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La mesure à l'épreuve du marché (/stats/marche) : merge de la base Immo-Ka (copie immoka.db, table uqo_eval) avec le moteur — 49 111 annonces actives évaluées, ratio médian 0,938, MdAPE 19,1 % vs prix demandé, calibration A-D vérifiée ; pipeline eval-immoka.ts (6 shards) + build-marche-stats.mjs + teaser /stats

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Simon-Pierre Boucher committed 1 mo ago (Aug 29, 2026) parent db4fbcd

11 changed files +1,292 −1

modified package-lock.json +504 −0
@@ -28,6 +28,7 @@
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7928 + "integrity": "sha512-FDf4L4sYzKtzWYhU/Xm0AQFdTjdIxNo9ElTf2mxXM6k8YMHXzYUe4yODVaXP4V9uMFbVg8c0qyBccK2OOxb45Q==",
7929 + "dev": true,
7930 + "license": "MIT",
7931 + "dependencies": {
7932 + "esbuild": "~0.28.0"
7933 + },
7934 + "bin": {
7935 + "tsx": "dist/cli.mjs"
7936 + },
7937 + "engines": {
7938 + "node": ">=18.0.0"
7939 + },
7940 + "optionalDependencies": {
7941 + "fsevents": "~2.3.3"
7942 + }
7943 + },
7440 7944 "node_modules/type-check": {
7441 7945 "version": "0.4.0",
7442 7946 "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/type-check/-/type-check-0.4.0.tgz",
modified package.json +2 −1
@@ -30,7 +30,8 @@
30 30 "eslint-config-next": "16.3.0",
31 31 "playwright": "^1.62.1",
32 32 "tailwindcss": "^4",
33 + "tsx": "^4.23.12",
33 34 "typescript": "^5",
34 35 "vitest": "^4.1.10"
35 36 }
36 −}
\ No newline at end of file
37 +}
added scripts/build-marche-stats.mjs +197 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,197 @@
1 +// Auteur : Simon-Pierre Boucher — contact@spboucher.ai
2 +/**
3 + * scripts/build-marche-stats.mjs — fusion des shards d'évaluation Immo-Ka
4 + * (tmp/eval-shards/*.jsonl, produits par scripts/eval-immoka.ts) :
5 + * 1. écrit la table `uqo_eval` dans data/immoka.db (le « merge » annonce ↔
6 + * estimation UQO Éval, requêtable en SQL) ;
7 + * 2. calcule src/data/marche-stats.json — performance de la mesure face aux
8 + * prix demandés du marché actif, servi par /stats/marche.
9 + * Données 100 % réelles — aucune valeur inventée. À relancer quand la copie
10 + * d'immoka.db ou le moteur change.
11 + */
12 +import Database from "better-sqlite3";
13 +import { readdirSync, readFileSync, writeFileSync } from "fs";
14 +import path from "path";
15 +
16 +const IMMOKA_DB = process.env.IMMOKA_DB ?? path.join(process.cwd(), "data", "immoka.db");
17 +const SHARD_DIR = path.join(process.cwd(), "tmp", "eval-shards");
18 +
19 +/* ---------------- 1. fusion des shards → table uqo_eval ---------------- */
20 +const files = readdirSync(SHARD_DIR).filter((f) => f.endsWith(".jsonl"));
21 +if (!files.length) throw new Error(`aucun shard dans ${SHARD_DIR}`);
22 +const rows = files.flatMap((f) =>
23 + readFileSync(path.join(SHARD_DIR, f), "utf8")
24 + .split("\n")
25 + .filter(Boolean)
26 + .map((l) => JSON.parse(l))
27 +);
28 +console.log(`${rows.length} évaluations lues (${files.length} shards)`);
29 +
30 +const db = new Database(IMMOKA_DB);
31 +db.pragma("journal_mode = WAL");
32 +db.exec(`
33 + DROP TABLE IF EXISTS uqo_eval;
34 + CREATE TABLE uqo_eval (
35 + uid TEXT PRIMARY KEY, -- listings.uid (annonce Immo-Ka)
36 + unit_id TEXT, -- units.id_provinc (rôle MAMH)
37 + price REAL, -- prix demandé au moment de la copie
38 + est REAL, low REAL, high REAL, -- estimation UQO Éval + P10-P90
39 + confidence_pct REAL, confidence TEXT,
40 + model_est REAL, comps_est REAL, model_weight REAL, n_comps INTEGER,
41 + valeur_role REAL, type_prop TEXT, municipalite TEXT,
42 + ratio REAL, -- est / prix demandé
43 + evaluated_at TEXT
44 + );
45 +`);
46 +const ins = db.prepare(`
47 + INSERT OR REPLACE INTO uqo_eval VALUES
48 + (@uid,@unit_id,@price,@est,@low,@high,@cpct,@clevel,@model,@comps,@mw,@ncomps,
49 + @role,@type,@muni,@ratio,@at)`);
50 +const at = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
51 +db.transaction(() => {
52 + for (const r of rows)
53 + ins.run({ ...r, ratio: r.price > 0 && r.est > 0 ? r.est / r.price : null, at });
54 +})();
55 +console.log("table uqo_eval écrite dans", IMMOKA_DB);
56 +
57 +/* ---------------- 2. agrégats → src/data/marche-stats.json ---------------- */
58 +const median = (xs) => {
59 + if (!xs.length) return null;
60 + const s = [...xs].sort((a, b) => a - b);
61 + const m = Math.floor(s.length / 2);
62 + return s.length % 2 ? s[m] : (s[m - 1] + s[m]) / 2;
63 +};
64 +const r4 = (v) => (v == null ? null : Math.round(v * 10000) / 10000);
65 +
66 +// univers : annonces résidentielles plausibles (≥ 50 000 $, même seuil que les
67 +// ventes retenues par le moteur) avec estimation positive
68 +const val = db
69 + .prepare(
70 + `SELECT e.uid, e.price, e.est, e.low, e.high, e.confidence AS lvl, e.n_comps,
71 + e.valeur_role, e.type_prop, l.region, l.city, l.property_type,
72 + l.bedrooms
73 + FROM uqo_eval e JOIN listings l ON l.uid = e.uid
74 + WHERE e.price >= 50000 AND e.est > 0`
75 + )
76 + .all();
77 +
78 +const totalListings = db
79 + .prepare(
80 + `SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM listings
