spb/sp-wallet

1# vol_target_trend / 123**Hypothesis.** Volatility is persistent and high volatility is not rewarded with proportionally higher returns, so4sizing a trend position inversely to recent realised volatility gives a smoother ride (smaller drawdowns for a5similar return) than a fixed-size trend position.67**Rule.** Same trend signal as `ma_trend/1` (72-bar mean above 480-bar mean). When it is on, the weight is8`(1/N) * min(1, target_vol / realised_vol)`, with `realised_vol` the annualised standard deviation of the last 1689hourly log-returns and `target_vol` = 40 % per year. There is no leverage: the weight is capped at `1/N`, so the10strategy can only reduce risk, never add to it.1112**What would refute it.** If volatility spikes mostly AFTER the losses, scaling down comes too late and only13removes exposure to the rebound. The weight moves a little every hour; without a rebalance threshold this14generates many small trades and costs.15