1# RECORD 37e8b014df3e5f26ac93ad70c5f3f3c607c04c262# TITLE: Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics in Bogotá, Colombia3# YEAR: 2025.0 VENUE: Journal of Transport and Land Use DOI: 10.5198/jtlu.2025.25934# AUTHORS: C. Vergel-Tovar; Juan Sebastián García; J. P. Álvarez; S. Mesa; Ingrid Lorena Molano; Leonardo Cañón-Rubiano; Laura M. Correa-Garzón5# PAGES: 51 CANDIDATE TABLE PAGES (1-based): [13, 15, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 27, 29, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38]6# ABSTRACT: Studies of the impacts of rail-based mass transit systems on land values and real estate prices are scarce in the Colombian context. Most studies have focused on estimating the impacts of bus rapid transit systems (BRT), mainly in Bogotá. There is an emerging literature on rail-based systems impacts on urban development and land values in Medellín, Colombia, while there is also an emerging interest regarding the effects of the announcements of the two metro projects of Bogotá in the city’s urban spatial structure. This paper develops a quasi-experimental research design looking at the anticipatory effects of the two lines of the Bogota Metro program on real estate market dynamics between 2007 and 2023. We used databases generated by the private sector with new housing developments including housing unit attributes and we estimated spatial variables and urban attributes associated with the location of each real estate development project. Through hedonic price models with control variables that incorporate attributes at different scales, our study estimates the effects of the Bogota Metro Line 1 project (in construction since 2021) on prices per square meter of real estate development projects over time. Results of the analysis suggest that the regulations implemented by the city, establishing an 800-meter impact area along Line 1, have had positive effects on real estate market prices after 2016, while results found no changes on real estate development dynamics in terms of prices per square meter due to the announcements of the planned second line of the metro project. We also included statistical analysis using isochrones based on walking distances to future metro stations. We found that the positive effects are taking place in all isochrones for the first line, while there are differences in the case of the second line of the metro project. Based on these findings, we provide guidelines for future research including public policy recommendations for the local and national government regarding value capture opportunities associated with the announcement of large-scale rail based urban transport projects.789===== PAGE 1 (score 9, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 9) =====1011The Journal of Transport and Land Use jtlu.org 12Vol. 18 No. 1 [2025] pp. 123–173 13 14 15Copyright 2025 C. Erik Vergel-Tovar, Juan Sebastián García. Juan Pablo Álvarez, Simón Mesa, Ingrid Lorena Molano, 16Leonardo Canon-Rubiano, & Laura M. Correa-Garzón 17 18https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2025.2593 19ISSN: 1938-7849 | Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution – Noncommercial License 4.0 20 21The Journal of Transport and Land Use is the official journal of the World Society for Transport and Land Use (WSTLUR) 22and is published and sponsored by the University of Minnesota Center for Transportation Studies. This paper is also 23published with additional sponsorship from WSTLUR. 24 25 26 27Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real 28estate dynamics in Bogotá, Colombia 29C. Erik Vergel-Tovar (corresponding author) 30Universidad de los Andes 31c.vergel@uniandes.edu.co 32Juan Sebastián García 33Universidad de los Andes 34js.garciad1@uniandes.edu.co 35Juan Pablo Álvarez 36Universidad de los Andes 37jp.alvarezs@uniandes.edu.co 38Simón Mesa 39Metro Agency of Bogota 40simon.mesacosta@gmail.com 41Ingrid Lorena Molano 42Metro Agency of Bogota 43ingrid.molano@metrodebogota.gov.co 44Leonardo Canon-Rubiano 45World Bank 46lcanonrubiano@worldbank.org 47Laura M. Correa-Garzón 48World Bank 49lcorreagarzon@worldbank.org 50 51 52 53Abstract: Studies of the impacts of rail-based mass transit systems on land values and real 54estate prices are scarce in the Colombian context. Most studies have focused on estimating the 55impacts of bus rapid transit systems (BRT), mainly in Bogotá. There is an emerging literature 56on rail-based systems impacts on urban development and land values in Medellín, Colombia, 57while there is also an emerging interest regarding the effects of the announcements of the two 58metro projects of Bogotá in the city’s urban spatial structure. This paper develops a quasi-59experimental research design looking at the anticipatory effects of the two lines of the Bogota 60Metro program on real estate market dynamics between 2007 and 2023. We used databases 61generated by the private sector with new housing developments including housing unit 62attributes and we estimated spatial variables and urban attributes associated with the location of 63each real estate development project. Through hedonic price models with control variables that 64incorporate attributes at different scales, our study estimates the effects of the Bogota Metro 65Line 1 project (in construction since 2021) on prices per square meter of real estate 66development projects over time. Results of the analysis suggest that the regulations 67implemented by the city, establishing an 800-meter impact area along Line 1, have had positive 68effects on real estate market prices after 2016, while results found no changes on real estate 69development dynamics in terms of prices per square meter due to the announcements of the 70planned second line of the metro project. We also included statistical analysis using isochrones 71based on walking distances to future metro stations. We found that the positive effects are 72taking place in all isochrones for the first line, while there are differences in the case of the 73second line of the metro project. Based on these findings, we provide guidelines for future 74research including public policy recommendations for the local and national government 75regarding value capture opportunities associated with the announcement of large-scale rail 76based urban transport projects. 77 78Keywords: Metro, real estate, anticipation effects, hedonic price analysis, Latin America 79 80Article history: 81Received: 82September 17, 2024 83Accepted: 84October 12, 2024 85Available online: 86February 17, 2025 87 88 899091===== PAGE 13 (score 58, numeric-paren 0, table-words 2, var-words 12) =====9293 94 95135 96Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics 97 98Table 2. Descriptive statistics isochrone analysis year 2007 – PLMB 99Year 2007 100 101Treatment 1 (N=47) 102Treatment 2 (N=157) 103Treatment 3 (N=431) 104Treatment 4 (N=225) 105Control (N=6,227) 106Variable 107Mean 108Std. 109Dev. 110Min 111Max 112Mean 113Std. 114Dev. 115Min 116Max 117Mean 118Std. 119Dev. 120Min 121Max 122Mean 123Std. 124Dev. 125Min 126Max 127Mean 128Std. 129Dev. 130Min 131Max 132Dependent variables 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153Log. Price per sqmt 15414.238 1550.674 15612.78 15715.08 14.062 1580.602 15912.12 16014.98 14.304 1610.542 16212.30 16315.48 14.634 1640.522 16512.91 16.03 14.260 1660.633 16710.27 16815.53 169Log. Distance to 170PLMB viaduct 1715.168 1720.382 1734.04 1745.72 1755.610 1760.738 1773.58 1786.72 1796.648 1800.390 1815.17 1827.18 1836.930 1840.216 1856.49 1867.25 1878.316 1880.600 1896.73 1909.59 191Log. Distance to 192CBD. 72 1938.419 1940.539 1957.97 1969.51 1978.225 1980.722 1996.95 2009.57 2017.518 2020.831 2035.94 2049.58 2057.224 2060.890 2076.09 2089.47 2098.628 2100.572 2116.36 2129.80 213Log. Distance to 214nearest activity center 2157.694 2160.429 2176.90 2188.13 2197.645 2200.455 2215.55 2228.20 2237.533 2240.685 2254.80 2268.22 2277.158 2280.641 2295.89 2308.20 2318.272 2320.662 2334.30 2349.59 235One 2360.000 2370.000 2380.00 2390.00 2400.000 2410.000 2420.00 2430.00 2440.000 2450.000 2460.00 2470.00 2480.000 2490.000 2500.00 2510.00 2520.000 2530.000 2540.00 2550.00 256Two 2570.149 2580.360 2590.00 2601.00 2610.146 2620.355 2630.00 2641.00 2650.053 2660.225 2670.00 2681.00 2690.027 2700.161 2710.00 2721.00 2730.041 2740.199 2750.00 2761.00 277Three 2780.106 2790.312 2800.00 2811.00 2820.236 2830.426 2840.00 2851.00 2860.137 2870.344 2880.00 2891.00 2900.040 2910.196 2920.00 2931.00 2940.138 2950.345 2960.00 2971.00 298Four 2990.745 3000.441 3010.00 3021.00 3030.618 3040.487 3050.00 3061.00 3070.580 3080.494 3090.00 3101.00 3110.316 3120.466 3130.00 3141.00 3150.248 3160.432 3170.00 3181.00 319Five 3200.000 3210.000 3220.00 3230.00 3240.000 3250.000 3260.00 3270.00 3280.111 3290.315 3300.00 3311.00 3320.307 3330.462 3340.00 3351.00 3360.237 3370.425 3380.00 3391.00 340Six 3410.000 3420.000 3430.00 3440.00 3450.000 3460.000 3470.00 3480.00 3490.118 3500.323 3510.00 3521.00 3530.311 3540.464 3550.00 3561.00 3570.336 3580.472 3590.00 3601.00 361Bedrooms 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382One 3830.213 3840.414 3850.00 3861.00 3870.191 3880.394 3890.00 3901.00 3910.202 3920.402 3930.00 3941.00 3950.191 3960.394 3970.00 3981.00 3990.094 4000.292 4010.00 4021.00 403Two 4040.404 4050.496 4060.00 4071.00 4080.338 4090.474 4100.00 4111.00 4120.325 4130.469 4140.00 4151.00 4160.244 4170.431 4180.00 4191.00 4200.234 4210.423 4220.00 4231.00 424Three 4250.362 4260.486 4270.00 4281.00 4290.446 4300.499 4310.00 4321.00 4330.436 4340.496 4350.00 4361.00 4370.533 4380.500 4390.00 4401.00 4410.609 4420.488 4430.00 4441.00 445Four 4460.021 4470.146 4480.00 4491.00 4500.025 4510.158 4520.00 4531.00 4540.037 4550.189 4560.00 4571.00 4580.031 4590.174 4600.00 4611.00 4620.063 4630.243 4640.00 4651.00 466Bathrooms 4671.706 4680.544 4691.00 4703.00 4711.819 4720.680 4731.00 4744.00 4752.232 4760.896 4771.00 4785.00 4792.621 4800.896 4811.00 4825.00 4832.559 4840.967 4851.00 4866.00 487Neighborhoods 488attributes 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509Log. Population 510density 5115.030 5122.354 5130.00 5146.48 5154.985 5162.091 5170.00 5187.14 5195.327 5201.757 5210.00 5227.62 5235.107 5241.763 5250.00 5267.13 5274.776 5282.209 5290.00 5307.50 531Log. Distance to 532nearest park 5334.380 5340.853 5352.54 5365.82 5374.148 5381.364 539-1.27 5405.77 5414.209 5420.994 543-0.45 5445.92 5453.367 5461.097 547-3.50 5485.83 5493.810 5501.392 551-6.81 5525.93 553Log. Distance to 554nearest equipment 5553.685 5560.246 5572.70 5584.21 5593.653 5601.338 561-3.11 5625.90 5633.893 5640.904 5651.22 5665.70 5674.289 5680.803 5692.38 5705.46 5714.428 5720.881 5730.58 5747.06 575Roads Index / Ratio 576-1.190 5770.492 578-1.67 579-0.44 580-1.615 5810.312 582-2.48 583-0.44 -1.811 5840.402 585-2.68 586-0.80 -1.739 5870.355 588-2.38 -1.31 -1.971 5890.463 590-4.73 5911.37 592Crime 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613Log. Homicides 6143.640 6150.974 6162.83 6175.40 6183.497 6190.934 6200.69 6215.40 6222.914 6230.782 6240.69 6255.40 