# vol_target_trend / 1

Hypothesis. Volatility is persistent and high volatility is not rewarded with proportionally higher returns, so sizing a trend position inversely to recent realised volatility gives a smoother ride (smaller drawdowns for a similar return) than a fixed-size trend position.

Rule. Same trend signal as ma_trend/1 (72-bar mean above 480-bar mean). When it is on, the weight is (1/N) * min(1, target_vol / realised_vol), with realised_vol the annualised standard deviation of the last 168 hourly log-returns and target_vol = 40 % per year. There is no leverage: the weight is capped at 1/N, so the strategy can only reduce risk, never add to it.

What would refute it. If volatility spikes mostly AFTER the losses, scaling down comes too late and only removes exposure to the rebound. The weight moves a little every hour; without a rebalance threshold this generates many small trades and costs.