WP23 v1.1: extended analyses (time/regime/direction/decline/combination/municipal/cost/dollar/selection), completed appendices with diagrams and test tables, 56 p.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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README.md
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| 3 | 3 | |
| 4 | 4 | **UQO Working Paper No. 23** — *A pseudo-real-time evaluation on 632,000 Quebec transactions and 82 local market indices, 2021–2026* |
| 5 | 5 | |
| 6 | −[-b31b1b?logo=latex&logoColor=white)](paper/main.pdf) | |
| 6 | +[-b31b1b?logo=latex&logoColor=white)](paper/main.pdf) | |
| 7 | 7 | [](requirements.txt) |
| 8 | 8 | [-4051b5)](../sharp-hpi-quebec/data/raw/README.md) |
| 9 | 9 | [](scripts/) |
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ | ||
| 18 | 18 | |
| 19 | 19 | | Item | Value | |
| 20 | 20 | |---|---| |
| 21 | −| Version | 1.0 (October 2026) | | |
| 21 | +| Version | 1.1 (October 2026) — extended analyses and completed appendices | | |
| 22 | 22 | | SSRN | not yet submitted | |
| 23 | 23 | | Journal | — | |
| 24 | 24 | | Code & data | reproducible from `scripts/`; inputs are WP22 artefacts (read-only) | |
@@ -39,6 +39,13 @@ Tests, on the same transaction-level data, whether spatial, hierarchical, regime | ||
| 39 | 39 | | Ablations (municipal, h = 6): DSGFN without graph vs full / equal-weight combo vs QREFA / ridge without momentum | -0.59 / -0.38 / +0.53 log pts | |
| 40 | 40 | | Seed variability (h = 3): DSGFN 3.76–4.05, TFT-lite 4.33–4.83, QANSS 3.75–3.96 | — | |
| 41 | 41 | | Simulation (municipal, h = 3, MAE / no change): regimes AR(2) 0.78 · momentum ridge 1.53 · spillover DSGFN 1.29 · rw QANSS 2.04 | — | |
| 42 | +| Task B, h = 3, by ex-post provincial regime: LightGBM MASE rising windows (17 origins) / flat (13) | 0.63 / 1.00 (the gain is the forecastability of spring upswings) | | |
| 43 | +| Task B, h = 3, Holm-adjusted DM p-value vs no change: LightGBM / QANSS (unadjusted 0.007 / 0.037) | 0.11 / 0.59 — no improvement survives a 10 % family-wise rate | | |
| 44 | +| Task B, h = 3, directional accuracy all / at turning points: DSGFN / QREFA / LightGBM | 77 / 76 / 75 % overall; 65 / 66 / 65 % at turning points | | |
| 45 | +| Task C, h = 3, Brier skill of P(decline) vs climatology: QREFA / LightGBM / QANSS / no change | +0.17 / +0.15 / +0.07 / -0.02 | | |
| 46 | +| Task B, h = 3, 192 municipal cells: share where LightGBM / QANSS / ridge beats no change; LightGBM median MASE | 91 / 83 / 72 %; 0.74 | | |
| 47 | +| Equal-weight combinations (h = 3): LightGBM alone / LightGBM + QANSS / four models / QREFA stack | 0.754 / 0.760 / 0.765 / 0.816 | | |
| 48 | +| Task A, 1–3 months, median absolute dollar error LightGBM vs municipal median: house / condo / plex | $61,102 vs $92,750 / $32,005 vs $127,000 / $80,115 vs $135,000 | | |
| 42 | 49 | |
| 43 | 50 | Every number is a generated macro (`paper/tables/numbers.tex`). |
| 44 | 51 | |
@@ -48,10 +55,10 @@ Every number is a generated macro (`paper/tables/numbers.tex`). | ||
| 48 | 55 | forecasting-architectures-quebec/ |
| 49 | 56 | ├── CLAUDE.md # protocol (as received; truncated section completed) |
| 50 | 57 | ├── src/wp23/ # config, data (Task A), data_b (Task B), evaluation, models_a(+_torch), models_b(+_torch) |
| 51 | −├── scripts/ # 10 task A · 20 task B · 30 evaluate · 35 interpret · 36/37 ablation · 38 robustness · 40/41 simulation · 50 tables · 60 figures | |
| 58 | +├── scripts/ # 10 task A · 20 task B · 30 evaluate · 35 interpret · 36/37 ablation · 38 robustness · 39 extra analyses · 40/41 simulation · 50 tables · 60 figures | |
| 52 | 59 | ├── tests/ |
| 53 | 60 | ├── data/processed/ # task_b_panel.parquet (built from WP22 vintages; not committed) |
| 54 | −├── results/ # task_a, task_b, eval_a, eval_b, ablation_b, robustness_b, simulation, interpret | |
| 61 | +├── results/ # task_a, task_b, eval_a, eval_b, ablation_b, robustness_b, simulation, interpret, extra (time/regime/direction/decline/combination/municipal/cost/dollar/selection) | |
| 55 | 62 | ├── docs/ # PLAN, decision_log, leakage_audit, limitations, literature/ (152 verified refs, novelty scan) |
| 56 | 63 | └── paper/ # main.tex, sections/, appendix/, tables/ (generated), references.bib |
| 57 | 64 | ``` |
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| 13 | 13 | | D8 | Simulation forecasters run with 10 replications (6 for the neural family), horizons 1/3/6 | compute on the node (RAREF HMM and torch models are slow) | |
| 14 | 14 | | D9 | BHPF is conjugate/EM rather than MCMC; VI/HMC not available (PyMC absent) and unnecessary for a Gaussian hierarchy | exactness | |
| 15 | 15 | | D10 | CMA boundaries unavailable; metropolitan comparisons not needed for forecasting tasks | inherited from WP22 | |
| 16 | +| D8 | Multiple-testing: Holm step-down over the 18 DM p-values of each horizon reported next to the unadjusted ones; conclusions stated at the family-wise level | 18 models compared with the same benchmark on 31–45 origins; unadjusted 5 % results (LightGBM p 0.007) do not survive (Holm 0.11) | | |
| 17 | +| D9 | Ex-post regimes (rising / flat / falling provincial house index over the target window, ±2 log points) used only for descriptive error decomposition, never as a model input | regimes defined on realised changes would leak if used for forecasting; RAREF's real-time states are reported separately | | |
| 18 | +| D10 | Probability of decline read from the five forecast quantiles by linear interpolation of the quantile function; Brier skill relative to the climatological frequency | models output quantiles, not densities; the interpolation is the same for every model | | |
| 19 | +| D11 | Appendices carry text before every table and a FloatBarrier at the end of each section; supplementary tables moved out of the main text (cell-size / segment heterogeneity, regional and provincial simulation) to avoid duplicates | author review 2026-10-21: empty sections and floating tables | | |
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| 8 | 8 | | 15:00 | 4 | Simulation design (5 DGPs on the WP22 simulator); 100 synthetic panels built on the node; literature agent: 152 verified references + novelty scan | |
| 9 | 9 | | 15:30–16:30 | 5–6 | Task A evaluated; ablations (36/37), interpretability (SHAP/ALE), robustness (38) run; sections written as results arrived | |
| 10 | 10 | | 17:00–17:40 | 6–7 | Task B evaluated; simulation forecasters summarised (10/6 replications); all sections written; 44-page manuscript compiles with 0 missing macros; anonymous version; pushed to wp23_uqo.git | |
| 11 | +| 19:00–20:30 | 7 (v1.1) | Author review: appendices had bare headings and an empty « Supplementary tables » section → rewritten (architecture equations + TikZ diagrams, text before every table, test-method appendix with Holm/GW tables, cost table, FloatBarrier). New `scripts/39_extra_analysis.py` on the fetched Task A/B predictions: errors by origin/year and by ex-post regime, Holm-adjusted DM, directional accuracy and turning points, P(decline) Brier/reliability, equal-weight combinations, municipal MASE distribution, RAREF filtered regimes, dollar errors, selection rates, computational cost → 11 new tables, 5 new figures, new subsections in results / heterogeneity / probabilistic / interpretation / data. Wide tables scaled (`fit`). 56 pages, 0 undefined references; anonymous version rebuilt. | | |
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paper/appendix/appendix.tex
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| 1 | +\FloatBarrier | |
| 1 | 2 | \begin{appendices} |
| 3 | + | |
| 4 | +\section{Architectures: formal specification and diagrams}\label{app:arch} | |
| 5 | + | |
| 6 | +This appendix gives the equations and block diagrams of the six proposed architectures as implemented in \texttt{src/wp23/models\_a\_torch.py}, \texttt{models\_b.py} and \texttt{models\_b\_torch.py}. Notation: $x$ standardised feature vector, $\mathbf{h}$ the thirteen-month relative history of the real-time index ($h_j = y^{\mathrm{rt}}_{o-12+j} - y^{\mathrm{rt}}_o$), $\tau \in \{0.05, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 0.95\}$ the quantile levels, $\ell_\tau(u) = \max(\tau u, (\tau-1)u)$ the pinball loss. | |
| 7 | + | |
| 8 | +\paragraph{HSHN (Task A).} With $g_i = e_{\mathrm{reg}(i)} + e_{\mathrm{mrc}(i)} + e_{\mathrm{mun}(i)} \in \mathbb{R}^8$ and $e_{h} \in \mathbb{R}^4$, | |
| 9 | +\begin{equation} | |
| 10 | +z_i = \mathrm{GELU}\big(W_2\,\mathrm{GELU}(W_1 [x_i, g_i, e_{h_i}])\big),\quad v_i = \mathrm{GELU}\big(W_3 [z_i, g_i, e_{h_i}]\big),\quad \hat q_i = W_4 [z_i, v_i] \in \mathbb{R}^5, | |
| 11 | +\end{equation} | |
| 12 | +trained by $\min \sum_i \sum_\tau \ell_\tau(\log P_i - \hat q_{i,\tau}) + \lambda_{\mathrm{mun}} \|e_{\mathrm{mun}}\|^2 + \lambda \|\theta\|^2$ with $\lambda_{\mathrm{mun}} = 5\times10^{-3}$ (partial), $\lambda_{\mathrm{mun}} = 0$ (none) or $e_{\mathrm{mun}} \equiv 0$ (full). | |
| 13 | + | |
| 14 | +\paragraph{DSGFN (Task B).} Node encodings $z_u = \phi([x_u, \mathbf{h}_u])$; attention logits $a_{uv} = q_u^\top k_v / \sqrt{d} + \omega \log A_{uv}$ for $v \ne u$, $A_{uv} = \exp(-(d_{uv}/60\,\mathrm{km})^2)\,(\tfrac12 + \tfrac12 \rho_{uv})\,\mathbb{1}[\text{same level, class, origin}]$ with $\rho_{uv}$ the correlation of the two nodes' monthly real-time changes over the history; $n_u = \sum_v \mathrm{softmax}_v(a_{uv})\, V z_v$; $\hat q_u = \psi([z_u, n_u])$. | |
| 15 | + | |
| 16 | +\paragraph{RAREF (Task B).} Provincial real-time growth $g_1, \ldots, g_T$ (one per past origin, each from its own vintage); three-state Gaussian HMM $(\pi, A, \mu_k, \sigma_k)$ by Baum--Welch; filtered probabilities $p_{k,o} = P(s_o = k \mid g_{1:o})$; experts $\hat\beta_k = \argmin_\beta \sum_i p_{k,o(i)} (y_i - x_i^\top\beta)^2 + \alpha\|\beta\|^2$; forecast $\sum_k p_{k,o}\, x^\top \hat\beta_k$. | |
| 17 | + | |
| 18 | +\paragraph{BHPF (Task B).} $y = \beta_0 + x^\top\beta + u_{r} + u_{c} + \varepsilon$, $\beta \sim N(0, \tau_b^2 I)$, $u_r \sim N(0, \tau_r^2)$, $u_c \sim N(0, \tau_c^2)$, $\varepsilon \sim N(0, \sigma^2)$; posterior $N(\hat\theta, \Sigma)$ with $\Sigma = (D^\top D/\sigma^2 + \Lambda)^{-1}$, $\hat\theta = \Sigma D^\top y / \sigma^2$; variance components updated as $\tau_r^2 \leftarrow \mathrm{mean}(\hat u_r^2) + \mathrm{mean}(\mathrm{diag}\,\Sigma_{rr})$ (and likewise for $\tau_c^2$, $\sigma^2$) for fifteen iterations; predictive $N(d^\top\hat\theta, d^\top \Sigma d + \sigma^2)$. | |
| 19 | + | |
| 20 | +\paragraph{QANSS (Task B).} State at the origin $s_o = (\bar\Delta_3, \mathrm{sd}(\Delta), n\text{-ratio}-1, \Delta^{\mathrm{prov}}_3/3, \Delta^{\mathrm{reg}}_3/3, \Delta_{-1}, \Delta_{-2})$; network $(m(s), \log\varsigma(s)) = W_2 \tanh(W_1 s)$; forecast $h\, m(s_o)$ with predictive variance $\varsigma(s_o)^2 + \mathrm{se}_o^2$, estimated by maximising the Gaussian likelihood of the training targets. | |
| 21 | + | |
| 22 | +\paragraph{QREFA.} $\hat y = \sum_k w_k \hat y_k$ with $w = \argmin_{w \ge 0} \|y - F w\|^2$ on the training origins, normalised to sum to one; quantiles $\sum_k w_k \hat q_k$. | |
| 23 | + | |
| 24 | +\begin{figure}[H]\centering\footnotesize | |
| 25 | +\begin{tikzpicture}[node distance=5mm and 7mm, box/.style={draw, rounded corners=2pt, minimum height=6mm, minimum width=18mm, align=center, font=\footnotesize}, >={Stealth[length=2mm]}] | |
| 26 | +\node[box] (x) {hedonic + market\\features $x_i$}; | |
| 27 | +\node[box, below=of x] (g) {geo embeddings\\$e_{\mathrm{reg}}+e_{\mathrm{mrc}}+e_{\mathrm{mun}}$}; | |
| 28 | +\node[box, below=of g] (h) {horizon\\embedding $e_h$}; | |
| 29 | +\node[box, right=of g, xshift=6mm] (enc) {encoder\\256--128 GELU}; | |
| 30 | +\node[box, right=of enc] (int) {interaction\\block}; | |
| 31 | +\node[box, right=of int] (head) {5 quantiles\\of $\log P$}; | |
| 32 | +\draw[->] (x) -- (enc); \draw[->] (g) -- (enc); \draw[->] (h) -- (enc); \draw[->] (enc) -- (int); \draw[->] (g.east) to[out=-10,in=-120] (int.south); \draw[->] (int) -- (head); \draw[->] (enc.north) to[out=30,in=150] (head.north); | |
| 33 | +\node[above=1mm of int, font=\footnotesize\bfseries] {HSHN}; | |
| 34 | +\begin{scope}[yshift=-52mm] | |
| 35 | +\node[box] (f) {node features\\$x_u$, history $\mathbf{h}_u$}; | |
| 36 | +\node[box, right=of f] (ze) {node encoder\\$z_u$}; | |
| 37 | +\node[box, right=of ze, xshift=4mm] (att) {graph attention\\prior $A$ (distance $\times$ co-movement)}; | |
| 38 | +\node[box, right=of att] (hd) {head\\$[z_u, n_u] \to$ 5 quantiles}; | |
| 39 | +\draw[->] (f) -- (ze); \draw[->] (ze) -- (att); \draw[->] (att) -- (hd); \draw[->] (ze) to[out=-20,in=-160] (hd); | |
| 40 | +\node[above=1mm of ze, font=\footnotesize\bfseries] {DSGFN}; | |
| 41 | +\end{scope} | |
| 42 | +\begin{scope}[yshift=-76mm] | |
| 43 | +\node[box] (gs) {provincial growth\\$g_{1:o}$ (real-time)}; | |
| 44 | +\node[box, right=of gs] (hmm) {3-state HMM\\filtered $p_{k,o}$}; | |
| 45 | +\node[box, right=of hmm, xshift=4mm] (ex) {ridge experts\\$\hat\beta_1,\hat\beta_2,\hat\beta_3$}; | |
| 46 | +\node[box, right=of ex] (mix) {$\sum_k p_{k,o}\,x^\top\hat\beta_k$}; | |
| 47 | +\draw[->] (gs) -- (hmm); \draw[->] (hmm) -- (ex); \draw[->] (ex) -- (mix); | |
| 48 | +\node[above=1mm of hmm, font=\footnotesize\bfseries] {RAREF}; | |
| 49 | +\end{scope} | |
| 50 | +\begin{scope}[yshift=-100mm] | |
| 51 | +\node[box] (st) {state $s_o$: drift, volatility,\\volume ratio, parent drifts}; | |
| 52 | +\node[box, right=of st] (tr) {learned transition\\$W_2\tanh(W_1 s)$}; | |
| 53 | +\node[box, right=of tr, xshift=4mm] (out) {$h\,m(s_o)$,\\ $\varsigma(s_o)^2 + \mathrm{se}_o^2$}; | |
| 54 | +\draw[->] (st) -- (tr); \draw[->] (tr) -- (out); | |
| 55 | +\node[above=1mm of tr, font=\footnotesize\bfseries] {QANSS}; | |
| 56 | +\node[box, right=of out, xshift=4mm] (q) {QREFA: NNLS stack of\\QANSS, BHPF, DSGFN, RAREF}; | |
| 57 | +\end{scope} | |
| 58 | +\end{tikzpicture} | |
| 59 | +\caption{Block diagrams of the proposed architectures (BHPF is a conjugate linear-Gaussian hierarchy without a diagram).}\label{fig:diagrams} | |
| 60 | +\end{figure} | |
| 61 | + | |
| 2 | 62 | \section{Hyper-parameters}\label{app:hyper} |
| 63 | + | |
| 64 | +Table~\ref{tab:hyper} lists the hyper-parameters of every model. They were fixed before any test origin was evaluated and were not tuned; the seed variability of Section~\ref{sec:ablation} measures the uncertainty that tuning would have to overcome. | |
| 65 | + | |
| 3 | 66 | \input{tables/tab_hyper} |
| 67 | +\FloatBarrier | |
| 68 | + | |
| 4 | 69 | \section{Leakage audit}\label{app:leakage} |
| 70 | + | |
| 71 | +Table~\ref{tab:leakage} records, for each item of the protocol's audit list, where chronological separation is enforced in the code; the test suite (\texttt{tests/test\_wp23.py}) checks that the Task~A features of test sales are computed from sales dated on or before the origin. | |
| 72 | + | |
| 5 | 73 | \input{tables/tab_leakage} |
| 74 | +\FloatBarrier | |
| 75 | + | |
| 76 | +\section{Forecast comparison tests}\label{app:tests} | |
| 77 | + | |
| 78 | +Let $d_t = L_{A,t} - L_{B,t}$ be the difference of per-origin mean squared losses over $n$ origins. The Diebold--Mariano statistic is $\bar d / \sqrt{\hat\sigma^2_{\mathrm{HAC}}/n}$ with a Bartlett long-run variance of $h-1$ lags, multiplied by the Harvey--Leybourne--Newbold factor $\sqrt{(n + 1 - 2h + h(h-1)/n)/n}$ and compared with a $t_{n-1}$ distribution. The Giacomini--White statistic regresses $d_t$ on $z_{t-1} = (1, d_{t-1})$ and tests $\E[z_{t-1} d_t] = 0$ by a Wald statistic with the same HAC covariance, distributed $\chi^2_2$. The model confidence set starts from all models, computes $t_i = \bar d_{i\cdot}/\hat\sigma_i$ for the deviation of each model's mean loss from the cross-model mean, eliminates the model with the largest $t_i$ when the stationary-bootstrap $p$-value of $\max_i t_i$ (500 resamples, mean block length $\max(2,h)$) is below 10\%, and stops otherwise; reported $p$-values are the monotone MCS $p$-values of \citet{hansen2011mcs}. Holm step-down adjusted $p$-values of the Diebold--Mariano tests across the models of a horizon are given in Table~\ref{tab:tests_b}; Table~\ref{tab:gw_b} gives the unadjusted $p$-values and the Giacomini--White $p$-values. | |
| 79 | + | |
| 80 | +\input{tables/tab_tests_b} | |
| 81 | +\input{tables/tab_gw_b} | |
| 82 | +\FloatBarrier | |
| 83 | + | |
| 6 | 84 | \section{Supplementary tables}\label{app:supp} |
| 85 | + | |
| 86 | +Tables~\ref{tab:het_a_mun_size} to~\ref{tab:cost} supplement the main text: Task~A errors by municipality size and by price segment (the breakdown by class is Table~\ref{tab:het_a_property_class} in the main text); Task~B errors by cell size and level; the regional and provincial simulation tables of Section~\ref{sec:sim}; and the computational cost of every model, measured on one machine so that the accuracy gains of Section~\ref{sec:results} can be weighed against their price in computing time (the tree models cost seconds per fit, the neural models minutes, and BHPF, which solves a dense linear system, is the most expensive Task~B model). | |
| 87 | + | |
| 88 | +\input{tables/tab_het_a_mun_size} | |
| 89 | +\input{tables/tab_het_a_segment} | |
| 90 | +\input{tables/tab_het_b_size_level} | |
| 91 | +\input{tables/tab_sim_region} | |
| 92 | +\input{tables/tab_sim_province} | |
| 93 | +\input{tables/tab_cost} | |
| 94 | +\FloatBarrier | |
| 95 | + | |
| 7 | 96 | \end{appendices} |
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| 83 | 83 | % --- Appendix Support --- |
| 84 | 84 | \usepackage[toc,page]{appendix} |
| 85 | 85 | \usepackage{longtable} |
| 86 | +\usepackage{placeins} | |
| 87 | +\usepackage{tikz} | |
| 88 | +\usetikzlibrary{positioning,arrows.meta,fit,calc} | |
| 86 | 89 | \usepackage{bm} |
| 87 | 90 | \input{tables/numbers} |
| 88 | 91 | \input{tables/numbers_missing} |
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| 31 | 31 | \usepackage{tabularx} |
| 32 | 32 | \usepackage{multirow} |
| 33 | 33 | \usepackage{threeparttable} |
| 34 | +\usepackage{placeins} | |
| 35 | +\usepackage{tikz} | |
| 36 | +\usetikzlibrary{positioning,arrows.meta,fit,calc} | |
| 34 | 37 | \usepackage{siunitx} |
| 35 | 38 | \sisetup{ |
| 36 | 39 | input-symbols = {()}, |
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paper/sections/data.tex
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@@ -11,6 +11,10 @@ Table~\ref{tab:coverage} summarises coverage by region and class and the evaluat | ||
| 11 | 11 | \input{tables/tab_coverage} |
| 12 | 12 | \input{tables/tab_selection} |
| 13 | 13 | |
| 14 | +Table~\ref{tab:selection_rates} quantifies selection into transaction directly: the annual sale rate of the roll stock is \SaleRatehouseageOne\% for the newest quintile of houses against \SaleRatehouseageThree{} to \SaleRatehouseageFive\% for older ones, and \SaleRatehousefaOne\% for the smallest quintile against \SaleRatehousefaFive\% for the largest. Sold dwellings are newer and smaller than the stock; the Task~A evaluation population is the dwellings that come to market, and every model is evaluated on that population. | |
| 15 | + | |
| 16 | +\input{tables/tab_selection_rates} | |
| 17 | + | |
| 14 | 18 | \begin{figure}[htbp]\centering |
| 15 | 19 | \includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{figures/fig_map_density.pdf} |
| 16 | 20 | \caption{Municipal sales density (headline sample, 2021--2026) and the 64 municipalities with real-time index vintages (outlined).}\label{fig:map_density} |
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paper/sections/heterogeneity.tex
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@@ -6,16 +6,20 @@ Tables~\ref{tab:het_a_mun_size}, \ref{tab:het_a_property_class} and \ref{tab:het | ||
| 6 | 6 | |
| 7 | 7 | \subsection{Task B by level, class and cell size} |
| 8 | 8 | |
| 9 | −Tables~\ref{tab:het_b_level}, \ref{tab:het_b_class} and~\ref{tab:het_b_size_level} report the three-month MAE by geographic level, class and municipal size (large: at least 50 sales in the origin month). Forecast errors scale with the noise of the target: municipal index changes are twice as volatile as regional ones, and the MASE of the best model relative to no change is similar across levels (0.69 for regions, 0.77 for municipalities with LightGBM), so the pooled models extract a similar share of the predictable variation at every level. Condominium indices are the most predictable in absolute terms and houses the least. Hierarchical pooling (BHPF, HSHN) does not improve on the pooled models in small municipalities: the gain over the no-change forecast is the same in large and small municipal cells, and the municipal intercepts shrink to zero. Figure~\ref{fig:error_map} maps the three-month MAE of the best model relative to no change by region: the gain is largest in the regions with the strongest seasonal cycle and smallest in the sparse eastern regions. | |
| 9 | +Tables~\ref{tab:het_b_level}, \ref{tab:het_b_class} and~\ref{tab:het_b_size_level} report the three-month MAE by geographic level, class and municipal size (large: at least 50 sales in the origin month). Forecast errors scale with the noise of the target: municipal index changes are twice as volatile as regional ones, and the MASE of the best model relative to no change is similar across levels (0.69 for regions, 0.77 for municipalities with LightGBM), so the pooled models extract a similar share of the predictable variation at every level. Condominium indices are the most predictable in absolute terms and houses the least. Hierarchical pooling (BHPF, HSHN) does not improve on the pooled models in small municipalities: the gain over the no-change forecast is the same in large and small municipal cells, and the municipal intercepts shrink to zero. Figure~\ref{fig:error_map} maps the three-month MAE of the best model relative to no change by region: the gain is largest in the regions with the strongest seasonal cycle and smallest in the sparse eastern regions. Table~\ref{tab:mun_dist_b} and Figure~\ref{fig:mun_distribution} give the distribution of the three-month MASE across the 192 municipal cells: LightGBM beats the no-change forecast in \MunSharelightgbmpanel\% of the cells with a median MASE of \MunMedMASElightgbmpanel, QANSS in \MunShareqanss\%, the AR(2) in \MunSharearTwocell\%, and the pooled ridge in \MunShareridgepanel\% with a long right tail (90th percentile \MunPninetyridgepanel{} against \MunPninetylightgbmpanel{} for LightGBM): the linear pooled model is the one most often harmed by the heterogeneity of municipal dynamics, which is what the tree model's interactions absorb. Tables~\ref{tab:het_b_size_level}, \ref{tab:het_a_mun_size} and~\ref{tab:het_a_segment} in Appendix~\ref{app:supp} give the breakdowns by cell size and by price segment. | |
| 10 | + | |
| 11 | +\input{tables/tab_mun_dist_b} | |
| 12 | + | |
| 13 | +\begin{figure}[htbp]\centering | |
| 14 | +\includegraphics[width=0.6\textwidth]{figures/fig_mun_distribution.pdf} | |
| 15 | +\caption{Task B, horizon 3: distribution of the MASE relative to no change across the 192 municipal cells.}\label{fig:mun_distribution} | |
| 16 | +\end{figure} | |
| 10 | 17 | |
| 11 | 18 | \input{tables/tab_het_b_level} |
| 12 | 19 | \input{tables/tab_het_b_class} |
| 13 | −\input{tables/tab_het_b_size_level} | |
| 14 | 20 | |
| 15 | 21 | \begin{figure}[htbp]\centering |
| 16 | 22 | \includegraphics[width=0.7\textwidth]{figures/fig_error_map.pdf} |
| 17 | 23 | \caption{Task B: ratio of the best model's three-month MAE to the no-change MAE by administrative region.}\label{fig:error_map} |
| 18 | 24 | \end{figure} |
| 19 | −\input{tables/tab_het_a_mun_size} | |
| 20 | 25 | \input{tables/tab_het_a_property_class} |
| 21 | −\input{tables/tab_het_a_segment} | |
modified
paper/sections/interpretation.tex
+6 −1
@@ -8,4 +8,9 @@ Table~\ref{tab:shap} reports the mean absolute SHAP values \citep{lundberglee201 | ||
| 8 | 8 | |
| 9 | 9 | \subsection{What is forecastable at the market level} |
| 10 | 10 | |
| 11 | −The protocol's eight questions receive the following answers from Sections~\ref{sec:results}, \ref{sec:het} and~\ref{sec:ablation}. (1) \emph{Spatial spillovers} carry no predictive information beyond the parent (regional and provincial) momentum that every pooled model receives: the graph network does not beat the pooled ridge, its attention is diffuse, and removing its graph does not hurt. (2) \emph{Local momentum} persists at one to six months: the cell's own recent changes are the dominant predictors, and AR(2) and mean-growth rules capture most of the gain; but it reverses at twelve months, where no pooled model beats the no-change forecast. (3) \emph{Property characteristics} forecast the value of a dwelling, not the market: the trees halve the error of the municipal median in Task~A, but their horizon profile shows no information about future market movements. (4) \emph{Regimes}: the HMM gating of RAREF reproduces the pooled ridge; the three experts converge to similar coefficients because the training origins contain one slowdown and one recovery, too few to estimate separate regimes. (5) \emph{Hierarchical pooling} in small municipalities does not help forecasting once the panel features are pooled: BHPF's municipal intercepts shrink to zero and HSHN's partial pooling matches no pooling. (6) \emph{Uncertainty in low-volume periods}: QANSS, which carries the WP22 filter variance, widens its intervals in thin cells and is the only model with nominal or higher coverage at every horizon. (7) \emph{Quality-adjusted versus median targets}: WP22 showed that the median index embeds composition; here the quality-adjusted index is forecastable at short horizons mainly through its seasonal and momentum structure. (8) \emph{Turning points}: the 2025--2026 slowdown was not anticipated by any model; the twelve-month forecasts issued in 2024 carry the bias of the preceding boom. Predictive importance in these results is not evidence of causality. | |
| 11 | +The protocol's eight questions receive the following answers from Sections~\ref{sec:results}, \ref{sec:het} and~\ref{sec:ablation}. (1) \emph{Spatial spillovers} carry no predictive information beyond the parent (regional and provincial) momentum that every pooled model receives: the graph network does not beat the pooled ridge, its attention is diffuse, and removing its graph does not hurt. (2) \emph{Local momentum} persists at one to six months: the cell's own recent changes are the dominant predictors, and AR(2) and mean-growth rules capture most of the gain; but it reverses at twelve months, where no pooled model beats the no-change forecast. (3) \emph{Property characteristics} forecast the value of a dwelling, not the market: the trees halve the error of the municipal median in Task~A, but their horizon profile shows no information about future market movements. (4) \emph{Regimes}: Figure~\ref{fig:regimes} shows the filtered state probabilities of the RAREF hidden Markov model, re-estimated at each origin from the provincial real-time growth known then. The model identifies a high-growth state (mean monthly growth of about $+2.6$ log points at the last origin) that it assigns to the origins of March to June of 2024, 2025 and 2026 (and August 2024), a middle state for the rest of the year, and a low-growth state (mean $-0.2$) that it visits with near certainty only at the September 2025 origin, after the one negative provincial month of the evaluation period. The states are the seasonal cycle, not business-cycle regimes, and the gating therefore reproduces what the calendar-month feature already gives the ridge; separate regime experts cannot be estimated from a sample that contains one slowdown and one recovery, and Table~\ref{tab:regime_b} confirms that the forecast gains are a property of rising windows. (5) \emph{Hierarchical pooling} in small municipalities does not help forecasting once the panel features are pooled: BHPF's municipal intercepts shrink to zero and HSHN's partial pooling matches no pooling. (6) \emph{Uncertainty in low-volume periods}: QANSS, which carries the WP22 filter variance, widens its intervals in thin cells and is the only model with nominal or higher coverage at every horizon. (7) \emph{Quality-adjusted versus median targets}: WP22 showed that the median index embeds composition; here the quality-adjusted index is forecastable at short horizons mainly through its seasonal and momentum structure. (8) \emph{Turning points}: the 2025--2026 slowdown was not anticipated by any model; the twelve-month forecasts issued in 2024 carry the bias of the preceding boom. Predictive importance in these results is not evidence of causality. | |
| 12 | + | |
| 13 | +\begin{figure}[htbp]\centering | |
| 14 | +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig_regimes.pdf} | |
| 15 | +\caption{RAREF: filtered probabilities of the three hidden Markov states (ordered by mean growth) at each origin, estimated from the provincial real-time growth known at the origin (houses); the black line is the last observed provincial monthly growth, rescaled.}\label{fig:regimes} | |
| 16 | +\end{figure} | |
modified
paper/sections/probabilistic.tex
+12 −2
@@ -1,12 +1,22 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \section{Probabilistic forecasting and calibration}\label{sec:prob} |
| 2 | 2 | |
| 3 | −Tables~\ref{tab:prob_a} and~\ref{tab:prob_b} report the CRPS, the coverage and the width of the 90\% intervals; Figures~\ref{fig:cal_a} and~\ref{fig:cal_b} plot the share of outcomes below each nominal quantile. For Task~A the LightGBM quantile models are the sharpest and are slightly under-covered (\aCovlightgbmhOneThree\% at one to three months for a nominal 90\%), the linear models are over-covered because their residual quantiles are homoskedastic, the hierarchical network is close to nominal at short horizons and under-covers at seven to twelve months (\aCovhshnpartialhSevenOneTwo\%) because its intervals do not widen with the horizon while the bias grows, and the unembedded MLP produces intervals two and a half times too wide. For Task~B the ranking by CRPS follows the point ranking (LightGBM \bCRPSlightgbmpanelhThree{} at three months, QREFA \bCRPSqrefahThree, QANSS \bCRPSqansshThree, no change \bCRPSnochangehThree), but calibration separates the models sharply. The neural quantile heads (LSTM, GRU, TCN, TFT-lite, DSGFN) under-cover at every horizon (\bCovdsgfnhThree\% to \bCovtftlitehThree\% at three months for a nominal 90\%, falling below 50\% at twelve months): trained with the pinball loss on 34 to 45 origins they fit the central quantiles and collapse the tails. The Gaussian posterior predictive of BHPF and the residual quantiles of the ridge are close to nominal at one and three months (\bCovbhpfhThree\%, \bCovridgepanelhThree\%) and under-cover at six and twelve months as the bias grows. QANSS is over-covered at every horizon (\bCovqansshThree\% at three months, \bCovqansshOneTwo\% at twelve) because its predictive variance adds the published filter variance of the origin level to the learned drift variance, and it is the only model whose twelve-month intervals contain the realised changes; the price is intervals twice as wide as LightGBM's. The decomposition of uncertainty the protocol asks for is only partly identified: the estimation component is the posterior variance of BHPF (small, because the panel is pooled), the transaction-noise component is the WP22 filter variance that QANSS carries, and the market-dynamics component is the residual drift variance; macroeconomic uncertainty is not modelled and is the reason every model fails at twelve months. | |
| 3 | +Tables~\ref{tab:prob_a} and~\ref{tab:prob_b} report the CRPS, the coverage and the width of the 90\% intervals; Figure~\ref{fig:cal_a} plots the share of outcomes below each nominal quantile. For Task~A the LightGBM quantile models are the sharpest and are slightly under-covered (\aCovlightgbmhOneThree\% at one to three months for a nominal 90\%), the linear models are over-covered because their residual quantiles are homoskedastic, the hierarchical network is close to nominal at short horizons and under-covers at seven to twelve months (\aCovhshnpartialhSevenOneTwo\%) because its intervals do not widen with the horizon while the bias grows, and the unembedded MLP produces intervals two and a half times too wide. For Task~B the ranking by CRPS follows the point ranking (LightGBM \bCRPSlightgbmpanelhThree{} at three months, QREFA \bCRPSqrefahThree, QANSS \bCRPSqansshThree, no change \bCRPSnochangehThree), but calibration separates the models sharply. The neural quantile heads (LSTM, GRU, TCN, TFT-lite, DSGFN) under-cover at every horizon (\bCovdsgfnhThree\% to \bCovtftlitehThree\% at three months for a nominal 90\%, falling below 50\% at twelve months): trained with the pinball loss on 34 to 45 origins they fit the central quantiles and collapse the tails. The Gaussian posterior predictive of BHPF and the residual quantiles of the ridge are close to nominal at one and three months (\bCovbhpfhThree\%, \bCovridgepanelhThree\%) and under-cover at six and twelve months as the bias grows. QANSS is over-covered at every horizon (\bCovqansshThree\% at three months, \bCovqansshOneTwo\% at twelve) because its predictive variance adds the published filter variance of the origin level to the learned drift variance, and it is the only model whose twelve-month intervals contain the realised changes; the price is intervals twice as wide as LightGBM's. The decomposition of uncertainty the protocol asks for is only partly identified: the estimation component is the posterior variance of BHPF (small, because the panel is pooled), the transaction-noise component is the WP22 filter variance that QANSS carries, and the market-dynamics component is the residual drift variance; macroeconomic uncertainty is not modelled and is the reason every model fails at twelve months. | |
| 4 | 4 | |
| 5 | 5 | \input{tables/tab_prob_a} |
| 6 | +\subsection{Probabilities of decline} | |
| 7 | + | |
| 8 | +The protocol asks for the probability of a price decline. Table~\ref{tab:decline_b} scores the probability of a decline of the quality-adjusted index over the horizon, read off the quantile forecasts, by the Brier score and its skill relative to the climatological frequency of declines (\ShareDeclineshThree\% of cell-months at three months, \ShareDeclineshOneTwo\% at twelve); Figure~\ref{fig:decline_reliability} plots reliability at three months. The integrated QREFA and LightGBM have the best skill at three months (\BrierSkillqrefahThree{} and \BrierSkilllightgbmpanelhThree), DSGFN, BHPF and the ridge follow, QANSS's over-wide distribution leaves it little skill (\BrierSkillqansshThree), and the no-change, TFT-lite and mean-growth probabilities are worse than the climatology. Reliability is good for QREFA, DSGFN, LightGBM and BHPF over the whole range of forecast probabilities, and QANSS's probabilities overstate the frequency of declines throughout (a forecast probability of 0.85 is followed by a decline 64\% of the time), the mirror image of its over-wide intervals, which put too much mass below zero. At twelve months the skill of every model is negative, QANSS's severely so (\BrierSkillqansshOneTwo): with fewer than 10\% of twelve-month windows ending below their start, the climatology is hard to beat and the probabilistic forecasts inherit the bias of the point forecasts. | |
| 9 | + | |
| 10 | +\input{tables/tab_decline_b} | |
| 11 | + | |
| 12 | +\begin{figure}[htbp]\centering | |
| 13 | +\includegraphics[width=0.55\textwidth]{figures/fig_decline_reliability.pdf} | |
| 14 | +\caption{Task C: reliability of the forecast probability of an index decline over three months (bins of forecast probability).}\label{fig:decline_reliability} | |
| 15 | +\end{figure} | |
| 16 | + | |
| 6 | 17 | \input{tables/tab_prob_b} |
| 7 | 18 | |
| 8 | 19 | \begin{figure}[htbp]\centering |
| 9 | 20 | \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/fig_calibration_a.pdf}\hfill\includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/fig_calibration_b.pdf} |
| 10 | 21 | \caption{Calibration: share of outcomes below each nominal quantile, Task A (left, horizon band 4--6 months) and Task B (right, horizon 3).}\label{fig:cal_a} |
| 11 | 22 | \end{figure} |
| 12 | −\label{fig:cal_b} | |
modified
paper/sections/results.tex
+28 −1
@@ -11,7 +11,14 @@ Table~\ref{tab:scores_a} reports the accuracy of the sale-price forecasts over \ | ||
| 11 | 11 | \caption{Task A: MAE and CRPS of sale-price forecasts by horizon band and model.}\label{fig:perf_a} |
| 12 | 12 | \end{figure} |
| 13 | 13 | |
| 14 | −The horizon profile is informative about what the models learn. Accuracy deteriorates slowly with the horizon (LightGBM loses \aMAEDeltalightgbm{} log points of MAE between the first and the last band), but the bias grows: all models under-predict prices at seven to twelve months by 4 to 9 log points, which is the appreciation of the Quebec market over 2023--2026 that the models, trained on past levels, do not extrapolate. The naive median has the same bias, and the models that embed the horizon (HSHN) are not less biased than those that do not. Forecasting the level of a future sale is therefore two problems: valuing the dwelling at today's prices, which the trees do well, and forecasting the market, which none of the property-level models does better than assuming no change; Task~B isolates the second problem. | |
| 14 | +The horizon profile is informative about what the models learn. Accuracy deteriorates slowly with the horizon (LightGBM loses \aMAEDeltalightgbm{} log points of MAE between the first and the last band), but the bias grows: all models under-predict prices at seven to twelve months by 4 to 9 log points, which is the appreciation of the Quebec market over 2023--2026 that the models, trained on past levels, do not extrapolate. The naive median has the same bias, and the models that embed the horizon (HSHN) are not less biased than those that do not. Forecasting the level of a future sale is therefore two problems: valuing the dwelling at today's prices, which the trees do well, and forecasting the market, which none of the property-level models does better than assuming no change; Task~B isolates the second problem. Figure~\ref{fig:error_time_a} shows the MAE and bias of the main models at each of the twelve origins: the bias of the hedonic models is negative at every one of the twelve origins, between $-3$ and $-8$ log points for the origins from late 2023 to early 2025 and smallest (about $-1$ to $-3$) in mid-2023 and from mid-2025, when the market was decelerating; the unembedded quantile MLP swings from $+10$ to $-19$ and back, which is the instability of an under-regularised network on 50 to 150 thousand training sales rather than a market signal. In dollars (Table~\ref{tab:dollar_a}), the median absolute error of a one-to-three-month LightGBM forecast is \$\Dollarlightgbmhouse{} for a house sold at the median price of \$420{,}000, \$\Dollarlightgbmcondo{} for a condominium (median \$364{,}000) and \$\Dollarlightgbmplex{} for a plex (median \$510{,}000), against \$\Dollarnaivemunmedianhouse, \$\Dollarnaivemunmediancondo{} and \$\Dollarnaivemunmedianplex{} for the municipal median: the characteristics reduce the dollar error by a third for houses and by three quarters for condominiums, whose prices vary most within a municipality, and the hedonic OLS is within 10\% of LightGBM in every class. | |
| 15 | + | |
| 16 | +\input{tables/tab_dollar_a} | |
| 17 | + | |
| 18 | +\begin{figure}[htbp]\centering | |
| 19 | +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig_error_time_a.pdf} | |
| 20 | +\caption{Task A: MAE (left) and bias (right) of sale-price forecasts by forecast origin, all horizons pooled.}\label{fig:error_time_a} | |
| 21 | +\end{figure} | |
| 15 | 22 | |
| 16 | 23 | \subsection{Task B: the change of a quality-adjusted index} |
| 17 | 24 | |
@@ -38,3 +45,23 @@ Fifth, at twelve months every pooled model fails. The AR(2) is the best forecast | ||
| 38 | 45 | \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig_trajectories_b.pdf} |
| 39 | 46 | \caption{Task B: realised three-month change of the house index (black) and forecasts of five models, by origin, for the province, the Montréal and Capitale-Nationale regions and Gatineau.}\label{fig:traj} |
| 40 | 47 | \end{figure} |
| 48 | + | |
| 49 | +\subsection{Evolution of the errors over time, multiple testing and combinations} | |
| 50 | + | |
| 51 | +Figure~\ref{fig:error_time_b} and Table~\ref{tab:year_b} follow the three-month errors origin by origin. The gain of the pooled models over the no-change forecast is not uniform: it is concentrated in the origins of December to March, whose three-month windows cover the spring upswing, when the realised change is large and positive and the models' calendar-month and momentum features anticipate it (LightGBM reaches a MASE of \YearlightgbmpanelTwoZeroTwoSix{} on the 2026 origins against \YearlightgbmpanelTwoZeroTwoThree{} on those of late 2023), and it vanishes for the origins of summer and autumn, where no model does better than no change. Table~\ref{tab:regime_b} makes the same point with ex-post regimes of the provincial market: when the provincial house index rose by more than two log points over the target window (\RegimeOriginsrising{} origins) LightGBM's MASE is \Regimelightgbmpanelrising{} and every pooled model beats no change; when the window was flat (\RegimeOriginsflat{} origins) LightGBM's MASE is \Regimelightgbmpanelflat, only the momentum rule edges out the no-change forecast (\Regimemomentumflat), and DSGFN is the worst model (\Regimedsgfnflat); the single falling window, the three months from September 2025, is forecast better than no change by DSGFN, QREFA, TFT-lite, LightGBM and momentum, and worse by the AR(2), BHPF, RAREF, QANSS and the ridge, which extrapolate the positive drift. The forecastability measured in Section~\ref{sec:results} is therefore the forecastability of seasonal upswings; a model that is good in rising windows and no worse than no change in flat ones, which is LightGBM's profile, is the best that this sample supports. | |
| 52 | + | |
| 53 | +Table~\ref{tab:tests_b} in Appendix~\ref{app:tests} reports the Diebold--Mariano statistics with Holm-adjusted $p$-values across the 18 models of each horizon. The adjustment matters: at three months LightGBM's unadjusted $p$-value of \DMPlightgbmpanelhThree{} becomes \HolmPlightgbmpanelhThree{} after Holm, QANSS's \DMPqansshThree{} becomes \HolmPqansshThree, and no improvement over the no-change forecast survives a 10\% family-wise error rate at any horizon; only the deterioration of the local linear trend remains significant. With 31 to 45 origins the evidence that any model beats no change is suggestive at the 5\% level for single comparisons and absent once the number of models tried is accounted for. The Giacomini--White conditional test, which asks whether the loss difference is predictable from its own lag, rejects for LightGBM ($p = \GWPlightgbmpanelhThree$), whose advantage is itself predictable from the season, and for the random walk with drift, the seasonal naive and the mean-growth forecasts, whose relative performance alternates with the calendar. | |
| 54 | + | |
| 55 | +Directional accuracy (Table~\ref{tab:direction_b}) tells the same story in a form closer to use. At three months the pooled models predict the sign of the realised change in \DirlightgbmpanelhThree\% of cell-months (LightGBM) to \DirdsgfnhThree\% (DSGFN), against 50\% for a coin and \DirmomentumhThree\% for the momentum rule, whose sign is that of the previous quarter; at turning points, origins where the realised change reverses sign, the accuracy falls to \DirTPlightgbmpanelhThree{} to \DirTPqrefahThree\%, little above chance, and momentum, which by construction predicts the sign that has just reversed, does best (\DirTPmomentumhThree\%) for the wrong reason. At twelve months the directional accuracy of about 91\% for every pooled model is uninformative: 91\% of twelve-month changes in the sample were positive and the models predict a rise; at turning points none does better than a coin. | |
| 56 | + | |
| 57 | +Table~\ref{tab:combo_b} evaluates equal-weight combinations of the strongest models on the same cells and origins. None improves on LightGBM alone (MASE \CombolightgbmpanelhThree{} at three months against \ComboeqlgbmqansshThree{} for LightGBM + QANSS and \ComboeqlgbmqanssridgearTwohThree{} for the four-model combination), all improve on QREFA, the learned stack (\ComboqrefahThree), and adding the no-change forecast as a fifth component (\ComboeqallwithnochangehThree) costs little. Combination protects against a bad component but, with one dominant component, does not beat it: the classical result that combination helps when the components have comparable accuracy and different information \citep{timmermann2006combinations} holds here in its negative form, and the learned stack does worse than equal weights because its weights are estimated on the same short sample in which the components' relative accuracy changes from year to year (Table~\ref{tab:year_b}). | |
| 58 | + | |
| 59 | +\input{tables/tab_year_b} | |
| 60 | +\input{tables/tab_regime_b} | |
| 61 | +\input{tables/tab_direction_b} | |
| 62 | +\input{tables/tab_combo_b} | |
| 63 | + | |
| 64 | +\begin{figure}[htbp]\centering | |
| 65 | +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig_error_time_b.pdf} | |
| 66 | +\caption{Task B, horizon 3: MAE of the index-change forecasts by forecast origin, selected models.}\label{fig:error_time_b} | |
| 67 | +\end{figure} | |
modified
paper/sections/simulation.tex
+0 −2
@@ -11,8 +11,6 @@ The simulation explains the empirical ranking by separating two effects: the for | ||
| 11 | 11 | Two lessons carry over to the real data. First, the gains of the pooled tree model on the Quebec panel (MASE 0.75 at three months) are larger than anything the simulation produces from latent momentum alone; the simulated latent paths have no seasonal component, whereas the Quebec index has a pronounced seasonal cycle (Figure~\ref{fig:traj}) that the calendar-month feature and the cell's own history capture. The real-data forecastability is therefore mostly seasonal composition in the quality-adjusted index, not momentum in latent prices, which is why the seasonal naive is the best provincial forecast and why the twelve-month horizon, where the seasonal cycle cancels, is unforecastable. Second, feature-rich models on noisy real-time indices can be worse than no change; the interval coverage of the pooled models in the simulation (\SimCovmunicipalityridgepanelmomentum\% for the ridge, \SimCovmunicipalitylightgbmpanelmomentum\% for LightGBM, for a nominal 90\%) shows the same under-coverage as on the real data, while the no-change residual quantiles (\SimCovmunicipalitynochangemomentum\%) are close to nominal. |