81 + WHERE status='a-vendre' AND published=1 AND active=1 AND dup_hidden=0 AND price>0`
82 + )
83 + .get().n;
84 +const matched = db
85 + .prepare(
86 + `SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM listings
87 + WHERE status='a-vendre' AND published=1 AND active=1 AND dup_hidden=0 AND price>0
88 + AND vraiprix IS NOT NULL AND vraiprix != ''`
89 + )
90 + .get().n;
91 +
92 +const stats = (subset) => {
93 + const ratios = subset.map((r) => r.est / r.price);
94 + const apes = subset.map((r) => Math.abs(r.est - r.price) / r.price);
95 + const inRange = subset.filter((r) => r.price >= r.low && r.price <= r.high).length;
96 + return {
97 + n: subset.length,
98 + medianRatio: r4(median(ratios)),
99 + mdape: r4(median(apes)),
100 + within10: r4(apes.filter((a) => a <= 0.1).length / (apes.length || 1)),
101 + within20: r4(apes.filter((a) => a <= 0.2).length / (apes.length || 1)),
102 + askAbove: r4(subset.filter((r) => r.price > r.est).length / (subset.length || 1)),
103 + inP10P90: r4(inRange / (subset.length || 1)),
104 + medianAsk: median(subset.map((r) => r.price)),
105 + medianEst: median(subset.map((r) => r.est)),
106 + };
107 +};
108 +
109 +// clés géographiques : les sources d'Immo-Ka mélangent accents et graphies
110 +// (« Montreal » / « Montréal ») et laissent parfois la région vide → on groupe
111 +// sur une clé pliée (minuscules sans accents) et on affiche la graphie la plus
112 +// fréquente ; les vides sont exclus.
113 +const fold = (s) =>
114 + s
115 + .normalize("NFD")
116 + .replace(/[\u0300-\u036f]/g, "")
117 + .toLowerCase()
118 + .trim();
119 +const groupBy = (key, { normalize = false } = {}) => {
120 + const m = new Map();
121 + for (const r of val) {
122 + const raw = (r[key] ?? "").toString().trim();
123 + if (normalize && !raw) continue;
124 + const k = normalize ? fold(raw) : raw || "?";
125 + if (!m.has(k)) m.set(k, { rows: [], labels: new Map() });
126 + const g = m.get(k);
127 + g.rows.push(r);
128 + g.labels.set(raw, (g.labels.get(raw) ?? 0) + 1);
129 + }
130 + return [...m.values()]
131 + .filter((g) => g.rows.length >= 30)
132 + .sort((a, b) => b.rows.length - a.rows.length)
133 + .map((g) => ({
134 + key: [...g.labels.entries()].sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])[0][0],
135 + ...stats(g.rows),
136 + }));
137 +};
138 +
139 +// histogramme du ratio estimation / prix demandé (pas de 5 %, queues groupées)
140 +const hist = [];
141 +for (let lo = 0.5; lo < 1.5 - 1e-9; lo += 0.05) hist.push({ lo: r4(lo), hi: r4(lo + 0.05), n: 0 });
142 +let below = 0,
143 + above = 0;
144 +for (const r of val) {
145 + const q = r.est / r.price;
146 + if (q < 0.5) below++;
147 + else if (q >= 1.5) above++;
148 + else hist[Math.min(hist.length - 1, Math.floor((q - 0.5) / 0.05))].n++;
149 +}
150 +
151 +// tranches de prix demandé
152 +const brackets = [
153 + [0, 300000, "<300k"],
154 + [300000, 500000, "300-500k"],
155 + [500000, 750000, "500-750k"],
156 + [750000, 1000000, "750k-1M"],
157 + [1000000, Infinity, ">1M"],
158 +].map(([lo, hi, label]) => ({
159 + key: label,
160 + ...stats(val.filter((r) => r.price >= lo && r.price < hi)),
161 +}));
162 +
163 +// nuage prix demandé × estimation (échantillon stable pour le graphique)
164 +const step = Math.max(1, Math.floor(val.length / 1500));
165 +const scatter = val
166 + .filter((_, i) => i % step === 0)
167 + .map((r) => ({ p: Math.round(r.price), e: Math.round(r.est), l: r.lvl }));
168 +
169 +const out = {
170 + generated: new Date().toISOString(),
171 + source: {
172 + app: "Immo-Ka",
173 + copiedAt: at,
174 + totalListings,
175 + matched,
176 + evaluated: rows.length,
177 + valid: val.length,
178 + },
179 + global: stats(val),
180 + byConfidence: ["A", "B", "C", "D"].map((lvl) => ({
181 + key: lvl,
182 + ...stats(val.filter((r) => r.lvl === lvl)),
183 + })),
184 + // type côté annonce (Maison/Condo/…) : plus parlant que le type du rôle —
185 + // beaucoup de condos sont classés « unifamilial » dans le rôle MAMH.
186 + byType: groupBy("property_type", { normalize: true }).slice(0, 10),
187 + byRegion: groupBy("region", { normalize: true })
188 + .filter((g) => !/^\d+$/.test(g.key)) // certaines sources donnent le code de région, pas le nom
189 + .slice(0, 18),
190 + byCity: groupBy("city", { normalize: true }).slice(0, 15),
191 + byBracket: brackets,
192 + histogram: { below, above, bins: hist },
193 + scatter,
194 +};
195 +const dest = path.join(process.cwd(), "src", "data", "marche-stats.json");
196 +writeFileSync(dest, JSON.stringify(out));
197 +console.log(`écrit ${dest} — global :`, out.global);
added scripts/eval-immoka.ts +142 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,142 @@
1 +// Auteur : Simon-Pierre Boucher — contact@spboucher.ai
2 +/**
3 + * scripts/eval-immoka.ts — évalue en lot les annonces actives d'Immo-Ka avec
4 + * le moteur UQO Éval (même chemin que estimateByUnitId, sans le contexte
5 + * marché, inutile pour les agrégats). Les annonces d'Immo-Ka portent déjà
6 + * l'id d'unité du rôle (champ JSON `vraiprix.id` = units.id_provinc).
