✅ | ||||
| 16 | +├── electorate/ (Phase D : mrp, poststratification, turnout) | ||||
| 17 | +├── geography/ (Phase C : facteurs latents, covariance spatiale) | ||||
| 18 | +├── candidates/ (Phase E) | ||||
| 19 | +├── ensemble/ (Phase F : stacking, model uncertainty) | ||||
| 20 | +└── simulation/ (scenarios/clustering à extraire de simulate.py) | ||||
| 21 | +``` | ||||
| 22 | + | ||||
| 23 | +Ordre (§99/§100) : 1 replay multi-élections ✅ → 2 scoring propre (CRPS/log) ✅ | ||||
| 24 | +→ 3 modèle dynamique d'erreur des sondeurs ✅ (v1 : σ_industrie empirique LOEO, | ||||
| 25 | +effets de mode, house hiérarchique) → 4 hiérarchie des 127 → 5 MRP → 6 turnout | ||||
| 26 | +→ 7 stacking → 8 queues lourdes (Student-t à tester par replay) → 9 distribution | ||||
| 27 | +prédictive du prochain sondage → 10 modèle du soir d'élection. | ||||
| 28 | + | ||||
| 29 | +Règles : shadow/champion-challenger avant production; version bump à tout | ||||
| 30 | +changement de distribution; no silent model change (backtest+ablation+changelog). | ||||
modified
backend/app/api/admin.py
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@@ -191,6 +191,18 @@ def _ablation_job(): | |||||
| 191 | db.close() | 191 | db.close() | ||
| 192 | 192 | ||||
| 193 | 193 | ||||
| 194 | +def _replay_job(): | ||||
| 195 | + from ..modeling.validation.historical_replay import run_replay | ||||
| 196 | + run_replay() | ||||
| 197 | + | ||||
| 198 | + | ||||
| 199 | +@router.post("/replay", dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)]) | ||||
| 200 | +def run_replay_bg(background: BackgroundTasks): | ||||
| 201 | + """Replay multi-élections 2007-2022 (LOEO), en arrière-plan.""" | ||||
| 202 | + background.add_task(_replay_job) | ||||
| 203 | + return {"status": "replay historique lancé en arrière-plan"} | ||||
| 204 | + | ||||
| 205 | + | ||||
| 194 | @router.post("/ablation", dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)]) | 206 | @router.post("/ablation", dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)]) | ||
| 195 | def run_ablation_bg(background: BackgroundTasks): | 207 | def run_ablation_bg(background: BackgroundTasks): | ||
| 196 | """Ablation v3 (§22) : backtest 2022 par variante de couches, en arrière-plan.""" | 208 | """Ablation v3 (§22) : backtest 2022 par variante de couches, en arrière-plan.""" | ||
modified
backend/app/api/public.py
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@@ -257,6 +257,23 @@ def ablation_report(): | |||||
| 257 | return json.loads(f.read_text()) | 257 | return json.loads(f.read_text()) | ||
| 258 | 258 | ||||
| 259 | 259 | ||||
| 260 | +@router.get("/replay") | ||||
| 261 | +def replay_report(): | ||||
| 262 | + """Replay historique multi-élections (2007-2022, LOEO strict, §52-54).""" | ||||
| 263 | + f = DATA_DIR / "replay_report.json" | ||||
| 264 | + if not f.exists(): | ||||
| 265 | + raise HTTPException(404, "Replay non exécuté — POST /api/admin/replay") | ||||
| 266 | + return json.loads(f.read_text()) | ||||
| 267 | + | ||||
| 268 | + | ||||
| 269 | +@router.get("/pollster-error") | ||||
| 270 | +def pollster_error_report(): | ||||
| 271 | + """Modèle d'erreur des sondeurs (§6-10) : erreurs d'industrie par élection, | ||||
| 272 | + σ_industrie estimé LOEO, house effects hiérarchiques.""" | ||||
| 273 | + from ..modeling.national.pollster_error import report | ||||
| 274 | + return report() | ||||
| 275 | + | ||||
| 276 | + | ||||
| 260 | @router.get("/attention") | 277 | @router.get("/attention") | ||
| 261 | def attention(db: Session = Depends(get_db)): | 278 | def attention(db: Session = Depends(get_db)): | ||
| 262 | """Attention Wikipédia : parts, tendances, turbulence (signal non directionnel).""" | 279 | """Attention Wikipédia : parts, tendances, turbulence (signal non directionnel).""" | ||
@@ -559,3 +576,5 @@ router_v3.get("/events")(events) | |||||
| 559 | router_v3.get("/beyond")(beyond) | 576 | router_v3.get("/beyond")(beyond) | ||
| 560 | router_v3.get("/calibration")(backtest_report) | 577 | router_v3.get("/calibration")(backtest_report) | ||
| 561 | router_v3.get("/ablation")(ablation_report) | 578 | router_v3.get("/ablation")(ablation_report) | ||
| 579 | +router_v3.get("/replay")(replay_report) | ||||
| 580 | +router_v3.get("/pollster-error")(pollster_error_report) | ||||
modified
backend/app/config.py
+5 −1
@@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ _load_env_file(BASE_DIR / ".env") | |||||
| 36 | class Settings(BaseSettings): | 36 | class Settings(BaseSettings): | ||
| 37 | # --- Général --- | 37 | # --- Général --- | ||
| 38 | app_name: str = "QC Élection Forecast" | 38 | app_name: str = "QC Élection Forecast" | ||
| 39 | − model_version: str = "3.0.0" | 39 | + model_version: str = "3.1.0" | ||
| 40 | database_url: str = f"sqlite:///{BASE_DIR / 'qc_election.db'}" | 40 | database_url: str = f"sqlite:///{BASE_DIR / 'qc_election.db'}" | ||
| 41 | admin_token: str = os.environ.get("ADMIN_TOKEN", "change-me") | 41 | admin_token: str = os.environ.get("ADMIN_TOKEN", "change-me") | ||
| 42 | port: int = 8140 | 42 | port: int = 8140 | ||
@@ -133,6 +133,10 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings): | |||||
| 133 | tipping_n_sims: int = 8000 # sous-échantillon pour le calcul pivot | 133 | tipping_n_sims: int = 8000 # sous-échantillon pour le calcul pivot | ||
| 134 | enable_ablation: bool = True # cadre d'ablation (validation §22) | 134 | enable_ablation: bool = True # cadre d'ablation (validation §22) | ||
| 135 | enable_social_directional: bool = False # EXPÉRIMENTAL — jamais activé par défaut | 135 | enable_social_directional: bool = False # EXPÉRIMENTAL — jamais activé par défaut | ||
| 136 | + # σ_industrie APPRIS (LOEO, 6 élections 2007-2022) au lieu du 0,12 manuel. | ||||
| 137 | + # Validé par replay : log score −3,80 vs −5,33, CRPS 2,64 vs 2,67, | ||||
| 138 | + # couverture 95 % 83 % vs 76,5 %, EAM inchangée (rapport replay_report.json). | ||||
| 139 | + use_empirical_industry_error: bool = True | ||||
| 136 | 140 | ||||
| 137 | # --- Sentiment (signal affiché; n'agit que via l'ajustement médias borné) --- | 141 | # --- Sentiment (signal affiché; n'agit que via l'ajustement médias borné) --- | ||
| 138 | sentiment_feeds: list[str] = [ | 142 | sentiment_feeds: list[str] = [ | ||
added
backend/app/ingest/wikipedia_historical.py
+184 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,184 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +# QC Élection Forecast — Plateforme de prévision électorale du Québec 2026 | ||||
| 2 | +# Auteur : Simon-Pierre Boucher | ||||
| 3 | +# Contact : contact@spboucher.ai | ||||
| 4 | +# https://www.qc-election.com | ||||
| 5 | +"""Sondages historiques 1998-2018 (Wikipédia EN) — carburant du replay | ||||
| 6 | +multi-élections (§52). Chaque élection a son ère de partis (ADQ 2007-2008, | ||||
| 7 | +CAQ depuis 2012, PCQ significatif seulement en 2022) : le cœur alr étant | ||||
| 8 | +paramétré par la liste de partis, le même moteur rejoue chaque ère. | ||||
| 9 | + | ||||
| 10 | +Les sondages parsés sont mis en cache (`data/historical/polls_{année}.csv`, | ||||
| 11 | +provenance URL + date d'accès) — le replay ne refait pas le réseau.""" | ||||
| 12 | +from __future__ import annotations | ||||
| 13 | + | ||||
| 14 | +import logging | ||||
| 15 | +import re | ||||
| 16 | +from datetime import date, datetime, timezone | ||||
| 17 | +from io import StringIO | ||||
| 18 | +from pathlib import Path | ||||
| 19 | + | ||||
| 20 | +import httpx | ||||
| 21 | +import pandas as pd | ||||
| 22 | + | ||||
| 23 | +from ..config import DATA_DIR | ||||
| 24 | +from .wikipedia import (_flat_cols, _num, _parse_date, norm_pollster, UA) | ||||
| 25 | + | ||||
| 26 | +log = logging.getLogger("wiki-historical") | ||||
| 27 | + | ||||
| 28 | +HIST_DIR = DATA_DIR / "historical" | ||||
| 29 | + | ||||
| 30 | +# Métadonnées des élections rejouables (résultats officiels DGEQ, % du vote). | ||||
| 31 | +ELECTIONS: dict[int, dict] = { | ||||
| 32 | + 2022: {"date": date(2022, 10, 3), | ||||
| 33 | + "parties": ["CAQ", "PLQ", "PQ", "QS", "PCQ", "AUT"], | ||||
| 34 | + "incumbent": "CAQ", "terms": 1, | ||||
| 35 | + "result": {"CAQ": 40.98, "PLQ": 14.37, "PQ": 14.61, "QS": 15.43, | ||||
| 36 | + "PCQ": 12.91, "AUT": 1.70}, | ||||
| 37 | + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Quebec_general_election"}, | ||||
| 38 | + 2018: {"date": date(2018, 10, 1), | ||||
| 39 | + "parties": ["CAQ", "PLQ", "PQ", "QS", "AUT"], | ||||
| 40 | + "incumbent": "PLQ", "terms": 1, | ||||
| 41 | + "result": {"CAQ": 37.42, "PLQ": 24.82, "PQ": 17.06, "QS": 16.10, "AUT": 4.60}, | ||||
| 42 | + "url": ("https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/" | ||||
| 43 | + "Opinion_polling_for_the_2018_Quebec_general_election")}, | ||||
| 44 | + 2014: {"date": date(2014, 4, 7), | ||||
| 45 | + "parties": ["CAQ", "PLQ", "PQ", "QS", "AUT"], | ||||
| 46 | + "incumbent": "PQ", "terms": 1, | ||||
| 47 | + "result": {"CAQ": 23.05, "PLQ": 41.52, "PQ": 25.38, "QS": 7.63, "AUT": 2.42}, | ||||
| 48 | + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Quebec_general_election"}, | ||||
| 49 | + 2012: {"date": date(2012, 9, 4), | ||||
| 50 | + "parties": ["CAQ", "PLQ", "PQ", "QS", "AUT"], | ||||
| 51 | + "incumbent": "PLQ", "terms": 3, | ||||
| 52 | + "result": {"CAQ": 27.05, "PLQ": 31.20, "PQ": 31.95, "QS": 6.03, "AUT": 3.77}, | ||||
| 53 | + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election"}, | ||||
| 54 | + 2008: {"date": date(2008, 12, 8), | ||||
| 55 | + "parties": ["ADQ", "PLQ", "PQ", "QS", "AUT"], | ||||
| 56 | + "incumbent": "PLQ", "terms": 2, | ||||
| 57 | + "result": {"ADQ": 16.37, "PLQ": 42.08, "PQ": 35.17, "QS": 3.78, "AUT": 2.60}, | ||||
| 58 | + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election"}, | ||||
| 59 | + 2007: {"date": date(2007, 3, 26), | ||||
| 60 | + "parties": ["ADQ", "PLQ", "PQ", "QS", "AUT"], | ||||
| 61 | + "incumbent": "PLQ", "terms": 1, | ||||
| 62 | + "result": {"ADQ": 30.84, "PLQ": 33.08, "PQ": 28.35, "QS": 3.64, "AUT": 4.09}, | ||||
| 63 | + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election"}, | ||||
| 64 | +} | ||||
| 65 | + | ||||
| 66 | +# Correspondance colonnes → partis, toutes ères confondues (minuscule, contient). | ||||
| 67 | +PARTY_PATTERNS = [ | ||||
| 68 | + ("CAQ", ("caq", "coalition")), | ||||
| 69 | + ("PLQ", ("plq", "qlp", "liberal", "libéral")), | ||||
| 70 | + ("PQ", ("parti québécois", "parti quebecois", "pq")), | ||||
| 71 | + ("QS", ("québec solidaire", "quebec solidaire", "qs")), | ||||
| 72 | + ("ADQ", ("adq", "action démocratique", "action democratique")), | ||||
| 73 | + ("PCQ", ("pcq", "conservative", "conservateur")), | ||||
| 74 | + ("AUT", ("other", "others", "autres")), | ||||
| 75 | +] | ||||
| 76 | + | ||||
| 77 | + | ||||
| 78 | +def _party_of(col: str) -> str | None: | ||||
| 79 | + c = col.lower().strip() | ||||
| 80 | + for party, pats in PARTY_PATTERNS: | ||||
| 81 | + for pat in pats: | ||||
| 82 | + if pat in c: | ||||
| 83 | + return party | ||||
| 84 | + return None | ||||
| 85 | + | ||||
| 86 | + | ||||
| 87 | +def parse_election_polls(html: str, year: int) -> list[dict]: | ||||
| 88 | + """Tables de sondages d'une page d'élection historique → dicts normalisés. | ||||
| 89 | + Tolère les deux mises en page : « Timeline of opinion polls » (multi-niveau) | ||||
| 90 | + et « Date(s)/Firm/Sample » (2008).""" | ||||
| 91 | + meta = ELECTIONS[year] | ||||
| 92 | + parties = meta["parties"] | ||||
| 93 | + out, seen = [], set() | ||||
| 94 | + for t in pd.read_html(StringIO(html)): | ||||
| 95 | + t = t.copy() | ||||
| 96 | + t.columns = _flat_cols(t) | ||||
| 97 | + cols = {str(c).lower().strip(): c for c in t.columns} | ||||
| 98 | + org_col = next((cols[k] for k in cols | ||||
| 99 | + if "polling" in k and "organi" in k or k == "firm" | ||||
| 100 | + or "polling firm" in k), None) | ||||
| 101 | + date_col = next((cols[k] for k in cols | ||||
| 102 | + if "last date" in k or k.startswith("date")), None) | ||||
| 103 | + party_cols = {} | ||||
| 104 | + for k, orig in cols.items(): | ||||
| 105 | + p = _party_of(k) | ||||
| 106 | + if p and p in parties and p not in party_cols: | ||||
| 107 | + party_cols[p] = orig | ||||
| 108 | + if org_col is None or date_col is None or len( | ||||
| 109 | + [p for p in party_cols if p != "AUT"]) < 3: | ||||
| 110 | + continue | ||||
| 111 | + n_col = next((cols[k] for k in cols if "sample" in k), None) | ||||
| 112 | + for _, r in t.iterrows(): | ||||
| 113 | + org = r.get(org_col) | ||||
| 114 | + if org is None or pd.isna(org): | ||||
| 115 | + continue | ||||
| 116 | + org = str(org) | ||||
| 117 | + if "election" in org.lower() or len(org) > 60: | ||||
| 118 | + continue | ||||
| 119 | + end = _parse_date(r.get(date_col), year) | ||||
| 120 | + if end is None or abs((end - meta["date"]).days) > 4 * 365: | ||||
| 121 | + continue | ||||
| 122 | + shares = {} | ||||
| 123 | + for p, c in party_cols.items(): | ||||
| 124 | + v = _num(r.get(c)) | ||||
| 125 | + if v is not None and 0 <= v <= 80: | ||||
| 126 | + shares[p] = v | ||||
| 127 | + if len([p for p in shares if p != "AUT"]) < 3: | ||||
| 128 | + continue | ||||
| 129 | + if "AUT" not in shares: | ||||
| 130 | + s = sum(shares.values()) | ||||
| 131 | + if 80 <= s <= 100: | ||||
| 132 | + shares["AUT"] = round(100 - s, 1) | ||||
| 133 | + n = _num(r.get(n_col)) if n_col is not None else None | ||||
| 134 | + key = (norm_pollster(org), end.isoformat()) | ||||
| 135 | + if key in seen: | ||||
| 136 | + continue | ||||
| 137 | + seen.add(key) | ||||
| 138 | + out.append({"pollster": norm_pollster(org), | ||||
| 139 | + "field_end": end.isoformat(), | ||||
| 140 | + "sample_size": int(n) if n and n > 40 else None, | ||||
| 141 | + "mode": "unknown", "shares": shares, | ||||
| 142 | + "source_url": meta["url"]}) | ||||
| 143 | + return out | ||||
| 144 | + | ||||
| 145 | + | ||||
| 146 | +def load_polls(year: int, refresh: bool = False) -> list[dict]: | ||||
| 147 | + """Sondages d'une élection historique (cache CSV, réseau si absent).""" | ||||
| 148 | + HIST_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) | ||||
| 149 | + f = HIST_DIR / f"polls_{year}.csv" | ||||
| 150 | + if f.exists() and not refresh: | ||||
| 151 | + df = pd.read_csv(f) | ||||
| 152 | + polls: dict[tuple, dict] = {} | ||||
| 153 | + for _, r in df.iterrows(): | ||||
| 154 | + key = (r["pollster"], r["field_end"]) | ||||
| 155 | + p = polls.setdefault(key, { | ||||
| 156 | + "pollster": r["pollster"], "field_end": r["field_end"], | ||||
| 157 | + "sample_size": None if pd.isna(r["sample_size"]) else int(r["sample_size"]), | ||||
| 158 | + "mode": r.get("mode", "unknown"), "shares": {}}) | ||||
| 159 | + p["shares"][r["party"]] = float(r["raw_value"]) | ||||
| 160 | + return list(polls.values()) | ||||
| 161 | + html = httpx.get(ELECTIONS[year]["url"], headers=UA, timeout=90, | ||||
| 162 | + follow_redirects=True).text | ||||
| 163 | + polls = parse_election_polls(html, year) | ||||
| 164 | + recs = [] | ||||
| 165 | + accessed = datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat() | ||||
| 166 | + for p in polls: | ||||
| 167 | + for party, v in p["shares"].items(): | ||||
| 168 | + recs.append({**{k: p[k] for k in p if k != "shares"}, | ||||
| 169 | + "party": party, "raw_value": v, "accessed_at": accessed}) | ||||
| 170 | + pd.DataFrame(recs).to_csv(f, index=False) | ||||
| 171 | + log.info("polls %s: %d sondages mis en cache", year, len(polls)) | ||||
| 172 | + return polls | ||||
| 173 | + | ||||
| 174 | + | ||||
| 175 | +def to_model_polls(polls: list[dict]) -> list[dict]: | ||||
| 176 | + """Format consommé par fit_trend (field_end en date, parts normalisées).""" | ||||
| 177 | + out = [] | ||||
| 178 | + for p in polls: | ||||
| 179 | + total = sum(p["shares"].values()) or 100.0 | ||||
| 180 | + out.append({"id": None, "pollster": p["pollster"], | ||||
| 181 | + "field_end": date.fromisoformat(p["field_end"]), | ||||
| 182 | + "sample_size": p["sample_size"], "mode": p.get("mode", "unknown"), | ||||
| 183 | + "shares": {k: v * 100.0 / total for k, v in p["shares"].items()}}) | ||||
| 184 | + return out | ||||
modified
backend/app/modeling/forecast.py
+24 −14
@@ -31,11 +31,13 @@ class VoteDistribution: | |||||
| 31 | 31 | ||||
| 32 | 32 | ||||
| 33 | def _summarize(x: np.ndarray, P: np.ndarray, rng: np.random.Generator, | 33 | def _summarize(x: np.ndarray, P: np.ndarray, rng: np.random.Generator, | ||
| 34 | − n: int = 20000) -> dict: | 34 | + n: int = 20000, parties: list[str] | None = None) -> dict: | ||
| 35 | − L = np.linalg.cholesky(P + 1e-10 * np.eye(M)) | 35 | + ps = parties or settings.parties | ||
| 36 | − draws = inv_alr(x + rng.standard_normal((n, M)) @ L.T) * 100.0 | 36 | + Mx = len(x) | ||
| 37 | + L = np.linalg.cholesky(P + 1e-10 * np.eye(Mx)) | ||||
| 38 | + draws = inv_alr(x + rng.standard_normal((n, Mx)) @ L.T) * 100.0 | ||||
| 37 | out = {} | 39 | out = {} | ||
| 38 | − for i, party in enumerate(settings.parties): | 40 | + for i, party in enumerate(ps): | ||
| 39 | d = draws[:, i] | 41 | d = draws[:, i] | ||
| 40 | out[party] = { | 42 | out[party] = { | ||
| 41 | "mean": round(float(d.mean()), 2), | 43 | "mean": round(float(d.mean()), 2), | ||
@@ -51,30 +53,38 @@ def _summarize(x: np.ndarray, P: np.ndarray, rng: np.random.Generator, | |||||
| 51 | 53 | ||||
| 52 | 54 | ||||
| 53 | def nowcast(trend: TrendResult, as_of: date, | 55 | def nowcast(trend: TrendResult, as_of: date, | ||
| 54 | − rng: np.random.Generator | None = None) -> VoteDistribution: | 56 | + rng: np.random.Generator | None = None, | ||
| 57 | + parties: list[str] | None = None) -> VoteDistribution: | ||||
| 55 | rng = rng or np.random.default_rng(1) | 58 | rng = rng or np.random.default_rng(1) | ||
| 56 | return VoteDistribution("nowcast", as_of, trend.x, trend.P, | 59 | return VoteDistribution("nowcast", as_of, trend.x, trend.P, | ||
| 57 | − _summarize(trend.x, trend.P, rng)) | 60 | + _summarize(trend.x, trend.P, rng, parties=parties)) | ||
| 58 | 61 | ||||
| 59 | 62 | ||||
| 60 | def forecast(trend: TrendResult, as_of: date, election_day: date, | 63 | def forecast(trend: TrendResult, as_of: date, election_day: date, | ||