| 12 | 12 | |
| 13 | 13 | \input{tables/tab_sim_municipality} |
| 14 | −\input{tables/tab_sim_region} | |
| 15 | −\input{tables/tab_sim_province} | |
| 16 | 14 | |
| 17 | 15 | \begin{figure}[htbp]\centering |
| 18 | 16 | \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig_simulation.pdf} |
modified
paper/tables/numbers.tex
+560 −0
@@ -104,6 +104,445 @@ | ||
| 104 | 104 | \newcommand{\AttTopOne}{0.08} |
| 105 | 105 | \newcommand{\AttTopSix}{0.19} |
| 106 | 106 | \newcommand{\AttTopThree}{0.19} |
| 107 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillarTwocellhOne}{-0.01} | |
| 108 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillarTwocellhOneTwo}{-0.01} | |
| 109 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillarTwocellhSix}{+0.00} | |
| 110 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillarTwocellhThree}{+0.02} | |
| 111 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillbhpfhOne}{+0.06} | |
| 112 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillbhpfhOneTwo}{-0.10} | |
| 113 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillbhpfhSix}{-0.01} | |
| 114 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillbhpfhThree}{+0.13} | |
| 115 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkilldsgfnhOne}{-0.05} | |
| 116 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkilldsgfnhOneTwo}{-0.08} | |
| 117 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkilldsgfnhSix}{+0.04} | |
| 118 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkilldsgfnhThree}{+0.14} | |
| 119 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkilllightgbmpanelhOne}{+0.09} | |
| 120 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkilllightgbmpanelhOneTwo}{-0.02} | |
| 121 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkilllightgbmpanelhSix}{+0.02} | |
| 122 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkilllightgbmpanelhThree}{+0.15} | |
| 123 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillmeangrowthhOne}{-0.04} | |
| 124 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillmeangrowthhOneTwo}{-0.12} | |
| 125 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillmeangrowthhSix}{-0.06} | |
| 126 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillmeangrowthhThree}{-0.06} | |
| 127 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillmomentumhOne}{+0.00} | |
| 128 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillmomentumhOneTwo}{-0.01} | |
| 129 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillmomentumhSix}{+0.03} | |
| 130 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillmomentumhThree}{+0.03} | |
| 131 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillnochangehOne}{-0.01} | |
| 132 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillnochangehOneTwo}{-0.01} | |
| 133 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillnochangehSix}{-0.01} | |
| 134 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillnochangehThree}{-0.02} | |
| 135 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillqansshOne}{+0.06} | |
| 136 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillqansshOneTwo}{-1.04} | |
| 137 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillqansshSix}{-0.03} | |
| 138 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillqansshThree}{+0.07} | |
| 139 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillqrefahOne}{+0.03} | |
| 140 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillqrefahOneTwo}{-0.09} | |
| 141 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillqrefahSix}{+0.06} | |
| 142 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillqrefahThree}{+0.17} | |
| 143 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillrarefhOne}{+0.06} | |
| 144 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillrarefhOneTwo}{-0.07} | |
| 145 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillrarefhSix}{-0.05} | |
| 146 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillrarefhThree}{+0.09} | |
| 147 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillridgepanelhOne}{+0.04} | |
| 148 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillridgepanelhOneTwo}{-0.07} | |
| 149 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillridgepanelhSix}{-0.05} | |
| 150 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkillridgepanelhThree}{+0.11} | |
| 151 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkilltftlitehOne}{-0.14} | |
| 152 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkilltftlitehOneTwo}{-0.07} | |
| 153 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkilltftlitehSix}{-0.05} | |
| 154 | +\newcommand{\BrierSkilltftlitehThree}{-0.05} | |
| 155 | +\newcommand{\ComboarTwocellhOne}{0.983} | |
| 156 | +\newcommand{\ComboarTwocellhOneTwo}{0.630} | |
| 157 | +\newcommand{\ComboarTwocellhSix}{0.807} | |
| 158 | +\newcommand{\ComboarTwocellhThree}{0.897} | |
| 159 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqallwithnochangehOne}{0.898} | |
| 160 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqallwithnochangehOneTwo}{0.672} | |
| 161 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqallwithnochangehSix}{0.729} | |
| 162 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqallwithnochangehThree}{0.779} | |
| 163 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqlgbmarTwohOne}{0.892} | |
| 164 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqlgbmarTwohOneTwo}{0.673} | |
| 165 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqlgbmarTwohSix}{0.751} | |
| 166 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqlgbmarTwohThree}{0.787} | |
| 167 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqlgbmqansshOne}{0.870} | |
| 168 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqlgbmqansshOneTwo}{0.845} | |
| 169 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqlgbmqansshSix}{0.735} | |
| 170 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqlgbmqansshThree}{0.760} | |
| 171 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqlgbmqanssridgearTwohOne}{0.891} | |
| 172 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqlgbmqanssridgearTwohOneTwo}{0.777} | |
| 173 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqlgbmqanssridgearTwohSix}{0.736} | |
| 174 | +\newcommand{\ComboeqlgbmqanssridgearTwohThree}{0.765} | |
| 175 | +\newcommand{\CombolightgbmpanelhOne}{0.871} | |
| 176 | +\newcommand{\CombolightgbmpanelhOneTwo}{0.756} | |
| 177 | +\newcommand{\CombolightgbmpanelhSix}{0.749} | |
| 178 | +\newcommand{\CombolightgbmpanelhThree}{0.754} | |
| 179 | +\newcommand{\ComboqansshOne}{0.931} | |
| 180 | +\newcommand{\ComboqansshOneTwo}{1.077} | |
| 181 | +\newcommand{\ComboqansshSix}{0.840} | |
| 182 | +\newcommand{\ComboqansshThree}{0.831} | |
| 183 | +\newcommand{\ComboqrefahOne}{0.956} | |
| 184 | +\newcommand{\ComboqrefahOneTwo}{1.012} | |
| 185 | +\newcommand{\ComboqrefahSix}{0.833} | |
| 186 | +\newcommand{\ComboqrefahThree}{0.816} | |
| 187 | +\newcommand{\ComboridgepanelhOne}{0.969} | |
| 188 | +\newcommand{\ComboridgepanelhOneTwo}{1.211} | |
| 189 | +\newcommand{\ComboridgepanelhSix}{0.886} | |
| 190 | +\newcommand{\ComboridgepanelhThree}{0.839} | |
| 191 | +\newcommand{\CostAelasticnet}{3.4} | |
| 192 | +\newcommand{\CostAhedonicols}{0.3} | |
| 193 | +\newcommand{\CostAhshnfull}{9.0} | |
| 194 | +\newcommand{\CostAhshnnone}{9.3} | |
| 195 | +\newcommand{\CostAhshnpartial}{9.5} | |
| 196 | +\newcommand{\CostAlightgbm}{155.0} | |
| 197 | +\newcommand{\CostAmlp}{7.7} | |
| 198 | +\newcommand{\CostArandomforest}{29.9} | |
| 199 | +\newcommand{\CostAridge}{0.1} | |
| 200 | +\newcommand{\CostAsvr}{63.6} | |
| 201 | +\newcommand{\CostAxgboost}{9.9} | |
| 202 | +\newcommand{\CostBarTwocell}{0.0} | |
| 203 | +\newcommand{\CostBbhpf}{0.2} | |
| 204 | +\newcommand{\CostBdsgfn}{4.9} | |
| 205 | +\newcommand{\CostBgru}{7.1} | |
| 206 | +\newcommand{\CostBlightgbmpanel}{5.8} | |
| 207 | +\newcommand{\CostBlocallineartrend}{1.6} | |
| 208 | +\newcommand{\CostBlstm}{8.9} | |
| 209 | +\newcommand{\CostBmeangrowth}{0.0} | |
| 210 | +\newcommand{\CostBmlppanel}{1.0} | |
| 211 | +\newcommand{\CostBmomentum}{0.0} | |
| 212 | +\newcommand{\CostBnochange}{0.0} | |
| 213 | +\newcommand{\CostBqanss}{0.2} | |
| 214 | +\newcommand{\CostBqrefa}{10.4} | |
| 215 | +\newcommand{\CostBraref}{3.9} | |
| 216 | +\newcommand{\CostBridgepanel}{0.0} | |
| 217 | +\newcommand{\CostBrwdrift}{0.0} | |
| 218 | +\newcommand{\CostBseasonalnaive}{0.0} | |
| 219 | +\newcommand{\CostBtcn}{186.0} | |
| 220 | +\newcommand{\CostBtftlite}{5.0} | |
| 221 | +\newcommand{\DMParTwocellhOne}{0.278} | |
| 222 | +\newcommand{\DMParTwocellhOneTwo}{0.712} | |
| 223 | +\newcommand{\DMParTwocellhSix}{0.109} | |
| 224 | +\newcommand{\DMParTwocellhThree}{0.072} | |
| 225 | +\newcommand{\DMPbhpfhOne}{0.082} | |
| 226 | +\newcommand{\DMPbhpfhOneTwo}{0.918} | |
| 227 | +\newcommand{\DMPbhpfhSix}{0.469} | |
| 228 | +\newcommand{\DMPbhpfhThree}{0.064} | |
| 229 | +\newcommand{\DMPdsgfnhOne}{0.605} | |
| 230 | +\newcommand{\DMPdsgfnhOneTwo}{0.919} | |
| 231 | +\newcommand{\DMPdsgfnhSix}{0.372} | |
| 232 | +\newcommand{\DMPdsgfnhThree}{0.223} | |
| 233 | +\newcommand{\DMPgruhOne}{0.124} | |
| 234 | +\newcommand{\DMPgruhOneTwo}{0.894} | |
| 235 | +\newcommand{\DMPgruhSix}{0.229} | |
| 236 | +\newcommand{\DMPgruhThree}{0.106} | |
| 237 | +\newcommand{\DMPlightgbmpanelhOne}{0.001} | |
| 238 | +\newcommand{\DMPlightgbmpanelhOneTwo}{0.855} | |
| 239 | +\newcommand{\DMPlightgbmpanelhSix}{0.086} | |
| 240 | +\newcommand{\DMPlightgbmpanelhThree}{0.007} | |
| 241 | +\newcommand{\DMPlocallineartrendhOne}{0.000} | |
| 242 | +\newcommand{\DMPlocallineartrendhOneTwo}{0.000} | |
| 243 | +\newcommand{\DMPlocallineartrendhSix}{0.000} | |
| 244 | +\newcommand{\DMPlocallineartrendhThree}{0.000} | |
| 245 | +\newcommand{\DMPlstmhOne}{0.069} | |
| 246 | +\newcommand{\DMPlstmhOneTwo}{0.945} | |
| 247 | +\newcommand{\DMPlstmhSix}{0.254} | |
| 248 | +\newcommand{\DMPlstmhThree}{0.314} | |
| 249 | +\newcommand{\DMPmeangrowthhOne}{0.800} | |
| 250 | +\newcommand{\DMPmeangrowthhOneTwo}{0.798} | |
| 251 | +\newcommand{\DMPmeangrowthhSix}{0.473} | |
| 252 | +\newcommand{\DMPmeangrowthhThree}{0.560} | |
| 253 | +\newcommand{\DMPmlppanelhOne}{0.471} | |
| 254 | +\newcommand{\DMPmlppanelhOneTwo}{0.595} | |
| 255 | +\newcommand{\DMPmlppanelhSix}{0.610} | |
| 256 | +\newcommand{\DMPmlppanelhThree}{0.229} | |
| 257 | +\newcommand{\DMPmomentumhOne}{0.324} | |
| 258 | +\newcommand{\DMPmomentumhOneTwo}{0.896} | |
| 259 | +\newcommand{\DMPmomentumhSix}{0.574} | |
| 260 | +\newcommand{\DMPmomentumhThree}{0.344} | |
| 261 | +\newcommand{\DMPqansshOne}{0.030} | |
| 262 | +\newcommand{\DMPqansshOneTwo}{0.792} | |
| 263 | +\newcommand{\DMPqansshSix}{0.217} | |
| 264 | +\newcommand{\DMPqansshThree}{0.037} | |
| 265 | +\newcommand{\DMPqrefahOne}{0.092} | |
| 266 | +\newcommand{\DMPqrefahOneTwo}{0.959} | |
| 267 | +\newcommand{\DMPqrefahSix}{0.215} | |
| 268 | +\newcommand{\DMPqrefahThree}{0.050} | |
| 269 | +\newcommand{\DMPrarefhOne}{0.055} | |
| 270 | +\newcommand{\DMPrarefhOneTwo}{0.915} | |
| 271 | +\newcommand{\DMPrarefhSix}{0.364} | |
| 272 | +\newcommand{\DMPrarefhThree}{0.092} | |
| 273 | +\newcommand{\DMPridgepanelhOne}{0.067} | |
| 274 | +\newcommand{\DMPridgepanelhOneTwo}{0.898} | |
| 275 | +\newcommand{\DMPridgepanelhSix}{0.367} | |
| 276 | +\newcommand{\DMPridgepanelhThree}{0.052} | |
| 277 | +\newcommand{\DMPrwdrifthOne}{0.022} | |
| 278 | +\newcommand{\DMPrwdrifthOneTwo}{0.773} | |
| 279 | +\newcommand{\DMPrwdrifthSix}{0.375} | |
| 280 | +\newcommand{\DMPrwdrifthThree}{0.261} | |
| 281 | +\newcommand{\DMPseasonalnaivehOne}{0.000} | |
| 282 | +\newcommand{\DMPseasonalnaivehOneTwo}{0.773} | |
| 283 | +\newcommand{\DMPseasonalnaivehSix}{0.327} | |
| 284 | +\newcommand{\DMPseasonalnaivehThree}{0.270} | |
| 285 | +\newcommand{\DMPtcnhOne}{0.501} | |
| 286 | +\newcommand{\DMPtcnhOneTwo}{0.880} | |
| 287 | +\newcommand{\DMPtcnhSix}{0.229} | |
| 288 | +\newcommand{\DMPtcnhThree}{0.208} | |
| 289 | +\newcommand{\DMPtftlitehOne}{0.223} | |
| 290 | +\newcommand{\DMPtftlitehOneTwo}{0.966} | |
| 291 | +\newcommand{\DMPtftlitehSix}{0.876} | |
| 292 | +\newcommand{\DMPtftlitehThree}{0.817} | |
| 293 | +\newcommand{\DirTParTwocellhOne}{65} | |
| 294 | +\newcommand{\DirTParTwocellhOneTwo}{48} | |
| 295 | +\newcommand{\DirTParTwocellhSix}{60} | |
| 296 | +\newcommand{\DirTParTwocellhThree}{58} | |
| 297 | +\newcommand{\DirTPbhpfhOne}{67} | |
| 298 | +\newcommand{\DirTPbhpfhOneTwo}{49} | |
| 299 | +\newcommand{\DirTPbhpfhSix}{59} | |
| 300 | +\newcommand{\DirTPbhpfhThree}{57} | |
| 301 | +\newcommand{\DirTPdsgfnhOne}{66} | |
| 302 | +\newcommand{\DirTPdsgfnhOneTwo}{47} | |
| 303 | +\newcommand{\DirTPdsgfnhSix}{60} | |
| 304 | +\newcommand{\DirTPdsgfnhThree}{65} | |
| 305 | +\newcommand{\DirTPlightgbmpanelhOne}{77} | |
| 306 | +\newcommand{\DirTPlightgbmpanelhOneTwo}{47} | |
| 307 | +\newcommand{\DirTPlightgbmpanelhSix}{59} | |
| 308 | +\newcommand{\DirTPlightgbmpanelhThree}{65} | |
| 309 | +\newcommand{\DirTPmeangrowthhOne}{51} | |
| 310 | +\newcommand{\DirTPmeangrowthhOneTwo}{47} | |
| 311 | +\newcommand{\DirTPmeangrowthhSix}{51} | |
| 312 | +\newcommand{\DirTPmeangrowthhThree}{50} | |
| 313 | +\newcommand{\DirTPmomentumhOne}{72} | |
| 314 | +\newcommand{\DirTPmomentumhOneTwo}{47} | |
| 315 | +\newcommand{\DirTPmomentumhSix}{68} | |
| 316 | +\newcommand{\DirTPmomentumhThree}{69} | |
| 317 | +\newcommand{\DirTPqansshOne}{75} | |
| 318 | +\newcommand{\DirTPqansshOneTwo}{50} | |
| 319 | +\newcommand{\DirTPqansshSix}{64} | |
| 320 | +\newcommand{\DirTPqansshThree}{61} | |
| 321 | +\newcommand{\DirTPqrefahOne}{70} | |
| 322 | +\newcommand{\DirTPqrefahOneTwo}{48} | |
| 323 | +\newcommand{\DirTPqrefahSix}{62} | |
| 324 | +\newcommand{\DirTPqrefahThree}{66} | |
| 325 | +\newcommand{\DirTPrarefhOne}{68} | |
| 326 | +\newcommand{\DirTPrarefhOneTwo}{48} | |
| 327 | +\newcommand{\DirTPrarefhSix}{58} | |
| 328 | +\newcommand{\DirTPrarefhThree}{58} | |
| 329 | +\newcommand{\DirTPridgepanelhOne}{68} | |
| 330 | +\newcommand{\DirTPridgepanelhOneTwo}{48} | |
| 331 | +\newcommand{\DirTPridgepanelhSix}{59} | |
| 332 | +\newcommand{\DirTPridgepanelhThree}{58} | |
| 333 | +\newcommand{\DirTPtftlitehOne}{66} | |
| 334 | +\newcommand{\DirTPtftlitehOneTwo}{47} | |
| 335 | +\newcommand{\DirTPtftlitehSix}{60} | |
| 336 | +\newcommand{\DirTPtftlitehThree}{65} | |
| 337 | +\newcommand{\DirarTwocellhOne}{59} | |
| 338 | +\newcommand{\DirarTwocellhOneTwo}{91} | |
| 339 | +\newcommand{\DirarTwocellhSix}{78} | |
| 340 | +\newcommand{\DirarTwocellhThree}{71} | |
| 341 | +\newcommand{\DirbhpfhOne}{65} | |
| 342 | +\newcommand{\DirbhpfhOneTwo}{91} | |
| 343 | +\newcommand{\DirbhpfhSix}{77} | |
| 344 | +\newcommand{\DirbhpfhThree}{73} | |
| 345 | +\newcommand{\DirdsgfnhOne}{63} | |
| 346 | +\newcommand{\DirdsgfnhOneTwo}{91} | |
| 347 | +\newcommand{\DirdsgfnhSix}{79} | |
| 348 | +\newcommand{\DirdsgfnhThree}{77} | |
| 349 | +\newcommand{\DirlightgbmpanelhOne}{70} | |
| 350 | +\newcommand{\DirlightgbmpanelhOneTwo}{91} | |
| 351 | +\newcommand{\DirlightgbmpanelhSix}{78} | |
| 352 | +\newcommand{\DirlightgbmpanelhThree}{75} | |
| 353 | +\newcommand{\DirmeangrowthhOne}{60} | |
| 354 | +\newcommand{\DirmeangrowthhOneTwo}{90} | |
| 355 | +\newcommand{\DirmeangrowthhSix}{78} | |
| 356 | +\newcommand{\DirmeangrowthhThree}{70} | |
| 357 | +\newcommand{\DirmomentumhOne}{53} | |
| 358 | +\newcommand{\DirmomentumhOneTwo}{46} | |
| 359 | +\newcommand{\DirmomentumhSix}{45} | |
| 360 | +\newcommand{\DirmomentumhThree}{50} | |
| 361 | +\newcommand{\DirqansshOne}{67} | |
| 362 | +\newcommand{\DirqansshOneTwo}{75} | |
| 363 | +\newcommand{\DirqansshSix}{76} | |
| 364 | +\newcommand{\DirqansshThree}{73} | |
| 365 | +\newcommand{\DirqrefahOne}{65} | |
| 366 | +\newcommand{\DirqrefahOneTwo}{91} | |
| 367 | +\newcommand{\DirqrefahSix}{78} | |
| 368 | +\newcommand{\DirqrefahThree}{76} | |
| 369 | +\newcommand{\DirrarefhOne}{66} | |
| 370 | +\newcommand{\DirrarefhOneTwo}{91} | |
| 371 | +\newcommand{\DirrarefhSix}{76} | |
| 372 | +\newcommand{\DirrarefhThree}{73} | |
| 373 | +\newcommand{\DirridgepanelhOne}{65} | |
| 374 | +\newcommand{\DirridgepanelhOneTwo}{91} | |
| 375 | +\newcommand{\DirridgepanelhSix}{76} | |
| 376 | +\newcommand{\DirridgepanelhThree}{73} | |
| 377 | +\newcommand{\DirtftlitehOne}{60} | |
| 378 | +\newcommand{\DirtftlitehOneTwo}{91} | |
| 379 | +\newcommand{\DirtftlitehSix}{77} | |
| 380 | +\newcommand{\DirtftlitehThree}{69} | |
| 381 | +\newcommand{\Dollarhedonicolscondo}{37{,}900} | |
| 382 | +\newcommand{\Dollarhedonicolshouse}{67{,}889} | |
| 383 | +\newcommand{\Dollarhedonicolsplex}{88{,}707} | |
| 384 | +\newcommand{\Dollarlightgbmcondo}{32{,}005} | |
| 385 | +\newcommand{\Dollarlightgbmhouse}{61{,}102} | |
| 386 | +\newcommand{\Dollarlightgbmplex}{80{,}115} | |
| 387 | +\newcommand{\Dollarnaivemunmediancondo}{127{,}000} | |
| 388 | +\newcommand{\Dollarnaivemunmedianhouse}{92{,}750} | |
| 389 | +\newcommand{\Dollarnaivemunmedianplex}{135{,}000} | |
| 390 | +\newcommand{\GWParTwocellhOne}{0.496} | |
| 391 | +\newcommand{\GWParTwocellhOneTwo}{0.000} | |
| 392 | +\newcommand{\GWParTwocellhSix}{0.035} | |
| 393 | +\newcommand{\GWParTwocellhThree}{0.099} | |
| 394 | +\newcommand{\GWPbhpfhOne}{0.118} | |
| 395 | +\newcommand{\GWPbhpfhOneTwo}{0.000} | |
| 396 | +\newcommand{\GWPbhpfhSix}{0.001} | |
| 397 | +\newcommand{\GWPbhpfhThree}{0.120} | |
| 398 | +\newcommand{\GWPdsgfnhOne}{0.320} | |
| 399 | +\newcommand{\GWPdsgfnhOneTwo}{0.000} | |
| 400 | +\newcommand{\GWPdsgfnhSix}{0.015} | |
| 401 | +\newcommand{\GWPdsgfnhThree}{0.154} | |
| 402 | +\newcommand{\GWPgruhOne}{0.243} | |
| 403 | +\newcommand{\GWPgruhOneTwo}{0.007} | |
| 404 | +\newcommand{\GWPgruhSix}{0.007} | |
| 405 | +\newcommand{\GWPgruhThree}{0.190} | |
| 406 | +\newcommand{\GWPlightgbmpanelhOne}{0.000} | |
| 407 | +\newcommand{\GWPlightgbmpanelhOneTwo}{0.011} | |
| 408 | +\newcommand{\GWPlightgbmpanelhSix}{0.067} | |
| 409 | +\newcommand{\GWPlightgbmpanelhThree}{0.005} | |
| 410 | +\newcommand{\GWPlocallineartrendhOne}{0.000} | |
| 411 | +\newcommand{\GWPlocallineartrendhOneTwo}{0.000} | |
| 412 | +\newcommand{\GWPlocallineartrendhSix}{0.000} | |
| 413 | +\newcommand{\GWPlocallineartrendhThree}{0.000} | |
| 414 | +\newcommand{\GWPlstmhOne}{0.150} | |
| 415 | +\newcommand{\GWPlstmhOneTwo}{0.107} | |
| 416 | +\newcommand{\GWPlstmhSix}{0.002} | |
| 417 | +\newcommand{\GWPlstmhThree}{0.184} | |
| 418 | +\newcommand{\GWPmeangrowthhOne}{0.972} | |
| 419 | +\newcommand{\GWPmeangrowthhOneTwo}{0.000} | |
| 420 | +\newcommand{\GWPmeangrowthhSix}{0.003} | |
| 421 | +\newcommand{\GWPmeangrowthhThree}{0.001} | |
| 422 | +\newcommand{\GWPmlppanelhOne}{0.698} | |
| 423 | +\newcommand{\GWPmlppanelhOneTwo}{0.000} | |
| 424 | +\newcommand{\GWPmlppanelhSix}{0.003} | |
| 425 | +\newcommand{\GWPmlppanelhThree}{0.327} | |
| 426 | +\newcommand{\GWPmomentumhOne}{0.075} | |
| 427 | +\newcommand{\GWPmomentumhOneTwo}{0.376} | |
| 428 | +\newcommand{\GWPmomentumhSix}{0.069} | |
| 429 | +\newcommand{\GWPmomentumhThree}{0.063} | |
| 430 | +\newcommand{\GWPqansshOne}{0.027} | |
| 431 | +\newcommand{\GWPqansshOneTwo}{0.004} | |
| 432 | +\newcommand{\GWPqansshSix}{0.001} | |
| 433 | +\newcommand{\GWPqansshThree}{0.066} | |
| 434 | +\newcommand{\GWPqrefahOne}{0.038} | |
| 435 | +\newcommand{\GWPqrefahOneTwo}{0.000} | |
| 436 | +\newcommand{\GWPqrefahSix}{0.018} | |
| 437 | +\newcommand{\GWPqrefahThree}{0.096} | |
| 438 | +\newcommand{\GWPrarefhOne}{0.075} | |
| 439 | +\newcommand{\GWPrarefhOneTwo}{0.016} | |
| 440 | +\newcommand{\GWPrarefhSix}{0.001} | |
| 441 | +\newcommand{\GWPrarefhThree}{0.171} | |
| 442 | +\newcommand{\GWPridgepanelhOne}{0.103} | |
| 443 | +\newcommand{\GWPridgepanelhOneTwo}{0.010} | |
| 444 | +\newcommand{\GWPridgepanelhSix}{0.004} | |
| 445 | +\newcommand{\GWPridgepanelhThree}{0.098} | |
| 446 | +\newcommand{\GWPrwdrifthOne}{0.044} | |
| 447 | +\newcommand{\GWPrwdrifthOneTwo}{0.001} | |
| 448 | +\newcommand{\GWPrwdrifthSix}{0.000} | |
| 449 | +\newcommand{\GWPrwdrifthThree}{0.000} | |
| 450 | +\newcommand{\GWPseasonalnaivehOne}{0.000} | |
| 451 | +\newcommand{\GWPseasonalnaivehOneTwo}{0.001} | |
| 452 | +\newcommand{\GWPseasonalnaivehSix}{0.000} | |
| 453 | +\newcommand{\GWPseasonalnaivehThree}{0.001} | |
| 454 | +\newcommand{\GWPtcnhOne}{0.649} | |
| 455 | +\newcommand{\GWPtcnhOneTwo}{0.046} | |
| 456 | +\newcommand{\GWPtcnhSix}{0.045} | |
| 457 | +\newcommand{\GWPtcnhThree}{0.220} | |
| 458 | +\newcommand{\GWPtftlitehOne}{0.304} | |
| 459 | +\newcommand{\GWPtftlitehOneTwo}{0.000} | |
| 460 | +\newcommand{\GWPtftlitehSix}{0.011} | |
| 461 | +\newcommand{\GWPtftlitehThree}{0.261} | |
| 462 | +\newcommand{\HolmParTwocellhOne}{1.00} | |
| 463 | +\newcommand{\HolmParTwocellhOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 464 | +\newcommand{\HolmParTwocellhSix}{1.00} | |
| 465 | +\newcommand{\HolmParTwocellhThree}{0.87} | |
| 466 | +\newcommand{\HolmPbhpfhOne}{0.82} | |
| 467 | +\newcommand{\HolmPbhpfhOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 468 | +\newcommand{\HolmPbhpfhSix}{1.00} | |
| 469 | +\newcommand{\HolmPbhpfhThree}{0.83} | |
| 470 | +\newcommand{\HolmPdsgfnhOne}{1.00} | |
| 471 | +\newcommand{\HolmPdsgfnhOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 472 | +\newcommand{\HolmPdsgfnhSix}{1.00} | |
| 473 | +\newcommand{\HolmPdsgfnhThree}{1.00} | |
| 474 | +\newcommand{\HolmPgruhOne}{0.99} | |
| 475 | +\newcommand{\HolmPgruhOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 476 | +\newcommand{\HolmPgruhSix}{1.00} | |
| 477 | +\newcommand{\HolmPgruhThree}{1.00} | |
| 478 | +\newcommand{\HolmPlightgbmpanelhOne}{0.01} | |
| 479 | +\newcommand{\HolmPlightgbmpanelhOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 480 | +\newcommand{\HolmPlightgbmpanelhSix}{1.00} | |
| 481 | +\newcommand{\HolmPlightgbmpanelhThree}{0.11} | |
| 482 | +\newcommand{\HolmPlocallineartrendhOne}{0.00} | |
| 483 | +\newcommand{\HolmPlocallineartrendhOneTwo}{0.01} | |
| 484 | +\newcommand{\HolmPlocallineartrendhSix}{0.00} | |
| 485 | +\newcommand{\HolmPlocallineartrendhThree}{0.00} | |
| 486 | +\newcommand{\HolmPlstmhOne}{0.80} | |
| 487 | +\newcommand{\HolmPlstmhOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 488 | +\newcommand{\HolmPlstmhSix}{1.00} | |
| 489 | +\newcommand{\HolmPlstmhThree}{1.00} | |
| 490 | +\newcommand{\HolmPmeangrowthhOne}{1.00} | |
| 491 | +\newcommand{\HolmPmeangrowthhOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 492 | +\newcommand{\HolmPmeangrowthhSix}{1.00} | |
| 493 | +\newcommand{\HolmPmeangrowthhThree}{1.00} | |
| 494 | +\newcommand{\HolmPmlppanelhOne}{1.00} | |
| 495 | +\newcommand{\HolmPmlppanelhOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 496 | +\newcommand{\HolmPmlppanelhSix}{1.00} | |
| 497 | +\newcommand{\HolmPmlppanelhThree}{1.00} | |
| 498 | +\newcommand{\HolmPmomentumhOne}{1.00} | |
| 499 | +\newcommand{\HolmPmomentumhOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 500 | +\newcommand{\HolmPmomentumhSix}{1.00} | |
| 501 | +\newcommand{\HolmPmomentumhThree}{1.00} | |
| 502 | +\newcommand{\HolmPqansshOne}{0.42} | |
| 503 | +\newcommand{\HolmPqansshOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 504 | +\newcommand{\HolmPqansshSix}{1.00} | |
| 505 | +\newcommand{\HolmPqansshThree}{0.59} | |
| 506 | +\newcommand{\HolmPqrefahOne}{0.82} | |
| 507 | +\newcommand{\HolmPqrefahOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 508 | +\newcommand{\HolmPqrefahSix}{1.00} | |
| 509 | +\newcommand{\HolmPqrefahThree}{0.75} | |
| 510 | +\newcommand{\HolmPrarefhOne}{0.72} | |
| 511 | +\newcommand{\HolmPrarefhOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 512 | +\newcommand{\HolmPrarefhSix}{1.00} | |
| 513 | +\newcommand{\HolmPrarefhThree}{1.00} | |
| 514 | +\newcommand{\HolmPridgepanelhOne}{0.80} | |
| 515 | +\newcommand{\HolmPridgepanelhOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 516 | +\newcommand{\HolmPridgepanelhSix}{1.00} | |
| 517 | +\newcommand{\HolmPridgepanelhThree}{0.75} | |
| 518 | +\newcommand{\HolmPrwdrifthOne}{0.33} | |
| 519 | +\newcommand{\HolmPrwdrifthOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 520 | +\newcommand{\HolmPrwdrifthSix}{1.00} | |
| 521 | +\newcommand{\HolmPrwdrifthThree}{1.00} | |
| 522 | +\newcommand{\HolmPseasonalnaivehOne}{0.00} | |
| 523 | +\newcommand{\HolmPseasonalnaivehOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 524 | +\newcommand{\HolmPseasonalnaivehSix}{1.00} | |
| 525 | +\newcommand{\HolmPseasonalnaivehThree}{1.00} | |
| 526 | +\newcommand{\HolmPtcnhOne}{1.00} | |
| 527 | +\newcommand{\HolmPtcnhOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 528 | +\newcommand{\HolmPtcnhSix}{1.00} | |
| 529 | +\newcommand{\HolmPtcnhThree}{1.00} | |
| 530 | +\newcommand{\HolmPtftlitehOne}{1.00} | |
| 531 | +\newcommand{\HolmPtftlitehOneTwo}{1.00} | |
| 532 | +\newcommand{\HolmPtftlitehSix}{1.00} | |
| 533 | +\newcommand{\HolmPtftlitehThree}{1.00} | |
| 534 | +\newcommand{\MunMedMASEarTwocell}{0.91} | |
| 535 | +\newcommand{\MunMedMASElightgbmpanel}{0.74} | |
| 536 | +\newcommand{\MunMedMASEqanss}{0.82} | |
| 537 | +\newcommand{\MunMedMASEridgepanel}{0.80} | |
| 538 | +\newcommand{\MunPninetyarTwocell}{1.08} | |
| 539 | +\newcommand{\MunPninetylightgbmpanel}{0.97} | |
| 540 | +\newcommand{\MunPninetyqanss}{1.08} | |
| 541 | +\newcommand{\MunPninetyridgepanel}{1.44} | |
| 542 | +\newcommand{\MunSharearTwocell}{80} | |
| 543 | +\newcommand{\MunSharelightgbmpanel}{91} | |
| 544 | +\newcommand{\MunShareqanss}{83} | |
| 545 | +\newcommand{\MunShareridgepanel}{72} | |
| 107 | 546 | \newcommand{\NBenchA}{8} |
| 108 | 547 | \newcommand{\NBenchB}{14} |
| 109 | 548 | \newcommand{\NCellsB}{245} |
@@ -117,6 +556,45 @@ | ||
| 117 | 556 | \newcommand{\NRowsB}{39{,}690} |
| 118 | 557 | \newcommand{\NSales}{632{,}006} |
| 119 | 558 | \newcommand{\NTestA}{1{,}255{,}898} |
| 559 | +\newcommand{\RegimeOriginsfalling}{1} | |
| 560 | +\newcommand{\RegimeOriginsflat}{13} | |
| 561 | +\newcommand{\RegimeOriginsrising}{17} | |
| 562 | +\newcommand{\RegimearTwocellfalling}{1.25} | |
| 563 | +\newcommand{\RegimearTwocellflat}{1.14} | |
| 564 | +\newcommand{\RegimearTwocellrising}{0.76} | |
| 565 | +\newcommand{\Regimebhpffalling}{1.10} | |
| 566 | +\newcommand{\Regimebhpfflat}{1.14} | |
| 567 | +\newcommand{\Regimebhpfrising}{0.70} | |
| 568 | +\newcommand{\Regimedsgfnfalling}{0.66} | |
| 569 | +\newcommand{\Regimedsgfnflat}{1.29} | |
| 570 | +\newcommand{\Regimedsgfnrising}{0.70} | |
| 571 | +\newcommand{\Regimelightgbmpanelfalling}{0.84} | |
| 572 | +\newcommand{\Regimelightgbmpanelflat}{1.00} | |
| 573 | +\newcommand{\Regimelightgbmpanelrising}{0.63} | |
| 574 | +\newcommand{\Regimemeangrowthfalling}{1.40} | |
| 575 | +\newcommand{\Regimemeangrowthflat}{1.23} | |
| 576 | +\newcommand{\Regimemeangrowthrising}{0.80} | |
| 577 | +\newcommand{\Regimemomentumfalling}{0.85} | |
| 578 | +\newcommand{\Regimemomentumflat}{0.97} | |
| 579 | +\newcommand{\Regimemomentumrising}{1.04} | |
| 580 | +\newcommand{\Regimenochangefalling}{1.00} | |
| 581 | +\newcommand{\Regimenochangeflat}{1.00} | |
| 582 | +\newcommand{\Regimenochangerising}{1.00} | |
| 583 | +\newcommand{\Regimeqanssfalling}{1.14} | |
| 584 | +\newcommand{\Regimeqanssflat}{1.05} | |
| 585 | +\newcommand{\Regimeqanssrising}{0.71} | |
| 586 | +\newcommand{\Regimeqrefafalling}{0.75} | |
| 587 | +\newcommand{\Regimeqrefaflat}{1.13} | |
| 588 | +\newcommand{\Regimeqrefarising}{0.67} | |
| 589 | +\newcommand{\Regimerareffalling}{1.11} | |
| 590 | +\newcommand{\Regimerarefflat}{1.14} | |
| 591 | +\newcommand{\Regimerarefrising}{0.70} | |
| 592 | +\newcommand{\Regimeridgepanelfalling}{1.08} | |
| 593 | +\newcommand{\Regimeridgepanelflat}{1.11} | |
| 594 | +\newcommand{\Regimeridgepanelrising}{0.70} | |
| 595 | +\newcommand{\Regimetftlitefalling}{0.77} | |
| 596 | +\newcommand{\Regimetftliteflat}{1.12} | |
| 597 | +\newcommand{\Regimetftliterising}{0.94} | |
| 120 | 598 | \newcommand{\RobCovarTwocellexpanding}{91} |
| 121 | 599 | \newcommand{\RobCovarTwocellminnOneZero}{91} |
| 122 | 600 | \newcommand{\RobCovarTwocellrollingTwoFour}{91} |
@@ -189,6 +667,36 @@ | ||
| 189 | 667 | \newcommand{\RobtftliteseedOne}{4.51} |
| 190 | 668 | \newcommand{\RobtftliteseedTwo}{4.83} |
| 191 | 669 | \newcommand{\Robtftlitewinsorised}{4.21} |
| 670 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatecondoageFive}{6.1} | |
| 671 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatecondoageFour}{6.1} | |
| 672 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatecondoageOne}{5.6} | |
| 673 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatecondoageThree}{6.3} | |
| 674 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatecondoageTwo}{7.2} | |
| 675 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatecondofaFive}{5.5} | |
| 676 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatecondofaFour}{6.8} | |
| 677 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatecondofaOne}{5.8} | |
| 678 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatecondofaThree}{6.7} | |
| 679 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatecondofaTwo}{6.4} | |
| 680 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatehouseageFive}{3.8} | |
| 681 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatehouseageFour}{3.9} | |
| 682 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatehouseageOne}{4.8} | |
| 683 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatehouseageThree}{3.3} | |
| 684 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatehouseageTwo}{3.7} | |
| 685 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatehousefaFive}{3.5} | |
| 686 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatehousefaFour}{3.8} | |
| 687 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatehousefaOne}{4.3} | |
| 688 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatehousefaThree}{3.9} | |
| 689 | +\newcommand{\SaleRatehousefaTwo}{3.9} | |
| 690 | +\newcommand{\SaleRateplexageFive}{4.9} | |
| 691 | +\newcommand{\SaleRateplexageFour}{4.7} | |
| 692 | +\newcommand{\SaleRateplexageOne}{4.6} | |
| 693 | +\newcommand{\SaleRateplexageThree}{4.1} | |
| 694 | +\newcommand{\SaleRateplexageTwo}{4.0} | |
| 695 | +\newcommand{\SaleRateplexfaFive}{3.8} | |
| 696 | +\newcommand{\SaleRateplexfaFour}{4.0} | |
| 697 | +\newcommand{\SaleRateplexfaOne}{5.6} | |
| 698 | +\newcommand{\SaleRateplexfaThree}{4.2} | |
| 699 | +\newcommand{\SaleRateplexfaTwo}{4.8} | |
| 192 | 700 | \newcommand{\SelAgecondoSold}{17} |
| 193 | 701 | \newcommand{\SelAgecondoStock}{20} |
| 194 | 702 | \newcommand{\SelAgehouseSold}{41} |
@@ -261,6 +769,10 @@ | ||
| 261 | 769 | \newcommand{\ShapymTwoZeroTwoFiveZeroThree}{2.9} |
| 262 | 770 | \newcommand{\ShapymTwoZeroTwoFourZeroThree}{3.3} |
| 263 | 771 | \newcommand{\ShapymTwoZeroTwoThreeZeroThree}{3.1} |
| 772 | +\newcommand{\ShareDeclineshOne}{40} | |
| 773 | +\newcommand{\ShareDeclineshOneTwo}{10} | |
| 774 | +\newcommand{\ShareDeclineshSix}{23} | |
| 775 | +\newcommand{\ShareDeclineshThree}{31} | |
| 264 | 776 | \newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityarTwocellmomentum}{81} |
| 265 | 777 | \newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityarTwocellregimes}{81} |
| 266 | 778 | \newcommand{\SimCovmunicipalityarTwocellrw}{83} |
@@ -1026,6 +1538,54 @@ | ||
| 1026 | 1538 | \newcommand{\Simregiontftliterw}{0.81} |
| 1027 | 1539 | \newcommand{\Simregiontftlitesparse}{1.84} |
| 1028 | 1540 | \newcommand{\Simregiontftlitespillover}{2.28} |
| 1541 | +\newcommand{\YeararTwocellTwoZeroTwoFive}{0.96} | |
| 1542 | +\newcommand{\YeararTwocellTwoZeroTwoFour}{0.86} | |
| 1543 | +\newcommand{\YeararTwocellTwoZeroTwoSix}{0.88} | |
| 1544 | +\newcommand{\YeararTwocellTwoZeroTwoThree}{0.77} | |
| 1545 | +\newcommand{\YearbhpfTwoZeroTwoFive}{0.93} | |
| 1546 | +\newcommand{\YearbhpfTwoZeroTwoFour}{0.76} | |
| 1547 | +\newcommand{\YearbhpfTwoZeroTwoSix}{0.89} | |
| 1548 | +\newcommand{\YearbhpfTwoZeroTwoThree}{0.96} | |
| 1549 | +\newcommand{\YeardsgfnTwoZeroTwoFive}{0.95} | |
| 1550 | +\newcommand{\YeardsgfnTwoZeroTwoFour}{0.89} | |
| 1551 | +\newcommand{\YeardsgfnTwoZeroTwoSix}{0.75} | |
| 1552 | +\newcommand{\YeardsgfnTwoZeroTwoThree}{0.74} | |
| 1553 | +\newcommand{\YearlightgbmpanelTwoZeroTwoFive}{0.78} | |
| 1554 | +\newcommand{\YearlightgbmpanelTwoZeroTwoFour}{0.76} | |
| 1555 | +\newcommand{\YearlightgbmpanelTwoZeroTwoSix}{0.68} | |
| 1556 | +\newcommand{\YearlightgbmpanelTwoZeroTwoThree}{0.85} | |
| 1557 | +\newcommand{\YearmeangrowthTwoZeroTwoFive}{0.97} | |
| 1558 | +\newcommand{\YearmeangrowthTwoZeroTwoFour}{0.94} | |
| 1559 | +\newcommand{\YearmeangrowthTwoZeroTwoSix}{0.95} | |
| 1560 | +\newcommand{\YearmeangrowthTwoZeroTwoThree}{0.97} | |
| 1561 | +\newcommand{\YearmomentumTwoZeroTwoFive}{1.01} | |
| 1562 | +\newcommand{\YearmomentumTwoZeroTwoFour}{1.03} | |
| 1563 | +\newcommand{\YearmomentumTwoZeroTwoSix}{0.98} | |
| 1564 | +\newcommand{\YearmomentumTwoZeroTwoThree}{0.95} | |
| 1565 | +\newcommand{\YearnochangeTwoZeroTwoFive}{1.00} | |
| 1566 | +\newcommand{\YearnochangeTwoZeroTwoFour}{1.00} | |
| 1567 | +\newcommand{\YearnochangeTwoZeroTwoSix}{1.00} | |
| 1568 | +\newcommand{\YearnochangeTwoZeroTwoThree}{1.00} | |
| 1569 | +\newcommand{\YearqanssTwoZeroTwoFive}{0.86} | |
| 1570 | +\newcommand{\YearqanssTwoZeroTwoFour}{0.79} | |
| 1571 | +\newcommand{\YearqanssTwoZeroTwoSix}{0.85} | |
| 1572 | +\newcommand{\YearqanssTwoZeroTwoThree}{0.84} | |
| 1573 | +\newcommand{\YearqrefaTwoZeroTwoFive}{0.91} | |
| 1574 | +\newcommand{\YearqrefaTwoZeroTwoFour}{0.77} | |
| 1575 | +\newcommand{\YearqrefaTwoZeroTwoSix}{0.75} | |
| 1576 | +\newcommand{\YearqrefaTwoZeroTwoThree}{0.77} | |
| 1577 | +\newcommand{\YearrarefTwoZeroTwoFive}{0.91} | |
| 1578 | +\newcommand{\YearrarefTwoZeroTwoFour}{0.74} | |
| 1579 | +\newcommand{\YearrarefTwoZeroTwoSix}{0.99} | |
| 1580 | +\newcommand{\YearrarefTwoZeroTwoThree}{0.88} | |
| 1581 | +\newcommand{\YearridgepanelTwoZeroTwoFive}{0.92} | |
| 1582 | +\newcommand{\YearridgepanelTwoZeroTwoFour}{0.73} | |
| 1583 | +\newcommand{\YearridgepanelTwoZeroTwoSix}{0.90} | |
| 1584 | +\newcommand{\YearridgepanelTwoZeroTwoThree}{0.87} | |
| 1585 | +\newcommand{\YeartftliteTwoZeroTwoFive}{0.93} | |
| 1586 | +\newcommand{\YeartftliteTwoZeroTwoFour}{1.15} | |
| 1587 | +\newcommand{\YeartftliteTwoZeroTwoSix}{0.78} | |
| 1588 | +\newcommand{\YeartftliteTwoZeroTwoThree}{0.82} | |
| 1029 | 1589 | \newcommand{\aCRPSelasticnethFourSix}{16.15} |
| 1030 | 1590 | \newcommand{\aCRPSelasticnethOneThree}{16.01} |
| 1031 | 1591 | \newcommand{\aCRPSelasticnethSevenOneTwo}{16.29} |
modified
paper/tables/tab_ablation_b.tex
+3 −4
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp] |
| 2 | 2 | \centering\scriptsize |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Task B ablations at the municipality level: MAE (×100) and difference to the reference variant (per-origin mean, * = 95\% stationary-bootstrap interval excludes zero)}\label{tab:ablation_b} |
| 4 | −\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 4 | +\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{% | |
| 5 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrr} |
| 6 | 6 | \toprule |
| 7 | 7 | Variant & h=1: MAE & vs ref & h=3: MAE & vs ref & h=6: MAE & vs ref \\ |
@@ -23,7 +23,6 @@ Ridge without own momentum & 2.65 & +0.10* & 4.03 & +0.30* & 5.54 & +0.53 \\ | ||
| 23 | 23 | Ridge without parent (region/province) features & 2.57 & +0.02 & 3.78 & +0.05 & 4.89 & -0.11 \\ |
| 24 | 24 | Ridge without volume features & 2.57 & +0.03 & 3.76 & +0.03 & 5.11 & +0.10 \\ |
| 25 | 25 | \bottomrule |
| 26 | −\end{tabular} | |
| 27 | −\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item Reference variants: DSGFN, QANSS, QREFA and the full ridge panel. Positive differences mean the ablated variant is worse.\end{tablenotes} | |
| 28 | −\end{threeparttable} | |
| 26 | +\end{tabular}} | |
| 27 | +\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize Reference variants: DSGFN, QANSS, QREFA and the full ridge panel. Positive differences mean the ablated variant is worse.} | |
| 29 | 28 | \end{table} |
added
paper/tables/tab_combo_b.tex
+21 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp] | |
| 2 | +\centering\footnotesize | |
| 3 | +\caption{Task B — MASE of equal-weight combinations versus their components (same cells and origins)}\label{tab:combo_b} | |
| 4 | +\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lrrrr} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Forecast & h=1 & h=3 & h=6 & h=12 \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +LightGBM (panel) & 0.871 & 0.754 & 0.749 & 0.756 \\ | |
| 10 | +QANSS & 0.931 & 0.831 & 0.840 & 1.077 \\ | |
| 11 | +Ridge (panel) & 0.969 & 0.839 & 0.886 & 1.211 \\ | |
| 12 | +AR(2), cell & 0.983 & 0.897 & 0.807 & 0.630 \\ | |
| 13 | +QREFA & 0.956 & 0.816 & 0.833 & 1.012 \\ | |
| 14 | +Equal weights: LightGBM + QANSS & 0.870 & 0.760 & 0.735 & 0.845 \\ | |
| 15 | +Equal weights: LightGBM + AR(2) & 0.892 & 0.787 & 0.751 & 0.673 \\ | |
| 16 | +Equal weights: LightGBM + QANSS + ridge + AR(2) & 0.891 & 0.765 & 0.736 & 0.777 \\ | |
| 17 | +Equal weights: four models + no change & 0.898 & 0.779 & 0.729 & 0.672 \\ | |
| 18 | +\bottomrule | |
| 19 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 20 | +\end{threeparttable} | |
| 21 | +\end{table} | |
added
paper/tables/tab_cost.tex
+42 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp] | |
| 2 | +\centering\scriptsize | |
| 3 | +\caption{Computational cost (wall-clock on a 32-core Mac Studio M3 Ultra; tree models 10 threads, neural models 8 threads)}\label{tab:cost} | |
| 4 | +\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrr} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Task & Model & Seconds per fit & Total seconds & Fits & Mean training rows \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +A & Ridge & 0.1 & 1 & 12 & 314{,}363 \\ | |
| 10 | +A & Hedonic OLS & 0.3 & 4 & 12 & 314{,}363 \\ | |
| 11 | +A & Elastic net & 3.4 & 40 & 12 & 314{,}363 \\ | |
| 12 | +A & Quantile MLP & 7.7 & 93 & 12 & 314{,}363 \\ | |
| 13 | +A & HSHN (full pooling) & 9.0 & 108 & 12 & 314{,}363 \\ | |
| 14 | +A & HSHN (no pooling) & 9.3 & 111 & 12 & 314{,}363 \\ | |
| 15 | +A & HSHN (partial pooling) & 9.5 & 114 & 12 & 314{,}363 \\ | |
| 16 | +A & XGBoost & 9.9 & 119 & 12 & 314{,}363 \\ | |
| 17 | +A & Random forest & 29.9 & 359 & 12 & 314{,}363 \\ | |
| 18 | +A & SVR (subsample) & 63.6 & 764 & 12 & 314{,}363 \\ | |
| 19 | +A & LightGBM & 155.0 & 1860 & 12 & 314{,}363 \\ | |
| 20 | +B & No change & 0.0 & 0 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 21 | +B & AR(2), cell & 0.0 & 0 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 22 | +B & Seasonal naive & 0.0 & 0 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 23 | +B & Mean growth & 0.0 & 0 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 24 | +B & Ridge (panel) & 0.0 & 0 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 25 | +B & Random walk with drift & 0.0 & 0 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 26 | +B & Momentum & 0.0 & 0 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 27 | +B & BHPF & 0.2 & 7 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 28 | +B & QANSS & 0.2 & 8 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 29 | +B & MLP (panel) & 1.0 & 36 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 30 | +B & Local linear trend & 1.6 & 58 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 31 | +B & RAREF & 3.9 & 140 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 32 | +B & DSGFN & 4.9 & 176 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 33 | +B & TFT-lite & 5.0 & 181 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 34 | +B & LightGBM (panel) & 5.8 & 210 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 35 | +B & GRU & 7.1 & 254 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 36 | +B & LSTM & 8.9 & 322 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 37 | +B & QREFA & 10.4 & 373 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 38 | +B & TCN & 186.0 & 6696 & 36 & 5{,}785 \\ | |
| 39 | +\bottomrule | |
| 40 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 41 | +\end{threeparttable} | |
| 42 | +\end{table} | |
modified
paper/tables/tab_coverage.tex
+0 −1
@@ -25,6 +25,5 @@ Region & Houses & Condominiums & Plexes \\ | ||
| 25 | 25 | 17 & 15{,}980 & 608 & 2{,}356 \\ |
| 26 | 26 | \bottomrule |
| 27 | 27 | \end{tabular} |
| 28 | − | |
| 29 | 28 | \end{threeparttable} |
| 30 | 29 | \end{table} |
added
paper/tables/tab_decline_b.tex
+24 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp] | |
| 2 | +\centering\scriptsize | |
| 3 | +\caption{Task C — probability of an index decline over the horizon: Brier score and Brier skill score relative to the climatological frequency of declines}\label{tab:decline_b} | |
| 4 | +\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{% | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & h=1: Brier & h=1: skill & h=3: Brier & h=3: skill & h=6: Brier & h=6: skill & h=12: Brier & h=12: skill \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +No change & 0.244 & -0.01 & 0.217 & -0.02 & 0.179 & -0.01 & 0.090 & -0.01 \\ | |
| 10 | +Mean growth & 0.249 & -0.04 & 0.226 & -0.06 & 0.187 & -0.06 & 0.099 & -0.12 \\ | |
| 11 | +Momentum & 0.240 & +0.00 & 0.205 & +0.03 & 0.171 & +0.03 & 0.089 & -0.01 \\ | |
| 12 | +AR(2), cell & 0.244 & -0.01 & 0.208 & +0.02 & 0.176 & +0.00 & 0.089 & -0.01 \\ | |
| 13 | +Ridge (panel) & 0.231 & +0.04 & 0.188 & +0.11 & 0.186 & -0.05 & 0.095 & -0.07 \\ | |
| 14 | +LightGBM (panel) & 0.219 & +0.09 & 0.181 & +0.15 & 0.174 & +0.02 & 0.090 & -0.02 \\ | |
| 15 | +TFT-lite & 0.275 & -0.14 & 0.223 & -0.05 & 0.186 & -0.05 & 0.095 & -0.07 \\ | |
| 16 | +BHPF & 0.226 & +0.06 & 0.184 & +0.13 & 0.179 & -0.01 & 0.097 & -0.10 \\ | |
| 17 | +RAREF & 0.226 & +0.06 & 0.194 & +0.09 & 0.185 & -0.05 & 0.094 & -0.07 \\ | |
| 18 | +QANSS & 0.226 & +0.06 & 0.197 & +0.07 & 0.181 & -0.03 & 0.180 & -1.04 \\ | |
| 19 | +DSGFN & 0.252 & -0.05 & 0.182 & +0.14 & 0.170 & +0.04 & 0.096 & -0.08 \\ | |
| 20 | +QREFA & 0.234 & +0.03 & 0.176 & +0.17 & 0.166 & +0.06 & 0.097 & -0.09 \\ | |
| 21 | +\bottomrule | |
| 22 | +\end{tabular}} | |
| 23 | +\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize Probabilities are read off the five-quantile forecasts by linear interpolation of the quantile function. Skill = $1 - $ Brier / Brier of the constant climatological probability.} | |
| 24 | +\end{table} | |
added
paper/tables/tab_direction_b.tex
+23 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp] | |
| 2 | +\centering\scriptsize | |
| 3 | +\caption{Task B — directional accuracy (\% of forecasts with the sign of the realised change, changes above 0.5 log points) overall and at turning points (origins where the realised change reverses sign)}\label{tab:direction_b} | |
| 4 | +\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{% | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & h=1: all & h=1: turning pts & h=3: all & h=3: turning pts & h=6: all & h=6: turning pts & h=12: all & h=12: turning pts \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Mean growth & 60 & 51 & 70 & 50 & 78 & 51 & 90 & 47 \\ | |
| 10 | +Momentum & 53 & 72 & 50 & 69 & 45 & 68 & 46 & 47 \\ | |
| 11 | +AR(2), cell & 59 & 65 & 71 & 58 & 78 & 60 & 91 & 48 \\ | |
| 12 | +Ridge (panel) & 65 & 68 & 73 & 58 & 76 & 59 & 91 & 48 \\ | |
| 13 | +LightGBM (panel) & 70 & 77 & 75 & 65 & 78 & 59 & 91 & 47 \\ | |
| 14 | +TFT-lite & 60 & 66 & 69 & 65 & 77 & 60 & 91 & 47 \\ | |
| 15 | +BHPF & 65 & 67 & 73 & 57 & 77 & 59 & 91 & 49 \\ | |
| 16 | +RAREF & 66 & 68 & 73 & 58 & 76 & 58 & 91 & 48 \\ | |
| 17 | +QANSS & 67 & 75 & 73 & 61 & 76 & 64 & 75 & 50 \\ | |
| 18 | +DSGFN & 63 & 66 & 77 & 65 & 79 & 60 & 91 & 47 \\ | |
| 19 | +QREFA & 65 & 70 & 76 & 66 & 78 & 62 & 91 & 48 \\ | |
| 20 | +\bottomrule | |
| 21 | +\end{tabular}} | |
| 22 | +\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize The no-change forecast has no sign; momentum has the sign of the last three-month change.} | |
| 23 | +\end{table} | |
added
paper/tables/tab_dollar_a.tex
+21 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp] | |
| 2 | +\centering\footnotesize | |
| 3 | +\caption{Task A, horizons 1--3 months — economic magnitude of forecast errors}\label{tab:dollar_a} | |
| 4 | +\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lrrrr} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Class & Model & MAE (log $\times$100) & Median price (\$) & Median absolute error (\$) \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +condo & LightGBM & 13.3 & 364{,}000 & 32{,}005 \\ | |
| 10 | +condo & Hedonic OLS & 15.6 & 364{,}000 & 37{,}900 \\ | |
| 11 | +condo & Naive: municipal median & 34.9 & 364{,}000 & 127{,}000 \\ | |
| 12 | +house & LightGBM & 23.0 & 420{,}000 & 61{,}102 \\ | |
| 13 | +house & Hedonic OLS & 24.9 & 420{,}000 & 67{,}889 \\ | |
| 14 | +house & Naive: municipal median & 34.5 & 420{,}000 & 92{,}750 \\ | |
| 15 | +plex & LightGBM & 24.0 & 510{,}000 & 80{,}115 \\ | |
| 16 | +plex & Hedonic OLS & 26.6 & 510{,}000 & 88{,}707 \\ | |
| 17 | +plex & Naive: municipal median & 37.6 & 510{,}000 & 135{,}000 \\ | |
| 18 | +\bottomrule | |
| 19 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 20 | +\end{threeparttable} | |
| 21 | +\end{table} | |
added
paper/tables/tab_gw_b.tex
+30 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp] | |
| 2 | +\centering\scriptsize | |
| 3 | +\caption{Task B — unadjusted Diebold--Mariano $p$-values and Giacomini--White conditional-predictive-ability $p$-values against the no-change forecast}\label{tab:gw_b} | |
| 4 | +\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{% | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & h=1: DM $p$ & h=1: GW $p$ & h=3: DM $p$ & h=3: GW $p$ & h=6: DM $p$ & h=6: GW $p$ & h=12: DM $p$ & h=12: GW $p$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Mean growth & 0.800 & 0.972 & 0.560 & 0.001 & 0.473 & 0.003 & 0.798 & 0.000 \\ | |
| 10 | +Momentum & 0.324 & 0.075 & 0.344 & 0.063 & 0.574 & 0.069 & 0.896 & 0.376 \\ | |
| 11 | +Random walk with drift & 0.022 & 0.044 & 0.261 & 0.000 & 0.375 & 0.000 & 0.773 & 0.001 \\ | |