6263.080 6270.601 6282.83 6295.40 6304.013 6310.663 6322.83 6335.40 634Log. Thefts 6356.941 6360.311 6376.41 6387.21 6396.670 6400.556 6415.04 6427.21 6436.847 6440.616 6455.04 6467.21 6476.974 6480.421 6495.91 6507.21 6517.137 6520.399 6534.99 6547.39 655(Table continues on the next page) 656 657 658659660===== PAGE 14 (score 18, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 2) =====661662136 663 664 665JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 666 667Year 2007 668 669Treatment 1 (N=47) 670Treatment 2 (N=157) 671Treatment 3 (N=431) 672Treatment 4 (N=225) 673Control (N=6,227) 674Variable 675Mean 676Std. 677Dev. 678Min 679Max 680Mean 681Std. 682Dev. 683Min 684Max 685Mean 686Std. 687Dev. 688Min 689Max 690Mean 691Std. 692Dev. 693Min 694Max 695Mean 696Std. 697Dev. 698Min 699Max 700Type of housing 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721Micro-apartments 7220.000 7230.000 7240.00 7250.00 7260.000 7270.000 7280.00 7290.00 7300.000 7310.000 7320.00 7330.00 7340.000 7350.000 7360.00 7370.00 7380.000 7390.000 7400.00 7410.00 742Affordable housing 7430.106 7440.312 7450.00 7461.00 7470.096 7480.295 7490.00 7501.00 7510.039 7520.195 7530.00 7541.00 7550.009 7560.094 7570.00 7581.00 7590.055 7600.227 7610.00 7621.00 763Market housing 7640.894 7650.312 7660.00 7671.00 7680.904 7690.295 7700.00 7711.00 7720.961 7730.195 7740.00 7751.00 7760.991 7770.094 7780.00 7791.00 7800.945 7810.227 7820.00 7831.00 784Small Area Plans 785 786 787 788 789 790 791 792 793 794 795 796 797 798 799 800 801 802 803 804 805Urban renewal 8060.000 8070.000 8080.00 8090.00 8100.006 8110.080 8120.00 8131.00 8140.002 8150.048 8160.00 8171.00 8180.000 8190.000 8200.00 8210.00 8220.011 8230.102 8240.00 8251.00 826Urban development 8270.277 8280.452 8290.00 8301.00 8310.000 8320.000 8330.00 8340.00 8350.019 8360.135 8370.00 8381.00 8390.000 8400.000 8410.00 8420.00 8430.004 8440.063 8450.00 8461.00 847BRT 848 849 850 851 852 853 854 855 856 857 858 859 860 861 862 863 864 865 866 867 868Buffer 500-meter 869built trunk 8700.957 8710.204 8720.00 8731.00 8740.682 8750.467 8760.00 8771.00 8780.348 8790.477 8800.00 8811.00 8820.453 8830.499 8840.00 8851.00 8860.298 8870.457 8880.00 8891.00 890Buffer 500-meter 891trunk under 892construction 8930.128 8940.337 8950.00 8961.00 8970.057 8980.233 8990.00 9001.00 9010.030 9020.171 9030.00 9041.00 9050.000 9060.000 9070.00 9080.00 9090.124 9100.330 9110.00 9121.00 913Buffer 500-meter 914Carrera Séptima 915Corridor 9160.532 9170.504 9180.00 9191.00 9200.497 9210.502 9220.00 9231.00 9240.561 9250.497 9260.00 9271.00 9280.449 9290.498 9300.00 9311.00 9320.175 9330.380 9340.00 9351.00 936 937938939===== PAGE 15 (score 58, numeric-paren 0, table-words 2, var-words 12) =====940941 942 943137 944Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics 945 946Table 3. Descriptive statistics isochrone analysis year 2023 – PLMB 947Year 2023 948 949Treatment 1 (N=221) 950Treatment 2 (N=649) 951Treatment 3 (N=1,712) 952Treatment 4 (N=770) 953Control (N=18,990) 954Variable 955Mean 956Std. 957Dev. 958Min 959Max 960Mean 961Std. 962Dev. 963Min 964Max 965Mean 966Std. 967Dev. 968Min 969Max 970Mean 971Std. 972Dev. 973Min 974Max 975Mean 976Std. 977Dev. 978Min 979Max 980Dependent variables 981Log. Price per 982sqmt 98315.213 9840.663 98512.90 98616.17 98715.115 9880.760 98912.83 99016.34 99115.265 9920.677 99312.63 99416.83 99515.319 9960.698 99713.02 99816.70 99915.105 10000.700 100110.27 100217.13 1003Log. Distance to 1004PLMB viaduct 10054.428 10061.004 10072.85 10085.88 10095.702 10100.888 10112.96 10126.75 10136.558 10140.551 10153.09 10167.25 10176.885 10180.239 10196.49 10207.34 10218.309 10220.588 10234.54 10249.76 1025Log. Distance to 1026CBD. 72 10277.843 10280.777 10296.70 10309.51 10318.038 10320.874 10335.54 10349.57 10357.729 10360.784 10375.89 10389.58 10397.748 10400.930 10416.09 10429.57 10438.644 10440.540 10456.34 10469.87 1047Log. Distance to 1048nearest activity 1049center 10507.648 10510.463 10525.80 10538.15 10547.482 10550.531 10565.55 10578.24 10587.534 10590.652 10604.80 10618.27 10627.126 10630.683 10645.89 10658.26 10668.285 10670.628 10684.30 10699.75 1070Socioeconomic level 1071One 10720.000 10730.000 10740.00 10750.00 10760.000 10770.000 10780.00 10790.00 10800.000 10810.000 10820.00 10830.00 10840.000 10850.000 10860.00 10870.00 10880.000 10890.019 10900.00 10911.00 1092Two 10930.068 10940.252 10950.00 10961.00 10970.074 10980.262 10990.00 11001.00 11010.046 11020.209 11030.00 11041.00 11050.087 11060.282 11070.00 11081.00 11090.046 11100.209 11110.00 11121.00 1113Three 11140.557 11150.498 11160.00 11171.00 11180.561 11190.497 11200.00 11211.00 11220.232 11230.422 11240.00 11251.00 11260.208 11270.406 11280.00 11291.00 11300.158 11310.364 11320.00 11331.00 1134Four 11350.376 11360.485 11370.00 11381.00 11390.331 11400.471 11410.00 11421.00 11430.513 11440.500 11450.00 11461.00 11470.225 11480.418 11490.00 11501.00 11510.235 11520.424 11530.00 11541.00 1155Five 11560.000 11570.000 11580.00 11590.00 11600.015 11610.123 11620.00 11631.00 11640.131 11650.337 11660.00 11671.00 11680.340 11690.474 11700.00 11711.00 11720.256 11730.436 11740.00 11751.00 1176Six 11770.000 11780.000 11790.00 11800.00 11810.018 11820.135 11830.00 11841.00 11850.079 11860.270 11870.00 11881.00 11890.140 11900.347 11910.00 11921.00 11930.306 11940.461 11950.00 11961.00 1197Bedrooms 1198One 11990.520 12000.501 12010.00 12021.00 12030.431 12040.496 12050.00 12061.00 12070.397 12080.489 12090.00 12101.00 12110.290 12120.454 12130.00 12141.00 12150.192 12160.394 12170.00 12181.00 1219Two 12200.303 12210.461 12220.00 12231.00 12240.293 12250.455 12260.00 12271.00 12280.324 12290.468 12300.00 12311.00 12320.291 12330.454 12340.00 12351.00 12360.291 12370.454 12380.00 12391.00 1240Three 12410.172 12420.378 12430.00 12441.00 12450.270 12460.444 12470.00 12481.00 12490.265 12500.441 12510.00 12521.00 12530.403 12540.491 12550.00 12561.00 12570.488 12580.500 12590.00 12601.00 1261Four 12620.005 12630.067 12640.00 12651.00 12660.006 12670.078 12680.00 12691.00 12700.014 12710.118 12720.00 12731.00 12740.017 12750.129 12760.00 12771.00 12780.029 12790.168 12800.00 12811.00 1282Bathrooms 12831.462 12840.567 12851.00 12863.00 12871.627 12880.706 12891.00 12905.00 12911.984 12920.860 12930.00 12946.00 12952.342 12961.108 12971.00 12987.00 12992.407 13000.969 13010.00 13028.00 1303Log. Population 1304density 13054.328 13062.042 13070.00 13087.09 13094.827 13101.926 13110.00 13127.14 13135.000 13141.717 13150.00 13167.62 13175.022 13181.778 13190.00 13207.38 13214.661 13222.184 1323-3.73 13247.50 1325Log. Distance to 1326nearest park 13274.671 13280.636 13292.54 13305.82 13314.409 13321.086 1333-1.27 13346.25 13354.434 13360.908 1337-0.45 13385.92 13393.584 13401.616 1341-3.53 13426.15 13433.983 13441.271 1345-6.81 13466.39 1347Log. Distance to 1348nearest 1349equipment 13503.676 13510.678 13520.59 13535.30 13543.898 13550.962 1356-3.11 13575.90 13583.790 13590.882 13601.03 13615.70 13624.191 13630.905 13640.86 13655.86 13664.358 13670.928 1368-1.67 13697.16 1370Roads Index / 1371Ratio 1372-1.526 13730.353 1374-2.10 1375-0.44 1376-1.664 13770.332 1378-2.48 1379-0.02 1380-1.744 13810.383 1382-2.80 1383-0.80 1384-1.807 13850.339 1386-2.68 1387-0.36 1388-1.960 13890.458 1390-5.12 13911.37 1392Crime 1393Log. Homicides 13942.626 13950.816 13962.08 13974.77 13982.912 13990.867 14001.10 14014.77 14022.499 14030.739 14041.10 14054.77 14062.585 14070.850 14081.10 14094.77 14103.266 14110.680 14121.10 14134.93 1414Log. Thefts 14158.914 14160.265 14177.71 14189.39 14198.811 14200.368 14216.63 14229.39 14238.813 14240.505 14256.63 14269.39 14278.832 14280.472 14296.63 14309.39 14318.968 14320.338 14336.63 14349.45 1435(Table continues on the next page) 1436 143714381439===== PAGE 16 (score 18, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 2) =====14401441138 1442 1443 1444JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 1445 1446 1447 1448 1449 1450 1451 1452 1453 1454 1455 1456 1457 1458 1459 1460 1461 1462 1463 1464 1465 1466 1467 1468 1469 1470 1471 1472 1473 1474 1475 1476 1477 1478 1479 1480 1481 1482 1483 1484 1485 1486 1487 1488Year 2023 1489 1490Treatment 1 (N=221) 1491Treatment 2 (N=649) 1492Treatment 3 (N=1,712) 1493Treatment 4 (N=770) 1494Control (N=18,990) 1495Variable 1496Mean 1497Std. 1498Dev. 1499Min 1500Max 1501Mean 1502Std. 1503Dev. 1504Min 1505Max 1506Mean 1507Std. 1508Dev. 1509Min 1510Max 1511Mean 1512Std. 1513Dev. 1514Min 1515Max 1516Mean 1517Std. 1518Dev. 1519Min 1520Max 1521Type of housing 1522Micro-1523apartments 15240.054 15250.227 15260.00 15271.00 15280.032 15290.177 15300.00 15311.00 15320.020 15330.140 15340.00 15351.00 15360.025 15370.155 15380.00 15391.00 15400.002 15410.047 15420.00 15431.00 1544Affordable 1545housing 15460.163 15470.370 15480.00 15491.00 15500.096 15510.294 15520.00 15531.00 15540.053 15550.224 15560.00 15571.00 15580.081 15590.272 15600.00 15611.00 15620.079 15630.270 15640.00 15651.00 1566Market housing 15670.783 15680.413 15690.00 15701.00 15710.872 15720.334 15730.00 15741.00 15750.927 15760.260 15770.00 15781.00 15790.895 15800.307 15810.00 15821.00 15830.918 15840.274 15850.00 15861.00 1587Small Area Plans 1588Urban renewal 15890.000 15900.000 15910.00 15920.00 15930.002 15940.039 15950.00 15961.00 15970.001 15980.034 15990.00 16001.00 16010.000 16020.000 16030.00 16040.00 16050.018 16060.131 16070.00 16081.00 1609Urban 1610development 16110.122 16120.328 16130.00 16141.00 16150.002 16160.039 16170.00 16181.00 16190.018 16200.133 16210.00 16221.00 16230.000 16240.000 16250.00 16260.00 16270.006 16280.078 16290.00 16301.00 1631BRT 1632Buffer 500-1633meter built trunk 16340.964 16350.187 16360.00 16371.00 16380.710 16390.454 16400.00 16411.00 16420.502 16430.500 16440.00 16451.00 16460.548 16470.498 16480.00 16491.00 16500.289 16510.453 16520.00 16531.00 1654Buffer 500-1655meter trunk 1656under 1657construction 16580.036 16590.187 16600.00 16611.00 16620.037 16630.189 16640.00 16651.00 16660.009 16670.093 16680.00 16691.00 16700.023 16710.151 16720.00 16731.00 16740.123 16750.329 16760.00 16771.00 1678Buffer 500-1679meter Carrera 1680Séptima 1681Corridor 16820.579 16830.495 16840.00 16851.00 16860.342 16870.475 16880.00 16891.00 16900.457 16910.498 16920.00 16931.00 16940.204 16950.403 16960.00 16971.00 16980.149 16990.357 17000.00 17011.00 1702 170317041705===== PAGE 18 (score 90, numeric-paren 64, table-words 6, var-words 1) =====17061707140 1708 1709 1710JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 1711 1712Table 4. Hedonic price model of the anticipation effects of the future PLMB on real estate development prices between 2007 and 2023 in 1713isochrone analysis (N=278,393). 