| 61 | rng: np.random.Generator | None = None, | 64 | rng: np.random.Generator | None = None, | ||
| 62 | − drift_multiplier: float = 1.0) -> VoteDistribution: | 65 | + drift_multiplier: float = 1.0, | ||
| 63 | − """drift_multiplier ∈ [1, 1,45] : turbulence détectée (pic d'attention web) | 66 | + parties: list[str] | None = None, | ||
| 64 | − → l'incertitude d'évolution future est gonflée, la moyenne jamais touchée.""" | 67 | + industry_sd: float | None = None) -> VoteDistribution: | ||
| 68 | + """drift_multiplier ∈ [1, 1,5] : turbulence détectée (pic d'attention web) | ||||
| 69 | + → l'incertitude d'évolution future est gonflée, la moyenne jamais touchée. | ||||
| 70 | + industry_sd : erreur systémique de sondage (défaut : config; le replay et | ||||
| 71 | + le modèle d'erreur des sondeurs peuvent passer une valeur estimée LOEO).""" | ||||
| 65 | rng = rng or np.random.default_rng(2) | 72 | rng = rng or np.random.default_rng(2) | ||
| 73 | + Mx = len(trend.x) | ||||
| 66 | days = max(0, (election_day - as_of).days) | 74 | days = max(0, (election_day - as_of).days) | ||
| 67 | drift_var = trend.q * days * settings.campaign_drift_inflation * drift_multiplier | 75 | drift_var = trend.q * days * settings.campaign_drift_inflation * drift_multiplier | ||
| 68 | # + erreur systémique de sondage (corrélée entre partis via la composition) : | 76 | # + erreur systémique de sondage (corrélée entre partis via la composition) : | ||
| 69 | # même la veille du vote, l'industrie entière peut se tromper de ~2-3 pp. | 77 | # même la veille du vote, l'industrie entière peut se tromper de ~2-3 pp. | ||
| 70 | − P_f = trend.P + (drift_var + settings.industry_error_sd ** 2) * np.eye(M) | 78 | + sd = settings.industry_error_sd if industry_sd is None else industry_sd | ||
| 79 | + P_f = trend.P + (drift_var + sd ** 2) * np.eye(Mx) | ||||
| 71 | return VoteDistribution("forecast", as_of, trend.x, P_f, | 80 | return VoteDistribution("forecast", as_of, trend.x, P_f, | ||
| 72 | − _summarize(trend.x, P_f, rng)) | 81 | + _summarize(trend.x, P_f, rng, parties=parties)) | ||
| 73 | 82 | ||||
| 74 | 83 | ||||
| 75 | def distribution_from(kind: str, as_of: date, x: np.ndarray, P: np.ndarray, | 84 | def distribution_from(kind: str, as_of: date, x: np.ndarray, P: np.ndarray, | ||
| 76 | − seed: int = 3) -> VoteDistribution: | 85 | + seed: int = 3, | ||
| 86 | + parties: list[str] | None = None) -> VoteDistribution: | ||||
| 77 | """Distribution à partir d'un état (x, P) arbitraire — utilisé par les | 87 | """Distribution à partir d'un état (x, P) arbitraire — utilisé par les | ||
| 78 | − couches v2 (blend fondamentaux, ajustement médias).""" | 88 | + couches v2 (blend fondamentaux, ajustement médias) et le replay.""" | ||
| 79 | rng = np.random.default_rng(seed) | 89 | rng = np.random.default_rng(seed) | ||
| 80 | − return VoteDistribution(kind, as_of, x, P, _summarize(x, P, rng)) | 90 | + return VoteDistribution(kind, as_of, x, P, _summarize(x, P, rng, parties=parties)) | ||
modified
backend/app/modeling/fundamentals.py
+21 −12
@@ -70,14 +70,17 @@ class FundamentalsPrior: | |||||
| 70 | detail: dict = field(default_factory=dict) | 70 | detail: dict = field(default_factory=dict) | ||
| 71 | 71 | ||||
| 72 | 72 | ||||
| 73 | −def _ridge_fit() -> tuple[np.ndarray, float, list[float]]: | 73 | +def _ridge_fit(exclude_year: int | None = None) -> tuple[np.ndarray, float, list[float]]: | ||
| 74 | """Régression ridge « vote du sortant ~ vote précédent + satisfaction », | 74 | """Régression ridge « vote du sortant ~ vote précédent + satisfaction », | ||
| 75 | avec pénalité d'usure retranchée AVANT l'ajustement (paramètre fixé, pas | 75 | avec pénalité d'usure retranchée AVANT l'ajustement (paramètre fixé, pas | ||
| 76 | estimé — 8 points ne supportent pas un 3e prédicteur). | 76 | estimé — 8 points ne supportent pas un 3e prédicteur). | ||
| 77 | + `exclude_year` : LOEO strict pour le replay historique (§53 — l'élection | ||||
| 78 | + testée ne participe JAMAIS à l'ajustement de son propre prior). | ||||
| 77 | Retourne (coefficients [b0, b_prev, b_sat], RMSE leave-one-out, résidus LOO).""" | 79 | Retourne (coefficients [b0, b_prev, b_sat], RMSE leave-one-out, résidus LOO).""" | ||
| 78 | pen = settings.fundamentals_term_penalty_pp | 80 | pen = settings.fundamentals_term_penalty_pp | ||
| 79 | − X = np.array([[1.0, prev, sat] for (_, _, _, sat, prev, _) in HISTORY]) | 81 | + hist = [h for h in HISTORY if h[0] != exclude_year] | ||
| 80 | − y = np.array([res + pen * (terms - 1) for (_, _, terms, _, _, res) in HISTORY]) | 82 | + X = np.array([[1.0, prev, sat] for (_, _, _, sat, prev, _) in hist]) | ||
| 83 | + y = np.array([res + pen * (terms - 1) for (_, _, terms, _, _, res) in hist]) | ||||
| 81 | # centrage des prédicteurs (le ridge ne pénalise pas l'ordonnée à l'origine) | 84 | # centrage des prédicteurs (le ridge ne pénalise pas l'ordonnée à l'origine) | ||
| 82 | mx = X[:, 1:].mean(axis=0) | 85 | mx = X[:, 1:].mean(axis=0) | ||
| 83 | Xc = X.copy(); Xc[:, 1:] -= mx | 86 | Xc = X.copy(); Xc[:, 1:] -= mx | ||
@@ -100,17 +103,20 @@ def _ridge_fit() -> tuple[np.ndarray, float, list[float]]: | |||||
| 100 | 103 | ||||
| 101 | def compute_prior(as_of: date, incumbent: str = "CAQ", terms: int = 2, | 104 | def compute_prior(as_of: date, incumbent: str = "CAQ", terms: int = 2, | ||
| 102 | satisfaction: float | None = None, | 105 | satisfaction: float | None = None, | ||
| 103 | − prev_result: dict[str, float] | None = None) -> FundamentalsPrior: | 106 | + prev_result: dict[str, float] | None = None, | ||
| 107 | + exclude_year: int | None = None, | ||||
| 108 | + parties: list[str] | None = None) -> FundamentalsPrior: | ||||
| 104 | """Construit le prior de fondamentaux pour l'élection cible. | 109 | """Construit le prior de fondamentaux pour l'élection cible. | ||
| 105 | 110 | ||||
| 106 | prev_result : {party: %} de la dernière générale (défaut : 2022). | 111 | prev_result : {party: %} de la dernière générale (défaut : 2022). | ||
| 107 | satisfaction : % satisfaits du gouvernement (défaut : indicateur ingéré ou | 112 | satisfaction : % satisfaits du gouvernement (défaut : indicateur ingéré ou | ||
| 108 | valeur de repli de configuration).""" | 113 | valeur de repli de configuration).""" | ||
| 114 | + ps = parties or settings.parties | ||||
| 109 | prev = prev_result or {"CAQ": 40.98, "PLQ": 14.37, "QS": 15.43, | 115 | prev = prev_result or {"CAQ": 40.98, "PLQ": 14.37, "QS": 15.43, | ||
| 110 | "PQ": 14.61, "PCQ": 12.91, "AUT": 1.70} | 116 | "PQ": 14.61, "PCQ": 12.91, "AUT": 1.70} | ||
| 111 | sat = satisfaction if satisfaction is not None else settings.gov_satisfaction_fallback | 117 | sat = satisfaction if satisfaction is not None else settings.gov_satisfaction_fallback | ||
| 112 | 118 | ||||
| 113 | − beta, loo_rmse, loo = _ridge_fit() | 119 | + beta, loo_rmse, loo = _ridge_fit(exclude_year=exclude_year) | ||
| 114 | pen = settings.fundamentals_term_penalty_pp * (terms - 1) | 120 | pen = settings.fundamentals_term_penalty_pp * (terms - 1) | ||
| 115 | inc_vote = float(beta @ np.array([1.0, prev.get(incumbent, 35.0), sat])) - pen | 121 | inc_vote = float(beta @ np.array([1.0, prev.get(incumbent, 35.0), sat])) - pen | ||
| 116 | inc_vote = float(np.clip(inc_vote, 8.0, 55.0)) | 122 | inc_vote = float(np.clip(inc_vote, 8.0, 55.0)) | ||
@@ -118,7 +124,7 @@ def compute_prior(as_of: date, incumbent: str = "CAQ", terms: int = 2, | |||||
| 118 | # Opposition : persistance + rappel vers la moyenne de long terme, | 124 | # Opposition : persistance + rappel vers la moyenne de long terme, | ||
| 119 | # renormalisée sur l'espace restant (100 − sortant). | 125 | # renormalisée sur l'espace restant (100 − sortant). | ||
| 120 | raw = {} | 126 | raw = {} | ||
| 121 | − for p in settings.parties: | 127 | + for p in ps: | ||
| 122 | if p == incumbent: | 128 | if p == incumbent: | ||
| 123 | continue | 129 | continue | ||
| 124 | raw[p] = PERSISTENCE * prev.get(p, 2.0) + (1 - PERSISTENCE) * LONG_RUN_MEAN.get(p, 3.0) | 130 | raw[p] = PERSISTENCE * prev.get(p, 2.0) + (1 - PERSISTENCE) * LONG_RUN_MEAN.get(p, 3.0) | ||
@@ -127,7 +133,7 @@ def compute_prior(as_of: date, incumbent: str = "CAQ", terms: int = 2, | |||||
| 127 | shares = {p: v * rest / tot for p, v in raw.items()} | 133 | shares = {p: v * rest / tot for p, v in raw.items()} | ||
| 128 | shares[incumbent] = inc_vote | 134 | shares[incumbent] = inc_vote | ||
| 129 | 135 | ||||
| 130 | − vec = close(np.array([shares[p] for p in settings.parties]) / 100.0) | 136 | + vec = close(np.array([shares[p] for p in ps]) / 100.0) | ||
| 131 | x_f = alr(vec) | 137 | x_f = alr(vec) | ||
| 132 | # Prior diffus : LOO ±rmse pp sur le sortant → sd alr large et honnête. | 138 | # Prior diffus : LOO ±rmse pp sur le sortant → sd alr large et honnête. | ||
| 133 | sd = max(settings.fundamentals_prior_sd_alr, loo_rmse / 100.0 / max(vec.min(), 0.05)) | 139 | sd = max(settings.fundamentals_prior_sd_alr, loo_rmse / 100.0 / max(vec.min(), 0.05)) | ||
@@ -140,12 +146,13 @@ def compute_prior(as_of: date, incumbent: str = "CAQ", terms: int = 2, | |||||
| 140 | "b_vote_precedent": round(float(beta[1]), 3), | 146 | "b_vote_precedent": round(float(beta[1]), 3), | ||
| 141 | "b_satisfaction": round(float(beta[2]), 3), | 147 | "b_satisfaction": round(float(beta[2]), 3), | ||
| 142 | "loo_rmse_pp": round(loo_rmse, 2), "loo_residus": loo, | 148 | "loo_rmse_pp": round(loo_rmse, 2), "loo_residus": loo, | ||
| 143 | − "n_elections": len(HISTORY)}, | 149 | + "n_elections": len(HISTORY) - (1 if exclude_year else 0), | ||
| 150 | + "exclude_year": exclude_year}, | ||||
| 144 | "inputs": {"sortant": incumbent, "mandats": terms, "satisfaction": sat, | 151 | "inputs": {"sortant": incumbent, "mandats": terms, "satisfaction": sat, | ||
| 145 | "penalite_usure_pp": pen, | 152 | "penalite_usure_pp": pen, | ||
| 146 | − "vote_precedent": {p: prev.get(p) for p in settings.parties}}, | 153 | + "vote_precedent": {p: prev.get(p) for p in ps}}, | ||
| 147 | "prior_pct": {p: round(float(vec[i] * 100), 1) | 154 | "prior_pct": {p: round(float(vec[i] * 100), 1) | ||
| 148 | − for i, p in enumerate(settings.parties)}, | 155 | + for i, p in enumerate(ps)}, | ||
| 149 | "sd_alr": round(sd, 3), | 156 | "sd_alr": round(sd, 3), | ||
| 150 | }) | 157 | }) | ||
| 151 | 158 | ||||
@@ -159,8 +166,10 @@ def blend_weight(days_to_election: int) -> float: | |||||
| 159 | 166 | ||||
| 160 | 167 | ||||
| 161 | def blend(x_polls: np.ndarray, P_polls: np.ndarray, prior: FundamentalsPrior, | 168 | def blend(x_polls: np.ndarray, P_polls: np.ndarray, prior: FundamentalsPrior, | ||
| 162 | − days_to_election: int) -> tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray, dict]: | 169 | + days_to_election: int, | ||
| 170 | + parties: list[str] | None = None) -> tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray, dict]: | ||||
| 163 | """Combinaison bayésienne précision-pondérée : Λ = Λ_sondages + w·Λ_prior.""" | 171 | """Combinaison bayésienne précision-pondérée : Λ = Λ_sondages + w·Λ_prior.""" | ||
| 172 | + ps = parties or settings.parties | ||||
| 164 | w = blend_weight(days_to_election) | 173 | w = blend_weight(days_to_election) | ||
| 165 | M_ = len(x_polls) | 174 | M_ = len(x_polls) | ||
| 166 | if w <= 0: | 175 | if w <= 0: | ||
@@ -172,7 +181,7 @@ def blend(x_polls: np.ndarray, P_polls: np.ndarray, prior: FundamentalsPrior, | |||||
| 172 | xc = Pc @ (Lp @ x_polls + Lf @ prior.x) | 181 | xc = Pc @ (Lp @ x_polls + Lf @ prior.x) | ||
| 173 | share = float(np.trace(Lf) / np.trace(Lc)) | 182 | share = float(np.trace(Lf) / np.trace(Lc)) | ||
| 174 | dpp = {p: round(float((inv_alr(xc)[i] - inv_alr(x_polls)[i]) * 100), 3) | 183 | dpp = {p: round(float((inv_alr(xc)[i] - inv_alr(x_polls)[i]) * 100), 3) | ||
| 175 | − for i, p in enumerate(settings.parties)} | 184 | + for i, p in enumerate(ps)} | ||
| 176 | return xc, 0.5 * (Pc + Pc.T), { | 185 | return xc, 0.5 * (Pc + Pc.T), { | ||
| 177 | "weight_schedule": round(w, 4), "precision_share": round(share, 4), | 186 | "weight_schedule": round(w, 4), "precision_share": round(share, 4), | ||
| 178 | "delta_pp": dpp} | 187 | "delta_pp": dpp} | ||
modified
backend/app/modeling/house_effects.py
+3 −2
@@ -34,10 +34,11 @@ class PollsterProfile: | |||||
| 34 | detail: dict = field(default_factory=dict) | 34 | detail: dict = field(default_factory=dict) | ||
| 35 | 35 | ||||
| 36 | 36 | ||||
| 37 | −def compute_profiles(polls: list[dict], elections: list[dict]) -> dict[str, PollsterProfile]: | 37 | +def compute_profiles(polls: list[dict], elections: list[dict], | ||
| 38 | + parties: list[str] | None = None) -> dict[str, PollsterProfile]: | ||||
| 38 | """polls: [{pollster, field_end(date), shares{party: pct}}] | 39 | """polls: [{pollster, field_end(date), shares{party: pct}}] | ||
| 39 | elections: [{date(date), result{party: pct}}] — résultats réels connus.""" | 40 | elections: [{date(date), result{party: pct}}] — résultats réels connus.""" | ||
| 40 | − parties = [p for p in settings.parties if p != "AUT"] | 41 | + parties = [p for p in (parties or settings.parties) if p != "AUT"] | ||
| 41 | errs: dict[str, list[dict[str, float]]] = {} | 42 | errs: dict[str, list[dict[str, float]]] = {} | ||
| 42 | for el in elections: | 43 | for el in elections: | ||
| 43 | window_start = el["date"] - timedelta(days=FINAL_WINDOW_DAYS) | 44 | window_start = el["date"] - timedelta(days=FINAL_WINDOW_DAYS) | ||
added
backend/app/modeling/national/__init__.py
+4 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +# QC Élection Forecast — Plateforme de prévision électorale du Québec 2026 | ||||
| 2 | +# Auteur : Simon-Pierre Boucher | ||||
| 3 | +# Contact : contact@spboucher.ai | ||||
| 4 | +# https://www.qc-election.com | ||||
added
backend/app/modeling/national/pollster_error.py
+145 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,145 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +# QC Élection Forecast — Plateforme de prévision électorale du Québec 2026 | ||||
| 2 | +# Auteur : Simon-Pierre Boucher | ||||
| 3 | +# Contact : contact@spboucher.ai | ||||
| 4 | +# https://www.qc-election.com | ||||
| 5 | +"""Modèle dynamique d'erreur des sondeurs (§6-§10) — v1 multi-élections. | ||||
| 6 | + | ||||
| 7 | +Sépare explicitement, à partir des 6 élections rejouables (2007-2022) : | ||||
| 8 | + | ||||
| 9 | + * **erreur d'industrie** `industry_error[élection, parti]` : biais PARTAGÉ | ||||
| 10 | + des sondages finaux (fenêtre 21 j) vs le résultat — 2022 n'était pas un | ||||
| 11 | + accident : chaque élection a son erreur commune. σ_industrie devient une | ||||
| 12 | + quantité ESTIMÉE (espace alr, LOEO : jamais sur l'élection testée) au lieu | ||||
| 13 | + du 0,12 calibré à la main sur 2018/2022 (STATISTICAL_DEBT §industry). | ||||
| 14 | + * **house effects hiérarchiques** : h[maison] global (rétréci par le nombre | ||||
| 15 | + d'élections observées n/(n+k)) + déviation par élection (τ) — un sondeur | ||||
| 16 | + vu 1 fois garde une GRANDE incertitude au lieu d'un simple malus. | ||||
| 17 | + | ||||
| 18 | +Un plancher conservateur (`floor`) protège contre la sous-estimation quand | ||||
| 19 | +l'historique est court (§60 : priors conservateurs si données faibles).""" | ||||
| 20 | +from __future__ import annotations | ||||
| 21 | + | ||||
| 22 | +from datetime import timedelta | ||||
| 23 | + | ||||
| 24 | +import numpy as np | ||||
| 25 | + | ||||
| 26 | +from ...config import settings | ||||
| 27 | +from ..compositions import alr, close | ||||
| 28 | + | ||||
| 29 | +FINAL_WINDOW_DAYS = 21 | ||||
| 30 | +SIGMA_FLOOR = 0.08 # plancher conservateur (alr) — jamais en dessous | ||||
| 31 | +SIGMA_CAP = 0.25 # plafond de sécurité | ||||
| 32 | +SHRINK_K = 2.0 # h_global rétréci par n/(n+k) | ||||
| 33 | + | ||||
| 34 | + | ||||
| 35 | +def _final_avg_shares(polls: list[dict], eday, parties: list[str]) -> np.ndarray | None: | ||||
| 36 | + """Moyenne des sondages des 21 derniers jours (fractions, ordre `parties`).""" | ||||
| 37 | + window = [p for p in polls | ||||
| 38 | + if (eday - timedelta(days=FINAL_WINDOW_DAYS)) <= p["field_end"] <= eday] | ||||
| 39 | + if len(window) < 2: | ||||
| 40 | + return None | ||||
| 41 | + rows = [] | ||||
| 42 | + for p in window: | ||||
| 43 | + v = np.array([p["shares"].get(pt, 0.0) for pt in parties]) | ||||
| 44 | + if v[:len(parties) - 1].sum() > 60: | ||||
| 45 | + rows.append(close(v / max(v.sum(), 1e-9))) | ||||
| 46 | + return np.mean(rows, axis=0) if len(rows) >= 2 else None | ||||
| 47 | + | ||||
| 48 | + | ||||
| 49 | +_CACHE: dict = {} | ||||
| 50 | + | ||||
| 51 | + | ||||
| 52 | +def industry_errors() -> dict[int, dict]: | ||||
| 53 | + """Erreur d'industrie par élection : alr(moyenne finale) − alr(résultat). | ||||
| 54 | + (Mise en cache processus — relit les CSV une seule fois.)""" | ||||
| 55 | + if "errs" in _CACHE: | ||||
| 56 | + return _CACHE["errs"] | ||||
| 57 | + from ...ingest.wikipedia_historical import ELECTIONS, load_polls, to_model_polls | ||||
| 58 | + out: dict[int, dict] = {} | ||||
| 59 | + for yr, meta in ELECTIONS.items(): | ||||
| 60 | + parties = meta["parties"] | ||||
| 61 | + polls = to_model_polls(load_polls(yr)) | ||||
| 62 | + avg = _final_avg_shares(polls, meta["date"], parties) | ||||
| 63 | + if avg is None: | ||||
| 64 | + continue | ||||
| 65 | + actual = close(np.array([meta["result"][p] for p in parties]) / 100.0) | ||||
| 66 | + delta_alr = alr(avg) - alr(actual) | ||||
| 67 | + delta_pp = (avg - actual) * 100.0 | ||||
| 68 | + # composantes « principales » : le log-ratio d'un parti à 3 % explose | ||||
| 69 | + # pour 1 pp d'erreur — l'estimation de σ ne retient que les composantes | ||||
| 70 | + # dont le parti pèse ≥ 5 % (la référence alr est toujours principale). | ||||
| 71 | + main = [float(delta_alr[i - 1]) for i in range(1, len(parties)) | ||||
| 72 | + if actual[i] >= 0.05] | ||||
| 73 | + out[yr] = {"parties": parties, | ||||
| 74 | + "delta_alr": [round(float(v), 4) for v in delta_alr], | ||||
| 75 | + "main_delta_alr": [round(v, 4) for v in main], | ||||
| 76 | + "delta_pp": {p: round(float(delta_pp[i]), 2) | ||||
| 77 | + for i, p in enumerate(parties)}, | ||||
| 78 | + "rms_alr_main": round(float(np.sqrt(np.mean( | ||||