| 12 | +Seasonal naive & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.270 & 0.001 & 0.327 & 0.000 & 0.773 & 0.001 \\ | |
| 13 | +AR(2), cell & 0.278 & 0.496 & 0.072 & 0.099 & 0.109 & 0.035 & 0.712 & 0.000 \\ | |
| 14 | +Local linear trend & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 \\ | |
| 15 | +Ridge (panel) & 0.067 & 0.103 & 0.052 & 0.098 & 0.367 & 0.004 & 0.898 & 0.010 \\ | |
| 16 | +LightGBM (panel) & 0.001 & 0.000 & 0.007 & 0.005 & 0.086 & 0.067 & 0.855 & 0.011 \\ | |
| 17 | +MLP (panel) & 0.471 & 0.698 & 0.229 & 0.327 & 0.610 & 0.003 & 0.595 & 0.000 \\ | |
| 18 | +LSTM & 0.069 & 0.150 & 0.314 & 0.184 & 0.254 & 0.002 & 0.945 & 0.107 \\ | |
| 19 | +GRU & 0.124 & 0.243 & 0.106 & 0.190 & 0.229 & 0.007 & 0.894 & 0.007 \\ | |
| 20 | +TCN & 0.501 & 0.649 & 0.208 & 0.220 & 0.229 & 0.045 & 0.880 & 0.046 \\ | |
| 21 | +TFT-lite & 0.223 & 0.304 & 0.817 & 0.261 & 0.876 & 0.011 & 0.966 & 0.000 \\ | |
| 22 | +BHPF & 0.082 & 0.118 & 0.064 & 0.120 & 0.469 & 0.001 & 0.918 & 0.000 \\ | |
| 23 | +RAREF & 0.055 & 0.075 & 0.092 & 0.171 & 0.364 & 0.001 & 0.915 & 0.016 \\ | |
| 24 | +QANSS & 0.030 & 0.027 & 0.037 & 0.066 & 0.217 & 0.001 & 0.792 & 0.004 \\ | |
| 25 | +DSGFN & 0.605 & 0.320 & 0.223 & 0.154 & 0.372 & 0.015 & 0.919 & 0.000 \\ | |
| 26 | +QREFA & 0.092 & 0.038 & 0.050 & 0.096 & 0.215 & 0.018 & 0.959 & 0.000 \\ | |
| 27 | +\bottomrule | |
| 28 | +\end{tabular}} | |
| 29 | +\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize The Giacomini--White test regresses the loss differential on a constant and its own lag; a rejection means the relative accuracy of the two forecasts is predictable from the past.} | |
| 30 | +\end{table} | |
modified
paper/tables/tab_het_a_mun_size.tex
+0 −1
@@ -20,6 +20,5 @@ HSHN (full pooling) & 20.96 & 24.22 & 32.91 \\ | ||
| 20 | 20 | HSHN (partial pooling) & 20.63 & 23.79 & 32.92 \\ |
| 21 | 21 | \bottomrule |
| 22 | 22 | \end{tabular} |
| 23 | − | |
| 24 | 23 | \end{threeparttable} |
| 25 | 24 | \end{table} |
modified
paper/tables/tab_het_a_property_class.tex
+0 −1
@@ -20,6 +20,5 @@ HSHN (full pooling) & 17.61 & 25.38 & 26.50 \\ | ||
| 20 | 20 | HSHN (partial pooling) & 17.33 & 25.07 & 26.19 \\ |
| 21 | 21 | \bottomrule |
| 22 | 22 | \end{tabular} |
| 23 | − | |
| 24 | 23 | \end{threeparttable} |
| 25 | 24 | \end{table} |
modified
paper/tables/tab_het_a_segment.tex
+0 −1
@@ -20,6 +20,5 @@ HSHN (full pooling) & 18.27 & 41.14 & 23.58 \\ | ||
| 20 | 20 | HSHN (partial pooling) & 18.05 & 41.11 & 23.03 \\ |
| 21 | 21 | \bottomrule |
| 22 | 22 | \end{tabular} |
| 23 | − | |
| 24 | 23 | \end{threeparttable} |
| 25 | 24 | \end{table} |
modified
paper/tables/tab_het_b_class.tex
+0 −1
@@ -27,6 +27,5 @@ DSGFN & 2.61 & 4.30 & 4.13 \\ | ||
| 27 | 27 | QREFA & 2.58 & 3.86 & 3.81 \\ |
| 28 | 28 | \bottomrule |
| 29 | 29 | \end{tabular} |
| 30 | − | |
| 31 | 30 | \end{threeparttable} |
| 32 | 31 | \end{table} |
modified
paper/tables/tab_het_b_level.tex
+0 −1
@@ -27,6 +27,5 @@ DSGFN & 3.93 & 1.90 & 2.84 \\ | ||
| 27 | 27 | QREFA & 3.67 & 1.66 & 2.57 \\ |
| 28 | 28 | \bottomrule |
| 29 | 29 | \end{tabular} |
| 30 | − | |
| 31 | 30 | \end{threeparttable} |
| 32 | 31 | \end{table} |
modified
paper/tables/tab_het_b_size_level.tex
+0 −1
@@ -27,6 +27,5 @@ DSGFN & 3.44 & 4.02 & 1.90 & 2.84 \\ | ||
| 27 | 27 | QREFA & 3.14 & 3.76 & 1.66 & 2.57 \\ |
| 28 | 28 | \bottomrule |
| 29 | 29 | \end{tabular} |
| 30 | − | |
| 31 | 30 | \end{threeparttable} |
| 32 | 31 | \end{table} |
modified
paper/tables/tab_hyper.tex
+0 −1
@@ -22,6 +22,5 @@ LightGBM (B) & 300 trees, lr 0.03, 15 leaves, min child 40; quantile models \\ | ||
| 22 | 22 | Ridge (B) & $\alpha$=3 on standardised features \\ |
| 23 | 23 | \bottomrule |
| 24 | 24 | \end{tabular} |
| 25 | − | |
| 26 | 25 | \end{threeparttable} |
| 27 | 26 | \end{table} |
modified
paper/tables/tab_leakage.tex
+0 −1
@@ -18,6 +18,5 @@ Index revisions & predictors = vintage published for the origin; target = final | ||
| 18 | 18 | Partial last month & October 2026 excluded; last target September 2026 \\ |
| 19 | 19 | \bottomrule |
| 20 | 20 | \end{tabular} |
| 21 | − | |
| 22 | 21 | \end{threeparttable} |
| 23 | 22 | \end{table} |
added
paper/tables/tab_mun_dist_b.tex
+16 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp] | |
| 2 | +\centering\footnotesize | |
| 3 | +\caption{Task B, horizon 3 — distribution of the MASE across the 192 municipal cells (64 municipalities × 3 classes)}\label{tab:mun_dist_b} | |
| 4 | +\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrr} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & Median MASE & P10 & P90 & \% of cells beating no change & Cells \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +LightGBM (panel) & 0.74 & 0.62 & 0.97 & 91 & 192 \\ | |
| 10 | +Ridge (panel) & 0.80 & 0.63 & 1.44 & 72 & 192 \\ | |
| 11 | +QANSS & 0.82 & 0.68 & 1.08 & 83 & 192 \\ | |
| 12 | +AR(2), cell & 0.91 & 0.76 & 1.08 & 80 & 192 \\ | |
| 13 | +\bottomrule | |
| 14 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 15 | +\end{threeparttable} | |
| 16 | +\end{table} | |
modified
paper/tables/tab_prob_a.tex
+2 −4
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp] |
| 2 | 2 | \centering\scriptsize |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Task A — Probabilistic accuracy (CRPS ×100, 90\% interval coverage \% and width ×100) of future sale-price forecasts by horizon band (months after the origin)}\label{tab:prob_a} |
| 4 | −\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 4 | +\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{% | |
| 5 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr} |
| 6 | 6 | \toprule |
| 7 | 7 | Model & 1-3: CRPS & 1-3: cov90 & 1-3: width90 & 4-6: CRPS & 4-6: cov90 & 4-6: width90 & 7-12: CRPS & 7-12: cov90 & 7-12: width90 \\ |
@@ -19,7 +19,5 @@ HSHN (no pooling) & 14.92 & 89 & 107.8 & 15.68 & 86 & 108.3 & 16.34 & 82 & 106.5 | ||
| 19 | 19 | HSHN (full pooling) & 15.04 & 88 & 108.0 & 15.87 & 85 & 108.4 & 16.56 & 82 & 106.6 \\ |
| 20 | 20 | HSHN (partial pooling) & 14.92 & 89 & 107.9 & 15.68 & 86 & 108.3 & 16.35 & 82 & 106.6 \\ |
| 21 | 21 | \bottomrule |
| 22 | −\end{tabular} | |
| 23 | − | |
| 24 | −\end{threeparttable} | |
| 22 | +\end{tabular}} | |
| 25 | 23 | \end{table} |
modified
paper/tables/tab_prob_b.tex
+2 −4
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp] |
| 2 | 2 | \centering\scriptsize |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Task B — Probabilistic accuracy (CRPS ×100, 90\% interval coverage \% and width ×100) of quality-adjusted index-change forecasts by horizon (months)}\label{tab:prob_b} |
| 4 | −\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 4 | +\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{% | |
| 5 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrrrrr} |
| 6 | 6 | \toprule |
| 7 | 7 | Model & 1: CRPS & 1: cov90 & 1: width90 & 3: CRPS & 3: cov90 & 3: width90 & 6: CRPS & 6: cov90 & 6: width90 & 12: CRPS & 12: cov90 & 12: width90 \\ |
@@ -26,7 +26,5 @@ QANSS & 1.70 & 98 & 17.2 & 2.35 & 97 & 20.7 & 2.93 & 95 & 23.3 & 5.06 & 93 & 35. | ||
| 26 | 26 | DSGFN & 1.63 & 78 & 7.6 & 2.48 & 73 & 10.2 & 3.14 & 72 & 12.9 & 6.09 & 45 & 12.4 \\ |
| 27 | 27 | QREFA & 1.49 & 85 & 8.9 & 2.19 & 85 & 12.2 & 2.85 & 82 & 13.7 & 5.32 & 51 & 13.2 \\ |
| 28 | 28 | \bottomrule |
| 29 | −\end{tabular} | |
| 30 | − | |
| 31 | −\end{threeparttable} | |
| 29 | +\end{tabular}} | |
| 32 | 30 | \end{table} |
added
paper/tables/tab_regime_b.tex
+24 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp] | |
| 2 | +\centering\scriptsize | |
| 3 | +\caption{Task B, horizon 3 — MAE (×100) and MASE (in parentheses) by ex-post provincial regime of the target window (rising: provincial house index change above +2 log points over the horizon; falling: below $-2$; flat otherwise)}\label{tab:regime_b} | |
| 4 | +\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lrrr} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & rising (17 origins) & flat (13 origins) & falling (1 origins) \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +No change & 5.00 (1.00) & 3.10 (1.00) & 4.55 (1.00) \\ | |
| 10 | +Mean growth & 4.01 (0.80) & 3.80 (1.23) & 6.38 (1.40) \\ | |
| 11 | +Momentum & 5.20 (1.04) & 3.00 (0.97) & 3.87 (0.85) \\ | |
| 12 | +AR(2), cell & 3.82 (0.76) & 3.54 (1.14) & 5.66 (1.25) \\ | |
| 13 | +Ridge (panel) & 3.49 (0.70) & 3.44 (1.11) & 4.89 (1.08) \\ | |
| 14 | +LightGBM (panel) & 3.16 (0.63) & 3.11 (1.00) & 3.81 (0.84) \\ | |
| 15 | +TFT-lite & 4.68 (0.94) & 3.46 (1.12) & 3.50 (0.77) \\ | |
| 16 | +BHPF & 3.52 (0.70) & 3.53 (1.14) & 4.98 (1.10) \\ | |
| 17 | +RAREF & 3.52 (0.70) & 3.55 (1.14) & 5.03 (1.11) \\ | |
| 18 | +QANSS & 3.56 (0.71) & 3.25 (1.05) & 5.18 (1.14) \\ | |
| 19 | +DSGFN & 3.49 (0.70) & 4.00 (1.29) & 3.01 (0.66) \\ | |
| 20 | +QREFA & 3.36 (0.67) & 3.51 (1.13) & 3.39 (0.75) \\ | |
| 21 | +\bottomrule | |
| 22 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 23 | +\end{threeparttable} | |
| 24 | +\end{table} | |
modified
paper/tables/tab_robust_b.tex
+3 −4
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp] |
| 2 | 2 | \centering\scriptsize |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Task B robustness at the municipality level, horizon 3: MAE (×100) under alternative designs}\label{tab:robust_b} |
| 4 | −\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 4 | +\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{% | |
| 5 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrr} |
| 6 | 6 | \toprule |
| 7 | 7 | Model & Expanding (baseline) & Rolling 24 origins & Cells with $n \ge 10$ & Winsorised target & Seed 1 & Seed 2 & Bandwidth 30 / 120 km \\ |
@@ -16,7 +16,6 @@ DSGFN & 3.76 & 3.90 & 3.83 & 3.76 & 4.05 & 3.66 & — \\ | ||
| 16 | 16 | DSGFN, bandwidth 30 km & — & — & — & — & — & — & 4.00 \\ |
| 17 | 17 | DSGFN, bandwidth 120 km & — & — & — & — & — & — & 3.98 \\ |
| 18 | 18 | \bottomrule |
| 19 | −\end{tabular} | |
| 20 | −\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item Rolling: models estimated on the 24 most recent origins only. Seeds: neural models re-estimated with different random seeds (the baseline is seed 0). Winsorised: targets clipped at the 1st and 99th percentiles in training and test.\end{tablenotes} | |
| 21 | −\end{threeparttable} | |
| 19 | +\end{tabular}} | |
| 20 | +\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize Rolling: models estimated on the 24 most recent origins only. Seeds: neural models re-estimated with different random seeds (the baseline is seed 0). Winsorised: targets clipped at the 1st and 99th percentiles in training and test.} | |
| 22 | 21 | \end{table} |
modified
paper/tables/tab_scores_b.tex
+3 −4
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp] |
| 2 | 2 | \centering\scriptsize |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Task B — Point accuracy of quality-adjusted index-change forecasts by horizon (months)}\label{tab:scores_b} |
| 4 | −\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 4 | +\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{% | |
| 5 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr} |
| 6 | 6 | \toprule |
| 7 | 7 | Model & 1: MAE & 1: MASE & 3: MAE & 3: MASE & 6: MAE & 6: MASE & 12: MAE & 12: MASE \\ |
@@ -26,7 +26,6 @@ QANSS & 2.30**$^{\dagger}$ & 0.93 & 3.48**$^{\dagger}$ & 0.83 & 4.51$^{\dagger}$ | ||
| 26 | 26 | DSGFN & 2.53$^{\dagger}$ & 1.02 & 3.69$^{\dagger}$ & 0.88 & 4.79$^{\dagger}$ & 0.89 & 8.33 & 1.11 \\ |
| 27 | 27 | QREFA & 2.36*$^{\dagger}$ & 0.96 & 3.42**$^{\dagger}$ & 0.82 & 4.48$^{\dagger}$ & 0.83 & 7.61 & 1.01 \\ |
| 28 | 28 | \bottomrule |
| 29 | −\end{tabular} | |
| 30 | −\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item Target: final SHARP-HPI log change. MAE in log points ×100; MASE relative to the naive reference. Stars: Diebold--Mariano test of equal squared-error loss against the reference on per-origin mean losses (* 10\%, ** 5\%, *** 1\%); $\dagger$ = in the 90\% model confidence set of the horizon.\end{tablenotes} | |
| 31 | −\end{threeparttable} | |
| 29 | +\end{tabular}} | |
| 30 | +\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize Target: final SHARP-HPI log change. MAE in log points ×100; MASE relative to the naive reference. Stars: Diebold--Mariano test of equal squared-error loss against the reference on per-origin mean losses (* 10\%, ** 5\%, *** 1\%); $\dagger$ = in the 90\% model confidence set of the horizon.} | |
| 32 | 31 | \end{table} |
modified
paper/tables/tab_selection.tex
+3 −4
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp] |
| 2 | 2 | \centering\footnotesize |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Transaction selection: medians of sold dwellings (2021--2026) versus the assessment-roll stock}\label{tab:selection} |
| 4 | −\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 4 | +\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{% | |
| 5 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr} |
| 6 | 6 | \toprule |
| 7 | 7 | Class & Floor area sold & Floor area stock & Age sold & Age stock & Lot sold & Lot stock & Sales & Stock units \\ |
@@ -10,7 +10,6 @@ house & 114 & 116 & 41 & 45 & 653 & 699 & 422{,}658 & 1{,}899{,}469 \\ | ||
| 10 | 10 | condo & 90 & 89 & 17 & 20 & 104 & 87 & 122{,}989 & 344{,}399 \\ |
| 11 | 11 | plex & 194 & 204 & 65 & 66 & 507 & 488 & 86{,}359 & 336{,}283 \\ |
| 12 | 12 | \bottomrule |
| 13 | −\end{tabular} | |
| 14 | −\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item Stock = residential use code 1000 in the 2026 roll, classified with the WP22 rules; age of the stock as of 2026.\end{tablenotes} | |
| 15 | −\end{threeparttable} | |
| 13 | +\end{tabular}} | |
| 14 | +\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize Stock = residential use code 1000 in the 2026 roll, classified with the WP22 rules; age of the stock as of 2026.} | |
| 16 | 15 | \end{table} |
added
paper/tables/tab_selection_rates.tex
+18 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp] | |
| 2 | +\centering\footnotesize | |
| 3 | +\caption{Transaction selection — annual sale rate of the roll stock (\% of units sold per year, 2021--2026) by quintile of floor area and of age}\label{tab:selection_rates} | |
| 4 | +\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrr} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Class and dimension & Q1 & Q2 & Q3 & Q4 & Q5 \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +house, by floor area quintile (1 = smallest / newest) & 4.3 & 3.9 & 3.9 & 3.8 & 3.5 \\ | |
| 10 | +house, by age quintile (1 = smallest / newest) & 4.8 & 3.7 & 3.3 & 3.9 & 3.8 \\ | |
| 11 | +condo, by floor area quintile (1 = smallest / newest) & 5.8 & 6.4 & 6.7 & 6.8 & 5.5 \\ | |
| 12 | +condo, by age quintile (1 = smallest / newest) & 5.6 & 7.2 & 6.3 & 6.1 & 6.1 \\ | |
| 13 | +plex, by floor area quintile (1 = smallest / newest) & 5.6 & 4.8 & 4.2 & 4.0 & 3.8 \\ | |
| 14 | +plex, by age quintile (1 = smallest / newest) & 4.6 & 4.0 & 4.1 & 4.7 & 4.9 \\ | |
| 15 | +\bottomrule | |
| 16 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 17 | +\end{threeparttable} | |
| 18 | +\end{table} | |
modified
paper/tables/tab_shap.tex
+3 −4
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ | ||
| 1 | 1 | \begin{table}[htbp] |
| 2 | 2 | \centering\footnotesize |
| 3 | 3 | \caption{Task A — mean absolute SHAP value (×100, log-price units) of the LightGBM model at three origins, 4,000 test sales each}\label{tab:shap} |
| 4 | −\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 4 | +\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{% | |
| 5 | 5 | \begin{tabular}{lrrrr} |
| 6 | 6 | \toprule |
| 7 | 7 | Feature & 2023-03 & 2024-03 & 2025-03 & Mean \\ |
@@ -22,7 +22,6 @@ subtype\_c=detached & 1.9 & 2.1 & 2.1 & 2.0 \\ | ||
| 22 | 22 | log floor area squared & 1.4 & 1.4 & 1.5 & 1.4 \\ |
| 23 | 23 | municipality: sales, 3 m & 1.6 & 1.4 & 1.1 & 1.4 \\ |
| 24 | 24 | \bottomrule |
| 25 | −\end{tabular} | |
| 26 | −\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item Importance is predictive, not causal. Origin-month importance declines as the training history lengthens.\end{tablenotes} | |
| 27 | −\end{threeparttable} | |
| 25 | +\end{tabular}} | |
| 26 | +\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize Importance is predictive, not causal. Origin-month importance declines as the training history lengthens.} | |
| 28 | 27 | \end{table} |
added
paper/tables/tab_tests_b.tex
+30 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp] | |
| 2 | +\centering\scriptsize | |
| 3 | +\caption{Task B — Diebold--Mariano statistics against the no-change forecast (negative = better than no change) and Holm-adjusted $p$-values across the 18 models of each horizon}\label{tab:tests_b} | |
| 4 | +\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{% | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & h=1: DM & h=1: Holm $p$ & h=3: DM & h=3: Holm $p$ & h=6: DM & h=6: Holm $p$ & h=12: DM & h=12: Holm $p$ \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +Mean growth & +0.26 & 1.00 & -0.59 & 1.00 & -0.73 & 1.00 & -0.26 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 10 | +Momentum & -1.00 & 1.00 & -0.96 & 1.00 & +0.57 & 1.00 & +0.13 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 11 | +Random walk with drift & +2.40 & 0.33 & +1.14 & 1.00 & +0.90 & 1.00 & +0.29 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 12 | +Seasonal naive & +5.00 & 0.00 & +1.12 & 1.00 & +1.00 & 1.00 & +0.29 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 13 | +AR(2), cell & -1.10 & 1.00 & -1.86 & 0.87 & -1.67 & 1.00 & -0.38 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 14 | +Local linear trend & +7.19 & 0.00 & +8.08 & 0.00 & +10.47 & 0.00 & +4.88 & 0.01 \\ | |
| 15 | +Ridge (panel) & -1.90 & 0.80 & -2.02 & 0.75 & -0.92 & 1.00 & +0.13 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 16 | +LightGBM (panel) & -3.85 & 0.01 & -2.91 & 0.11 & -1.79 & 1.00 & -0.19 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 17 | +MLP (panel) & +0.73 & 1.00 & -1.23 & 1.00 & -0.52 & 1.00 & +0.55 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 18 | +LSTM & +1.88 & 0.80 & -1.02 & 1.00 & -1.17 & 1.00 & +0.07 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 19 | +GRU & +1.58 & 0.99 & -1.67 & 1.00 & -1.23 & 1.00 & +0.14 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 20 | +TCN & +0.68 & 1.00 & -1.29 & 1.00 & -1.23 & 1.00 & +0.15 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 21 | +TFT-lite & +1.24 & 1.00 & +0.23 & 1.00 & -0.16 & 1.00 & -0.04 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 22 | +BHPF & -1.79 & 0.82 & -1.92 & 0.83 & -0.74 & 1.00 & +0.11 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 23 | +RAREF & -1.99 & 0.72 & -1.74 & 1.00 & -0.93 & 1.00 & +0.11 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 24 | +QANSS & -2.27 & 0.42 & -2.18 & 0.59 & -1.27 & 1.00 & +0.27 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 25 | +DSGFN & -0.52 & 1.00 & -1.24 & 1.00 & -0.91 & 1.00 & +0.10 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 26 | +QREFA & -1.74 & 0.82 & -2.04 & 0.75 & -1.27 & 1.00 & +0.05 & 1.00 \\ | |
| 27 | +\bottomrule | |
| 28 | +\end{tabular}} | |
| 29 | +\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize HAC variance with $h-1$ Bartlett lags and the Harvey--Leybourne--Newbold correction; $t_{n-1}$ reference distribution; Holm step-down over the 18 two-sided $p$-values of each horizon.} | |
| 30 | +\end{table} | |
modified
paper/tables/tab_variables.tex
+0 −1
@@ -18,6 +18,5 @@ Real-time SHARP-HPI vintage (13-month history) & WP22 index\_vintages (smoothed | ||
| 18 | 18 | Bedrooms, bathrooms, parking, basement, condition, renovations, quality, listing, images & — & not available & — \\ |
| 19 | 19 | \bottomrule |
| 20 | 20 | \end{tabular} |
| 21 | − | |
| 22 | 21 | \end{threeparttable} |
| 23 | 22 | \end{table} |
added
paper/tables/tab_year_b.tex
+25 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@ | ||
| 1 | +\begin{table}[htbp] | |
| 2 | +\centering\scriptsize | |
| 3 | +\caption{Task B, horizon 3 — MAE (×100) and MASE (in parentheses) by year of the forecast origin}\label{tab:year_b} | |
| 4 | +\begin{threeparttable} | |
| 5 | +\begin{tabular}{lrrrr} | |
| 6 | +\toprule | |
| 7 | +Model & Origins in 2023 & Origins in 2024 & Origins in 2025 & Origins in 2026 \\ | |
| 8 | +\midrule | |
| 9 | +No change & 3.75 (1.00) & 4.40 (1.00) & 3.94 (1.00) & 4.35 (1.00) \\ | |
| 10 | +Mean growth & 3.63 (0.97) & 4.15 (0.94) & 3.81 (0.97) & 4.13 (0.95) \\ | |
| 11 | +Momentum & 3.57 (0.95) & 4.53 (1.03) & 3.99 (1.01) & 4.26 (0.98) \\ | |
| 12 | +AR(2), cell & 2.87 (0.77) & 3.78 (0.86) & 3.78 (0.96) & 3.82 (0.88) \\ | |
| 13 | +Ridge (panel) & 3.28 (0.87) & 3.23 (0.73) & 3.63 (0.92) & 3.89 (0.90) \\ | |
| 14 | +LightGBM (panel) & 3.17 (0.85) & 3.35 (0.76) & 3.07 (0.78) & 2.95 (0.68) \\ | |
| 15 | +TFT-lite & 3.07 (0.82) & 5.06 (1.15) & 3.66 (0.93) & 3.41 (0.78) \\ | |
| 16 | +BHPF & 3.59 (0.96) & 3.32 (0.76) & 3.66 (0.93) & 3.89 (0.89) \\ | |
| 17 | +RAREF & 3.29 (0.88) & 3.25 (0.74) & 3.58 (0.91) & 4.29 (0.99) \\ | |
| 18 | +QANSS & 3.16 (0.84) & 3.48 (0.79) & 3.40 (0.86) & 3.69 (0.85) \\ | |
| 19 | +DSGFN & 2.77 (0.74) & 3.91 (0.89) & 3.76 (0.95) & 3.25 (0.75) \\ | |
| 20 | +QREFA & 2.88 (0.77) & 3.39 (0.77) & 3.57 (0.91) & 3.27 (0.75) \\ | |
| 21 | +\bottomrule | |
| 22 | +\end{tabular} | |
| 23 | +\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item 2023 covers origins from October to December only; 2026 covers January to June.\end{tablenotes} | |
| 24 | +\end{threeparttable} | |
| 25 | +\end{table} | |
added
results/extra/combinations_b.csv
+37 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@ | ||
| 1 | +h,combination,mae,mase,n | |
| 2 | +1,eq_lgbm_qanss,0.02150297790776443,0.8700877805868423,8085 | |
| 3 | +1,lightgbm_panel,0.02153670072594235,0.8714523270301034,8085 | |
| 4 | +1,eq_lgbm_qanss_ridge_ar2,0.02201995142735647,0.8910063874985662,8085 | |
| 5 | +1,eq_lgbm_ar2,0.022054549402128722,0.8924063459234651,8085 | |
| 6 | +1,eq_all_with_nochange,0.022197152746241303,0.898176589827142,8085 | |
| 7 | +1,qanss,0.02301977081003199,0.9314626736646666,8085 | |
| 8 | +1,qrefa,0.02361857392167708,0.9556924000148778,8085 | |
| 9 | +1,ridge_panel,0.023947682918062055,0.9690093330212763,8085 | |
| 10 | +1,ar2_cell,0.024302983721048194,0.9833860806716241,8085 | |
| 11 | +3,lightgbm_panel,0.03159900048140986,0.7542209399189601,7595 | |
| 12 | +3,eq_lgbm_qanss,0.03184932409936664,0.7601957907542056,7595 | |
| 13 | +3,eq_lgbm_qanss_ridge_ar2,0.03205208019697204,0.7650352759334984,7595 | |
| 14 | +3,eq_all_with_nochange,0.03262150037455353,0.7786264849907911,7595 | |
| 15 | +3,eq_lgbm_ar2,0.032967537334454136,0.7868858703247189,7595 | |
| 16 | +3,qrefa,0.03420794595171091,0.8164925711360743,7595 | |
| 17 | +3,qanss,0.034825334979270706,0.8312287249880214,7595 | |
| 18 | +3,ridge_panel,0.03517179656190669,0.839498245432355,7595 | |
| 19 | +3,ar2_cell,0.03759399329582076,0.897312463271178,7595 | |
| 20 | +6,eq_all_with_nochange,0.039161059687389026,0.7287905397579341,6125 | |
| 21 | +6,eq_lgbm_qanss,0.0394826199484807,0.7347748026485823,6125 | |
| 22 | +6,eq_lgbm_qanss_ridge_ar2,0.039529263598277097,0.7356428448053256,6125 | |
| 23 | +6,lightgbm_panel,0.040243029382028055,0.7489260847113213,6125 | |
| 24 | +6,eq_lgbm_ar2,0.040379049700624406,0.7514574340210491,6125 | |
| 25 | +6,ar2_cell,0.043362134008534434,0.8069728781959491,6125 | |
| 26 | +6,qrefa,0.04476021221681532,0.8329912285718188,6125 | |
| 27 | +6,qanss,0.04512128501176157,0.8397108229653668,6125 | |
| 28 | +6,ridge_panel,0.0475888483414416,0.8856323793604179,6125 | |
| 29 | +12,ar2_cell,0.04741182125433489,0.6302133041204199,3185 | |
| 30 | +12,eq_all_with_nochange,0.0505485014712047,0.6719070748118788,3185 | |
| 31 | +12,eq_lgbm_ar2,0.050598072501520805,0.672565989023096,3185 | |
| 32 | +12,lightgbm_panel,0.05685686681072919,0.7557599127548417,3185 | |
| 33 | +12,eq_lgbm_qanss_ridge_ar2,0.05846030697434179,0.7770733594172031,3185 | |
| 34 | +12,eq_lgbm_qanss,0.06356048118170045,0.8448665290060083,3185 | |
| 35 | +12,qrefa,0.0761398480197341,1.0120755525997853,3185 | |
| 36 | +12,qanss,0.08104369779623316,1.0772591141841255,3185 | |
| 37 | +12,ridge_panel,0.09112859708993361,1.2113108662041672,3185 | |
added
results/extra/computational_cost.csv
+31 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,mean_seconds_per_fit,total_seconds,fits,mean_train_rows,task | |
| 2 | +ridge,0.10000000000000002,1.2000000000000002,12,314362.5833333333,A | |
| 3 | +hedonic_ols,0.30833333333333335,3.7,12,314362.5833333333,A | |
| 4 | +elastic_net,3.3666666666666667,40.4,12,314362.5833333333,A | |
| 5 | +mlp,7.7250000000000005,92.7,12,314362.5833333333,A | |
| 6 | +hshn_full,9.033333333333333,108.4,12,314362.5833333333,A | |
| 7 | +hshn_none,9.266666666666667,111.2,12,314362.5833333333,A | |
| 8 | +hshn_partial,9.491666666666667,113.9,12,314362.5833333333,A | |
| 9 | +xgboost,9.925,119.10000000000001,12,314362.5833333333,A | |
| 10 | +random_forest,29.933333333333334,359.2,12,314362.5833333333,A | |
| 11 | +svr,63.63333333333333,763.6,12,314362.5833333333,A | |
| 12 | +lightgbm,155.01666666666668,1860.2,12,314362.5833333333,A | |
| 13 | +no_change,0.0,0.0,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 14 | +ar2_cell,0.0,0.0,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 15 | +seasonal_naive,0.0,0.0,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 16 | +mean_growth,0.0,0.0,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 17 | +ridge_panel,0.0,0.0,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 18 | +rw_drift,0.0,0.0,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 19 | +momentum,0.0,0.0,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 20 | +bhpf,0.19444444444444445,7.0,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 21 | +qanss,0.21666666666666667,7.8,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 22 | +mlp_panel,1.0,36.0,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 23 | +local_linear_trend,1.6,57.6,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 24 | +raref,3.9000000000000004,140.4,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 25 | +dsgfn,4.883333333333334,175.8,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 26 | +tft_lite,5.038888888888889,181.4,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 27 | +lightgbm_panel,5.844444444444445,210.4,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 28 | +gru,7.050000000000001,253.8,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 29 | +lstm,8.93611111111111,321.7,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 30 | +qrefa,10.363888888888889,373.1,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
| 31 | +tcn,186.0027777777778,6696.1,36,5784.722222222223,B | |
added
results/extra/decline_b.csv
+49 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,h,n,share_declines,brier_decline,brier_skill_decline,brier_up2,brier_skill_up2 | |
| 2 | +lightgbm_panel,1,8085,0.40321583178726034,0.21928315987886524,0.08872299497677905,0.16602721493965827,0.16080006570522476 | |
| 3 | +bhpf,1,8085,0.40321583178726034,0.2262226156087177,0.059884636219615484,0.20689922180995976,-0.045791278325443274 | |
| 4 | +raref,1,8085,0.40321583178726034,0.2263580566698373,0.05932178258050147,0.2063321071697286,-0.042924744853852115 | |
| 5 | +qanss,1,8085,0.40321583178726034,0.22645550875210235,0.05891680008340128,0.18874635846549534,0.04596405065163578 | |
| 6 | +ridge_panel,1,8085,0.40321583178726034,0.23086390147832278,0.0405968026757777,0.20547466973824036,-0.03859074794600592 | |
| 7 | +qrefa,1,8085,0.40321583178726034,0.2337368979738533,0.02865746523036905,0.18507937349305467,0.0644991658076094 | |
| 8 | +momentum,1,8085,0.40321583178726034,0.23958857411434503,0.0043396019224029025,0.19481552858723092,0.01528686818347591 | |
| 9 | +ar2_cell,1,8085,0.40321583178726034,0.24384632106023515,-0.013354355457365186,0.19702025994953787,0.004142849324531128 | |
| 10 | +no_change,1,8085,0.40321583178726034,0.24396272041604133,-0.013838077309988428,0.20166772001319344,-0.01934816798534089 | |
| 11 | +mean_growth,1,8085,0.40321583178726034,0.24942067068227392,-0.03651973045164181,0.20371291997321644,-0.029685820596659918 | |
| 12 | +dsgfn,1,8085,0.40321583178726034,0.25163348443506117,-0.04571554051944671,0.20840285288943008,-0.05339152087335153 | |
| 13 | +tft_lite,1,8085,0.40321583178726034,0.2752026233492194,-0.14366202365356018,0.21536105027536884,-0.08856237398446432 | |
| 14 | +qrefa,3,7595,0.3052007899934167,0.1755423848803094,0.17217788380531418,0.2120256017216914,0.1514367265423916 | |
| 15 | +lightgbm_panel,3,7595,0.3052007899934167,0.18074860316943936,0.14762641924353548,0.20701061189976058,0.1715075865946607 | |
| 16 | +dsgfn,3,7595,0.3052007899934167,0.18185853205787755,0.14239222077984814,0.23544214062476757,0.05771967188818994 | |
| 17 | +bhpf,3,7595,0.3052007899934167,0.18411549152556178,0.13174885983896834,0.2173244448875677,0.1302298361203731 | |
| 18 | +ridge_panel,3,7595,0.3052007899934167,0.18794442747989878,0.1136923781143161,0.22027454388065595,0.11842302770539259 | |
| 19 | +raref,3,7595,0.3052007899934167,0.1938523074308455,0.08583202013552083,0.22740925436197365,0.08986867751354088 | |
| 20 | +qanss,3,7595,0.3052007899934167,0.1967151549893861,0.07233141442214985,0.21603966154442186,0.1353717621448287 | |
| 21 | +momentum,3,7595,0.3052007899934167,0.2053672870591195,0.03152972265724541,0.242168533721719,0.03079947876734268 | |
| 22 | +ar2_cell,3,7595,0.3052007899934167,0.2077906270383743,0.020101745127751758,0.24581113351998804,0.016221161886665003 | |
| 23 | +no_change,3,7595,0.3052007899934167,0.2166040584200815,-0.021460601323882278,0.25511032851350995,-0.02099583115637982 | |
| 24 | +tft_lite,3,7595,0.3052007899934167,0.22336772133246965,-0.053356657362874316,0.24771557462211855,0.008599257915594904 | |
| 25 | +mean_growth,3,7595,0.3052007899934167,0.22572834638583555,-0.0644888840815212,0.2640650311468166,-0.05683410595742133 | |
| 26 | +qrefa,6,6125,0.22922448979591836,0.16559324812586895,0.06275376866440074,0.22289448379821586,0.051618700095309555 | |
| 27 | +dsgfn,6,6125,0.22922448979591836,0.1700969499809324,0.03726313037757356,0.24097467928995442,-0.025309714689996987 | |
| 28 | +momentum,6,6125,0.22922448979591836,0.17065191714194894,0.03412205496499143,0.22268768341483686,0.05249860350551372 | |
| 29 | +lightgbm_panel,6,6125,0.22922448979591836,0.17402607745011303,0.01502454302812084,0.23906653164814418,-0.017190843778017273 | |
| 30 | +ar2_cell,6,6125,0.22922448979591836,0.17619756964515887,0.0027340487041348505,0.23214222525077768,0.012271001083149047 | |
| 31 | +no_change,6,6125,0.22922448979591836,0.17859085236866623,-0.010811764537132396,0.23696632312850274,-0.00825478375541211 | |
| 32 | +bhpf,6,6125,0.22922448979591836,0.17881543407288783,-0.012082881314482208,0.23447121970524365,0.002361492554455169 | |
| 33 | +qanss,6,6125,0.22922448979591836,0.18148693988984244,-0.027203417853681078,0.22348342244046165,0.0491128579336757 | |
| 34 | +raref,6,6125,0.22922448979591836,0.18464495469516598,-0.045077561324444515,0.2434499129028816,-0.035841448052769787 | |
| 35 | +tft_lite,6,6125,0.22922448979591836,0.18565414246188722,-0.0507894936753972,0.25361836227583107,-0.07910661581287948 | |
| 36 | +ridge_panel,6,6125,0.22922448979591836,0.18599398866111114,-0.05271299945272356,0.24948469088186243,-0.06151848808900162 | |
| 37 | +mean_growth,6,6125,0.22922448979591836,0.1867070568828642,-0.056748915838729985,0.24253306773348074,-0.03194041470842324 | |
| 38 | +ar2_cell,12,3185,0.09795918367346938,0.08904263744412978,-0.007689350034670195,0.15212649134579986,-0.013257499059329936 | |
| 39 | +momentum,12,3185,0.09795918367346938,0.08926895858318873,-0.01025061066287769,0.15198940606671982,-0.01234442543349612 | |
| 40 | +no_change,12,3185,0.09795918367346938,0.08950572832216319,-0.012930117371388716,0.1529014133400336,-0.018418963804208044 | |
| 41 | +lightgbm_panel,12,3185,0.09795918367346938,0.0901163254482887,-0.01984020268354625,0.16207171593128789,-0.0794989097559633 | |
| 42 | +raref,12,3185,0.09795918367346938,0.09446081461915624,-0.06900648520264951,0.17348894611644758,-0.15554479763030415 | |
| 43 | +ridge_panel,12,3185,0.09795918367346938,0.0946304231330352,-0.07092593298650796,0.17411600923673923,-0.15972142987494586 | |
| 44 | +tft_lite,12,3185,0.09795918367346938,0.09496108208330867,-0.074667977385106,0.17414281150092037,-0.15989994970362953 | |
| 45 | +dsgfn,12,3185,0.09795918367346938,0.09582739220659943,-0.08447194894440635,0.17380776213872323,-0.15766831157276906 | |
| 46 | +qrefa,12,3185,0.09795918367346938,0.09657975733218348,-0.0929864128703457,0.17547144593644534,-0.168749485332792 | |
| 47 | +bhpf,12,3185,0.09795918367346938,0.09708369011912137,-0.0986893852564592,0.17534334892722206,-0.16789627920114247 | |
| 48 | +mean_growth,12,3185,0.09795918367346938,0.0985618819366152,-0.11541797949572552,0.16636592700161326,-0.10810103901733004 | |
| 49 | +qanss,12,3185,0.09795918367346938,0.17994451392381264,-1.0364195792377173,0.2384506757870825,-0.5882305130394183 | |
added
results/extra/decline_reliability_b.csv
+174 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,174 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,h,bin,p_mean,freq,n | |
| 2 | +dsgfn,3,0,0.06715080351673869,0.17900460058552906,4782 | |
| 3 | +dsgfn,3,1,0.2763106783296177,0.3779697624190065,1389 | |
| 4 | +dsgfn,3,2,0.4858286546221049,0.5552147239263804,652 | |
| 5 | +dsgfn,3,3,0.6987776227950181,0.6906474820143885,417 | |
| 6 | +dsgfn,3,4,0.8987970798187862,0.8084507042253521,355 | |
| 7 | +momentum,1,1,0.35603352507121827,0.36815657233536103,3781 | |
| 8 | +momentum,1,2,0.44930379970957696,0.4363327674023769,4123 | |
| 9 | +momentum,1,3,0.653082082391672,0.41818181818181815,165 | |
| 10 | +lightgbm_panel,12,0,0.039536397141444704,0.09449071108263933,3122 | |
| 11 | +lightgbm_panel,12,1,0.24555556074220414,0.26229508196721313,61 | |
| 12 | +tft_lite,1,0,0.08350933898634363,0.2806799336650083,2412 | |
| 13 | +tft_lite,1,1,0.29245615069054265,0.43254168772107127,1979 | |
| 14 | +tft_lite,1,2,0.4968946181070879,0.4602739726027397,1825 | |
| 15 | +tft_lite,1,3,0.6981945622868063,0.5179738562091504,1224 | |
| 16 | +tft_lite,1,4,0.8985154335360965,0.3922480620155039,645 | |
| 17 | +raref,3,0,0.10249115729343944,0.16744427164333853,3858 | |
| 18 | +raref,3,1,0.282349710248347,0.39544869042507513,2329 | |
| 19 | +raref,3,2,0.48363772430860547,0.5088372093023256,1075 | |
| 20 | +raref,3,3,0.6774257669033931,0.5993265993265994,297 | |
| 21 | +raref,3,4,0.8518424832262446,0.7222222222222222,36 | |
| 22 | +qanss,12,0,0.1289235576861158,0.08555729984301413,1274 | |
| 23 | +qanss,12,1,0.27027726805702795,0.11615720524017467,1145 | |
| 24 | +qanss,12,2,0.4826506730433061,0.14285714285714285,266 | |
| 25 | +qanss,12,3,0.7094605981452314,0.06728538283062645,431 | |
| 26 | +qanss,12,4,0.8391277119438898,0.043478260869565216,69 | |
| 27 | +momentum,3,0,0.16875886243737395,0.05855855855855856,222 | |
| 28 | +momentum,3,1,0.3019787588449655,0.28384576184814,5887 | |
| 29 | +momentum,3,2,0.46639905991391833,0.41530460624071325,1346 | |
| 30 | +momentum,3,3,0.6505724672815569,0.5441176470588235,136 | |
| 31 | +mean_growth,3,0,0.16498712559372403,0.4556213017751479,169 | |
| 32 | +mean_growth,3,1,0.30326884714211116,0.31140566192112584,6111 | |
| 33 | +mean_growth,3,2,0.4408090037480613,0.25687352710133543,1273 | |
| 34 | +mean_growth,3,3,0.6688923546540047,0.30303030303030304,33 | |
| 35 | +no_change,6,1,0.24455008452934282,0.22922448979591836,6125 | |
| 36 | +ridge_panel,12,0,0.01850255881149947,0.09795918367346938,3185 | |
| 37 | +bhpf,12,0,0.018724521391682267,0.09670188920909382,3123 | |
| 38 | +bhpf,12,1,0.2692001020390746,0.1388888888888889,36 | |
| 39 | +dsgfn,1,0,0.08911785739356655,0.26205083260297984,3423 | |
| 40 | +dsgfn,1,1,0.28204793947223933,0.4835805084745763,1888 | |
| 41 | +dsgfn,1,2,0.49190050683283043,0.4909090909090909,1375 | |
| 42 | +dsgfn,1,3,0.703433167987663,0.5115115115115115,999 | |
| 43 | +dsgfn,1,4,0.8926278280639214,0.66,400 | |
| 44 | +mean_growth,6,0,0.16329207149892264,0.22998805256869773,1674 | |
| 45 | +mean_growth,6,1,0.26178184395919535,0.23157637872132747,4098 | |
| 46 | +mean_growth,6,2,0.4628207510823782,0.19601328903654486,301 | |
| 47 | +mean_growth,6,3,0.6619072313440437,0.2777777777777778,36 | |
| 48 | +qanss,1,0,0.15735637449619608,0.12903225806451613,155 | |
| 49 | +qanss,1,1,0.32600430479855247,0.24231557377049182,1952 | |
| 50 | +qanss,1,2,0.4910165140195849,0.43634281351402937,5239 | |
| 51 | +qanss,1,3,0.6581855113007292,0.6526610644257703,714 | |
| 52 | +ridge_panel,6,0,0.08181067141843683,0.16990833892242344,4473 | |
| 53 | +ridge_panel,6,1,0.2701344723005641,0.43578485181119647,911 | |
| 54 | +ridge_panel,6,2,0.4893296724062224,0.34972677595628415,366 | |
| 55 | +ridge_panel,6,3,0.6939050164966458,0.31100478468899523,209 | |
| 56 | +ridge_panel,6,4,0.8927306623812029,0.3253012048192771,166 | |
| 57 | +momentum,12,0,0.08750338775473954,0.09802073515551367,3183 | |
| 58 | +momentum,6,0,0.16393315289088942,0.12451577199778639,1807 | |
| 59 | +momentum,6,1,0.2567906686490287,0.2439222042139384,3702 | |
| 60 | +momentum,6,2,0.47703066758672374,0.4407158836689038,447 | |
| 61 | +momentum,6,3,0.6760699261013963,0.4591194968553459,159 | |
| 62 | +tft_lite,6,0,0.05523546810543744,0.1691350075123417,4659 | |
| 63 | +tft_lite,6,1,0.2791792616599123,0.4083224967490247,769 | |
| 64 | +tft_lite,6,2,0.48417249019024955,0.48502994011976047,334 | |
| 65 | +tft_lite,6,3,0.7081855843982741,0.46153846153846156,169 | |
| 66 | +tft_lite,6,4,0.9159185442907664,0.31958762886597936,194 | |
| 67 | +qanss,6,0,0.14230087990405602,0.10131004366812227,1145 | |
| 68 | +qanss,6,1,0.2913107044309835,0.17663617171006332,2842 | |
| 69 | +qanss,6,2,0.4805246039636889,0.31917717319177175,1507 | |
| 70 | +qanss,6,3,0.7002258205131102,0.42411642411642414,481 | |
| 71 | +qanss,6,4,0.8554456481298037,0.6733333333333333,150 | |
| 72 | +lightgbm_panel,1,0,0.14214750928867362,0.1587205793602897,1657 | |
| 73 | +lightgbm_panel,1,1,0.28229981622092126,0.33613445378151263,2618 | |
| 74 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2,0.5000034042599989,0.5226628895184136,2118 | |
| 75 | +lightgbm_panel,1,3,0.7049906645046846,0.5846372688477952,1406 | |
| 76 | +lightgbm_panel,1,4,0.8364657177248607,0.6573426573426573,286 | |
| 77 | +no_change,12,0,0.0824984201487327,0.09795918367346938,3185 | |
| 78 | +bhpf,3,0,0.10629809474001384,0.11711711711711711,3108 | |
| 79 | +bhpf,3,1,0.2873074744073827,0.3773519163763066,2870 | |
| 80 | +bhpf,3,2,0.48049567463867426,0.5231884057971015,1380 | |
| 81 | +bhpf,3,3,0.6739598027131073,0.6462264150943396,212 | |
| 82 | +ar2_cell,12,0,0.0909820539498257,0.0971826527382083,3159 | |
| 83 | +qrefa,6,0,0.06709568306597924,0.14097434690515415,4249 | |
| 84 | +qrefa,6,1,0.2747704417091895,0.39299610894941633,1028 | |
| 85 | +qrefa,6,2,0.49489432286925555,0.4657534246575342,438 | |
| 86 | +qrefa,6,3,0.6942342252911248,0.43109540636042404,283 | |
| 87 | +qrefa,6,4,0.8773406488597189,0.5905511811023622,127 | |
| 88 | +lightgbm_panel,3,0,0.09424456776148477,0.13521288837744533,3476 | |
| 89 | +lightgbm_panel,3,1,0.2828784521082697,0.35732984293193715,2292 | |
| 90 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2,0.4864472747312396,0.5174013921113689,1293 | |
| 91 | +lightgbm_panel,3,3,0.7000054138043528,0.6731517509727627,514 | |
| 92 | +no_change,3,1,0.32527180745066825,0.3052007899934167,7595 | |
| 93 | +lightgbm_panel,6,0,0.07026878989868594,0.16497861805086653,4443 | |
| 94 | +lightgbm_panel,6,1,0.27636082406911194,0.40375203915171287,1226 | |
| 95 | +lightgbm_panel,6,2,0.47066320940527917,0.40718562874251496,334 | |
| 96 | +lightgbm_panel,6,3,0.7167078339388682,0.3063063063063063,111 | |
| 97 | +qanss,3,0,0.152819498091395,0.10176991150442478,678 | |
| 98 | +qanss,3,1,0.30314084369546385,0.20768772348033374,3356 | |
| 99 | +qanss,3,2,0.4818572199025177,0.3956228956228956,2970 | |
| 100 | +qanss,3,3,0.6699667498401122,0.6373429084380611,557 | |
| 101 | +qanss,3,4,0.8461640276504445,0.6470588235294118,34 | |
| 102 | +mean_growth,12,0,0.06816298933353863,0.09595613433858807,2918 | |
| 103 | +mean_growth,12,1,0.2660259681559862,0.10328638497652583,213 | |
| 104 | +mean_growth,1,1,0.36398791253130514,0.46147672552166935,3738 | |
| 105 | +mean_growth,1,2,0.43756785149290495,0.3527777777777778,4320 | |
| 106 | +raref,6,0,0.0870516561033389,0.163632173311823,4339 | |
| 107 | +raref,6,1,0.26496703020478846,0.4273255813953488,1032 | |
| 108 | +raref,6,2,0.48536187377639506,0.36528497409326427,386 | |
| 109 | +raref,6,3,0.6896589124487723,0.29064039408866993,203 | |
| 110 | +raref,6,4,0.8947939416630462,0.3212121212121212,165 | |
| 111 | +qrefa,12,0,0.015300286792315385,0.09694850603941513,3146 | |
| 112 | +raref,1,0,0.14611466025981415,0.21836228287841192,1612 | |
| 113 | +raref,1,1,0.2847702587078259,0.36910994764397903,3820 | |
| 114 | +raref,1,2,0.4898757166048819,0.5349322210636079,1918 | |
| 115 | +raref,1,3,0.6816492223996332,0.635036496350365,685 | |
| 116 | +raref,1,4,0.8556537964101593,0.74,50 | |
| 117 | +tft_lite,3,0,0.07675281401673761,0.1827641408751334,3748 | |
| 118 | +tft_lite,3,1,0.28150731452722294,0.35714285714285715,1596 | |
| 119 | +tft_lite,3,2,0.49457472088358456,0.5135135135135135,962 | |
| 120 | +tft_lite,3,3,0.7027669502207505,0.4602446483180428,654 | |
| 121 | +tft_lite,3,4,0.8895928425038547,0.4220472440944882,635 | |
| 122 | +ar2_cell,6,0,0.15279999772284852,0.13949579831932774,1785 | |
| 123 | +ar2_cell,6,1,0.2639671352479718,0.24729692265040198,3607 | |
| 124 | +ar2_cell,6,2,0.4800138208049124,0.3472222222222222,576 | |
| 125 | +ar2_cell,6,3,0.6771946448293591,0.410958904109589,146 | |
| 126 | +tft_lite,12,0,0.03299717237569648,0.09437086092715231,3020 | |
| 127 | +tft_lite,12,1,0.27070397895341836,0.14754098360655737,122 | |
| 128 | +tft_lite,12,2,0.4660631774286463,0.21621621621621623,37 | |
| 129 | +qrefa,3,0,0.08245421075289111,0.15403665180782566,4038 | |
| 130 | +qrefa,3,1,0.2803892445431945,0.3490909090909091,1925 | |
| 131 | +qrefa,3,2,0.4880058342243553,0.5706161137440758,1055 | |
| 132 | +qrefa,3,3,0.6892559032733916,0.727069351230425,447 | |
| 133 | +qrefa,3,4,0.846613549327596,0.7461538461538462,130 | |
| 134 | +ar2_cell,1,0,0.16708962225898957,0.14473684210526316,76 | |
| 135 | +ar2_cell,1,1,0.33427699602406774,0.37312647909545094,3803 | |
| 136 | +ar2_cell,1,2,0.46507241393283133,0.43781225348409153,3803 | |
| 137 | +ar2_cell,1,3,0.6619990864948796,0.41494845360824745,388 | |
| 138 | +no_change,1,1,0.3901365757081219,0.6031746031746031,2205 | |
| 139 | +no_change,1,2,0.415284704317469,0.3282312925170068,5880 | |
| 140 | +bhpf,1,0,0.14254825509773275,0.215,600 | |
| 141 | +bhpf,1,1,0.30850153059868773,0.32825178264076715,4067 | |
| 142 | +bhpf,1,2,0.48041134501494187,0.5062937062937063,2860 | |
| 143 | +bhpf,1,3,0.6681421541655176,0.6197718631178707,526 | |
| 144 | +bhpf,1,4,0.8643433170659776,0.6875,32 | |
| 145 | +ridge_panel,1,0,0.15513540160360478,0.24027916251246262,1003 | |
| 146 | +ridge_panel,1,1,0.28215877509172976,0.3537337291619091,4379 | |
| 147 | +ridge_panel,1,2,0.4841891838283919,0.5183714001986097,2014 | |
| 148 | +ridge_panel,1,3,0.6832205977457411,0.6167192429022083,634 | |
| 149 | +ridge_panel,1,4,0.8516335865086094,0.6363636363636364,55 | |
| 150 | +raref,12,0,0.019829627908816594,0.09795918367346938,3185 | |
| 151 | +dsgfn,6,0,0.049411016144121904,0.15966386554621848,4403 | |
| 152 | +dsgfn,6,1,0.2831748224611858,0.35,960 | |
| 153 | +dsgfn,6,2,0.48091820350472736,0.4568421052631579,475 | |
| 154 | +dsgfn,6,3,0.6911767763348893,0.5454545454545454,231 | |
| 155 | +dsgfn,6,4,0.8772965637446417,0.39285714285714285,56 | |
| 156 | +bhpf,6,0,0.07998849864450445,0.14895635673624288,4216 | |
| 157 | +bhpf,6,1,0.27352601014178607,0.40355555555555556,1125 | |
| 158 | +bhpf,6,2,0.48530085008599577,0.480719794344473,389 | |
| 159 | +bhpf,6,3,0.6895185165723486,0.3422222222222222,225 | |
| 160 | +bhpf,6,4,0.8957090125537625,0.3411764705882353,170 | |
| 161 | +ridge_panel,3,0,0.10607994295859939,0.15231063713426304,3657 | |
| 162 | +ridge_panel,3,1,0.2774916179345424,0.39185072353389183,2626 | |
| 163 | +ridge_panel,3,2,0.482122602249961,0.52321083172147,1034 | |
| 164 | +ridge_panel,3,3,0.6823623590493696,0.6827309236947792,249 | |
| 165 | +ar2_cell,3,0,0.15932277121871133,0.13793103448275862,377 | |
| 166 | +ar2_cell,3,1,0.2993891745694674,0.27837178765709997,5331 | |
| 167 | +ar2_cell,3,2,0.47167566691788554,0.4143356643356643,1716 | |
| 168 | +ar2_cell,3,3,0.66347412280948,0.42168674698795183,166 | |
| 169 | +qrefa,1,0,0.10473561580767253,0.21701477330616403,1963 | |
| 170 | +qrefa,1,1,0.29098025373537284,0.3813077469793888,2814 | |
| 171 | +qrefa,1,2,0.4930577589687057,0.5023498694516971,1915 | |
| 172 | +qrefa,1,3,0.6932000394262345,0.565008025682183,1246 | |
| 173 | +qrefa,1,4,0.835879160174785,0.6462585034013606,147 | |
| 174 | +dsgfn,12,0,0.018106648634388836,0.09649681528662421,3140 | |
added
results/extra/directional_b.csv
+49 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,h,directional_accuracy,n,directional_accuracy_at_turning_points,n_turning | |
| 2 | +lightgbm_panel,1,0.6975914362176628,6726,0.7681647940074906,2670 | |
| 3 | +qanss,1,0.6681534344335415,6726,0.7460674157303371,2670 | |
| 4 | +raref,1,0.6613143027059173,6726,0.6827715355805244,2670 | |
| 5 | +ridge_panel,1,0.6531370799881059,6726,0.6842696629213483,2670 | |
| 6 | +bhpf,1,0.6515016354445435,6726,0.6734082397003746,2670 | |
| 7 | +qrefa,1,0.6471900089206066,6726,0.702996254681648,2670 | |
| 8 | +dsgfn,1,0.6286054118346714,6726,0.6558052434456929,2670 | |
| 9 | +mean_growth,1,0.6034790365744871,6726,0.5108614232209738,2670 | |
| 10 | +tft_lite,1,0.5955991674100506,6726,0.6636704119850187,2670 | |
| 11 | +ar2_cell,1,0.5944097531965506,6726,0.6528089887640449,2670 | |
| 12 | +momentum,1,0.5251263752601844,6726,0.7220973782771536,2670 | |
| 13 | +no_change,1,0.0,6726,0.0,2670 | |
| 14 | +dsgfn,3,0.7700565791382562,6893,0.6546003016591252,1326 | |
| 15 | +qrefa,3,0.7642535905991585,6893,0.6636500754147813,1326 | |
| 16 | +lightgbm_panel,3,0.7491658203975047,6893,0.6478129713423831,1326 | |
| 17 | +ridge_panel,3,0.7342231249093283,6893,0.579185520361991,1326 | |
| 18 | +bhpf,3,0.7319019294936893,6893,0.5723981900452488,1326 | |
| 19 | +qanss,3,0.7319019294936893,6893,0.6063348416289592,1326 | |
| 20 | +raref,3,0.7272595386624111,6893,0.5761689291101055,1326 | |
| 21 | +ar2_cell,3,0.706513854635137,6893,0.5754147812971342,1326 | |
| 22 | +mean_growth,3,0.7020165385173365,6893,0.49547511312217196,1326 | |