1714 1715Base Model 1716 1717Model 2 1718(Partial Plans) 1719 1720Model 3 1721(BRT buffer 500mts) 1722 1723Model 4 1724(Partial Plans 1725& BRT buffer 500mts) 1726 1727Dependent variable: 1728 1729Dependent variable: 1730 1731Dependent variable: 1732 1733Dependent variable: 1734 1735Ln. Price per square meter 1736 Ln. Price per square meter 1737 Ln. Price per square meter 1738 Ln. Price per square meter 1739Year 1740 1741 1742 1743 1744 1745 1746 1747 1748 1749 1750 1751 1752 1753 1754 17552007 17560.001 1757 1758-0.009 1759 17600.000 1761 1762-0.009 1763 17640.001 1765 1766-0.009 1767 17680.000 1769 1770-0.009 17712008 17720.135 1773*** 1774-0.008 1775 17760.134 1777*** 1778-0.008 1779 17800.135 1781*** 1782-0.008 1783 17840.134 1785*** 1786-0.008 17872009 17880.203 1789*** 1790-0.008 1791 17920.203 1793*** 1794-0.008 1795 17960.203 1797*** 1798-0.008 1799 18000.203 1801*** 1802-0.008 18032010 18040.268 1805*** 1806-0.008 1807 18080.268 1809*** 1810-0.008 1811 18120.269 1813*** 1814-0.008 1815 18160.268 1817*** 1818-0.008 18192011 18200.328 1821*** 1822-0.008 1823 18240.327 1825*** 1826-0.008 1827 18280.329 1829*** 1830-0.008 1831 18320.327 1833*** 1834-0.008 18352012 18360.385 1837*** 1838-0.008 1839 18400.383 1841*** 1842-0.008 1843 18440.385 1845*** 1846-0.008 1847 18480.384 1849*** 1850-0.008 18512013 18520.462 1853*** 1854-0.008 1855 18560.460 1857*** 1858-0.008 1859 18600.463 1861*** 1862-0.008 1863 18640.461 1865*** 1866-0.008 18672014 18680.516 1869*** 1870-0.008 1871 18720.514 1873*** 1874-0.008 1875 18760.517 1877*** 1878-0.008 1879 18800.515 1881*** 1882-0.008 18832015 18840.553 1885*** 1886-0.008 1887 18880.550 1889*** 1890-0.008 1891 18920.553 1893*** 1894-0.008 1895 18960.551 1897*** 1898-0.008 18992016 19000.649 1901*** 1902-0.009 1903 19040.646 1905*** 1906-0.009 1907 19080.650 1909*** 1910-0.009 1911 19120.647 1913*** 1914-0.009 19152017 19160.705 1917*** 1918-0.010 1919 19200.701 1921*** 1922-0.010 1923 19240.706 1925*** 1926-0.010 1927 19280.702 1929*** 1930-0.010 19312018 19320.745 1933*** 1934-0.011 1935 19360.739 1937*** 1938-0.011 1939 19400.746 1941*** 1942-0.011 1943 19440.741 1945*** 1946-0.011 19472019 19480.778 1949*** 1950-0.012 1951 19520.772 1953*** 1954-0.012 1955 19560.779 1957*** 1958-0.012 1959 19600.774 1961*** 1962-0.012 19632020 19640.787 1965*** 1966-0.010 1967 19680.783 1969*** 1970-0.010 1971 19720.788 1973*** 1974-0.010 1975 19760.784 1977*** 1978-0.010 19792021 19800.821 1981*** 1982-0.011 1983 19840.815 1985*** 1986-0.011 1987 19880.822 1989*** 1990-0.011 1991 19920.817 1993*** 1994-0.011 19952022 19960.858 1997*** 1998-0.012 1999 20000.852 2001*** 2002-0.012 2003 20040.859 2005*** 2006-0.012 2007 20080.854 2009*** 2010-0.012 20112023 20120.856 2013*** 2014-0.011 2015 20160.850 2017*** 2018-0.011 2019 20200.857 2021*** 2022-0.011 2023 20240.852 2025*** 2026-0.011 2027(Table continues on the next page) 202820292030===== PAGE 19 (score 77, numeric-paren 51, table-words 5, var-words 2) =====20312032 2033 2034141 2035Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics 2036 2037 2038Base Model 2039 2040Model 2 2041(Partial Plans) 2042 2043Model 3 2044(BRT buffer 500mts) 2045 2046Model 4 2047(Partial Plans 2048& BRT buffer 500mts) 2049 2050Dependent variable: 2051 2052Dependent variable: 2053 2054Dependent variable: 2055 2056Dependent variable: 2057 2058Ln. Price per square meter 2059 Ln. Price per square meter 2060 Ln. Price per square meter 2061 Ln. Price per square meter 2062Interaction isochrone 5min * year 2063 2064 2065 2066 2067 2068 2069 2070 2071 2072 2073 2074 2075 2076 2077 20782006*isochrone 5min PLMB 2079-0.252 2080*** 2081-0.041 2082 2083-0.277 2084*** 2085-0.042 2086 2087-0.258 2088*** 2089-0.041 2090 2091-0.283 2092*** 2093-0.043 20942007*isochrone 5min PLMB 20950.081 2096 2097-0.072 2098 20990.039 2100 2101-0.076 2102 21030.074 2104 2105-0.072 2106 21070.032 2108 2109-0.076 21102008*isochrone 5min PLMB 2111-0.009 2112 2113-0.059 2114 2115-0.045 2116 2117-0.059 2118 2119-0.016 2120 2121-0.059 2122 2123-0.053 2124 2125-0.059 21262009*isochrone 5min PLMB 21270.054 2128 2129-0.041 2130 21310.014 2132 2133-0.044 2134 21350.046 2136 2137-0.041 2138 21390.006 2140 2141-0.043 21422010*isochrone 5min PLMB 2143-0.026 2144 2145-0.075 2146 2147-0.063 2148 2149-0.076 2150 2151-0.034 2152 2153-0.075 2154 2155-0.071 2156 2157-0.076 21582011*isochrone 5min PLMB 2159-0.065 2160 2161-0.043 2162 2163-0.102 2164** 2165-0.044 2166 2167-0.072 2168* 2169-0.043 2170 2171-0.109 2172** 2173-0.044 21742012*isochrone 5min PLMB 2175-0.105 2176** 2177-0.041 2178 2179-0.142 2180*** 2181-0.043 2182 2183-0.112 2184*** 2185-0.041 2186 2187-0.149 2188*** 2189-0.043 21902013*isochrone 5min PLMB 2191-0.324 2192*** 2193-0.053 2194 2195-0.353 2196*** 2197-0.053 2198 2199-0.330 2200*** 2201-0.053 2202 2203-0.360 2204*** 2205-0.053 22062014*isochrone 5min PLMB 2207-0.065 2208* 2209-0.040 2210 2211-0.092 2212** 2213-0.041 2214 2215-0.072 2216* 2217-0.040 2218 2219-0.099 2220** 2221-0.041 22222015*isochrone 5min PLMB 2223-0.224 2224*** 2225-0.046 2226 2227-0.252 2228*** 2229-0.047 2230 2231-0.232 2232*** 2233-0.046 2234 2235-0.259 2236*** 2237-0.047 22382016*isochrone 5min PLMB 22390.051 2240 2241-0.040 2242 22430.028 2244 2245-0.041 2246 22470.044 2248 2249-0.040 2250 22510.021 2252 2253-0.041 22542017*isochrone 5min PLMB 22550.166 2256*** 2257-0.038 2258 22590.144 2260*** 2261-0.039 2262 22630.158 2264*** 2265-0.038 2266 22670.137 2268*** 2269-0.039 22702018*isochrone 5min PLMB 22710.157 2272*** 2273-0.038 2274 22750.136 2276*** 2277-0.039 2278 22790.149 2280*** 2281-0.038 2282 22830.128 2284*** 2285-0.039 22862019*isochrone 5min PLMB 22870.147 2288*** 2289-0.038 2290 22910.126 2292*** 2293-0.039 2294 22950.139 2296*** 2297-0.038 2298 22990.118 2300*** 2301-0.039 23022020*isochrone 5min PLMB 23030.112 2304*** 2305-0.036 2306 23070.092 2308** 2309-0.037 2310 23110.104 2312*** 2313-0.036 2314 23150.084 2316** 2317-0.037 23182021*isochrone 5min PLMB 23190.119 2320*** 2321-0.035 2322 23230.101 2324*** 2325-0.036 2326 23270.111 2328*** 2329-0.035 2330 23310.093 2332*** 2333-0.036 23342022*isochrone 5min PLMB 23350.136 2336*** 2337-0.033 2338 23390.120 2340*** 2341-0.034 2342 23430.128 2344*** 2345-0.033 2346 23470.112 2348*** 2349-0.034 23502023*isochrone 5min PLMB 23510.137 2352*** 2353-0.033 2354 23550.120 2356*** 2357-0.034 2358 23590.129 2360*** 2361-0.033 2362 23630.113 2364*** 2365-0.034 2366(Table continues on the next page) 236723682369===== PAGE 20 (score 78, numeric-paren 54, table-words 5, var-words 0) =====23702371142 2372 2373 2374JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 2375 2376 2377Base Model 2378 2379Model 2 2380(Partial Plans) 2381 2382Model 3 2383(BRT buffer 500mts) 2384 2385Model 4 2386(Partial Plans 2387& BRT buffer 500mts) 2388 2389Dependent variable: 2390 2391Dependent variable: 2392 2393Dependent variable: 2394 2395Dependent variable: 2396Ln. Price per square meter 2397Ln. Price per square meter 2398Ln. Price per square meter 2399Ln. Price per square meter 2400Interaction isochrone 10min * year 2401 2402 2403 2404 2405 2406 2407 2408 2409 2410 2411 2412 2413 2414 2415 24162006*isochrone 10min PLMB 2417-0.083 2418*** 2419-0.021 2420 2421-0.082 2422*** 2423-0.021 2424 2425-0.088 2426*** 2427-0.021 2428 2429-0.088 2430*** 2431-0.021 24322007*isochrone 10min PLMB 2433-0.111 2434*** 2435-0.032 2436 2437-0.109 2438*** 2439-0.032 2440 2441-0.116 2442*** 2443-0.032 2444 2445-0.115 2446*** 2447-0.032 24482008*isochrone 10min PLMB 2449-0.204 2450*** 2451-0.029 2452 2453-0.203 2454*** 2455-0.029 2456 2457-0.210 2458*** 2459-0.029 2460 2461-0.209 2462*** 2463-0.029 24642009*isochrone 10min PLMB 2465-0.159 2466*** 2467-0.022 2468 2469-0.158 2470*** 2471-0.022 2472 2473-0.165 2474*** 2475-0.022 2476 2477-0.164 2478*** 2479-0.022 24802010*isochrone 10min PLMB 2481-0.141 2482*** 2483-0.024 2484 2485-0.138 2486*** 2487-0.024 2488 2489-0.147 2490*** 2491-0.024 2492 2493-0.144 2494*** 2495-0.024 24962011*isochrone 10min PLMB 2497-0.177 2498*** 2499-0.023 2500 2501-0.176 2502*** 2503-0.023 2504 2505-0.183 2506*** 2507-0.023 2508 2509-0.182 2510*** 2511-0.023 25122012*isochrone 10min PLMB 2513-0.266 2514*** 2515-0.026 2516 2517-0.266 2518*** 2519-0.026 2520 2521-0.272 2522*** 2523-0.026 2524 2525-0.272 2526*** 2527-0.026 25282013*isochrone 10min PLMB 2529-0.167 2530*** 2531-0.024 2532 2533-0.166 2534*** 2535-0.024 2536 2537-0.173 2538*** 2539-0.024 2540 2541-0.172 2542*** 2543-0.024 25442014*isochrone 10min PLMB 2545-0.187 2546*** 2547-0.024 2548 2549-0.186 2550*** 2551-0.024 2552 2553-0.193 2554*** 2555-0.024 2556 2557-0.192 2558*** 2559-0.024 25602015*isochrone 10min PLMB 2561-0.151 2562*** 2563-0.025 2564 2565-0.150 2566*** 2567-0.025 2568 2569-0.157 2570*** 2571-0.025 2572 2573-0.156 2574*** 2575-0.025 25762016*isochrone 10min PLMB 2577-0.128 2578*** 2579-0.026 2580 2581-0.127 2582*** 2583-0.026 2584 2585-0.134 2586*** 2587-0.026 2588 2589-0.133 2590*** 2591-0.026 25922017*isochrone 10min PLMB 2593-0.081 2594*** 2595-0.025 2596 2597-0.083 2598*** 2599-0.025 2600 2601-0.087 2602*** 2603-0.025 2604 2605-0.089 2606*** 2607-0.025 26082018*isochrone 10min PLMB 2609-0.060 2610** 2611-0.025 2612 2613-0.062 2614** 2615-0.025 2616 2617-0.066 2618*** 2619-0.025 2620 2621-0.068 2622*** 2623-0.025 26242019*isochrone 10min PLMB 2625-0.020 2626 2627-0.024 2628 2629-0.022 2630 2631-0.024 2632 2633-0.026 2634 2635-0.024 2636 2637-0.027 2638 2639-0.024 26402020*isochrone 10min PLMB 2641-0.008 2642 2643-0.024 2644 2645-0.009 2646 2647-0.024 2648 2649-0.013 2650 2651-0.024 2652 2653-0.015 2654 2655-0.024 26562021*isochrone 10min PLMB 26570.023 2658 2659-0.023 2660 26610.023 2662 2663-0.023 2664 26650.017 2666 2667-0.023 2668 26690.017 2670 2671-0.023 26722022*isochrone 10min PLMB 26730.042 2674* 2675-0.023 2676 26770.042 2678* 2679-0.023 2680 26810.036 2682 2683-0.023 2684 26850.036 2686 2687-0.023 26882023*isochrone 10min PLMB 26890.038 2690 2691-0.023 2692 26930.038 2694 2695-0.023 2696 26970.032 2698 2699-0.023 2700 27010.032 2702 2703-0.023 2704(Table continues on next page) 270527062707===== PAGE 21 (score 78, numeric-paren 52, table-words 5, var-words 2) =====27082709 2710 2711143 2712Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics 2713 2714 2715Base Model 2716 2717Model 2 2718(Partial Plans) 2719 2720Model 3 2721(BRT buffer 500mts) 2722 2723Model 4 2724(Partial Plans 2725& BRT buffer 500mts) 2726 2727Dependent variable: 2728 2729Dependent variable: 2730 2731Dependent variable: 2732 2733Dependent variable: 2734Ln. Price per square meter 2735Ln. Price per square meter 2736Ln. Price per square meter 2737Ln. Price per square meter 2738Interaction isochrone 15min * year 2739 2740 2741 2742 2743 2744 2745 2746 2747 2748 2749 2750 2751 2752 2753 27542006*isochrone 15min PLMB 2755-0.150 2756*** 2757-0.025 2758 2759-0.153 2760*** 2761-0.025 2762 2763-0.154 2764*** 2765-0.025 2766 2767-0.156 2768*** 2769-0.025 27702007*isochrone 15min PLMB 2771-0.071 2772*** 2773-0.020 2774 2775-0.073 2776*** 2777-0.020 2778 2779-0.074 2780*** 2781-0.020 2782 2783-0.077 2784*** 2785-0.020 27862008*isochrone 15min PLMB 2787-0.165 2788*** 2789-0.019 2790 2791-0.167 2792*** 2793-0.019 2794 2795-0.168 2796*** 2797-0.019 2798 2799-0.170 2800*** 2801-0.019 28022009*isochrone 15min PLMB 2803-0.053 2804*** 2805-0.016 2806 2807-0.054 2808*** 2809-0.016 2810 2811-0.056 2812*** 2813-0.016 2814 2815-0.057 2816*** 2817-0.016 28182010*isochrone 15min PLMB 2819-0.037 2820** 2821-0.018 2822 2823-0.036 2824** 2825-0.018 2826 2827-0.040 2828** 2829-0.018 2830 