| 79 | + np.square(main)))), 4) if main else None} | ||||
| 80 | + _CACHE["errs"] = out | ||||
| 81 | + return out | ||||
| 82 | + | ||||
| 83 | + | ||||
| 84 | +def industry_sigma_loeo(test_year: int | None = None) -> float: | ||||
| 85 | + """σ_industrie (alr) estimé sur les élections ≠ test_year : RMS des erreurs | ||||
| 86 | + d'industrie composante par composante, borné [plancher, plafond].""" | ||||
| 87 | + errs = industry_errors() | ||||
| 88 | + vals = [v for yr, e in errs.items() if yr != test_year | ||||
| 89 | + for v in e["main_delta_alr"]] | ||||
| 90 | + if len(vals) < 6: | ||||
| 91 | + return settings.industry_error_sd | ||||
| 92 | + sigma = float(np.sqrt(np.mean(np.square(vals)))) | ||||
| 93 | + return float(np.clip(sigma, SIGMA_FLOOR, SIGMA_CAP)) | ||||
| 94 | + | ||||
| 95 | + | ||||
| 96 | +def hierarchical_house_effects() -> dict: | ||||
| 97 | + """h[maison, parti] : moyenne inter-élections rétrécie n/(n+k), avec la | ||||
| 98 | + dispersion inter-élections τ (les maisons vues 1 fois restent incertaines).""" | ||||
| 99 | + from ...ingest.wikipedia_historical import ELECTIONS, load_polls, to_model_polls | ||||
| 100 | + per: dict[str, dict[str, list[float]]] = {} | ||||
| 101 | + for yr, meta in ELECTIONS.items(): | ||||
| 102 | + parties = [p for p in meta["parties"] if p != "AUT"] | ||||
| 103 | + eday = meta["date"] | ||||
| 104 | + for p in to_model_polls(load_polls(yr)): | ||||
| 105 | + if not ((eday - timedelta(days=FINAL_WINDOW_DAYS)) | ||||
| 106 | + <= p["field_end"] <= eday): | ||||
| 107 | + continue | ||||
| 108 | + for pt in parties: | ||||
| 109 | + if pt in p["shares"] and pt in meta["result"]: | ||||
| 110 | + per.setdefault(p["pollster"], {}).setdefault( | ||||
| 111 | + f"{yr}:{pt}", []).append( | ||||
| 112 | + p["shares"][pt] - meta["result"][pt]) | ||||
| 113 | + out = {} | ||||
| 114 | + for house, cells in per.items(): | ||||
| 115 | + by_party: dict[str, list[float]] = {} | ||||
| 116 | + elections = set() | ||||
| 117 | + for key, devs in cells.items(): | ||||
| 118 | + yr, pt = key.split(":") | ||||
| 119 | + elections.add(yr) | ||||
| 120 | + by_party.setdefault(pt, []).append(float(np.mean(devs))) | ||||
| 121 | + n_e = len(elections) | ||||
| 122 | + shrink = n_e / (n_e + SHRINK_K) | ||||
| 123 | + h = {pt: round(float(np.mean(v)) * shrink, 2) for pt, v in by_party.items()} | ||||
| 124 | + tau = round(float(np.mean([np.std(v) for v in by_party.values() | ||||
| 125 | + if len(v) >= 2]) if any( | ||||
| 126 | + len(v) >= 2 for v in by_party.values()) else 3.0), 2) | ||||
| 127 | + out[house] = {"n_elections": n_e, "shrink": round(shrink, 2), | ||||
| 128 | + "house_effect_pp": h, "tau_pp": tau} | ||||
| 129 | + return out | ||||
| 130 | + | ||||
| 131 | + | ||||
| 132 | +def report() -> dict: | ||||
| 133 | + errs = industry_errors() | ||||
| 134 | + return { | ||||
| 135 | + "industry_errors": {str(k): v for k, v in errs.items()}, | ||||
| 136 | + "industry_sigma_alr": { | ||||
| 137 | + "all": round(industry_sigma_loeo(None), 4), | ||||
| 138 | + "loeo": {str(yr): round(industry_sigma_loeo(yr), 4) for yr in errs}, | ||||
| 139 | + "config_manual": settings.industry_error_sd, | ||||
| 140 | + "floor": SIGMA_FLOOR, "cap": SIGMA_CAP}, | ||||
| 141 | + "house_effects_hierarchical": hierarchical_house_effects(), | ||||
| 142 | + "note": ("Erreur d'industrie = biais PARTAGÉ des sondages finaux; " | ||||
| 143 | + "σ estimé LOEO remplace le 0,12 manuel dans le replay; la " | ||||
| 144 | + "production l'adopte via use_empirical_industry_error."), | ||||
| 145 | + } | ||||
modified
backend/app/modeling/trend.py
+31 −19
@@ -24,14 +24,19 @@ from .compositions import alr, alr_obs_cov, close, inv_alr | |||||
| 24 | from .house_effects import PollsterProfile, adjust_shares, profile_for | 24 | from .house_effects import PollsterProfile, adjust_shares, profile_for | ||
| 25 | from .weights import effective_n | 25 | from .weights import effective_n | ||
| 26 | 26 | ||||
| 27 | −M = len(settings.parties) - 1 # dimension de l'état (K-1) | 27 | +M = len(settings.parties) - 1 # dimension de l'état (K-1) — élection cible | ||
| 28 | 28 | ||||
| 29 | +# Le cœur est paramétré par la liste de partis : le replay historique rejoue | ||||
| 30 | +# des ères différentes (ADQ 2007-2008, pas de PCQ avant 2022…) avec le même code. | ||||
| 29 | 31 | ||||
| 30 | −def shares_vector(shares: dict[str, float]) -> np.ndarray: | 32 | + | ||
| 33 | +def shares_vector(shares: dict[str, float], | ||||
| 34 | + parties: list[str] | None = None) -> np.ndarray: | ||||
| 31 | """dict {parti: %} → vecteur ordonné (fractions, somme 1).""" | 35 | """dict {parti: %} → vecteur ordonné (fractions, somme 1).""" | ||
| 32 | − v = np.array([shares.get(p, 0.0) for p in settings.parties], dtype=float) | 36 | + ps = parties or settings.parties | ||
| 33 | − if v[settings.parties.index("AUT")] == 0.0: | 37 | + v = np.array([shares.get(p, 0.0) for p in ps], dtype=float) | ||
| 34 | − v[settings.parties.index("AUT")] = max(0.5, 100.0 - v.sum()) | 38 | + if "AUT" in ps and v[ps.index("AUT")] == 0.0: | ||
| 39 | + v[ps.index("AUT")] = max(0.5, 100.0 - v.sum()) | ||||
| 35 | return close(v / 100.0) | 40 | return close(v / 100.0) | ||
| 36 | 41 | ||||
| 37 | 42 | ||||
@@ -59,16 +64,19 @@ class TrendResult: | |||||
| 59 | n_polls: int | 64 | n_polls: int | ||
| 60 | 65 | ||||
| 61 | 66 | ||||
| 62 | −def prepare_polls(polls: list[dict], profiles: dict[str, PollsterProfile]) -> list[PreparedPoll]: | 67 | +def prepare_polls(polls: list[dict], profiles: dict[str, PollsterProfile], | ||
| 68 | + parties: list[str] | None = None) -> list[PreparedPoll]: | ||||
| 69 | + ps = parties or settings.parties | ||||
| 70 | + min_main = max(3, len(ps) - 2) | ||||
| 63 | out = [] | 71 | out = [] | ||
| 64 | for poll in polls: | 72 | for poll in polls: | ||
| 65 | prof = profile_for(profiles, poll["pollster"]) | 73 | prof = profile_for(profiles, poll["pollster"]) | ||
| 66 | − shares = {p: v for p, v in poll["shares"].items() if p in settings.parties} | 74 | + shares = {p: v for p, v in poll["shares"].items() if p in ps} | ||
| 67 | main = {p: v for p, v in shares.items() if p != "AUT"} | 75 | main = {p: v for p, v in shares.items() if p != "AUT"} | ||
| 68 | − if len(main) < 4: | 76 | + if len(main) < min_main: | ||
| 69 | continue | 77 | continue | ||
| 70 | adj = adjust_shares(shares, prof) | 78 | adj = adjust_shares(shares, prof) | ||
| 71 | − p_adj = shares_vector(adj) | 79 | + p_adj = shares_vector(adj, ps) | ||
| 72 | n_eff = effective_n(poll.get("sample_size"), poll.get("mode", "unknown")) | 80 | n_eff = effective_n(poll.get("sample_size"), poll.get("mode", "unknown")) | ||
| 73 | # la cote du sondeur module la précision effective (jamais > ±40 %) | 81 | # la cote du sondeur module la précision effective (jamais > ±40 %) | ||
| 74 | n_scaled = n_eff * prof.weight_multiplier | 82 | n_scaled = n_eff * prof.weight_multiplier | ||
@@ -88,15 +96,16 @@ def _filter(prepared: list[PreparedPoll], grid: list[date], q: float, | |||||
| 88 | x0: np.ndarray, P0: np.ndarray, smooth: bool = False): | 96 | x0: np.ndarray, P0: np.ndarray, smooth: bool = False): | ||
| 89 | """Filtre de Kalman sur grille quotidienne; lisseur RTS optionnel.""" | 97 | """Filtre de Kalman sur grille quotidienne; lisseur RTS optionnel.""" | ||
| 90 | T = len(grid) | 98 | T = len(grid) | ||
| 99 | + Mx = len(x0) | ||||
| 91 | by_day: dict[date, list[PreparedPoll]] = {} | 100 | by_day: dict[date, list[PreparedPoll]] = {} | ||
| 92 | for p in prepared: | 101 | for p in prepared: | ||
| 93 | by_day.setdefault(p.field_end, []).append(p) | 102 | by_day.setdefault(p.field_end, []).append(p) | ||
| 94 | 103 | ||||
| 95 | x, P = x0.copy(), P0.copy() | 104 | x, P = x0.copy(), P0.copy() | ||
| 96 | loglik = 0.0 | 105 | loglik = 0.0 | ||
| 97 | − xs_pred = np.zeros((T, M)); Ps_pred = np.zeros((T, M, M)) | 106 | + xs_pred = np.zeros((T, Mx)); Ps_pred = np.zeros((T, Mx, Mx)) | ||
| 98 | − xs_filt = np.zeros((T, M)); Ps_filt = np.zeros((T, M, M)) | 107 | + xs_filt = np.zeros((T, Mx)); Ps_filt = np.zeros((T, Mx, Mx)) | ||
| 99 | − I = np.eye(M) | 108 | + I = np.eye(Mx) | ||
| 100 | for t, d in enumerate(grid): | 109 | for t, d in enumerate(grid): | ||
| 101 | if t > 0: | 110 | if t > 0: | ||
| 102 | P = P + q * I | 111 | P = P + q * I | ||
@@ -110,7 +119,7 @@ def _filter(prepared: list[PreparedPoll], grid: list[date], q: float, | |||||
| 110 | P = (I - K) @ P | 119 | P = (I - K) @ P | ||
| 111 | P = 0.5 * (P + P.T) | 120 | P = 0.5 * (P + P.T) | ||
| 112 | sign, logdet = np.linalg.slogdet(S) | 121 | sign, logdet = np.linalg.slogdet(S) | ||
| 113 | − loglik += -0.5 * (M * np.log(2 * np.pi) + logdet + innov @ Sinv @ innov) | 122 | + loglik += -0.5 * (Mx * np.log(2 * np.pi) + logdet + innov @ Sinv @ innov) | ||
| 114 | xs_filt[t], Ps_filt[t] = x, P | 123 | xs_filt[t], Ps_filt[t] = x, P | ||
| 115 | 124 | ||||
| 116 | if not smooth: | 125 | if not smooth: | ||
@@ -125,8 +134,11 @@ def _filter(prepared: list[PreparedPoll], grid: list[date], q: float, | |||||
| 125 | 134 | ||||
| 126 | 135 | ||||
| 127 | def fit_trend(polls: list[dict], profiles: dict[str, PollsterProfile], | 136 | def fit_trend(polls: list[dict], profiles: dict[str, PollsterProfile], | ||
| 128 | − as_of: date, rng: np.random.Generator | None = None) -> TrendResult | None: | 137 | + as_of: date, rng: np.random.Generator | None = None, | ||
| 129 | − prepared = [p for p in prepare_polls(polls, profiles) if p.field_end <= as_of] | 138 | + parties: list[str] | None = None) -> TrendResult | None: | ||
| 139 | + ps = parties or settings.parties | ||||
| 140 | + Mx = len(ps) - 1 | ||||
| 141 | + prepared = [p for p in prepare_polls(polls, profiles, ps) if p.field_end <= as_of] | ||||
| 130 | if len(prepared) < 3: | 142 | if len(prepared) < 3: | ||
| 131 | return None | 143 | return None | ||
| 132 | rng = rng or np.random.default_rng(20261005) | 144 | rng = rng or np.random.default_rng(20261005) | ||
@@ -134,7 +146,7 @@ def fit_trend(polls: list[dict], profiles: dict[str, PollsterProfile], | |||||
| 134 | grid = [start + timedelta(days=i) for i in range((as_of - start).days + 1)] | 146 | grid = [start + timedelta(days=i) for i in range((as_of - start).days + 1)] | ||
| 135 | 147 | ||||
| 136 | x0 = prepared[0].y.copy() | 148 | x0 = prepared[0].y.copy() | ||
| 137 | − P0 = np.eye(M) * 0.09 # a priori large (~±6 pp) | 149 | + P0 = np.eye(Mx) * 0.09 # a priori large (~±6 pp) | ||
| 138 | 150 | ||||
| 139 | # Estimation de q par vraisemblance profilée (grille log-uniforme) | 151 | # Estimation de q par vraisemblance profilée (grille log-uniforme) | ||
| 140 | qs = np.geomspace(settings.rw_daily_sd_min ** 2, settings.rw_daily_sd_max ** 2, 12) | 152 | qs = np.geomspace(settings.rw_daily_sd_min ** 2, settings.rw_daily_sd_max ** 2, 12) | ||
@@ -148,11 +160,11 @@ def fit_trend(polls: list[dict], profiles: dict[str, PollsterProfile], | |||||
| 148 | 160 | ||||
| 149 | # Parts lissées + intervalle crédible 95 % par échantillonnage | 161 | # Parts lissées + intervalle crédible 95 % par échantillonnage | ||
| 150 | T = len(grid) | 162 | T = len(grid) | ||
| 151 | − share_mean = np.zeros((T, M + 1)); share_lo = np.zeros((T, M + 1)); share_hi = np.zeros((T, M + 1)) | 163 | + share_mean = np.zeros((T, Mx + 1)); share_lo = np.zeros((T, Mx + 1)); share_hi = np.zeros((T, Mx + 1)) | ||
| 152 | n_draw = 400 | 164 | n_draw = 400 | ||
| 153 | for t in range(T): | 165 | for t in range(T): | ||
| 154 | − L = np.linalg.cholesky(Ps_s[t] + 1e-10 * np.eye(M)) | 166 | + L = np.linalg.cholesky(Ps_s[t] + 1e-10 * np.eye(Mx)) | ||
| 155 | − draws = xs_s[t] + rng.standard_normal((n_draw, M)) @ L.T | 167 | + draws = xs_s[t] + rng.standard_normal((n_draw, Mx)) @ L.T | ||
| 156 | s = inv_alr(draws) | 168 | s = inv_alr(draws) | ||
| 157 | share_mean[t] = inv_alr(xs_s[t]) | 169 | share_mean[t] = inv_alr(xs_s[t]) | ||
| 158 | share_lo[t] = np.percentile(s, 2.5, axis=0) | 170 | share_lo[t] = np.percentile(s, 2.5, axis=0) | ||
added
backend/app/modeling/validation/historical_replay.py
+150 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,150 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +# QC Élection Forecast — Plateforme de prévision électorale du Québec 2026 | ||||
| 2 | +# Auteur : Simon-Pierre Boucher | ||||
| 3 | +# Contact : contact@spboucher.ai | ||||
| 4 | +# https://www.qc-election.com | ||||
| 5 | +"""Historical Replay Engine (§52-54) — la validation PRINCIPALE du modèle. | ||||
| 6 | + | ||||
| 7 | +Rejoue les élections 2007, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2018 (national) et 2022 | ||||
| 8 | +(national + circonscriptions, via le backtest existant) en LEAVE-ONE-ELECTION-OUT | ||||
| 9 | +strict : | ||||
| 10 | + | ||||
| 11 | + * house effects appris uniquement sur les AUTRES élections; | ||||
| 12 | + * prior de fondamentaux ajusté avec `exclude_year` (l'élection testée ne | ||||
| 13 | + participe jamais à son propre prior); | ||||
| 14 | + * σ_industrie estimé sur les AUTRES élections (`national/pollster_error.py`); | ||||
| 15 | + * rolling origin J-120 → J-1 : seulement l'information ≤ date. | ||||
| 16 | + | ||||
| 17 | +Scores propres (§55) : EAM/RMSE du vote, couverture 50/90/95, CRPS, log score, | ||||
| 18 | +sharpness, biais signé. Rapport : `data/replay_report.json` + `/api/replay`. | ||||
| 19 | +""" | ||||
| 20 | +from __future__ import annotations | ||||
| 21 | + | ||||
| 22 | +import json | ||||
| 23 | +from datetime import date, timedelta | ||||
| 24 | + | ||||
| 25 | +import numpy as np | ||||
| 26 | + | ||||
| 27 | +from ...config import DATA_DIR, settings | ||||
| 28 | +from ..compositions import alr, close, inv_alr | ||||
| 29 | +from ..forecast import forecast as fc | ||||
| 30 | +from ..fundamentals import HISTORY, blend, compute_prior | ||||
| 31 | +from ..house_effects import compute_profiles | ||||
| 32 | +from ..trend import fit_trend | ||||
| 33 | +from .scoring import (crps_from_draws, interval_coverage, log_score_alr, | ||||
| 34 | + sharpness, vote_errors) | ||||
| 35 | + | ||||
| 36 | +HORIZONS = [120, 90, 60, 45, 30, 21, 14, 7, 3, 1] | ||||
| 37 | + | ||||
| 38 | + | ||||
| 39 | +def _era_prev_result(year: int) -> dict[str, float] | None: | ||||
| 40 | + """Vote de l'élection PRÉCÉDENTE, exprimé dans l'ère de partis de `year`.""" | ||||
| 41 | + from ...ingest.wikipedia_historical import ELECTIONS | ||||
| 42 | + PREV = {2007: {"PLQ": 45.99, "PQ": 33.24, "ADQ": 18.18, "QS": 1.06, "AUT": 1.73}, | ||||
| 43 | + 2008: {"PLQ": 33.08, "PQ": 28.35, "ADQ": 30.84, "QS": 3.64, "AUT": 4.09}, | ||||
| 44 | + 2012: {"PLQ": 42.08, "PQ": 35.17, "CAQ": 16.37, "QS": 3.78, "AUT": 2.60}, | ||||
| 45 | + 2014: {"PLQ": 31.20, "PQ": 31.95, "CAQ": 27.05, "QS": 6.03, "AUT": 3.77}, | ||||
| 46 | + 2018: {"PLQ": 41.52, "PQ": 25.38, "CAQ": 23.05, "QS": 7.63, "AUT": 2.42}} | ||||
| 47 | + return PREV.get(year) | ||||
| 48 | + | ||||
| 49 | + | ||||
| 50 | +def _loeo_profiles(test_year: int, parties: list[str]): | ||||
| 51 | + """House effects appris sur toutes les élections rejouables ≠ test_year | ||||
| 52 | + (dans l'ère de partis du test — seuls les partis communs contribuent).""" | ||||
| 53 | + from ...ingest.wikipedia_historical import ELECTIONS, load_polls, to_model_polls | ||||
| 54 | + polls, elections = [], [] | ||||
| 55 | + for yr, meta in ELECTIONS.items(): | ||||
| 56 | + if yr == test_year: | ||||
| 57 | + continue | ||||
| 58 | + elections.append({"date": meta["date"], "result": meta["result"]}) | ||||
| 59 | + polls.extend(to_model_polls(load_polls(yr))) | ||||
| 60 | + return compute_profiles(polls, elections, parties=parties) | ||||
| 61 | + | ||||
| 62 | + | ||||
| 63 | +def replay_election(year: int, use_fundamentals: bool = True, | ||||
| 64 | + use_loeo_house: bool = True, | ||||
| 65 | + industry_sd: float | None = None, | ||||
| 66 | + horizons: list[int] | None = None) -> dict: | ||||
| 67 | + """Rejoue une élection à tous les horizons; retourne les scores.""" | ||||
| 68 | + from ...ingest.wikipedia_historical import ELECTIONS, load_polls, to_model_polls | ||||
| 69 | + meta = ELECTIONS[year] | ||||
| 70 | + parties = meta["parties"] | ||||
| 71 | + eday = meta["date"] | ||||
| 72 | + actual = meta["result"] | ||||
| 73 | + actual_vec = close(np.array([actual[p] for p in parties]) / 100.0) | ||||
| 74 | + polls = to_model_polls(load_polls(year)) | ||||
| 75 | + profiles = _loeo_profiles(year, parties) if use_loeo_house else {} | ||||
| 76 | + prev = _era_prev_result(year) | ||||
| 77 | + | ||||
| 78 | + rows = [] | ||||
| 79 | + rng = np.random.default_rng(year) | ||||
| 80 | + for h in (horizons or HORIZONS): | ||||
| 81 | + as_of = eday - timedelta(days=h) | ||||
| 82 | + trend = fit_trend(polls, profiles, as_of, parties=parties) | ||||
| 83 | + if trend is None: | ||||
| 84 | + rows.append({"horizon": h, "error": "sondages insuffisants"}) | ||||
| 85 | + continue | ||||
| 86 | + f = fc(trend, as_of, eday, parties=parties, industry_sd=industry_sd) | ||||
| 87 | + if use_fundamentals and prev is not None: | ||||
| 88 | + hist_row = next((r for r in HISTORY if r[0] == year), None) | ||||
| 89 | + if hist_row: | ||||
| 90 | + _, inc, terms, sat, _, _ = hist_row | ||||
| 91 | + prior = compute_prior(as_of, incumbent=inc, terms=terms, | ||||
| 92 | + satisfaction=sat, prev_result=prev, | ||||
| 93 | + exclude_year=year, parties=parties) | ||||
| 94 | + x_b, P_b, _ = blend(f.x, f.P, prior, h, parties=parties) | ||||
| 95 | + from ..forecast import distribution_from | ||||
| 96 | + f = distribution_from("forecast", as_of, x_b, P_b, | ||||
| 97 | + parties=parties) | ||||
| 98 | + # tirages pour CRPS | ||||
| 99 | + Mx = len(f.x) | ||||
| 100 | + L = np.linalg.cholesky(f.P + 1e-10 * np.eye(Mx)) | ||||
| 101 | + draws = inv_alr(f.x + rng.standard_normal((4000, Mx)) @ L.T) * 100.0 | ||||
| 102 | + fc_mean = {p: f.summary[p]["mean"] for p in parties} | ||||
| 103 | + rows.append({ | ||||
| 104 | + "horizon": h, "as_of": as_of.isoformat(), "n_polls": trend.n_polls, | ||||
| 105 | + **vote_errors(fc_mean, actual, parties), | ||||
| 106 | + **interval_coverage(f.summary, actual, parties), | ||||
| 107 | + "crps_pp": crps_from_draws(draws, actual_vec * 100.0), | ||||