| 23 | +tft_lite,3,0.6936022051356449,6893,0.6546003016591252,1326 | |
| 24 | +momentum,3,0.5029740316262875,6893,0.6945701357466063,1326 | |
| 25 | +no_change,3,0.0,6893,0.0,1326 | |
| 26 | +dsgfn,6,0.7929407653328674,5723,0.6,720 | |
| 27 | +ar2_cell,6,0.7796610169491526,5723,0.6041666666666666,720 | |
| 28 | +qrefa,6,0.7796610169491526,5723,0.6166666666666667,720 | |
| 29 | +mean_growth,6,0.7775642145727765,5723,0.5125,720 | |
| 30 | +lightgbm_panel,6,0.7759916127904944,5723,0.5916666666666667,720 | |
| 31 | +tft_lite,6,0.7719727415691071,5723,0.5972222222222222,720 | |
| 32 | +bhpf,6,0.7670802026908964,5723,0.5875,720 | |
| 33 | +qanss,6,0.7644591997204263,5723,0.6388888888888888,720 | |
| 34 | +ridge_panel,6,0.7572951249344749,5723,0.5875,720 | |
| 35 | +raref,6,0.7564214572776515,5723,0.5763888888888888,720 | |
| 36 | +momentum,6,0.44749257382491703,5723,0.6819444444444445,720 | |
| 37 | +no_change,6,0.0,5723,0.0,720 | |
| 38 | +ridge_panel,12,0.9140726329442282,3084,0.4807692307692308,156 | |
| 39 | +raref,12,0.9140726329442282,3084,0.4807692307692308,156 | |
| 40 | +ar2_cell,12,0.9137483787289234,3084,0.4807692307692308,156 | |
| 41 | +lightgbm_panel,12,0.9124513618677043,3084,0.47435897435897434,156 | |
| 42 | +qrefa,12,0.9118028534370947,3084,0.4807692307692308,156 | |
| 43 | +dsgfn,12,0.9118028534370947,3084,0.47435897435897434,156 | |
| 44 | +tft_lite,12,0.9111543450064851,3084,0.47435897435897434,156 | |
| 45 | +bhpf,12,0.9108300907911803,3084,0.48717948717948717,156 | |
| 46 | +mean_growth,12,0.9049935149156939,3084,0.47435897435897434,156 | |
| 47 | +qanss,12,0.7454604409857328,3084,0.5,156 | |
| 48 | +momentum,12,0.4565499351491569,3084,0.47435897435897434,156 | |
| 49 | +no_change,12,0.0,3084,0.0,156 | |
added
results/extra/dollar_errors_a.csv
+10 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,property_class,mae_log,median_price,median_abs_dollar_error | |
| 2 | +lightgbm,condo,0.13295862624467703,364000.0,32004.94167981131 | |
| 3 | +hedonic_ols,condo,0.15618149485959565,364000.0,37899.91144123813 | |
| 4 | +naive_mun_median,condo,0.34920150406863276,364000.0,127000.00000000023 | |
| 5 | +lightgbm,house,0.2301732867892592,420000.0,61101.603365673625 | |
| 6 | +hedonic_ols,house,0.24857599265932062,420000.0,67889.32311124093 | |
| 7 | +naive_mun_median,house,0.3446170987598036,420000.0,92749.94543867081 | |
| 8 | +lightgbm,plex,0.2401647768344957,510000.0,80114.56133316775 | |
| 9 | +hedonic_ols,plex,0.26616940992414806,510000.0,88707.32112269053 | |
| 10 | +naive_mun_median,plex,0.37601126131012175,510000.0,135000.00000000032 | |
added
results/extra/error_by_month_horizon_a.csv
+37 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,h,mae,bias | |
| 2 | +hedonic_ols,1,0.2322375385898621,-0.002313309623125928 | |
| 3 | +hedonic_ols,2,0.23388746757162054,-0.015509036470425628 | |
| 4 | +hedonic_ols,3,0.231342658423118,-0.030772534582915193 | |
| 5 | +hedonic_ols,4,0.23946124891064413,-0.029138858042818145 | |
| 6 | +hedonic_ols,5,0.23989246034755343,-0.03627113982900254 | |
| 7 | +hedonic_ols,6,0.23499620257978338,-0.04705758228876128 | |
| 8 | +hedonic_ols,7,0.2439108907992567,-0.047150519355851905 | |
| 9 | +hedonic_ols,8,0.24297991161666677,-0.05550705749184562 | |
| 10 | +hedonic_ols,9,0.23853184832950797,-0.06377528825545169 | |
| 11 | +hedonic_ols,10,0.24767976802311478,-0.06137217988888183 | |
| 12 | +hedonic_ols,11,0.24852252777950598,-0.06912638412236809 | |
| 13 | +hedonic_ols,12,0.2455153036202498,-0.07981370326437455 | |
| 14 | +hshn_partial,1,0.21727594927479607,0.03456881520376606 | |
| 15 | +hshn_partial,2,0.24483966693192147,-0.07323135549701365 | |
| 16 | +hshn_partial,3,0.20994592575549695,0.03321059675652394 | |
| 17 | +hshn_partial,4,0.2534071749427232,-0.08790734922202775 | |
| 18 | +hshn_partial,5,0.2499855803602262,-0.08830043468170523 | |
| 19 | +hshn_partial,6,0.21060439660456504,0.03368536077844323 | |
| 20 | +hshn_partial,7,0.2525855911143935,-0.08926074352036027 | |
| 21 | +hshn_partial,8,0.25589640982130574,-0.10445971698590606 | |
| 22 | +hshn_partial,9,0.24832691935477583,-0.10603461575051021 | |
| 23 | +hshn_partial,10,0.26370365818069913,-0.11677328219789834 | |
| 24 | +hshn_partial,11,0.2646527021183698,-0.12218301845434607 | |
| 25 | +hshn_partial,12,0.210363489715414,0.021039854377550557 | |
| 26 | +lightgbm,1,0.2106100613722259,-0.002460264238665469 | |
| 27 | +lightgbm,2,0.21320434545939174,-0.017147493854235103 | |
| 28 | +lightgbm,3,0.21236898848131316,-0.032361841141315496 | |
| 29 | +lightgbm,4,0.2203661791285744,-0.03110363983322278 | |
| 30 | +lightgbm,5,0.22191276539041443,-0.04031941609144951 | |
| 31 | +lightgbm,6,0.21898309068069244,-0.052210457409264416 | |
| 32 | +lightgbm,7,0.22712839575865232,-0.05318688012483801 | |
| 33 | +lightgbm,8,0.22707322353863243,-0.06102020486201744 | |
| 34 | +lightgbm,9,0.22230199031561976,-0.06827222276786722 | |
| 35 | +lightgbm,10,0.2300863809356702,-0.06477463457016697 | |
| 36 | +lightgbm,11,0.23019058499530526,-0.0699309493462052 | |
| 37 | +lightgbm,12,0.22584122424257946,-0.07787195158860516 | |
added
results/extra/error_by_origin_a.csv
+85 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,85 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,origin,mae,bias,n | |
| 2 | +hedonic_ols,2022-12,0.24290358243858146,-0.01440520615884139,89153 | |
| 3 | +hedonic_ols,2023-03,0.25409691036697757,-0.06351344134256069,88975 | |
| 4 | +hedonic_ols,2023-06,0.23966719311682091,-0.02717528240744094,95064 | |
| 5 | +hedonic_ols,2023-09,0.23982765797877945,-0.03812384323895016,96137 | |
| 6 | +hedonic_ols,2023-12,0.2445398191220477,-0.06375509238502129,102383 | |
| 7 | +hedonic_ols,2024-03,0.24622635160491319,-0.07940036610246111,107792 | |
| 8 | +hedonic_ols,2024-06,0.23655371005577347,-0.04993993646648074,111049 | |
| 9 | +hedonic_ols,2024-09,0.23808976894023437,-0.05481660600631366,114895 | |
| 10 | +hedonic_ols,2024-12,0.24115808292797394,-0.06355640257854257,116017 | |
| 11 | +hedonic_ols,2025-03,0.23778283481819806,-0.05727528875751125,114840 | |
| 12 | +hedonic_ols,2025-06,0.23082532537108028,-0.01927454962043211,111422 | |
| 13 | +hedonic_ols,2025-09,0.2308313840777607,-0.010243209638880955,108171 | |
| 14 | +hshn_partial,2022-12,0.24649979466717378,0.00043640733935585113,89153 | |
| 15 | +hshn_partial,2023-03,0.2491831399235262,-0.023663718757451862,88975 | |
| 16 | +hshn_partial,2023-06,0.25094670309371864,-0.06742033701838428,95064 | |
| 17 | +hshn_partial,2023-09,0.24154745691284676,-0.049752719558797474,96137 | |
| 18 | +hshn_partial,2023-12,0.2437527904004438,-0.06807934637213124,102383 | |
| 19 | +hshn_partial,2024-03,0.23335544496549857,-0.0556078186310364,107792 | |
| 20 | +hshn_partial,2024-06,0.23528619737368076,-0.065088249326129,111049 | |
| 21 | +hshn_partial,2024-09,0.24281608992582504,-0.07728768132977251,114895 | |
| 22 | +hshn_partial,2024-12,0.24744517402083363,-0.08849755004764784,116017 | |
| 23 | +hshn_partial,2025-03,0.2321330214600399,-0.06124954815238576,114840 | |
| 24 | +hshn_partial,2025-06,0.2275879322339522,-0.040402860793528866,111422 | |
| 25 | +hshn_partial,2025-09,0.2273206673962045,-0.032611184794003684,108171 | |
| 26 | +lightgbm,2022-12,0.23263196479907253,-0.04610543322563965,89153 | |
| 27 | +lightgbm,2023-03,0.24280402628335784,-0.07917645787876051,88975 | |
| 28 | +lightgbm,2023-06,0.21488526332788896,-0.013632559233620015,95064 | |
| 29 | +lightgbm,2023-09,0.22347838158083888,-0.050797012888546815,96137 | |
| 30 | +lightgbm,2023-12,0.23017283346611975,-0.07510154867389336,102383 | |
| 31 | +lightgbm,2024-03,0.2254903903483664,-0.06924487072833768,107792 | |
| 32 | +lightgbm,2024-06,0.2103265469871617,-0.02737659472155792,111049 | |
| 33 | +lightgbm,2024-09,0.2190803123968321,-0.052968840873388344,114895 | |
| 34 | +lightgbm,2024-12,0.22636711177249855,-0.07185618257061614,116017 | |
| 35 | +lightgbm,2025-03,0.21853890341240767,-0.05484215652081409,114840 | |
| 36 | +lightgbm,2025-06,0.2065549409360414,-0.007543606616072873,111422 | |
| 37 | +lightgbm,2025-09,0.21625627169251677,-0.03379171729645143,108171 | |
| 38 | +mlp,2022-12,0.31284482972677274,-0.0459170505841187,89153 | |
| 39 | +mlp,2023-03,0.3215042353059358,0.10438947336621653,88975 | |
| 40 | +mlp,2023-06,0.3430804296539768,-0.19585749919633233,95064 | |
| 41 | +mlp,2023-09,0.2664632592174151,0.0016542680657369822,96137 | |
| 42 | +mlp,2023-12,0.2558167043632246,-0.004199866752299562,102383 | |
| 43 | +mlp,2024-03,0.2562281300745091,0.0991440722729075,107792 | |
| 44 | +mlp,2024-06,0.2461244602346664,-0.019480228872778452,111049 | |
| 45 | +mlp,2024-09,0.23187481173315871,0.04804626323518528,114895 | |
| 46 | +mlp,2024-12,0.22955384044101776,0.0013989919501715491,116017 | |
| 47 | +mlp,2025-03,0.23099448281689497,0.07738759537265831,114840 | |
| 48 | +mlp,2025-06,0.23463573467193785,0.06254435746954304,111422 | |
| 49 | +mlp,2025-09,0.23054353373663547,0.07769588510640436,108171 | |
| 50 | +naive_mun_median,2022-12,0.35802242562743675,-0.02533144180278429,89153 | |
| 51 | +naive_mun_median,2023-03,0.36809889111007466,-0.07635965633523425,88975 | |
| 52 | +naive_mun_median,2023-06,0.3488383437865542,-0.01888605509545573,95064 | |
| 53 | +naive_mun_median,2023-09,0.34847401082392154,-0.0046600164310296645,96137 | |
| 54 | +naive_mun_median,2023-12,0.35321796110740517,-0.0502058928026364,102383 | |
| 55 | +naive_mun_median,2024-03,0.36225664423568543,-0.09194821335575926,107792 | |
| 56 | +naive_mun_median,2024-06,0.3441857580927666,-0.03481614640421069,111049 | |
| 57 | +naive_mun_median,2024-09,0.3470179234102037,-0.037658334860489376,114895 | |
| 58 | +naive_mun_median,2024-12,0.3505856540811764,-0.05807458923342819,116017 | |
| 59 | +naive_mun_median,2025-03,0.3545829737800873,-0.06386371509287582,114840 | |
| 60 | +naive_mun_median,2025-06,0.3451906688784702,-0.0161377822816468,111422 | |
| 61 | +naive_mun_median,2025-09,0.348029272301893,-0.008014652720219161,108171 | |
| 62 | +random_forest,2022-12,0.2285730635779996,-0.00024796848284299225,89153 | |
| 63 | +random_forest,2023-03,0.2400705034043989,-0.04928986929027723,88975 | |
| 64 | +random_forest,2023-06,0.2245319103741667,-0.024184312606232994,95064 | |
| 65 | +random_forest,2023-09,0.22579848668835945,-0.03833902754210029,96137 | |
| 66 | +random_forest,2023-12,0.23014519551086104,-0.05913333337355574,102383 | |
| 67 | +random_forest,2024-03,0.23554612122763965,-0.07898470254905396,107792 | |
| 68 | +random_forest,2024-06,0.22583439082015522,-0.05599786687928209,111049 | |
| 69 | +random_forest,2024-09,0.22832311693467022,-0.0622605215083172,114895 | |
| 70 | +random_forest,2024-12,0.23063838364095618,-0.06895203779423202,116017 | |
| 71 | +random_forest,2025-03,0.2291403929011519,-0.06662029238700427,114840 | |
| 72 | +random_forest,2025-06,0.2218823775622639,-0.03873648985996692,111422 | |
| 73 | +random_forest,2025-09,0.22202485543348097,-0.031138281593964347,108171 | |
| 74 | +xgboost,2022-12,0.23808456448886156,-0.05629679778272433,89153 | |
| 75 | +xgboost,2023-03,0.24176145764482027,-0.07274952139144836,88975 | |
| 76 | +xgboost,2023-06,0.21583945101105173,-0.014287037054293862,95064 | |
| 77 | +xgboost,2023-09,0.2268560056916217,-0.05947784782753937,96137 | |
| 78 | +xgboost,2023-12,0.2328791463510877,-0.08041143525657606,102383 | |
| 79 | +xgboost,2024-03,0.22755357538427218,-0.07416822893780683,107792 | |
| 80 | +xgboost,2024-06,0.21527829548110833,-0.04055555302688599,111049 | |
| 81 | +xgboost,2024-09,0.22092098251013767,-0.057809363844255786,114895 | |
| 82 | +xgboost,2024-12,0.22991813497704472,-0.08044881140476545,116017 | |
| 83 | +xgboost,2025-03,0.21907408946659734,-0.057035832091206516,114840 | |
| 84 | +xgboost,2025-06,0.20914310437707972,-0.01822577555831358,111422 | |
| 85 | +xgboost,2025-09,0.21971806382899395,-0.0432260198101803,108171 | |
added
results/extra/error_by_origin_b.csv
+1225 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,1225 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,h,origin,mae,n | |
| 2 | +ar2_cell,1,2023-12,0.019029691254125517,245 | |
| 3 | +ar2_cell,1,2024-01,0.03603963369061085,245 | |
| 4 | +ar2_cell,1,2024-02,0.03701008516844513,245 | |
| 5 | +ar2_cell,1,2024-03,0.03522495113981566,245 | |
| 6 | +ar2_cell,1,2024-04,0.03135553137312645,245 | |
| 7 | +ar2_cell,1,2024-05,0.02117278703204661,245 | |
| 8 | +ar2_cell,1,2024-06,0.020257426360997702,245 | |
| 9 | +ar2_cell,1,2024-07,0.02047672934416903,245 | |
| 10 | +ar2_cell,1,2024-08,0.024329005862553873,245 | |
| 11 | +ar2_cell,1,2024-09,0.023781222327857197,245 | |
| 12 | +ar2_cell,1,2024-10,0.02074634790903673,245 | |
| 13 | +ar2_cell,1,2024-11,0.027114861224949462,245 | |
| 14 | +ar2_cell,1,2024-12,0.022864106349221754,245 | |
| 15 | +ar2_cell,1,2025-01,0.02206379604965365,245 | |
| 16 | +ar2_cell,1,2025-02,0.03007774058618446,245 | |
| 17 | +ar2_cell,1,2025-03,0.01886698831358266,245 | |
| 18 | +ar2_cell,1,2025-04,0.023272207175947617,245 | |
| 19 | +ar2_cell,1,2025-05,0.023649167157106788,245 | |
| 20 | +ar2_cell,1,2025-06,0.02329588621186754,245 | |
| 21 | +ar2_cell,1,2025-07,0.015957771203914804,245 | |
| 22 | +ar2_cell,1,2025-08,0.0254712477243458,245 | |
| 23 | +ar2_cell,1,2025-09,0.02018609079675412,245 | |
| 24 | +ar2_cell,1,2025-10,0.020590230305115604,245 | |
| 25 | +ar2_cell,1,2025-11,0.024454663599651576,245 | |
| 26 | +ar2_cell,1,2025-12,0.022489957927967465,245 | |
| 27 | +ar2_cell,1,2026-01,0.020190543288897366,245 | |
| 28 | +ar2_cell,1,2026-02,0.020429636055948254,245 | |
| 29 | +ar2_cell,1,2026-03,0.02107586188535414,245 | |
| 30 | +ar2_cell,1,2026-04,0.0234114925971637,245 | |
| 31 | +ar2_cell,1,2026-05,0.023567144881517305,245 | |
| 32 | +ar2_cell,1,2026-06,0.02611547207956907,245 | |
| 33 | +ar2_cell,1,2026-07,0.026249765611260432,245 | |
| 34 | +ar2_cell,1,2026-08,0.03118042030583197,245 | |
| 35 | +ar2_cell,3,2023-12,0.028669378127765863,245 | |
| 36 | +ar2_cell,3,2024-01,0.028534287131801887,245 | |
| 37 | +ar2_cell,3,2024-02,0.07149989263483045,245 | |
| 38 | +ar2_cell,3,2024-03,0.054998050376735844,245 | |
| 39 | +ar2_cell,3,2024-04,0.04068060567526286,245 | |
| 40 | +ar2_cell,3,2024-05,0.02650420576485517,245 | |
| 41 | +ar2_cell,3,2024-06,0.034686268226638714,245 | |
| 42 | +ar2_cell,3,2024-07,0.026851141797146455,245 | |
| 43 | +ar2_cell,3,2024-08,0.03076723529772837,245 | |
| 44 | +ar2_cell,3,2024-09,0.03827243828010822,245 | |
| 45 | +ar2_cell,3,2024-10,0.034249799376163154,245 | |
| 46 | +ar2_cell,3,2024-11,0.034352635617988715,245 | |
| 47 | +ar2_cell,3,2024-12,0.03223182278440659,245 | |
| 48 | +ar2_cell,3,2025-01,0.034538169907753484,245 | |
| 49 | +ar2_cell,3,2025-02,0.050260378284013585,245 | |
| 50 | +ar2_cell,3,2025-03,0.04375902949001199,245 | |
| 51 | +ar2_cell,3,2025-04,0.03368105050783447,245 | |
| 52 | +ar2_cell,3,2025-05,0.0311983254686394,245 | |
| 53 | +ar2_cell,3,2025-06,0.03672162833367546,245 | |
| 54 | +ar2_cell,3,2025-07,0.03515833774638725,245 | |
| 55 | +ar2_cell,3,2025-08,0.04684051920394907,245 | |
| 56 | +ar2_cell,3,2025-09,0.03773425068984252,245 | |
| 57 | +ar2_cell,3,2025-10,0.035448365939460776,245 | |
| 58 | +ar2_cell,3,2025-11,0.036366265690672715,245 | |
| 59 | +ar2_cell,3,2025-12,0.03245329554911221,245 | |
| 60 | +ar2_cell,3,2026-01,0.026151956771061368,245 | |
| 61 | +ar2_cell,3,2026-02,0.0408687146179968,245 | |
| 62 | +ar2_cell,3,2026-03,0.04247045757840426,245 | |
| 63 | +ar2_cell,3,2026-04,0.030600286194688422,245 | |
| 64 | +ar2_cell,3,2026-05,0.03226061595161471,245 | |
| 65 | +ar2_cell,3,2026-06,0.05660438315389294,245 | |
| 66 | +ar2_cell,6,2024-03,0.04291666661911313,245 | |
| 67 | +ar2_cell,6,2024-04,0.04981834685687604,245 | |
| 68 | +ar2_cell,6,2024-05,0.03372171067237223,245 | |
| 69 | +ar2_cell,6,2024-06,0.036791066388674194,245 | |
| 70 | +ar2_cell,6,2024-07,0.037577798839955906,245 | |
| 71 | +ar2_cell,6,2024-08,0.0435008934799298,245 | |
| 72 | +ar2_cell,6,2024-09,0.039791505733407596,245 | |
| 73 | +ar2_cell,6,2024-10,0.03418665435166175,245 | |
| 74 | +ar2_cell,6,2024-11,0.0412727827482239,245 | |
| 75 | +ar2_cell,6,2024-12,0.051726373119339385,245 | |
| 76 | +ar2_cell,6,2025-01,0.0448629545034825,245 | |
| 77 | +ar2_cell,6,2025-02,0.057128919825520874,245 | |
| 78 | +ar2_cell,6,2025-03,0.03663904073491663,245 | |
| 79 | +ar2_cell,6,2025-04,0.03613293003671592,245 | |
| 80 | +ar2_cell,6,2025-05,0.04162220893273889,245 | |
| 81 | +ar2_cell,6,2025-06,0.05323147061039581,245 | |
| 82 | +ar2_cell,6,2025-07,0.045199366970785006,245 | |
| 83 | +ar2_cell,6,2025-08,0.058052398867755664,245 | |
| 84 | +ar2_cell,6,2025-09,0.048946055008217186,245 | |
| 85 | +ar2_cell,6,2025-10,0.03788621753209918,245 | |
| 86 | +ar2_cell,6,2025-11,0.03825198107026584,245 | |
| 87 | +ar2_cell,6,2025-12,0.04462200324650768,245 | |
| 88 | +ar2_cell,6,2026-01,0.03901537979917971,245 | |
| 89 | +ar2_cell,6,2026-02,0.0418523044301803,245 | |
| 90 | +ar2_cell,6,2026-03,0.04930631983504569,245 | |
| 91 | +ar2_cell,12,2024-09,0.050192949828672125,245 | |
| 92 | +ar2_cell,12,2024-10,0.046792957898758,245 | |
| 93 | +ar2_cell,12,2024-11,0.04688059795052368,245 | |
| 94 | +ar2_cell,12,2024-12,0.04773213337966167,245 | |
| 95 | +ar2_cell,12,2025-01,0.04244144376579857,245 | |
| 96 | +ar2_cell,12,2025-02,0.04519266233162025,245 | |
| 97 | +ar2_cell,12,2025-03,0.0414403922246208,245 | |
| 98 | +ar2_cell,12,2025-04,0.0424906126160737,245 | |
| 99 | +ar2_cell,12,2025-05,0.04353749345481535,245 | |
| 100 | +ar2_cell,12,2025-06,0.04209005619964313,245 | |
| 101 | +ar2_cell,12,2025-07,0.048319749504953276,245 | |
| 102 | +ar2_cell,12,2025-08,0.05597848031781282,245 | |
| 103 | +ar2_cell,12,2025-09,0.06326414683340036,245 | |
| 104 | +bhpf,1,2023-12,0.021940981879162384,245 | |
| 105 | +bhpf,1,2024-01,0.03474119842192404,245 | |
| 106 | +bhpf,1,2024-02,0.03457900109174988,245 | |
| 107 | +bhpf,1,2024-03,0.026827273286682267,245 | |
| 108 | +bhpf,1,2024-04,0.02592810722089367,245 | |
| 109 | +bhpf,1,2024-05,0.02143620557336007,245 | |
| 110 | +bhpf,1,2024-06,0.02481499368144433,245 | |
| 111 | +bhpf,1,2024-07,0.023803619669308506,245 | |
| 112 | +bhpf,1,2024-08,0.024643771498156882,245 | |
| 113 | +bhpf,1,2024-09,0.02312115485660426,245 | |
| 114 | +bhpf,1,2024-10,0.022738191719235624,245 | |
| 115 | +bhpf,1,2024-11,0.034899788011790625,245 | |
| 116 | +bhpf,1,2024-12,0.021116536505430866,245 | |
| 117 | +bhpf,1,2025-01,0.02679417192708597,245 | |
| 118 | +bhpf,1,2025-02,0.024423657763087185,245 | |
| 119 | +bhpf,1,2025-03,0.018357327597179184,245 | |
| 120 | +bhpf,1,2025-04,0.02267985222285055,245 | |
| 121 | +bhpf,1,2025-05,0.019116918132138932,245 | |
| 122 | +bhpf,1,2025-06,0.02407310052103104,245 | |
| 123 | +bhpf,1,2025-07,0.0170266424967616,245 | |
| 124 | +bhpf,1,2025-08,0.02403917155611973,245 | |
| 125 | +bhpf,1,2025-09,0.020331536578651676,245 | |
| 126 | +bhpf,1,2025-10,0.024204191778955515,245 | |
| 127 | +bhpf,1,2025-11,0.025112912759118866,245 | |
| 128 | +bhpf,1,2025-12,0.021426564857606547,245 | |
| 129 | +bhpf,1,2026-01,0.02470453416527809,245 | |
| 130 | +bhpf,1,2026-02,0.023170388789023156,245 | |
| 131 | +bhpf,1,2026-03,0.01597582417897254,245 | |
| 132 | +bhpf,1,2026-04,0.019748830821704234,245 | |
| 133 | +bhpf,1,2026-05,0.021857993257129924,245 | |
| 134 | +bhpf,1,2026-06,0.02637130016696772,245 | |
| 135 | +bhpf,1,2026-07,0.024087855383787164,245 | |
| 136 | +bhpf,1,2026-08,0.026707398473657558,245 | |
| 137 | +bhpf,3,2023-12,0.035859985056200055,245 | |
| 138 | +bhpf,3,2024-01,0.03875281631721575,245 | |
| 139 | +bhpf,3,2024-02,0.035279143601569224,245 | |
| 140 | +bhpf,3,2024-03,0.03422391914891097,245 | |
| 141 | +bhpf,3,2024-04,0.02829158230919948,245 | |
| 142 | +bhpf,3,2024-05,0.026891655572574252,245 | |
| 143 | +bhpf,3,2024-06,0.04062684213260271,245 | |
| 144 | +bhpf,3,2024-07,0.02913094613466365,245 | |
| 145 | +bhpf,3,2024-08,0.02915004998873483,245 | |
| 146 | +bhpf,3,2024-09,0.033989412165921946,245 | |
| 147 | +bhpf,3,2024-10,0.028907443591030896,245 | |
| 148 | +bhpf,3,2024-11,0.03537463613710969,245 | |
| 149 | +bhpf,3,2024-12,0.038367439847611005,245 | |
| 150 | +bhpf,3,2025-01,0.045785815575823584,245 | |
| 151 | +bhpf,3,2025-02,0.03208506494359997,245 | |
| 152 | +bhpf,3,2025-03,0.03271486283315294,245 | |
| 153 | +bhpf,3,2025-04,0.04177921637888806,245 | |
| 154 | +bhpf,3,2025-05,0.03539217968221933,245 | |
| 155 | +bhpf,3,2025-06,0.03817753238415325,245 | |
| 156 | +bhpf,3,2025-07,0.03296131833714059,245 | |
| 157 | +bhpf,3,2025-08,0.04169865179579954,245 | |
| 158 | +bhpf,3,2025-09,0.03769459646634726,245 | |
| 159 | +bhpf,3,2025-10,0.034152492074689816,245 | |
| 160 | +bhpf,3,2025-11,0.03674241532243538,245 | |
| 161 | +bhpf,3,2025-12,0.030107075065859565,245 | |
| 162 | +bhpf,3,2026-01,0.04206689616205638,245 | |
| 163 | +bhpf,3,2026-02,0.03630631408153034,245 | |
| 164 | +bhpf,3,2026-03,0.02999584848924277,245 | |
| 165 | +bhpf,3,2026-04,0.03455252570414071,245 | |
| 166 | +bhpf,3,2026-05,0.0404694575384578,245 | |
| 167 | +bhpf,3,2026-06,0.049791774432256304,245 | |
| 168 | +bhpf,6,2024-03,0.04668789050553218,245 | |
| 169 | +bhpf,6,2024-04,0.05073716806547605,245 | |
| 170 | +bhpf,6,2024-05,0.06143996615483432,245 | |
| 171 | +bhpf,6,2024-06,0.04039149777085862,245 | |
| 172 | +bhpf,6,2024-07,0.04041099345079485,245 | |
| 173 | +bhpf,6,2024-08,0.04379734429540287,245 | |
| 174 | +bhpf,6,2024-09,0.04084135342306623,245 | |
| 175 | +bhpf,6,2024-10,0.03679617530770545,245 | |
| 176 | +bhpf,6,2024-11,0.040225916994290074,245 | |
| 177 | +bhpf,6,2024-12,0.03539369863751296,245 | |
| 178 | +bhpf,6,2025-01,0.04127697042002389,245 | |
| 179 | +bhpf,6,2025-02,0.03860613171172813,245 | |
| 180 | +bhpf,6,2025-03,0.043002652321546916,245 | |
| 181 | +bhpf,6,2025-04,0.0520082980412621,245 | |
| 182 | +bhpf,6,2025-05,0.05352659191850097,245 | |
| 183 | +bhpf,6,2025-06,0.057265076882477256,245 | |
| 184 | +bhpf,6,2025-07,0.049906659766311035,245 | |
| 185 | +bhpf,6,2025-08,0.06712974865512429,245 | |
| 186 | +bhpf,6,2025-09,0.07253635232208719,245 | |
| 187 | +bhpf,6,2025-10,0.05601647187731354,245 | |
| 188 | +bhpf,6,2025-11,0.0526267473885619,245 | |
| 189 | +bhpf,6,2025-12,0.03706892312920441,245 | |
| 190 | +bhpf,6,2026-01,0.038981598780269515,245 | |
| 191 | +bhpf,6,2026-02,0.04545859966565142,245 | |
| 192 | +bhpf,6,2026-03,0.04301507310877431,245 | |
| 193 | +bhpf,12,2024-09,0.05665428001567803,245 | |
| 194 | +bhpf,12,2024-10,0.05673354422325418,245 | |
| 195 | +bhpf,12,2024-11,0.05878442644044428,245 | |
| 196 | +bhpf,12,2024-12,0.060789669542238516,245 | |
| 197 | +bhpf,12,2025-01,0.06601619414333783,245 | |
| 198 | +bhpf,12,2025-02,0.06849899443973899,245 | |
| 199 | +bhpf,12,2025-03,0.10122115624463994,245 | |
| 200 | +bhpf,12,2025-04,0.09940110158666667,245 | |
| 201 | +bhpf,12,2025-05,0.10698509078117065,245 | |
| 202 | +bhpf,12,2025-06,0.07956663963138001,245 | |
| 203 | +bhpf,12,2025-07,0.08915038693324809,245 | |
| 204 | +bhpf,12,2025-08,0.10369046622004557,245 | |
| 205 | +bhpf,12,2025-09,0.1042304832904277,245 | |
| 206 | +dsgfn,1,2023-12,0.020547377566828343,245 | |
| 207 | +dsgfn,1,2024-01,0.04222133406145138,245 | |
| 208 | +dsgfn,1,2024-02,0.025319151418456646,245 | |
| 209 | +dsgfn,1,2024-03,0.02693329776880541,245 | |
| 210 | +dsgfn,1,2024-04,0.03416306930608515,245 | |
| 211 | +dsgfn,1,2024-05,0.026151096207247877,245 | |
| 212 | +dsgfn,1,2024-06,0.01633342643503843,245 | |
| 213 | +dsgfn,1,2024-07,0.03355084521232003,245 | |
| 214 | +dsgfn,1,2024-08,0.02808967366244631,245 | |
| 215 | +dsgfn,1,2024-09,0.0201196590185396,245 | |
| 216 | +dsgfn,1,2024-10,0.02672693814831764,245 | |
| 217 | +dsgfn,1,2024-11,0.03386833381417692,245 | |
| 218 | +dsgfn,1,2024-12,0.030208848385360677,245 | |
| 219 | +dsgfn,1,2025-01,0.02560801889693718,245 | |
| 220 | +dsgfn,1,2025-02,0.020765977365994576,245 | |
| 221 | +dsgfn,1,2025-03,0.018423305538360985,245 | |
| 222 | +dsgfn,1,2025-04,0.024642919064007833,245 | |
| 223 | +dsgfn,1,2025-05,0.019637238783334475,245 | |
| 224 | +dsgfn,1,2025-06,0.026876766487893704,245 | |
| 225 | +dsgfn,1,2025-07,0.017646952225297774,245 | |
| 226 | +dsgfn,1,2025-08,0.02799220825031166,245 | |
| 227 | +dsgfn,1,2025-09,0.0312302411006753,245 | |
| 228 | +dsgfn,1,2025-10,0.03467366372648374,245 | |
| 229 | +dsgfn,1,2025-11,0.02315335441861658,245 | |
| 230 | +dsgfn,1,2025-12,0.024403169981456713,245 | |
| 231 | +dsgfn,1,2026-01,0.022928842499886627,245 | |
| 232 | +dsgfn,1,2026-02,0.028015160943672242,245 | |
| 233 | +dsgfn,1,2026-03,0.018768694732476283,245 | |
| 234 | +dsgfn,1,2026-04,0.02039395698887238,245 | |
| 235 | +dsgfn,1,2026-05,0.023166219425279317,245 | |
| 236 | +dsgfn,1,2026-06,0.02058153807013798,245 | |
| 237 | +dsgfn,1,2026-07,0.018853742436357308,245 | |
| 238 | +dsgfn,1,2026-08,0.02308043328050278,245 | |
| 239 | +dsgfn,3,2023-12,0.027729231741380242,245 | |
| 240 | +dsgfn,3,2024-01,0.02830547936355833,245 | |
| 241 | +dsgfn,3,2024-02,0.044753084308363195,245 | |
| 242 | +dsgfn,3,2024-03,0.03303144811971905,245 | |
| 243 | +dsgfn,3,2024-04,0.03958822545760916,245 | |
| 244 | +dsgfn,3,2024-05,0.04728440673525186,245 | |
| 245 | +dsgfn,3,2024-06,0.033408338585375646,245 | |
| 246 | +dsgfn,3,2024-07,0.046561962955112474,245 | |
| 247 | +dsgfn,3,2024-08,0.04144033770282012,245 | |
| 248 | +dsgfn,3,2024-09,0.04625329772270488,245 | |
| 249 | +dsgfn,3,2024-10,0.03528891608186043,245 | |
| 250 | +dsgfn,3,2024-11,0.03905535858439201,245 | |
| 251 | +dsgfn,3,2024-12,0.03477717199099612,245 | |
| 252 | +dsgfn,3,2025-01,0.030546644088418,245 | |
| 253 | +dsgfn,3,2025-02,0.03297355965372179,245 | |
| 254 | +dsgfn,3,2025-03,0.029036935950673484,245 | |
| 255 | +dsgfn,3,2025-04,0.03626020585132652,245 | |
| 256 | +dsgfn,3,2025-05,0.03036392842919366,245 | |
| 257 | +dsgfn,3,2025-06,0.028356178959111314,245 | |
| 258 | +dsgfn,3,2025-07,0.03225566608311744,245 | |
| 259 | +dsgfn,3,2025-08,0.03775316743574977,245 | |
| 260 | +dsgfn,3,2025-09,0.042242355069748265,245 | |
| 261 | +dsgfn,3,2025-10,0.0525276178135209,245 | |
| 262 | +dsgfn,3,2025-11,0.055625496633514515,245 | |
| 263 | +dsgfn,3,2025-12,0.04269113306696153,245 | |
| 264 | +dsgfn,3,2026-01,0.03291139519321035,245 | |
| 265 | +dsgfn,3,2026-02,0.036795108267388875,245 | |
| 266 | +dsgfn,3,2026-03,0.03453149444147497,245 | |
| 267 | +dsgfn,3,2026-04,0.03171858472788327,245 | |
| 268 | +dsgfn,3,2026-05,0.02867133466200863,245 | |
| 269 | +dsgfn,3,2026-06,0.030110394728180768,245 | |
| 270 | +dsgfn,6,2024-03,0.03801480300889081,245 | |
| 271 | +dsgfn,6,2024-04,0.035539272694981056,245 | |
| 272 | +dsgfn,6,2024-05,0.043396702406783956,245 | |
| 273 | +dsgfn,6,2024-06,0.04639631542049569,245 | |
| 274 | +dsgfn,6,2024-07,0.04192642433901412,245 | |
| 275 | +dsgfn,6,2024-08,0.05147136265990513,245 | |
| 276 | +dsgfn,6,2024-09,0.04499667207659832,245 | |
| 277 | +dsgfn,6,2024-10,0.040326809626244915,245 | |
| 278 | +dsgfn,6,2024-11,0.05705068025207328,245 | |
| 279 | +dsgfn,6,2024-12,0.0357764060613719,245 | |
| 280 | +dsgfn,6,2025-01,0.036995725561221694,245 | |
| 281 | +dsgfn,6,2025-02,0.03854994151730326,245 | |
| 282 | +dsgfn,6,2025-03,0.052165769371867586,245 | |
| 283 | +dsgfn,6,2025-04,0.059993915372259045,245 | |
| 284 | +dsgfn,6,2025-05,0.06394085414528826,245 | |
| 285 | +dsgfn,6,2025-06,0.04984313899814544,245 | |
| 286 | +dsgfn,6,2025-07,0.043774020827388044,245 | |
| 287 | +dsgfn,6,2025-08,0.05837598115459472,245 | |
| 288 | +dsgfn,6,2025-09,0.06776742610909699,245 | |
| 289 | +dsgfn,6,2025-10,0.06086749837893134,245 | |
| 290 | +dsgfn,6,2025-11,0.056253708784050144,245 | |
| 291 | +dsgfn,6,2025-12,0.04214856016154818,245 | |
| 292 | +dsgfn,6,2026-01,0.04655152585689814,245 | |
| 293 | +dsgfn,6,2026-02,0.047333401983724384,245 | |
| 294 | +dsgfn,6,2026-03,0.03691637738178803,245 | |
| 295 | +dsgfn,12,2024-09,0.045973317741947115,245 | |
| 296 | +dsgfn,12,2024-10,0.058381958233299426,245 | |
| 297 | +dsgfn,12,2024-11,0.07569722137966378,245 | |
| 298 | +dsgfn,12,2024-12,0.058346810911496565,245 | |
| 299 | +dsgfn,12,2025-01,0.0738541632092063,245 | |
| 300 | +dsgfn,12,2025-02,0.07142626739921315,245 | |
| 301 | +dsgfn,12,2025-03,0.11608688005640752,245 | |
| 302 | +dsgfn,12,2025-04,0.11435680977511904,245 | |
| 303 | +dsgfn,12,2025-05,0.1228623832041074,245 | |
| 304 | +dsgfn,12,2025-06,0.07661438789364243,245 | |
| 305 | +dsgfn,12,2025-07,0.0855926132290387,245 | |
| 306 | +dsgfn,12,2025-08,0.09923164052111709,245 | |
| 307 | +dsgfn,12,2025-09,0.08458014968915555,245 | |
| 308 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2023-12,0.019688002423057,245 | |
| 309 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2024-01,0.024656771704544254,245 | |
| 310 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2024-02,0.03146366377874933,245 | |
| 311 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2024-03,0.018779809998396624,245 | |
| 312 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2024-04,0.021384656266933828,245 | |
| 313 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2024-05,0.01634914064999005,245 | |
| 314 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2024-06,0.018471529673660333,245 | |
| 315 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2024-07,0.018167890414974432,245 | |
| 316 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2024-08,0.021722081459095693,245 | |
| 317 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2024-09,0.030408656385681656,245 | |
| 318 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2024-10,0.019581281370339567,245 | |
| 319 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2024-11,0.022074064626451034,245 | |
| 320 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2024-12,0.03209782104477741,245 | |
| 321 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2025-01,0.03043418264553939,245 | |
| 322 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2025-02,0.022177950796448378,245 | |
| 323 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2025-03,0.018701871410980547,245 | |
| 324 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2025-04,0.02213987873339424,245 | |
| 325 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2025-05,0.018849969518179917,245 | |
| 326 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2025-06,0.019586657389554937,245 | |
| 327 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2025-07,0.01723468600078406,245 | |
| 328 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2025-08,0.022046355304252998,245 | |
| 329 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2025-09,0.01729093443031474,245 | |
| 330 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2025-10,0.01711750896529325,245 | |
| 331 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2025-11,0.022506010277828517,245 | |
| 332 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2025-12,0.021685959240042497,245 | |
| 333 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2026-01,0.019741495673907643,245 | |
| 334 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2026-02,0.018653187558616276,245 | |
| 335 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2026-03,0.01741854080319506,245 | |
| 336 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2026-04,0.02012176456533946,245 | |
| 337 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2026-05,0.023253701867586744,245 | |
| 338 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2026-06,0.01905390697871599,245 | |
| 339 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2026-07,0.022187345626181458,245 | |
| 340 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2026-08,0.025663846373290364,245 | |
| 341 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2023-12,0.03167031245660157,245 | |
| 342 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2024-01,0.02540810361478654,245 | |
| 343 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2024-02,0.05176634533254711,245 | |
| 344 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2024-03,0.03636494158424383,245 | |
| 345 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2024-04,0.0327157476756074,245 | |
| 346 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2024-05,0.0260879605099079,245 | |
| 347 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2024-06,0.029912986428482273,245 | |
| 348 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2024-07,0.0276400728424205,245 | |
| 349 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2024-08,0.030338226913211877,245 | |
| 350 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2024-09,0.033607015770302916,245 | |
| 351 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2024-10,0.03578395936988246,245 | |
| 352 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2024-11,0.030369743802301077,245 | |
| 353 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2024-12,0.04215981868195425,245 | |
| 354 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2025-01,0.02857759605648655,245 | |
| 355 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2025-02,0.030845374770113856,245 | |
| 356 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2025-03,0.02890466360606723,245 | |
| 357 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2025-04,0.02857053934258095,245 | |
| 358 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2025-05,0.03235327069961339,245 | |
| 359 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2025-06,0.0297138353700063,245 | |
| 360 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2025-07,0.030423422239183245,245 | |
| 361 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2025-08,0.03735743258407965,245 | |
| 362 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2025-09,0.028009413634947144,245 | |
| 363 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2025-10,0.029755256584608092,245 | |
| 364 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2025-11,0.03364720135003084,245 | |
| 365 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2025-12,0.03051876680108643,245 | |
| 366 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2026-01,0.025497749051726346,245 | |
| 367 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2026-02,0.02933763001823477,245 | |
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| 900 | +qrefa,6,2025-09,0.07008917295729244,245 | |
| 901 | +qrefa,6,2025-10,0.05784926656291389,245 | |
| 902 | +qrefa,6,2025-11,0.05325466010571232,245 | |
| 903 | +qrefa,6,2025-12,0.03628753922331905,245 | |
| 904 | +qrefa,6,2026-01,0.03657361064060887,245 | |
| 905 | +qrefa,6,2026-02,0.037106847306142325,245 | |
| 906 | +qrefa,6,2026-03,0.03963779992584501,245 | |
| 907 | +qrefa,12,2024-09,0.05078963467507474,245 | |
| 908 | +qrefa,12,2024-10,0.05170709061940044,245 | |
| 909 | +qrefa,12,2024-11,0.05540028092097566,245 | |
| 910 | +qrefa,12,2024-12,0.05832148266767168,245 | |
| 911 | +qrefa,12,2025-01,0.06562810420298205,245 | |
| 912 | +qrefa,12,2025-02,0.06505463450394113,245 | |
| 913 | +qrefa,12,2025-03,0.100526526478321,245 | |
| 914 | +qrefa,12,2025-04,0.09645214674707585,245 | |
| 915 | +qrefa,12,2025-05,0.10037355638185332,245 | |
| 916 | +qrefa,12,2025-06,0.0669392720279462,245 | |
| 917 | +qrefa,12,2025-07,0.07810337503147693,245 | |
| 918 | +qrefa,12,2025-08,0.09458174460591103,245 | |
| 919 | +qrefa,12,2025-09,0.1059401753939132,245 | |
| 920 | +raref,1,2023-12,0.021899676050996308,245 | |
| 921 | +raref,1,2024-01,0.03480253404983244,245 | |
| 922 | +raref,1,2024-02,0.03667368636887359,245 | |
| 923 | +raref,1,2024-03,0.026862676793701665,245 | |
| 924 | +raref,1,2024-04,0.028808983491914738,245 | |
| 925 | +raref,1,2024-05,0.020013016260454566,245 | |
| 926 | +raref,1,2024-06,0.023061476070679696,245 | |
| 927 | +raref,1,2024-07,0.023732214741034815,245 | |
| 928 | +raref,1,2024-08,0.023420466097675473,245 | |
| 929 | +raref,1,2024-09,0.022807072620575113,245 | |
| 930 | +raref,1,2024-10,0.021591981996587413,245 | |
| 931 | +raref,1,2024-11,0.033361922891405986,245 | |
| 932 | +raref,1,2024-12,0.017084745191769554,245 | |
| 933 | +raref,1,2025-01,0.024502645986833518,245 | |
| 934 | +raref,1,2025-02,0.02230726582854571,245 | |
| 935 | +raref,1,2025-03,0.016244215742752928,245 | |
| 936 | +raref,1,2025-04,0.025795216537696366,245 | |
| 937 | +raref,1,2025-05,0.02005307960143389,245 | |
| 938 | +raref,1,2025-06,0.024282438758129878,245 | |
| 939 | +raref,1,2025-07,0.018312294122577105,245 | |
| 940 | +raref,1,2025-08,0.021289508049390917,245 | |
| 941 | +raref,1,2025-09,0.02231504968986699,245 | |
| 942 | +raref,1,2025-10,0.027252650953801874,245 | |
| 943 | +raref,1,2025-11,0.021813365625798723,245 | |
| 944 | +raref,1,2025-12,0.02198786275064947,245 | |
| 945 | +raref,1,2026-01,0.022505333810943336,245 | |
| 946 | +raref,1,2026-02,0.02230972018481538,245 | |
| 947 | +raref,1,2026-03,0.015959472055352336,245 | |
| 948 | +raref,1,2026-04,0.02401811609973121,245 | |
| 949 | +raref,1,2026-05,0.02734000484137642,245 | |
| 950 | +raref,1,2026-06,0.026124279102741385,245 | |
| 951 | +raref,1,2026-07,0.02313939771432108,245 | |
| 952 | +raref,1,2026-08,0.02646432801761121,245 | |
| 953 | +raref,3,2023-12,0.032924285476187275,245 | |
| 954 | +raref,3,2024-01,0.03476602293177299,245 | |
| 955 | +raref,3,2024-02,0.03553576146327189,245 | |
| 956 | +raref,3,2024-03,0.029717163409465598,245 | |
| 957 | +raref,3,2024-04,0.03155971723749734,245 | |
| 958 | +raref,3,2024-05,0.02843303759012783,245 | |
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| 962 | +raref,3,2024-09,0.032794570598386225,245 | |
| 963 | +raref,3,2024-10,0.02817478369988225,245 | |
| 964 | +raref,3,2024-11,0.036051628893470335,245 | |
| 965 | +raref,3,2024-12,0.04025795901022001,245 | |
| 966 | +raref,3,2025-01,0.04095625640248235,245 | |
| 967 | +raref,3,2025-02,0.030826081571597077,245 | |
| 968 | +raref,3,2025-03,0.031038737151267818,245 | |
| 969 | +raref,3,2025-04,0.04183556681632761,245 | |
| 970 | +raref,3,2025-05,0.03540447744332033,245 | |
| 971 | +raref,3,2025-06,0.037080304613197654,245 | |
| 972 | +raref,3,2025-07,0.034500251960894075,245 | |
| 973 | +raref,3,2025-08,0.041385451261106,245 | |
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| 980 | +raref,3,2026-03,0.030579897618193925,245 | |
| 981 | +raref,3,2026-04,0.05053769121979049,245 | |
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| 983 | +raref,3,2026-06,0.05029498549793425,245 | |
| 984 | +raref,6,2024-03,0.05128505473530172,245 | |
| 985 | +raref,6,2024-04,0.05437776123675471,245 | |
| 986 | +raref,6,2024-05,0.06997212480455803,245 | |
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| 988 | +raref,6,2024-07,0.0395824204304501,245 | |
| 989 | +raref,6,2024-08,0.04967640195764848,245 | |
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| 991 | +raref,6,2024-10,0.04145147658351498,245 | |
| 992 | +raref,6,2024-11,0.047280852398557074,245 | |
| 993 | +raref,6,2024-12,0.03324863440550011,245 | |
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| 1080 | +ridge_panel,3,2026-01,0.042281381520434744,245 | |
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| 1084 | +ridge_panel,3,2026-05,0.039391695541881475,245 | |
| 1085 | +ridge_panel,3,2026-06,0.048931964152692145,245 | |
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| 1088 | +ridge_panel,6,2024-05,0.06942812984028682,245 | |
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| 1093 | +ridge_panel,6,2024-10,0.03887948535929591,245 | |
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| 1095 | +ridge_panel,6,2024-12,0.03309390991456753,245 | |
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| 1097 | +ridge_panel,6,2025-02,0.03751190253128126,245 | |
| 1098 | +ridge_panel,6,2025-03,0.044062929218104695,245 | |
| 1099 | +ridge_panel,6,2025-04,0.0531496459031732,245 | |
| 1100 | +ridge_panel,6,2025-05,0.054124607099263006,245 | |
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| 1110 | +ridge_panel,6,2026-03,0.041462516950083426,245 | |
| 1111 | +ridge_panel,12,2024-09,0.050872428644086136,245 | |
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| 1118 | +ridge_panel,12,2025-04,0.11000214995068364,245 | |
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| 1122 | +ridge_panel,12,2025-08,0.12159477408144259,245 | |
| 1123 | +ridge_panel,12,2025-09,0.11476223223801515,245 | |
| 1124 | +tft_lite,1,2023-12,0.019721600954876666,245 | |
| 1125 | +tft_lite,1,2024-01,0.03092800841775317,245 | |
| 1126 | +tft_lite,1,2024-02,0.030546325981323414,245 | |
| 1127 | +tft_lite,1,2024-03,0.039240304864742524,245 | |
| 1128 | +tft_lite,1,2024-04,0.04788677692575177,245 | |
| 1129 | +tft_lite,1,2024-05,0.053886330391326884,245 | |
| 1130 | +tft_lite,1,2024-06,0.02271251730869208,245 | |
| 1131 | +tft_lite,1,2024-07,0.03018638868765884,245 | |
| 1132 | +tft_lite,1,2024-08,0.027913064976494723,245 | |
| 1133 | +tft_lite,1,2024-09,0.024149053363881186,245 | |
| 1134 | +tft_lite,1,2024-10,0.02076365076314203,245 | |
| 1135 | +tft_lite,1,2024-11,0.023777071112646465,245 | |
| 1136 | +tft_lite,1,2024-12,0.03461624118247587,245 | |
| 1137 | +tft_lite,1,2025-01,0.03269134895742812,245 | |
| 1138 | +tft_lite,1,2025-02,0.031118505365808194,245 | |
| 1139 | +tft_lite,1,2025-03,0.02398079841573953,245 | |
| 1140 | +tft_lite,1,2025-04,0.023305363760982495,245 | |
| 1141 | +tft_lite,1,2025-05,0.021020352400495754,245 | |
| 1142 | +tft_lite,1,2025-06,0.028634843103398658,245 | |
| 1143 | +tft_lite,1,2025-07,0.01720164794169442,245 | |
| 1144 | +tft_lite,1,2025-08,0.023459087263269087,245 | |
| 1145 | +tft_lite,1,2025-09,0.02302359617734853,245 | |
| 1146 | +tft_lite,1,2025-10,0.021113309124859495,245 | |
| 1147 | +tft_lite,1,2025-11,0.025219914453140934,245 | |
| 1148 | +tft_lite,1,2025-12,0.021803733659511246,245 | |
| 1149 | +tft_lite,1,2026-01,0.03174852911005153,245 | |
| 1150 | +tft_lite,1,2026-02,0.029205161229059935,245 | |
| 1151 | +tft_lite,1,2026-03,0.020622719848394207,245 | |
| 1152 | +tft_lite,1,2026-04,0.02172462098634768,245 | |
| 1153 | +tft_lite,1,2026-05,0.024819222469797106,245 | |
| 1154 | +tft_lite,1,2026-06,0.02250299514407869,245 | |
| 1155 | +tft_lite,1,2026-07,0.020974311282795626,245 | |
| 1156 | +tft_lite,1,2026-08,0.026108208131523057,245 | |
| 1157 | +tft_lite,3,2023-12,0.030699696334136394,245 | |
| 1158 | +tft_lite,3,2024-01,0.02898857127160021,245 | |
| 1159 | +tft_lite,3,2024-02,0.04934864992643652,245 | |
| 1160 | +tft_lite,3,2024-03,0.08723278019935429,245 | |
| 1161 | +tft_lite,3,2024-04,0.07736138469590602,245 | |
| 1162 | +tft_lite,3,2024-05,0.10862958626121223,245 | |
| 1163 | +tft_lite,3,2024-06,0.031967758099165425,245 | |
| 1164 | +tft_lite,3,2024-07,0.026141284999856206,245 | |
| 1165 | +tft_lite,3,2024-08,0.032904383204391464,245 | |
| 1166 | +tft_lite,3,2024-09,0.0363450423028714,245 | |
| 1167 | +tft_lite,3,2024-10,0.03235789264816185,245 | |
| 1168 | +tft_lite,3,2024-11,0.0408502756287665,245 | |
| 1169 | +tft_lite,3,2024-12,0.054589002737104896,245 | |
| 1170 | +tft_lite,3,2025-01,0.04068045224865689,245 | |
| 1171 | +tft_lite,3,2025-02,0.035146292890026826,245 | |
| 1172 | +tft_lite,3,2025-03,0.03137090027160281,245 | |
| 1173 | +tft_lite,3,2025-04,0.03727795163345503,245 | |
| 1174 | +tft_lite,3,2025-05,0.034312468669678776,245 | |
| 1175 | +tft_lite,3,2025-06,0.03461472966967147,245 | |
| 1176 | +tft_lite,3,2025-07,0.03465220490583192,245 | |
| 1177 | +tft_lite,3,2025-08,0.04347620899854225,245 | |
| 1178 | +tft_lite,3,2025-09,0.0400188729980183,245 | |
| 1179 | +tft_lite,3,2025-10,0.032744880412412414,245 | |
| 1180 | +tft_lite,3,2025-11,0.03631855772002431,245 | |
| 1181 | +tft_lite,3,2025-12,0.03822171866637053,245 | |
| 1182 | +tft_lite,3,2026-01,0.04182508096264814,245 | |
| 1183 | +tft_lite,3,2026-02,0.03900848234513619,245 | |
| 1184 | +tft_lite,3,2026-03,0.03216610970554411,245 | |
| 1185 | +tft_lite,3,2026-04,0.02906945589892061,245 | |
| 1186 | +tft_lite,3,2026-05,0.027513503086526763,245 | |
| 1187 | +tft_lite,3,2026-06,0.0350264476657545,245 | |
| 1188 | +tft_lite,6,2024-03,0.04020333770400522,245 | |
| 1189 | +tft_lite,6,2024-04,0.043106688977698246,245 | |
| 1190 | +tft_lite,6,2024-05,0.0857224922262732,245 | |
| 1191 | +tft_lite,6,2024-06,0.04588956223903978,245 | |
| 1192 | +tft_lite,6,2024-07,0.03741948669050929,245 | |
| 1193 | +tft_lite,6,2024-08,0.03871906466805445,245 | |
| 1194 | +tft_lite,6,2024-09,0.06969443569590836,245 | |
| 1195 | +tft_lite,6,2024-10,0.07307876019324322,245 | |
| 1196 | +tft_lite,6,2024-11,0.08388190330160339,245 | |
| 1197 | +tft_lite,6,2024-12,0.034994830595785203,245 | |
| 1198 | +tft_lite,6,2025-01,0.04518691593216601,245 | |
| 1199 | +tft_lite,6,2025-02,0.04271263261857893,245 | |
| 1200 | +tft_lite,6,2025-03,0.05752178249156926,245 | |
| 1201 | +tft_lite,6,2025-04,0.06070898780990156,245 | |
| 1202 | +tft_lite,6,2025-05,0.05602149608296598,245 | |
| 1203 | +tft_lite,6,2025-06,0.06100960212693658,245 | |
| 1204 | +tft_lite,6,2025-07,0.046063270849875756,245 | |
| 1205 | +tft_lite,6,2025-08,0.06059043894455891,245 | |
| 1206 | +tft_lite,6,2025-09,0.06230782611500081,245 | |
| 1207 | +tft_lite,6,2025-10,0.04495454384479627,245 | |
| 1208 | +tft_lite,6,2025-11,0.04554968608442595,245 | |
| 1209 | +tft_lite,6,2025-12,0.04236251957959577,245 | |
| 1210 | +tft_lite,6,2026-01,0.037738122028000746,245 | |
| 1211 | +tft_lite,6,2026-02,0.038804308373438214,245 | |
| 1212 | +tft_lite,6,2026-03,0.044131646260978936,245 | |
| 1213 | +tft_lite,12,2024-09,0.05560201334112783,245 | |
| 1214 | +tft_lite,12,2024-10,0.06348072354850313,245 | |
| 1215 | +tft_lite,12,2024-11,0.07371869039905461,245 | |
| 1216 | +tft_lite,12,2024-12,0.05171534252719428,245 | |
| 1217 | +tft_lite,12,2025-01,0.04649281499928854,245 | |
| 1218 | +tft_lite,12,2025-02,0.044983569125616234,245 | |
| 1219 | +tft_lite,12,2025-03,0.10458765494723107,245 | |
| 1220 | +tft_lite,12,2025-04,0.09292713676795472,245 | |
| 1221 | +tft_lite,12,2025-05,0.08705076830645188,245 | |
| 1222 | +tft_lite,12,2025-06,0.05901349994137359,245 | |
| 1223 | +tft_lite,12,2025-07,0.06361482001392806,245 | |
| 1224 | +tft_lite,12,2025-08,0.07803725668967466,245 | |
| 1225 | +tft_lite,12,2025-09,0.08016674542911036,245 | |
added
results/extra/error_by_regime_b.csv
+121 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,h,regime,mae,n,origins,mae_nc,mase | |
| 2 | +lightgbm_panel,1,falling,0.024656771704544254,245,1,0.03358159931818455,0.7342345869510905 | |
| 3 | +tft_lite,1,falling,0.03092800841775317,245,1,0.03358159931818455,0.9209808063252528 | |
| 4 | +momentum,1,falling,0.03285927324109651,245,1,0.03358159931818455,0.9784904205948018 | |
| 5 | +qanss,1,falling,0.03328320120781117,245,1,0.03358159931818455,0.9911142376649167 | |
| 6 | +no_change,1,falling,0.03358159931818455,245,1,0.03358159931818455,1.0 | |