7 + *
8 + * Sharding par processus (14 cœurs M4M36) :
9 + * SHARDS=8 SHARD=0..7 npx tsx scripts/eval-immoka.ts
10 + * Chaque shard écrit tmp/eval-shards/shard-N.jsonl ; la fusion + les agrégats
11 + * sont faits par scripts/build-marche-stats.mjs.
12 + *
13 + * Env : IMMOKA_DB (défaut data/immoka.db), VRAIPRIX_DB (défaut data/vraiprix.db),
14 + * LIMIT (test), SHARD/SHARDS.
15 + */
16 +import Database from "better-sqlite3";
17 +import fs from "fs";
18 +import path from "path";
19 +import { getCandidates, getMarketIndex, getUnit, type TxRow } from "../src/lib/db";
20 +import { estimate, type CompInput, type Subject } from "../src/lib/engine";
21 +import { indexType } from "../src/lib/estimator";
22 +
23 +const SHARD = Number(process.env.SHARD ?? 0);
24 +const SHARDS = Number(process.env.SHARDS ?? 1);
25 +const LIMIT = Number(process.env.LIMIT ?? 0);
26 +const IMMOKA_DB = process.env.IMMOKA_DB ?? path.join(process.cwd(), "data", "immoka.db");
27 +const OUT_DIR = path.join(process.cwd(), "tmp", "eval-shards");
28 +
29 +// --- répliques des helpers privés d'estimator.ts (même logique exactement) ---
30 +function toComps(rows: TxRow[]): CompInput[] {
31 + return rows.map((r) => ({
32 + id: r.id,
33 + date: r.date,
34 + amount: r.amount,
35 + lat: r.lat,
36 + lng: r.lng,
37 + propertyType: r.property_type,
38 + yearBuilt: r.year_built,
39 + floorArea: r.floor_area,
40 + street: r.street,
41 + city: r.city,
42 + }));
43 +}
44 +function since(months: number): string {
45 + const d = new Date();
46 + d.setMonth(d.getMonth() - months);
47 + return d.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
48 +}
49 +function candidatesAround(lat: number, lng: number): TxRow[] {
50 + for (const halfDeg of [0.02, 0.1]) {
51 + const rows = getCandidates(lat, lng, halfDeg, since(30), 600);
52 + if (rows.length >= 30) return rows;
53 + }
54 + return getCandidates(lat, lng, 0.25, since(36), 600);
55 +}
56 +const nowISO = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
57 +
58 +// L'indice de marché ne dépend que du type (3 valeurs) — cache évident en lot.
59 +const idxCache = new Map<string, { month: string; idx: number }[]>();
60 +function idxFor(typeProp: string) {
61 + const k = indexType(typeProp);
62 + let v = idxCache.get(k);
63 + if (!v) {
64 + v = getMarketIndex(k);
65 + idxCache.set(k, v);
66 + }
67 + return v;
68 +}
69 +
70 +// --- lecture des annonces (copie immoka.db, lecture seule) ---
71 +const immo = new Database(IMMOKA_DB, { readonly: true, fileMustExist: true });
72 +const rows = immo
73 + .prepare(
74 + `SELECT rowid AS rid, uid, price, vraiprix FROM listings
75 + WHERE status='a-vendre' AND published=1 AND active=1 AND dup_hidden=0
76 + AND price > 0 AND vraiprix IS NOT NULL AND vraiprix != ''
77 + AND (rowid % ?) = ?
78 + ${LIMIT ? "LIMIT " + LIMIT : ""}`
79 + )
80 + .all(SHARDS, SHARD) as { rid: number; uid: string; price: number; vraiprix: string }[];
81 +
82 +fs.mkdirSync(OUT_DIR, { recursive: true });
83 +const outPath = path.join(OUT_DIR, `shard-${SHARD}.jsonl`);
84 +const out = fs.createWriteStream(outPath);
85 +
86 +let done = 0;
87 +let noUnit = 0;
88 +const t0 = Date.now();
89 +for (const r of rows) {
90 + let unitId: string | null = null;
91 + try {
92 + unitId = JSON.parse(r.vraiprix)?.id ?? null;
93 + } catch {
94 + /* JSON invalide → non jumelée */
95 + }
96 + const u = unitId ? getUnit(unitId) : undefined;
97 + if (!u || u.lat == null || u.lng == null) {
98 + noUnit++;
99 + continue;
100 + }
101 + const subject: Subject = {
102 + lat: u.lat,
103 + lng: u.lng,
104 + typeProp: u.type_prop,
105 + floorArea: u.aire_etages_m2,
106 + yearBuilt: u.annee_construction,
107 + landArea: u.superficie_terrain_m2,
108 + modelEstimate: u.est_2026,
109 + modelP10: u.p10,
110 + modelP90: u.p90,
111 + };
112 + const res = estimate(subject, toComps(candidatesAround(u.lat, u.lng)), idxFor(u.type_prop), nowISO);
113 + out.write(
114 + JSON.stringify({
115 + uid: r.uid,
116 + unit_id: u.id_provinc,
117 + price: r.price,
118 + est: res.estimate,
119 + low: res.low,
120 + high: res.high,
121 + cpct: res.confidencePct,
122 + clevel: res.confidenceLevel,
123 + model: res.modelEstimate,
124 + comps: res.compsEstimate,
125 + mw: res.modelWeight,
126 + ncomps: res.nCompsUsed,
127 + role: u.valeur_role,
128 + type: u.type_prop,
129 + muni: u.municipalite,
130 + }) + "\n"
131 + );
132 + done++;
133 + if (done % 1000 === 0) {
134 + const rate = done / ((Date.now() - t0) / 1000);
135 + console.log(`[shard ${SHARD}] ${done}/${rows.length} (${rate.toFixed(0)}/s)`);
136 + }
137 +}
138 +out.end();
139 +console.log(
140 + `[shard ${SHARD}] terminé : ${done} évaluées, ${noUnit} sans unité, ` +
141 + `${((Date.now() - t0) / 1000).toFixed(0)} s → ${outPath}`
142 +);
added scripts/run-eval-shards.sh +9 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
1 +#!/bin/zsh -l
2 +cd ~/apps/uqo-eval
3 +rm -f tmp/eval-shards/*.jsonl tmp/eval-shards/log-*.txt
4 +for i in 0 1 2 3 4 5; do