2831-0.040 2832** 2833-0.018 28342011*isochrone 15min PLMB 2835-0.023 2836 2837-0.015 2838 2839-0.024 2840 2841-0.015 2842 2843-0.026 2844* 2845-0.015 2846 2847-0.028 2848* 2849-0.015 28502012*isochrone 15min PLMB 2851-0.082 2852*** 2853-0.016 2854 2855-0.084 2856*** 2857-0.017 2858 2859-0.085 2860*** 2861-0.017 2862 2863-0.088 2864*** 2865-0.017 28662013*isochrone 15min PLMB 2867-0.095 2868*** 2869-0.016 2870 2871-0.098 2872*** 2873-0.016 2874 2875-0.098 2876*** 2877-0.016 2878 2879-0.102 2880*** 2881-0.016 28822014*isochrone 15min PLMB 2883-0.090 2884*** 2885-0.016 2886 2887-0.094 2888*** 2889-0.016 2890 2891-0.094 2892*** 2893-0.016 2894 2895-0.098 2896*** 2897-0.016 28982015*isochrone 15min PLMB 2899-0.148 2900*** 2901-0.017 2902 2903-0.152 2904*** 2905-0.017 2906 2907-0.151 2908*** 2909-0.017 2910 2911-0.155 2912*** 2913-0.017 29142016*isochrone 15min PLMB 2915-0.057 2916*** 2917-0.016 2918 2919-0.061 2920*** 2921-0.016 2922 2923-0.062 2924*** 2925-0.016 2926 2927-0.065 2928*** 2929-0.016 29302017*isochrone 15min PLMB 2931-0.022 2932 2933-0.016 2934 2935-0.025 2936 2937-0.016 2938 2939-0.026 2940* 2941-0.016 2942 2943-0.030 2944* 2945-0.016 29462018*isochrone 15min PLMB 2947-0.010 2948 2949-0.016 2950 2951-0.014 2952 2953-0.016 2954 2955-0.014 2956 2957-0.016 2958 2959-0.018 2960 2961-0.016 29622019*isochrone 15min PLMB 29630.024 2964 2965-0.016 2966 29670.020 2968 2969-0.016 2970 29710.020 2972 2973-0.016 2974 29750.016 2976 2977-0.016 29782020*isochrone 15min PLMB 29790.012 2980 2981-0.016 2982 29830.008 2984 2985-0.016 2986 29870.007 2988 2989-0.016 2990 29910.003 2992 2993-0.016 29942021*isochrone 15min PLMB 29950.017 2996 2997-0.015 2998 29990.014 3000 3001-0.015 3002 30030.012 3004 3005-0.016 3006 30070.009 3008 3009-0.016 30102022*isochrone 15min PLMB 30110.034 3012** 3013-0.016 3014 30150.031 3016** 3017-0.016 3018 30190.029 3020* 3021-0.016 3022 30230.027 3024* 3025-0.016 30262023*isochrone 15min PLMB 30270.037 3028** 3029-0.016 3030 30310.034 3032** 3033-0.016 3034 30350.032 3036** 3037-0.016 3038 30390.029 3040* 3041-0.016 3042(Table continues on the next page) 304330443045===== PAGE 22 (score 69, numeric-paren 45, table-words 5, var-words 0) =====30463047144 3048 3049 3050JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 3051 3052 3053Base Model 3054 3055Model 2 3056(Partial Plans) 3057 3058Model 3 3059(BRT buffer 500mts) 3060 3061Model 4 3062(Partial Plans 3063& BRT buffer 500mts) 3064 3065Dependent variable: 3066 3067Dependent variable: 3068 3069Dependent variable: 3070 3071Dependent variable: 3072 3073Ln. Price per square meter 3074 Ln. Price per square meter 3075 Ln. Price per square meter 3076 Ln. Price per square meter 3077Interaction isochrone 20min * year 3078 3079 3080 3081 3082 3083 3084 3085 3086 3087 3088 3089 3090 3091 3092 30932006*isochrone 20min PLMB 3094-0.314 3095*** 3096-0.056 3097 3098-0.313 3099*** 3100-0.056 3101 3102-0.319 3103*** 3104-0.056 3105 3106-0.317 3107*** 3108-0.056 31092007*isochrone 20min PLMB 31100.099 3111*** 3112-0.028 3113 31140.101 3115*** 3116-0.028 3117 31180.094 3119*** 3120-0.029 3121 31220.096 3123*** 3124-0.028 31252008*isochrone 20min PLMB 31260.039 3127 3128-0.026 3129 31300.040 3131 3132-0.026 3133 31340.034 3135 3136-0.026 3137 31380.036 3139 3140-0.026 31412009*isochrone 20min PLMB 31420.069 3143*** 3144-0.020 3145 31460.071 3147*** 3148-0.020 3149 31500.064 3151*** 3152-0.020 3153 31540.067 3155*** 3156-0.020 31572010*isochrone 20min PLMB 31580.074 3159*** 3160-0.021 3161 31620.078 3163*** 3164-0.021 3165 31660.069 3167*** 3168-0.021 3169 31700.074 3171*** 3172-0.021 31732011*isochrone 20min PLMB 31740.031 3175* 3176-0.018 3177 31780.033 3179* 3180-0.018 3181 31820.027 3183 3184-0.018 3185 31860.029 3187 3188-0.018 31892012*isochrone 20min PLMB 3190-0.021 3191 3192-0.020 3193 3194-0.019 3195 3196-0.019 3197 3198-0.025 3199 3200-0.020 3201 3202-0.022 3203 3204-0.020 32052013*isochrone 20min PLMB 3206-0.063 3207*** 3208-0.019 3209 3210-0.061 3211*** 3212-0.019 3213 3214-0.067 3215*** 3216-0.019 3217 3218-0.065 3219*** 3220-0.019 32212014*isochrone 20min PLMB 3222-0.044 3223** 3224-0.021 3225 3226-0.043 3227** 3228-0.021 3229 3230-0.048 3231** 3232-0.021 3233 3234-0.046 3235** 3236-0.021 32372015*isochrone 20min PLMB 3238-0.052 3239** 3240-0.022 3241 3242-0.049 3243** 3244-0.022 3245 3246-0.055 3247** 3248-0.022 3249 3250-0.053 3251** 3252-0.022 32532016*isochrone 20min PLMB 3254-0.039 3255* 3256-0.023 3257 3258-0.037 3259 3260-0.023 3261 3262-0.043 3263* 3264-0.023 3265 3266-0.040 3267* 3268-0.023 32692017*isochrone 20min PLMB 3270-0.018 3271 3272-0.023 3273 3274-0.016 3275 3276-0.023 3277 3278-0.022 3279 3280-0.023 3281 3282-0.019 3283 3284-0.023 32852018*isochrone 20min PLMB 3286-0.003 3287 3288-0.022 3289 3290-0.001 3291 3292-0.023 3293 3294-0.007 3295 3296-0.023 3297 3298-0.004 3299 3300-0.023 33012019*isochrone 20min PLMB 33020.016 3303 3304-0.022 3305 33060.019 3307 3308-0.022 3309 33100.012 3311 3312-0.022 3313 33140.016 3315 3316-0.022 33172020*isochrone 20min PLMB 33180.016 3319 3320-0.022 3321 33220.018 3323 3324-0.022 3325 33260.012 3327 3328-0.022 3329 33300.015 3331 3332-0.022 33332021*isochrone 20min PLMB 33340.091 3335*** 3336-0.022 3337 33380.095 3339*** 3340-0.022 3341 33420.087 3343*** 3344-0.022 3345 33460.091 3347*** 3348-0.022 33492022*isochrone 20min PLMB 33500.072 3351*** 3352-0.021 3353 33540.076 3355*** 3356-0.022 3357 33580.068 3359*** 3360-0.021 3361 33620.073 3363*** 3364-0.022 33652023*isochrone 20min PLMB 33660.083 3367*** 3368-0.022 3369 33700.087 3371*** 3372-0.022 3373 33740.079 3375*** 3376-0.022 3377 33780.083 3379*** 3380-0.022 3381(Table continues on the next page) 338233833384===== PAGE 23 (score 88, numeric-paren 56, table-words 5, var-words 10) =====33853386 3387 3388145 3389Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics 3390 3391 3392Base Model 3393 3394Model 2 3395(Partial Plans) 3396 3397Model 3 3398(BRT buffer 500mts) 3399 3400Model 4 3401(Partial Plans 3402& BRT buffer 500mts) 3403 3404Dependent variable: 3405 3406Dependent variable: 3407 3408Dependent variable: 3409 3410Dependent variable: 3411 3412Ln. Price per square meter 3413 Ln. Price per square meter 3414 Ln. Price per square meter 3415 Ln. Price per square meter 3416Bedrooms 3417 3418 3419 3420 3421 3422 3423 3424 3425 3426 3427 3428 3429 3430 3431 34321 34330.833 3434*** 3435-0.007 3436 34370.834 3438*** 3439-0.007 3440 34410.833 3442*** 3443-0.007 3444 34450.834 3446*** 3447-0.007 34482 34490.563 3450*** 3451-0.006 3452 34530.563 3454*** 3455-0.006 3456 34570.563 3458*** 3459-0.006 3460 34610.564 3462*** 3463-0.006 34643 34650.338 3466*** 3467-0.006 3468 34690.338 3470*** 3471-0.006 3472 34730.338 3474*** 3475-0.006 3476 34770.339 3478*** 3479-0.006 3480Bathrooms 34810.187 3482*** 3483-0.002 3484 34850.186 3486*** 3487-0.002 3488 34890.187 3490*** 3491-0.002 3492 34930.186 3494*** 3495-0.002 3496Housing type 3497 3498 3499 3500 3501 3502 3503 3504 3505 3506 3507 3508 3509 3510 3511 3512Market housing (reference) 3513 3514 3515 3516 3517 3518 3519 3520 3521 3522 3523 3524 3525 3526 3527 3528Micro-apartments 35290.523 3530*** 3531-0.010 3532 35330.524 3534*** 3535-0.010 3536 35370.522 3538*** 3539-0.010 3540 35410.523 3542*** 3543-0.010 3544Affordable housing 3545-0.199 3546*** 3547-0.005 3548 3549-0.200 3550*** 3551-0.005 3552 3553-0.198 3554*** 3555-0.005 3556 3557-0.199 3558*** 3559-0.005 3560Socioeconomic Level (1 reference) 3561 3562 3563 3564 3565 3566 3567 3568 3569 3570 3571 3572 3573 3574 3575 35762 3577-0.886 3578*** 3579-0.028 3580 3581-0.889 3582*** 3583-0.028 3584 3585-0.885 3586*** 3587-0.028 3588 3589-0.888 3590*** 3591-0.028 35923 3593-0.419 3594*** 3595-0.028 3596 3597-0.423 3598*** 3599-0.028 3600 3601-0.420 3602*** 3603-0.028 3604 3605-0.423 3606*** 3607-0.028 36084 3609-0.239 3610*** 3611-0.029 3612 3613-0.245 3614*** 3615-0.029 3616 3617-0.240 3618*** 3619-0.029 3620 3621-0.245 3622*** 3623-0.029 36245 3625-0.125 3626*** 3627-0.029 3628 3629-0.128 3630*** 3631-0.029 3632 3633-0.128 3634*** 3635-0.029 3636 3637-0.131 3638*** 3639-0.029 36406 3641-0.028 3642 3643-0.029 3644 3645-0.031 3646 3647-0.029 3648 3649-0.026 3650 3651-0.029 3652 3653-0.029 3654 3655-0.029 3656Neighborhood attributes 3657 3658 3659 3660 3661 3662 3663 3664 3665 3666 3667 3668 3669 3670 3671 3672Log. Population density 3673-0.006 3674*** 36750.000 3676 3677-0.006 3678*** 36790.000 3680 3681-0.006 3682*** 36830.000 3684 3685-0.006 3686*** 36870.000 3688Log. Distance to nearest park 36890.015 3690*** 3691-0.001 3692 36930.015 3694*** 3695-0.001 3696 36970.015 3698*** 3699-0.001 3700 37010.015 3702*** 3703-0.001 3704Log. Distance to nearest equipment 3705-0.013 3706*** 3707-0.001 3708 3709-0.013 3710*** 3711-0.001 3712 3713-0.013 3714*** 3715-0.001 3716 3717-0.013 3718*** 3719-0.001 3720Roads Index 3721-0.018 3722*** 3723-0.002 3724 3725-0.017 3726*** 3727-0.002 3728 3729-0.018 3730*** 3731-0.002 3732 3733-0.016 3734*** 3735-0.002 3736(Table continues on the next page) 3737 373837393740===== PAGE 24 (score 52, numeric-paren 33, table-words 5, var-words 2) =====37413742146 3743 3744 3745JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 3746 3747 3748Base Model 3749 3750Model 2 3751(Partial Plans) 3752 3753Model 3 3754(BRT buffer 500mts) 3755 3756Model 4 3757(Partial Plans 3758& BRT buffer 500mts) 3759 3760Dependent variable: 3761 3762Dependent variable: 3763 3764Dependent variable: 3765 3766Dependent variable: 3767 3768Ln. Price per square meter 3769 Ln. Price per square meter 3770 Ln. Price per square meter 3771 Ln. Price per square meter 3772Location 3773 3774 3775 3776 3777 3778 3779 3780 3781 3782 3783 3784 3785 3786 3787 3788Log. Distance to CBD.72 3789-0.038 3790*** 3791-0.003 3792 3793-0.039 3794*** 3795-0.003 3796 3797-0.039 3798*** 3799-0.003 3800 3801-0.040 3802*** 3803-0.003 3804Log. Distance to nearest activity center 3805-0.049 3806*** 3807-0.003 3808 3809-0.046 3810*** 3811-0.003 3812 3813-0.050 3814*** 3815-0.003 3816 3817-0.047 3818*** 3819-0.003 3820Log. Distance to PLMB viaduct 3821-0.020 3822*** 3823-0.003 3824 3825-0.020 3826*** 3827-0.003 3828 3829-0.019 3830*** 3831-0.003 3832 3833-0.019 3834*** 3835-0.003 3836Crime 3837 3838 3839 3840 3841 3842 3843 3844 3845 3846 3847 3848 3849 3850 3851 3852Log. Homicides 3853-0.027 3854*** 3855-0.002 3856 3857-0.029 3858*** 3859-0.002 3860 3861-0.027 3862*** 3863-0.002 3864 3865-0.028 3866*** 3867-0.002 3868Log. Thefts 3869-0.033 3870*** 3871-0.004 3872 3873-0.031 3874*** 3875-0.004 3876 3877-0.034 3878*** 3879-0.004 3880 3881-0.032 3882*** 3883-0.004 3884BRT 3885 3886 3887 3888 3889 3890 3891 3892 3893 3894 3895 3896 3897 3898 3899 3900Buffer 500mts built trunk 3901 3902 3903 3904 3905 3906 3907 3908 39090.012 3910*** 3911-0.002 3912 39130.012 3914*** 3915-0.002 3916Buffer 500mts trunk under construction 3917 3918 3919 3920 3921 3922 3923 3924 3925-0.019 3926*** 3927-0.003 3928 3929-0.017 3930*** 3931-0.003 3932Buffer 500mts Carrera Séptima Corridor 3933 3934 3935 3936 3937 3938 3939 3940 39410.003 3942 3943-0.003 3944 39450.006 3946** 3947-0.003 3948Partial Plans 3949 3950 3951 3952 3953 3954 3955 3956 3957 3958 3959 3960 3961 3962 3963 3964Urban Renewal 3965 3966 3967 3968 39690.064 3970*** 3971-0.010 3972 3973 3974 3975 3976 39770.063 3978*** 3979-0.010 3980Development 3981 3982 3983 3984 39850.158 3986*** 3987-0.012 3988 3989 3990 3991 3992 39930.157 3994*** 3995-0.012 3996Constant 399714.812 *** 3998-0.049 3999 400014.792 *** 4001-0.049 4002 400314.817 *** 4004-0.049 4005 400614.793 4007*** 4008-0.049 4009Observations 4010278,393 4011 4012 278,393 4013 4014 278,393 4015 4016 278,393 4017 4018R – Squared 40190.473 4020 4021 4022 40230.474 4024 4025 4026 40270.473 4028 4029 4030 40310.474 4032 4033 4034Robust standard errors in parentheses 4035 4036 4037 4038 4039 4040 4041 4042 4043 4044 4045 4046 4047 4048 4049 4050***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1 4051 4052 4053 4054 4055 4056 4057 4058 4059 4060 4061 4062 4063 4064 4065 4066 406740684069===== PAGE 25 (score 7, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 2) =====40704071 4072 4073147 4074Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics 4075Base Model 4076Model 2 (control with partial plans) 4077Model 3 (control with BRT buffer 500mts) 4078Model 4 (control with partial plans and BRT buffer 500mts) 4079 4080Figure 3. Effects of the PLMB on real estate development prices in Bogotá by Isochrone (2006-40812023) Sources: Statistical analysis on STATA (STATA, 2024) 4082-0.304083-0.254084-0.204085-0.154086-0.104087-0.0540880.0040890.0540900.1040910.1540920.2040930.2540940.304095200640962007409720084098200940992010410020114101201241022013410320144104201541052016410620174107201841082019410920204110202141112022411220234113Coeff. 