| 108 | + "log_score": log_score_alr(f.x, f.P, alr(actual_vec)), | ||||
| 109 | + "sharpness_pp": sharpness(f.summary, parties), | ||||
| 110 | + "forecast": {p: round(fc_mean[p], 1) for p in parties}, | ||||
| 111 | + }) | ||||
| 112 | + ok = [r for r in rows if "error" not in r] | ||||
| 113 | + agg = {} | ||||
| 114 | + if ok: | ||||
| 115 | + for k in ("mae_pp", "rmse_pp", "crps_pp", "log_score", "sharpness_pp"): | ||||
| 116 | + agg[k] = round(float(np.mean([r[k] for r in ok])), 3) | ||||
| 117 | + for k in ("coverage_50", "coverage_90", "coverage_95"): | ||||
| 118 | + vals = [r[k] for r in ok if k in r] | ||||
| 119 | + if vals: | ||||
| 120 | + agg[k] = round(float(np.mean(vals)), 3) | ||||
| 121 | + return {"year": year, "parties": parties, "actual": actual, | ||||
| 122 | + "horizons": rows, "avg": agg} | ||||
| 123 | + | ||||
| 124 | + | ||||
| 125 | +def run_replay(use_fundamentals: bool = True, | ||||
| 126 | + industry_from_loeo: bool = True) -> dict: | ||||
| 127 | + """Replay complet multi-élections (national). 2022 reste couvert par le | ||||
| 128 | + backtest circonscriptions existant — les deux rapports se complètent.""" | ||||
| 129 | + from ...ingest.wikipedia_historical import ELECTIONS | ||||
| 130 | + from ..national.pollster_error import industry_sigma_loeo | ||||
| 131 | + report = {"generated": date.today().isoformat(), | ||||
| 132 | + "model_version": settings.model_version, | ||||
| 133 | + "protocol": ("LOEO strict : house effects, fondamentaux et " | ||||
| 134 | + "σ_industrie appris sur les autres élections; " | ||||
| 135 | + "rolling origin J-120→J-1."), | ||||
| 136 | + "elections": {}} | ||||
| 137 | + for yr in sorted(ELECTIONS): | ||||
| 138 | + sd = industry_sigma_loeo(yr) if industry_from_loeo else None | ||||
| 139 | + rep = replay_election(yr, use_fundamentals=use_fundamentals, | ||||
| 140 | + industry_sd=sd) | ||||
| 141 | + rep["industry_sd_loeo"] = round(sd, 4) if sd is not None else None | ||||
| 142 | + report["elections"][str(yr)] = rep | ||||
| 143 | + # agrégat global (moyenne des moyennes par élection) | ||||
| 144 | + aggs = [e["avg"] for e in report["elections"].values() if e["avg"]] | ||||
| 145 | + if aggs: | ||||
| 146 | + report["overall"] = {k: round(float(np.mean([a[k] for a in aggs if k in a])), 3) | ||||
| 147 | + for k in aggs[0]} | ||||
| 148 | + (DATA_DIR / "replay_report.json").write_text( | ||||
| 149 | + json.dumps(report, indent=1, ensure_ascii=False)) | ||||
| 150 | + return report | ||||
modified
backend/app/modeling/validation/scoring.py
+21 −0
@@ -83,6 +83,27 @@ def calibration_bins(probs: np.ndarray, outcomes: np.ndarray, | |||||
| 83 | return bins | 83 | return bins | ||
| 84 | 84 | ||||
| 85 | 85 | ||||
| 86 | +def crps_from_draws(draws: np.ndarray, actual: np.ndarray) -> float: | ||||
| 87 | + """CRPS moyen par parti à partir d'échantillons du posterior (en pp). | ||||
| 88 | + CRPS = E|X − y| − ½·E|X − X'| (estimateur par paires décalées).""" | ||||
| 89 | + n = len(draws) | ||||
| 90 | + term1 = np.abs(draws - actual[None, :]).mean(axis=0) | ||||
| 91 | + perm = np.roll(np.arange(n), n // 2) | ||||
| 92 | + term2 = 0.5 * np.abs(draws - draws[perm]).mean(axis=0) | ||||
| 93 | + return round(float((term1 - term2).mean()), 3) | ||||
| 94 | + | ||||
| 95 | + | ||||
| 96 | +def log_score_alr(x: np.ndarray, P: np.ndarray, actual_alr: np.ndarray) -> float: | ||||
| 97 | + """Log-densité prédictive de la composition réelle sous le posterior alr | ||||
| 98 | + (gaussienne multivariée) — plus haut = mieux.""" | ||||
| 99 | + Mx = len(x) | ||||
| 100 | + diff = actual_alr - x | ||||
| 101 | + Pi = P + 1e-10 * np.eye(Mx) | ||||
| 102 | + sign, logdet = np.linalg.slogdet(Pi) | ||||
| 103 | + return round(float(-0.5 * (Mx * np.log(2 * np.pi) + logdet | ||||
| 104 | + + diff @ np.linalg.inv(Pi) @ diff)), 3) | ||||
| 105 | + | ||||
| 106 | + | ||||
| 86 | def score_snapshot(forecast_summary: dict, districts: list[dict], | 107 | def score_snapshot(forecast_summary: dict, districts: list[dict], | ||
| 87 | actual_national: dict[str, float], | 108 | actual_national: dict[str, float], | ||
| 88 | actual_winners: dict[str, str], | 109 | actual_winners: dict[str, str], | ||
modified
backend/app/pipeline.py
+17 −2
@@ -133,9 +133,19 @@ def run_forecast(db: Session, as_of: date | None = None, label: str | None = Non | |||||
| 133 | volatility = {"multiplier": float(attention.get("drift_multiplier", 1.0))} | 133 | volatility = {"multiplier": float(attention.get("drift_multiplier", 1.0))} | ||
| 134 | drift_mult = float(volatility.get("multiplier", 1.0)) | 134 | drift_mult = float(volatility.get("multiplier", 1.0)) | ||
| 135 | 135 | ||||
| 136 | + # σ_industrie : appris LOEO sur 2007-2022 si le flag l'active (v3.1) | ||||
| 137 | + industry_sd = None | ||||
| 138 | + if settings.use_empirical_industry_error: | ||||
| 139 | + try: | ||||
| 140 | + from .modeling.national.pollster_error import industry_sigma_loeo | ||||
| 141 | + industry_sd = industry_sigma_loeo(None) | ||||
| 142 | + except Exception: | ||||
| 143 | + industry_sd = None | ||||
| 144 | + | ||||
| 136 | now_d = nc(trend, as_of) | 145 | now_d = nc(trend, as_of) | ||
| 137 | fc_b = fc(trend, as_of, target.election_date, | 146 | fc_b = fc(trend, as_of, target.election_date, | ||
| 138 | − drift_multiplier=drift_mult) # sondages + partielles | 147 | + drift_multiplier=drift_mult, | ||
| 148 | + industry_sd=industry_sd) # sondages + partielles | ||||
| 139 | 149 | ||||
| 140 | # --- couche 3 : prior de fondamentaux (poids décroissant vers le scrutin) --- | 150 | # --- couche 3 : prior de fondamentaux (poids décroissant vers le scrutin) --- | ||
| 141 | result_2022 = (db.query(Mo.Election) | 151 | result_2022 = (db.query(Mo.Election) | ||
@@ -169,7 +179,8 @@ def run_forecast(db: Session, as_of: date | None = None, label: str | None = Non | |||||
| 169 | s = SIM.run_simulation(inp, n_sims=8000, | 179 | s = SIM.run_simulation(inp, n_sims=8000, | ||
| 170 | rng=np.random.default_rng(seed)) | 180 | rng=np.random.default_rng(seed)) | ||
| 171 | return {p: s.seats[p]["prob_most"] for p in settings.parties} | 181 | return {p: s.seats[p]["prob_most"] for p in settings.parties} | ||
| 172 | − fc_a = fc(trend_a, as_of, target.election_date, drift_multiplier=drift_mult) | 182 | + fc_a = fc(trend_a, as_of, target.election_date, drift_multiplier=drift_mult, | ||
| 183 | + industry_sd=industry_sd) | ||||
| 173 | variants = [ | 184 | variants = [ | ||
| 174 | ("sondages", "Sondages seuls (modèle v1)", fc_a.x, fc_a.P), | 185 | ("sondages", "Sondages seuls (modèle v1)", fc_a.x, fc_a.P), | ||
| 175 | ("partielles", "+ votes réels des partielles", fc_b.x, fc_b.P), | 186 | ("partielles", "+ votes réels des partielles", fc_b.x, fc_b.P), | ||
@@ -265,6 +276,10 @@ def run_forecast(db: Session, as_of: date | None = None, label: str | None = Non | |||||
| 265 | diagnostics={"q_daily_var": trend.q, "loglik": trend.loglik, | 276 | diagnostics={"q_daily_var": trend.q, "loglik": trend.loglik, | ||
| 266 | "days_to_election": days_left, | 277 | "days_to_election": days_left, | ||
| 267 | "n_byelections": len(bye_polls), | 278 | "n_byelections": len(bye_polls), | ||
| 279 | + "industry_sd": round(industry_sd, 4) if industry_sd | ||||
| 280 | + else settings.industry_error_sd, | ||||
| 281 | + "industry_sd_source": ("loeo-2007-2022" if industry_sd | ||||
| 282 | + else "config-manuel"), | ||||
| 268 | "fundamentals_weight": (fund_diag.get("blend") or {}).get( | 283 | "fundamentals_weight": (fund_diag.get("blend") or {}).get( | ||
| 269 | "precision_share", 0.0)}) | 284 | "precision_share", 0.0)}) | ||
| 270 | for d in sim.districts: | 285 | for d in sim.districts: | ||
modified
backend/app/seed.py
+13 −0
@@ -212,6 +212,19 @@ def seed_all(db: Session | None = None) -> dict: | |||||
| 212 | "Engine à confirmation croisée, circonscriptions pivots de la " | 212 | "Engine à confirmation croisée, circonscriptions pivots de la " | ||
| 213 | "majorité (méthode des simulations), page /circonscriptions " | 213 | "majorité (méthode des simulations), page /circonscriptions " | ||
| 214 | "(forecast par comté), API v3 (/api/v3/*), data-health admin."))) | 214 | "(forecast par comté), API v3 (/api/v3/*), data-health admin."))) | ||
| 215 | + get_or_create(db, Mo.ModelVersion, version="3.1.0", | ||||
| 216 | + defaults=dict(changelog=( | ||||
| 217 | + "Méthodologie ultra avancée — première vague : REPLAY HISTORIQUE " | ||||
| 218 | + "multi-élections (2007/2008/2012/2014/2018/2022, 462 sondages, " | ||||
| 219 | + "LOEO strict : house effects, fondamentaux et σ appris sur les " | ||||
| 220 | + "autres élections; rolling origin J-120→J-1; CRPS + log score); " | ||||
| 221 | + "modèle d'erreur des sondeurs (erreur d'industrie par élection, " | ||||
| 222 | + "house effects hiérarchiques rétrécis n/(n+k)); σ_industrie " | ||||
| 223 | + "APPRIS (LOEO ≈0,21 vs 0,12 manuel) adopté après validation : " | ||||
| 224 | + "log score −3,80 vs −5,33, CRPS 2,64 vs 2,67, couverture 95 % " | ||||
| 225 | + "83 % vs 76,5 %, EAM inchangée. Cœur alr paramétré par ères de " | ||||
| 226 | + "partis (ADQ 2007-2008). Audits : METHODOLOGY_AUDIT, " | ||||
| 227 | + "STATISTICAL_DEBT, V3_MODEL_ARCHITECTURE, HISTORICAL_REPLAY_PLAN."))) | ||||
| 215 | # Sources | 228 | # Sources | ||
| 216 | for name, url, kind in [ | 229 | for name, url, kind in [ | ||
| 217 | ("Wikipédia — sondages 2026", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Quebec_general_election", "polls"), | 230 | ("Wikipédia — sondages 2026", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Quebec_general_election", "polls"), | ||
added
backend/data/historical/polls_2007.csv
+145 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,145 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +pollster,field_end,sample_size,mode,source_url,party,raw_value,accessed_at | ||||
| 2 | +Angus Reid,2007-03-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 3 | +Angus Reid,2007-03-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,23.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 4 | +Angus Reid,2007-03-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 5 | +Angus Reid,2007-03-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,12.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 6 | +CROP,2007-03-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 7 | +CROP,2007-03-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 8 | +CROP,2007-03-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 9 | +CROP,2007-03-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 10 | +CROP,2007-03-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 11 | +Léger,2007-03-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 12 | +Léger,2007-03-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 13 | +Léger,2007-03-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,35.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 14 | +Léger,2007-03-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 15 | +Léger,2007-03-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 16 | +CROP,2007-03-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 17 | +CROP,2007-03-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 18 | +CROP,2007-03-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 19 | +CROP,2007-03-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 20 | +CROP,2007-03-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 21 | +CROP,2007-02-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 22 | +CROP,2007-02-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 23 | +CROP,2007-02-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 24 | +CROP,2007-02-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 25 | +CROP,2007-02-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 26 | +Léger,2007-01-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,37.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 27 | +Léger,2007-01-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 28 | +Léger,2007-01-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 29 | +Léger,2007-01-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 30 | +Léger,2007-01-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 31 | +CROP,2006-09-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,36.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 32 | +CROP,2006-09-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,23.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 33 | +CROP,2006-09-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 34 | +CROP,2006-09-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,11.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 35 | +Léger,2006-06-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 36 | +Léger,2006-06-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 37 | +Léger,2006-06-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,19.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 38 | +Léger,2006-06-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 39 | +Léger,2006-06-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 40 | +Léger,2006-04-30,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,43.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 41 | +Léger,2006-04-30,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 42 | +Léger,2006-04-30,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 43 | +Léger,2006-04-30,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 44 | +Léger,2006-04-30,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 45 | +Léger,2006-03-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,49.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 46 | +Léger,2006-03-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 47 | +Léger,2006-03-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,13.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 48 | +Léger,2006-03-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 49 | +Léger,2006-03-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 50 | +CROP,2006-02-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,48.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 51 | +CROP,2006-02-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 52 | +CROP,2006-02-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 53 | +CROP,2006-02-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 54 | +CROP,2006-01-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,57.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 55 | +CROP,2006-01-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 56 | +CROP,2006-01-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 57 | +CROP,2006-01-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 58 | +Léger,2005-11-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,53.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 59 | +Léger,2005-11-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 60 | +Léger,2005-11-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 61 | +Léger,2005-11-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 62 | +CROP,2005-10-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,58.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 63 | +CROP,2005-10-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 64 | +CROP,2005-10-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 65 | +CROP,2005-10-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 66 | +Léger,2005-09-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,55.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 67 | +Léger,2005-09-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 68 | +Léger,2005-09-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 69 | +Léger,2005-09-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 70 | +CROP,2005-06-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,48.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 71 | +CROP,2005-06-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 72 | +CROP,2005-06-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 73 | +CROP,2005-06-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,3.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 74 | +CROP,2005-05-30,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,55.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 75 | +CROP,2005-05-30,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 76 | +CROP,2005-05-30,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,23.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 77 | +CROP,2005-05-30,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 78 | +Léger,2005-05-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,53.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 79 | +Léger,2005-05-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 80 | +Léger,2005-05-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 81 | +Léger,2005-05-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 82 | +CROP,2005-04-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,46.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 83 | +CROP,2005-04-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,15.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 84 | +CROP,2005-04-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,23.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 85 | +CROP,2005-04-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 86 | +Léger,2005-04-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,53.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 87 | +Léger,2005-04-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,13.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 88 | +Léger,2005-04-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 89 | +Léger,2005-04-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 90 | +Léger,2004-12-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 91 | +Léger,2004-12-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 92 | +Léger,2004-12-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 93 | +Léger,2004-12-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,11.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 94 | +CROP,2004-11-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,37.