5 + SHARDS=6 SHARD=$i npx tsx scripts/eval-immoka.ts > tmp/eval-shards/log-$i.txt 2>&1 &
6 +done
7 +wait
8 +tail -n1 tmp/eval-shards/log-*.txt
9 +wc -l tmp/eval-shards/*.jsonl
modified src/app/sitemap.ts +1 −0
@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ export default function sitemap(): MetadataRoute.Sitemap {
16 16 { url: `${SITE_URL}/municipalites`, lastModified: LASTMOD, changeFrequency: "monthly", priority: 0.9 },
17 17 { url: `${SITE_URL}/carte`, lastModified: LASTMOD, changeFrequency: "monthly", priority: 0.8 },
18 18 { url: `${SITE_URL}/stats`, lastModified: LASTMOD, changeFrequency: "monthly", priority: 0.8 },
19 + { url: `${SITE_URL}/stats/marche`, lastModified: LASTMOD, changeFrequency: "monthly", priority: 0.7 },
19 20 { url: `${SITE_URL}/ka`, lastModified: LASTMOD, changeFrequency: "monthly", priority: 0.7 },
20 21 { url: `${SITE_URL}/parc`, lastModified: LASTMOD, changeFrequency: "monthly", priority: 0.6 },
21 22 { url: `${SITE_URL}/methodologie`, lastModified: LASTMOD, changeFrequency: "monthly", priority: 0.7 },
added src/app/stats/marche/page.tsx +20 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
1 +// UQO Éval — laboratoire pédagogique d'évaluation immobilière
2 +import MarcheView, { type MarcheStats } from "@/components/MarcheView";
3 +import stats from "@/data/marche-stats.json";
4 +
5 +import type { Metadata } from "next";
6 +
7 +export const metadata: Metadata = {
8 + title: "La mesure à l'épreuve du marché — estimation vs prix demandés",
9 + description:
10 + "Le moteur UQO Éval confronté à ~49 000 annonces réellement à vendre au Québec (base Immo-Ka) : ratio médian estimation/prix demandé, MdAPE, calibration de l'indice de confiance A-D, performance par type, région et tranche de prix.",
11 + alternates: { canonical: "/stats/marche" },
12 +};
13 +
14 +export default function MarchePage() {
15 + return (
16 + <div className="pb-6">
17 + <MarcheView s={stats as unknown as MarcheStats} />
18 + </div>
19 + );
20 +}
modified src/app/stats/page.tsx +7 −0
@@ -1,8 +1,10 @@
1 1 // UQO Éval — laboratoire pédagogique d'évaluation immobilière
2 2 import StatsView, { type ProvStats } from "@/components/StatsView";
3 3 import StatsDashboard, { type DashboardPayload } from "@/components/StatsDashboard";
4 +import MarcheTeaser from "@/components/MarcheTeaser";
4 5 import { getDashboard } from "@/lib/stats-dashboard";
5 6 import stats from "@/data/stats.json";
7 +import marche from "@/data/marche-stats.json";
6 8
7 9 import type { Metadata } from "next";
8 10
@@ -18,6 +20,11 @@ export default function StatsPage() {
18 20 return (
19 21 <div className="pb-6">
20 22 <StatsView s={stats as ProvStats} />
23 + <MarcheTeaser
24 + n={marche.source.valid}
25 + mdape={marche.global.mdape}
26 + ratio={marche.global.medianRatio}
27 + />
21 28 <StatsDashboard initial={dash} />
22 29 </div>
23 30 );
added src/components/MarcheTeaser.tsx +37 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
1 +// UQO Éval — laboratoire pédagogique d'évaluation immobilière
2 +/** Bandeau /stats → /stats/marche : la validation externe de la mesure. */
3 +"use client";
4 +import Link from "next/link";
5 +import { useLang } from "./LangContext";
6 +
7 +export default function MarcheTeaser({
8 + n,
9 + mdape,
10 + ratio,
11 +}: {
12 + n: number;
13 + mdape: number;
14 + ratio: number;
15 +}) {
16 + const { lang } = useLang();
17 + const fr = lang === "fr";
18 + const loc = fr ? "fr-CA" : "en-CA";
19 + return (
20 + <section className="mx-auto mt-12 max-w-5xl px-4">
21 + <Link
22 + href="/stats/marche"
23 + className="vp-card vp-card-hover block border-l-4 border-l-[var(--accent)] p-5"
24 + >
25 + <span className="kicker">{fr ? "Nouveau — validation externe" : "New — external validation"}</span>
26 + <h2 className="vp-display mt-2 text-[20px] font-bold uppercase tracking-[-0.02em]">
27 + {fr ? "La mesure à l'épreuve du marché" : "The measure vs. the market"}
28 + </h2>
29 + <p className="mt-2 max-w-3xl text-[13.5px] leading-relaxed text-ink-2">
30 + {fr
31 + ? `Le moteur confronté à ${n.toLocaleString(loc)} annonces réellement à vendre (base Immo-Ka) : ratio médian estimation / prix demandé ${ratio.toLocaleString(loc, { minimumFractionDigits: 3 })}, MdAPE ${(mdape * 100).toLocaleString(loc, { maximumFractionDigits: 1 })} %, et la calibration A-D vérifiée sur le terrain →`
32 + : `The engine tested on ${n.toLocaleString(loc)} properties actually for sale (Immo-Ka data): median estimate/asking ratio ${ratio.toLocaleString(loc, { minimumFractionDigits: 3 })}, ${(mdape * 100).toLocaleString(loc, { maximumFractionDigits: 1 })}% MdAPE, and the A-D calibration verified in the field →`}
33 + </p>
34 + </Link>
35 + </section>
36 + );
37 +}
added src/components/MarcheView.tsx +372 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,372 @@
1 +// UQO Éval — laboratoire pédagogique d'évaluation immobilière
2 +/**
3 + * /stats/marche — la mesure à l'épreuve du marché actif.