| 7 | +bhpf,1,falling,0.03474119842192404,245,1,0.03358159931818455,1.034530788505703 | |
| 8 | +raref,1,falling,0.03480253404983244,245,1,0.03358159931818455,1.0363572538663084 | |
| 9 | +ridge_panel,1,falling,0.03511272131049051,245,1,0.03358159931818455,1.0455940760235576 | |
| 10 | +qrefa,1,falling,0.035955394090373634,245,1,0.03358159931818455,1.0706873651161595 | |
| 11 | +ar2_cell,1,falling,0.03603963369061085,245,1,0.03358159931818455,1.0731958698314663 | |
| 12 | +mean_growth,1,falling,0.03804824282492823,245,1,0.03358159931818455,1.133008659427515 | |
| 13 | +dsgfn,1,falling,0.04222133406145138,245,1,0.03358159931818455,1.2572758569776747 | |
| 14 | +lightgbm_panel,1,flat,0.021209815581500566,6370,26,0.022535621825909045,0.9411684197289729 | |
| 15 | +qanss,1,flat,0.02204730639749143,6370,26,0.022535621825909045,0.9783313976339362 | |
| 16 | +momentum,1,flat,0.022519691605172275,6370,26,0.022535621825909045,0.999293109333311 | |
| 17 | +no_change,1,flat,0.022535621825909045,6370,26,0.022535621825909045,1.0 | |
| 18 | +ar2_cell,1,flat,0.022638026061711992,6370,26,0.022535621825909045,1.0045441051768633 | |
| 19 | +qrefa,1,flat,0.022706952356216663,6370,26,0.022535621825909045,1.007602653773265 | |
| 20 | +raref,1,flat,0.022714485186326586,6370,26,0.022535621825909045,1.0079369170196095 | |
| 21 | +ridge_panel,1,flat,0.022920855102431147,6370,26,0.022535621825909045,1.0170944152106423 | |
| 22 | +mean_growth,1,flat,0.023015505104033454,6370,26,0.022535621825909045,1.0212944325136257 | |
| 23 | +bhpf,1,flat,0.023017366078716916,6370,26,0.022535621825909045,1.0213770117607321 | |
| 24 | +dsgfn,1,flat,0.024346713280506024,6370,26,0.022535621825909045,1.0803657191529004 | |
| 25 | +tft_lite,1,flat,0.02555289066196417,6370,26,0.022535621825909045,1.133888865342344 | |
| 26 | +lightgbm_panel,1,rising,0.022433191188756446,1470,6,0.03267335719793239,0.6865897205744148 | |
| 27 | +qrefa,1,rising,0.02551279734388946,1470,6,0.03267335719793239,0.7808440739448697 | |
| 28 | +qanss,1,rising,0.02552321153141124,1470,6,0.03267335719793239,0.7811628103226067 | |
| 29 | +bhpf,1,rising,0.026268046729047784,1470,6,0.03267335719793239,0.8039592188191196 | |
| 30 | +ridge_panel,1,rising,0.02653643038705791,1470,6,0.03267335719793239,0.8121733627280017 | |
| 31 | +dsgfn,1,rising,0.026639929311170308,1470,6,0.03267335719793239,0.815341048359001 | |
| 32 | +raref,1,rising,0.027126258200924572,1470,6,0.03267335719793239,0.8302256188917481 | |
| 33 | +mean_growth,1,rising,0.02941241645279237,1470,6,0.03267335719793239,0.9001957244434502 | |
| 34 | +ar2_cell,1,rising,0.02956169191657793,1470,6,0.03267335719793239,0.9047644457683285 | |
| 35 | +no_change,1,rising,0.03267335719793239,1470,6,0.03267335719793239,1.0 | |
| 36 | +momentum,1,rising,0.0333559722402465,1470,6,0.03267335719793239,1.0208920998897935 | |
| 37 | +tft_lite,1,rising,0.03355040635461139,1470,6,0.03267335719793239,1.026842945809514 | |
| 38 | +dsgfn,3,falling,0.030110394728180768,245,1,0.04546304561485683,0.6623048306807896 | |
| 39 | +qrefa,3,falling,0.03393100042501999,245,1,0.04546304561485683,0.7463424406817941 | |
| 40 | +tft_lite,3,falling,0.0350264476657545,245,1,0.04546304561485683,0.7704377740656301 | |
| 41 | +lightgbm_panel,3,falling,0.038063125161608855,245,1,0.04546304561485683,0.8372321881834119 | |
| 42 | +momentum,3,falling,0.03869248089352037,245,1,0.04546304561485683,0.8510754255512544 | |
| 43 | +no_change,3,falling,0.04546304561485683,245,1,0.04546304561485683,1.0 | |
| 44 | +ridge_panel,3,falling,0.048931964152692145,245,1,0.04546304561485683,1.0763019391006596 | |
| 45 | +bhpf,3,falling,0.049791774432256304,245,1,0.04546304561485683,1.0952142285862365 | |
| 46 | +raref,3,falling,0.05029498549793425,245,1,0.04546304561485683,1.106282802168854 | |
| 47 | +qanss,3,falling,0.051767526857700336,245,1,0.04546304561485683,1.138672655066982 | |
| 48 | +ar2_cell,3,falling,0.05660438315389294,245,1,0.04546304561485683,1.2450635981016467 | |
| 49 | +mean_growth,3,falling,0.06379584148233332,245,1,0.04546304561485683,1.403246100641474 | |
| 50 | +momentum,3,flat,0.03002238001950596,3185,13,0.03097751876586329,0.969166712364004 | |
| 51 | +no_change,3,flat,0.03097751876586329,3185,13,0.03097751876586329,1.0 | |
| 52 | +lightgbm_panel,3,flat,0.03107451160196714,3185,13,0.03097751876586329,1.003131071821373 | |
| 53 | +qanss,3,flat,0.03246282209439642,3185,13,0.03097751876586329,1.047947782382426 | |
| 54 | +ridge_panel,3,flat,0.03442066952254291,3185,13,0.03097751876586329,1.1111499853394946 | |
| 55 | +tft_lite,3,flat,0.034608122667249254,3185,13,0.03097751876586329,1.1172012493585133 | |
| 56 | +qrefa,3,flat,0.03506004617936253,3185,13,0.03097751876586329,1.1317900069516904 | |
| 57 | +bhpf,3,flat,0.035313522620699034,3185,13,0.03097751876586329,1.1399726003754036 | |
| 58 | +ar2_cell,3,flat,0.0353622693962597,3185,13,0.03097751876586329,1.141546218195769 | |
| 59 | +raref,3,flat,0.03545449228239663,3185,13,0.03097751876586329,1.1445233089961644 | |
| 60 | +mean_growth,3,flat,0.03797299984437391,3185,13,0.03097751876586329,1.225824448090385 | |
| 61 | +dsgfn,3,flat,0.039956925253002804,3185,13,0.03097751876586329,1.2898684867244652 | |
| 62 | +lightgbm_panel,3,rising,0.0316198375845014,4165,17,0.05003598741380172,0.6319419125878889 | |
| 63 | +qrefa,3,rising,0.03357263080860618,4165,17,0.05003598741380172,0.6709696868967084 | |
| 64 | +dsgfn,3,rising,0.03489988455218414,4165,17,0.05003598741380172,0.6974956697378475 | |
| 65 | +ridge_panel,3,rising,0.03493676620431513,4165,17,0.05003598741380172,0.6982327722522034 | |
| 66 | +bhpf,3,rising,0.03520307886881144,4165,17,0.05003598741380172,0.7035551947377212 | |
| 67 | +raref,3,rising,0.03523948207926007,4165,17,0.05003598741380172,0.704282735300628 | |
| 68 | +qanss,3,rising,0.03563536295720812,4165,17,0.05003598741380172,0.712194658266674 | |
| 69 | +ar2_cell,3,rising,0.038182347462657334,4165,17,0.05003598741380172,0.7630977109912149 | |
| 70 | +mean_growth,3,rising,0.04012083997376871,4165,17,0.05003598741380172,0.8018396767503772 | |
| 71 | +tft_lite,3,rising,0.046819328512811204,4165,17,0.05003598741380172,0.9357130923711271 | |
| 72 | +no_change,3,rising,0.05003598741380172,4165,17,0.05003598741380172,1.0 | |
| 73 | +momentum,3,rising,0.05204544102484883,4165,17,0.05003598741380172,1.0401601670099716 | |
| 74 | +no_change,6,falling,0.03757682805414114,245,1,0.03757682805414114,1.0 | |
| 75 | +momentum,6,falling,0.037617485336846085,245,1,0.03757682805414114,1.001081977506094 | |
| 76 | +qanss,6,falling,0.03886405788868796,245,1,0.03757682805414114,1.034255947114327 | |
| 77 | +lightgbm_panel,6,falling,0.05165528938738342,245,1,0.03757682805414114,1.3746580555697212 | |
| 78 | +ar2_cell,6,falling,0.058052398867755664,245,1,0.03757682805414114,1.5448988611841605 | |
| 79 | +dsgfn,6,falling,0.05837598115459472,245,1,0.03757682805414114,1.5535100799483637 | |
| 80 | +raref,6,falling,0.05876483247510286,245,1,0.03757682805414114,1.5638582477061074 | |
| 81 | +mean_growth,6,falling,0.06005558287620146,245,1,0.03757682805414114,1.5982078846482908 | |
| 82 | +tft_lite,6,falling,0.06059043894455891,245,1,0.03757682805414114,1.6124415519388566 | |
| 83 | +qrefa,6,falling,0.06063315321231555,245,1,0.03757682805414114,1.6135782702295836 | |
| 84 | +ridge_panel,6,falling,0.0649990967124605,245,1,0.03757682805414114,1.7297653920870868 | |
| 85 | +bhpf,6,falling,0.06712974865512429,245,1,0.03757682805414114,1.7864666107102747 | |
| 86 | +no_change,6,flat,0.03567419099549375,1470,6,0.03567419099549375,1.0 | |
| 87 | +momentum,6,flat,0.038976361637879924,1470,6,0.03567419099549375,1.092564695939518 | |
| 88 | +lightgbm_panel,6,flat,0.04004966944387611,1470,6,0.03567419099549375,1.1226510910628655 | |
| 89 | +ar2_cell,6,flat,0.042987134203746606,1470,6,0.03567419099549375,1.2049925451477401 | |
| 90 | +qrefa,6,flat,0.04353327583037643,1470,6,0.03567419099549375,1.220301697545865 | |
| 91 | +ridge_panel,6,flat,0.04490257423865217,1470,6,0.03567419099549375,1.2586851442356217 | |
| 92 | +raref,6,flat,0.04611806292639525,1470,6,0.03567419099549375,1.2927570784217848 | |
| 93 | +qanss,6,flat,0.047164662726512104,1470,6,0.03567419099549375,1.3220948088905446 | |
| 94 | +tft_lite,6,flat,0.04752041377623031,1470,6,0.03567419099549375,1.3320670336219518 | |
| 95 | +bhpf,6,flat,0.0475496940140576,1470,6,0.03567419099549375,1.3328878017181642 | |
| 96 | +mean_growth,6,flat,0.04941592905129206,1470,6,0.03567419099549375,1.3852011124102048 | |
| 97 | +dsgfn,6,flat,0.049558686065039444,1470,6,0.03567419099549375,1.3892028012996718 | |
| 98 | +lightgbm_panel,6,rising,0.0396734682500034,4410,18,0.060651993078745074,0.6541164805333759 | |
| 99 | +ar2_cell,6,rising,0.04267100811795142,4410,18,0.060651993078745074,0.7035384321592076 | |
| 100 | +mean_growth,6,rising,0.043994480488633594,4410,18,0.060651993078745074,0.7253591886340014 | |
| 101 | +qrefa,6,rising,0.04428736095698938,4410,18,0.060651993078745074,0.73018805663139 | |
| 102 | +qanss,6,rising,0.04478778283590437,4410,18,0.060651993078745074,0.7384387645391299 | |
| 103 | +bhpf,6,rising,0.04626222154749114,4410,18,0.060651993078745074,0.7627485792169838 | |
| 104 | +raref,6,rising,0.046562655711780594,4410,18,0.060651993078745074,0.7677019888089719 | |
| 105 | +dsgfn,6,rising,0.04670251092253517,4410,18,0.060651993078745074,0.7700078522052992 | |
| 106 | +ridge_panel,6,rising,0.047517037021759245,4410,18,0.060651993078745074,0.7834373548131784 | |
| 107 | +tft_lite,6,rising,0.05292563443516496,4410,18,0.060651993078745074,0.8726116282188962 | |
| 108 | +no_change,6,rising,0.060651993078745074,4410,18,0.060651993078745074,1.0 | |
| 109 | +momentum,6,rising,0.0645579872747506,4410,18,0.060651993078745074,1.0644000963156204 | |
| 110 | +ar2_cell,12,rising,0.0474118212543349,3185,13,0.07523138744350522,0.63021330412042 | |
| 111 | +mean_growth,12,rising,0.051112625070748145,3185,13,0.07523138744350522,0.6794055886465077 | |
| 112 | +lightgbm_panel,12,rising,0.05685686681072919,3185,13,0.07523138744350522,0.7557599127548417 | |
| 113 | +tft_lite,12,rising,0.06933777200280838,3185,13,0.07523138744350522,0.9216601522187449 | |
| 114 | +no_change,12,rising,0.07523138744350522,3185,13,0.07523138744350522,1.0 | |
| 115 | +momentum,12,rising,0.07536892469987537,3185,13,0.07523138744350522,1.0018281898160317 | |
| 116 | +qrefa,12,rising,0.0761398480197341,3185,13,0.07523138744350522,1.0120755525997853 | |
| 117 | +bhpf,12,rising,0.08090172565325157,3185,13,0.07523138744350522,1.0753719744169876 | |
| 118 | +qanss,12,rising,0.08104369779623316,3185,13,0.07523138744350522,1.0772591141841255 | |
| 119 | +dsgfn,12,rising,0.08330804640333955,3185,13,0.07523138744350522,1.1073575702149516 | |
| 120 | +raref,12,rising,0.08756413105792525,3185,13,0.07523138744350522,1.1639308277237512 | |
| 121 | +ridge_panel,12,rising,0.09112859708993361,3185,13,0.07523138744350522,1.2113108662041672 | |
added
results/extra/error_by_year_b.csv
+157 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,157 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,h,year,mae,n,mae_nc,mase | |
| 2 | +momentum,1,2023,0.01875510620294524,245,0.019399220851790355,0.9667968804641106 | |
| 3 | +ar2_cell,1,2023,0.019029691254125517,245,0.019399220851790355,0.9809513175561 | |
| 4 | +mean_growth,1,2023,0.019128884539905824,245,0.019399220851790355,0.9860645788843843 | |
| 5 | +qrefa,1,2023,0.019269343680867225,245,0.019399220851790355,0.9933050315826915 | |
| 6 | +no_change,1,2023,0.019399220851790355,245,0.019399220851790355,1.0 | |
| 7 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2023,0.019688002423057,245,0.019399220851790355,1.014886245868993 | |
| 8 | +tft_lite,1,2023,0.019721600954876666,245,0.019399220851790355,1.0166181985116458 | |
| 9 | +dsgfn,1,2023,0.020547377566828343,245,0.019399220851790355,1.0591857128598041 | |
| 10 | +qanss,1,2023,0.020949606768917033,245,0.019399220851790355,1.0799200096216026 | |
| 11 | +ridge_panel,1,2023,0.02162602557085507,245,0.019399220851790355,1.114788358567463 | |
| 12 | +raref,1,2023,0.021899676050996308,245,0.019399220851790355,1.1288946199597076 | |
| 13 | +bhpf,1,2023,0.021940981879162384,245,0.019399220851790355,1.13102387187563 | |
| 14 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2024,0.022929780614466187,2940,0.026956847113989272,0.8506106265879574 | |
| 15 | +qanss,1,2024,0.025465507935211424,2940,0.026956847113989272,0.9446767950097578 | |
| 16 | +raref,1,2024,0.02601839804787542,2940,0.026956847113989272,0.9651869871077452 | |
| 17 | +qrefa,1,2024,0.026030149385737306,2940,0.026956847113989272,0.9656229185730308 | |
| 18 | +ridge_panel,1,2024,0.02637849511261528,2940,0.026956847113989272,0.9785452653669628 | |
| 19 | +bhpf,1,2024,0.02655415346138175,2940,0.026956847113989272,0.9850615448125406 | |
| 20 | +ar2_cell,1,2024,0.026697723981902538,2940,0.026956847113989272,0.9903874837071631 | |
| 21 | +mean_growth,1,2024,0.026853224718508848,2940,0.026956847113989272,0.9961559897920462 | |
| 22 | +no_change,1,2024,0.026956847113989272,2940,0.026956847113989272,1.0 | |
| 23 | +momentum,1,2024,0.02742700824496941,2940,0.026956847113989272,1.0174412507884183 | |
| 24 | +dsgfn,1,2024,0.02864047278652051,2940,0.026956847113989272,1.0624563275301404 | |
| 25 | +tft_lite,1,2024,0.03221714449799074,2940,0.026956847113989272,1.1951377088632755 | |
| 26 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2025,0.02081433039271779,2940,0.023435383437177982,0.8881583033840128 | |
| 27 | +qanss,1,2025,0.021567640907056,2940,0.023435383437177982,0.9203024548273877 | |
| 28 | +qrefa,1,2025,0.021733023804899436,2940,0.023435383437177982,0.9273594290939607 | |
| 29 | +raref,1,2025,0.022179632803956448,2940,0.023435383437177982,0.9464164673649245 | |
| 30 | +ridge_panel,1,2025,0.02229720149095217,2940,0.023435383437177982,0.9514331843864694 | |
| 31 | +bhpf,1,2025,0.022298837349215568,2940,0.023435383437177982,0.951502987309378 | |
| 32 | +ar2_cell,1,2025,0.022531312254341008,2940,0.023435383437177982,0.9614228124212061 | |
| 33 | +mean_growth,1,2025,0.02303832068262835,2940,0.023435383437177982,0.9830571257511524 | |
| 34 | +no_change,1,2025,0.023435383437177982,2940,0.023435383437177982,1.0 | |
| 35 | +momentum,1,2025,0.023547562679703885,2940,0.023435383437177982,1.0047867466229694 | |
| 36 | +tft_lite,1,2025,0.024381041718639706,2940,0.023435383437177982,1.040351730706549 | |
| 37 | +dsgfn,1,2025,0.02458781798661421,2940,0.023435383437177982,1.0491749816052935 | |
| 38 | +lightgbm_panel,1,2026,0.020761723680854126,1960,0.02393024031420208,0.8675936141156297 | |
| 39 | +qanss,1,2026,0.0217881304818662,1960,0.02393024031420208,0.9104852352416793 | |
| 40 | +dsgfn,1,2026,0.021973573547148115,1960,0.02393024031420208,0.9182345542141203 | |
| 41 | +bhpf,1,2026,0.022828015654565048,1960,0.02393024031420208,0.9539400923198049 | |
| 42 | +ridge_panel,1,2026,0.023067393935297924,1960,0.02393024031420208,0.9639432631024573 | |
| 43 | +qrefa,1,2026,0.023373189680854427,1960,0.02393024031420208,0.9767218955583553 | |
| 44 | +raref,1,2026,0.023482581478361547,1960,0.02393024031420208,0.9812931742446875 | |
| 45 | +momentum,1,2026,0.02350714138975373,1960,0.02393024031420208,0.9823194870217309 | |
| 46 | +no_change,1,2026,0.02393024031420208,1960,0.02393024031420208,1.0 | |
| 47 | +ar2_cell,1,2026,0.02402754208819278,1960,0.02393024031420208,1.00406605920848 | |
| 48 | +mean_growth,1,2026,0.024387305611625013,1960,0.02393024031420208,1.0190999041974382 | |
| 49 | +tft_lite,1,2026,0.024713221025255982,1960,0.02393024031420208,1.032719299964122 | |
| 50 | +dsgfn,3,2023,0.027729231741380242,245,0.03746327381343818,0.7401710773988387 | |
| 51 | +ar2_cell,3,2023,0.028669378127765863,245,0.03746327381343818,0.7652662250110687 | |
| 52 | +qrefa,3,2023,0.02883588293892151,245,0.03746327381343818,0.7697107060776412 | |
| 53 | +tft_lite,3,2023,0.030699696334136394,245,0.03746327381343818,0.8194611204300123 | |
| 54 | +qanss,3,2023,0.03164254997007272,245,0.03746327381343818,0.8446285321365173 | |
| 55 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2023,0.03167031245660157,245,0.03746327381343818,0.8453695908775953 | |
| 56 | +ridge_panel,3,2023,0.03276907119091106,245,0.03746327381343818,0.8746985475454284 | |
| 57 | +raref,3,2023,0.032924285476187275,245,0.03746327381343818,0.8788416527649338 | |
| 58 | +momentum,3,2023,0.0357234528248493,245,0.03746327381343818,0.9535592912340511 | |
| 59 | +bhpf,3,2023,0.035859985056200055,245,0.03746327381343818,0.9572037199625885 | |
| 60 | +mean_growth,3,2023,0.03628818839538027,245,0.03746327381343818,0.9686336697665646 | |
| 61 | +no_change,3,2023,0.03746327381343818,245,0.03746327381343818,1.0 | |
| 62 | +ridge_panel,3,2024,0.03231007581948012,2940,0.04398505126156204,0.734569470599105 | |
| 63 | +raref,3,2024,0.03247168930838793,2940,0.04398505126156204,0.7382437527534387 | |
| 64 | +bhpf,3,2024,0.033248823912262034,2940,0.04398505126156204,0.7559119054913491 | |
| 65 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2024,0.03351291021047068,2940,0.04398505126156204,0.7619159066379713 | |
| 66 | +qrefa,3,2024,0.03390558453505283,2940,0.04398505126156204,0.7708433561536503 | |
| 67 | +qanss,3,2024,0.03482635491060987,2940,0.04398505126156204,0.7917770677021846 | |
| 68 | +ar2_cell,3,2024,0.037802365246972204,2940,0.04398505126156204,0.8594366531978376 | |
| 69 | +dsgfn,3,2024,0.03914566896731361,2940,0.04398505126156204,0.8899766589910173 | |
| 70 | +mean_growth,3,2024,0.04147218036626793,2940,0.04398505126156204,0.9428698882183622 | |
| 71 | +no_change,3,2024,0.04398505126156204,2940,0.04398505126156204,1.0 | |
| 72 | +momentum,3,2024,0.04529206381583636,2940,0.04398505126156204,1.0297149262485117 | |
| 73 | +tft_lite,3,2024,0.050559717664568925,2940,0.04398505126156204,1.1494750196813435 | |
| 74 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2025,0.030723064419900307,2940,0.0393671040474294,0.7804248029747178 | |
| 75 | +qanss,3,2025,0.03404144656337354,2940,0.0393671040474294,0.8647180783824098 | |
| 76 | +qrefa,3,2025,0.03569301263253824,2940,0.0393671040474294,0.9066710263862787 | |
| 77 | +raref,3,2025,0.035845816998700916,2940,0.0393671040474294,0.910552550563891 | |
| 78 | +ridge_panel,3,2025,0.036345302381531205,2940,0.0393671040474294,0.9232404379489654 | |
| 79 | +tft_lite,3,2025,0.0365696032570243,2940,0.0393671040474294,0.9289381106866617 | |
| 80 | +bhpf,3,2025,0.03660760173834244,2940,0.0393671040474294,0.9299033450425431 | |
| 81 | +dsgfn,3,2025,0.037552740752921435,2940,0.0393671040474294,0.9539116900160595 | |
| 82 | +ar2_cell,3,2025,0.03784663473427941,2940,0.0393671040474294,0.9613771612126173 | |
| 83 | +mean_growth,3,2025,0.03814944088616681,2940,0.0393671040474294,0.9690690186457315 | |
| 84 | +no_change,3,2025,0.0393671040474294,2940,0.0393671040474294,1.0 | |
| 85 | +momentum,3,2025,0.03993135853251023,2940,0.0393671040474294,1.014333146893432 | |
| 86 | +lightgbm_panel,3,2026,0.02951116781710869,1470,0.04351557301406221,0.678174864147418 | |
| 87 | +dsgfn,3,2026,0.032456385336691145,1470,0.04351557301406221,0.7458567838737352 | |
| 88 | +qrefa,3,2026,0.03273787925883727,1470,0.04351557301406221,0.7523255926851269 | |
| 89 | +tft_lite,3,2026,0.034101513277421724,1470,0.04351557301406221,0.7836622826132084 | |
| 90 | +qanss,3,2026,0.03692153611658637,1470,0.04351557301406221,0.8484671936792616 | |
| 91 | +ar2_cell,3,2026,0.03815940237794308,1470,0.04351557301406221,0.8769137054822129 | |
| 92 | +bhpf,3,2026,0.03886380273461405,1470,0.04351557301406221,0.8931010220652519 | |
| 93 | +ridge_panel,3,2026,0.03894868063601005,1470,0.04351557301406221,0.8950515399032812 | |
| 94 | +mean_growth,3,2026,0.041291912598110846,1470,0.04351557301406221,0.9488996636851643 | |
| 95 | +momentum,3,2026,0.042558566260753244,1470,0.04351557301406221,0.9780077179955851 | |
| 96 | +raref,3,2026,0.04292336989254306,1470,0.04351557301406221,0.9863910071613264 | |
| 97 | +no_change,3,2026,0.04351557301406221,1470,0.04351557301406221,1.0 | |
| 98 | +lightgbm_panel,6,2024,0.03848086935682741,2450,0.056553237068663754,0.6804361934243677 | |
| 99 | +ar2_cell,6,2024,0.041130379880955394,2450,0.056553237068663754,0.7272860407798974 | |
| 100 | +qrefa,6,2024,0.0424958951839152,2450,0.056553237068663754,0.7514317019964583 | |
| 101 | +dsgfn,6,2024,0.043489544854635916,2450,0.056553237068663754,0.7690018663623687 | |
| 102 | +bhpf,6,2024,0.04367220046054736,2450,0.056553237068663754,0.7722316656696951 | |
| 103 | +ridge_panel,6,2024,0.04446435322087528,2450,0.056553237068663754,0.7862388702328245 | |
| 104 | +mean_growth,6,2024,0.04554067555532772,2450,0.056553237068663754,0.8052708901531984 | |
| 105 | +raref,6,2024,0.047334933807387215,2450,0.056553237068663754,0.8369977787463484 | |
| 106 | +qanss,6,2024,0.04963287809278727,2450,0.056553237068663754,0.877631072338544 | |
| 107 | +tft_lite,6,2024,0.055271056229212044,2450,0.056553237068663754,0.9773278965818534 | |
| 108 | +no_change,6,2024,0.056553237068663754,2450,0.056553237068663754,1.0 | |
| 109 | +momentum,6,2024,0.06316788784693615,2450,0.056553237068663754,1.1169632565902685 | |
| 110 | +qanss,6,2025,0.04102387237698231,2940,0.051973155992839706,0.7893280981942703 | |
| 111 | +lightgbm_panel,6,2025,0.042566219548988156,2940,0.051973155992839706,0.8190039403197386 | |
| 112 | +ar2_cell,6,2025,0.0452146289449501,2940,0.051973155992839706,0.8699611959523734 | |
| 113 | +mean_growth,6,2025,0.046622051206398916,2940,0.051973155992839706,0.897040988098202 | |
| 114 | +qrefa,6,2025,0.04839400797571957,2940,0.051973155992839706,0.9311346800334152 | |
| 115 | +raref,6,2025,0.04922366889926902,2940,0.051973155992839706,0.9470979385213882 | |
| 116 | +ridge_panel,6,2025,0.05144771052570614,2940,0.051973155992839706,0.9898900604149197 | |
| 117 | +bhpf,6,2025,0.05174755203617847,2940,0.051973155992839706,0.9956592215278919 | |
| 118 | +no_change,6,2025,0.051973155992839706,2940,0.051973155992839706,1.0 | |
| 119 | +tft_lite,6,2025,0.05208247520669765,2940,0.051973155992839706,1.002103378403132 | |
| 120 | +dsgfn,6,2025,0.05255637836514123,2940,0.051973155992839706,1.0112216077927205 | |
| 121 | +momentum,6,2025,0.053913692381642585,2940,0.051973155992839706,1.0373372821359979 | |
| 122 | +raref,6,2026,0.03652254932680825,735,0.051382535614600315,0.7107969447196839 | |
| 123 | +lightgbm_panel,6,2026,0.03682413546485643,735,0.051382535614600315,0.716666373591592 | |
| 124 | +qrefa,6,2026,0.037772752624198734,735,0.051382535614600315,0.7351282332097607 | |
| 125 | +tft_lite,6,2026,0.04022469222080597,735,0.051382535614600315,0.7828475519876086 | |
| 126 | +bhpf,6,2026,0.042485090518231745,735,0.051382535614600315,0.8268391197525805 | |
| 127 | +ridge_panel,6,2026,0.042568383339604485,735,0.051382535614600315,0.8284601534438232 | |
| 128 | +ar2_cell,6,2026,0.04339133468813524,735,0.051382535614600315,0.844476321947133 | |
| 129 | +dsgfn,6,2026,0.04360043507413684,735,0.051382535614600315,0.8485458055469689 | |
| 130 | +mean_growth,6,2026,0.0445268119830981,735,0.051382535614600315,0.8665748284023149 | |
| 131 | +qanss,6,2026,0.04647229194745964,735,0.051382535614600315,0.9044374979084249 | |
| 132 | +no_change,6,2026,0.051382535614600315,735,0.051382535614600315,1.0 | |
| 133 | +momentum,6,2026,0.05162541302018786,735,0.051382535614600315,1.004726847413862 | |
| 134 | +lightgbm_panel,12,2024,0.04724395318688856,980,0.09246246759531036,0.5109527618672892 | |
| 135 | +ar2_cell,12,2024,0.047899659764403864,980,0.09246246759531036,0.5180443590803897 | |
| 136 | +mean_growth,12,2024,0.052970913288024786,980,0.09246246759531036,0.5728909758267303 | |
| 137 | +qrefa,12,2024,0.05405462222078063,980,0.09246246759531036,0.5846115037440581 | |
| 138 | +bhpf,12,2024,0.05824048005540375,980,0.09246246759531036,0.6298823897963726 | |
| 139 | +dsgfn,12,2024,0.059599827066601725,980,0.09246246759531036,0.644583998422562 | |
| 140 | +tft_lite,12,2024,0.061129192453969965,980,0.09246246759531036,0.6611243896444572 | |
| 141 | +ridge_panel,12,2024,0.06534455356939246,980,0.09246246759531036,0.7067143595538943 | |
| 142 | +raref,12,2024,0.06589907960601733,980,0.09246246759531036,0.7127116690681927 | |
| 143 | +no_change,12,2024,0.09246246759531036,980,0.09246246759531036,1.0 | |
| 144 | +momentum,12,2024,0.09248651075829044,980,0.09246246759531036,1.00026003159558 | |
| 145 | +qanss,12,2024,0.11395765631915561,980,0.09246246759531036,1.2324747465958334 | |
| 146 | +ar2_cell,12,2025,0.04719500413874869,2205,0.06757312959825848,0.6984285679727497 | |
| 147 | +mean_growth,12,2025,0.050286719196402964,2205,0.06757312959825848,0.7441821844773484 | |
| 148 | +lightgbm_panel,12,2025,0.06112927286576948,2205,0.06757312959825848,0.9046387703100395 | |
| 149 | +qanss,12,2025,0.0664152717860454,2205,0.06757312959825848,0.982865114889648 | |
| 150 | +no_change,12,2025,0.06757312959825848,2205,0.06757312959825848,1.0 | |
| 151 | +momentum,12,2025,0.06776110867391313,2205,0.06757312959825848,1.0027818613222776 | |
| 152 | +tft_lite,12,2025,0.0729860295800699,2205,0.06757312959825848,1.0801043256985825 | |
| 153 | +qrefa,12,2025,0.08595550393038008,2205,0.06757312959825848,1.2720367465797433 | |
| 154 | +bhpf,12,2025,0.09097339036340617,2205,0.06757312959825848,1.3462953529645425 | |
| 155 | +dsgfn,12,2025,0.09384503277522302,2205,0.06757312959825848,1.3887921624047679 | |
| 156 | +raref,12,2025,0.09719304281432875,2205,0.06757312959825848,1.4383386324145278 | |
| 157 | +ridge_panel,12,2025,0.10258817198795189,2205,0.06757312959825848,1.5181799718004452 | |
added
results/extra/municipal_mase_b.csv
+961 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,961 @@ | ||
| 1 | +class,geo_id,model,mae,mean_n,n,mae_nc,mase | |
| 2 | +condo,56083,no_change,0.020667224323352117,15.064516129032258,31,0.020667224323352117,1.0 | |
| 3 | +condo,97007,lightgbm_panel,0.03244539373107067,0.41935483870967744,31,0.026003932843309957,1.2477110261195707 | |
| 4 | +condo,39062,lightgbm_panel,0.017399207780333877,2.5483870967741935,31,0.019780115171822352,0.879631267522639 | |
| 5 | +condo,67050,qanss,0.013351365026590609,2.2580645161290325,31,0.019021983400938594,0.7018913193842771 | |
| 6 | +condo,39062,qanss,0.016424910917760584,2.5483870967741935,31,0.019780115171822352,0.8303748878650916 | |
| 7 | +plex,73005,no_change,0.11262191222002997,1.8064516129032258,31,0.11262191222002997,1.0 | |
| 8 | +house,36033,ridge_panel,0.03138416057569242,45.45161290322581,31,0.05185831818869241,0.6051904819106854 | |
| 9 | +condo,59020,qanss,0.018944605923236022,4.354838709677419,31,0.022315331790274066,0.8489502240559496 | |
| 10 | +plex,52007,qanss,0.02419550302279443,2.064516129032258,31,0.03415381944202661,0.7084274443701493 | |
| 11 | +house,64008,ar2_cell,0.04253045478741491,103.93548387096774,31,0.049997097642969016,0.8506584740403602 | |
| 12 | +house,67050,qanss,0.03691644154187834,42.193548387096776,31,0.04159016449971364,0.8876243214217757 | |
| 13 | +plex,81017,qanss,0.026210402025295638,44.61290322580645,31,0.034448956494260115,0.760847488360433 | |
| 14 | +condo,93042,qanss,0.011991382574568025,1.0,31,0.02357619042804361,0.5086225703498056 | |
| 15 | +house,49058,lightgbm_panel,0.025684234621614437,71.29032258064517,31,0.038576338909586866,0.6658028041959024 | |
| 16 | +plex,54048,lightgbm_panel,0.03917682154871061,9.35483870967742,31,0.0473858363588674,0.8267622682020971 | |
| 17 | +condo,89008,ar2_cell,0.016573731472251187,1.032258064516129,31,0.027446325447215727,0.60385975908234 | |
| 18 | +plex,58227,no_change,0.03785756266424333,36.87096774193548,31,0.03785756266424333,1.0 | |
| 19 | +plex,59015,qanss,0.035977699112770066,2.129032258064516,31,0.0411503183641954,0.8742994111091497 | |
| 20 | +house,54048,qanss,0.03837154991067152,38.67741935483871,31,0.0412589791459181,0.9300169491582722 | |
| 21 | +condo,75005,lightgbm_panel,0.01893455598767412,0.03225806451612903,31,0.02801200834396392,0.6759442505933057 | |
| 22 | +plex,66023,lightgbm_panel,0.028736429180160856,327.3225806451613,31,0.03683169795933435,0.7802091886148873 | |
| 23 | +condo,36033,ar2_cell,0.05219879441907849,1.6129032258064515,31,0.04732516642857713,1.102981740124604 | |
| 24 | +plex,25213,no_change,0.042253739630389246,21.096774193548388,31,0.042253739630389246,1.0 | |
| 25 | +house,52007,ar2_cell,0.041560625252370004,17.580645161290324,31,0.04669869629194173,0.8899739939751091 | |
| 26 | +house,66142,ar2_cell,0.039359343353724124,32.38709677419355,31,0.04282535405677127,0.9190663853367693 | |
| 27 | +condo,54048,ar2_cell,0.02494363471020134,11.838709677419354,31,0.026008798810985268,0.9590460094476168 | |
| 28 | +house,49058,ar2_cell,0.02860999596875165,71.29032258064517,31,0.038576338909586866,0.7416462209077489 | |
| 29 | +plex,77043,ridge_panel,0.03755254619015215,3.7419354838709675,31,0.03987415489031853,0.9417766042552523 | |
| 30 | +condo,81017,ridge_panel,0.03767393640881915,64.06451612903226,31,0.01714133948740538,2.1978408651494314 | |
| 31 | +plex,62037,lightgbm_panel,0.02954575895679766,1.8387096774193548,31,0.045379686247517696,0.6510789606531013 | |
| 32 | +plex,72015,ar2_cell,0.034128529820584924,2.3870967741935485,31,0.04335487778304856,0.7871900825408147 | |
| 33 | +plex,59015,lightgbm_panel,0.03341827857635609,2.129032258064516,31,0.0411503183641954,0.8121025524175068 | |
| 34 | +house,31084,ridge_panel,0.0374474847907572,24.93548387096774,31,0.053606686577799545,0.6985599592395914 | |
| 35 | +condo,97007,ar2_cell,0.03280254210633696,0.41935483870967744,31,0.026003932843309957,1.2614454245822313 | |
| 36 | +plex,66097,qanss,0.05846130827315418,0.3225806451612903,31,0.05119406630797862,1.1419547711146156 | |
| 37 | +house,81017,ar2_cell,0.03810212768845942,239.4516129032258,31,0.03579933680374744,1.0643249593515076 | |
| 38 | +house,65005,ridge_panel,0.03301220385004262,243.29032258064515,31,0.041379745530324814,0.7977865360687123 | |
| 39 | +plex,25213,lightgbm_panel,0.03134314784195227,21.096774193548388,31,0.042253739630389246,0.7417839963071579 | |
| 40 | +condo,58012,ridge_panel,0.024631146099245934,16.580645161290324,31,0.02034696210739908,1.210556444211833 | |
| 41 | +house,56083,ar2_cell,0.05089730170099319,83.19354838709677,31,0.05205309160046616,0.9777959413372747 | |
| 42 | +condo,58012,no_change,0.02034696210739908,16.580645161290324,31,0.02034696210739908,1.0 | |
| 43 | +condo,25213,no_change,0.02891749372381526,20.225806451612904,31,0.02891749372381526,1.0 | |
| 44 | +plex,23072,no_change,0.03536485260469175,1.1935483870967742,31,0.03536485260469175,1.0 | |
| 45 | +plex,67020,ridge_panel,0.05148911866947618,0.6774193548387096,31,0.049477669192032364,1.0406536829703315 | |
| 46 | +condo,74005,lightgbm_panel,0.015110680693318463,14.193548387096774,31,0.023803078624137133,0.6348204336054126 | |
| 47 | +house,72015,qanss,0.042099555153392906,19.612903225806452,31,0.04921084363839667,0.8554934652765189 | |
| 48 | +plex,43027,qanss,0.03104477060275479,28.741935483870968,31,0.03619729110186907,0.8576545276657948 | |
| 49 | +house,75017,qanss,0.03921417224927842,65.12903225806451,31,0.0515436228550365,0.7607958090095073 | |
| 50 | +plex,62037,qanss,0.03574854794749979,1.8387096774193548,31,0.045379686247517696,0.7877654277403751 | |
| 51 | +condo,59010,no_change,0.02215047220188633,6.354838709677419,31,0.02215047220188633,1.0 | |
| 52 | +house,89008,lightgbm_panel,0.03757219187390388,28.258064516129032,31,0.06225114519865197,0.603558243852476 | |
| 53 | +plex,73010,no_change,0.04264331680898908,6.193548387096774,31,0.04264331680898908,1.0 | |
| 54 | +condo,23027,lightgbm_panel,0.029550552856059415,206.67741935483872,31,0.04315247707704911,0.6847938949900061 | |
| 55 | +house,58007,ridge_panel,0.03526049784615335,53.25806451612903,31,0.04274583538565665,0.8248873259354992 | |
| 56 | +condo,67050,no_change,0.019021983400938594,2.2580645161290325,31,0.019021983400938594,1.0 | |
| 57 | +house,57005,ar2_cell,0.06036577164747617,29.193548387096776,31,0.07481395194669913,0.8068785310323334 | |
| 58 | +condo,64008,ar2_cell,0.025318943794652504,29.161290322580644,31,0.022350951288172907,1.1327904333114502 | |
| 59 | +plex,60013,no_change,0.038276934681138734,5.516129032258065,31,0.038276934681138734,1.0 | |
| 60 | +condo,43027,qanss,0.018252019386029814,21.032258064516128,31,0.027732303052543164,0.6581501489958668 | |
| 61 | +house,58227,ar2_cell,0.04808960587292372,126.61290322580645,31,0.04729289736931875,1.0168462612341835 | |
| 62 | +house,70052,lightgbm_panel,0.03244858986080565,42.645161290322584,31,0.047289861099482314,0.6861637802772245 | |
| 63 | +condo,63048,ar2_cell,0.11174341204595031,0.5483870967741935,31,0.10840198911434598,1.0308243691735184 | |
| 64 | +condo,73015,no_change,0.02113681356166819,12.0,31,0.02113681356166819,1.0 | |
| 65 | +plex,73010,ridge_panel,0.03631213901281281,6.193548387096774,31,0.04264331680898908,0.8515317693383156 | |
| 66 | +condo,65005,lightgbm_panel,0.019402047999074502,106.3225806451613,31,0.02373101542599955,0.8175818712678321 | |
| 67 | +house,73010,no_change,0.04004584204120924,14.67741935483871,31,0.04004584204120924,1.0 | |
| 68 | +plex,66097,ridge_panel,0.076935959589524,0.3225806451612903,31,0.05119406630797862,1.5028296272986914 | |
| 69 | +condo,29073,lightgbm_panel,0.020927499376806467,2.774193548387097,31,0.027267913551409163,0.7674771059161205 | |
| 70 | +house,65005,lightgbm_panel,0.029773693325683807,243.29032258064515,31,0.041379745530324814,0.719523354822576 | |
| 71 | +plex,29073,lightgbm_panel,0.03646651307079706,4.0,31,0.04422468206153482,0.8245737757946358 | |
| 72 | +plex,67050,qanss,0.046735883937793384,3.4838709677419355,31,0.05026861830629679,0.9297228671180547 | |
| 73 | +condo,45072,no_change,0.021456874458969384,8.451612903225806,31,0.021456874458969384,1.0 | |
| 74 | +plex,39062,lightgbm_panel,0.03440596326495833,5.903225806451613,31,0.04305233836240001,0.7991659587765148 | |
| 75 | +plex,77022,lightgbm_panel,0.026246124619592293,4.612903225806452,31,0.04267808014544396,0.614979036782988 | |
| 76 | +plex,56083,qanss,0.03500504350481772,12.935483870967742,31,0.04250873582724773,0.8234788173206458 | |
| 77 | +condo,66142,ar2_cell,0.022542939717916495,7.516129032258065,31,0.016607775144014854,1.3573726475963621 | |
| 78 | +house,64008,lightgbm_panel,0.030758700227367937,103.93548387096774,31,0.049997097642969016,0.6152097157122373 | |
| 79 | +condo,56083,ar2_cell,0.02111911304837882,15.064516129032258,31,0.020667224323352117,1.0218649934774313 | |
| 80 | +house,60013,ridge_panel,0.027322117264795834,71.61290322580645,31,0.04043187610407731,0.6757568507200824 | |
| 81 | +house,58037,ar2_cell,0.037552845556001274,25.483870967741936,31,0.045454688965401946,0.8261599938476051 | |
| 82 | +condo,67050,lightgbm_panel,0.010858462231798807,2.2580645161290325,31,0.019021983400938594,0.5708375411190308 | |
| 83 | +plex,94068,ar2_cell,0.035728576114471715,34.774193548387096,31,0.04750220348743283,0.7521456583361245 | |
| 84 | +condo,71083,lightgbm_panel,0.01183184792681598,9.064516129032258,31,0.018305539174260373,0.6463534241839145 | |
| 85 | +house,49058,qanss,0.027329218256273796,71.29032258064517,31,0.038576338909586866,0.7084450994773386 | |
| 86 | +condo,29073,ridge_panel,0.01788851298317688,2.774193548387097,31,0.027267913551409163,0.6560279336903072 | |
| 87 | +house,74005,no_change,0.057871954942973355,58.16129032258065,31,0.057871954942973355,1.0 | |
| 88 | +plex,52007,ridge_panel,0.026550936582729005,2.064516129032258,31,0.03415381944202661,0.7773928953333347 | |
| 89 | +condo,86042,no_change,0.014319056544310114,1.3548387096774193,31,0.014319056544310114,1.0 | |
| 90 | +house,77043,no_change,0.048336064932705126,20.93548387096774,31,0.048336064932705126,1.0 | |
| 91 | +house,94068,qanss,0.03509563339851777,118.25806451612904,31,0.049232221755305894,0.7128590209263796 | |
| 92 | +condo,53052,no_change,0.020011209271961664,2.3225806451612905,31,0.020011209271961664,1.0 | |
| 93 | +house,66097,lightgbm_panel,0.029483357861999262,23.129032258064516,31,0.043875596271610716,0.6719762320603763 | |
| 94 | +plex,63048,qanss,0.042362930681138326,6.709677419354839,31,0.03830553493100908,1.1059219185278812 | |
| 95 | +condo,47017,ar2_cell,0.023203409348751775,14.258064516129032,31,0.02264416872940787,1.0246968933161862 | |
| 96 | +condo,59010,qanss,0.02114353629816435,6.354838709677419,31,0.02215047220188633,0.9545411088962594 | |
| 97 | +house,57005,lightgbm_panel,0.05411271741471509,29.193548387096776,31,0.07481395194669913,0.7232971391922655 | |
| 98 | +plex,49058,ridge_panel,0.034623899248082506,14.516129032258064,31,0.04457630667672722,0.7767332430472363 | |
| 99 | +house,58037,lightgbm_panel,0.03413909485322125,25.483870967741936,31,0.045454688965401946,0.751057715502275 | |
| 100 | +plex,75005,no_change,0.04858681867096674,3.3870967741935485,31,0.04858681867096674,1.0 | |
| 101 | +condo,93042,lightgbm_panel,0.010800275688153681,1.0,31,0.02357619042804361,0.4581009693282285 | |
| 102 | +plex,67015,ar2_cell,0.04267279905337352,2.096774193548387,31,0.05144541426491628,0.8294772170291311 | |
| 103 | +house,70052,ridge_panel,0.03159604539419321,42.645161290322584,31,0.047289861099482314,0.668135719995572 | |
| 104 | +plex,77043,ar2_cell,0.03261674372243461,3.7419354838709675,31,0.03987415489031853,0.8179921007016496 | |
| 105 | +plex,66142,no_change,0.03464322033434304,0.22580645161290322,31,0.03464322033434304,1.0 | |
| 106 | +plex,74005,ridge_panel,0.04457401865727949,16.806451612903224,31,0.06013443296421019,0.741239527174195 | |
| 107 | +house,77022,no_change,0.044004152441317654,21.677419354838708,31,0.044004152441317654,1.0 | |
| 108 | +plex,70052,qanss,0.03583297245556153,12.612903225806452,31,0.04570453322970466,0.784013530462503 | |
| 109 | +condo,54048,lightgbm_panel,0.0195166439561004,11.838709677419354,31,0.026008798810985268,0.7503862096029289 | |
| 110 | +house,59010,lightgbm_panel,0.04149697603948432,30.032258064516128,31,0.07093713073413009,0.5849824430454278 | |
| 111 | +condo,47017,no_change,0.02264416872940787,14.258064516129032,31,0.02264416872940787,1.0 | |
| 112 | +house,75017,no_change,0.0515436228550365,65.12903225806451,31,0.0515436228550365,1.0 | |
| 113 | +condo,67035,lightgbm_panel,0.04751128166313515,6.548387096774194,31,0.05125393045448844,0.9269783066749072 | |
| 114 | +plex,67035,ridge_panel,0.042521106238843955,1.8387096774193548,31,0.05458335596662332,0.7790123103615101 | |
| 115 | +plex,70052,ar2_cell,0.03568773565552654,12.612903225806452,31,0.04570453322970466,0.7808357975381769 | |
| 116 | +condo,23027,ridge_panel,0.02929735238261284,206.67741935483872,31,0.04315247707704911,0.6789263181879958 | |
| 117 | +condo,94068,ridge_panel,0.015862589292055477,9.0,31,0.02395382559589923,0.6622152786639254 | |
| 118 | +plex,75017,lightgbm_panel,0.04340073550562269,22.225806451612904,31,0.04485191596319712,0.9676450732056757 | |
| 119 | +condo,46078,ridge_panel,0.03392304142658683,5.903225806451613,31,0.02451927636475571,1.3835253912855356 | |
| 120 | +plex,67035,no_change,0.05458335596662332,1.8387096774193548,31,0.05458335596662332,1.0 | |
| 121 | +plex,10043,qanss,0.022794134741887535,5.129032258064516,31,0.03459142469954136,0.6589533371312618 | |
| 122 | +house,54048,ar2_cell,0.03264249986146201,38.67741935483871,31,0.0412589791459181,0.7911611129790024 | |
| 123 | +house,71105,ar2_cell,0.061556110737307365,23.774193548387096,31,0.062278506108098805,0.9884005668097183 | |
| 124 | +plex,94068,lightgbm_panel,0.0338373095237488,34.774193548387096,31,0.04750220348743283,0.712331366537571 | |
| 125 | +house,64015,lightgbm_panel,0.03413309866230732,45.25806451612903,31,0.05584029507055853,0.6112628634783809 | |
| 126 | +house,64008,no_change,0.049997097642969016,103.93548387096774,31,0.049997097642969016,1.0 | |
| 127 | +condo,72005,no_change,0.026595215410543986,11.32258064516129,31,0.026595215410543986,1.0 | |
| 128 | +condo,57035,ridge_panel,0.031545624337499585,7.870967741935484,31,0.01532486156195089,2.0584606399200487 | |
| 129 | +condo,57040,lightgbm_panel,0.01756293941101281,7.064516129032258,31,0.016365534667589835,1.0731662464896001 | |
| 130 | +condo,52007,ar2_cell,0.02395217213172872,0.4838709677419355,31,0.02323295529710769,1.0309567519682081 | |
| 131 | +house,72005,lightgbm_panel,0.03725742533559305,39.29032258064516,31,0.0538945005594945,0.6913029149321892 | |
| 132 | +plex,58227,qanss,0.03331762993781944,36.87096774193548,31,0.03785756266424333,0.8800785785738954 | |
| 133 | +condo,81017,no_change,0.01714133948740538,64.06451612903226,31,0.01714133948740538,1.0 | |
| 134 | +condo,60013,ridge_panel,0.034490823016232026,26.419354838709676,31,0.028624259866592363,1.2049507367869652 | |
| 135 | +condo,60028,ridge_panel,0.02983962182442326,3.7096774193548385,31,0.030911044899383993,0.9653385034880498 | |
| 136 | +house,73015,ridge_panel,0.026879733661753474,55.12903225806452,31,0.03660299678554128,0.7343588236570664 | |
| 137 | +plex,39062,qanss,0.035848431300495226,5.903225806451613,31,0.04305233836240001,0.8326709457390042 | |
| 138 | +plex,37067,qanss,0.03635573103543724,28.258064516129032,31,0.049867401931253656,0.7290480279192533 | |
| 139 | +house,66142,lightgbm_panel,0.03399730264689389,32.38709677419355,31,0.04282535405677127,0.7938592311887368 | |
| 140 | +condo,57040,qanss,0.02030873070927638,7.064516129032258,31,0.016365534667589835,1.240945140001788 | |
| 141 | +condo,71105,qanss,0.01808631165576029,0.9354838709677419,31,0.017236888695607726,1.0492793667785887 | |
| 142 | +plex,73005,ar2_cell,0.11027398880290538,1.8064516129032258,31,0.11262191222002997,0.9791521616811351 | |
| 143 | +condo,57040,ar2_cell,0.024118121262909104,7.064516129032258,31,0.016365534667589835,1.4737142264390801 | |
| 144 | +condo,60013,ar2_cell,0.02718230002634244,26.419354838709676,31,0.028624259866592363,0.94962455459214 | |
| 145 | +house,29073,qanss,0.05167991308729053,29.548387096774192,31,0.05437088358660437,0.9505071405538675 | |
| 146 | +condo,66023,ar2_cell,0.021284965438794008,650.0322580645161,31,0.01999067162592292,1.0647448888707027 | |
| 147 | +plex,58037,no_change,0.03850021495403664,0.3225806451612903,31,0.03850021495403664,1.0 | |
| 148 | +plex,63048,no_change,0.03830553493100908,6.709677419354839,31,0.03830553493100908,1.0 | |
| 149 | +plex,57035,ridge_panel,0.08600714489506822,0.8387096774193549,31,0.08399501363571772,1.023955365589641 | |
| 150 | +condo,31084,ar2_cell,0.026857246824586876,0.45161290322580644,31,0.02830470765268615,0.9488614810702025 | |
| 151 | +condo,70052,ar2_cell,0.02072671989400265,3.4193548387096775,31,0.017722565754334185,1.1695101139028798 | |
| 152 | +house,47017,ridge_panel,0.042810088653738074,57.516129032258064,31,0.06052674791096199,0.7072920672479207 | |
| 153 | +plex,94068,ridge_panel,0.03198948527922206,34.774193548387096,31,0.04750220348743283,0.673431608023935 | |
| 154 | +house,52007,qanss,0.0420841494437689,17.580645161290324,31,0.04669869629194173,0.9011846750640635 | |
| 155 | +condo,58037,ridge_panel,0.026734278278460265,6.354838709677419,31,0.018184980073822334,1.4701296438011955 | |
| 156 | +plex,59015,no_change,0.0411503183641954,2.129032258064516,31,0.0411503183641954,1.0 | |
| 157 | +plex,47017,ar2_cell,0.056198215258399166,10.741935483870968,31,0.06004426134857524,0.93594648341415 | |
| 158 | +plex,64008,ar2_cell,0.04263194348352463,14.32258064516129,31,0.05117722509265536,0.83302569465891 | |
| 159 | +house,39062,ridge_panel,0.024687168056315687,42.645161290322584,31,0.04222309311293329,0.5846840256417358 | |
| 160 | +plex,67015,lightgbm_panel,0.03802518053827915,2.096774193548387,31,0.05144541426491628,0.7391364435801775 | |
| 161 | +house,73005,ridge_panel,0.044265210069013974,21.161290322580644,31,0.0458492500640935,0.965451125310334 | |
| 162 | +plex,29073,ridge_panel,0.027015800425191226,4.0,31,0.04422468206153482,0.6108760801852928 | |
| 163 | +plex,31084,qanss,0.03893247009328036,6.580645161290323,31,0.04394431158707675,0.8859501648156372 | |
| 164 | +plex,57005,ar2_cell,0.08203840708559738,2.129032258064516,31,0.08347570427522993,0.9827818500950456 | |
| 165 | +plex,71083,no_change,0.03995544215767985,1.6129032258064515,31,0.03995544215767985,1.0 | |
| 166 | +house,57040,qanss,0.041811861496223665,25.806451612903224,31,0.05883188748045653,0.7107006639913299 | |
| 167 | +plex,66023,no_change,0.03683169795933435,327.3225806451613,31,0.03683169795933435,1.0 | |
| 168 | +plex,64015,ar2_cell,0.042426650771355254,6.741935483870968,31,0.05138163816712156,0.8257161952166701 | |
| 169 | +house,81017,no_change,0.03579933680374744,239.4516129032258,31,0.03579933680374744,1.0 | |
| 170 | +house,59020,ridge_panel,0.0626384959342264,17.516129032258064,31,0.07726397627349975,0.8107076409386189 | |
| 171 | +house,64015,qanss,0.03555780994531847,45.25806451612903,31,0.05584029507055853,0.6367768991977645 | |
| 172 | +plex,58007,lightgbm_panel,0.03145711747473024,2.2903225806451615,31,0.04106606969004364,0.7660123725538054 | |
| 173 | +condo,75045,ridge_panel,0.02557213019610823,0.03225806451612903,31,0.027567478140892183,0.9276194966189469 | |
| 174 | +house,67050,ar2_cell,0.035860402074147604,42.193548387096776,31,0.04159016449971364,0.8622327539578382 | |
| 175 | +house,62037,ar2_cell,0.036711965072010036,17.93548387096774,31,0.03876282944562176,0.9470919846940283 | |
| 176 | +house,93042,qanss,0.0531625935613585,28.0,31,0.06864221092399593,0.7744883628562427 | |
| 177 | +house,67020,ar2_cell,0.05150709878176968,23.258064516129032,31,0.05515306632914995,0.9338936565082099 | |
| 178 | +plex,65005,lightgbm_panel,0.0235562914666027,32.354838709677416,31,0.03666756988636981,0.6424284876145863 | |
| 179 | +condo,66142,qanss,0.01884392426208396,7.516129032258065,31,0.016607775144014854,1.1346447130141315 | |
| 180 | +plex,46078,ar2_cell,0.05871394765907872,1.032258064516129,31,0.05068820948551821,1.1583354049200236 | |
| 181 | +house,73010,ridge_panel,0.029508407611411602,14.67741935483871,31,0.04004584204120924,0.736865704585408 | |
| 182 | +plex,77022,ridge_panel,0.03119474780695596,4.612903225806452,31,0.04267808014544396,0.7309313750910632 | |
| 183 | +condo,67020,qanss,0.015022152961138836,8.67741935483871,31,0.019298102869673456,0.778426411268945 | |
| 184 | +plex,75045,ar2_cell,0.03443749743624428,2.6451612903225805,31,0.04524363309448174,0.7611567657338407 | |
| 185 | +plex,66023,ar2_cell,0.033476095793442184,327.3225806451613,31,0.03683169795933435,0.9088936336957077 | |
| 186 | +condo,77043,ar2_cell,0.0344271515076839,2.870967741935484,31,0.03229926382975352,1.0658803770001162 | |
| 187 | +plex,46078,qanss,0.0668868533470451,1.032258064516129,31,0.05068820948551821,1.3195741973516524 | |
| 188 | +house,53052,lightgbm_panel,0.02683235427046938,34.0,31,0.039846841615424185,0.6733872292674491 | |
| 189 | +plex,29073,no_change,0.04422468206153482,4.0,31,0.04422468206153482,1.0 | |