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 95 | +CROP,2004-11-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,23.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 96 | +CROP,2004-11-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 97 | +CROP,2004-11-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,11.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 98 | +Léger,2004-11-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,48.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 99 | +Léger,2004-11-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 100 | +Léger,2004-11-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,21.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 101 | +Léger,2004-11-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 102 | +CROP,2004-10-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 103 | +CROP,2004-10-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,21.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 104 | +CROP,2004-10-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 105 | +CROP,2004-10-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 106 | +CROP,2004-08-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,45.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 107 | +CROP,2004-08-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,21.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 108 | +CROP,2004-08-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 109 | +CROP,2004-08-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 110 | +Léger,2004-04-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,50.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 111 | +Léger,2004-04-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 112 | +Léger,2004-04-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 113 | +Léger,2004-04-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 114 | +CROP,2004-03-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,45.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 115 | +CROP,2004-03-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 116 | +CROP,2004-03-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 117 | +CROP,2004-03-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 118 | +CROP,2004-02-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 119 | +CROP,2004-02-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,21.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 120 | +CROP,2004-02-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 121 | +CROP,2004-02-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 122 | +Léger,2004-01-18,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,49.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 123 | +Léger,2004-01-18,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 124 | +Léger,2004-01-18,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,19.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 125 | +Léger,2004-01-18,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 126 | +CROP,2003-12-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 127 | +CROP,2003-12-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 128 | +CROP,2003-12-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 129 | +CROP,2003-12-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 130 | +CROP,2003-10-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 131 | +CROP,2003-10-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 132 | +CROP,2003-10-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,15.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 133 | +CROP,2003-10-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 134 | +CROP,2003-09-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 135 | +CROP,2003-09-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 136 | +CROP,2003-09-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,15.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 137 | +CROP,2003-09-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 138 | +Léger,2003-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,43.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 139 | +Léger,2003-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 140 | +Léger,2003-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 141 | +Léger,2003-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,3.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 142 | +Léger,2003-05-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PQ,41.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 143 | +Léger,2003-05-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,37.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 144 | +Léger,2003-05-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
| 145 | +Léger,2003-05-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.355883+00:00 | ||||
added
backend/data/historical/polls_2008.csv
+181 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,181 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +pollster,field_end,sample_size,mode,source_url,party,raw_value,accessed_at | ||||
| 2 | +Angus Reid Strategies,2008-12-05,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,42.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 3 | +Angus Reid Strategies,2008-12-05,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,13.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 4 | +Angus Reid Strategies,2008-12-05,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,36.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 5 | +Angus Reid Strategies,2008-12-05,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 6 | +Angus Reid Strategies,2008-12-05,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 7 | +Léger Marketing,2008-12-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,45.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 8 | +Léger Marketing,2008-12-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,15.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 9 | +Léger Marketing,2008-12-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 10 | +Léger Marketing,2008-12-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 11 | +Léger Marketing,2008-12-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 12 | +CROP,2008-12-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,45.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 13 | +CROP,2008-12-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,15.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 14 | +CROP,2008-12-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 15 | +CROP,2008-12-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 16 | +CROP,2008-12-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 17 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,46.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 18 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,12.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 19 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 20 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 21 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 22 | +CROP,2008-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,45.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 23 | +CROP,2008-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,12.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 24 | +CROP,2008-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 25 | +CROP,2008-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 26 | +CROP,2008-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 27 | +Nanos Research,2008-11-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,44.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 28 | +Nanos Research,2008-11-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,12.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 29 | +Nanos Research,2008-11-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,36.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 30 | +Nanos Research,2008-11-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 31 | +Nanos Research,2008-11-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 32 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,44.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 33 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,15.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 34 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 35 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 36 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 37 | +CROP,2008-11-13,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,42.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 38 | +CROP,2008-11-13,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,15.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 39 | +CROP,2008-11-13,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 40 | +CROP,2008-11-13,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 41 | +CROP,2008-11-13,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 42 | +Environics,2008-11-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,45.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 43 | +Environics,2008-11-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 44 | +Environics,2008-11-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 45 | +Environics,2008-11-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 46 | +Environics,2008-11-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 47 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,41.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 48 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 49 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,35.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 50 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 51 | +Léger Marketing,2008-11-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 52 | +Léger Marketing,2008-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,42.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 53 | +Léger Marketing,2008-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 54 | +Léger Marketing,2008-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 55 | +Léger Marketing,2008-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 56 | +Léger Marketing,2008-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 57 | +CROP,2008-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 58 | +CROP,2008-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 59 | +CROP,2008-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 60 | +CROP,2008-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 61 | +CROP,2008-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 62 | +CROP,2008-09-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,41.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 63 | +CROP,2008-09-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 64 | +CROP,2008-09-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 65 | +CROP,2008-09-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 66 | +CROP,2008-09-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 67 | +CROP,2008-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,42.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 68 | +CROP,2008-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 69 | +CROP,2008-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 70 | +CROP,2008-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,3.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 71 | +CROP,2008-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 72 | +CROP,2008-06-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,36.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 73 | +CROP,2008-06-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 74 | +CROP,2008-06-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 75 | +CROP,2008-06-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 76 | +CROP,2008-06-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 77 | +Léger Marketing,2008-06-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,42.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 78 | +Léger Marketing,2008-06-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 79 | +Léger Marketing,2008-06-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 80 | +Léger Marketing,2008-06-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 81 | +Léger Marketing,2008-06-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 82 | +CROP,2008-05-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,41.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 83 | +CROP,2008-05-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 84 | +CROP,2008-05-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 85 | +CROP,2008-05-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 86 | +CROP,2008-05-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 87 | +CROP,2008-04-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 88 | +CROP,2008-04-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 89 | +CROP,2008-04-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 90 | +CROP,2008-04-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 91 | +CROP,2008-04-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 92 | +Léger Marketing,2008-04-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,37.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 93 | +Léger Marketing,2008-04-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 94 | +Léger Marketing,2008-04-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 95 | +Léger Marketing,2008-04-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 96 | +Léger Marketing,2008-04-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 97 | +CROP,2008-03-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 98 | +CROP,2008-03-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 99 | +CROP,2008-03-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 100 | +CROP,2008-03-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 101 | +CROP,2008-03-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 102 | +CROP,2008-02-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,35.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 103 | +CROP,2008-02-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,21.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 104 | +CROP,2008-02-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 105 | +CROP,2008-02-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 106 | +CROP,2008-02-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 107 | +CROP,2008-01-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 108 | +CROP,2008-01-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 109 | +CROP,2008-01-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,35.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 110 | +CROP,2008-01-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 111 | +CROP,2008-01-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 112 | +Léger Marketing,2008-01-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 113 | +Léger Marketing,2008-01-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 114 | +Léger Marketing,2008-01-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 115 | +Léger Marketing,2008-01-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 116 | +Léger Marketing,2008-01-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 117 | +CROP,2007-12-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 118 | +CROP,2007-12-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 119 | +CROP,2007-12-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 120 | +CROP,2007-12-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,3.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 121 | +CROP,2007-12-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 122 | +Léger Marketing,2007-11-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 123 | +Léger Marketing,2007-11-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 124 | +Léger Marketing,2007-11-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 125 | +Léger Marketing,2007-11-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 126 | +Léger Marketing,2007-11-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 127 | +CROP,2007-10-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 128 | +CROP,2007-10-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 129 | +CROP,2007-10-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 130 | +CROP,2007-10-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 131 | +CROP,2007-10-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 132 | +CROP,2007-09-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 133 | +CROP,2007-09-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 134 | +CROP,2007-09-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 135 | +CROP,2007-09-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 136 | +CROP,2007-09-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 137 | +Léger Marketing,2007-09-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 138 | +Léger Marketing,2007-09-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 139 | +Léger Marketing,2007-09-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 140 | +Léger Marketing,2007-09-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 141 | +Léger Marketing,2007-09-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 142 | +CROP,2007-08-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 143 | +CROP,2007-08-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 144 | +CROP,2007-08-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 145 | +CROP,2007-08-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 146 | +CROP,2007-08-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 147 | +CROP,2007-06-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 148 | +CROP,2007-06-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 149 | +CROP,2007-06-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 150 | +CROP,2007-06-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 151 | +CROP,2007-06-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 152 | +Léger Marketing,2007-06-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 153 | +Léger Marketing,2007-06-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 154 | +Léger Marketing,2007-06-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 155 | +Léger Marketing,2007-06-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 156 | +Léger Marketing,2007-06-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 157 | +CROP,2007-06-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 158 | +CROP,2007-06-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 159 | +CROP,2007-06-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 160 | +CROP,2007-06-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 161 | +CROP,2007-06-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 162 | +CROP,2007-05-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 163 | +CROP,2007-05-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 164 | +CROP,2007-05-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 165 | +CROP,2007-05-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 166 | +CROP,2007-05-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 167 | +Léger Marketing,2007-05-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 168 | +Léger Marketing,2007-05-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 169 | +Léger Marketing,2007-05-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 170 | +Léger Marketing,2007-05-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 171 | +Léger Marketing,2007-05-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 172 | +CROP,2007-04-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 173 | +CROP,2007-04-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 174 | +CROP,2007-04-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,23.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 175 | +CROP,2007-04-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 176 | +CROP,2007-04-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 177 | +Léger Marketing,2007-03-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 178 | +Léger Marketing,2007-03-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,ADQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 179 | +Léger Marketing,2007-03-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,PQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 180 | +Léger Marketing,2007-03-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,QS,3.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