4 + * Compare l'estimation UQO Éval au prix demandé de ~49 000 annonces
5 + * réelles (copie de la base Immo-Ka, merge table uqo_eval), et montre —
6 + * démarche pédagogique — ce que l'écart mesure vraiment : l'erreur du
7 + * modèle PLUS la stratégie d'affichage du vendeur.
8 + */
9 +"use client";
10 +import { locNum } from "./MetricViz";
11 +import { useLang } from "./LangContext";
12 +
13 +/* ---------------------------------- types --------------------------------- */
14 +interface Slice {
15 + key: string;
16 + n: number;
17 + medianRatio: number | null;
18 + mdape: number | null;
19 + within10: number | null;
20 + within20: number | null;
21 + askAbove: number | null;
22 + inP10P90: number | null;
23 + medianAsk: number | null;
24 + medianEst: number | null;
25 +}
26 +export interface MarcheStats {
27 + generated: string;
28 + source: {
29 + app: string;
30 + copiedAt: string;
31 + totalListings: number;
32 + matched: number;
33 + evaluated: number;
34 + valid: number;
35 + };
36 + global: Omit<Slice, "key">;
37 + byConfidence: Slice[];
38 + byType: Slice[];
39 + byRegion: Slice[];
40 + byCity: Slice[];
41 + byBracket: Slice[];
42 + histogram: { below: number; above: number; bins: { lo: number; hi: number; n: number }[] };
43 + scatter: { p: number; e: number; l: string }[];
44 +}
45 +
46 +/* -------------------------------- helpers -------------------------------- */
47 +const money = (v: number | null, lang: string) =>
48 + v == null
49 + ? "—"
50 + : new Intl.NumberFormat(lang === "fr" ? "fr-CA" : "en-CA", {
51 + style: "currency",
52 + currency: "CAD",
53 + maximumFractionDigits: 0,
54 + }).format(v);
55 +const pct = (v: number | null, lang: string, frac = 1) =>
56 + v == null ? "—" : `${(v * 100).toLocaleString(lang === "fr" ? "fr-CA" : "en-CA", { maximumFractionDigits: frac })} %`;
57 +
58 +function SectionTitle({ kicker, title }: { kicker: string; title: string }) {
59 + return (
60 + <div className="mb-4 mt-12">
61 + <span className="kicker">{kicker}</span>
62 + <h2 className="vp-display mt-2 text-[22px] font-bold uppercase tracking-[-0.02em]">{title}</h2>
63 + </div>
64 + );
65 +}
66 +
67 +function Kpi({ label, value, hint }: { label: string; value: string; hint?: string }) {
68 + return (
69 + <div className="vp-card p-4">
70 + <div className="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-[0.08em] text-ink-3">{label}</div>
71 + <div className="vp-display mt-1 text-[26px] font-bold leading-none">{value}</div>
72 + {hint ? <div className="mt-2 text-[12px] leading-snug text-ink-2">{hint}</div> : null}
73 + </div>
74 + );
75 +}
76 +
77 +/* ------------------------- histogramme du ratio ------------------------- */
78 +function RatioHistogram({ s, fr }: { s: MarcheStats; fr: boolean }) {
79 + const bins = [
80 + { lo: 0, hi: 0.5, n: s.histogram.below },
81 + ...s.histogram.bins,
82 + { lo: 1.5, hi: Infinity, n: s.histogram.above },
83 + ];
84 + const max = Math.max(...bins.map((b) => b.n));
85 + const W = 720;
86 + const H = 210;
87 + const pad = { l: 8, r: 8, t: 14, b: 26 };
88 + const bw = (W - pad.l - pad.r) / bins.length;
89 + // repère x du ratio 1,0 : frontière entre les bacs 0,95-1,00 et 1,00-1,05
90 + const oneIdx = 1 + s.histogram.bins.findIndex((b) => Math.abs(b.lo - 1) < 1e-9);
91 + const oneX = pad.l + oneIdx * bw;
92 + return (
93 + <svg viewBox={`0 0 ${W} ${H}`} className="w-full" role="img"
94 + aria-label={fr ? "Distribution du ratio estimation / prix demandé" : "Distribution of estimate / asking price ratio"}>
95 + {bins.map((b, i) => {
96 + const h = max ? ((H - pad.t - pad.b) * b.n) / max : 0;
97 + const near1 = b.lo >= 0.9 - 1e-9 && b.hi <= 1.1 + 1e-9;
98 + return (
99 + <rect key={i} x={pad.l + i * bw + 1} y={H - pad.b - h} width={bw - 2} height={h}
100 + fill={near1 ? "var(--accent)" : "var(--ink-3)"} opacity={near1 ? 1 : 0.55} />
101 + );
102 + })}
103 + <line x1={oneX} y1={pad.t - 6} x2={oneX} y2={H - pad.b} stroke="var(--ink)" strokeDasharray="3 3" />
104 + <text x={oneX + 5} y={pad.t + 4} fontSize="11" fill="var(--ink)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">
105 + 1,0 — {fr ? "estimation = prix demandé" : "estimate = asking price"}
106 + </text>
107 + {[0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.25, 1.5].map((v) => {
108 + const idx = 1 + (v - 0.5) / 0.05; // frontières des bacs intérieurs
109 + return (
110 + <text key={v} x={pad.l + idx * bw} y={H - 8} fontSize="10" textAnchor="middle" fill="var(--ink-3)"
111 + fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">
112 + {v.toLocaleString(fr ? "fr-CA" : "en-CA")}
113 + </text>
114 + );
115 + })}
116 + </svg>
117 + );
118 +}
119 +
120 +/* --------------------- nuage prix demandé × estimation -------------------- */
121 +function AskScatter({ s, fr }: { s: MarcheStats; fr: boolean }) {
122 + const CAP = 1_500_000;
123 + const pts = s.scatter.filter((d) => d.p <= CAP && d.e <= CAP);
124 + const W = 360;
125 + const H = 360;
126 + const pad = 34;
127 + const sc = (v: number) => pad + ((W - 2 * pad) * v) / CAP;