5min4114Coeff. 10min4115Coeff. 15min4116Coeff. 20min4117Creation Metro Agency4118CONPES 39004119CONPES 39454120Contract signed4121Starting construction4122-0.304123-0.254124-0.204125-0.154126-0.104127-0.0541280.0041290.0541300.1041310.1541320.2041330.2541340.304135200641362007413720084138200941392010414020114141201241422013414320144144201541452016414620174147201841482019414920204150202141512022415220234153Coeff. 5min4154Coeff. 10min4155Coeff. 15min4156Coeff. 20min4157Creation Metro Agency4158CONPES 39004159CONPES 39454160Contract signed4161Starting construction4162-0.304163-0.254164-0.204165-0.154166-0.104167-0.0541680.0041690.0541700.1041710.1541720.2041730.2541740.304175200641762007417720084178200941792010418020114181201241822013418320144184201541852016418620174187201841882019418920204190202141912022419220234193Coeff. 5min4194Coeff. 10min4195Coeff. 15min4196Coeff. 20min4197Creation Metro Agency4198CONPES 39004199CONPES 39454200Contract signed4201Starting construction4202-0.304203-0.254204-0.204205-0.154206-0.104207-0.0542080.0042090.0542100.1042110.1542120.2042130.2542140.304215200642162007421720084218200942192010422020114221201242222013422320144224201542252016422620174227201842282019422920204230202142312022423220234233Coeff. 5min4234Coeff. 10min4235Coeff. 15min4236Coeff. 20min4237Creation Metro Agency4238CONPES 39004239CONPES 39454240Contract signed4241Starting construction424242434244===== PAGE 27 (score 58, numeric-paren 0, table-words 2, var-words 12) =====42454246 4247 4248149 4249Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics 4250 4251Table 5. Descriptive statistics isochrone analysis year 2007 – L2MB 4252Year 2007 4253 4254Treatment 1 (N=2) 4255Treatment 2 (N=6) 4256Treatment 3 (N=88) 4257Treatment 4 (N=178) 4258Control (N=6,813) 4259Variable 4260Mean 4261Std. 4262Dev. 4263Min 4264Max 4265Mean 4266Std. 4267Dev. 4268Min 4269Max 4270Mean 4271Std. 4272Dev. 4273Min 4274Max 4275Mean 4276Std. 4277Dev. 4278Min 4279Max 4280Mean 4281Std. 4282Dev. 4283Min 4284Max 4285Dependent variables 4286Log. Price per 4287sqmt 428813.251 42890.197 429013.11 429113.39 429213.767 42930.874 429412.00 429514.24 429613.769 42970.794 429812.06 429914.95 430013.665 43010.443 430212.04 430314.63 430414.293 43050.619 430610.27 430716.03 4308Independent variables 4309Log. Distance 4310to L2MB 43115.300 43120.000 43135.30 43145.30 43156.136 43160.855 43174.60 43186.66 43195.520 43201.196 43211.68 43226.90 43236.361 43240.718 43250.84 43267.15 43278.157 43280.650 43295.12 43309.65 4331Log. Distance 4332to CBD. 72 43339.482 43340.000 43359.48 43369.48 43378.337 43380.694 43397.89 43409.50 43418.977 43420.420 43437.80 43449.42 43458.957 43460.511 43477.68 43489.45 43498.488 43500.704 43515.94 43529.80 4353Log. Distance 4354to nearest 4355activity center 43569.383 43570.000 43589.38 43599.38 43608.255 43610.673 43627.83 43639.40 43648.851 43650.412 43667.82 43679.32 43688.838 43690.489 43707.19 43719.34 43728.148 43730.707 43744.30 43759.59 4376Socioeconomic level 4377One 43780.000 43790.000 43800.00 43810.00 43820.000 43830.000 43840.00 43850.00 43860.000 43870.000 43880.00 43890.00 43900.000 43910.000 43920.00 43930.00 43940.000 43950.000 43960.00 43970.00 4398Two 43990.000 44000.000 44010.00 44020.00 44030.167 44040.408 44050.00 44061.00 44070.000 44080.000 44090.00 44100.00 44110.208 44120.407 44130.00 44141.00 44150.041 44160.198 44170.00 44181.00 4419Three 44201.000 44210.000 44221.00 44231.00 44240.167 44250.408 44260.00 44271.00 44280.432 44290.498 44300.00 44311.00 44320.534 44330.500 44340.00 44351.00 44360.123 44370.328 44380.00 44391.00 4440Four 44410.000 44420.000 44430.00 44440.00 44450.667 44460.516 44470.00 44481.00 44490.364 44500.484 44510.00 44521.00 44530.230 44540.422 44550.00 44561.00 44570.282 44580.450 44590.00 44601.00 4461Five 44620.000 44630.000 44640.00 44650.00 44660.000 44670.000 44680.00 44690.00 44700.102 44710.305 44720.00 44731.00 44740.022 44750.149 44760.00 44771.00 44780.232 44790.422 44800.00 44811.00 4482Six 44830.000 44840.000 44850.00 44860.00 44870.000 44880.000 44890.00 44900.00 44910.102 44920.305 44930.00 44941.00 44950.006 44960.075 44970.00 44981.00 44990.323 45000.468 45010.00 45021.00 4503Bedrooms 4504One 45050.000 45060.000 45070.00 45080.00 45090.000 45100.000 45110.00 45120.00 45130.034 45140.183 45150.00 45161.00 45170.067 45180.251 45190.00 45201.00 45210.109 45220.312 45230.00 45241.00 4525Two 45260.500 45270.707 45280.00 45291.00 45300.167 45310.408 45320.00 45331.00 45340.170 45350.378 45360.00 45371.00 45380.270 45390.445 45400.00 45411.00 45420.243 45430.429 45440.00 45451.00 4546Three 45470.000 45480.000 45490.00 45500.00 45510.667 45520.516 45530.00 45541.00 45550.750 45560.435 45570.00 45581.00 45590.596 45600.492 45610.00 45621.00 45630.589 45640.492 45650.00 45661.00 4567Four 45680.500 45690.707 45700.00 45711.00 45720.167 45730.408 45740.00 45751.00 45760.045 45770.209 45780.00 45791.00 45800.067 45810.251 45820.00 45831.00 45840.059 45850.235 45860.00 45871.00 4588Bathrooms 45891.500 45900.707 45911.00 45922.00 45931.833 45940.408 45951.00 45962.00 45972.273 45980.968 45991.00 46004.00 46011.669 46020.692 46031.00 46044.00 46052.546 46060.960 46071.00 46086.00 4609Neighborhoods attributes 4610Log. 4611Population 4612density 46130.000 46140.000 46150.00 46160.00 46174.010 46183.126 46190.00 46206.48 46214.580 46222.950 46230.00 46247.33 46254.505 46262.771 46270.00 46287.35 46294.840 46302.142 46310.00 46327.62 4633Log. Distance 4634to nearest park 46354.324 46360.000 46374.32 46384.32 46393.665 46400.936 46412.60 46424.57 46433.864 46441.075 46450.74 46465.29 46473.744 46481.695 4649-5.36 46505.93 46513.834 46521.360 4653-6.81 46545.92 4655Log. Distance 4656to nearest 4657equipment 46584.987 46590.000 46604.99 46614.99 46624.264 46630.849 46643.31 46655.54 46664.690 46670.652 46682.74 46695.34 46704.403 46710.755 46722.05 46735.64 46744.364 46750.913 4676-3.11 46777.06 4678Roads Index / 4679Ratio 4680-3.094 46810.000 4682-3.09 4683-3.09 4684-2.072 46850.518 4686-3.09 4687-1.60 4688-1.893 46890.405 4690-2.57 4691-0.99 4692-1.869 46930.673 4694-3.09 4695-0.24 4696-1.942 46970.457 4698-4.73 46991.37 4700Crime 4701Log. 4702Homicides 47034.585 47040.000 47054.59 47064.59 47073.973 47080.442 47093.69 47104.59 47114.502 47120.205 47133.69 47144.59 47154.430 47160.303 47173.69 47184.59 47193.881 47200.750 47210.69 47225.40 4723Log. Thefts 47247.385 47250.000 47267.39 47277.39 47286.554 47290.524 47306.22 47317.39 47327.193 47330.288 47346.22 47357.39 47367.106 47370.390 47386.22 47397.39 47407.102 47410.433 47424.99 47437.39 4744(Table continues on next page) 474547464747===== PAGE 28 (score 18, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 2) =====47484749150 4750 4751 4752JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 4753 4754 4755Year 2007 4756 4757Treatment 1 (N=2) 4758Treatment 2 (N=6) 4759Treatment 3 (N=88) 4760Treatment 4 (N=178) 4761Control (N=6,813) 4762Variable 4763Mean 4764Std. 4765Dev. 4766Min 4767Max 4768Mean 4769Std. 4770Dev. 4771Min 4772Max 4773Mean 4774Std. 4775Dev. 4776Min 4777Max 4778Mean 4779Std. 4780Dev. 4781Min 4782Max 4783Mean 4784Std. 4785Dev. 4786Min 4787Max 4788Type of housing 4789Micro-4790apartments 47910.000 47920.000 47930.00 47940.00 47950.000 47960.000 47970.00 47980.00 47990.000 48000.000 48010.00 48020.00 48030.000 48040.000 48050.00 48060.00 48070.000 48080.000 48090.00 48100.00 4811Affordable 4812housing 48131.000 48140.000 48151.00 48161.00 48170.167 48180.408 48190.00 48201.00 48210.193 48220.397 48230.00 48241.00 48250.213 48260.411 48270.00 48281.00 48290.047 48300.212 48310.00 48321.00 4833Market 4834housing 48350.000 48360.000 48370.00 48380.00 48390.833 48400.408 48410.00 48421.00 48430.807 48440.397 48450.00 48461.00 48470.787 48480.411 48490.00 48501.00 48510.953 48520.212 48530.00 48541.00 4855Small Area Plans 4856Urban renewal 48570.000 48580.000 48590.00 48600.00 48610.000 48620.000 48630.00 48640.00 48650.011 48660.107 48670.00 48681.00 48690.000 48700.000 48710.00 48720.00 48730.010 48740.099 48750.00 48761.00 4877Urban 4878development 48790.000 48800.000 48810.00 48820.00 48830.000 48840.000 48850.00 48860.00 48870.000 48880.000 48890.00 48900.00 48910.000 48920.000 48930.00 48940.00 48950.007 48960.082 48970.00 48981.00 4899BRT 4900Buffer 500-4901meter built 4902trunk 49030.000 49040.000 49050.00 49060.00 49070.667 49080.516 49090.00 49101.00 49110.170 49120.378 49130.00 49141.00 49150.146 49160.354 49170.00 49181.00 49190.325 49200.468 49210.00 49221.00 4923Buffer 500-4924meter trunk 4925under 4926construction 49270.000 49280.000 49290.00 49300.00 49310.000 49320.000 49330.00 49340.00 49350.091 49360.289 49370.00 49381.00 49390.045 49400.208 49410.00 49421.00 49430.116 49440.320 49450.00 49461.00 4947Buffer 500-4948meter Carrera 4949Séptima 4950Corridor 49510.000 49520.000 49530.00 49540.00 49550.000 49560.000 49570.00 49580.00 49590.000 49600.000 49610.00 49620.00 49630.000 49640.000 49650.00 49660.00 49670.226 49680.418 49690.00 49701.00 4971 497249734974===== PAGE 29 (score 58, numeric-paren 0, table-words 2, var-words 12) =====49754976 4977 4978151 4979Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics 4980 4981Table 6. Descriptive statistics isochrone analysis year 2023 – L2MB 4982Year 2023 4983 4984Treatment 1 (N=31) 4985Treatment 2 (N=52) 4986Treatment 3 (N=327) 4987Treatment 4 (N=549) 4988Control (N=21,383) 4989Variable 4990Mean 4991Std. 4992Dev. 4993Min 4994Max 4995Mean 4996Std. 4997Dev. 4998Min 4999Max 5000Mean 5001Std. 