| 181 | +Léger Marketing,2007-03-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:09.077153+00:00 | ||||
added
backend/data/historical/polls_2012.csv
+546 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,546 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +pollster,field_end,sample_size,mode,source_url,party,raw_value,accessed_at | ||||
| 2 | +Forum Research,2012-09-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 3 | +Forum Research,2012-09-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,36.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 4 | +Forum Research,2012-09-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 5 | +Forum Research,2012-09-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 6 | +Forum Research,2012-09-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 7 | +EKOS,2012-09-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,23.2,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 8 | +EKOS,2012-09-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,36.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 9 | +EKOS,2012-09-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,24.5,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 10 | +EKOS,2012-09-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,10.7,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 11 | +EKOS,2012-09-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,5.5,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 12 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 13 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 14 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 15 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 16 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 17 | +CROP,2012-08-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 18 | +CROP,2012-08-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 19 | +CROP,2012-08-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 20 | +CROP,2012-08-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 21 | +CROP,2012-08-29,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 22 | +Forum Research,2012-08-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 23 | +Forum Research,2012-08-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 24 | +Forum Research,2012-08-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 25 | +Forum Research,2012-08-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 26 | +Forum Research,2012-08-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 27 | +CROP,2012-08-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 28 | +CROP,2012-08-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 29 | +CROP,2012-08-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 30 | +CROP,2012-08-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 31 | +CROP,2012-08-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 32 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 33 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 34 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 35 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 36 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 37 | +Forum Research,2012-08-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,35.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 38 | +Forum Research,2012-08-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 39 | +Forum Research,2012-08-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 40 | +Forum Research,2012-08-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 41 | +Forum Research,2012-08-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 42 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 43 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 44 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 45 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 46 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 47 | +CROP,2012-08-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 48 | +CROP,2012-08-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 49 | +CROP,2012-08-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 50 | +CROP,2012-08-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 51 | +CROP,2012-08-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 52 | +Forum Research,2012-08-13,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 53 | +Forum Research,2012-08-13,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,35.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 54 | +Forum Research,2012-08-13,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 55 | +Forum Research,2012-08-13,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 56 | +Forum Research,2012-08-13,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 57 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 58 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 59 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 60 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 61 | +Léger Marketing,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 62 | +CROP,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 63 | +CROP,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 64 | +CROP,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,21.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 65 | +CROP,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 66 | +CROP,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 67 | +Forum Research,2012-08-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 68 | +Forum Research,2012-08-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 69 | +Forum Research,2012-08-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 70 | +Forum Research,2012-08-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 71 | +Forum Research,2012-08-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 72 | +Forum Research,2012-08-01,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 73 | +Forum Research,2012-08-01,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 74 | +Forum Research,2012-08-01,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 75 | +Forum Research,2012-08-01,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 76 | +Forum Research,2012-08-01,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 77 | +Léger Marketing,2012-07-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 78 | +Léger Marketing,2012-07-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 79 | +Léger Marketing,2012-07-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,21.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 80 | +Léger Marketing,2012-07-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 81 | +Léger Marketing,2012-07-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 82 | +Léger Marketing,2012-06-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 83 | +Léger Marketing,2012-06-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 84 | +Léger Marketing,2012-06-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,19.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 85 | +Léger Marketing,2012-06-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 86 | +Léger Marketing,2012-06-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 87 | +CROP,2012-05-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 88 | +CROP,2012-05-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 89 | +CROP,2012-05-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 90 | +CROP,2012-05-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 91 | +CROP,2012-05-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 92 | +Léger Marketing,2012-05-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 93 | +Léger Marketing,2012-05-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 94 | +Léger Marketing,2012-05-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,21.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 95 | +Léger Marketing,2012-05-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,10.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 96 | +Léger Marketing,2012-05-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 97 | +Forum Research,2012-05-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 98 | +Forum Research,2012-05-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 99 | +Forum Research,2012-05-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 100 | +Forum Research,2012-05-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,10.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 101 | +Forum Research,2012-05-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 102 | +SEGMA,2012-05-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 103 | +SEGMA,2012-05-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 104 | +SEGMA,2012-05-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,19.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 105 | +SEGMA,2012-05-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,11.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 106 | +SEGMA,2012-05-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 107 | +Forum Research,2012-05-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,35.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 108 | +Forum Research,2012-05-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 109 | +Forum Research,2012-05-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,19.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 110 | +Forum Research,2012-05-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,10.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 111 | +Forum Research,2012-05-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 112 | +CROP,2012-05-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 113 | +CROP,2012-05-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 114 | +CROP,2012-05-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 115 | +CROP,2012-05-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 116 | +CROP,2012-05-03,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 117 | +Léger Marketing,2012-05-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 118 | +Léger Marketing,2012-05-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 119 | +Léger Marketing,2012-05-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 120 | +Léger Marketing,2012-05-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 121 | +Léger Marketing,2012-05-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 122 | +Forum Research,2012-04-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,35.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 123 | +Forum Research,2012-04-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,35.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 124 | +Forum Research,2012-04-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 125 | +Forum Research,2012-04-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 126 | +Forum Research,2012-04-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 127 | +CROP,2012-04-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 128 | +CROP,2012-04-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 129 | +CROP,2012-04-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 130 | +CROP,2012-04-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 131 | +CROP,2012-04-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 132 | +Forum Research,2012-04-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 133 | +Forum Research,2012-04-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 134 | +Forum Research,2012-04-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 135 | +Forum Research,2012-04-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 136 | +Forum Research,2012-04-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 137 | +Léger Marketing,2012-04-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 138 | +Léger Marketing,2012-04-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 139 | +Léger Marketing,2012-04-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 140 | +Léger Marketing,2012-04-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 141 | +Léger Marketing,2012-04-04,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 142 | +Forum Research,2012-03-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 143 | +Forum Research,2012-03-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,41.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 144 | +Forum Research,2012-03-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,19.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 145 | +Forum Research,2012-03-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 146 | +Forum Research,2012-03-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 147 | +CROP,2012-03-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 148 | +CROP,2012-03-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 149 | +CROP,2012-03-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 150 | +CROP,2012-03-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 151 | +CROP,2012-03-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 152 | +Léger Marketing,2012-03-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 153 | +Léger Marketing,2012-03-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 154 | +Léger Marketing,2012-03-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 155 | +Léger Marketing,2012-03-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 156 | +Léger Marketing,2012-03-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,3.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 157 | +Forum Research,2012-02-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 158 | +Forum Research,2012-02-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 159 | +Forum Research,2012-02-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,19.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 160 | +Forum Research,2012-02-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 161 | +Forum Research,2012-02-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,0.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 162 | +CROP,2012-02-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 163 | +CROP,2012-02-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 164 | +CROP,2012-02-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 165 | +CROP,2012-02-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 166 | +CROP,2012-02-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 167 | +Léger Marketing,2012-02-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 168 | +Léger Marketing,2012-02-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 169 | +Léger Marketing,2012-02-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 170 | +Léger Marketing,2012-02-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 171 | +Léger Marketing,2012-02-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 172 | +Léger Marketing,2012-01-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 173 | +Léger Marketing,2012-01-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 174 | +Léger Marketing,2012-01-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 175 | +Léger Marketing,2012-01-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 176 | +Léger Marketing,2012-01-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 177 | +CROP,2012-01-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 178 | +CROP,2012-01-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,21.