1# RECORD 008c3229443d60b36b8e1525b5af0589f63eb75d2# TITLE: Real Estate Prices in Beijing, 1644 to 18403# YEAR: 2012.0 VENUE: nan DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2012.10.0034# AUTHORS: D. Raff; Susan M. Wachter; Se Yan5# PAGES: 40 CANDIDATE TABLE PAGES (1-based): [35]6# ABSTRACT: This paper provides the first estimates of housing price movements for Beijing in late pre-modern China. We hand-collect from archival sources transaction prices and other house attribute information from the 498 surviving house sale contracts for Beijing during the first two centuries of the Qing Dynasty (1644-1840), a long period without major wars, political turmoil, or significant institutional change in the Chinese capital. We use hedonic methods to construct a real estate price index for Beijing for the period. The regression analysis explains a major proportion of the variance of housing prices. We find that house prices grew steadily for the first half-century of the Qing Dynasty and declined afterwards in both nominal and real terms through the late eighteenth century. Nominal prices grew starting in the late eighteenth century and declined from the early nineteenth century through 1840. But these price changes occurred with contemporaneous price changes in basic measures of the cost of living: there was little change in real terms to the end of our period.789===== PAGE 1 (score 1, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 1) =====10111 12 13Real Estate Prices in Beijing, 1644 to 1840* 14 15Daniel Raff 16Wharton School of Management, University of Pennsylvania 17raff@wharton.upenn.edu 18Susan Wachter 19Wharton School of Management, University of Pennsylvania 20wachter@wharton.upenn.edu 21Se Yan 22Guanghua School of Management, Peking University 23seyan@gsm.pku.edu.cn 24 25 26Abstract: 27We hand-collect transaction prices and other house attribute information from the 498 28surviving house sale contracts from Beijing during the Qing Dynasty years of 1644-1840, 29a long period without war, major political turmoil, or significant institutional change in 30the Chinese capital. We use hedonic methods to construct a real estate price index for 31Beijing for the period. Regression explains a quite respectable proportion of the variance. 32We find that house prices grew steadily for the first half-century of the Qing Dynasty and 33declined afterwards in both nominal and real terms. Nominal prices grew again in the 34late eighteenth century and declined again from the early nineteenth century. But these 35price changes occurred with contemporaneous price changes in basic measures of the cost 36of living: there was relatively little change in real terms in this second part of the period. 37More speculative comparisons of Qing-era prices with very recent ones suggest that long-38run differences have been more modest than one might have imagined. 39 40* We thank Zhang Xiaolin and Deng Yibin for their generous support in accessing these contracts. Raff 41and Wachter acknowledge support from the Wharton School Global Initiatives Fund. Yan acknowledges 42support from NSF (SES-0922531) and NSSFC grant (Project No. 09CJL009). 434445===== PAGE 35 (score 85, numeric-paren 79, table-words 1, var-words 4) =====464735 48Table 7 49Hedonic Regression Results 50 51(1) 52(2) 53(3) 54(4) 55No. of rooms 560.0499*** 570.0502*** 580.0626*** 590.0682*** 60(0.0029) 61(0.0035) 62(0.0039) 63(0.0052) 64No. of Courtyards 650.320*** 660.330*** 670.269*** 680.254*** 69(0.0454) 70(0.0471) 71(0.0459) 72(0.0484) 73Red contract 740.0790 750.0958 760.0242 770.1050 78(0.0948) 79(0.1210) 80(0.0940) 81(0.1170) 82Close to commercial center 83 84-0.261*** 85-0.264*** 86-0.245*** 87-0.216** 88(0.0851) 89(0.0944) 90(0.0842) 91(0.0917) 92Far from commercial center 93 94-0.318** 95-0.853*** 96-0.278** 97-0.817*** 98(0.1270) 99(0.2150) 100(0.1280) 101(0.2160) 102Forbidden city 103 104-0.0142 105 106-0.0428 107 108(0.1560) 109 110(0.1540) 111 112Outer city 113 114-0.302*** 115 116-0.220** 117 118(0.1070) 119 120(0.1080) 121 122Clay material 123-0.675*** 124-0.679*** 125-0.473** 126-0.466* 127(0.2040) 128(0.2570) 129(0.2100) 130(0.2580) 131Commercial estate 1320.235** 1330.1510 1340.276** 1350.2060 136(0.1110) 137(0.1500) 138(0.1100) 139(0.1470) 140Broken 141-0.333** 142-0.2910 143-0.391*** 144-0.325* 145(0.1430) 146(0.1860) 147(0.1400) 148(0.1800) 149Having a well 1500.756*** 1510.640* 1520.507* 1530.3540 154(0.2710) 155(0.3350) 156(0.2690) 157(0.3280) 158Constant 1593.893*** 1603.606*** 1613.817*** 1623.543*** 163(0.2390) 164(0.2240) 165(0.2400) 166(0.2210) 167N 168498 169331 170488 171325 1722173R 1740.5220 1750.5830 1760.5130 1770.5830 178*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 179 180 181 182 183184185===== PAGE 36 (score 2, numeric-paren 0, table-words 1, var-words 0) =====18618736 188Table 8 House Price Index and Rice Price Index 189Period 190House Price Index 191Period 192Rice Price Index 1931645-1669 194100.00 1951641-50 196100.00 1971670-1694 198201.78 1991651-60 20095.12 2011695-1719 202271.83 2031661-70 20467.80 2051720-1744 206194.84 2071671-80 20851.60 2091745-1769 210163.07 2111681-90 21268.39 2131770-1794 214229.33 2151691-1700 21658.37 2171795-1819 218276.77 2191701-10 22076.44 2211820-1840 222253.20 2231711-20 22473.30 225 226 2271721-30 22869.71 229 230 2311731-40 23279.32 233 234 2351741-50 23690.62 237 238 2391751-60 240129.61 241 242 2431761-70 244136.32 245 246 2471771-80 248120.46 249 250 2511781-90 252127.38 253 254 2551791-1800 256155.55 257 258 2591801-10 260172.21 261 262 2631811-20 264170.22 265 266 2671821-30 268153.77 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289