5002Dev. 5003Min 5004Max 5005Mean 5006Std. 5007Dev. 5008Min 5009Max 5010Mean 5011Std. 5012Dev. 5013Min 5014Max 5015Dependent variables 5016Log. Price per 5017sqmt 501815.138 0.840 501913.11 502015.99 502115.020 50220.679 502313.79 502416.05 502514.783 50260.623 502713.06 502815.74 502914.513 50300.818 503112.88 503216.03 503315.147 50340.691 503510.27 503617.13 5037Independent variables 5038 5039 5040 5041 5042 5043 5044 5045 5046 5047 5048 5049 5050 5051 5052 5053 5054 5055 5056 5057Log. Distance to 5058L2MB 50594.400 0.847 50602.38 50615.47 50625.655 50631.102 50643.53 50656.70 50665.991 50671.069 50681.68 50696.90 50706.363 50710.637 50720.84 50737.36 50748.198 50750.648 50762.93 50779.87 5078Log. Distance to 5079CBD. 72 50807.738 1.224 50816.70 50829.49 50838.419 50840.616 50857.84 50869.50 50878.760 50880.438 50897.80 50909.42 50918.867 50920.449 50937.68 50949.46 50958.506 50960.670 50975.54 50989.87 5099Log. Distance to 5100nearest activity 5101center 51027.864 1.027 51037.10 51049.39 51058.316 51060.597 51077.72 51089.40 51098.626 51100.441 51117.82 51129.32 51138.739 51140.427 51157.19 51169.35 51178.136 51180.700 51194.30 51209.75 5121Socioeconomic level 5122 5123 5124 5125 5126 5127 5128 5129 5130 5131 5132 5133 5134 5135 5136 5137 5138 5139 5140 5141One 51420.000 0.000 51430.00 51440.00 51450.000 51460.000 51470.00 51480.00 51490.000 51500.000 51510.00 51520.00 51530.000 51540.000 51550.00 51560.00 51570.000 51580.018 51590.00 51601.00 5161Two 51620.258 0.445 51630.00 51641.00 51650.154 51660.364 51670.00 51681.00 51690.138 51700.345 51710.00 51721.00 51730.239 51740.427 51750.00 51761.00 51770.041 51780.199 51790.00 51801.00 5181Three 51820.194 0.402 51830.00 51841.00 51850.731 51860.448 51870.00 51881.00 51890.422 51900.495 51910.00 51921.00 51930.594 51940.492 51950.00 51961.00 51970.165 51980.371 51990.00 52001.00 5201Four 52020.548 0.506 52030.00 52041.00 52050.115 52060.323 52070.00 52081.00 52090.385 52100.487 52110.00 52121.00 52130.137 52140.344 52150.00 52161.00 52170.261 52180.439 52190.00 52201.00 5221Five 52220.000 0.000 52230.00 52240.00 52250.000 52260.000 52270.00 52280.00 52290.028 52300.164 52310.00 52321.00 52330.029 52340.168 52350.00 52361.00 52370.249 52380.433 52390.00 52401.00 5241Six 52420.000 0.000 52430.00 52440.00 52450.000 52460.000 52470.00 52480.00 52490.028 52500.164 52510.00 52521.00 52530.002 52540.043 52550.00 52561.00 52570.283 52580.451 52590.00 52601.00 5261Bedrooms 5262 5263 5264 5265 5266 5267 5268 5269 5270 5271 5272 5273 5274 5275 5276 5277 5278 5279 5280 5281 5282One 52830.323 0.475 52840.00 52851.00 52860.269 52870.448 52880.00 52891.00 52900.086 52910.280 52920.00 52931.00 52940.144 52950.351 52960.00 52971.00 52980.225 52990.417 53000.00 53011.00 5302Two 53030.323 0.475 53040.00 53051.00 53060.288 53070.457 53080.00 53091.00 53100.242 53110.429 53120.00 53131.00 53140.352 53150.478 53160.00 53171.00 53180.293 53190.455 53200.00 53211.00 5322Three 53230.323 0.475 53240.00 53251.00 53260.404 53270.495 53280.00 53291.00 53300.661 53310.474 53320.00 53331.00 53340.483 53350.500 53360.00 53371.00 53380.456 53390.498 53400.00 53411.00 5342Four 53430.032 0.180 53440.00 53451.00 53460.038 53470.194 53480.00 53491.00 53500.012 53510.110 53520.00 53531.00 53540.022 53550.146 53560.00 53571.00 53580.027 53590.162 53600.00 53611.00 5362Bathrooms 53631.581 0.620 53641.00 53653.00 53661.692 53670.544 53681.00 53693.00 53702.168 53710.854 53721.00 53734.00 53741.628 53750.666 53761.00 53775.00 53782.364 53790.976 53800.00 53818.00 5382Neighborhoods attributes 5383Log. Population 5384density 53854.361 1.621 53860.00 53876.52 53885.563 53891.643 53900.00 53916.48 53925.406 53932.216 53940.00 53957.33 53964.929 53972.499 5398-3.73 53997.35 54004.683 54012.121 5402-1.77 54037.62 5404Log. Distance to 5405nearest park 54064.812 0.758 54073.38 54085.61 54093.917 54102.200 5411-4.10 54125.35 54133.939 54140.981 54150.74 54165.59 54174.008 54181.300 5419-5.36 54205.93 54214.024 54221.262 5423-6.81 54246.39 5425Log. Distance to 5426nearest 5427equipment 54284.366 0.590 54293.55 54305.34 54314.353 54320.943 54331.33 54345.54 54354.584 54360.716 54372.07 54385.76 54394.352 54400.776 54412.05 54426.06 54434.282 54440.946 5445-3.11 54467.16 5447Roads Index / 5448Ratio 5449-2.124 0.641 5450-3.09 5451-1.40 5452-1.983 54530.417 5454-3.09 5455-1.60 5456-1.819 54570.298 5458-2.98 5459-0.99 5460-1.918 54610.605 5462-3.50 5463-0.24 5464-1.926 54650.450 5466-5.12 54671.37 5468Crime 5469Log. Homicides 54702.839 0.832 54712.08 54724.03 54733.335 54740.531 54752.83 54764.03 54773.778 54780.327 54792.83 54804.03 54813.767 54820.369 54832.83 54844.03 54853.142 54860.741 54871.10 54884.93 5489Log. Thefts 54909.035 0.322 54918.59 54929.45 54938.965 54940.394 54958.59 54969.45 54979.295 54980.238 54998.59 55009.45 55019.283 55020.268 55038.59 55049.45 55058.932 55060.360 55076.63 55089.45 5509(Table continues on next page) 5510 5511 551255135514===== PAGE 30 (score 18, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 2) =====55155516152 5517 5518 5519JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 5520 5521 5522Year 2023 5523 5524Treatment 1 (N=31) 5525Treatment 2 (N=52) 5526Treatment 3 (N=327) 5527Treatment 4 (N=549) 5528Control (N=21,383) 5529Variable 5530Mean 5531Std. 5532Dev. 5533Min 5534Max 5535Mean 5536Std. 5537Dev. 5538Min 5539Max 5540Mean 5541Std. 5542Dev. 5543Min 5544Max 5545Mean 5546Std. 5547Dev. 5548Min 5549Max 5550Mean 5551Std. 5552Dev. 5553Min 5554Max 5555Type of housing 5556Micro-5557apartments 55580.000 0.000 55590.00 55600.00 55610.000 55620.000 55630.00 55640.00 55650.000 55660.000 55670.00 55680.00 55690.002 55700.043 55710.00 55721.00 55730.006 55740.077 55750.00 55761.00 5577Affordable 5578housing 55790.323 0.475 55800.00 55811.00 55820.154 55830.364 55840.00 55851.00 55860.208 55870.406 55880.00 55891.00 55900.311 55910.464 55920.00 55931.00 55940.070 55950.255 55960.00 55971.00 5598Market housing 55990.677 0.475 56000.00 56011.00 56020.846 56030.364 56040.00 56051.00 56060.792 56070.406 56080.00 56091.00 56100.687 56110.464 56120.00 56131.00 56140.924 56150.265 56160.00 56171.00 5618Small Area Plans 5619Urban renewal 56200.000 0.000 56210.00 56220.00 56230.000 56240.000 56250.00 56260.00 56270.003 56280.055 56290.00 56301.00 56310.000 56320.000 56330.00 56340.00 56350.016 56360.124 56370.00 56381.00 5639Urban 5640development 56410.000 0.000 56420.00 56430.00 56440.000 56450.000 56460.00 56470.00 56480.000 56490.000 56500.00 56510.00 56520.047 56530.213 56540.00 56551.00 56560.007 56570.083 56580.00 56591.00 5660BRT 5661Buffer 500-5662meter built trunk 56630.613 0.495 56640.00 56651.00 56660.519 56670.505 56680.00 56691.00 56700.223 56710.417 56720.00 56731.00 56740.281 56750.450 56760.00 56771.00 56780.335 56790.472 56800.00 56811.00 5682Buffer 500-5683meter trunk 5684under 5685construction 56860.097 0.301 56870.00 56881.00 56890.000 56900.000 56910.00 56920.00 56930.294 56940.456 56950.00 56961.00 56970.046 56980.209 56990.00 57001.00 57010.107 57020.309 57030.00 57041.00 5705Buffer 500-5706meter Carrera 5707Séptima 5708Corridor 57090.000 0.000 57100.00 57110.00 57120.000 57130.000 57140.00 57150.00 57160.000 57170.000 57180.00 57190.00 57200.000 57210.000 57220.00 57230.00 57240.193 57250.395 57260.00 57271.00 5728 572957305731===== PAGE 32 (score 94, numeric-paren 68, table-words 6, var-words 1) =====57325733154 5734 5735 5736JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 5737 5738Table 7. Hedonic price model of the anticipation effects of the future L2MB on real estate development prices between 2007 and 2023 in isochrone analysis (N=278,393) 5739 5740Base Model 5741 5742Model 2 5743Urban renewal partial plans 5744 5745Model 3 5746BRT buffer 500 mts 5747 5748Model 4 5749Urban renewal partial plans 5750& BRT buffer 500 mts 5751 5752Dependent variable: 5753 5754Dependent variable: 5755 5756Dependent variable: 5757 5758Dependent variable: 5759Ln. Price per square meter 5760Ln. Price per square meter 5761Ln. Price per square meter 5762Ln. Price per square meter 5763Year 5764 5765 5766 5767 5768 5769 5770 5771 5772 5773 5774 5775 5776 5777 5778 57792007 57800.020 5781** 5782-0.009 5783 57840.020 5785** 5786-0.009 5787 57880.020 5789** 5790-0.009 5791 57920.020 5793** 5794-0.009 57952008 57960.143 5797*** 5798-0.008 5799 58000.142 5801*** 5802-0.008 5803 58040.143 5805*** 5806-0.008 5807 58080.142 5809*** 5810-0.008 58112009 58120.221 5813*** 5814-0.008 5815 58160.221 5817*** 5818-0.008 5819 58200.222 5821*** 5822-0.008 5823 58240.221 5825*** 5826-0.008 58272010 58280.278 5829*** 5830-0.008 5831 58320.277 5833*** 5834-0.008 5835 58360.276 5837*** 5838-0.008 5839 58400.276 5841*** 5842-0.008 58432011 58440.340 5845*** 5846-0.008 5847 58480.338 5849*** 5850-0.008 5851 58520.337 5853*** 5854-0.008 5855 58560.335 5857*** 5858-0.008 58592012 58600.390 5861*** 5862-0.008 5863 58640.388 5865*** 5866-0.008 5867 58680.387 5869*** 5870-0.008 5871 58720.385 5873*** 5874-0.008 58752013 58760.466 5877*** 5878-0.008 5879 58800.463 5881*** 5882-0.008 5883 58840.462 5885*** 5886-0.008 5887 58880.459 5889*** 5890-0.008 58912014 58920.521 5893*** 5894-0.008 5895 58960.518 5897*** 5898-0.008 5899 59000.516 5901*** 5902-0.008 5903 59040.513 5905*** 5906-0.008 59072015 59080.553 5909*** 5910-0.008 5911 59120.549 5913*** 5914-0.008 5915 59160.548 5917*** 5918-0.008 5919 59200.545 5921*** 5922-0.008 59232016 59240.654 5925*** 5926-0.008 5927 59280.649 5929*** 5930-0.008 5931 59320.647 5933*** 5934-0.008 5935 59360.643 5937*** 5938-0.008 59392017 59400.706 5941*** 5942-0.010 5943 59440.699 5945*** 5946-0.010 5947 59480.695 5949*** 5950-0.010 5951 59520.689 5953*** 5954-0.010 59552018 59560.743 5957*** 5958-0.011 5959 59600.735 5961*** 5962-0.011 5963 59640.730 5965*** 5966-0.011 5967 59680.723 5969*** 5970-0.011 59712019 59720.778 5973*** 5974-0.012 5975 59760.769 5977*** 5978-0.012 5979 59800.763 5981*** 5982-0.012 5983 59840.756 5985*** 5986-0.012 59872020 59880.793 5989*** 5990-0.010 5991 59920.786 5993*** 5994-0.010 5995 59960.782 5997*** 5998-0.010 5999 60000.776 6001*** 6002-0.010 60032021 60040.827 6005*** 6006-0.011 6007 60080.820 6009*** 6010-0.011 6011 60120.815 6013*** 6014-0.011 6015 60160.808 6017*** 6018-0.011 60192022 60200.864 6021*** 6022-0.012 6023 60240.855 6025*** 6026-0.012 6027 60280.850 6029*** 6030-0.012 6031 60320.842 6033*** 6034-0.012 60352023 60360.868 6037*** 6038-0.011 6039 60400.860 6041*** 6042-0.011 6043 60440.855 6045*** 6046-0.011 6047 60480.848 6049*** 6050-0.011 6051(Table continues on next page) 605260536054===== PAGE 33 (score 76, numeric-paren 50, table-words 5, var-words 2) =====60556056 6057 6058155 6059Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics 6060 6061 6062Base Model 6063 6064Model 2 6065Urban renewal partial plans 6066 6067Model 3 6068BRT buffer 500 mts 6069 6070Model 4 6071Urban renewal partial plans 6072& BRT buffer 500 mts 6073 6074Dependent variable: 6075 6076Dependent variable: 6077 6078Dependent variable: 6079 6080Dependent variable: 6081Ln. Price per square meter 6082Ln. Price per square meter 6083Ln. Price per square meter 6084Ln. Price per square