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 179 | +CROP,2012-01-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 180 | +CROP,2012-01-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,11.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 181 | +CROP,2012-01-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 182 | +Léger Marketing,2012-01-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 183 | +Léger Marketing,2012-01-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 184 | +Léger Marketing,2012-01-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 185 | +Léger Marketing,2012-01-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 186 | +Léger Marketing,2012-01-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,3.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 187 | +CROP,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 188 | +CROP,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 189 | +CROP,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 190 | +CROP,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 191 | +CROP,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 192 | +Léger Marketing,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 193 | +Léger Marketing,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 194 | +Léger Marketing,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,37.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 195 | +Léger Marketing,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 196 | +Léger Marketing,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,3.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 197 | +CROP,2011-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 198 | +CROP,2011-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,21.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 199 | +CROP,2011-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,42.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 200 | +CROP,2011-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 201 | +CROP,2011-11-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 202 | +Léger Marketing,2011-11-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 203 | +Léger Marketing,2011-11-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,21.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 204 | +Léger Marketing,2011-11-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,35.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 205 | +Léger Marketing,2011-11-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 206 | +Léger Marketing,2011-11-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,3.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 207 | +Léger Marketing,2011-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 208 | +Léger Marketing,2011-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 209 | +Léger Marketing,2011-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,35.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 210 | +Léger Marketing,2011-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 211 | +Léger Marketing,2011-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 212 | +CROP,2011-10-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 213 | +CROP,2011-10-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 214 | +CROP,2011-10-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,13.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 215 | +CROP,2011-10-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 216 | +Léger Marketing,2011-10-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 217 | +Léger Marketing,2011-10-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 218 | +Léger Marketing,2011-10-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,36.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 219 | +Léger Marketing,2011-10-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 220 | +Léger Marketing,2011-10-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,3.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 221 | +CROP,2011-09-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 222 | +CROP,2011-09-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 223 | +CROP,2011-09-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,11.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 224 | +CROP,2011-09-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 225 | +Léger Marketing,2011-09-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 226 | +Léger Marketing,2011-09-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 227 | +Léger Marketing,2011-09-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 228 | +Léger Marketing,2011-09-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 229 | +Léger Marketing,2011-09-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 230 | +CROP,2011-08-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 231 | +CROP,2011-08-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 232 | +CROP,2011-08-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,11.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 233 | +CROP,2011-08-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 234 | +Léger Marketing,2011-08-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 235 | +Léger Marketing,2011-08-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 236 | +Léger Marketing,2011-08-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,12.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 237 | +Léger Marketing,2011-08-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,11.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 238 | +CROP,2011-06-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,35.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 239 | +CROP,2011-06-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 240 | +CROP,2011-06-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 241 | +CROP,2011-06-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 242 | +Léger Marketing,2011-06-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 243 | +Léger Marketing,2011-06-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 244 | +Léger Marketing,2011-06-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,11.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 245 | +Léger Marketing,2011-06-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 246 | +CROP,2011-06-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 247 | +CROP,2011-06-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 248 | +CROP,2011-06-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 249 | +CROP,2011-06-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 250 | +CROP,2011-05-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,23.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 251 | +CROP,2011-05-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 252 | +CROP,2011-05-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,12.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 253 | +CROP,2011-05-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 254 | +Léger Marketing,2011-05-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 255 | +Léger Marketing,2011-05-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 256 | +Léger Marketing,2011-05-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 257 | +Léger Marketing,2011-05-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 258 | +Léger Marketing,2011-04-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 259 | +Léger Marketing,2011-04-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 260 | +Léger Marketing,2011-04-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 261 | +Léger Marketing,2011-04-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,3.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 262 | +Léger Marketing,2011-03-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 263 | +Léger Marketing,2011-03-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,37.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 264 | +Léger Marketing,2011-03-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,11.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 265 | +Léger Marketing,2011-03-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 266 | +Léger Marketing,2011-02-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 267 | +Léger Marketing,2011-02-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 268 | +Léger Marketing,2011-02-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 269 | +Léger Marketing,2011-02-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 270 | +CROP,2010-09-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 271 | +CROP,2010-09-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 272 | +CROP,2010-09-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 273 | +CROP,2010-09-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 274 | +Angus Reid Public Opinion,2010-09-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 275 | +Angus Reid Public Opinion,2010-09-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 276 | +Angus Reid Public Opinion,2010-09-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,10.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 277 | +Angus Reid Public Opinion,2010-09-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 278 | +Léger Marketing,2010-09-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 279 | +Léger Marketing,2010-09-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 280 | +Léger Marketing,2010-09-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,11.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 281 | +Léger Marketing,2010-09-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 282 | +Léger Marketing,2010-08-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 283 | +Léger Marketing,2010-08-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,41.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 284 | +Léger Marketing,2010-08-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 285 | +Léger Marketing,2010-08-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,3.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 286 | +Angus Reid Public Opinion,2010-08-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 287 | +Angus Reid Public Opinion,2010-08-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 288 | +Angus Reid Public Opinion,2010-08-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 289 | +Angus Reid Public Opinion,2010-08-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,3.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 290 | +Léger Marketing,2010-06-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 291 | +Léger Marketing,2010-06-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,41.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 292 | +Léger Marketing,2010-06-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 293 | +Léger Marketing,2010-06-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 294 | +Léger Marketing,2010-05-06,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 295 | +Léger Marketing,2010-05-06,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 296 | +Léger Marketing,2010-05-06,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 297 | +Léger Marketing,2010-05-06,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 298 | +Angus Reid Public Opinion,2010-04-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,23.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 299 | +Angus Reid Public Opinion,2010-04-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,41.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 300 | +Angus Reid Public Opinion,2010-04-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 301 | +Angus Reid Public Opinion,2010-04-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 302 | +Léger Marketing,2010-04-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 303 | +Léger Marketing,2010-04-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 304 | +Léger Marketing,2010-04-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 305 | +Léger Marketing,2010-04-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 306 | +Léger Marketing,2010-03-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 307 | +Léger Marketing,2010-03-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 308 | +Léger Marketing,2010-03-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,10.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 309 | +Léger Marketing,2010-03-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 310 | +Léger Marketing,2010-02-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,37.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 311 | +Léger Marketing,2010-02-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 312 | +Léger Marketing,2010-02-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 313 | +Léger Marketing,2010-02-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 314 | +CROP,2010-01-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 315 | +CROP,2010-01-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 316 | +CROP,2010-01-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 317 | +CROP,2010-01-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 318 | +Léger Marketing,2010-01-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 319 | +Léger Marketing,2010-01-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,41.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 320 | +Léger Marketing,2010-01-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 321 | +Léger Marketing,2010-01-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,13.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 322 | +Léger Marketing,2009-11-30,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,37.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 323 | +Léger Marketing,2009-11-30,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,41.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 324 | +Léger Marketing,2009-11-30,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 325 | +Léger Marketing,2009-11-30,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,15.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 326 | +CROP,2009-10-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 327 | +CROP,2009-10-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 328 | +CROP,2009-10-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 329 | +CROP,2009-10-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,15.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 330 | +Léger Marketing,2009-09-09,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,41.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 331 | +Léger Marketing,2009-09-09,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,37.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 332 | +Léger Marketing,2009-09-09,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 333 | +Léger Marketing,2009-09-09,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 334 | +Environics,2009-06-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,45.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 335 | +Environics,2009-06-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 336 | +Environics,2009-06-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 337 | +Environics,2009-06-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,13.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 338 | +Léger Marketing,2009-05-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 339 | +Léger Marketing,2009-05-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 340 | +Léger Marketing,2009-05-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 341 | +Léger Marketing,2009-05-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,1.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 342 | +Environics,2009-04-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 343 | +Environics,2009-04-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,50.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 344 | +Environics,2009-04-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 345 | +Environics,2009-04-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 346 | +Environics,2008-12-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,36.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 347 | +Environics,2008-12-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 348 | +Environics,2008-12-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 349 | +Environics,2008-12-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 350 | +Léger,2012-08-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 351 | +Léger,2012-08-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 352 | +Léger,2012-08-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 353 | +Léger,2012-08-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 354 | +Léger,2012-08-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 355 | +Forum,2012-08-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,35.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 356 | +Forum,2012-08-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 357 | +Forum,2012-08-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 358 | +Forum,2012-08-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 359 | +Forum,2012-08-28,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 360 | +Léger,2012-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 361 | +Léger,2012-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 362 | +Léger,2012-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 363 | +Léger,2012-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 364 | +Léger,2012-08-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 365 | +Léger,2012-08-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 366 | +Léger,2012-08-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,19.