1# RECORD 362599527a7d7cc85cb4c07eeb223bebe6481a512# TITLE: Valuation of Flood Risk in Coastal Housing Markets: Evidence from Tampa Bay3# YEAR: 2026.0 VENUE: UF Journal of Undergraduate Research DOI: 10.32473/ufjur.28.1417494# AUTHORS: Ava Vellines5# PAGES: 11 CANDIDATE TABLE PAGES (1-based): []6# ABSTRACT: Florida exhibits growing tension between urban population growth and increasing exposure to coastal flooding risk. More than half of the state’s municipalities are threatened by chronic flooding, and in recent years the insurance market has been characterized by rising premiums and insurer withdrawals. Despite these signs, the Tampa Bay region remains one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the United States. This raises questions about whether housing markets are adequately incorporating flood risk into property values. 7While a flood risk discount on home prices has been observed in other places around the world, previous analysis of Florida finds that the desirability of coastal areas outweighs potential risks in the eyes of home buyers. This study uses a hedonic pricing framework and OLS regression to examine how flood risk is capitalized into housing prices in Tampa Bay using a dataset of home sales in Hillsborough County from 2022 to 2024. It reveals that homes with higher expected annual losses from coastal flooding sell at higher prices. This suggests that the desirability of coastal real estate still outweighs the financial and personal risks associated with flooding for prospective homeowners in Tampa Bay.8910===== PAGE 1 (score 9, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 9) =====1112 13University of Florida | Journal of Undergraduate Research | Volume 28 | 2026 14 15 16Valuation of Flood Risk in Coastal Housing Markets: 17Evidence from Tampa Bay 18 19Ava Vellines 20Department of Economics, University of Florida 21 22Mentor: Dr. Michelle Phillips, Department of Economics 23 24Abstract 25Florida exhibits growing tension between urban population growth and increasing exposure to coastal 26flooding risk. More than half of the state’s municipalities are threatened by chronic flooding, and in recent 27years the insurance market has been characterized by rising premiums and insurer withdrawals. Despite 28these signs, the Tampa Bay region remains one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the United 29States. This raises questions about whether housing markets are adequately incorporating flood risk into 30property values. While a flood risk discount on home prices has been observed in other places around the 31world, previous analysis of Florida finds that the desirability of coastal areas outweighs potential risks in 32the eyes of home buyers. This study uses a hedonic pricing framework and OLS regression to examine 33how flood risk is capitalized into housing prices in Tampa Bay using a dataset of home sales in 34Hillsborough County from 2022 to 2024. It reveals that homes with higher expected annual losses from 35coastal flooding sell at higher prices. This suggests that the desirability of coastal real estate still 36outweighs the financial and personal risks associated with flooding for prospective homeowners in Tampa 37Bay. 38Keywords: Flood risk, Housing markets, Hedonic pricing, Coastal development, Climate risk 39perception, Tampa Bay 40 41Introduction 42Climate change is increasing coastal flood risk dramatically, especially in Florida. More than 43half of Florida’s municipalities will be affected by sea level rise, and on average 30% of local 44revenues will be exposed to climate-related damages (Shi et al., 2023). Tampa Bay is among the 45top ten cities with the highest exposure of assets to flooding brought on by sea level rise (Fu et 46al., 2016). 47Real estate is at the center of this vulnerability. The real estate sector makes up the largest 48segment of Florida’s GDP and is especially threatened by flooding (IBISWorld, 2025). At the 49household level, flood risk also carries significant costs in the form of disaster recovery and 50insurance. 51