meter 6085Interaction isochrone 5min + year 6086 6087 6088 6089 6090 6091 6092 6093 6094 6095 6096 6097 6098 6099 6100 61012006*isochrone 5min SLMB 61020.227 6103*** 6104-0.069 6105 61060.235 6107*** 6108-0.070 6109 61100.247 6111*** 6112-0.071 6113 61140.254 6115*** 6116-0.071 61172007*isochrone 5min SLMB 61180.271 6119*** 6120-0.081 6121 61220.278 6123*** 6124-0.082 6125 61260.292 6127*** 6128-0.082 6129 61300.298 6131*** 6132-0.083 61332008*isochrone 5min SLMB 61340.073 6135 6136-0.067 6137 61380.072 6139 6140-0.068 6141 61420.092 6143 6144-0.068 6145 61460.090 6147 6148-0.069 61492009*isochrone 5min SLMB 61500.041 6151 6152-0.066 6153 61540.040 6155 6156-0.067 6157 61580.059 6159 6160-0.066 6161 61620.057 6163 6164-0.067 61652010*isochrone 5min SLMB 6166-0.152 6167* 6168-0.091 6169 6170-0.149 6171* 6172-0.090 6173 6174-0.132 6175 6176-0.091 6177 6178-0.130 6179 6180-0.091 61812011*isochrone 5min SLMB 61820.200 6183*** 6184-0.078 6185 61860.205 6187*** 6188-0.078 6189 61900.220 6191*** 6192-0.078 6193 61940.223 6195*** 6196-0.079 61972012*isochrone 5min SLMB 61980.188 6199** 6200-0.087 6201 62020.193 6203** 6204-0.087 6205 62060.207 6207** 6208-0.087 6209 62100.210 6211** 6212-0.088 62132013*isochrone 5min SLMB 62140.070 6215 6216-0.104 6217 62180.074 6219 6220-0.104 6221 62220.088 6223 6224-0.105 6225 62260.091 6227 6228-0.105 62292014*isochrone 5min SLMB 62300.099 6231 6232-0.082 6233 62340.103 6235 6236-0.083 6237 62380.117 6239 6240-0.083 6241 62420.121 6243 6244-0.083 62452015*isochrone 5min SLMB 62460.054 6247 6248-0.081 6249 62500.059 6251 6252-0.081 6253 62540.073 6255 6256-0.081 6257 62580.076 6259 6260-0.082 62612016*isochrone 5min SLMB 62620.248 6263*** 6264-0.075 6265 62660.253 6267*** 6268-0.075 6269 62700.259 6271*** 6272-0.074 6273 62740.264 6275*** 6276-0.075 62772017*isochrone 5min SLMB 62780.200 6279*** 6280-0.074 6281 62820.206 6283*** 6284-0.075 6285 62860.211 6287*** 6288-0.074 6289 62900.216 6291*** 6292-0.074 62932018*isochrone 5min SLMB 62940.171 6295** 6296-0.076 6297 62980.177 6299** 6300-0.076 6301 63020.183 6303** 6304-0.075 6305 63060.188 6307** 6308-0.075 63092019*isochrone 5min SLMB 63100.235 6311*** 6312-0.076 6313 63140.241 6315*** 6316-0.076 6317 63180.248 6319*** 6320-0.075 6321 63220.254 6323*** 6324-0.076 63252020*isochrone 5min SLMB 63260.256 6327*** 6328-0.076 6329 63300.262 6331*** 6332-0.077 6333 63340.269 6335*** 6336-0.076 6337 63380.274 6339*** 6340-0.076 63412021*isochrone 5min SLMB 63420.236 6343*** 6344-0.076 6345 63460.242 6347*** 6348-0.077 6349 63500.249 6351*** 6352-0.076 6353 63540.255 6355*** 6356-0.076 63572022*isochrone 5min SLMB 63580.216 6359*** 6360-0.076 6361 63620.222 6363*** 6364-0.077 6365 63660.229 6367*** 6368-0.076 6369 63700.234 6371*** 6372-0.076 63732023*isochrone 5min SLMB 63740.201 6375*** 6376-0.076 6377 63780.208 6379*** 6380-0.076 6381 63820.214 6383*** 6384-0.076 6385 63860.220 6387*** 6388-0.076 6389(Table continues on next page) 639063916392===== PAGE 34 (score 87, numeric-paren 63, table-words 5, var-words 0) =====63936394156 6395 6396 6397JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 6398 6399 6400Base Model 6401 6402Model 2 6403Urban renewal partial plans 6404 6405Model 3 6406BRT buffer 500 mts 6407 6408Model 4 6409Urban renewal partial plans 6410& BRT buffer 500 mts 6411 6412Dependent variable: 6413 6414Dependent variable: 6415 6416Dependent variable: 6417 6418Dependent variable: 6419 6420Ln. Price per square meter 6421Ln. Price per square meter 6422Ln. Price per square meter 6423Ln. Price per square meter 6424Interaction isochrone 10min + year 6425 6426 6427 6428 6429 6430 6431 6432 6433 6434 6435 6436 6437 6438 6439 64402006*isochrone 10min SLMB 64410.319 6442*** 6443-0.041 6444 64450.325 6446*** 6447-0.041 6448 64490.337 6450*** 6451-0.041 6452 64530.341 6454*** 6455-0.041 64562007*isochrone 10min SLMB 64570.238 6458*** 6459-0.053 6460 64610.243 6462*** 6463-0.053 6464 64650.256 6466*** 6467-0.053 6468 64690.260 6470*** 6471-0.053 64722008*isochrone 10min SLMB 64730.141 6474*** 6475-0.042 6476 64770.146 6478*** 6479-0.042 6480 64810.160 6482*** 6483-0.042 6484 64850.163 6486*** 6487-0.042 64882009*isochrone 10min SLMB 64890.008 6490 6491-0.048 6492 64930.012 6494 6495-0.048 6496 64970.024 6498 6499-0.049 6500 65010.027 6502 6503-0.049 65042010*isochrone 10min SLMB 65050.100 6506*** 6507-0.036 6508 65090.104 6510*** 6511-0.036 6512 65130.116 6514*** 6515-0.036 6516 65170.119 6518*** 6519-0.036 65202011*isochrone 10min SLMB 65210.053 6522 6523-0.035 6524 65250.058 6526* 6527-0.035 6528 65290.070 6530** 6531-0.035 6532 65330.074 6534** 6535-0.035 65362012*isochrone 10min SLMB 65370.023 6538 6539-0.047 6540 65410.028 6542 6543-0.046 6544 65450.039 6546 6547-0.047 6548 65490.043 6550 6551-0.047 65522013*isochrone 10min SLMB 65530.140 6554*** 6555-0.039 6556 65570.145 6558*** 6559-0.039 6560 65610.156 6562*** 6563-0.039 6564 65650.159 6566*** 6567-0.039 65682014*isochrone 10min SLMB 65690.085 6570** 6571-0.038 6572 65730.090 6574** 6575-0.038 6576 65770.101 6578*** 6579-0.038 6580 65810.104 6582*** 6583-0.038 65842015*isochrone 10min SLMB 65850.159 6586*** 6587-0.039 6588 65890.164 6590*** 6591-0.039 6592 65930.173 6594*** 6595-0.039 6596 65970.177 6598*** 6599-0.039 66002016*isochrone 10min SLMB 66010.120 6602*** 6603-0.037 6604 66050.127 6606*** 6607-0.037 6608 66090.134 6610*** 6611-0.037 6612 66130.141 6614*** 6615-0.037 66162017*isochrone 10min SLMB 66170.138 6618*** 6619-0.038 6620 66210.145 6622*** 6623-0.038 6624 66250.152 6626*** 6627-0.038 6628 66290.159 6630*** 6631-0.038 66322018*isochrone 10min SLMB 66330.187 6634*** 6635-0.037 6636 66370.194 6638*** 6639-0.037 6640 66410.200 6642*** 6643-0.037 6644 66450.206 6646*** 6647-0.037 66482019*isochrone 10min SLMB 66490.169 6650*** 6651-0.037 6652 66530.177 6654*** 6655-0.037 6656 66570.182 6658*** 6659-0.037 6660 66610.189 6662*** 6663-0.037 66642020*isochrone 10min SLMB 66650.162 6666*** 6667-0.037 6668 66690.169 6670*** 6671-0.037 6672 66730.175 6674*** 6675-0.037 6676 66770.181 6678*** 6679-0.037 66802021*isochrone 10min SLMB 66810.167 6682*** 6683-0.036 6684 66850.175 6686*** 6687-0.036 6688 66890.179 6690*** 6691-0.035 6692 66930.186 6694*** 6695-0.035 66962022*isochrone 10min SLMB 66970.172 6698*** 6699-0.035 6700 67010.180 6702*** 6703-0.035 6704 67050.185 6706*** 6707-0.035 6708 67090.192 6710*** 6711-0.035 67122023*isochrone 10min SLMB 67130.173 6714*** 6715-0.036 6716 67170.181 6718*** 6719-0.036 6720 67210.185 6722*** 6723-0.036 6724 67250.193 6726*** 6727-0.036 6728(Table continues on next page) 672967306731===== PAGE 35 (score 94, numeric-paren 68, table-words 5, var-words 2) =====67326733 6734 6735157 6736Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics 6737 6738 6739Base Model 6740 6741Model 2 6742Urban renewal partial plans 6743 6744Model 3 6745BRT buffer 500 mts 6746 6747Model 4 6748Urban renewal partial plans 6749& BRT buffer 500 mts 6750 6751Dependent variable: 6752 6753Dependent variable: 6754 6755Dependent variable: 6756 6757Dependent variable: 6758 6759Ln. Price per square meter 6760 Ln. Price per square meter 6761 Ln. Price per square meter 6762 Ln. Price per square meter 6763Interaction isochrone 15min + year 6764 6765 6766 6767 6768 6769 6770 6771 6772 6773 6774 6775 6776 6777 6778 67792006*isochrone 15min SLMB 67800.084 6781** 6782-0.035 6783 67840.088 6785** 6786-0.035 6787 67880.095 6789*** 6790-0.035 6791 67920.098 6793*** 6794-0.035 67952007*isochrone 15min SLMB 6796-0.067 6797 6798-0.051 6799 6800-0.062 6801 6802-0.051 6803 6804-0.056 6805 6806-0.051 6807 6808-0.052 6809 6810-0.051 68112008*isochrone 15min SLMB 68120.074 6813** 6814-0.032 6815 68160.079 6817** 6818-0.032 6819 68200.084 6821*** 6822-0.032 6823 68240.089 6825*** 6826-0.032 68272009*isochrone 15min SLMB 68280.149 6829*** 6830-0.029 6831 68320.154 6833*** 6834-0.029 6835 68360.161 6837*** 6838-0.029 6839 68400.166 6841*** 6842-0.030 68432010*isochrone 15min SLMB 68440.071 6845** 6846-0.035 6847 68480.076 6849** 6850-0.035 6851 68520.084 6853** 6854-0.035 6855 68560.087 6857** 6858-0.035 68592011*isochrone 15min SLMB 68600.167 6861*** 6862-0.026 6863 68640.173 6865*** 6866-0.026 6867 68680.183 6869*** 6870-0.026 6871 68720.188 6873*** 6874-0.026 68752012*isochrone 15min SLMB 68760.219 6877*** 6878-0.026 6879 68800.224 6881*** 6882-0.026 6883 68840.233 6885*** 6886-0.026 6887 68880.237 6889*** 6890-0.026 68912013*isochrone 15min SLMB 68920.166 6893*** 6894-0.026 6895 68960.171 6897*** 6898-0.026 6899 69000.180 6901*** 6902-0.026 6903 69040.184 6905*** 6906-0.027 69072014*isochrone 15min SLMB 69080.136 6909*** 6910-0.026 6911 69120.142 6913*** 6914-0.026 6915 69160.151 6917*** 6918-0.026 6919 69200.156 6921*** 6922-0.026 69232015*isochrone 15min SLMB 69240.123 6925*** 6926-0.030 6927 69280.129 6929*** 6930-0.030 6931 69320.139 6933*** 6934-0.030 6935 69360.144 6937*** 6938-0.030 69392016*isochrone 15min SLMB 69400.168 6941*** 6942-0.026 6943 69440.175 6945*** 6946-0.026 6947 69480.182 6949*** 6950-0.026 6951 69520.188 6953*** 6954-0.026 69552017*isochrone 15min SLMB 69560.181 6957*** 6958-0.026 6959 69600.188 6961*** 6962-0.026 6963 69640.196 6965*** 6966-0.026 6967 69680.201 6969*** 6970-0.026 69712018*isochrone 15min SLMB 69720.178 6973*** 6974-0.026 6975 69760.184 6977*** 6978-0.026 6979 69800.191 6981*** 6982-0.026 6983 69840.196 6985*** 6986-0.026 69872019*isochrone 15min SLMB 69880.168 6989*** 6990-0.026 6991 69920.175 6993*** 6994-0.026 6995 69960.181 6997*** 6998-0.026 6999 70000.187 7001*** 7002-0.026 70032020*isochrone 15min SLMB 70040.164 7005*** 7006-0.026 7007 70080.171 7009*** 7010-0.026 7011 70120.177 7013*** 7014-0.026 7015 70160.182 7017*** 7018-0.026 70192021*isochrone 15min SLMB 70200.131 7021*** 7022-0.026 7023 70240.137 7025*** 7026-0.026 7027 70280.144 7029*** 7030-0.026 7031 70320.149 7033*** 7034-0.026 70352022*isochrone 15min SLMB 70360.119 7037*** 7038-0.026 7039 70400.125 7041*** 7042-0.026 7043 70440.132 7045*** 7046-0.026 7047 70480.137 7049*** 7050-0.026 70512023*isochrone 15min SLMB 70520.124 7053*** 7054-0.026 7055 70560.128 7057*** 7058-0.026 7059 70600.136 7061*** 7062-0.026 7063 70640.139 7065*** 7066-0.026 7067(Table continues on next page) 706870697070===== PAGE 36 (score 60, numeric-paren 36, table-words 5, var-words 0) =====70717072158 7073 7074 7075JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 7076 7077 7078Base Model 7079 7080Model 2 7081Urban renewal partial plans 7082 7083Model 3 7084BRT buffer 500 mts 7085 7086Model 4 7087Urban renewal partial plans 7088& BRT buffer 500 mts 7089 7090Dependent variable: 7091 7092Dependent variable: 7093 7094Dependent variable: 7095 7096Dependent variable: 7097 7098Ln. Price per square meter 7099 Ln. Price per square meter 7100 Ln. Price per square meter 7101 Ln. Price per square meter 7102Interaction isochrone 20min + year 7103 7104 7105 7106 7107 7108 7109 7110 7111 7112 7113 7114 7115 7116 7117 71182006*isochrone 20min SLMB 7119-0.097 7120*** 7121-0.036 7122 7123-0.094 7124*** 7125-0.036 7126 7127-0.094 7128*** 7129-0.036 7130 7131-0.091 7132** 7133-0.036 71342007*isochrone 20min SLMB 71350.047 7136* 7137-0.024 7138 