| 190 | +house,36033,qanss,0.035298861253065056,45.45161290322581,31,0.05185831818869241,0.6806788666887754 | |
| 191 | +condo,58033,no_change,0.04998527906843036,16.161290322580644,31,0.04998527906843036,1.0 | |
| 192 | +house,93042,ridge_panel,0.044968099784591035,28.0,31,0.06864221092399593,0.655108557537314 | |
| 193 | +condo,67020,no_change,0.019298102869673456,8.67741935483871,31,0.019298102869673456,1.0 | |
| 194 | +plex,45072,qanss,0.0248055175139,4.548387096774194,31,0.03226703268651503,0.7687573181858358 | |
| 195 | +condo,57005,qanss,0.024610168048231393,13.419354838709678,31,0.01924783452678323,1.278594119976796 | |
| 196 | +plex,57035,qanss,0.08478248816057912,0.8387096774193549,31,0.08399501363571772,1.0093752532534448 | |
| 197 | +condo,58012,lightgbm_panel,0.01365874234319992,16.580645161290324,31,0.02034696210739908,0.6712914817997808 | |
| 198 | +plex,71083,ar2_cell,0.03224009801504372,1.6129032258064515,31,0.03995544215767985,0.8069012948927369 | |
| 199 | +plex,10043,lightgbm_panel,0.026555062736379174,5.129032258064516,31,0.03459142469954136,0.7676776243544332 | |
| 200 | +condo,77022,ar2_cell,0.03269792421504786,3.032258064516129,31,0.03368421633122685,0.9707194578469486 | |
| 201 | +house,74005,lightgbm_panel,0.031668144523013926,58.16129032258065,31,0.057871954942973355,0.5472105539586404 | |
| 202 | +house,60028,no_change,0.04802941077653713,21.06451612903226,31,0.04802941077653713,1.0 | |
| 203 | +plex,58033,ridge_panel,0.028698089060519304,1.4838709677419355,31,0.04098607539926355,0.700191193739788 | |
| 204 | +plex,75017,no_change,0.04485191596319712,22.225806451612904,31,0.04485191596319712,1.0 | |
| 205 | +condo,59015,no_change,0.02127217810570437,5.0,31,0.02127217810570437,1.0 | |
| 206 | +house,73015,qanss,0.02944270083583921,55.12903225806452,31,0.03660299678554128,0.804379515927218 | |
| 207 | +house,94068,no_change,0.049232221755305894,118.25806451612904,31,0.049232221755305894,1.0 | |
| 208 | +condo,58007,no_change,0.0163216874623934,52.70967741935484,31,0.0163216874623934,1.0 | |
| 209 | +plex,56083,no_change,0.04250873582724773,12.935483870967742,31,0.04250873582724773,1.0 | |
| 210 | +condo,59020,ar2_cell,0.019214586244895915,4.354838709677419,31,0.022315331790274066,0.8610486469786848 | |
| 211 | +house,75005,lightgbm_panel,0.03228640800586928,21.225806451612904,31,0.05345600043508866,0.6039809889083358 | |
| 212 | +condo,66142,lightgbm_panel,0.018919650493689162,7.516129032258065,31,0.016607775144014854,1.1392043985197782 | |
| 213 | +house,73005,no_change,0.0458492500640935,21.161290322580644,31,0.0458492500640935,1.0 | |
| 214 | +house,10043,qanss,0.06192053426293252,43.354838709677416,31,0.08409389427762744,0.7363261601194039 | |
| 215 | +house,63048,no_change,0.06289317944714591,31.580645161290324,31,0.06289317944714591,1.0 | |
| 216 | +condo,60028,ar2_cell,0.025244818851727555,3.7096774193548385,31,0.030911044899383993,0.8166925101982121 | |
| 217 | +house,73010,lightgbm_panel,0.026908593546259612,14.67741935483871,31,0.04004584204120924,0.6719447556769883 | |
| 218 | +condo,59015,ar2_cell,0.019606654391482386,5.0,31,0.02127217810570437,0.9217041289356562 | |
| 219 | +condo,73010,no_change,0.022341556055840858,12.419354838709678,31,0.022341556055840858,1.0 | |
| 220 | +house,31084,lightgbm_panel,0.0449491123861399,24.93548387096774,31,0.053606686577799545,0.8384982407167643 | |
| 221 | +house,29073,lightgbm_panel,0.04457517621540511,29.548387096774192,31,0.05437088358660437,0.8198354206328794 | |
| 222 | +condo,49058,no_change,0.020082203937462777,2.3225806451612905,31,0.020082203937462777,1.0 | |
| 223 | +condo,73005,lightgbm_panel,0.0232390606699612,4.064516129032258,31,0.03159246505716242,0.7355887116726463 | |
| 224 | +house,73005,ar2_cell,0.04515894787904926,21.161290322580644,31,0.0458492500640935,0.9849440899452171 | |
| 225 | +condo,64015,ridge_panel,0.03053501710360777,23.548387096774192,31,0.02192500669747209,1.392702749191333 | |
| 226 | +house,67035,no_change,0.054086779656309564,24.70967741935484,31,0.054086779656309564,1.0 | |
| 227 | +condo,57040,no_change,0.016365534667589835,7.064516129032258,31,0.016365534667589835,1.0 | |
| 228 | +condo,58007,qanss,0.013095156018566432,52.70967741935484,31,0.0163216874623934,0.8023163075961858 | |
| 229 | +condo,77022,qanss,0.03654499050712578,3.032258064516129,31,0.03368421633122685,1.0849292187108672 | |
| 230 | +plex,59010,ar2_cell,0.13445541190841329,1.3548387096774193,31,0.1398889974677805,0.9611578776192268 | |
| 231 | +condo,58007,lightgbm_panel,0.013338637190333156,52.70967741935484,31,0.0163216874623934,0.8172339545813843 | |
| 232 | +condo,74005,ar2_cell,0.020603451994070866,14.193548387096774,31,0.023803078624137133,0.8655792941497182 | |
| 233 | +plex,75028,lightgbm_panel,0.07769678424507108,6.0,31,0.0861077084608662,0.902320891286781 | |
| 234 | +condo,73015,lightgbm_panel,0.018150902015186033,12.0,31,0.02113681356166819,0.8587340737159581 | |
| 235 | +house,57035,ridge_panel,0.0481534172504527,20.29032258064516,31,0.063868571135985,0.753945428776345 | |
| 236 | +house,58012,no_change,0.04487488781505725,14.35483870967742,31,0.04487488781505725,1.0 | |
| 237 | +condo,36033,ridge_panel,0.0569817068284805,1.6129032258064515,31,0.04732516642857713,1.204046623152968 | |
| 238 | +house,58012,ar2_cell,0.042491057667094455,14.35483870967742,31,0.04487488781505725,0.9468783040129867 | |
| 239 | +condo,71105,ridge_panel,0.03047787495282648,0.9354838709677419,31,0.017236888695607726,1.7681772790348642 | |
| 240 | +plex,71105,no_change,0.039506321886504735,0.6774193548387096,31,0.039506321886504735,1.0 | |
| 241 | +condo,67015,ridge_panel,0.02635879817150396,9.193548387096774,31,0.01835236067676886,1.4362619957044525 | |
| 242 | +house,46078,qanss,0.051342782061398064,16.483870967741936,31,0.06231486181034645,0.8239251531626339 | |
| 243 | +condo,58037,ar2_cell,0.019135608341210378,6.354838709677419,31,0.018184980073822334,1.0522754637909388 | |
| 244 | +plex,58012,no_change,0.03890905819338008,1.3870967741935485,31,0.03890905819338008,1.0 | |
| 245 | +condo,73010,lightgbm_panel,0.017063032351500366,12.419354838709678,31,0.022341556055840858,0.7637351807032929 | |
| 246 | +house,43027,ridge_panel,0.0319147380568584,135.5483870967742,31,0.06012064179280478,0.5308449328742519 | |
| 247 | +house,66023,ar2_cell,0.04826110613726618,293.7096774193548,31,0.04990598058484665,0.9670405344549042 | |
| 248 | +plex,64015,no_change,0.05138163816712156,6.741935483870968,31,0.05138163816712156,1.0 | |
| 249 | +house,29073,ar2_cell,0.04732409475324053,29.548387096774192,31,0.05437088358660437,0.8703940718171446 | |
| 250 | +condo,52007,ridge_panel,0.03160971353824334,0.4838709677419355,31,0.02323295529710769,1.3605550018933017 | |
| 251 | +condo,29073,no_change,0.027267913551409163,2.774193548387097,31,0.027267913551409163,1.0 | |
| 252 | +condo,58012,qanss,0.015215389940251862,16.580645161290324,31,0.02034696210739908,0.7477966420706537 | |
| 253 | +plex,66142,ar2_cell,0.03234432373657412,0.22580645161290322,31,0.03464322033434304,0.9336407939105493 | |
| 254 | +plex,45072,lightgbm_panel,0.01913122996564207,4.548387096774194,31,0.03226703268651503,0.5929032939442662 | |
| 255 | +house,29073,ridge_panel,0.04294933809615969,29.548387096774192,31,0.05437088358660437,0.7899326857130814 | |
| 256 | +condo,72005,ar2_cell,0.027089690460328768,11.32258064516129,31,0.026595215410543986,1.0185926318757599 | |
| 257 | +house,67020,no_change,0.05515306632914995,23.258064516129032,31,0.05515306632914995,1.0 | |
| 258 | +plex,67015,no_change,0.05144541426491628,2.096774193548387,31,0.05144541426491628,1.0 | |
| 259 | +condo,81017,lightgbm_panel,0.024646429076703516,64.06451612903226,31,0.01714133948740538,1.4378356542563382 | |
| 260 | +condo,54048,ridge_panel,0.025407745376767904,11.838709677419354,31,0.026008798810985268,0.976890380882815 | |
| 261 | +condo,43027,lightgbm_panel,0.02000226947081814,21.032258064516128,31,0.027732303052543164,0.7212624726089546 | |
| 262 | +house,31084,no_change,0.053606686577799545,24.93548387096774,31,0.053606686577799545,1.0 | |
| 263 | +condo,25213,qanss,0.021125572651369877,20.225806451612904,31,0.02891749372381526,0.730546459286398 | |
| 264 | +house,53052,ar2_cell,0.03840422862320794,34.0,31,0.039846841615424185,0.9637960517388202 | |
| 265 | +house,23072,ridge_panel,0.07042172435718091,13.483870967741936,31,0.09983719388119296,0.7053656219643284 | |
| 266 | +plex,62037,no_change,0.045379686247517696,1.8387096774193548,31,0.045379686247517696,1.0 | |
| 267 | +plex,65005,no_change,0.03666756988636981,32.354838709677416,31,0.03666756988636981,1.0 | |
| 268 | +plex,59020,lightgbm_panel,0.03455963477627565,1.935483870967742,31,0.04978100303484061,0.694233395660753 | |
| 269 | +house,54048,lightgbm_panel,0.033653028351313105,38.67741935483871,31,0.0412589791459181,0.8156534419403473 | |
| 270 | +condo,60013,no_change,0.028624259866592363,26.419354838709676,31,0.028624259866592363,1.0 | |
| 271 | +condo,56083,qanss,0.019217311415152823,15.064516129032258,31,0.020667224323352117,0.9298448168213367 | |
| 272 | +house,66142,qanss,0.041284789479658024,32.38709677419355,31,0.04282535405677127,0.9640268104947596 | |
| 273 | +condo,72005,lightgbm_panel,0.023965372242231137,11.32258064516129,31,0.026595215410543986,0.9011159290226987 | |
| 274 | +plex,53052,qanss,0.035564703612847054,8.0,31,0.042374739526830324,0.8392902000100467 | |
| 275 | +house,57035,no_change,0.063868571135985,20.29032258064516,31,0.063868571135985,1.0 | |
| 276 | +condo,75017,ar2_cell,0.023456185015965695,26.06451612903226,31,0.027149973464123366,0.8639487271308485 | |
| 277 | +house,52007,lightgbm_panel,0.036727961726304964,17.580645161290324,31,0.04669869629194173,0.78648794597383 | |
| 278 | +plex,72015,qanss,0.041800471514487195,2.3870967741935485,31,0.04335487778304856,0.9641469115346204 | |
| 279 | +plex,62037,ar2_cell,0.028710882358731784,1.8387096774193548,31,0.045379686247517696,0.6326813764672578 | |
| 280 | +condo,58227,ridge_panel,0.027104619133787138,90.7741935483871,31,0.017898659666376982,1.5143379246829163 | |
| 281 | +house,49058,no_change,0.038576338909586866,71.29032258064517,31,0.038576338909586866,1.0 | |
| 282 | +condo,72015,qanss,0.03286161052961211,8.935483870967742,31,0.033215725578710484,0.9893389338053377 | |
| 283 | +condo,58037,lightgbm_panel,0.014289385576163065,6.354838709677419,31,0.018184980073822334,0.7857795564336604 | |
| 284 | +condo,49058,ar2_cell,0.014952626445264397,2.3225806451612905,31,0.020082203937462777,0.7445709889127606 | |
| 285 | +plex,23027,no_change,0.035919313188354667,86.58064516129032,31,0.035919313188354667,1.0 | |
| 286 | +condo,81017,ar2_cell,0.023485904368000052,64.06451612903226,31,0.01714133948740538,1.3701323858182934 | |
| 287 | +house,23072,ar2_cell,0.0818555695736842,13.483870967741936,31,0.09983719388119296,0.81989052768343 | |
| 288 | +plex,25213,ridge_panel,0.02560131491566794,21.096774193548388,31,0.042253739630389246,0.6058946531032074 | |
| 289 | +plex,60013,lightgbm_panel,0.03016250962806724,5.516129032258065,31,0.038276934681138734,0.7880074483323258 | |
| 290 | +house,57035,lightgbm_panel,0.04934107181980084,20.29032258064516,31,0.063868571135985,0.772540718262616 | |
| 291 | +condo,67020,ar2_cell,0.017529248829041364,8.67741935483871,31,0.019298102869673456,0.9083405217301538 | |
| 292 | +plex,89008,no_change,0.040821175723862846,6.032258064516129,31,0.040821175723862846,1.0 | |
| 293 | +condo,71083,ridge_panel,0.028768684905640073,9.064516129032258,31,0.018305539174260373,1.5715835863546728 | |
| 294 | +condo,97007,ridge_panel,0.04240576571920198,0.41935483870967744,31,0.026003932843309957,1.6307443175893193 | |
| 295 | +condo,49058,lightgbm_panel,0.015118992021949478,2.3225806451612905,31,0.020082203937462777,0.752855217934792 | |
| 296 | +plex,65005,qanss,0.025773598608879462,32.354838709677416,31,0.03666756988636981,0.7028990109993657 | |
| 297 | +condo,62037,lightgbm_panel,0.03999506939658265,0.7096774193548387,31,0.03616204057581137,1.105995921683003 | |
| 298 | +condo,65005,qanss,0.01875836972606861,106.3225806451613,31,0.02373101542599955,0.7904579466716396 | |
| 299 | +condo,39062,no_change,0.019780115171822352,2.5483870967741935,31,0.019780115171822352,1.0 | |
| 300 | +condo,23027,no_change,0.04315247707704911,206.67741935483872,31,0.04315247707704911,1.0 | |
| 301 | +condo,52007,lightgbm_panel,0.02055645152706242,0.4838709677419355,31,0.02323295529710769,0.8847971023996904 | |
| 302 | +house,59010,no_change,0.07093713073413009,30.032258064516128,31,0.07093713073413009,1.0 | |
| 303 | +plex,75045,no_change,0.04524363309448174,2.6451612903225805,31,0.04524363309448174,1.0 | |
| 304 | +plex,58007,ridge_panel,0.028636828336728534,2.2903225806451615,31,0.04106606969004364,0.6973355023471228 | |
| 305 | +condo,52007,no_change,0.02323295529710769,0.4838709677419355,31,0.02323295529710769,1.0 | |
| 306 | +house,67050,lightgbm_panel,0.03133584993557939,42.193548387096776,31,0.04159016449971364,0.7534437603822208 | |
| 307 | +condo,63048,no_change,0.10840198911434598,0.5483870967741935,31,0.10840198911434598,1.0 | |
| 308 | +house,56083,ridge_panel,0.03846224606387872,83.19354838709677,31,0.05205309160046616,0.7389041626786731 | |
| 309 | +house,74005,ar2_cell,0.04437051111842547,58.16129032258065,31,0.057871954942973355,0.7667014387564388 | |
| 310 | +house,57005,qanss,0.045106756097998905,29.193548387096776,31,0.07481395194669913,0.6029190401562401 | |
| 311 | +house,67035,lightgbm_panel,0.05242899295303271,24.70967741935484,31,0.054086779656309564,0.9693495025251802 | |
| 312 | +house,67020,lightgbm_panel,0.03953319098291571,23.258064516129032,31,0.05515306632914995,0.7167904454665163 | |
| 313 | +house,94068,ar2_cell,0.04832517773529944,118.25806451612904,31,0.049232221755305894,0.9815762119265175 | |
| 314 | +condo,58227,lightgbm_panel,0.014644300835096009,90.7741935483871,31,0.017898659666376982,0.8181786294649561 | |
| 315 | +house,46078,ar2_cell,0.05784430724483032,16.483870967741936,31,0.06231486181034645,0.9282586138259901 | |
| 316 | +plex,64008,no_change,0.05117722509265536,14.32258064516129,31,0.05117722509265536,1.0 | |
| 317 | +house,72015,ridge_panel,0.036200632069335444,19.612903225806452,31,0.04921084363839667,0.7356230739578292 | |
| 318 | +plex,59015,ridge_panel,0.03448057772879944,2.129032258064516,31,0.0411503183641954,0.8379176419398191 | |
| 319 | +plex,77022,qanss,0.03136971758833254,4.612903225806452,31,0.04267808014544396,0.7350311326429563 | |
| 320 | +plex,86042,lightgbm_panel,0.02585870405522599,8.741935483870968,31,0.0421136533245558,0.6140218673488531 | |
| 321 | +plex,57040,ridge_panel,0.07592181996270923,1.8064516129032258,31,0.08351832822287102,0.9090438180241074 | |
| 322 | +house,57035,ar2_cell,0.050408289629206966,20.29032258064516,31,0.063868571135985,0.7892503109531097 | |
| 323 | +plex,75045,ridge_panel,0.03978057695899003,2.6451612903225805,31,0.04524363309448174,0.8792524878786088 | |
| 324 | +plex,75028,qanss,0.0817383887966491,6.0,31,0.0861077084608662,0.9492575085051435 | |
| 325 | +condo,53052,qanss,0.013963774100973535,2.3225806451612905,31,0.020011209271961664,0.6977976148867034 | |
| 326 | +condo,60028,no_change,0.030911044899383993,3.7096774193548385,31,0.030911044899383993,1.0 | |
| 327 | +plex,75028,ridge_panel,0.06719314854824104,6.0,31,0.0861077084608662,0.7803383663238309 | |
| 328 | +house,63048,lightgbm_panel,0.04624536044059638,31.580645161290324,31,0.06289317944714591,0.7353000889303107 | |
| 329 | +condo,66023,no_change,0.01999067162592292,650.0322580645161,31,0.01999067162592292,1.0 | |
| 330 | +plex,10043,ar2_cell,0.025892408261060183,5.129032258064516,31,0.03459142469954136,0.7485210131111912 | |
| 331 | +house,73005,lightgbm_panel,0.04608545031864157,21.161290322580644,31,0.0458492500640935,1.0051516710571684 | |
| 332 | +plex,66142,lightgbm_panel,0.027917387769792884,0.22580645161290322,31,0.03464322033434304,0.8058542912685688 | |
| 333 | +plex,58007,ar2_cell,0.03097139592403434,2.2903225806451615,31,0.04106606969004364,0.7541845654526631 | |
| 334 | +condo,47017,qanss,0.016249006792243413,14.258064516129032,31,0.02264416872940787,0.7175801852748478 | |
| 335 | +house,56083,no_change,0.05205309160046616,83.19354838709677,31,0.05205309160046616,1.0 | |
| 336 | +plex,73005,lightgbm_panel,0.08359684396610342,1.8064516129032258,31,0.11262191222002997,0.7422786766644476 | |
| 337 | +condo,62037,ridge_panel,0.05349501178713494,0.7096774193548387,31,0.03616204057581137,1.4793139694367115 | |
| 338 | +condo,65005,ridge_panel,0.030776321750600393,106.3225806451613,31,0.02373101542599955,1.2968817894274365 | |
| 339 | +condo,37067,lightgbm_panel,0.014524827080958218,13.612903225806452,31,0.024895368597045987,0.5834349077555611 | |
| 340 | +condo,58033,ar2_cell,0.04923275796199468,16.161290322580644,31,0.04998527906843036,0.9849451454416115 | |
| 341 | +condo,70052,ridge_panel,0.025439597238005065,3.4193548387096775,31,0.017722565754334185,1.4354353421870432 | |
| 342 | +plex,36033,no_change,0.04814805015467382,16.06451612903226,31,0.04814805015467382,1.0 | |
| 343 | +house,31084,qanss,0.03931071409766978,24.93548387096774,31,0.053606686577799545,0.7333173640683429 | |
| 344 | +plex,49058,no_change,0.04457630667672722,14.516129032258064,31,0.04457630667672722,1.0 | |
| 345 | +condo,37067,ridge_panel,0.01817860706912746,13.612903225806452,31,0.024895368597045987,0.7302003582820815 | |
| 346 | +condo,75045,ar2_cell,0.023514969183154735,0.03225806451612903,31,0.027567478140892183,0.8529967472169258 | |
| 347 | +condo,31084,ridge_panel,0.029407170269130714,0.45161290322580644,31,0.02830470765268615,1.0389497969727286 | |
| 348 | +house,89008,qanss,0.04482018172144291,28.258064516129032,31,0.06225114519865197,0.719989673738781 | |
| 349 | +house,58007,lightgbm_panel,0.034049237480015135,53.25806451612903,31,0.04274583538565665,0.7965509896536107 | |
| 350 | +plex,23072,ar2_cell,0.026400844402180886,1.1935483870967742,31,0.03536485260469175,0.7465277657817345 | |
| 351 | +plex,56083,ar2_cell,0.03393520705753711,12.935483870967742,31,0.04250873582724773,0.7983113681725849 | |
| 352 | +house,54048,no_change,0.0412589791459181,38.67741935483871,31,0.0412589791459181,1.0 | |
| 353 | +house,89008,ridge_panel,0.03832334539570274,28.258064516129032,31,0.06225114519865197,0.6156247451096309 | |
| 354 | +house,65005,ar2_cell,0.040610513842591456,243.29032258064515,31,0.041379745530324814,0.9814104297193024 | |
| 355 | +plex,75005,qanss,0.0615316879099038,3.3870967741935485,31,0.04858681867096674,1.2664275948297954 | |
| 356 | +condo,25213,ar2_cell,0.02051280792127373,20.225806451612904,31,0.02891749372381526,0.7093563542258235 | |
| 357 | +house,60013,lightgbm_panel,0.026766989166940713,71.61290322580645,31,0.04043187610407731,0.662026889329566 | |
| 358 | +plex,72005,no_change,0.08304598225275957,3.7419354838709675,31,0.08304598225275957,1.0 | |
| 359 | +plex,58007,no_change,0.04106606969004364,2.2903225806451615,31,0.04106606969004364,1.0 | |
| 360 | +condo,45072,qanss,0.017566257486453577,8.451612903225806,31,0.021456874458969384,0.8186773670156114 | |
| 361 | +plex,64008,qanss,0.04675285101615594,14.32258064516129,31,0.05117722509265536,0.9135479880261351 | |
| 362 | +plex,58033,ar2_cell,0.03178974719856117,1.4838709677419355,31,0.04098607539926355,0.775623108308935 | |
| 363 | +condo,72015,ar2_cell,0.029595565677507023,8.935483870967742,31,0.033215725578710484,0.8910106632286308 | |
| 364 | +plex,47017,qanss,0.05029222156667481,10.741935483870968,31,0.06004426134857524,0.8375858148160593 | |
| 365 | +condo,86042,ridge_panel,0.02770930692211786,1.3548387096774193,31,0.014319056544310114,1.9351349606289918 | |
| 366 | +plex,58227,ar2_cell,0.03095334817821075,36.87096774193548,31,0.03785756266424333,0.8176265453942272 | |
| 367 | +house,43027,qanss,0.036003914334491204,135.5483870967742,31,0.06012064179280478,0.598861110940438 | |
| 368 | +house,23027,ar2_cell,0.04266852934025038,331.4193548387097,31,0.050999907884849545,0.8366393413217487 | |
| 369 | +house,58033,qanss,0.039923685597105955,37.61290322580645,31,0.04492332877735862,0.8887071969882052 | |
| 370 | +condo,65005,no_change,0.02373101542599955,106.3225806451613,31,0.02373101542599955,1.0 | |
| 371 | +plex,75005,ridge_panel,0.057338235590219916,3.3870967741935485,31,0.04858681867096674,1.1801191590360829 | |
| 372 | +condo,66142,ridge_panel,0.03045140142363312,7.516129032258065,31,0.016607775144014854,1.833562964308754 | |
| 373 | +plex,97007,no_change,0.03222354310206974,3.193548387096774,31,0.03222354310206974,1.0 | |
| 374 | +plex,70052,no_change,0.04570453322970466,12.612903225806452,31,0.04570453322970466,1.0 | |
| 375 | +condo,67015,qanss,0.013899291751046336,9.193548387096774,31,0.01835236067676886,0.7573571594329336 | |
| 376 | +house,89008,no_change,0.06225114519865197,28.258064516129032,31,0.06225114519865197,1.0 | |
| 377 | +plex,58227,lightgbm_panel,0.034431097526807446,36.87096774193548,31,0.03785756266424333,0.9094906038239963 | |
| 378 | +plex,52007,ar2_cell,0.022177440809718972,2.064516129032258,31,0.03415381944202661,0.6493399910180884 | |
| 379 | +condo,10043,lightgbm_panel,0.01344342818603027,5.129032258064516,31,0.020513984828815956,0.6553299272770403 | |
| 380 | +house,59010,qanss,0.05726135607318634,30.032258064516128,31,0.07093713073413009,0.8072127457170479 | |
| 381 | +house,75005,ar2_cell,0.04662175134881168,21.225806451612904,31,0.05345600043508866,0.8721518813481794 | |
| 382 | +house,75028,lightgbm_panel,0.03680471878078513,22.032258064516128,31,0.05830042237291534,0.6312942047892182 | |
| 383 | +house,54048,ridge_panel,0.03243680593312682,38.67741935483871,31,0.0412589791459181,0.7861756787149182 | |
| 384 | +condo,58007,ar2_cell,0.018314279495422907,52.70967741935484,31,0.0163216874623934,1.1220824769265196 | |
| 385 | +house,75017,ar2_cell,0.04354597790673822,65.12903225806451,31,0.0515436228550365,0.8448373531912726 | |
| 386 | +condo,67050,ridge_panel,0.021158546425869,2.2580645161290325,31,0.019021983400938594,1.1123207280700804 | |
| 387 | +plex,57035,lightgbm_panel,0.08222815253347986,0.8387096774193549,31,0.08399501363571772,0.9789646905719825 | |
| 388 | +condo,59015,lightgbm_panel,0.01505993668645436,5.0,31,0.02127217810570437,0.707964018147059 | |
| 389 | +plex,10043,ridge_panel,0.02621835882827166,5.129032258064516,31,0.03459142469954136,0.7579438851103257 | |
| 390 | +condo,64015,qanss,0.02197471594280829,23.548387096774192,31,0.02192500669747209,1.0022672396876362 | |
| 391 | +condo,73005,ridge_panel,0.028289399232262875,4.064516129032258,31,0.03159246505716242,0.8954476702301298 | |
| 392 | +house,45072,no_change,0.056349940040470725,27.838709677419356,31,0.056349940040470725,1.0 | |
| 393 | +condo,94068,qanss,0.010349537427061859,9.0,31,0.02395382559589923,0.43206198465574724 | |
| 394 | +house,89008,ar2_cell,0.05945622878687219,28.258064516129032,31,0.06225114519865197,0.9551025703565643 | |
| 395 | +condo,53052,ridge_panel,0.024274702031365513,2.3225806451612905,31,0.020011209271961664,1.2130552282703657 | |
| 396 | +house,23072,no_change,0.09983719388119296,13.483870967741936,31,0.09983719388119296,1.0 | |
| 397 | +plex,57005,no_change,0.08347570427522993,2.129032258064516,31,0.08347570427522993,1.0 | |
| 398 | +house,59020,lightgbm_panel,0.05292653275073402,17.516129032258064,31,0.07726397627349975,0.6850091763771539 | |
| 399 | +house,58227,qanss,0.03168298894121292,126.61290322580645,31,0.04729289736931875,0.6699312307680106 | |
| 400 | +condo,75028,no_change,0.1505321778372725,0.12903225806451613,31,0.1505321778372725,1.0 | |
| 401 | +condo,59020,ridge_panel,0.023604912555016073,4.354838709677419,31,0.022315331790274066,1.0577890025056254 | |
| 402 | +house,59015,lightgbm_panel,0.06928607542633033,14.096774193548388,31,0.09469235203782474,0.7316966358450374 | |
| 403 | +house,77022,lightgbm_panel,0.02930476826469593,21.677419354838708,31,0.044004152441317654,0.665954611982942 | |
| 404 | +house,31084,ar2_cell,0.055229347285156355,24.93548387096774,31,0.053606686577799545,1.0302697445215503 | |
| 405 | +house,57005,ridge_panel,0.05964226120936873,29.193548387096776,31,0.07481395194669913,0.7972077354216043 | |
| 406 | +condo,37067,qanss,0.018679872680068738,13.612903225806452,31,0.024895368597045987,0.750335252408564 | |
| 407 | +house,77043,ridge_panel,0.0329664740168059,20.93548387096774,31,0.048336064932705126,0.6820264343550263 | |
| 408 | +condo,57035,lightgbm_panel,0.017516816368875452,7.870967741935484,31,0.01532486156195089,1.143032600853428 | |
| 409 | +house,58012,ridge_panel,0.032877518442056365,14.35483870967742,31,0.04487488781505725,0.7326484820988164 | |
| 410 | +house,58037,ridge_panel,0.031430697153099464,25.483870967741936,31,0.045454688965401946,0.691473154222287 | |
| 411 | +house,71105,ridge_panel,0.050124220501499395,23.774193548387096,31,0.062278506108098805,0.8048398016242904 | |
| 412 | +plex,67050,ridge_panel,0.049223352780107026,3.4838709677419355,31,0.05026861830629679,0.9792064003068326 | |
| 413 | +house,58007,qanss,0.03699615571250431,53.25806451612903,31,0.04274583538565665,0.8654914655128803 | |
| 414 | +condo,63048,qanss,0.12483422839325399,0.5483870967741935,31,0.10840198911434598,1.1515861416673336 | |
| 415 | +plex,77043,qanss,0.030720976830192554,3.7419354838709675,31,0.03987415489031853,0.7704483496815534 | |
| 416 | +condo,66097,no_change,0.02179156434253552,7.645161290322581,31,0.02179156434253552,1.0 | |
| 417 | +condo,75028,ar2_cell,0.14945707647705567,0.12903225806451613,31,0.1505321778372725,0.9928579963721841 | |
| 418 | +plex,57005,ridge_panel,0.07457537179851521,2.129032258064516,31,0.08347570427522993,0.8933781684863754 | |
| 419 | +condo,66097,ar2_cell,0.024410968003397374,7.645161290322581,31,0.02179156434253552,1.1202026444585702 | |
| 420 | +house,60013,ar2_cell,0.03604056950504533,71.61290322580645,31,0.04043187610407731,0.8913899867587609 | |
| 421 | +plex,57040,no_change,0.08351832822287102,1.8064516129032258,31,0.08351832822287102,1.0 | |
| 422 | +plex,70052,ridge_panel,0.02892480535715263,12.612903225806452,31,0.04570453322970466,0.6328651298500427 | |
| 423 | +house,43027,lightgbm_panel,0.03368893671162389,135.5483870967742,31,0.06012064179280478,0.5603555735104573 | |
| 424 | +plex,60028,ar2_cell,0.04703058087477735,2.7419354838709675,31,0.046779150280574375,1.0053748431233773 | |
| 425 | +plex,74005,qanss,0.04677463560707238,16.806451612903224,31,0.06013443296421019,0.7778344835297761 | |
| 426 | +plex,59010,no_change,0.1398889974677805,1.3548387096774193,31,0.1398889974677805,1.0 | |
| 427 | +condo,77043,lightgbm_panel,0.03282521610315127,2.870967741935484,31,0.03229926382975352,1.016283723250474 | |
| 428 | +house,53052,no_change,0.039846841615424185,34.0,31,0.039846841615424185,1.0 | |
| 429 | +condo,73010,qanss,0.017207532707078407,12.419354838709678,31,0.022341556055840858,0.7702029645593894 | |
| 430 | +plex,60028,ridge_panel,0.04324465330909209,2.7419354838709675,31,0.046779150280574375,0.9244428992343192 | |
| 431 | +plex,58037,ar2_cell,0.030800741529929673,0.3225806451612903,31,0.03850021495403664,0.8000147938576717 | |
| 432 | +house,47017,no_change,0.06052674791096199,57.516129032258064,31,0.06052674791096199,1.0 | |
| 433 | +plex,49058,lightgbm_panel,0.03671009190540365,14.516129032258064,31,0.04457630667672722,0.8235337254750531 | |
| 434 | +plex,31084,lightgbm_panel,0.03413889720849557,6.580645161290323,31,0.04394431158707675,0.7768672662182566 | |
| 435 | +plex,31084,ridge_panel,0.029023124258367252,6.580645161290323,31,0.04394431158707675,0.6604523591377056 | |
| 436 | +plex,72015,no_change,0.04335487778304856,2.3870967741935485,31,0.04335487778304856,1.0 | |
| 437 | +condo,94068,no_change,0.02395382559589923,9.0,31,0.02395382559589923,1.0 | |
| 438 | +plex,59010,qanss,0.13366462978220447,1.3548387096774193,31,0.1398889974677805,0.9555049517957291 | |
| 439 | +condo,10043,qanss,0.011448535848850961,5.129032258064516,31,0.020513984828815956,0.5580844455324557 | |
| 440 | +house,81017,ridge_panel,0.034316677093411366,239.4516129032258,31,0.03579933680374744,0.958584157062349 | |
| 441 | +condo,43027,ridge_panel,0.022524008789708953,21.032258064516128,31,0.027732303052543164,0.8121939511130292 | |
| 442 | +house,67035,ridge_panel,0.04833555438379976,24.70967741935484,31,0.054086779656309564,0.8936667091467538 | |
| 443 | +house,74005,ridge_panel,0.037435134289031745,58.16129032258065,31,0.057871954942973355,0.6468614085340659 | |
| 444 | +plex,59015,ar2_cell,0.03301620875518459,2.129032258064516,31,0.0411503183641954,0.8023317939603538 | |
| 445 | +plex,46078,lightgbm_panel,0.06409829927277393,1.032258064516129,31,0.05068820948551821,1.2645603370757657 | |
| 446 | +house,37067,lightgbm_panel,0.026813065329657302,105.90322580645162,31,0.042348025499698155,0.6331597521553495 | |
| 447 | +condo,59020,lightgbm_panel,0.014287017924125412,4.354838709677419,31,0.022315331790274066,0.6402332736254578 | |
| 448 | +house,47017,ar2_cell,0.051759822060154906,57.516129032258064,31,0.06052674791096199,0.8551561722149075 | |
| 449 | +house,75005,ridge_panel,0.03377864557470935,21.225806451612904,31,0.05345600043508866,0.6318962380233923 | |
| 450 | +house,58037,qanss,0.03703232043456658,25.483870967741936,31,0.045454688965401946,0.8147084773312145 | |
| 451 | +house,37067,no_change,0.042348025499698155,105.90322580645162,31,0.042348025499698155,1.0 | |
| 452 | +condo,57005,lightgbm_panel,0.02168994774200192,13.419354838709678,31,0.01924783452678323,1.1268772968626941 | |
| 453 | +plex,89008,lightgbm_panel,0.02581371082002106,6.032258064516129,31,0.040821175723862846,0.6323607873188016 | |
| 454 | +condo,73010,ridge_panel,0.02811141121234693,12.419354838709678,31,0.022341556055840858,1.258256638082182 | |
| 455 | +plex,23072,lightgbm_panel,0.02840232534444425,1.1935483870967742,31,0.03536485260469175,0.8031229668033791 | |
| 456 | +condo,62037,no_change,0.03616204057581137,0.7096774193548387,31,0.03616204057581137,1.0 | |
| 457 | +house,45072,lightgbm_panel,0.03673318780530768,27.838709677419356,31,0.056349940040470725,0.6518762536202484 | |
| 458 | +condo,72015,ridge_panel,0.04210591798525493,8.935483870967742,31,0.033215725578710484,1.2676501040291166 | |
| 459 | +plex,63048,ridge_panel,0.048134808250034945,6.709677419354839,31,0.03830553493100908,1.2566019071846686 | |
| 460 | +plex,36033,ar2_cell,0.037720545190253994,16.06451612903226,31,0.04814805015467382,0.7834283022693161 | |
| 461 | +house,59020,qanss,0.06575620409682556,17.516129032258064,31,0.07726397627349975,0.8510590221769215 | |
| 462 | +plex,66023,qanss,0.02970525102307239,327.3225806451613,31,0.03683169795933435,0.806513211958617 | |
| 463 | +condo,58033,ridge_panel,0.05745247386065083,16.161290322580644,31,0.04998527906843036,1.1493878784191203 | |
| 464 | +condo,29073,ar2_cell,0.02159990721094434,2.774193548387097,31,0.027267913551409163,0.7921364122788959 | |
| 465 | +house,60028,qanss,0.036204033300523346,21.06451612903226,31,0.04802941077653713,0.7537888288691935 | |
| 466 | +house,97007,ar2_cell,0.045485796172735966,19.741935483870968,31,0.046568619400292464,0.9767477919358353 | |
| 467 | +condo,74005,qanss,0.016067998488429283,14.193548387096774,31,0.023803078624137133,0.6750386679870807 | |
| 468 | +plex,39062,no_change,0.04305233836240001,5.903225806451613,31,0.04305233836240001,1.0 | |
| 469 | +house,75028,qanss,0.05468483301694988,22.032258064516128,31,0.05830042237291534,0.9379834792132629 | |
| 470 | +condo,75017,lightgbm_panel,0.019584231693666274,26.06451612903226,31,0.027149973464123366,0.7213352057063832 | |
| 471 | +condo,57005,ridge_panel,0.03151497084465514,13.419354838709678,31,0.01924783452678323,1.637325528791422 | |
| 472 | +plex,59010,ridge_panel,0.1271416819216133,1.3548387096774193,31,0.1398889974677805,0.9088754957365165 | |
| 473 | +condo,64015,ar2_cell,0.023629589125955898,23.548387096774192,31,0.02192500669747209,1.0777460391234608 | |
| 474 | +plex,72005,lightgbm_panel,0.07218543833607588,3.7419354838709675,31,0.08304598225275957,0.8692225244126991 | |
| 475 | +condo,62037,ar2_cell,0.03996324694980654,0.7096774193548387,31,0.03616204057581137,1.1051159258014267 | |
| 476 | +plex,56083,lightgbm_panel,0.03383105838147965,12.935483870967742,31,0.04250873582724773,0.7958613146946195 | |
| 477 | +house,71105,lightgbm_panel,0.04873894319661856,23.774193548387096,31,0.062278506108098805,0.7825965367894473 | |
| 478 | +plex,65005,ridge_panel,0.02593023023847665,32.354838709677416,31,0.03666756988636981,0.7071706774905615 | |
| 479 | +house,97007,ridge_panel,0.027913253468065162,19.741935483870968,31,0.046568619400292464,0.5994004938847266 | |
| 480 | +house,10043,lightgbm_panel,0.0530113846810798,43.354838709677416,31,0.08409389427762744,0.6303832773645623 | |
| 481 | +house,75005,no_change,0.05345600043508866,21.225806451612904,31,0.05345600043508866,1.0 | |
| 482 | +plex,97007,ar2_cell,0.029320032060843316,3.193548387096774,31,0.03222354310206974,0.9098947303209518 | |
| 483 | +plex,43027,ridge_panel,0.026809616924206654,28.741935483870968,31,0.03619729110186907,0.740652576701308 | |
| 484 | +plex,58012,ar2_cell,0.032624339449666834,1.3870967741935485,31,0.03890905819338008,0.8384767189049434 | |
| 485 | +condo,64015,lightgbm_panel,0.01932944344091134,23.548387096774192,31,0.02192500669747209,0.8816163072433627 | |
| 486 | +house,86042,qanss,0.037947860423796005,31.129032258064516,31,0.048913991190868616,0.775807892586778 | |
| 487 | +plex,45072,ar2_cell,0.027331155210058165,4.548387096774194,31,0.03226703268651503,0.847030325830994 | |
| 488 | +house,77043,ar2_cell,0.044100175847488175,20.93548387096774,31,0.048336064932705126,0.9123658681956366 | |
| 489 | +condo,73005,ar2_cell,0.029395438826298328,4.064516129032258,31,0.03159246505716242,0.9304572711597888 | |
| 490 | +condo,75017,no_change,0.027149973464123366,26.06451612903226,31,0.027149973464123366,1.0 | |
| 491 | +condo,86042,ar2_cell,0.01696281482112454,1.3548387096774193,31,0.014319056544310114,1.1846321556614678 | |
| 492 | +plex,58033,qanss,0.03532530049972142,1.4838709677419355,31,0.04098607539926355,0.8618854124382974 | |
| 493 | +plex,97007,qanss,0.030023409254941243,3.193548387096774,31,0.03222354310206974,0.931722782930497 | |
| 494 | +condo,39062,ar2_cell,0.016597469482519337,2.5483870967741935,31,0.019780115171822352,0.8390987281086798 | |
| 495 | +plex,81017,ar2_cell,0.02857081598744992,44.61290322580645,31,0.034448956494260115,0.8293666599802635 | |
| 496 | +house,72005,ridge_panel,0.036311950093259666,39.29032258064516,31,0.0538945005594945,0.6737598403602361 | |
| 497 | +house,66142,ridge_panel,0.03383044251268051,32.38709677419355,31,0.04282535405677127,0.7899629380257618 | |
| 498 | +condo,57035,no_change,0.01532486156195089,7.870967741935484,31,0.01532486156195089,1.0 | |
| 499 | +condo,46078,no_change,0.02451927636475571,5.903225806451613,31,0.02451927636475571,1.0 | |
| 500 | +plex,23072,ridge_panel,0.022941272245461993,1.1935483870967742,31,0.03536485260469175,0.6487026116551223 | |
| 501 | +house,36033,lightgbm_panel,0.03377541976577265,45.45161290322581,31,0.05185831818869241,0.6513018729777724 | |
| 502 | +house,71083,ridge_panel,0.03894835202087938,38.74193548387097,31,0.04653390370965805,0.8369887096490403 | |
| 503 | +plex,23027,lightgbm_panel,0.024612171277548882,86.58064516129032,31,0.035919313188354667,0.6852071794493094 | |
| 504 | +condo,49058,qanss,0.015428713366982429,2.3225806451612905,31,0.020082203937462777,0.7682778949476061 | |
| 505 | +plex,58012,qanss,0.03542743751864256,1.3870967741935485,31,0.03890905819338008,0.9105190195703612 | |
| 506 | +plex,60013,ar2_cell,0.027777172692628648,5.516129032258065,31,0.038276934681138734,0.7256895810498658 | |
| 507 | +condo,53052,ar2_cell,0.01825195811065412,2.3225806451612905,31,0.020011209271961664,0.9120867141311402 | |
| 508 | +plex,57040,qanss,0.07994649689724401,1.8064516129032258,31,0.08351832822287102,0.9572329642890424 | |
| 509 | +house,10043,no_change,0.08409389427762744,43.354838709677416,31,0.08409389427762744,1.0 | |
| 510 | +condo,59010,ridge_panel,0.024512453195793052,6.354838709677419,31,0.02215047220188633,1.1066334375348248 | |
| 511 | +house,66097,ar2_cell,0.03988806643873075,23.129032258064516,31,0.043875596271610716,0.9091173642816096 | |
| 512 | +plex,47017,lightgbm_panel,0.03516948686359853,10.741935483870968,31,0.06004426134857524,0.5857260306597651 | |
| 513 | +house,62037,qanss,0.02786059503731223,17.93548387096774,31,0.03876282944562176,0.7187451338245658 | |
| 514 | +house,39062,lightgbm_panel,0.029571438337564013,42.645161290322584,31,0.04222309311293329,0.7003617252404948 | |
| 515 | +condo,73005,no_change,0.03159246505716242,4.064516129032258,31,0.03159246505716242,1.0 | |
| 516 | +house,73010,ar2_cell,0.03862145899143098,14.67741935483871,31,0.04004584204120924,0.9644311874298337 | |
| 517 | +condo,49058,ridge_panel,0.025276490006335934,2.3225806451612905,31,0.020082203937462777,1.2586511961061886 | |
| 518 | +condo,94068,ar2_cell,0.012160930469945829,9.0,31,0.02395382559589923,0.5076821830091188 | |
| 519 | +condo,59010,lightgbm_panel,0.014667128055074188,6.354838709677419,31,0.02215047220188633,0.6621587080127862 | |
| 520 | +plex,57035,ar2_cell,0.08026048744882894,0.8387096774193549,31,0.08399501363571772,0.9555387156303677 | |
| 521 | +house,45072,ridge_panel,0.037084456729964355,27.838709677419356,31,0.056349940040470725,0.6581099590049283 | |
| 522 | +house,23072,lightgbm_panel,0.0691756613824882,13.483870967741936,31,0.09983719388119296,0.6928846724679358 | |
| 523 | +house,60028,ridge_panel,0.034274508918833865,21.06451612903226,31,0.04802941077653713,0.7136150197282313 | |
| 524 | +condo,25213,lightgbm_panel,0.01969188337548084,20.225806451612904,31,0.02891749372381526,0.6809678447085964 | |
| 525 | +plex,75028,ar2_cell,0.0744786618143883,6.0,31,0.0861077084608662,0.8649476701407863 | |
| 526 | +house,75028,ar2_cell,0.055845089433890285,22.032258064516128,31,0.05830042237291534,0.9578848173119628 | |
| 527 | +plex,73015,qanss,0.04486229081333283,8.419354838709678,31,0.043195280421150034,1.0385924197257108 | |
| 528 | +condo,67020,ridge_panel,0.025506876686081266,8.67741935483871,31,0.019298102869673456,1.3217297502421734 | |
| 529 | +house,59020,ar2_cell,0.06672556867703702,17.516129032258064,31,0.07726397627349975,0.8636051611017433 | |
| 530 | +house,70052,no_change,0.047289861099482314,42.645161290322584,31,0.047289861099482314,1.0 | |
| 531 | +condo,70052,lightgbm_panel,0.013772609655795454,3.4193548387096775,31,0.017722565754334185,0.7771227849684949 | |
| 532 | +plex,74005,lightgbm_panel,0.04054419839122046,16.806451612903224,31,0.06013443296421019,0.6742260031844132 | |
| 533 | +house,10043,ridge_panel,0.05041439198227537,43.354838709677416,31,0.08409389427762744,0.5995012172445883 | |
| 534 | +plex,47017,no_change,0.06004426134857524,10.741935483870968,31,0.06004426134857524,1.0 | |
| 535 | +condo,57040,ridge_panel,0.03502072578036226,7.064516129032258,31,0.016365534667589835,2.139907219146161 | |
| 536 | +house,71105,qanss,0.05442107417813421,23.774193548387096,31,0.062278506108098805,0.8738339690369868 | |
| 537 | +plex,81017,no_change,0.034448956494260115,44.61290322580645,31,0.034448956494260115,1.0 | |
| 538 | +plex,89008,ar2_cell,0.03356541139704515,6.032258064516129,31,0.040821175723862846,0.8222548910423423 | |
| 539 | +house,77043,lightgbm_panel,0.03064596588628653,20.93548387096774,31,0.048336064932705126,0.6340186345113682 | |
| 540 | +house,62037,no_change,0.03876282944562176,17.93548387096774,31,0.03876282944562176,1.0 | |
| 541 | +plex,73010,lightgbm_panel,0.035805941071321755,6.193548387096774,31,0.04264331680898908,0.8396612588018476 | |
| 542 | +condo,56083,ridge_panel,0.030173223354241413,15.064516129032258,31,0.020667224323352117,1.45995528389114 | |
| 543 | +plex,64015,ridge_panel,0.03442662242671488,6.741935483870968,31,0.05138163816712156,0.6700179997130576 | |
| 544 | +house,23072,qanss,0.09051072567608927,13.483870967741936,31,0.09983719388119296,0.9065832297309733 | |
| 545 | +plex,94068,qanss,0.03317908236389698,34.774193548387096,31,0.04750220348743283,0.6984745954506053 | |
| 546 | +plex,67050,lightgbm_panel,0.047388774862342956,3.4838709677419355,31,0.05026861830629679,0.9427109090923015 | |
| 547 | +plex,66142,ridge_panel,0.03336952237434334,0.22580645161290322,31,0.03464322033434304,0.963233846400329 | |
| 548 | +plex,58033,no_change,0.04098607539926355,1.4838709677419355,31,0.04098607539926355,1.0 | |
| 549 | +house,77022,ar2_cell,0.04162003728913623,21.677419354838708,31,0.044004152441317654,0.9458206778244214 | |
| 550 | +house,63048,qanss,0.053734405127011504,31.580645161290324,31,0.06289317944714591,0.8543757144949041 | |
| 551 | +plex,58007,qanss,0.04262166516549873,2.2903225806451615,31,0.04106606969004364,1.0378803106115666 | |
| 552 | +plex,53052,no_change,0.042374739526830324,8.0,31,0.042374739526830324,1.0 | |
| 553 | +condo,58037,qanss,0.01443592019292446,6.354838709677419,31,0.018184980073822334,0.7938375590361672 | |
| 554 | +plex,77043,no_change,0.03987415489031853,3.7419354838709675,31,0.03987415489031853,1.0 | |
| 555 | +house,67015,qanss,0.056868537206932086,22.06451612903226,31,0.058004210395505955,0.9804208490930193 | |
| 556 | +condo,66142,no_change,0.016607775144014854,7.516129032258065,31,0.016607775144014854,1.0 | |
| 557 | +house,57040,ar2_cell,0.05534506681859885,25.806451612903224,31,0.05883188748045653,0.9407324699039109 | |
| 558 | +house,93042,lightgbm_panel,0.05088093255011002,28.0,31,0.06864221092399593,0.7412484514295135 | |
| 559 | +condo,75045,no_change,0.027567478140892183,0.03225806451612903,31,0.027567478140892183,1.0 | |
| 560 | +condo,63048,lightgbm_panel,0.10219797215953073,0.5483870967741935,31,0.10840198911434598,0.9427684214514639 | |
| 561 | +condo,57005,ar2_cell,0.023971511834040338,13.419354838709678,31,0.01924783452678323,1.2454134412203173 | |
| 562 | +condo,77043,ridge_panel,0.04209049331058725,2.870967741935484,31,0.03229926382975352,1.303140948736244 | |
| 563 | +plex,63048,lightgbm_panel,0.04318881178178445,6.709677419354839,31,0.03830553493100908,1.1274822779415687 | |
| 564 | +plex,45072,no_change,0.03226703268651503,4.548387096774194,31,0.03226703268651503,1.0 | |
| 565 | +condo,62037,qanss,0.049410303050156215,0.7096774193548387,31,0.03616204057581137,1.3663582658332216 | |
| 566 | +plex,75045,lightgbm_panel,0.043446043869734635,2.6451612903225805,31,0.04524363309448174,0.9602686808773022 | |
| 567 | +condo,65005,ar2_cell,0.01995675848799694,106.3225806451613,31,0.02373101542599955,0.8409567871306696 | |
| 568 | +plex,60028,lightgbm_panel,0.045479851022576775,2.7419354838709675,31,0.046779150280574375,0.9722248213102505 | |
| 569 | +plex,66097,no_change,0.05119406630797862,0.3225806451612903,31,0.05119406630797862,1.0 | |
| 570 | +plex,45072,ridge_panel,0.02424387436691901,4.548387096774194,31,0.03226703268651503,0.7513512197559759 | |
| 571 | +house,46078,no_change,0.06231486181034645,16.483870967741936,31,0.06231486181034645,1.0 | |
| 572 | +plex,60028,no_change,0.046779150280574375,2.7419354838709675,31,0.046779150280574375,1.0 | |
| 573 | +plex,75017,ar2_cell,0.034186070187577675,22.225806451612904,31,0.04485191596319712,0.7621986587067714 | |
| 574 | +house,64015,no_change,0.05584029507055853,45.25806451612903,31,0.05584029507055853,1.0 | |
| 575 | +condo,75005,ridge_panel,0.02519302174410199,0.03225806451612903,31,0.02801200834396392,0.8993650663941284 | |
| 576 | +house,58037,no_change,0.045454688965401946,25.483870967741936,31,0.045454688965401946,1.0 | |
| 577 | +condo,56083,lightgbm_panel,0.016468823786491994,15.064516129032258,31,0.020667224323352117,0.7968570684106667 | |
| 578 | +plex,67020,qanss,0.05613898959324447,0.6774193548387096,31,0.049477669192032364,1.1346328658966984 | |
| 579 | +plex,66097,ar2_cell,0.05906854672932601,0.3225806451612903,31,0.05119406630797862,1.1538162718697762 | |
| 580 | +house,75045,qanss,0.07029288721574947,20.387096774193548,31,0.09293699871561867,0.7563498734324449 | |
| 581 | +house,37067,ridge_panel,0.028085623403142572,105.90322580645162,31,0.042348025499698155,0.6632097499644407 | |
| 582 | +condo,97007,no_change,0.026003932843309957,0.41935483870967744,31,0.026003932843309957,1.0 | |
| 583 | +house,59010,ridge_panel,0.05090436934494693,30.032258064516128,31,0.07093713073413009,0.7175983694031092 | |
| 584 | +condo,66097,lightgbm_panel,0.021841548107479715,7.645161290322581,31,0.02179156434253552,1.00229372082511 | |
| 585 | +condo,39062,ridge_panel,0.02608303328975439,2.5483870967741935,31,0.019780115171822352,1.318649212260949 | |
| 586 | +plex,93042,no_change,0.048276651651072366,7.225806451612903,31,0.048276651651072366,1.0 | |
| 587 | +plex,67035,qanss,0.0412377423869478,1.8387096774193548,31,0.05458335596662332,0.7555003106105072 | |
| 588 | +condo,75045,qanss,0.020185686969350865,0.03225806451612903,31,0.027567478140892183,0.7322282751503647 | |
| 589 | +condo,58227,no_change,0.017898659666376982,90.7741935483871,31,0.017898659666376982,1.0 | |
| 590 | +house,58033,lightgbm_panel,0.03440260105374835,37.61290322580645,31,0.04492332877735862,0.7658070314479295 | |
| 591 | +condo,72005,ridge_panel,0.03309824535804918,11.32258064516129,31,0.026595215410543986,1.2445187920879555 | |
| 592 | +house,52007,ridge_panel,0.03829931546001701,17.580645161290324,31,0.04669869629194173,0.8201367168921564 | |
| 593 | +condo,58012,ar2_cell,0.01897980371763681,16.580645161290324,31,0.02034696210739908,0.9328077389368555 | |
| 594 | +condo,59015,qanss,0.01817376526224907,5.0,31,0.02127217810570437,0.8543443540168354 | |
| 595 | +plex,74005,no_change,0.06013443296421019,16.806451612903224,31,0.06013443296421019,1.0 | |
| 596 | +condo,75017,qanss,0.01895741499693713,26.06451612903226,31,0.027149973464123366,0.6982480119911689 | |
| 597 | +house,58227,no_change,0.04729289736931875,126.61290322580645,31,0.04729289736931875,1.0 | |
| 598 | +condo,23072,ar2_cell,0.03697835175421757,7.483870967741935,31,0.046714921979306503,0.7915747300316164 | |
| 599 | +house,60013,no_change,0.04043187610407731,71.61290322580645,31,0.04043187610407731,1.0 | |
| 600 | +condo,71083,ar2_cell,0.019314207687735136,9.064516129032258,31,0.018305539174260373,1.0551018193931738 | |
| 601 | +condo,58033,qanss,0.053470190510867176,16.161290322580644,31,0.04998527906843036,1.0697187553492686 | |
| 602 | +plex,56083,ridge_panel,0.033329068713541174,12.935483870967742,31,0.04250873582724773,0.7840522204421222 | |
| 603 | +condo,71105,lightgbm_panel,0.011364655206264907,0.9354838709677419,31,0.017236888695607726,0.6593217260352112 | |
| 604 | +house,77043,qanss,0.03308550490119207,20.93548387096774,31,0.048336064932705126,0.6844890031336781 | |
| 605 | +plex,29073,ar2_cell,0.035625353279422275,4.0,31,0.04422468206153482,0.8055536324682375 | |
