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1\begin{table}[htbp]2\centering\scriptsize3\caption{Task B robustness at the municipality level, horizon 3: MAE (×100) under alternative designs}\label{tab:robust_b}4\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{%5\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrr}6\toprule7Model & Expanding (baseline) & Rolling 24 origins & Cells with $n \ge 10$ & Winsorised target & Seed 1 & Seed 2 & Bandwidth 30 / 120 km \\8\midrule9No change & 4.38 & 4.38 & 4.40 & 4.24 & — & — & — \\10Momentum & 4.39 & 4.38 & 4.40 & 4.25 & — & — & — \\11AR(2), cell & 3.95 & 3.92 & 4.06 & 3.82 & — & — & — \\12Ridge (panel) & 3.73 & 3.52 & 3.63 & 3.59 & — & — & — \\13QANSS & 3.75 & 3.88 & 3.69 & 3.72 & 3.96 & 3.87 & — \\14TFT-lite & 4.33 & 4.46 & 4.12 & 4.21 & 4.51 & 4.83 & — \\15DSGFN & 3.76 & 3.90 & 3.83 & 3.76 & 4.05 & 3.66 & — \\16DSGFN, bandwidth 30 km & — & — & — & — & — & — & 4.00 \\17DSGFN, bandwidth 120 km & — & — & — & — & — & — & 3.98 \\18\bottomrule19\end{tabular}}20\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize Rolling: models estimated on the 24 most recent origins only. Seeds: neural models re-estimated with different random seeds (the baseline is seed 0). Winsorised: targets clipped at the 1st and 99th percentiles in training and test.}21\end{table}22