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1\begin{table}[htbp]2\centering\scriptsize3\caption{Task B — directional accuracy (\% of forecasts with the sign of the realised change, changes above 0.5 log points) overall and at turning points (origins where the realised change reverses sign)}\label{tab:direction_b}4\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{%5\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr}6\toprule7Model & h=1: all & h=1: turning pts & h=3: all & h=3: turning pts & h=6: all & h=6: turning pts & h=12: all & h=12: turning pts \\8\midrule9Mean growth & 60 & 51 & 70 & 50 & 78 & 51 & 90 & 47 \\10Momentum & 53 & 72 & 50 & 69 & 45 & 68 & 46 & 47 \\11AR(2), cell & 59 & 65 & 71 & 58 & 78 & 60 & 91 & 48 \\12Ridge (panel) & 65 & 68 & 73 & 58 & 76 & 59 & 91 & 48 \\13LightGBM (panel) & 70 & 77 & 75 & 65 & 78 & 59 & 91 & 47 \\14TFT-lite & 60 & 66 & 69 & 65 & 77 & 60 & 91 & 47 \\15BHPF & 65 & 67 & 73 & 57 & 77 & 59 & 91 & 49 \\16RAREF & 66 & 68 & 73 & 58 & 76 & 58 & 91 & 48 \\17QANSS & 67 & 75 & 73 & 61 & 76 & 64 & 75 & 50 \\18DSGFN & 63 & 66 & 77 & 65 & 79 & 60 & 91 & 47 \\19QREFA & 65 & 70 & 76 & 66 & 78 & 62 & 91 & 48 \\20\bottomrule21\end{tabular}}22\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize The no-change forecast has no sign; momentum has the sign of the last three-month change.}23\end{table}24