| 606 | +house,59010,ar2_cell,0.06877673688979866,30.032258064516128,31,0.07093713073413009,0.9695449502683084 | |
| 607 | +plex,67015,ridge_panel,0.041237501239690555,2.096774193548387,31,0.05144541426491628,0.8015777854822891 | |
| 608 | +house,58033,ar2_cell,0.04007266413128073,37.61290322580645,31,0.04492332877735862,0.892023481382737 | |
| 609 | +condo,89008,qanss,0.01879102622493382,1.032258064516129,31,0.027446325447215727,0.6846463385808195 | |
| 610 | +house,71083,qanss,0.04747449290386615,38.74193548387097,31,0.04653390370965805,1.0202129870744732 | |
| 611 | +house,43027,no_change,0.06012064179280478,135.5483870967742,31,0.06012064179280478,1.0 | |
| 612 | +condo,31084,no_change,0.02830470765268615,0.45161290322580644,31,0.02830470765268615,1.0 | |
| 613 | +condo,67015,no_change,0.01835236067676886,9.193548387096774,31,0.01835236067676886,1.0 | |
| 614 | +plex,62037,ridge_panel,0.024170048691322502,1.8387096774193548,31,0.045379686247517696,0.5326182415517389 | |
| 615 | +house,58007,ar2_cell,0.039406875205658116,53.25806451612903,31,0.04274583538565665,0.9218880588044627 | |
| 616 | +house,39062,ar2_cell,0.03428606859573265,42.645161290322584,31,0.04222309311293329,0.8120217176896151 | |
| 617 | +condo,71083,qanss,0.014236499970749114,9.064516129032258,31,0.018305539174260373,0.777715413636503 | |
| 618 | +house,23027,qanss,0.03014504369779495,331.4193548387097,31,0.050999907884849545,0.5910803557892325 | |
| 619 | +house,66023,lightgbm_panel,0.03670361613554775,293.7096774193548,31,0.04990598058484665,0.7354552641871616 | |
| 620 | +house,59015,no_change,0.09469235203782474,14.096774193548388,31,0.09469235203782474,1.0 | |
| 621 | +condo,58033,lightgbm_panel,0.050499473429866854,16.161290322580644,31,0.04998527906843036,1.0102869158884271 | |
| 622 | +plex,72015,lightgbm_panel,0.03322024671601273,2.3870967741935485,31,0.04335487778304856,0.7662401190991618 | |
| 623 | +plex,59020,ridge_panel,0.03172946586590319,1.935483870967742,31,0.04978100303484061,0.6373810074436718 | |
| 624 | +plex,73005,qanss,0.10815287918144662,1.8064516129032258,31,0.11262191222002997,0.9603182635555665 | |
| 625 | +house,63048,ar2_cell,0.05951135602726345,31.580645161290324,31,0.06289317944714591,0.9462290911413618 | |
| 626 | +house,58227,ridge_panel,0.03614993937150105,126.61290322580645,31,0.04729289736931875,0.7643841122526215 | |
| 627 | +plex,74005,ar2_cell,0.047765035258120536,16.806451612903224,31,0.06013443296421019,0.7943042430706636 | |
| 628 | +plex,25213,ar2_cell,0.03478389611436316,21.096774193548388,31,0.042253739630389246,0.8232146176559078 | |
| 629 | +house,75045,ridge_panel,0.06958223062852711,20.387096774193548,31,0.09293699871561867,0.7487032246591514 | |
| 630 | +plex,36033,lightgbm_panel,0.03423153679304246,16.06451612903226,31,0.04814805015467382,0.7109641342292142 | |
| 631 | +condo,74005,ridge_panel,0.02443218778565964,14.193548387096774,31,0.023803078624137133,1.0264297392558528 | |
| 632 | +plex,58012,ridge_panel,0.03277262609364752,1.3870967741935485,31,0.03890905819338008,0.8422878274453685 | |
| 633 | +plex,66023,ridge_panel,0.03269347158688563,327.3225806451613,31,0.03683169795933435,0.8876449742551182 | |
| 634 | +condo,70052,qanss,0.01686936581727029,3.4193548387096775,31,0.017722565754334185,0.9518579900398881 | |
| 635 | +house,62037,lightgbm_panel,0.024580991338807825,17.93548387096774,31,0.03876282944562176,0.6341382115382249 | |
| 636 | +condo,67035,qanss,0.0454088274116719,6.548387096774194,31,0.05125393045448844,0.8859579550097767 | |
| 637 | +plex,53052,lightgbm_panel,0.0338502352836336,8.0,31,0.042374739526830324,0.7988305217121328 | |
| 638 | +plex,60013,qanss,0.0305600865526451,5.516129032258065,31,0.038276934681138734,0.7983943021357932 | |
| 639 | +plex,86042,qanss,0.02778599286306506,8.741935483870968,31,0.0421136533245558,0.659785857306839 | |
| 640 | +condo,10043,ridge_panel,0.018665138247028784,5.129032258064516,31,0.020513984828815956,0.9098738447349293 | |
| 641 | +plex,57005,qanss,0.07291866180619491,2.129032258064516,31,0.08347570427522993,0.8735315555502579 | |
| 642 | +plex,47017,ridge_panel,0.036099974167908964,10.741935483870968,31,0.06004426134857524,0.6012227206583092 | |
| 643 | +plex,49058,ar2_cell,0.036251378870331835,14.516129032258064,31,0.04457630667672722,0.8132432131094043 | |
| 644 | +condo,60013,lightgbm_panel,0.02398203169022957,26.419354838709676,31,0.028624259866592363,0.8378218966010443 | |
| 645 | +house,77022,ridge_panel,0.033332158948547144,21.677419354838708,31,0.044004152441317654,0.7574775810759611 | |
| 646 | +plex,77043,lightgbm_panel,0.02956290871758763,3.7419354838709675,31,0.03987415489031853,0.7414052736391793 | |
| 647 | +condo,67020,lightgbm_panel,0.010132972990553999,8.67741935483871,31,0.019298102869673456,0.5250761206417727 | |
| 648 | +condo,54048,qanss,0.02344852353424747,11.838709677419354,31,0.026008798810985268,0.901561187221902 | |
| 649 | +plex,49058,qanss,0.03678525144236163,14.516129032258064,31,0.04457630667672722,0.8252198126043222 | |
| 650 | +house,64015,ridge_panel,0.036881129259373494,45.25806451612903,31,0.05584029507055853,0.6604751857555791 | |
| 651 | +condo,75045,lightgbm_panel,0.02207013108766616,0.03225806451612903,31,0.027567478140892183,0.800585783540659 | |
| 652 | +house,58033,ridge_panel,0.0329563302992095,37.61290322580645,31,0.04492332877735862,0.7336128287051495 | |
| 653 | +plex,71083,ridge_panel,0.02832465024896774,1.6129032258064515,31,0.03995544215767985,0.7089059392006615 | |
| 654 | +house,62037,ridge_panel,0.028834692798637214,17.93548387096774,31,0.03876282944562176,0.7438748205697372 | |
| 655 | +plex,57040,lightgbm_panel,0.07185417950114913,1.8064516129032258,31,0.08351832822287102,0.8603402514164822 | |
| 656 | +house,71105,no_change,0.062278506108098805,23.774193548387096,31,0.062278506108098805,1.0 | |
| 657 | +condo,75028,ridge_panel,0.14428598589641123,0.12903225806451613,31,0.1505321778372725,0.9585059352053387 | |
| 658 | +plex,81017,ridge_panel,0.0272511140637625,44.61290322580645,31,0.034448956494260115,0.7910577514388013 | |
| 659 | +condo,53052,lightgbm_panel,0.012641866813453733,2.3225806451612905,31,0.020011209271961664,0.6317392738062387 | |
| 660 | +plex,73010,ar2_cell,0.04118314757438466,6.193548387096774,31,0.04264331680898908,0.9657585445066361 | |
| 661 | +house,75028,ridge_panel,0.044563052978393074,22.032258064516128,31,0.05830042237291534,0.7643692989623306 | |
| 662 | +house,67015,ar2_cell,0.05400084962320104,22.06451612903226,31,0.058004210395505955,0.9309815486667656 | |
| 663 | +condo,60013,qanss,0.02545538352734965,26.419354838709676,31,0.028624259866592363,0.889294034011299 | |
| 664 | +condo,29073,qanss,0.01939329955025572,2.774193548387097,31,0.027267913551409163,0.7112131815180082 | |
| 665 | +condo,67035,no_change,0.05125393045448844,6.548387096774194,31,0.05125393045448844,1.0 | |
| 666 | +plex,66097,lightgbm_panel,0.06682727956428632,0.3225806451612903,31,0.05119406630797862,1.3053715866651376 | |
| 667 | +plex,86042,no_change,0.0421136533245558,8.741935483870968,31,0.0421136533245558,1.0 | |
| 668 | +house,81017,lightgbm_panel,0.02999525987252597,239.4516129032258,31,0.03579933680374744,0.837871942627331 | |
| 669 | +condo,74005,no_change,0.023803078624137133,14.193548387096774,31,0.023803078624137133,1.0 | |
| 670 | +house,43027,ar2_cell,0.05352578984644654,135.5483870967742,31,0.06012064179280478,0.8903063615141329 | |
| 671 | +house,58007,no_change,0.04274583538565665,53.25806451612903,31,0.04274583538565665,1.0 | |
| 672 | +house,23027,lightgbm_panel,0.03361049946588253,331.4193548387097,31,0.050999907884849545,0.6590305916193064 | |
| 673 | +house,75045,lightgbm_panel,0.06538581028437597,20.387096774193548,31,0.09293699871561867,0.70354983685725 | |
| 674 | +house,75045,no_change,0.09293699871561867,20.387096774193548,31,0.09293699871561867,1.0 | |
| 675 | +house,39062,qanss,0.02778650153641849,42.645161290322584,31,0.04222309311293329,0.6580877782236009 | |
| 676 | +house,77022,qanss,0.0319390386123828,21.677419354838708,31,0.044004152441317654,0.7258187430146632 | |
| 677 | +house,52007,no_change,0.04669869629194173,17.580645161290324,31,0.04669869629194173,1.0 | |
| 678 | +condo,93042,no_change,0.02357619042804361,1.0,31,0.02357619042804361,1.0 | |
| 679 | +condo,59010,ar2_cell,0.019378850595468268,6.354838709677419,31,0.02215047220188633,0.87487302387251 | |
| 680 | +condo,73015,ridge_panel,0.027718117463697484,12.0,31,0.02113681356166819,1.311366889944308 | |
| 681 | +plex,25213,qanss,0.03117180461704999,21.096774193548388,31,0.042253739630389246,0.7377288942877606 | |
| 682 | +house,74005,qanss,0.045114897758494026,58.16129032258065,31,0.057871954942973355,0.7795640876993001 | |
| 683 | +condo,43027,ar2_cell,0.023657716692318812,21.032258064516128,31,0.027732303052543164,0.853074360520855 | |
| 684 | +house,57040,ridge_panel,0.049666722341460044,25.806451612903224,31,0.05883188748045653,0.844214327782003 | |
| 685 | +house,46078,lightgbm_panel,0.03879995566614538,16.483870967741936,31,0.06231486181034645,0.6226436926753038 | |
| 686 | +plex,81017,lightgbm_panel,0.023532084643007708,44.61290322580645,31,0.034448956494260115,0.6831000714616312 | |
| 687 | +plex,72005,ridge_panel,0.0683874060669826,3.7419354838709675,31,0.08304598225275957,0.8234884363079482 | |
| 688 | +plex,36033,ridge_panel,0.02922000296912988,16.06451612903226,31,0.04814805015467382,0.6068782198918068 | |
| 689 | +house,60028,ar2_cell,0.04698666328076065,21.06451612903226,31,0.04802941077653713,0.9782893964569336 | |
| 690 | +plex,77022,ar2_cell,0.033582983079667866,4.612903225806452,31,0.04267808014544396,0.7868906699931059 | |
| 691 | +house,66023,ridge_panel,0.040096754896490595,293.7096774193548,31,0.04990598058484665,0.803445888180093 | |
| 692 | +condo,73015,ar2_cell,0.02437561211743557,12.0,31,0.02113681356166819,1.1532302182785477 | |
| 693 | +house,72015,no_change,0.04921084363839667,19.612903225806452,31,0.04921084363839667,1.0 | |
| 694 | +condo,64008,ridge_panel,0.03761885963370615,29.161290322580644,31,0.022350951288172907,1.683098815289008 | |
| 695 | +plex,52007,lightgbm_panel,0.023129147239024088,2.064516129032258,31,0.03415381944202661,0.6772052911471285 | |
| 696 | +condo,60028,qanss,0.03171724622806355,3.7096774193548385,31,0.030911044899383993,1.0260813353706988 | |
| 697 | +condo,66097,qanss,0.02418385933301323,7.645161290322581,31,0.02179156434253552,1.1097807827319734 | |
| 698 | +condo,60028,lightgbm_panel,0.021718675951608597,3.7096774193548385,31,0.030911044899383993,0.7026186278174444 | |
| 699 | +plex,37067,ridge_panel,0.025613735057366648,28.258064516129032,31,0.049867401931253656,0.513636846224259 | |
| 700 | +house,75005,qanss,0.042682422079850374,21.225806451612904,31,0.05345600043508866,0.7984589518940799 | |
| 701 | +condo,23027,ar2_cell,0.03675675421935796,206.67741935483872,31,0.04315247707704911,0.851787816345478 | |
| 702 | +house,75017,ridge_panel,0.03135788844043301,65.12903225806451,31,0.0515436228550365,0.6083757156268446 | |
| 703 | +condo,47017,lightgbm_panel,0.01841340688048405,14.258064516129032,31,0.02264416872940787,0.8131632960573487 | |
| 704 | +plex,73005,ridge_panel,0.08711363942772953,1.8064516129032258,31,0.11262191222002997,0.7735052416579039 | |
| 705 | +plex,36033,qanss,0.03754595657491275,16.06451612903226,31,0.04814805015467382,0.7798022236476401 | |
| 706 | +house,58012,qanss,0.03820421487633402,14.35483870967742,31,0.04487488781505725,0.8513495350402867 | |
| 707 | +house,67035,ar2_cell,0.048806506125822935,24.70967741935484,31,0.054086779656309564,0.9023740447473535 | |
| 708 | +condo,43027,no_change,0.027732303052543164,21.032258064516128,31,0.027732303052543164,1.0 | |
| 709 | +condo,77022,lightgbm_panel,0.029968356217720583,3.032258064516129,31,0.03368421633122685,0.8896854218911577 | |
| 710 | +condo,23072,no_change,0.046714921979306503,7.483870967741935,31,0.046714921979306503,1.0 | |
| 711 | +plex,43027,lightgbm_panel,0.023870926800498928,28.741935483870968,31,0.03619729110186907,0.6594672162985793 | |
| 712 | +house,29073,no_change,0.05437088358660437,29.548387096774192,31,0.05437088358660437,1.0 | |
| 713 | +plex,93042,ar2_cell,0.03588563617344519,7.225806451612903,31,0.048276651651072366,0.7433331630539473 | |
| 714 | +plex,67020,no_change,0.049477669192032364,0.6774193548387096,31,0.049477669192032364,1.0 | |
| 715 | +plex,64015,qanss,0.041767409842837784,6.741935483870968,31,0.05138163816712156,0.8128859128038507 | |
| 716 | +condo,64008,qanss,0.024916769058505848,29.161290322580644,31,0.022350951288172907,1.1147968038251086 | |
| 717 | +condo,77022,no_change,0.03368421633122685,3.032258064516129,31,0.03368421633122685,1.0 | |
| 718 | +house,67015,lightgbm_panel,0.03779792961082053,22.06451612903226,31,0.058004210395505955,0.6516411369638958 | |
| 719 | +plex,54048,no_change,0.0473858363588674,9.35483870967742,31,0.0473858363588674,1.0 | |
| 720 | +condo,66023,qanss,0.013887094310254897,650.0322580645161,31,0.01999067162592292,0.6946787266640305 | |
| 721 | +plex,46078,no_change,0.05068820948551821,1.032258064516129,31,0.05068820948551821,1.0 | |
| 722 | +plex,73015,ridge_panel,0.03453197033130713,8.419354838709678,31,0.043195280421150034,0.7994385033416516 | |
| 723 | +plex,71105,ridge_panel,0.033080826396225345,0.6774193548387096,31,0.039506321886504735,0.8373552590205994 | |
| 724 | +plex,75005,ar2_cell,0.047285350824585744,3.3870967741935485,31,0.04858681867096674,0.973213561167801 | |
| 725 | +plex,71083,qanss,0.03909805039567655,1.6129032258064515,31,0.03995544215767985,0.9785413021180019 | |
| 726 | +condo,77043,qanss,0.033283907519923946,2.870967741935484,31,0.03229926382975352,1.0304850195769288 | |
| 727 | +plex,31084,no_change,0.04394431158707675,6.580645161290323,31,0.04394431158707675,1.0 | |
| 728 | +plex,75017,ridge_panel,0.03714707255742044,22.225806451612904,31,0.04485191596319712,0.8282159582190686 | |
| 729 | +plex,65005,ar2_cell,0.024214393706548685,32.354838709677416,31,0.03666756988636981,0.6603762884092774 | |
| 730 | +house,73015,ar2_cell,0.028237981811138645,55.12903225806452,31,0.03660299678554128,0.7714663904867227 | |
| 731 | +condo,70052,no_change,0.017722565754334185,3.4193548387096775,31,0.017722565754334185,1.0 | |
| 732 | +plex,64008,lightgbm_panel,0.03721714297727719,14.32258064516129,31,0.05117722509265536,0.7272208078866387 | |
| 733 | +condo,58007,ridge_panel,0.02603280016175309,52.70967741935484,31,0.0163216874623934,1.5949821500831298 | |
| 734 | +plex,43027,ar2_cell,0.034019030504392596,28.741935483870968,31,0.03619729110186907,0.9398225521532467 | |
| 735 | +plex,70052,lightgbm_panel,0.03076191562510301,12.612903225806452,31,0.04570453322970466,0.6730604920631806 | |
| 736 | +house,93042,no_change,0.06864221092399593,28.0,31,0.06864221092399593,1.0 | |
| 737 | +condo,36033,no_change,0.04732516642857713,1.6129032258064515,31,0.04732516642857713,1.0 | |
| 738 | +house,37067,qanss,0.026841576629265597,105.90322580645162,31,0.042348025499698155,0.6338330137601556 | |
| 739 | +plex,93042,qanss,0.031393299127965714,7.225806451612903,31,0.048276651651072366,0.6502791319262585 | |
| 740 | +condo,10043,no_change,0.020513984828815956,5.129032258064516,31,0.020513984828815956,1.0 | |
| 741 | +condo,47017,ridge_panel,0.023448915022591534,14.258064516129032,31,0.02264416872940787,1.0355387871729884 | |
| 742 | +house,71083,ar2_cell,0.044400412346342656,38.74193548387097,31,0.04653390370965805,0.9541518937111526 | |
| 743 | +house,57005,no_change,0.07481395194669913,29.193548387096776,31,0.07481395194669913,1.0 | |
| 744 | +house,66097,no_change,0.043875596271610716,23.129032258064516,31,0.043875596271610716,1.0 | |
| 745 | +condo,71083,no_change,0.018305539174260373,9.064516129032258,31,0.018305539174260373,1.0 | |
| 746 | +condo,59015,ridge_panel,0.02646544658358893,5.0,31,0.02127217810570437,1.2441343078305613 | |
| 747 | +condo,46078,qanss,0.03349513183653035,5.903225806451613,31,0.02451927636475571,1.3660734247718924 | |
| 748 | +condo,67015,lightgbm_panel,0.011173139491401302,9.193548387096774,31,0.01835236067676886,0.6088121135034524 | |
| 749 | +house,46078,ridge_panel,0.04174023295749047,16.483870967741936,31,0.06231486181034645,0.6698278989131953 | |
| 750 | +house,73010,qanss,0.02783043374110182,14.67741935483871,31,0.04004584204120924,0.6949643788851503 | |
| 751 | +condo,58227,ar2_cell,0.019615831823368103,90.7741935483871,31,0.017898659666376982,1.0959385892015627 | |
| 752 | +house,47017,lightgbm_panel,0.04178589140693417,57.516129032258064,31,0.06052674791096199,0.6903706683267272 | |
| 753 | +house,59015,ar2_cell,0.07830748848503105,14.096774193548388,31,0.09469235203782474,0.8269674033838681 | |
| 754 | +house,93042,ar2_cell,0.06636313843368183,28.0,31,0.06864221092399593,0.966797798910679 | |
| 755 | +condo,94068,lightgbm_panel,0.010078777769982764,9.0,31,0.02395382559589923,0.42075858528869803 | |
| 756 | +condo,45072,lightgbm_panel,0.01803809547474377,8.451612903225806,31,0.021456874458969384,0.840667428484837 | |
| 757 | +plex,58037,ridge_panel,0.030317000605999466,0.3225806451612903,31,0.03850021495403664,0.7874501646859199 | |
| 758 | +condo,52007,qanss,0.0204442899216897,0.4838709677419355,31,0.02323295529710769,0.8799694081206642 | |
| 759 | +plex,53052,ridge_panel,0.032845071329355616,8.0,31,0.042374739526830324,0.7751096926167339 | |
| 760 | +plex,54048,qanss,0.03768338666698188,9.35483870967742,31,0.0473858363588674,0.7952457857152523 | |
| 761 | +house,66023,qanss,0.04329760109339727,293.7096774193548,31,0.04990598058484665,0.8675834155745266 | |
| 762 | +condo,23072,ridge_panel,0.03559868484503895,7.483870967741935,31,0.046714921979306503,0.7620409782726008 | |
| 763 | +house,75045,ar2_cell,0.08156134418556678,20.387096774193548,31,0.09293699871561867,0.87759821505684 | |
| 764 | +house,37067,ar2_cell,0.037712273716188856,105.90322580645162,31,0.042348025499698155,0.8905320442025723 | |
| 765 | +condo,75017,ridge_panel,0.028429821691579683,26.06451612903226,31,0.027149973464123366,1.0471399439541824 | |
| 766 | +plex,71105,qanss,0.03705640515041271,0.6774193548387096,31,0.039506321886504735,0.937986716578419 | |
| 767 | +house,10043,ar2_cell,0.08244613691349638,43.354838709677416,31,0.08409389427762744,0.9804057431483533 | |
| 768 | +house,36033,no_change,0.05185831818869241,45.45161290322581,31,0.05185831818869241,1.0 | |
| 769 | +house,94068,ridge_panel,0.030347969587730974,118.25806451612904,31,0.049232221755305894,0.6164249449997712 | |
| 770 | +house,66097,ridge_panel,0.03217350572343949,23.129032258064516,31,0.043875596271610716,0.7332893101730231 | |
| 771 | +house,23027,no_change,0.050999907884849545,331.4193548387097,31,0.050999907884849545,1.0 | |
| 772 | +house,57040,lightgbm_panel,0.039051878483587495,25.806451612903224,31,0.05883188748045653,0.6637876185182774 | |
| 773 | +house,36033,ar2_cell,0.04722667547545266,45.45161290322581,31,0.05185831818869241,0.910686600047711 | |
| 774 | +plex,73015,lightgbm_panel,0.036133285682099184,8.419354838709678,31,0.043195280421150034,0.8365100383607411 | |
| 775 | +condo,77043,no_change,0.03229926382975352,2.870967741935484,31,0.03229926382975352,1.0 | |
| 776 | +house,81017,qanss,0.0340503466043641,239.4516129032258,31,0.03579933680374744,0.9511446201092683 | |
| 777 | +house,53052,qanss,0.03057432528905002,34.0,31,0.039846841615424185,0.7672960779208936 | |
| 778 | +condo,46078,lightgbm_panel,0.022994826517623163,5.903225806451613,31,0.02451927636475571,0.937826474792551 | |
| 779 | +house,75017,lightgbm_panel,0.028544907112887884,65.12903225806451,31,0.0515436228550365,0.5538009463007443 | |
| 780 | +plex,97007,lightgbm_panel,0.026897253663988704,3.193548387096774,31,0.03222354310206974,0.8347081380464668 | |
| 781 | +house,86042,lightgbm_panel,0.031084112641289633,31.129032258064516,31,0.048913991190868616,0.635485101184965 | |
| 782 | +condo,36033,qanss,0.044722962251642046,1.6129032258064515,31,0.04732516642857713,0.9450143681826811 | |
| 783 | +condo,64008,no_change,0.022350951288172907,29.161290322580644,31,0.022350951288172907,1.0 | |
| 784 | +plex,59020,ar2_cell,0.039580900826147285,1.935483870967742,31,0.04978100303484061,0.795100508490066 | |
| 785 | +condo,58037,no_change,0.018184980073822334,6.354838709677419,31,0.018184980073822334,1.0 | |
| 786 | +plex,77022,no_change,0.04267808014544396,4.612903225806452,31,0.04267808014544396,1.0 | |
| 787 | +condo,58227,qanss,0.013813870331319719,90.7741935483871,31,0.017898659666376982,0.7717823897880673 | |
| 788 | +plex,63048,ar2_cell,0.03488490708853806,6.709677419354839,31,0.03830553493100908,0.9107014730734917 | |
| 789 | +house,56083,qanss,0.032708127083124414,83.19354838709677,31,0.05205309160046616,0.6283608922631504 | |
| 790 | +house,66023,no_change,0.04990598058484665,293.7096774193548,31,0.04990598058484665,1.0 | |
| 791 | +plex,64008,ridge_panel,0.035594518696422515,14.32258064516129,31,0.05117722509265536,0.695514823869003 | |
| 792 | +house,64008,ridge_panel,0.031119350773442217,103.93548387096774,31,0.049997097642969016,0.6224231453526876 | |
| 793 | +plex,71083,lightgbm_panel,0.027208328911047533,1.6129032258064515,31,0.03995544215767985,0.680966783039787 | |
| 794 | +condo,23072,lightgbm_panel,0.036284128143438614,7.483870967741935,31,0.046714921979306503,0.7767138765534392 | |
| 795 | +plex,66142,qanss,0.032805322679169954,0.22580645161290322,31,0.03464322033434304,0.9469478403729369 | |
| 796 | +condo,86042,qanss,0.01298772942623786,1.3548387096774193,31,0.014319056544310114,0.9070241035816513 | |
| 797 | +condo,64008,lightgbm_panel,0.025223896282064773,29.161290322580644,31,0.022350951288172907,1.1285379291847903 | |
| 798 | +house,86042,ar2_cell,0.046905335283968924,31.129032258064516,31,0.048913991190868616,0.9589349415576892 | |
| 799 | +house,65005,no_change,0.041379745530324814,243.29032258064515,31,0.041379745530324814,1.0 | |
| 800 | +condo,93042,ridge_panel,0.018282638954457454,1.0,31,0.02357619042804361,0.7754704480461976 | |
| 801 | +house,60013,qanss,0.028245641554379218,71.61290322580645,31,0.04043187610407731,0.6985983406179566 | |
| 802 | +house,58033,no_change,0.04492332877735862,37.61290322580645,31,0.04492332877735862,1.0 | |
| 803 | +house,73015,no_change,0.03660299678554128,55.12903225806452,31,0.03660299678554128,1.0 | |
| 804 | +house,86042,ridge_panel,0.03152093117292164,31.129032258064516,31,0.048913991190868616,0.64441544035781 | |
| 805 | +condo,97007,qanss,0.030844965667581725,0.41935483870967744,31,0.026003932843309957,1.1861654101878372 | |
| 806 | +plex,64015,lightgbm_panel,0.03666063524018422,6.741935483870968,31,0.05138163816712156,0.7134968161377712 | |
| 807 | +condo,75028,qanss,0.15802158535457295,0.12903225806451613,31,0.1505321778372725,1.0497528676253964 | |
| 808 | +house,72005,no_change,0.0538945005594945,39.29032258064516,31,0.0538945005594945,1.0 | |
| 809 | +condo,25213,ridge_panel,0.017563666845438322,20.225806451612904,31,0.02891749372381526,0.6073716834932208 | |
| 810 | +house,71083,no_change,0.04653390370965805,38.74193548387097,31,0.04653390370965805,1.0 | |
| 811 | +condo,77022,ridge_panel,0.03955962927227204,3.032258064516129,31,0.03368421633122685,1.1744262916278212 | |
| 812 | +condo,57005,no_change,0.01924783452678323,13.419354838709678,31,0.01924783452678323,1.0 | |
| 813 | +condo,71105,ar2_cell,0.01972965449943234,0.9354838709677419,31,0.017236888695607726,1.1446180832193813 | |
| 814 | +plex,72015,ridge_panel,0.038251123569239306,2.3870967741935485,31,0.04335487778304856,0.8822795847943832 | |
| 815 | +house,67015,ridge_panel,0.04507684286253872,22.06451612903226,31,0.058004210395505955,0.777130531648978 | |
| 816 | +plex,58037,qanss,0.03825116825218294,0.3225806451612903,31,0.03850021495403664,0.9935312906135454 | |
| 817 | +condo,89008,ridge_panel,0.020327667904635166,1.032258064516129,31,0.027446325447215727,0.7406334936794715 | |
| 818 | +plex,75045,qanss,0.041525079586932884,2.6451612903225805,31,0.04524363309448174,0.9178104574452842 | |
| 819 | +house,25213,no_change,0.057400505327128745,129.74193548387098,31,0.057400505327128745,1.0 | |
| 820 | +plex,39062,ar2_cell,0.03487548702905697,5.903225806451613,31,0.04305233836240001,0.8100718417542603 | |
| 821 | +house,60028,lightgbm_panel,0.03681700496227864,21.06451612903226,31,0.04802941077653713,0.7665512519729709 | |
| 822 | +plex,54048,ridge_panel,0.04362907161539256,9.35483870967742,31,0.0473858363588674,0.920719670008065 | |
| 823 | +condo,72015,lightgbm_panel,0.03176942210026914,8.935483870967742,31,0.033215725578710484,0.956457266754144 | |
| 824 | +plex,67050,ar2_cell,0.047146332542790645,3.4838709677419355,31,0.05026861830629679,0.9378879732782502 | |
| 825 | +house,66097,qanss,0.03569107432683513,23.129032258064516,31,0.043875596271610716,0.8134607244056692 | |
| 826 | +condo,45072,ar2_cell,0.021010320863608406,8.451612903225806,31,0.021456874458969384,0.9791883204511033 | |
| 827 | +plex,37067,no_change,0.049867401931253656,28.258064516129032,31,0.049867401931253656,1.0 | |
| 828 | +house,57040,no_change,0.05883188748045653,25.806451612903224,31,0.05883188748045653,1.0 | |
| 829 | +condo,31084,qanss,0.02561844374234267,0.45161290322580644,31,0.02830470765268615,0.9050948010731865 | |
| 830 | +plex,23027,ridge_panel,0.01745131548637399,86.58064516129032,31,0.035919313188354667,0.48584769410434747 | |
| 831 | +condo,73005,qanss,0.028239358814811884,4.064516129032258,31,0.03159246505716242,0.8938637350303773 | |
| 832 | +plex,86042,ridge_panel,0.02780235028054371,8.741935483870968,31,0.0421136533245558,0.6601742685746194 | |
| 833 | +plex,86042,ar2_cell,0.032240557019089906,8.741935483870968,31,0.0421136533245558,0.7655606786384156 | |
| 834 | +condo,67035,ar2_cell,0.053639106707259666,6.548387096774194,31,0.05125393045448844,1.0465364554800176 | |
| 835 | +condo,73010,ar2_cell,0.023127032041962797,12.419354838709678,31,0.022341556055840858,1.0351576221530276 | |
| 836 | +plex,67015,qanss,0.04221282812200315,2.096774193548387,31,0.05144541426491628,0.8205362659658981 | |
| 837 | +condo,23072,qanss,0.03823079981470127,7.483870967741935,31,0.046714921979306503,0.8183851796142679 | |
| 838 | +plex,57005,lightgbm_panel,0.07102614241514354,2.129032258064516,31,0.08347570427522993,0.8508600560105655 | |
| 839 | +condo,75028,lightgbm_panel,0.1329150959766056,0.12903225806451613,31,0.1505321778372725,0.8829679998404647 | |
| 840 | +condo,72015,no_change,0.033215725578710484,8.935483870967742,31,0.033215725578710484,1.0 | |
| 841 | +condo,72005,qanss,0.02340422515650637,11.32258064516129,31,0.026595215410543986,0.8800163787065056 | |
| 842 | +house,97007,lightgbm_panel,0.02904330980256011,19.741935483870968,31,0.046568619400292464,0.6236669709469143 | |
| 843 | +condo,89008,no_change,0.027446325447215727,1.032258064516129,31,0.027446325447215727,1.0 | |
| 844 | +house,72005,qanss,0.04466377024812968,39.29032258064516,31,0.0538945005594945,0.8287259327846456 | |
| 845 | +house,23027,ridge_panel,0.03259705455153104,331.4193548387097,31,0.050999907884849545,0.6391590868189508 | |
| 846 | +condo,57035,ar2_cell,0.022862474268061306,7.870967741935484,31,0.01532486156195089,1.4918551907069142 | |
| 847 | +house,72015,lightgbm_panel,0.03131170924805687,19.612903225806452,31,0.04921084363839667,0.6362766198063299 | |
| 848 | +condo,93042,ar2_cell,0.011992070279625365,1.0,31,0.02357619042804361,0.5086517398231113 | |
| 849 | +plex,89008,qanss,0.027688489682001743,6.032258064516129,31,0.040821175723862846,0.6782874131137746 | |
| 850 | +condo,45072,ridge_panel,0.02407191493913954,8.451612903225806,31,0.021456874458969384,1.1218742499132728 | |
| 851 | +house,59020,no_change,0.07726397627349975,17.516129032258064,31,0.07726397627349975,1.0 | |
| 852 | +condo,46078,ar2_cell,0.030297338698031015,5.903225806451613,31,0.02451927636475571,1.2356538687079996 | |
| 853 | +house,58227,lightgbm_panel,0.030807620784467867,126.61290322580645,31,0.04729289736931875,0.6514217249978492 | |
| 854 | +plex,75005,lightgbm_panel,0.05145727270099172,3.3870967741935485,31,0.04858681867096674,1.059078863538358 | |
| 855 | +house,73015,lightgbm_panel,0.023716903334544077,55.12903225806452,31,0.03660299678554128,0.6479497696186615 | |
| 856 | +plex,58012,lightgbm_panel,0.029829395659212575,1.3870967741935485,31,0.03890905819338008,0.7666439909945623 | |
| 857 | +plex,67020,lightgbm_panel,0.041912729715739595,0.6774193548387096,31,0.049477669192032364,0.8471039642766561 | |
| 858 | +plex,67050,no_change,0.05026861830629679,3.4838709677419355,31,0.05026861830629679,1.0 | |
| 859 | +house,67050,ridge_panel,0.031002442270817627,42.193548387096776,31,0.04159016449971364,0.745427257712123 | |
| 860 | +house,72015,ar2_cell,0.050553755830428634,19.612903225806452,31,0.04921084363839667,1.0272889487914438 | |
| 861 | +plex,39062,ridge_panel,0.030277910620962373,5.903225806451613,31,0.04305233836240001,0.7032814423712174 | |
| 862 | +plex,75017,qanss,0.046838470053658425,22.225806451612904,31,0.04485191596319712,1.0442913986571132 | |
| 863 | +condo,71105,no_change,0.017236888695607726,0.9354838709677419,31,0.017236888695607726,1.0 | |
| 864 | +plex,60013,ridge_panel,0.030341684671938284,5.516129032258065,31,0.038276934681138734,0.7926884669500296 | |
| 865 | +condo,67050,ar2_cell,0.017614873111422402,2.2580645161290325,31,0.019021983400938594,0.9260271518559541 | |
| 866 | +house,53052,ridge_panel,0.03215555403041449,34.0,31,0.039846841615424185,0.8069787397645967 | |
| 867 | +condo,75005,qanss,0.021882950996460124,0.03225806451612903,31,0.02801200834396392,0.7811989318208061 | |
| 868 | +plex,67035,ar2_cell,0.045148124919342225,1.8387096774193548,31,0.05458335596662332,0.8271408769176714 | |
| 869 | +house,67035,qanss,0.049543020608782205,24.70967741935484,31,0.054086779656309564,0.9159913184626569 | |
| 870 | +plex,53052,ar2_cell,0.03414532976424549,8.0,31,0.042374739526830324,0.8057944460667602 | |
| 871 | +condo,73015,qanss,0.017204495761502323,12.0,31,0.02113681356166819,0.8139588169856803 | |
| 872 | +house,86042,no_change,0.048913991190868616,31.129032258064516,31,0.048913991190868616,1.0 | |
| 873 | +house,67015,no_change,0.058004210395505955,22.06451612903226,31,0.058004210395505955,1.0 | |
| 874 | +condo,75005,no_change,0.02801200834396392,0.03225806451612903,31,0.02801200834396392,1.0 | |
| 875 | +plex,58037,lightgbm_panel,0.032007781122127654,0.3225806451612903,31,0.03850021495403664,0.8313662965347088 | |
| 876 | +condo,86042,lightgbm_panel,0.016729099595267697,1.3548387096774193,31,0.014319056544310114,1.1683101846479718 | |
| 877 | +condo,31084,lightgbm_panel,0.025526890213194958,0.45161290322580644,31,0.02830470765268615,0.9018602321007342 | |
| 878 | +house,70052,qanss,0.036502570047882425,42.645161290322584,31,0.047289861099482314,0.7718899823176267 | |
| 879 | +house,45072,qanss,0.04531756666436213,27.838709677419356,31,0.056349940040470725,0.8042167681423422 | |
| 880 | +plex,46078,ridge_panel,0.0769026646412073,1.032258064516129,31,0.05068820948551821,1.517170667927788 | |
| 881 | +house,45072,ar2_cell,0.057947763972213885,27.838709677419356,31,0.056349940040470725,1.0283553794484181 | |
| 882 | +house,25213,qanss,0.03796580981004167,129.74193548387098,31,0.057400505327128745,0.6614194351368923 | |
| 883 | +condo,67035,ridge_panel,0.04810920741914317,6.548387096774194,31,0.05125393045448844,0.938644256011982 | |
| 884 | +plex,97007,ridge_panel,0.04149623579106052,3.193548387096774,31,0.03222354310206974,1.287761425229344 | |
| 885 | +condo,66023,ridge_panel,0.023373811770144217,650.0322580645161,31,0.01999067162592292,1.1692359420197873 | |
| 886 | +condo,37067,no_change,0.024895368597045987,13.612903225806452,31,0.024895368597045987,1.0 | |
| 887 | +house,64015,ar2_cell,0.04931259468517401,45.25806451612903,31,0.05584029507055853,0.8831005391870465 | |
| 888 | +condo,81017,qanss,0.02033241965770401,64.06451612903226,31,0.01714133948740538,1.186162824243886 | |
| 889 | +plex,67035,lightgbm_panel,0.04231335945718816,1.8387096774193548,31,0.05458335596662332,0.7752062640315112 | |
| 890 | +house,49058,ridge_panel,0.022957892837022934,71.29032258064517,31,0.038576338909586866,0.5951288661899824 | |
| 891 | +condo,66097,ridge_panel,0.036423341251656874,7.645161290322581,31,0.02179156434253552,1.6714422461429814 | |
| 892 | +plex,43027,no_change,0.03619729110186907,28.741935483870968,31,0.03619729110186907,1.0 | |
| 893 | +plex,57035,no_change,0.08399501363571772,0.8387096774193549,31,0.08399501363571772,1.0 | |
| 894 | +plex,71105,ar2_cell,0.03210551554971714,0.6774193548387096,31,0.039506321886504735,0.8126677963580383 | |
| 895 | +plex,73015,ar2_cell,0.03889675897299931,8.419354838709678,31,0.043195280421150034,0.9004863168790541 | |
| 896 | +house,56083,lightgbm_panel,0.03670606365042599,83.19354838709677,31,0.05205309160046616,0.7051658704955244 | |
| 897 | +plex,71105,lightgbm_panel,0.02952311631189131,0.6774193548387096,31,0.039506321886504735,0.7473010622630586 | |
| 898 | +plex,37067,lightgbm_panel,0.03455729394692007,28.258064516129032,31,0.049867401931253656,0.6929836447978615 | |
| 899 | +plex,93042,lightgbm_panel,0.03480026069327411,7.225806451612903,31,0.048276651651072366,0.72085075296437 | |
| 900 | +house,39062,no_change,0.04222309311293329,42.645161290322584,31,0.04222309311293329,1.0 | |
| 901 | +plex,59020,no_change,0.04978100303484061,1.935483870967742,31,0.04978100303484061,1.0 | |
| 902 | +house,97007,no_change,0.046568619400292464,19.741935483870968,31,0.046568619400292464,1.0 | |
| 903 | +plex,60028,qanss,0.05049684664561243,2.7419354838709675,31,0.046779150280574375,1.079473362443308 | |
| 904 | +house,70052,ar2_cell,0.03969464066625458,42.645161290322584,31,0.047289861099482314,0.8393900879249807 | |
| 905 | +plex,73015,no_change,0.043195280421150034,8.419354838709678,31,0.043195280421150034,1.0 | |
| 906 | +plex,58227,ridge_panel,0.03204843870198197,36.87096774193548,31,0.03785756266424333,0.8465531441159547 | |
| 907 | +house,59015,ridge_panel,0.07442664940449777,14.096774193548388,31,0.09469235203782474,0.7859837442285533 | |
| 908 | +condo,37067,ar2_cell,0.017047861906959325,13.612903225806452,31,0.024895368597045987,0.6847804578793091 | |
| 909 | +plex,54048,ar2_cell,0.03837176424024941,9.35483870967742,31,0.0473858363588674,0.8097728601780568 | |
| 910 | +condo,36033,lightgbm_panel,0.05635290883837328,1.6129032258064515,31,0.04732516642857713,1.190759866072965 | |
| 911 | +plex,67020,ar2_cell,0.04428755756679636,0.6774193548387096,31,0.049477669192032364,0.895101937702599 | |
| 912 | +plex,59020,qanss,0.04547590620797982,1.935483870967742,31,0.04978100303484061,0.9135192831721822 | |
| 913 | +house,97007,qanss,0.03402288979569675,19.741935483870968,31,0.046568619400292464,0.7305969177064132 | |
| 914 | +house,25213,lightgbm_panel,0.03762055344713439,129.74193548387098,31,0.057400505327128745,0.6554045688750076 | |
| 915 | +plex,10043,no_change,0.03459142469954136,5.129032258064516,31,0.03459142469954136,1.0 | |
| 916 | +plex,94068,no_change,0.04750220348743283,34.774193548387096,31,0.04750220348743283,1.0 | |
| 917 | +house,47017,qanss,0.045235264312290906,57.516129032258064,31,0.06052674791096199,0.7473599007637803 | |
| 918 | +house,59015,qanss,0.07434872224846903,14.096774193548388,31,0.09469235203782474,0.7851607933317627 | |
| 919 | +house,58012,lightgbm_panel,0.0353608459105456,14.35483870967742,31,0.04487488781505725,0.7879873941140121 | |
| 920 | +condo,67015,ar2_cell,0.0186124856023191,9.193548387096774,31,0.01835236067676886,1.0141739218257362 | |
| 921 | +house,66142,no_change,0.04282535405677127,32.38709677419355,31,0.04282535405677127,1.0 | |
| 922 | +plex,23027,ar2_cell,0.023721599023590004,86.58064516129032,31,0.035919313188354667,0.6604134911822518 | |
| 923 | +plex,75028,no_change,0.0861077084608662,6.0,31,0.0861077084608662,1.0 | |
| 924 | +plex,93042,ridge_panel,0.03064484072202915,7.225806451612903,31,0.048276651651072366,0.6347756042303825 | |
| 925 | +house,94068,lightgbm_panel,0.029863705211948897,118.25806451612904,31,0.049232221755305894,0.6065886150817559 | |
| 926 | +condo,10043,ar2_cell,0.01339946765518867,5.129032258064516,31,0.020513984828815956,0.6531869730334627 | |
| 927 | +house,25213,ridge_panel,0.03355606772654239,129.74193548387098,31,0.057400505327128745,0.5845953364923262 | |
| 928 | +house,63048,ridge_panel,0.04874484827918456,31.580645161290324,31,0.06289317944714591,0.7750418838365246 | |
| 929 | +condo,75005,ar2_cell,0.02319942330716182,0.03225806451612903,31,0.02801200834396392,0.8281956446068557 | |
| 930 | +condo,59020,no_change,0.022315331790274066,4.354838709677419,31,0.022315331790274066,1.0 | |
| 931 | +condo,89008,lightgbm_panel,0.016620609952174643,1.032258064516129,31,0.027446325447215727,0.6055677647683329 | |
| 932 | +plex,52007,no_change,0.03415381944202661,2.064516129032258,31,0.03415381944202661,1.0 | |
| 933 | +house,75028,no_change,0.05830042237291534,22.032258064516128,31,0.05830042237291534,1.0 | |
| 934 | +condo,66023,lightgbm_panel,0.015263683540365034,650.0322580645161,31,0.01999067162592292,0.763540306498349 | |
| 935 | +house,73005,qanss,0.05021439542418621,21.161290322580644,31,0.0458492500640935,1.0952064723848391 | |
| 936 | +plex,37067,ar2_cell,0.03762680714475115,28.258064516129032,31,0.049867401931253656,0.7545371462628596 | |
| 937 | +condo,54048,no_change,0.026008798810985268,11.838709677419354,31,0.026008798810985268,1.0 | |
| 938 | +plex,73010,qanss,0.043355319492792706,6.193548387096774,31,0.04264331680898908,1.0166967003761194 | |
| 939 | +condo,57035,qanss,0.019067255319590835,7.870967741935484,31,0.01532486156195089,1.2442040825302914 | |
| 940 | +plex,23072,qanss,0.03565046495276472,1.1935483870967742,31,0.03536485260469175,1.0080761639604594 | |
| 941 | +plex,72005,ar2_cell,0.07044932041656982,3.7419354838709675,31,0.08304598225275957,0.848317022756737 | |
| 942 | +plex,59010,lightgbm_panel,0.12651600056294515,1.3548387096774193,31,0.1398889974677805,0.9044027968824679 | |
| 943 | +plex,23027,qanss,0.026739558320076115,86.58064516129032,31,0.035919313188354667,0.7444340090763567 | |
| 944 | +house,64008,qanss,0.03326651912684149,103.93548387096774,31,0.049997097642969016,0.6653690053050447 | |
| 945 | +condo,63048,ridge_panel,0.11108421229351945,0.5483870967741935,31,0.10840198911434598,1.0247433022316976 | |
| 946 | +house,67050,no_change,0.04159016449971364,42.193548387096776,31,0.04159016449971364,1.0 | |
| 947 | +house,65005,qanss,0.030747302972810326,243.29032258064515,31,0.041379745530324814,0.7430520071777003 | |
| 948 | +condo,64015,no_change,0.02192500669747209,23.548387096774192,31,0.02192500669747209,1.0 | |
| 949 | +plex,31084,ar2_cell,0.034949362393569924,6.580645161290323,31,0.04394431158707675,0.7953102718270348 | |
| 950 | +plex,58033,lightgbm_panel,0.03343914315887629,1.4838709677419355,31,0.04098607539926355,0.8158659455224917 | |
| 951 | +plex,72005,qanss,0.0675849944778673,3.7419354838709675,31,0.08304598225275957,0.8138261797201091 | |
| 952 | +house,72005,ar2_cell,0.04861741294205251,39.29032258064516,31,0.0538945005594945,0.9020848590735788 | |
| 953 | +plex,89008,ridge_panel,0.030927187979514822,6.032258064516129,31,0.040821175723862846,0.7576260955520618 | |
| 954 | +house,71083,lightgbm_panel,0.03106692727633187,38.74193548387097,31,0.04653390370965805,0.6676191937424749 | |
| 955 | +plex,29073,qanss,0.03684820816007737,4.0,31,0.04422468206153482,0.8332045916985061 | |
| 956 | +house,25213,ar2_cell,0.05217574791966208,129.74193548387098,31,0.057400505327128745,0.9089771531158048 | |
| 957 | +plex,57040,ar2_cell,0.08305782092687408,1.8064516129032258,31,0.08351832822287102,0.9944861528505688 | |
| 958 | +house,67020,qanss,0.047460961541995875,23.258064516129032,31,0.05515306632914995,0.8605316929933127 | |
| 959 | +house,67020,ridge_panel,0.04763498764815535,23.258064516129032,31,0.05515306632914995,0.8636870226556909 | |
| 960 | +house,57035,qanss,0.07318952974661579,20.29032258064516,31,0.063868571135985,1.1459396765082654 | |
| 961 | +condo,23027,qanss,0.032551645479997296,206.67741935483872,31,0.04315247707704911,0.7543401372272571 | |
added
results/extra/municipal_mase_summary_b.csv
+5 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ | ||
| 1 | +model,median_mase,share_beating_no_change,p10,p90,cells | |
| 2 | +lightgbm_panel,0.7447898694637531,0.90625,0.6152097157122373,0.9722248213102505,192 | |
| 3 | +ridge_panel,0.7974971357451583,0.71875,0.6318962380233923,1.4354353421870432,192 | |
| 4 | +qanss,0.8237019852416398,0.828125,0.6806788666887754,1.079473362443308,192 | |
| 5 | +ar2_cell,0.9053572832387536,0.8020833333333334,0.7611567657338407,1.0777460391234608,192 | |
added
results/extra/raref_regimes.csv
+94 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,94 @@ | ||
| 1 | +origin,class,p_low,p_mid,p_high,mu_low,mu_high,prov_growth_last | |
| 2 | +2023-12,house,1.3960141289734638e-7,0.9999998603985871,1.3827470978060958e-19,-0.014761768231425818,0.02766309207691326,-0.010834278427879707 | |
| 3 | +2023-12,condo,0.0,0.9980060635647896,0.0019939364352105195,-0.020477093420909004,0.011146942416753586,-0.0028232284557639375 | |
| 4 | +2023-12,plex,0.9999992766874569,7.597031444322456e-8,6.473422287586151e-7,-0.0172677037583087,0.02620798158379756,-0.013600949302284726 | |
| 5 | +2024-01,house,2.5474746030864812e-8,0.9999999744734329,5.182125124725799e-11,-0.014761612121914834,0.027663525087305345,0.00776093056811844 | |
| 6 | +2024-01,condo,0.0,0.9979029603958421,0.002097039604157867,-0.020477093420909004,0.011424654497490621,0.007755996449460734 | |
| 7 | +2024-01,plex,1.9909416932094327e-18,0.9999995194264713,4.805735287779905e-7,-0.012860388642925828,0.026190370886960142,0.014984980721095775 | |
| 8 | +2024-02,house,7.489493229358726e-8,0.9999999251050677,5.012619112744628e-32,-0.014761687354515616,0.02766259384449226,-0.026792776869139612 | |
| 9 | +2024-02,condo,0.0,0.9996878147662267,0.00031218523377324933,-0.020477093420909004,0.011296269846594612,0.0016373314660749205 | |
| 10 | +2024-02,plex,1.3577382557025935e-17,0.9999999999999999,8.9006340900149e-17,-0.012860706409496048,0.025937751205164596,-0.03943049089483261 | |
| 11 | +2024-03,house,3.3580818691121328e-9,2.4693457165865627e-6,0.9999975272962015,-0.014661814397413497,0.03058249779240768,0.04236770550855373 | |
| 12 | +2024-03,condo,0.0,0.9980594040729359,0.0019405959270640408,-0.020477093420909004,0.011015187852222023,0.01361985770054569 | |
| 13 | +2024-03,plex,4.983912230271104e-38,3.6831200494317484e-9,0.99999999631688,-0.018382406245473343,0.030046665867391253,0.04564042937711868 | |
| 14 | +2024-04,house,9.350161070369228e-10,0.010938671920251794,0.9890613271447322,-0.014781641655815435,0.027670107126115975,0.02763480820864439 | |
| 15 | +2024-04,condo,0.0,0.9979751810458668,0.002024818954133175,-0.020477093420909004,0.011021676326393264,0.014130051406736899 | |
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added
results/extra/selection_rates.csv
+37 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@ | ||
| 1 | +class,dimension,quintile,stock_units,sales_2021_2026,annual_sale_rate_pct | |
| 2 | +condo,age_q,,1085,239,3.830895612101783 | |
| 3 | +condo,age_q,age1,79069,25263,5.556621706852628 | |
| 4 | +condo,age_q,age2,66819,27722,7.21533903725639 | |
| 5 | +condo,age_q,age3,61561,22143,6.25551326609238 | |
| 6 | +condo,age_q,age4,72745,25627,6.1267022684959676 | |
| 7 | +condo,age_q,age5,63120,21988,6.05830164765526 | |
| 8 | +condo,fa_q,,5736,1975,5.988114729246256 | |
| 9 | +condo,fa_q,fa1,67994,22523,5.760866368004338 | |
| 10 | +condo,fa_q,fa2,67942,24956,6.388057332788965 | |
| 11 | +condo,fa_q,fa3,67713,25896,6.651089412539754 | |
| 12 | +condo,fa_q,fa4,67494,26398,6.802021693393681 | |
| 13 | +condo,fa_q,fa5,67520,21234,5.469297341850401 | |
| 14 | +house,age_q,,27312,4034,2.5687068592241666 | |
| 15 | +house,age_q,age1,393295,108006,4.77597024470513 | |
| 16 | +house,age_q,age2,366413,77080,3.6584993958468583 | |
| 17 | +house,age_q,age3,400635,76077,3.3024530080236754 | |
| 18 | +house,age_q,age4,367585,81880,3.8739339200457037 | |
| 19 | +house,age_q,age5,344229,75581,3.8185399077737303 | |
| 20 | +house,fa_q,,26451,3669,2.412335853169026 | |
| 21 | +house,fa_q,fa1,375728,93206,4.314221758941251 | |
| 22 | +house,fa_q,fa2,375812,83785,3.877285543789471 | |
| 23 | +house,fa_q,fa3,373462,83503,3.8885511429717665 | |
| 24 | +house,fa_q,fa4,373891,82494,3.837156446316079 | |
| 25 | +house,fa_q,fa5,374125,76001,3.53292755560075 | |
| 26 | +plex,age_q,,8030,1784,3.863771725594239 | |
| 27 | +plex,age_q,age1,67391,17891,4.617053109272106 | |
| 28 | +plex,age_q,age2,66817,15368,4.000023425436511 | |
| 29 | +plex,age_q,age3,63909,15188,4.1330505943573295 | |
| 30 | +plex,age_q,age4,65980,17845,4.703665142269727 | |
| 31 | +plex,age_q,age5,64156,18247,4.946367143132094 | |
| 32 | +plex,fa_q,,8571,1877,3.808596226912795 | |
| 33 | +plex,fa_q,fa1,65585,20960,5.558004713431955 | |
| 34 | +plex,fa_q,fa2,65694,18252,4.831888558415103 | |
| 35 | +plex,fa_q,fa3,65385,15943,4.2405684058635975 | |
| 36 | +plex,fa_q,fa4,65518,15076,4.00182094001383 | |
| 37 | +plex,fa_q,fa5,65530,14215,3.7725834168220334 | |
added
results/extra/tests_holm_a.csv
+34 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ | ||
| 1 | +h,model,reference,n_origins,mean_sq_diff,dm_stat,dm_p,gw_stat,gw_p,boot_ci_lo,boot_ci_hi,dm_p_holm,dm_p_bonferroni | |
| 2 | +1-3,hedonic_ols,naive_mun_median,12,-0.10176270226777091,-120.54182491619301,0.0,NaN,NaN,-0.10323961159272235,-0.10011836279295769,0.0,0.0 | |
| 3 | +1-3,ridge,naive_mun_median,12,-0.10176280421045077,-120.5361689524081,0.0,NaN,NaN,-0.10323978441566739,-0.10011837130417145,0.0,0.0 | |
| 4 | +1-3,elastic_net,naive_mun_median,12,-0.10167200924053704,-105.19490171011431,0.0,NaN,NaN,-0.1032667295556599,-0.09983441978976014,0.0,0.0 | |
| 5 | +1-3,random_forest,naive_mun_median,12,-0.11164128615902626,-123.38123905196595,0.0,NaN,NaN,-0.11335182035496753,-0.1099478285491832,0.0,0.0 | |
| 6 | +1-3,xgboost,naive_mun_median,12,-0.11638854977178724,-131.10589822060308,0.0,NaN,NaN,-0.1180122532280134,-0.11485385850884962,0.0,0.0 | |
| 7 | +1-3,lightgbm,naive_mun_median,12,-0.11713160975562813,-132.28465797891917,0.0,NaN,NaN,-0.11876759682290643,-0.11550021093759738,0.0,0.0 | |
| 8 | +1-3,hshn_full,naive_mun_median,12,-0.10274567827562471,-61.234208834860084,2.6645352591003757e-15,NaN,NaN,-0.10544625770956502,-0.09944945357712975,1.3322676295501878e-14,2.930988785010413e-14 | |
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added
results/extra/tests_holm_b.csv
+73 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@ | ||
| 1 | +h,model,reference,n_origins,mean_sq_diff,dm_stat,dm_p,gw_stat,gw_p,boot_ci_lo,boot_ci_hi,dm_p_holm,dm_p_bonferroni | |