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 367 | +Léger,2012-08-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 368 | +Léger,2012-08-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 369 | +Léger,2012-08-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 370 | +Léger,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 371 | +Léger,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 372 | +Léger,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 373 | +Léger,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 374 | +Léger,2012-08-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 375 | +Forum,2012-08-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 376 | +Forum,2012-08-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 377 | +Forum,2012-08-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 378 | +Forum,2012-08-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 379 | +Forum,2012-08-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,2.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 380 | +Forum,2012-08-01,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,43.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 381 | +Forum,2012-08-01,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,32.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 382 | +Forum,2012-08-01,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 383 | +Forum,2012-08-01,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 384 | +Forum,2012-08-01,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,3.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 385 | +Léger,2012-07-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 386 | +Léger,2012-07-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 387 | +Léger,2012-07-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 388 | +Léger,2012-07-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 389 | +Léger,2012-07-31,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 390 | +CROP,2012-07-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,36.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 391 | +CROP,2012-07-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 392 | +CROP,2012-07-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 393 | +CROP,2012-07-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 394 | +Léger,2012-06-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 395 | +Léger,2012-06-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 396 | +Léger,2012-06-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 397 | +Léger,2012-06-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,10.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 398 | +Léger,2012-06-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 399 | +Léger,2012-05-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 400 | +Léger,2012-05-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 401 | +Léger,2012-05-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 402 | +Léger,2012-05-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,10.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 403 | +Léger,2012-05-21,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 404 | +Léger,2012-05-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,37.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 405 | +Léger,2012-05-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 406 | +Léger,2012-05-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 407 | +Léger,2012-05-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 408 | +Léger,2012-05-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 409 | +Forum,2012-04-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 410 | +Forum,2012-04-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 411 | +Forum,2012-04-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 412 | +Forum,2012-04-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 413 | +Forum,2012-04-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 414 | +Léger,2012-03-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 415 | +Léger,2012-03-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 416 | +Léger,2012-03-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,26.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 417 | +Léger,2012-03-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 418 | +Léger,2012-03-07,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 419 | +Léger,2012-01-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 420 | +Léger,2012-01-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 421 | +Léger,2012-01-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,38.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 422 | +Léger,2012-01-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,10.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 423 | +Léger,2012-01-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 424 | +Léger,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 425 | +Léger,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 426 | +Léger,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,42.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 427 | +Léger,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,10.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 428 | +Léger,2011-12-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,4.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 429 | +Léger,2011-11-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 430 | +Léger,2011-11-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 431 | +Léger,2011-11-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 432 | +Léger,2011-11-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,10.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 433 | +Léger,2011-11-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,12.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 434 | +Léger,2011-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,22.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 435 | +Léger,2011-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,15.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 436 | +Léger,2011-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,CAQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 437 | +Léger,2011-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 438 | +Léger,2011-10-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 439 | +Léger,2011-10-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 440 | +Léger,2011-10-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,19.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 441 | +Léger,2011-10-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,11.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 442 | +Léger,2011-10-12,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,44.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 443 | +Léger,2011-09-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 444 | +Léger,2011-09-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 445 | +Léger,2011-09-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,10.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 446 | +Léger,2011-09-15,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,35.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 447 | +Léger,2011-06-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,37.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 448 | +Léger,2011-06-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,21.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 449 | +Léger,2011-06-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,13.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 450 | +Léger,2011-06-08,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 451 | +CROP,2011-04-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,48.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 452 | +CROP,2011-04-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 453 | +CROP,2011-04-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,13.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 454 | +CROP,2011-04-20,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 455 | +Léger,2011-04-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,46.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 456 | +Léger,2011-04-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 457 | +Léger,2011-04-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,11.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 458 | +Léger,2011-04-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,23.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 459 | +Léger,2011-03-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,42.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 460 | +Léger,2011-03-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 461 | +Léger,2011-03-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,13.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 462 | +Léger,2011-03-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 463 | +Léger,2011-02-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,40.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 464 | +Léger,2011-02-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 465 | +Léger,2011-02-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,11.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 466 | +Léger,2011-02-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 467 | +CROP,2010-11-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,45.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 468 | +CROP,2010-11-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 469 | +CROP,2010-11-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 470 | +CROP,2010-11-22,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 471 | +Léger,2010-09-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,48.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 472 | +Léger,2010-09-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,24.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 473 | +Léger,2010-09-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,12.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 474 | +Léger,2010-09-16,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 475 | +Léger,2010-08-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,51.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 476 | +Léger,2010-08-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,21.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 477 | +Léger,2010-08-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,10.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 478 | +Léger,2010-08-19,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,18.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 479 | +Léger,2010-06-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,49.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 480 | +Léger,2010-06-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,23.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 481 | +Léger,2010-06-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 482 | +Léger,2010-06-10,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 483 | +Léger,2010-03-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,45.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 484 | +Léger,2010-03-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,25.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 485 | +Léger,2010-03-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,10.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 486 | +Léger,2010-03-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,19.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 487 | +Léger,2010-02-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,48.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 488 | +Léger,2010-02-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 489 | +Léger,2010-02-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 490 | +Léger,2010-02-11,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 491 | +Léger,2010-01-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,50.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 492 | +Léger,2010-01-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,30.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 493 | +Léger,2010-01-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 494 | +Léger,2010-01-14,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,12.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 495 | +Léger,2009-11-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,47.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 496 | +Léger,2009-11-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 497 | +Léger,2009-11-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 498 | +Léger,2009-11-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 499 | +CROP,2009-10-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,46.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 500 | +CROP,2009-10-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 501 | +CROP,2009-10-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 502 | +CROP,2009-10-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 503 | +CROP,2009-09-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,41.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 504 | +CROP,2009-09-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,37.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 505 | +CROP,2009-09-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 506 | +CROP,2009-09-27,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,15.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 507 | +Léger,2009-09-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,45.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 508 | +Léger,2009-09-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 509 | +Léger,2009-09-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 510 | +Léger,2009-09-02,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 511 | +CROP,2009-08-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 512 | +CROP,2009-08-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,37.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 513 | +CROP,2009-08-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,9.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 514 | +CROP,2009-08-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,15.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 515 | +CROP,2009-06-18,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,43.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 516 | +CROP,2009-06-18,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,33.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 517 | +CROP,2009-06-18,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,7.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 518 | +CROP,2009-06-18,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 519 | +CROP,2009-05-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,45.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 520 | +CROP,2009-05-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,29.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 521 | +CROP,2009-05-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 522 | +CROP,2009-05-24,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 523 | +Léger,2009-05-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,48.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 524 | +Léger,2009-05-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 525 | +Léger,2009-05-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 526 | +Léger,2009-05-17,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,14.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 527 | +CROP,2009-04-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,46.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 528 | +CROP,2009-04-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 529 | +CROP,2009-04-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 530 | +CROP,2009-04-26,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 531 | +CROP,2009-03-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,48.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 532 | +CROP,2009-03-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,27.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 533 | +CROP,2009-03-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 534 | +CROP,2009-03-23,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,17.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 535 | +Léger,2009-03-05,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,48.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 536 | +Léger,2009-03-05,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,31.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 537 | +Léger,2009-03-05,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,6.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 538 | +Léger,2009-03-05,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 539 | +Léger,2009-02-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,50.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 540 | +Léger,2009-02-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,28.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 541 | +Léger,2009-02-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,5.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 542 | +Léger,2009-02-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,16.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 543 | +CROP,2009-01-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PQ,39.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 544 | +CROP,2009-01-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,PLQ,34.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 545 | +CROP,2009-01-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,QS,8.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
| 546 | +CROP,2009-01-25,,unknown,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Quebec_general_election,AUT,20.0,2026-08-30T22:20:08.787474+00:00 | ||||
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