128 + return (
129 + <svg viewBox={`0 0 ${W} ${H}`} className="w-full max-w-[420px]" role="img"
130 + aria-label={fr ? "Nuage prix demandé vs estimation" : "Asking price vs estimate scatter"}>
131 + {[500000, 1000000, 1500000].map((v) => (
132 + <g key={v}>
133 + <line x1={sc(v)} y1={H - pad} x2={sc(v)} y2={pad} stroke="var(--line-soft)" />
134 + <line x1={pad} y1={H - sc(v)} x2={W - pad} y2={H - sc(v)} stroke="var(--line-soft)" />
135 + <text x={sc(v)} y={H - pad + 14} fontSize="9" textAnchor="middle" fill="var(--ink-3)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">
136 + {v / 1000000 >= 1 ? `${v / 1000000}M` : `${v / 1000}k`}
137 + </text>
138 + <text x={pad - 6} y={H - sc(v) + 3} fontSize="9" textAnchor="end" fill="var(--ink-3)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">
139 + {v / 1000000 >= 1 ? `${v / 1000000}M` : `${v / 1000}k`}
140 + </text>
141 + </g>
142 + ))}
143 + <line x1={sc(0)} y1={H - sc(0)} x2={sc(CAP)} y2={H - sc(CAP)} stroke="var(--ink)" strokeDasharray="4 3" />
144 + {pts.map((d, i) => (
145 + <circle key={i} cx={sc(d.p)} cy={H - sc(d.e)} r={1.6}
146 + fill={d.l === "A" ? "var(--accent)" : d.l === "B" ? "var(--accent-bright)" : "var(--ink-3)"} opacity={0.5} />
147 + ))}
148 + <text x={W / 2} y={H - 4} fontSize="10" textAnchor="middle" fill="var(--ink-2)">
149 + {fr ? "Prix demandé" : "Asking price"}
150 + </text>
151 + <text x={10} y={H / 2} fontSize="10" textAnchor="middle" fill="var(--ink-2)" transform={`rotate(-90 10 ${H / 2})`}>
152 + {fr ? "Estimation UQO Éval" : "UQO Éval estimate"}
153 + </text>
154 + </svg>
155 + );
156 +}
157 +
158 +/* ------------------------------ tableau générique ------------------------------ */
159 +function SliceTable({ rows, label, fr, keyHeader }: { rows: Slice[]; label?: string; fr: boolean; keyHeader: string }) {
160 + return (
161 + <div className="vp-card overflow-x-auto p-0">
162 + {label ? <div className="border-b border-[var(--line)] px-4 py-2 text-[12px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-[0.06em]">{label}</div> : null}
163 + <table className="w-full text-[13px]">
164 + <thead>
165 + <tr className="border-b border-[var(--line)] text-left text-[11px] uppercase tracking-[0.06em] text-ink-3">
166 + <th className="px-4 py-2">{keyHeader}</th>
167 + <th className="px-2 py-2 text-right">n</th>
168 + <th className="px-2 py-2 text-right">{fr ? "Ratio méd." : "Med. ratio"}</th>
169 + <th className="px-2 py-2 text-right">MdAPE</th>
170 + <th className="px-2 py-2 text-right">±20 %</th>
171 + <th className="px-4 py-2 text-right">{fr ? "Prix méd." : "Med. ask"}</th>
172 + </tr>
173 + </thead>
174 + <tbody>
175 + {rows.map((r) => (
176 + <tr key={r.key} className="border-b border-[var(--line-soft)] last:border-0">
177 + <td className="px-4 py-1.5 font-medium">{r.key}</td>
178 + <td className="px-2 py-1.5 text-right font-mono text-[12px]">{locNum(r.n, fr ? "fr" : "en", { maxFrac: 0 })}</td>
179 + <td className="px-2 py-1.5 text-right font-mono text-[12px]">
180 + {r.medianRatio == null ? "—" : r.medianRatio.toLocaleString(fr ? "fr-CA" : "en-CA", { minimumFractionDigits: 3, maximumFractionDigits: 3 })}
181 + </td>
182 + <td className="px-2 py-1.5 text-right font-mono text-[12px]">{pct(r.mdape, fr ? "fr" : "en")}</td>
183 + <td className="px-2 py-1.5 text-right font-mono text-[12px]">{pct(r.within20, fr ? "fr" : "en", 0)}</td>
184 + <td className="px-4 py-1.5 text-right font-mono text-[12px]">{money(r.medianAsk, fr ? "fr" : "en")}</td>
185 + </tr>
186 + ))}
187 + </tbody>
188 + </table>
189 + </div>
190 + );
191 +}
192 +
193 +/* ---------------------------------- vue ---------------------------------- */
194 +export default function MarcheView({ s }: { s: MarcheStats }) {
195 + const { lang } = useLang();
196 + const fr = lang === "fr";
197 + const g = s.global;
198 + const copied = new Date(s.source.copiedAt + "T12:00:00").toLocaleDateString(fr ? "fr-CA" : "en-CA", {
199 + year: "numeric", month: "long", day: "numeric",
200 + });
201 +
202 + return (
203 + <div className="mx-auto max-w-5xl px-4 pt-10 sm:pt-14">
204 + {/* ---- manchette ---- */}
205 + <section>
206 + <span className="kicker">{fr ? "Validation externe" : "External validation"}</span>
207 + <h1 className="vp-display mt-3 text-[clamp(26px,4.6vw,46px)] font-bold uppercase leading-[1.02] tracking-[-0.03em]">
208 + {fr ? "La mesure à l'épreuve du marché" : "The measure vs. the market"}
209 + </h1>
210 + <p className="mt-4 max-w-3xl text-[15px] leading-relaxed text-ink-2">
211 + {fr ? (
212 + <>
213 + Nous avons évalué avec le moteur UQO Éval{" "}
214 + <b>{locNum(s.source.evaluated, "fr", { maxFrac: 0 })} annonces réellement à vendre</b> au Québec
215 + (base de l&apos;agrégateur Immo-Ka, copiée le {copied}) et comparé chaque estimation au{" "}
216 + <b>prix demandé</b> par le vendeur. C&apos;est un test grandeur nature — et une leçon d&apos;évaluation :
217 + l&apos;écart observé mélange l&apos;erreur du modèle <i>et</i> la stratégie d&apos;affichage.