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| 34 | +6,mean_growth,no_change,25,-0.0007173257100953768,-0.729632054772079,0.4726768394538292,11.507846064762315,0.0031703191041764223,-0.0018406292044246997,0.0004419949860673104,1.0,1.0 | |
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| 38 | +1,local_linear_trend,no_change,33,0.000654107777419944,7.186623166634712,3.683159044420847e-8,50.95080417993893,8.63320526178768e-12,0.0005198810172714753,0.0008133512118329029,6.629686279957525e-7,6.629686279957525e-7 | |
| 39 | +1,seasonal_naive,no_change,33,0.0004990444263432449,4.997022179151343,0.0000200444125524335,25.801586353701964,2.496069715807181e-6,0.0002847607642083742,0.0007042212452090037,0.0003407550133913695,0.000360799425943803 | |
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| 41 | +1,rw_drift,no_change,33,0.00009380887871493016,2.4026038470149045,0.022252443915668607,6.239205410061398,0.044174715325982605,0.000019354303719638538,0.00016482757323776987,0.3337866587350291,0.40054399048203493 | |
| 42 | +1,qanss,no_change,33,-0.00013859317013641077,-2.269967724086572,0.030083181600848885,7.257196570921887,0.02655337859182394,-0.0002780481069012647,-0.000022728540595518145,0.4211645424118844,0.5414972688152799 | |
| 43 | +1,raref,no_change,33,-0.00013909374799145807,-1.9879638445241046,0.055427971582944435,5.185987428937652,0.07479578734768977,-0.0002760525901954923,-0.000015299228329465612,0.7205636305782777,0.9977034884929998 | |
| 44 | +1,ridge_panel,no_change,33,-0.00013380730045621644,-1.8990124967129978,0.06661041208186158,4.538849795005898,0.10337161226400149,-0.0002732960126354334,-5.128929102797914e-6,0.799324944982339,1.0 | |
| 45 | +1,lstm,no_change,33,0.000891043369684131,1.8823212624511807,0.06891295561392252,3.793391334299188,0.15006366116576886,-8.849364696402012e-6,0.0021329725115371598,0.799324944982339,1.0 | |
| 46 | +1,bhpf,no_change,33,-0.0001290313562692453,-1.7931833902648386,0.08240054458672663,4.282397990142851,0.11751385998074204,-0.000266240218070492,3.2803772656216633e-6,0.8240054458672663,1.0 | |
| 47 | +1,qrefa,no_change,33,-0.00017637909717452561,-1.7394629978941434,0.09156562970742121,6.528084249907006,0.03823354050355954,-0.0004020511982973061,9.897552000874431e-6,0.8240906673667909,1.0 | |
| 48 | +1,gru,no_change,33,0.0005772044106779943,1.580388655865718,0.1238531257403912,2.831271632413553,0.2427712064990929,-0.00007578443753450223,0.0015084476229044474,0.9908250059231296,1.0 | |
| 49 | +1,tft_lite,no_change,33,0.00018142942479498205,1.2425478002876462,0.22306315875370242,2.3809981345739586,0.3040694750654178,-0.00009897508766232265,0.0005703700711638199,1.0,1.0 | |
| 50 | +1,ar2_cell,no_change,33,-0.00005602726854674192,-1.1042351100767787,0.27772549946155656,1.401290326520477,0.4962650285238561,-0.0001535955387910956,0.00002801381435714301,1.0,1.0 | |
| 51 | +1,momentum,no_change,33,-0.00002502045723798141,-1.0012107420274348,0.32423617164185226,5.175215383110637,0.07519972600712022,-0.00007123437435305095,0.000029923596172099475,1.0,1.0 | |
| 52 | +1,mlp_panel,no_change,33,0.0001295893917574745,0.7300747450002799,0.4706557611647608,0.718068307926953,0.6983504995068046,-0.00016780879018294921,0.0005390921177807485,1.0,1.0 | |
| 53 | +1,tcn,no_change,33,0.00010741151419640574,0.6812428859499785,0.5006184556272588,0.8660417304654908,0.648546959580542,-0.00017069960654531816,0.00045514039957294427,1.0,1.0 | |
| 54 | +1,dsgfn,no_change,33,-0.000058524882068571454,-0.5224273810585598,0.604971064092652,2.27578493036072,0.32049376231055815,-0.0002888323436388226,0.00014423096850084763,1.0,1.0 | |
| 55 | +1,mean_growth,no_change,33,9.565112971437082e-6,0.2560138460501052,0.7995787888537134,0.05613400829227154,0.9723232149317641,-0.00006081074089875132,0.00007746369808640293,1.0,1.0 | |
| 56 | +12,local_linear_trend,no_change,13,0.043388964883359755,4.879460450263494,0.000378866286424806,2218.615108390378,0.0,0.041208525245899255,0.04570922987508578,0.006819593155646508,0.006819593155646508 | |
| 57 | +12,mlp_panel,no_change,13,0.008846636087837315,0.5462118851272639,0.5949299984737997,159.16122566027286,0.0,0.004926055941683255,0.012596673777489353,1.0,1.0 | |
| 58 | +12,ar2_cell,no_change,13,-0.004001303243616557,-0.3780476315653641,0.7119976957938932,16.063414139518027,0.00032499294948606927,-0.005221496894598254,-0.002684859665676308,1.0,1.0 | |
| 59 | +12,seasonal_naive,no_change,13,0.002028168485285463,0.29448686060662804,0.773418116886186,13.196547508497789,0.001362718395156448,0.0010623390894687963,0.003057474274730315,1.0,1.0 | |
| 60 | +12,rw_drift,no_change,13,0.0020281684852854623,0.29448686060662804,0.773418116886186,13.196547508497805,0.001362718395156448,0.001062339089468796,0.003057474274730314,1.0,1.0 | |
| 61 | +12,qanss,no_change,13,0.0034618547453914594,0.26985703769966696,0.7918548887721317,11.265887464885356,0.0035780270549808924,0.001536596533553838,0.005818270860608339,1.0,1.0 | |
| 62 | +12,mean_growth,no_change,13,-0.0023718990271547843,-0.2617379358781741,0.7979620401592116,19.156394783437083,0.0000692216147856195,-0.0035020640989607667,-0.0011098879940347605,1.0,1.0 | |
| 63 | +12,lightgbm_panel,no_change,13,-0.0027759506548058525,-0.18669824662764214,0.8550163955137768,9.033579725218395,0.01092403509626283,-0.004524534749631591,-0.0009036788870848966,1.0,1.0 | |
| 64 | +12,tcn,no_change,13,0.0021283471470391717,0.154485887681953,0.8797944927484902,6.179279026159522,0.04551836022089317,-0.0007201427311419969,0.005036938935741576,1.0,1.0 | |
| 65 | +12,gru,no_change,13,0.0009725285533115021,0.13556853630069426,0.8944099582238154,9.954506918100014,0.00689296840275766,-0.0002215148207411768,0.0022578848517333596,1.0,1.0 | |
| 66 | +12,momentum,no_change,13,0.000051631021657914476,0.13295199358628715,0.8964348092709993,1.9549267137186341,0.3762643376781497,-0.00005032147493127288,0.000152055535723142,1.0,1.0 | |
| 67 | +12,ridge_panel,no_change,13,0.0032222044235059354,0.13147122848336318,0.8975810603128207,9.143538695077977,0.010339649090786551,0.00015056690078920048,0.006291616774925707,1.0,1.0 | |
| 68 | +12,raref,no_change,13,0.0025916149109520797,0.10878502447229967,0.9151709003110302,8.234151788026935,0.01629208464013321,-0.0003739501499139679,0.0056871914110830585,1.0,1.0 | |
| 69 | +12,bhpf,no_change,13,0.002218216356633585,0.10555504688435767,0.9176793268323502,22.764654280622146,0.000011395099763111816,-0.0005470258199203568,0.00502354364182346,1.0,1.0 | |
| 70 | +12,dsgfn,no_change,13,0.002155824673956394,0.10434641701530144,0.9186181980173911,26.78957182889846,1.523064834918486e-6,-0.0011078024014217211,0.0052377810819021825,1.0,1.0 | |
| 71 | +12,lstm,no_change,13,0.0007424097281783149,0.07040997473929776,0.9450271468108122,4.471183301423258,0.10692884660598323,-0.0012550981893412062,0.0028909336666367814,1.0,1.0 | |
| 72 | +12,qrefa,no_change,13,0.0010224065757117947,0.052000576672242005,0.9593838433919502,32.939882312946075,7.033887827745389e-8,-0.0014184913281867675,0.0034369075769012415,1.0,1.0 | |
| 73 | +12,tft_lite,no_change,13,-0.0006260624322423729,-0.04332967533733047,0.9661513861533662,38.165039631567325,5.1590167693404965e-9,-0.0026701592525679666,0.0014788170417007335,1.0,1.0 | |
added
scripts/39_extra_analysis.py
+176 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,176 @@ | ||
| 1 | +#!/usr/bin/env python3 | |
| 2 | +# Author: Simon-Pierre Boucher — simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca | |
| 3 | +"""Additional analyses (protocol §8–§11): temporal evolution of errors, regime-dependent accuracy (ex-post regimes and the | |
| 4 | +RAREF origin-dated regime probabilities), directional accuracy and turning points, probabilities of decline (Brier score, | |
| 5 | +reliability), Holm-adjusted multiple-testing, equal-weight combinations, municipal performance distributions, computational | |
| 6 | +cost, economic magnitude, and transaction-selection rates. Writes results/extra/*.csv.""" | |
| 7 | +from __future__ import annotations | |
| 8 | + | |
| 9 | +import glob | |
| 10 | +import sys | |
| 11 | +from pathlib import Path | |
| 12 | + | |
| 13 | +sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] / "src")) | |
| 14 | +import numpy as np | |
| 15 | +import polars as pl | |
| 16 | +from scipy import stats | |
| 17 | + | |
| 18 | +from wp23 import config as C | |
| 19 | +from wp23 import evaluation as E | |
| 20 | +from wp23.data import month_add | |
| 21 | + | |
| 22 | +OUT = C.RESULTS / "extra"; OUT.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) | |
| 23 | +TAUS = np.array([0.05, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 0.95]) | |
| 24 | +KEY_B = ["no_change", "mean_growth", "momentum", "ar2_cell", "ridge_panel", "lightgbm_panel", "tft_lite", "bhpf", "raref", "qanss", "dsgfn", "qrefa"] | |
| 25 | + | |
| 26 | + | |
| 27 | +def load_b(): | |
| 28 | + p = pl.concat([pl.read_parquet(f) for f in sorted(glob.glob(str(C.RESULTS / "task_b" / "predictions_*.parquet")))], how="diagonal") | |
| 29 | + return p.with_columns((pl.col("pred") - pl.col("target")).abs().alias("ae"), ((pl.col("pred") - pl.col("target")) ** 2).alias("se")) | |
| 30 | + | |
| 31 | + | |
| 32 | +def prob_below(Q: np.ndarray, x: float = 0.0) -> np.ndarray: | |
| 33 | + """P(target < x) from the 5-quantile forecast by piecewise-linear interpolation of the quantile function (tails extrapolated with the 5–25 and 75–95 slopes).""" | |
| 34 | + out = np.empty(len(Q)) | |
| 35 | + for i, q in enumerate(Q): | |
| 36 | + q = np.sort(q); lo, hi = q[0] - (q[1] - q[0]) * 2, q[-1] + (q[-1] - q[-2]) * 2 | |
| 37 | + xs = np.concatenate([[lo], q, [hi]]); ps = np.concatenate([[0.0], TAUS, [1.0]]) | |
| 38 | + out[i] = float(np.interp(x, xs, ps)) if np.all(np.isfinite(xs)) else np.nan | |
| 39 | + return out | |
| 40 | + | |
| 41 | + | |
| 42 | +def temporal_b(p): | |
| 43 | + d = p.filter(pl.col("model").is_in(KEY_B)).group_by(["model", "h", "origin"]).agg(pl.col("ae").mean().alias("mae"), pl.len().alias("n")).sort(["model", "h", "origin"]) | |
| 44 | + d.write_csv(OUT / "error_by_origin_b.csv") | |
| 45 | + y = p.filter(pl.col("model").is_in(KEY_B)).with_columns(pl.col("origin").str.slice(0, 4).alias("year")).group_by(["model", "h", "year"]).agg(pl.col("ae").mean().alias("mae"), pl.len().alias("n")) | |
| 46 | + nc = y.filter(pl.col("model") == "no_change").select(["h", "year", pl.col("mae").alias("mae_nc")]) | |
| 47 | + y.join(nc, on=["h", "year"]).with_columns((pl.col("mae") / pl.col("mae_nc")).alias("mase")).sort(["h", "year", "mae"]).write_csv(OUT / "error_by_year_b.csv") | |
| 48 | + | |
| 49 | + | |
| 50 | +def regimes_b(p): | |
| 51 | + # ex-post regimes from the realised provincial 3-month house change at the origin's horizon window: rising (> +2 pts), falling (< −2 pts), flat | |
| 52 | + prov = p.filter((pl.col("level") == "province") & (pl.col("class") == "house") & (pl.col("model") == "no_change")).select(["origin", "h", pl.col("target").alias("prov_target")]) | |
| 53 | + d = p.filter(pl.col("model").is_in(KEY_B)).join(prov, on=["origin", "h"], how="left").with_columns( | |
| 54 | + pl.when(pl.col("prov_target") > 0.02).then(pl.lit("rising")).when(pl.col("prov_target") < -0.02).then(pl.lit("falling")).otherwise(pl.lit("flat")).alias("regime")) | |
| 55 | + g = d.group_by(["model", "h", "regime"]).agg(pl.col("ae").mean().alias("mae"), pl.len().alias("n"), pl.col("origin").n_unique().alias("origins")) | |
| 56 | + nc = g.filter(pl.col("model") == "no_change").select(["h", "regime", pl.col("mae").alias("mae_nc")]) | |
| 57 | + g.join(nc, on=["h", "regime"]).with_columns((pl.col("mae") / pl.col("mae_nc")).alias("mase")).sort(["h", "regime", "mae"]).write_csv(OUT / "error_by_regime_b.csv") | |
| 58 | + # RAREF regime probabilities by origin (origin-dated): refit the HMM gating on the h=3 panel with expanding training | |
| 59 | + from wp23.models_b import RAREF | |
| 60 | + panel = pl.read_parquet(C.PROCESSED / "task_b_panel.parquet").filter(pl.col("h") == 3) | |
| 61 | + origins = sorted(panel["origin"].unique().to_list()); rows = [] | |
| 62 | + for o in origins[10:]: | |
| 63 | + tr = panel.filter(pl.col("origin").map_elements(lambda x: month_add(x, 3), return_dtype=pl.Utf8) <= o); te = panel.filter(pl.col("origin") == o) | |
| 64 | + if tr["origin"].n_unique() < 10: continue | |
| 65 | + m = RAREF().fit(tr); both = pl.concat([tr.select(te.columns), te], how="diagonal"); P = m._probs(both)[-te.height:] | |
| 66 | + for (cls, lvl), pr in zip(te.select(["class", "level"]).iter_rows(), P): | |
| 67 | + if lvl == "province": | |
| 68 | + hmm = m.hmm_for(m._growth_series(both, o, cls)); order = np.argsort(hmm.mu) # states ordered by mean growth | |
| 69 | + rows.append({"origin": o, "class": cls, "p_low": float(pr[order[0]]), "p_mid": float(pr[order[1]]), "p_high": float(pr[order[2]]), "mu_low": float(hmm.mu[order[0]]), "mu_high": float(hmm.mu[order[2]]), | |
| 70 | + "prov_growth_last": float(np.diff(np.array(te.filter((pl.col("class") == cls) & (pl.col("level") == "province"))["hist"][0]))[-1])}) | |
| 71 | + pl.DataFrame(rows).write_csv(OUT / "raref_regimes.csv") | |
| 72 | + | |
| 73 | + | |
| 74 | +def direction_b(p): | |
| 75 | + d = p.filter(pl.col("model").is_in(KEY_B) & (pl.col("target").abs() > 0.005)).with_columns((np.sign(pl.col("pred")) == np.sign(pl.col("target"))).cast(pl.Float64).alias("hit")) | |
| 76 | + g = d.group_by(["model", "h"]).agg(pl.col("hit").mean().alias("directional_accuracy"), pl.len().alias("n")) | |
| 77 | + # turning points: origins where the realised change of the cell changes sign relative to the previous origin's realised change | |
| 78 | + s = p.filter(pl.col("model") == "no_change").sort(["class", "level", "geo_id", "h", "origin"]).with_columns(pl.col("target").shift(1).over(["class", "level", "geo_id", "h"]).alias("prev")) | |
| 79 | + tp = s.filter((np.sign(pl.col("target")) != np.sign(pl.col("prev"))) & pl.col("prev").is_not_null() & (pl.col("target").abs() > 0.01)).select(["class", "level", "geo_id", "h", "origin"]).with_columns(pl.lit(True).alias("turning")) | |
| 80 | + dd = d.join(tp, on=["class", "level", "geo_id", "h", "origin"], how="left").with_columns(pl.col("turning").fill_null(False)) | |
| 81 | + g2 = dd.filter(pl.col("turning")).group_by(["model", "h"]).agg(pl.col("hit").mean().alias("directional_accuracy_at_turning_points"), pl.len().alias("n_turning")) | |
| 82 | + g.join(g2, on=["model", "h"], how="left").sort(["h", "directional_accuracy"], descending=[False, True]).write_csv(OUT / "directional_b.csv") | |
| 83 | + | |
| 84 | + | |
| 85 | +def decline_b(p): | |
| 86 | + rows, rel = [], [] | |
| 87 | + for (m, h), d in p.filter(pl.col("model").is_in(KEY_B)).group_by(["model", "h"]): | |
| 88 | + Q = d.select(["q05", "q25", "q50", "q75", "q95"]).to_numpy(); y = d["target"].to_numpy(); ok = np.all(np.isfinite(Q), axis=1) | |
| 89 | + pd_ = prob_below(Q[ok], 0.0); yd = (y[ok] < 0).astype(float); pa = 1 - prob_below(Q[ok], 0.02); ya = (y[ok] > 0.02).astype(float) | |
| 90 | + brier_d = float(np.mean((pd_ - yd) ** 2)); brier_a = float(np.mean((pa - ya) ** 2)); base_d = float(np.mean((yd.mean() - yd) ** 2)); base_a = float(np.mean((ya.mean() - ya) ** 2)) | |
| 91 | + rows.append({"model": m, "h": h, "n": int(ok.sum()), "share_declines": float(yd.mean()), "brier_decline": brier_d, "brier_skill_decline": 1 - brier_d / base_d, "brier_up2": brier_a, "brier_skill_up2": 1 - brier_a / base_a}) | |
| 92 | + bins = np.linspace(0, 1, 6) | |
| 93 | + for b in range(5): | |
| 94 | + sel = (pd_ >= bins[b]) & (pd_ < bins[b + 1] + (b == 4)) | |
| 95 | + if sel.sum() >= 30: rel.append({"model": m, "h": h, "bin": b, "p_mean": float(pd_[sel].mean()), "freq": float(yd[sel].mean()), "n": int(sel.sum())}) | |
| 96 | + pl.DataFrame(rows).sort(["h", "brier_decline"]).write_csv(OUT / "decline_b.csv"); pl.DataFrame(rel).write_csv(OUT / "decline_reliability_b.csv") | |
| 97 | + | |
| 98 | + | |
| 99 | +def holm_tests(): | |
| 100 | + for tag in ["a", "b"]: | |
| 101 | + f = C.RESULTS / f"eval_{tag}" / "tests_vs_reference.csv" | |
| 102 | + if not f.exists(): continue | |
| 103 | + t = pl.read_csv(f, infer_schema_length=None); out = [] | |
| 104 | + for h, d in t.group_by("h"): | |
| 105 | + d = d.filter(pl.col("dm_p").is_not_null()).sort("dm_p"); pv = d["dm_p"].to_numpy(); m = len(pv); adj = np.minimum.accumulate(np.minimum(1, pv * (m - np.arange(m)))[::-1])[::-1] | |
| 106 | + adj = np.maximum.accumulate(np.minimum(1, pv * (m - np.arange(m)))) # Holm step-down | |
| 107 | + out.append(d.with_columns(pl.Series("dm_p_holm", adj), pl.Series("dm_p_bonferroni", np.minimum(1, pv * m)))) | |
| 108 | + pl.concat(out).write_csv(OUT / f"tests_holm_{tag}.csv") | |
| 109 | + | |
| 110 | + | |
| 111 | +def combos_b(p): | |
| 112 | + base = p.filter(pl.col("model").is_in(["lightgbm_panel", "qanss", "ridge_panel", "ar2_cell", "no_change", "qrefa"])).select(["class", "level", "geo_id", "origin", "h", "target", "model", "pred"]) | |
| 113 | + w = base.pivot(on="model", index=["class", "level", "geo_id", "origin", "h", "target"], values="pred").drop_nulls() | |
| 114 | + combos = {"eq_lgbm_qanss": ["lightgbm_panel", "qanss"], "eq_lgbm_qanss_ridge_ar2": ["lightgbm_panel", "qanss", "ridge_panel", "ar2_cell"], "eq_lgbm_ar2": ["lightgbm_panel", "ar2_cell"], "eq_all_with_nochange": ["lightgbm_panel", "qanss", "ridge_panel", "ar2_cell", "no_change"]} | |
| 115 | + rows = [] | |
| 116 | + for h, d in w.group_by("h"): | |
| 117 | + h = h[0]; y = d["target"].to_numpy(); nc = np.abs(d["no_change"].to_numpy() - y).mean() | |
| 118 | + for name, cols in combos.items(): | |
| 119 | + pr = np.mean(np.column_stack([d[c].to_numpy() for c in cols]), axis=1); rows.append({"h": h, "combination": name, "mae": float(np.mean(np.abs(pr - y))), "mase": float(np.mean(np.abs(pr - y)) / nc), "n": d.height}) | |
| 120 | + for c in ["lightgbm_panel", "qanss", "ridge_panel", "ar2_cell", "qrefa"]: | |
| 121 | + rows.append({"h": h, "combination": c, "mae": float(np.mean(np.abs(d[c].to_numpy() - y))), "mase": float(np.mean(np.abs(d[c].to_numpy() - y)) / nc), "n": d.height}) | |
| 122 | + pl.DataFrame(rows).sort(["h", "mae"]).write_csv(OUT / "combinations_b.csv") | |
| 123 | + | |
| 124 | + | |
| 125 | +def municipal_distribution_b(p): | |
| 126 | + d = p.filter((pl.col("level") == "municipality") & (pl.col("h") == 3) & pl.col("model").is_in(["lightgbm_panel", "qanss", "ridge_panel", "ar2_cell", "no_change"])) | |
| 127 | + g = d.group_by(["class", "geo_id", "model"]).agg(pl.col("ae").mean().alias("mae"), pl.col("n_last").mean().alias("mean_n"), pl.len().alias("n")) | |
| 128 | + nc = g.filter(pl.col("model") == "no_change").select(["class", "geo_id", pl.col("mae").alias("mae_nc")]) | |
| 129 | + g = g.join(nc, on=["class", "geo_id"]).with_columns((pl.col("mae") / pl.col("mae_nc")).alias("mase")); g.write_csv(OUT / "municipal_mase_b.csv") | |
| 130 | + g.filter(pl.col("model") != "no_change").group_by("model").agg(pl.col("mase").median().alias("median_mase"), (pl.col("mase") < 1).mean().alias("share_beating_no_change"), pl.col("mase").quantile(0.1).alias("p10"), pl.col("mase").quantile(0.9).alias("p90"), pl.len().alias("cells")).sort("median_mase").write_csv(OUT / "municipal_mase_summary_b.csv") | |
| 131 | + | |
| 132 | + | |
| 133 | +def cost(): | |
| 134 | + rows = [] | |
| 135 | + for tag in ["a", "b"]: | |
| 136 | + t = pl.concat([pl.read_csv(f) for f in sorted(glob.glob(str(C.RESULTS / f"task_{tag}" / "timing_*.csv")))]) | |
| 137 | + g = t.group_by("model").agg(pl.col("seconds").mean().alias("mean_seconds_per_fit"), pl.col("seconds").sum().alias("total_seconds"), pl.len().alias("fits"), pl.col("n_train").mean().alias("mean_train_rows")).with_columns(pl.lit(tag.upper()).alias("task")) | |
| 138 | + rows.append(g) | |
| 139 | + pl.concat(rows).sort(["task", "mean_seconds_per_fit"]).write_csv(OUT / "computational_cost.csv") | |
| 140 | + | |
| 141 | + | |
| 142 | +def temporal_a(): | |
| 143 | + files = sorted(glob.glob(str(C.RESULTS / "task_a" / "predictions_*.parquet"))) | |
| 144 | + if not files: return | |
| 145 | + pred = pl.concat([pl.read_parquet(f) for f in files], how="diagonal").filter(pl.col("model").is_in(["lightgbm", "hshn_partial", "hedonic_ols", "naive_mun_median", "xgboost", "random_forest", "mlp"])) | |
| 146 | + tg = pl.concat([pl.read_parquet(f) for f in sorted(glob.glob(str(C.RESULTS / "task_a" / "targets_*.parquet")))]) | |
| 147 | + j = pred.join(tg, on=["tx_id", "h", "origin"]).with_columns((pl.col("pred") - pl.col("y")).abs().alias("ae"), (pl.col("pred") - pl.col("y")).alias("err")) | |
| 148 | + j.group_by(["model", "origin"]).agg(pl.col("ae").mean().alias("mae"), pl.col("err").mean().alias("bias"), pl.len().alias("n")).sort(["model", "origin"]).write_csv(OUT / "error_by_origin_a.csv") | |
| 149 | + j.filter(pl.col("model").is_in(["lightgbm", "hshn_partial", "hedonic_ols"])).group_by(["model", "h"]).agg(pl.col("ae").mean().alias("mae"), pl.col("err").mean().alias("bias")).sort(["model", "h"]).write_csv(OUT / "error_by_month_horizon_a.csv") | |
| 150 | + # economic magnitude: MAE in dollars at the class median price | |
| 151 | + sales = pl.read_parquet(C.WP22_ANALYTIC, columns=["tx_id", "property_class", "price"]); jj = j.join(sales, on="tx_id") | |
| 152 | + jj.filter(pl.col("model").is_in(["lightgbm", "hedonic_ols", "naive_mun_median"]) & (pl.col("h") <= 3)).group_by(["model", "property_class"]).agg(pl.col("ae").mean().alias("mae_log"), pl.col("price").median().alias("median_price"), (pl.col("pred").exp() - pl.col("price")).abs().median().alias("median_abs_dollar_error")).sort(["property_class", "mae_log"]).write_csv(OUT / "dollar_errors_a.csv") | |
| 153 | + | |
| 154 | + | |
| 155 | +def selection(): | |
| 156 | + """Transaction selection: annual sale rate of the roll stock by class, floor-area and age decile (sold units / stock units).""" | |
| 157 | + st = pl.read_parquet(C.WP22_STOCK, columns=["id_provinc", "cubf", "nb_logements", "lien_physique", "annee_construction", "aire_etages_m2"]).filter(pl.col("cubf") == 1000) | |
| 158 | + st = st.with_columns(pl.when(pl.col("nb_logements") >= 6).then(None).when(pl.col("nb_logements").is_between(2, 5)).then(pl.lit("plex")).when((pl.col("nb_logements") <= 1) & (pl.col("lien_physique") == "Intégré")).then(pl.lit("condo")).when(pl.col("nb_logements") <= 1).then(pl.lit("house")).otherwise(None).alias("cls")).filter(pl.col("cls").is_not_null()) | |
| 159 | + sold = pl.read_parquet(C.WP22_ANALYTIC, columns=["parcel_id", "property_class"]).group_by(["parcel_id", "property_class"]).agg(pl.len().alias("sales")) | |
| 160 | + j = st.join(sold, left_on=["id_provinc", "cls"], right_on=["parcel_id", "property_class"], how="left").with_columns(pl.col("sales").fill_null(0)) | |
| 161 | + rows = [] | |
| 162 | + for cls in ["house", "condo", "plex"]: | |
| 163 | + d = j.filter(pl.col("cls") == cls).with_columns(pl.col("aire_etages_m2").qcut(5, labels=["fa1", "fa2", "fa3", "fa4", "fa5"]).alias("fa_q"), (2026 - pl.col("annee_construction")).qcut(5, labels=["age1", "age2", "age3", "age4", "age5"]).alias("age_q")) | |
| 164 | + for col in ["fa_q", "age_q"]: | |
| 165 | + for g, s in d.group_by(col): | |
| 166 | + rows.append({"class": cls, "dimension": col, "quintile": g[0], "stock_units": s.height, "sales_2021_2026": int(s["sales"].sum()), "annual_sale_rate_pct": 100 * float(s["sales"].sum()) / s.height / 5.75}) | |
| 167 | + pl.DataFrame(rows).sort(["class", "dimension", "quintile"]).write_csv(OUT / "selection_rates.csv") | |
| 168 | + | |
| 169 | + | |
| 170 | +if __name__ == "__main__": | |
| 171 | + p = load_b() | |
| 172 | + for fn in [lambda: temporal_b(p), lambda: regimes_b(p), lambda: direction_b(p), lambda: decline_b(p), holm_tests, lambda: combos_b(p), lambda: municipal_distribution_b(p), cost, temporal_a, selection]: | |
| 173 | + try: fn(); print("ok", getattr(fn, "__name__", "λ")) | |
| 174 | + except Exception as ex: | |
| 175 | + import traceback; traceback.print_exc() | |
| 176 | + print("done") | |
modified
scripts/50_tables.py
+109 −13
@@ -35,21 +35,24 @@ def ok(*p): | ||
| 35 | 35 | return not miss |
| 36 | 36 | |
| 37 | 37 | |
| 38 | −def table(name, header, rows, caption, label, align=None, notes="", size="\\small"): | |
| 38 | +def table(name, header, rows, caption, label, align=None, notes="", size="\\small", fit=None): | |
| 39 | 39 | align = align or "l" + "r" * (len(header) - 1); body = "\n".join(" & ".join(esc(c) for c in r) + " \\\\" for r in rows) |
| 40 | − (T / f"{name}.tex").write_text(f"""\\begin{{table}}[htbp] | |
| 41 | −\\centering{size} | |
| 42 | −\\caption{{{caption}}}\\label{{{label}}} | |
| 43 | −\\begin{{threeparttable}} | |
| 44 | −\\begin{{tabular}}{{{align}}} | |
| 40 | + fit = (len(header) > 7) if fit is None else fit | |
| 41 | + tab = f"""\\begin{{tabular}}{{{align}}} | |
| 45 | 42 | \\toprule |
| 46 | 43 | {' & '.join(esc(h) for h in header)} \\\\ |
| 47 | 44 | \\midrule |
| 48 | 45 | {body} |
| 49 | 46 | \\bottomrule |
| 50 | −\\end{{tabular}} | |
| 51 | −{('\\begin{tablenotes}\\footnotesize\\item ' + notes + '\\end{tablenotes}') if notes else ''} | |
| 52 | −\\end{{threeparttable}} | |
| 47 | +\\end{{tabular}}""" | |
| 48 | + if fit: # wide table: scale the tabular to the text width; notes in a full-width parbox (threeparttable mis-measures scaled boxes) | |
| 49 | + inner = "\\resizebox{\\textwidth}{!}{%\n" + tab + "}" + (("\n\\par\\vspace{3pt}\\parbox{\\textwidth}{\\footnotesize " + notes + "}") if notes else "") | |
| 50 | + else: | |
| 51 | + inner = "\\begin{threeparttable}\n" + tab + "\n" + (("\\begin{tablenotes}\\footnotesize\\item " + notes + "\\end{tablenotes}\n") if notes else "") + "\\end{threeparttable}" | |
| 52 | + (T / f"{name}.tex").write_text(f"""\\begin{{table}}[htbp] | |
| 53 | +\\centering{size} | |
| 54 | +\\caption{{{caption}}}\\label{{{label}}} | |
| 55 | +{inner} | |
| 53 | 56 | \\end{{table}} |
| 54 | 57 | """); print("table", name) |
| 55 | 58 | |
@@ -184,7 +187,7 @@ def t_ablation(): | ||
| 184 | 187 | if diff == diff and diff is not None: macro(f"AblDiff{m}h{h}", 100 * diff, "{:+.2f}") |
| 185 | 188 | rows.append(r) |
| 186 | 189 | table("tab_ablation_b", ["Variant", "h=1: MAE", "vs ref", "h=3: MAE", "vs ref", "h=6: MAE", "vs ref"], rows, "Task B ablations at the municipality level: MAE (×100) and difference to the reference variant (per-origin mean, * = 95\\% stationary-bootstrap interval excludes zero)", "tab:ablation_b", size="\\scriptsize", |
| 187 | − notes="Reference variants: DSGFN, QANSS, QREFA and the full ridge panel. Positive differences mean the ablated variant is worse.") | |
| 190 | + notes="Reference variants: DSGFN, QANSS, QREFA and the full ridge panel. Positive differences mean the ablated variant is worse.", fit=True) | |
| 188 | 191 | a = R / "ablation_b" / "dsgfn_attention_summary.csv" |
| 189 | 192 | if a.exists(): |
| 190 | 193 | x = pl.read_csv(a, infer_schema_length=None) |
@@ -206,7 +209,7 @@ def t_robust(): | ||
| 206 | 209 | if x.height: macro(f"Rob{m}{v}", 100 * x["mae"][0], "{:.2f}"); macro(f"RobCov{m}{v}", 100 * x["cov90"][0], "{:.0f}") |
| 207 | 210 | rows.append(r) |
| 208 | 211 | table("tab_robust_b", ["Model"] + [labv[v] for v in variants], rows, "Task B robustness at the municipality level, horizon 3: MAE (×100) under alternative designs", "tab:robust_b", size="\\scriptsize", |
| 209 | − notes="Rolling: models estimated on the 24 most recent origins only. Seeds: neural models re-estimated with different random seeds (the baseline is seed 0). Winsorised: targets clipped at the 1st and 99th percentiles in training and test.") | |
| 212 | + notes="Rolling: models estimated on the 24 most recent origins only. Seeds: neural models re-estimated with different random seeds (the baseline is seed 0). Winsorised: targets clipped at the 1st and 99th percentiles in training and test.", fit=True) | |
| 210 | 213 | |
| 211 | 214 | |
| 212 | 215 | def t_interpret(): |
@@ -218,7 +221,7 @@ def t_interpret(): | ||
| 218 | 221 | "reg_q_12": "region: quality-stripped level, 12 m", "reg_q_3": "region: level, 3 m", "lfa2": "log floor area squared", "mun_mom_3_12": "municipality: momentum 3 vs 12 m", "reg_mom_3_12": "region: momentum", "mun_vol_ratio": "municipality: volume ratio"} |
| 219 | 222 | rows = [[lab.get(r["feature"], r["feature"])] + [f"{100*r[c]:.1f}" for c in cols] + [f"{100*r['mean']:.1f}"] for r in d.iter_rows(named=True)] |
| 220 | 223 | table("tab_shap", ["Feature"] + cols + ["Mean"], rows, "Task A — mean absolute SHAP value (×100, log-price units) of the LightGBM model at three origins, 4,000 test sales each", "tab:shap", size="\\footnotesize", |
| 221 | − notes="Importance is predictive, not causal. Origin-month importance declines as the training history lengthens.") | |
| 224 | + notes="Importance is predictive, not causal. Origin-month importance declines as the training history lengthens.", fit=True) | |
| 222 | 225 | for r in d.iter_rows(named=True): |
| 223 | 226 | macro(f"Shap{r['feature']}", 100 * r["mean"], "{:.1f}") |
| 224 | 227 | for c in cols: macro(f"Shap{r['feature']}{c}", 100 * r[c], "{:.1f}") |
@@ -227,6 +230,99 @@ def t_interpret(): | ||
| 227 | 230 | x = a.filter(pl.col("feature") == feat).sort("bin"); macro(f"ALE{feat}Range", 100 * (x["ale"].max() - x["ale"].min()), "{:.1f}"); macro(f"ALE{feat}Top", 100 * x["ale"][-1], "{:+.1f}"); macro(f"ALE{feat}Bottom", 100 * x["ale"][0], "{:+.1f}") |
| 228 | 231 | |
| 229 | 232 | |
| 233 | +def t_extra(): | |
| 234 | + X = R / "extra" | |
| 235 | + if not ok(X / "tests_holm_b.csv"): return | |
| 236 | + t = pl.read_csv(X / "tests_holm_b.csv", infer_schema_length=None) | |
| 237 | + rows, rows2 = [], [] | |
| 238 | + for m in ORDER_B: | |
| 239 | + if m == "no_change": continue | |
| 240 | + r, r2 = [LABELS.get(m, m)], [LABELS.get(m, m)] | |
| 241 | + for h in (1, 3, 6, 12): | |
| 242 | + x = t.filter((pl.col("model") == m) & (pl.col("h") == h)) | |
| 243 | + has = x.height and x["dm_stat"][0] is not None | |
| 244 | + r += [f"{x['dm_stat'][0]:+.2f}" if has else "—", f"{x['dm_p_holm'][0]:.2f}" if has else "—"] | |
| 245 | + r2 += [f"{x['dm_p'][0]:.3f}" if has else "—", f"{x['gw_p'][0]:.3f}" if has and x["gw_p"][0] is not None else "—"] | |
| 246 | + if has: macro(f"HolmP{m}h{h}", x["dm_p_holm"][0], "{:.2f}"); macro(f"DMP{m}h{h}", x["dm_p"][0], "{:.3f}"); macro(f"GWP{m}h{h}", x["gw_p"][0], "{:.3f}") | |
| 247 | + rows.append(r); rows2.append(r2) | |
| 248 | + table("tab_tests_b", ["Model"] + [f"h={h}: {k}" for h in (1, 3, 6, 12) for k in ("DM", "Holm $p$")], rows, "Task B — Diebold--Mariano statistics against the no-change forecast (negative = better than no change) and Holm-adjusted $p$-values across the 18 models of each horizon", "tab:tests_b", size="\\scriptsize", fit=True, | |
| 249 | + notes="HAC variance with $h-1$ Bartlett lags and the Harvey--Leybourne--Newbold correction; $t_{n-1}$ reference distribution; Holm step-down over the 18 two-sided $p$-values of each horizon.") | |
| 250 | + table("tab_gw_b", ["Model"] + [f"h={h}: {k}" for h in (1, 3, 6, 12) for k in ("DM $p$", "GW $p$")], rows2, "Task B — unadjusted Diebold--Mariano $p$-values and Giacomini--White conditional-predictive-ability $p$-values against the no-change forecast", "tab:gw_b", size="\\scriptsize", fit=True, | |
| 251 | + notes="The Giacomini--White test regresses the loss differential on a constant and its own lag; a rejection means the relative accuracy of the two forecasts is predictable from the past.") | |
| 252 | + c = pl.read_csv(X / "computational_cost.csv", infer_schema_length=None) | |
| 253 | + rows = [[r["task"], LABELS.get(r["model"], r["model"]), f"{r['mean_seconds_per_fit']:.1f}", f"{r['total_seconds']:.0f}", str(r["fits"]), f"{r['mean_train_rows']:,.0f}".replace(",", "{,}")] for r in c.iter_rows(named=True)] | |
| 254 | + table("tab_cost", ["Task", "Model", "Seconds per fit", "Total seconds", "Fits", "Mean training rows"], rows, "Computational cost (wall-clock on a 32-core Mac Studio M3 Ultra; tree models 10 threads, neural models 8 threads)", "tab:cost", size="\\scriptsize") | |
| 255 | + for r in c.iter_rows(named=True): macro(f"Cost{r['task']}{r['model']}", r["mean_seconds_per_fit"], "{:.1f}") | |
| 256 | + y = pl.read_csv(X / "error_by_year_b.csv", infer_schema_length=None).filter(pl.col("h") == 3) | |
| 257 | + yrs = sorted(y["year"].unique().to_list()); rows = [] | |
| 258 | + for m in KEYS_B: | |
| 259 | + x = y.filter(pl.col("model") == m) | |
| 260 | + if x.height == 0: continue | |
| 261 | + rows.append([LABELS.get(m, m)] + [f"{100*x.filter(pl.col('year') == yr)['mae'][0]:.2f} ({x.filter(pl.col('year') == yr)['mase'][0]:.2f})" if x.filter(pl.col("year") == yr).height else "—" for yr in yrs]) | |
| 262 | + for yr in yrs: | |
| 263 | + z = x.filter(pl.col("year") == yr) | |
| 264 | + if z.height: macro(f"Year{m}{yr}", z["mase"][0], "{:.2f}") | |
| 265 | + table("tab_year_b", ["Model"] + [f"Origins in {yr}" for yr in yrs], rows, "Task B, horizon 3 — MAE (×100) and MASE (in parentheses) by year of the forecast origin", "tab:year_b", size="\\scriptsize", notes="2023 covers origins from October to December only; 2026 covers January to June.") | |
| 266 | + g = pl.read_csv(X / "error_by_regime_b.csv", infer_schema_length=None).filter(pl.col("h") == 3); regs = ["rising", "flat", "falling"]; rows = [] | |
| 267 | + for m in KEYS_B: | |
| 268 | + x = g.filter(pl.col("model") == m) | |
| 269 | + if x.height == 0: continue | |
| 270 | + rows.append([LABELS.get(m, m)] + [f"{100*x.filter(pl.col('regime') == rg)['mae'][0]:.2f} ({x.filter(pl.col('regime') == rg)['mase'][0]:.2f})" if x.filter(pl.col("regime") == rg).height else "—" for rg in regs]) | |
| 271 | + for rg in regs: | |
| 272 | + z = x.filter(pl.col("regime") == rg) | |
| 273 | + if z.height: macro(f"Regime{m}{rg}", z["mase"][0], "{:.2f}") | |
| 274 | + ns = {rg: (int(g.filter((pl.col("regime") == rg) & (pl.col("model") == "no_change"))["origins"][0]) if g.filter((pl.col("regime") == rg) & (pl.col("model") == "no_change")).height else 0) for rg in regs} | |
| 275 | + table("tab_regime_b", ["Model"] + [f"{rg} ({ns[rg]} origins)" for rg in regs], rows, "Task B, horizon 3 — MAE (×100) and MASE (in parentheses) by ex-post provincial regime of the target window (rising: provincial house index change above +2 log points over the horizon; falling: below $-2$; flat otherwise)", "tab:regime_b", size="\\scriptsize") | |
| 276 | + for rg in regs: macro(f"RegimeOrigins{rg}", ns[rg], "{:.0f}") | |
| 277 | + d = pl.read_csv(X / "directional_b.csv", infer_schema_length=None); rows = [] | |
| 278 | + for m in KEYS_B: | |
| 279 | + if m == "no_change": continue | |
| 280 | + r = [LABELS.get(m, m)] | |
| 281 | + for h in (1, 3, 6, 12): | |
| 282 | + x = d.filter((pl.col("model") == m) & (pl.col("h") == h)) | |
| 283 | + r += [f"{100*x['directional_accuracy'][0]:.0f}" if x.height else "—", f"{100*x['directional_accuracy_at_turning_points'][0]:.0f}" if x.height and x["directional_accuracy_at_turning_points"][0] is not None else "—"] | |
| 284 | + if x.height: macro(f"Dir{m}h{h}", 100 * x["directional_accuracy"][0], "{:.0f}"); macro(f"DirTP{m}h{h}", 100 * x["directional_accuracy_at_turning_points"][0] if x["directional_accuracy_at_turning_points"][0] is not None else None, "{:.0f}") | |
| 285 | + rows.append(r) | |
| 286 | + table("tab_direction_b", ["Model"] + [f"h={h}: {k}" for h in (1, 3, 6, 12) for k in ("all", "turning pts")], rows, "Task B — directional accuracy (\\% of forecasts with the sign of the realised change, changes above 0.5 log points) overall and at turning points (origins where the realised change reverses sign)", "tab:direction_b", size="\\scriptsize", | |
| 287 | + notes="The no-change forecast has no sign; momentum has the sign of the last three-month change.", fit=True) | |
| 288 | + dc = pl.read_csv(X / "decline_b.csv", infer_schema_length=None); rows = [] | |
| 289 | + for m in KEYS_B: | |
| 290 | + r = [LABELS.get(m, m)] | |
| 291 | + for h in (1, 3, 6, 12): | |
| 292 | + x = dc.filter((pl.col("model") == m) & (pl.col("h") == h)) | |
| 293 | + r += [f"{x['brier_decline'][0]:.3f}" if x.height else "—", f"{x['brier_skill_decline'][0]:+.2f}" if x.height else "—"] | |
| 294 | + if x.height: macro(f"BrierSkill{m}h{h}", x["brier_skill_decline"][0], "{:+.2f}"); macro(f"ShareDeclinesh{h}", 100 * x["share_declines"][0], "{:.0f}") | |
| 295 | + rows.append(r) | |
| 296 | + table("tab_decline_b", ["Model"] + [f"h={h}: {k}" for h in (1, 3, 6, 12) for k in ("Brier", "skill")], rows, "Task C — probability of an index decline over the horizon: Brier score and Brier skill score relative to the climatological frequency of declines", "tab:decline_b", size="\\scriptsize", | |
| 297 | + notes="Probabilities are read off the five-quantile forecasts by linear interpolation of the quantile function. Skill = $1 - $ Brier / Brier of the constant climatological probability.") | |
| 298 | + cb = pl.read_csv(X / "combinations_b.csv", infer_schema_length=None); lab = {"eq_lgbm_qanss": "Equal weights: LightGBM + QANSS", "eq_lgbm_qanss_ridge_ar2": "Equal weights: LightGBM + QANSS + ridge + AR(2)", "eq_lgbm_ar2": "Equal weights: LightGBM + AR(2)", "eq_all_with_nochange": "Equal weights: four models + no change"} | |
| 299 | + rows = [] | |
| 300 | + for name in ["lightgbm_panel", "qanss", "ridge_panel", "ar2_cell", "qrefa", "eq_lgbm_qanss", "eq_lgbm_ar2", "eq_lgbm_qanss_ridge_ar2", "eq_all_with_nochange"]: | |
| 301 | + x = cb.filter(pl.col("combination") == name); r = [lab.get(name, LABELS.get(name, name))] | |
| 302 | + for h in (1, 3, 6, 12): | |
| 303 | + z = x.filter(pl.col("h") == h); r.append(f"{z['mase'][0]:.3f}" if z.height else "—") | |
| 304 | + if z.height: macro(f"Combo{name}h{h}", z["mase"][0], "{:.3f}") | |
| 305 | + rows.append(r) | |
| 306 | + table("tab_combo_b", ["Forecast", "h=1", "h=3", "h=6", "h=12"], rows, "Task B — MASE of equal-weight combinations versus their components (same cells and origins)", "tab:combo_b", size="\\footnotesize") | |
| 307 | + md = pl.read_csv(X / "municipal_mase_summary_b.csv", infer_schema_length=None) | |
| 308 | + rows = [[LABELS.get(r["model"], r["model"]), f"{r['median_mase']:.2f}", f"{r['p10']:.2f}", f"{r['p90']:.2f}", f"{100*r['share_beating_no_change']:.0f}", str(r["cells"])] for r in md.iter_rows(named=True)] | |
| 309 | + table("tab_mun_dist_b", ["Model", "Median MASE", "P10", "P90", "% of cells beating no change", "Cells"], rows, "Task B, horizon 3 — distribution of the MASE across the 192 municipal cells (64 municipalities × 3 classes)", "tab:mun_dist_b", size="\\footnotesize") | |
| 310 | + for r in md.iter_rows(named=True): macro(f"MunShare{r['model']}", 100 * r["share_beating_no_change"], "{:.0f}"); macro(f"MunMedMASE{r['model']}", r["median_mase"], "{:.2f}"); macro(f"MunPninety{r['model']}", r["p90"], "{:.2f}") | |
| 311 | + de = pl.read_csv(X / "dollar_errors_a.csv", infer_schema_length=None) | |
| 312 | + rows = [[r["property_class"], LABELS.get(r["model"], r["model"]), f"{100*r['mae_log']:.1f}", f"{r['median_price']:,.0f}".replace(",", "{,}"), f"{r['median_abs_dollar_error']:,.0f}".replace(",", "{,}")] for r in de.iter_rows(named=True)] | |
| 313 | + table("tab_dollar_a", ["Class", "Model", "MAE (log ×100)", "Median price (\\$)", "Median absolute error (\\$)"], rows, "Task A, horizons 1--3 months — economic magnitude of forecast errors", "tab:dollar_a", size="\\footnotesize") | |
| 314 | + for r in de.iter_rows(named=True): macro(f"Dollar{r['model']}{r['property_class']}", r["median_abs_dollar_error"], "{:,.0f}") | |
| 315 | + sr = pl.read_csv(X / "selection_rates.csv", infer_schema_length=None).filter(pl.col("quintile").is_not_null()); rows = [] | |
| 316 | + for cls in ["house", "condo", "plex"]: | |
| 317 | + for dim, lab2 in [("fa_q", "floor area"), ("age_q", "age")]: | |
| 318 | + x = sr.filter((pl.col("class") == cls) & (pl.col("dimension") == dim)).sort("quintile"); rows.append([f"{cls}, by {lab2} quintile (1 = smallest / newest)"] + [f"{v:.1f}" for v in x["annual_sale_rate_pct"].to_list()]) | |
| 319 | + for q, v in zip(x["quintile"].to_list(), x["annual_sale_rate_pct"].to_list()): macro(f"SaleRate{cls}{q}", v, "{:.1f}") | |
| 320 | + table("tab_selection_rates", ["Class and dimension", "Q1", "Q2", "Q3", "Q4", "Q5"], rows, "Transaction selection — annual sale rate of the roll stock (\\% of units sold per year, 2021--2026) by quintile of floor area and of age", "tab:selection_rates", size="\\footnotesize") | |
| 321 | + | |
| 322 | + | |
| 323 | +KEYS_B = ["no_change", "mean_growth", "momentum", "ar2_cell", "ridge_panel", "lightgbm_panel", "tft_lite", "bhpf", "raref", "qanss", "dsgfn", "qrefa"] | |
| 324 | + | |
| 325 | + | |
| 230 | 326 | def t_simulation(): |
| 231 | 327 | f = R / "simulation" / "summary.csv" |
| 232 | 328 | if not ok(f): return |
@@ -246,7 +342,7 @@ def t_simulation(): | ||
| 246 | 342 | |
| 247 | 343 | |
| 248 | 344 | if __name__ == "__main__": |
| 249 | − for fn in [t_data, t_results, t_ablation, t_robust, t_interpret, t_simulation]: | |
| 345 | + for fn in [t_data, t_results, t_ablation, t_robust, t_interpret, t_extra, t_simulation]: | |
| 250 | 346 | try: fn() |
| 251 | 347 | except Exception as ex: |
| 252 | 348 | import traceback; traceback.print_exc(); print("FAILED", fn.__name__) |
modified
scripts/60_figures.py
+63 −0
@@ -146,3 +146,66 @@ if __name__ == "__main__": | ||
| 146 | 146 | try: fn() |
| 147 | 147 | except Exception as ex: |
| 148 | 148 | import traceback; traceback.print_exc() |
| 149 | + | |
| 150 | + | |
| 151 | +def fig_error_time(): | |
| 152 | + X = R / "extra" | |
| 153 | + if ok(X / "error_by_origin_b.csv"): | |
| 154 | + d = pl.read_csv(X / "error_by_origin_b.csv", infer_schema_length=None).filter(pl.col("h") == 3) | |
| 155 | + fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8.4, 3.0)) | |
| 156 | + for m in ["no_change", "ar2_cell", "ridge_panel", "lightgbm_panel", "qanss", "qrefa", "dsgfn"]: | |
| 157 | + s = d.filter(pl.col("model") == m).sort("origin") | |
| 158 | + if s.height: ax.plot(range(s.height), 100 * s["mae"], color=COL.get(m, "#999"), lw=1.6 if m in ("lightgbm_panel", "no_change") else 1.0, label=LAB.get(m, m)) | |
| 159 | + orig = d.filter(pl.col("model") == "no_change").sort("origin")["origin"].to_list(); idx = [i for i, o in enumerate(orig) if o.endswith(("-01", "-07"))] | |
| 160 | + ax.set_xticks(idx); ax.set_xticklabels([orig[i] for i in idx], rotation=45, fontsize=7); ax.set_ylabel("MAE (log points ×100), h = 3"); ax.legend(fontsize=6.5, ncol=4); save(fig, "fig_error_time_b") | |
| 161 | + if ok(X / "error_by_origin_a.csv"): | |
| 162 | + d = pl.read_csv(X / "error_by_origin_a.csv", infer_schema_length=None) | |
| 163 | + fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(8.4, 2.8)) | |
| 164 | + for m in ["naive_mun_median", "hedonic_ols", "lightgbm", "hshn_partial", "mlp"]: | |
| 165 | + s = d.filter(pl.col("model") == m).sort("origin") | |
| 166 | + if s.height: | |
| 167 | + axes[0].plot(range(s.height), 100 * s["mae"], marker="o", ms=3, color=COLA.get(m, "#999"), label=LAB.get(m, m)); axes[1].plot(range(s.height), 100 * s["bias"], marker="o", ms=3, color=COLA.get(m, "#999")) | |
| 168 | + orig = d.filter(pl.col("model") == "lightgbm").sort("origin")["origin"].to_list() | |
| 169 | + for ax, yl in zip(axes, ["MAE (log ×100), all horizons", "Bias (log ×100)"]): | |
| 170 | + ax.set_xticks(range(len(orig))); ax.set_xticklabels(orig, rotation=45, fontsize=6.5); ax.set_ylabel(yl) | |
| 171 | + axes[1].axhline(0, color=INK2, lw=0.5); axes[0].legend(fontsize=6.5); save(fig, "fig_error_time_a") | |
| 172 | + | |
| 173 | + | |
| 174 | +def fig_regimes(): | |
| 175 | + X = R / "extra" | |
| 176 | + if not ok(X / "raref_regimes.csv"): return | |
| 177 | + d = pl.read_csv(X / "raref_regimes.csv", infer_schema_length=None).filter(pl.col("class") == "house").sort("origin") | |
| 178 | + fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8.4, 2.8)); x = np.arange(d.height) | |
| 179 | + ax.stackplot(x, d["p_low"], d["p_mid"], d["p_high"], colors=[SERIES[7], "#d9d9d6", SERIES[2]], alpha=0.75, labels=["low-growth state", "middle state", "high-growth state"], lw=0) | |
| 180 | + ax2 = ax.twinx() if False else None # single axis rule: growth shown as markers scaled to [0,1] | |
| 181 | + g = d["prov_growth_last"].to_numpy(); ax.plot(x, 0.5 + 10 * g, color="#0b0b0b", lw=1.2, label="provincial monthly growth (×10, centred at 0.5)") | |
| 182 | + idx = [i for i, o in enumerate(d["origin"].to_list()) if o.endswith(("-01", "-07"))]; ax.set_xticks(idx); ax.set_xticklabels([d["origin"][i] for i in idx], rotation=45, fontsize=7) | |
| 183 | + ax.set_ylim(0, 1); ax.set_ylabel("Filtered regime probability (RAREF), houses"); ax.legend(fontsize=6.5, loc="upper center", bbox_to_anchor=(0.5, -0.32), ncol=4, frameon=False); save(fig, "fig_regimes") | |
| 184 | + | |
| 185 | + | |
| 186 | +def fig_decline_reliability(): | |
| 187 | + X = R / "extra" | |
| 188 | + if not ok(X / "decline_reliability_b.csv"): return | |
| 189 | + d = pl.read_csv(X / "decline_reliability_b.csv", infer_schema_length=None).filter(pl.col("h") == 3) | |
| 190 | + fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(4.2, 3.6)); ax.plot([0, 1], [0, 1], color=INK2, lw=0.6, ls="--") | |
| 191 | + for m in ["lightgbm_panel", "qrefa", "bhpf", "qanss", "ridge_panel", "dsgfn"]: | |
| 192 | + s = d.filter(pl.col("model") == m).sort("p_mean") | |
| 193 | + if s.height: ax.plot(s["p_mean"], s["freq"], marker="o", ms=4, color=COL.get(m, "#999"), label=LAB.get(m, m)) | |
| 194 | + ax.set_xlabel("Forecast probability of a decline (h = 3)"); ax.set_ylabel("Observed frequency of declines"); ax.legend(fontsize=6.5); save(fig, "fig_decline_reliability") | |
| 195 | + | |
| 196 | + | |
| 197 | +def fig_mun_distribution(): | |
| 198 | + X = R / "extra" | |
| 199 | + if not ok(X / "municipal_mase_b.csv"): return | |
| 200 | + d = pl.read_csv(X / "municipal_mase_b.csv", infer_schema_length=None) | |
| 201 | + fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(5.2, 3.0)) | |
| 202 | + for m in ["lightgbm_panel", "qanss", "ridge_panel", "ar2_cell"]: | |
| 203 | + s = d.filter(pl.col("model") == m)["mase"].to_numpy(); ax.hist(s, bins=np.linspace(0.4, 1.6, 31), histtype="step", lw=1.4, color=COL.get(m, "#999"), label=LAB.get(m, m)) | |
| 204 | + ax.axvline(1, color=INK2, lw=0.6, ls="--"); ax.set_xlabel("MASE relative to no change, h = 3 (192 municipal cells)"); ax.set_ylabel("Cells"); ax.legend(fontsize=6.5); save(fig, "fig_mun_distribution") | |
| 205 | + | |
| 206 | + | |
| 207 | +if __name__ == "__main__": | |
| 208 | + for fn in [fig_error_time, fig_regimes, fig_decline_reliability, fig_mun_distribution]: | |
| 209 | + try: fn() | |
| 210 | + except Exception as ex: | |
| 211 | + import traceback; traceback.print_exc() | |
| 149 | 212 | |