71390.050 7140** 7141-0.024 7142 71430.049 7144** 7145-0.024 7146 71470.053 7148** 7149-0.024 71502008*isochrone 20min SLMB 7151-0.052 7152** 7153-0.023 7154 7155-0.049 7156** 7157-0.023 7158 7159-0.051 7160** 7161-0.023 7162 7163-0.048 7164** 7165-0.023 71662009*isochrone 20min SLMB 7167-0.067 7168*** 7169-0.020 7170 7171-0.064 7172*** 7173-0.020 7174 7175-0.066 7176*** 7177-0.020 7178 7179-0.063 7180*** 7181-0.020 71822010*isochrone 20min SLMB 71830.006 7184 7185-0.020 7186 71870.011 7188 7189-0.020 7190 71910.008 7192 7193-0.019 7194 71950.012 7196 7197-0.019 71982011*isochrone 20min SLMB 7199-0.085 7200*** 7201-0.020 7202 7203-0.081 7204*** 7205-0.020 7206 7207-0.083 7208*** 7209-0.020 7210 7211-0.080 7212*** 7213-0.020 72142012*isochrone 20min SLMB 7215-0.047 7216** 7217-0.022 7218 7219-0.043 7220** 7221-0.022 7222 7223-0.046 7224** 7225-0.022 7226 7227-0.042 7228* 7229-0.022 72302013*isochrone 20min SLMB 7231-0.119 7232*** 7233-0.022 7234 7235-0.116 7236*** 7237-0.022 7238 7239-0.118 7240*** 7241-0.022 7242 7243-0.114 7244*** 7245-0.022 72462014*isochrone 20min SLMB 7247-0.053 7248** 7249-0.023 7250 7251-0.049 7252** 7253-0.023 7254 7255-0.052 7256** 7257-0.023 7258 7259-0.049 7260** 7261-0.023 72622015*isochrone 20min SLMB 7263-0.038 7264 7265-0.024 7266 7267-0.036 7268 7269-0.024 7270 7271-0.038 7272 7273-0.024 7274 7275-0.035 7276 7277-0.024 72782016*isochrone 20min SLMB 7279-0.023 7280 7281-0.024 7282 7283-0.025 7284 7285-0.024 7286 7287-0.023 7288 7289-0.024 7290 7291-0.025 7292 7293-0.024 72942017*isochrone 20min SLMB 7295-0.032 7296 7297-0.025 7298 7299-0.034 7300 7301-0.024 7302 7303-0.033 7304 7305-0.025 7306 7307-0.034 7308 7309-0.024 73102018*isochrone 20min SLMB 7311-0.041 7312* 7313-0.025 7314 7315-0.042 7316* 7317-0.024 7318 7319-0.041 7320* 7321-0.024 7322 7323-0.042 7324* 7325-0.024 73262019*isochrone 20min SLMB 7327-0.034 7328 7329-0.025 7330 7331-0.037 7332 7333-0.024 7334 7335-0.035 7336 7337-0.025 7338 7339-0.038 7340 7341-0.024 73422020*isochrone 20min SLMB 7343-0.030 7344 7345-0.025 7346 7347-0.034 7348 7349-0.024 7350 7351-0.031 7352 7353-0.024 7354 7355-0.034 7356 7357-0.024 73582021*isochrone 20min SLMB 73590.007 7360 7361-0.024 7362 73630.004 7364 7365-0.024 7366 73670.005 7368 7369-0.024 7370 73710.003 7372 7373-0.024 73742022*isochrone 20min SLMB 7375-0.014 7376 7377-0.024 7378 7379-0.016 7380 7381-0.024 7382 7383-0.015 7384 7385-0.024 7386 7387-0.017 7388 7389-0.024 73902023*isochrone 20min SLMB 7391-0.013 7392 7393-0.025 7394 7395-0.015 7396 7397-0.024 7398 7399-0.015 7400 7401-0.025 7402 7403-0.017 7404 7405-0.024 7406(Table continues on next page) 740774087409===== PAGE 37 (score 88, numeric-paren 56, table-words 5, var-words 10) =====74107411 7412 7413159 7414Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics 7415 7416 7417Base Model 7418 7419Model 2 7420Urban renewal partial plans 7421 7422Model 3 7423BRT buffer 500 mts 7424 7425Model 4 7426Urban renewal partial plans 7427& BRT buffer 500 mts 7428 7429Dependent variable: 7430 7431Dependent variable: 7432 7433Dependent variable: 7434 7435Dependent variable: 7436 7437Ln. Price per square meter 7438Ln. Price per square meter 7439Ln. Price per square meter 7440Ln. Price per square meter 7441Bedrooms 7442 7443 7444 7445 7446 7447 7448 7449 7450 7451 7452 7453 7454 7455 7456 74571 74580.824 7459*** 7460-0.007 7461 74620.824 7463*** 7464-0.007 7465 74660.823 7467*** 7468-0.007 7469 74700.823 7471*** 7472-0.007 74732 74740.555 7475*** 7476-0.006 7477 74780.556 7479*** 7480-0.006 7481 74820.554 7483*** 7484-0.006 7485 74860.554 7487*** 7488-0.006 74893 74900.333 7491*** 7492-0.006 7493 74940.334 7495*** 7496-0.006 7497 74980.333 7499*** 7500-0.006 7501 75020.333 7503*** 7504-0.006 7505Bathrooms 75060.185 7507*** 7508-0.002 7509 75100.184 7511*** 7512-0.002 7513 75140.186 7515*** 7516-0.002 7517 75180.185 7519*** 7520-0.002 7521Housing type 7522 7523 7524 7525 7526 7527 7528 7529 7530 7531 7532 7533 7534 7535 7536 7537Market housing (reference) 7538 7539 7540 7541 7542 7543 7544 7545 7546 7547 7548 7549 7550 7551 7552 7553Micro-apartments 75540.564 7555*** 7556-0.010 7557 75580.563 7559*** 7560-0.010 7561 75620.556 7563*** 7564-0.010 7565 75660.555 7567*** 7568-0.010 7569Affordable housing 7570-0.196 7571*** 7572-0.005 7573 7574-0.197 7575*** 7576-0.005 7577 7578-0.193 7579*** 7580-0.005 7581 7582-0.194 7583*** 7584-0.005 7585Socioeconomic Level (1 reference) 7586 7587 7588 7589 7590 7591 7592 7593 7594 7595 7596 7597 7598 7599 7600 76012 7602-0.842 7603*** 7604-0.029 7605 7606-0.845 7607*** 7608-0.029 7609 7610-0.840 7611*** 7612-0.029 7613 7614-0.843 7615*** 7616-0.029 76173 7618-0.372 7619*** 7620-0.029 7621 7622-0.375 7623*** 7624-0.029 7625 7626-0.373 7627*** 7628-0.029 7629 7630-0.376 7631*** 7632-0.029 76334 7634-0.210 7635*** 7636-0.029 7637 7638-0.215 7639*** 7640-0.029 7641 7642-0.213 7643*** 7644-0.029 7645 7646-0.217 7647*** 7648-0.029 76495 7650-0.100 7651*** 7652-0.029 7653 7654-0.102 7655*** 7656-0.029 7657 7658-0.107 7659*** 7660-0.029 7661 7662-0.108 7663*** 7664-0.029 76656 7666-0.005 7667 7668-0.029 7669 7670-0.006 7671 7672-0.029 7673 7674-0.004 7675 7676-0.029 7677 7678-0.005 7679 7680-0.029 7681Neighborhood attributes 7682 7683 7684 7685 7686 7687 7688 7689 7690 7691 7692 7693 7694 7695 7696 7697Log. Population density 7698-0.007 7699*** 77000.000 7701 7702-0.006 7703*** 77040.000 7705 7706-0.007 7707*** 77080.000 7709 7710-0.006 7711*** 77120.000 7713Log. Distance to nearest park 77140.013 7715*** 7716-0.001 7717 77180.013 7719*** 7720-0.001 7721 77220.013 7723*** 7724-0.001 7725 77260.013 7727*** 7728-0.001 7729Log. Distance to nearest equipment 7730-0.010 7731*** 7732-0.001 7733 7734-0.010 7735*** 7736-0.001 7737 7738-0.010 7739*** 7740-0.001 7741 7742-0.010 7743*** 7744-0.001 7745Roads Index 7746-0.020 7747*** 7748-0.002 7749 7750-0.018 7751*** 7752-0.002 7753 7754-0.021 7755*** 7756-0.002 7757 7758-0.020 7759*** 7760-0.002 7761(Table continues on next page) 776277637764===== PAGE 38 (score 55, numeric-paren 34, table-words 5, var-words 4) =====77657766160 7767 7768 7769JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 7770 7771 7772Base Model 7773 7774Model 2 7775Urban renewal partial plans 7776 7777Model 3 7778BRT buffer 500 mts 7779 7780Model 4 7781Urban renewal partial plans 7782& BRT buffer 500 mts 7783 7784Dependent variable: 7785 7786Dependent variable: 7787 7788Dependent variable: 7789 7790Dependent variable: 7791 7792Ln. Price per square meter 7793 Ln. Price per square meter 7794 Ln. Price per square meter 7795 Ln. Price per square meter 7796Location 7797 7798 7799 7800 7801 7802 7803 7804 7805 7806 7807 7808 7809 7810 7811 7812Log. Distance to CBD.72 7813-0.111 7814*** 7815-0.004 7816 7817-0.115 7818*** 7819-0.004 7820 7821-0.125 7822*** 7823-0.004 7824 7825-0.128 7826*** 7827-0.004 7828Log. Distance to nearest activity center 7829-0.051 7830*** 7831-0.002 7832 7833-0.047 7834*** 7835-0.003 7836 7837-0.044 7838*** 7839-0.003 7840 7841-0.039 7842*** 7843-0.003 7844Log. Distance to L2MB 78450.064 7846*** 7847-0.003 7848 78490.067 7850*** 7851-0.003 7852 78530.072 7854*** 7855-0.003 7856 78570.074 7858*** 7859-0.003 7860 7861 7862 7863 7864 7865 7866 7867 7868 7869 7870 7871 7872 7873 7874 7875 7876Crime 7877 7878 7879 7880 7881 7882 7883 7884 7885 7886 7887 7888 7889 7890 7891 7892Log. Homicides 7893-0.021 7894*** 7895-0.002 7896 7897-0.023 7898*** 7899-0.002 7900 7901-0.023 7902*** 7903-0.002 7904 7905-0.024 7906*** 7907-0.002 7908Log. Thefts 7909-0.021 7910*** 7911-0.004 7912 7913-0.018 7914*** 7915-0.004 7916 7917-0.015 7918*** 7919-0.004 7920 7921-0.012 7922*** 7923-0.004 7924BRT 7925 7926 7927 7928 7929 7930 7931 7932 7933 7934 7935 7936 7937 7938 7939 7940Buffer 500mts built trunk 7941 7942 7943 7944 7945 7946 7947 7948 79490.020 7950*** 7951-0.002 7952 79530.019 7954*** 7955-0.002 7956Buffer 500mts trunk under construction 7957 7958 7959 7960 7961 7962 7963 7964 7965-0.022 7966*** 7967-0.003 7968 7969-0.020 7970*** 7971-0.003 7972Buffer 500mts Carrera Séptima Corridor 7973 7974 7975 7976 7977 7978 7979 7980 7981-0.019 7982*** 7983-0.003 7984 7985-0.018 7986*** 7987-0.003 7988Small Area Plans 7989 7990 7991 7992 7993 7994 7995 7996 7997 7998 7999 8000 8001 8002 8003 8004Urban Renewal 8005 8006 8007 8008 80090.079 8010*** 8011-0.010 8012 8013 8014 8015 8016 80170.076 8018*** 8019-0.010 8020Development 8021 8022 8023 8024 80250.177 8026*** 8027-0.012 8028 8029 8030 8031 8032 80330.172 8034*** 8035-0.012 8036Constant 803714.607 8038*** 8039-0.046 8040 804114.567 8042*** 8043-0.046 8044 804514.562 8046*** 8047-0.047 8048 804914.523 8050*** 8051-0.047 8052Observations 8053278,393 8054 8055 8056 8057278,393 8058 8059 8060 8061278,393 8062 8063 8064 8065278,393 8066 8067 8068R – Squared 80690.473 8070 8071 8072 80730.474 8074 8075 8076 80770.474 8078 8079 8080 80810.474 8082 8083 8084Robust standard errors in parentheses 8085***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1 8086 808780888089===== PAGE 39 (score 7, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 2) =====80908091 8092 8093161 8094Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics 8095Base Model 8096Model 2 (control with partial plans 8097Model 3 (control with BRT buffer 500mts) 8098Model 4 (control with partial plans and BRT buffer 500mts) 8099Figure 4. Effects of the L2MB on real estate development prices per square meter in Bogotá by 8100Isochrone (2006-2023) Sources: Analysis on (STATA, 2024) 8101-0.308102-0.258103-0.208104-0.158105-0.108106-0.0581070.0081080.0581090.1081100.1581110.2081120.2581130.308114200681152007811620088117200981182010811920118120201281212013812220148123201581242016812520178126201881272019812820208129202181302022813120238132Coeff. 5min8133Coeff. 10min8134Coeff. 15min8135Coeff. 20min8136Creation Metro 8137Agency8138CONPES 4104 and 41098139Contract 136 FDN8140Starting bidding process8141-0.308142-0.258143-0.208144-0.158145-0.108146-0.0581470.0081480.0581490.1081500.1581510.2081520.2581530.308154200681552007815620088157200981582010815920118160201281612013816220148163201581642016816520178166201881672019816820208169202181702022817120238172Coeff. 5min8173Coeff. 10min8174Coeff. 15min8175Coeff. 20min8176Creation Metro 8177Agency8178CONPES 4104 and 41098179Contract 136 FDN8180Starting bidding process8181-0.308182-0.258183-0.208184-0.158185-0.108186-0.0581870.0081880.0581890.1081900.1581910.2081920.2581930.308194200681952007819620088197200981982010819920118200201282012013820220148203201582042016820520178206201882072019820820208209202182102022821120238212Coeff. 5min8213Coeff. 10min8214Coeff. 15min8215Coeff. 20min8216Creation Metro 8217Agency8218CONPES 4104 and 41098219Contract 136 FDN8220Starting bidding process8221-0.308222-0.258223-0.208224-0.158225-0.108226-0.0582270.0082280.0582290.1082300.1582310.2082320.2582330.308234200682352007823620088237200982382010823920118240201282412013824220148243201582442016824520178246201882472019824820208249202182502022825120238252Coeff. 5min8253Coeff. 10min8254Coeff. 15min8255Coeff. 20min8256Creation Metro 8257Agency8258CONPES 4104 and 41098259Contract 136 FDN8260Starting bidding process8261