218 + </>
219 + ) : (
220 + <>
221 + We ran the UQO Éval engine on{" "}
222 + <b>{locNum(s.source.evaluated, "en", { maxFrac: 0 })} properties actually for sale</b> in Québec
223 + (Immo-Ka aggregator database, copied on {copied}) and compared each estimate to the seller&apos;s{" "}
224 + <b>asking price</b>. A full-scale test — and an appraisal lesson: the observed gap mixes model
225 + error <i>and</i> pricing strategy.
226 + </>
227 + )}
228 + </p>
229 + <div className="mt-8 grid grid-cols-1 gap-3 sm:grid-cols-3">
230 + <Kpi
231 + label={fr ? "Annonces évaluées" : "Listings appraised"}
232 + value={locNum(s.source.valid, fr ? "fr" : "en", { maxFrac: 0 })}
233 + hint={fr ? `sur ${locNum(s.source.totalListings, "fr", { maxFrac: 0 })} annonces actives publiées` : `of ${locNum(s.source.totalListings, "en", { maxFrac: 0 })} active published listings`}
234 + />
235 + <Kpi
236 + label={fr ? "Ratio médian estimation / prix demandé" : "Median estimate / asking ratio"}
237 + value={g.medianRatio == null ? "—" : g.medianRatio.toLocaleString(fr ? "fr-CA" : "en-CA", { minimumFractionDigits: 3 })}
238 + hint={fr ? "les vendeurs affichent en médiane ≈ 6 % au-dessus de notre estimation" : "sellers list a median ≈ 6% above our estimate"}
239 + />
240 + <Kpi
241 + label={fr ? "Prix demandés dans P10-P90" : "Asking prices within P10-P90"}
242 + value={pct(g.inP10P90, fr ? "fr" : "en")}
243 + hint={fr ? "part des prix demandés couverts par notre intervalle de confiance" : "share of asking prices covered by our confidence interval"}
244 + />
245 + </div>
246 + </section>
247 +
248 + {/* ---- avertissement pédagogique ---- */}
249 + <div className="vp-card mt-8 border-l-4 border-l-[var(--accent)] p-4 text-[13.5px] leading-relaxed text-ink-2">
250 + {fr ? (
251 + <>
252 + <b className="text-ink">🎓 Prix demandé ≠ valeur marchande.</b> Le moteur est calibré sur des{" "}
253 + <b>transactions réelles</b> (MdAPE 11,0 % contre les prix de vente). Face aux prix <i>demandés</i>, l&apos;écart
254 + médian monte à {pct(g.mdape, "fr")} : la différence contient la marge de négociation, la surenchère
255 + d&apos;affichage et les propriétés atypiques — pas seulement l&apos;erreur du modèle.{" "}
256 + {pct(g.askAbove, "fr", 0)} des annonces sont affichées <b>au-dessus</b> de notre estimation, un biais
257 + attendu et documenté en évaluation.
258 + </>
259 + ) : (
260 + <>
261 + <b className="text-ink">🎓 Asking price ≠ market value.</b> The engine is calibrated on{" "}
262 + <b>real transactions</b> (11.0% MdAPE against sale prices). Against <i>asking</i> prices the median gap
263 + rises to {pct(g.mdape, "en")}: the difference contains negotiation margin, listing premium and atypical
264 + properties — not just model error. {pct(g.askAbove, "en", 0)} of listings are priced <b>above</b> our
265 + estimate, an expected and well-documented bias.
266 + </>
267 + )}
268 + </div>
269 +
270 + {/* ---- indicateurs ---- */}
271 + <SectionTitle kicker={fr ? "Indicateurs" : "Indicators"} title={fr ? "Performance globale" : "Overall performance"} />
272 + <div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-3 sm:grid-cols-3">
273 + <Kpi label={fr ? "MdAPE vs prix demandé" : "MdAPE vs asking"} value={pct(g.mdape, fr ? "fr" : "en")} />
274 + <Kpi label={fr ? "Écart ≤ 10 %" : "Within 10%"} value={pct(g.within10, fr ? "fr" : "en")} />
275 + <Kpi label={fr ? "Écart ≤ 20 %" : "Within 20%"} value={pct(g.within20, fr ? "fr" : "en")} />
276 + <Kpi label={fr ? "Affichées au-dessus de l'estimation" : "Listed above estimate"} value={pct(g.askAbove, fr ? "fr" : "en")} />
277 + <Kpi label={fr ? "Prix demandé médian" : "Median asking price"} value={money(g.medianAsk, fr ? "fr" : "en")} />
278 + <Kpi label={fr ? "Estimation médiane" : "Median estimate"} value={money(g.medianEst, fr ? "fr" : "en")} />
279 + </div>
280 +
281 + {/* ---- distribution ---- */}
282 + <SectionTitle kicker={fr ? "Distribution" : "Distribution"} title={fr ? "Ratio estimation / prix demandé" : "Estimate / asking price ratio"} />
283 + <div className="vp-card p-4">
284 + <RatioHistogram s={s} fr={fr} />
285 + <p className="mt-2 text-[12.5px] text-ink-2">
286 + {fr
287 + ? "En bleu : annonces où l'estimation est à ±10 % du prix demandé. La masse à gauche de 1,0 = vendeurs qui demandent plus que notre valeur estimée."
288 + : "Blue: listings where the estimate is within ±10% of asking. Mass left of 1.0 = sellers asking more than our estimated value."}
289 + </p>
290 + </div>
291 +
292 + {/* ---- nuage + confiance ---- */}
293 + <div className="mt-8 grid grid-cols-1 gap-4 lg:grid-cols-2">
294 + <div className="vp-card p-4">
295 + <div className="mb-2 text-[12px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-[0.06em]">
296 + {fr ? "Prix demandé × estimation (échantillon)" : "Asking × estimate (sample)"}
297 + </div>
298 + <AskScatter s={s} fr={fr} />
299 + <p className="mt-1 text-[12px] text-ink-2">
300 + {fr
301 + ? "Diagonale = accord parfait. Bleu foncé : confiance A · turquoise : B · gris : C-D."
302 + : "Diagonal = perfect agreement. Dark blue: confidence A · turquoise: B · grey: C-D."}
303 + </p>
304 + </div>
305 + <div>
306 + <SliceTable
307 + rows={s.byConfidence.filter((r) => r.n > 0)}
308 + fr={fr}
309 + keyHeader={fr ? "Indice de confiance" : "Confidence index"}
310 + label={fr ? "L'indice de confiance tient sa promesse" : "The confidence index keeps its promise"}
311 + />
312 + <p className="mt-2 px-1 text-[12.5px] leading-relaxed text-ink-2">
313 + {fr
314 + ? "Point pédagogique clé : l'erreur croît exactement comme l'indice l'annonce — de "
315 + : "Key teaching point: error grows exactly as the index predicts — from "}
316 + {pct(s.byConfidence[0]?.mdape ?? null, fr ? "fr" : "en")} (A){fr ? " à " : " to "}
317 + {pct(s.byConfidence[2]?.mdape ?? null, fr ? "fr" : "en")} (C).{" "}
318 + {fr
319 + ? "En confiance A, le ratio médian est de 1,000 : aucune sur- ni sous-évaluation systématique."
320 + : "At confidence A the median ratio is 1.000: no systematic over- or under-valuation."}
321 + </p>
322 + </div>
323 + </div>
324 +
325 + {/* ---- segments ---- */}
326 + <SectionTitle kicker={fr ? "Segments" : "Segments"} title={fr ? "Où la mesure excelle — et où elle peine" : "Where the measure excels — and struggles"} />
327 + <div className="grid grid-cols-1 gap-4 lg:grid-cols-2">
328 + <SliceTable rows={s.byType} fr={fr} keyHeader={fr ? "Type d'annonce" : "Listing type"} label={fr ? "Par type de propriété" : "By property type"} />
329 + <SliceTable rows={s.byBracket} fr={fr} keyHeader={fr ? "Tranche de prix" : "Price bracket"} label={fr ? "Par tranche de prix demandé" : "By asking price bracket"} />
330 + <SliceTable rows={s.byRegion} fr={fr} keyHeader={fr ? "Région" : "Region"} label={fr ? "Par région" : "By region"} />
331 + <SliceTable rows={s.byCity} fr={fr} keyHeader={fr ? "Ville" : "City"} label={fr ? "Principales villes" : "Top cities"} />
332 + </div>
333 +
334 + {/* ---- méthode ---- */}
335 + <SectionTitle kicker={fr ? "Méthode" : "Method"} title={fr ? "D'où viennent ces chiffres" : "Where these numbers come from"} />
336 + <div className="vp-card p-4 text-[13.5px] leading-relaxed text-ink-2">
337 + {fr ? (
338 + <>
339 + Copie intégrale de la base d&apos;annonces <b>Immo-Ka</b> ({copied}) :{" "}
340 + {locNum(s.source.totalListings, "fr", { maxFrac: 0 })} annonces actives publiées, dont{" "}
341 + {locNum(s.source.matched, "fr", { maxFrac: 0 })} déjà jumelées à une unité du rôle d&apos;évaluation MAMH.{" "}
342 + {locNum(s.source.evaluated, "fr", { maxFrac: 0 })} ont pu être évaluées par le moteur (le reste :
343 + unités d&apos;un millésime plus récent que notre copie du rôle) ; l&apos;analyse retient les{" "}
344 + {locNum(s.source.valid, "fr", { maxFrac: 0 })} annonces à prix demandé ≥ 50 000 $ — le même seuil que
345 + les ventes retenues par le moteur. Le merge complet annonce ↔ estimation est conservé dans la table{" "}
346 + <code className="font-mono text-[12px]">uqo_eval</code> et chaque annonce passe par{" "}
347 + <i>exactement le même calcul</i> que le formulaire public : modèle hédonique + comparables ajustés,
348 + pondération 65 / 35. Ratio médian et MdAPE sont des médianes — robustes aux annonces extrêmes.
349 + </>
350 + ) : (
351 + <>
352 + Full copy of the <b>Immo-Ka</b> listings database ({copied}):{" "}
353 + {locNum(s.source.totalListings, "en", { maxFrac: 0 })} active published listings,{" "}
354 + {locNum(s.source.matched, "en", { maxFrac: 0 })} already matched to an MAMH assessment-roll unit.{" "}
355 + {locNum(s.source.evaluated, "en", { maxFrac: 0 })} could be appraised by the engine (the rest: units
356 + from a roll vintage newer than our copy); the analysis keeps the{" "}
357 + {locNum(s.source.valid, "en", { maxFrac: 0 })} listings asking ≥ $50,000 — the same floor as the sales
358 + the engine uses. The full listing ↔ estimate merge lives in the{" "}
359 + <code className="font-mono text-[12px]">uqo_eval</code> table, and every listing goes through{" "}
360 + <i>exactly the same computation</i> as the public form: hedonic model + adjusted comparables, 65/35
361 + weighting. Median ratio and MdAPE are medians — robust to extreme listings.
362 + </>
363 + )}
364 + </div>
365 + <p className="mb-4 mt-6 text-[11.5px] text-ink-3">
366 + {fr
367 + ? `Généré le ${new Date(s.generated).toLocaleDateString("fr-CA")} · données Immo-Ka + rôles MAMH · à vocation pédagogique.`
368 + : `Generated ${new Date(s.generated).toLocaleDateString("en-CA")} · Immo-Ka data + MAMH rolls · for teaching purposes.`}
369 + </p>
370 + </div>
371 + );
372 +}
added src/data/marche-stats.json +1 −0
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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